I. Climate Science

Open access notables

Fossil fuel emissions dominate Northern Hemisphere CO2 seasonal cycle trends under mitigation scenarios, Jin et al., Nature Communications

Variations in the atmospheric CO2 seasonal cycle across the Northern Hemisphere have historically been dominated by terrestrial ecosystems, making ground-based observations a reliable proxy for terrestrial carbon dynamics. However, whether this dominance will persist in the future remains uncertain. Here we combine atmospheric transport modeling with factorial simulations to assess and attribute future changes in the CO2 seasonal cycle through 2100. We show that the dominant drivers of these changes shift fundamentally across scenarios. Under the high-emission scenario (SSP5-8.5), strengthening land sinks dominate and amplify CO2 seasonal variability, preserving ground-based observations as a reliable terrestrial proxy. In contrast, under the low-emission scenario (SSP1-2.6), CO2 seasonal amplitude declines widely, driven primarily by reduced fossil fuel emissions and their dampened seasonality. Consequently, established ground-based CO2 observations may no longer reliably track terrestrial carbon dynamics under mitigation pathways, underscoring the need for new approaches for monitoring and climate policy verification.

Dynamic evaporative and radiative cooling for efficient year-round energy savings, Zhou et al., Science Advances

Electricity-free radiative cooling (RC) techniques are gaining ever-increasing attention to decrease energy consumption and carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. However, the cooling power of RC in summer is severely limited by atmospheric window constraints and its negative effect in winter offsets annual energy savings in four-season regions. This study introduces a dynamic evaporative and radiative cooling (DERC) device to maximize the cooling power in hot summer and achieve year-round dynamic thermal management. Adaptive to changes in environmental temperature, the DERC device demonstrates dynamic regulation of water evaporation, along with notable modulation of solar and thermal radiation (ΔAsol = 87%; ΔεBroadband = 63%). Theoretical and real-time experiments demonstrate that the DERC device is more energy-efficient than cutting-edge dynamic radiative cooling (DRC) techniques. The energy-saving simulations indicate that the DERC device yields over 40% primary energy savings and CO2 emission reduction compared to the DRC device. This DERC device represents a conceptual advancement, paving the way for global energy savings and emission reductions.

Heating up the headlines: How tabloid framing reshaped Germany's Buildings Energy Act, Loschke et al., Energy Research & Social Science

Media has become a decisive force in shaping climate and energy policy, influencing not only which issues gain attention but also how they are framed and contested. This paper examines how BILD, Germany's largest tabloid, transformed the 2023 reform of the Buildings Energy Act (GEG) into one of the most polarizing political controversies in recent German history. Analyzing a corpus of 333 BILD articles from January 2023 to March 2024, we identify three dominant rhetorical strategies – personalisation, economic alarmism, and ideological framing – epitomised by the term “Heizungshammer”, which appeared over 250 times in BILD alone and spread to more than 1100 articles across the broader press. These narratives produced concrete policy outcomes: the progressive dilution and eventual abandonment of the 65% renewable energy obligation, the cancellation of planned building efficiency standards, and a reversal of Germany's position in EU negotiations on the Energy Performance of Buildings Directive. The case demonstrates that tabloid framing can migrate directly into legislative outcomes, with measurable consequences for climate governance ambition, highlighting the fragility of climate legislation in an age of digital populism.

Shades of Swedish climate scepticism: an exploration of explanatory factors on doubts about climate change, Mendy & Lindvall, Environmental Sociology 

This study examines the drivers of climate scepticism in Sweden, distinguishing between epistemic scepticism – doubts about the scientific evidence of climate change – and response scepticism, concerning doubts about the need or effectiveness of climate mitigation. Using a large-scale survey (n = 5280), we analyse how variants of political ideology – regarding economic and material aspects, and cultural values captured on the GAL-TAN scale – and trust shape these forms of scepticism. While relatively few respondents expressed epistemic scepticism, response scepticism was more prevalent. Low trust in scientists is the strongest determinant of epistemic scepticism, alongside TAN-oriented ideology. TAN orientation associates more strongly with response scepticism than epistemic scepticism, suggesting that individuals who accept climate science may still oppose mitigation policies, possibly due to a proclivity of social dominance orientation or political cues. A novel result is that attributional uncertainty, beliefs that climate is changing equally due to human and natural causes, is found to strongly associate with response scepticism, suggesting that more effective climate communication could alleviate such scepticism. The paper underscores the need to disentangle social mechanisms behind different sceptical climate beliefs and to refine the concept of response scepticism, as it may reflect distinct psychological and political dynamics.

From this week's government/NGO section:

The Power Behind AI. Wave of Dirty Gas Power Plants Planned for Data Centers, Bird et al., The Environmental Integrity Project:

At least 74 natural gas-fired power plants are planned across the U.S. to provide energy for the rapidly growing data center industry. These proposed gas plants, which would be dedicated to serving data centers, are expected to generate 143 gigawatts of electricity – enough to power the state of California nearly three times over. The plants would also release nearly 662 million tons per year of greenhouse gas pollution, which would have the climate-warming effect of 140 million cars and trucks driving for a year or the emissions from the entire nation of Australia. Beyond greenhouse gases, this wave of power plants for data centers could also release 159,142 tons of health-harming air pollutants, including 44,281 tons of nitrogen oxides that contribute to smog and lung damage and 32,684 tons of fine particulate matter, which can trigger heart and asthma attacks. And this is just the tip of the iceberg. This pollution is a small fraction of the likely environmental effect of the booming artificial intelligence (AI) industry and affiliated data centers. These 74 planned gas plants, including 71 new power plants and three plant expansions, would be connected directly to data centers — so-called “behind-the-meter” power plants. These plants are designed to provide their electricity primarily to data centers and not to compete with local households and businesses on regional power grids. More power plants are being planned across the U.S. that will indirectly serve the growing data center industry along with other consumers on the grid, which will likely drive up electricity prices for nearby residents.

Code, carbon, kilowatts: AI’s hidden toll and the race to green the grid, Patrick Hoffmann and Katharina Utermöhl, Allianz Research

Data-center investment reached USD580bn in 2025, putting AI on track to become one of the world's fastest-growing sources of electricity demand. Installed capacity is expected to double by 2030, with AI workloads already accounting for 15–20% of data-center electricity use and potentially approaching 40% by the end of the decade. Yet the sector's environmental footprint remains underestimated as most analyses focus only on operational electricity use. The authors take a broader systems view across 26 countries (+93% of global capacity), adding lifecycle emissions, water use and AI's growing resource demand. Identical workloads can generate up to 24 ti mes more emissions depending on the emission intensity of the grid, making location as decisive as demand growth. Fossil-dependent grids in Indonesia, India and Malaysia exceed 600 gCO2/kWh, compared with under 30 gCO2/kWh in Norway and Sweden. The US and China, which host the largest data-center clusters, sit in between at 384 gCO2/kWh and 526 gCO2/kWh, respectively, giving Europe's cleaner power mix a structural advantage for low-carbon AI growth. These disparities are amplified by transmission and distribution losses of 10–15% in some markets, while less reliable grids raise electricity needs and dependence on backup generation. 125 articles in 56 journals by 1121 contributing authors

Physical science of climate change, effects

A Link between African Surface Temperature and the Eastward Shift of Precipitation over the Indo-Pacific Maritime Continent Region, Hagos et al., Journal of Climate 10.1175/jcli-d-25-0192.1

Antarctic Sea-Ice Loss Enhances East Asian Summer Precipitation Through Tropical Ocean Warming, Zhu et al., Earth s Future Open Access 10.1029/2026ef008147

Changing thunderstorms environments in Saudi Arabia: Frequency, variability and drivers of change, Rafei et al., Atmospheric Research 10.1016/j.atmosres.2026.109186

Glacier thinning causes warmer and drier regional climate at the Jostedalsbreen ice cap in western Norway, Haualand et al., Weather and Climate Dynamics Open Access 10.5194/wcd-7-1033-2026

Increases in Compound Drought and Hot Event in the Southwestern Tibetan Plateau and Its Link to Land-Atmosphere Interactions, Kong et al., International Journal of Climatology 10.1002/joc.70502

Increases in Southeast Pacific Low-Cloudiness During ENSO Warm Phases, Manapat et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2026gl122913

Moderate volcanic eruptions and extreme wildfires humidify the stratosphere, Peng et al., Nature 10.1038/s41586-026-10731-0

Reduced Wind Power on Oceanic Near-Inertial Internal Waves in a Warming Climate, Huang et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2025gl121340

The past evolution of marine heatwaves and their drivers in the southern North Sea, Schulzki et al., Ocean science Open Access 10.5194/os-22-2027-2026

Ultra flash cold events under global warming, He et al., Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-026-75094-6

Weak 21st-Century AMOC Response to Greenland Meltwater in a Strongly Eddying Ocean Model, Mehling & Dijkstra, Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2026gl122545

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Pacific Decadal Oscillation Modulates the Impacts of Bering Sea Ice Loss on North American Temperature, Geophysical Research Letters, 10.1029/2024gl109447 11 cites.

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Observations of climate change, effects

Factors Behind Change in Extremes: Change in Precipitation Is Dominated by Its Variability Whereas Change in Temperature by Its Mean, Dash & Maity, Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres 10.1029/2025jd045639

Increasing probability of humid-heat extremes outpaces that of dry-heat extremes in global land monsoon regions under anthropogenic warming, Li et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2026.06.024

Increasing spatially co-occurring droughts or pluvials in global major rivers during 1950-2014, Luo et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2026.06.021

Streamflow composition in U.S. rivers is shifting toward recent precipitation, Chen & Husic, Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-026-03788-2

Sustained decrease in snowfall over the Tibetan Plateau under a changing climate, Lin et al., Global and Planetary Change 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2026.105602

The Spatiotemporal Evolution of Arctic Climate Types and Its Attribution, Liu et al., Journal of Climate 10.1175/jcli-d-25-0207.1

Toward more frequent winter rain-on-snow events in the Pyrenees, Bonsoms, Atmospheric Research Open Access 10.1016/j.atmosres.2026.109184

Warming-driven runoff increase and shifted seasonality in the glacierized Hotan Basin in Central Asia, Xu et al., Global and Planetary Change 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2026.105579

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Temperatures and hypolimnetic oxygen in German lakes: Observations, future trends and adaptation potential, AMBIO, 10.1007/s13280-024-02046-z 15 cites.

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Instrumentation & observational methods of climate change, effects

Assessing the Ability of Tree-Ring-Derived Aridity Records to Detect Compound Drought and Heatwave Events, Taylor et al., Journal of Climate Open Access 10.1175/jcli-d-25-0472.1

ClimateBenchPress (v1.0): a benchmark for lossy compression of climate data, Reichelt et al., Geoscientific model development Open Access 10.5194/gmd-19-5933-2026

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
The Hawai‘i Climate Data Portal (HCDP), Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 10.1175/bams-d-23-0188.1 20 cites.

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Modeling, simulation & projection of climate change, effects

Atmospheric blocking representation in storm-resolving climate models under historical and future forcing, Dolores-Tesillos et al., Weather and Climate Dynamics Open Access 10.5194/wcd-7-1089-2026

Distinct Changes in Tropical Cyclone Seasons Between the Western North Pacific and North Atlantic Under High-Level Carbon Dioxide Climate Simulations, Wu et al., Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres 10.1029/2026jd046669

Evaluation and Future Changes of Mesoscale Convective Systems Over the Conterminous United States in High-Resolution Global and Regional Simulations, Fu & Prein, Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2026gl122237

Non-Uniform Reduction of the North Atlantic Tropical Cyclones in Response to the AMOC Weakening Under External Freshwater Forcing, Joshi & Zhang, Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2026gl123615

Projected Mid- and Late-Century Changes in Severe Convective Storms Across the United States From Dynamically Downscaled Climate Simulations, Roufa et al., International Journal of Climatology 10.1002/joc.70475

Projection the Risk of Winter Extreme Cold Spells in China Based on Statistical Modelling Under Global Warming of 1.5°C and 2.0°C, Zhu et al., International Journal of Climatology 10.1002/joc.70503

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Decreased ENSO post-2100 in response to formation of a permanent El Niño-like state under greenhouse warming, Nature Communications, 10.1038/s41467-024-50156-9 36 cites.

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Advancement of climate & climate effects modeling, simulation & projection

Barriers to incorporating dichotomy-based impervious surface datasets into high-resolution urban climate studies, Yu et al., Urban Climate Open Access 10.1016/j.uclim.2026.103008

Decade-Long Cloud-Resolving Model Simulations for Arabian Peninsula Winter Precipitation: Climatology and Extremes, Attada et al., Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology 10.1175/jamc-d-25-0123.1

Intrinsic Haline Variability as a Source of Uncertainty in Ocean Simulations Without Salinity Restoring, Berthet et al., Journal of Geophysical Research Oceans 10.1029/2026jc024169

Performance of CMIP6 models in simulating the impact of north tropical Atlantic SST variability on the ITCZ, Lu et al., Frontiers in Climate Open Access 10.3389/fclim.2026.1867838

Removing Implausible Precipitation Extremes from CMIP6 Climate Projections Using a GEV-Based Framework, maddahi et al., Journal of Hydrometeorology 10.1175/jhm-d-25-0099.1

Southern Ocean Barrier Layer Assessment in CMIP6 Models with Argo: Historical Bias and Possible Reasons, Jiang et al., Journal of Climate 10.1175/jcli-d-25-0417.1

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Assessing CMIP6 uncertainties at global warming levels, Climate Dynamics, 10.1007/s00382-024-07323-x 23 cites.

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Cryosphere & climate change

A global meta-analysis of snowpack changes on soil carbon and nitrogen cycling and greenhouse gas fluxes, Wang et al., Global and Planetary Change 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2026.105598

Artificial Flooding Leads to Thicker and Brighter Arctic Sea Ice, Blanchard-Wrigglesworth et al., Earth s Future Open Access 10.1029/2025ef007894

Increasing sea ice variability in the Weddell Sea during recent decades modulated by high-frequency Pacific oscillations, Ejaz et al., Global and Planetary Change 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2026.105604

Lengthening ablation seasons are associated with declining minimum albedo of global glaciers, Xiao et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2026.06.025

Localized positive snow water equivalent anomalies in the Hindu Kush Himalaya under 1.5–5.0 °C warming levels, Zuo et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2026.06.019

Quantification of Heat and Salt Budgets in the Western Ross Ice Shelf Cavity and Polynya System, Wang et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2025gl121363

Regional glacier mass changes and meltwater evolution in the Tianshan Mountains since 2000, Li et al., Global and Planetary Change Open Access 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2026.105587

Sea Ice Latent Heat Becomes More Active in the Arctic Sea Ice Energy Budget, Liu et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2026gl122371

Sustained decrease in snowfall over the Tibetan Plateau under a changing climate, Lin et al., Global and Planetary Change 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2026.105602

Temporal and spatial variations in freezing-thawing indices and their impact on permafrost in the Himalayan region, China, from 1960 to 2020, WANG et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2026.06.020

Uncertainty of the satellite-retrieved sea-ice area record and its trend, Wernecke et al., cryosphere Open Access pdf 10.5194/tc-20-3783-2026

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Altimetry-based ice-marginal lake water level changes in Greenland, Communications Earth & Environment, 10.1038/s43247-024-01522-4 13 cites.

