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File:  ltr to Congress, 76 scientists 2012.pdfResource Type: Letters

File:  ltr to Congress, 76 scientists 2012.pdfResource Type: Letters

While oil grabs most of the headlines, Shell’s ambitions in Brazil extend far beyond offshore drilling rigs and deep-water crude.

This week, fresh news reports from Investing.com, Yahoo Finance and other financial outlets have highlighted renewed focus on Raízen, the giant Brazilian biofuels company jointly controlled by Shell and the Brazilian conglomerate Cosan.

The message from Shell appears clear: even as it expands oil production in Brazil’s offshore pre-salt fields, the company is also reinforcing its position in one of the world’s largest ethanol and bioenergy businesses.

In other words, Shell wants to sell you both the fossil fuel and the plant-based alternative.

A Biofuel Giant Few Outside Brazil Know

Raízen may not be a household name globally, but it is one of the largest energy companies in Latin America.

Formed in 2011 as a joint venture between Shell and Cosan, the company has grown into a massive integrated bioenergy operation.

Today Raízen operates:

• Dozens of ethanol production plants

• One of the largest sugar-cane processing networks in the world

• Thousands of Shell-branded service stations across Brazil

• Major bioenergy and electricity generation facilities.

Brazil’s unique agricultural and energy landscape — particularly its vast sugar-cane industry — makes the country the global leader in ethanol fuel production.

And Raízen sits right at the centre of that ecosystem.

Shell’s Strategic Bet on Biofuels

Recent reports from financial news platforms including Investing.com and Yahoo Finance highlight how Raízen remains a key part of Shell’s broader energy strategy in Brazil.

The company is heavily involved in second-generation ethanol (E2G) — a more advanced biofuel produced from agricultural waste such as sugar-cane straw and bagasse.

These fuels are often promoted as a lower-carbon alternative to conventional petrol because they utilise plant residues rather than food crops.

Shell has repeatedly presented biofuels as one of the pillars of its energy transition strategy, alongside LNG, hydrogen and renewable power.

Brazil — with its huge sugar-cane harvest — provides the perfect laboratory for that strategy.

A Tough Year for Raízen

But the Raízen story is not entirely sweet.

Recent financial coverage suggests the company has faced significant market pressure, including volatility in sugar prices, high debt levels and investor concerns about profitability.

Shares in Raízen have fallen sharply over the past year, prompting speculation about potential restructuring or strategic changes.

Shell, as a major shareholder in the joint venture, has reportedly been exploring ways to strengthen the company’s financial position and stabilise its operations.

Industry analysts say that could involve operational adjustments, new financing arrangements, or deeper strategic integration with Shell’s broader energy portfolio.

Sugar, Ethanol — and Global Energy Politics

The significance of Raízen goes beyond Brazil.

Biofuels are increasingly seen by governments as a way to reduce emissions from sectors that are difficult to electrify — such as aviation, shipping and heavy transport.

Shell has been investing heavily in biofuel supply chains, including sustainable aviation fuel (SAF).

Brazil’s ethanol industry could therefore play an increasingly important role in the global energy system.

Yet critics argue that biofuels also raise difficult questions about land use, agriculture and environmental impact.

Large-scale sugar-cane cultivation can place pressure on ecosystems and water resources, while expanding biofuel production may compete with food supply or encourage deforestation.

As with many aspects of the energy transition, the reality is more complicated than the marketing slogans.

Investors Watching Closely

Shell’s involvement in Raízen is also closely watched by the company’s powerful investor base.

The oil major’s largest institutional shareholders — including BlackRock, Vanguard and State Street — hold enormous stakes across the global energy sector and have increasingly demanded credible transition strategies from oil companies.

Biofuels provide one way for companies like Shell to present a lower-carbon growth narrative while continuing to operate large fossil-fuel businesses.

It is, from a corporate strategy perspective, a rather elegant balancing act.

Brazil: Shell’s Energy Laboratory

Taken together with Shell’s booming offshore oil investments and its expanding ethanol empire, Brazil is becoming one of the most strategically important countries in the company’s global portfolio.

Few places offer the same combination of:

• giant offshore oil reserves

• a mature biofuels industry

• large domestic energy demand

• and a stable regulatory environment.

For Shell, Brazil increasingly looks like an energy laboratory for the 21st century.

One where crude oil, ethanol, LNG and renewable power all compete — and occasionally cooperate — in the same market.

Whether that ultimately leads to a cleaner energy system remains open to debate.

But one thing is certain.

Wherever energy markets evolve next, Shell intends to be involved.

DISCLAIMER

This article is commentary and analysis based on publicly available reporting, including recent financial news coverage from Investing.com, Yahoo Finance and other outlets. It is intended for journalistic discussion purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal or investment advice.

Shell Doubles Down on Brazil’s Sugar-Fuel Empire: Raízen Back in the Spotlight was first posted on March 6, 2026 at 8:56 pm.
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While politicians talk endlessly about climate targets and energy transitions, the oil industry tends to operate on a much simpler principle: follow the barrels.

And right now, Shell believes those barrels increasingly lie beneath the Atlantic waters off Brazil.

According to a Reuters report, Shell’s Brazilian chief has described the country’s oil sector as presenting an “enormous opportunity” for investment and expansion. (Sahm)

The comment came amid heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, which have once again reminded energy companies of the advantages of producing oil in politically stable regions.

Brazil, it turns out, looks very attractive.

When Geopolitics Boosts Oil Investment

Speaking in Rio de Janeiro, Shell Brazil CEO Cristiano Pinto da Costa said global tensions — including conflict involving Iran — could push investors toward Brazil’s oil sector.

“The U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran presents Brazil with an ‘enormous opportunity’ to attract investments to develop its oil assets,” he said. (Sahm)

Brazil’s political stability and reputation as a reliable oil producer give it a competitive advantage compared with other major hydrocarbon regions, he added. (Sahm)

In other words, when the world’s most volatile oil region starts looking even more volatile than usual, oil companies start scanning the map for somewhere calmer to drill.

Brazil fits the bill.

Shell’s Brazilian Expansion Strategy

Shell has been quietly transforming Brazil into one of the pillars of its global oil portfolio.

The company has dramatically expanded its exploration footprint in recent years.

“We went from having 10 to 15 blocks in 2021 to having 50 exploratory blocks in our portfolio today. This was a conscious strategic decision,” Pinto da Costa said. (Sahm)

Last year alone, Shell invested 12.5 billion reais (about $2.4 billion) in Brazil — one of the largest investments the company has made in any single country. (Sahm)

Production has followed suit.

Shell said it reached a record output of about 496,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day in Brazil in February 2026. (Sahm)

For a company constantly searching for new reserves to replace declining production elsewhere, those numbers matter.

Quite a lot.

The Pre-Salt Jackpot

Much of the excitement revolves around Brazil’s deep-water “pre-salt” oil fields, vast reservoirs trapped beneath thick layers of salt beneath the seabed.

These discoveries over the past two decades have transformed Brazil into one of the world’s fastest-growing offshore oil provinces.

The fields are technologically challenging and enormously expensive to develop — but they can also produce huge volumes of oil for decades.

Shell is already heavily involved in several of these projects alongside Brazil’s state oil company Petrobras and other partners.

The company is also developing new assets such as the Orca field, part of its broader effort to expand deep-water production in the region. (Sahm)

In practical terms, Brazil has become one of the most important engines of Shell’s global oil production.

Investors Love Deepwater Oil

There is another reason why Brazil is attracting so much attention from oil majors.

Deepwater projects, once operational, tend to produce large volumes of oil at relatively low operating costs — making them extremely profitable when global oil prices rise.

That profitability matters to Shell’s biggest shareholders.

The company’s investor base includes giant asset managers such as BlackRock, Vanguard and State Street, whose funds depend heavily on the steady dividend streams produced by global oil and gas projects.

And despite years of climate rhetoric, Shell continues to return tens of billions of dollars to shareholders through dividends and share buybacks.

Oil fields like those off Brazil’s coast help make that possible.

Climate Promises vs Fossil Fuel Reality

All of this raises an obvious question.

Shell, like most major oil companies, says it supports the transition to lower-carbon energy.

Yet it is simultaneously expanding investments in long-life fossil fuel projects — projects that could produce oil well into the 2040s or even 2050s.

Brazil’s offshore oil boom is a prime example of this contradiction.

On one hand, governments and corporations promise decarbonisation.

On the other, they continue developing some of the largest new oil provinces on the planet.

For the oil industry, however, the logic is straightforward: global demand for oil remains enormous.

And as long as that demand exists, companies will compete aggressively to supply it.

Brazil: The Next Oil Superpower?

With its vast offshore resources, political stability, and growing technical expertise, Brazil is increasingly viewed by the industry as one of the most important oil frontiers of the 21st century.

Shell clearly intends to be at the centre of that story.

Whether the world actually needs more oil from deep beneath the Atlantic is another question entirely.

But from Shell’s perspective, the opportunity — as its own executive put it — is “enormous.”

DISCLAIMER

This article is commentary and analysis based on publicly available reporting and historical information, including reporting by Reuters. It is intended for journalistic discussion purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or legal advice.

Crisis in the Middle East, Opportunity in Brazil: Shell Eyes a Fossil Fuel Bonanza was first posted on March 6, 2026 at 8:31 pm.
©2018 "Royal Dutch Shell Plc .com". Use of this feed is for personal non-commercial use only. If you are not reading this article in your feed reader, then the site is guilty of copyright infringement. Please contact me at john@shellnews.net

For years, Venezuela was the oil industry’s forbidden zone — a country with the largest proven oil reserves on Earth but locked behind layers of sanctions, political turmoil and diplomatic brinkmanship.

Now the door is creaking open again.

Recent reporting by Upstream Online and other energy news outlets indicates that Shell has confirmed it is preparing to move forward with Venezuelan energy opportunities, following major shifts in U.S. sanctions policy that now allow international oil companies to negotiate deals with the country’s state oil company, PDVSA. (upstreamonline.com)

For Shell, this signals something remarkable: a return to a country that once epitomised geopolitical risk — but also offers one of the most enticing hydrocarbon prizes on the planet.

Washington Opens the Door

The catalyst for Shell’s renewed interest is a dramatic change in U.S. policy.

Earlier in 2026, the U.S. Treasury issued licences allowing companies such as Shell, BP, Chevron, Eni and Repsol to negotiate contracts and investments in Venezuela’s oil and gas sector. (upstreamonline.com)

These licences allow the companies to explore, develop and produce hydrocarbons in partnership with PDVSA, although transactions must remain subject to U.S. legal oversight and compliance rules.

For the oil industry, the message from Washington was unmistakable: Venezuela — long isolated by sanctions — may once again be open for business.

The Dragon Gas Prize

At the centre of Shell’s Venezuelan ambitions sits the Dragon offshore gas field, located near the maritime border with Trinidad and Tobago.

The project has been discussed for years but repeatedly stalled by sanctions and political uncertainty. If revived, Dragon could provide a crucial new gas supply for Trinidad’s LNG and petrochemical industry, which has been struggling with declining domestic production.

Shell has previously targeted first gas from the Dragon field around 2026, with production intended to flow to Trinidad’s energy infrastructure. (offshore-technology.com)

For Trinidad, the project could stabilise a key export sector.

