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I. Climate Science

Investors Need to Look Carefully at Stranded Asset Risks

Carbon Tracker Initiative - 21 hours 27 min ago

This article was first published by Brink News, with thanks to Thomas Carver.

 

The shift away from a carbon-based economy risks stranding a large number of assets, particularly in sectors with high financial market exposure, such as oil and gas. 

The nonprofit financial think tank Carbon Tracker Initiative is tracking the assets most likely to be impacted. In the second of two articles, Mark Campanale, Founder and Director of Carbon Tracker explains that many companies are not reflecting these risks properly in financial statements. Read part one here.

CAMPANALE: Oil and gas reserves are not balance sheet items for fossil fuel companies. But under SEC rules, a reserve is only a reserve if it’s extractable at the current market price. So for example, when oil prices fell in 2020, you had a lot of de-booking.

For the balance sheet, the question is whether assets are impaired. In other words, whether they are likely to generate revenues sufficient to cover the capital invested. Here, companies look to not just current prices, but what they reasonably expect the prices to be in the future.  Even here, we’ve seen companies like BP write down asset values because they expect prices to be lower.

The Retirement Costs of Oil Wells

When you write down assets under U.S. GAAP, that’s forever, but in Europe, you can impair them when you see prices going down, and then write them up if your oil price expectation goes up. Then, there are the retirement costs of retiring oil and gas wells. They present the costs of retirement on the balance sheet on a risk-adjusted discounted basis.

There’s going to be an awful lot of oil refinery capacity the world doesn’t need in a 1.5 degrees world, that’s going to have to be written down. We’re not seeing the discussion we’d expect to see by companies as an audit risk item.

Many of the companies are pushing out retirement of wells to 50 or 70 years. Because of that, the costs seem really small at first glance. But what happens if they have to retire those assets, like offshore oil rigs, early? Those costs will be incurred much earlier and be much larger than the discounted numbers we see today.

There’s going to be an awful lot of oil refinery capacity the world doesn’t need in a 1.5 degrees world, that’s going to have to be written down. We’re not seeing the discussion we’d expect to see by companies as an audit risk item.

The Cost of Cleanup

In the U.S., companies are saying it’s going to cost $10,000 for each well — these nodding donkeys — to be closed and cleaned up. But actually, the real market cost of each well could be as much as $300,000 — more if there’s contamination to clean up. So what the companies are doing, and this is well written up in places like Colorado and elsewhere, is they’re moving their abandoned assets into defunct companies, which they then allow to go bust. And the state, the taxpayers, will pick up the decommissioning costs.

We think that companies should place a bond on the real cost of the cleanup and retirement of the wells. For each well, they should be putting a couple hundred thousand dollars or up to $300,000. But if they do that, it makes the whole company uneconomic, because if you have to make a provision for the cleanup costs, these projects wouldn’t be viable.

They certainly wouldn’t be generating the return on capital, which they are now, if you had to fully incorporate their cleanup costs. So, there are costs that the market knows about, regulators know about, the companies know about, investors know about, except they’re not transparently on the balance sheet of companies because there’s no legal requirement today for companies to actually price the full cost of cleanup on their balance sheets.

The Rest of the Value Chain Is Also Exposed

BRINK: What about the rest of the value chain of oil and gas companies? Is there risk to others in the value chain?

CAMPANALE: In Carbon Tracker’s analysis, we did a report where we calculate there’s around $30 trillion of fixed assets in the fossil fuel system. Pipeline, refineries, oil rigs, offshore engineering facilities. You’ve got LNG tankers. You’ve got coal mines. You’ve got railroads that carry coal. You’ve got the port that takes the coal out on ships to China.

We’re going to have to lose at least half of that in the next decade. Around a quarter of equity markets are linked to the fossil fuel system. So cement, steel, aviation, shipping, obviously transportation and power, and about half of the corporate bond market. Look at all the bonds linked to funding fracking in the U.S., these high yield junk bonds. All of that essentially gets turned over in the next decade, in the low-carbon scenario.

Regulatory Risk Is Looming

If we get extreme weather events at 1.5 [degrees warmer], the policymakers could turn around and say, “Right, everything closes. Nobody drives a car today. Coal-fired power stations are off. Oil production stops.”

It could be that governments suddenly reach a holy-moly moment, and you’ll get a rapid intervention, not too dissimilar to us coming off of Russian gas. Use of gas in some European countries, because of Russia, is down 20% this last year. And you could see something like what happened in the crisis of ’07, ’08, when the risk ratings were all wrong. But when it comes to the fossil fuel system, the write-downs would be four or five times bigger than the size of the financial crisis of ’07, ’08.

What we’re asking investment managers to do and pension fund trustees to do is to stress test their assumptions and their climate scenarios: What happens to asset valuations if fossil fuel use drops by half? Can you model this? Does the share price of Exxon go up, or does it go down? If half of gas and all coal-fired power goes, stress test the downside risks to, say a company like Glencore, which is hugely dependent on coal revenues as part of its profits.

That’s the rational thing to do. But unfortunately, talking to a lot of fund managers and pension fund trustees, they tend not to be doing those kinds of valuation stress tests.

How Will This Risk Play Out?

BRINK: So how do you think this is likely to play out in the next couple of years?

CAMPANALE: Well, the energy transition is happening rapidly. Clean technologies are on S-curves of rapid, exponential growth, displacing fossil fuel demand. The two things to look for, and we’ve seen it in coal, is firstly when demand peaks for a core fossil fuel product. The key one is obviously oil and gas because that’s where the most capital is tied up.

When you see millions of barrels of oil demand destruction a day, then you’ll see a very strong negative sentiment in the investment community toward oil and gas. If you remember what happened the year before last, oil prices entered into a period of being in the low twenties, and actually, at one point reached a negative value briefly, because there was a mismatch.

And when oil prices get down that low, the return on capital is killed. If you’re producing at 20 and selling at 20, the return on capital is zero. And that is the biggest threat to the industry — falling demand leads to soft prices, which in turn reduces margins significantly.

When that happens, the market will punish you by de-rating you. But at this point, with electrification happening all the way through the energy and transportation systems, it will be permanent and structural, not cyclical and temporary.

The post Investors Need to Look Carefully at Stranded Asset Risks appeared first on Carbon Tracker Initiative.

Categories: I. Climate Science

Skeptical Science New Research for Week #4 2023

Skeptical Science - Thu, 01/26/2023 - 13:12
Open access notables

Some of our more esoteric discussions with geophysics rejectionists (aka "climate science deniers") involve warming of the upper troposphere.  Resolving the 21st century temperature trends of the upper troposphere–lower stratosphere with satellite observations by Ladstädter, Steiner & Gleisner via Nature Scientific Reports brings in new orbital instrumentation and makes some important progress in quantifying events in this region of our atmosphere. The paper concludes:

"Our results document a large warming of the tropical upper troposphere, and indications for structural changes in the global circulation patterns. These findings, supported by recent research, reveal an accelerated change of the global climate in the first decades of the 21st century."

Meanwhile, down on Earth where our feet are made of clay, a lot of explaining to do: Paradoxes of Norway’s energy transition: controversies and justice, Korsnes et al. in Climate Policy.

There's quite a bit of heat around  carbon capture, and storage. Opinions fall on a spectrum ranging from "vital" through "moral hazard" and all the way to "pure greenwashing." Is carbon removal delaying emission reductions? by Carton et al. is billed as an advanced review and the authors deliver. Focusing on "moral hazard" but accounting for all colors of the matter at hand, the authors point out and demonstrate that worries over moral hazards of carbon removal can't be placed in a framework of solid evidence. The authors go on to identify specific means of better understanding of the problem, starting with an observation often seen in reviews: "we can't even agree on terminology and definitions." 

Science and scientific publishing move at a stately pace, so it's not a surprise and even quite approrpriate to see this fulsome memorial published in 2023: A Tribute to Paul Crutzen (1933–2021): The Pioneering Atmospheric Chemist Who Provided New Insight into the Concept of Climate Change. Crutzen's Nobel laureate was to do with ozone but his footprints were all over our atmosphere, and climate science, as comprehensively narrated in this Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society remembrance.

In this week's government/NGO section, The State of Carbon Dioxide Removal via the University of Oxford starts with the premise "scaling up carbon dioxide removal (CDR) is an urgent priority, as are efforts to rapidly reduce emissions if the temperature goal of the Paris Agreement is to be met" and goes on to ask "how are we doing with that?" Not perfectly. Also in gov/NGO this week is an important concept delivered by the White House: our natural environment needs to be woven into economic reporting and economic policy. Obvious to many of us but not yet part of our economic formality, hence word on this from these quarters is a big deal. See National Strategy to Develop Statistics for Environmental-Economic Decisions

Wet-bulb temperatures are rising, with emerging potentially lethal instances already being recorded. Shouro Dasgupta and Elizabeth Robinson connect this with impacts on people working in the outdoors and other areas where workers are found but temperature control is not.  The labour force in a changing climate: Research and policy needs published in PLOS Climate summarizes what we know now and proceeds to identify major systemic gaps in our understanding of a situation that if unhandled will undoubtedly cost lives and misery.

A paper by Konrad, Bernt & Hofmann and just published in The International Journal of Life Cycle Assessment is oriented to a specific use case, vehicle rescue. But mobile recharging is going to find broader applications and so what seems a rather "niche" situation actually is not.   Life cycle assessment of MHP (Mobile Hydrogen Powersupply), an off-grid system to charge battery electric vehiclesIn our decarbonization section below which we offer as a weekly noncomprehensive ray of hope. 

195 articles in 66 journals by 1,288 contributing authors

Physical science of climate change, effects

A Dynamics of Surface Temperature Forced by Solar Radiation
Jing & Wang, Geophysical Research Letters, 10.1029/2022gl101222

Combined oceanic and atmospheric forcing of the 2013/14 marine heatwave in the northeast Pacific
Chen et al., npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41612-023-00327-0

Revisiting causality using stochastics on atmospheric temperature and CO2 concentration
Åsbrink, Proceedings of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, 10.1098/rspa.2022.0529

Observations of climate change, effects

Changes in Seasonal Large-Scale Extreme Precipitation in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast United States, 1979–2019
Henny et al., Journal of Climate, 10.1175/jcli-d-22-0088.1

Colder eastern equatorial Pacific and stronger Walker circulation in the early 21st century: Separating the forced response to global warming from natural variability
Heede & Fedorov, Geophysical Research Letters, 10.1029/2022gl101020

Combined oceanic and atmospheric forcing of the 2013/14 marine heatwave in the northeast Pacific
Chen et al., npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41612-023-00327-0

Energetic overturning flows, dynamic interocean exchanges, and ocean warming observed in the South Atlantic
Chidichimo et al., Communications Earth & Environment, Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-022-00644-x

Hydrological Drought Generation Processes and Severity Are Changing in the Alps
Brunner et al., Geophysical Research Letters, 10.1029/2022gl101776

Impact of changing Arctic sea ice extent, sea ice age, and snow depth on sea salt aerosol from blowing snow and the open ocean for 1980-2017
Confer et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 10.1029/2022jd037667

Monitoring sudden stratospheric warmings under climate change since 1980 based on reanalysis data verified by radio occultation
Li et al., Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Open Access pdf 10.5194/acp-23-1259-2023

Record-breaking rainfall accumulations in eastern China produced by Typhoon In-fa (2021)
Huang et al., Atmospheric Science Letters, Open Access 10.1002/asl.1153

Resolving the 21st century temperature trends of the upper troposphere–lower stratosphere with satellite observations
Ladstädter et al., Scientific Reports, Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41598-023-28222-x

Spatiotemporal characteristics of dry-wet abrupt alternation events in China during 1960–2018
Zhao et al., International Journal of Climatology, 10.1002/joc.7850

The Changing Characteristics of Rainfall over the Brahmaputra Basin during 1998–2018
Gogoi et al., Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 10.1002/qj.4427

Modeling, simulation & projection of climate change, effects

Asia faces a growing threat from intraseasonal compound weather whiplash
FANG & LU, Earth's Future, 10.1029/2022ef003111

Causes of the Extreme Drought in Late Summer–Autumn 2019 in Eastern China and Its Future Risk
Chen et al., Journal of Climate, 10.1175/jcli-d-22-0305.1

Climate-driven deterioration of future ozone pollution in Asia predicted by machine learning with multi-source data
Li et al., Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Open Access pdf 10.5194/acp-23-1131-2023

Downscaling and uncertainty analysis of future concurrent long-duration dry and hot events in China
Yang & Tang, Climatic Change, 10.1007/s10584-023-03481-9

Evaluation of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 model-simulated extreme precipitation over Indonesia
Kurniadi et al., International Journal of Climatology, 10.1002/joc.7744

Evaluation of the performance of a dynamic wave climate ensemble simulated using with EURO-CORDEX winds in the Black Sea and Sea of Azov
Çakmak et al., International Journal of Climatology, 10.1002/joc.7711

Fluvial flood losses in the contiguous United States under climate change
Rashid et al., Earth's Future, 10.1029/2022ef003328

Global greenhouse gases emissions effect on extreme events under an uncertain future: A case study in Western Cape, South Africa
He & Ding, PLOS Climate, Open Access pdf 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000107

Greenhouse warming and internal variability increase extreme and central Pacific El Niño frequency since 1980
Gan et al., Nature Communications, Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-023-36053-7

Intermodel uncertainty in response of the Pacific Walker circulation to global warming
Han & Zheng Zheng, Climate Dynamics, Open Access 10.1007/s00382-023-06685-y

Mechanisms of tropical cyclone response under climate change in the community earth system model
van Westen et al., Climate Dynamics, Open Access pdf 10.1007/s00382-023-06680-3

Projected changes in the seasonal cycle of Madden-Julian oscillation precipitation and wind amplitude
Bui & Hsu, Geophysical Research Letters, 10.1029/2022gl101773

Sharpening of cold-season storms over the western United States
Chen et al., Nature Climate Change, 10.1038/s41558-022-01578-0

The impacts of climate change on regional temperature characteristics and climate zones
Li et al., Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 10.1007/s00704-023-04368-6

Advancement of climate & climate effects modeling, simulation & projection

Assessment of total and extreme precipitation over central Asia via statistical downscaling: added value and multi-model ensemble projection
Li-Jun et al., Advances in Climate Change Research, Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2023.01.004

Changes in the ground surface temperature in permafrost regions along the Qinghai–Tibet engineering corridor from 1900 to 2014: A modified assessment of CMIP6
XING et al., Advances in Climate Change Research, Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2023.01.007

Future Arctic climate change in CMIP6 strikingly intensified by NEMO-family climate models
Pan et al., Geophysical Research Letters, 10.1029/2022gl102077

Internal variability plays a dominant role in global climate projections of temperature and precipitation extremes
Blanusa et al., Climate Dynamics, 10.1007/s00382-023-06664-3

Limited Skill of Projected Land Precipitation by IPCC Models During 2002−2020
Hu et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 10.1029/2022jd037851

Sensitivity of Heavy Convective Precipitation Simulations to Changes in Land-atmosphere Exchange Processes over China
Zhang et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 10.1029/2022jd037125

Toward high-resolution global atmospheric inverse modelling using graphics accelerators
Chevallier et al., Geophysical Research Letters, 10.1029/2022gl102135

What added value of CNRM-AROME convection-permitting regional climate model compared to CNRM-ALADIN regional climate model for urban climate studies ? Evaluation over Paris area (France)
Lemonsu et al., Climate Dynamics, Open Access 10.1007/s00382-022-06647-w

Cryosphere & climate change

Evaluating the Retreat, Arrest, and Regrowth of Crane Glacier against Marine Ice Cliff Process Models
Needell & Holschuh, Geophysical Research Letters, 10.1029/2022gl102400

Observed and predicted trends in Icelandic snow conditions for the period 1930–2100
Eythorsson et al., [journal not provided], Open Access pdf 10.5194/egusphere-2022-590

Physical and biogeochemical properties of rotten East Antarctic summer sea ice
Corkill et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, 10.1029/2022jc018875

Timescales of outlet-glacier flow with negligible basal friction: theory, observations and modeling
Feldmann & Levermann Levermann Levermann, The Cryosphere, Open Access pdf 10.5194/tc-17-327-2023

Wintertime supraglacial lake drainage cascade triggers large-scale ice flow response in Greenland
Maier et al., Geophysical Research Letters, 10.1029/2022gl102251

Sea level & climate change

Antarctic contribution to future sea level from ice shelf basal melt as constrained by ice discharge observations
van der Linden et al., The Cryosphere, Open Access pdf 10.5194/tc-17-79-2023

Evaluating Knowledge Gaps in Sea-level Rise Assessments from the United States
Garner et al., Earth's Future, Open Access 10.1029/2022ef003187

Indian Ocean dynamic sea level, its variability and projections in CMIP6 models
Chatterjee & K Chatterjee, [journal not provided], Open Access pdf 10.21203/rs.3.rs-1192038/v1

Paleoclimate

Atmospheric River Variability Over the Last Millennium Driven by Annular Modes
Baek et al., AGU Advances, 10.1029/2022av000834

Holocene climate and oceanography of the coastal Western United States and California Current System
Palmer et al., Climate of the Past, Open Access pdf 10.5194/cp-19-199-2023

Modeled storm surge changes in a warmer world: the Last Interglacial
Scussolini et al., Climate of the Past, Open Access pdf 10.5194/cp-19-141-2023

North Atlantic surface ocean warming and salinization in response to middle Eocene greenhouse warming
van der Ploeg et al., Science Advances, 10.1126/sciadv.abq0110

The Impact of Different Atmospheric CO2 Concentrations on Large Scale Miocene Temperature Signatures
Hossain et al., Paleoceanography and Paleoclimatology, 10.1029/2022pa004438

Uncertainty in reconstructing paleo-elevation of the Antarctic Ice Sheet from temperature-sensitive ice core records
Badgeley et al., Geophysical Research Letters, 10.1029/2022gl100334

Biology & climate change, related geochemistry

Adult spawners: a critical period for subarctic Chinook salmon in a changing climate
Howard & von Biela, Global Change Biology, 10.1111/gcb.16610

Altered activities of extracellular soil enzymes by the interacting global environmental changes
Zuccarini et al., Global Change Biology, 10.1111/gcb.16604

Arctic Ocean annual high in pCO2 could shift from winter to summer
Orr et al., Nature, Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41586-022-05205-y

Atmospheric and Surface Processes, and Feedback Mechanisms Determining Arctic Amplification: A Review of First Results and Prospects of the (AC)3 Project
Wendisch et al., Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Open Access pdf 10.1175/bams-d-21-0218.1

Balancing disturbance risk and ecosystem service provisioning in Swiss mountain forests: an increasing challenge under climate change
Thrippleton et al., Regional Environmental Change, Open Access pdf 10.1007/s10113-022-02015-w

Consistent responses to moisture stress despite diverse growth forms within mountain fynbos communities
Skelton et al., Oecologia, Open Access pdf 10.1007/s00442-023-05326-9

Directional fabrication and dissolution of larval and juvenile oyster shells under ocean acidification
Chandra Rajan et al., Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, 10.1098/rspb.2022.1216

Divergent effects of climate change on the egg-laying opportunity of species in cold and warm regions
Ma et al., Conservation Biology, 10.1111/cobi.14056

Dynamics of global dryland vegetation were more sensitive to soil moisture: Evidence from multiple vegetation indices
Liu et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 10.1016/j.agrformet.2023.109327

Elevated temperature and CO2 strongly affect the growth strategies of soil bacteria
Ruan et al., Nature Communications, Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-023-36086-y

Human fingerprint on structural density of forests globally
Li et al., Nature Sustainability, 10.1038/s41893-022-01020-5

Hyposensitive canopy conductance renders ecosystems vulnerable to meteorological droughts
Xu et al., Global Change Biology, 10.1111/gcb.16607

Impacts of future climate change and atmospheric CO2 concentration on ecosystem water retention service
Yin et al., Earth's Future, 10.1029/2021ef002138

Marine heatwaves and upwelling shape stress responses in a keystone predator
Rühmkorff et al., Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, Open Access 10.1098/rspb.2022.2262

Mitigating the effects of climate change on the nests of sea turtles with artificial irrigation
Gatto et al., Conservation Biology, 10.1111/cobi.14044

Non-equilibrium early-warning signals for critical transitions in ecological systems
Xu et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 10.1073/pnas.2218663120

Plant community predictions support the potential for big sagebrush range expansion adjacent to the leading edge
Martyn et al., Regional Environmental Change, 10.1007/s10113-022-01999-9

Population-specific vulnerability to ocean change in a multistressor environment
Donham et al., Science Advances, Open Access pdf 10.1126/sciadv.ade2365

Socioeconomic factors predict population changes of large carnivores better than climate change or habitat loss
Matovi?, Good Health and Well, Open Access 10.1007/978-3-319-71063-1_57-1

Spatiotemporal variation in vegetation phenology and its response to climate change in marshes of Sanjiang Plain, China
Liu et al., Ecology and Evolution, Open Access 10.1002/ece3.9755

Susceptibility of vegetation low-growth to climate extremes on Tibetan Plateau
Zhang et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 10.1016/j.agrformet.2023.109323

The climatic drivers of long-term population changes in rainforest montane birds
de la Fuente et al., Global Change Biology, 10.1111/gcb.16608

The ecological consequences of the timing of extreme climate events
Cinto Mejía & Wetzel, Ecology and Evolution, Open Access 10.1002/ece3.9661

The Importance of Subsurface Productivity in the Pacific Arctic Gateway as Revealed by High-resolution Biogeochemical Surveys
Juranek et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, Open Access 10.1029/2022jc019292

Widespread spring phenology effects on drought recovery of Northern Hemisphere ecosystems
Li et al., Nature Climate Change, Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41558-022-01584-2

GHG sources & sinks, flux, related geochemistry

Aerosols, Clusters, Greenhouse Gases, Trace Gases and Boundary-Layer Dynamics: on Feedbacks and Interactions
Kulmala et al., Boundary, 10.1007/s10546-022-00769-8

Arctic tropospheric ozone: assessment of current knowledge and model performance
Whaley et al., [journal not provided], Open Access pdf 10.5194/acp-2022-319

Assessing urban heat island intensity and emissions with compressed natural gas in non-commercial vehicles
Rizvi et al., Urban Climate, 10.1016/j.uclim.2023.101421

Basin-scale CO2 emissions from the East River in South China: Importance of small rivers, human impacts and monsoons
Liu et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences, 10.1029/2022jg007291

CO2 flux inversion with a regional joint data assimilation system based on CMAQ, EnKS, and surface observations
Peng et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 10.1029/2022jd037154

Dynamics of greenhouse gases (CH4 and CO2) in meromictic Lake Burgsee, Germany
Fuchs et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences, Open Access 10.1029/2021jg006661

Early Wintertime CO2 Uptake in the Western Arctic Ocean
Murata et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, 10.1029/2021jc018037

Effect of Plankton Composition Shifts in the North Atlantic on Atmospheric pCO2
Boot et al., Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Open Access 10.1002/essoar.10511776.1

Effects of hypoxia on coupled carbon and iron cycling differ between weekly and multiannual timescales in two freshwater reservoirs
Lewis et al., Biogeosciences, Open Access 10.1002/essoar.10511936.1

Electron Accepting Capacities of a Wide Variety of Peat Materials from Around the Globe Similarly Explain CO2 and CH4 Formation
Guth et al., Global Biogeochemical Cycles, 10.1029/2022gb007459

Enhanced transport of dissolved methane from the Chukchi Sea to the central Arctic
Ye et al., Global Biogeochemical Cycles, 10.1029/2022gb007368

Factors controlling the sea surface partial pressure of carbon dioxide in upwelling regions: A case study of the southern East China Sea before and after Typhoon Maria
Kao et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, 10.1029/2022jc019195

Global climate change increases terrestrial soil CH4 emissions
Guo et al., Global Biogeochemical Cycles, 10.1029/2021gb007255

Global net biome CO2 exchange predicted comparably well using parameter–environment relationships and plant functional types
Famiglietti et al., Global Change Biology, Open Access pdf 10.1111/gcb.16574

Global Self-similar Scaling of Terrestrial Carbon with Aridity
Yin & Porporato, Geophysical Research Letters, Open Access pdf 10.1029/2022gl101040

Magnitude and Origin of CO2 evasion from high-latitude lakes
Verheijen et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences, Open Access pdf 10.1029/2021jg006768

Main Manuscript for The climate control of soil organic carbon dynamics inferred from speleothem radiocarbon ages
Xue et al., Geophysical Research Letters, 10.1029/2022gl101875

Nutrient release and flux dynamics of CO2, CH4, and N2O in a coastal peatland driven by actively induced rewetting with brackish water from the Baltic Sea
Pönisch et al., Biogeosciences, Open Access pdf 10.5194/bg-20-295-2023

Patterns and controlling factors of soil carbon sequestration in nitrogen-limited and -rich forests in China—a meta-analysis
Ngaba et al., PeerJ, Open Access 10.7717/peerj.14694

Presence of Access Roads Results in Reduced Growing Season Carbon Uptake in Adjacent Boreal Peatlands
Saraswati et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences, 10.1029/2022jg007206

Reconciling the bottom-up and top-down estimates of the methane chemical sink using multiple observations
Zhao et al., [journal not provided], Open Access pdf 10.5194/acp-2022-556

Riverine impact on future projections of marine primary production and carbon uptake
Gao et al., [journal not provided], Open Access pdf 10.5194/bg-2021-293

Spatial and temporal variability of methane emissions and environmental conditions in a hyper-eutrophic fishpond
Matouš? et al., SSRN Electronic Journal, Open Access 10.2139/ssrn.4133429

Strong nonlinearity of land climate-carbon cycle feedback under a high CO2 growth scenario
Zhang et al., Earth's Future, 10.1029/2021ef002499

Trends and variability in the ocean carbon sink
Gruber et al., Nature Reviews Earth & Environment, 10.1038/s43017-022-00381-x

Widespread Frequent Methane Emissions from the Oil and Gas Industry in the Permian Basin
Veefkind et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 10.1029/2022jd037479

CO2 capture, sequestration science & engineering

Can fossil energy make a soft landing?— the carbon-neutral pathway in China accompanying CCS
Hu & Wu Wu Wu, Energy Policy, 10.1016/j.enpol.2023.113440

CO2–Brine–Rock interaction and sequestration capacity in carbonate reservoirs of the Tahe Oilfield, Xinjiang, China
Tan et al., Greenhouse Gases: Science and Technology, 10.1002/ghg.2178

Environmental microbiome engineering for the mitigation of climate change
Silverstein et al., Global Change Biology, 10.1111/gcb.16609

Decarbonization

A novel method for forecasting renewable energy consumption structure based on compositional data: evidence from China, the USA, and Canada
Xu et al., Environment, Development and Sustainability, 10.1007/s10668-023-02935-5

An updated review on integration of solar photovoltaic modules and heat pumps towards decarbonization of buildings
Alhuyi Nazari et al., Energy for Sustainable Development, 10.1016/j.esd.2022.12.018

Climate impact comparison of electric and gas-powered end-user appliances
Dietrich et al., Earth's Future, Open Access 10.1029/2022ef002877

Directional hydrophone clusters reveal evasive responses of small cetaceans to disturbance during construction at offshore windfarms
Graham et al., Biology Letters, 10.1098/rsbl.2022.0101

E-waste recycled materials as efficient catalysts for renewable energy technologies and better environmental sustainability
Seif et al., Environment, Development and Sustainability, Open Access pdf 10.1007/s10668-023-02925-7

In Situ Encapsulation of Phase-Change Thermal-Storage Material using 3D Polymer-Aided Cross-Linked Porous Carbon
Xiao et al., Advanced Energy and Sustainability Research, Open Access 10.1002/aesr.202200164

Life cycle assessment of MHP (Mobile Hydrogen Powersupply), an off-grid system to charge battery electric vehicles
Konrad et al., The International Journal of Life Cycle Assessment, Open Access pdf 10.1007/s11367-022-02122-0

Local and global experience curves for lumpy and granular energy technologies
Choi & Kim Kim, Energy Policy, 10.1016/j.enpol.2023.113426

On injustices raised by the implementation of low-carbon technologies
Brandstedt, PLOS Climate, Open Access pdf 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000128

Solutions to achieve carbon-neutral mixtures for the U.S. pavement network
AzariJafari et al., The International Journal of Life Cycle Assessment, 10.1007/s11367-022-02121-1

Synergistic Defect Passivation by the Treatment of Ionic Liquids for Efficient and Stable Perovskite Solar Cells
Zhang et al., Advanced Energy and Sustainability Research, Open Access 10.1002/aesr.202200173

Techno-economic analysis of PV systems installed by using innovative strategies for smart sustainable agriculture farms
Aziz et al., Environment, Development and Sustainability, Open Access pdf 10.1007/s10668-023-02919-5

Geoengineering climate

Climate response to off-equatorial stratospheric sulfur injections in three Earth system models – Part 2: Stratospheric and free-tropospheric response
Bednarz et al., Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Open Access pdf 10.5194/acp-2022-372

