I. Climate Science

This is a re-post from Yale Climate Connections by Ben Tracy, Climate Central

If you feel like your electricity bill just keeps climbing, you aren’t imagining it. Since 2020, U.S. residential energy prices have surged by about 30%, making power the largest household energy expense behind gasoline, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.

But for residents like Alex Curtis, the days of feeling powerless against rising costs are coming to an end. Curtis is waging a war on his electric bill, and his new weapon of choice is a lightweight, thin-film solar panel.

“Oh, it’s super light too,” Curtis remarked as he unboxed the kit on the balcony of his condo in Sunnyvale, California. It weighs just about 10 pounds. 

The ‘plug-and-play’ revolution Unlike traditional rooftop solar, which requires thousands of dollars in upfront costs, specialized mounting hardware, and professional electricians, this system is designed for the everyday consumer. It’s a $400 kit from Bright Saver, a non-profit advocating for “plug-and-play” solar that works for renters and homeowners alike.

The setup is deceptively simple: you hang the panel on a balcony or prop it up in a backyard and plug it directly into a standard wall outlet.

“I did some rough math and this might save me like $30 to $50 a month,” Curtis said.

The magic happens behind the scenes. Once plugged in, a small inverter syncs the solar energy with the home’s existing electrical infrastructure. It took about 15 minutes to get it all set up. Bright Saver’s Rupert Mayer then pointed to a light on the inverter: “Ah, here it is, it’s blue.”

“This is it. Easy,” Curtis replied. Within minutes, he was generating his own clean energy. He estimates it will be enough to power an appliance like his refrigerator. 

Small panels, big impact

Cora Stryker, co-founder of Bright Saver, believes this technology is key to democratizing the green energy transition. It not only cuts an individual’s planet-warming pollution but also their electric bill. 

“Clean energy actually is the cheapest form of energy around,” Stryker said, “and we the consumers should be benefiting from that.”

While these panels won’t take a home entirely off the grid, Stryker says the units can trim monthly costs by 10% to 25% depending on how many panels a user installs. More savings can be had if the panels are paired with batteries that can store excess solar energy. 

“They cover a part of your energy bill and then you do need to draw the rest from the grid as you do now,” Stryker explained. 

The “Balkonkraftwerk” trend

While the technology is just gaining a foothold in the U.S., it is already a cultural phenomenon in Europe. In Germany, these systems are so common they have a specific name: Balkonkraftwerk, or “balcony power plant.”

An estimated 4 million balcony solar units are currently installed in Germany. The U.S., however, has been slower to adopt the tech, largely due to a patchwork of utility regulations and bureaucratic red tape. Utilities in some states have pushed back against the use of these systems citing potential hazards to the safety of the grid and line workers. 

“And that is patently ridiculous for these little systems,” Stryker said. “Those laws were intended for rooftop systems 5 to 20 times as large.”

A changing legal landscape

The tide is quickly turning. In 2025, Utah became the first state to officially authorize plug-in solar. Overall, 34 states and Washington, D.C., have introduced legislation to allow for use of the technology. It has passed in Colorado, Connecticut, Maine, Maryland, New Hampshire, and Virginia. 

For advocates like Stryker, it’s a matter of personal liberty: “It’s kind of like ‘don’t tell me what to do in my own backyard and on my own balcony.’”

As for Alex Curtis, he knows his Sunnyvale neighbors might have questions when they see the sleek panel hanging from his railing, but he’s focused on his newfound taste of energy independence. 

“I think that’s what gets me excited,” Curtis said. “Being able to power my own stuff and be self- sufficient like in baby steps which is pretty cool.”

Climate Central is an independent group of scientists and communicators who research and report the facts about our changing climate and how it affects people’s lives. It is a policy-neutral 501(c)(3) nonprofit.

We handpick and explain the most important stories at the intersection of climate, land, food and nature over the past fortnight.

This is an online version of Carbon Brief’s fortnightly Cropped email newsletter.
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Key developments Ocean talks 

MAKING WAVES: African and Commonwealth countries issued a “call to action” to implement the High Seas Treaty at the Our Ocean Conference in Kenya this week, reported the Associated Press. The summit, which ends on 18 June, is focused on ocean issues including “climate change, biodiversity and pollution”, said the newswire. The UK government announced £13.9m in marine-related funding at the summit. 

OCEAN ‘STRAIN’: Climate change, pollution, overfishing and biodiversity loss are putting oceans under “severe strain”, according to a UN report. The third “world ocean assessment” noted that conservation efforts have also “grown”, including through “nature-based solutions, ecosystem restoration and sustainable management techniques”. Meanwhile, another UN report said that fisheries and aquaculture production reached an all-time high of 235m tonnes in 2024.

OBSERVATION ISSUES: Scientists told the Guardian that the Trump administration’s plan to dismantle a key ocean-observation system run by the US would “severely degrade” the accuracy of weather forecasts around the world. Several Democratic and one Republican lawmaker pushed back against the plan to get rid of the system, reported the Associated Press. [For more, see the first edition of Cited, Carbon Brief’s newsletter on climate science.]

Plant and fungi update

OFF-KILTER: Plant flowering times have “shifted significantly” over the last century, according to an AI-assisted analysis of 8m “digitised herbarium specimens” in the latest “state of the world plants and fungi” report from the Royal Botanic Gardens Kew. The report stated there have been “both advances and delays” in flowering date, with a median shift of 2.5 days per decade in either direction. The greatest variation was observed in the tropics, it added.

‘NEW ERA’: The report highlighted that Kew recently completed a digitisation of 7.4m herbarium and fungarium specimens in its collection. The ongoing digitisation of specimens around the world, alongside AI technology, could “transform understanding of biodiversity loss and climate change and pave the way to resolving these seemingly intractable crises”, it said.

EXTINCTION RISK: In its coverage of the report, the Guardian said that AI and digitalisation could help scientists document “vital” plant species “before they vanish”. About 40% of the world’s “assessed” 70,000 plant species are at risk of extinction, while a further 330,000 are yet to be analysed, according to the newspaper. The situation for fungi is “even more stark”, it reported, with 90% of an estimated 2m species still “unknown to science” and less than 1% of known species assessed for extinction risk.

News and views

• BEEF TRACKS: A “landmark” law in Colombia requiring the beef industry to prove supply chains are deforestation-free has taken effect, reported the Associated Press. The measure is part of efforts to “reverse decades of forest loss, much of it driven by the expansion of cattle ranching into previously forested areas”, noted the newswire. 
• CONTINGENCY PLAN: With El Niño conditions officially confirmed as underway, the Indian government called for an “overhaul” of agricultural districts’ plans for managing the impact of below-normal rainfall on crops, reported Down to Earth. Around 150-200 districts have been identified as “most critical” based on projections, the outlet noted.
• MEATIER: Global meat supply has increased fourfold in the past six decades, according to a UN report covered by the Guardian. Agriculture’s “planet-heating emissions are forecast to rise by 7.6% over the next decade” as food production continues to grow, the newspaper said. 
• TREES, NOT TARMAC: Kenya’s former chief justice, David Maraga, was among a number of protesters arrested in Nairobi for demonstrating against plans to turn 75 acres of Nairobi National Park into a car park, reported Kenya’s Daily Nation. Demonstrators were en route to deliver a petition to Kenya’s Wildlife Service when they were interrupted by anti-riot police officers, according to the newspaper.
• MANGROVES BACK, ALRIGHT: A new study covered by BBC News found that mangrove forests are “staging an unexpected comeback” globally. The broadcaster said mangroves had been “declining rapidly as they were cleared for fish farms and housing”, but the world is now “gaining more mangroves than it has been losing”. 
• ‘LIMITED’ PROGRESS: Some 59% of the world’s largest financial institutions do not have a deforestation policy in place, according to the latest “forest 500” report from Global Canopy. The report – which assesses the 150 financial institutions that provide the most financing to the 500 companies with the “greatest influence” on deforestation – described finance sector progress on forest loss in 2025 as “limited”.

Spotlight Coral reef ‘hope’ 

This week, Carbon Brief reports on research estimating coral reef resilience. 

New research offers a sliver of “hope” that 30% of the world’s coral reefs could be “resilient” against the harmful effects of climate change. 

The study, which is in the final stages of peer review and due to be published soon, identified swathes of reefs that have the best potential to withstand and recover from marine heatwaves and other stressors. 

Climate change is a major threat to the survival of coral reefs. In a 2018 report, the UN’s science body warned that reefs could decline by an additional 70-90% at 1.5C of warming and as much as 99% under 2C.

The areas of potentially resilient reefs identified in the new study span almost 166,000 square kilometres – an area twice the size of Scotland. 

These reefs are spread across 71 countries and 100 territories, but 61% are found in the territorial waters of just five nations – Australia, the Bahamas, Cuba, Indonesia and the Philippines. 

The lead study author, Dr Kyle Zawada from Macquarie University in Australia, told Carbon Brief that the research shows the areas that could most likely “persist through climate change”. He added:  

“[Coal reefs] are obviously in dire straits – but that’s not to say there are not pockets of resistance and pockets of resilience.”

Fewer than 30% of the reefs deemed to be the most climate-resilient are contained in protected or conserved areas, the study noted. 

The map below shows a snapshot of the findings, highlighting the Great Barrier Reef off the north-eastern coast of Australia. The light pink areas are regular reefs, while the slightly darker pink are “climate-resilient” reefs. 

Map of coral cover at the Great Barrier Reef off the coast of Queensland, Australia. Source: SkyTruth Reef maps

The team, led by researchers from Macquarie University and the Wildlife Conservation Society, used the findings from more than 45,000 research surveys on corals over 1960-2025 in modelling simulations to create a map of coral cover around the world in 2020 and projections for 2050.

The modelling looked at various scenarios of future emissions and the researchers developed criteria to determine which reefs could be best positioned to survive or recover from extreme events and higher temperatures.

This specified that, for example, larger-sized reefs and those with a wide diversity of coral species tend to be more resilient than smaller areas with a lower variety of coral. 

Zawada told Carbon Brief that the study does not replace real-life observations of how reefs respond to extremes. But, he added, it offers a “good guess” of areas to protect: 

“It would be nice to say that there are these little reefs of hope, obviously with the massive asterisks that this doesn’t mean that these ones are out of the woods…and to sort of use that as a rallying call for us to take that hope forward and have a look at these reefs.” 

Watch, read, listen

WAY DOWN: An interactive article in the New York Times detailed the ongoing “quest” to mine the deep sea. 

‘PING-PONG SPONGES’: The Guardian delved into the “secrets of the deep sea”. 

DENTAL DAMAGE: A dentist wrote about how “extreme heat is turning Pakistani farmworkers’ mouths into hostile environments for their own teeth” in the Earth Island Journal.  

‘PIG ELECTION’: DeSmog explored the impacts of Denmark’s plans to “radically overhaul its drinking water policy as part of a raft of sweeping reforms to the country’s livestock industry”.  

New science

• Lower rainfall levels, driven by deforestation, led to a reduction in soya bean production in southern Brazil over 1982–2018 | Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
• A “partial ecosystem collapse scenario” that considers changes to tropical timber, wild pollination and marine fisheries services could increase the annual debt-servicing costs of 23 countries by $162bn | Nature Ecology & Evolution
• Around 7% of the global population of Tapanuli orangutans – the “world’s rarest ape” – was killed after extreme rainfall led to “widespread landslides” in Sumatra, Indonesia, in 2025 | Current Biology

In the diary

• 19 June-27 June: London climate action week 
• 21 June: Colombian presidential elections (second round)
• 22-26 June: 26th meeting of the UN open-ended informal consultative process on oceans and the law of the sea | New York City 
• 30 June-4 July: 4th meeting of partners of the Global Peatlands Initiative | Lima, Peru

Cropped 3 June 2026: Highway through the Amazon | El Niño impact | State of CO2 removal

Cropped

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03.06.26

Cropped 20 May 2026: Deforestation roadmap | Melanesian Ocean Summit | Returning pet parrots to the wild

Cropped

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20.05.26

Cropped 6 May 2026: Forest loss falls | Deforestation regulations | Saving ‘India’s Galapagos’

Cropped

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06.05.26

Cropped 22 April 2026: Global food ‘catastrophe’ | BECCS emissions | UK solar farm controversy

Cropped

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22.04.26

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The post Cropped 17 June 2026: Coral reef ‘hope’ | Ocean talks | Plant flowering times ‘shift’ appeared first on Carbon Brief.

Skeptical Science is partnering with Gigafact to produce fact briefs — bite-sized fact checks of trending claims. You can submit claims you think need checking via the tipline.

Does solar energy need subsidies to compete with fossil fuels?

Unsubsidized utility-scale solar is now generally cheaper than building fossil fuel power plants.

Costs are often compared using “levelized cost of energy,” the average lifetime cost to build and run a power plant divided by the electricity it produces. A 2025 analysis estimates the mean LCOE of utility-scale solar at about $58 per megawatt-hour without subsidies, compared to $79 for new natural gas plants and $128 for new coal. The International Energy Agency reports solar energy is the cheapest source of new electricity generation in most parts of the world.

Solar costs have fallen sharply over the past decade as panel prices have dropped and the industry has grown. Subsidies can further lower costs, but solar is not dependent on them to compete with fossil fuels.

Go to full rebuttal on Skeptical Science or to the fact brief on Gigafact

This fact brief is responsive to quotes such as this one.

Sources

International Energy Agency World Energy Outlook 2020

Lazard Lazard Releases 2025 Levelized Cost of Energy+ Report

Reuters Around 90% of renewables cheaper than fossil fuels worldwide, IRENA says

Scientific American Wind and Solar Energy Are Cheaper Than Electricity from Fossil-Fuel Plants

Columbia Law School Sabin Center for Climate Change Law Rebutting 33 False Claims About Solar, Wind, and Electric Vehicles

Please use this form to provide feedback about this fact brief. This will help us to better gauge its impact and usability. Thank you!

About fact briefs published on Gigafact

Fact briefs are short, credibly sourced summaries that offer "yes/no" answers in response to claims found online. They rely on publicly available, often primary source data and documents. Fact briefs are created by contributors to Gigafact — a nonprofit project looking to expand participation in fact-checking and protect the democratic process. See all of our published fact briefs here.

More energy-efficient air-conditioning units could, together, save Indian households ₹69bn ($724m) a year, according to new analysis by Carbon Brief. 

Climate change-induced extreme heat is driving up the use of air conditioning across the country, as people try to cope with record-breaking temperatures. 

This demand, however, is straining the country’s power grid and raising emissions. 

On 21 May 2026, India’s power demand reached a record 270 gigawatts (GW), fuelled by a heatwave sweeping across the country and a surge in air-conditioning demand.

Carbon Brief’s analysis shows that, if the roughly 15m households expected to buy a new air conditioning (AC) unit this year bought a “five-star” rated one instead of a “two-star”, it would cut carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions by nearly 5m tonne (Mt). 

The installation of AC units in India is currently uneven and ongoing challenges remain, predominantly around the cost of the technology. 

Below, Carbon Brief looks at what more energy-efficient models would mean for India’s emissions and household electricity savings, as well as opportunities and barriers to cooling access. 

Record heat

Historically, India has had one of the lowest levels of access to cooling in the world. As the nation continues to see an increasing number of heatwave days, this is shifting.

For example, India saw record-breaking heat in 2024 and nearly 14m air conditioners sold – up from 10m in 2023.

Between 2021 and 2023, AC sales volumes increased by more than 25% year-on-year in India.

While solar power is playing an increasing role in meeting the daytime electricity demand from these units, coal power plays a significant role in powering air conditioners on warm nights.

By 2037, India’s space-cooling demand was expected to grow nearly 11-fold in a business-as-usual scenario compared to 2017, according to the government’s 2019 India Cooling Action Plan (ICAP). 

According to a World Bank study, this would mean a new air-conditioning unit is bought every 15 seconds in India. There would also be a 435% increase in annual greenhouse gas emissions related to air conditioning in the country over the next two decades. 

The chart below shows the ICAP’s estimated rise in air conditioner units in India from 2021 to 2037. The blue line represents a high-growth scenario, while the green line corresponds to a low-growth scenario. 

Residential air-conditioner ownership projections under low (green line) and high (blue line) growth scenarios, according to the India Cooling Action Plan’s projections. Source: ICAP (2019). Growing demand

Despite the upswing in installations over recent years, it remains rare for households to have access to air conditioning in India. 

According to India’s national sample survey in 2020-21, only 4.9% of Indian households owned air conditioning, with ownership concentrated among the urban rich. As of 2024, this had increased to around 8%. 

(Ownership of evaporative air coolers is significantly higher than it is for air conditioning, particularly in the arid north and central Indian states, where humidity is low.)

Dr Nikit Abhyankar, an associate adjunct professor at the Goldman School of Public Policy at the University of California Berkeley, tells Carbon Brief that India is set to add between 100-150m new air conditioners in the next 10 years, which could go up to 200m “if you factor in the crazy heatwaves”. 

According to his research, the two factors that drive “dramatic” sales of ACs are income and extreme temperatures. 

He tells Carbon Brief:

“The moment you cross a specific income threshold, the first appliance you buy is an air conditioner, no matter whether it’s hot or not. And the moment there are extreme temperatures, the next summer, you see a huge wave of new ACs being purchased.”

With that in mind, he says India offers a “classic lock-in opportunity”, since 90% of the air conditioners that will exist in 2040 have yet to be purchased, particularly given the tendency among Indian users to repair and reuse units. Abhyankar continues:

“That’s why making sure that first AC purchase is the most efficient one is very important in India, because that AC is not going out of the market in seven years.”

Energy-efficient units

With the number of air-conditioning units in India on the rise, ensuring they are as energy-efficient as possible could save households money, while cutting emissions and electricity demand. 

India’s Bureau of Energy Efficiency (BEE) mandates star ratings for air conditioners to indicate their efficiency. It uses a metric called the Indian seasonal energy efficiency ratio (ISEER), which is based on an India-specific temperature distribution. 

Ratings range from one to five stars, with the latter being the most energy-efficient. 

According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), three-star units “dominate” India’s air-conditioning market, “possibly due to [up-front] cost considerations”, while four- and five-star units account for a minority of sales. 

The chart below shows AC production volumes in India between 2019 and 2023 by energy-efficiency star rating, according to the IEA.  

Annual air conditioner production volumes in India by efficiency rating and fiscal year, 2019-2023. Source: International Energy Agency (2024).

Carbon Brief analysis finds that buying a five-star air conditioner could cut the emissions associated with generating electricity to run the unit by around 300 kilograms (kg) of CO2 per year, when compared to a two-star unit. 

As such, if all 15m air-conditioning units expected to be sold in 2026 were five-star, it could save 5MtCO2 annually. 

This is roughly equivalent to the emissions from an average-sized coal-fired power plant, the analysis shows. 

In a year, the lower electricity demand from more efficient units could mean ₹69bn ($724m) in cost savings for consumers, as shown in the chart below. Each affected household could save ₹4,600 ($48) annually on their bills. 

Running cost (blue) and potential savings (red) of 15m two-star and five-star rated air-conditioning in a year, ₹bn. Source: Carbon Brief analysis.

There are also significant savings from five-star units compared with three-stars, amounting to around 150kgCO2 and ₹2,300 ($24) per household per year.

Carbon Brief’s illustrative analysis is supported by a new working paper from the India Energy and Climate Center (IECC) at UC Berkeley, which looks at the longer-term impact of AC demand on electricity demand and emissions, as well as grid investment costs and consumer savings. 

Released in May 2026, it says that room air conditioners already account for nearly a quarter of India’s peak electricity demand (60-70GW). 

The authors estimate that AC-driven peak power demand could reach 120GW by 2030 and 180GW by 2035, pushing India’s power grid beyond its capacity. They warn:

“Even with all under-construction generation and storage projects online, power shortages are expected as early as 2028.”

Sustained energy-efficiency improvements, however, could reduce this cooling-driven peak power demand by 10GW by 2030 and 47GW by 2035. 

They estimate that these improvements could help avoid nearly $80bn in power infrastructure investments and deliver $9-25bn in consumer savings between 2028 and 2035, while reducing emissions by 12MtCO2 per year by 2030. 

Rolling out five-star units

While there are emissions and cost benefits to five-star air-conditioning units compared to the alternatives, the higher upfront costs can still present a barrier. 

These more energy-efficient units can pay for their higher purchase price over a three-year period, but on average cost ₹5,000 to ₹8,000 ($52-84) more upfront than a three-star unit. 

Researchers at the Indian climate thinktank Sustainable Futures Collaborative (SFC) called on Indian state and national governments to create a “highly-targeted active cooling” programme last year.

They recommended deploying a subsidy or a large-scale purchase programme that allows families to buy energy-efficient air conditioners. This, they said, must be targeted at portions of Indian cities with the highest heat risk, determined by the vulnerability assessments of their heat action plans. 

Climate adaptation researcher at King’s College London and SFC author Aditya Valiathan Pillai tells Carbon Brief: 

“Commit money to air conditioning for the poorest-of-the-poor: subsidise ultra-efficient ACs and electricity, but give them cool air at the cheapest possible, most efficient rate. 

“Because these are the people running the economy, which is not going to function in a heatwave if these people are dying or unable to work.”

Methodology 

Carbon Brief’s analysis is based on official energy consumption, power pricing and emissions data from different ministries and government institutions. 

It uses BEE’s “search and compare” tool to list all five-star and three-star “variable speed” or “inverter” air conditioners, given their enhanced efficiency and ability to regulate humidity.

This was then filtered to air conditioners with a capacity of 1.5t, which studies say are most preferred by Indian households. 

Using the same tool, Carbon Brief then listed all “fixed speed” two-star ACs of a similar capacity (1.45t to 1.55t), given that these account for the majority of two-star ACs available on the market and favoured by renters.

Based on expert estimates, the analysis lists the energy consumption of each of these key categories in kilowatt-hours (kWh) and added 15% to account for losses in power transmission and distribution. 

The carbon intensity of Indian electricity is specified by the CO2 baseline database published by India’s Central Electricity Authority in November 2025.

