Centre for Future Work

On October 28, the Bank of Canada increased its policy interest rate by one-quarter percentage point, to 2.5%. Commercial banks increased their lending rates in tandem, with their prime mortgage rates rising to 4.7% (and higher than that for credit cards and most other loans). Higher rates will slow down a national economy already staggering from the effects of the Canada-U.S. trade war and other shocks.

The Bank blamed a surge in inflation resulting from the latest global oil price shock, the result of U.S. President Donald Trump’s war in the Persian Gulf. Oil prices have stayed high for 8 months (despite Trump’s repeated promises the war would end soon). Given Canada’s policy of domestic petroleum prices to the world roller-coaster, this has caused dramatic increases in domestic gasoline, diesel, and fuel oil prices. The longer oil prices stay high, the greater will be the pass-through of higher energy costs into other parts of the economy. Some of this pass-through is already visible (in higher air fares, delivery charges, etc.). More is likely in coming months, as businesses in other industries pass on their own higher energy bills to customers through higher prices for everything from food to housing to services.

With the hike in interest rates (the first since 2023), Canadians will now pay twice for the current oil shock: first at the pumps, and now through higher interest rates. The Bank admits that Canada’s economy has excess capacity and too much unemployment, but it is lifting rates anyway. The real economy needs lower rates. But monetary policy is going the other way, to fight an external price shock that has no relation to domestic employment, growth, or production costs.

The Centre for Future Work’s False Profits research project has documented how much Canadians needlessly pay because of Trump’s war: $3 billion extra on gasoline alone in the second quarter of 2026, a toll which grows each week. Canada’s dependence on fossil fuels, and our policy (dating back to the 1980s) of mirroring the global oil roller coaster in our own petroleum prices (even for petroleum produced, refined, and consumed in Canada) are now the biggest threats to affordability and the cost of living in Canada.

The Bank of Canada expects the pass-through of oil prices into broader inflation will intensify in coming months (the same thing occurred in 2022-23, following the oil price shock resulting from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine). But the Bank’s only answer is to throw more Canadians out of work to offset inflation caused by global chaos and oil industry greed. This is deeply wrong.

Centre for Future Work Director Jim Stanford appeared on CTV News Channel to discuss the rate hike, its causes, and the inadequacy of current monetary policy (which fights any and all inflation, no matter what its causes, with contractionary rate hikes).

He argued that we need a broader understanding of the causes of inflation (which cannot always be blamed on ‘excess demand’) and a broader toolkit of responses. Preventing price shocks in the first place is vital. To that end, rethinking petroleum prices (the biggest culprit in recent inflation) is essential. Electricity prices in most parts of Canada have been very stable through the multiple economic disruptions of recent years, because they are regulated by provincial authorities on the basis of cost of production (rather than speculative futures markets). As a country which produces far more petroleum than it uses, Canada has the capacity to manage petroleum prices more stably and fairly.

The post Bank of Canada Drives Rates Higher, When Canada Needs Lower appeared first on Centre for Future Work.

Harm reduction services and nonprofit supportive housing play a vital role in addressing the overlapping crises of opioid overdose, mental health, and homelessness that are causing so much hardship in many parts of Canada. These services have been widely debated and researched, but this discourse often overlooks the workforce that provides these services, whose skills and knowledge are often taken for granted.

During the summer of 2026, a research team based at the University of British Columbia’s School of Social Work undertook a study involving 30 online and in-person interviews with frontline workers and managers working in harm reduction and supportive housing in Vancouver’s downtown eastside (DTES). The interviews explored the knowledge and skills of harm reduction workers, and what changes they would recommend to strengthen this work. The findings documentd the wide array of finely-honed skills, knowledge and practices used by these workers, as they endeavour to provide dignity and care for those facing the challenges of homelessness, mental illness and addiction.