Impact of Stratospheric Aerosol Injection on the East Asian Winter Monsoon
Liu et al., Geophysical Research Letters, 10.1029/2022gl102109

The Radiative and Cloud Responses to Sea Salt Aerosol Engineering in GFDL Models
Mahfouz et al., Geophysical Research Letters, 10.1029/2022gl102340

Black carbon

Evaluating BC aging processes in the Community Atmosphere Model Version 6 (CAM6)
Shen et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 10.1029/2022jd037427

Aerosols

Aerosol–precipitation elevation dependence over the central Himalayas using cloud-resolving WRF-Chem numerical modeling
Adhikari & Mejia Mejia Mejia, Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Open Access pdf 10.5194/acp-23-1019-2023

Can biomass burning aerosol induced surface cooling be amplified through sea surface temperature-cloud feedback over the Southeast Atlantic?
Lu & Liu, Geophysical Research Letters, 10.1029/2022gl101377

Distinct regional meteorological influences on low-cloud albedo susceptibility over global marine stratocumulus regions
Zhang & Feingold Feingold Feingold Feingold Feingold, [journal not provided], Open Access 10.1002/essoar.10511682.1

Importance of Atmospheric Transport on Methanesulfonic Acid (MSA) Concentrations in the Arctic Ocean during Summer under Global Warming
Jiang et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 10.1029/2022jd037271

Reconstructing volcanic radiative forcing since 1990, using a comprehensive emission inventory and spatially resolved sulfur injections from satellite data in a chemistry-climate model
Schallock et al., Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Open Access pdf 10.5194/acp-23-1169-2023

Uncertainty in simulating twentieth century West African precipitation trends: The role of anthropogenic aerosol emissions
Monerie et al., [journal not provided], Open Access 10.1002/essoar.10511809.1

Climate change communications & cognition

A scoping review of the green parenthood effect on environmental and climate engagement
Shrum et al., WIREs Climate Change, Open Access 10.1002/wcc.818

Artificial intelligence for environmental security: national, international, human and ecological perspectives
Francisco, Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability, Open Access 10.1016/j.cosust.2022.101250

Ideology, scientific literacy, and climate change: the case of Spain
Arroyo-Barrigüete et al., Journal of Environmental Studies and Sciences, 10.1007/s13412-023-00814-z

Toward Reduction of Detrimental Effects of Hurricanes using a Social Media Data Analytic Approach: How Climate Change is perceived?
Karimiziarani et al., Climate Risk Management, Open Access 10.1016/j.crm.2023.100480

Translated Emission Pathways (TEPs): Long-Term Simulations of COVID-19 CO2 Emissions and Thermosteric Sea Level Rise Projections
Gonzalez & Lin, Earth's Future, Open Access 10.1029/2021ef002453

Agronomy, animal husbundry, food production & climate change

Agricultural expansion and its impacts on climate change: evidence from Iran
Barati et al., Environment, Development and Sustainability, 10.1007/s10668-023-02926-6

Assessing temperature-based adaptation limits to climate change of temperate perennial fruit crops
Meza et al., Global Change Biology, 10.1111/gcb.16601

Can un-leveed agricultural fields in deltas keep pace with sea-level rise?
Glover et al., Geophysical Research Letters, 10.1029/2022gl101733

Climate change and the Western Himalayan community: Exploring the local perspective through food choices
Das & Mishra, Ambio, Open Access pdf 10.1007/s13280-022-01810-3

Climate variability and simultaneous breadbasket yield shocks as observed in long-term yield records
Anderson et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 10.1016/j.agrformet.2023.109321

Delineating and characterizing changes in heat wave events across the United States climate regions
Wanyama et al., Climatic Change, Open Access 10.1007/s10584-022-03476-y

Farmers’ social networks and regional spillover effects in agricultural climate change mitigation
Kreft et al., Climatic Change, 10.1007/s10584-023-03484-6

Population-specific vulnerability to ocean change in a multistressor environment
Donham et al., Science Advances, Open Access pdf 10.1126/sciadv.ade2365

Uncertain future of sustainable fisheries environment in eastern boundary upwelling zones under climate change
Chang et al., Communications Earth & Environment, 10.1038/s43247-023-00681-0

Variability and trend analysis of temperatures, rainfall, and characteristics of crop-growing season in the eastern zone of Tigray region, northern Ethiopia
Berhe et al., Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 10.1007/s00704-023-04364-w

Warming and hypoxia threatens a valuable scallop fishery; a warning for commercial bivalve ventures in climate change hotspots
Scanes & Byrne, Global Change Biology, 10.1111/gcb.16606

Hydrology, hydrometeorology & climate change

Can southern Australian rainfall decline be explained? A review of possible drivers
McKay et al., WIREs Climate Change, Open Access 10.1002/wcc.820

Changes in Seasonal Large-Scale Extreme Precipitation in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast United States, 1979–2019
Henny et al., Journal of Climate, 10.1175/jcli-d-22-0088.1

Hydrological Drought Generation Processes and Severity Are Changing in the Alps
Brunner et al., Geophysical Research Letters, 10.1029/2022gl101776

Investigation of lake shrinkage attributed to climate change over the past 33 years in Inner Mongolia, China
Zhang et al., Climatic Change, 10.1007/s10584-023-03487-3

Midwinter dry spells amplify post-fire snowpack decline
Hatchett et al., Geophysical Research Letters, Open Access 10.1029/2022gl101235

Nexus of dams, reservoirs, climate, and the environment: a systematic perspective
Zhang & Shang, International Journal of Environmental Science and Technology, 10.1007/s13762-023-04765-4

Variability and long-term change in Australian monsoon rainfall: A review
Heidemann et al., WIREs Climate Change, Open Access 10.1002/wcc.823

Widespread increasing ecosystem water limitation during the past three decades in the Yellow River Basin, China
Zhao et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences, 10.1029/2022jg007140

Climate change economics

Mapping regional vulnerability in Europe’s energy transition: development and application of an indicator to assess declining employment in four carbon-intensive industries
McDowall et al., Climatic Change, Open Access pdf 10.1007/s10584-022-03478-w

The labour force in a changing climate: Research and policy needs
Dasgupta & Robinson, PLOS Climate, Open Access pdf 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000131

Climate change mitigation public policy research

Agricultural manufacturers’ carbon abatement oriented to government subsidy and sales efforts
Wang & Wang, Environment, Development and Sustainability, 10.1007/s10668-022-02886-3

Building sector emission reduction assessment from a developing European economy: A bottom-up modelling approach
Sar?ca et al., Energy Policy, 10.1016/j.enpol.2023.113429

China's carbon accounting system in the context of carbon neutrality: Current situation, challenges and suggestions
Hong-Shuo et al., Advances in Climate Change Research, Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2023.01.008

Exploring the participation willingness and potential carbon emission reduction of Chinese residential green electricity market
Lin & Qiao, Energy Policy, 10.1016/j.enpol.2023.113452

In the post-subsidy era: How to encourage mere consumers to become prosumers when subsidy reduced?
Liu et al., Energy Policy, 10.1016/j.enpol.2023.113451

Local and global experience curves for lumpy and granular energy technologies
Choi & Kim Kim, Energy Policy, 10.1016/j.enpol.2023.113426

Mapping regional vulnerability in Europe’s energy transition: development and application of an indicator to assess declining employment in four carbon-intensive industries
McDowall et al., Climatic Change, Open Access pdf 10.1007/s10584-022-03478-w

National models of climate governance among major emitters
Guy et al., Nature Climate Change, 10.1038/s41558-022-01589-x

Paradoxes of Norway’s energy transition: controversies and justice
Korsnes et al., Climate Policy, Open Access 10.1080/14693062.2023.2169238

Persistence of shocks on non-renewable and renewable energy consumption: evidence from 15 leading countries with Fourier unit root test
Kiran Baygin & Çil, Environment, Development and Sustainability, 10.1007/s10668-023-02944-4

Reinforcing nature-based solutions through tools providing social-ecological-technological integration
Wellmann et al., Ambio, Open Access pdf 10.1007/s13280-022-01801-4

Spatial correlation network structure characteristics of carbon emission efficiency and its influencing factors at city level in China
Sun et al., Environment, Development and Sustainability, 10.1007/s10668-023-02936-4

Time-varying causality nexus of (non)renewable electricity utilization, real output, and carbon emission among selected African states
Espoir et al., Environment, Development and Sustainability, Open Access pdf 10.1007/s10668-023-02934-6

Understanding equity–efficiency interaction in the distribution of global carbon budgets
Pan et al., Advances in Climate Change Research, Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2022.08.002

Unleashing the effect of energy efficiency, knowledge spillover, and globalization on environmental sustainability: an VECM analysis for policy empirics
Khurshid et al., Environment, Development and Sustainability, 10.1007/s10668-023-02949-z

Climate change adaptation & adaptation public policy research

Adaptation rationales and benefits: A foundation for understanding adaptation impact
Carr & Nalau, Climate Risk Management, Open Access 10.1016/j.crm.2023.100479

Climate processes and drivers in the Pacific and global warming: a review for informing Pacific planning agencies
Chand et al., Climatic Change, 10.1007/s10584-022-03467-z

Decision-making factor interactions influencing climate migration: A systems-based systematic review
Nabong et al., WIREs Climate Change, Open Access 10.1002/wcc.828

Diffusion and upscaling of municipal climate mitigation and adaptation strategies in Germany
Kern et al., Regional Environmental Change, Open Access pdf 10.1007/s10113-022-02020-z

Drivers of migration intentions in coastal Vietnam under increased flood risk from sea level rise
Duijndam et al., Climatic Change, Open Access pdf 10.1007/s10584-022-03479-9

Enhancing capacity building initiatives at sub-national level for supporting climate change adaptation
Mohan, Climate and Development, 10.1080/17565529.2022.2163845

Framework for multirisk climate scenarios across system receptors with application to the Metropolitan City of Venice
Sambo et al., Risk Analysis, 10.1111/risa.14097

Gender and adaptive capacity in climate change scholarship of developing countries: a systematic review of literature
Dev & Manalo, Climate and Development, Open Access 10.1080/17565529.2023.2166781

Identification of factors affecting public willingness to pay for heat mitigation and adaptation: Evidence from Guangzhou, China
Liu et al., Urban Climate, Open Access 10.1016/j.uclim.2022.101405

Institutionalizing urban climate governance in the global South? Evidence from Tehran urban management, Iran
Pazhuhan (Panahandeh Khah), Climate and Development, 10.1080/17565529.2022.2161298

Potential tipping points for climate change adaptation costs
Midgley et al., Climate and Development, 10.1080/17565529.2022.2151306

Power blackout: Citizens’ contribution to strengthen urban resilience
Knodt et al., Energy Policy, 10.1016/j.enpol.2023.113433

What influences the adaptive capacity of coastal critical infrastructure providers?
Huddleston et al., Urban Climate, 10.1016/j.uclim.2023.101416

Wildfire adaptation in the Russian Arctic: a systematic policy review
I.V et al., Climate Risk Management, Open Access 10.1016/j.crm.2023.100481

Climate change impacts on human health

Differences in interference processing and frontal brain function with climate trauma from California’s deadliest wildfire
Grennan et al., PLOS Climate, Open Access pdf 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000125

Impact of extreme temperatures on the performance evaluation of China's work-related injury insurance system
Zhang et al., Risk Analysis, 10.1111/risa.14095

Inequality of global thermal comfort conditions changes in a warmer world
Zhang et al., Earth's Future, 10.1029/2022ef003109

Climate change & geopolitics

Where to draw the line? Climate change-conflict-migration-terrorism causal relations and a contested politics of implication
Telford, Environmental Science & Policy, 10.1016/j.envsci.2023.01.001

Other

Large-Scale Drivers of Persistent Extreme Weather During Early Summer 2021 in Europe
Tuel et al., Geophysical Research Letters, 10.1029/2022gl099624

Perception spillover from fracking onto public perceptions of novel energy technologies
Westlake et al., Nature Energy, Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41560-022-01178-4

Informed opinion, nudges & major initiatives

A history of the 1.5°C target
Cointe & Guillemot, WIREs Climate Change, 10.1002/wcc.824

A Tribute to Paul Crutzen (1933–2021): The Pioneering Atmospheric Chemist Who Provided New Insight into the Concept of Climate Change
Fishman et al., Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Open Access pdf 10.1175/bams-d-21-0311.1

An Integrated Research Plan for the Tibetan Plateau Land–Air Coupled System and Its Impacts on the Global Climate
Wu et al., Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 10.1175/bams-d-21-0293.1

Climate reparations: Why the polluter pays principle is neither unfair nor unreasonable
Tan, WIREs Climate Change, 10.1002/wcc.827

Is carbon removal delaying emission reductions?
Carton et al., WIREs Climate Change, Open Access 10.1002/wcc.826

Sociologies of climate change are not enough. Putting the global biodiversity crisis on the sociological agenda
Lockie, Environmental Sociology, 10.1080/23251042.2023.2170310

The labour force in a changing climate: Research and policy needs
Dasgupta & Robinson, PLOS Climate, Open Access pdf 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000131

Articles/Reports from Agencies and Non-Governmental Organizations Addressing Aspects of Climate Change

The State of Carbon Dioxide Removal, Smith et al., University of Oxford

Scaling up carbon dioxide removal (CDR) is an urgent priority, as are efforts to rapidly reduce emissions if the temperature goal of the Paris Agreement is to be met. Scenarios for limiting warming to well below 2°C involve removing hundreds of billions of tonnes of carbon dioxide (CO2) from the atmosphere over the course of the century. Drawing together analysis across several key areas, the authors provide the first comprehensive global assessment of the current state of CDR. They found a gap between how much CDR countries are planning and what is needed in scenarios to meet the Paris temperature goal. The size of the “CDR gap” differs across scenarios, depending on how the global economy is transformed toward net-zero emissions. However, there are currently few plans by countries to scale CDR above current levels, exposing a substantial shortfall. CDR involves capturing CO2 from the atmosphere and storing it durably on land, in the ocean, in geological formations, or in products. Examples include reforestation, biochar, Bioenergy with Carbon Capture and Storage (BECCS), and Direct Air Carbon Capture and Storage (DACCS). For the first time, the authors compile an estimate of the total amount of CDR currently being deployed around the world.

Deny, Deceive, Delay Vol. 2: Exposing New Trends in Climate Mis- and Disinformation at COP27, Climate Action Against Disinformation

The authors seek to track, expose and counter anti-climate efforts since October 2022 to provide a roadmap for action in the year ahead. This work will drive CAAD’s ongoing work and advocacy goals, including engagement with big tech to craft a proportionate, systemic response to climate disinformation on platforms; public education and ‘pre-bunking efforts’ at the grassroots; and work with multilateral institutions like UNFCCC to formalize the response to disinformation as part of broader climate policy.

U.S. Offshore Wind Quarterly Market Report, Business Network for Offshore Wind

The last three months of 2022 (Q4) are notable for the first-ever federal offshore wind auction along the U.S. west coast and key port investments, yet the combination of supply chain bottlenecks, rising commodity prices, and the lack of coordinated transmission planning threatens to stall progress in 2023. The California lease auction marked the U.S.’s entry into the floating offshore wind market and an important opportunity to pioneer cutting-edge technology here at home. Domestic supply chain development was buttressed by significant growth in the American steel sector and major investments at U.S. ports in four key states — California, Connecticut, Massachusetts, and New York. The same inflationary conditions disrupting the European offshore wind industry finally reached U.S. shores, resulting in a spate of project delays. With a capable workforce, critical infrastructure components, and the potential to generate 9 GW of offshore wind that could power nearly 3 million homes, the Gulf region is primed for an offshore wind boom.

Climate-fueled Violence and Displacement in the Lake Chad Basin: Focus on Chad and Cameroon, Alexandra Lamarche, Refugees International

The dangerous link between climate change and conflict is clear in countries across the Lake Chad Basin, including Cameroon, Chad, Niger, and Nigeria. For more than a decade, attacks by Boko Haram and Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP) have destabilized the region. The Lake Chad Basin crisis is often viewed through the lens of regional security. However, insufficient attention is paid to how climate change has fueled insecurity and the forced displacement of civilian populations. Together, these factors have displaced 3 million people and left 11 million people in need of humanitarian assistance.

National Strategy to Develop Statistics for Environmental-Economic Decisions, The White House

With every passing year, scientists, innovators, and economists discover more evidence about how the economy relies on nature and how economic activities change nature’s ability to provide services. The fact that nature provides people with services now and opportunities in the future is why economists refer to nature as a form of capital. This natural capital supports economic prosperity in similar ways to the financial capital that is traded on Wall Street or the buildings and machines that make up the physical capital on Main Street. charts a course to measure natural capital in official U.S. economic statistics. The current absence of important economic metrics and the omission of nature from the national balance sheet lead to the erosion of current and future economic opportunities. The proposed expansion of the national economic accounting system seeks to provide new information to capture links between nature and the economy. The strategic plan uses existing authorities and builds on and integrates numerous existing natural capital measurement efforts across many federal agencies. The resulting multi-year effort will lead to more inclusive and forward-looking conversations about “the economy.” It will provide and organize the information needed to make informed decisions that enhance economic prosperity in the present while securing future nature- dependent economic opportunities.

Breakthrough Effect: How to trigger a cascade of tipping points to accelerate the net zero transition’, Meldrum et al., Systemiq

With time running out to limit global warming to 1.5°C, the authors show how parts of the global economy could move rapidly towards zero emissions, with far-reaching effects across 10 of the highest-emitting sectors: that’s the Breakthrough Effect. A leverage point is where a small intervention can cause a large effect. The “super-leverage points” identified in the report not only cut emissions in one key sector but also support faster changes in other parts of the economy. The three super-leverage points are mandates for the sale of electric vehicles, mandates requiring “green ammonia” to be used in the manufacturing of agricultural fertilizers, and public procurement of plant-based proteins. These changes could trigger a cascade of tipping points, leading to cheaper batteries to help solar and wind scale up in the electricity sector, cheaper hydrogen opening up decarbonization for the shipping and steel industries, and reduced pressure for deforestation.

Powering Toward 100 Percent Clean Power by 2035, Harper et al, Evergreen Collaborative

Decarbonizing the power sector is a major task requiring both federal legislative and executive action. Accordingly, the Biden Administration has promised a whole-of-government response that includes robust performance standards, significant investment, and a commitment to justice. The U.S. took an important step in clean energy investment in 2022 when Congress and President Biden enacted the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA). This historic climate legislation contains over $370 billion in investments toward building America’s clean energy economy. However, according to the authors, the U.S. must take further action to meet its clean energy goals this decade. The IRA’s investments are projected to increase carbon-free electricity in the U.S. from approximately 40 percent in 2022 to 66 percent clean power by 2030. This falls short of the 80 percent target that is consistent with the path to 100 percent clean electricity by 2035. The law is also estimated to help cut economy-wide greenhouse gas (GHG) pollution to 40 percent below 2005 levels by 2030—an important step, but short of America’s 50–52 percent commitment under the Paris Agreement.

One-Year Progress Summary Report: Preliminary Modeling Results and High-Resolution Solar and Wind Data Sets, Blair et al, National Renewal Energy Laboratory

The Puerto Rico Grid Resilience and Transitions to 100% Renewable Energy Study (PR100) report summarizes PR100 progress during its first year and provides considerations that can inform potential funding and implementation decisions by key federal and local agencies and stakeholders. The authors provide initial modeling and analysis results and describe high-resolution wind and solar resource data sets for Puerto Rico. Obtaining articles without journal subscriptions

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How is New Research assembled?

Most articles appearing here are found via  RSS feeds from journal publishers, filtered by search terms to produce raw output for assessment of relevance. 

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Categories: I. Climate Science

Checklist: How to take advantage of brand-new clean energy tax credits

Skeptical Science - Wed, 01/25/2023 - 13:54

This is a re-post from Yale Climate Connections by Samantha Harrington

Imagine it’s a cold February night and your furnace breaks. You want to replace it with an electric heat pump because you’ve heard that tax credits will help pay for the switch. And you know that heat pumps can reduce energy costs and the carbon footprint of your home.

But it turns out that your home needs a new electric panel to support a heat pump. Your house is freezing and you don’t have the time to make that improvement. You’re forced to stick to a gas-burning furnace that will last 15 to 20 years, so you lose out on the tax break and cheaper energy bills — and you’ve locked in fossil fuel pollution from the furnace that will likely continue until the late 2030s or beyond.

This example shows why it’s important to make a plan now to make the most of new federal clean energy tax credits available under the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act, said Sarah Lazarovic, the head of communications and brand at Rewiring America, a nonprofit that advocates for widespread use of clean electricity.

These new tax credits are designed to help consumers move away from highly polluting furnaces, home appliances, and cars in favor of newer, cleaner technology — such as heat pumps, induction stoves, and electric vehicles — that run on electricity.

Lazarovic suggests making a pledge to yourself: “From here on out, everything I buy is going to be electric, because otherwise I’m literally just throwing money away.”

Here are nine items to put on your checklist between now and 2032, the year when tax credits are scheduled to expire or start to decline.

THIS YEAR: Get a home energy audit

Home energy audits help you understand how much energy your home uses and improvements that can reduce that use. The energy-efficient home improvement tax credit will help cover the cost of home energy audits. The credit covers 30% of the cost of a home energy audit and is capped at $150.

“A home energy assessment should be your first step before making energy-saving home improvements, as well as before adding a renewable energy system to your home,” according to the U.S. Department of Energy.

SOON: Find out if you need a new electric panel or need to rewire your home to support heat pumps and other electric appliances

If you have an older home or just aren’t sure if your home is ready to support electrification, contact a trusted electrician or contractor. Tell that person you’re hoping to replace your gas furnace or other appliances with their electricity-based equivalents in the next 10 years. Ask if those upgrades will require a new electric panel or wiring. If so, start that process as soon as you can. That way, if you have any surprise furnace breakdowns, your home will be ready.

The energy-efficient home improvement tax credit will help offset the costs of updating your electric panel and wiring. That credit is worth 30% of the cost, including installation. The full amount you can get for home improvements is capped at $1,200 each year. For more details about this tax credit, check out Rewiring America’s fact sheet.

SOON: Improve insulation in your home

A well-insulated home stays warmer in the winter and cooler in the summer. Improving your home’s insulation reduces your heating and cooling needs, potentially enabling you to purchase a smaller, cheaper heat pump when the time comes.

The Inflation Reduction Act includes a 30% tax credit for energy efficiency improvements, capped at $1,200.

If you’re making other efficiency upgrades, such as updating windows, doors, or your electrical panel, consider spreading those improvements over several years to get the most of the credit. For example, if you used $1,200 worth of credit on insulation in one year and bought new windows that same year, you’d hit the cap with the insulation alone and would miss out on credit for the windows.

OVER SEVERAL YEARS: Replace your windows

Drafty windows are a common source of energy leaks from a home, particularly older residences. The Inflation Reduction Act includes a 30% tax credit for window improvements. As described above, the tax credit for home energy efficiency improvements, which includes electric panel updates, insulation, and efficient doors and windows, is capped at $1,200 each year. Windows alone are capped at $600. It’s important to remember that these caps reset each year.

“If someone were to contemplate replacing all of the exterior windows in their home, they actually may want to do that over several years beginning in 2023,” said Tom O’Saben, director of tax content and government relations at the National Association of Tax Professionals.

OVER SEVERAL YEARS: Replace exterior doors

Like windows, doors can also be drafty and energy-inefficient. And like windows, the tax credit available for doors is 30%. The credit you can get for one exterior door is capped at $250, and $500 is the cap for all exterior doors.

WHEN IT BREAKS: Replace your furnace with a heat pump

Heat pumps can both cool and heat your home. In the summer, they pull heat from the air of your home and move it outside. In the winter, they pull heat from the outdoor air into your home to warm it. Heat pumps are more energy-efficient than conventional air conditioning or heating, and they run on electricity rather than natural gas or oil.

Read: A big source of carbon pollution is lurking in basements and attics

Several different kinds of heat pumps are available, so work with your contractor or energy efficiency professionals to determine which type makes the most sense for your climate and living situation.

The energy-efficient home improvement credit offers a 30% credit for heat pumps, but the tax credit for heat pumps and heat pump water heaters is capped at $2,000 annually. For the most savings, you will likely want to purchase your heat pump and heat pump water heater in separate years.

The average cost of a new heat pump and installation is $5,500, according to Forbes, but prices can vary widely based on the size of the heat pump you need. A 30% credit on that average cost would be $1,650, well below the $2,000 cap. These credits are nonrefundable, so you would need to owe at least $1,650 in tax to get the full credit.

If you need an electric panel upgrade to support either a heat pump or a heat pump water heater, you can get up to $600 in tax credits for that upgrade. As described above, the $600 counts toward a $1,200 total annual cap on improvements, which includes new windows and doors, so you may also want to plan those updates for different years.

WHEN IT BREAKS: Replace your water heater with a heat pump water heater

Heat pump water heaters use electricity to pull heat from the air to warm water. They can be two to three times more energy efficient than conventional water heaters.

The average new heat pump water heater costs between $1,500 and $3,000, according to Forbes. The same tax credit for the heat pump applies to the heat pump water heater. So if you spent $2,000 on a heat pump water heater, you would get a tax credit of $600.

Because the tax credit for heat pumps and heat pump water heaters is capped at $2,000 each year, you may want to plan to purchase them in separate years to get the highest possible credit.

WHEN IT BREAKS: Replace your combustion engine car with an EV

Two credits can help you save on an electric vehicle: The clean vehicle credit applies to new vehicles, and the credit for previously owned clean vehicles applies to used vehicles. Tax experts said that there are lingering questions for the IRS to answer about the requirements vehicles must meet to qualify.

Read: Don’t get fooled: Electric vehicles really are better for the climate

“In most cases, when the IRS comes out with guidance, they tend to not penalize people who went off of original somewhat ambiguous guidance,” O’Saben said. But, he added, if you want to be conservative, you might want to wait for more clarity before purchasing a vehicle.

The clean vehicle credit is for $7,500 and applies to new vehicles that:

  • Are electric vehicles with batteries of at least seven kilowatt-hours or are hydrogen fuel cell vehicles
  • Cost less than $80,000 for vans, SUVs, and pickup trucks, or under $55,000 for all other vehicles
  • Completed assembly in the U.S., Canada, or Mexico. You can check this U.S. government website to see if a specific car meets this requirement.
  • Meet requirements related to where battery components are manufactured and the source of critical minerals used in the batteries. Those requirements will grow more stringent over time.

In addition, the adjusted gross income of the person or people purchasing the car must be under $300,000 if their tax status is married filing jointly, under $225,000 for head of household status, or under $150,000 for single or married filing separately status.

Starting in 2024, you will have the option to transfer your tax credit to the dealer at the time of the sale, reducing the upfront cost of the car. Luscombe said questions remain about how this process will work and how dealers will ensure that buyers are qualified.

If you’re interested in buying a used car, similar restrictions apply — but with lower income and vehicle cost thresholds. Your adjusted gross income must be under $150,000 if your tax status is married filing jointly, or under $75,000 if your filing status is single or married filing separately.

For a vehicle to qualify for the credit for previously owned clean vehicles it must also:

  • Meet the requirements for a clean vehicle used in the clean vehicle credit
  • Have a model year at least two years earlier than the date of sale
  • Weigh less than 14,000 pounds
  • Cost less than $25,000.

This credit is for either $4,000 or 30% of the cost of the vehicle, whichever is smaller.

LONGER TERM: Explore getting a renewable energy system to power your home

Not every home is suitable for a renewable energy system, but if your property can support one, the residential clean energy credit can help you pay for it. Systems that qualify for the credit include:

  • Home solar
  • Qualified battery storage
  • Solar water heating
  • Fuel cells
  • Geothermal heat pumps
  • Small wind energy

The residential clean energy tax credit amount is 30% of the cost of a qualifying system, including installation. After 2032, the credit percentage starts to decline.

O’Saben of the National Association of Tax Professionals said he’s already seeing some price quotes include anticipated tax credits. “When you see a quote for a solar panel project, in the fine print, it’ll say, ‘The final price assumes a 30% credit,’” he said.

The average cost of a home solar system in 2022 was about $26,000, according to Home Advisor, and that cost is expected to fall over time. That price would result in a credit of $7,800. This credit is nonrefundable, so you would need to owe $7,800 in taxes to get the full credit, but unused credits can roll over to the next year.

Read: Three common myths about solar energy, demystified

BONUS TIP: Stay on the lookout for coming rebates

Federal tax credits aren’t the only way to save on clean energy systems, electric vehicles, and home improvements. Rebates expected to go into effect in late 2023 will help cover heat pumps, electric stoves, wiring, weatherization, and more. But uncertainty remains about how the funds will be distributed.

The advantage of these rebates is that they will be point-of-sale discounts — in other words, you’ll pay less upfront rather than waiting until the next time you pay taxes to receive a credit.