The number of hours per year a household’s air conditioning runs is estimated at 1,600 hours by the BEE. 

Carbon Brief uses a marginal electricity tariff of ₹10 per kWh to calculate annual electricity consumption costs. 

This is because average electricity tariffs vary significantly from state to state, but especially by energy consumption “slabs”, with AC use pushing bills into higher-tariff rates. 

For instance, in Maharashtra, electricity tariffs for domestic households range from ₹1.52 per unit for below-poverty-line households to ₹16.64 per unit for homes using more than 500 units of electricity. 

Savings from higher energy efficiency, therefore, reduce electricity consumption in the highest electricity tariff block, where rates are the most expensive.

Cooling hours

Air-conditioner usage varies across India’s climatic zones. The ISEER metric that underpins star ratings estimates that, on average, a household air conditioner runs for 1, 600 hours a year. 

This estimate is based on 2014 weather data for 54 cities across India, to see how many hours in a year temperatures exceed 24C. 

Refrigerant emissions

The analysis only accounts for emissions from electricity generation and does not factor in “fugitive” emissions from refrigerant leaks. 

These are significant, given that refrigerants are greenhouse gases that can have hundreds of times more warming potential than CO2. 

According to a study published by climate thinktank iForest last year, Indian households with air conditioning are refilling their refrigerants more frequently than the global average. 

It estimates that greenhouse gas emissions from refrigerant release from India’s air conditioners were 52Mt of CO2 equivalent (CO2e) in 2024, likely to increase to 84MtCO2e by 2035.

Cooling access and population data

Government estimates vary on how many Indian households do not own a single air conditioner, with little publicly available data differentiating between cooling devices and a delayed national census. 

India’s national sample survey, published in 2020-21, is the only one of its kind in recent years to separate air-conditioner ownership from air cooler ownership, estimating that only 4.9% of all Indian households owned an air conditioner. 

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The post Analysis: Energy-efficient air conditioning could save Indian homes 69bn rupees a year appeared first on Carbon Brief.

This is a re-post from The Climate Brink

I’ve often come across graphs on social media showing atmospheric CO2 concentrations over time, with various dates of climate agreements highlighted. Shared by doomers and skeptics alike, they are used to argue that the rise of CO2 concentrations is inexorable and has not (or perhaps cannot) be slowed by actions we take.

One example from the Orwellian-named climate skeptic group “Friends of Science”.

On the other hand global CO2 emissions – the very precursors to those concentrations – have largely plateaued. After increasing by more than 20% in the 2000s, CO2 emissions today are a mere 3% higher than they were in 2013. This plateau has been driven in part by a rapid expansion of clean energy globally, with spending on clean energy rising from around $600 billion in 2020 to $2.3 trillion in 2025. At the same time we’ve seen notable reductions in land use emissions associated with reduced rates of deforestation in countries like Brazil.

Figure via Carbon Brief.

So if global CO2 emissions are flattening, why do atmospheric concentrations appear to be growing unabated? The answer is in the persistent nature of atmospheric CO2.

About half of the CO2 humans emit into the atmosphere remains there for at least a century (and about 20% for more than 10,000 years), with the remainder being absorbed by land (mostly vegetation) and ocean (mostly geochemical) carbon sinks. This means that even with flat CO2 emissions we would expect atmospheric CO2 concentrations to increase – that concentrations are approximately the integral of annual emissions.

This means that, generally speaking, if emissions remain flat concentrations would linearly increase. If emissions increase, concentration growth accelerates, while if emissions fall, concentration growth slows down. Its a bit more complicated in practice – unlike for temperatures we can get atmospheric CO2 concentrations to fall if emissions are reduced enough, where sinks take up more CO2 than we emit. But broadly speaking we expect atmospheric CO2 to keep growing until we cut emissions pretty substantially (e.g. to <50% of current levels).

Either way, atmospheric CO2 is better seen as a lagging rather than leading indicator of changes in emissions, as it is harder to see the effects of emissions reductions on concentrations over shorter time periods.

What we can do, however, is use reduced-complexity carbon-cycle models to examine how different atmospheric CO2 concentrations would have been if global emissions had not plateaued. To start with, lets assess what would have happened to global CO2 emissions if they had continued increasing at the ~2.2% per year that we saw in the 2000s. This is shown in the figure below.

Next lets use a reduced complexity carbon cycle model to convert these additional emissions into atmospheric concentrations. Here I am using the Joos et al (2013) impulse response function which describes the fraction of a one-year pulse of CO? that stays in the atmosphere as the ocean and land sinks gradually draw it down. These pulses are then convolved into changes in atmospheric concentrations over time.

Here we see that atmospheric CO2 concentrations would have been approximately 8 ppm higher if global emissions had not plateaued over the past 13 years.

Finally, lets add in annual variability in atmospheric CO2, both observed (blue line) and modeled (red line).

We can also extend this all the way back to the start of the record. As expected, a plateauing of global CO2 emissions transitioned us from an accelerated growth rate to a more linear growth rate. Its not a dramatic swing – global CO2 emissions remain at above 40 billion tons per year! – but its at least some detectable progress away from a much worse emissions future.

What are the takeaways here? Atmospheric CO2 concentrations are still climbing despite some success in flattening global emissions. But this is generally what we’d expect; if emissions had continued to increase concentrations would be noticeably higher and accelerating rather than exhibiting a more linear increase. Observed increases in atmospheric CO2 are, if anything, a bit on the low end (though still in the uncertainty range) of what the model expects based on observed emissions.1 I’ve included a more detailed writeup and code to reproduce this analysis on my GitHub here.

So next time someone shows you a graph of CO2 concentrations and argues that nothing is changing, you can show them how much worse it would have been had we really done nothing to change our emissions trajectory.

Update

I got a number of questions from folks about the role of slower growth in fossil emissions vs falling land use emissions in driving these changes. It turns out that around 78% of the avoided increase in atmospheric CO2 is attributable to fossil emissions, and 22% to land use. The GitHub repo has more details on this sensitivity test.

1 This suggests that it is our emissions, not recent changes in carbon cycle feedbacks, that are the main driver of growth in atmospheric concentrations. That being said, we still expect some weakening of carbon sinks in a warmer world – something we have started to see in the data.

Amid reports that the government could weaken the UK’s electric vehicle (EV) targets, Carbon Brief analysis reveals the nation’s EV drivers are saving more than £1,100 a year in fuel costs, compared with running a petrol car.

Battery EVs (BEVs) are roughly four times more efficient than combustion-engine cars, making them far cheaper to run – particularly since the Iran crisis caused a spike in fossil-fuel prices.

The savings from driving BEVs are also more than three times higher than for “plug-in” hybrids (PHEVs), which evidence shows are mostly driven with their combustion engines.

In total, the more than 2m BEVs, 1m PHEVs and 100,000 electric vans on UK roads are saving drivers around £3bn a year, Carbon Brief’s analysis shows, as illustrated in the figure below.

In addition, these EVs are avoiding the need for nearly 2.5bn litres of fuel and cutting carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions by nearly 7m tonnes each year.

Total annual fuel cost savings from the UK’s fleet of battery EVs, plug-in hybrids and electric vans, £bn. Figures for 2026 based on EVs on the road as of May 2026 and the latest road fuel prices. Analysis based on 80% home charging at cheap overnight rates and 20% public charging. Savings can reach £1,400 a year with exclusive home charging. Source: Carbon Brief analysis.

Despite recent news that EVs are now cheaper to buy than petrol cars, as well as having far lower running costs, BBC News says the government is “set to water down” its EV sales targets.

The broadcaster explains that the current goal, under the UK’s “zero-emissions vehicle” (ZEV) mandate, is for 80% of new car sales to be BEVs by 2030.

It says that the government is set to consult on weakening this to between 50% and 70%, following “lobbying” by carmakers and trade unions.

According to the Sunday Times, prime minister Keir Starmer “is understood to have overruled the energy secretary [Ed Miliband] after sustained pressure from industry, the Unite union and Peter Kyle, the business secretary”.

The car industry has consistently claimed there is insufficient demand for BEVs to meet the targets under the ZEV mandate, yet the government says manufacturers have “over-complied” to date. Independent analysts say the industry is on track to continue beating the ZEV mandate goals.

The industry has been able to beat its targets by using a wide range of “flexibilities”, which were introduced after a previous round of lobbying. These allow carmarkers to meet part of their EV targets by selling more efficient combustion cars, such as hybrids and plug-in hybrids.

The ZEV mandate is the single-largest part of the government’s plans to meet its legally binding climate goals over the next decade.

The advisory Climate Change Committee (CCC) previously warned that the extra flexibilities would result in a larger number of hybrids being sold, at the expense of battery EVs.

When it consulted on the ZEV mandate in 2023, the then-Conservative government noted that PHEVs do not deliver the cost and CO2 savings they are advertised with.

It pointed to “dramatic” differences between the performance of PHEVs in test cycles and what they deliver under real-world conditions.

In practice, less than a third of miles driven in PHEVs are fuelled by electricity, with petrol making up the rest. As a result, cost and CO2 savings from BEVs are three times larger than for PHEVs.

Analysis: Solar overtakes gas power in Asia for first time ever

Renewables

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12.06.26

Analysis: Wind and solar have saved UK from gas imports worth £1.7bn since Iran war began

Renewables

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07.05.26

Q&A: How the UK government aims to ‘break link between gas and electricity prices’

Renewables

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21.04.26

Clean energy pushes fossil-fuel power into reverse for ‘first time ever’

Renewables

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21.04.26

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The post Analysis: UK’s EV drivers are now saving £1,100 each a year – and £3bn in total appeared first on Carbon Brief.

A listing of 28 news and opinion articles we found interesting and shared on social media during the past week: Sun, June 7, 2026 thru Sat, June 13, 2026. Stories we promoted this week, by category:

Climate Change Impacts (7 articles)

• What happens when the world`s breadbaskets start failing simultaneously? The Conversation, Ekamjot Dhillon, Jun 07, 2026.
• This 1,000-year-old pine tree`s protector fears changing weather patterns Mayors from around the world gathered last week in Huangshan to discuss how to protect their cities from climate change and overtourism. NBC News World News, Jennifer Jett, Jun 07, 2026.
• `Severe` stress on oceans as rate of sea level rise doubles in 10 years, UN warns Global effort needed to limit effects of pollution, industrial fishing and climate crisis, World Ocean Assessment says. The Guardian, Karen McVeigh, Jun 08, 2026.
• Climate change has already made Australians in one state much poorer, and more`s to come Researchers ask ''“What would the Australian state of New South Wales economy look like today if historical emissions of greenhouse gases had not caused climate change?'' English, Timothy Neal, Senior lecturer in Economics and the Institute for Climate Risk and Response, UNSW Sydney, Ben Newell, Professor of Cognitive Psychology and Director of the Institute for Climate Risk and Response, UNSW Sydney, Jun 09, 2026.
• Four days of extreme rain in Indonesia killed 7% of world`s rarest great apes, study finds Critically endangered Tapanuli orangutan population falls after heavy rain and landslides, fuelled by climate crisis, in North Sumatra The Guardian, Katie Ward, Jun 10, 2026.
• How Climate Change is Making Your Life More Expensive Extreme weather driven by climate change is pushing up prices for everyone. TIME, Simmone Shah, Jun 11, 2026.
• Millions of homes in London, Essex and Kent at risk of sinking as UK heats up Hotter and drier weather in the UK means the ground underneath homes could shrink in a process known as subsidence, dragging foundations down, according to the British Geological Survey (BGS). The Independent News, Nicole Wootton-Cane, Jun 11, 2026.

Climate Science and Research (5 articles)

• The weather and climate science AI revolution isn`t revolutionary Machine learning has its limits—how is it being used? Ars Technica, Scott K. Johnson, Jun 08, 2026.
• Ocean monitoring is in trouble: without the US, it`s up to Europe and Asia to avoid losing sight of the world`s deep-sea ecosystems The world relies on a modest number of countries to keep watch over the ocean and that arrangement is starting to fail; Europe and Asia must now decide whether to let the system unravel, or to take it up together. English, Sabrina Speich, John Abraham, Kevin Trenberth, Lijing Cheng, Jun 09, 2026.
• Plateauing CO2 emissions have slowed atmospheric growth CO2 concentrations have continued to increase – but more slowly than they otherwise would have. The Climate Brink, Zeke Hausfather, Jun 09, 2026.
• Inside the campaign to discredit a key climate science report An emerging field of research that can measure how much climate change has worsened individual disasters is under attack by friends of the fossil fuel industry, with billions of dollars at stake. Politico, Corbin Hiar, Lesley Clark and Chelsea Harvey, Jun 11, 2026.
• The Climate Change Culprits Not Addressed by Global Policy A new paper suggests that 15 percent of human-driven global warming has come from indirectly created greenhouse gases, off the books from current control plans. Inside Climate News, Nina Sablan, Jun 12, 2026.

Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation (4 articles)

• Are Australia`s carbon farming schemes just hot air? Hardly - forests are regrowing almost everywhere The Conversation, Cris Brack, Jun 07, 2026.
• Airline industry chiefs say 2050 net zero goal now unlikely Iata boss Willie Walsh blames fuel suppliers, governments and aircraft makers, saying new ‘realistic timeline’ now needed The Guardian, Gwyn Topham, Jun 08, 2026.
• Round-the-Clock Renewables Beat Fossil Fuels Climate Adam on Youtube, Adam Levy, June 11, 2026.
• How Companies Track Climate Progress Is Changing Over the last few years, the world of emissions standard setting has become increasingly contentious, so much so that even a few words can trigger a fight about whether companies are getting off the hook or being held to account. TIME, Justin Worland, Jun 12, 2026.

Climate Policy and Politics (3 articles)

• Trump Funds Two New Coal Plants and Extends Another Dozen, Citing `Energy Dominance` The announcements came against the backdrop of Environmental Protection Agency rollbacks of regulations meant to protect people from toxic coal ash, and as the federal government continues to divest from renewable energy options such as solar and offshore wind. Inside Climate News, Steven Rodas, Jun 06, 2026.
• Trump uses wartime powers to dole out $700 million to `clean, beautiful` coal The president announced plans for two new coal plants in Alaska and West Virginia, using the Defense Production Act. Grist, Oliver Milman, Jun 07, 2026.
• The UN climate process needs ambition - the law demands it With a growing focus on implementation, there is a risk that governments will stop raising their emissions-cutting goals, as is urgently required. Climate Home News, Helen Popper, Jun 09, 2026.

Miscellaneous (3 articles)

• 2026 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #23 A listing of 28 news and opinion articles we found interesting and shared on social media during the past week: Sun, May 31, 2026 thru Sat, June 6, 2026. Skeptical Science, Bärbel Winkler & Doug Bostrom, Jun 07, 2026.
• Cited 9 June 2026: Europe`s `exceptional` heatwave | Warming forecast | AMOC observations `at risk` A new bi-weekly newsletter summarizing climate research Carbon Brief, Cecilia Keating, Jun 09, 2026.
• Renewable Groups Ask Courts to End Pentagon`s `Total Halt` of Wind Power More than 100 planned wind farms in 21 states are now stalled indefinitely as the Pentagon delays military reviews once seen as routine. New York Times, Brad Plumer, Jun 12, 2026.

Climate Education and Communication (2 articles)

• Climate crisis or climate progress? Two leading scientists separate fear from fact Anastasia Isyuk from the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) communications team sat down with two climate experts: Katharine Hayhoe, one of the world’s best-known climate researchers, and Andrea Hinwood, UNEP’s Chief Scientist. UN Environment Program, Anastasia Isyuk, May 29, 2026.
• A new DC `museum` raises awareness about the looming consequences of extreme weather At the Museum of Unnatural Disasters, members of Congress, disaster survivors and activists are bringing their worries about preparedness to the seat of power. Inside Climate News, Gabriel Matias Castilho, Jun 08, 2026.

Climate Law and Justice (2 articles)

• UN officials urge Russia to free Indigenous climate advocate Egereva in particular has been a fixture in international climate discussions and was arrested in December shortly after returning from COP where she spoke publicly on the importance of having more Indigenous women participate in climate talks. Grist, Anita Hofschneider, Jun 10, 2026.
• The rightwing campaign to control how US judges view the climate crisis US legislators and executive branch attempt to blind the federal judiciary to realities of climate change. The Guardian, Dharna Noor, Jun 10, 2026.

International Climate Conferences and Agreements (1 article)

• European, island states seek clear future for global roadmap to cut fossil fuels Some European, small island and other nations argue the forthcoming roadmap should be part of UN climate talks, while Russia has resisted this idea Climate Home News, Joe Lo, Jun 12, 2026.

Public Misunderstandings about Climate Science (1 article)

• Have politics finally come for the National Academies of Science? Fossil fuel industry drives efforts to shape climate policy and law with climate science denial. Ars Technica, John Timmer, Jun 12, 2026.

If you happen upon high quality climate-science and/or climate-myth busting articles from reliable sources while surfing the web, please feel free to submit them via this Google form so that we may share them widely. Thanks!

Welcome to Carbon Brief’s DeBriefed. 
An essential guide to the week’s key developments relating to climate change.

This week El Niño begins

‘DOMINO WEATHER’: The natural weather phenomenon El Niño, which can raise global heat and “bring domino weather effects across the planet”, is now underway, the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) declared on Thursday, reported the Washington Post. The Japanese Meteorological Administration also identified the start of El Niño on Wednesday, said Bloomberg. According to the Japanese weather agency, the event is “expected to intensify in the coming months and become very strong later in the year, persisting into at least December”, reported the outlet.

‘SUPER EVENT’: BBC News reported that “many forecasts suggest this could end up as a so-called ‘super’ El Niño” and be “among the strongest ever recorded”. It added: “Coming on top of decades of human-caused warming, it could bring another record-hot year – most likely in 2027 – with disruption to weather, food supplies and economies running well into that year.”

COP31 hosts eye electrification

‘35 BY 35’: COP31 hosts Turkey and Australia have called for countries to support a target of electrifying 35% of global energy use by 2035, reported Politico. Speaking at climate talks in Bonn, Germany, Turkish minister Murat Kurum said that electrification would be a “flagship priority” at the COP31 summit, noted the publication. Kurum added that “electrifying daily life, from transport to buildings and industry” could “protect families and businesses from volatile energy markets”, said the outlet.

WASTE AND BUILDINGS: Climate Home News reported that electrification was one of three priorities unveiled by the COP31 hosts, with the other two being waste and buildings. On buildings, the COP31 hosts “quietly overhauled [their] goal”, Climate Home News said. It reported: “An initial press statement on Monday set out a target ‘to achieve at least a 25% increase in energy efficiency in buildings by 2035’. But…on Tuesday, that was replaced with a different goal to ‘reduce energy consumption intensity in the building sector by at least 25% by 2035’.”

‘HARDEST’ CHALLENGE: Elsewhere in Bonn, UN climate chief Simon Stiell said “governments must stop revisiting climate commitments and start delivering on them”, South Africa’s Mail and Guardian reported. It quoted Stiell as saying: “Tackling the global climate crisis is the hardest but most important thing humanity has ever tried to do together…We are not yet where we need to be. But we are somewhere we have never been before.”

Around the world

• ETS EXTRA: The EU has agreed “stronger” price controls on “ETS2”, its planned trading system for heating and transport emissions, according to Reuters.
• OCEAN STRESS: The rate of sea level rise has doubled in 10 years amid “severe and accelerating” pressures on oceans, said a UN report covered by Time.
• CLIMATE MIGRANTS: Donald Trump’s “immigration crackdown is largely targeting people from the countries most vulnerable to displacement from climate-driven disasters”, according to Guardian analysis.
• ULTRA-RICH: Investments by the world’s ultra-rich in 2022 are linked to nearly $1tn in climate damages, according to a Greenpeace Africa analysis covered by BusinessGreen.

Two

The number of bidders for Trump’s auction for drilling rights in an Arctic wildlife refuge, with big oil companies “sitting out the sale”, reported Bloomberg.

Latest climate research

• As the Arctic warms, increased iceberg activity could “reshape” deep-sea habitats and “elevate” navigational hazards as maritime traffic expands | Nature
• Around 11% of the population of the world’s “rarest great ape”, the Tapanuli orangutan, is estimated to have perished in an extreme rainfall event in Indonesia in 2025 | Current Biology
• Canada’s forests are shifting from a carbon sink to a carbon source, due to “wildfires disturbances” | Global Change Biology

(For more, see Carbon Brief’s in-depth daily summaries of the top climate news stories on Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday and Friday.)

Captured

Solar power has overtaken gas in Asia to become the region’s third largest electricity source behind coal and hydropower, according to Carbon Brief analysis of data from the thinktank Ember. Solar became the third largest electricity source for Asia on an annual basis in April 2026, according to the analysis. In the year to April 2026, solar generated 1,727 terawatt hours (TWh), while gas generated 1,711TWh, it added.

Spotlight Atlantic current monitoring at risk

This week, Carbon Brief reports on how Trump plans could disrupt efforts to track a major ocean current.

The Irminger Sea, a patch of frigid ocean east of Greenland, plays an outsized role in the Earth’s climate. 

Here, surface water that has travelled thousands of kilometres from the tropics grows cold and dense enough to sink to the ocean’s depths – a transformation that must occur for the water to begin a long journey back to the southern hemisphere.

This makes the Irminger Sea an “action centre” for the mighty Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), the vast system of ocean currents that keeps temperatures in Europe mild.

Last week, the US government announced plans to dismantle ocean moorings installed in the Irminger Sea which, among other things, collect data on the health of the AMOC.

This came as part of a programme to “descope” the Ocean Observatories Initiative, a $368m network of ocean sensors installed in the Pacific and Atlantic oceans.

Two of the moorings earmarked for removal in the Irminger Sea form part of an internationally funded, trans-Atlantic AMOC monitoring array, known as OSNAP, that stretches from Canada to Scotland.

Experts told Carbon Brief the move by the Trump administration highlights the vulnerability of AMOC observation systems around the world. These deep-sea moorings – scattered across the Atlantic – collect real-time data on, among other things, ocean current, temperature, pressure and biochemistry.