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Sea level & climate change

Evaluating and mitigating ecosystem impacts under future extreme sea-level events: The case of Hong Kong, Cao et al., Urban Climate Open Access 10.1016/j.uclim.2026.103027

Relative contributions of waves and altimetric sea levels to global coastal sea level changes over 1993–2025, Peng et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2026.06.023

Sub-basin sea level budget analysis in the North Indian Ocean (2003–2024), Pillai et al., Scientific Reports Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41598-026-60856-5

Paleoclimate & paleogeochemistry

North Pacific meltwater weakens the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation and preconditions Heinrich Stadial 1, Sun et al., Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-026-75199-y

Biology & climate change, related geochemistry

Basin-scale grassland greenness and production capacity under extreme temperature and hydrothermal influences in Aral Sea basin during 21st century, Kayiranga et al., Global and Planetary Change 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2026.105617

Critical slowing down of semiarid vegetation resilience is amplified by intensifying heatwaves, Fu et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-026-75130-5

Earlier spring and later autumn: Climate warming reshapes pollen seasons in Beijing, Li et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2026.07.003

Higher temperatures and low precipitation strongly decrease conifer recruitment in the Rocky Mountains even in heat-adapted species and populations, Bither & Martin, Journal of Ecology 10.1111/1365-2745.70394

Individual Trees Respond to 40 Years of Climate Change Through Leaf Functional Trait Acclimation, Fortier et al., Global Change Biology 10.1111/gcb.70978

Intraspecific trait variation responds consistently to global change drivers and mediates herbivory across unrelated plant species, Zurbuchen & Halliday, Journal of Ecology Open Access 10.1111/1365-2745.70389

Multidecadal shifts in hooded seal dive behaviour in a changing ocean, Mendez-Bye et al., Arctic Science Open Access 10.1139/as-2025-0108

Ocean acidification alters phytoplankton diversity and community structure in the coastal water of the East China Sea, Rao et al., Biogeosciences Open Access pdf 10.5194/bg-23-4515-2026

Positive feedback of forest cover in maintaining hydrological equilibrium under recent climate change projections and land use change scenarios, Kumar et al., Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics 10.1016/j.jastp.2026.106880

Regeneration failure, fire, topography, and climate interact to drive temperate wet forest landscapes into fire traps, Perry, University of Auckland Data Repository Open Access 10.17608/k6.auckland.32320029

Stomatal Decoupling From Photosynthesis Under High Temperatures Is Consistent With Stomatal Optimisation, Jones et al., Global Change Biology Open Access 10.1111/gcb.70972

Unstable climate drove divergent changes in tree richness and evenness on the Tibetan Plateau, Li et al., Global and Planetary Change 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2026.105615

When Tides Run Dry: Exploring an Overlooked Coastal Disturbance and Its Climate Connections, Gauff et al., Global Change Biology Open Access 10.1111/gcb.70976

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Future trends of marine fish biomass distributions from the North Sea to the Barents Sea, Nature Communications, 10.1038/s41467-024-49911-9 31 cites.

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GHG sources & sinks, flux, related geochemistry

A meta-analysis of carbon losses and gains from tropical moist forest degradation and regeneration, Heinrich et al., Science Advances Open Access 10.1126/sciadv.adz1923

A multi-model approach to constrain the atmospheric hydrogen budget, Krishnan et al., Atmospheric chemistry and physics Open Access 10.5194/acp-26-9509-2026

Declines in organic matter persistence with increased soil carbon, Zhao et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-026-75185-4

Fossil fuel emissions dominate Northern Hemisphere CO2 seasonal cycle trends under mitigation scenarios, Jin et al., Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-026-75003-x

In-depth characterisation of organic matter thermal lability and composition from Arctic Permafrost thaw slumps, Bolandini et al., Biogeosciences Open Access pdf 10.5194/bg-23-4447-2026

Iron as a driver of organic carbon fate in permafrost regions, Opfergelt et al., Nature Geoscience 10.1038/s41561-026-02015-z

Limited energy for microorganisms constrains carbon accrual in soil, Wang et al., Nature Geoscience 10.1038/s41561-026-02035-9

Nonlinear microbial thresholds drive non-additive soil greenhouse gas responses to compound climate extremes, Lv et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 10.1016/j.agrformet.2026.111319

Quantifying the impact of anthropocene river regulation on global organic carbon burial: Mechanisms of accelerated sequestration in karst reservoirs, Wang et al., Global and Planetary Change 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2026.105597

Responses of Soil Carbon Release to Freeze–Thaw Cycles Mediated by Carbon Availability at Regional and Global Scales, Wang et al., Global Change Biology 10.1111/gcb.70991

Soil Moisture Controls on Permafrost Carbon Cycle Under Greenhouse Warming and Zero Emission Pathways, Mun et al., Earth s Future Open Access 10.1029/2026ef008209

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Four decades of data indicate that planted mangroves stored up to 750f the carbon stocks found in intact mature stands, Science Advances, 10.1126/sciadv.adk5430 60 cites.

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CO2 capture, sequestration science & engineering

3D geological modelling for CO2 storage assessment in the Abu Roash-A reservoir, Beni Suef field, Western Desert, Egypt, Arafat et al., Frontiers in Earth Science Open Access pdf 10.3389/feart.2026.1877557

A review of carbon dioxide removal through concrete carbonation: key parameters and life cycle assessment, Knight et al., Environmental Research Infrastructure and Sustainability Open Access pdf 10.1088/2634-4505/ae73b3

Decarbonization

Decarbonization from the ground up: what Local Industrial Decarbonization Plans reveal about place-based approaches to decarbonizing industry in the UK, Rattle & Taylor, Figshare Open Access 10.6084/m9.figshare.32885157.v1

Dynamic evaporative and radiative cooling for efficient year-round energy savings, Zhou et al., Science Advances Open Access 10.1126/sciadv.aed6069

Future scenarios for the benefit of battery storage in the German day-ahead electricity market, Gottfried & Müller, Energy Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.enpol.2026.115461

Projecting and Constraining Solar Energy Resources Along the Silk Road Economic Belt under Climate Change, LIU et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2026.06.028

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Towards carbon-neutral and clean propulsion in heavy-duty transportation with hydroformylated Fischer–Tropsch fuels, Nature Energy, 10.1038/s41560-024-01581-z 42 cites.

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Geoengineering climate

Artificial Flooding Leads to Thicker and Brighter Arctic Sea Ice, Blanchard-Wrigglesworth et al., Earth s Future Open Access 10.1029/2025ef007894

Marine cloud brightening of cumulus clouds: from the sprayer to the cloud, Kainz et al., Atmospheric chemistry and physics Open Access pdf 10.5194/acp-26-9443-2026

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Decomposing the effective radiative forcing of anthropogenic aerosols based on CMIP6 Earth system models, Atmospheric chemistry and physics, 10.5194/acp-24-7837-2024 18 cites.

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Aerosols

Global Ocean data set of marine aerosol properties, Quinn et al., Earth system science data Open Access pdf 10.5194/essd-18-4317-2026

Impacts of Aerosol Scavenging and Processing on the Transition of a Stratocumulus Cloud System to Open Cells: A Comparison of Lagrangian and Bin Microphysics Schemes in LES, Chandrakar & Morrison, Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences 10.1175/jas-d-25-0226.1

Record-Breaking Easterly Dust Transport From North Africa to the Arctic: An Observational Study, Chen et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2026gl123383

Temperature and radiative responses to anthropogenic aerosols over the Mediterranean Basin based on CMIP6 Earth system models, Kalisoras et al., Atmospheric chemistry and physics Open Access 10.5194/acp-26-9413-2026

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Co-Benefits of Mitigating Aerosol Pollution to Future Solar and Wind Energy in China Toward Carbon Neutrality, Geophysical Research Letters, 10.1029/2024gl109296 18 cites.

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Climate change communications & cognition

A hope-based framework for implementing climate risk education policy in South African secondary schools, Matimolane & Mathivha, Discover Education Open Access 10.1007/s44217-026-01848-5

Heating up the headlines: How tabloid framing reshaped Germany's Buildings Energy Act, Loschke et al., Energy Research & Social Science Open Access 10.1016/j.erss.2026.104832

Institutional quality shapes who citizens hold responsible for climate change mitigation, Klebl et al., Global Environmental Change Open Access 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2026.103190

Moral perspective-taking can reduce polarization around climate policy in the United States, Hurst & Hurst, PNAS Nexus Open Access 10.1093/pnasnexus/pgag225

People systematically under- and overestimate public engagement in climate action, Tiede et al., Open MIND pmh:10.17605/osf.io/kcq37

Shades of Swedish climate scepticism: an exploration of explanatory factors on doubts about climate change, Mendy & Lindvall, Environmental Sociology Open Access pdf 10.1080/23251042.2026.2697748

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Politicians and climate change: A systematic review of the literature, Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews Climate Change, 10.1002/wcc.908 25 cites.

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Agronomy, animal husbundry, food production & climate change

A multivariate framework for assessing compound agroclimatic extremes across Europe, Gohari et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-026-03576-y

Agricultural intensification and greenhouse gas emissions in Saudi Arabia: evidence from linear and nonlinear ARDL models, Hassan et al., Frontiers in Environmental Science Open Access 10.3389/fenvs.2026.1830288

Agrivoltaics: a promising renewable energy model still distant from a collaborative agroecology, Scotti & Osti, Environmental Sociology Open Access pdf 10.1080/23251042.2026.2697744

Breeding drought-tolerant crops for sustainable agriculture, Raza et al., Agriculture & Food Security Open Access pdf 10.1186/s40066-025-00587-4

Fishing and warming reshape size spectra of commercial species in the Mediterranean Sea, Gjoni et al., Scientific Reports Open Access 10.1038/s41598-026-60738-w

Prioritizing Inclusive Practices for Rural Women Smallholder Farmers Participation in Climate Change Adaptation and Ecological Education in Sub-Saharan Africa, Lokonon et al., Climate Resilience and Sustainability Open Access pdf 10.1002/cli2.70053

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Impacts of the global food system on terrestrial biodiversity from land use and climate change, Nature Communications, 10.1038/s41467-024-49999-z 88 cites.

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Hydrology, hydrometeorology & climate change

Changes in the spatial connection and synchronization of extreme rainfall events in recent decades over the Ganga and Yamuna River Basins of India, Pandey et al., Atmospheric Research 10.1016/j.atmosres.2026.109170

Impact, drivers and pathways of two Arctic atmospheric rivers in April 2020, Podgurski et al., Weather and Climate Dynamics Open Access 10.5194/wcd-7-1051-2026

Increasing spatially co-occurring droughts or pluvials in global major rivers during 1950-2014, Luo et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2026.06.021

Increasing urban flash flood risk attributable to both climate and development, Cotterill et al., Explore Bristol Research Open Access pmh:oai:research-information.bris.ac.uk:openaire_cris_publications/0260fbc2-2c41-4b32-a6f9-caa8dedffe1f

Streamflow composition in U.S. rivers is shifting toward recent precipitation, Chen & Husic, Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-026-03788-2

Warming-driven runoff increase and shifted seasonality in the glacierized Hotan Basin in Central Asia, Xu et al., Global and Planetary Change 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2026.105579

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Response of streamflow and sediment variability to cascade dam development and climate change in the Sai Gon Dong Nai River basin, Climate Dynamics, 10.1007/s00382-024-07319-7 101 cites.

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Climate change economics

An assessment of climate vulnerabilities in selected emerging economies with validation of the Environmental Kuznets Curve, Kumari et al., Environment Systems & Decisions 10.1007/s10669-026-10114-w

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Driving towards a just transition? The case of the European car industry, Energy Research & Social Science, 10.1016/j.erss.2024.103649 17 cites.

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Climate change mitigation public policy research

Ecological synergy thresholds: Mechanisms and governance implications for enhancing city-level ecosystem carbon sink in China, Li et al., Global and Planetary Change 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2026.105595

Repoliticising users in energy transitions: A critique of dominant ideas and their effect in policy and practice, Ahlborg et al., Energy Research & Social Science Open Access 10.1016/j.erss.2026.104814

Risk in translation: Climate risk, social vulnerability, and clean energy support across the United States, Tsykalova et al., Energy Research & Social Science Open Access 10.1016/j.erss.2026.104827

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Supply-side climate policy: A new frontier in climate governance, Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews Climate Change, 10.1002/wcc.909 22 cites.