If you can afford to wait to replace appliances until the rebates go into effect, especially if you qualify as low-income, factor that into your plan. The rebates are expected to cover 100% of the costs for electrification projects for low-income consumers and 50% for moderate-income consumers. Rewiring America’s Inflation Reduction Act savings calculator can help you to understand which rebates and tax credits could benefit you.

If you are a renter, Rewiring America’s Lazarovic recommended talking to your landlords and advocating for clean energy systems.

In addition to federal credits, many states and utilities also offer clean energy tax credits or rebates. This database will help you find incentives available in your area.

“It seems like a lot because it is a lot. There’s tons of money. There’s tons of decisions to be made,” Lazarovic said. “If you do one thing in the first half of this year, call a contractor or call an electrician to know where you stand for getting your heat pump installed or your new induction stove.”

Categories: I. Climate Science

The U.S. had 18 different billion-dollar weather disasters in 2022

Skeptical Science - Tue, 01/24/2023 - 13:22

This is a re-post from Yale Climate Connections by Jeff Masters and Bob Henson

The contiguous United States suffered 18 billion-dollar weather disasters in 2022, according to NOAA, tied for the third-highest number in inflation-adjusted data going back to 1980. Only 2020, with 22 billion-dollar weather disasters, and 2021, with 20, had more. NOAA also reported that 2022 ranked as the 18th-warmest year since 1895.

The total cost of 2022’s billion-dollar weather disasters, $165 billion, was the third-highest on record, behind 2005 and 2017. Five of the last six years (2017-2022, with 2019 being the exception) have each had a price tag of at least $100 billion. Billion-dollar events account for 80-85% of the total U.S. losses for all weather-related disasters.

Billion-dollar weather disasters in the U.S. killed 474 people in 2022, compared to 688 in 2021. NOAA’s 2022 billion-dollar weather disaster list included 11 severe storm events, three hurricanes, one flood, one winter weather event, one drought, and one wildfire event.

NOAA’s 1980-2022 annual inflation-adjusted average is 7.9 billion-dollar events, but over the past five years (2018-2022), the annual average has more than doubled, to 17.8 events. NOAA reported that the number and cost of disasters are increasing over time as a result of:

– Increased exposure (i.e., more people with more stuff );
– Increased vulnerability (i.e., more people living in flood plains, on barrier islands, etc.); and
– Climate change increasing the frequency of some types of extremes that lead to billion-dollar disasters.

Figure 1. The 18 billion-dollar U.S. weather disasters of 2022. (Image credit: NOAA)

Figure 2. Costliest U.S. weather disasters (2022 dollars) since 1980 from NOAA’s list of billion-dollar weather events.

Hurricane Ian the third-costliest weather disaster in world history

Heading up NOAA’s list of 2022’s billion-dollar weather disasters was Hurricane Ian, which powered ashore along the southwest Florida coast at Cayo Costa Island Sept. 28 as a category 4 storm with 150 mph winds and a central pressure of 940 mb, tying as the fifth-strongest hurricane on record (by wind speed) to make a contiguous U.S. landfall. NOAA estimated damage from Ian at $112.9 billion. Based on the EM-DAT international disaster database, this makes Ian the third-costliest weather disaster in world recorded history, behind only Hurricane Katrina of 2005 and Hurricane Harvey of 2017. The top eight most expensive weather disasters globally were the U.S. hurricanes at the top of the list in Figure 2.

As noted in our 2022 hurricane-season roundup, four named storms made a U.S landfall in 2022, with Hurricane Ian being the most destructive. The other landfalls were category 1 Hurricane Fiona in Puerto Rico (Sept. 17, $2.5 billion in damage), and category 1 Hurricane Nicole in Florida (Nov. 10, $1 billion in damage). Tropical Storm Colin’s landfall in South Carolina on June 5 did no appreciable damage.

Figure 3. Deadliest U.S. hurricanes of the past 60 years for direct and indirect deaths. Data from 2016 – 2022 is from NOAA’s list of billion-dollar weather events; death tolls from 1963 – 2015 were taken from a 2016 paper, Fatalities in the United States Indirectly Associated With Tropical Cyclones. Indirect death tallies are unreliable prior to 1985.

Hurricane Ian the fifth-deadliest U.S. hurricane since 1963

The death toll from Hurricane Ian was unusually high for a U.S. hurricane in recent decades. NOAA’s put Ian’s direct and indirect death toll at 152, making Ian the fifth-deadliest U.S. hurricane in the past 60 years, according to statistics of maintained by key federal agencies (Figure 3). Causes of direct deaths include drowning in storm surge, storm-driven waves, rip currents, or freshwater flood from rain; falling trees are also a common source of direct deaths. Causes of indirect deaths include falls during post-storm clean up, traffic accidents, carbon monoxide poisoning from generators, and medical issues compounded by a hurricane.

Dozens of deaths from Ian have been attributed to drowning, both from storm surge and inland flooding. This runs counter to a recent trend in U.S. hurricanes toward indirect fatalities and away from direct fatalities (see our post from June 2022).

Another warm year in the U.S.

In its preliminary annual round-up of U.S. climate, also released on January 10, NOAA found that 2022 ranked as the 18th-warmest year since 1895. Florida, Rhode Island, Massachusetts, California, New Hampshire, Maine, and Connecticut had a top-10 warmest year on record; no states had temperatures considered below average. Every year since 1996 has been warmer across the Lower 48 than the 1901-2000 average, and the eight warmest years on record all have occurred in the 21st century (although 2022 was not in that group of eight).

Figure 4. Rankings of average temperature in 2022 for each contiguous U.S. state across records going back to 1895. Higher numbers (from 1 to 127) denote warmer values. (Image credit: NOAA/NCEI)

The contiguous U.S. has now warmed by around 2°F (1.1°C) since 1895, on par with the global average of 2°F (1.1°C) during the same period. That’s a noteworthy trend given that the U.S. was lagging much of the globe in long-term warming during the late 20th century.

Based on preliminary data from NOAA compiled by independent meteorologist Guy Walton, the U.S. in 2022 had 33,256 daily record maximums and 18,117 daily record minimums, a ratio of almost 2-to-1. A 2009 paper by Walton and colleagues predicted that the typical ratio could reach 20-to-1 by mid-century and 50-to-1 by late in the century.

The standout season in 2022 was summer, which was the third-hottest on record for the contiguous U.S., just 0.06°F below 2021 and 1936. This makes 2021 and 2022 by far the hottest pair of consecutive summers in U.S. records.

One of the banner weather events of the year was the spectacularly sharp cold wave that plowed across most of the northern, central, and eastern U.S. during the third week of December. The cold blast led to amazing temperature drops in many locations, including the largest on record at sites ranging from Denver to New York City. The latter was observed at Central Park, where New York records have been kept since 1869, making it an especially noteworthy event.

The worst single outcome from the Arctic blast was a horrific snowstorm in and near Buffalo, New York, that combined local lake-effect and larger-scale weather processes to produce white-out blizzard conditions for hours on end. Even in a city familiar with intense snow, the storm surprised people with its utter ferocity. At least 41 people were killed in the Buffalo area, including 17 people on foot who were found dead in snowbanks.

Although the nation’s brutal pre-holiday cold was not especially prolonged, it caused pipes to burst in countless buildings, leading to widespread water damage. Much milder weather preceded and followed the Arctic blast in most parts of the country, and the full-month national average came in very close to the typical temperature for December (65th coolest in the 128 years since 1895).

Figure 5. Average temperatures across the contiguous U.S. for each December since 1895. The long-term monthly average is now above 34°F, whereas it was below freezing in the early 20th century. (Image credit: NOAA/NCEI)

A big wildfire year in Alaska, but relatively quiet in California

Intense heat and drought led to another summer of destructive forest fires across the West, although the biggest impacts by far were in sparsely populated Alaska. According to the National Interagency Fire Center, the annual U.S. total acreage burned in 2022 – 7.53 million acres – was considerably less than the 10-million-plus acres consumed in 2020, 2017, and 2015, and the 8.7 million in 2018, but above the 4.6 million in 2019 and 7.1 million in 2021.

The U.S. acreage burned in wildfires in 2022 was far above average in Alaska but much closer to the recent average in the other 49 states combined. Of the 7.53 million U.S. acres burned in all 50 states in 2022, more than 3 million acres were in Alaska, with less than 5 million elsewhere. In contrast, during 2020 and 2021, Alaska saw far less than 1 million acres burned, while the other 49 states experienced close to 10 million and 7 million acres burned, respectively.

After a hellacious string of awful fire years in California (4,090,000 acres burning in 2020, and 2,230,000 acres in 2021, the highest and second-highest acreage in modern records), 2022 saw a much more manageable level of fire activity in the state: about 364,000 acres burned. In an interview with the LA Times, Park Williams, an associate professor of geography at UCLA, said, “We got really lucky. By the end of June, things were looking like the dice were loaded very strongly toward big fires because things were very dry, and there was a chance of big heat waves in the summer, and indeed we actually did have a really big heat wave this summer in September. But that coincided with some really well-timed and well-placed rainstorms.” A $2.8-billion investment in wildfire resilience projects over the last two years for forest management work, prescribed burns, and community outreach was also credited with contributing to the relatively quiet fire season. Unfortunately, the California fire season was deadlier than in 2022, with nine fatalities, all civilians, compared with three firefighter deaths in 2021.

Figure 6. Rankings of average precipitation for each contiguous U.S. state in records going back to 1895. Darker green colors indicate wetter conditions; darker brown denotes drier conditions. (Image credit: NOAA/NCEI)

Fourth-costliest year for drought since 1980

Damages from devastating drought that gripped much of the nation in 2022 amounted to $22.2 billion, making it the fourth-costliest year for drought since 1980. Only 1988 ($51 billion), 2012 ($39 billion), and 1980 ($38 billion) had more expensive droughts (in inflation-adjusted dollars). At least 40% of the contiguous U.S. has been in drought for the last 119 weeks, setting a record in the 22-year U.S. Drought Monitor history. The previous record was 68 consecutive weeks (June 2012 – October 2013).

As is often the case, precipitation was a mixed bag for the United States when averaged by state and across the full year, although drier conditions predominated: Only six states were wetter than average, and none of those placed in the top 10. California and Nebraska had top-10-driest years on record, and most of the western U.S. was drier than average for the year. Clearly, the nation remains far from the widespread sogginess that was in place several years ago, when the nation’s wettest 12 months on record were recorded (37.93 inches from July 2018 to June 2019).

It’s possible we are turning a corner in 2023, as heavy rains and mountain snows have brought precipitation well above average across most of the West for the current water year that began in October. Moreover, the three-year La Niña event still in place is predicted to transition to neutral conditions by spring and perhaps to El Niño by late in the year.

Categories: I. Climate Science

Ceres Global 2023

Carbon Tracker Initiative - Tue, 01/24/2023 - 08:23

22-23 March | New York

Ceres Global, March 22-24, in New York City will discuss the challenges and advance the solutions for creating a more just and inclusive zero emissions economy that protects people and the planet from these existential threats. Together, we will set the course for the global action needed to build a more just and sustainable world.

Barbara Davidson, our Head of Accounting, Audit and Disclosure team will be participating in the session: Flying Blind: The Glaring Absence of Climate Risks in Financial Reporting.

The post Ceres Global 2023 appeared first on Carbon Tracker Initiative.

Categories: I. Climate Science

Climate Transition Plans for Financial Institutions and Listed Companies

Carbon Tracker Initiative - Tue, 01/24/2023 - 01:42

7 February | London

City & Financial Global’s timely summit on the 7th of February will provide practical, detailed guidance about the steps that financial firms and companies need to be taking now in order to ensure that they are prepared to meet regulatory expectations and produce transition plans of the required standard.

This summit will gather some of the most senior leaders and experts in this field to share their knowledge, experience and expertise on the steps companies should be taking now to develop a transition plan within the prescribed time limit.

Barbara Davidson, our Head of Accounting, Audit and Disclosure, will be participating in the session “Scenario Planning”.

 

The post Climate Transition Plans for Financial Institutions and Listed Companies appeared first on Carbon Tracker Initiative.

Categories: I. Climate Science

Input to USDA about how to allocate IRA climate-smart agriculture funds

Skeptical Science - Mon, 01/23/2023 - 13:32

This is a re-post from the Citizens' Climate Lobby blog

In last year’s passage of the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), Congress included about $20 billion earmarked for natural climate solutions. The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) is responsible for deciding how those funds should be allocated to meet the climate goals outlined in the text of the IRA, which include projects that will “reduce, capture, avoid, or sequester carbon dioxide” in American forests and farms.

Eagle-eyed CCL volunteer Matthew Mayers noticed that USDA was requesting public input regarding how to achieve those goals in practice, and CCL staff jumped on the opportunity to provide comments on this issue related to CCL's healthy forests policy agenda.

Specifically, the IRA funds were directed towards four existing conservation programs: $8.45 billion for the environmental quality incentives program (EQIP), $3.25 billion for the conservation stewardship program (CSP), $1.4 billion for the agricultural conservation easement program (ACEP), and $4.95 billion for the regional conservation partnership program (RCPP). Currently, most of the grants from these programs go towards projects related to a wide variety of issues like habitat restoration, fencing, water conservation, and brush management – useful projects, but usually unrelated to climate change.

What does the science say?

To provide informed feedback to the USDA, CCL staff primarily referenced a 2018 study that estimated the potential of various natural climate solutions in the United States. The chart below summarizes the paper’s results, with forest-related solutions illustrated in shades of green and agriculture-related solutions in yellow, brown, and black.

Million metric tons (Mt) of potential carbon sequestration by natural climate solution category in the United States.  Graphic by Dana Nuccitelli, adapted from Fargione et al. (2018), Science Advances.

As you can see, America’s biggest potential natural climate solutions are related to reforestation (planting trees on land that used to be forest) and forest management (harvesting practices in commercially logged forests). The biggest potential reforestation solutions – which are explored at the great Reforestation Hub website run by The Nature Conservancy and American Forests — are silvopasture (combining trees and grazing livestock on the same land) and urban trees. 

There is tremendous potential for silvopasture in southeastern states like Tennessee, Alabama, Mississippi, Texas, Kentucky, Virginia, Georgia, North Carolina, Arkansas, and Florida, where large tracts of forest land were long ago converted to pasture, and where the shade from trees could provide much-needed cooling for livestock as extreme heat events become increasingly intense and frequent in this region.

“Forest management” describes a variety of practices such as letting trees grow older and larger before harvesting them for wood products, harvesting them in a way that minimizes the carbon released by the surrounding soils and trees, and mitigating wildfire risks.

Some farming practices such as cover cropping (planting crops to create soil cover between food crop seasons to improve soil quality, water retention, reduce erosion, etc.) and reduced-tillage agriculture might also have the potential to significantly increase the amount of carbon stored in the soil on American farms. But recent studies raise questions as to how effective these practices are at sequestering carbon individually, so further research is needed in these areas.

CCL’s recommendations

The EQIP, CSP, ACEP, and RCPP programs have funded some of these types of natural climate solutions projects in recent years. Cover cropping and reduced-tillage agriculture in particular have received a significant number of grants. Silvopasture projects and forest management plans have received only scattered funding.

As a result, CCL recommended that the USDA should give silvopasture and other agroforestry projects (for example, alley cropping, which combines rows of trees between rows of crops on farms) and forest management plans the highest priority for the IRA natural climate solutions funding. Cover cropping and reduced-tillage agriculture could be given a secondary prioritization to encourage further study into their carbon sequestration efficacy.

For further details, you can read CCL’s comment on the USDA website or in this PDF document. We hope that our recommendations are helpful to the USDA as CCL staff turns our attention to legislation coming out of Congress in 2023 related to healthy forests and the rest of CCL’s policy agenda.

Categories: I. Climate Science

2023 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #3

Skeptical Science - Sat, 01/21/2023 - 09:25
A chronological listing of news articles posted on the Skeptical Science Facebook Page during the past week: Sun, Jan 15, 2023  thru Sat, Jan 21, 2023. Story of the Week State of the climate: How the world warmed in 2022

With a new year underway, most of the climate data for the whole of 2022 is now available. And this data shows that last year set new records for individual locations as well as the world as a whole. 

Here, Carbon Brief examines the latest data across the oceans, atmosphere, cryosphere and surface temperature of the planet (see the links below to navigate between sections). This 2022 review reveals:

  • Ocean heat content: It was the warmest year on record for ocean heat content, which increased notably between 2021 and 2022.
  • Surface temperature: It was between the fifth and sixth warmest year on record for surface temperature for the world as a whole, at between 1.1C and 1.3C above pre-industrial levels across different temperature datasets. The last eight years have been the eight warmest years since records began in the mid-1800s.
  • A persistent triple-dip La Niña: The year ended up cooler than it would otherwise be due to persistent La Niña conditions in the tropical Pacific. Carbon Brief finds that 2022 would have been the second warmest year on record after 2020 in the absence of short-term variability from El Niño and La Niña events. 
  • Warming over land: It was the warmest year on record in 28 countries – including China, France, Germany, Ireland, Italy, New Zealand, Portugal, Spain and the Uk – and in areas where 850 million people live.
  • Extreme weather: 2022 saw extreme heatwaves over Europe, China, India, Pakistan and South America, as well as catastrophic flooding in Pakistan, Brazil, West Africa and South Africa. Climate change played a clear role in increasing the severity of all of these events.
  • Comparison with climate model data: Observations for 2022 are close to the central estimate of climate models featured in the IPCC fifth assessment report.
  • Warming of the atmosphere: It was the seventh or eighth warmest year in the lower troposphere – the lowest part of the atmosphere – depending on which dataset is used. The stratosphere – in the upper atmosphere – is cooling, due in part to heat trapped in the lower atmosphere by greenhouse gases.
  • Sea level rise: Sea levels reached new record-highs, with notable acceleration over the past three decades.
  • Greenhouse gases: Concentrations reached record levels for CO2, methane and nitrous oxide.
  • Sea ice extent: Arctic sea ice saw its 10th lowest minimum extent on record, and was generally at the low end of the historical range for the year. Antarctic sea ice saw a new record low extent for much of 2022.
  • Looking ahead to 2022: Carbon Brief predicts that global average surface temperatures in 2023 are most likely to be slightly warmer than 2022, but are unlikely to set a new all-time record given lingering La Niña conditions in the first half of the year.

Click here to access the entire article as originally posted on the Carbon Brief website.

State of the climate: How the world warmed in 2022 by Zeke Hausfather, Climate Brief, Jan 18, 2023

Links posted on Facebook

Sun, Jan 15, 2023

Mon, Jan 16, 2023

Tue, Jan 17, 2023

Wed, Jan 18, 2023

Thu, Jan 19, 2023

Fri, Jan 20, 2023

Sat, Jan 21, 2023

Categories: I. Climate Science

Skeptical Science New Research for Week #3 2023

Skeptical Science - Thu, 01/19/2023 - 08:34
Open access notables

Bad news delivered by an all-star cast of familiar researchers: Another Year of Record Heat for the Oceans. From the abstract:

In 2022, the world’s oceans, as given by OHC, were again the hottest in the historical record and exceeded the previous 2021 record maximum. According to IAP/CAS data, the 0–2000 m OHC in 2022 exceeded that of 2021 by 10.9 ± 8.3 ZJ (1 Zetta Joules = 1021 Joules); and according to NCEI/NOAA data, by 9.1 ± 8.7 ZJ. Among seven regions, four basins (the North Pacific, North Atlantic, the Mediterranean Sea, and southern oceans) recorded their highest OHC since the 1950s. The salinity-contrast index, a quantification of the “salty gets saltier–fresh gets fresher” pattern, also reached its highest level on record in 2022, implying continued amplification of the global hydrological cycle.

Alexander Li, Chen-Fei Qu and Xi-Liang Zhang build improved models to explore different international emissions trading scenarios in Exploring U.S.–China Climate cooperation through linked carbon markets. Their results suggest yet again that "can't we all just get along" is a sensible hint, if we believe that mutually optimized GDP connotes success. While bilateral cooperation between the US and China will provide useful emissions benefits, the best outcome seems to be a fully mulitlateral engagement involving other SE Asian actors. 

In Polarisation vs consensus-building: how US and German news media portray climate change as a feature of political identities Robin Tschötschel explores a hypothesis with subtle implications: "Depending on the outlet consumed, audiences will encounter different representations of what it means to be a Democrat or Republican, a member of one of the German parties, or a young citizen." These portrayals feed cognitive heuristics helping to shape individuals' conclusions about the validity, importance or urgency of whatever matter is under discussion, here climate change. From case to case this of course may or may not be an engineered outcome and witless media behavior may be as harmful as planned deceit, Skeptical Science offers.

The other benefit of electric vehicles by Michael Stadler et al. employs buildings in California to provide a detailed model of how EV batteries can be integrated into power grids at the retail level to provide demand response. Even while we may end up replicating "too many cars" as we modernize vehicle fleets, there's a silver lining to having all of this transportation hardware piling up and connected to the grid: collectively it can replace large electrical plant assets needed for demand response. 

The invisible fingers of the gas CO2 we're adding to the atmosphere reach many places and act in subtle ways. One such circumstance appears set to have a profound impact on a ceteacean species. Changes in Antarctic sea ice cover due to warming trigger further knock-on effects and thus disturb a food web spanning from planckton, across krill and on to large mammals--whales. A surplus no more? Variation in krill availability impacts reproductive rates of Antarctic baleen whales by Logan Pallin et al. couples krill population with baleen whale reproductive rates to show where controls on whale populations are rooted, and how these in turn are controlled by geophysics we're creating. It doesn't help that krill are also the target of a burgeoning fishery. 

As part of their performance as trained circus animals putting on a show for the fossil fuel industry (and being paid poorly for this embarrassing, humiliating display), some US state legislatures are seeking to punish corporations for behaving responsibily via their including "Environmental, Social, and Governance" policies in corporate bylaws. ESG Boycott Legislation in States: Municipal Bond Market Impact in our government/NGO section and commissioned by the Sunrise Project examines how much gumming up the works in this way is costing taxpayers. It's costly friction; hundreds of millions of dollars per year are being wasted for fossil-friendly legislative optics. 

156 articles in 63 journals by 1,336 contributing authors

Physical science of climate change, effects

AMOC Stabilization under the Interaction with Tipping Polar Ice Sheets
Sinet et al., ESS Open Archive, Open Access 10.1002/essoar.10511833.1

Interaction between dry and hot extremes at a global scale using a cascade modeling framework
Mukherjee et al., Nature Communications, Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-022-35748-7

Investigating the radiative effect of Arctic cirrus measured in situ during the winter 2015–2016
Marsing et al., Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Open Access pdf 10.5194/acp-23-587-2023

Radiative contributions of different cloud types to regional energy budget over the SACOL site
Wang et al., Climate Dynamics, 10.1007/s00382-022-06651-0

Observations of climate change, effects

Another Year of Record Heat for the Oceans
Cheng et al., Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, Open Access pdf 10.1007/s00376-023-2385-2

Changing water chemistry in one thousand Norwegian lakes during three decades of cleaner air and climate change
de Wit et al., Global Biogeochemical Cycles, 10.1029/2022gb007509

Observed trends and coherent changes in daily rainfall extremes over Greater Mumbai, 1985–2020
Mann et al., Theoretical and Applied Climatology, Open Access 10.1007/s00704-022-04354-4

Recent waning snowpack in the Alps is unprecedented in the last six centuries
Carrer et al., Nature Climate Change, 10.1038/s41558-022-01575-3

Separation and attribution of impacts of changes in land use and climate on hydrological processes
Polong et al., Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 10.1007/s00704-022-04351-7

Severity of winters in the Czech Republic during the 1961–2021 period and related environmental impacts and responses
Brázdil et al., International Journal of Climatology, 10.1002/joc.8003

Spatial and temporal variation characteristics of extreme hydrometeorological events in the Yellow River Basin and their effects on vegetation
Song et al., Natural Hazards, 10.1007/s11069-022-05745-6

Spatiotemporal analysis of consecutive extreme wet days in China from 1980 to 2020
Zong et al., International Journal of Climatology, 10.1002/joc.8011

Time trends, irregularity and multifractal structure on the monthly rainfall regime at Barcelona, NE Spain, years 1786–2019
Lana et al., International Journal of Climatology, Open Access 10.1002/joc.7786

Instrumentation & observational methods of climate change, effects

Application of copula-based approach as a new data-driven model for downscaling the mean daily temperature
Nazeri Tahroudi et al., International Journal of Climatology, 10.1002/joc.7752

Evaluating Winter Precipitation over the Western Himalayas in a High-Resolution Indian Regional Reanalysis Using Multisource Climate Datasets
Nischal et al., Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, 10.1175/jamc-d-21-0172.1

Improved Monitoring of Subglacial Lake Activity in Greenland
Bahbah Nielsen et al., [journal not provided], Open Access 10.5194/egusphere-egu22-7222

Modeling, simulation & projection of climate change, effects

A Bayesian hierarchical spatio-temporal model for extreme temperatures in Extremadura (Spain) simulated by a Regional Climate Model
García et al., Climate Dynamics, Open Access 10.1007/s00382-022-06638-x

Assessment of future wind speed and wind power changes over South Greenland using the Modèle Atmosphérique Régional regional climate model
Lambin et al., International Journal of Climatology, Open Access pdf 10.1002/joc.7795

Climate-driven changes of global marine mercury cycles in 2100
Wang et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 10.1073/pnas.2202488120

Exploiting SMILEs and the CMIP5 Archive to Understand Arctic Climate Change Seasonality and Uncertainty
Wu et al., Geophysical Research Letters, 10.1029/2022gl100745

Future changes in the transitions of monthly-to-seasonal precipitation extremes over the Midwest in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 models
Chen & Ford, International Journal of Climatology, 10.1002/joc.7756

Mega-city development impact on hourly extreme rainfall over the South China Greater Bay Area under near-future climate warming
Hu et al., Urban Climate, 10.1016/j.uclim.2022.101389

Pyrocumulonimbus Events over British Columbia in 2017: An Ensemble Model Study of Parameter Sensitivities and Climate Impacts of Wildfire Smoke in the Stratosphere
Lee et al., [journal not provided], Open Access 10.1002/essoar.10511121.1

Simulation and projection of climate extremes in China by multiple Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 models
Wei et al., International Journal of Climatology, 10.1002/joc.7751

The Role of Mesoscale Cloud Morphology in the Shortwave Cloud Feedback
McCoy et al., [journal not provided], Open Access 10.1002/essoar.10512288.1

Understanding the seasonality, trends and controlling factors of Indian Ocean acidification over distinctive bio-provinces
Madkaiker et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences, Open Access 10.1029/2022jg006926

Advancement of climate & climate effects modeling, simulation & projection

Advantages of a variable-resolution global climate model in reproducing the seasonal evolution of East Asian summer monsoon
Zhu et al., International Journal of Climatology, Open Access pdf 10.1002/joc.7796

Characterising temperature and precipitation multi-variate biases in 12 km and 2.2 km UK Climate Projections
Garry & Bernie, International Journal of Climatology, 10.1002/joc.8006

Deficient precipitation sensitivity to Sahel land surface forcings among CMIP5 models
Wang et al., International Journal of Climatology, 10.1002/joc.7737

How well do CMIP6 models simulate the climatological northern boundary of the East Asian summer monsoon?
Piao et al., Global and Planetary Change, 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2023.104034

Machine learning of cloud types in satellite observations and climate models
Kuma et al., Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Open Access pdf 10.5194/acp-23-523-2023

Mesoscale convective clustering enhances tropical precipitation
Angulo-Umana & Kim, Science Advances, 10.1126/sciadv.abo5317

Robustness of precipitation Emergent Constraints in CMIP6 models
Ferguglia et al., Climate Dynamics, Open Access pdf 10.1007/s00382-022-06634-1

The representation of summer monsoon rainfall over northeast India: assessing the performance of CORDEX-CORE model experiments
Ahamed et al., Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 10.1007/s00704-023-04369-5

Cryosphere & climate change

A regional and seasonal approach to explain the observed trends in the Antarctic sea ice in recent decades
Yu et al., International Journal of Climatology, 10.1002/joc.8010

Comparison of energy and mass balance characteristics between two glaciers in adjacent basins in the Qilian Mountains
Chen et al., Climate Dynamics, 10.1007/s00382-022-06641-2

Decomposition of Estuarine Circulation and Residual Stratification under Landfast Sea Ice
Burchard et al., Journal of Physical Oceanography, 10.1175/jpo-d-22-0088.1

First results of Antarctic sea ice type retrieval from active and passive microwave remote sensing data
Melsheimer et al., The Cryosphere, Open Access pdf 10.5194/tc-17-105-2023

Glaciological history and structural evolution of the Shackleton Ice Shelf system, East Antarctica, over the past 60 years
Thompson et al., The Cryosphere, Open Access pdf 10.5194/tc-17-157-2023

IMPACT OF SEA ICE COVER SHRINKAGE ON THE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS IN MID AND HIGH LATITUDES OF THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE
J?druszkiewicz et al., International Journal of Climatology, 10.1002/joc.8008