Prof Penny Holliday, chief scientific officer of the UK National Oceanography Centre, told Carbon Brief that the OSNAP array, as well as the RAPID array at 26N, are “entirely dependent” on research grants that have to be “continually reapplied for”. 

“Funding is perilous all the time,” she said.

A report prepared last month by scientists for Nordic ministers exploring the security of funding for AMOC observing systems warned that RAPID and OSNAP were in “critical condition” and faced “material exposure over an 18-month horizon”. Meanwhile, other key basin-wide and global components of the global AMOC observing system were rated as “at risk”.

It is not just US funding that is uncertain. The report notes, for example, that the five-yearly funding the UK provides to RAPID and OSNAP is “at risk from 2027 due to year-on-year budget reductions” at the Natural Environmental Research Council. 

(RAPID is funded by the US and UK, whereas OSNAP is backed by five different countries, with the US contributing half of the total financial support.)

Report co-author Dr Femke de Jong from the Royal Netherlands Institute for Sea Research told Carbon Brief that “continued AMOC observations” are under pressure in “multiple countries”. She said:

“While the risk of a declining AMOC to society is starting to be recognised, there is not yet a system or institution in place to guarantee a way to monitor it.”

AMOC monitoring arrays are still in their infancy – RAPID, the oldest, was launched in 2004. Two decades of data captured so far shows that the AMOC is slowing down. However, scientists will need many more years of data to be able to confidently link the decline to climate change, rather than natural variability in the ocean. 

NOC’s Holliday points to the disconnect between scientific and funder timelines:

“The timescale of observations needed in order to be able to detect a climate change signal from the very naturally variable ocean is around 40-60 years…. [And yet], in the Netherlands, they have to apply for a new grant for their ocean moorings every two years. They are going to have to do that for 40 years. 

“This is a very inefficient way of getting funding for what should be critical infrastructure.”

This spotlight first appeared in Cited, Carbon Brief’s new fortnightly newsletter focused on climate research. Sign up for free.

Watch, read, listen

‘BEYOND GROWTH’: A group of economists set out a “roadmap for eradicating poverty beyond growth” in the Guardian.

OIL CAMPAIGN: Politico reported on how “oil industry allies” are campaigning against attribution science, including by working to discredit a US National Academies report that “will examine research into the ways corporate climate pollution is intensifying natural disasters”.

‘FIGHT BACK’: For the Apocalyptic Optimist podcast, Dr Dana Fisher spoke to historian and author Dr Naomi Oreskes about how to “fight back” against climate misinformation.

Coming up

• 8-18 June: Bonn climate talks, Bonn, Germany 
• 16-18 June: 11th Our ocean conference, Mombasa, Kenya
• 18 June: International Energy Agency Global Hydrogen Review 2026 report launch

Pick of the jobs

• S-Curve Economics, head of road transport | Salary: £75,000-£80,000. Location: Remote (UK)
• UK Department for Energy Security and Net-Zero, speechwriter to the secretary of state | Salary: £62,595-£69,765. Location: London (hybrid)
• Basque Centre for Climate Change, postdoctoral researcher for JustBioSolar project | Salary: €27,040-€34,320. Location: Bilbao, Spain
• Boston Globe climate science and environment reporter | Salary: Unknown. Location: Boston, US

DeBriefed is edited by Daisy Dunne. Please send any tips or feedback to debriefed@carbonbrief.org.

This is an online version of Carbon Brief’s weekly DeBriefed email newsletter. Subscribe for free here.

DeBriefed 5 June 2026: UK eyes 2040 emissions cut | US ‘dismantling’ oceans research | China’s solar slump

DeBriefed

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05.06.26

DeBriefed 29 May 2026: Europe’s ‘mind-boggling’ May | Indian heat deaths | Nigeria’s solar mini-grids

DeBriefed

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29.05.26

DeBriefed 22 May 2026: UN adopts landmark resolution | Trump takes on ‘RCP8.5’ | Climate migration

DeBriefed

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22.05.26

DeBriefed 15 May 2026: Trump-Xi talk energy | ‘Supercharged’ El Niño | India’s first ‘heat lounges’

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15.05.26

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The post DeBriefed 12 June 2026: El Niño begins | COP31 hosts eye electrification | Atlantic current monitoring at risk appeared first on Carbon Brief.

Solar has overtaken gas power in Asia to become the continent’s third-largest source of electricity, according to new analysis by Carbon Brief.

The rapid expansion of solar power in nations such as China, India and Pakistan has seen its annual output increase nearly fourfold since 2020.

Asia accounts for around 60% of the world’s solar-power growth in this period, putting the continent at the heart of the global solar boom.

Coal and hydropower remain Asia’s largest sources of electricity, generating roughly 52% and 12% of the continent’s power each year, respectively.

Yet despite expectations that gas power would undergo “explosive growth” in the region, output has stalled due to supply disruptions, relatively high gas prices and growth in clean alternatives.

In contrast, solar has surged, generating some 1,727 terawatt hours (TWh) of electricity in the 12 months to April 2026.

As the chart below shows, this pushes it just ahead of gas, which generated 1,711TWh over the same period and has remained roughly flat for the past several years.

Electricity generation from solar (red) and gas (blue), TWh, on an annualised basis between December 2019 and May 2026. Source: Carbon Brief analysis of Ember data.

The milestone reflects wider trends in the global electricity mix, with monthly generation from both wind and solar surpassing gas generation globally for the first time in April 2026.

Asia’s solar expansion has been driven largely by China, which accounts for nearly three-quarters of the growth in the region’s output since 2020.

Record installations in 2025 took China’s cumulative installed capacity to 1.2 terawatts (TW) by the end of the year.

China also dominates global solar supply chains, hosting more than 80% of solar manufacturing capacity.

This means it has played an important role in enabling solar deployment in other Asian countries through cheap solar-panel exports. Amid the energy crisis sparked by the Iran war, Chinese solar exports to Asia doubled to reach a record 39 gigawatts (GW) in March 2026.

Meanwhile, Asian countries have faced a number of challenges in expanding gas-power capacity. Most of these nations are reliant on imported liquified natural gas (LNG) to support their gas-power projects.

Around 81GW of planned gas capacity in Asia was cancelled in 2022 and 2023, amid LNG supply disruptions and price spikes following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

LNG import terminals and pipelines have faced delays and cancellations in south Asia and South Korea as a result of rising fuel and construction costs, as well as weak demand for gas power.

Global gas turbine shortages have also delayed plans to build new gas-power plants in Vietnam and the Philippines.

While Asia’s gas-power capacity increased by 22% between 2019 and 2024, gas-fired generation has only increased by a modest 6% over the same period. Existing gas plants are not always operating at high capacities, as gas is outcompeted by other fuels.

These trends are not uniform across the region, with increased generation in some countries – such as China and Taiwan – being offset by declines in others – such as Japan and India.

Although China has nearly doubled its gas -power generation in the past decade, gas supply issues and high prices make it less competitive than coal and renewables.

The expansion of clean energy has also reduced the need for gas-fired generation in many Asian countries. Pakistan’s widely reported “boom” in rooftop solar is one notable example of this trend.

According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), the latest energy crisis has “renewed gas supply reliability and affordability concerns” among gas-importing countries in Asia, many of which are highly dependent on gas flows through the strait of Hormuz.

Methodology

The figures in this article are based on Ember’s monthly and annual electricity data for Asia.

Annual data was used for the year-end data points, as the coverage is more complete compared to the monthly data.

Rolling annual totals based on monthly data were used to interpolate between the annual data points.

The figures in the chart are based on Ember’s definition of Asia, which covers the following countries: Afghanistan, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, Brunei, Cambodia, China, Georgia, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, Japan, Kazakhstan, North Korea, Kyrgyzstan, Laos, Macao, Malaysia, Maldives, Mongolia, Myanmar, Nepal, Pakistan, the Philippines, Singapore, South Korea, Sri Lanka, Taiwan, Tajikistan, Thailand, Timor-Leste, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan and Vietnam.

This does not include some countries that are part of the continent of Asia and that use relatively large amounts of gas, such as Iran, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Russia.

Analysis: Wind and solar have saved UK from gas imports worth £1.7bn since Iran war began

Renewables

|

07.05.26

Q&A: How the UK government aims to ‘break link between gas and electricity prices’

Renewables

|

21.04.26

Clean energy pushes fossil-fuel power into reverse for ‘first time ever’

Renewables

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21.04.26

Analysis: Record wind and solar saved UK from gas imports worth £1bn in March 2026

Renewables

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02.04.26

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The post Analysis: Solar overtakes gas power in Asia for first time ever appeared first on Carbon Brief.

Open access notables

Emergence of Uncompensable Heat Stress During Monsoon Season in India, Chuphal et al., AGU Advances

Uncompensable heat stress (UHS), characterized by the loss of homeostasis due to excessive environmental thermal loading, causes substantial heat-related health risks in India. However, the spatial and seasonal heterogeneity, as well as temporal changes of UHS in India remain poorly understood. Using observations, reanalysis data, and climate model projections, we highlight the surge of UHS during the monsoon season (July–October) as the climate warms. In the observed period (1979–2021), the frequency and area affected by UHS have increased significantly across India. The observed UHS is more prevalent in summer (March–June) and affects 8% of India, whereas only 1% of the country is affected in the monsoon season. The summer UHS is also more strongly associated with annual heat-related mortality (R2 = 0.38). However, the monsoon season (July-October) UHS, predominantly characterized by hot-humid conditions, is projected to increase rapidly with climate warming and affect nearly equivalent areas of the country as the summer season (60% in summer and 53% in the monsoon season) under 2°C warming relative to the preindustrial period. This will create long-lasting UHS across both seasons, posing critical challenges to public health, labor productivity, and climate resilience in densely populated and vulnerable regions.

Brief communication: Sea-level projections, adaptation planning, and actionable science, Lipscomb et al., cryosphere

As climate scientists seek to deliver actionable science for adaptation planning, there are risks in using novel results to inform decision-making. Premature acceptance may lead to maladaptation, practitioner confusion, and “whiplash”. We propose that scientific claims should be considered actionable (i.e., sufficiently accepted to support near-term adaptation action) only after meeting a confidence threshold based on the strength of evidence as evaluated by a diverse group of scientific experts. We discuss an influential study that projected rapid sea-level rise from Antarctic ice-sheet retreat but in our view was not actionable. We recommend regular, transparent communications between scientists and practitioners to support the use of actionable science.

Hello world! An interdisciplinary climate modelling course, Proske & Staab, Geoscience Communication

Climate models are not just physics translated into computer code. They are powerful actors influencing and influenced by humans. Thus modelers need to learn and modelling courses need to teach not only the techniques of numerical discretisation and the physical understanding of the climate system, but also the underlying motivations, the uncertainties and the societal embededness of the modelling approach. Following a design-based research approach, this study develops a 50 h long course at Bachelor level that aims to teach students such interdisciplinary perspectives. With a reflective open-ended exercise, we elicit students' learning process through challenging climate modelling topics. We find that the students learn to appreciate the complexity of climate models and the intricacies of scientific practice itself, highlighting for example the role of values in science. The exercise reveals few misconceptions and no major hurdles in the students' learning that may have been expected from the interdisciplinary nature of the material. We thus conclude that the course is a practice-proven approach to teaching the physical basis of climate modelling as well as its critical reflection. 

Rapid artificial intelligence deployment increases near-term pressure on global carbon budgets, Charabi, Communications Earth & Environment

Limiting warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius depends on cumulative carbon dioxide emissions, not only on whether annual emissions eventually balance. Artificial intelligence is increasingly promoted as a tool for reducing emissions, but its supporting digital infrastructure produces emissions before many system-level benefits are realized. Here, we evaluate this timing mismatch using a probabilistic numerical cumulative carbon accounting model calibrated to International Energy Agency artificial-intelligence and energy scenarios through 2035. The model combines operational emissions, embodied emissions, and delayed system-level savings. Across 10,000 Monte Carlo realizations, the accelerated Lift-Off pathway yields a median cumulative carbon debt of 2.85 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide before annual savings exceed annual infrastructure-related emissions in late 2031. Across scenarios, the carbon imbalance varies with deployment speed, grid decarbonization, and the coupling between infrastructure growth and mitigation-relevant applications. These results indicate that rapid artificial-intelligence deployment can increase near-term pressure on the remaining 1.5 degrees Celsius carbon budget.

From this week's government/NGO section:

Temperature Check 2025–26, The Center for Climate Journalism and Communication, University of Southern California

Even though fewer Americans now hear about global warming and climate change through news, newspapers are still the top source of information for climate communicators. Climate communicators still prefer LinkedIn as their go-to social media platform for climate information, followed by Instagram and BlueSky. The use of X/Twitter for engaging in climate media continues to drop even more among climate communicators. Climate communicators are most concerned about the lack of climate action, global warming and the health impacts of climate change this year. Yet, the authors' survey shows climate communicators are also increasingly avoiding terms and phrases such as “climate change” and “global warming,” likely due to increasing politicization of the terms as well as pushback from the government as well as the public.

Climate Change in the American Mind: Politics & Policy, Spring 2026, Leiserowitz et al., Yale University and George Mason University

With the primaries in the 2026 midterm elections underway, the authors found that 58% of registered voters prefer to vote for a candidate for public office who supports action on global warming, while 14% prefer to vote for a candidate who opposes action. 42% would like to hear from political candidates more often about efforts to reduce global warming, while 23% would like to hear about this less often. 31% will only vote for a congressional candidate who supports increasing the use of renewable energy, while 7% will only vote for a candidate who supports decreasing the use of renewable energy. 25% will only vote for a candidate who supports decreasing the use of fossil fuels, while 14% will only vote for a candidate who supports increasing the use of fossil fuels. 161 articles in 66 journals by 1249 contributing authors

This edition includes an unusually large number of articles, with some being rather old. This is a result of our correcting a bibliographic database query problem. In the interest of completeness of our internal database wer're integrating older items affected by this quirk. This edition takes a large initial bite out of the backlog and we'll then will meter out the remainder over the coming few weeks.

Physical science of climate change, effects

Atlantic multidecadal variability amplifies decadal variability in the Kuroshio–Oyashio Extension region under global warming, Wang et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-026-03750-2

Constraints on Climate Change Stabilization Based on Observations of Earth's Energy Imbalance, Douville & Allan, Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2025gl121056

Current and Future Changes in Earth's Outgoing Infrared Spectrum, Shaw et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2026gl121893

Decoupling greenhouse gas and paleogeographic effects on Pacific decadal climate variability, Wu et al., Global and Planetary Change 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2026.105558

Differential Synoptic Circulation Forcing of Land and Coastal Heatwaves, Zhang et al., Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres 10.1029/2026jd046358

Differential Synoptic Circulation Forcing of Land and Coastal Heatwaves, Zhang et al., Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres 10.1029/2026jd046358

Divergent regional responses of soil moisture-air temperature coupling under future climate scenarios, Hagan et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-026-74040-w

Elevation-dependent warming: observations, models, and energetic mechanisms, Byrne et al., Weather and Climate Dynamics Open Access pdf 10.5194/wcd-5-763-2024

High-latitude Southern Ocean warming hotspot induced by ocean mesoscale eddies, Li et al., Nature Climate Change Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41558-026-02652-7

Interdependent Extratropical Atmospheric Responses to Arctic Sea Ice Loss, QBO, and ENSO, Walsh et al., Journal of Climate Open Access 10.1175/jcli-d-24-0518.1

Mechanisms Driving CO2 Instantaneous Radiative Forcing Enhancement in Warmer Climates, Wang et al., Journal of Climate 10.1175/jcli-d-25-0569.1

Multidecadal Atlantic “Warming Hole” Heat Content Variations Are Caused by Ocean Heat Transport, Not by Surface Fluxes, Rahmstorf et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2025gl118383

Multidecadal Atlantic “Warming Hole” Heat Content Variations Are Caused by Ocean Heat Transport, Not by Surface Fluxes, Rahmstorf et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2025gl118383

Observational constraints from global ice-phase fraction indicate moderate climate sensitivity, Zhou et al., Science Advances Open Access 10.1126/sciadv.aea0731

On the Role of Ocean Dynamics in Polar-Amplified Climate Change, Shakespeare, Journal of Climate 10.1175/jcli-d-25-0193.1

Polar processes set Arctic marine heatwaves apart, Athanase et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-026-03735-1

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Changes in Compound Hot Extremes over the Mid–High Latitudes of Asia and the Underlying Mechanisms, Journal of Climate, 10.1175/jcli-d-23-0502.1 4 cites.

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Observations of climate change, effects

Compound weather and climate events in 2025, Raymond et al., Nature Reviews Earth & Environment 10.1038/s43017-026-00797-9

Emergence of Uncompensable Heat Stress During Monsoon Season in India, Chuphal et al., AGU Advances Open Access 10.1029/2025av001945

Emerging Effective Radiative Forcing in the Radiative Imbalance Since 2010, Yukimoto et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1029/2025gl119913

Historical Increase in Autumn and Winter Cyclone-Associated Precipitation Over the Arctic Ocean Driven Primarily by Enhanced Arctic Evaporation, Crawford et al., Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres Open Access 10.1029/2025jd045523

Human-induced westerly jet shifts coordinate terrestrial productivity at the hemispheric scale, Yang et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-026-74039-3

Sudden, local temperature increase above the continental slope in the southern Weddell Sea, Antarctica, Darelius et al., Ocean science Open Access 10.5194/os-19-671-2023

The Fate of Western Headwaters: Climate Controls on Base-Flow Decline, Mroczek et al., Earth s Future Open Access 10.1029/2025ef007971

Unveiling the Climate Type Shifts: The Dominant Role of Anthropogenic Activities, Zhang et al., Anthropocene 10.1016/j.ancene.2026.100558

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Analysis of tropical nights in Spain (1970–2023): Minimum temperatures as an indicator of climate change, International Journal of Climatology, 10.1002/joc.8510 19 cites.

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Instrumentation & observational methods of climate change, effects

Cloud parameter retrieval based on satellite data: A review of methods, advances, and challenges, Li et al., Atmospheric Research 10.1016/j.atmosres.2026.109130

Combining Observations, Forecasts, and Projections into Seamless Climate Information: Recent Advances and Insights in User Applications, Sarojini et al., Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society Open Access 10.1175/bams-d-26-0079.1

Data supporting the North Atlantic Climate System: Integrated Studies (ACSIS) programme, including atmospheric composition, oceanographic and sea ice observations (2016–2022) and output from ocean, atmosphere, land and sea-ice models (1950–2050), Archibald et al., Earth system science data Open Access pdf 10.5194/essd-17-135-2025

Machine learning-based assessment of climate change impacts on hydrological drought in the Yangtze River Basin, 1985–2020, WANG et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2026.05.010

Thermo-hydrological river valley observatory in Yedoma permafrost from 2012 through 2022 in Syrdakh, Central Yakutia, Pohl et al., Earth system science data Open Access 10.5194/essd-18-3525-2026

Modeling, simulation & projection of climate change, effects

Enhanced Moisture Uptake Fuels North Atlantic Tropical Easterly Waves Precipitation in a Downscaled CMIP6 Projection, Córdova-García et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2026gl122074

Future Projection of Tropical Upper-Tropospheric Troughs and Implications for Tropical Cyclone Activity, Chang et al., Journal of Climate 10.1175/jcli-d-25-0579.1

Increasing Future Global Compound Heat Flash Droughts and Socioeconomic Exposure, Li et al., Earth s Future Open Access 10.1029/2026ef008096

Near-0°C Temperature Pathways From High-Resolution Simulation in Current and Pseudo-Global Warming Future Over Eastern Canada and United States, Basnet & Thériault, Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres Open Access 10.1029/2025jd045714

Projected changes in forest fire season, the number of fires, and burnt area in Fennoscandia by 2100, Kinnunen et al., Biogeosciences Open Access 10.5194/bg-21-4739-2024

Worst-case European heat storylines generated using ensemble boosting, Suarez-Gutierrez et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-026-03699-2

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Comparative assessment of dry- and humid-heat extremes in a warming climate: Frequency, intensity, and seasonal timing, Weather and Climate Extremes, 10.1016/j.wace.2024.100698 20 cites.

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Advancement of climate & climate effects modeling, simulation & projection

CMIP6 models overestimate sea ice melt, growth and conduction relative to ice mass balance buoy estimates, West & Blockley, Geoscientific model development Open Access pdf 10.5194/gmd-18-3041-2025

Hello world! An interdisciplinary climate modelling course, Proske & Staab, Geoscience Communication Open Access pdf 10.5194/gc-9-239-2026

Transport of warm bias from Indian Ocean subsurface to Southern Ocean surface in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 models, Ma et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-026-03705-7

Tropical impacts of the Southern Ocean underestimated by mean-state biases, Dong et al., Science Advances Open Access 10.1126/sciadv.aed1936

Underestimated Future Wetting in the Arid Region of Northwest China: Impact of Systematic Model Biases in Synoptic Regime Frequency, Guo et al., Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres 10.1029/2026jd046874

Using remote sensing radiation and meteorological data to assess climate change: prediction of extreme weather events in Northeast China, Li et al., Frontiers in Environmental Science Open Access pdf 10.3389/fenvs.2026.1778049

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Delivering an Improved Framework for the New Generation of CMIP6-Driven EURO-CORDEX Regional Climate Simulations, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 10.1175/bams-d-23-0131.1 23 cites.