For Shell, it represents a potentially lucrative foothold in a country that contains vast untapped energy resources.

The World’s Biggest Oil Reserves — Still Waiting

Venezuela holds an estimated 300 billion barrels of proven oil reserves, the largest in the world. (World Oil)

Yet years of sanctions, underinvestment, and economic collapse have left much of the country’s oil infrastructure deteriorating or idle.

Industry analysts say rebuilding the sector could require tens of billions of dollars in new investment, alongside years of technical work to restore fields, pipelines and refineries. (woodmac.com)

In other words: the opportunity is enormous — but so are the risks.

Shell’s Strategic Calculation

Shell has not yet announced final investment decisions for Venezuelan projects, but CEO Wael Sawan has publicly acknowledged the company is evaluating multibillion-dollar offshore gas investments in the country. (OilPrice.com)

If approvals fall into place, these projects could move quickly.

“These are opportunities that could potentially be activated within months,” Sawan said when discussing potential Venezuelan developments. (The Guardian)

That kind of timeline is unusually brisk for an industry known for decade-long project cycles.

Investors, Dividends — and Fossil Fuel Expansion

Shell’s renewed interest in Venezuela comes as the company continues to prioritise shareholder returns.

Despite falling profits in recent years, the company has maintained large payouts, including billions in share buybacks and increased dividends. (The Guardian)

Large institutional investors — including BlackRock, Vanguard and State Street — remain among Shell’s biggest shareholders, and their funds depend heavily on the steady cash flows generated by global oil and gas production.

The result is a familiar tension.

While Shell and other oil majors publicly support the energy transition, they are simultaneously exploring new hydrocarbon opportunities — including some of the most politically complex oil provinces in the world.

A Return to a Complicated Country

Even with sanctions easing, Venezuela remains a challenging environment for international oil companies.

The country’s political stability, legal frameworks and infrastructure remain uncertain after years of economic crisis.

And the broader geopolitical context continues to shift rapidly.

Still, the prize is difficult for oil majors to ignore.

If the licences remain in place and negotiations proceed, Shell’s Venezuelan comeback could become one of the most consequential energy developments of the decade.

Or — given Venezuela’s history — the latest chapter in a project that never quite manages to happen.

Shell’s Venezuelan Comeback: Big Oil Returns to the World’s Most Sanctioned Oil Patch was first posted on March 6, 2026 at 8:13 pm.
©2018 "Royal Dutch Shell Plc .com". Use of this feed is for personal non-commercial use only. If you are not reading this article in your feed reader, then the site is guilty of copyright infringement. Please contact me at john@shellnews.net

Drought and heatwaves occurring together – known as “compound” events – have “surged” across the world since the early 2000s, a new study shows. 

Compound drought and heat events (CDHEs) can have devastating effects, creating the ideal conditions for intense wildfires, such as Australia’s “Black Summer” of 2019-20 where bushfires burned 24m hectares and killed 33 people.

The research, published in Science Advances, finds that the increase in CDHEs is predominantly being driven by events that start with a heatwave.

The global area affected by such “heatwave-led” compound events has more than doubled between 1980-2001 and 2002-23, the study says. 

The rapid increase in these events over the last 23 years cannot be explained solely by global warming, the authors note. 

Since the late 1990s, feedbacks between the land and the atmosphere have become stronger, making heatwaves more likely to trigger drought conditions, they explain.

One of the study authors tells Carbon Brief that societies must pay greater attention to compound events, which can “cause severe impacts on ecosystems, agriculture and society”.

Compound events

CDHEs are extreme weather events where drought and heatwave conditions occur simultaneously – or shortly after each other – in the same region.

These events are often triggered by large-scale weather patterns, such as “blocking” highs, which can produce “prolonged” hot and dry conditions, according to the study.

Prof Sang-Wook Yeh is one of the study authors and a professor at the Ewha Womans University in South Korea. He tells Carbon Brief:

“When heatwaves and droughts occur together, the two hazards reinforce each other through land-atmosphere interactions. This amplifies surface heating and soil moisture deficits, making compound events more intense and damaging than single hazards.”

CDHEs can begin with either a heatwave or a drought.

The sequence of these extremes is important, the study says, as they have different drivers and impacts.

For example, in a CDHE where the heatwave was the precursor, increased direct sunshine causes more moisture loss from soils and plants, leading to a drought. 

Conversely, in an event where the drought was the precursor, the lack of soil moisture means that less of the sun’s energy goes into evaporation and more goes into warming the Earth’s surface. This produces favourable conditions for heatwaves.

The study shows that the majority of CDHEs globally start out as a drought.

In recent years, there has been increasing focus on these events due to the devastating impact they have on agriculture, ecosystems and public health.

In Russia in the summer of 2010, a compound drought-heatwave event – and the associated wildfires – caused the death of nearly 55,000 people, the study notes.

Saint Basil’s Cathedral, on Red Square, in Moscow, was affected by smog during the fires in Russia in the summer of 2010. Credit: ZUMA Press, Inc. / Alamy Stock Photo

The record-breaking Pacific north-west “heat dome” in 2021 triggered extreme drought conditions that caused “significant declines” in wheat yields, as well as in barley, canola and fruit production in British Columbia and Alberta, Canada, says the study.

Increasing events

To assess how CDHEs are changing, the researchers use daily reanalysis data to identify droughts and heatwaves events. (Reanalysis data combines past observations with climate models to create a historical climate record.) Then, using an algorithm, they analyse how these events overlap in both time and space.

The study covers the period from 1980 to 2023 and the world’s land surface, excluding polar regions where CDHEs are rare.

The research finds that the area of land affected by CDHEs has “increased substantially” since the early 2000s.

Heatwave-led events have been the main contributor to this increase, the study says, with their spatial extent rising 110% between 1980-2001 and 2002-23, compared to a 59% increase for drought-led events.

The map below shows the global distribution of CDHEs over 1980-2023. The charts show the percentage of the land surface affected by a heatwave-led CDHE (red) or a drought-led CDHE (yellow) in a given year (left) and relative increase in each CDHE type (right).

The study finds that CDHEs have occurred most frequently in northern South America, the southern US, eastern Europe, central Africa and south Asia.

Spatial and temporal occurrence of compound drought and heatwave events over the study period from 1980 to 2023. The map (top) shows CDHEs around the world, with darker colours indicating higher frequency of occurrence. The chart in the bottom left shows how much land surface was affected by a compound event in a given year, where red accounts for heatwave-led events, and yellow, drought-led events. The chart in the bottom right shows the relative increase of each CDHE type in 2002-23 compared with 1980-2001. Source: Kim et al. (2026) Threshold passed

The authors explain that the increase in heatwave-led CDHEs is related to rising global temperatures, but that this does not tell the whole story.

In the earlier 22-year period of 1980-2001, the study finds that the spatial extent of heatwave-led CDHEs rises by 1.6% per 1C of global temperature rise. For the more-recent period of 2022-23, this increases “nearly eightfold” to 13.1%.

The change suggests that the rapid increase in the heatwave-led CDHEs occurred after the global average temperature “surpasse[d] a certain temperature threshold”, the paper says.

This threshold is an absolute global average temperature of 14.3C, the authors estimate (based on an 11-year average), which the world passed around the year 2000.

Investigating the recent surge in heatwave-leading CDHEs further, the researchers find a “regime shift” in land-atmosphere dynamics “toward a persistently intensified state after the late 1990s”.

In other words, the way that drier soils drive higher surface temperatures, and vice versa, is becoming stronger, resulting in more heatwave-led compound events.

Daily data

The research has some advantages over other previous studies, Yeh says. For instance, the new work uses daily estimations of CDHEs, compared to monthly data used in past research. This is “important for capturing the detailed occurrence” of these events, says Yeh. 

He adds that another advantage of their study is that it distinguishes the sequence of droughts and heatwaves, which allows them to “better understand the differences” in the characteristics of CDHEs.

Dr Meryem Tanarhte is a climate scientist at the University Hassan II in Morocco, and Dr Ruth Cerezo Mota is a climatologist and a researcher at the National Autonomous University of Mexico. Both scientists, who were not involved in the study, agree that the daily estimations give a clearer picture of how CDHEs are changing.

Cerezo-Mota adds that another major contribution of the study is its global focus. She tells Carbon Brief that in some regions, such as Mexico and Africa, there is a lack of studies on CDHEs:

“Not because the events do not occur, but perhaps because [these regions] do not have all the data or the expertise to do so.”

However, she notes that the reanalysis data used by the study does have limitations with how it represents rainfall in some parts of the world.

Compound impacts

The study notes that if CDHEs continue to intensify – particularly events where heatwaves are the precursors – they could drive declining crop productivity, increased wildfire frequency and severe public health crises.

These impacts could be “much more rapid and severe as global warming continues”, Yeh tells Carbon Brief.

Tanarhte notes that these events can be forecasted up to 10 days ahead in many regions. Furthermore, she says, the strongest impacts can be prevented “through preparedness and adaptation”, including through “water management for agriculture, heatwave mitigation measures and wildfire mitigation”.

The study recommends reassessing current risk management strategies for these compound events. It also suggests incorporating the sequences of drought and heatwaves into compound event analysis frameworks “to enhance climate risk management”.

Cerezo-Mota says that it is clear that the world needs to be prepared for the increased occurrence of these events. She tells Carbon Brief:

“These [risk assessments and strategies] need to be carried out at the local level to understand the complexities of each region.”

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The post Heatwaves driving recent ‘surge’ in compound drought and heat extremes appeared first on Carbon Brief.

Just when you thought one of the oil industry’s most notorious corruption sagas might finally fade into history, Nigeria has decided to give it a fresh coat of paint and a new corporate structure.

The controversial offshore oil licence OPL 245—long associated with bribery allegations, court battles across continents, and enough legal paperwork to deforest half the Niger Delta—has now been split into four new blocks under an arrangement involving Shell plc and Italy’s Eni, according to a report by Reuters. (MarketScreener)

The restructuring is designed to finally unlock production from one of Nigeria’s richest untapped oil reserves, bringing an end—at least in theory—to a saga that has embarrassed governments, prosecutors, and oil majors for nearly three decades.

Or, to put it less politely: the industry’s most infamous oil deal is getting a reboot.

The Deal That Would Not Die

According to Reuters, Nigeria has broken up the OPL 245 oil block into four new assets to be operated by Eni and Shell, potentially clearing the way for development of the massive deepwater field. (MarketScreener)

The move could finally enable production from a field estimated to contain billions of barrels of oil, which has sat idle for almost 30 years due to lawsuits, criminal investigations and political disputes. (TheCable)

In other words: one of Africa’s most valuable oil discoveries has spent nearly three decades in legal purgatory while lawyers, prosecutors, activists and oil executives argued about what exactly happened to the money.

A Brief History of a Very Expensive Mess

The story begins in 1998, when the Nigerian government awarded the OPL 245 licence to Malabu Oil & Gas, a company secretly controlled by the country’s then petroleum minister Dan Etete. (Wikipedia)

Yes—Nigeria’s oil minister awarded one of the country’s most valuable oil blocks to a company he effectively owned.

Things only became more surreal from there.