Inter-decadal climate variability induces differential ice response along Pacific-facing West Antarctica
Christie et al., Nature Communications, Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-022-35471-3

Quantitative Impact of Organic Matter and Soil Moisture on Permafrost
Du et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 10.1029/2022jd037686

Paleoclimate

Climatic and vegetational controls of Holocene wildfire regimes in the boreal forest of northern Fennoscandia
Remy et al., Journal of Ecology, 10.1111/1365-2745.14065

No changes in overall AMOC strength in interglacial PMIP4 time slices
Jiang et al., Climate of the Past, Open Access pdf 10.5194/cp-19-107-2023

Paleoclimate Changes in the Pacific Northwest Over the Past 36,000 Years from Clumped Isotope Measurements and Model Analysis
Lopez?Maldonado et al., Paleoceanography and Paleoclimatology, Open Access 10.1029/2021pa004266

Sensitivity of northwest Australian tropical cyclone activity to ITCZ migration since 500 CE
Denniston et al., Science Advances, 10.1126/sciadv.add9832

Biology & climate change, related geochemistry

A surplus no more? Variation in krill availability impacts reproductive rates of Antarctic baleen whales
Pallin et al., Global Change Biology, Open Access 10.1111/gcb.16559

Benthic composition changes on coral reefs at global scales
Tebbett et al., Nature Ecology & Evolution, 10.1038/s41559-022-01937-2

Climate presses and pulses mediate the decline of a migratory predator
Clark-Wolf et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 10.1073/pnas.2209821120

Common snowdrop as a climate change bioindicator in Czechia
Hájková et al., International Journal of Biometeorology, 10.1007/s00484-023-02426-2

Disentangling thermal from alternative drivers of reflectance in jewel beetles: A macroecological study
Wang et al., Global Ecology and Biogeography, Open Access 10.1111/geb.13632

Disrupting a socio-ecological system: could traditional ecological knowledge be the key to preserving the Araucaria Forest in Brazil under climate change?
Tagliari et al., Climatic Change, Open Access 10.1007/s10584-022-03477-x

Earlier precipitation enhances dryland annual primary production
Zhao et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences, 10.1029/2022jg007127

Effects of high temperature stress on the intestinal histology and microbiota in Yesso scallop Patinopecten yessoensis
Kong et al., Marine Environmental Research, 10.1016/j.marenvres.2023.105881

Future temperature extremes threaten land vertebrates
Murali et al., Nature, 10.1038/s41586-022-05606-z

Global patterns of climate change impacts on desert bird communities
Ma et al., Nature Communications, Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-023-35814-8

Half a century of rising extinction risk of coral reef sharks and rays
Sherman et al., Nature Communications, Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-022-35091-x

Highly conserved thermal performance strategies may limit adaptive potential in corals
Álvarez-Noriega et al., Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, 10.1098/rspb.2022.1703

The detection and attribution of extreme reductions in vegetation growth across the global land surface
Yang et al., Global Change Biology, 10.1111/gcb.16595

Warming-induced tree growth may help offset increasing disturbance across the Canadian boreal forest
Wang et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 10.1073/pnas.2212780120

Warmth shifts symbionts
Armarego-Marriott, Nature Climate Change, 10.1038/s41558-022-01580-6

GHG sources & sinks, flux, related geochemistry

A Coupled Deep Learning Model for Estimating Surface NO2 Levels from Remote Sensing Data: 15-Year Study Over the Contiguous United States
Ghahremanloo et al., SSRN Electronic Journal, 10.2139/ssrn.4280883

Carbon for soils, not soils for carbon
Masciandaro et al., The Future of Soil Carbon, Open Access 10.1016/b978-0-12-811687-6.00001-8

Carbon uptake in Eurasian boreal forests dominates the high-latitude net ecosystem carbon budget
Watts et al., Global Change Biology, 10.1111/gcb.16553

Dinitrogen emissions dominate nitrogen gas emissions from soils with low oxygen availability in a moist tropical forest
Almaraz et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences, 10.1029/2022jg007210

Dissolved carbon export by large river systems is influenced by source area heterogeneity
Stets. et al., Global Biogeochemical Cycles, 10.1029/2022gb007392

Modeled production, oxidation and transport processes of wetland methane emissions in temperate, boreal, and Arctic regions
Ueyama et al., Global Change Biology, 10.1111/gcb.16594

Peatlands and their carbon dynamics in northern high latitudes from 1990 to 2300: a process-based biogeochemistry model analysis
Zhao & Zhuang Zhuang Zhuang, Biogeosciences, Open Access pdf 10.5194/bg-20-251-2023

Tropical forests post-logging are a persistent net carbon source to the atmosphere
Mills et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 10.1073/pnas.2214462120

Decarbonization

A review of renewable energy based power supply options for telecom towers
Deevela et al., Environment, Development and Sustainability, Open Access pdf 10.1007/s10668-023-02917-7

A submillimeter bundled microtubular flow battery cell with ultrahigh volumetric power density
Wu et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 10.1073/pnas.2213528120

Bioelectrochemical technologies for simultaneous treatment of dye wastewater and electricity generation: a review
Uduma et al., International Journal of Environmental Science and Technology, 10.1007/s13762-022-04753-0

Construction of Hierarchical PdAgAu Nanorings/MXene–GO Electrocatalysts for Efficient and Ultrastable Hydrogen Evolution Reaction
Sun et al., Advanced Energy and Sustainability Research, Open Access 10.1002/aesr.202200194

Design and economic analysis of an on-site electrolytic medical oxygen and solar electricity production system in a sunny country
Edouma Fils et al., Energy for Sustainable Development, 10.1016/j.esd.2023.01.002

Do solar photovoltaic clean development mechanism projects contribute to sustainable development in Latin America? Prospects for the Paris Agreement
Ottonelli et al., Energy Policy, 10.1016/j.enpol.2023.113428

Electric vehicle batteries alone could satisfy short-term grid storage demand by as early as 2030
Xu et al., Nature Communications, Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-022-35393-0

Energy- and carbon-efficient CO2/CO electrolysis to multicarbon products via asymmetric ion migration–adsorption
Ozden et al., Nature Energy, 10.1038/s41560-022-01188-2

Extending urban energy transitions to the mid-tier: Insights into energy efficiency from the management of HVAC maintenance in ‘mid-tier’ office buildings
Daly et al., Energy Policy, 10.1016/j.enpol.2022.113415

Formation of hierarchically ordered structures in conductive polymers to enhance the performances of lithium-ion batteries
Zhu et al., Nature Energy, 10.1038/s41560-022-01176-6

Going offshore or not: Where to generate hydrogen in future integrated energy systems?
, Physics Today, Open Access 10.1063/pt.4.0633

Historical wind power in Karnataka differs from predictive models: A granular analysis of performance across climatology, technology, and location
Schwarz & Tongia, Energy for Sustainable Development, 10.1016/j.esd.2022.12.009

Lithiated metallic molybdenum disulfide nanosheets for high-performance lithium–sulfur batteries
Li et al., Nature Energy, 10.1038/s41560-022-01175-7

New Pathways toward Sustainable Sn-Related Perovskite Solar Cells
Chang et al., Advanced Energy and Sustainability Research, Open Access 10.1002/aesr.202200175

Optimizing Various Operational Conditions of Hydrazine Single Cell for a Short Stack System
Park & Lee, Advanced Energy and Sustainability Research, Open Access 10.1002/aesr.202200188

Physics-guided co-designing flexible thermoelectrics with techno-economic sustainability for low-grade heat harvesting
Zhou et al., Science Advances, 10.1126/sciadv.adf5701

Recent advances in material chemistry for zinc enabled redox flow batteries
Zhao et al., Carbon Neutralization, Open Access 10.1002/cnl2.43

Resilience management processes in the offshore wind industry: schematization and application to an export-cable attack
Köpke et al., Environment Systems and Decisions, Open Access pdf 10.1007/s10669-022-09893-9

Solar for renters: Investigating investor perspectives of barriers and policies
Hammerle et al., Energy Policy, Open Access 10.1016/j.enpol.2023.113417

State or market: Investments in new nuclear power plants in France and their domestic and cross-border effects
, Public Health Economics, Open Access 10.1177/107755874600301003

The other benefit of electric vehicles
Stadler et al., 2011 IEEE Vehicle Power and Propulsion Conference, Open Access pdf 10.1109/vppc.2011.6043044

The role of regulation in geothermal energy in the UK
McClean & Pedersen, Energy Policy, Open Access 10.1016/j.enpol.2022.113378

Wormlike Perovskite Oxide Coupled with Phase-Change Material for All-Weather Solar Evaporation and Thermal Storage Applications
Irshad et al., Advanced Energy and Sustainability Research, Open Access 10.1002/aesr.202200158

Geoengineering climate

Climate response to off-equatorial stratospheric sulfur injections in three Earth system models – Part 1: Experimental protocols and surface changes
Visioni et al., Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Open Access pdf 10.5194/acp-23-663-2023

High-latitude stratospheric aerosol injection to preserve the Arctic
Lee et al., Earth's Future, Open Access 10.1029/2022ef003052

Black carbon

Revised historical Northern Hemisphere black carbon emissions based on inverse modeling of ice core records
Eckhardt et al., Nature Communications, Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-022-35660-0

Aerosols

Air-stagnation episodes based on regional climate models part I: evaluation over Europe
Van Nieuwenhuyse et al., Climate Dynamics, 10.1007/s00382-023-06665-2

Climate change communications & cognition

Climate change framing and innovator attention: Evidence from an email field experiment
Guzman et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 10.1073/pnas.2213627120

Climate Storylines
Bukovsky et al., Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Open Access pdf 10.1175/bams-d-22-0224.1

Don’t Talk Climate Like This: Exploring the Moderating Effects of Comment Stance on Aggressive Climate Change Videos
Yuan & Lu, Environmental Communication, 10.1080/17524032.2023.2165524

Polarisation vs consensus-building: how US and German news media portray climate change as a feature of political identities
Tschötschel, Environmental Politics, Open Access pdf 10.1080/09644016.2022.2164410

Two cheers for collapse? On the uses and abuses of the societal collapse thesis for imagining Anthropocene futures
Davidson, Environmental Politics, Open Access 10.1080/09644016.2022.2164238

Agronomy, animal husbundry, food production & climate change

Climate change adaptation behaviour of forest growers in New Zealand: an application of protection motivation theory
Villamor et al., Climatic Change, Open Access pdf 10.1007/s10584-022-03469-x

Concurrent Precipitation Extremes Modulate the Response of Rice Transplanting Date to Preseason Temperature Extremes in China
Liu et al., Earth's Future, 10.1029/2022ef002888

Correction to: Evaluating rice yield and adaptation strategies under climate change based on the CSM-CERES-Rice model: a case study for northern Iran
Darikandeh et al., Theoretical and Applied Climatology, Open Access pdf 10.1007/s00704-023-04359-7

Decadal spatio-temporal dynamics of drought in semi-arid farming regions of Zimbabwe between 1990 and 2020: a case of Mberengwa and Zvishavane districts
Mupepi & Matsa Matsa, Theoretical and Applied Climatology, Open Access 10.1007/s00704-022-04327-7

Optimized rice adaptations in response to heat and cold stress under climate change in southern China
Zhang et al., Regional Environmental Change, 10.1007/s10113-022-02010-1

Organic agriculture in a low-emission world: exploring combined measures to deliver sustainable food system in Sweden
Basnet et al., Sustainability Science, Open Access pdf 10.1007/s11625-022-01279-9

Traditional crops and climate change adaptation: insights from the Andean agricultural sector
Arias Montevechio et al., Climate and Development, 10.1080/17565529.2022.2151307

Hydrology, hydrometeorology & climate change

Analysis of drought characteristics and trends during 1965–2020 in the Tigris River basin, Turkey
Gumus et al., Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 10.1007/s00704-023-04363-x

Assessment of climate change impacts on the hydrological response of a watershed in the savanna region of sub-Saharan Africa
Animashaun et al., Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 10.1007/s00704-023-04372-w

Convective precipitation over a Mediterranean area: From identification to trend analysis starting from high-resolution rain gauges data
Treppiedi et al., International Journal of Climatology, Open Access pdf 10.1002/joc.7758

Extreme hourly precipitation characteristics of Mainland China from 1980 to 2019
Wang et al., International Journal of Climatology, 10.1002/joc.8012

Flood Increase and Drought Mitigation Under a Warming Climate in the Southern Tibetan Plateau
Shao et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 10.1029/2022jd037835

High resolution SnowModel simulations reveal future elevation-dependent snow loss and earlier, flashier surface water input for the Upper Colorado River Basin
Hammond et al., Earth's Future, 10.1029/2022ef003092

Moisture changes with increasing summer precipitation in Qilian and Tienshan mountainous areas
Ma et al., Atmospheric Science Letters, Open Access 10.1002/asl.1154

Separation and attribution of impacts of changes in land use and climate on hydrological processes
Polong et al., Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 10.1007/s00704-022-04351-7

Climate change economics

Do the globalization and imports of capital goods from EU, US and China determine the use of renewable energy in developing countries?
Liu et al., Carbon Management, Open Access 10.1080/17583004.2023.2165162

Renewable energy creditors versus renewable energy debtors: Seeking a pattern in a sustainable energy transition during the climate crisis
Kazak et al., The Anthropocene Review, 10.1177/20530196221149111

What factors contribute to the extent of decoupling economic growth and energy carbon emissions in China?
Xie et al., Energy Policy, 10.1016/j.enpol.2023.113416

Climate change mitigation public policy research

A European-wide exploratory study to analyse the relationship between training and energy efficiency in the construction sector
Barbero et al., Environment Systems and Decisions, Open Access pdf 10.1007/s10669-022-09891-x

An analysis of the factors affecting Irish citizens’ willingness to invest in wind energy projects
Sirr et al., Energy Policy, 10.1016/j.enpol.2022.113364

Applying multilevel structural equation modeling to energy-saving behavior: The interaction of individual- and city-level factors
Long et al., Energy Policy, 10.1016/j.enpol.2023.113423

Assessment of low-carbon energy transitions policies for the energy demand sector of Cameroon
Ayuketah et al., Energy for Sustainable Development, 10.1016/j.esd.2022.12.014

By-production, emissions and abatement cost–climate benefit of HFC-23 in China's HCFC-22 plants
Xing-Chen et al., Advances in Climate Change Research, Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2023.01.003

Can regional integration reduce carbon intensity? Evidence from city cluster in China
Feng et al., Environment, Development and Sustainability, 10.1007/s10668-023-02932-8

Development of city-scale air pollutants and greenhouse gases emission inventory and mitigation strategies assessment: A case in Zhengzhou, Central China
Zhang et al., Urban Climate, 10.1016/j.uclim.2023.101419

Does climate policy uncertainty really affect corporate financialization?
Ren et al., Environment, Development and Sustainability, 10.1007/s10668-023-02905-x

Environmental information disclosure and energy efficiency: empirical evidence from China
Wang & Shao, Environment, Development and Sustainability, 10.1007/s10668-023-02910-0

Environmental, social, and governance disclosure in response to climate policy uncertainty: Evidence from US firms
Hoang, Environment, Development and Sustainability, 10.1007/s10668-022-02884-5

Exploring the influencing factors of urban residential electricity consumption in China
Hao et al., Energy for Sustainable Development, 10.1016/j.esd.2022.12.015

Increasing solar entitlement and decreasing energy vulnerability in a low-income community by adopting the Prosuming Project
Fox, Nature Energy, 10.1038/s41560-022-01169-5

Increasing voluntary enrollment in time-of-use electricity rates: Findings from a survey experiment
Lang et al., Energy Policy, 10.1016/j.enpol.2022.113410

Leaders or laggards in climate action? Assessing GHG trends and mitigation targets of global megacities
Brown, Oxford Music Online, Open Access 10.1093/gmo/9781561592630.article.16178

Taking control of energy as a solar prosumer
Middlemiss, Nature Energy, 10.1038/s41560-022-01174-8

Climate change adaptation & adaptation public policy research

A disaster-damage-based framework for assessing urban resilience to intense rainfall-induced flooding
Zhang et al., Urban Climate, Open Access 10.1016/j.uclim.2022.101402

From greening the climate-adaptive city to green climate gentrification? Civic perceptions of short-lived benefits and exclusionary protection in Boston, Philadelphia, Amsterdam and Barcelona
Planas-Carbonell et al., Urban Climate, Open Access 10.1016/j.uclim.2022.101295

Joint problem framing: a transdisciplinary methodology for a sustainable future in mountain areas
Pachoud et al., Sustainability Science, 10.1007/s11625-022-01285-x

Local governments as key agents in climate change adaptation: challenges and opportunities for institutional capacity-building in Mexico
Cid & Lerner, Climate Policy, 10.1080/14693062.2022.2163972

Planning for context-based climate adaptation: Flood management inquiry in Accra
Gaisie & Cobbinah, Environmental Science & Policy, Open Access 10.1016/j.envsci.2023.01.002

Understanding uncertainties in contemporary and future extreme wave events for broad-scale impact and adaptation planning
Morim et al., Science Advances, 10.1126/sciadv.ade3170

Urban risks due to climate change in the Andean municipality of Pasto, Colombia: A Bayesian network approach
Ortega Chamorro & Cañón Barriga, Risk Analysis, 10.1111/risa.14086

Climate change impacts on human health

Multifaceted characteristics of summer heat and affected population across China under climate change
Feng et al., Climate Dynamics, 10.1007/s00382-023-06671-4

Responses to heat waves: what can Twitter data tell us?
Zander et al., Natural Hazards, Open Access pdf 10.1007/s11069-023-05824-2

Spatiotemporal characteristics of human thermal comfort across southern Africa: an analysis of the Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI) for 1971–2021
Roffe et al., International Journal of Climatology, 10.1002/joc.8009

Uncovering social and environmental factors that increase the burden of climate-sensitive diarrheal infections on children
Dimitrova et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 10.1073/pnas.2119409120

Climate change & geopolitics

Exploring U.S.–China Climate cooperation through linked carbon markets
LI et al., Advances in Climate Change Research, Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2023.01.005

Other

Challenging the values of the polluter elite: A global consequentialist response to Evensen and Graham's (2022) ‘The irreplaceable virtues of in-person conferences’
Whitmarsh & Kreil, Journal of Environmental Psychology, 10.1016/j.jenvp.2022.101881

Climate-driven changes of global marine mercury cycles in 2100
Wang et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 10.1073/pnas.2202488120

Tonga eruption increases chance of temporary surface temperature anomaly above 1.5 °C
Jenkins et al., Nature Climate Change, 10.1038/s41558-022-01568-2

Tracking artificial intelligence in climate inventions with patent data
Verendel, Nature Climate Change, Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41558-022-01536-w

Informed opinion, nudges & major initiatives

Carbon for soils, not soils for carbon
Masciandaro et al., The Future of Soil Carbon, Open Access 10.1016/b978-0-12-811687-6.00001-8

Climate change and informal workers: Towards an agenda for research and practice
Dodman et al., Urban Climate, Open Access 10.1016/j.uclim.2022.101401

Methane possible
, Nature Climate Change, Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41558-022-01590-4

Powering the next wave of green energy innovation
Popp & Grégoire-Zawilski, PLOS Climate, Open Access pdf 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000119

Recognizing the dark side of sustainability transitions
McGowan & Antadze, Journal of Environmental Studies and Sciences, 10.1007/s13412-023-00813-0

Science-based targets
Yan, Nature Climate Change, Open Access 10.1038/s41558-022-01581-5

Articles/Reports from Agencies and Non-Governmental Organizations Addressing Aspects of Climate Change

Global Water Monitor. 2022 Summary Report, Van Dijk et al., Global Water Monitor

The authors present information on rainfall, air temperature and humidity, soil water availability, river flows and storage in natural and artificial lakes in 2022. Trends in the water cycle and some of the most important hydrological events of 2022 are interpreted and discussed. The global water cycle was dominated by warmer-than-average ocean waters in the western Pacific Ocean and cool waters in the east, combined with a negative Indian Ocean Dipole, with relatively warm sea water in the eastern and northern Indian Ocean and cool water in the west. Global precipitation - averaged over the year and the land area - was very close to average values around 2000. However, the last two decades have seen increased air temperatures and declining air humidity, increasing heat stress and water requirements for people, crops and ecosystems alike.

Voices that Matter. Boston Area Residents of Color Discuss Climate Change, Estrada-Martínez et al., University of Massachusetts Boston

Racial and ethnic inequalities in climate impacts have become increasingly apparent. The author's work has further indicated a strong relationship between negative consequences, the ability to respond to climate change, and the racial makeup of communities dealing with or preparing to deal with those impacts. In short, the burden falls heaviest on people of color. The authors amplify the voices of Greater Boston’s Asian American, Black, Latino, and Native American residents of color, who often provided deeply personal insights on climate change in focus group discussions. Although the COVID-19 pandemic caused considerable delays in the timing and structure of these discussions, the opportunity to build upon the phase one comprehensive survey of residents completed earlier has proven to be crucial.

ESG Boycott Legislation in States: Municipal Bond Market Impact, Econsult Solutions, The Sunrise Project

In more than a dozen states across the country, state legislatures have either passed or have pending bills based on a piece of model legislation developed by the American Legislative Exchange Council known as the “Energy Discrimination Elimination Act.” These bills would essentially pull state funds from investment managers if they are deemed by government officials to be adverse to the oil and gas and coal industries in their investment strategies. Some of the same states–in addition to many others–are considering bills that would similarly punish or blacklist financial firms for including having strong Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) standards in their investment strategies. Among many key unknowns associated with these legislative and executive actions impact the residents and taxpayers of the states where they become law. Setting aside the implications of politics interfering in financial decisions, there is the question of how removing major, proven financial companies from the marketplace will affect competition. Restrictions on financial market participants, (and in this analysis, the authors look at large investment banks), alter the outcomes of municipal bond market transactions and modify contractual engagements with state governments. It is therefore of tremendous importance that policymakers, business leaders, and the public have the tools to estimate and anticipate these impacts. The authors perform an econometric analysis of Texas to provide estimates of the potential impacts on state and local municipal bond markets of certain state legislative initiatives restricting consideration of climate-related and other sustainability risks and opportunities on state and local municipal bond markets in other states. The author's analysis focuses on the municipal bond market impacts of ESG boycotts actions, applied to six states: Florida, Kentucky, Louisiana, Missouri, Oklahoma, and West Virginia.

CO2 emissions from private flights to the World Economic Forum, Jasper Faber and Sander Raphaë, Greenpeace International

The annual meeting of the World Economic Forum (WEF) in Davos brings together leaders from government, business, and civil society to address the state of the world and discuss priorities for the year ahead. In 2023, the number of participants is expected to exceed 2,500 many of whom will charter private flights to get to the venue. Private flights have significantly higher emissions per passenger than any other standard mode of transport. Private jets are 5 to 14 times more polluting per passenger than commercial flights and 50 times more polluting than trains. Some private jets emit two tonnes of CO2 per hour, while the carbon footprint of inhabitants of the EU-27 was equal to 6.8 tonnes per person in 2019. The authors analyze private flights associated with the WEF 2022 which was held from 22 May 2022 until 26 May 2022. It estimates the number of flights, their fuel use, and CO2 emissions during the event.

Forestry-Backed AssetsDesign, Biffis et al., Imperial College Business School

The inherent heterogeneity and riskiness of forestry projects pose severe challenges to investors targeting narrowly defined risk-return profiles and lacking the expertise and resources to engage in effective project selection, thus hampering the ability of originators to deliver investable forestry assets to the market. The authors consider in detail security design mechanisms in relation to forestry projects bundled into forestry-backed securities. They focus on foundational concepts of forest aggregation, which should be of interest to any originator of forestry-linked securities. Once the mechanics of risk aggregation are well understood, it becomes relatively straightforward to tranche the forestry pool to deliver forestry-backed instruments with different yields depending on investors’ risk appetite. The authors devote attention to understanding the aggregation of forestry assets along different dimensions, separately and jointly. The main risk drivers they consider in their analysis are geography, forestry vintage, wildfire risk exposure, and carbon sequestration potential. They also provide examples of multidimensional project screening, taking into account biodiversity.

Voting Matters 2022. Are asset managers using their proxy votes for action on environmental and social issues?, Gray et al., ShareAction

The authors analyze how 68 of the world’s largest asset managers voted on 252 shareholder resolutions designed to address current environmental and social crises. They examine voting performance on environmental and social issues, and how it differs from their 2021 findings. For the first time, They also analyze shareholder-filed governance resolutions that directly relate to environmental and social issues, grouped together as Pay and Politics resolutions.

Identifying States That Will Benefit Most from Updated Building Energy Codes, Michael Waite, American Council for an Energy-Efficient Economy

States will soon have access to major federal investments to advance building energy codes. The Department of Energy (DOE) recently announced $45 million in competitive grants for Resilient and Efficient Codes Implementation (RECI). And there is much more to come: An eventual total of $225 million in funding over five years and $1 billion in funding to support state adoption of stronger energy codes in the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) is expected to become available in 2023. While all states’ residents and businesses would benefit from reducing building energy usage, states with older energy codes (or none at all) will see the biggest improvements in efficiency. But the overall impact of updating energy codes will also depend on other factors, such as a state’s existing building emissions and new construction activity. The author performed an analysis using publicly available data sources to identify the 10 states with statewide codes that are best positioned to take advantage of the upcoming funding: Louisiana, North Carolina, Minnesota, Virginia, Arkansas, Tennessee, South Carolina, Wisconsin, Kentucky, and Oklahoma. This also includes the five “home rule” states that scored similarly to these 10 but that have additional challenges because they lack statewide codes: Colorado, North Dakota, Wyoming, South Dakota, and Missouri.

U.S. National Blueprint for Transportation Decarbonization, US. Government

Nearly all greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions should be eliminated in the transportation sector by 2050. The U.S. needs a holistic strategy to achieve a future mobility system that is clean, safe, secure, accessible, affordable, and equitable and provides sustainable transportation options for people and goods. The Blueprint is the roadmap to address these issues to provide better transportation options, expand affordable and accessible options to improve efficiency, and transition to zero-emission vehicles and fuels. The Blueprint offers a whole-of-government approach to transform the transportation sector and sets forth an interagency call to action to coordinate and work effectively together.

A review of the first year of the Peer Review Network on Global Climate Litigation, Maria Antonia Tigre & Juan Sebastian Castellanos, Sabin Center for Climate Change Law

In December 2021, the Sabin Center launched the Peer Review Network of Global Climate Litigation, through which practitioners and scholars from the around the world act as “rapporteurs” for their jurisdictions, helping to update and maintain the Global Climate Change Litigation database. In its first year, the Network reviewed, analyzed, and updated multiple cases from the database and helped identify and add new cases from nearly 40 different jurisdictions. However, the work done by the rapporteurs and the discussions that arose from monthly meetings surpassed our expectations, leading to a wide range of outputs covering diverse topics within climate litigation through multiple mediums.

Pesticides and Climate Change: A Vicious Cycle, Sharma et al., Pesticide Action Network

Climate change is one of the greatest challenges facing humanity today. Scientific evidence indicates that pesticides contribute significantly to greenhouse gas emissions while also making agricultural systems more vulnerable to the effects of climate change. However, the reduction of synthetic pesticide use has been omitted from climate change solutions, and synthetic pesticide use is even presented as a climate change mitigation strategy by industrial agriculture interests. Pesticides contribute to climate change throughout their lifecycle via manufacturing, packaging, transportation, application, and even through environmental degradation and disposal. Importantly, 99% of all synthetic chemicals —including pesticides — are derived from fossil fuels, and several oil and gas companies play major roles in developing pesticide ingredients. Other chemical inputs in agriculture, such as nitrogen fertilizer, have rightly received significant attention due to their contributions to greenhouse gas emissions. Yet research has shown that the manufacture of one kilogram of pesticide requires, on average, about 10 times more energy than one kilogram of nitrogen fertilizer. Like nitrogen fertilizers, pesticides can also release greenhouse gas emissions after their application, with fumigant pesticides shown to increase nitrous oxide production in soils seven-to-eightfold. Obtaining articles without journal subscriptions

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Categories: I. Climate Science

Can induction stoves convince home cooks to give up gas?

Skeptical Science - Tue, 01/17/2023 - 14:00

This is a re-post from Yale Climate Connections by Sarah Wesseler

You walk into your kitchen to make pasta. After filling a pot with water, you place a small silicone mat in the middle of your counter, then set the pot above it and open a stovetop app on your phone. A short time later the water is boiling, although there’s no heat source in sight.

Sound like science fiction? The products that enable this scenario are available on the market today. Florida-based InvisaCook is one of several companies selling cooking hobs designed to be installed directly under porcelain or granite countertops, freeing up workspace in the kitchen and creating a clean, modern aesthetic.