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Cryosphere & climate change

Arctic Sea Ice Acceleration: Seasonal Pulses, Spatial Contrasts, and a Sea Ice Concentration–Dependent Rheological Threshold, Ouyang et al., Journal of Geophysical Research Oceans 10.1029/2025jc023182

Assessing the susceptibility to thaw settlement hazards in circum-Arctic permafrost regions during 2000?2020, NI et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2026.05.021

Ice-sheet regime shifts with climate warming, Golledge et al., Nature Geoscience 10.1038/s41561-026-02010-4

Ice-Sheet–Ocean Interactions and the Reversibility of a Regime Shift Beneath Filchner-Ronne Ice Shelf, Reese et al., Journal of Geophysical Research Oceans Open Access 10.1029/2025jc023952

Inland migration of near-surface crevasses in the Amundsen Sea Sector, West Antarctica, Hoffman et al., cryosphere Open Access 10.5194/tc-19-1353-2025

Mapping the vertical heterogeneity of Greenland's firn from 2011–2019 using airborne radar and laser altimetry, Rutishauser et al., cryosphere Open Access 10.5194/tc-18-2455-2024

Probabilistic projections of the Amery Ice Shelf catchment, Antarctica, under conditions of high ice-shelf basal melt, Jantre et al., cryosphere Open Access 10.5194/tc-18-5207-2024

Sedimentary insights into organic matter alteration in Arctic Alaska's saline permafrost, Seemann et al., Biogeosciences Open Access pdf 10.5194/bg-23-3675-2026

The influence of ocean waves on Antarctic sea-ice albedo and seasonal melting, and potential coupled physical and biological feedbacks, Massom et al., cryosphere Open Access 10.5194/tc-20-3271-2026

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Snowpack variations and their hazardous effects under climate warming in the central Tianshan Mountains, Advances in Climate Change Research, 10.1016/j.accre.2024.06.001 12 cites.

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Sea level & climate change

Crustal Deformation and Gravitational Effects From Dynamic Ocean Mass Redistribution Impact Projected Sea-Level Change, Ertel et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2026gl122243

Impacts of future sea level change on Greenland from community knowledge, coastal mapping, and glacial isostatic adjustment models, Tinto et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Open Access pdf 10.1073/pnas.2528615123

Sea-level rise is projected to reshape compound flooding potential in microtidal environments along the Spanish Mediterranean coastline, Jiménez et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-026-03712-8

Singular Geological Evidence, Historical Record and Socio-Economic Consequences of Recent Coastal Erosion and Future Sea Level Rise on Tourist Beaches: A Case Study from Southwestern Spain, Izquierdo et al., Journal of Earth Science 10.1007/s12583-025-0303-5

The sea level time series of Trieste, Molo Sartorio, Italy (1869–2021), Raicich, Earth system science data Open Access pdf 10.5194/essd-15-1749-2023

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Sea-level change in coastal areas of China: Status in 2021, Advances in Climate Change Research, 10.1016/j.accre.2024.06.002 11 cites.

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Paleoclimate & paleogeochemistry

Non-linear climatic response to the weakening of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation during glacial times, Du et al., Climate of the past Open Access 10.5194/cp-22-1105-2026

West Antarctic Ice Sheet advance since the early Pliocene, Zhang et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-026-74100-1

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Polar amplification of orbital-scale climate variability in the early Eocene greenhouse world, Climate of the past, 10.5194/cp-20-1303-2024 11 cites.

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Biology & climate change, related geochemistry

A global early warning system for predicting exposure of biodiversity to extreme heat, Serra-Diaz et al., Nature Climate Change 10.1038/s41558-026-02642-9

Amplified Arctic iceberg traffic reshapes benthic biodiversity, Krumpen, Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research) Open Access 10.5281/zenodo.19664564

Anchoring India's Umbrella Species to Biodiversity and Climate Gains, Lamba et al., Conservation Letters Open Access 10.1111/con4.70059

Aridity Modulates the Legacy of Peak Growing Season Precipitation on Tree Growth Across Eurasia, Abudureheman et al., Dendrochronologia 10.1016/j.dendro.2026.126563

Bambusa bambos in Sri Lanka: a native species at the interface of climate resilience and ecological disruption, Madawala, Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution Open Access pdf 10.3389/fevo.2026.1862374

Bleaching, mortality and lengthy recovery on the coral reefs of Lord Howe Island. The 2019 marine heatwave suggests an uncertain future for high-latitude ecosystems, Moriarty et al., PLOS Climate Open Access pdf 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000080

Climate Change Reduces Habitat Suitability of the Endemic Iranian Ground-Jay (Podoces pleskei): Spatial Analyses to Guide Conservation Strategies, Yousefi et al., Ecology and Evolution Open Access 10.1002/ece3.73637

Climate Warming Will Reduce Boreal Forest Litterfall, but the Response Differs Among Plant Functional Types, Thu et al., Ecology and Evolution Open Access 10.1002/ece3.73726

Climate-induced shifts in plant investment strategies regulate ecosystem carbon cycling across alpine grasslands, Althuizen et al., Journal of Ecology Open Access 10.1111/1365-2745.70364

Competition enables rapid adaptation to a warming range edge in a model plant community, Usui & Angert, Science 10.1126/science.ads4664

Deforestation-induced drying lowers Amazon climate threshold, Wunderling et al., Nature Open Access 10.1038/s41586-026-10456-0

Disease, Drought, and Warming: A Triple Threat to a Declining High-Elevation Amphibian, Kissel et al., Ecology and Evolution Open Access 10.1002/ece3.73767

Eco-evolutionary decoupling drives silent ecosystem collapse in the Anthropocene, Mosoh, Frontiers in Climate Open Access 10.3389/fclim.2026.1765410

Glacial Meltwater Impacts Marine Carbonate Chemistry on Iceland's Continental Shelf, Ljungberg et al., Journal of Geophysical Research Oceans Open Access 10.1029/2025jc023671

Integrating Remote Sensing and Machine Learning to Project Global Habitat Suitability and Productivity of Chinese Fir Under Climate Change, Sun et al., Ecology and Evolution Open Access 10.1002/ece3.73757

Modelling the global invasion potential of Pelagia noctiluca under climate change, Nisai et al., Scientific Reports Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41598-026-48886-5

Persistent warm water anomalies before and after marine heatwaves amplify heat exposure and associated risks, Nardi et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-026-03739-x

Reversible Regime Change: Climate-Driven Phytoplankton Community Shifts in the Cariaco Basin, Venezuela, Post et al., Journal of Geophysical Research Biogeosciences Open Access 10.1029/2025jg009360

Snow Gum Dieback Enhances Trunk Monoterpene Emissions in the Australian Alps, Contreras?Serrano et al., Journal of Geophysical Research Biogeosciences Open Access 10.1029/2025jg009577

Static connectivity models underestimate ecological risk under long-term climate and land-use change, Xu et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-026-03707-5

The Mussels That Came in From the Cold: Long-Term Effects of the Population Collapse in the 1960s May Explain Low Abundances of Boreal Mussels in the Subarctic Despite the Warming, Marchenko et al., Ecology and Evolution Open Access 10.1002/ece3.73763

These Boots Are Made for Walking: Sex-Specific Physiological and Metabolomic Strategies Reflect Male-Skewed Vulnerability to Ocean Warming in a Keystone Amphipod, Fernandes et al., Global Change Biology Open Access 10.1111/gcb.70950

Vegetation Growth Responses to Extreme Drought Events During 2001–2016 in Southwest China, Bing et al., Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres 10.1029/2025jd045108

Widespread Aquatic Insect Responses to Recent Warming in Swiss Mountain Lakes, Damber et al., Global Change Biology Open Access 10.1111/gcb.70957

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Global critical soil moisture thresholds of plant water stress, Nature Communications, 10.1038/s41467-024-49244-7 156 cites.

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GHG sources & sinks, flux, related geochemistry

A fixed methane filter maximizes freshwater emissions under warming, Harpenslager et al., Nature Climate Change Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41558-026-02649-2

Annual emissions of carbon from land use, land-use change, and forestry from 1850 to 2020, Houghton & Castanho, Earth system science data Open Access pdf 10.5194/essd-15-2025-2023

Anthropogenic Carbon Isotope Signals in North Atlantic Water Masses at 48°N, Bavoux et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2025gl121339

Assessing recent anthropogenic carbon dioxide and acidification in the Ross Sea, Antarctica, Mo et al., Marine Environmental Research 10.1016/j.marenvres.2026.108125

Canada's Forests Are Shifting From a Recovery-Driven Carbon Sink to a Disturbance-Driven Carbon Source, Curasi et al., Global Change Biology Open Access 10.1111/gcb.70958

Carbon emissions and radiative forcings from tundra wildfires in the Yukon–Kuskokwim River Delta, Alaska, Moubarak et al., Biogeosciences Open Access pdf 10.5194/bg-20-1537-2023

Climate-induced shifts in plant investment strategies regulate ecosystem carbon cycling across alpine grasslands, Althuizen et al., Journal of Ecology Open Access 10.1111/1365-2745.70364

Contrasting carbon cycling in the benthic food webs between a river-fed, high-energy canyon and an upper continental slope, Tung et al., Biogeosciences Open Access pdf 10.5194/bg-21-1729-2024

FluxCANS: A Field Campaign on Carbon, Nitrogen, and Sulfur Fluxes over a Lake–Wetland in the North China Plain, Li et al., Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 10.1175/bams-d-25-0330.1

Integrated perspective on ocean carbon cycle: Untangling facts, fluxes, and fictions, Resplandy et al., Science Advances Open Access 10.1126/sciadv.aed2480

Monitoring urban carbon dioxide emissions from the atmosphere: insights from vertical tower observations in Beijing, China, Liu et al., Atmospheric Environment 10.1016/j.atmosenv.2026.122166

Natural forest expansion is a larger carbon sink than secondary forests in moist tropics, ZHANG et al., Nature Geoscience 10.1038/s41561-026-01984-5

Nitrogen limitation amplifies future warming by weakening terrestrial carbon cycle feedbacks and sink capacity, Tang et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-026-03736-0

Rapid artificial intelligence deployment increases near-term pressure on global carbon budgets, Charabi, Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-026-03746-y

Reply to: The size of tropical vegetation gross primary production, Lai et al., Nature 10.1038/s41586-026-10561-0

Sedimentary insights into organic matter alteration in Arctic Alaska's saline permafrost, Seemann et al., Biogeosciences Open Access pdf 10.5194/bg-23-3675-2026

The Importance of Scale in the Future of Mangrove Blue Carbon Under Sea-Level Rise, Iwantoro et al., Earth s Future Open Access 10.1029/2025ef006984

Wood Decomposition in European Rivers Increases With Temperature but Decreases With Human Population Density, Jonsson et al., Ecology and Evolution Open Access 10.1002/ece3.73821

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
The Growth and Carbon Sink of Tundra Peat Patches in Arctic Alaska, Journal of Geophysical Research Biogeosciences, 10.1029/2023jg007890 19 cites.

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CO2 capture, sequestration science & engineering

Accelerating weathering, lessons from a century of soil rejuvenation, Minasny & Dupla, Frontiers in Climate Open Access pdf 10.3389/fclim.2026.1824420

Analysing policy signals from the US, EU and UN regulations for the deployment of marine carbon dioxide removal, Seralta et al., Climate Policy 10.1080/14693062.2026.2678303

Early engagement with First Nations in British Columbia, Canada: a case study for assessing the feasibility of geological carbon storage, Steinthorsdottir et al., Geoscience Communication Open Access pdf 10.5194/gc-8-151-2025

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Graphene membranes with pyridinic nitrogen at pore edges for high-performance CO2 capture, Nature Energy, 10.1038/s41560-024-01556-0 68 cites.

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Decarbonization

Aquavoltaics knowledge gaps undercut benefits, Liu et al., Science 10.1126/science.aeh2751

Climate (im)mobility justice under transboundary hydropower: evidence from Northeast Thailand, Steiner et al., Figshare Open Access 10.6084/m9.figshare.32609872.v1

Dynamic and probabilistic material flow analysis for circular economy strategies in the photovoltaic sector, Jorio et al., Environment Development and Sustainability Open Access pdf 10.1007/s10668-026-07730-6

From climate goals to energy security: Mapping Europe's biomethane implementation gap, with Greece as a case in point, Giannakis et al., Energy Research & Social Science Open Access 10.1016/j.erss.2026.104799

UK Government support for nuclear power compared with that of tidal lagoons, Allsopp, Energy Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.enpol.2026.115400

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Skillful seasonal prediction of wind energy resources in the contiguous United States, Communications Earth & Environment, 10.1038/s43247-024-01457-w 18 cites.

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Geoengineering climate

Sulfur Exposure for Airplane Passengers From Stratospheric Aerosol Injection, Robock et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1029/2026gl122804

The deployment length of solar radiation modification: an interplay of mitigation, net-negative emissions and climate uncertainty, Baur et al., Earth System Dynamics Open Access pdf 10.5194/esd-14-367-2023

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Investigating the effect of silicate- and calcium-based ocean alkalinity enhancement on diatom silicification, Biogeosciences, 10.5194/bg-21-2777-2024 32 cites.

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Black carbon

China's Contribution to Arctic Black Carbon Declined From 2009 to 2022, Deng et al., Earth s Future Open Access 10.1029/2025ef007441

Aerosols

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Aerosol?Cloud Interactions From Aviation Soot Emissions, Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres, 10.1029/2023jd040277 4 cites.

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Climate change communications & cognition

Comparing households’ perception of flood hazard with historical climate and hydrological data in the Lower Mono River catchment (West Africa), Benin and Togo, Dossoumou et al., PLOS Climate Open Access pdf 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000123

Coping with the climate crisis: Text-derived coping profiles reveal a tension between burden, engagement, and mental well-being in four countries, Zauner et al., Journal of Environmental Psychology 10.1016/j.jenvp.2026.103102

Do low-income groups respond more positively to “climate justice” than to other terms from the public discourse about climate change and sustainability? Evidence from a survey-based wording experiment with a representative Los Angeles County sample, Blyler et al., PLOS Climate Open Access 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000905

Environmental and climate news in the eyes of parents as audiences: disconnection, uncertainty and anxiety in evaluating news about environmental change, Roberts et al., Environmental Sociology 10.1080/23251042.2026.2684455

Hello world! An interdisciplinary climate modelling course, Proske & Staab, Geoscience Communication Open Access pdf 10.5194/gc-9-239-2026

The impact of green space perception, trust in scientists and climate anxiety in predicting the perception of air pollution health effects, Monge et al., PLOS Climate Open Access 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000683

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
From Denial to the Culture Wars: A Study of Climate Misinformation on YouTube, Environmental Communication, 10.1080/17524032.2024.2363861 31 cites.

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Agronomy, animal husbundry, food production & climate change

Beyond temperature: Why climate adaptation in agriculture needs a systems approach, Basso, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Open Access 10.1073/pnas.2614201123

Climate Change, Animal Agriculture, and Ethics, Donoso & Mittiga, Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews Climate Change Open Access 10.1002/wcc.70047

Editorial: Regenerative agriculture for soil health, greenhouse gas mitigation, and climate action, Lenka et al., Frontiers in Environmental Science Open Access pdf 10.3389/fenvs.2026.1872013

Impact of climate change on plantation crops with special reference to tea (Camellia sinensis (L.) O. Kuntze) in India, Babu et al., Frontiers in Climate Open Access pdf 10.3389/fclim.2026.1829924

Impacts of climate change on the phenology and distribution range of Castanea sativa (Mill.) varieties in the Cévennes mountainous region, Southern France, Ponsa et al., Regional Environmental Change Open Access pdf 10.1007/s10113-026-02605-y

Investigating Methane Emissions From Cattle Facilities in Northeastern Colorado, Steinmann et al., Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres 10.1029/2025jd046146

Low hanging fruit: climate change and tobacco endgame measures, Bostic et al., Frontiers in Environmental Science Open Access pdf 10.3389/fenvs.2026.1606133

Multidimensional assessment of farmers’ climate resilience in the lower Gangetic Region of India, Biswas et al., Discover Sustainability Open Access 10.1007/s43621-026-03679-8

Pollinator Dependency and Regional Climate Affect Crop Yield Development Under Climate Change, Prucker et al., Ecology and Evolution Open Access 10.1002/ece3.73751

Regenerative agriculture for soil health, greenhouse gas mitigation, and climate action, Lenka et al., Frontiers in Environmental Science Open Access pdf 10.3389/fenvs.2026.1872013

Shifting hail hazard under global warming and effects on crop hail risk, Raupach et al., Nature Climate Change Open Access 10.1038/s41558-026-02660-7

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Deforestation and climate risk hotspots in the global cocoa value chain, Environmental Science & Policy, 10.1016/j.envsci.2024.103796 17 cites.

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Hydrology, hydrometeorology & climate change

Climatology and Trends of Sub-Daily Precipitation Extremes in Croatia, Star?evi? et al., International Journal of Climatology Open Access 10.1002/joc.70463

Flood Hazard in Aotearoa New Zealand Under Current and Future Climates, Harang et al., Geoscience Data Journal Open Access 10.1002/gdj3.70083

Hydrological transition from natural locking to artificial locking in the Indus River Basin (IRB) under warming climate, Jeelani et al., Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability 10.1016/j.cosust.2026.101666

The Fate of Western Headwaters: Climate Controls on Base-Flow Decline, Mroczek et al., Earth s Future Open Access 10.1029/2025ef007971

The Growing Threat of Flooding on Transportation Infrastructure Across Texas Through 2100, Ahasan et al., Earth s Future Open Access 10.1029/2026ef008207

The Shrinking Caspian Sea: Eco-Hydrological Responses to Human and Climate Pressures, Duku et al., Earth s Future Open Access 10.1029/2025ef008028

Trends in Subdaily to Daily Rainfall in Florida, 1990–2022, Haider et al., Journal of Hydrometeorology 10.1175/jhm-d-25-0112.1

Warming Drives Streamflow Reductions and Intensifies Hydrologic Whiplash, Threatening California's Water Supply, Graves et al., Earth s Future Open Access 10.1029/2025ef006985

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Anthropogenic Intensification of Cool?Season Precipitation Is Not Yet Detectable Across the Western United States, Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres, 10.1029/2023jd040537 12 cites.

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Climate change economics

Early signs that the EU carbon border adjustment mechanism is reshaping EU–India steel trade, Vriz et al., Nature Climate Change Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41558-026-02607-y

Operationalizing publicly managed decline: Public asset acquisition in the Powder River Basin, Wyoming, Mijin & Grubert, Energy Research & Social Science 10.1016/j.erss.2026.104772

Operationalizing the loss and damage fund: a case for equity and justice in India's climate response, Lama et al., Climate and Development 10.1080/17565529.2026.2674796

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Greening to shield: The impacts of extreme rainfall on economic activity in Latin American cities, Global Environmental Change, 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2024.102857 5 cites.

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Climate change mitigation public policy research

Forecasting Ireland's retrofit trajectory: Overcoming policy gaps to meet climate action goals, Essien-Thompson et al., Energy Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.enpol.2026.115135

Fossil lock-in, resource dependence, and energy transition policy in the Global South, Bigerna et al., Energy Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.enpol.2026.115281

Leveraging agency for climate change mitigation, Kukowski et al., Nature Climate Change 10.1038/s41558-026-02644-7

Rethinking energy transition strategies for the European Union amid rising energy prices, Meng et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Open Access 10.1073/pnas.2609606123

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
The transition towards solar energy storage: a multi-level perspective, Energy Policy, 10.1016/j.enpol.2024.114209 27 cites.

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Climate change adaptation & adaptation public policy research

African cities apply new planning tool to guide urban NbS action for climate resilience: insights from Addis Ababa and Kigali, Beyer et al., Environmental Research Infrastructure and Sustainability Open Access 10.1088/2634-4505/ae6acd

Brief communication: Sea-level projections, adaptation planning, and actionable science, Lipscomb et al., cryosphere Open Access pdf 10.5194/tc-19-793-2025

Building resilient Arctic futures through Indigenous Knowledge and self-determination, Vural & Hall, PLOS Climate Open Access 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000943

Climate change at the margins of the megacity: informal settlements’ adaptation infrastructures, Castro, Climate and Development Open Access 10.1080/17565529.2026.2679005

Exploring the Role of Strategic Place-Based Risk Assessment as a Framework to Support System-Based Climate Adaptation Planning, Jenkins et al., Earth s Future Open Access 10.1029/2025ef007417

Informing adaptation strategy through mapping the dynamics linking climate change, health, and other human systems: Case studies from Georgia, Lebanon, Mozambique and Costa Rica, Loffreda et al., PLOS Climate Open Access pdf 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000184

Norms and climate change adaptation behaviour: a systematic literature review using TCCM framework and future research agenda, Vinchurkar & Gaurav, Climate and Development 10.1080/17565529.2026.2674797

Relevant climatic impact-drivers for port functionality in a changing climate – an evaluation based on German seaports, Lankenau et al., Climate Risk Management Open Access 10.1016/j.crm.2026.100832

Translating community perceptions and concerns into planning: climate change adaptation in Hooper Bay, Alaska, Molina et al., Regional Environmental Change 10.1007/s10113-026-02612-z

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Navigating tensions in climate change-related planned relocation, AMBIO, 10.1007/s13280-024-02035-2 20 cites.

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Climate change impacts on human health

Climate change, inequality, and childhood stunting in African countries, Pradhan et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Open Access 10.1073/pnas.2518179123

Emergence of Uncompensable Heat Stress During Monsoon Season in India, Chuphal et al., AGU Advances Open Access 10.1029/2025av001945

Emergency Department Presentations During Dry and Humid Heatwaves: A Case-Crossover Study in the Northern Territory, Australia, Boyd et al., GeoHealth Open Access pdf 10.1029/2025gh001562

Evaluating the potential for heat warning systems to account for intra-urban variability, Ludwig et al., PLOS Climate Open Access 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000941

Global, regional, and national trends in disease burden attributable to high temperature exposure in adults aged 65 years and older from 1990 to 2021, Zhu et al., Frontiers in Climate Open Access pdf 10.3389/fclim.2026.1811293

Governing climate change adaptation in urban Tanzania: health system capacity gaps and implications for resilience, Mushi et al., Frontiers in Climate Open Access 10.3389/fclim.2026.1801864

Heat, Humidity, and Adverse Birth Outcomes: Quantification of Projected Risks in the Contiguous United States, Sheahan et al., GeoHealth Open Access 10.1029/2025gh001643

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Climate changes and food-borne pathogens: the impact on human health and mitigation strategy, Climatic Change, 10.1007/s10584-024-03748-9 74 cites.