After years of disputes, Shell and Eni struck a deal in 2011 to acquire the licence for roughly $1.3 billion. (Wikipedia)

Investigators later alleged that around $1.1 billion of that payment was diverted to politicians and intermediaries. (Wikipedia)

The allegations triggered one of the largest international corruption investigations in the history of the oil industry, spanning Italy, Nigeria, the Netherlands, the United Kingdom, and the United States.

Shell and Eni consistently denied wrongdoing.

After years of court proceedings, an Italian court acquitted both companies and their executives in 2021, concluding there was no case to answer. (Wikipedia)

Legally speaking, the companies walked away.

Reputationally? The stain never quite washed off.

Nigeria’s Latest Attempt to Move On

The Nigerian government now appears determined to finally monetise the field.

Splitting OPL 245 into four blocks is intended to simplify development and remove the legal knots that have kept the oil underground for nearly three decades. (leadership.ng)

Final agreements for the restructured assets are expected to be signed as the country seeks to boost crude production and attract investment into its offshore sector. (TheCable)

For Shell and Eni, the prize is obvious: access to one of the largest undeveloped deepwater oil resources in West Africa.

For Nigeria’s government, the motivation is equally clear: oil revenue.

For critics, however, the optics are… complicated.

Climate Promises Meet Nine Billion Barrels

The timing of the deal is awkward.

Shell, like many oil majors, has spent the past few years promising a “transition to net zero” while simultaneously expanding its portfolio of long-life fossil fuel projects.

OPL 245—believed to contain around nine billion barrels of oil equivalent—would hardly qualify as a minor side project. (Wikipedia)

Developing the field would lock in decades of oil production at precisely the moment governments claim to be accelerating the global energy transition.

In fairness, Shell has never suggested it intends to stop producing oil anytime soon.

That would be bad for business—and even worse for the institutional investors that dominate its shareholder base.

Among the company’s largest investors are BlackRock, Vanguard and State Street, asset-management giants whose funds hold vast positions across the global fossil-fuel sector.

When the world’s largest money managers depend on oil dividends, the energy transition tends to proceed at a pace best described as… leisurely.

The Niger Delta: Still Waiting

Meanwhile, communities in the Niger Delta—home to decades of oil spills, pollution disputes and environmental litigation—may view the resurrection of OPL 245 with a degree of scepticism.

Shell has faced repeated legal actions over pollution claims in the region, including lawsuits brought by thousands of Nigerian residents seeking compensation and environmental cleanup. (Wikipedia)

Those cases are ongoing.

And while corporate press releases tend to emphasise “economic development,” locals often remember something slightly different: oil spills, flaring gas, and rivers that occasionally resemble motor oil.

Divide by Four, Carry the Controversy

So here we are.

A deal that once triggered global corruption investigations is now being reassembled—this time split into four convenient pieces.

Perhaps that makes it easier to develop.

Or perhaps it simply spreads the controversy around more evenly.

Either way, OPL 245 remains a reminder that in the oil industry, scandals rarely die.

They just get restructured.

DISCLAIMER

This article is commentary and opinion based on publicly available reporting and historical information. It is intended for journalistic and satirical discussion purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or investment advice.

OPL 245 Returns: The $1.3 Billion Scandal That Refuses to Stay Buried was first posted on March 6, 2026 at 7:53 pm.
©2018 "Royal Dutch Shell Plc .com". Use of this feed is for personal non-commercial use only. If you are not reading this article in your feed reader, then the site is guilty of copyright infringement. Please contact me at john@shellnews.net

This article Remembering civil rights icon Bernard LaFayette was originally published by Waging Nonviolence.

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Everyone lovingly called him “Doc.”

Today is my last morning waking up in Japan after an incredible 20-day trip through Taiwan and my homeland. This morning, I woke up to a flood of text messages telling me that Dr. Bernard LaFayette, who everyone lovingly called “Doc” had passed away.

Doc, in addition to being one of the most important teachers I have ever had, was a legend of the civil rights era — the first organizer to go to Selma, Alabama, co-founder of the Student Nonviolent Coordinating Committee, or SNCC, national coordinator of the original Poor People’s Campaign — as well as the co-author of the Kingian Nonviolence Conflict Reconciliation training philosophy and author of his personal memoir, “In Peace and Freedom: My Journey in Selma.”

Being on the other side of the world, moving through long days of travel and family schedules, I thought I would not have much time to process it. But today, on our last day here, we decided to let our daughter nap at home instead of going out. Suddenly I found myself with a couple of quiet hours to myself. In the stillness, memories of Doc began flowing, and I felt the urge to sit and share a few stories about the man so many of us loved.

Like so many wise elders like Desmond Tutu or the Dalai Lama, Doc had a childlike quality to him. He was always joyful and playful, almost carrying an innocent, naïve presence despite the violence he had lived through, experienced, and fought against — having been beaten and arrested dozens of times and surviving an assassination attempt. He had an unwavering hopefulness about him, a lightness that somehow coexisted with the immense history he carried.

After my first ever Kingian Nonviolence training, I was so inspired that I called him on the phone. I told him right then and there: “this is what I want to do for the rest of my life.”

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A few months later, I found myself attending the Kingian Nonviolence summer institute in Rhode Island, studying to become a certified trainer. This was where I first met Doc in person. Now, almost 17 years later, it is still what I am doing — pursuing a deeper understanding of the word nonviolence and what it means to become a better practitioner of it.

Each evening during the summer institute, he gave a lecture where I felt like I was trying to write down every word that came out of his mouth. Not only did that experience deeply ground me in a principled approach to nonviolence, but I was also blown away by how strategic he, and the leaders of the civil rights movement, were. It felt like all of the organizing I had done up to that point was being put to shame.

I remember him telling me that he and his colleagues would often plan to engage in civil disobedience on Friday afternoons, so that by the time they were getting booked in jail, the courts would be closed and the city would have to keep them over the weekend. This put additional pressure on them, since they would now have to house and feed dozens of students over the weekend.

He shared that when they held marches and they did not have a large number of participants, they would march two-by-two with a little bit of space between each pair to make the march look longer than it actually was.

I was clinging to every word, realizing that this tradition carried a depth of discipline and strategy that I had barely begun to understand.

Kazu Haga with Bernard LaFayette and David Jehnsen, the co-authors of the Kingian Nonviolence curriculum.

It was such an honor to hear his stories. Doc loved to tell stories. Once, he casually told us about eating ribs and playing pool with Dr. King — “Martin” he called him. Stories that collapsed the distance between the historical figures we read about in books and the real human relationships that shaped the movement.

I also had the honor of co-facilitating multiple workshops with him, including one in Santa Cruz, California. After the first day of that training, I found myself in his hotel room listening to stories late into the night. At some point, it was getting pretty late and his wife Kate had fallen asleep on his shoulders. I was also getting tired, so I remember looking over at my friends and saying something like, “It looks like Kate’s tired, so maybe we should get going.”

Doc immediately stopped me and said, “Oh no, it’s fine, it’s fine…” and just kept talking. For hours.

Elders can talk forever. But I loved that about him.

It was also sweet to witness his relationship with Kate, herself a civil rights icon. After all those years together, he still opened the door for her every time. They always held hands. She would tease him about the sweets he’s not supposed to be eating. There was such tenderness between them. It was a quiet, beautiful expression of the love that sustained them through a lifetime of struggle.

Many of his stories stayed with me, but one in particular always moved me deeply. On his first day organizing in Selma, he was beaten bloody. His white T-shirt was stained with blood, and he wore that same shirt for days afterward so people in Selma could see how serious his commitment was.

I remember him telling me of practicing the teachings of Rev. James Lawson, the original trainer of the movement, and trying to look compassionately into the eyes of his assailant even as he was being beaten.

That kind of courage is hard to comprehend.

I had the honor of being with him in Selma once. Doc was the first organizer from SNCC who wanted to try to organize the city where, as he always liked to remind us, “the white folks were too mean and the Black folks were too scared.”

Despite the fact that Selma was considered a “no-go zone” by national organizers, Doc went and set the stage for what would become Bloody Sunday and eventually the Voting Rights Act. Walking around Selma with him, I felt like I was in the presence of living history (people often referred to him as a national treasure). Every time we walked into a restaurant, people would recognize him and stand up to greet him. You could feel the weight and gravity of the history he carried with him.

And yet he never seemed heavy with it.

I also remember a meeting once with the executive committee of an organization I was part of. The committee, made up mostly of people my age, had gotten into a conflict. Doc happened to be sitting in on the meeting. He didn’t interrupt or intervene. He just sat there, watching and smiling quietly as the heated conversation unfolded.

At the end, we asked him if he had any thoughts.

He said that watching us reminded him of how he and his colleagues in the civil rights movement used to argue with each other all the time. He told us that movements spend about 40 percent of their time in conflict with each other, and that we shouldn’t worry about it too much.

It was grounding hear that sort of perspective from someone who’d lived through it all. Even the elders of the civil rights movement fought with each other. Conflict wasn’t a sign that something had gone wrong, it was simply part of the work of being human together while trying to change the world.

Doc carried history in his bones. He had lived through brutality and transformation, through moments that reshaped the course of a nation. And yet what I remember most about him is not just the history, it’s the spirit.

His joy.
His stories.
His hope.

His undying commitment to his golf game. For a period of his life, he refused to travel for workshops and speaking engagements unless he could fit in a round of golf. The only time I ever played a full round of golf was with him. And, to be completely honest and candid here, his game probably should have been better than it was given how much he played. But he still kept at it, with that ever-present smile.

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This morning in Japan, as messages kept arriving on my phone, I felt the loss of someone who shaped my life in ways I am still discovering. I am still clinging to the wisdom that came from listening to Doc. Sitting here in the quiet while my daughter naps in the next room, I am reminded that the work Doc gave his life to was never just about one generation.

It moves from hand to hand, story to story, teacher to student.

Doc helped pass that torch to so many of us. And now it is our responsibility to carry it forward — to keep studying, practicing, organizing and striving toward the Beloved Community he devoted his life to building.

One day, when my daughter is older, I hope I will be able to tell her stories about a man everyone called Doc. About his courage, his laughter, his hope, and the way he believed so deeply in the power of nonviolence.

What a gift it was to know and learn from him.

This article Remembering civil rights icon Bernard LaFayette was originally published by Waging Nonviolence.

A new analysislysis from the Center for Economic and Policy Research (CEPR) finds that this coming Monday (March 9) is the day that million-dollar earners stop contributing to Social Security – a milestone that serves as a reminder that the program’s finances could be greatly improved by lifting the cap on earnings.

While the vast majority of working people pay income and payroll taxes on all their earnings throughout the year, the Social Security payroll tax is capped at $184,500. Once a person’s wage and salary income reaches that taxable maximum, they stop paying into the program.

The amount of income above the cap has risen dramatically: in 1983, only 10 percent of income was above the cap, but today it is approaching 20 percent – another illustration of rising income inequality in the country.

Eliminating the cap on taxable earnings would go a long way towards affirming Social Security as a social insurance program, while also fortifying the program’s finances for current and future beneficiaries – an issue that has been a priority for many political leaders over several decades.

While there are always political discussions about how to strengthen Social Security’s finances, many of the prescriptions – like raising the retirement age – are regressive in nature, disproportionately harming working-class workers. Making all workers pay their fair share by eliminating the cap, though, would provide substantial additional revenue without harming workers or retirees.