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Climate change adaptation & adaptation public policy research

A multi-level framework for climate adaptation of critical infrastructure: flood risk in railway networks, Gonzalez et al., Environmental Research Infrastructure and Sustainability Open Access 10.1088/2634-4505/ae7fb5

Beyond climatic risk: envisioning, legitimizing and materializing imaginaries of climate change adaptation in Barbados, Córdova, Figshare Open Access 10.6084/m9.figshare.32927386

Effect of financial inclusion and women empowerment on climate resilience: Evidence from sub-Saharan African households, Ali et al., Climate Risk Management Open Access 10.1016/j.crm.2026.100848

Engineering against the climate crisis: assessing the awareness and engagement of South African engineering professionals in climate mitigation and adaptation, Jokazi & Lefalatsa, Frontiers in Climate Open Access pdf 10.3389/fclim.2026.1829348

Household perceptions and behaviour shape climate insurance adoption under climate risk, Kamis et al., Climate Risk Management Open Access 10.1016/j.crm.2026.100844

Occupational productivity under extreme heat: Climate impacts and adaptive strategies, Li et al., Climate Risk Management Open Access 10.1016/j.crm.2026.100834

Planning climate destination cities: migrant narratives from Mongla, Bangladesh, Hasan et al., Climate and Development 10.1080/17565529.2026.2692563

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Living in Mediterranean cities in the context of climate change: A review, International Journal of Climatology, 10.1002/joc.8546 36 cites.

buffer/CCAD

Climate change impacts on human health

Assessment of urban quality of life under climate change – A framework for Europe, Seku?a et al., Urban Climate Open Access 10.1016/j.uclim.2026.102988

High-Resolution Modeling of Wet Bulb Globe Temperature Reveals Substantial Heat Risks Across Crops and Work Shifts Among Agricultural Workers in Southern California, Parajuli et al., GeoHealth Open Access 10.1029/2025gh001604

Projecting community-specific burden of emergency department visits and hospitalizations associated with heat exposure in Victoria, Australia, Xing et al., Urban Climate Open Access 10.1016/j.uclim.2026.103023

Other

Climate unemployment, Kono, Political Studies 10.1177/0032321719836066

Climatic Drivers of the Area Burned by Winter Wildfires in Northern Italy, Baronetti et al., International Journal of Climatology Open Access 10.1002/joc.70496

Influence of historical urban expansion on the regional climate: A case study in the Paris region with CNRM-AROME, Corneille et al., Urban Climate 10.1016/j.uclim.2026.103013

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Ocean iron cycle feedbacks decouple atmospheric CO2 from meridional overturning circulation changes, Nature Communications, 10.1038/s41467-024-49274-1 4 cites.

buffer/OTHR

Informed opinion, nudges & major initiatives

Responsible carbon accounting, [authors did not process], Nature Climate Change 10.1038/s41558-026-02707-9

Rethinking urban forests as essential infrastructure for resilience, equity, and biodiversity in the current climate emergency, Esperón-Rodríguez et al., PLOS Climate Open Access pdf 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000953

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Higher-resolution projections needed for small island climates, Nature Climate Change, 10.1038/s41558-024-02028-9 10 cites.

Articles/Reports from Agencies and Non-Governmental Organizations Addressing Aspects of Climate Change

Uneconomic Coal Operations in PJM: Market Distortions, Cost Impacts, and Policy Considerations, Roumpani et al., The Citizens Utility Board of Ohio

Uneconomic coal operations are not isolated incidents, but occur by a combination of permissive market rules, utility incentives, regulatory decisions, and policy interventions. In combination, these weaken price signals and allow aging, high-cost coal units to remain online even when they are no longer competitive. The authors examine mechanisms that allow or drive uneconomic coal operations including self-scheduling, in which generators operate regardless of market prices, often recovering losses through state-approved power cost recovery mechanisms.; uplift payments, which compensate generators under specified conditions for operating or committing when market revenues are insufficient; Reliability Must-Run (RMR) agreements, which keep uneconomic units online after retirement announcements due to localized reliability concerns; and policy interventions, including recent federal actions, that override or blunt market signals.

The Power Behind AI, Bird et al., The Environmental Integrity Project

At least 74 natural gas-fired power plants, which could release as much climate-warming pollution as the nation of Australia each year, are planned across the U.S. to provide energy for the rapidly-growing data center industry. These proposed gas plants, which would be dedicated to serving data centers, are expected to generate 143 gigawatts of electricity – enough to power the state of California nearly three times over – along with 662 million tons per year of greenhouse gas pollution.

Greenpeace Report on Wildfires in Portugal, Viegas et al., Greenpeace

The wildfire risk in Portugal has been changing over the past decades due to the positive or negative effects of various factors, some related to natural or physical conditions and others to socioeconomic, political, and organizational activities. Using statistical data on national fire occurrence and extent, which have been available since 1943, and on climatic factors, vegetation cover and properties, population evolution, and administrative changes in the wildfire risk management system, the authors provide an overview of wildfires in Portugal and their evolution over the past decades. The long-term data are used to provide an overall perspective on some of the major factors present over these eight decades.

Carbon Markets, Unseen Workers: Labor Rights and Governance Gaps in Africa, Otieno et al., Solidarity Center

The authors address a critical gap by analyzing carbon markets through a labor and political economy lens. Grounded in experiences from Kenya, Ghana, South Africa, and Nigeria, the authors examine how both compliance and voluntary carbon market mechanisms shape employment, labor conditions, and worker participation. The authors illuminate the role of workers across carbon value chains, assess alignment with the International Labor Organization's core conventions and decent work principles, identify governance and accountability gaps, and explore pathways for worker and trade union engagement. The authors provide a framework for workers and their organizations to develop their own engagement and advocacy strategies tailored to their specific priorities.

Hawai'i’s Electricity Future: Three Findings on Solar Reform, Enhanced Geothermal, and the JERA LNG Proposal, Ethan Hartley and Michael Roberts, University of Hawaii Economic Research Organization

The authors ask what Hawaiian Electric and Hawai‘i should build to keep O‘ahu’s lights on through 2050 while transitioning to 100 percent clean power, and what it will cost. The analysis uses a planning model — the kind of computer model utility companies and grid regulators run when they have to decide which power plants to build over the next two decades — and solves it more than three hundred times under different assumptions about oil prices, solar and battery costs, land-use rules, the Public Utility Commission-approved Waiau Repower, and the JERA liquefied natural gas proposal. Three findings hold across all the variations tested; cheaper solar and battery deployment is by far the biggest economic lever Hawai‘i has; under defensible current cost assumptions, O‘ahu does not need to build any new fuel-burning power plant beyond what is already committed; and Enhanced Geothermal Systems (EGS) are the largest non-solar economic lever — if the technology delivers on the optimistic cost trajectory.

California Salmon Strategy for a Hotter, Drier Future: Restoring Aquatic Ecosystems in the Age of Climate Change, Second Progress Report, State of California

In January 2024, California adopted the California Salmon Strategy for a Hotter, Drier Future (Salmon Strategy), identifying six priorities and 71 actions to restore struggling salmon populations. Since the release of the Salmon Strategy, the state has fully completed 49% of the actions and partially met or advanced progress on 51% of the actions. This progress report describes progress for the 71 actions across two stages, those that are in-progress and those that have been completed. For example, salmon fishing is back, salmon are returning to the Klamath Basin, salmon have been reintroduced to cold-water habitat on the Yuba River, and river flows for salmon have been protected in the Scott and Shasta rivers.

The Impact of New York's 2026 Climate Law Retreat, Jonathan Binder and Vincent Nolette, Sabin Center for Climate Change Law, Columbia University

On May 26, 2026, New York State enacted significant revisions to its 2019 Climate Leadership and Community Protection Act (CLCPA). The 2026 Amendments, which include changes to the greenhouse gas (GHG) emission accounting methods, the statewide GHG emission limits, and the requirement to adopt implementing regulations, collectively weaken the Act's ambition. New York’s retreat from state climate action after championing it for years reflects a broader national trend of de-prioritizing mitigation efforts. The 2026 Amendments will have vast and important consequences for the implementation of the CLCPA. Numerous actions will need to be updated through rulemaking, guidance, or other administrative processes. This will require a significant and resource-intensive undertaking by the State, and especially by the Department of Environmental Conservation (DEC). Amending the statute was largely done behind closed doors as part of the state budget process. By contrast, most of these administrative actions to implement the amended CLCPA will require a public-facing process. In the background, the risk and actual commencement of litigation will continue to shape the Act’s outcomes. Despite these amendments, DEC, with support of various stakeholders, retains significant discretion to maximize the CLCPA's benefits through strong implementation.

Stafford Act's Requirement to Consider Climate Change in State Hazard Mitigation Plans, Olivia Guarna, Sabin Center for Climate Change Law, Columbia University

Congress passed the Stafford Act in 1988 to provide a means for sustained and coordinated federal aid in response to disasters. The Stafford Act includes a comprehensive non-emergency hazard mitigation program. Hazard mitigation assistance empowers states, tribes, and local governments to engage in planning and mitigation activities that improve disaster outcomes and minimize losses in their jurisdictions. A key component of the Stafford Act’s hazard mitigation assistance programs, which are implemented by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), is the development of state hazard mitigation plans. The Stafford Act requires state hazard mitigation plans to “identify the natural hazards, risks, and vulnerabilities of areas in the State.” The author argues that, under the Stafford Act, state plans must consider the effects of climate change on natural hazard risks and vulnerabilities.

Code, carbon, kilowatts: AI’s hidden toll and the race to green the grid, Patrick Hoffmann and Katharina Utermöhl, Allianz Research

Data-center investment reached USD580bn in 2025, putting AI on track to become one of the world's fastest-growing sources of electricity demand. Installed capacity is expected to double by 2030, with AI workloads already accounting for 15–20% of data-center electricity use and potentially approaching 40% by the end of the decade. Yet the sector's environmental footprint remains underestimated as most analyses focus only on operational electricity use. The authors take a broader systems view across 26 countries (+93% of global capacity), adding lifecycle emissions, water use and AI's growing resource demand. Identical workloads can generate up to 24 times more emissions depending on the emission intensity of the grid, making location as decisive as demand growth. Fossil-dependent grids in Indonesia, India and Malaysia exceed 600 gCO2/kWh, compared with under 30 gCO2/kWh in Norway and Sweden. The US and China, which host the largest data-center clusters, sit in between at 384 gCO2/kWh and 526 gCO2/kWh, respectively, giving Europe's cleaner power mix a structural advantage for low-carbon AI growth. These disparities are amplified by transmission and distribution losses of 10–15% in some markets, while less reliable grids raise electricity needs and dependence on backup generation.

A Study of Architectural Measures to Reduce Overheating. Literature Review and Analysis, Historic England

The authors identified different historic architectural measures used in England and in British colonial architecture abroad. They investigated how passive architectural measures, such as awnings or shutters, have been used in the past to reduce solar gain and seasonal overheating. The different measures are supporting Historic England in identifying appropriate adaptation options to a changing climate. As temperatures increase, there is a growing risk of overheating occurring in buildings. This could lead to thermal discomfort, health implications for building occupants due to thermal stress, and increased energy usage due to a rising demand for cooling to counter the overheating. In addition to identifying what measures were used historically, the authors also sought to identify the different risks, regulations and limitations that might need to be considered when contemplating their integration into an existing historic building.

Glass Half Full: Building a Decarbonized U.S. Power Sector, Lily Bermel, Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research, Massachusetts Institute of Technology

The Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 (IRA) was built, sold, and attacked as the largest climate investment in U.S. history. It enacted an extensive suite of clean energy tax credits and included hundreds of billions of dollars in grant and loan programs, reestablishing the United States as a climate leader. The One Big Beautiful Bill Act of 2025 (OBBBA) rescinded the vast majority of the IRA’s grant and loan programs and restructured the clean energy tax credit framework by phasing out the wind and solar tax credits and adding restrictions to the others. Many clean energy advocates saw these changes as the death of the IRA and warned of dire consequences for the American energy transition. Indeed, removing and restricting energy tax credits will contribute to higher energy prices, project cancellations, job losses, and less energy added to the grid at a time when power demand is surging. Policymakers designing the next wave of decarbonization policy need to start with a clear-eyed understanding of how the current environment shapes the energy transition. The author provides one for the power sector, the backbone of that transition. The author assesses how much the current policy environment preserves the benefits of the prior policy environment, situates those modeled results within the real-world forces shaping delivery, and draws out what the findings imply for future policy priorities and public spending.

The Power Behind AI. Wave of Dirty Gas Power Plants Planned for Data Centers, Bird et al., The Environmental Integrity Project:

At least 74 natural gas-fired power plants are planned across the U.S. to provide energy for the rapidly growing data center industry. These proposed gas plants, which would be dedicated to serving data centers, are expected to generate 143 gigawatts of electricity – enough to power the state of California nearly three times over. The plants would also release nearly 662 million tons per year of greenhouse gas pollution, which would have the climate-warming effect of 140 million cars and trucks driving for a year or the emissions from the entire nation of Australia. Beyond greenhouse gases, this wave of power plants for data centers could also release 159,142 tons of health-harming air pollutants, including 44,281 tons of nitrogen oxides that contribute to smog and lung damage and 32,684 tons of fine particulate matter, which can trigger heart and asthma attacks. And this is just the tip of the iceberg. This pollution is a small fraction of the likely environmental effect of the booming artificial intelligence (AI) industry and affiliated data centers. These 74 planned gas plants, including 71 new power plants and three plant expansions, would be connected directly to data centers — so-called “behind-the-meter” power plants. These plants are designed to provide their electricity primarily to data centers and not to compete with local households and businesses on regional power grids. More power plants are being planned across the U.S. that will indirectly serve the growing data center industry along with other consumers on the grid, which will likely drive up electricity prices for nearby residents.

City of Boulder, Climate Action Plan, City of Boulder

This Climate Action Plan outlines how Boulder's aim to reduce emissions, strengthen infrastructure resilience and invest in communities most affected by climate change. It connects long-term goals with practical strategies already in motion across the city. Already occurring are extreme heat, longer droughts, greater fire risk and rising energy burdens, especially for community members with the fewest resources. These effects are not future threats. They are here now. The city is responding with clear targets, coordinated action and a focus on long-term public benefit.

Mental Images of Global Warming in the Indian Mind, Thaker et al., Yale Program on Climate Change Communication

Most Indians are unfamiliar with the term "global warming": When asked to name the first word or phrase that came to mind, 58% were unable to give a specific response or said they do not know. Those familiar with “global warming” associate it primarily with heat, water, and pollution. Familiarity with the term “global warming” varies sharply, with higher recognition among more educated, higher income, and urban respondents.

Investing in the green economy 2026: Resilience and reacceleration, Dai et al., London Stock Exchange Group

The green economy has surpassed US$10 trillion despite energy shocks, policy divergence and market volatility. Against a backdrop of volatile markets, energy supply disruption and rising electricity demand, the authors analyze green investment opportunities and how the green transition is evolving by examining the size, growth, performance and financing of the global green economy across asset classes. The authors also examined how green assets are scaled via merger and acquisition with profitability analysis, the role of green bonds in supporting capital flows, and the diverging regional green economy shaped by decarbonization and energy security priorities.

50 State of Energy Affordability, Apadula et al., North Carolina Clean Energy Technology Center

The authors provide updates on state and utility actions to address rising electricity costs, including utility business model reforms, utility oversight and cost recovery, infrastructure planning and procurement processes, customer cost allocation, and customer programs.

Economic, Consumer Cost, and Pollution Impacts of Federal Energy Policy Changes, Robbie Orvis and Daniel O’Brien, Energy Innovation Policy and Technology

The United States’ energy policy framework has shifted dramatically during the second Trump administration and 119th Congress. Over the past one and a half years, the federal government has overhauled many legislative and regulatory policies, creating significant implications for clean energy deployment. Energy prices continue rising, exacerbating the affordability crisis Americans are facing. The authors used the Energy Policy Simulator to model federal policy decisions made since January 2025 to determine what the near future holds for families and businesses in terms of energy costs, public health, job losses, and grid reliability. The authors analyze the effects of policy changes on energy prices, the economy, air pollution, and healthcare spending from 2026 to 2040. The author's modeling shows higher energy costs, worsening public health effects, and less capacity added to the grid – blocking new generation when it is needed most and increasing utility costs.