“Invisible” cooktops rely on induction, a type of electric cooking technology that has attracted growing interest as gas stoves have come under scrutiny for contributing to climate change and dangerous indoor air pollution. Induction appliances use electricity to create an electromagnetic field beneath the cooking surface that transfers a current to pots and pans above, generating heat directly in the cookware.

Preparing food on an InvisaCook cooktop. (Image credit: InvisaCook)

With rave reviews from prominent food writers and chefs, induction represents a quantum leap ahead of the electric stoves most Americans are familiar with. With its fast cooking times, precise temperature control, easy cleanup, and exciting design possibilities (“invisible” stoves are just one of the induction cooktop models available on the market today), the technology is already established in Europe and Asia and seems destined to challenge gas stoves’ role as the appliance of choice for U.S. home cooks.

“As a culinary appliance, it’s superior in most ways to gas,” said Jeffery Liang, who helps Bay Area households go electric at BayREN, a coalition of Bay Area municipal governments focused on energy and resource efficiency.

But at Yale Appliance, a high-end Massachusetts retailer, the buzz around induction hasn’t yet translated to the sales floor. According to CEO Steve Sheinkopf, Boston is still a gas market.

“I am a big fan of induction, but the switch hasn’t been as pronounced as you would think.”

“There are barriers to converting from gas to induction, and they’re significant for a lot of people,” he said.

A growing support ecosystem is helping homeowners overcome these barriers, but more remains to be done.

The advantages of induction stoves and cooktops for climate change

A large-scale shift to induction would go a long way toward reducing heat-trapping greenhouse gas emissions. Researchers estimate that annual methane leaks from gas stoves in U.S. homes warm the climate by an amount similar to the CO2 emissions of half a million cars.

The Advanced Energy Center allows local residents to borrow a portable induction hob and compatible cookware for two-week home test runs. (Image credit: Sonoma Clean Power)

More importantly, gas-powered kitchens often act as a barrier to broader home electrification, said Chad Asay, director of the Advanced Energy Center, a demonstration space for climate-friendly home technologies in Santa Rosa, California. Many American homes rely on three categories of gas-powered appliances: stoves, water heaters, and HVAC equipment. Gas water heaters and HVAC equipment have a larger climate impact than gas stoves, and homeowners are typically open to considering swapping them out for more-efficient electric models.

But kitchen equipment is another story. Since many people can’t envision giving up their gas stoves, their gas lines remain connected, and fossil fuel-powered water heaters and HVAC appliances stay online longer than they otherwise might.

“Really, the cooking is the crux,” Asay said. “If you get people to understand that it’s not hard to get off of gas in cooking, the rest of living an all-electric lifestyle is very easy for them to understand.”

Read: Checklist: How to take advantage of brand-new clean energy tax credits

And that all-electric lifestyle could be a boon to the climate: As consumers move away from highly polluting furnaces, home appliances, and cars in favor of newer, cleaner technology that runs on electricity, heat-trapping pollution from homes will fall.

Shifting American households away from gas appliances will also bring substantial public health benefits. Gas stoves leak dangerous toxins like nitrogen dioxide and benzene into the surrounding air, leading to an increased risk of respiratory disease, cancer, and other illnesses. A recent study published in the International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health found that gas stoves are responsible for 12.7% of current childhood asthma cases in the United States.

A middling marketplace

The Advanced Energy Center is run by the nonprofit power provider for California’s Sonoma and Mendocino counties with financial support from the California Energy Commission, which sets state energy policy. As a publicly funded, mission-driven organization, it’s dedicated to connecting residents with climate-friendly products, including induction stoves.

But the private sector hasn’t rushed to highlight this segment of the appliance market. According to Yale Appliance’s Sheinkopf, American stove manufacturers haven’t seemed particularly enthusiastic about the technology. “To give you an idea, on Black Friday, when a lot of things are promoted, I [could] only find one induction range that [was] being promoted.”

Retailers have also lagged on this front. Asay said no local companies took him up on his offer when he approached them about showcasing their induction offerings at the Advanced Energy Center in 2020. In-store displays reflected similar levels of apathy.

“In one of the stores, I went to find [the] induction demonstrations, and they were covered by all of the boxes of supplies for other devices,” he said. “Another store that I approached had no inductions to display at all.”  

Asay believes the American appliance industry will embrace induction once consumer demand rises to levels seen elsewhere. “They’ll believe it after it’s been proven — even though it’s being proven in other countries.”

Myths about induction cooktops and ranges

Consumer hesitation about induction often has little to do with induction itself, according to Noah Cordoba, kitchen electrification coordinator at the Building Decarbonization Coalition. Instead, the root cause is frequently a fear of giving up natural gas —which many people don’t even realize is a fossil fuel.

But Americans’ emotional connection to gas is rooted in misleading marketing, he said. “[It was] generated by multi-decadal gas industry campaigns that have been telling people that ‘hashtag, cooking with gas’ is going to make your food taste better and make you a better cook.”

Another problem is the lack of information about induction. Many Americans still don’t hear much about induction, and when they do, the messages aren’t always accurate.

Do you need new pans to use induction?

One common myth holds that induction requires purchasing an entirely new set of cookware, which is typically not the case, said Cordoba; if a magnet sticks to a pot or pan, it will work with induction.

Another misconception is that culinary techniques like searing, browning, frying, and cooking with a wok require the presence of fire. But this is also “luckily not true,” he said. “All induction is doing is heating the pan, and all gas is doing is heating the pan … So it’s all possible.”

Induction is also frequently confused with more familiar electric technologies, coil and radiant, that have left a bad taste in American mouths. According to Sam D’Amico, CEO of induction startup Impulse, this confusion is perpetuated by the fact that most induction cooktops look identical to their radiant counterparts. “In some sense, there’s been brand damage done to induction by the fact that the industrial design converges with radiant electric,” he said.

How expensive is induction?

One real downside of induction is the upfront cost. At the time of writing, Consumer Reports recommends several gas ranges costing around $600, but most of its induction picks start at well over this amount. Induction boosters say that less expensive models will become available as the U.S. induction market grows, but timelines are unclear.

Upgrading a home’s electric wiring to enable the addition of a new 220-volt appliance can also be expensive — in some cases, more expensive than the stove itself.

“Let’s say maybe you have a 200-amp panel but your stove has gas — it’s maybe a couple hundred bucks, because you just need to get a new wire drop installed,” said Impulse’s D’Amico. “The situation where you maybe need to upgrade your panel, [but] your service connection is good enough . . . then it’s like $3,000 bucks.” Extreme scenarios — for example, if an older home’s existing electric conduit is too narrow to accommodate a larger service connection, forcing the owners to dig up the front lawn to install new wiring — could cost upward of $10,000, he said.

To get around this issue, Impulse and another Bay Area startup, Channing Street Copper Company, have developed induction stoves with integrated batteries that allow them to be plugged into standard 110-volt outlets. Thanks to the batteries, the stoves can also serve as home energy storage.

Venture capital–backed startup Impulse is developing an induction cooktop with an integrated battery. (Image credit: Impulse)

Impulse is targeting the high end of the market with its initial product, which it plans to launch this year. D’Amico said many households should be able to get one for significantly less than the sticker price by combining different government rebates and tax credits.

The Inflation Reduction Act marks the first time the federal government is getting involved in stove electrification, and the financial incentives could be a game-changer. Starting later this year, low- and moderate-income Americans will be eligible for rebates of up to $840 for new electric cooking appliances, along with up to $2,500 for electric wiring and $4,000 for breaker box improvements.

Many California residents can access additional funds. Since 2020, BayREN has offered rebates for residents replacing gas stoves with induction; this year, homeowners will be eligible for $750. BayREN’s Jeffery Liang said that the induction rebate uptake has increased by approximately 300% over the past year, driven in part by outreach efforts like webinars featuring cooking demonstrations by Michelin-starred chefs. 

The Advanced Energy Center offers additional $500 rebates for induction stoves, sweetening the deal with a free set of cookware.

Uneven access

Such programs give Bay Area homeowners access to a wide range of information and personalized assistance with the transition to induction. But in much of the country, the induction-curious have access to fewer resources. While groups like the Building Decarbonization Coalition, Rewiring America, and Yale Appliance provide helpful online resources, it can be difficult for many Americans to find induction stoves to view in person or get help understanding which incentives they qualify for.

In Columbus, Ohio, environmental lawyer Madeline Fleisher recently cofounded a community organization, Electrify Central Ohio, to help people in the region learn about induction and other aspects of home decarbonization. Her own experience convinced her of the need. “As a consumer starting to look into this stuff, I was like, ‘I don’t know what I’m doing and I need help,’” she said. “And it wasn’t there.”

She said that while a number of Ohio municipalities have progressive energy policies, stoves haven’t been a priority. “And then there’s just, as of yet, maybe not that critical mass of consumer interest where you go to your Lowe’s or whatever and there’s someone there who would give you the tap dance about induction cooking,” she noted.

Exacerbating this geographical unevenness, Inflation Reduction Act rebates will be administered by state energy offices, which have significant leeway to interpret the act in different ways. They can even choose not to offer rebates.

“The only states that are going to get this money are the states that apply for it,” said Noah Cordoba of the Building Decarbonization Coalition. “There may be states that choose not to apply for this money because of political reasons, or because maybe the state just doesn’t have the bandwidth at the energy office level to do it.” Several organizations are working to help states that lack those resources, he said.

Regardless of which state they live in, Americans will likely see improved access to induction in the coming years thanks to clean energy pushes in liberal areas, as well as greater scrutiny of gas stoves at the federal level.

Yale Appliance’s Sheinkopf believes that the bans on gas in new construction projects that have been implemented in cities across the country —not to mention California’s recent law banning the sale of gas water heaters and HVAC equipment starting in 2030—will force the American appliance industry to take induction seriously.

At the national level, the U.S. Consumer Product Safety Commission has also pledged to consider new regulations on gas stoves, even floating the prospect of banning them altogether.

“It’s not a matter of adoption, it’s a matter of legislation,” Sheinkopf said. “In order to sell products, you’ve got to either conform or not sell, right? So I think that’s going to be one of the main drivers for induction in the future.”

Categories: I. Climate Science

Explainer: Can the world ‘halt and reverse’ biodiversity loss by 2030?

The Carbon Brief - Mon, 01/16/2023 - 08:49

Last month, 196 countries including the EU member states agreed to a new global mission to “halt and reverse” biodiversity loss by 2030.

Agreement was reached at the end of a turbulent two-week UN summit (explained in detail by Carbon Brief), where nations clashed over issues including the need for new funds from developed countries to protect and restore the world’s remaining biodiversity.

Biodiversity is currently declining at the fastest rate observed in human history.

The “framework” aims to reverse this decline through a number of wide-ranging targets for 2030, from protecting 30% of Earth’s land and seas and halting human-induced species extinctions through to cutting the risk from pesticides by half and slashing subsidies harmful to nature by $500bn annually.

The previous global attempt to address biodiversity loss ended in failure. It is clear, say experts, that meeting the new targets will require international cooperation and new financial support on a scale that has never been achieved at UN biodiversity talks before.

And, if countries move as fast as possible to meet these targets, is it even possible – scientifically speaking – namely, to halt and reverse biodiversity loss in just seven years?

In this explainer, Carbon Brief speaks to scientists and examines the latest evidence to explore whether the world’s goal to reverse biodiversity loss by 2030 can be achieved – and, if so, how.

What was agreed at the UN biodiversity summit?

Part two of the UN biodiversity summit COP15 took place from 7-19 December in Montreal, Canada. (Part one of COP15 took place in a hybrid (in-person and virtual) format in Kunming, China in October 2021.)

It came two years later than scheduled after being delayed multiple times due to the Covid-19 lockdowns in China, the presiding country. The summit was moved to Montreal in Canada, where the UN’s biodiversity secretariat is headquartered, amid continuing Covid-19 restrictions in China, with the former country acting as “host” and the latter as “president”.

The summit saw countries agree to the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework (GBF), an expansive list of four goals and 23 targets with an overall mission of halting and reversing biodiversity loss by 2030, plus achieving “harmony with nature” by 2050.

The GBF has been likened to the “Paris Agreement for nature”, with some comparing the 2030 goal of halting and reversing biodiversity loss to the 1.5C temperature aspiration. However, unlike the Paris Agreement, the GBF has no legally binding elements.

“Halting and reversing biodiversity loss by 2030 is the equivalent of 1.5C – and has the ability & power to inspire & unite the whole of society,” @WWF_DG in his final press briefing

He briefly gets emotional, saying he can look his granddaughter in eyes knowing this is in text pic.twitter.com/b5JfcG8NQW

— Daisy Dunne (@daisydunnesci) December 19, 2022

(For a full breakdown of COP15 and the GBF, see Carbon Brief’s in-depth reporting from Montreal.)

COP 15 President Huang Runqiu, Minister of Ecology and Environment, China, 20 December 2022. Credit: Photo by IISD / Mike Muzurakis. Why does the world need to ‘halt and reverse’ biodiversity loss by 2030?

In 2019 – shortly before COP15 was originally due to take place – a landmark report released by the world’s biodiversity authority, the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES), found that 1m animal and plant species now face extinction. This is more than at any other point in human history.

A separate report, released by the UN Convention to Combat Desertification in 2022, found that human activities have already altered 70% of Earth’s land, degrading up to 40% of it. A 2018 study found that humans have also altered 87% of the ocean.

Across the world, populations of mammals, birds, amphibians, reptiles and fish decreased by an average of 68% between 1970 and 2016, according to a 2022 WWF report. In tropical central and South America, animal populations fell by 94% over this period.

Adult capybara with young in Porto Jofre, Mato Grosso, Pantanal, Brazil. Credit: Blue Planet Archive / Alamy Stock Photo.

This scale of biodiversity loss has consequences for human populations, too.

An estimated $44tn – roughly half the world’s annual economic output – is currently being put at risk by the depletion of natural resources.

The loss of coastal habitats that provide a natural buffer against extreme weather events means that 100-300 million people are currently at an increased risk of floods and hurricanes, according to IPBES.

And the loss of pollinators, specifically, is already causing nearly 430,000 deaths every year by reducing the supply of healthy food, according to a study published in 2022.

Countries previously aimed to tackle biodiversity loss by 2020 through the Aichi targets, a set of global nature rules agreed in 2010. However, every one of these ended in collective failure.

Towards the end of the last decade – as it became clear that the Aichi targets were likely to fail – a flurry of research papers were published examining what it would take to “bend the curve” on biodiversity loss.

Among the most influential was a commentary led by the late pioneering biodiversity scientist Prof Georgina Mace, which urged countries to “clearly specify the goal for biodiversity recovery” in their post-2020 agreement for nature, “analogous to the [UN climate change] 1.5-2C target”.

On biodiversity loss, Mace and her team wrote:

“This declining trend must not only be halted but also reversed.”

Such scientific papers fuelled a new political effort to make 2020 a “super year for nature”, with the goal of convincing country leaders to sign up to a clear goal for reversing biodiversity loss.

The aim was to see biodiversity loss take centre stage at the UN climate summit COP26 in Glasgow, the UN nature summit COP15 and a UN review of the Sustainable Development Goals, among other international meetings. However, the emergence of the Covid-19 pandemic delayed these summits from taking place and forced political attention away from nature in the short term.

Despite this, the year 2020 did see leaders from 94 countries sign up to the Leaders Pledge for Nature at a UN summit on biodiversity held during the UN General Assembly in September. This pledge contained a commitment to reversing biodiversity loss by 2030.

When COP26 finally took place in 2021, 145 countries signed the Glasgow Leaders’ Declaration on Forests and Land Use. This included a pledge to reverse forest loss by 2030 – a key component for reducing biodiversity loss. (However, some countries – such as rainforest nation Indonesia – distanced themselves from the pledge in the wake of the summit.)

Panel view during the first session of the Special Event on Forests and Land Use, 2 November 2021. Credit: Photo by IISD/ENB Mike Muzurakis.

Ahead of COP15 in December 2022, a group of countries including Australia, Canada, the EU, Nepal, New Zealand, Norway, Switzerland and the UK had signalled that including the mission to halt and reverse biodiversity loss in the GBF was a high priority for them.

In contrast, countries including Argentina, Bolivia, South Africa and Uganda had indicated that they opposed the inclusion of such a mission in the GBF. (For more on countries’ positions, see Carbon Brief’s guide to who wanted what at COP15.)

In the end, the mission to halt and reverse biodiversity loss by 2030 was included in the final version of the GBF.

What will it take to ‘halt and reverse’ biodiversity loss by 2030?

Carbon Brief has spoken to a range of scientists about whether, in their view, it would be possible to halt and reverse biodiversity loss by the end of this decade.

They unanimously agree that – scientifically speaking – meeting this target will be a large challenge.

Dr Nathalie Pettorelli, from the Zoological Society of London’s Institute of Zoology, tells Carbon Brief:

“It’s huge. It’s huge because of the scale at which we need to think here and some of the challenges that we’re faced with. [There is] a lot of discussion in the scientific community as to how to [digest] this.”

Prof EJ Milner-Gulland, director of the Interdisciplinary Centre for Conservation Science at the University of Oxford, led a letter published near the end of COP15 that was signed by more than 3,300 researchers in 130 countries urging nations to act to reverse biodiversity loss by 2030.

She agrees that meeting this goal will be challenging, telling Carbon Brief:

“It’s a very ambitious target. It’s going to be hard to make it.”

There are lots of reasons why reversing biodiversity loss is tough.

While many people associate “biodiversity” with iconic species and tropical rainforests, the term actually covers the whole spectrum of Earth’s biological diversity, ranging from the organisation of genes within organisms to the communities of animals and plants that make up ecosystems.

Wild Snow Leopard in Ladakh, India during winter. Credit: Stephan Tuengler / Alamy Stock Photo.

The complex nature of biodiversity makes it particularly difficult to measure and control, Milner-Gulland explains:

“Biodiversity isn’t fungible. Carbon is fungible – if you generate a unit of carbon here, you cannot generate a unit of carbon somewhere else. But if you lose a bit of biodiversity, you can’t add a bit of biodiversity somewhere else, it’s not the same thing. It’s not a currency that’s interchangeable.”

Biodiversity’s complexity also means that individual species and ecosystems will respond differently to actions taken to halt and reverse biodiversity loss.

A research paper published in 2009 found that some ecosystems can recover from major human disturbance “within decades”, but that others took “half-centuries”.

Dr David Obura, a biodiversity scientist and founding director of Coastal Oceans Research and Development, Indian Ocean (CORDIO) East Africa, tells Carbon Brief:

“Some biological systems, you can halt and reverse [the loss]. Others, you can’t get that reversal yet because they’re going to continue to decline for some time.”

He describes the rapid decline of the world’s tropical coral reefs as one example of such a system:

“Can we halt the loss of coral in the next seven years? We can’t, because of climate change. Even if we achieve the Paris Agreement aim of 1.5C, we’re still going to lose corals for the next 20 or 30 years.”

Tropical coral reef, Fiji, Pacific Ocean. Credit: Mark Conlin / Alamy Stock Photo.

Such realities give Obura pause about the possibility of reversing biodiversity loss by the end of the decade:

“As a scientist, whether we can achieve halting and reversing by 2030, I’m highly doubtful.”

But the scientists Carbon Brief spoke to were also united in saying that – with the consequences of further biodiversity loss likely to be catastrophic and action to date severely lacking – it was right for countries to agree to aim for an ambitious 2030 target.

Obura explains:

“For a political document like this, there has to be a time-bound [element]. So, in that sense, I think halt and reverse by 2030 is the right language to have, for sure.”

Adding to this, Milner-Gulland says:

“We’re not going to get the entire world’s biodiversity actually going into net gain by 2030, but there’s no reason why we couldn’t see elements of biodiversity starting to recover, and why we shouldn’t try to halt the loss by 2030. If we don’t, then we’re in trouble, aren’t we?

“It’s a difficult one because it’s hard to get governments, businesses and everyone [do something that is] the right level of ambition, but doable in principle. You don’t want to set yourself up to fail, but, at the same time, you don’t want to set a target that allows people to kick the can down the road.”

For Pettorelli, the question of whether halting and reversing biodiversity loss by 2030 is less about “a scientific consideration” and more about “belief in what society can do”. She says:

“Frankly, it’s a little bit like before Covid. Would you have thought that millions of people would have stayed in their homes for months? People would have said no – and then it happened. The limit of what we can achieve is constrained sometimes by our previous experience, but it needs to be inspired by what we could do.”

She adds that science can guide policymakers, but, ultimately, can’t deliver all the answers:

“Science is about giving a good idea of what’s likely under different scenarios, but humanity is in charge of defining which scenario it wants to go for.”

All of the scientists Carbon Brief spoke to were also keen to stress that – much like with climate change – the question of whether biodiversity loss can be reversed will largely be answered by the social, political and financial response by countries, rather than new science.

The GBF includes several targets that directly address the causes of biodiversity loss.

These include target 18, which addresses subsidies harmful to biodiversity (see: money for fossil fuels and large animal agriculture); target 7, which addresses pollution; and targets 5 and 9, which address the “sustainable use” of biodiversity.

How the world acts to realise these targets will be crucial for halting and reversing biodiversity loss, says Milner-Gulland:

“A lot of biodiversity loss is happening through our supply chains, our consumption in the west…So the stuff around reducing our consumption and production, halting damaging subsidies that are actually driving unsustainable use, those are really important.”

Prof Pete Smith, chair of plant and soil science at the University of Aberdeen, notes that action on many of these drivers would come with large co-benefits for tackling climate change. He tells Carbon Brief:

“There are a bunch of subsidies all around the world, on land and in the ocean, which provide financing for the over-exploitation of our resources. That has to stop and they need to be redirected into something that’s more sustainable.”

Milner-Gulland also notes the importance of the conservation targets laid out in the GBF, including a pledge to halt human-induced species extinction by 2030.

However, she adds that the much-publicised pledge to protect 30% of Earth’s land and seas by 2030 could actually be one of the least crucial targets for reversing biodiversity loss:

“We have to have protected areas, but it’s just not going to be enough on its own. The stuff that’s important is what’s happening outside of these protected areas – and actually happening to the protected areas – because of these drivers from overconsumption.”

Pettorelli notes that a proper plan for ensuring that the pledges laid out in the GBF are turned into concrete action will be crucial for halting and reversing biodiversity loss.

A lack of implementation was widely cited as one of the major factors behind the failure of the Aichi targets.

Details for how the GBF should be implemented – the so-called “teeth” of the deal – are contained within both the GBF itself and a separate document called “mechanisms for planning, monitoring, reporting and review”.

Carbon Brief understands that negotiations for these texts were long and complex, often running into the early hours of the morning throughout both weeks of the summit.

The agreed plan for how the GBF should be implemented by countries follows three key steps – sometimes referred to as “present, review, ratchet”. This is where countries are asked to present national plans for how they will meet the mission, targets goals of the GBF, countries come together in a designated year to review their progress and then are encouraged to increase their ambition.

These steps closely mirror the implementation process of the Paris Agreement. (See Carbon Brief’s summary of the GBF for more detail.)

For Obura, debates over biodiversity finance – deeply rooted in a history of inequity and colonialism by developed nations – are inseparable from the scientific question of halting and reversing biodiversity loss. He tells Carbon Brief:

“Equity is, I think, the main challenge because inequity is the main driver of where we are right now.

“That decline in biodiversity has come from resource consumption over centuries. And a lot of imperialism and colonialism and capitalism is driven by the consumption and the search for more raw materials – a lot of it from biodiversity – to use in accumulating wealth and development.

“It’s about repaying this biodiversity debt that has accrued over many years. And it’s a debt that’s being repaid to the south, as opposed to the south borrowing money and then being in debt to the north.”

(Read more about how biodiversity finance was discussed at COP15 in Carbon Brief’s GBF summary.)

Cropped 11 January 2023: Brazil under Lula; COP15 reaction; EU deforestation law

Nature

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11.01.23

Logged tropical forests are a ‘substantial’ carbon source for at least 10 years

Nature

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09.01.23

Cropped 21 December 2022: COP15 special edition

Nature

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21.12.22

COP15: Key outcomes agreed at the UN biodiversity conference in Montreal

Nature

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20.12.22

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The post Explainer: Can the world ‘halt and reverse’ biodiversity loss by 2030? appeared first on Carbon Brief.

Categories: I. Climate Science

New paper: Assessing ExxonMobil’s global warming projections

Skeptical Science - Mon, 01/16/2023 - 07:34

This is a quick summary about the newly published paper "Assessing ExxonMobil’s global warming projections" by Professor of Environmental Science and Policy Geoffrey Supran, Professor of Physics of the Oceans Stefan Rahmstorf and Professor of the History of Science Naomi Oreskes. It leverages a thread tweeted by Geoffrey Supran shortly after publication on January 12, 2023. Please note that the full paper will only be available open access for two weeks after publication.

The Abstract

Climate projections by the fossil fuel industry have never been assessed. On the basis of company records, we quantitatively evaluated all available global warming projections documented by—and in many cases modeled by—Exxon and ExxonMobil Corp scientists between 1977 and 2003. We find that most of their projections accurately forecast warming that is consistent with subsequent observations. Their projections were also consistent with, and at least as skillful as, those of independent academic and government models. Exxon and ExxonMobil Corp also correctly rejected the prospect of a coming ice age, accurately predicted when human-caused global warming would first be detected, and reasonably estimated the “carbon budget” for holding warming below 2°C. On each of these points, however, the company’s public statements about climate science contradicted its own scientific data.

Some Highlights

The peer-reviewed paper Supran et al. (2023) published in Science on January 12, 2023 shows Exxon scientists predicted global warming with shocking skill & accuracy between 1977 and 2003, contradicting the company's decades of climate denial. It is the first ever systematic assessment of an oil and gas company's climate projections.

The authors began by collecting every available global warming prediction reported by Exxon scientists in internal memos and peer-reviewed papers. This yielded 16 temperature projections from 1977-2003 in 12 graphs, shown here with subsequent *observed* temp changes overlaid in red.

Figure 1. Historically observed temperature change versus time (red) compared against global warming projections reported by ExxonMobil scientists in internal documents and peer-reviewed publications. Click image for larger version. (Full caption with details)

For example, below is a graph from a "proprietary" 1982 Exxon memo showing “an estimate of the average global temp increase” from 1960-2080 due to future fossil fuel burning. Overlaid are:

Blue = Observed CO2
Red = Observed temp change

Immediately, the overlap is striking.

Figure 2: Panel 3 from the composite shown in Figure 1 above from Glaser (1982, fig. 3) and Shaw (1984) showing growth of atmospheric CO2 and average global temperature increase as a function of time.

Next, the authors digitized all 16 global warming projections reported by Exxon scientists, and plotted them on one graph:

Gray = Exxon's predictions
Red = Observed temperature change

This, in a single image, is what #ExxonKnew:

Figure 3: (Fig.2 in the paper) Summary of all global warming projections (nominal scenarios) reported by ExxonMobil scientists in internal documents and peer-reviewed publications (gray lines), superimposed on historically observed temperature change (red). (Full caption with details)

The analysis allowed the authors, for the first time, to put a number on what #ExxonKnew: that burning coal, oil, and gas was going to heat the planet by 0.20° ± 0.04°C every decade.

And they were right on the money...

Using established IPCC statistical techniques to test the performance of Exxon’s temperature predictions in comparison to historical observations, the authors find that most of Exxon’s global warming forecasts were accurate (63-83%, depending on the metric used).

Figure 4: (Fig. 3 from the paper) Comparison of (red) historical temperature observations and (gray or black) global warming projections reported by ExxonMobil scientists in internal documents and peer-reviewed publications, as illustrated in Figs. 1 and 2. (Full caption with details)

Exxon's global warming projections were also CONSISTENT with, and AT LEAST AS SKILLFUL as, those of independent academic and government models. Here are the stats...

CONSISTENT: Exxon’s average projected warming (0.20° ± 0.04°C per decade) was, within uncertainty, the SAME as that of independent models (0.19° ± 0.03°C per decade).

SKILLFUL: Global warming projections modeled by Exxon scientists had an average ‘skill score’ of 72 ± 6%, with the highest scoring 99%.

For comparison, NASA scientist Dr. James Hansen’s predictions presented to US Congress in 1988 had skill scores of 38 to 66%.

Figure 5: Table 1 from paper - Skill scores of global warming projections reported by ExxonMobil scientists in internal documents and peer-reviewed publications.

Accounting for differences between forecast and observed atmospheric CO2 levels, the ‘skill score’ of projections modeled by Exxon scientists was 75 ± 5%, with seven projections scoring 85%+. Hansen’s 1988 projections had corresponding skill scores of 28 to 81%.).

The authors also show that Exxon scientists:

  1. Correctly rejected the prospect of a coming ice age.
  2. Accurately predicted when human-caused global warming would first be detectable.
  3. Reasonably estimated the ‘carbon budget’ for holding warming below 2°C.

In public, however, ExxonMobil contradicted each of these conclusions.