“Allowing higher earners to stop contributing to Social Security early in the year is a policy choice that shortchanges the program,” said CEPR Labor and Disability Researcher Hayley Brown, who authored the new analysis. “The tax cap on earnings is at odds with the ethos of shared responsibility that underlies social insurance. Lawmakers should reinforce that sense of shared responsibility and the program’s solvency by eliminating the cap.”

Welcome to Carbon Brief’s DeBriefed. 
An essential guide to the week’s key developments relating to climate change.

This week Energy crisis

ENERGY SPIKE: US-Israeli attacks on Iran and subsequent counterattacks across the Middle East have sent energy prices “soaring”, according to Reuters. The newswire reported that the region “accounts for just under a third of global oil production and almost a fifth of gas”. The Guardian noted that shipping traffic through the strait of Hormuz, which normally ferries 20% of the world’s oil, “all but ground to a halt”. The Financial Times reported that attacks by Iran on Middle East energy facilities – notably in Qatar – triggered the “biggest rise in gas prices since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine”.

‘RISK’ AND ‘BENEFITS’: Bloomberg reported on increases in diesel prices in Europe and the US, speculating that rising fuel costs could be “a risk for president Donald Trump”. US gas producers are “poised to benefit from the big disruption in global supply”, according to CNBC. Indian government sources told the Economic Times that Russia is prepared to “fulfil India’s energy demands”. China Daily quoted experts who said “China’s energy security remains fundamentally unshaken”, thanks to “emergency stockpiles and a wide array of import channels”.

‘ESSENTIAL’ RENEWABLES: Energy analysts said governments should cut their fossil-fuel reliance by investing in renewables, “rather than just seeking non-Gulf oil and gas suppliers”, reported Climate Home News. This message was echoed by UK business secretary Peter Kyle, who said “doubling down on renewables” was “essential” amid “regional instability”, according to the Daily Telegraph.

China’s climate plan

PEAK COAL?: China has set out its next “five-year plan” at the annual “two sessions” meeting of the National People’s Congress, including its climate strategy out to 2030, according to the Hong Kong-based South China Morning Post. The plan called for China to cut its carbon emissions per unit of gross domestic product (GDP) by 17% from 2026 to 2030, which “may allow for continued increase in emissions given the rate of GDP growth”, reported Reuters. The newswire added that the plan also had targets to reach peak coal ​in the next five years and replace 30m tonnes per year of coal with renewables.

ACTIVE YET PRUDENT: Bloomberg described the new plan as “cautious”, stating that it “frustrat[es] hopes for tighter policy that would drive the nation to peak carbon emissions well before president Xi Jinping’s 2030 deadline”. Carbon Brief has just published an in-depth analysis of the plan. China Daily reported that the strategy “highlights measures to promote the climate targets of peaking carbon dioxide emissions before 2030”, which China said it would work towards “actively yet prudently”. 

Around the world

• EU RULES: The European Commission has proposed new “made in Europe” rules to support domestic low-carbon industries, “against fierce competition from China”, reported Agence France-Presse. Carbon Brief examined what it means for climate efforts.
• RECORD HEAT: The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has said there is a 50-60% chance that the El Niño weather pattern could return this year, amplifying the effect of global warming and potentially driving temperatures to “record highs”, according to Euronews.
• FLAGSHIP FUND: The African Development Bank’s “flagship clean energy fund” plans to more than double its financing to $2.5bn for African renewables over the next two years, reported the Associated Press.
• NO WITHDRAWAL: Vanuatu has defied US efforts to force the Pacific-island nation to drop a UN draft resolution calling on the world to implement a landmark International Court of Justice (ICJ) ruling on climate, according to the Guardian.

98

The number of nations that submitted their national reports on tackling nature loss to the UN on time – just half of the 196 countries that are part of the UN biodiversity treaty – according to analysis by Carbon Brief.

Latest climate research

• Sea levels are already “much higher than assumed” in most assessments of the threat posed by sea-level rise, due to “inadequate” modelling assumptions | Nature
• Accelerating human-caused global warming could see the Paris Agreement’s 1.5C limit crossed before 2030 | Geophysical Research Letters covered by Carbon Brief
• Future “super El Niño events” could “significantly lower” solar power generation due to a reduction in solar irradiance in key regions, such as California and east China | Communications Earth & Environment

(For more, see Carbon Brief’s in-depth daily summaries of the top climate news stories on Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday and Friday.)

Captured

UK greenhouse gas emissions in 2025 fell to 54% below 1990 levels, the baseline year for its legally binding climate goals, according to new Carbon Brief analysis. Over the same period, data from the World Bank shows that the UK’s economy has expanded by 95%, meaning that emissions have been decoupling from growth. 

Spotlight Bristol’s ‘pioneering’ community wind turbine 

Following the recent launch of the UK government’s local power plan, Carbon Brief visits one of the country’s community-energy success stories.

The Lawrence Weston housing estate is set apart from the main city of Bristol, wedged between the tree-lined grounds of a stately home and a sprawl of warehouses and waste incinerators. It is one of the most deprived areas in the city. 

Yet, just across the M5 motorway stands a structure that has brought the spoils of the energy transition directly to this historically forgotten estate – a 4.2 megawatt (MW) wind turbine.

The turbine is owned by local charity Ambition Lawrence Weston and all the profits from its electricity sales – around £100,000 a year – go to the community. In the UK’s local power plan, it was singled out by energy secretary Ed Miliband as a “pioneering” project.

‘Sustainable income’

On a recent visit to the estate by Carbon Brief, Ambition Lawrence Weston’s development manager, Mark Pepper, rattled off the story behind the wind turbine. 

In 2012, Pepper and his team were approached by the Bristol Energy Cooperative with a chance to get a slice of the income from a new solar farm. They jumped at the opportunity. 

“Austerity measures were kicking in at the time,” Pepper told Carbon Brief. “We needed to generate an income. Our own, sustainable income.”

With the solar farm proving to be a success, the team started to explore other opportunities. This began a decade-long process that saw them navigate the Conservative government’s “ban” on onshore wind, raise £5.5m in funding and, ultimately, erect the turbine in 2023. 

Today, the turbine generates electricity equivalent to Lawrence Weston’s 3,000 households and will save 87,600 tonnes of carbon dioxide (CO2) over its lifetime.

Ambition Lawrence Weston’s Mark Pepper and the wind turbine. Artwork: Josh Gabbatiss ‘Climate by stealth’

Ambition Lawrence Weston’s hub is at the heart of the estate and the list of activities on offer is seemingly endless: birthday parties, kickboxing, a library, woodworking, help with employment and even a pop-up veterinary clinic. All supported, Pepper said, with the help of a steady income from community-owned energy.

The centre itself is kitted out with solar panels, heat pumps and electric-vehicle charging points, making it a living advertisement for the net-zero transition. Pepper noted that the organisation has also helped people with energy costs amid surging global gas prices.

Gesturing to the England flags dangling limply on lamp posts visible from the kitchen window, he said:

“There’s a bit of resentment around immigration and scarcity of materials and provision, so we’re trying to do our bit around community cohesion.”

This includes supper clubs and an interfaith grand iftar during the Muslim holy month of Ramadan.

Anti-immigration sentiment in the UK has often gone hand-in-hand with opposition to climate action. Right-wing politicians and media outlets promote the idea that net-zero policies will cost people a lot of money – and these ideas have cut through with the public. 

Pepper told Carbon Brief he is sympathetic to people’s worries about costs and stressed that community energy is the perfect way to win people over:

“I think the only way you can change that is if, instead of being passive consumers…communities are like us and they’re generating an income to offset that.”

From the outset, Pepper stressed that “we weren’t that concerned about climate because we had other, bigger pressures”, adding:

“But, in time, we’ve delivered climate by stealth.”

Watch, read, listen

OIL WATCH: The Guardian has published a “visual guide” with charts and videos showing how the “escalating Iran conflict is driving up oil and gas prices”.

MURDER IN HONDURAS: Ten years on from the murder of Indigenous environmental justice advocate Berta Cáceres, Drilled asked why Honduras is still so dangerous for environmental activists.

TALKING WEATHER: A new film, narrated by actor Michael Sheen and titled You Told Us To Talk About the Weather, aimed to promote conversation about climate change with a blend of “poetry, folk horror and climate storytelling”.

Coming up

• 8 March: Colombia parliamentary election
• 9-19 March: 31st Annual Session of the International Seabed Authority, Kingston, Jamaica
• 11 March: UN Environment Programme state of finance for nature 2026 report launch

Pick of the jobs

• London School of Economics and Political Science, fellow in the social science of sustainability | Salary: £43,277-£51,714. Location: London
• NORCAP, innovative climate finance expert | Salary: Unknown. Location: Kyiv, Ukraine
• WBHM, environmental reporter | Salary: $50,050-$81,330. Location: Birmingham, Alabama, US
• Climate Cabinet, data engineer | Salary: hourly rate of $60-$120 per hour. Location: Remote anywhere in the US

DeBriefed is edited by Daisy Dunne. Please send any tips or feedback to debriefed@carbonbrief.org.

This is an online version of Carbon Brief’s weekly DeBriefed email newsletter. Subscribe for free here.

DeBriefed 27 February 2026: Trump’s fossil-fuel talk | Modi-Lula rare-earth pact | Is there a UK ‘greenlash’? 

DeBriefed

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27.02.26

DeBriefed 20 February 2026: EU’s ‘3C’ warning | Endangerment repeal’s impact on US emissions | ‘Tree invasion’ fuelled South America’s fires

DeBriefed

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20.02.26

DeBriefed 13 February 2026: Trump repeals landmark ‘endangerment finding’ | China’s emissions flatlining | UK’s ‘relentless rain’

DeBriefed

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13.02.26

DeBriefed 6 February 2026: US secret climate panel ‘unlawful’ | China’s clean energy boon | Can humans reverse nature loss?

DeBriefed

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06.02.26

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The post DeBriefed 6 March 2026: Iran energy crisis | China climate plan | Bristol’s ‘pioneering’ wind turbine appeared first on Carbon Brief.

Between 2021 and 2024, I had the honor of being the co-director of Stop the Money Pipeline alongside Jackie Fielder. In July 2024, with the full-throated support of all of us here, Jackie left Stop the Money Pipeline to run for a seat on the San Francisco Board of Supervisors.

Four months later, Jackie not only won her election, she crushed it ― winning a whopping 59.7% of the vote in San Francisco’s District 9.

Now, I’m so excited to share that Supervisor Fielder is planning to introduce a ballot measure that would tax some of San Francisco’s largest financial institutions to create a municipal public bank in the city.

A San Francisco public bank would be great for San Francisco. By providing low or no cost loans for affordable housing, public transportation, and small businesses, a public bank would help the city hit its climate goals and become a more sustainable, affordable, and thriving city.

As Jackie put it in this video announcing the next stage of the SF public bank campaign:

“Right now, Wall Street is in charge of our billions and billions of dollars. But if the public bank were our own bank, we can be in charge of our own money and where it’s being invested. Then, our money wouldn’t be going to industries like fossil fuels, weapons of war, and ICE detention centers. Instead, it’d be going into our own economy and things we actually need like affordable housing and small businesses.”