Renewable Power Generation Costs in 2025, Dardour et al., International Renewable Energy Agency

Renewables remain the most cost-competitive source of new electricity generation. More than 90% of utility-scale renewable projects commissioned in 2025 delivered power below the cost of the cheapest new fossil-fuel plant built in their market. After more than a decade of steep declines, renewable power costs are stabilizing. In 2025, Solar PV remained at its 2024 level of USD $44/MWh, while wind continued to improve, with onshore wind falling to USD $33/MWh and offshore wind to USD $78/MWh. In contrast, most dispatchable renewable technologies recorded higher costs, with hydropower, geothermal and concentrating solar power rising to USD $62/MWh, USD $89/MWh and USD $115/MWh, respectively. Bioenergy was the exception, declining to USD $86/MWh. In 2025, renewables helped avoid an estimated USD 480 billion in fossil-fuel costs and about 8.4 gigatonnes of CO2 emissions, confirming their role not only as the cheapest new power, but as a pillar of energy security, economic stability and resilience. About New Research

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This is a re-post from Carbon Brief

Clean power added more to global energy supplies than any other source in 2025, according to the latest Energy Institute statistical review of world energy.

Outside the Covid pandemic, it was also the first year ever in which wind and solar, when combined, contributed more new energy than any of the individual fossil fuels.

The findings illustrate the “growing prominence” of electricity in the global energy system, according to the Energy Institute, a professional membership body that took over the production of the annual statistical review from oil firm BP in 2023.

It notes that electricity demand is rising much faster, at 3% in 2025, than energy use overall at 1.7% – and that all of the new power supply came from low-carbon sources.

While it includes data on data-centre demand for the first time, the review shows that these only make up 2% of all electricity use and 15% of the increase in 2025.

(The review does not explore other sources of demand, but separate data shows electrification of industry, heat and transport is a far larger driver of growth than data centres.)

At the same time, every source of energy – including coal, oil, gas, nuclear and hydro – also reached global all-time highs in 2025, the statistical review shows.

While the 86% of “primary energy” that came from fossil fuels is a record low, their real contribution to the economy is far lower, because roughly two-thirds of their energy is lost during combustion.

Below, Carbon Brief highlights the key findings of the review in six charts.

• Global energy supplies increase 1.7% in 2025
• Fossil fuels met a record-low 86.2% of global energy supply
• The ‘primary energy fallacy’ ‘inflates fossil fuels’
• Wind and solar were biggest source of new energy in 2025
• Clean energy met all of global electricity growth in 2025
• China generates more power than the US, EU and India combined

Global energy supplies increase 1.7% in 2025

The review shows that global energy supply reached a record high in 2025, climbing 10 exajoules (EJ, 1.7%) to more than 600EJ for the first time ever.

Within this total, there were new all-time highs for every energy source: oil; coal; gas; nuclear; wind and solar; as well as hydro and other renewables. This is shown in the figure below.

Total global energy supply by fuel, exajoules. Source: Energy Institute (2026).

Notably, coal hit a new record of 166EJ in 2025, up 0.7% from a year earlier and 2.8% above the level reached in 2014, which had been seen as a potential peak for the fuel.

Wind and solar saw the fastest growth, up by 18.3% year-on-year, as well as adding more to global supplies – in combination – than any single fuel source.

Fossil fuels met a record-low 86.2% of global energy supply

Nevertheless, on the basis of these primary energy figures, the contribution of low-carbon sources to the global energy system still looks relatively small.

The latest data shows that fossil fuels made up 86.2% of global primary energy supplies, as shown in the figure below.

Share of total global energy supply from fossil fuels and clean-energy sources, including nuclear and renewables, %. Source: Energy Institute (2026).

The rise of nuclear power had pushed the fossil-fuel share of global energy down to 91% as long ago as 1986, before the Chernobyl disaster pulled the plug on further growth.

It is only in the past decade that clean-energy sources have started to gain more ground, as a result of the rapid expansion of wind and solar.

The ‘primary energy fallacy’ ‘inflates fossil fuels’

Crucially, however, the statistical review is based on “total energy supply” (TES), a measure of primary energy. This counts the energy stored in coal, oil, gas and nuclear fuel going into the energy system, whereas for renewables it measures the amount of electricity coming out.

Yet, most of the energy in fossil fuels is lost as waste heat during combustion.

In fact, some two-thirds of all primary energy is lost before it can be turned into useful energy that moves a car, warms a home or keeps the lights on.

This gives rise to the “primary energy fallacy”, which tends to “inflate…the perceived contribution of fossil fuels” and the difficulty of replacing them with low-carbon energy sources.

For example, the figure in the post shows that 105 units of energy went into the global transport sector – almost all of it oil – but this only generated 20 units of transport “energy services”.

In other words, less than 20% of the primary energy being used for transport actually ends up moving people or goods, while the remaining 80% was lost as waste heat.

Until 2024, the statistical review sought to address this issue by using the “substitution method” for clean-energy sources. This listed the primary energy supplied by wind and solar, for example, as the amount of fossil fuels that would have been needed to generate the same amount of electricity.

It stopped using this approach in 2025, explaining that this would reveal the higher efficiency of a clean-energy system that loses less energy during fossil-fuel combustion. It explained:

“Put simply, in future we will need to supply less energy in the form of clean electricity to undertake the same amount of work as the equivalent energy supplies from fossil fuels. Primary energy demand will decrease as the energy system increasingly electrifies and renewable electricity continues to increase its share of generation..”

Wind and solar were biggest source of new energy in 2025

With this in mind, it is all the more notable that wind and solar, in combination, were the world’s biggest source of new energy in 2025, as shown in the figure below.

Again, perhaps two-thirds of the new primary energy added by fossil fuels last year will never actually contribute useful work to the economy, because it will be lost as waste heat.

In contrast, the new energy added by wind and solar is in the form of electricity and almost all of it can be used directly to power factories, homes, appliances and electric vehicles.

Contribution to the change in total global energy supply by fuel, %. Source: Energy Institute (2026).

Moreover, wind and solar saw the fastest growth by far, up 18% in 2025 alone. Over the past decade, they expanded fivefold, while coal, oil and gas grew by 6%, 9% and 21%, respectively. 

Clean energy met all of global electricity growth in 2025

The impact of renewables is clearest in the power sector, where combined with a new record for nuclear power, they met all of the growth in global electricity demand in 2025.

This is shown in the figure below, which illustrates how fossil generation was flat last year and how wind and solar now generate more electricity than hydro or nuclear power.

Global electricity generation by fuel, terawatt hours. Source: Energy Institute (2026).

The review says that wind and solar power, when combined, grew by 18% in 2025, whereas there was a small decline in coal generation balanced by a small rise for gas.

Overall, it says that global electricity generation increased by some 940 terawatt hours (TWh, 3%), roughly three times the annual demand of the UK.

Separate figures, included in the review for the first time, show that data centres used 788TWh of electricity in 2025, up 130TWh on a year earlier.

This means that data centres accounted for 2% of global electricity demand. 

China generates more power than the US, EU and India combined

The Energy Institute report says that the power sector is set to play an increasingly important role, because it is growing more quickly than other parts of the global energy system.

There is also increasing political attention on the idea of using expanded clean-power supplies to rapidly electrify other parts of the economy, particularly heat and transport.

The COP31 presidency has called for countries to back a global goal for 35% of “final” energy to come from electricity by 2035, against a global average today of around 22%.

China is well ahead of the global average, with electricity making up 30% of its final energy supplies in 2025. It recently adopted a 35% by 2030 target for electrification.

One reason it has been able to do this is the huge scale of its electricity system. Indeed, China now generates more electricity than the US, EU and India combined, as shown in the figure below.

Electricity generation by country, terawatt hours. Source: Energy Institute (2026).

While much of the rise in China’s electricity has historically come from coal-fired generation, there was enough growth of clean-power sources to push coal down last year.

This is a re-post from Yale Climate Connections by Bob Henson and Jeff Masters

Update (Thursday, July 2, 3 p.m. EDT):

Extreme heat warnings covered much of the Midwest, mid-Atlantic, and Northeast U.S. on Thursday – including the heavily populated Interstate 95 corridor from Virginia to southern Maine – as a well-predicted heat wave intensified with the approach of a holiday weekend, bringing widespread temperatures above 100 degrees Fahrenheit. Millions of people are set to experience the hottest Fourth of July ever recorded in the history of their town or city. Parades, concerts, and other events were being rearranged, rescheduled, or moved indoors to avoid the worst of the dangerous heat.

As the United States prepared to commemorate the nation’s 250th birthday, the U.S. capital had entered one of the worst heat waves in its history.  As of midday Thursday, the official forecast for Washington’s Reagan National Airport was for highs of 102°F, 104°F, and 103°F for Thursday through Saturday, July 2-4. These readings would melt the D.C. daily records of 101°F, 101°F, and 100°F. In observations that go back to 1871, Washington has never recorded two consecutive days of 103°F, and the only three-day streak of highs reaching at least 102°F occurred way back on July 19-21, 1930.

Further north, the nation’s first capital city, Philadelphia, was on track for predicted highs of 103°F, 103°F and 101°F on Thursday through Saturday, which would tie the daily record on Thursday and approach the city’s monthly record of 104°F set on July 3, 1966. For what it’s worth, the temperature recorded in Philadelphia by president-to-be Thomas Jefferson at 1:00 p.m. on the day the Declaration of Independence was signed – July 4, 1776 – was a mere 72.5°F.

In New York, Central Park had already reached 100°F by 2 p.m., the first time it has reached the century mark since July 18, 2012. The forecast was for 101°F on Friday and 97°F on Saturday.  In 157 years of recordkeeping, Central Park has only had 5 pairs of consecutive days that both reached at least 101°F. The only pair of 102°F readings at Central Park occurred during the height of the central U.S. Dust Bowl on July 9-10, 1936.

Original article, posted on Monday, June 29:

As our fossil-fuel-warmed world careens into what’s likely to be months of record global-scale heat goosed by El Niño, early season heat waves are already proving tragic this summer. Most of central and northern Europe was assaulted over the past week by the continent’s worst heat wave ever recorded before the core summer months of July and August, and at least 1,300 people have died as a result.

Meanwhile, extreme heat watches extended along the U.S. East Coast on Monday from New Jersey and eastern Pennsylvania to southern Maine, foretelling a miserable and potentially record-setting heat wave that will run from midweek into the Fourth of July holiday across much of the U.S. east of the Appalachians. Heat indexes – reflecting air temperature plus humidity – may exceed 110 degrees across much of the extreme-heat watch area.

As of midday Monday, the official forecast for Washington’s Reagan National Airport was for highs of 99°F, 103°F, 103°F, and 101°F for Wednesday through Saturday, July 1-4. The city has never recorded two consecutive days of 103°F, and only a handful of heat waves have produced four-day strings of 99°F. In New York, Central Park’s forecast highs of 91°, 96°, 95°F, and 91°F for July 1-4 wouldn’t be as historic, but they would still make for a hot, sweaty lead-up to the holiday, especially with lows possibly staying above 80°F for two nights.

The National Weather Service office warned folks in and around Philadelphia: “Very warm low temperatures in the mid 70s to low 80s at night will not offer any relief from the heat. This combined with multiple days of near record-breaking temperatures will exacerbate the impacts from the heat and humidity.”

The climate change connection

In a rapid-response analysis released on Friday, “Fossil fuel emissions have rapidly worsened European heatwaves in just a few decades,” the nonprofit research group World Weather Attribution said: “In 1976, when some of the previous European records were set, the 2026 temperatures would have been virtually impossible to occur in June, while also highly unlikely at any time of the year. In 2003, the first major heatwave of this century, daytime heat like this would still have been very rare, about 10 times less likely than today, while nighttime temperatures such as this June would have been more than a hundred times less likely in 2003.”

“Extreme heat is already reaching the limits of our societies’ ability to cope,” the group added.

The past week’s European heat wave was fierce, widespread, and prolonged – a perfect storm of torrid misery and danger, particularly in France. Early last week, temperatures soared as high as 44.6 degress Celsius (112 degrees Fahrenheit) in Bordeaux.

The brutal heat ignited a long-simmering debate on the role of air conditioning in France, where policy, custom, and legacy building styles have inhibited its use but where dense urban living without AC as heat waves worsen has led to horrific death tolls over the past 25 years.

Europe’s heat wave responsible for over 1,300 deaths

The World Health Organization said on Sunday that more than 1,300 excess deaths – those beyond the usual mortality rate for this time of year – have been recorded because of Europe’s record-breaking heat wave since June 21. Health officials in France independently reported 1,000 more deaths than expected in the country since Wednesday. The heat-related death toll is undoubtedly much higher, and we should expect the final toll from heat in Europe in 2026 will measure in the tens of thousands, as has occurred in each of the last four years.

Figure 1. Heat waves over the period 1900-2025 in which analyses have found that at least 100 heat-related deaths occurred.

The preliminary data for 2026 already makes the current heat wave the 15th-deadliest in world history. Most of these deadly heat waves have occurred in Europe. However, a 2026 paper found that one-day extreme heat waves in India in excess of the 97th percentile for temperature kill about 3,400 people, and five-day extreme heat waves kill about 30,000 people. There have been several heat waves of this magnitude in India in recent years, so India should have many more entries in Fig. 1 than shown.

The high heat death tolls in Europe are from a combination of factors:

• Building design: A lack of air conditioning, combined with architecture designed to retain heat during the long winters.
• Methodology: More rigorous techniques of reporting of heat deaths over time and as compared to other areas.
• Age: A relatively old population.
• Accelerated warming: According to the World Health Organization, Europe is the fastest-warming continent on Earth, heating at roughly twice the global average rate.

With heat, as with other phenomena such as hurricanes, scientists are now better able to comprehensively assess how extreme weather and climate events lead to premature death. National agencies and researchers once focused on heat-related deaths that were direct, such as those caused by heat stroke. Today, indirect heat-related deaths – for example, those caused by cardiovascular and respiratory conditions that are worsened by the heat and pollution trapped during heat waves – are being analyzed more comprehensively. This change is occurring at the same time extreme heat itself is getting measurably worse – and as heat-related adaptations actually improve in some places, in a high-pressure race with time and a warming planet.

More Euro heat to come?