The findings of this innovative research are contained in a new report, ‘Do More for Less and Get Blamed for It’: What Harm Reduction Workers Bring to their Jobs and their Community, by Donna Baines, Oliver Hsueh and Denise Cheung. Their research confirms that the workers providing these frontline services bring a rich and multi-dimensional set of skills, both formal and informal, to their jobs. Investing in those workers, including through expanded training, improved safety and working conditions, and adequate compensation and benefits, must be an essential aspect of future efforts to improve these services and better help the populations they serve.

The post New Research Documents Vital Skills of Harm Reduction Workers appeared first on Centre for Future Work.

U.S. President Donald Trump’s abrupt and erratic trade policies have caused substantial disruptions around the world. But no countries have been more exposed to the twists and turns of his policies than Canada and Mexico: America’s neighbours and largest trading partners.

The three-country trade agreement, the Canada-U.S.-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA) that Trump himself negotiated and implemented in 2020 has not held back his unilateral and illegal actions.

For labour and equality advocates, Trump’s actions create a quandary: they oppose his policies (which have hurt workers in the U.S., as well as other countries), but without seeming to endorse the pre-Trump status quo as the ideal model. After all, the CUSMA (and the 1994 NAFTA, before it) imposed a very one-sided, corporate-friendly set of rules on the continental economy. The previous trade deals guaranteed freedom of movement and special protections for investors and multinational corporations, while curtailing the ability of national and sub-national governments to limit the economic, environmental, and social fallout of corporate decisions.

It is possible to both oppose Trump’s tariffs, but also oppose the corporate-oriented trade arrangements which he now ignores. And it is possible to envision a continental economy that supports development, living standards, and sustainability in all parts of North America, rejecting the false worker-versus-worker ideology which Trump has weaponized in his trade war.

To that end, Centre for Future Work Director Jim Stanford recently participated in a tri-national project to develop a proposal for North American trade and cooperation that prioritizes living standards, labour and human rights, environmental protection, and income equality. The project was hosted by an initiative called Game Changers, based at the University of Massachusetts—Amherst. The Game Changers network assembled progressive proposals in numerous policy areas in advance of the coming U.S. mid-term elections, with the goal of showing Americans (and others) that there are workable, hopeful alternatives to the increasing authoritarianism of Trump and his compliant MAGA base.

Stanford joined Thea Lee, Hector de la Cueva, Luis Ranger, and Jasper Andrée in developing a proposal titled ‘Democratizing North American Trade.’ The proposal is described more fully in:

A two-page policy brief which summarizes its main features.

A full 25-page paper including a critique of both Trump’s tariffs and the previous CUSMA deal, and a summary of six priority features of a more democratic approach to continental trade.

A two-minute shareable video dramatizing the major themes.

A one-hour webinar where the authors describe the paper and discuss how to advance these ideas in the current political and economic crisis.

Readers are invited to share any of these materials throughout your own networks. We are grateful to the Game Changers network for the opportunity to participate in this tri-national project, showing that a better North American economy is indeed possible.

The post A Tri-National Vision for a North American Economy that Works for Workers appeared first on Centre for Future Work.

Ever since Canada’s negotiators ended talks for a new trade agreement with the U.S., President Donald Trump’s insults and threats to America’s northern neighbour have become more aggressive, and bizarre, than ever. He has renamed a Great Lake, imposed new 50% tariffs on further Canadian-made products, compared us unfavourably to North Korea, threatened still more tariffs because we use a different dollar, and posted AI images insulting our Prime Minister.

Underneath all of the trolling lurks a more sinister strategy: Trump wants to convince Canadians that we will pay an enormous economic price for resisting his demands, to the point that Canada’s viability as a nation will be jeopardized. In this commentary, originally published in the Toronto Star, Centre for Future Work Director Jim Stanford dissects five of Trump’s most far-fetched lies – and argues Canada’s economic resilience in the past 18 months has already disproved Trump’s claim that we cannot exist without him.