Creating a public bank, however, is no small feat. First, the State of California had to pass legislation legalizing the creation of municipal public banks. After years of advocacy, that happened in 2019, when the state passed the California Public Banking Act of 2019.

Even with this law on the books, however, the process remains complex. As this article in Mission Local, Jackie’s local paper, explains, setting up a San Francisco public bank will require $400 million in seed funding – that’s where the ballot initiative and the tax on large financial institutions come in.

If the November ballot measure passes, the money raised from the tax, which will be leveraged on credit card companies and other large financial institutions, will be used to set up what’s known as a “municipal financial corporation,” a kind of midway point to a full public bank that can issue loans but cannot take deposits.

All being well, this “municipal financial corporation” will start getting loans out the door in 2029. Only after it’s operated successfully for a few years, will the “municipal financial corporation” be able to apply to regulators to become a fully-fledged public bank in 2032.

Before any of that though, in order to pass in November, the public bank ballot initiative must win two-thirds of the vote.

In short, winning a public bank is no quick solution, or easy organizing effort. But ever since I first worked with Jackie, back in 2016, when we were fighting the financiers of the Dakota Access pipeline, that’s what I’ve admired about her: her ambition, and commitment to bringing about long-term change on a systems level.

And if San Francisco is successful in winning a public bank, it could be nationally important, too.

Globally, there are 586 public banks, managing some $35 trillion in assets. In many parts of the world, public banks play a key role in driving the energy transition, by providing low or no cost loans for projects that benefit people and the planet, such as affordable housing and large-scale renewable energy and public transportation projects.

However, there’s only one public bank in the United States, the Bank of North Dakota which was founded in 1919. There hasn’t been a single new public bank created in the United States in the one hundred and eight years since then.

But a public bank in San Francisco would change that. And who’s to say that what starts in San Francisco will stay there? The Bay Area is known, after all, for exporting its innovation around the world.

Often what’s exported around the world from the Bay Area is of dubious value to society―whether it’s social media disinformation or AI slop―but if the Bay Area’s next big export to the rest of the country is a model for how to set up and run a successful public bank, that will be an unalloyed good.

So, if you’re in the San Francisco Bay Area you’ll be hearing more about this from us in the coming months. But if you want to make sure you don’t miss a thing, and if you’re in the Bay Area: sign up here for updates & opportunities to plug into the campaign.

In Solidarity,
– Alec Connon, Stop the Money Pipeline coalition director

News & Updates from the Coalition

– No War, No Kings

 

As the Trump Administration launches a reckless, illegal, and deeply immoral war on Iran, it’s more important than ever that we demonstrate – to the country and the rest of the world – just how deeply unpopular Trump and the MAGA agenda truly is.

Our next big opportunity to do that is on March 28th for No Kings Day #3. The first two No Kings Days were two of the largest single-day mobilizations in American history.

Let’s make the next one even larger. Join a No Kings Day event near you on March 28th.

 

– Costco Has No Excuse Now

In February, we released the Better Options report, a first-of-its-kind report assessing the climate performance of the 20 largest credit card issuers in the United States.

The key findings? Eight of the financial institutions analyzed did not provide large-scale financing to the fossil fuel industry in the time period analyzed. This means that companies like Costco have no excuse now: they need to find a better partner for their co-branded credit card than Citigroup, the world’s second-largest funder of fossil fuel expansion.

Join the campaign here. And read about the campaign in the news: “New climate-finance campaign targets Costco’s partnership with Citibank.”

– Shifting Politics Means Shifting Strategy

In 2024, our bank campaigns saw real progress. That year, Citigroup – our primary target – committed to end financing for new oil and gas projects in the Amazon and implemented a goal of reducing their oil and gas financing by 29% by 2030.

But when Trump was elected, major banks started backtracking on their climate commitments. That meant we had to change our strategy.

In a recent headline article in Bloomberg, I talked about what some of those strategy changes have and should look like. Read the full article here, “Wall Street’s Oil Deals Have Climate Activists Resorting to New Tactics.”

– Insure our Communities campaign gallops along

The Insure Our Communities Act is gaining momentum in New York.

After the bill’s prime sponsor left the legislature, we’re stoked that Senator Nathalia Fernandez has agreed to become the bill’s new prime sponsor in the Senate! As a member of the Senate Insurance Committee, Senator Fernandez is well-placed to help the bill advance.

If this bill passes, it would prohibit New York-licensed insurers from providing insurance to new coal, oil, and gas projects anywhere – an impact that would be felt globally.

So, if you’re in New York, check out the campaign website and get involved:

 www.InsureOurCommunitiesNY.com 

 

– Confronting Big Oil in Houston, TX.

 

Every year, fossil fuel corporations, Wall Street financiers, and government officials convene in Houston for CERA Week, where they plot out how they can keep profiting from fossil fuels, even as frontline communities face toxic air and the brunt of climate chaos.

This year, dozens of organizations are coming together for “Confronting CERA Week”. Over three days, there will be workshops and skillshares, art builds, community events, and actions.

Plug into the Confronting CERA Week organizing in Houston this March 21 – 23.

– Gulf South Communities file Human Right Grievance Against Major Insurer

Last week, frontline communities in Louisiana and Japan joined our partners at Rainforest Action Network and filed an official human rights grievance with the insurance company, Tokio Marine, regarding its coverage for Venture Global’s risky LNG operations. This is a major move to expose the human rights abuses that follow in the wake of the LNG buildout in the Gulf South, and elsewhere.

Read more about the Human Rights Grievance filed with Tokio Marine.

– First-of-its-kind Climate Risk Lawsuit Filed

This week, a landmark new class action lawsuit was filed against one of the world’s largest real estate corporations, Cushman & Wakefield, alleging that its retirement plan managers failed to properly manage climate risks to workers’ hard-earned savings. The legal challenge, filed by ClientEarth and Cohen Milstein Sellers & Toll, is the first of its kind and, if successful, could set an important precedent for addressing climate risks to millions of American workers’ deferred wages.

Read about it in the Financial Times (if you hit a paywall, view the article here), or amplify the news using this toolkit from our partner at Stand.earth. Wanna learn more? Register for the legal briefing on March 25th.

– Federal Court Strikes Down Texas’ Anti-Climate Attacks on Banks

Good news out of Texas, where a judge has struck down Texas’s 2021 “anti-ESG” law that directed the state government to boycott financial institutions that took common sense steps to address the climate crisis.

The Texas law was the high-point of the so-called “anti-ESG movement” that punished banks and investors for taking action on fossil fuels. The court’s findings are a win for the climate, and for commonsense.

– Several Ways To Make Fossil Fuel Companies Pay

To kick off the state legislative session, our friends at the Make Polluters Pay coalition held a week of action. In all, there were 37 events across 14 states, advocating for bills to make the fossil fuel industry pay for the mess they have created, based on Vermont and New York’s climate superfund bills, which were passed in 2024.

Across the country, a second creative way to put the fossil fuel industry on the hook for paying for climate programs is also gaining steam. In California, New York, and Hawaii there are bills in play that would authorize state attorneys generals to sue fossil fuel companies on behalf of residents whose insurance premiums have soared amid climate disasters. The Guardian had an excellent piece about this strategy here.

– Pushing Democrats to Hold Firm on ICE Accountability

We’re now nearly three weeks into the government shutdown of the Department of Homeland Security. A shutdown like this is not something to take lightly. It means thousands of workers furloughed, including workers from critical agencies like FEMA.

But this is also the Democrats only leverage to win real changes from ICE, an increasingly paramilitary force accountable only to Donald Trump. Democrats must use this leverage.

Already, 6,000 of you on this list have sent emails to your Senators, and hundreds of you have made calls. If you haven’t done so yet, contact your Senator here and urge them: Hold the line and hold ICE accountable.

– Epstein and the World’s Largest Funder of Fossil Fuels

One thing I am pretty sure we haven’t talked about enough is the deep ties between sex trafficker and pedophile Jeffrey Epstein and JPMorgan Chase, the world’s largest funder of fossil fuels.

In 2023, JPMorgan CEO, Jamie Dimon, testified under oath that he’d never heard of Jeffrey Epstein until 2019. But one of his top lieutenants later claimed that he’d talked to Dimon years earlier about Epstein. And we now know that a top executive at the bank, Mary Erdoes, who is often touted as potential next CEO, was deeply involved in Epstein’s account, and long knew about his conviction for soliciting sex from fourteen-year-old girls.

In the UK, members of the Royal Family and senior politicians have been arrested in the wake of the release of the Epstein Files. In the US? Not so much. Read more about how the world’s largest funder of fossil fuels also enabled Epstein’s crimes in the Guardian, the New York Times, and Anand Giridharadas’s The Ink.

– and to close, a WIN in Davis, CA

After a months-long campaign waged by the intrepid Cath Posehn, the City of Davis, CA, voted to sever the city’s engagement with the Musk Empire — committing to do no business with Tesla, SpaceX, X, Neuralink, xAI, The Boring Company, and Tesla Robotaxis. No new contracts. No new purchases. No Musk platforms in official city communications.

We’ve been honored to support Cath in her work to achieve this win, and you can read all about how she did it here: One protestor got her city to divest from Elon Musk – here’s what she can teach the rest of us.

And to finish us off, here’s a photo of Cath, turning away from the lectern at Davis City Council, moments before the council voted to pass the resolution she wrote and spent months fighting for. This is what democracy looks like.

The post March Newsletter: Public banks? Oh yes. appeared first on Stop the Money Pipeline.

National Nurses United announced its endorsement of Daniel Biss for Illinois’ 9th Congressional District. Throughout his decades of service as an educator, activist, and elected leader, he has proven that he is ready to put in the work to move forward with transformative legislation that will unrig our economy, guarantee health care to everyone free at the point of service, and provide the tools for workers to organize without interference from their bosses.

China’s leadership has published a draft of its 15th five-year plan setting the strategic direction for the nation out to 2030, including support for clean energy and energy security.

The plan sets a target to cut China’s “carbon intensity” by 17% over the five years from 2026-30, but also changes the basis for calculating this key climate metric.

The plan continues to signal support for China’s clean-energy buildout and, in general, contains no major departures from the country’s current approach to the energy transition.

The government reaffirms support for several clean-energy industries, ranging from solar and electric vehicles (EVs) through to hydrogen and “new-energy” storage.

The plan also emphasises China’s willingness to steer climate governance and be seen as a provider of “global public goods”, in the form of affordable clean-energy technologies.

However, while the document says it will “promote the peaking” of coal and oil use, it does not set out a timeline and continues to call for the “clean and efficient” use of coal. 

This shows that tensions remain between China’s climate goals and its focus on energy security, leading some analysts to raise concerns about its carbon-cutting ambition.

Below, Carbon Brief outlines the key climate change and energy aspects of the plan, including targets for carbon intensity, non-fossil energy and forestry.

Note: this article is based on a draft published on 5 March and will be updated if any significant changes are made in the final version of the plan, due to be released at the close next week of the “two sessions” meeting taking place in Beijing.  

