Plan now for a just transition at Mossmorran: the government must give a lead

By staff - Just Transition Partnership, April 4, 2024

Briefing for the debate in Scottish Parliament on 7 March on Site-specific Just Transition for Mossmorran

Since the publication of A Meaningfully Just Transition for Mossmorran in Summer 2022, progress appears to have stalled. As far as we know, none of its recommendations have been implemented. Neither national nor local government has publicly stated a commitment to lead the production of a Just Transition Plan for Mossmorran, and meanwhile the Scottish Government has repeatedly delayed its Climate Change Plan, the Energy Strategy and the sectoral Just Transition Plans.

The urgent need for regional just transition plans now appears increasingly important after the announcement by PetroIneos of its intention to close its refinery at Grangemouth which employs approximately 500 workers.

As the report pointed out “Mossmorran natural gas liquids processing plants face an uncertain future, with significant vulnerabilities due to the climate and environmental emergency”. This understanding (which applies to the Grangemouth plants as well) underlines the need to plan well in advance for a just transition which protects workers and communities and builds new green industries. Just Transition Planning should lead the process of transforming our economy, rather than being a response to crisis.

Instead of relying on market-based policies, the public sector must now lead the implementation of public policy. This requires the parallel development of coherent plans and sufficient investment. The top line responsibility lies with Government, in partnership with unions, businesses and communities, to produce transformed a vision for a better economy, in line with Climate Change targets; and clear timelines for changes in each sector. These must guide the transition.

The ten points below are crucial if we are to achieve a Just Transition for Mossmorran.

1 Government should make Just Transition happen, not just support, incentivise and de-risk

The Government should not start from the assumption that a just transition is going to happen, one way or another. The essential question is how we can ensure that a just transition does actually happen in Mossmorran, Fife and every area of Scotland, because there are not many signs for confidence about this. It is the role of Scottish, local and UK Government to do this, not just to support and incentivise other key actors like energy businesses. Scotland’s just transition cannot be left up to the whims of market forces.

2 A just transition must be worker-led

The industrial changes needed to meet climate targets can and must be made in ways which protect and improve the livelihoods and working conditions of the affected workforce. Workers themselves are best placed to determine what a just transition means for their workplace, their industry and their communities. Government must engage workers and trade unions directly in just transition planning and, equally importantly, they must make Government support for business conditional on trade union access and collective bargaining at company and sectoral level.

3 Just Transition Plans should cover the whole local economy, not just fossil-fuel sectors

Although Mossmorran is one of the industrial sites in Fife most acutely affected, the need to decarbonise applies to the whole economy of area; and equally future employment opportunities for industrial workers will be generated by other sectors as well as energy. Communities around Mossmorran face the same climate challenges and just transition opportunities as any other Scottish community. Therefore the Just Transition Plan for the area must also cover transport, public services, the heating of buildings and the food and farming sectors. Involving community engagement, is necessary if the full benefits of a just transition are to be planned and anticipated.

4 Regional and sectoral Just Transition Plans must consider supply chains

Research for the STUC suggests that, with the right policies, meeting climate targets could create 367,000 jobs in Scotland, but without the right policies, job creation will be less than 131,00.^2..Crucial to this is ensuring that we retain and create manufacturing supply chain jobs in Scotland. The Scottish Government must ensure local manufacturing jobs are created by requiring local content in all green energy leases and planning consents, so building supply chains in Scotland. Investment should be targeted to sectors and enterprises in the supply chain to complement requirements for a minimum proportion of local content, as well as to the necessary infrastructure.

5 A Just Transition Plan for Mossmorran should draw on sectoral Just Transition Plans …

In principle, area just transition plans should be based on the sectoral plans for the industries which are of greatest relevance. The first will be the Energy Strategy and Just Transition Plan (ESJTP), the draft of which did not include reliable projections of the demand and supply for fossil fuels nationally, let alone as they might apply to the plant at Mossmorran, and it did not contain a workforce plan. The final version of the ESJTP must correct these omissions if it is to be a useful framework for local plans, including and beyond Mossmorran. There is no known timetable for a sectoral just transition plan for the petrochemical and plastics sector within which the Mossmorran plant would fall. Furthermore, just transition planning is necessary at the business level. Every important enterprise should already be making plans for decarbonisation and working with trade unions and its workforce to manage the process of change equitably.

6 … but starting the process should not be delayed until sectoral plans are completed

However, area plans should not be delayed merely because sectoral plans have not been completed. Pragmatically, just transition planning should start for all regions and sectors as soon as possible and run in parallel – they should influence each other. As the Framework says, these will be adaptable and iterative documents. This process should involve the engagement from the very start of representative organisations of the workforces and communities most affected, including trades union councils.

7 Government must lead the process, within the framework of the Climate Change Act 2019

The process should be initiated by the Scottish Government and the local authority, Fife Council, but should proceed in partnership with local trade unions and business organisations and engage with community bodies. The framing should be provided by the targets set in the Climate Change Act 2019 and the contribution to that which must be made within the area. It should consider how the required changes will be made to happen and their implications for workers and communities, in particular changes in the types and numbers of jobs. On that foundation it should make plans for the investments needed, for the relevant skills, the offer of jobs and support for the workers affected and the protections and improvements needed by local communities.

8 The key Just Transition Outcomes should guide planning and monitoring of the benefits

Both the forward planning and the monitoring of the local Just Transition Plan should be based on a clear and measurable set of targets. The outcomes for these should be derived from the Scottish Governments’ Just Transition Outcomes. However these are not, in our opinion, specific enough – furthermore there are now two versions, one in the Framework and the other in the Energy Strategy. In our view the key indicators are:

1. Job creation – numbers in new industries or processes
2. Emissions reductions achieved
3. Numbers of people making job transitions
4. Skills necessary for transition – delivery and utilisation
5. Pay, conditions and collective bargaining in the sectors affected
6. Distribution of costs and benefits to communities – reductions of inequalities

These indicators give a clear view of what we believe should be the benefits of the just transition for the Mossmorran and broader Fife community.

9 The Just Transition Plan has to attend to delivery so should include financial projections

Within the overall trajectory, commitments regarding investments needed to make it happen will have to be sought from both business and the public sector. A government fund comparable to the Just Transition Fund for Northeast Scotland should be considered for Fife. Wherever public money and assets are involved, requirements should stipulate both the commitment of private companies their share of the plan’s targets and ways of tying down the public benefits – where possible this should include options for extension of public ownership to give a direct stake to the community. Just Transition Plans should be honest about the scale of investment needed, and be clear about the benefits of public investment over reliance on inward investment.

10 Proper skills planning should respond to labour demand in the plant and the area

Across Scotland he skills required to deliver the transition are not being invested in at the necessary pace or scale. There is too little work being done on upskilling workers to enable them to move to new industries when they come on-line. Colleges are facing huge cuts in funding. Investment in skills training should respond to assessments of labour demand developed within the plan. Funding for training of the existing workforce should be expected from employers, while colleges should receive and commit sufficient budget to training of new recruits into the relevant local sectors.

1 A meaningfully just transition for Mossmorran, Transition Economics 2022

2 https://stuc.org.uk/files/Policy/STUC_Green_Jobs.pdf

Disclaimer: The views expressed here are not the official position of the IWW (or even the IWW’s EUC) and do not necessarily represent the views of anyone but the author.