Here's ExxonMobil repeatedly exaggerating the uncertainties of climate science and modelling:

Figure 5: Box 2 from the paper - How ExxonMobil Corp exaggerated the uncertainties of climate science and modelling.

ExxonMobil has also often denigrated climate models. In 1999, CEO Lee Raymond said future climate “projections are based on completely unproven climate models, or, more often, sheer speculation.”

In 2013, CEO Rex Tillerson called climate models "not competent."

And here's Mobil and ExxonMobil cultivating the myth that in the 1970s, there was a scientific consensus that the planet was going to cool down rather than heat up:

Figure 6: Box 3 from the paper - How Mobil and ExxonMobil Corp cultivated the myth of a 1970s global cooling scientific consensus.

In sum, this study is #ExxonKnew2point0. It puts a number on, and paints a picture of, what #ExxonKnew, which is that burning fossil fuels would heat the planet by 0.20° ± 0.04°C per decade.

We now have airtight, statistically rigorous evidence that Exxon accurately predicted global warming years before it turned around and publicly attacked climate science and scientists.

In that sense, this graph (Figure 3 from above) doesn't just communicate a crisis, it confirms complicity.

Reference

Supran, G., Rahmstorf, S. & Oreskes, N. (2023). Assessing ExxonMobil’s global warming projections. Science. 379(6628). Article

Also see the 2019 Skeptical Science post: In 1982, Exxon accurately predicted global warming

Upon publication, the paper triggered a flurry of articles, some of which are listed below:

The Guardian - Revealed: Exxon made ‘breathtakingly’ accurate climate predictions in 1970s and 80s

BBC News - ExxonMobil: Oil giant predicted climate change in 1970s - scientists claim (and video)

New Scientist Podcast - Episode #158 Exxon's 1970s predictions for climate change were super accurate (17min)

Vice - ExxonMobil Accurately Predicted Today's Global Warming Decades Ago, Study Finds

Grist - Exxon’s models predicting climate change were spot on — 40 years ago

Truth out - Study Reveals Exxon Accurately Predicted Global Warming Decades Ago

CNBC - Exxon predicted global warming with remarkable accuracy years ago, study shows

NPR - Exxon climate predictions were accurate decades ago. Still it sowed doubt

Channel4 - New research reveals the extent of ExxonMobil’s secret knowledge of climate change nearly 50 years ago

Bill McKibben - Godalmighty, Exxon Knew Absolutely Everything

Categories: I. Climate Science

Exclusive Research Presentation: Carbon Tracker’s latest report on the British Power Market.

Carbon Tracker Initiative - Mon, 01/16/2023 - 07:28

2 February | Online

Recent extreme price spikes for the GB power market have triggered key discussions over whether the time has come for a shift in the way that electricity generation is traded and priced.

Join analysts Jonathan Sims and Sam Clissold for the chance to ask your questions on their latest report “Marginal Call – GB’s market design for a low-cost and clean electricity future”. This note provides a high-level assessment of the options available to the UK government for long-term power market design.

The report authors will present findings having modelled the impact on wholesale power prices of a potential market split that would see output from variable renewable technologies priced separately from that produced from dispatchable sources.

A panel discussion with market and policy experts will follow the presentation, with an opportunity to pose your questions to speakers.

The session will be chaired by Richard Folland, Carbon Tracker’s Senior Policy and Government Affairs Advisor.

The post Exclusive Research Presentation: Carbon Tracker’s latest report on the British Power Market. appeared first on Carbon Tracker Initiative.

Categories: I. Climate Science

International Energy Week 2023

Carbon Tracker Initiative - Mon, 01/16/2023 - 05:30

28 February – 2 March | London

Convened by the Energy Institute’s sector experts, International Energy Week 2023 is the global conference focused on transitioning out of the geopolitical and environmental crises facing energy.

Building on the renowned legacy of IP Week, the 2023 conference brings together senior figures from across the energy industry, investors, government, academia, and NGOs at a critical time.

International Energy Week is the essential annual fixture for those leading on corporate strategy, business development, and technological innovation, those wanting to retain a competitive edge, and anyone seeking insight into the great challenges facing humanity.

Amy Owens, Finance & Net Zero Energy Transition Research Associate at Carbon Tracker will be participating in the session: Debate: Investor Perspective on Winning in the Energy Transition

The post International Energy Week 2023 appeared first on Carbon Tracker Initiative.

Categories: I. Climate Science

2023 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #2

Skeptical Science - Sat, 01/14/2023 - 09:21
A chronological listing of news articles posted on the Skeptical Science Facebook Page during the past week: Sun, Jan 8, 2023  thru Sat, Jan 14, 2023. Story of the Week  Relentless Rise of Ocean Heat Content Drives Deadly Extremes

The heat of global warming will keep penetrating deeper into the oceans for centuries after greenhouse gas emissions cease.

Photo by William Bossen on Unsplash

Ocean heat content reached a new record high for the fourth year in a row, scientists said Wednesday as they released their annual measurements of ocean heat accumulating down to a depth of more than a mile.

The findings published in the journal Advances in Atmospheric Science show that just in the past year, the planet’s seas absorbed about 10 Zetta joules of heat—equivalent to 100 times the world’s total annual electricity production.

The scientists found that the warmth keeps working its way deeper into the ocean, as greenhouse gases have trapped so much heat that the oceans’ deeper waters will continue to warm for centuries after humans stop using fossil energy.

Oceans cover 71 percent of Earth’s surface and have absorbed more than 90 percent of the heat energy trapped by greenhouse gases since the start of the industrial age, dominating the global climate system. Measuring their temperature is one of the best ways to accurately track how Earth’s fever has kept rising since 2016, when the global average surface temperature peaked. 

Co-author John Fasullo, a climate scientist with the National Center for Atmospheric Research, said there are still open technical questions about the use of ocean heat content as a metric of climate change, “but our expectation is that ocean heat content more clearly resolves the march of climate change relative to other indices, such as surface temperature, which have more year to year variability.”

Click here to access the entire article as originally posted on the Inside Climate News website.

Relentless Rise of Ocean Heat Content Drives Deadly Extremes by Bob Berwyn, Science, Inside Climate News, Jan 11, 2023

Links posted on Facebook

Sun, Jan 8, 2023

Mon, Jan 9, 2023

Tue, Jan 10, 2023

Wed, Jan 11, 2023

Thu, Jan 12, 2023

Fri, Jan 13, 2023

Sat, Jan 14, 2023

Categories: I. Climate Science

Skeptical Science New Research for Week #2 2023

Skeptical Science - Thu, 01/12/2023 - 12:58
Open access notables 

The authors don't discuss it but folks who follow our GHG sources & sinks, flux, related geochemistry section will likely form some immediate connections from this paper and ask "what's this going to release?" Significant underestimation of peatland permafrost along the Labrador Sea coastline in northern Canada  just published in The Cryosphere exploits maximum value with maximum reliability from challenging data to sharply improve our acuity in inventorying key permafrost. The author team is lead by Yifeng Wang but we must note: the paper's second author is Skeptical Science's very own volunteer Robert Way. Proud! 

In this week's government/NGO reports section we find California’s Oil and Gas Workers: An analysis of the fossil fuel workforce, occupational transition opportunities, and State support for potentially impacted workers, assembled by the Gender Equality Policy InstituteBehind the frontlines of dealing with our climate problem are multiple echelons of subordinate components. We're looking at a systematic reweaving of economic patterns all while our machinery of economics must continue functioning.  Forgetting about big but not-so-obvious pieces will have negative feedback effects; let  us unleashing needless misery, omissions will leave large numbers of people high and dry, inevitably causing political friction and in turn costing time we can't afford. So while work like this may seem rather boring, it's absolutely key to our success. 

Planning any type of significant infrastructure? If those plans don't include the changes in geophysics we've triggered, they're incomplete and will lead to various failures and inefficiencies. Here's how that unfolds as illuminated by Basheer et al.: Negotiating Nile infrastructure management should consider climate change uncertainties

Becoming more conspicuous as our collective failures become more obvious: successful nation states employ layers of jurisdiction and governance, with their overall "big picture" handled by central governments having more or less coercive powers over subordinate units— yet this system stops at national borders. Is there reason to think that the system that successfully works to produce a fair overall approximation of civilization at all lower scales is mysteriously optional past a certain point? Can we expect success from this rule-breaking? How might that happen? In his opinion piece in PLOS Climate Aarti Gupta offers a partial workaround for missing rules in The advent of ‘radical’ transparency: Transforming multilateral climate politics?

"The climate isn't changing." We still hear this despite our lying eyes. In point of fact our climate is rapidly changing (and "too rapid" is a major of the problem) and surfacing evidence of that is one of quite a few reasons why we do this New Research feature. For every one major story about observed climate change effects we see broadly covered, there are many more that never leave the academic sphere.  Revisiting the agro-climatic zones of Ghana: A re-classification in conformity with climate change and variability is one such work, by Yamba et al. and intently focused on the vital task of keeping up with the reality we're creating. "People gotta eat," but if we're using anachronistic pre-climate-mess records, they won't. The authors are working on avoiding that problem. 

What's in the tin is on the label of The Increasing Efficiency of the Poleward Energy Transport into the Arctic in a Warming Climate. Christopher Cardinale and Brian Rose arrive at an outcome that may seem counterintuitive to the armchair climate scientist.  

144 articles in 54 journals by 1,052 contributing authors

Physical science of climate change, effects

A physical analysis of summertime North American heatwaves
Yu et al., Climate Dynamics, Open Access pdf 10.1007/s00382-022-06642-1

Hidden heatwaves and severe coral bleaching linked to mesoscale eddies and thermocline dynamics
Wyatt et al., Nature Communications, Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-022-35550-5

Teleconnections among tipping elements in the Earth system
Liu et al., Nature Climate Change, Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41558-022-01558-4

Observations of climate change, effects

Appraisal of climate change and source of heavy metals, sediments in water of the Kunhar River watershed, Pakistan
Soomro et al., Natural Hazards, 10.1007/s11069-022-05760-7

Biophysical impacts of earth greening can substantially mitigate regional land surface temperature warming
Li et al., Nature Communications, Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-023-35799-4

Climatology and significant trends in air temperature in Alagoas, Northeast Brazil
Silva et al., [journal not provided], Open Access pdf 10.21203/rs.3.rs-1667095/v1

Recent change in summer rainfall over the Tibetan Plateau: roles of anthropogenic forcing and internal variability
Ding et al., Climate Dynamics, 10.1007/s00382-023-06661-6

Revisit the upper portion of the Japan Sea Proper Water: A recent structural change and freshening in the formation area
Senjyu & Shiota, Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, 10.1029/2022jc019094

Weakening summer westerly circulation actuates greening of the Tibetan Plateau
Wang et al., Global and Planetary Change, 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2022.104027

Instrumentation & observational methods of climate change, effects

A data integration framework for spatial interpolation of temperature observations using climate model data
Economou et al., PeerJ, Open Access 10.7717/peerj.14519

Attribution of observed changes in extreme temperatures to anthropogenic forcing using CMIP6 models
Engdaw et al., Weather and Climate Extremes, Open Access 10.1016/j.wace.2023.100548

Changes of Extreme High Temperature by Global Warming in the Northern Hemisphere
Cao et al., Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, 10.1175/jamc-d-22-0043.1

Evaluation of ERA5 and ERA5-Land reanalysis precipitation datasets over Spain (1951–2020)
Gomis-Cebolla et al., Atmospheric Research, Open Access 10.1016/j.atmosres.2023.106606

When things get MESI: the Manipulation Experiments Synthesis Initiative – a coordinated effort to synthesize terrestrial global change experiments
Van Sundert et al., Global Change Biology, 10.1111/gcb.16585

Modeling, simulation & projection of climate change, effects

Future precipitation projection in Bangladesh using SimCLIM climate model: A multi-model ensemble approach
Islam et al., International Journal of Climatology, 10.1002/joc.7605

Increasing Precipitation Efficiency Amplifies Climate Sensitivity by Enhancing Tropical Circulation Slowdown and Eastern Pacific Warming Pattern
Li et al., Geophysical Research Letters, 10.1029/2022gl100836

Mesoscale convective systems over the Amazon basin in a changing climate under global warming
Rehbein & Ambrizzi, Climate Dynamics, 10.1007/s00382-022-06657-8

Northern Hemisphere Heat Extremes in a Warmer Climate: More Probable but Less Colocated with Blocking
Narinesingh et al., Geophysical Research Letters, 10.1029/2022gl101211

Potential weakening of the June 2012 North American derecho under future warming conditions
Li et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 10.1029/2022jd037494

Projected changes in precipitation characteristics over the Drakensberg Mountain Range
Takong & Abiodun, International Journal of Climatology, 10.1002/joc.7989

The dynamics of the equatorial Atlantic upwelling seasonal cycle under global warming and its potential impact on Pacific ENSO
Wang et al., Climate Dynamics, 10.1007/s00382-022-06654-x

The Increasing Efficiency of the Poleward Energy Transport into the Arctic in a Warming Climate
Cardinale & Rose Rose, ESS Open Archive, Open Access 10.1002/essoar.10512237.1

Why Is Climate Sensitivity for Solar Forcing Smaller than for an Equivalent CO2 Forcing?
Kaur et al., Journal of Climate, 10.1175/jcli-d-21-0980.1

Advancement of climate & climate effects modeling, simulation & projection

Does increasing climate model horizontal resolution be beneficial for the Mediterranean region? : Multimodel evaluation framework for High-Resolution Model Intercomparison Project
Mishra et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 10.1029/2022jd037812

Impacts of an aerosol layer on a midlatitude continental system of cumulus clouds: how do these impacts depend on the vertical location of the aerosol layer?
Lee et al., Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Open Access pdf 10.5194/acp-23-273-2023

Improving snow albedo parameterization scheme based on remote sensing data
Li et al., Atmospheric Research, 10.1016/j.atmosres.2022.106602

Representation of moist convective processes in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 and Phase 6 models for the simulation of Indian summer monsoon intraseasonal variability
Tirkey et al., International Journal of Climatology, 10.1002/joc.7765

The underestimation of spring precipitation over South China is caused by the weak simulations of the dynamic motion in CMIP6 models
Ai et al., International Journal of Climatology, 10.1002/joc.7991

Cryosphere & climate change

Antarctic Sea Ice Holds the Fate of Antarctic Ice-Shelf Basal Melting in a Warming Climate
Kusahara et al., Journal of Climate, 10.1175/jcli-d-22-0079.1

GRACE and mass budget method reveal decelerated ice loss in east Greenland in the past decade
Wang et al., Remote Sensing of Environment, 10.1016/j.rse.2023.113450

Significant underestimation of peatland permafrost along the Labrador Sea coastline in northern Canada
Wang et al., The Cryosphere, Open Access pdf 10.5194/tc-17-63-2023

Snow depth alteration and its relation with climate variability in China
Saydi et al., International Journal of Climatology, 10.1002/joc.7993

Weekly to monthly terminus variability of Greenland's marine-terminating outlet glaciers
Black & Joughin Joughin Joughin, The Cryosphere, Open Access pdf 10.5194/tc-17-1-2023

Sea level & climate change

Effect of Estuary Urbanization on Tidal Dynamics and High Tide Flooding in a Coastal Lagoon
Pareja?Roman et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, 10.1029/2022jc018777

Paleoclimate

Atmospheric River Contributions to Ice Sheet Hydroclimate at the Last Glacial Maximum
Skinner et al., Geophysical Research Letters, 10.1029/2022gl101750

Palaeontological evidence for community-level decrease in mesopelagic fish size during Pleistocene climate warming in the eastern Mediterranean
Agiadi et al., Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, Open Access 10.1098/rspb.2022.1994

Simulations of the Holocene climate in Europe using an interactive downscaling within the iLOVECLIM model (version 1.1)
Arthur et al., Climate of the Past, Open Access pdf 10.5194/cp-19-87-2023

Biology & climate change, related geochemistry

A reconstruction of parasite burden reveals one century of climate-associated parasite decline
Wood et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 10.1073/pnas.2211903120

Amazon windthrow disturbances are likely to increase with storm frequency under global warming
Feng et al., Nature Communications, Open Access 10.1038/s41467-022-35570-1

Current and lagged climate affects phenology across diverse taxonomic groups
Prather et al., Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, 10.1098/rspb.2022.2181

Does long-term soil warming affect microbial element limitation? A test by short-term assays of microbial growth responses to labile C, N and P additions
Shi et al., Global Change Biology, Open Access 10.1111/gcb.16591

Effects of global environmental change on microalgal photosynthesis, growth and their distribution
Kholssi et al., Marine Environmental Research, 10.1016/j.marenvres.2023.105877

Exposure to elevated temperature during development affects bumblebee foraging behavior
Gérard et al., Behavioral Ecology, Open Access 10.1093/beheco/arac045

Including imprecisely georeferenced specimens improves accuracy of species distribution models and estimates of niche breadth
Smith et al., [journal not provided], Open Access pdf 10.1101/2021.06.10.447988

Phenological mismatches and the demography of solitary bees
Vázquez et al., Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, Open Access 10.1098/rspb.2022.1847

Rapid eco-phenotypic feedback and the temperature response of biomass dynamics
Gibert et al., [journal not provided], Open Access pdf 10.1101/2022.06.17.496633

Resampling alpine herbarium records reveals changes in plant traits over space and time
Jaroszynska et al., Journal of Ecology, 10.1111/1365-2745.14062

Satellite observed reversal in trends of spring phenology in the middle-high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere during the global warming hiatus
Xiong et al., Global Change Biology, 10.1111/gcb.16580

Short-term improvement of heat tolerance in naturally growing Acropora corals in Okinawa
Singh et al., PeerJ, Open Access 10.7717/peerj.14629

The ecosystem wilting point defines drought response and recovery of a Quercus-Carya forest
Wood et al., Global Change Biology, 10.1111/gcb.16582

Tolerance of coralline algae to ocean warming and marine heatwaves
Krieger et al., PLOS Climate, Open Access pdf 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000092

Tropicalization shifts herbivore pressure from seagrass to rocky reef communities
Santana-Garcon et al., Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, Open Access 10.1098/rspb.2022.1744

Warming and hypoxia reduce the performance and survival of northern bay scallops (Argopecten irradians irradians) amid a fishery collapse
Tomasetti et al., Global Change Biology, Open Access 10.1111/gcb.16575

GHG sources & sinks, flux, related geochemistry

An inversion model based on GEOS-Chem for estimating global and China’s terrestrial carbon fluxes in 2019
Chong-Yuan et al., Advances in Climate Change Research, Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2023.01.001

Client-side energy and GHGs assessment of advertising and tracking in the news websites
Pesari et al., Journal of Industrial Ecology, 10.1111/jiec.13376

First assessment of seagrass carbon accumulation rates in Sweden: A field study from a fjord system at the Skagerrak coast
Dahl et al., PLOS Climate, Open Access pdf 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000099

From source to sink – recovery of the carbon balance in young forests
Grelle et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, Open Access 10.1016/j.agrformet.2022.109290

Nitrogen increases soil organic carbon accrual and alters its functionality
Tang et al., Global Change Biology, 10.1111/gcb.16588

River Corridor Sources Dominate CO2 Emissions from a Lowland River Network
, HydroShare Resources, Open Access 10.4211/hs.53c0ae4cf09b404fb19a77ed2018e186

Sources and sequestration rate of organic carbon in sediments of the bare tidal flat ecosystems: A model approach
Dang et al., Marine Environmental Research, 10.1016/j.marenvres.2023.105876

CO2 capture, sequestration science & engineering

Ecosystem carbon budgeting under Swietenia macrophylla King plantation in sub humid foothills of Eastern Himalayans of India
Dinesha et al., Environment, Development and Sustainability, 10.1007/s10668-022-02902-6

Integrating carbon stocks and landscape connectivity for nature-based climate solutions
O'Brien et al., Ecology and Evolution, Open Access 10.1002/ece3.9725

Machine learning for industrial processes: Forecasting amine emissions from a carbon capture plant
Jablonka et al., Science Advances, 10.1126/sciadv.adc9576

Performance analysis of power plant designed with a carbon capture unit: study of an oil refinery
Shamsaei et al., International Journal of Environmental Science and Technology, 10.1007/s13762-022-04707-6

Decarbonization

Assessing the water–energy–carbon nexus (WECN) in combined cycle power plants in Iran
Ghodrati et al., International Journal of Environmental Science and Technology, 10.1007/s13762-022-04749-w

Emerging photo-integrated rechargeable aqueous zinc-ion batteries and capacitors toward direct solar energy conversion and storage
Wang et al., Carbon Neutralization, 10.1002/cnl2.41

Experimental analysis and dynamic simulation of a solar-assisted industrial process using parabolic trough solar collectors under outdoor conditions
Y?lmaz et al., Energy for Sustainable Development, 10.1016/j.esd.2022.12.017

Mapping electric vehicle impacts: greenhouse gas emissions, fuel costs, and energy justice in the United States
Vega-Perkins et al., Environmental Research Letters, Open Access 10.1088/1748-9326/aca4e6

Role of hydrogen in China’s energy transition towards carbon neutrality target: IPAC analysis
Pian-Pian et al., Advances in Climate Change Research, Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2022.12.004

Sunspots That Matter: The Effect of Weather on Solar Technology Adoption
Lamp, Environmental and Resource Economics, Open Access 10.1007/s10640-022-00753-3

Thermodynamics of integrated energy supply for small-scale production and living condition in rural areas
Zhu et al., Energy for Sustainable Development, Open Access 10.1016/j.esd.2022.12.016

Time, history and meaning-making in research on people's relations with renewable energy technologies (RETs) – A conceptual proposal
Küpers & Batel, Energy Policy, 10.1016/j.enpol.2022.113358

Toward a low-carbon and circular building sector: Building strategies and urbanization pathways for the Netherlands
van Oorschot et al., Journal of Industrial Ecology, 10.1111/jiec.13375

Wind-energy development alters pronghorn migration at multiple scales
Milligan et al., Ecology and Evolution, Open Access 10.1002/ece3.9687

Exploration of the nexus between solar potential and electric vehicle uptake: A case study of Auckland, New Zealand
Wen et al., Energy Policy, 10.1016/j.enpol.2022.113406

Geoengineering climate

Dependence of strategic solar climate intervention on background scenario and model physics
Fasullo & Richter, Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Open Access pdf 10.5194/acp-23-163-2023

Limits and CO2 equilibration of near-coast alkalinity enhancement
He & Tyka Tyka, [journal not provided], Open Access pdf 10.5194/egusphere-2022-683

Sudden Reduction of Antarctic Sea Ice Despite Cooling After Nuclear War
Coupe et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, 10.1029/2022jc018774

Aerosols

A full year of aerosol size distribution data from the central Arctic under an extreme positive Arctic Oscillation: insights from the Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate (MOSAiC) expedition
Boyer et al., Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Open Access pdf 10.5194/acp-23-389-2023

Emission reductions significantly reduce the hemispheric contrast in cloud droplet number concentration in recent two decades
Cao et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 10.1029/2022jd037417

Long-term upper-troposphere climatology of potential contrail occurrence over the Paris area derived from radiosonde observations
Wolf et al., Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Open Access pdf 10.5194/acp-23-287-2023

Subsurface Ocean Temperature Responses to the Anthropogenic Aerosol Forcing in the North Pacific
Shi et al., Geophysical Research Letters, 10.1029/2022gl101035

Climate change communications & cognition

Attention to news media coverage of unconventional oil/gas development impacts: Exploring psychological antecedents and effects on issue support
Clarke & Evensen, Energy Policy, 10.1016/j.enpol.2022.113355

Biospheric values as predictor of climate change risk perception: A multinational investigation
Martin, Risk Analysis, 10.1111/risa.14083

Changing behavioral responses to heat risk in a warming world: How can communication approaches be improved?
McLoughlin et al., WIREs Climate Change, Open Access 10.1002/wcc.819

Effects of COVID-19 on civil society voices in European energy and climate policy
Nosko & Ušiak , Energy Policy, Open Access 10.1016/j.enpol.2023.113421

Evaluating the Terms Americans Use to Refer to “Carbon Emissions”
Commerçon et al., Environmental Communication, Open Access 10.1080/17524032.2022.2156907

Agronomy, animal husbundry, food production & climate change

A monitoring, reporting and verification system for low carbon agriculture: A case study from Brazil
Perosa et al., Environmental Science & Policy, 10.1016/j.envsci.2022.12.006

Analysis and prediction of carbon emissions from food consumption of middle-income groups: evidence from Yangtze River Economic Belt in China
Pang et al., Environment, Development and Sustainability, 10.1007/s10668-022-02843-0

Economic Value and Latent Demand for Agricultural Drought Forecast: Emerging Market for Weather and Climate Information in Central-Southern Nigeria
Awolala et al., Climate Risk Management, Open Access 10.1016/j.crm.2023.100478

Measures of livelihoods and their effect on vulnerability of farmers to climate change: evidence from coastal and non-coastal regions in India
Das et al., Environment, Development and Sustainability, 10.1007/s10668-023-02911-z

Mitigation potential and trade-offs for nitrous oxide emissions and carbon balances of irrigated mixed-species and ryegrass-clover pastures
Laubach et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 10.1016/j.agrformet.2023.109310

Multiple adoption of Climate-Smart Agriculture Innovation for agricultural sustainability: Empirical evidence from the Upper Blue Nile Highlands of Ethiopia
Teklu et al., Climate Risk Management, Open Access 10.1016/j.crm.2023.100477

Multiple adoption of Climate-Smart Agriculture Innovation for agricultural sustainability: Empirical evidence from the Upper Blue Nile Highlands of Ethiopia
Teklu et al., Climate Risk Management, Open Access 10.1016/j.crm.2023.100477

Predicting the future climate-related prevalence and distribution of crop pests and diseases affecting major food crops in Zambia
Nguru & Mwongera, PLOS Climate, Open Access 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000064

Recent decline of irrigation-induced cooling effect over the North China Plain in observations and model simulations
Liu et al., Geophysical Research Letters, 10.1029/2022gl101973

Research trends and gaps in climate change impacts and adaptation potentials in major crops
Wakatsuki et al., Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability, Open Access 10.1016/j.cosust.2022.101249

Revisiting the agro-climatic zones of Ghana: A re-classification in conformity with climate change and variability
Yamba et al., ESS Open Archive, Open Access 10.1002/essoar.10512022.1

The genomic and bioclimatic characterization of Ethiopian barley (Hordeum vulgare L.) unveils challenges and opportunities to adapt to a changing climate
Caproni et al., Global Change Biology, 10.1111/gcb.16560

When does upcycling mitigate climate change? The case of wet spent grains and fruit and vegetable residues in Canada
Jain & Gualandris, Journal of Industrial Ecology, 10.1111/jiec.13373

Hydrology, hydrometeorology & climate change

Anomalous rainfall trends in the North-Western Indian Himalayan Region (NW-IHR)
Upadhyaya et al., Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 10.1007/s00704-022-04280-5

Centennial analysis in tropical cyclone-induced precipitation in Korea
Chang et al., Weather and Climate Extremes, Open Access 10.1016/j.wace.2023.100549

Changing seasonality of daily and monthly precipitation extremes for the contiguous USA and possible connections with large-scale climate patterns
Dhakal et al., International Journal of Climatology, 10.1002/joc.7994

Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 and 6 representation of peak and end of rainy season over Upper Blue Nile basin
Fetene et al., International Journal of Climatology, 10.1002/joc.7736

Hydrological extremes and climatic controls on streamflow in Jhelum basin, NW Himalaya
Ahsan et al., Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 10.1007/s00704-022-04346-4

Relative importance of climatic and anthropogenic factors on runoff change at watershed scale
Forootan & Sadeghi, International Journal of Environmental Science and Technology, 10.1007/s13762-023-04759-2

The impact of climate change on river alternate bars
Redolfi et al., Geophysical Research Letters, 10.1029/2022gl102072

Climate change economics

Better insurance could effectively mitigate the increase in economic growth losses from U.S. hurricanes under global warming
Otto et al., Science Advances, 10.1126/sciadv.add6616

Does Climate Change Constitute a Financial Risk to Foreign Direct Investment? An Empirical Analysis on 200 Countries from 1970 to 2020
Ait Soussane et al., Weather, Climate, and Society, 10.1175/wcas-d-22-0027.1

Meta-analysis on necessary investment shifts to reach net zero pathways in Europe
Klaaßen & Steffen, Nature Climate Change, 10.1038/s41558-022-01549-5

Renewable energy, fiscal policy and load capacity factor in BRICS countries: novel findings from panel nonlinear ARDL model
Adebayo & Samour, Environment, Development and Sustainability, 10.1007/s10668-022-02888-1

Climate change and the circular economy

Developing regenerate: A circular economy engagement tool for the assessment of new and existing buildings
Gillott et al., Journal of Industrial Ecology, 10.1111/jiec.13377

Sustainable energy transition and circular economy: The heterogeneity of potential investors in rural community renewable energy projects
Romero-Castro et al., Environment, Development and Sustainability, Open Access pdf 10.1007/s10668-022-02898-z