• What is China’s 15th five-year plan?
• What does the plan say about China’s climate action?
• What is China’s new CO2 intensity target?
• Does the plan encourage further clean-energy additions?
• What does the plan signal about coal?
• How will China approach global climate governance in the next five years? 
• What else does the plan cover?

What is China’s 15th five-year plan?

Five-year plans are one of the most important documents in China’s political system. 

Addressing everything from economic strategy to climate policy, they outline the planned direction for China’s socio-economic development in a five-year period. The 15th five-year plan covers 2026-30.

These plans include several “main goals”. These are largely quantitative indicators that are seen as particularly important to achieve and which provide a foundation for subsequent policies during the five-year period.

The table below outlines some of the key “main goals” from the draft 15th five-year plan.

CategoryIndicatorIndicator in 2025Target by 2030Cumulative target over 2026-2030Characteristic Economic developmentGross domestic product (GDP) growth (%)5Maintained within a reasonable range and proposed annually as appropriate.
Anticipatory ‘Green and low-carbonReduction in CO2 emissions per unit of GDP (%)17.717Binding Share of non-fossil energy in total energy consumption (%)21.725Binding Security guaranteeComprehensive energy production
capacity (100m tonnes of
standard coal equivalent)
51.358Binding Select list of targets highlighted in the “main goals” section of the draft 15th five-year plan. Source: Draft 15th five-year plan.

Since the 12th five-year plan, covering 2011-2015, these “main goals” have included energy intensity and carbon intensity as two of five key indicators for “green ecology”.

The previous five-year plan, which ran from 2021-2025, introduced the idea of an absolute “cap” on carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, although it did not provide an explicit figure in the document. This has been subsequently addressed by a policy on the “dual-control of carbon” issued in 2024. 

The latest plan removes the energy-intensity goal and elevates the carbon-intensity goal, but does not set an absolute cap on emissions (see below).

It covers the years until 2030, before which China has pledged to peak its carbon emissions. (Analysis for Carbon Brief found that emissions have been “flat or falling” since March 2024.)

The plans are released at the two sessions, an annual gathering of the National People’s Congress (NPC) and the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC). This year, it runs from 4-12 March.

The plans are often relatively high-level, with subsequent topic-specific five-year plans providing more concrete policy guidance. 

Policymakers at the National Energy Agency (NEA) have indicated that in the coming years they will release five sector-specific plans for 2026-2030, covering topics such as the “new energy system”, electricity and renewable energy. 

There may also be specific five-year plans covering carbon emissions and environmental protection, as well as the coal and nuclear sectors, according to analysts.

Other documents published during the two sessions include an annual government work report, which outlines key targets and policies for the year ahead. 

The gathering is attended by thousands of deputies – delegates from across central and local governments, as well as Chinese Communist party members, members of other political parties, academics, industry leaders and other prominent figures.

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What does the plan say about China’s climate action?

Achieving China’s climate targets will remain a key driver of the country’s policies in the next five years, according to the draft 15th five-year plan.

It lists the “acceleration” of China’s energy transition as a “major achievement” in the 14th five-year plan period (2021-2025), noting especially how clean-power capacity had overtaken fossil fuels.

The draft says China will “actively and steadily advance and achieve carbon peaking”, with policymakers continuing to strike a balance between building a “green economy” and ensuring stability.

Climate and environment continues to receive its own chapter in the plan. However, the framing and content of this chapter has shifted subtly compared with previous editions, as shown in the table below. For example, unlike previous plans, the first section of this chapter focuses on China’s goal to peak emissions. 

11th five-year plan (2006-2010)12th five-year plan (2011-2015)
13th five-year plan (2016-2020)14th five-year plan (2021-2025)15th five-year plan (2026-2030) Chapter titlePart 6: Build a resource-efficient and environmentally-friendly societyPart 6: Green development, building a resource-efficient and environmentally friendly societyPart 10: Ecosystems and the environmentPart 11: Promote green development and facilitate the harmonious coexistence of people and naturePart 13: Accelerating the comprehensive green transformation of economic and social development to build a beautiful China SectionsDeveloping a circular economyActively respond to global climate changeAccelerate the development of functional zonesImprove the quality and stability of ecosystemsActively and steadily advancing and achieving carbon peaking Protecting and restoring natural ecosystemsStrengthen resource conservation and managementPromote economical and intensive resource useContinue to improve environmental qualityContinuously improving environmental quality Strengthening environmental protectionVigorously develop the circular economyStep up comprehensive environmental governanceAccelerate the green transformation of the development modelEnhancing the diversity, stability, and sustainability of ecosystems Enhancing resource managementStrengthen environmental protection effortsIntensify ecological conservation and restorationAccelerating the formation of green production and lifestyles Rational utilisation of marine and climate resourcesPromoting ecological conservation and restorationRespond to global climate change Strengthen the development of water conservancy and disaster prevention and mitigation systemsImprove mechanisms for ensuring ecological security Develop green and environmentally-friendly industries Title and main sections of the climate and environment-focused chapters in the last five five-year plans. Source: China’s 11th, 12th, 13th, 14th and 15th five-year plans.

The climate and environment chapter in the latest plan calls for China to “balance [economic] development and emission reduction” and “ensure the timely achievement of carbon peak targets”.

Under the plan, China will “continue to pursue” its established direction and objectives on climate, Prof Li Zheng, dean of the Tsinghua University Institute of Climate Change and Sustainable Development (ICCSD), tells Carbon Brief.

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What is China’s new CO2 intensity target?

In the lead-up to the release of the plan, analysts were keenly watching for signals around China’s adoption of a system for the “dual-control of carbon”.

This would combine the existing targets for carbon intensity – the CO2 emissions per unit of GDP – with a new cap on China’s total carbon emissions. This would mark a dramatic step for the country, which has never before set itself a binding cap on total emissions.

Policymakers had said last year that this framework would come into effect during the 15th five-year plan period, replacing the previous system for the “dual-control of energy”. 

However, the draft 15th five-year plan does not offer further details on when or how both parts of the dual-control of carbon system will be implemented. Instead, it continues to focus on carbon intensity targets alone.

Looking back at the previous five-year plan period, the latest document says China had achieved a carbon-intensity reduction of 17.7%, just shy of its 18% goal.

This is in contrast with calculations by Lauri Myllyvirta, lead analyst at the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA), which had suggested that China had only cut its carbon intensity by 12% over the past five years.

At the time it was set in 2021, the 18% target had been seen as achievable, with analysts telling Carbon Brief that they expected China to realise reductions of 20% or more.

However, the government had fallen behind on meeting the target.

Last year, ecology and environment minister Huang Runqiu attributed this to the Covid-19 pandemic, extreme weather and trade tensions. He said that China, nevertheless, remained “broadly” on track to meet its 2030 international climate pledge of reducing carbon intensity by more than 65% from 2005 levels. 

Myllyvirta tells Carbon Brief that the newly reported figure showing a carbon-intensity reduction of 17.7% is likely due to an “opportunistic” methodological revision. The new methodology now includes industrial process emissions – such as cement and chemicals – as well as the energy sector.

(This is not the first time China has redefined a target, with regulators changing the methodology for energy intensity in 2023.)

For the next five years, the plan sets a target to reduce carbon intensity by 17%, slightly below the previous goal. 

However, the change in methodology means that this leaves space for China’s overall emissions to rise by “3-6% over the next five years”, says Myllyvirta. In contrast, he adds that the original methodology would have required a 2% fall in absolute carbon emissions by 2030.

The dashed lines in the chart below show China’s targets for reducing carbon intensity during the 12th, 13th, 14th and 15th five-year periods, while the bars show what was achieved under the old (dark blue) and new (light blue) methodology.    

Dashed lines: China’s carbon-intensity targets during the 12th, 13th, 14th and 15th five-year plan periods. Bars: China’s achieved carbon-intensity reductions according to either the old methodology (dark blue) and the new one (light blue). The achieved reductions during the 12th and 13th five-year plans are from contemporaneous government statistics and may be revised in future. The reduction figures for the 14th five-year plan period are sourced from government statistics for the new methodology and analysis by CREA under the old methodology. Sources: Five-year plans and Carbon Brief.

The carbon-intensity target is the “clearest signal of Beijing’s climate ambition”, says Li Shuo, director at the Asia Society Policy Institute’s (ASPI) China climate hub. 

It also links directly to China’s international pledge – made in 2021 – to cut its carbon intensity to more than 65% below 2005 levels by 2030.

To meet this pledge under the original carbon-intensity methodology, China would have needed to set a target of a 23% reduction within the 15th five-year plan period. However, the country’s more recent 2035 international climate pledge, released last year, did not include a carbon-intensity target.

As such, ASPI’s Li interprets the carbon-intensity target in the draft 15th five-year plan as a “quiet recalibration” that signals “how difficult the original 2030 goal has become”.

Furthermore, the 15th five-year plan does not set an absolute emissions cap.  

This leaves “significant ambiguity” over China’s climate plans, says campaign group 350 in a press statement reacting to the draft plan. It explains:

“The plan was widely expected to mark a clearer transition from carbon-intensity targets toward absolute emissions reductions…[but instead] leaves significant ambiguity about how China will translate record renewable deployment into sustained emissions cuts.”

Myllyvirta tells Carbon Brief that this represents a “continuation” of the government’s focus on scaling up clean-energy supply while avoiding setting “strong measurable emission targets”.

He says that he would still expect to see absolute caps being set for power and industrial sectors covered by China’s emissions trading scheme (ETS). In addition, he thinks that an overall absolute emissions cap may still be published later in the five-year period. 

Despite the fact that it has yet to be fully implemented, the switch from dual-control of energy to dual-control of carbon represents a “major policy evolution”, Ma Jun, director of the Institute of Public and Environmental Affairs (IPE), tells Carbon Brief. He says that it will allow China to “provide more flexibility for renewable energy expansion while tightening the net on fossil-fuel reliance”.

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Does the plan encourage further clean-energy additions?

“How quickly carbon intensity is reduced largely depends on how much renewable energy can be supplied,” says Yao Zhe, global policy advisor at Greenpeace East Asia, in a statement.

The five-year plan continues to call for China’s development of a “new energy system that is clean, low-carbon, safe and efficient” by 2030, with continued additions of “wind, solar, hydro and nuclear power”.

In line with China’s international pledge, it sets a target for raising the share of non-fossil energy in total energy consumption to 25% by 2030, up from just under 21.7% in 2025.

The development of “green factories” and “zero-carbon [industrial] parks” has been central to many local governments’ strategies for meeting the non-fossil energy target, according to industry news outlet BJX News. A call to build more of these zero-carbon industrial parks is listed in the five-year plan. 

Prof Pan Jiahua, dean of Beijing University of Technology’s Institute of Ecological Civilization, tells Carbon Brief that expanding demand for clean energy through mechanisms such as “green factories” represents an increasingly “bottom-up” and “market-oriented” approach to the energy transition, which will leave “no place for fossil fuels”.

He adds that he is “very much sure that China’s zero-carbon process is being accelerated and fossil fuels are being driven out of the market”, pointing to the rapid adoption of EVs.

The plan says that China will aim to double “non-fossil energy” in 10 years – although it does not clarify whether this means their installed capacity or electricity generation, or what the exact starting year would be. 

Research has shown that doubling wind and solar capacity in China between 2025-2035 would be “consistent” with aims to limit global warming to 2C. 