Record and near-record heat may return over western Europe by late this week into the following week as the ridge of high pressure rebuilds. After highs in the 80s Fahrenheit this week, Paris is predicted to again approach 100°F by early next week. Likewise, London may boomerang from the 70s this week back toward or above 95°F next week.

The oceanic link to this summer’s heat in Europe

Because of the influence of the nearby Atlantic and Mediterranean, which take time to warm and cool with the seasons, the oceanic climates of Europe tend to see their most intense heat toward the latter months of summer. However, the waters adjoining Europe are enmeshed in a marine heat wave right now. Just south of France and Italy, the northwest Mediterranean sea surface temperature is running as high as eight degrees Celsius (14°F) above average.

West of Spain and Portugal, unusually high sea surface temperatures of 68°F (20°C) extend hundreds of miles to the west. This warm water is adding heat and moisture to the overlying atmosphere and stoking the humid heat plaguing France and the British Isles. As noted by meteorologist James Peacock (MetSwift) on X: “Usually if 20°C or higher [temperatures at 850 millibars] are to reach the UK, it has to come from the European landmass. Not so this summer, when it could just as easily come from the southwest …& be far more humid as a result. In the decades ahead, this may cease to be an unusual situation.”

Three firefighters die in Colorado

On Saturday afternoon, June 27, wildland firefighters with the Rifle Helitack crew engaged with the Snyder Fire in Mesa County, on the Colorado border with Utah. They experienced extreme fire weather conditions: high heat combined with winds gusting up to 57 mph (91 km/hr). The fast-moving flames overran their position, forcing five crew members to deploy their emergency fire shelters. Three firefighters were killed and two others were severely burned. The survivors were flown to a burn center, where they are being treated. Both U.S. Wildland Fire Service and Forest Service personnel were involved. The fire is estimated at over 28,000 acres.

The previous most recent line-of-duty fatality of a U.S. wildland firefighter occurred on September 26, 2025, when Isabella “Bella” Oscarson, a 26-year-old crew module leader with the Idaho Department of Lands, was killed while assisting with a prescribed burn in the Nez Perce-Clearwater National Forests in Idaho. She was fatally struck by a falling tree while working on the fire line.

“Burnover” incidents such as the one on Sunday, where firefighters are trapped by a fast-moving blaze, can be especially deadly. A total of 96 firefighters were killed and 78 injured in a total of 41 burnover incidents in the 28 years from 1990 through 2017, according to a USDA Forest Service report. Five incidents alone led to 44 of the fatalities.

Figure 2. A plume of dense smoke partially obscured the sun in Boulder, Colorado, on Sunday evening, June 28, 2026. The plume was generated by the Willow Fire, a few miles northwest of Leadville, Colorado, which exploded from five to about 1,000 acres on Sunday afternoon. As of midday Monday, the Willow Fire was 0% contained. (Image credit: Bob Henson)

An early and significant wildfire season in the Western U.S.

Significant wildland fire activity is occurring across multiple geographic areas in the U.S., with 3.1 million acres having burned so far in 2026. Over the past 10 years, only 2022 (with 3.6 million acres burned) was this active so early in the year. Today, the U.S. National Interagency Fire Center raised its national preparedness level to Preparedness Level 4 on a scale of one to five. The national preparedness level was last raised to the highest level, PL 5, on July 18, 2024. Reaching PL 5 indicates that the nation’s firefighting resources are severely stretched. It is triggered by a combination of high fire weather indices, widespread large fire activity, and an extreme demand for personnel and equipment. It is likely that PL 5 will be declared in July this year.

With an unusually strong trough of low pressure over the Southwest U.S. expected to bring strong winds and very little precipitation this week, firefighting resources will be strained, and there will be a continued high potential for new large fires to emerge across multiple geographic areas. The center wrote:

“The southern Intermountain West will continue to be plagued by dry and unusually windy conditions today. Extremely critical fire weather, with southwesterly winds gusting from 30-60 mph, locally stronger in favored downslope areas, along with relative humidity from 5-15% will be most likely across northern Arizona into eastern Utah, western Colorado and far northwestern New Mexico. These conditions are extraordinarily rare for late June, and impacts will likely be severe.”

Utah has seen the worst wildfire conditions in the U.S. this year, and the governor said that the 2026 wildfires have been the most destructive in Utah history. A State of Emergency has been declared for the state as five fires have run tens of thousands of acres, and a statewide ban on fireworks displays has been ordered for the July 4th weekend. Over 1,000 people statewide have been evacuated because of the fires.

The largest wildfire currently burning in the U.S. is the Cottonwood Fire in Utah, which is at 94,000 acres burned. Nearly 1,000 firefighters are deployed on the fire, which is 0% contained.

Smoke from the wildfires has thus far mostly avoided heavily populated areas, but you can follow the smoke forecasts for the fires by referencing our post from last year, 15 sources of wildfire smoke forecasts for North America.

Extreme heat records broken across Europe

At least 10 European nations or territories recently recorded all-time national highs, meaning the hottest single temperature ever reliably recorded at any town or city nationwide. Below are a few of these preliminary national records, as compiled by weather historian Christopher Burt (author of “Extreme Weather”), primarily from data posted by independent weather-records analyst Maximiliano Herrera. Note that all of the new records broke ones that occurred in late July or August, weeks later in summer than we are now:

Jersey (UK territory)
39.3°C (102.6°F) at Maison St. Louis on June 25
Old: 37.9°C (100.2°F) at Maison St. Louis on Jul. 18, 2022

Guernsey (UK territory)
36.4°C (97.5°F) at Rocquaine Bay on June 25
Old: 35.0°C (95.0°F) at Rocquaine Bay on Aug. 5, 2003

Luxembourg
40.9°C (105.6°F) at Reckange on June 26
Old: 40.8°C (105.4°F) at Steinsel on Jul. 25, 2019

Denmark
37.0°C (98.6°F) at Odum on June 27
Old: 36.4°C (97.5°F) at Holtstebro on Aug. 10, 1975

Germany
41.7°C (107.1°F) at Coschen on June 28
Old: 41.2°C (106.2°F) at two sites on Jul. 25, 2019

Czech Republic
41.9°C (107.4°F) at Doksany on June 28
Old: 40.4°C (104.7°F) at Dobrichovice on Aug. 20, 2012

Poland
40.5°C (104.9°F) at Slubice on June 28
Old: 40.2°C (104.4°F) at Proszkow on Jul. 29, 1921

Belarus
40.4°C (104.7°F) at Pinsk on June 29
Old: 38.9°C (102.0°F) at Gomel on Aug. 8, 2010

Slovakia
41.3°C (106.3°F) at Kamenice nad Hronom, June 30
Old: 41.0°C (105.8°F)at Tur?a nad Bodvou, June 29, 2026
Before that: 40.3°C (104.5°F) at Hurbanovo on Jul. 20, 2007

Hungary: 42.0°C (107.6°F) at Szecseny on June 30
Old: 41.9° (107.4°F) at Kiskunhalas on Jul. 20, 2007

Perhaps more extraordinary was the extreme humidity that accompanied the heat wave, which helped allow new all-time national records for highest minimum temperature to be set in every country in Europe except Italy and Greece, according to Herrera. His nomination for craziest record set in Europe was the 40.4°C (104.7°F) at Pinsk on June 29, which set a new all-time heat record for Belarus. Herrera commented:

Just think this:
All time record at Pinsk was 36.3°C in August 1905
??It took 121 years but it got smashed by 4.1°C
INSANE

This is a re-post from The Climate Brink by Andrew Dessler

I am finalizing a textbook on climate risk and am posting chapters as I finish them. I’d previously posted chapters about embedded energy, physical climate risk, and transition risk. This post is a chapter on attribution of extreme weather to climate change. It is an emerging battleground in the public debate over climate change, so this chapter is an opportunity to get up to speed on the science.

Introduction

In the aftermath of any major weather disaster, the question inevitably arises: “Did climate change cause this disaster?” However, this is a bad way to think about the problem.Climate change does not cause a rainstorm, a heatwave, or a hurricane in a direct sense. These hazards would still occur in a world without human influence on the climate: hurricanes would still form over warm ocean waters, heatwaves would remain a product of stationary high-pressure systems, and low-pressure systems will always generate rain and the occasional flood.

But climate change can make these events more intense. It takes a heatwave and pushes the temperature higher. It adds moisture to a rain event, generating more intense rainfall, enhancing flooding. Warmer oceans make a hurricane’s winds stronger and its rainfall more severe.

Therefore, the scientifically interesting question is not “Did climate change cause this?”, but about influence:

1.How much morelikely did climate change make this event?

2.How much moreintense did climate change make this event?

Answering these questions is the work of a rapidly advancing field of science called Extreme Event Attribution. This chapter will explore the methods scientists use to disentangle the roles of natural variability and climate change.

To understand the two different ways of looking at the problem, let’s examine a hot 38°C (99°F) day in a hypothetical city (like Houston, Texas) and examine each question in turn.

1. How much more likely has climate change made a 38°C day?

This figure sets up how scientists look at the problem.It shows two hypothetical distributions of daily temperature for the city. The red curve is the present-day distribution: the climate as it actually is today. The distributions tell you how often each temperature occurs in that world.For example, today’s temperature distribution peaks around 35°C with a value of 17%, meaning that 17% of days have temperatures around 35°C.

The blue curve is a counterfactual: the distribution that would occur in a world without climate change. For this hypothetical example, climate change has shifted the climate a few degrees toward warmer temperatures.

Given the two distributions, we can now answer the question of how much more likely a 38°C day is.In the counterfactual no-climate-change world, a 38°C day occurred on roughly 1.5% of days; in the present-day climate, it occurs on about 6% of days.

We define the relative risk to be the risk of the event in today’s climate divided by the risk in the counterfactual climate:

where Pa is the probability of the event in the world with climate change (6%) and Pc is the probability in the counterfactual world (1.5%). Thus, the relative risk in this example is 6%/1.5% = 4. We can therefore say that, “Climate change made this 38°C day four times as likely” or that, “The relative risk of a 38°C day is four.”

Because of the shape of the distributions, the relative risk increases with temperature.Using the same curves, a 42°C day occurs on 0.013% of days in the counterfactual world and 0.19% in the world with climate change, implying a relative risk of 15.This confirms that the hotter the day, the more the relative risk of that day has increased.In fact, we are approaching a world (if we’re not already there) with so much climate change that events occur that could not have occurred in the counterfactual world (Pc ≈ 0).For those events, the risk ratio is infinity.

Temperatures near average have a risk ratio around 1, meaning their probability isn’t changing much due to climate change.Below average temperatures (e.g., 27°C) have risk ratios less than one, indicating that they are occurring less often than in the counterfactual world.

2. How much did climate change warm this day?

This is a different way to ask the same question: how much hotter was the day because of climate change?To answer this, we look at the graph horizontally. We find the probability of a 38°C day on the present-day curve and trace it back to the same probability on the counterfactual curve.

In this example, we find that the same probability for today’s 38°C corresponds to a temperature of 36°C in the counterfactual climate. In this case, we can say, “Climate change made this hot day 2°C warmer.”

While some economic actors (e.g., governments, insurers) may focus on probability, most impact evaluations are clearer when examined through magnitude changes. In other words, it may be of more practical use to know that climate change warmed this day by 2°C or increased total rainfall by 30% than knowing that climate change increased the probability by a factor of four.

Thus, we can express climate change’s contribution to this hypothetical 38°C day in two ways.We can say that 1) climate change made the event four times more likely, or that 2) climate change added 2°C to the temperature.

Determining the counterfactual world

As discussed in the last section, estimating the impact of climate change on a meteorological event requires assessing the distribution of those events in the present-day world and in a counterfactual world without climate change.

To establish the present-day distribution of climate events (red curves in the plots above), researchers rely primarily on a combination of real-world observational records and numerical climate-model simulations of the present-day climate. To estimate the counterfactual climate (blue curves), the world that would have existed had human activities not altered the climate system, scientists will often run these same climate models but with human influences removed (e.g., carbon dioxide and other climate forcers set at pre-industrial values).

Researchers can also use historical observations to estimate the counterfactual climate. In some cases, researchers can use observations from a time period when human influence on the climate was small, such as the late 19th or early 20th century. As an example, this is a plot of Houston’s daily maximum temperature in the 1970s and 2016-2025:

There is a clear shift in the climate between these two periods, much — but not necessarily all of it — due to climate change.This shift made a day with a maximum temperature of 37°C (99°F) about 6.5 times more likely (i.e., risk ratio = 6.5); alternatively, it increased the temperature of this day by 2.3°C (4.1°F).

Notably, in the 1970s, daily maximum temperatures above 40°C (104°F) never occurred in Houston, but they did occur in the 2016-2025 period.Such days would therefore be considered virtually impossible without climate change.

One thing to look out for: After every extreme event, fossil-fuel interests will take to social media to point out that a more severe event — e.g., more rain, higher winds, and higher temperatures — occurred in, e.g., 18XX (some year in the late 19th century). They use this to incorrectly imply that climate change therefore could not have influenced the event.

But that’s a logical error.If you look at the probability distributions from Houston, you’ll see that you could have had a 39°C day in the counterfactual 1970s world (it’s just very unlikely). But the existence of a 39°C day in the 1970s doesn’t contradict the conclusion that the 37°C day you just lived through was enhanced by climate change.

Traditional detection and attribution

There is another way scientists connect climate change to extreme events known as detection and attribution.This approach focuses on trends in some quantity — for example, the trend in the annual maximum 1-day precipitation amount, with units of mm/decade.This is different from extreme event attribution, which focuses on individual extreme weather events.

As a simple example, suppose we have an observational time series of the aforementioned maximum daily rainfall at a station in the U.S. This gives us one number each year: the maximum daily rainfall in 1950, the maximum daily rainfall in 1951, and so on:

We want to know whether the variations in in this observed (synthetic) time series can be attributed to greenhouse gases from human activities, aerosols (basically air pollution and dust, this is partially due to human activities), or some combination of them. These different drivers have different trends over time: greenhouse gases have been steadily increasing, while aerosols in the U.S. increased until around 1970 and have declined since then.

The first step in detection and attribution is to run climate models to estimate the fingerprint of each process. To do this, scientists run climate models with just the increase in greenhouse gases, and then run the models again with just the changes in air pollution.These runs tell us what the observations would look like if just this forcing was present in the atmosphere.

We then compare the observed time series to the model fingerprints. A simple way to do this is with a regression model:

Here, obs(t) is the observed time series. G(t) is the greenhouse gas fingerprint timeseries, and A(t) is the aerosol fingerprint timeseries.