Climate change mitigation public policy research

Carbon tax salience counteracts price effects through moral licensing
Hartmann et al., Global Environmental Change, 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2023.102635

Emissions and prices are anticorrelated in Australia’s electricity grid, undermining the potential of energy storage to support decarbonisation
Bardwell et al., Energy Policy, 10.1016/j.enpol.2022.113409

Evaluating the effect of low-carbon city pilot policy on urban PM2.5: evidence from a quasi-natural experiment in China
He et al., Environment, Development and Sustainability, 10.1007/s10668-023-02906-w

Forecasting environmental and social benefits of adopting cleaner technologies in Indian brick manufacturing industry
Abbas et al., Energy for Sustainable Development, Open Access 10.1016/j.esd.2022.12.001

Multidimensional partisanship shapes climate policy support and behaviours
Mayer & Smith, Nature Climate Change, Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41558-022-01548-6

Regional industrial redistribution and carbon emissions: a dynamic analysis for China
Shen et al., Climate Policy, 10.1080/14693062.2022.2161980

The challenge of just transition in China’s coal power sector: a city-level employment vulnerability assessment
Yuan et al., Climate Policy, 10.1080/14693062.2022.2149453

The source of wind power producers’ market power
Yu et al., Energy Policy, 10.1016/j.enpol.2022.113401

Climate change adaptation & adaptation public policy research

Anticipatory action to manage climate risks: lessons from the Red Cross Red Crescent in Southern Africa, Bangladesh, and beyond
Tozier de la Poterie et al., Climate Risk Management, Open Access 10.1016/j.crm.2023.100476

Assessment of climate change's impact on energy demand in Mexican buildings: Projection in single-family houses based on Representative Concentration Pathways
Jiménez Torres et al., Energy for Sustainable Development, Open Access 10.1016/j.esd.2022.12.012

Climate change adaptation through agroforestry: opportunities and gaps
Quandt et al., Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability, Open Access 10.1016/j.cosust.2022.101244

Climate change and coastal resiliency of Suva, Fiji: a holistic approach for measuring climate risk using the climate and ocean risk vulnerability index (CORVI)
Shiiba et al., Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, 10.1007/s11027-022-10043-4

Coastal Melaleuca wetlands under future climate and sea-level rise scenarios in the Mekong Delta, Vietnam: vulnerability and conservation
Dang et al., Regional Environmental Change, Open Access pdf 10.1007/s10113-022-02009-8

Collective adaptation to climate change
Thier & Lin , Environmental Communication, Open Access pdf 10.1080/17524032.2022.2143842

Cooperative adaptive management of the Nile River with climate and socio-economic uncertainties
Basheer et al., Nature Climate Change, Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41558-022-01556-6

Environmental non-migration: framework, methods, and cases
Mallick & Hunter, Regional Environmental Change, Open Access pdf 10.1007/s10113-022-02019-6

Legal culture and climate change adaptation: An agenda for research
Hoddy et al., WIREs Climate Change, Open Access 10.1002/wcc.825

The role of the scientific community in strengthening disability-inclusive climate resilience
Stein et al., Nature Climate Change, 10.1038/s41558-022-01564-6

Climate change impacts on human health

Appraisal of climate change and source of heavy metals, sediments in water of the Kunhar River watershed, Pakistan
Soomro et al., Natural Hazards, 10.1007/s11069-022-05760-7

Changing behavioral responses to heat risk in a warming world: How can communication approaches be improved?
McLoughlin et al., WIREs Climate Change, Open Access 10.1002/wcc.819

Electromagnetic and climatic foundations of human aggression
León, Journal of Environmental Psychology, 10.1016/j.jenvp.2023.101953

Modeling past and future spatiotemporal distributions of airborne allergenic pollen across the contiguous United States
Ren et al., Frontiers in Allergy, Open Access pdf 10.3389/falgy.2022.959594

Climate change & geopolitics

The advent of ‘radical’ transparency: Transforming multilateral climate politics?
Gupta, PLOS Climate, Open Access pdf 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000117

Other

Anticipating the occurrence and type of critical transitions
Grziwotz et al., [journal not provided], Open Access pdf 10.21203/rs.3.rs-1397318/v1

Challenging the values of the polluter elite: A global consequentialist response to Evensen and Graham's (2022) ‘The irreplaceable virtues of in-person conferences’
Whitmarsh & Kreil, Journal of Environmental Psychology, 10.1016/j.jenvp.2022.101881

Role of air-sea heat flux on the transformation of Atlantic Water encircling the Nordic Seas
Huang et al., Nature Communications, Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-023-35889-3

Informed opinion, nudges & major initiatives

COP27: One step on loss and damage for the most vulnerable countries, no step for the fight against climate change
Pflieger, PLOS Climate, Open Access pdf 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000136

Integrated modeling to achieve global goals: lessons from the Food, Agriculture, Biodiversity, Land-use, and Energy (FABLE) initiative
Jones et al., Sustainability Science, Open Access pdf 10.1007/s11625-023-01290-8

Ken Berlin—Climate science, risk, and solutions must be communicated together
Burger et al., Risk Analysis, 10.1111/risa.14034

Negotiating Nile infrastructure management should consider climate change uncertainties
Basheer et al., Nature Climate Change, Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41558-022-01557-5

The role of the scientific community in strengthening disability-inclusive climate resilience
Stein et al., Nature Climate Change, 10.1038/s41558-022-01564-6

Articles/Reports from Agencies and Non-Governmental Organizations Addressing Aspects of Climate Change

California’s Oil and Gas Workers: An analysis of the fossil fuel workforce, occupational transition opportunities, and State support for potentially impacted workers, Gender Equality Policy Institute

A key challenge in meeting California’s climate action goals is to devise a fair, equitable, and empirically-based policy to provide support for workers at risk of unemployment and income loss as many factors combine to reduce demand in the state for oil and gas products. To assist in scoping the elements and cost of supporting impacted workers, the authors analyzed the California labor force employed by the oil and gas industries and electric power to identify the number and type of workers that could be negatively affected by the shift to a clean energy economy. The authors conducted a novel occupational analysis of the labor force in order to identify job opportunities for oil and gas industry workers in industries active in California. In contrast to other studies examining the job impacts of decarbonization, the authors analyze potential employment opportunities for oil and gas workers in all growing occupations, not solely in clean energy or green jobs.

Sixth Oregon Climate Assessment, Fleishman, E., editor, Climate Change Research Institute, Oregon State University

Established and emerging understanding of observed and projected climate change in Oregon, and knowledge of the opportunities and risks that climate change poses to natural and human systems, may serve as a resource for actions such as equitable planning for the mitigation of climate-related natural hazards. For example, Oregon’s annual average temperature increased by about 2.2°F per century since 1895. If greenhouse gas emissions continue at current levels, the annual temperature in Oregon is projected to increase by 5°F by the 2050s and 8.2°F by the 2080s, with the greatest seasonal increases in summer. Precipitation is projected to increase during winter and decrease during summer, and the number and intensity of heavy winter precipitation events are projected to increase. Furthermore, the proportion of precipitation falling as rain rather than snow is expected to increase.

Biofuels and the Environment: Third Triennial Report to Congress, Lead et al., US. Environmental Protection Agency

The authors focus on the dominant biofuel sources in the U.S. including (1) domestic corn ethanol from corn starch, (2) domestic biodiesel from soybean oil, (3) domestic biodiesel from fats, oils, and greases (FOGs), and (4) imported ethanol from Brazilian sugarcane. They examine the effects of the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) Program on the environment, including the impacts to date and likely future impacts on the nation’s air, land, and water resources. They focus on environmental and resource conservation issues, including effects on air quality, soil quality and conservation, water quality and availability, terrestrial ecosystems, aquatic ecosystems, wetlands, and consideration of invasive or noxious species. The authors emphasize domestic effects but they also examine effects overseas from U.S. biofuel trade with other countries.

EU Market Outlook for Solar Power 2022-2026, Schmela et al., SolarPower Europe

In 2022 solar power displayed its' true potential for the very first time in the EU, driven by record-high energy prices and geopolitical tensions that largely improved its business case. No longer constrained by severe supply chain bottlenecks and COVID-19-related restrictions, the 27 EU Member States saw 41.4 GW of new solar PV capacity connected to their grids, a 47% increase compared to 2021. Like last year, Germany is again Europe’s biggest solar market in 2022 with 7.9 GW of newly installed capacity, followed by Spain (7.5 GW), Poland (4.9 GW), the Netherlands (4.0 GW), and France (2.7 GW). While the top 5 EU markets stayed the same, Portugal and Sweden have entered the top 10, at the expense of Hungary and Austria. For the first time, all top 10 markets are also GW- scale markets. In 2022, 26 out of 27 EU Member States deployed more solar than the year before. The EU’s solar power generation fleet increased by 25% to 208.9 GW, from 167.5 GW in 2021. Total solar capacity across the EU has exceeded 200 GW, only four years after it passed the 100 GW milestone in 2018. With 68.5 GW Germany maintains its role as the largest operator of solar power plants in the EU. Spain is now ranked 2nd, reaching a total of 26.4 GW thanks to extraordinary market growth. It takes this spot from Italy, which was in control of the EU’s second-largest solar fleet since 2011. Obtaining articles without journal subscriptions

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How is New Research assembled?

Most articles appearing here are found via  RSS feeds from journal publishers, filtered by search terms to produce raw output for assessment of relevance. 

Relevant articles are then queried against the Unpaywall database, to identify open access articles and expose useful metadata for articles appearing in the database. 

The objective of New Research isn't to cast a tinge on scientific results, to color readers' impressions. Hence candidate articles are assessed via two metrics only:

  • Was an article deemed of sufficient merit by a team of journal editors and peer reviewers? The fact of journal RSS output assigns a "yes" to this automatically. 
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Categories: I. Climate Science

Tonga volcano eruption raises ‘imminent’ risk of temporary 1.5C breach

The Carbon Brief - Thu, 01/12/2023 - 08:00

The eruption of Tonga’s underwater volcano in 2022 may cause global temperatures to rise, raising the risk that at least one year in the next five will temporarily exceed the 1.5C warming threshold, new research finds.

On 15 January 2022, an underwater volcano in Tonga – the Hunga Tonga–Hunga Ha’apai – erupted violently, releasing billowing plumes of soot, water vapour and sulphur dioxide high into the atmosphere.

Major volcanic eruptions typically cool the planet temporarily, because, until they dissipate, sulphur dioxide particles reflect sunlight away from the planet. However, the study – published in Nature Climate Change – finds that the Tonga eruption in the south Pacific expelled an unprecedented amount of water into the atmosphere.

Water vapour is a greenhouse gas and so “it is possible that over a multiyear period Hunga Tonga–Hunga Ha’apai will cause a temporary increase in global surface temperatures”, the paper says.

The study says that, before the eruption, there was a 50-50 chance that global temperatures would exceed 1.5C above pre-industrial levels at least once by 2026. In its aftermath, the likelihood of exceeding this threshold has increased by seven percentage points – making “imminent 1.5C exceedance” more likely than not.

The authors stress that temporarily crossing the 1.5C threshold would not equate to missing the Paris Agreement target, which concerns long-term temperature trends. Nevertheless, the paper says “the first year which exceeds 1.5C will garner substantial media attention, even if a portion of this results from Hunga Tonga–Hunga Ha’apai”.

Hunga Tonga–Hunga Ha’apai 

On 15 January 2022, an underwater volcano in the Pacific Ocean’s Tongan archipelago called the Hunga Tonga–Hunga Ha’apai erupted violently. The blast ranked a six on the volcanic explosivity index, making it the most violent eruption anywhere in the world since Mount Pinatubo in the Philippines in 1991.

The explosion was heard across the ocean in Alaska, around 6,000 miles away, and triggered tsunami waves that reached as far as Russia, the US and Chile. A cloud of ash, gas and water was ejected some 57km into the atmosphere – the highest plume ever recorded from a volcano.

The volcanic plume from the Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha’apai eruption, 15 January 2022. Credit: NOAA / Alamy Stock Photo.

Ash from the eruption blanketed nearby islands, forcing many people to evacuate to the main island. Around 84% of Tonga’s population were impacted by ash and tsunami waves in the immediate aftermath of the eruption, and two Tongan nationals were killed.

Aside from these local impacts, the Hunga Tonga–Hunga Ha’apai stands apart from its predecessors for another important reason.

Usually when a volcano erupts, the plumes of dust and aerosols reflect sunlight away from the planet, causing surface temperatures to drop. For example, when Mount Pinatubo erupted in 1991, global temperatures temporarily dropped by 0.5C. However, the Tonga eruption has had the opposite effect.

Dr Stuart Jenkins, from the University of Oxford’s department of Atmospheric, Oceanic and Planetary Physics, is the lead author of the “brief communications” study. He explains that the Hunga Tonga–Hunga Ha’apai caused surface warming thanks to the unusual composition of its plume:

“Most large eruptions are dominated by their sulphur dioxide emissions, which cool the planet temporarily as they scatter incoming sunlight. The Tonga eruption was unusual because instead it released a large amount of water vapour into the stratosphere – a powerful greenhouse gas – with little sulphur dioxide emissions.

“Pinatubo and Tonga actually may have opposite warming responses, which makes the Tonga volcano particularly interesting in the context of other recent eruptions.”

In total, the study finds that the blast projected just 0.42m tonnes of cooling sulphur dioxide aerosols into the stratosphere – a layer of the atmosphere begins around 10km above the surface of the Earth, and extends upwards for around 40km. Meanwhile, it expelled a total of 146m tonnes of water, raising the water vapour content of the stratosphere by 10–15%. 

The volcanic plume from the Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha’apai eruption was seen by astronauts aboard the International Space Station, 269 miles above the Pacific Ocean, January 16, 2022 in Earth Orbit. Credit: NASA Photo / Alamy Stock Photo.

“The Tonga eruption was definitely unusual,” says Dr Mark Schoeberl – a researcher from Columbia’s Science and Technology Corporation, who has led separate analysis on the Tonga eruption’s water plume. He tells Carbon Brief that Hunga Tonga–Hunga Ha’apai “lofted an unprecedented amount of water into the mid-stratosphere”.

Dr Luis Millán from NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory has also led separate research into Tonga eruption’s hydration of the stratosphere. He tells Carbon Brief that the eruption injected enough water into the stratosphere to fill 58,000 Olympic-sized swimming pools.

The water vapour then spread out across much of the stratosphere, the study says. It adds that the warming effect of the water vapour outweighed the cooling effect of sulphate aerosols, causing global surface temperatures to rise temporarily.

1.5C threshold

Since its eruption in January 2022, scientists have investigated the volcano’s impact extensively – including the unprecedented height of its plume, its impact on atmospheric circulation and the effect on the global energy balance. However, this study is the first to investigate what the temporary warming means for global temperature thresholds.

The authors use a radiative transfer model to assess how the Tonga eruption changed the balance of energy entering and leaving the surface of the earth, and find a warming effect of 0.12 Watts per square metre immediately following the eruption.

They then use a climate model to estimate global temperature change over the coming decade, assuming that the amount of water in the stratosphere decreases linearly from January 2022 to January 2029. 

The plot below shows the change in global average surface temperature compared to the 1850-1900 average, both with and without the impact of the Tonga eruption, over 2015-35, under two different scenarios that explore future climate change.

The plot shows the low-emissions SSP1-1.9 scenario with (dark blue) and without (dark grey) the impact of the Tonga volcano. It also shows the moderate-emissions SSP2-4.5 scenario with (green) and without (light grey) the impact of the Tonga volcano. The main results are shown with thick coloured lines. Thin lines show interannual variability and dashed lines show the 5th-95th percentile range of results.

Impact of the 2022 Hunga Tonga–Hunga Ha’apai eruption on projected global average surface temperature anomaly over 2015-35. Lines indicate the low-emissions SSP1-1.9/ moderate-emissions SSP2-4.5 scenarios with (dark blue/green) and without (dark grey/light grey) the impact of the Tonga volcano. Thick coloured lines, thin lines and dashed lines show the main results, interannual variability and 5th-95th percentile range of results respectively. Source: Jenkins et al (2023).

Next, the authors ask: what does this temperature rise mean for the 1.5C warming threshold?

Last year, the World Meteorological Organization estimated that there is a 50-50 chance of global temperatures temporarily crossing the 1.5C warming threshold in at least one year between 2022 and 2026. However, this estimate does not take the warming effect of the Tonga eruption into account.

The plot below shows the likelihood of global surface temperatures exceeding the 1.5C threshold over 2015-35 (solid lines) under the four scenarios investigated above, and the cumulative probability that no year has yet exceeded 1.5C (dashed lines) for each.

Likelihood of global surface temperatures exceeding the 1.5C threshold over 2015-2035 (solid lines) and the cumulative probability that no year has yet exceeded 1.5C (dashed lines). Source: Jenkins et al (2023).

The plot shows that the Tonga eruption increased the chance of at least one year over 2022-26 years exceeding the 1.5C warming threshold by seven percentage points. In other words, under the SSP1-19 scenario, the probability has risen from 50 to 57%, while under SSP2-45, it has risen from 60 to 67%.

Prof Pasquale Sellitto from the Interuniversity Laboratory of Atmospheric Systems has also published separate research on the radiative impact of the Tonga eruption. He tells Carbon Brief that the work is “a very interesting extension of previous studies on the climate impact of this exceptional eruption”, adding that its results are “very reasonable”.

However, he flags two areas where the study could be improved. Firstly, he says the paper assumes that water vapour injected into the atmosphere is “globally well mixed”, whereas in reality, the plume was “confined in the southern hemisphere”.

Secondly, the paper omits the cooling impact of the sulphate aerosols injected into the atmosphere, stating that “the sulphur dioxide deposit is substantially smaller than the accompanying water vapour deposit”. However, Selitto says that “the Hunga Tonga perturbation of stratospheric aerosol is actually the largest since the Pinatubo eruption in 1991”.

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He concludes:

“I think that Jenkins et al. is a very nice starting point to estimate the global mean surface temperature impact by the Hunga Tonga eruption in 2022, but more studies are required in the future to make more precise estimations.”

Similarly, Millán says that if the 1.5C threshold is crossed in the coming years, more model runs will be needed to “discern the small Hunga’s contribution from the anthropogenic one”.

Paris agreement

In 2015, the United Nations delivered the Paris Agreement – an international agreement to limit global warming to 2C above pre-industrial temperatures, while aiming to keep warming below 1.5C. These temperature thresholds have been key benchmarks for progress on tackling climate change ever since.

As such, the paper says that “the first year which exceeds 1.5C will garner substantial media attention, even if a portion of this results from Hunga Tonga–Hunga Ha’apai”.

However, it emphasises that the common interpretation of the Paris Agreement is that its temperature limits refer to the long-term global warming attributable to human influence – and not the added effect of natural climate variability caused by events such as volcanic eruptions. As such, temporarily crossing the 1.5C threshold over 2022-26 due to the Tonga eruption will not dictate the success or failure of the Paris agreement.

Jenkins tells Carbon Brief the impact of the eruption on global temperatures is temporary, and will fade over five to 10 years. He adds:

“Tonga is only contributing a very small amount to the surface temperature anomaly today. We will not see the impact of Tonga on climate change events like droughts or floods, the effect is simply too small.”

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Categories: I. Climate Science

Cropped 11 January 2023: Brazil under Lula; COP15 reaction; EU deforestation law

The Carbon Brief - Wed, 01/11/2023 - 07:18

Welcome to Carbon Brief’s Cropped. 
We handpick and explain the most important stories at the intersection of climate, land, food and nature over the past fortnight.

This is an online version of Carbon Brief’s fortnightly Cropped email newsletter. Subscribe for free here.

Snapshot

Newly installed Brazilian president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has pledged to reach net-zero deforestation of the Brazilian Amazon by 2030, in contrast to weakened environmental policies under previous president Jair Bolsonaro. Leaders and researchers expect positive gains for rainforests and Indigenous peoples of the South American country.

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Reaction to the UN biodiversity summit that dominated nature headlines in December continued into 2023. There has been a mixed response to the way in which the final deal was agreed, but the overall framework has been widely welcomed. Experts are clear that action over the next seven years will determine the success of COP15. 

EU lawmakers agreed on a landmark anti-deforestation law. The law is likely to be formally approved in spring and covers key commodities, but excludes financial institutions and critical ecosystems, such as savannahs. Brazil, Indonesia, Ghana, Colombia and other producer countries complain they were not adequately consulted.

Key developments Lula sworn in 

BOLSONARO’S INHERITANCE: At the end of December, far-right former president Jair Bolsonaro left Brazil’s presidency after four years in office and amid strong criticisms over his forest policies. That month, the Brazilian Amazon saw an increase in deforestation of 150% as compared to the previous year, resulting in a deforested area covering almost 220 square kilometres, reported Al Jazeera. The outlet added that the deforestation was driven by “farms and land grabbers clearing the forest for cattle and crops”, according to experts. The New York Times reported on the greenhouse gas emissions emitted by the world’s largest tropical rainforest during the past years. The newspaper profiled Dr Luciana Vanni Gatti, an atmospheric chemist who studies the concentration of CO2 above the Brazilian rainforest. Her research has found that the Amazon releases around 272m tons of CO2 annually, “roughly the emissions of the entire nation of France”, which “suggested that emissions from the slashing and burning of trees… were actually exceeding the forest’s capacity to absorb carbon”, the New York Times wrote.

NEW LULA’S ERA: Several outlets pointed out that new Brazilian president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva led to a decrease in deforestation when he previously held the office between 2003 and 2010. During his new governmental period he has promised to “reboot Brazil’s environmental protection programs [and] fight for zero deforestation”, reported Al Jazeera. Nature noted some of the pledges Lula has made to “fight climate change by protecting Amazon rainforest”. For example, at the COP27 climate summit in Sharm el-Sheikh, Lula committed his country to reaching net-zero deforestation by 2030. But, Nature continued, researchers and leaders are watching to see if Lula will fulfil his climate promises. Lula’s former environment minister, Marina Silva, is reprising her role under his new administration. Silva was been described as “an unflinching campaigner to save Brazil’s rainforest” by the Financial Times, which pointed out that she reduced deforestation by 70% during her first term in office by including “new management of public forests, the creation of a forest service and a biodiversity institute and several funds for the maintenance of the Amazon”.

FINANCING THE NEW CLIMATE PLEDGES: One of the key elements to achieving Lula’s pledge on net-zero deforestation by 2030 will be financing. The World Bank lent Brazil $500m to meet its climate goals by “strengthen[ing] the private sector’s capacity to access carbon credit markets”, Reuters wrote. In another article, the newswire reported on the revival of the Amazon Fund to reduce deforestation in Brazil. The fund “still holds about $620m”, noted Reuters. Norway, the fund’s major donor, highlighted Brazil’s “clear ambition to stop deforestation by 2030” and said that the new president has “reinstated strategies” and appointed experienced ministers to reach that goal.

COP15 reaction 

DONE DEAL: The biggest news in nature at the end of 2022 was the global targets agreed at the COP15 biodiversity summit in Montreal. Almost every nation in the world signed up to a new set of goals to “halt and reverse” biodiversity loss by 2030. Carbon Brief published a detailed piece on the key outcomes from this UN biodiversity conference, covering all the ins and outs of the lengthy negotiations. The response to the resulting framework was generally positive. UN secretary general António Guterres said: “We are finally starting to forge a peace pact with nature.” The International Indigenous Forum on Biodiversity celebrated the “timely recognition” of Indigenous peoples and local community contributions, roles, rights and responsibilities to nature in the text. Civil society groups were overall satisfied with the deal, but clear that measures to hold countries to account for their promises could have been strengthened. 

POST-SUMMIT OPINIONS: The final outcome received wide news coverage alongside some editorials and columns. But, as opinion writer David Wallace-Wells wrote in his newsletter for the New York Times, it “received only a fraction of the press coverage lavished on the COP27 climate conference” in November. Craig Bennett, chief executive of the Wildlife Trusts, wrote in a column for the Guardian that he left COP15 “feeling rather more optimistic than I did only a fortnight ago”. A Times editorial called the deal a “rare piece of good news in gloomy times”. Allison Hanes wrote in the Montreal Gazette that “the hoped-for ‘Montreal moment’ materialised”. Writing in the Scotsman, environmental campaigner and consultant Dr Richard Dixon said that the new framework is a “really big step forward for nature and human rights”, but that countries have been “slow to deliver on promised actions” and funding in past agreements. “The world has seven years to show it can do better for nature,” he concluded. 

CONTROVERSIAL ENDING: Although the response was widely positive, many countries objected to the way in which the final deal was pushed through. Near the end of the final plenary session to adopt the text, the Democratic Republic of Congo said it was unable to support adopting the framework due to issues over financing. But several minutes later, COP15 president Huang Runqiu proposed to adopt the package of texts, pausing for just two seconds before dropping the gavel after seeing no objections. The DRC and other countries spoke out against this move. Later that day, the Guardian quoted the DRC’s environment minister as saying: “We didn’t accept it. We didn’t have the agreement…I am sad to see that they didn’t respect the procedure.” These issues were smoothed over hours later and the deal was ultimately signed off. 

EU deforestation law

LANDMARK LAW: In the early hours of 6 December – and right before the start of COP15 – the European legislators agreed on a landmark anti-deforestation law, EurActiv reported. The law will require all producers and traders to prove that their products were “produced on land that was not subject to deforestation after 31 December 2020” and furnish due diligence statements, or else risk import and export bans. The law also directs companies to collect “precise” geographic coordinates of the land where their commodities were raised. The European Commission plans to set up a benchmarking system that would assess countries’ deforestation risk. The law “ has yet to be formally approved”, Vox reported, adding that it “is a really big deal…and could help clean up the supply chains of multinational companies”. It also has the potential to “inspire anti-deforestation regulations in other large economies, such as China and the US”, Vox continued. 

FOREST COVERED: The EU law currently extends to a wide range of commodities: from beef and chocolate to coffee, soy and wood, as well as products derived from these commodities, such as leather or furniture, per EurActiv. EU lawmakers managed to expand the scope of commodities to include palm-oil derivatives, rubber, charcoal and printed paper, but biodiesel and maize are currently not included in the regulation. Significantly, the law’s definition of forest degradation also applies to primary forests being converted to plantations. However, it excludes areas such as scrublands and biodiverse savannahs, such as the Cerrado. But EurActiv pointed out that the included areas can be reviewed two years down the line.

RIPPLE EFFECTS: Not every country received the news with open arms. A week before the law was passed, Indonesia and Brazil circulated a letter signed by 14 major commodity-producing countries to the EU’s agriculture committee. These countries – including Brazil, Argentina, Colombia, Indonesia, Malaysia, Ghana and the Ivory Coast – complained that they were not adequately consulted, questioned the “uncertain and discriminatory nature of the scope of products” and pointed out “costly and impractical traceability requirements”. They added that the “EU has chosen unilateral legislation instead of an international engagement to deal with these shared objectives, reflected in the Paris Agreement and the [Sustainable Development Goals], to which we have all subscribed.” While Indonesian small-scale palm oil farmers described the law as a “great opportunity” for deforestation-free palm oil, Mongabay reported that it is “unlikely they will be able to meet the legality and sustainability criteria set by the EU”. The Guardian reported that US lawmakers were encouraged by the EU ban and already “accelerat[ing]” efforts to pass a similar but “significantly weaker” forest act.  

News and views

BIRD FLU CRISIS: Almost 10m birds have been culled in recent months in Japan as authorities continue efforts to control the avian flu epidemic, Bloomberg reported. Japan’s agriculture ministry said that the culling surpassed a previous record in 2020, according to the news outlet. The global bird flu outbreak is at its worst level since records began, Bloomberg reported last month. Writing in the Guardian, a National Trust countryside manager described the “horrors of bird flu” on the Farne Islands. She wrote: “In total, we picked up around 6,000 dead birds. We just couldn’t keep up. What we collected was the tip of the iceberg.”

RIVER RUNNING DRY: The year 2023 will be “critical” for the Colorado River basin, CNN wrote. The river needs the states that draw water from it to make “unprecedented” cuts to their water usage against the backdrop of a “deep, multi-year drought”, the outlet continued. The commissioner of the Bureau of Reclamation, which oversees water management programmes in the western US, has set a deadline of 31 January for states to make voluntary cuts to water usage, after which “top federal water officials have said they would step in and make mandatory cuts to save the system”. But CNN also noted that intervention from the federal government “would almost assuredly be greeted with a court challenge”.

FOOD PRICE HIGH: Global prices for food commodities, such as grain and vegetable oil, reached a record high in 2022 amid Russia’s war in Ukraine, widespread drought and other extremes, the Associated Press (AP) reported. The UN Food and Agriculture Organization’s Food Price Index, which tracks food commodity prices, averaged 143.7 points for 2022 – more than 14% above the average score in 2021, according to AP. It comes as the Irish Times reported on ongoing famine in Somalia, where children are dying of hunger in the country’s worst drought in four decades. The newspaper reported: “Banadir Hospital is one of Somalia’s biggest mother and child hospitals. It currently has beds for 40 malnourished children, while work has started on an extension that will fit another 28. But hospital staff say they are at capacity and turning children away.”