Lies the President Told You by Jim Stanford

Donald Trump can’t tolerate being trumped. What’s left of his influence – with voters, with other countries, with increasingly restive Republicans – depends on a cultivated image of dominance. No matter what you think of his policies, don’t get in his way, or you will face retribution.

There’s no other way to understand Trump’s desperate and seemingly unhinged response to Canada’s decision to end fruitless trade talks. If a band of polite Canadians can stand up to his extortion, what sort of resistance might be inspired among others harmed by his policies?

So Trump has unleashed a northward torrent of abuse – ranging from the economic (imposing still more tariffs), to the ridiculous (renaming Lake Ontario), to the disturbing (an AI image showing him threatening a supine Mark Carney with a hockey stick).

Comedian Jon Stewart summed up Trump’s strategy as trying to “troll [Canada] into submission.”

Amidst all the nonsense, Trump and his lieutenants are rolling out new justifications for targeting Canada. Like his initial excuses when he launched the trade war last year (fentanyl smuggling, military underspending, Canadian content rules), they’re all unfounded. Here’s a handy guide for debunking his latest doozies:

The trade deficit with Canada is $90 billion: Trump’s numerical claims about the Canada-U.S. trade imbalance have always been imaginary. Last year he threw out several invented numbers, ranging as high as $200 billion. This week he claimed $90 billion.

The true deficit for 2025, based on official U.S. government data, was $27 billion. That consisted of a $55 billion deficit on merchandise, partly offset by a $28 billion U.S. surplus on services. (Yes, Donald, services count.)

That’s just 3% of the massive two-way $900 billion bilateral flow. America’s trade with Canada is far more balanced than with the rest of the world – adding to the mystery of why Canada is suddenly Public Enemy Number One.

The deficit constitutes a subsidy to Canada: Whatever its size, Trump claims a trade deficit is equivalent to a subsidy. In reality, a trade deficit simply means one country buys more from another country, than it sells to that country.

When you spend $200 at the grocery store, it’s not a “subsidy.” You’ve bought things you need. America needs what it buys from Canada; our exports are better or cheaper than from other sources.

Any actual subsidy goes the other way. Other countries (including Canada) supply the U.S. with trillions of dollars of capital each year. That’s what allows the U.S. to run a perpetual trade deficit, every year for the last fifty.

The U.S. would save money by cutting off trade with Canada: Canada is the largest market for U.S. exports, $426 billion worth in 2025 alone. Ending that would cause massive recession in the U.S., not just Canada.

Cutting off your nose to spite your face doesn’t make you feel better. It doesn’t save money, either.

Canada cheats at trade with its dollar: One of Trump’s most bizarre recent posts claimed that Canada’s dollar (presently worth about 72 cents U.S.) is used to rip off America. He pledged to stop this, without specifying how.

Yes, our currency has the same name. But that hardly means it should be worth the same. 25 other countries also have “dollars”. Are they cheating, too?

Exchange rates are determined by capital flows, investor expectations, comparative inflation, and many other factors. By boosting inflation and destabilizing investor confidence with his enormous deficits, Trump’s policies might indeed drive down America’s dollar. Then he can stop blaming Canada.

Canada can’t survive without the U.S.: This is Trump’s biggest, and most dangerous, lie. And getting us to believe it is central to his intimidation strategy.

Despite reduced U.S.-bound exports, Canada’s economy has continued growing. Two-thirds of those lost merchandise exports have been offset by new exports to other countries. And almost 80% of our GDP is produced and consumed right here, by Canadians, for Canadians. Trump can’t touch that.

Yes, it will be a bumpy ride to disentangle our economy from overreliance on what is now a failed democracy next door. But as the 10th largest economy in the world, with a wealth of natural and human resources, and a stronger capacity to solve problems together, we will most definitely survive without Trump’s America.

The post Debunking Five of Donald Trump’s Big Lies About Canada appeared first on Centre for Future Work.