We then use regression techniques to estimate the coefficients bGHG and bAER, which tell us how much of each fingerprint is present in the observations. e is the residual, the part of the observations not explained by the fingerprints.

Here are the results:

In the left panel, the blue line is the synthetic observations and the orange line is the fit:

where G(t) and A(t) are the fingerprints above.As you can see, we can closely fit the observations with the fingerprints for greenhouse gases and aerosols.

Next, we examine the estimated coefficients (bGHG and bAER) and their uncertainty ranges (right panel). If a coefficient is statistically different from zero, we say that fingerprint has been detected. That’s the case here — the uncertainty bars do not cross zero — so the fingerprints for greenhouse gases and aerosols are detected.

This is the basic logic of detection and attribution.

Importantly, detection and attribution does not allow us to link specific events (e.g., Hurricane Harvey) to climate change.Rather, it allows us to connect the trend in some type of extreme weather (hurricanes) to human activities.

If you want to play around with a simple demonstration that shows how this works, click here.

This is an extremely powerful technique that has laid the foundation for much of our understanding of how climate change is affecting extreme weather.Here are some key results:

• Hot extremes and heatwaves: Humans are clearly making hot extremes more frequent and more intense through human-caused greenhouse gas emissions.

• Heavy precipitation: Human influence, especially greenhouse gas emissions, is likely the main driver of the observed global-scale intensification of heavy precipitation over land.

• Flash flooding due to extreme rainfall: Scientists have high confidence that stronger extreme precipitation leads to more frequent and larger surface-water and flash floods.

• Drought: Scientists have medium confidence that human-caused climate change has increased drought1 in some regions.

• Tropical cyclones: Scientists have medium confidence that human influence has contributed to extreme tropical cyclone rainfall.In addition, the global proportion of the strongest tropical cyclones has likely increased over the past four decades, a change that cannot be explained with natural factors alone.

• Fire weather: Scientists have concluded with medium confidence that compound hot, dry, and windy conditions have become more likely in some regions.

Confidence in attribution studies

In reading the previous section, you saw that scientists have varying levels of confidence in the attribution statements.Some conclusions are termed likely or very likely, and confidence may be medium or high.How is this confidence determined?

The foundation of any attribution study is a solid physical understanding of why climate change would affect a particular type of event. If we can’t provide a mechanism, you really can’t believe an attribution study.

For many extreme events, the physics is well-understood and there is a clear connection between the climate and the severity of the events:

• Heatwaves: Greenhouse gases trap heat, shifting the distribution of temperatures toward warmer values, thereby making extreme heat more probable.

• Rainfall: The connection is the physical fact that a warmer atmosphere can hold more water vapor. This means that when a storm system develops, there is more available moisture to convert into rain, leading to more intense downpours.

• Wildfires: Warmer temperatures produce a drier atmosphere, dry out vegetation and make it more flammable.Thus, wildfires are expected to be bigger and more intense in a warmer climate.

For other phenomena, the physics is murkier. For example, there is no robust theory explaining how the total number of tropical cyclones will change as the climate warms (tropical cyclone is the general term for storms known as hurricanes in the Atlantic, typhoons in the Pacific, and cyclones in the Indian Ocean).Right now, there are around 80 tropical cyclones per year around the planet, and we can’t explain why that’s the number.Why isn’t it 8?Or 800?We don’t know.Without such an understanding, we can’t really trust climate models’ counterfactual world for this.

But this doesn’t mean that we know nothing about tropical cyclones.There are strong physical arguments that tropical cyclones will get more intense (higher wind speeds) and rainier as the climate warms, which will cause more damage.As an example, severalgroupsanalyzed the impact of climate change on Hurricane Harvey’s enormous rainfall totals over Houston, Texas and they found that climate change increased rainfall by ~20%.The increase in wind speed means that we expect the fraction of tropical cyclones reaching the major storm category (cat 3-5) will increase as the climate warms, in general agreement with our observational record.

Once you have a physical mechanism, the other factors that determine confidence are things like:

• How good is the observational record?For some things, like temperature, we have good observations going back to the 19th century.For others, like tropical cyclones, good observations are only available during the satellite era, i.e., since the 1970s.With a shorter dataset, your confidence in any attribution study will be lower.

• How good are climate models at simulating the weather phenomenon?Most attribution studies require climate models to generate the various counterfactual worlds (the world without climate change).Climate models do a really good job with temperature, which is a large-scale atmospheric phenomenon.But they do a much poorer job with precipitation, which is a very small-scale process that models struggle with.

• How many independent studies have confirmed an attribution statement?In science, the gold standard for a rigorous conclusion is that it has been multiply replicated by independent scientific groups.While any individual study might be flawed, the odds of a major error go down significantly if several groups have independently reached the same conclusion.

It is also worth noting that there may be times when detection and attribution studies fail but extreme event attribution studies can still identify a contribution of climate change to an extreme event. For example, high quality time series of some extreme events (e.g., tropical cyclones) may go back only a few decades, which may be too short for confident detection and attribution. Extreme event attribution approaches, which do not rely on long time series of observations, are nevertheless able to conclude that climate change is making specific hurricanes stronger.

Conclusion

The science of extreme event attribution has transformed our ability to discuss the impacts of climate change. We can now make statements about how climate change affected the likelihood and intensity of individual events as well as the trends in extreme events. This helps demonstrate that climate change is indeed increasing the ‘hazard’ component of climate risk.

As the science of extreme event attribution has developed, it has increasingly moved into the legal and public policy arenas. Fossil fuel interests are terrified that someone will use extreme event attribution science to sue them for their contribution to a natural disaster, or that policymakers will use extreme event attribution science to justify policies to restrict fossil-fuel use.

Because of this, the legitimacy of extreme event attribution is frequently contested by fossil-fuel interests. So don’t be surprised if you hear a lot of misinformation about extreme event attribution in the future.And don’t think that, just because people are criticizing these studies, that criticism is legitimate.

Note that the techniques described in this chapter deal with the effects of climate change on hazards.A new subfield, extreme event impact attribution connects climate change to the actual impacts (e.g., number of houses burned down in a wildfire, dollars of flood damage).This is an emerging area of research, and I expect that this is something we’re going to hear a lot more about in the future.

This is a draft of a section of my climate risk textbook (slightly edited & reformatted to make it appropriate for Substack). I’d very much like to identify errors now, so if you see any, please let me know in the comments.

1 Different types of drought respond differently to climate change. In this case, we are talking about agricultural and ecological droughts.

A listing of 29 news and opinion articles we found interesting and shared on social media during the past week: Sun, June 28, 2026 thru Sat, July 4, 2026. Stories we promoted this week, by category:

Climate Change Impacts (11 articles)

• The scientist and his family tracking melting glaciers for nearly half a century PBS NewsHour, Ben Tracy, June 22, 2026.
• Europe’s record heatwave: does the continent have a new climate? Nature asks researchers whether scorching summers are the new norm for London, Paris and Berlin. Nature, Edward Chen, June 26, 2026.
• How climate change gets under the skin Researchers unearth clues about how repeat, overlapping climate stressors, from flood-related mold to warming water temperatures to higher pollen counts, affect everyone Grist, Zoya Teirstein, Jun 28, 2026.
• Climate change to blame for intensity of Europe heat wave: Scientists Phys.org, Nick Perry, Jun 28, 2026.
• Could this be Australia`s warmest winter ever? The seasons underway in Australia exemplify a worldwide trend of unseasonably high temperatures, including the early summer heatwave in western Europe. The Conversation, Milton Speer, University of Technology Sydney, Lance M Leslie, University of Technology Sydney, Jun 29, 2026.
• Loading the Heat Dice Without human influence, the recent European heatwave would have been more than 3°C cooler. Climate Trunk, John Lang, Jun 30, 2026.
• How climate change influences extreme weather How science shows us how warming makes heat waves, floods, hurricanes, and wildfires more likely or more severe — and why this science is becoming a major public-policy battleground. The Climate Brink, Andrew Dessler, Jun 30, 2026.
• The world`s oceans are the hottest on record for June - and El Niño is set to turn up the heat even more Average sea surface temperature is just under 21°C across the world’s tropical and temperate oceans, while before widespread industrialisation in 1870 the temperature was about 19.6°C. The Conversation, Matthew England, Alex Sen Gupta, Alistair Hobday, Jul 02, 2026.
• Tour de France braced for historic stage cancellations amid 44C European heatwave The 2026 Tour de France, which starts in Barcelona on Saturday, is steeling itself for climate change disruption with another extreme heatwave predicted to return to Europe in the coming days which could lead to stages being cancelled. The Guardian, Jeremy Whittle in Barcelona, Jul 02, 2026.
• Without Climate Change, U.S. Heat Wave Called `Virtually Impossible` Scientists have said the conditions are the result of a climate that is “fundamentally different” from the time before fossil fuel use started rapidly warming the world. NYT, Raymond Zhong, Jul 03, 2026.
• Sydney records hottest June since 1859 as expert warns new high a `signature` of global warming Prof Andy Pitman, a Sydney-based climate scientist, expressed a “complete lack of surprise” at the new record. The Guardian, Ima Caldwell, Jul 04, 2026.

Climate Policy and Politics (4 articles)

• Why is America switching off its climate warning system? "Just have a Think" on Youtube, Dave Borlace, June 28, 2026.
• Can climate shocks change how people feel about paying taxes? Researchers further confirm that visibly effective climate adaptation and mitigation efforts improve public willingness to pay for better circumstances. The Conversation, Enrico Nichelatti, Postdoctoral researcher, University of Luxembourg, Abrams Tagem, Tax Research Specialist, Jun 29, 2026.
• New Florida law bans local net-zero emissions policies Gov. Ron DeSantis characterized the clean energy goals the law bans as “radical climate policies,” although experts say the law will not necessarily upend the plans. Inside Climate News, Amy Green, Jun 30, 2026.
• Q&A: How will the World Bank`s abandoned finance goal affect climate action? The World Bank has abandoned a target for 45% of the funding it gives developing countries to be “climate finance”, following months of pressure from the Trump administration in the US. Carbon Brief, Josh Gabbatiss, Jul 03, 2026.

Health Aspects of Climate Change (4 articles)

• `A sad inevitability`: after decades of climate warnings, why is Europe so unprepared for rising heat? Scorching summer of 2003 triggered first efforts to deal with the problem but heatwaves still have devastating impact The Guardian, Ajit Niranjan, Jun 27, 2026.
• Unbearable Heat for Hundreds of Millions The Global South, in particular, is suffering from the consequences of global heating. A new study quantifies heat stress in India by projecting it during the critical seasons. Eos, Thomas Stocker, Jun 29, 2026.
• How extreme heat is exposing extreme inequality The climate crisis and worsening disparity could be responsible for more than 100,000 deaths a year in Europe, which should set off alarm bells for policymakers The Guardian, Ashifa Kassam, Jul 01, 2026.
• Climate change will raise the risk of severe heatwaves. NZ homes aren`t ready The Conversation, Baxter Kamana-Williams, J. Geoffrey Chase, Rebecca Peer, Jul 02, 2026.

Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation (3 articles)

• Another Trump Administration Payment to Stop Offshore Wind Farm With the fourth such deal struck by the administration to get companies to forfeit their offshore wind leases, the public is still left wondering why. NYT, Maxine Joselow, Jun 29, 2026.
• `But we`re just 1% of emissions`: do smaller countries` climate efforts matter? Past and present leaders of wealthy nations such as UK and Germany have argued their actions are insignificant The Guardian, Ajit Niranjan, Jun 30, 2026.
• World gets glimpse of its climate future Political risk analyst Kyle Volpi Hiebert compares how we're doing with energy modernization vs. the impact on human civilization of our continued employment of outmoded and dangerious fossil fuels. Brandon Sun, By Kyle Volpi Hiebert, Jul 04, 2026.

Climate Science and Research (3 articles)

• Is Climate Change Ramping Up El Niño Risks? ClimateAdam on Youtube, Adam Levy, June 27, 2026.
• Editorial: It’s time to step up and have your say for science Your comments on a dangerous rule putting politicals in charge of science can matter Ars Technica, John Timmer, Jul 2, 2026.
• Skeptical Science New Research for Week #27 2026 Skeptical Science's weekly survey of climate research, highlighting open access reports that we can all read. Skeptical Science, Doug Bostrom & Marc Kodack, Jul 02, 2026.

Miscellaneous (3 articles)

• A few reasons to feel hopeful about the climate in 2026 Environment, The Conversation UK, Will de Freitas, Jan 8, 2026.
• 2026 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #26 A listing of 28 news and opinion articles we found interesting and shared on social media during the past week: Sun, June 21, 2026 thru Sat, June 27, 2026. Skeptical Science, Bärbel Winkler & Doug Bostrom, Jun 28, 2026.
• Amid USFS Upheaval, Utah and Colorado Are Burning Eos, Emily Gardner, Jul 02, 2026.

Public Misunderstandings about Climate Solutions (1 article)

• Fact brief - Are injuries from wind turbines common? No - Wind turbine collapses or blade failures are extremely uncommon, and wind power causes far fewer deaths per unit of electricity than fossil fuels. Skeptical Science, Sue Bin Park, June 30, 2026.

If you happen upon high quality climate-science and/or climate-myth busting articles from reliable sources while surfing the web, please feel free to submit them via this Google form so that we may share them widely. Thanks!

Open access notables

Warming climate has lengthened global intense tropical cyclone seasons, Liu et al., Nature Communication

Intense tropical cyclones (TCs), which pose serious threats to human life and property, often occur within a short period of time each year, known as the intense TC season. Changes in the lengths of intense TC seasons under climate change are critical scientific and socioeconomic issues. While trends in overall TC seasons have been widely studied, the response of intense TC seasons to climate change remains underexplored. Here, we show that intense TC seasons have been lengthening globally since 1980, with statistically significant increasing trends ranging from 9.9–13.8 days/decade across all basins, equivalent to 7.4–21.9% increase in intense TC season lengths per decade. This is primarily due to the enhancing probability of off-season TCs experiencing rapid intensification, which is partly driven by oceanic warming. Meanwhile, changes in background atmospheric circulation play a role in the complexity of intense TC seasonality change. As a result, off-season TCs are more likely to develop into intense TCs. The findings in this study indicate an increasing exposure of human societies to intense TC risks outside historical seasonal norms. This suggests the urgent need for preparation and mitigation measures for the potential risks of intense TCs under future climate change.