While the language “certainly” pushes for greater additions of renewable energy, Yao tells Carbon Brief, it is too “opaque” to be a “direct indication” of the government’s plans for renewable additions. 

She adds that “grid stability and healthy, orderly competition” is a higher priority for policymakers than guaranteeing a certain level of capacity additions.

China continues to place emphasis on the need for large-scale clean-energy “bases” and cross-regional power transmission.

The plan says China must develop “clean-energy bases…in the three northern regions” and “integrated hydro-wind-solar complexes” in south-west China.

It specifically encourages construction of “large-scale wind and solar” power bases in desert regions “primarily” for cross-regional power transmission, as well as “major hydropower” projects, including the Yarlung Tsangpo dam in Tibet. 

As such, the country should construct “power-transmission corridors” with the capacity to send 420 gigawatts (GW) of electricity from clean-energy bases in western provinces to energy-hungry eastern provinces by 2030, the plan says.

State Grid, China’s largest grid operator, plans to install “another 15 ultra-high voltage [UHV] transmission ​lines” by 2030, reports Reuters, up from the 45 UHV lines built by last year.

Below are two maps illustrating the interlinkages between clean-energy bases in China in the 15th (top) and 14th (bottom) five-year plan periods. 

The yellow dotted areas represent clean energy bases, while the arrows represent cross-regional power transmission. The blue wind-turbine icons represent offshore windfarms and the red cooling tower icons represent coastal nuclear plants.

Maps showing layout of key energy projects in China during 2026-2030 (top) and 2021-2025 (bottom). Source: Chinese government’s 15th five-year plan and 14th five-year plan.

The 15th five-year plan map shows a consistent approach to the 2021-2025 period. As well as power being transmitted from west to east, China plans for more power to be sent to southern provinces from clean-energy bases in the north-west, while clean-energy bases in the north-east supply China’s eastern coast. 

It also maps out “mutual assistance” schemes for power grids in neighbouring provinces. 

Offshore wind power should reach 100GW by 2030, while nuclear power should rise to 110GW, according to the plan.

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What does the plan signal about coal?

The increased emphasis on grid infrastructure in the draft 15th five-year plan reflects growing concerns from energy planning officials around ensuring China’s energy supply.

Ren Yuzhi, director of the NEA’s development and planning department, wrote ahead of the plan’s release that the “continuous expansion” of China’s energy system has “dramatically increased its complexity”.

He said the NEA felt there was an “urgent need” to enhance the “secure and reliable” replacement of fossil-fuel power with new energy sources, as well as to ensure the system’s “ability to absorb them”.

Meanwhile, broader concerns around energy security have heightened calls for coal capacity to remain in the system as a “ballast stone”.

The plan continues to support the “clean and efficient utilisation of fossil fuels” and does not mention either a cap or peaking timeline for coal consumption.

Xi had previously told fellow world leaders that China would “strictly control” coal-fired power and phase down coal consumption in the 15th five-year plan period. 

The “geopolitical situation is increasing energy security concerns” at all levels of government, said the Institute for Global Decarbonization Progress in a note responding to the draft plan, adding that this was creating “uncertainty over coal reduction”.

Ahead of its publication, there were questions around whether the plan would set a peaking deadline for oil and coal. An article posted by state news agency Xinhua last month, examining recommendations for the plan from top policymakers, stated that coal consumption would plateau from “around 2027”, while oil would peak “around 2026”.  

However, the plan does not lay out exact years by which the two fossil fuels should peak, only saying that China will “promote the peaking of coal and oil consumption”.

There are similarly no mentions of phasing out coal in general, in line with existing policy.

Nevertheless, there is a heavy emphasis on retrofitting coal-fired power plants. The plan calls for the establishment of “demonstration projects” for coal-plant retrofitting, such as through co-firing with biomass or “green ammonia”.

Such retrofitting could incentivise lower utilisation of coal plants – and thus lower emissions – if they are used to flexibly meet peaks in demand and to cover gaps in clean-energy output, instead of providing a steady and significant share of generation. 

The plan also calls for officials to “fully implement low-carbon retrofitting projects for coal-chemical industries”, which have been a notable source of emissions growth in the past year. 

However, the coal-chemicals sector will likely remain a key source of demand for China’s coal mining industry, with coal-to-oil and coal-to-gas bases listed as a “key area” for enhancing the country’s “security capabilities”.

Meanwhile, coal-fired boilers and industrial kilns in the paper industry, food processing and textiles should be replaced with “clean” alternatives to the equivalent of 30m tonnes of coal consumption per year, it says.

“China continues to scale up clean energy at an extraordinary pace, but the plan still avoids committing to strong measurable constraints on emissions or fossil fuel use”, says Joseph Dellatte, head of energy and climate studies at the Institut Montaigne. He adds:

“The logic remains supply-driven: deploy massive amounts of clean energy and assume emissions will eventually decline.”

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How will China approach global climate governance in the next five years? 

Meanwhile, clean-energy technologies continue to play a role in upgrading China’s economy, with several “new energy” sectors listed as key to its industrial policy.

Named sectors include smart EVs, “new solar cells”, new-energy storage, hydrogen and nuclear fusion energy.

“China’s clean-technology development – rather than traditional administrative climate controls – is increasingly becoming the primary driver of emissions reduction,” says ASPI’s Li. He adds that strengthening China’s clean-energy sectors means “more closely aligning Beijing’s economic ambitions with its climate objectives”.

Analysis for Carbon Brief shows that clean energy drove more than a third of China’s GDP growth in 2025, representing around 11% of China’s whole economy.

The continued support for these sectors in the draft five-year plan comes as the EU outlined its own measures intended to limit China’s hold on clean-energy industries, driven by accusations of “unfair competition” from Chinese firms. 

China is unlikely to crack down on clean-tech production capacity, Dr Rebecca Nadin, director of the Centre for Geopolitics of Change at ODI Global, tells Carbon Brief. She says:

“Beijing is treating overcapacity in solar and smart EVs as a strategic choice, not a policy error…and is prepared to pour investment into these sectors to cement global market share, jobs and technological leverage.”

Dellatte echoes these comments, noting that it is “striking” that the plan “barely addresses the issue of industrial overcapacity in clean technologies”, with the focus firmly on “scaling production and deployment”.

At the same time, China is actively positioning itself to be a prominent voice in climate diplomacy and a champion of proactive climate action.

This is clear from the first line in a section on providing “global public goods”. It says:

“As a responsible major country, China will play a more active role in addressing global challenges such as climate change.”

The plan notes that China will “actively participate in and steer [引领] global climate governance”, in line with the principle of “common,but differentiated responsibilities”.

This echoes similar language from last year’s government work report, Yao tells Carbon Brief, demonstrating a “clear willingness” to guide global negotiations. But she notes that this “remains an aspiration that’s yet to be made concrete”. She adds:

“China has always favored collective leadership, so its vision of leadership is never a lone one.”

The country will “deepen south-south cooperation on climate change”, the plan says. In an earlier section on “opening up”, it also notes that China will explore “new avenues for collaboration in green development” with global partners as part of its “Belt and Road Initiative”.

China is “doubling down” on a narrative that it is a “responsible major power” and “champion of south-south climate cooperation”, Nadin says, such as by “presenting its clean‑tech exports and finance as global public goods”. She says:

“China will arrive at future COPs casting itself as the indispensable climate leader for the global south…even though its new five‑year plan still puts growth, energy security and coal ahead of faster emissions cuts at home.”

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What else does the plan cover?

The impact of extreme weather – particularly floods – remains a key concern in the plan.

China must “refine” its climate adaptation framework and “enhance its resilience to climate change, particularly extreme-weather events”, it says.

China also aims to “strengthen construction of a national water network” over the next five years in order to help prevent floods and droughts.

An article published a few days before the plan in the state-run newspaper China Daily noted that, “as global warming intensifies, extreme weather events – including torrential rains, severe convective storms, and typhoons – have become more frequent, widespread and severe”.

The plan also touches on critical minerals used for low-carbon technologies. These will likely remain a geopolitical flashpoint, with China saying it will focus during the next five years on “intensifying” exploration and “establishing” a reserve for critical minerals. This reserve will focus on “scarce” energy minerals and critical minerals, as well as other “advantageous mineral resources”.

Dellatte says that this could mean the “competition in the energy transition will increasingly be about control over mineral supply chains”.

Other low-carbon policies listed in the five-year plan include expanding coverage of China’s mandatory carbon market and further developing its voluntary carbon market.

China will “strengthen monitoring and control” of non-CO2 greenhouse gases, the plan says, as well as implementing projects “targeting methane, nitrous oxide and hydrofluorocarbons” in sectors such as coal mining, agriculture and chemicals.

This will create “capacity” for reducing emissions by 30m tonnes of CO2 equivalent, it adds.

Meanwhile, China will develop rules for carbon footprint accounting and push for internationally recognised accounting standards. 

It will enhance reform of power markets over the next five years and improve the trading mechanism for green electricity certificates.

It will also “promote” adoption of low-carbon lifestyles and decarbonisation of transport, as well as working to advance electrification of freight and shipping.

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Ma Jun: ‘No business interest’ in Chinese coal power due to cheaper renewables 

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The post Q&A: What does China’s 15th ‘five-year plan’ mean for climate change? appeared first on Carbon Brief.

The latest jobs report shows the United States lost 92,000 jobs in February 2026, with prior months revised down by 69,000 jobs. The unemployment rate remains elevated at 4.4% and is near its highest levels in 4 years. The February report reveals a labor market that is barely hanging on as Trump threatens to reignite inflation with his illegal war in the Middle East.

Groundwork Collaborative’s Chief of Policy and Advocacy Alex Jacquez released the following statement:

“The deterioration in the labor market is visible from space. Trump’s reckless economic agenda has forced the labor market into the negative, threatening the livelihoods of American workers. As the president piles on blanket tariffs and oil prices soar, today’s report confirms he’s sent the economy straight into a stagflation spiral.”

Scott Socha, President Donald Trump’s nominee to lead the National Park Service, is ‘completely unqualified’ for the job, said Center for Western Priorities Deputy Director Aaron Weiss in an interview with Arizona’s KJZZ.

Socha currently works for Delaware North, a hospitality company that operates hotels and snack bars at several national parks. This experience, Weiss argues, does not meet the legal requirement that the National Park Service’s director have “substantial experience and demonstrated competence in land management and natural or cultural resource conservation.”

What Socha does have experience in is profiting from exclusive concessionaire contracts in national parks. Weiss points out that this “dollars and cents” approach aligns well with Interior Secretary Doug Burgum’s “balance sheet” approach to national public lands. However, this approach is wildly out of step with how Americans want national parks to be managed: to protect irreplaceable wildlife habitats, recreation opportunities, cultural sites, and other values that can’t be reduced to a number on a spreadsheet.

“This is a woefully understaffed agency and there is no help on the horizon. There is no indication that Secretary Burgum plans to fully staff our parks ever again,” said Weiss. “Those cracks are going to begin to show. And that’s where having someone who has spent an entire career in the privatization business, that’s a huge concern at this moment in time.”