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Climate change & geopolitics

Analysing policy signals from the US, EU and UN regulations for the deployment of marine carbon dioxide removal, Seralta et al., Climate Policy 10.1080/14693062.2026.2678303

 

Other

Cloud-Radiative Feedback Intensified Yunnan's Record-Breaking 2023 Spring Drought-Heatwave, Zhou et al., Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres 10.1029/2025jd046196

Peatland fire ecology and management in Malaysia: hydrological controls, empirical insights and pathways to climate resilience, Nawang et al., Fire Ecology Open Access 10.1186/s42408-026-00505-4

Informed opinion, nudges & major initiatives

Opinion: The Scientific and Community-Building Roles of the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP) - Past, Present, and Future, Visioni et al., Atmospheric chemistry and physics Open Access pdf 10.5194/acp-23-5149-2023

White House defangs NSF watchdog unit, Mervis, Science 10.1126/science.aej3864

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
The climate benefits from cement carbonation are being overestimated, Nature Communications, 10.1038/s41467-024-48965-z 77 cites.

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Articles/Reports from Agencies and Non-Governmental Organizations Addressing Aspects of Climate Change

The Demand Stack: An Assessment of the Benefits, Hledik et al., Uplight

The authors analyzed the potential for Demand Stack implementation to unlock new demand response (DR), time-of-use (TOU) rate, and energy efficiency (EE) capabilities for a representative SPP utility’s service territory. The “Demand Stack” represents a set of strategic initiatives to expand the impact and effectiveness of each individual utility’s demand-side management (DSM) portfolio through a more integrated approach to program design and implementation. Operationally, the Demand Stack allows a portfolio of demand-side programs to be collectively deployed and dispatched to reliably address system needs, similar to conventional supply-side resources. The range of Demand Stack strategies includes regulatory, operational, and behavioral measures that can enable new program offerings, increase enrollment, and improve the performance and cost-competitiveness of the portfolio. The authors focus exclusively on the quantifiable impacts that Demand Stack strategies could have by 2030 for a representative portfolio of demand-side offerings.

Americans Oppose AI Data Centers in Their Area, Jeffrey Jones, Gallup

Seven in 10 Americans oppose constructing data centers for artificial intelligence in their local area, including nearly half, 48%, who are strongly opposed. Barely a quarter favor these projects, with 7% strongly in favor. These results, from a March 2-18 Gallup survey, represent the first time Gallup has asked about data center construction, a topic that has met fierce opposition from local residents in many parts of the country. The March survey asked people to rate their level of concern about the environmental impact of AI data centers. Forty-six percent say they worry a great deal and 24% a fair amount, largely mirroring the degrees of opposition to data center construction. Half of opponents mention data centers’ excessive use of resources, including 18% each mentioning their use of water and energy. Sixteen percent mention a related environmental concern of pollution, including noise pollution and air and water pollution.

The Environmental Cost of Artificial Intelligence: Carbon, Water, and Land Footprints, Aczel et al., United Nations University

The authors examine one of the most underexplored consequences of AI’s rapid expansion: the environmental footprints of the energy required to power it. As artificial intelligence becomes embedded in economies, public services, research, communication, and everyday life, it depends on a growing physical infrastructure of data centers, advanced chips, cooling systems, electricity grids, water resources, land, and critical mineral supply chains. The report shows that AI is not only a digital technology, but also a material system with measurable environmental costs. The authors frame AI’s environmental footprint as a governance and justice challenge, not only a technical problem. The benefits of AI often flow across borders and sectors, while the environmental burdens of data center siting, electricity demand, water withdrawals, land use, mineral extraction, and e-waste can be concentrated in specific communities and regions. To address these risks, the authors call for a responsible AI ecosystem grounded in transparency, efficiency by design, equity and environmental justice, lifecycle responsibility, global cooperation, and sustainable use. By making AI’s carbon, water, and land footprints visible and comparable, the authors provide a practical basis for integrating AI into energy, climate, water, and land-use planning, ensuring that innovation advances without shifting environmental costs onto vulnerable communities.

Advancing Industrial Electrification in Pennsylvania, Quinn et al., The 2035 Initiative, University of California, Santa Barbara

Pennsylvania has one of the largest and most energy-intensive manufacturing sectors in the country, making it a major source of greenhouse gas emissions and local air pollution. This also makes it one of the best near-term opportunities to deploy cleaner, more efficient manufacturing technologies. The Reducing Industrial Sector Emissions in Pennsylvania (RISE PA) program has allocated $396 million to industrial decarbonization, making the Commonwealth an early leader in this area. The authors explore one way the state can effectively deploy its resources: low- and medium-temperature (LMT) process heat electrification. Building on national-scale engineering models, the authors identify how electrification of Pennsylvania’s industrial sector can deliver cost-effective emissions reductions, long-term health benefits for Pennsylvanians, and economic growth in the manufacturing sector.

Global Justice Report, Aggarwal et al., World Inequality Lab

The authors attempt to set out a new vision for global progress in the 21st century: grounding human development and equality in planetary habitability. They explore the conditions under which the world could move toward this horizon and traces an economically and ecologically consistent transition path from 2026 to 2100. Their main conclusion is simple: it is possible to reconcile planetary habitability and high well-being for all, but only if the transformation rests on three pillars simultaneously. Fast decarbonization of energy systems is necessary. But we also need a major shift toward sufficiency – understood as a sharp reduction in labor hours and material footprint and large changes in consumption patterns, food habits, land use, and forest cover. In addition, neither decarbonization nor sufficiency can be financed and politically sustained without a drastic reduction in inequality of income, wealth and power, both between countries and within them. The compression of global inequality is not only compatible with deep decarbonization; it is a necessary condition for shared prosperity on a finite planet.

Temperature Check 2025–26, The Center for Climate Journalism and Communication, University of Southern California

Even though fewer Americans now hear about global warming and climate change through news, newspapers are still the top source of information for climate communicators. Climate communicators still prefer LinkedIn as their go-to social media platform for climate information, followed by Instagram and BlueSky. The use of X/Twitter for engaging in climate media continues to drop even more among climate communicators. Climate communicators are most concerned about the lack of climate action, global warming and the health impacts of climate change this year. Yet, the authors' survey shows climate communicators are also increasingly avoiding terms and phrases such as “climate change” and “global warming,” likely due to increasing politicization of the terms as well as pushback from the government as well as the public.

The New Geopolitics of LNG: Asia’s Energy Security in a Divided World, Andrews-Speed et al., The National Bureau of Asian Research

Liquefied natural gas constitutes a growing share of the global energy mix and is an increasingly important element of the energy mix in Asia. The authors examine the role of liquefied natural gas in the energy strategies of the United States, Japan, and China and assess the implications of deepening geopolitical divides for Asia’s future energy security.

Drivers of supply and demand of terrestrial animal source food, Tak et al., Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations

Diverse foods derived from livestock production systems, including grazing and pastoralist systems, and from the hunting of wild animals, provide high-quality proteins, important fatty acids and various vitamins and minerals – contributing to healthy diets for improved nutrition and health. Challenges related to high resource utilization and pollution, food–feed competition, greenhouse gas emissions, antimicrobial resistance and animal welfare, as well as zoonotic and food-borne diseases, accessibility and affordability, need to be solved if agrifood systems are to become more sustainable.

Clean industry rising: the foundation of resilient value chains, Mission Possible Partnership

The authors highlight the acceleration in the shift to decarbonized industrial production. The latest wave of projects includes clean fuels, chemicals, fertilizers and metals: the industrial essentials needed to grow food, build infrastructure, manufacture goods and move the products that underpin modern economies. As the need for more resilient industrial systems intensifies, clean industry is emerging as a strategic advantage. The authors explore the trends in detail, including country progress, analysis of which projects are progressing along the announced pipeline and the new clean industry value chains that are taking shape worth an estimated $4.7 trillion.

China Carbon Neutrality Tracker 2025 Annual Report Green and Low-Carbon Transition in China's Provincial Level Regions: A Decade in Review, Li et al., Institute for Global Decarbonization Progress

As China's "dual carbon" targets have been enshrined as national strategy and the "1+N" policy framework continues to take shape, the country's green and low-carbon transition has moved into a phase of accelerated implementation at the subnational level. Given China's vast territory and the significant differences among provincial level regions1 in economy, energy mix, and resource endowments, the transition varies notably across regions in terms of starting points, pathways, and outcomes. Therefore, systematically tracking subnational climate action carries significant potential to inform policymaking and ensure the timely achievement of China's "dual carbon" goals. The authors apply Subnational Low-Carbon and Green Index for China (Subnational LOGIC), an indicator tool developed by iGDP, to track and quantitatively assess the low-carbon transition of 30 provincial level regions between 2013 and 2022. Subnational LOGIC encompasses 26 specific indicators under four categories: carbon productivity; carbon emissions including six sub-categories covering energy, power, industry, buildings, transport, and agriculture; environmental conditions and land use; and policy systems and public participation, together capturing the overall quality of regional economic growth and progress on sectoral emission reductions.

Gas share in global power mix has declined for a fifth consecutive year, Malgorzata Wiatros-Motyka, Ember

The author examines how the role of gas in the global power sector is changing as renewable electricity expands across major economies. She explores long-term trends in gas-fired generation globally and across key markets, including the G7, China, India and Brazil.

Climate Change in the American Mind: Politics & Policy, Spring 2026, Leiserowitz et al., Yale University and George Mason University

With the primaries in the 2026 midterm elections underway, the authors found that 58% of registered voters prefer to vote for a candidate for public office who supports action on global warming, while 14% prefer to vote for a candidate who opposes action. 42% would like to hear from political candidates more often about efforts to reduce global warming, while 23% would like to hear about this less often. 31% will only vote for a congressional candidate who supports increasing the use of renewable energy, while 7% will only vote for a candidate who supports decreasing the use of renewable energy. 25% will only vote for a candidate who supports decreasing the use of fossil fuels, while 14% will only vote for a candidate who supports increasing the use of fossil fuels.

The Intersection of Data Center Development, Water Availability, and Environmental Justice In California, Stewart-Frey et al., NEXT 10

The authors assess the intersection of direct water use by data centers with water availability and distribution in California, focusing on the potential effect of large-scale data center operations on local water resources. The authors also evaluate how data centers might affect the water access and sustainability for communities located near these facilities, highlighting potential disparities in water access for particularly vulnerable communities. As part of this assessment, the authors developed a comprehensive database of California data centers, as well as a newly developed index to evaluate water scarcity and community vulnerability.

Banking on Climate Crisis. Fossil Fuel Finance Report 2026, Lusiani et al., Banking on Climate Chaos Coalition

Affordable energy, environmental justice, respect for human rights, and a livable climate are all critical pillars of society, and all profoundly influenced by choices made by the world’s largest banks. Many of these banks continue to put their — and others — money into the fragile fossil fuel energy system, which has become a source of great wealth for the few and a deepening fault line of vulnerability for everyone else. At a time of great change in the global energy sector, this 17th edition of the Banking on Climate Chaos report tracks these financing choices by the world’s largest banks and provides a roadmap of how to phase out bank financing for fossil fuels.

SLCP Impact Report: A decade of driving decent working conditions, The Social and Labor Convergence Program

In 2025, SLCP added new climate data points to the Converged Assessment Framework (CAF) ensuring alignment with Human Rights Due Diligence requirements and recognizing that climate change is no longer solely an environmental sustainability issue, but that it directly affects worker wellbeing too. The authors who that 69% of facilities are not preparing for climate effects and have not yet made a formal plan for dealing with climate change. This is particularly urgent given that 16% of SLCP facilities maintain indoor temperatures exceeding 31°C, a level that sits dangerously close to or above recognized safe heat thresholds for workers. About New Research

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Welcome to Carbon Brief’s China Briefing.

China Briefing handpicks and explains the most important climate and energy stories from China over the past fortnight. Subscribe for free here.

Key developments Trade tensions intensify

AUTHORITY TO RETALIATE: China has issued “sweeping” new rules that increase “controls over the overseas transfer of domestic technology”, while also giving the government “explicit” authority to retaliate against governments that restrict Chinese investments, reported finance news outlet Caixin. The rules are a “shield for Chinese enterprises”, argued an editorial in the state-run newspaper China Daily, as well as a way to “protect” China’s “development interests”. Cosimo Ries, an analyst at Trivium China, told Carbon Brief that protecting China’s lead in cleantech manufacturing is one of the aims of the regulations. He said that language around restrictive foreign actions is, in his view, “clearly designed as a response” to the EU’s Industrial Accelerator Act. Ries added that the government is “increasingly working to prevent Chinese IP from being forcefully appropriated or handed away by its own companies seeking market access abroad”.

COMMISSIONERS MEET: The rules come as the EU debates plans to “broaden the use of its trade defences” to protect industries from what the EU industry commissioner described to the Financial Times as “unfair” Chinese competition. A meeting of EU commissioners reaffirmed the need for a “more robust and coherent” response to trade and investment from China, which is seen as “not sustainable”, according to a readout from the European Commission. In response, China said it will “resolutely” retaliate to any “discriminatory” EU trade measures, reported Bloomberg. Meanwhile, Chinese automaker SAIC has confirmed plans to invest €200m ($232m) to build a factory in Spain for vehicles including electric vehicles, said Caixin. Trade envoys from the EU and China backed further discussions after a meeting in early June, reported Reuters.

SURPLUS ‘WIDENED’: According to Chinese customs data covered by Bloomberg, China’s trade surplus with the EU “widened slightly” in May, though its exports to the bloc “slowed”. The outlet added ongoing EU-China trade tensions “could pose a risk to Beijing’s favoured ‘new three’ energy industries”, for which the EU was the “destination for about 40% of exports” in 2025. While country-specific data is not yet available, China’s global exports of “green products”, such as batteries and wind turbines, grew by around 40% in January-May, according to state news agency Xinhua.

Early heat tests China’s grid

PATTERNS BROKEN: China Southern Power Grid, which covers a number of provinces across southern China, reported that it saw a record electricity load of 259 gigawatts (GW) in late May, according to Shanghai-based outlet the Paper. It added that the new record – driven by “widespread cooling demand” due to high temperatures – came “nearly a month earlier” than usual, “breaking a seasonal pattern” where peaks occurred in June and July. High temperatures continued in early June across both northern and southern China, reported China Daily, with some regions reporting temperatures of almost 40C.

HEAVY RAINS: China also continued to see heavy rains across “multiple provinces in southern China”, reported China Daily, with “nearly 10,000 residents” evacuated in Guizhou after torrential rains caused flooding in the area. Flood-response measures have been activated in Hunan and Guangxi, said Bloomberg. The Communist party-affiliated People’s Daily said that floods were also expected in Yunnan, Guangdong and Fujian provinces. Meanwhile, northern China’s Hebei province experienced “dramatic” weather, including “thunderstorms, strong winds, hail and heavy downpours”, said Jing-Jin-Ji News Channel. 

CROP RISK: “Against the backdrop of intensifying global warming, northern China is seeing a clear trend of more frequent and severe extreme weather,” said the People’s Daily. Meteorologists attributed the unusually early and intense rain to shifting weather patterns that “reflects broader weather changes in China associated with global warming”, said Bloomberg. An article in the People’s Daily noted that extreme and unusual weather, driven by “climate change”, has “posed varying degrees of risks and challenges to agricultural production”. Another Bloomberg article said expected further rains in southern China could “inundat[e] crops and damag[e] rice fields”.

Mineral trade controls and concerns

EXPORTS BLOCKED: Elsewhere, the Chinese government has “penalised at least 11 companies this year for illegally exporting restricted rare earths and critical minerals”, reported Caixin. It said this included a subsidiary of solar manufacturer JA (formerly JA Solar) for “shipping unlicensed graphite parts to Vietnam”. The Hong Kong-based South China Morning Post reported that China’s rare-earth exports fell by 6.4% in May as “Beijing maintained tight control over shipments”. A new report on rare earths by the Center for Strategic and International Studies stated that “although China’s exports of rare earths and rare-earth magnets have resumed”, flows have been “highly volatile” and licensing has been “uneven”. This was echoed in a report by the Royal United Services Institute that said “China incentivises the export of final products containing rare earths…rather than rare earths themselves”, which could pose “risks” to electric vehicle (EV) and offshore wind supply chains.

EXPORTS CONTROLLED: Zimbabwe has announced that a Chinese company will establish a lithium-carbonate plant in the country, said Bloomberg. It said this followed a ban on lithium exports as the country aimed to “build up local processing capacity for the battery metal”. Meanwhile, Reuters reported that Chinese investors in Indonesia’s coal-dependent nickel industry are looking to other countries. It said this followed plans by the Indonesian government to plan nickel export controls, tighter quotas and tax hikes.

More China news

• ‘GEC’ GUIDANCE: A new set of trial guidelines has been issued to “unify” how clean-electricity consumption is measured, said state broadcaster CCTV. Ying (Jenny) Zheng, a researcher at the Tsinghua TianGong Thinktank, told Carbon Brief that the measures are more than just accounting guidelines. She said they provide a “foundation for one of the key control indicators within China’s emerging carbon-control framework” that should help boost consumption of low-carbon power.
• TOWNS AND TRACTORS: China called for “vigorous efforts” to develop low-carbon buildings in a new 15th five-year plan for “urban renewal”, said BJX News. A five-year plan for agriculture also listed “accelerating” the “green transformation” of agriculture as one of seven key tasks, said Xinhua.
• FUNDRAISING FIGURES: China raised 6bn yuan ($885m) in green sovereign bonds, reported Bloomberg. It said these have previously been used for emissions reductions and “biodiversity preservation”.
• SALES SLUMP: Sales of electric vehicles (EVs) and plug-in hybrids in China fell 7.5% year-on-year in May, reported Reuters. It said they nevertheless made up 62% of all sales, with the Associated Press noting that petrol-car sales fell 42%.
• UK DIALOGUE: UK foreign secretary Yvette Cooper told her Chinese counterpart Wang Yi that the UK is willing to “deepen cooperation” with China on energy and climate change, according to a readout by China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs.
• MEASURING SUBSIDIES: The Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) released a report saying Chinese companies received “three to eight times more government support than firms based in the OECD”, said Agence France Presse. China’s commerce ministry responded saying the report was “one-sided and arbitrary”, according to Xinhua.

Captured

China’s emissions in January-March 2026 rose 2% year-on-year, driven by growing “curtailment” of wind and solar in the power sector due to “inflexible grid management”, said new analysis for Carbon Brief.

Spotlight  What do China’s provincial five-year plans reveal about its energy transition?

China’s provincial-level governments have now all published their 15th five-year plans – economic and social development blueprints for 2026-2030. 

In this issue, Carbon Brief analyses what all 31 documents say about energy and climate.

Provinces remain focused on clean energy

At the broad level, the new provincial plans follow China’s overarching climate goals. All 31 provincial-level jurisdictions in mainland China pledged to peak carbon emissions before 2030. 

Every plan also mentioned the core elements of China’s energy transition strategy, including solar, wind, hydrogen, energy storage and upgrading the power grid.  

While solar featured in every plan, specific interests in the technology vary from province to province. 

Some set goals to add new solar capacity by 2030. Zhejiang province aims to add 90GW of solar capacity, while Shaanxi plans to “accelerate” construction of wind and solar “bases”. Several others mentioned developing offshore solar farms in the next five years.

However, others instead focused on recycling old solar panels or strengthening solar R&D. 

Almost every plan mentioned growing consumption and production of new-energy vehicles (NEVs). 

Around 15 provinces mentioned promoting NEV uptake. Jilin set a target for NEVs comprising more than 50% of new car sales by 2030, although its current rate is already thought to be 47%. 

While the central government is issuing directives to limit “overcapacity” in the sector, more than 20 provinces said they will continue developing their NEV industries, with many aiming to generate hundreds of billions – or even trillions – of yuan in value.

Meanwhile, 24 provinces will prioritise developing renewable power “direct connection” models, in which renewable generators supply industrial users via a dedicated line – a system that could boost consumption of clean energy.

Number of provinces that mention key climate and energy terms in their 15th five-year plans. Source: Carbon Brief analysis of provincial 15th five-year plans.

Provinces diverge in terms of what other technologies they name and how detailed their plans are. 

For example, offshore wind and nuclear are mentioned by 11 and 12 provinces respectively, with both technologies mostly targeted to be built in coastal provinces. 

But in general, variation reflects more than just geography or resources endowment, said Anders Hove, a senior research fellow at the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies.

“The differences between provinces reflect primarily differences in economic development capabilities and industrial structure,” he told Carbon Brief. 

Half of provinces to expand fossil-fuel production

Almost every province pledged to peak coal and oil consumption, in line with similar language in the national-level plan. 

However, 17 local governments also pledged to produce more fossil fuels – trying to peak consumption while also expanding output, opening new reserves or lifting production limits. 

Most of these are regions designated as national energy-supply bases, including Inner Mongolia, Xinjiang, Shaanxi, Gansu and Heilongjiang. 

Yang Li, deputy executive director at the Beijing-based thinktank Institute for Global Decarbonization Progress (iGDP), toldCarbon Brief this pattern reflects the “two dimensions of China’s [energy] transition”. These are a national-level push for peaking fossil-fuel consumption and a desire for energy security by provinces rich in energy resources. 

Provinces with significant fossil-fuel economies are also the most likely to mention carbon capture, utilisation and storage (CCUS), which appears in 14 plans. 

Provinces jostle to take the lead on AI and hydrogen 

With the national government preparing to spend trillions of yuan on datacentres for the artificial intelligence (AI) industry in the next five years, provincial officials are also tying AI to their energy systems. 

More than 20 aim to use AI to help manage coal mines, power grids, oilfields and forecasting renewables output. 

Yang said that “AI+energy” represents a desire by policymakers to use AI to enhance energy governance, but adds that “large-scale commercialisation [of the technology] still has some way to go”.

Unlike AI, all provincial plans mention hydrogen, which is named as a “future industry” in the central-level five-year plan. 

For example, Hunan calls for promoting hydrogen trucks and rail transport and developing “renewable energy-based” hydrogen production, while Shandong pledges to focus on technological breakthroughs around hydrogen transport and storage, as well as production of green hydrogen. 