Abrupt permafrost thaw drives exceptional carbon release across the Tibetan Plateau, Jia et al., Nature Communications

Climate warming is accelerating abrupt permafrost thaw, driving substantial carbon emissions. Retrogressive thaw slumps (RTSs) represent the most severe instance of abrupt permafrost thaw, yet their carbon emissions remain poorly quantified due to limited observations. Here, by synthesizing 4728 RTS incidents and 1862 in-situ CO2 and CH4 measurements from RTS-affected zones across the Tibetan Plateau, we estimate that the area of RTS susceptibility will expand by 17–19% by 2100 relative to 2022, driven primarily by precipitation changes. Compared to control areas, the ecosystem respiration rate in collapsed areas decreases by 14.4%, while CH4 release rate increases by 20.0%. The combined CO2 and CH4 release associated with RTS expansion increased 1.1-fold between 2016 and 2022. Under the intermediate Shared Socioeconomic Pathways scenario, carbon emissions from RTS-susceptible areas are projected to surge 2.7-fold by 2100. These findings highlight that abrupt thaw strengthens permafrost carbon-climate feedback in high-altitude regions, underscoring the urgent need for targeted permafrost protection strategies to achieve carbon neutrality goals.

Influence of seismic energy dissipation technology on carbon emission of building construction, Zhang et al., Scientific Reports

This study aims to simultaneously enhance structural safety and reduce carbon emissions using the seismic energy dissipation technology. Eight reinforced concrete frame structures with varying numbers of floors are selected as case studies in accordance with the Chinese design code. By incorporating additional energy dissipation devices, the required dimensions of structural components in structures with damper (SWD) are reduced compared with structures without damper (SWOD), thereby lowering carbon emissions and improving seismic performance. Both SWOD and SWD systems are designed for each of the eight reinforced concrete frame structures for comparative analysis. Structural component dimensions are calculated using SAUSG software, and key performance indicators, including the natural period and inter-story drift ratio, are analyzed to verify compliance with code-specified safety requirements. Engineering quantities and life-cycle energy consumption are quantified, including the production and transportation of materials, as well as construction and dismantling stages. The results indicate that SWDs reduce material and energy consumption, with average carbon emissions 17.4% lower than those of SWODs. This study provides a novel perspective on carbon emission reduction during the design phase and offers an effective technical pathway for the coordinated development of low-carbon buildings and seismic resilience.

Ideological drivers of climate obstruction and delay: political parties and public opinion in Spain, Ochoa et al., Journal of Environmental Studies and Sciences

This study contributes to the growing body of international research examining how political actors strategically resist or slow down climate action despite scientific consensus. It combines a cross-sectional public opinion survey with a systematic analysis of political party manifestos. The study identifies clear ideological differences between parties and their supporters in regard to how climate change is framed and addressed. While most respondents acknowledge anthropogenic climate change and express support for stronger government action, significant segments resist lifestyle changes and consider resource extraction to be unavoidable. Left-leaning voters tend to emphasize collective responsibility and call for stronger public intervention. In contrast, conservative and far-right voters are more likely to downplay human causation, prioritize economic growth, and frame climate disruption as being driven by natural forces. Party programs across the political spectrum indeed mirror these tensions by promoting incremental rather than transformative measures. The Far-right nationalist narratives of sovereignty and securitization further serve to delegitimize mitigation efforts. The Old and New Right parties try to avoid regulations and thus oppose decisive government intervention in environmental matters. The findings show that political polarization plays a central role in shaping attitudes towards climate policy in Spain, in line with broader European trends whereby far-right parties promote climate delay narratives. The research also identifies that climate delay is a structural phenomenon, rooted in the intersection of ideologies such as capitalism, nationalism, and patriarchy, rather than a purely partisan one.

Negative partisanship, positive partisanship, and variation in climate policy attitudes on the political right, Huddart et al., PNAS Nexus

Conservatives are more likely than liberals to oppose climate policies, resulting in political polarization over climate change. Most research treats this gap as if it reflects two cohesive blocs on opposite sides of an issue. Drawing on original survey data from a probability sample of Canadians (n = 2,503), we find that while liberals are highly uniform in their orientation toward climate policies, conservatives are far more heterogeneous. Further analyses reveal conservatives' policy positions strongly correlate with their partisan affect—both the extent to which they dislike opposing liberals (negative partisanship) and the extent to which they like fellow conservatives (positive partisanship). These findings highlight the importance of considering variation within, and not just between, political sides. The results additionally suggest that reducing hostility toward the other side (particularly among conservatives) may facilitate cross-ideological climate coalitions.

From this week's government/NGO section:

Global trends in climate change litigation: 2026 snapshot, Joana Setzer and Catherine Higham, Global School of Sustainability, London School of Economics

The authors identify the following key trends for the period January to December 2025: in 2025, 249 new climate cases were filed, bringing the total since 1986 to more than 3,600 cases. Over three quarters of these cases have been filed since 2015, the year of the Paris Agreement. Cases have been filed across 62 countries, up from just 17 countries a decade ago. In 2025, cases were newly filed in Grenada, Guatemala, Kazakhstan, Malaysia, Singapore and Zambia. • The United States remains the jurisdiction with the highest number of cases: 151 new cases were recorded in 2025, bringing the total to 2,078.

Fossil fuel emissions have rapidly worsened European heatwaves in just a few decades, Keeping et al., World Weather Attribution

Just weeks after a severe heatwave that broke all-time May records, Europe is experiencing another major heatwave that is breaking June and annual records. This is particularly remarkable given that June is not historically the hottest month in Western Europe. The authors assessed to what extent human-induced climate change altered the likelihood and intensity of the extreme heat in Western Europe. The analysis focuses on the 3 hottest days and nights over the most affected area and additional analysis of the 19 capitals of the affected countries. This June 2026 heatwave occurred under a circulation pattern broadly similar to historical analogues – Southerly Flow. However, a similar circulation pattern now produces significantly hotter temperatures than it did in the mid-20th century because the climate baseline has warmed. This summer shows that at 1.4°C of global warming, extreme heat is already reaching the limits of our societies’ ability to cope. The analysis shows that intense heat is increasing rapidly even in living memory, with such events tens to hundreds of times more likely since only 2003 and virtually impossible just 50 years ago. 120 articles in 58 journals by 790 contributing authors

Physical science of climate change, effects

AMOC response to historical freshwater increase, Devilliers et al., Nature Geoscience 10.1038/s41561-026-02028-8

Barents-Kara Sea Ice Variability Drives Stronger Tropospheric Anomalies Over East Asia After 2000 Due To Weakened Stratospheric Polar Vortex, Zhang et al., Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres 10.1029/2025jd046058

Declining tropical sea surface temperature variability under post-2050s greenhouse warming, Wang & Santoso, Nature Climate Change 10.1038/s41558-026-02684-z

Distinguishing the Direct Radiative, Surface Warming, and Ozone Mediated Contributions to the Acceleration of the Brewer–Dobson Circulation under Abrupt CO2 Forcing, Menzel et al., Journal of Climate 10.1175/jcli-d-25-0515.1

Reply to: AMOC response to historical freshwater increase, Pontes & Menviel, Nature Geoscience 10.1038/s41561-026-02029-7

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Temporal Variability of Ventilation in the Eurasian Arctic Ocean, Journal of Geophysical Research Oceans, 10.1029/2023jc020608 6 cites.

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Observations of climate change, effects

Marine Heatwaves Have Increased in Frequency, Duration, and Depth Across Southeast Asia, Gulakaram et al., Journal of Geophysical Research Oceans Open Access 10.1029/2025jc023614

Tropical origins of the recent trends in Northern Hemisphere wintertime jet streams, Rivière et al., Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-026-74980-3

Warming climate has lengthened global intense tropical cyclone seasons, Liu et al., Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-026-74651-3

Warming Tropical Western Pacific Fuels More Frequent Winter Surface Wind Extremes over the South China Sea, Shi et al., Journal of Climate 10.1175/jcli-d-26-0047.1

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Climate-driven deoxygenation of northern lakes, Nature Climate Change, 10.1038/s41558-024-02058-3 77 cites.

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Instrumentation & observational methods of climate change, effects

A Coordinated Framework for Global Climate Reanalyses, Cobb et al., Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 10.1175/bams-d-25-0056.1

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Independent Quality Assessment of Essential Climate Variables: Lessons Learned from the Copernicus Climate Change Service, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 10.1175/bams-d-21-0109.1 18 cites.

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Modeling, simulation & projection of climate change, effects

Assessing Earth's Energy Imbalance Trend in the Early 21st Century in Two High-Resolution Coupled Models, Chen et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2025gl121277

Past Global Warming Influence on Intense Typhoons Reaching Southern China During El Niño and La Niña Using a Variable Resolution Global Model, Zheng et al., Atmospheric Science Letters Open Access 10.1002/asl2.70052

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Collapsed upwelling projected to weaken ENSO under sustained warming beyond the twenty-first century, Nature Climate Change, 10.1038/s41558-024-02061-8 35 cites.

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Advancement of climate & climate effects modeling, simulation & projection

Extreme Precipitation in the Contiguous United States in Gridded Analyses and a Convection-Permitting Model Simulation, Schumacher & Hill, Journal of Hydrometeorology 10.1175/jhm-d-25-0212.1

Observational Data for Next-Generation Climate Model Evaluation: Requirements, Considerations, and Best Practices, Beadling et al., Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society Open Access 10.1175/bams-d-25-0079.1

Opinion: status, plans and needs of Southern Ocean modelling, Martin et al., Ocean science Open Access 10.5194/os-22-1429-2026

Unlocking Urban Climate Change Analysis in Global Kilometer-Scale Climate Simulations, Pedruzo-Bagazgoitia et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2025gl120583

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
General circulation models simulate negative liquid water path–droplet number correlations, but anthropogenic aerosols still increase simulated liquid water path, Atmospheric chemistry and physics, 10.5194/acp-24-7331-2024 34 cites.

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Cryosphere & climate change

A Sea Ice Entrapment Event in the Southern Chukchi Sea: Analysis and Prediction, Moore et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2025gl121181

Detection and attribution of the role of anthropogenic climate change in industrial-era retreat of Pine Island Glacier, Bradley et al., cryosphere Open Access pdf 10.5194/tc-20-3443-2026

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:

Accelerating glacier volume loss on Juneau Icefield driven by hypsometry and melt-accelerating feedbacks, Nature Communications, 10.1038/s41467-024-49269-y 33 cites.

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Sea level & climate change
Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Stakeholder Driven Sensor Deployments to Characterize Chronic Coastal Flooding in Key West Florida, Earth s Future, 10.1029/2023ef003631 3 cites.

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Paleoclimate & paleogeochemistry

Volcanic eruptions caused weakening AMOC during the preindustrial past millennium, Chen et al., Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-026-74873-5

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Past Earth warmed by tidal resonance-induced organization of clouds under a shorter day, Nature Geoscience, 10.1038/s41561-024-01469-3 3 cites.

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Biology & climate change, related geochemistry

A framework for climate-resilient forest planning and restoration: advances linking species distribution modelling, genetic adaptation and future climate scenarios, Chacón-Moreno et al., Frontiers in Forests and Global Change Open Access 10.3389/ffgc.2026.1735354

Climate Change Has Impacted Tree Growth in Temperate and Boreal Forests Since the Beginning of the 21st Century, a Meta-Analysis Tells Us, Sergeant et al., Global Ecology and Biogeography 10.1111/geb.70239

Climate change is causing more local extinction of temperate species than tropical species, [authors did not process], Nature Climate Change 10.1038/s41558-026-02671-4

Climate impacts on the multidiversity–multifunctionality relationship change with habitat type, Antiqueira et al., Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B Biological Sciences Open Access 10.1098/rstb.2024.0392

Climate-Driven Range Dynamics of the Chinese Giant Salamander: Past, Present, and Future Projections From Ensemble Species Distribution Models, Zhao et al., Ecology and Evolution Open Access 10.1002/ece3.73474

Concepts and Methods for Identifying Species Niche Edges, Potentially Truncated Edges, and Climate Risks and Opportunities, Schlenker & Williams, Global Ecology and Biogeography Open Access 10.1111/geb.70241

Distinguishing leaf scorching from senescence under climate extremes, Bergström et al., Nature Climate Change 10.1038/s41558-026-02682-1

Historical Imprints and Future Shifts: Evolutionary Biogeography of Atlantic Reef Fishes Under Climate Change, Cord et al., Global Ecology and Biogeography 10.1111/geb.70259

Kelp forests modulate fish community dynamics and responses to ocean warming, Reis et al., Journal of Ecology Open Access 10.1111/1365-2745.70383

Mass mortality of avian migrants in New Mexico, USA, that coincided with an extreme weather event, Osterhaus et al., Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution Open Access pdf 10.3389/fevo.2026.1763394

Natural microcosms are bellwether model systems in ecology and evolutionary biology especially under climate change, Pincebourde & Borges, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B Biological Sciences Open Access 10.1098/rstb.2024.0378

Over three-quarters of earthworm species lack protection in China, a crisis exacerbated by climate change, Zhou et al., Ecography Open Access 10.1002/ecog.08554

Prioritizing Conservation of Trailing-Edge Populations for Future Climate-Resilient Forests, Boyce et al., Global Change Biology Open Access 10.1111/gcb.70971

Relative importance of traits, climate, and threats to extinction risk in salamanders, Wang et al., Conservation Biology 10.1111/cobi.70281

Resource declines shape phenological and morphological responses to climate change, Probst et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 10.1073/pnas.2607714123

Rising tree mortality in France is associated with distinct seasonal climate anomalies, Schneider et al., Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-026-74613-9

Sea of Okhotsk warming impacts adult return abundance of southwestern marginal Chum salmon populations over four decades, Kim et al., Scientific Reports Open Access 10.1038/s41598-026-58635-3

Shifting growth–climate limitations in Canadian forests under recent climate change, Sang et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-026-03713-7

Small ecosystems, big insights: tank bromeliads as model systems to investigate human-induced global changes, Antiqueira & Romero, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B Biological Sciences Open Access 10.1098/rstb.2024.0393

Topography constrains the climatic response of treeline migration in Taiwan's subalpine forests, Chen et al., Ecography Open Access 10.1002/ecog.08500

Unique fingerprint of marine ectotherm body size change during hyperthermal crises, Nätscher et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Open Access 10.1073/pnas.2505564123

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
High temperatures reduce growth, infection, and transmission of a naturally occurring fungal plant pathogen, Ecology, 10.1002/ecy.4373 28 cites.