Quick hits A little-used maneuver could mean more drilling and mining in southern Utah’s redrock country

Inside Climate News

Feds broke law approving massive Wyoming gas, oil field, court finds

WyoFile

Nature report, killed by Trump, is released independently

New York Times

Colorado, enviros sue EPA over rejection of regional haze plan that would have closed coal plants

Colorado Sun | Denver Gazette | E&E News

Proposed USFS plan would require continuous logging on three Montana forests

Missoula Current

Interior strips protections from Alaska’s famed Dalton Highway, opens public lands to state transfer

Field & Stream

Protesters in Flagstaff challenge uranium mining, transportation at Pinyon Plain Mine

Arizona Daily Sun

Opinion: Don’t let Congress abuse policy to give away public lands

The Hill

Quote of the day

Undermining Tribal collaboration undercuts trust, weakens public land management, and threatens the integrity of monuments nationwide. True leadership would strengthen government-to-government relationships, not disregard them.”

—Davina Smith-Idjesa, Navajo Nation member, Inside Climate News

Picture This @utahgeologicalsurvey

Photo of the Week: Window Blind Peak and the San Rafael River, Emery County
Photographer: Adam Hiscock
Window Blind Peak catches first light as it rises dramatically above the San Rafael River. Located near the middle of the San Rafael Swell uplift, the peak consists of Triassic- to Jurassic-age Chinle Formation, Wingate Sandstone, and Kayenta Formation capped by the Jurassic-age Navajo Sandstone.

 

Featured image: Grand Canyon National Park

The post Scott Socha ‘completely unqualified’ to lead National Park Service appeared first on Center for Western Priorities.

Winter Storm Fern showed that the integration of flexible resources paired with improved weatherization and better market structures can materially reduce risk during extreme weather, writes Tapas Peshin of PCI Energy Solutions.

“The Hub” is a weekly round-up of transportation related news in the Philadelphia area and beyond. Check back weekly to keep up-to-date on the issues Clean Air Council’s transportation staff finds important.

Save the SEPTA Zero Fare Program! Follow Transit Forward Philadelphia for events and actions to fight for this program.

Image source: The Inquirer

The Inquirer: SEPTA trolleys will use AI cameras to catch drivers breaking no-parking rules in Philly – Starting this week, cars parked illegally in the SEPTA trolley lanes will be issued tickets from automated enforcement cameras. 30 trolleys across six lines will be getting AI-camera systems installed to issue those tickets. Violations will result in a mailed warning until April 1st, afterwards there will be a $51 ticket. This program is in addition to the 152 SEPTA buses with AI-powered cameras issuing tickets for parking in bus lanes which began last year. Trolleys cannot go off track to avoid illegally parked cars, they result in delays to service, and hours of delays total.

Image Source: BillyPenn

BillyPenn: 30th Street a popular option for Philly’s future intercity bus station – Three potential sites are being evaluated by the City of Philadelphia to build a permanent bus terminal for Greyhound and other intercity carriers. The old Filbert St. site near Chinatown will soon house intercity bus pick up and drop off, with plans to reopen in May. The lease on that site will end in 10 years, with extensions only available for 5 additional years. The sites being evaluated would be a permanent home, and owned by the City. The most popular option at a public meeting last week was the 30th St Station. Wednesday’s open house was a crucial first step for this plan, with plans for more public meetings later this year. An online survey is also available and seeking feedback.

Image Source: PhillyVoice

PhillyVoice: SEPTA gets $5.5 million in federal funding to enhance World Cup service – The Federal Transit Administration is awarding the 11 host cities of the World Cup funds to run service and make improvements ahead of the six games scheduled for Lincoln Financial Field. SEPTA is getting around $5.5 million to assist with expenses for the World Cup and other 2026 events. The estimated cost to increase service this summer is expected to be around $21.5 million. SEPTA typically adds 10 extra trips to the Broad Street Line schedule before and after Eagles games, and will probably do the same for World Cup matches. FIFA FanFest is a five week festival at Lemon Hill taking place this summer, and along with the nation’s 250th anniversary, SEPTA will be operating at a much larger capacity. These funds support the operational budget, which has been underfunded for years due to lack of state support.

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An acceleration in human-caused global warming could see the Paris Agreement’s 1.5C limit breached before 2030, a new study suggests.

The paper, published in Geophysical Research Letters, finds that, over the past decade, the planet has been warming at its fastest rate on record.

The authors isolate the trend of human-driven warming in the long-term global temperature record, removing the influence of natural factors, such as El Niño, volcanic eruptions and solar variation.

They find that the world had been warming at a rate of around 0.2C per decade since the 1970s, but has “accelerated” since 2015 to a rate of 0.35C per decade.

The study warns that if the current rate of warming persists, the 1.5C Paris threshold will be breached in the next few years.

“The essential result of this paper isn’t how fast we’re warming, but that warming is now happening faster than before and that the difference isn’t negligible,” an author on the study tells Carbon Brief.

Warming signal

The year 2024 was the hottest on record, with global average temperatures at the surface exceeding 1.5C above pre-industrial levels for the first time. 

Crossing the 1.5C threshold in a single year is not equivalent to a breach of the Paris Agreement, which refers to long-term warming – typically interpreted as over a 20-year period.

However, rapidly rising global temperatures are prompting scientists to ask when this internationally recognised threshold might be broken.

Human activity has been the primary driver of rising global temperature in the long term, through greenhouse gas emissions and land-use change. However, natural factors also have warming and cooling effects from year to year.

The study authors identified three main sources of this natural variability.

El Niño and La Niña – collectively referred to as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) – are generally the largest drivers of year-to-year fluctuations in global temperatures. The study authors identify volcanic activity and changes in solar variation as the other two main natural influences on global temperature trends. 

Study author Dr Grant Foster, formerly from the consulting firm Tempo Analytics and now retired, describes these sources of natural variability as “random noise” that sits on top of the long-term warming signal. He explains that “the larger the noise, the harder it is to see the real trend”.

To isolate the warming trend, the authors used a statistical technique that they first employed in a 2011 paper to remove the contributions of ENSO, volcanic activity and solar variation from the global temperature record.

The authors carried out this analysis on five separate datasets of global average surface temperature – NASA, NOAA, the Met Office Hadley Centre and University of East Anglia’s HadCRUT5, Berkeley Earth and Copernicus ERA5. 

The plots below show the global temperature between 1880 and 2024, relative to pre-industrial temperatures, from the five datasets.

Each plot shows the original warming record (light blue), in which all drivers of warming are included, as well as the adjusted record (dark blue) which excludes the effects of ENSO, volcanoes and solar activity. 

Global temperature trends from five datasets, including (light blue) and excluding (dark blue) the effects of El Nino, volcanic activity and solar activity. Source: Foster and Rahmstorf (2026).

Removing the effects of natural variability makes the years 2023 and 2024 slightly cooler, the study notes, but they remain the two warmest years since the beginning of instrumental record.

Acceleration

Record-high temperatures in recent years have led scientists to ask whether global warming is accelerating.

The authors of the new study decided to use two different statistical approaches to test whether they can identify a “statistically significant” acceleration in global warming from the long-term temperature record.

The “noise” from natural drivers of temperature change, such as ENSO, can make it tricky to spot underlying trends. However, Foster tells Carbon Brief that after removing the influence of natural variability, “acceleration is easy to prove statistically – some might even say it becomes obvious”.

Both tests find that warming is accelerating with more than 98% confidence for each of the five datasets. When the same tests were run on the unadjusted data, they failed to reach even 95% confidence, showing the importance of removing natural variability from the warming signal, according to the study authors.

Under the first statistical approach, called a quadratic analysis, the authors applied a single curved trend line to the warming signal.

For the second approach, the authors used a technique to identify the month when the rate of global warming changed noticeably. The different datasets estimated this date to range from February 2013 to February 2014. They then calculated the speed of global warming both before and after these dates.

Global temperatures increased at an average rate of around 0.2C per decade over 1970-2015, according to the study.

In contrast, the authors find that warming rates have increased to 0.34-0.42C per decade, across the five different datasets, since the February 2013-February 2014 period. 

The study reveals that the rate of warming observed over the past decade has been higher than any previous decade in the instrumental record. 

Foster tells Carbon Brief that “the essential result of this paper isn’t how fast we’re warming, but that warming is now happening faster than before and that the difference isn’t negligible”.

If this warming rate remains constant, the Paris Agreement 1.5C threshold would be breached between 2026 and 2029, the authors find. 

(Their approach estimates the 20-year period where the average exceeds 1.5C of warming, and the breach of the limit is taken as the halfway point in this period.)

The table below shows key results for the five different datasets, including estimates for the date that warming started accelerating, the rate of warming and the year that the Paris Agreement will be breached in each.

Data sourceDate of accelerationWarming rate (C per decade)Year to cross 1.5C NASAApril 20130.362028 NOAAFebruary 20130.362028 HadCRUTJanuary 20140.342029 BerkleyFebruary 20140.362028 ERA5February 20140.422026 Results for the five different datasets, including estimates for the date that warming started accelerating, the rate of warming and the year that the Paris Agreement will be breached in each. Source: Foster and Rahmstorf (2026). ‘Statistical significance’

There are “many opinions” among climate scientists about how fast the planet is currently warming, Foster tells Carbon Brief. 

For example, a study from Dr James Hansen calculates a warming rate of 0.27C per decade after 2010. Similarly, the latest Indicators of Global Climate Change report estimates warming of 0.27C per decade over 2015-24.

Foster continues:

“But we all agree it’s higher than before. [The] thing is, we couldn’t prove that statistically.”

Foster tells Carbon Brief that in 2024, Dr Claudie Beaulieu – an assistant professor at the University of California – led a study which concluded that “a recent surge in global warming is not detectable yet”.

Beaulieu used the same statistical method as Foster to investigate whether global temperature data shows an acceleration in warming. However, she did not first remove the natural drivers of temperature change, such as ENSO.

(Carbon Brief wrote about Beaulieu’s work in more detail when it was published.)

Foster tells Carbon Brief that the study was “excellent”, adding:

“They found that confirming acceleration was a close call – the data are very suggestive – but not quite ‘statistically significant.’”

Foster explains that after removing the natural influence, the warming trend is clearer, making it easier to find statistically significant warming levels. 

Beaulieu praises the new study, explaining that “the fact that the acceleration signal appears consistently across all five independent datasets is reassuring”. 

However, she stresses that “the acceleration may prove temporary”.

She says that “continued monitoring over the next several years will be essential to determine whether the accelerated warming rate identified here represents a lasting shift”. 

The study authors say that the main limitation of their work is that the method of removing natural variability is “empirically based, but approximate and imperfect”. 

Foster says:

“We estimate the impact of things like El Niño by comparing past values of the El Niño index to past temperature changes, hence we don’t need to know the physics behind it, just the numbers. Statistical results like this are only approximate.” 

Meanwhile, an acceleration in warming is supported by many other observations of the Earth’s climate.

For example, ocean heat content – the measure of the amount of energy stored in the ocean – is rising year on year. There is also evidence of acceleration in recent years, with the period from 2020 onward seeing the largest year-to-year increases in ocean heat content on record.

In addition, the Earth’s energy imbalance, which measures the difference between incoming solar radiation and outgoing radiation, has also increased in recent years.

Analysis: What are the causes of recent record-high global temperatures?

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