Similarly, 12 provinces named the other energy-related future industry – nuclear fusion, which remains an experimental technology – as a priority for the next five years. These provinces include Anhui, Guangdong, Hebei, Hubei and Shaanxi.

This spotlight is by freelance China analyst Lekai Liu for Carbon Brief.

Watch, read, listen

FUTURE-FOCUSED: Qiushi, China’s official journal for political theory, published an edition based on “future industries”, in which President Xi Jinping called for advancing hydrogen energy and nuclear fusion.

MIGHTY MANGROVES: The Grantham Research Institute explored China’s uptake of “blue carbon credits”, which could help preserve “powerful carbon sinks” in coastal ecosystems. 

IN THE LEAD: Mission Possible Partnership published a report saying China is “widening its lead” in developing a low-carbon industrial sector.

‘AUTOBESITY’: Blue Map examined “autobesity”, the trend towards larger Chinese EVs, and what this could mean for their carbon footprint

13

The number of Chinese solar companies that have joined forces to create the Space Energy Development Alliance, a new organisation to promote space solar energy, said Bloomberg.

5

Minutes devoted to the opening ceremony, which did not offer “any details” on the alliance’s objectives, according to the outlet.

New science 

• National and provincial planning scenarios for China’s solar and wind expansion until 2060 will present different trade-offs with biodiversity | Nature Ecology and Evolution
• Policies to decrease carbon emissions and declines in technology costs could together help achieve “deep” carbon emissions reductions by 2060 in China’s steel industry | PNAS

Recently published on WeChat

• 分析：因部分风光电力被弃，中国2026年初碳排放增加2%
• Q&A：中国能否将氢能发展为可行的清洁能源产业？

China Briefing is written by Anika Patel, with contributions from Lekai Liu, and edited by Simon Evans. Please send tips and feedback to china@carbonbrief.org 

China Briefing 28 May 2026: Deadly rains | China pushes back | Examining China’s carbon intensity metric 

China Briefing

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28.05.26

China Briefing 30 April 2026: Fossil fuel ‘strict controls’ | El Niño approaches | Why cleantech exports have surged

China Briefing

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30.04.26

China Briefing 16 April 2026: Billions for grid | Petrochemical plan | China’s high-seas bid

China Briefing

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16.04.26

China Briefing 2 April 2026: EV profits rise | Ming Yang rejected | Iran war

China Briefing

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02.04.26

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The post China Briefing 11 June 2026: Tech clampdown | Extreme weather | Provinces’ energy plans appeared first on Carbon Brief.

The planet is heating up more quickly than ever before.

For decades, greenhouse gas emissions caused by human activity have been building up in the atmosphere and trapping ever-higher levels of heat.

The resulting asymmetry between incoming solar energy and energy radiated back out into space – known as “Earth’s energy imbalance” – provides a direct measure of the extent to which humans are disrupting the Earth’s climate system. 

This imbalance is growing and in 2025 its 10-year average reached a record high, indicating that global temperatures could increase at even higher rates in the future.

This is among the headline findings of the latest “indicators of global climate change” (IGCC) report, published in the journal Earth System Science Data, which tracks changes in the climate system on an annual basis.

The report, now in its fourth iteration, has been produced by dozens of scientists from around the world.

Its findings are designed to fill the gap between Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) science reports, which are published every 5-7 years. 

In this article, we unpack the IGCC report, which explores how human activity is driving a growing energy imbalance and why monitoring systems to track global climate are so crucial.

(For more on previous IGCC reports, see Carbon Brief’s coverage in 2023, 2024 and 2025.)

Greenhouse gas emissions remain at an all-time high

Global greenhouse gas emissions are continuing to increase, mostly as a result of the use of fossil fuels. However, deforestation, agriculture and industrial processes also play an important role.

GlossaryCO2 equivalent: Greenhouse gases can be expressed in terms of carbon dioxide equivalent, or CO2e. For a given amount, different greenhouse gases trap different amounts of heat in the atmosphere, a quantity known as the global warming potential. Carbon dioxide equivalent is a way of comparing emissions from all greenhouse gases, not just carbon dioxide.CloseCO2 equivalent: Greenhouse gases can be expressed in terms of carbon dioxide equivalent, or CO2e. For a given amount, different greenhouse gases trap different amounts of heat in the atmosphere, a quantity known as… Read More

Over the most recent decade (2015-24), emissions stood at the equivalent of 54.6bn tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (GtCO2e) per year. In 2024, the most recent year for which we have complete data, emissions reached 56.8GtCO2e.

As the chart below shows, these emissions have pushed up atmospheric levels of CO2, methane and nitrous oxide. In 2025, concentrations of these gases reached 425.6 parts per million (ppm), 1936.3 parts per billion (ppb) and 339.4ppb, respectively. 

This represents a rise of 3.8%, 3.8% and 2.2%, respectively, since the 2019 levels reported in the IPCC’s sixth assessment report (AR6).

Atmospheric concentrations of CO2 (yellow), methane (blue) and nitrous oxide (green) over 2000-25. The grey-shaded region represents continuing changes since AR6. Note the different vertical scales for each gas. Credit: Forster et al. (2026)

At the same time, declines in emissions of aerosols such as sulphur dioxide, partly as a result of efforts to tackle air pollution, are increasing the Earth’s energy imbalance. This is because aerosols have a cooling effect on the Earth’s climate, counteracting warming from CO2 and other greenhouse gas emissions.

(Tackling sulphur dioxide, alongside other particulate emissions, remains critical because the immediate health and environmental damage they cause far outweighs their short-term cooling effect on the climate.)

The Earth’s energy imbalance is rising rapidly

The Earth’s energy imbalance has long been recognised as a key indicator of how the climate is being affected by human activities. 

However, it is only in the last few decades that scientists have been able to record temperature changes deep enough in the ocean to accurately quantify it.  

Earth’s energy imbalance measures how quickly excess heat is accumulating in every part of the Earth system, primarily in the ocean, but also in land, ice and atmosphere. 

Through this accumulation of heat, the energy imbalance influences the rate of sea level rise and ice melt across the world, as well as increasing the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events, such as storms, floods and droughts.

Without human influence, the Earth’s energy imbalance would be close to zero.

But, as greenhouse gas emissions have built up in the atmosphere, the imbalance has been growing since the 1970s. Recent increases to Earth’s energy imbalance have outpaced those projections made by climate models — indicating the planet could see more warming than expected in the future.

As the right-hand chart below shows, the imbalance is now at a record high, having more than doubled over the past two decades.  

It has increased by around 40% since 2019, from an average 0.79 watts per square metre (Wm2) over 2006-18, according to IPCC AR6, to 1.12Wm2 over 2013-25. 

The left-hand chart shows how heat is accumulating in the ocean (blues), ice (grey), land (orange) and atmosphere (purple).

Left: Observed changes in the Earth heat inventory for the period 1971-2020. Right: Estimates of the Earth energy imbalance for successive overlapping 20-year periods and the most recent decade (right). Shaded regions indicate the very likely range (90-100 % probability), while the stars show the CERES (NASA Clouds and the Earth’s Radiant Energy System) estimates for comparison. Credit: Forster et al. (2026)
Global temperature rise

The excess heat building up in the climate system from the energy imbalance is pushing up global temperatures at a record rate of 0.27C per decade. 

We estimate that human-induced warming – the amount of observed global surface temperature increase attributable to both the direct and indirect effects of human activities – reached 1.37C in 2025. This has risen from 1.0C in 2017, as reported in IPCC AR6.

While natural variability in the climate system – such as El Niño or La Niña events – can also influence temperatures year-to-year, the upward temperature trend we are seeing is being driven by the persistent imbalance in energy.

We now expect global temperatures to exceed the Paris Agreement limit of 1.5C above pre-industrial levels around the year 2030. 

This is significant because 1.5C has been identified as the critical dividing line between manageable climate risks and catastrophic, potentially irreversible damage to global ecosystems and human societies.

Heat accumulating throughout the Earth system

While heat is accumulating throughout the Earth system, it is not being distributed evenly around the globe. 

Since the 1970s, around 90% of this heat has been taken up by the ocean, affecting marine ecosystems, ocean circulation patterns, sea level rise and climate extremes.

For example, the number of marine heatwave days – periods of unusually high sea surface temperatures –  has more than tripled globally since the early 1990s. The year 2025 alone saw 65 days of marine heatwaves – meaning they occurred, on average, more than one day a week.

Meanwhile, the cryosphere – the portion of the Earth made up of frozen water, including glaciers, ice sheets and permafrost – is experiencing widespread ice loss and thawing in response to the growing energy imbalance. This affects ecosystems, sea level rise and infrastructure in polar and high-latitude regions.

Rapid warming has also resulted in record extreme temperatures over land, with average maximum temperatures for any single day over 2016-25 around 1.92C above pre-industrial levels). This is an increase of almost half a degree compared to the previous decade (2006-15).

Sea level rise and the energy imbalance

Sea level rise provides one of the clearest long-term signals of a changing planet.

It is closely linked to Earth’s energy imbalance. As heat accumulates in the ocean, water expands, raising sea levels. Meanwhile, a warming land and atmosphere means addition of water to the oceans through melting of glaciers and ice sheets, also adding to sea level rise.  

Over the long-term, sea levels have been rising, on average, at a rate of around 1.8mm per year since 1901, totalling a record 23cm in 2025. This is increasing the risk of coastal flooding, erosion and habitat loss in many low-lying areas around the world.

This rise can be seen in the left-hand chart below, which shows observed global sea level changes from tide gauges (grey and blue dashed lines) and satellites (red dashed lines) since 1901. The solid lines indicate the average across multiple datasets.

Sea level rise is accelerating consistent with the observed increase in Earth’s energy imbalance. Over 2006-25, sea levels have risen at a rate of 3.67mm per year – more than double the rate of 1.69mm per year seen over 1976-95.

This increasing rate is shown in the right-hand figure below, which shows four successive overlapping 20-year periods and the most-recent decade.

(Last year’s transition from El Niño to weak La Niña conditions affected global rainfall patterns and led to a small and temporary fall in global average sea level in 2025. This explains the slight decrease in rate of sea level rise for the most recent decade, which is affected more than the 20-year period 2006-25.)

Left: Global average sea level rise over 1901-2025, relative to a 1995-2014 baseline. Individual timeseries are shown with dashed lines, while the black solid line shows the average (from tide gauges and satellites) used in AR6 and the solid red line shows the 1993-2025 average from satellites. Right: Global mean sea-level rates (in mm per year) for four successive overlapping 20-year periods and the most-recent decade. The shading indicates the very likely range. Credit: Forster et al. (2026) The bigger picture

Despite greenhouse gas emissions not increasing as rapidly as in the 2000s, this year’s IGCC findings continue to show how far and how fast the climate is changing due to human activity.

A significant increase in decarbonisation efforts in the second half of this decade is required to slow down the rate of human-caused warming and limit the escalation of climate risks and impacts. 

These findings, like many others produced by scientists across the globe, rely on international expertise, partnership and the maintenance and availability of global climate datasets and the global observing programmes that underpin them. 

This year’s edition of IGCC used more than 40 global datasets produced by research teams around the world, including the NASA satellite record of the Earth’s energy imbalance and the ARGO deep ocean float network. 

However, a number of long-term monitoring programmes could be threatened by funding decisions made by governments around the world, most notably the Trump administration in the US.  

Local meteorological data and weather balloon measurement programmes in many countries have declined in recent years, especially in Africa, the west Pacific and South America. This reduces scientists’ ability to monitor and understand key indicators of climate change. 

This is not just an issue for climate science. Many of these observations are key to weather forecasts and systems that provide early warning for extreme weather. For example, media reports have suggested that recent reductions in weather balloon measurements in Alaska led to a lack of warnings for a recent winter storm.  

The continuity and integrity of the climate observations that scientists use to understand how the climate is changing depends on effective and sustained coordination by international organisations, such as the Global Climate Observing System, the World Meteorological Organization and World Climate Research Programme. 

Without this data and its coordination, future assessments will be much more difficult at a time when urgent climate action is needed.

Analysis: What are the causes of recent record-high global temperatures?

El Niño

|

10.12.25

Guest post: Why carbon emissions from fires are significantly higher than thought

GHGs and aerosols

|

01.12.25

UNEP: New country climate plans ‘barely move needle’ on expected warming

Emissions

|

04.11.25

Explainer: How human-caused aerosols are ‘masking’ global warming

GHGs and aerosols

|

10.06.25

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The post Guest post: How a record-high ‘energy imbalance’ is driving global warming appeared first on Carbon Brief.

The closure of Investors for Paris Compliance has prompted renewed debate about whether investor pressure on climate ever really mattered. 

Critics argue that shareholder resolutions rarely succeeded, that companies continue to produce oil and gas, and that governments and state policies ultimately matter more than investors. 

There is truth in some of those observations. But they also miss where investor influence is most visible. 

The strongest evidence is not found in annual general meetings. It is found in capital allocation. 

Geology dictates what is in the ground. Capital expenditure dictates what comes out. 

For decades, oil companies were rewarded for growth. Investors celebrated reserve additions, production increases and large-scale project development. The assumption was simple: future demand would be higher than today, so more reserves meant more value. Over the past decade that assumption has become far less certain. 

Investors began asking different questions. What if oil demand growth slows? What if electric vehicles scale faster than expected? What if renewable power becomes cheaper? What if some reserves prove less valuable than markets assume? 

Carbon Tracker’s work on stranded assets, our analysis of whether O&G production plans aligned with IEA net-zero scenarios, helped bring these questions into the mainstream of investor debate. Divestment campaigns and broader climate narratives reinforced them.  

As confidence in future demand weakened, investors became less willing to fund growth at any cost. Demand uncertainty, a wider climate context and declining confidence in long-dated projects helped shift investor priorities towards capital discipline, a theme we set out in Carbon Tracker’s landmark report Blueprint for an Energy Transition in 2015. As investors increasingly prioritised capital discipline over growth, behaviour across the sector started to change. 

Following the shale boom, oil companies were pushed to prioritise free cash flow, dividends and share buybacks over aggressive expansion. This shift is now visible across much of the listed oil industry: reserve replacement rates have fallen, exploration spending has declined, shareholder distributions have risen, and consolidation has accelerated. Many companies increasingly resemble mature cash-generating businesses rather than growth businesses. 

In 2023 Goldman Sachs noted that since 2014, “concerns around future demand and stranded assets had contributed to a sharp reduction in oil industry resource life, which it estimated had fallen from more than 50 years in 2014 to around 23 years.”  

Whether one agrees with every aspect of that analysis is almost secondary. Even critics of climate-focused investing increasingly acknowledge that investor expectations changed. 

The question is not whether investor pressure worked. If investor pressure had no influence, we might expect companies to continue pursuing reserve growth as aggressively as they did during the commodity supercycle.  

A more searching question is:  if projects became more economic, why were fewer sanctioned? And why did reserve life continue to fall?  

The answer lies at least partly in changing investor preferences and expectations, as well as better knowledge of the risks involved. 

At the same time, the debate itself has evolved. 

Ten years ago, much of the discussion revolved around scenarios, forecasts and long-term climate targets. Critics could dismiss these as hypothetical. 

Today the transition is increasingly observable. Decreasing oil company capital expenditure is measurable. Declining reserve replacement is measurable. Rapidly increasing buybacks and dividends are measurable. And on the other side of the ledger, surging electric vehicle sales are measurable. Global-scale industrial wind and solar deployment is measurable. Battery manufacturing is growing at exponential rates. 

The argument is becoming less about what might happen and more about what is already happening.

Investor pressure by itself will rarely determine the outcome. But it helped change what investors considered valuable. And when investors change what they value, companies eventually change how they behave. 

The balance sheets and capital allocation decisions of the oil industry suggest that the process is already under way. 

That does not mean the work is finished. As transition trends become more visible, debates increasingly focus on what those trends mean for competitiveness, industrial policy, security and investment decisions. The risk is not a lack of evidence, but a failure to respond to it. 

To hear more about the evidence, read our ‘Quiet Retreat’ and our interview on the topic with Christiana Figueres on Outrage & Optimism.

The post Does Investor Pressure Matter? Look at What Oil Companies Are Actually Doing appeared first on Carbon Tracker Initiative.

This is a re-post from The Climate Brink by Andrew Dessler

You have likely seen a headline like this: 62,000 people died from record-breaking heat in Europe:

link

It’s a striking number. It’s also not clear what it means. Is this the number of people killed by extreme heat? Or climate change’s contributions to the extreme heat? Or the number of deaths above what we would expect in a normal summer? Or something else.

This matters a lot. If we want to accurately communicate the impact of climate change on human mortality, we need to be precise about what we’re actually counting.

A graduate student and I just published a paper on this in GeoHealth (link), using heat-related mortality in Texas to demonstrate the issue. Here’s what we found.

the basic picture: a u-shaped curve

The relationship between daily average temperature and daily mortality is a U-shaped curve. The temperature at which the minimum number of deaths occur, often called the optimal temperature (abbreviated OT)1, is around 20°C (70°F) in most places. Mortality goes up as the temperature departs from the OT towards either hotter or colder temperatures.

This temperature-related mortality curve is calculated statistically by looking at how total (non-accidental) deaths vary with temperature. This produces curves like the one above.

By convention, the number of deaths occurring at the OT provides an estimate of the baseline (non-heat-related) deaths. At any other temperature, deaths above this baseline are assumed to be heat related.

For example, if there are 50 deaths on a day at the OT and 75 deaths at 10°C above the OT, we attribute the difference — 25 deaths — to heat.

Now that’s out of the way, let’s go over the different ways of quantifying heat-related mortality.

method 1: the optimal temperature method (OTM)

The most common approach in the scientific literature counts all deaths above the OT. In other words, for all days where the daily average temperature was above the OT, we calculate the heat-related deaths on those days and sum them. This gives us an estimate of the total number of heat-related deaths. The red shaded region in the plot below shows this graphically.

We will refer to this as the optimal temperature method (OTM).

That European headline of 62,000 deaths? That’s this method. The problem is that a lot of these heat-related deaths are occurring at temperatures like 75°F, 80°F, 85°F — temperatures that nobody would consider extreme. While the number of deaths on these days is small, those temperatures occur often, so they dominate the total number of heat-related deaths.

So most of what this method counts isn’t really about heatwaves or record-breaking temperatures. It’s just... summer. It also means that the CNN headline was wrong: most of those 62,000 deaths were not due to extreme temperatures and many of them would have occurred even if the summer had been mild.

For Texas, we estimate roughly 1,130 deaths per year (over 2010-2023) using this method — about 2.2% of all summer deaths.

method 2: the extreme heat method (XHM)

A more intuitive approach is to sum heat-related mortality occurring on days that are extremely hot — say, days above the 95th percentile daily average temperature threshold (the red shaded area in the plot below). This is a more direct metric for what the warmest temperatures are doing.

We will refer to this as the extreme heat method (XHM). Using this method for Texas, we estimate that extreme heat caused an average of 248 summertime deaths per year or about 0.5% of summertime deaths. This is much lower than the OTM because we’re not counting the large number of deaths that occur at moderately hot temperatures.

When we compare these numbers to the official death certificate numbers provided by the Texas Department of State Health Services — which counts cases where a medical examiner determined heat was the cause or a contributor to death — the agreement is good, at least in normal years. In extremely hot years like 2011 or 2023, the official death numbers appear to significantly undercount the true number.

comparison between heat-related deaths from the Extreme Heat Method (XHM) and the official number from the State of Texas (Official Deaths)

The overall agreement between the extreme heat method and the official count makes sense. A medical professional will only attribute a death to heat when the connection is unambiguous and extreme (e.g., a patient comes into the emergency room with core body temperature of 106°F). Such deaths will mainly occur on very hot days.

On the other hand, if someone has a heart attack when it’s 85°F outside, no medical examiner is going to attribute that to heat. The only way to see the impact of heat on such deaths is with a statistical analysis, so you don’t expect these to show up in the official count.

method 3: the excess death method — what climate change actually did

Neither of the first two methods answers the question most people actually want the answer to: how many people did climate change kill?

For that, we use what we refer to as the Excess Death Method (EDM). Our approach is to take today’s mortality risk curve (based on today’s population, today’s demographics, today’s level of adaptation to heat), but plug in the temperatures from a past period — in our analysis, we used 1950-1963.

This gives us an estimate of what today’s mortality would have been had we had temperatures of the mid-20th century. Then we subtract that from the same calculation using the present-day (2010-2023) temperatures. The difference is a measure of the deaths attributable to global warming.

For Texas, this comes out to roughly 900 additional deaths per year due to climate change that occurred since the 1950s, equal to 1.7% of summertime deaths. Using a typical value of a statistical life of $10 million, this corresponds to a value of $9 billion per year due to climate change, or about $300 per Texas resident.

why this matters

The optimal temperature method counts all deaths above the optimal temperature. It’s the most common method in the literature and produces the largest numbers. It’s not wrong, but you should remember that most of these deaths are occurring at mild temperatures that happen every year, so it’s not measuring the impact of “extreme heat” in any intuitive sense2.

The extreme heat method counts only deaths on genuinely hot days. It produces smaller numbers that align well with official death counts from the medical examiners. It’s the better proxy if you want to understand the impact of acute heatwaves.

The excess death method compares mortality in two periods with different climates, holding everything else constant. It’s the best answer to the question “how many people did global warming kill?” For Texas, it’s about 900 people per year or about 1.7% of summertime deaths.

The official numbers from death certificates are almost always lower than all three modeled estimates because it is genuinely hard to establish heat as a cause of death except in the clearest cases. They should be treated in most cases as a lower bound.

The different ways of counting mortality from heat are fundamentally answering different things. Using them interchangeably, or reporting one without specifying which method, creates confusion about the impacts of climate change on mortality.

Because of this, the field would benefit enormously from agreeing on standard metrics. Right now, if you read ten papers on heat mortality, you may be seeing estimates from ten different methods. Getting them standardized and clearly defined matters for accurately reporting the impacts of heat to the public and policymakers.

Our paper: “Quantifying Heat-Related Mortality in Texas: A Comparison of Methods,” published in GeoHealth. Read it here.

You can also watch a talk I gave at NCAR over this material.