GM CORN BAN: During the North American Leaders’ Summit, from 9-11 January, US and Mexican presidents met to work on several issues, including a previously announced proposal by Mexico to phase out genetically modified corn for human consumption by January 2024. “The issue appears to have faded into the background behind more pressing concerns like energy, security and migration,” the New York Times reported. The proposed ban has created friction with the US government and farmers as the US is the main exporter of corn towards Mexico, selling 15m tonnes of corn to the Latin American country in 2021, according to El País. The outlet explained that Mexico depends on imports to cover 75% of its yellow corn needs, which is mostly used for animal feed. In response to the US pressure, a Mexican delegation offered to delay the ban to 2025, while environmental groups and farmers from the US, Mexico and Canada warned that huge transnational companies are pushing Mexico to abandon its right to food sovereignty and reverse the ban. It is expected that the US government will release a response by 15 January, Progressive Farmer wrote.

NO, CHUBB: An independent review of Australia’s “controversial” carbon-credit scheme recommended “significant changes”, but rejected claims by leading experts that these markets lack integrity and are failing to deliver “real” emissions cuts, the Guardian reported. Led by Australia’s former chief scientist Prof Ian Chubb, the report suggested that the state-run Clean Energy Regulator “should be stripped” of some of its roles and that its current integrity body be abolished to “enhance confidence”. Chubb commented in a press conference that the system was “a bit frayed at the edges” but “not as broken as has been suggested”. Writing in the Conversation, the academics who blew the whistle on the scheme and the serious flaws in its methods called the review “bewildering”. In a statement, the thinktank the Australia Institute said that the assessment failed to provide an estimate of “how many dodgy credits have been issued”. The Institute had earlier pointed out that two of the four members on the panel “are linked to companies that profit from current carbon offsetting arrangements.”

WYE OH WYE: The Welsh government is under pressure from campaigners to block the construction of a new “mega chicken farm” that would house up to 100,000 birds at a time, according to the Guardian. The “life or death” of the River Wye hangs in the balance, environmentalists say. The river is “synonymous with the intensive poultry industry”, the newspaper wrote, and scientists recommend cutting poultry manure production by 80% to protect it. Natural Resources Wales has “recently accepted publicly that poultry manure is harming rivers in the Wye area”, the Guardian reported, but local councils are still approving the construction of new farms. The government has sent a “holding direction” to pause the approval of the “mega” farm, but ministers must “now decide whether to…rule on the chicken farm at government level”. 

Extra reading New science

Grassland conservation and restoration in India: a governance crisis
Restoration Ecology

A new study found that the conservation of India’s grasslands is impeded by a “governance crisis” and is negatively affected by India’s commitment to global goals – including its climate pledges – that have quantified targets of increasing tree cover. Researchers reviewed historical accounts of Indian grasslands to understand how contemporary conservation and restoration policies are framed. They found that the involvement of multiple government bodies, misleading nomenclature – the classification of grasslands as “waste lands”, for instance – and “flawed interventions” were fuelled by “strong forest bias within government bodies” and non-governmental organisations. The authors concluded: “India needs a more cohesive national policy framework and a robust ecosystem classification system to successfully conserve and restore grasslands.” 

Navigating sustainability trade-offs in global beef production
Nature Sustainability 

Changing production areas, feed types and making informed land-use changes can help to significantly reduce emissions in global beef production without increasing costs, according to a new study. Researchers developed a model to assess the best locations and methods for producing beef around the world, taking into account both costs and greenhouse gas emissions. The researchers found that making certain changes can keep costs static while slashing emissions by 34-85% each year. The approach used in the paper can help to identify different trade-offs between production costs and minimising emissions, the authors said.

Pollinator deficits, food consumption and consequences for human health: a modelling study
Environmental Health Perspectives

Inadequate pollination results in 427,000 excess deaths annually due to reductions in healthy food consumption and associated diseases, a study found. Researchers modelled the impacts of insufficient pollination on human health in Honduras, Nepal and Nigeria using data on yield gaps for animal-pollinated foods and changes in dietary risks and mortality by country. They found that inadequate pollination leads to yearly losses of 3-5% of fruit, vegetable and nut production in these countries. They noted that insufficient pollinators play an important role in noncommunicable diseases and pointed out the importance of promoting “pollinator-friendly practices for both human health and agricultural livelihood”.

In the diary

Cropped is researched and written by Dr Giuliana Viglione, Aruna Chandrasekhar, Daisy Dunne, Orla Dywer and and Yanine Quiroz. Please send tips and feedback to cropped@carbonbrief.org

The post Cropped 11 January 2023: Brazil under Lula; COP15 reaction; EU deforestation law appeared first on Carbon Brief.

Categories: I. Climate Science

Met Office: A review of the UK’s climate in 2022

The Carbon Brief - Wed, 01/11/2023 - 02:00

Last year was a dramatic one for the UK’s climate. 

The year of 2022 will be remembered for the passing of two significant milestones – a daily maximum temperature of more than 40C and a national average temperature over the year of more than 10C. 

In this review, we unpack the UK’s climate of 2022 and show that both these notable records were highly unlikely to have occurred without the influence of human-caused climate change.

While 2022 was the UK’s warmest year on record overall, it also included a prolonged spell of cold and snowy weather in December. This was one of the most significant cold snaps since December 2010.

However, we show that the frequency and severity of cold weather is declining. For example, comparing 1991-2020 with 1961-1990, the number of days with UK average temperatures below 2C has decreased by one third and days below 0C have decreased by a half.

The year in summary

Our observational records show that 2022 was – for the majority of the country – warm, dry and sunny. The maps below show the average temperature (left), rainfall amount (middle) and sunshine duration (right) across the UK during 2022. The darkest shading shows the areas of the country that saw the warmest (red), driest (brown) and sunniest (yellow) conditions, relative to their local climate.

Maps showing anomalies relative to a 1991-2020 reference period for (left) temperature (C), (middle) precipitation (%), and (right) sunshine (%). The darker shading indicates the greater departure from average. Credit: Met Office.

The UK annual mean temperature of 10.03C exceeded the previous record warmest year of 9.88C set in 2014. As the figure below shows, the 10 warmest years on record (red dots) have occurred since 2002, and we have not experienced a top 10 cold year (blue dots) since 1963. 

Timeseries of UK annual average temperature from 1884 to 2022 with the hottest and coldest years in the series highlighted. Credit: Met Office.

Overall, the UK received 90% of its long-term annual average rainfall in 2022, which is relatively dry for recent decades, but not exceptional in the longer-term context. While significant rainfall deficits were evident by the end of summer, a wetter-than-average autumn went some way towards a partial recovery. Nonetheless, it was the eighth driest year on record for East Anglia, which had just 76% of its annual average rainfall. This can be seen by the dark brown shading over East Anglia in the map above.

Sunshine was in abundance throughout the year, and the UK received 9% more sunshine than average. This made 2022 the seventh sunniest year on record, the second sunniest for England, and the sunniest on record for East Anglia – where 21% more than average sunshine was recorded.

Central England Temperature series

Currently, our official statistics for the UK go back to 1884 for temperature, 1836 for rainfall and 1919 for sunshine. These reflect the amount of digitised observational records we have in order to produce robust UK-wide statistics. Earlier instrumental weather records do exist for the UK, and ongoing data recovery activities to digitise historical observations is ongoing.

But we also have the Met Office Central England Temperature series (CET), which spans 1659-2022. This is the longest instrumental climate series in the world and the result of pioneering work by the scientist Gordon Manley in the mid-20th century. He uncovered historical weather records and diaries extending back several centuries, culminating in the construction of a temperature series representative of central England from 1659. 

The series is maintained to this day. To provide consistency with the original series produced by Manley, the current series is based on three weather stations at Rothamsted (Hertfordshire), Pershore College (Worcestershire) and Stonyhurst (Lancashire), while the full UK series discussed above is based on hundreds of weather stations located across the whole UK. Our official UK series therefore is the most comprehensive assessment of the UK climate of the last 139 years and provides regional detail, but the CET, while much more limited in its coverage, provides an invaluable multi-century perspective.

It is worth noting that 2022 was the warmest year in both the UK-wide and CET records.

We often get asked about the differences between the two series, but in much the same way that the rankings and values for each of England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland can differ, so can the CET and UK series. 

However, although there are inevitable differences between the two datasets for any given date, the overwhelming message from plotting these annual temperature series together is how closely they agree – overlapping by around 97%. 

You can see this in the chart below, which shows the full CET record (black line) with the UK-wide record overlaid (red line). The dashed lines show the 1991-2020 reference periods in the two records for comparison.

Timeseries of annual mean temperature anomaly relative to a 1961-90 baseline for (red) UK and (black) Central England Temperature. Dashed horizontal lines represent the 1991-2020 climatology for each series (which is 0.8C warmer than 1961-90 for both series). Credit: Met Office.

The CET series therefore provides strong evidence that it is highly unlikely that a UK-wide warmer year could have occurred in the last 364 years. The year-to-year, and even decade-to-decade variability, in our climate is evident in this long time series but it can also be seen that the warming of our climate means that a cold year now, such as 2010, is not as severe as cold years of past centuries, while a warm year now, such as 2022, is much more likely to break records. 

The reference climatology for our current climate is the period 1991-2020, and it is noteworthy that in the 332 years before this – from 1659 to 1990 – there were only 12 years with an annual average temperature above this modern day baseline, highlighting how climate change is moving UK average temperatures outside of historical ranges.

Attribution

We conducted an attribution study for 2022 to quantify how human-caused climate change has influenced the likelihood of the UK recording annual average temperature in excess of 10C. 

We use a Met Office system developed for rapid attribution of extreme events. It is built upon well-established and peer-reviewed risk-based methodology that estimates the probabilities of extreme events with and without the effect of human influence. The method uses large collections ​​of climate model simulations that are evaluated for how realistically they represent the variability of UK temperature.

The new analysis uses temperature data from 14 models drawn from the sixth, and most recent, phase of the global Coupled Model Intercomparison Project.  

One set of model simulations use only natural climate forcings (“NAT”) for the period 1850-2020, while another set use all natural and human-caused forcings (“ALL”) for the historical period and the SSP2-4.5 emissions scenario, often described as a “medium” or “middle-of-the-road” emissions scenario, out to 2100. 

These simulations are then able to provide estimates of the likelihood of the UK annual temperature exceeding 10C for a natural climate without human-caused greenhouse gases, the current climate taken as the period 2013-2032, and an end-of-century climate under a medium emissions scenario taken as the period 2081-2100. A reference baseline for all the experiments is the period 1901-1930.

The chart below shows how the NAT (green) and ALL (red) forcings model simulations compare to the UK-wide observed record (black). The observations and ALL simulations capture the warming of the UK climate since the late 20th century. However, this signal is not present in the NAT simulations, suggesting the human-caused origin of the warming trend. 

Timeseries of UK annual average temperature anomaly (relative to 1901-1930) for (black) observations and the CMIP6 (red) ALL and (green) NAT simulations. Credit: Met Office.

The estimated return period for a UK annual average temperature exceeding 10C in the NAT simulations is once every 528 years (with a range of 118 to 733). For the ALL simulations in the present day, this drops to once every 3.41 years (with a range of 3.22 to 3.64). For the ALL simulations in the future, this falls further to once every 1.26 years (with a range of 1.24 to 1.29).

The attribution study therefore suggests that the likelihood of an annual temperature in excess of 10C has increased by a factor of nearly 160 due to human-induced climate change. A warming climate means that an event that would have been exceptionally unlikely in the past has become one that we will increasingly see in the coming decades. By the end of the century, most years will be as warm as 2022.

Weather through the year

Unsurprisingly, with 2022 being the warmest year on record, it saw an abundance of temperatures well above their seasonal average. 

The chart below shows daily UK average temperatures through 2022, where the orange peaks are periods above average for the time of year and blue troughs show below average periods. (Note that the chart shows UK-wide average temperatures and so the daily highs and lows are not as extreme as seen in individual locations.)

Overall, approximately 70% of days were above the 1991-2020 average, with particularly notable warm or hot spells occurring in July, August, October and November. 

Only 30% of days were below average and December saw one of the most significant cold spells since December 2010.

Timeseries of daily UK average temperature during 2022. Orange shading are periods of above average temperature, blue shading is below average, and the solid black line is the 1991-2020 climatology by day of the year. The grey shading reflects the 5th, 10th, 90th and 95th percentiles of the temperature distribution and the red and blue lines are the highest and lowest values for each day of the year based on a dataset of daily data from 1960 to 2022. Credit: Met Office.

For rainfall, the wettest periods were seen in February and November, but over the period January to August there was a general deficit of rainfall. You can see this in the chart below, which shows the daily accumulated rainfall for the UK through 2022. The brown shaded area indicates a rainfall deficit building throughout the year.

By the end of August – following the 10th driest summer on record – the accumulated rainfall for the year-so-far was at its lowest since the notorious drought year of 1976. A relatively wet autumn went some way toward offsetting this, particularly through November, but the year still finished 10% below average. 

Timeseries showing rainfall accumulation through 2022 for the UK. Brown shading represents a deficit in rainfall compared to average for that point in the year, and blue shading is an excess of rainfall compared to average. The solid line represents the 1991-2020 average, grey shading shows the 5th, 10th, 90th and 95th percentiles of the distribution, and blue and red the lowest and highest values based on a dataset of daily rainfall from 1891 to 2022. Credit: Met Office.

The statistics for East Anglia show the same general pattern through the year, but the rainfall deficits through the year were larger for that region – concluding with an overall 24% deficit compared to the 1991-2020 average.

Chart as previous caption, but for East Anglia specifically. Credit: Met Office. Winter

Last year began with exceptionally high temperatures being recorded on 1 January, reaching 16.2C at St James Park, London and temperatures widely reaching 14C or 15C. A daily minimum temperature of 13.2C at Chivenor, Devon set a new January record for high daily minimum temperature. 

The temperatures soon returned closer to normal and January was an otherwise relatively benign month – with the exception of storms Malik and Corrie at the end of the month. It was the eighth warmest winter season for the UK and 1C above the 1991-2020 average.

In contrast, February witnessed some exceptional weather, with three named storms in quick succession around the middle of the month. Two rare red weather warnings were issued for storm Eunice, which set a new England wind gust record of 122mph – recorded at Needles, Isle of Wight – but also caused widespread damage and disruption from the high winds. 

Fortunately, severe coastal flooding from the associated storm surge was avoided in part because it did not coincide with high tide. Eunice was the most severe storm to affect England and Wales since February 2014.

The chart below illustrates that, when considering the historical context, there is currently no strong evidence that climate change is affecting storminess in the UK. The chart shows the number of individual days during which a maximum wind gust speed of 40 (pink), 50 (green) or 60 (blue) knots was recorded by at least 20 stations across the UK, for 1969 to 2021.

Because storms are influenced by a range of factors, the potential influence of climate change on UK storminess is complex. Nonetheless, factors such as rising sea levels and increased rainfall mean that some of the associated hazards from storms could increase with climate change.

Timeseries showing the count of the number of individual days each year during which a maximum wind gust speed of ≥40 (pink), 50 (green) and 60 (blue) knots (equivalent to 46, 58, 69 mph or 74, 93, 111 kph, respectively) has been recorded by at least 20 or more UK stations, from 1969 to 2021. Stations above 500 metres above sea level are excluded. Reproduced from Kendon et al. (2022). Spring

Spring continued the warm theme, with temperatures 0.8C above average and making it the fifth warmest spring in the UK record. Colder weather was largely confined to a cold snap in late March. 

March saw plenty of clear skies resulting in the sunniest March on record for Scotland and Northern Ireland and the second sunniest for the UK. Sunshine amounts were closer to average in April and slightly below for May, but the season overall recorded 6% more sunshine than the 1991-2020 average, not comparable to the exceptional spring of 2020, but maintaining a general trend toward sunnier springs. 

The chart below shows how UK sunshine in spring (brown line) compares to the 1919-2022 record (dark blue line). Overall, the most recent decade (2013-22) has had approximately 6% more spring sunshine than 1991-2020 and 16% more than the 1961-90 average.

Timeseries of UK spring sunshine duration (hours) by year (dark blue line) for 1919-2022. The other lines show the 2022 value (brown), the 1991-2020 average (pink), the trend (black dashed), and the lowest (blue dashed) and highest (red dashed) values in the record. Credit: Met Office.

The sunny weather was unsurprisingly also associated with generally dry conditions, particularly in March, with just 58% of average rainfall, and 68% during April. May did see some quite wet conditions in western Scotland, but it remained somewhat drier further south.

Summer

The summer of 2022 was exceptional for the UK. It was the fourth warmest on record for the UK, with notable heatwaves in both July and August. There is very little separating the UK’s hottest summers on record: 2018 (15.8C), 2006 (15.8C), 2003 (15.7C), 2022 (15.7C), 1976 (15.7C).

For England, it was nominally the joint warmest on record with 2018. The summer was also notable, but not record breaking, for dry and sunny conditions – with 62% of average summer rainfall and 115% of average sunshine.

However, the summer of 2022 will go down in UK history books for being the first year that recorded a daily maximum temperature in excess of 40C. 

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In fact, seven locations hit or exceeded 40C and 46 stations exceeded the previous UK all-time temperature record of 38.7C at locations from Kent to North Yorkshire. For example, a temperature of 40.3C at Coningsby, Lincolnshire on 19 July was 18C above the climatological July average for the site. 

The northerly extent of the heat was remarkable, with 38.8C reached at Leeming in North Yorkshire and 34.8C at Charterhall in the Scottish Borders, setting a new Scottish temperature record. Northern Ireland came within just 0.1C of its own record, which had been set just 12 months previously in July 2021.

A Met Office study has already shown that the likelihood of reaching 40C in the UK had increased by a factor of approximately 10 due to human-caused climate change. A rapid attribution analysis conducted after the 2022 summer heatwave by the World Weather Attribution team reported similar findings. 

The blue line chart below shows the UK highest daily maximum temperature by year, from 1910 to 2022. The black line shows a rolling 10-year average. While the UK has, on average, warmed by close to 1C, the highest temperatures recorded have been increasing at a much faster rate and by as much as 1C per decade.

Timeseries of the highest daily maximum temperature recorded by year 1910-2022 (blue line) and the 10-year rolling average (black). Credit: Met Office. Autumn (and December)

The warm theme continued into the autumn, with each of September, October and November being warmer than average. Overall, it was the UK’s third warmest autumn in a record that goes back to 1884, with only 2006 and 2011 having been warmer. 

However, the weather was generally much more unsettled during autumn and rainfall was above average, with some heavy rain spells resulting in impacts from surface-water flooding

It was the wettest autumn for the UK since 2000 and the 13th wettest in the UK series from 1836. This rainfall went some way toward reversing significant rainfall deficits that had built up through the summer months.

During the first half of December there was a prolonged spell of cold weather and snowfall. This was the coldest spell of weather for the year, reaching a minimum of -17.3C at Braemar in Aberdeenshire, Scotland on 13 December. The same location recorded a daily maximum of -9.3C the day before. 

The duration and severity of this cold spell made it one of the most significant cold snaps since December 2010. Although the UK has experienced a number of severe cold spells in recent decades, the number and severity of them is declining. You can see this in the chart below, which shows the number of days per year with a UK average temperature of less than 2C (blue line) and less than 0C (orange).

For example, comparing 1991-2020 with 1961-1990, the number of days with UK average temperatures below 2C has decreased by one third and days with temperatures below 0C have decreased by a half.

Timeseries showing the count of days with UK area-average mean temperature (blue) less than 2C (blue line) and less than <0C (orange), from 1960 to 2022. Credit: Met Office.

Overall, 2022 was an exceptional year for the UK climate. Further analysis and statistics will be published in the Met Office annual State of the UK Climate report in July 2023.

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Categories: I. Climate Science

Analysis: How UK newspapers commented on energy and climate change in 2022

The Carbon Brief - Wed, 01/11/2023 - 00:00

Energy has frequently been at the top of the news agenda over the past year, after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine sent fossil-fuel prices – and, thus, the cost of living – soaring.

In response, the editorial pages of UK newspapers – which serve as the formal “voice” of the publications and are sometimes referred to as “leaders” or “leading articles” – have been filled with proposed solutions to the crisis.

Carbon Brief analysis of more than 400 climate- and energy-related newspaper editorials published in 2022 shows how some outlets have used the situation to push for fossil-fuel extraction, during a crisis caused almost entirely by rising fossil-fuel prices.

For example, it reveals unprecedented levels of lobbying by titles such as the Sun to reverse the government’s ban on fracking in England. This effort might have succeeded, were it not for the abrupt end to Liz Truss’s short spell as prime minister.

The popularity of nuclear power in the UK press also reached a record high in 2022. By contrast, support for renewables, such as wind and solar power, dipped, despite the vital role they are expected to play in weaning the UK off costly fossil gas.

This analysis builds on previous work published by Carbon Brief showing how the UK’s right-leaning newspapers had broadly been on a journey towards acceptance of climate policies over the past decade.

Energy crisis dominates 

Of the 413 climate- and energy-related editorials analysed by Carbon Brief in 2022, 149 addressed renewable energy, nuclear power and fracking – more than double the previous year. 

The surge of interest in energy-related topics can be seen in the chart below. Nuclear power and fracking show the most dramatic upticks. (See: Record backing of fracking.) 

@media (max-width: 450px){#iframeMob{display:none}} @media (min-width: 450px){#mob{display:none}} Number of UK newspaper editorials mentioning renewables, nuclear power and fracking each year between 2011 and 2022. Source: Carbon Brief analysis. Chart by Josh Gabbatiss using Highcharts.

(Other energy-related issues, such as the proposed Cumbrian coal mine, are captured in Carbon Brief’s wider database of newspaper editorials, but were not part of this analysis.)

Predictably, the need to meet the UK’s energy demand with domestic sources was by far the most common reason for supporting all three of the technologies analysed.

Both fracking and nuclear power saw massive surges in support. In 2022, 46% of the energy-related editorials analysed spoke positively about nuclear power, the highest proportion ever recorded in Carbon Brief’s analysis.

@media (min-width: 450px){#mob{display:none}} Percentage share of energy-related editorials in UK newspapers containing pro- and anti-nuclear sentiments between 2011 and 2022. Source: Carbon Brief analysis. Chart by Joe Goodman using Highcharts.

Support for nuclear power was seen across the ideological spectrum of newspapers, but was most common among right-leaning titles. 

Newspapers such as the Daily Telegraph highlighted the need for new nuclear power, while taking the opportunity to criticise past Labour and Conservative-Liberal Democrat coalition governments for failing to invest in it. 

(It is worth noting that many of these newspapers have been critical of UK nuclear efforts in the past, generally due to the high costs of construction of Hinkley Point C in Somerset.)

Editorial in Daily Telegraph, 21 March 2022.

Unlike the other two technologies, support for renewables in energy-related editorials dropped slightly in 2022. The percentage of energy-related editorials that were pro-renewables fell from 57% to 38%, while the percentage of those that were anti-renewables increased from 7% to 15%. 

This was largely due to right-leaning titles emphasising the “unreliability” of wind and solar power for providing the UK’s energy needs.

Editorial in Daily Mail, 7 March 2022.

In fact, Carbon Brief’s analysis finds that, while 24 editorials explicitly recommended increasing UK gas extraction and 17 recommended nuclear power as solutions to the energy crisis in 2022, only six proposed building new renewable power capacity. 

For a period at the start of the year, many right-leaning titles even suggested cutting “green levies” – which support low-carbon and social measures through people’s bills. For example, the Daily Mail ran an editorial in April titled: “Axe the green taxes.”

This was in spite of these levies making up just 3% of bills in October. Meanwhile, in August last year, the surge in UK wholesale gas prices since 2019 explained 96% of the increase in household energy bills, according to Carbon Brief analysis.

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Record backing of fracking

Fracking for shale gas has consistently been more popular in the UK press than among the public. It has been banned in England since 2019, following extensive protests and minor earthquakes at drilling sites.

Yet, in 2022, right-leaning newspapers – especially the Sun, Daily Telegraph and Daily Mail – published unprecedented numbers of editorials praising fracking and calling for the ban to be overturned.

This can be seen in the chart below, with the Sun alone publishing more pro-fracking editorials in a single year than all UK newspapers combined have ever managed before – 32 in total.

@media (max-width: 450px){#iframeMob{display:none}} @media (min-width: 450px){#mob{display:none}} Number of pro-fracking editorials in UK newspapers between 2011 and 2022. Source: Carbon Brief analysis. Chart by Josh Gabbatiss using Highcharts.

With headlines such as “frack backing”, “now frack on” and “hail shale”, again and again the Sun said the government “must lift the fracking ban” because “producing cheap gas from shale is our best bet”. 

The practice was framed as a way to cut dependence on expensive gas from Russia and other foreign nations. By far the most common theme – appearing in 54 of the 69 editorials that mentioned fracking – was the need for shale gas to satisfy the UK’s energy needs.

In reality, extracting shale gas in the UK would be unlikely to yield significant benefits for either energy security or prices, especially in the short term.

However, the lobbying barrage from one the nation’s most-read newspapers may have had some impact. 

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While pre-energy crisis government polling suggested that just 17% of people in the UK supported fracking, more recent figures from autumn 2022 show this has risen to 25%, with energy security given as the biggest reason. (Support for renewable energy is much higher, at about 88%.)

The message also appeared to cut through to the government during Liz Truss’s short-lived spell as prime minister. She broke a manifesto pledge to overturn the fracking ban and was hailed by right-leaning newspapers for doing so.

However, this decision was soon reversed when Truss was replaced by the current prime minister Rishi Sunak.

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Shift away from climate action

Overall, there were fewer editorials in UK newspapers focusing on climate change in 2022 – 126 compared to 185 the previous year. However, the number still remained at the relatively elevated level it has been at since 2018.

As the chart below shows, there was a fairly pronounced dip in support for climate action – and increase in opposition – among right-leaning titles. This was driven by a selection of articles in the Daily Mail, Sun, Daily Telegraph and their Sunday equivalents.

@media (max-width: 450px){#iframeMob{display:none}} @media (min-width: 450px){#mob{display:none}} Percentage share of climate-related editorials in right-leaning UK newspapers containing pro- and anti-climate action sentiments between 2011 and 2022. Source: Carbon Brief analysis. Chart by Joe Goodman using Highcharts.

Notably, in contrast to a decade ago, 2022 marked the fourth year in a row that no editorials rejected either the existence of climate change or the science underpinning it.

Instead, criticism was reserved for a handful of pet topics among these right-leaning newspapers. These include the perceived high costs of pursuing climate policies and the “eco-idiot” protesters pushing for more ambitious climate action in the UK.

One notable editorial in the Mail on Sunday took aim at the “astronomical costs of pursuing a net-zero utopia”. It took the energy crisis, which is primarily the result of reliance on fossil fuels, as a cue to reassess the UK’s net-zero commitment.

Editorial in Mail on Sunday, 6 March 2022.

Another contentious topic for the Sun and the Daily Mail was the discussion at the COP27 climate summit around loss-and-damage finance – invariably described as climate “reparations”.

The concept was branded as “lunacy”, with the newspapers downplaying the UK’s contribution to historical emissions. The Sun also noted that Pakistan, one of the expected recipients of such funds after suffering flood damages of more than $30bn this year, “can afford nukes”.

Editorial in the Sun, 7 November 2022.

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Targeting climate activists

Around half of the editorials that pushed back against climate action did so by criticising those involved in it, especially climate protesters. 

Activists were variously described by the UK’s right-leaning newspapers as “doomsday cult ­idiots”, “eco-anarchists”, “sociopaths” and “green extremists”.

Last year saw Just Stop Oil emerge on the scene as the latest group engaging in disruptive, non-violent direct action to push for more ambitious climate action. This has included blocking roads, sabotaging petrol pumps and spraying soup at works of art.

If one of the group’s goals was to attract media attention they have been successful. 

Carbon Brief analysis of the editorial database shows that, in its first year of operation, Just Stop Oil has attracted more outraged editorials in the UK’s right-leaning newspapers than even Extinction Rebellion managed amid its blockades in 2019.

@media (max-width: 450px){#iframeMob{display:none}} @media (min-width: 450px){#mob{display:none}} Number of editorials in right-leaning UK newspapers criticising climate activist groups between 2019 and 2022. Source: Carbon Brief analysis. Chart by Josh Gabbatiss using Highcharts.

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Methodology

This is a 2022 update of previous analysis conducted for the period 2011-2021 by Carbon Brief in association with Sylvia Hayes, a PhD researcher at the University of Exeter.

The full methodology can be found in the original article, including the coding schema used to assess the language and themes used in editorials concerning climate change and energy technologies.

The analysis is based on Carbon Brief’s editorial database, which is regularly updated with leading articles from the UK’s major newspapers.

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