If you’re a reporter who wants to do a story on this, email me.

related posts

I’ve written a bunch of other posts about mortality related to extreme heat & cold:

• How extreme heat kills you

• Unraveling the debate: Does heat or cold cause more deaths? Part 1

• Unraveling the debate: Does heat or cold cause more deaths? Part 2

• Adaptation to climate change will be an absolute nightmare

1 This temperature is also sometimes called the Minimum Mortality Temperature, abbreviated MMT.

2 This is also true of ‘cold-related mortality’. Most of those deaths are occurring at moderate temperatures just below the OT.

Welcome to Cited, your essential guide to new climate research.

In the news

SPRING HEATWAVE: Temperature records for May fell across western Europe as the region baked in an “exceptionally early” heatwave, reported the Associated Press. The outlet noted that temperatures reached 35.1C in the UK and 36C in France at the end of last month, with the latter’s national weather service stating that a “heat dome” had produced temperatures more than 10C higher than “usual”. BBC News said temperatures reached 40.3C in Portugal. Carbon Brief explored how the media covered the extreme weather and the role of climate change.

CLIMATE RESEARCH ‘STYMIED’: The White House released draft regulations that would “give political appointees the final word” on federal research grants and other funding across government agencies, reported Scientific American. According to Bloomberg, climate experts said the “sweeping” changes would “stymie research in the field”. At the same time, the Guardian reported the National Science Federation – a US government agency – announced it would be dismantling a $368m deep-sea observation system that provides “crucial” data on ocean systems and climate change. [For more, see ‘Spotlight’ below].

WMO WARNING: A report from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and UK Met Office, covered by Reuters, found that average global temperatures are forecast to reach “near-record levels” in the next five years. The newswire said the report projected that average temperatures each year over 2026-30 will range between 1.3-1.9C above pre-industrial levels, with one year where temperatures will top the warmest year on record, set in 2024.

Research picks Impacts

• Climate change and population growth have led to a 51% increase in global exposure to extreme daytime heat in cities over the past two decades | Communications Earth & Environment
• Global warming interacts with poverty to “magnify educational disruption” and “deepen existing inequities” among children and young people | The Lancet
• Human-caused greenhouse gas emissions has increased the likelihood of “landfalling” oceanic heatwaves by a factor of nine | One Earth

Nature

• Wildfire “disturbances” have been shifting Canada’s forests from a carbon sink to a carbon source since the 2000s | Global Change Biology 
• Following decades of rapid decline, mangrove forests around the world have been recovering since 2010, with both forest loss and degradation rates slowing | Science 
• Large-scale cultivation of macroalgae has “low potential” for carbon dioxide removal and unintended consequences that “can be substantial” | Biogeosciences 

Projections

• Global hailstorm-induced damage potential could increase by 37-42% by the late 21st century, depending on the emission scenario | Nature 
• Even under a low-emissions scenario, 45% and 35% of mountain bird and mammal species, respectively, are at risk of seeing losses in habitat range by 2050 that outweigh any gains by at least 20% | Conservation Biology
• Future warming will likely boost natural methane emissions from freshwater, as methane-oxidising bacteria fail to keep pace | Nature Climate Change

Captured

China accounts for more “conventional” carbon dioxide removal (CDR), such as afforestation and reforestation, than any other country in the world. That is according to the third edition of the annual state of carbon dioxide removal report, published last week and covered in detail by Carbon Brief. China’s average conventional CDR of 539m tonnes of CO2 over 2014-23 is more than double that of the US, the next-highest country.   

625

How many times greater cities in the global south experienced “compound” exposure to extreme heat and air pollution than global-north cities over 2003-20, according to an npj urban sustainability study.

Spotlight AMOC observations at risk Ocean Station Papa instrumentation buoy, among those slated for removal. Credit: PMEL

The Irminger Sea, a patch of frigid ocean east of Greenland, plays an outsized role in the Earth’s climate. 

Here, surface water that has travelled thousands of kilometres from the tropics grows cold and dense enough to sink to the ocean’s depths – a transformation that must occur for the water to begin a long journey back to the southern hemisphere.

This makes the Irminger Sea an “action centre” for the mighty Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), the vast system of ocean currents that keeps temperatures in Europe mild.

Last week, the US government announced plans to dismantle ocean moorings installed in the Irminger Sea which, among other things, collect data on the health of the AMOC.

This came as part of a programme to “descope” the Ocean Observatories Initiative, a $368m network of ocean sensors installed in the Pacific and Atlantic oceans.

Two of the moorings earmarked for removal in the Irminger Sea form part of an internationally funded, trans-Atlantic AMOC monitoring array, known as OSNAP, that stretches from Canada to Scotland.

Experts told Carbon Brief the move by the Trump administration highlights the vulnerability of AMOC observation systems around the world. These deep-sea moorings – scattered across the Atlantic – collect real-time data on, among other things, ocean current, temperature, pressure and biochemistry.

Prof Penny Holliday, chief scientific officer of the UK National Oceanography Centre, told Carbon Brief that the OSNAP array, as well as the RAPID array at 26N, are “entirely dependent” on research grants that have to be “continually reapplied for”. 

“Funding is perilous all the time,” she said.

A report prepared last month by scientists for Nordic ministers exploring the security of funding for AMOC observing systems warned that RAPID and OSNAP were in “critical condition” and faced “material exposure over an 18-month horizon”. Meanwhile, other key basin-wide and global components of the global AMOC observing system were rated as “at risk”.

It is not just US funding that is uncertain. The report notes, for example, that the five-yearly funding the UK provides to RAPID and OSNAP is “at risk from 2027 due to year-on-year budget reductions” at the Natural Environmental Research Council. 

(RAPID is funded by the US and UK, whereas OSNAP is backed by five different countries, with the US contributing half of the total financial support.)

Report co-author Dr Femke de Jong from the Royal Netherlands Institute for Sea Research told Carbon Brief that “continued AMOC observations” are under pressure in “multiple countries”. She said:

“While the risk of a declining AMOC to society is starting to be recognised, there is not yet a system or institution in place to guarantee a way to monitor it.”

AMOC monitoring arrays are still in their infancy – RAPID, the oldest, was launched in 2004. Two decades of data captured so far shows that the AMOC is slowing down. However, scientists will need many more years of data to be able to confidently link the decline to climate change, rather than natural variability in the ocean. 

NOC’s Holliday points to the disconnect between scientific and funder timelines:

“The timescale of observations needed in order to be able to detect a climate change signal from the very naturally variable ocean is around 40-60 years…. [And yet], in the Netherlands, they have to apply for a new grant for their ocean moorings every two years. They are going to have to do that for 40 years. 

“This is a very inefficient way of getting funding for what should be critical infrastructure.”

Preprints to watch

Carbon Brief’s pick of new papers still going through peer review

• Urban areas were responsible for two-thirds of CO2 emissions from burning fossil fuels in 2022 | Nature portfolio
• Climate adaptation measures are responsible for one-quarter of greenhouse gas emissions and three-quarters of human freshwater withdrawals | Earth System Dynamics
• Global food miles – the emissions generated from transporting food – could be “lower than previously estimated”, at around 0.82bn tonnes per year | Nature portfolio

Noticeboard

• 10 June: AMS Washington Forum early registration deadline 
• 10-12 June: Fourth international conference on carbon dioxide removal, Milan
• 11 June: Application deadline for postdoctoral research position in the political economy of net-zero at the University of Oxford; Salary: £39,424-47,779
• Mid-June: AGU annual meeting abstract submissions open
• 17 June: World Weaving climate research programme funding application deadline
• 17 June: CCMC lecture (online): “Temperature, health and adaptation: What actually protects people?”
• 21 June: Application deadline for postdoctoral research position in extreme event health impacts at Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam; Salary: £42,552-66,456

Cited is researched and written by Cecilia Keating, Robert McSweeney, Ayesha Tandon, Daisy Dunne and Dr Giuliana Viglione.

Please send tips, feedback and upcoming climate research to cited@carbonbrief.org

This is an online version of Carbon Brief’s fortnightly Cited email newsletter. Subscribe for free here.

The post Cited 9 June 2026: Europe’s ‘exceptional’ heatwave | Warming forecast | AMOC observations ‘at risk’ appeared first on Carbon Brief.

This is a re-post from Yale Climate Connections by Bob Henson

It might have seemed exotic when it first appeared, but the forecast “cone of uncertainty” used by the NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center (NHC) is now a familiar part of tropical cyclone readiness in U.S. states and territories. For 2026, NHC has made a couple of key tweaks to its standard cone product. It’s also testing an expanded version of the cone – one made feasible by a new way of understanding how and where forecast errors arise.

Since its debut in 2002, the cone has become what a University of Miami writer called “arguably [the center’s] most iconic graphic,” a mainstay of TV coverage and weather apps. Prior to the cone, hurricane maps simply showed a line depicting the official multi-day forecast for the storm center, as issued every six hours by NHC. Experts urged the public not to “focus on the skinny line,” keeping in mind that a hurricane’s path can easily deviate from the forecast track and that impacts will typically extend far beyond that center.

When you see a cone graphic, that ‘skinny line’ may or may not appear (NHC provides both versions), but the cone itself has gone a long way to fix the skinny-line problem.

However, just as a hurricane’s impacts do not just lie along a narrow line, a hurricane’s damage doesn’t stop when it comes ashore. Some of the worst U.S. hurricane disasters in recent years have occurred well inland, including billions of dollars in wind-driven destruction across Georgia in 2018’s Michael, and the catastrophic, deadly flooding from 2024’s Helene, which killed more than 100 people in and around western North Carolina.

Up through last year, NHC’s cone graphics only showed watches and warnings along the coastline. Starting this year, the full extent of inland watches and warnings will be portrayed. In the example shown in Fig. 1 below, the revised graphics make it crystal clear that the hurricane warning for 2024’s Milton extended almost completely across the entire Florida Peninsula, including the Orlando area.

Another improvement shown in Fig. 1 is the addition of a crosshatched area to denote locations that are under both a hurricane watch and a tropical storm warning. It’s an important way to show that being in a tropical storm warning doesn’t mean you are necessarily off the hook for potential hurricane-level impacts.

Figure 1. A comparison of the original forecast cone for Hurricane Milton issued at 4 a.m. CDT October 8, 2024 (left) and how the same forecast would look in the revised cone graphic being used this year (right). The area crosshatched in blue and pink lines is under both a hurricane watch (pink) and a tropical storm warning (blue). The revised cone graphic will also use gray shading for the entire length of the cone, rather than for only the first three days of the five-day forecast period. (Image credit: NOAA/NWS/NHC)

When bad stuff happens outside the cone

Maybe because it’s so visually intuitive, the cone can deceive. The most common way to misinterpret the cone is to assume that it includes all possible hurricane tracks and that all serious hurricane impacts will fall inside the cone. It’s a problem that experts across disciplines have dubbed the “containment effect.”

The misunderstanding has led to some painful lessons. One of the most dramatic was in 2022, when Hurricane Ian veered toward the right-hand edge of the cone. Ian made a high-end Category 4 landfall near Fort Myers less than 36 hours after the official skinny-line track forecast had projected a strike near Tampa Bay. Because Ian was such a large and potent hurricane, its storm surge extended well to the right of the cone, delivering major flooding as far south as Naples. Ian took at least 161 lives and inflicted $112 billion in damage (USD 2022).

Multiple lines of social science research confirm that many laypeople make the mistake of assuming hurricanes simply don’t stray outside the cone. One survey of more than 2,800 Floridians led by Scotney Evans (University of Miami) and published in 2022 by the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society found that nearly half of respondents assumed that the cone showed all of the potential tracks for a hurricane. 

“Our analysis suggests that many residents have difficulty interpreting several aspects, suggesting a rethink on how to graphically communicate aspects such as uncertainty; the size of the storm; areas of likely damage; watches and warnings; and wind intensity categories,” Evans and colleagues wrote. In some cases, better-educated respondents were actually more likely to misinterpret certain aspects of the cone. 

READ: Building a better hurricane cone of uncertainty

The issue is especially acute because of the cone’s sheer popularity. “The cone is one of the most, if not the most, commonly shared hurricane visuals,” said Robert Prestley (NSF National Center for Atmospheric Research).

A 2020 overview of hurricane risk communication in the journal Weather, Climate, and Society, led by Barbara Millett (University of Miami), noted that during the five days as Hurricane Irma approached Miami in 2017, the cone map accounted for more than 70% of independent pageviews at the NHC website. In a 2023 study published in the same journal, Prestley and NCAR’s Rebecca Morss found that cone graphics were retweeted more often than watch/warning graphics on Twitter.

With all this in the mix, “it was taking people by surprise when the hurricane would move outside the cone,” said Robbie Berg, warning coordination meteorologist at NHC.

In fact, the cone’s width is calculated for each storm based on the previous five years of track locations in the official NHC forecasts, rather than on how well or poorly behaved a particular storm might be. Based on average track errors from those preceding five years, the cone width is calibrated to include about two-thirds (67 percent) of all potential storm positions. This means that by design, one would expect the center of a hurricane to stray outside the cone margins about one-third of the time.

Making the cone substantially wider might seem like an obvious fix, but this approach carries its own hazards. Evacuations are based largely on storm surge risk rather than the cone itself, and storm surge warnings can extend well beyond the cone. However, a greatly expanded cone could mean a larger number of people finding themselves in a cone year after year, perhaps without significant impacts each time.

“Research shows the public perceives the cone as an area of concern – an indication to continue monitoring the forecast,” said Gina Eosco, director of NOAA’s Weather Program Office and a pioneering researcher on how people interpret the cone and other forecast products.

Since 2007, forecasters at NHC have used the two-thirds index for the cone width as a working compromise between overly narrow and overly broad. But a new way of analyzing errors from past years has paved the way to an experimental cone that would alert more people without including all that much more territory.

The key, according to Berg, was to decompose the total track error. A track forecast can make mistakes that are either “cross-track” (erring in the direction of motion) or “along-track”  (moving the system too quickly or too slowly). Standard practice is to draw the cone’s edges along each side of a series of circles straddling the forecast track, with the radius of each circle set to include 67 percent of potential positions and the circles growing larger with each forecast day.

As it turns out, timing mistakes (along-track) tend to produce bigger errors than do directional mistakes (cross-track), as shown in Fig. 2 below. Using circles to pool all of these errors obscures the difference between the two types, thus making the cone wider and less elongated than it ought to be.

Figure 2. Schematic showing a circle that denotes absolute error, pooling the along- and cross-track errors into a single value, and the ellipse that results when the two types of errors are assessed separately rather than pooled. (Image credit: NOAA/NWS/NHC)

When NHC examined the two types of error, they discovered that only a minor widening and lengthening of the cone could enclose 90 percent of possible positions, as opposed to the current 67 percent. This 90-percent cone is being used in experimental mode for the first time this season (see Fig. 3 below), alongside the traditional 67-percent version. The center will solicit comments and feedback before any move to finalize and adopt the experimental version. It’s been well received at conferences, according to Berg.

“Especially as we get out toward day 4 or 5, most of the error is in the along-track part of the storm,” said Berg. “Going to 90% doesn’t increase the width of the cone much. It’s more that you’re increasing the length.”

Figure 3. Comparison of the current operational cone (dashed red line) with the slightly larger experimental version (white shading). The dashed red line is only for illustrative purposes, so that the two versions can be compared here in one graphic. (Image credit: NOAA/NWS/NHC)

Another benefit of the 90% cone: some other NHC products already use the same threshold. For example, peak storm surge forecasts depict the maximum inundation one would expect from a given tropical cyclone approaching a given stretch of coast. These forecasts are calibrated so that a value higher than the maximum shown would be expected only 10% of the time. “So we’re trending in this direction: reasonable worst case, trying to capture as much of the risk as possible,” Berg said.

“The changes to the cone show remarkable scientific advancement,” said Eosco.

Meanwhile, the traditional version of the forecast cone will slim down a bit this year. Because of reduced error in the forecasts for 2021–2025 compared to 2020–2024, the two-thirds probability circles for 2026 will be 4 to 8 percent smaller on average in the Atlantic and 3 to 8 percent smaller in the Northeast Pacific. Such incremental improvements over the past couple of decades have led to striking reductions in cone size (see embedded post from 2025 below).

A timely year for new storm surge products in Hawaii

With El Niño boosting the odds that tropical cyclones will affect Hawaii this season, it’s fortuitous that NHC is now launching the same type of storm surge products for the main Hawaiian Islands that are regularly issued for the U.S. East and Gulf Coasts, Puerto Rico, and the U.S. Virgin Islands. These will include the peak storm surge forecasts noted above.

Behind the storm surge forecasts are exhaustive calculations carried out across more than 20 years of work using the P-Surge (probabilistic storm surge) model. The resulting datasets show the potential inundations at coastal points separated by 2.5 kilometers (about 1.6 miles) based on winds and atmospheric pressures from as many as 1,000 simulated tropical cyclones. As this work continues, NHC is looking to expand storm surge forecasts more broadly through the Caribbean in the coming years.

As stressed by Eosco: “Regardless of the cone’s shape or size, monitoring the forecast is a critical first step in assessing personal risk and empowering personal decision-making.”

A listing of 28 news and opinion articles we found interesting and shared on social media during the past week: Sun, May 31, 2026 thru Sat, June 6, 2026. Stories we promoted this week, by category:

Climate Policy and Politics (8 articles)

• Scilencing The Trump Administration would just as soon we didn't know stuff, especially about our planet The Crucial Years, Bill McKibben, May 31, 2026.
• Companies No Longer Report Greenhouse Gas Emissions And Climate Risk Progressive lawmakers and environmental groups strongly condemned the decision, arguing that it leaves investors in the dark regarding trillions of dollars in hidden climate liabilities and systemic economic risks. Climate News Now, Climate News Now, May 31, 2026.
• DOE restarts home efficiency rebates, and electrification is the biggest loser New rules for the $8.8 billion in program funding no longer promote electric home heating. The Daily Climate, Dan Gearino, Jun 02, 2026.
• Dismay as Trump officials to dismantle key ocean monitoring system Ocean Observatories Initiative, $368m network that has provided crucial climate data, latest victim of Trump cuts The Guardian, Maya Yang, Jun 02, 2026.
• USDA revamp of `climate smart` program left farmers reeling With dubious DOGE savings, the agency has left farmers with fewer tools to address the climate crisis. Civil Eats, Lisa Held, Jun 04, 2026.
• The wasting disease threatening US science and ‘Patient Earth’ Bulletin of the Atomic Scienctists, Benjamin Santer, June 4, 2026.
• California and New York weaken climate rules as red states ramp up green energy Republican-led states growing renewable capabilities at faster rate as Texas emerges as clean-energy leader The Guardian, Dharna Noor and Oliver Milman, Jun 04, 2026.
• Scientists warn Trump plan to axe US ocean monitoring system will leave world `flying blind` Experts say dismantling the ocean observation system will ‘severely degrade’ the accuracy of weather predictions Environment The Guardian, Karen McVeigh, Jun 05, 2026.

Climate Science and Research (7 articles)

• Current and Future Changes in Earth's Outgoing Infrared Spectrum Study finds fingerprint of global warming on infrared energy spectrum emitted by Earth. Geophysical Research Letters, Shaw et al., May 30, 2026.
• Antarctic climate change is coming: this will help us prepare Dr Gilbz on Youtube, Ella Gilbert, May 30, 2026.
• Trump Administration to Dismantle Ocean Monitoring System The $368 million network of instruments collecting data in both the Atlantic and Pacific has been critical to climate and ocean research. New York Times, Eric Niiler, June 1, 2026.
• Climate-based tool predicts coral bleaching months in advance, offering critical lead time for reef protection Phys.org, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Jun 02, 2026.
• Extreme weather is making Antarctic research harder, but new technology is providing some answers - new study The Conversation, Katharine Hendry, Jun 02, 2026.
• Skeptical Science New Research for Week #23 2026 Skeptical Science's weekly survey of newly published academic climate research and select government/NGO climate-related reports and analysis. Skeptical Science, Doug Bostrom & Marc Kodack, Jun 04, 2026.
• Satellite images reveals mangroves rebounding worldwide - but here's why they could still 'drown' A new study finds mangrove forests are no longer shrinking worldwide and offering hope for coastal protection and climate resilience, but sea level rise remains a threat. Live Science, Kenna Hughes-Castleberry, Jun 04, 2026.

Climate Change Impacts (5 articles)

• They call it stupid hot for a reason: Heat muddles animal brains As temperatures rise, some creatures pick fights while others struggle to learn. Ars Technica, Marta Zaraska, May 31, 2026.
• Coral Reefs in French Polynesia Are Stuck Between Life and Death Scientists’ discovery of hollowed coral skeletons after a 2019 bleaching event reveals a reef that isn’t coming back. Inside Climate News, Ryan Green, Jun 01, 2026.
• Colorado River faces `devastating consequences` if another dry winter lands, experts warn Even a huge snowpack during the coming winter would only give the river basin states less than two years of storage before reservoirs returned to historic lows. Inside Climate News, Jake Bolster, Jun 03, 2026.
• Climate change may shift hailstorms towards Earth`s poles - new study Two studies point to increasing risk from hail damage in a warming world, even though the details of where this will be experienced are still not clear. The Conversation, Timothy H. Raupach, Jun 03, 2026.
• School in a hot world: what research is saying about children`s health and learning While much attention has focused on climate impacts like droughts, floods and food insecurity, another crisis is unfolding quietly inside classrooms, where research has shown that some schools are becoming dangerously hot places for children to develop, learn and play. The Conversation, Caradee Yael Wright and Natasha Naidoo, Jun 04, 2026.

Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation (4 articles)

• As Seas Rise, Louisiana Faces a Choice: Plan for Movement or Let Crisis Decide Coastal Louisiana may be ground zero for climate migration in the U.S., but a new study argues that planning now could turn displacement into agency. Inside Climate News, Avery Schuyler Nunn, May 30, 2026.
• How methane policy will make or break the climate crisis While some countries are introducing abatement policies, key gaps remain in current policies. The Conversation, Helena Wright, Executive Director, Climate Policy Monitor, University of Oxford, Jun 03, 2026.
• Electric vehicles cut pollution in China – and prevent 260,000 premature deaths Having fewer fossil-fuel powered cars on the road is reducing some pollutants, but not others. Nature, Claudia Steiner, June 5, 2026.
• UK urged not to further weaken EV rules as CO2 impact revealed British vehicles will emit extra 17m tonnes of CO2 by 2030 due to loophole allowing sale of more PHEVs, data suggests. The Guardian, Jasper Jolly, Jun 06, 2026.

Miscellaneous (2 articles)

• A Rule That Would Rewrite the Terms of U.S. Science A new rule promulgated by the US executive branch would give political appointees veto power over peer review, allow the government to cancel active grants mid-project with minimal justification, ban entire categories of science from federal funding, and restrict researchers’ ability to publish their work and attend scientific conferences. American Geophysical Union, Brando Jones, May 4, 2026.
• 2026 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #22 A listing of 28 news and opinion articles we found interesting and shared on social media during the past week: Sun, May 24, 2026 thru Sat, May 30, 2026. Skeptical Science, Bärbel Winkler & Doug Bostrom, May 31, 2026.

Climate Education and Communication (1 article)

• Irish people's lack of concern over climate action due to mixed messaging from politicians What is clear from the Irish Examiner climate poll is that the gap between the intensifying global climate crisis and public concern is still very wide Irish Examiner, John Gibbons, Jun 02, 2026.

Public Misunderstandings about Climate Solutions (1 article)

• Fact brief - Do electric vehicles almost always have a lower carbon footprint than gasoline-powered cars? Analysis indicates that electric vehicles nearly always end up with a net benefit for reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Skeptical Science, Sue Bin Park, Jun 02, 2026.

If you happen upon high quality climate-science and/or climate-myth busting articles from reliable sources while surfing the web, please feel free to submit them via this Google form so that we may share them widely. Thanks!

From time to time, we announce housekeeping items that cover various changes in the Skeptical Science (SkS) web site. Today, it's an important one for all people who are posting comments on our articles: an update to the Comments Policy.

Reasons for the Updates

The Comments Policy is an important document at SkS: not only does it provide guidance for the behaviour of commenters, but it also provides guidance to the moderators on how to deal with comment threads that are starting to go off the rails. The moderation team strives to apply a reasonably uniform level of moderation, and the Comments Policy is the set of rules we follow.

We have been discussing some updates internally over the past few weeks, and now it is time to have the changes go live. The changes have been prompted by a few recent comments that started to use AI to generate text. (We'll stick with the formal definition of AI as "Artificial Intelligence", although I am sure that readers will have their own favorite interpretation.) Moderators have been asking commenters to limit their use of AI, but there is nothing in the previous Comments Policy related to AI. That is now changing.

Essentially all of the previous Comments Policy (archived here) is still in force. There are a few changes in wording, and the order has changed slightly, but if it was in the old Comments Policy, it is in the new one. The updated Comments Policy groups the various policies under six headings, as follows:

• Purpose
• All comments must be on topic
• Speak for yourself and back up your argument
• Civil Conduct
• Account creation and usage
• Summary

The new material falls under the "Speak for yourself and back  up your argument" heading. The main text in that section talks about the  importance of providing links to relevant information, explaining what the reader should find at those sources, etc. SkS is about the science of climate change, and scientific discussion expects references to relevant material and proper citation of sources. Two items from the old Comments Policy are located here: "No sloganeering", and "No link or picture only". But there are two new items of importance, related to copying large blocks of text or images from other sources. The first item covers copying from regular sources such as journals, reports, web pages, etc. The second specifically covers the use of AI-generated text.

Using AI in comments

In essence, when you use AI to generate text and want to add it to a comment, you are no longer speaking for yourself - you are quoting a different source. Proper scientific citation rules require that you indicate that you are quoting a different source, and provide a reference to what that source is. To quote from the updated policy: "Quoting or copying material from other sources without a proper citation constitutes plagiarism, which is not allowed."

The use of AI is not banned, but we are placing strict limits on how it can be used. Full disclosure: after we wrote the new sections of the Comments Policy. we asked the Gemini AI to suggest if there were options to improve the sequence of the various items. Gemini suggested grouping the items into several categories. We had already grouped some items into the "Speak for yourself and back  up your argument" category, but the remaining items were still in a simple list. Gemini suggested grouping the remaining items into a few categories. In the end, we went with different categories (and labels for the categories), but we did find the Gemini suggestion useful.

....and this demonstrates a reasonable use of AI: ask it for help, look at its suggestions, but apply your own judgement to the results. The SkS Comments Policy is an SkS product, and we need to be willing to stand behind it. It is the voice of SkS, speaking to all our readers.

Small change in wording

The astute reader will  notice one key change in the Comments Policy, compared to the old one. In the old policy, we referred to "global warming". In the new one, we refer to "climate change". The second phrase is more all-encompassing with respect to climate science, and makes more sense in the broader view covered here at SkS. Before anyone gets their knickers in a knot over this change, we suggest they read the "Global Warming vs. Climate Change" rebuttal that sits at the number 89 spot on our Global Warming and Climate Change Myths list.

One last point: although "Moderation complaints are always off-topic",  this is one blog post where limited discussion of moderation will be allowed. Behave yourselves, though.

And now, a copy of the full new Comments Policy:

Purpose

The purpose of the discussion threads is to allow notification and correction of errors in the article, and to permit clarification of related points. Though we believe the only genuine debate on the science of climate change is that which occurs in the scientific literature, we welcome genuine discussion as both an aid to understanding and a means of correcting our inadvertent errors.  To facilitate genuine discussion, we have a zero tolerance approach to trolling and sloganeering. To that end:

All comments must be on topic

Comments are on topic if they draw attention to possible errors of fact or interpretation in the main article, or if they discuss the immediate implications of the facts discussed in the main article. However, general discussions of climate change not explicitly related to the details of the main article are always off topic. Moderation complaints are always off topic and will be deleted. To expand on this requirement:

• Make comments in the most appropriate thread.  Some comments, while strictly on topic, may relate to issues discussed in more detail in some other thread.  Extended discussion of those points should be carried out in the more appropriate thread, with link backs to reference the discussion as needed.  Moderator's directions to move discussion to a more appropriate thread should always be followed.
• Comments should avoid excessive repetition. Discussions which circle back on themselves and involve endless repetition of points already discussed do not help clarify relevant points. They are merely tiresome to participants and a barrier to readers. If moderators believe you are being excessively repetitive, they will advise you as such, and any further repetition will be treated as being off topic.
• No copying and pasting earlier comments. Comments repeated from earlier comments (or from other websites) will be moderated. However, short excerpts from earlier comments are accepted if making an on-topic point, preferably with a hyperlink. Note that with each comment, the date/time is a hyperlink. If you link to this URL, clicking on the link will take you directly to that part of the webpage.
• No spamming. Spamming will result in deletion of comments and suspension of the account without warning.

Speak for yourself and back up your argument

When you are posting comments, it is expected that you are speaking for yourself and are willing to back up your argument with relevant information. We encourage you to provide links to relevant scientific papers and reports, images available on the Internet, and sources of information that provide additional detail regarding the points you want to make. You need to explain in your comment why such sources are relevant, and what a reader should expect to find in that source. You are the one making the argument, and the reader should not have to spend large amounts of time trying to figure out your point. As a consequence of this policy, we also state the following:

• No sloganeering.  Comments consisting of simple assertion of a myth already debunked by one of the main articles, and which contain no relevant counter argument or evidence from the peer reviewed literature constitutes trolling rather than genuine discussion. As such they will be deleted. If you think our debunking of one of those myths is in error, you are welcome to discuss that on the relevant thread, provided you give substantial reasons for believing the debunking is in error.  It is asked that you do not clutter up threads by responding to comments that consist just of slogans.
• No link or picture only. Any link or picture should be accompanied by text summarizing both the content of the link or picture, and showing how it is relevant to the topic of discussion. Failure to do both of these things will result in the comment being considered off topic.
• No cutting and pasting of large blocks of text or images from other sources (journal articles, reports, web pages, etc.).  It is reasonable to include one or two paragraphs or images in your comment from a scientific source such as a peer-reviewed paper or report, but this should only represent a portion of your comment.  Provide a link to or a clear identification of the original source - this is the standard approach to scientific citation. Quoting or copying material from other sources without a proper citation constitutes plagiarism, which is not allowed. The reader must be able to find the original source, in order to verify the material. If the source you want to refer to has a lot of material that you think is relevant, provide a summary of what you want the reader to see and provide a link so that the reader can easily access the full material. If you are unwilling or unable to read the source and provide a summary, then there is little reason to think that the source is on-topic or relevant. Moderators may delete such posts as off-topic.
• The above ban on pasting large blocks of text also applies to AI-generated content. If you want to use AI to help you understand the topic, then that is your choice. Keep in mind, however, that AI sources are energy-intensive and you should ask yourself if that cost really provides a value-added contribution to the conversation. AI-generated content should be kept to a minimum, identified as such, with indications of the source and key words or questions used to feed it. As is the case for any other links, images, quotes, etc., provide a summary of the AI content to demonstrate that you understand it and see it as relevant. When you add AI-generated content to your comment, you are no longer speaking for yourself - you are quoting someone (something?) else, and need to cite the source.

Civil conduct

All participants are expected to conduct themselves in a civil manner. More specifically:

• No accusations of deception.  Any accusations of deception, fraud, dishonesty or corruption will be deleted. This applies to both sides. You may critique a person's methods but not their motives.
• No ad hominem attacks. Personally attacking other users gets us no closer to understanding the science. For example, comments containing the words 'religion' and 'conspiracy' tend to get moderated. Comments using labels like 'alarmist' and 'denier' as derogatory terms are usually skating on thin ice.
• No politics. Rants about politics, religion, faith, ideology or one world governments will be deleted. Occasional blog posts on Skeptical Science touch on issues intimately related to politics.  For those posts this rule may be relaxed, but only if explicitly stated at the end of the blogpost.
• No ALL CAPS. You can't have a civil, constructive discussion if you're shouting.
• No profanity or inflammatory tone. Again, constructive discussion is difficult when overheated rhetoric or profanity is flying around.
• No cyber stalking. Posting personal details of another user results in your account being banned from Skeptical Science.
• No dogpiling.  In the interests of civility and to enable people to properly express their opinions, we discourage 'piling on'. If a comment already has a response, consider carefully whether you are adding anything interesting before also responding.  If a participant appears to be being 'dog piled', the moderator may designate one or two people from each side of the debate as the primary disputants and require that no other people respond until further notified. On topic comments on other matters not being discussed by the primary disputants will still be welcome.

Account creation and usage

• No multiple identities.  Posting comments at Skeptical Science should use only one registered screen name. Use of more than one account will result in all accounts being banned.
• You are not allowed to use two different identities at the same time.
• You are not allowed to create a second identity to replace an identity that has had its posting rights revoked due to an inability or unwillingness to follow the Comments Policy.
• Commenters must register a valid email address. To register and confirm a user account at Skeptical Science requires a valid email address. 

Summary

Please note that posting on Skeptical Science is a privilege, not a right. We try to avoid harsh application of the comments policy in the interests of a free flowing discussion, but expect your cooperation in return. If that cooperation is not forthcoming, moderators will resort to a very strict application of the comments policy to your posts, and if persisted with, it will result in deletion of your posts, or the suspension of your posting privileges. If we all followed these guidelines in any discussion, perhaps the world would be a calmer and more constructive place.

The Comment Policy page was already updated on June 4, 2026 in preparation for this housekeeping blog post's publication on June 5. Any comments posted after this announcement will be moderated based on the new Comment Policy.

Welcome to Carbon Brief’s DeBriefed. 
An essential guide to the week’s key developments relating to climate change.

This week UK proposes new emissions target

‘ON COURSE’: The UK government has proposed reducing the country’s greenhouse gas emissions to 87% below 1990 levels by 2040, reported the Associated Press. The newswire cited scientists saying that the goal “puts the UK on course to meet its 2050 net-zero target”. To meet this target, the UK would “need to invest around £880bn over 25 years…but doing so would yield benefits worth £1,620bn”, according to an in-depth analysis of the plans by  Carbon Brief.

UPCOMING ‘FLASHPOINT’: The Financial Times noted that, for the target to become “legally binding”, it must be approved by parliament. While the UK’s previous carbon budget “received cross-party support”, this time the proposal is “expected to become a flashpoint among lawmakers”, it added, with both the Conservatives and Reform pledging to “scrap” net-zero policies.

DRIVING FORCE: Separately, a new report by consultancy Confederation of British Industry (CBI) Economics has valued the UK’s “net-zero economy” at more than £100bn a year, reported the Guardian. It added that, by a broad measure, the UK energy transition supports 1.1m jobs and provides “nearly 4% of the UK’s economic output”.

US ‘dismantling’ oceans data

SYSTEMS OFFLINE: The Trump administration is “dismantling” a “$368m deep-ocean observation system” that, among other things, allows scientists to monitor the ocean currents that affect the global climate and understand how the “ocean is absorbing greenhouse gases from the atmosphere”, said the New York Times. Bloomberg reported that Trump’s efforts to close the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), a key climate science research institution, has been “temporarily blocked” by a judge. 

RULE ROLLBACK: The US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), an independent body that regulates US securities markets, has proposed repealing the climate-disclosure rule, which “requires some public companies to report their greenhouse gas emissions and the risks they face from global warming”, said the Associated Press. The Trump administration also announced plans to allocate $700m to support “clean, beautiful coal” power and export infrastructure, said BBC News.

Around the world

• EU EXEMPTIONS: The EU will allow member states to breach the bloc’s fiscal rules to “cope with high energy prices stoked by the Iran war”, as long as the measures they use help “accelerate the transition away from fossil fuels”, reported Bloomberg.
• SLOW SPENDING: The German government has only paid out €24bn of the €37bn it was “supposed to disburse” in 2025 from a special fund for infrastructure and “climate neutrality”, reported Clean Energy Wire. 
• URGENT WARNING: UN secretary-general António Guterres said a likely upcoming El Niño weather event must be treated as the “urgent climate warning it is”, said Al Jazeera.
• HOEKSTRA ON COP: The outcomes of many of the most recent COPs have been “underwhelming”, EU climate commissioner Wopke Hoekstra has said, according to Reuters. COPs should be supplemented by “smaller groups…who are willing ​to move faster”, he added.

3,400

The number of excess deaths across India caused by a single day of extreme heat, according to coverage in the Hindustan Times of a new study.

30,000

Excess deaths caused if the extreme heat lasts five days.

Latest climate research

• In a 1.5C warmer world, the timing of floods will shift by more than seven days across half of the world’s landmass | Nature Communications
• Temperature and rainfall together account for more than 13% of methane generated from landfills in Incheon, South Korea | Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics
• The postponed International Maritime Organisation “net-zero framework” could increase biofuel use in shipping to 40% by 2050 | Nature Energy

(For more, see Carbon Brief’s in-depth daily summaries of the top climate news stories on Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday and Friday.)

Captured

China’s carbon dioxide emissions grew by 2% in the first quarter of 2026 due to a rise in “wasted” wind and solar generation, according to new analysis for Carbon Brief. However, emissions remain below their March 2024 peak, it added.

Spotlight Why China’s solar boom is slowing down

China made headlines in 2025 for installing record levels of solar. But in 2026, new capacity is expected to be lower than last year’s figures. 

This week, Carbon Brief examines what is behind China’s lower 2026 solar additions. 

Solar power has been a major element of China’s renewables buildout since the mid-2010s. 

The country installed 315 gigawatts (GW) of new capacity in 2025, adding more than half of all new solar globally. The year before, it added 277GW.

But the picture in 2026 to date is very different. Installations in March fell 56% year-on-year to 9GW, while new capacity in April totalled 10GW, a 79% drop compared to a year earlier, according to Carbon Brief’s analysis of official data.

Domestic uncertainty

The lower pace in 2026 had been anticipated by analysts.

In previous years, massive solar installations were driven by strong policy support for renewables, including a fixed-price tariff for generators.

In February 2025, the government announced that new solar and wind projects would instead be financed through a new “contract for difference” (CfD)-style system. 

Under the new system, power from a certain amount of renewable capacity will be purchased for a fixed “strike price”, which to date has been far lower than previous guaranteed tariffs. Further projects will need to secure their own contracts on the open market.

While the new system is posing challenges for developers in the short term, it is part of a longer-term shift towards market-driven pricing for renewables, which has already made them cheaper than coal.  

The change led to a rush of new project installations ahead of the June 2025 cut-off date, so that they could fall under the old fixed-price regime.

New solar additions totalled 45GW in April 2025 and 93GW in May 2025, before falling to 14GW in June 2025, according to Carbon Brief analysis of government data.

Additions also spiked in December, in both 2024 and 2025, as developers raced to meet completion deadlines including those under the 14th five-year plan.   

Some reports have attributed the precipitous drop this year to falling demand for solar in China.

But this is a “major oversimplification”, David Fishman, principal at energy consultancy the Lantau Group, wrote on LinkedIn.

The real challenge, he said, is that “developers and banks [are] still figuring out how to finance and build projects without policy-backed revenue guarantees”.

Yang Biqing, energy analyst for Asia at thinktank Ember, agrees, telling Carbon Brief that the new CfD-style system has created “greater uncertainty” for developers, compounded by fierce competition and a growing push for “consolidation” in the industry.

The government set a target for 200GW of new solar and wind capacity in 2026. 

Fishman told Carbon Brief that this will be “difficult” for the government to achieve, though not impossible. Current levels of solar additions – reaching perhaps 120GW for the year – plus an “ambitious” 80GW of new wind power, could help China to hit the target, he said.

Others are more bullish. The China Photovoltaic Industry Association forecasts 180-240GW of new solar in 2026.

But few believe additions will match the breakneck pace of 2025. 

“China’s solar industry is no longer a story of capacity expansion”, said Yang, with officials now “increasingly” focused on integrating current generation into the grid. 

Soaring exports

Meanwhile, China’s solar exports are still going strong.

China exported almost 1.2m tonnes of solar cells in April 2026, according to Reuters. Although down from a record high in March, it represented a 60% rise year-on-year, added the newswire.

This signals solar’s attractiveness globally in the face of rising energy prices caused by the Iran-US conflict, analysts have said. 

High demand for panels has been reported across several continents, including Europe, Asia and Africa. 

For example, in the Philippines, the conflict is “driving” solar uptake, one analyst told the Associated Press, adding:

“People want solar and people want solar now.”

A version of this article is also available on the Carbon Brief website.

Watch, read, listen

EL NIÑO IMPACTS: An interactive piece from BBC News described how the forecasted “super” El Niño could impact global climate and weather in the coming months.

‘CAUTIONARY TALE’: Two researchers wrote in Climate Home News that “Indonesia’s failing Just Energy Transition Partnership is a cautionary tale”.

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The post DeBriefed 5 June 2026: UK eyes 2040 emissions cut | US ‘dismantling’ oceans research | China’s solar slump appeared first on Carbon Brief.

Solar power has been a major element of China’s renewables buildout since the mid-2010s. 

The country installed 315 gigawatts (GW) of new capacity in 2025, adding more than half of all new solar globally. The year before, it added 277GW.

But the picture in 2026 to date is very different. Installations in March fell 56% year-on-year to 9GW, while new capacity in April totalled 10GW, a 79% drop compared to a year earlier, according to Carbon Brief’s analysis of official data.

Domestic uncertainty

The lower pace in 2026 had been anticipated by analysts.

In previous years, massive solar installations were driven by strong policy support for renewables, including a fixed-price tariff for generators.

In February 2025, the government announced that new solar and wind projects would instead be financed through a new “contract for difference” (CfD)-style system. 

Under the new system, power from a certain amount of renewable capacity will be purchased for a fixed “strike price”, which to date has been far lower than previous guaranteed tariffs. Further projects will need to secure their own contracts on the open market.

While the new system is posing challenges for developers in the short term, it is part of a longer-term shift towards market-driven pricing for renewables, which has already made them cheaper than coal.  

The change led to a rush of new project installations ahead of the June 2025 cut-off date, so that they could fall under the old fixed-price regime.

New solar additions totalled 45GW in April 2025 and 93GW in May 2025, before falling to 14GW in June 2025, according to Carbon Brief analysis of government data.

Additions also spiked in December, in both 2024 and 2025, as developers raced to meet completion deadlines including those under the 14th five-year plan.   

Some reports have attributed the precipitous drop this year to falling demand for solar in China.

But this is a “major oversimplification”, David Fishman, principal at energy consultancy the Lantau Group, wrote on LinkedIn.

The real challenge, he said, is that “developers and banks [are] still figuring out how to finance and build projects without policy-backed revenue guarantees”.

Yang Biqing, energy analyst for Asia at thinktank Ember, agrees, telling Carbon Brief that the new CfD-style system has created “greater uncertainty” for developers, compounded by fierce competition and a growing push for “consolidation” in the industry.

The government set a target for 200GW of new solar and wind capacity in 2026. 

Fishman tells Carbon Brief that this will be “difficult” for the government to achieve, though not impossible. Current levels of solar additions – reaching perhaps 120GW for the year – plus an “ambitious” 80GW of new wind power, could help China to hit the target, he says.

Others are more bullish. The China Photovoltaic Industry Association forecasts 180-240GW of new solar in 2026.

But few believe additions will match the breakneck pace of 2025. 

“China’s solar industry is no longer a story of capacity expansion”, says Yang, with officials now “increasingly” focused on integrating current generation into the grid. 

Soaring exports

Meanwhile, China’s solar exports are still going strong.

China exported almost 1.2m tonnes of solar cells in April 2026, according to Reuters. Although down from a record high in March, it represented a 60% rise year-on-year, added the newswire.

This signals solar’s attractiveness globally in the face of rising energy prices caused by the Iran-US conflict, analysts have said. 

High demand for panels has been reported across several continents, including Europe, Asia and Africa. 

For example, in the Philippines, the conflict is “driving” solar uptake, one analyst told the Associated Press, adding:

“People want solar and people want solar now.”

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