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GHG sources & sinks, flux, related geochemistry

Abrupt permafrost thaw drives exceptional carbon release across the Tibetan Plateau, Jia et al., Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-026-74850-y

Blue carbon storage in surface sediments of seagrasses and mangroves for Mauritian inventories, Santos et al., Scientific Reports Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41598-026-58343-y

Carbon dioxide removals by tropical moist forests offset most land-use emissions across 18 Afrotropical countries, Verbiest et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-026-03710-w

China's growing halogenated gas emissions and banks over 1980-2024: Impacts on ozone, climate, and trifluoroacetic acid, Bai et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2026.04.009

Comment on Ju et al. (2025): Global Declines in Mangrove Area and Carbon Stock From 1985 to 2020, Bunting et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2025gl118093

Comment on “Tracking Ethane From Space Over a Large US Oil and Gas Region” by Francoeur et al., Millet et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2025gl119868

Concerns on the human-induced biospheric carbon sink in the Taklamakan Desert, Xu, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Open Access pdf 10.1073/pnas.2612132123

Global Peatland Carbon Pool Sizes: Current Estimates, Uncertainties, and Future Research Directions, Ren et al., Global Change Biology 10.1111/gcb.70882

Heterotrophic bacteria in the dark ocean are major contributors to CO2 fixation, [authors did not process], Nature Geoscience 10.1038/s41561-026-02014-0

Impacts of bed topography resolution on sea-level rise projections from coupled subglacial hydrology and ice dynamics for Thwaites Glacier, Antarctica, Ehrenfeucht & Dow, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A Mathematical Physical and Engineering Sciences Open Access 10.1098/rsta.2024.0545

Land Carbon Sink Distribution in Northern Eurasia Is Driven by Climate Change, Melnikova et al., Global Biogeochemical Cycles Open Access 10.1029/2025gb008971

Misattributed biospheric carbon sink to the Three-North Program in the Taklamakan Desert may lead to an impractical policy: A commentary, Gao et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Open Access 10.1073/pnas.2607916123

Multi-centennial response of marine carbon pumps to global warming, Khatiwala et al., Nature Climate Change 10.1038/s41558-026-02686-x

Multidecadal preindustrial methane variability can be explained by noise in the source–sink imbalance, Mei et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Open Access pdf 10.1073/pnas.2601235123

OzRiCa: an Australian riverine carbon database of concentrations, gas fluxes and isotopes, Ulloa-Cedamanos et al., Earth system science data Open Access pdf 10.5194/essd-18-2723-2026

Rapid changes in global river particulate organic carbon flux, et al., Nature Geoscience 10.1038/s41561-026-02034-w

Reply to Comment by Bunting et al. on “Global Declines in Mangrove Area and Carbon-Stock From 1985 to 2020”, Ju et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2025gl121242

Reply to Comment by Millet et al. on “Tracking Ethane From Space Over a Large US Oil and Gas Region”, Francoeur et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1029/2026gl122208

Reply to Gao et al. and Xu: Greening the Taklamakan: Human efforts to convert desert into a carbon sink, Noor et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Open Access 10.1073/pnas.2609809123

Temperate wetlands lose climate-cooling capacity under warming, Ma et al., Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-026-74772-9

Thawing Siberian permafrost stabilizes organic carbon from recent plant litter inputs, Knoblauch et al., Biogeosciences Open Access pdf 10.5194/bg-23-3615-2026

Tidal Inundation Decreases Carbon Dioxide Exchange in an Irish Atlantic Saltmarsh, Jessen et al., Journal of Geophysical Research Biogeosciences Open Access 10.1029/2025jg009040

Top-down benchmark of US methane inventories reveals regional discrepancies in activity-based estimates, Worden et al., Atmospheric chemistry and physics Open Access 10.5194/acp-26-8855-2026

Warming dominates over circulation slowdown in reducing marine carbon storage under high-mitigation scenarios, [authors did not process], Nature Climate Change 10.1038/s41558-026-02687-w

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Human degradation of tropical moist forests is greater than previously estimated, Nature, 10.1038/s41586-024-07629-0 123 cites.

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CO2 capture, sequestration science & engineering

Applying the Bow Tie Method to Evaluate Emerging Risk: The Case of Carbon Capture and Water Stress, Weisner et al., Risk Analysis Open Access pdf 10.1111/risa.70296

Biotechnological innovations in the realm of carbon capture, storage and utilization, Jofre et al., Frontiers in Climate Open Access pdf 10.3389/fclim.2026.1805906

Rethinking solvent regeneration pathways for maritime carbon capture, Shi et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-026-74909-w

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Organic blue carbon sequestration in vegetated coastal wetlands: Processes and influencing factors, Earth-Science Reviews, 10.1016/j.earscirev.2024.104853 59 cites.

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Decarbonization

A risk-informed multicriteria framework for ocean current energy site selection for Small Island Developing States, Oladejo et al., Scientific Reports Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41598-026-56952-1

Batteries versus fuel cells for decarbonizing medium- and heavy-duty vehicles across applications, Woody et al., Nature Energy 10.1038/s41560-026-02095-6

Decoupling development from concrete, Kane, Nature Sustainability 10.1038/s41893-026-01883-y

Hyperbranched dielectric polymer networks exhibiting giant energy storage density at 250 °C, Ran et al., Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-026-74830-2

Influence of seismic energy dissipation technology on carbon emission of building construction, Zhang et al., Scientific Reports Open Access 10.1038/s41598-026-59044-2

Onshore Wind Energy Development Causes Localized but Lasting Shifts in Plant Community Composition and Function, Seifert et al., Ecology and Evolution Open Access 10.1002/ece3.73916

The PAINT database for operational concentrating solar power plant data following FAIR data principles, Phipps et al., KITopen Open Access 10.5445/ir/1000194409

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Understanding the large role of long-distance travel in carbon emissions from passenger travel, Nature Energy, 10.1038/s41560-024-01561-3 39 cites.

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Geoengineering climate
Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Public perceptions on solar geoengineering from focus groups in 22 countries, Communications Earth & Environment, 10.1038/s43247-024-01518-0 19 cites.

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Black carbon
Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Long-Term Trend in Black Carbon Mass Concentration Over Central Indo-Gangetic Plain Location: Understanding the Implied Change in Radiative Forcing, Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres, 10.1029/2024jd040754 15 cites.

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Aerosols

Accelerated European Summer Warming Driven by Atmospheric Circulation Changes in Response to Aerosol Forcing, Roldán-Gómez et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2026gl122424

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Sensitivity of cloud microphysics to aerosol is highly associated with cloud water content: Implications for indirect radiative forcing, Atmospheric Research, 10.1016/j.atmosres.2024.107552 14 cites.

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Climate change communications & cognition

A climate action intervention boosts key psychological drivers, increasing climate advocacy, sustainable eating and supporting education behaviours, Castiglione et al., Royal Society Open Science Open Access pdf 10.1098/rsos.260140

Climate change knowledge, attitude, risk perception, and health adaptation behavior in an urban megacity, Sakib et al., PLOS Climate Open Access 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000901

Climate-Related Disasters, Inequality, and Tax Morale in Sub-Saharan Africa, Nichelatti & Tagem, The Journal of Development Studies Open Access pdf 10.1080/00220388.2026.2658564

Fossil fuel phaseout, renewable energy, and just transition discourse at COP26 and COP28: A discourse network analysis of Instagram posts, Shakespear et al., Energy Research & Social Science Open Access 10.1016/j.erss.2026.104724

Fossil fuel reliance and public support for climate change mitigation: evidence from 105 countries, Klebl et al., Environmental Politics Open Access pdf 10.1080/09644016.2026.2691468

Ideological drivers of climate obstruction and delay: political parties and public opinion in Spain, Ochoa et al., Journal of Environmental Studies and Sciences Open Access pdf 10.1007/s13412-026-01127-7

Media Portrayals of Net Zero: Stakeholders’ Perspectives and Climate Solutions Framing, Rhodes et al., Environmental Communication 10.1080/17524032.2026.2692085

Negative partisanship, positive partisanship, and variation in climate policy attitudes on the political right, Huddart et al., PNAS Nexus Open Access pdf 10.1093/pnasnexus/pgag094

Place, Climate Change and the Experience of Loss, Biasio & Velasco, Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews Climate Change Open Access 10.1002/wcc.70056

Public support for climate action is underestimated in the German political domain, Sevincer et al., PubData Open Access 10.48548/pubdata-3925

Responsibility, risk and climate policy support, Im, Environmental Sociology Open Access pdf 10.1080/23251042.2026.2691099

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Climate beliefs, climate technologies and transformation pathways: Contextualizing public perceptions in 22 countries, Global Environmental Change, 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2024.102880 33 cites.

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Agronomy, animal husbundry, food production & climate change

Adoption of climate smart agriculture for enhancing socio-ecological resilience: a systematic review of evidence from Punjab, Pakistan, Ullah et al., Frontiers in Environmental Science Open Access pdf 10.3389/fenvs.2026.1853469

Climate change and oil palm: impacts and adaptation strategies for resilient production, Ramachandrudu et al., Frontiers in Climate Open Access pdf 10.3389/fclim.2026.1862586

Environmental claims, climate promises, and ‘greenwashing’ by meat and dairy companies, Bach et al., PLOS Climate Open Access 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000773

Genetic technologies to enhance crop nutritional value under climate change, Straeten et al., Nature 10.1038/s41586-026-10593-6

Increased Likelihood and Intensification of Global Agricultural Droughts Under Compound Meteorological Droughts and Hot Extremes, Zhang et al., Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres 10.1029/2025jd045918

Increasing irrigation demand coincides with declining irrigation development potential under climate change, Sun et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-026-03775-7

Leveraging farmers’ social networks to improve co-production and dissemination of climate information services in SSA: a systematic review, Appiah et al., Climate and Development 10.1080/17565529.2026.2689985

Promoting climate resilience through learning-based behavioural change: Insights from an agent-based model of a coastal farming community in Guangxi, China, Nie et al., Environmental Science & Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.envsci.2026.104375

Spatially explicit temperature optima improve climate impact assessment of global crop productivity, Wang et al., Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-026-74564-1

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Soil carbon maintained by perennial grasslands over 30 years but lost in field crop systems in a temperate Mollisol, Communications Earth & Environment, 10.1038/s43247-024-01500-w 28 cites.

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Hydrology, hydrometeorology & climate change

Impacts of Meteorological, Hydrological, and Compound Droughts on the Precipitation–Runoff Relationship Across Timescales, An et al., Earth s Future Open Access 10.1029/2025ef006795

Increasing global threat of outburst floods from overlooked small alpine lakes, Ahmed et al., Nature Sustainability 10.1038/s41893-026-01873-0

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Non-stationary low flow frequency analysis under climate change, Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 10.1007/s00704-024-05081-8 10 cites.

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Climate change economics

Comprehensive national climate damage assessments framework applied to the UK, Rising et al., Nature Climate Change 10.1038/s41558-026-02665-2

Improving economic impact assessment of climate change with machine learning, Orlov & Sillmann, Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-026-73956-7

Multi-channel analysis suggests the UK faces large climate-related losses, [authors did not process], Nature Climate Change 10.1038/s41558-026-02664-3

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Asset-level assessment of climate physical risk matters for adaptation finance, Nature Communications, 10.1038/s41467-024-48820-1 41 cites.

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Climate change mitigation public policy research

Carbon emission trading scheme, induced technological change, and green innovation: Evidence from listed companies in China, Tang et al., Energy Policy 10.1016/j.enpol.2026.115335

From policy to reality: Forecasting Spain's vehicle fleet trajectory toward 2030 climate targets, Díaz-Díaz et al., Energy Policy 10.1016/j.enpol.2026.115298

Malleable Preferences and the Normative Desirability of Demand-Side Solutions to Climate Change, Berger & Creutzig, Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews Climate Change Open Access 10.1002/wcc.70079

Planning, policy, and accountability: Managing the renewable energy transition for sustainable development in Nigeria, Adedokun, Energy Research & Social Science Open Access 10.1016/j.erss.2026.104706

The impact of the UK's withdrawal from the EU ETS on firms' carbon emissions: evidence from the UK ETS, Chiappari et al., Climate Policy 10.1080/14693062.2026.2691436

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Diversifying heat sources in China’s urban district heating systems will reduce risk of carbon lock-in, Nature Energy, 10.1038/s41560-024-01560-4 51 cites.

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Climate change adaptation & adaptation public policy research

Addressing barriers in climate action planning: an analysis based on six Italian territories, Ravazzoli et al., Frontiers in Climate Open Access pdf 10.3389/fclim.2026.1828407

Assessing adaptive capacity to multi-hazard climate health risks in China's provinces and core cities, Hong et al., Urban Climate 10.1016/j.uclim.2026.102890

Refined Modeling of Arctic Circumpolar Building Stock Increases Estimated Mid-Century Permafrost Degradation Damages, Manos et al., Earth s Future Open Access 10.1029/2026ef008578

Severe droughts in Senegal are linked to increased family reunification at migration destinations in Europe, Savas, Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-026-74655-z

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
The challenge of closing the climate adaptation gap for water supply utilities, Communications Earth & Environment, 10.1038/s43247-024-01272-3 22 cites.

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Climate change impacts on human health

Assessing adaptive capacity to multi-hazard climate health risks in China's provinces and core cities, Hong et al., Urban Climate 10.1016/j.uclim.2026.102890

Climate change knowledge, attitude, risk perception, and health adaptation behavior in an urban megacity, Sakib et al., PLOS Climate Open Access 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000901

Emerging heat resilience demands among tourist destinations for building responsible tourism: An empirical investigation in 291 A-level scenic spots in Chongqing, China, Mao et al., Urban Climate 10.1016/j.uclim.2026.102877

Urban compound humid-heat exposure: Health risks, mitigation challenges, and pathways toward integrated adaptation, Qian et al., Urban Climate 10.1016/j.uclim.2026.102881

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Temperature-related neonatal deaths attributable to climate change in 29 low- and middle-income countries, Nature Communications, 10.1038/s41467-024-49890-x 44 cites.

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Climate change impacts on human culture
Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Assessing potential impacts of climate change on China’s ski season length: a data-constrained approach, Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 10.1007/s00704-024-05075-6 3 cites.

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Other

Accelerating Regime Restructuring of Ozone Sensitivity From VOC-Limited to Transitional With Heatwave Intensification, Zhang et al., Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres Open Access pdf 10.1029/2026jd046849

Revisiting the global budget of atmospheric glyoxal: updates on terrestrial and marine precursor emissions, chemistry, and impacts on atmospheric oxidation capacity, Zhang et al., Atmospheric chemistry and physics Open Access pdf 10.5194/acp-26-5123-2026

Stratospheric Ozone Depletion Causes Southern Ocean Surface Cooling, Li et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2025gl120200

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Assessing of the county-level synergy between CO2 emissions and PM2.5 pollution in Shandong Province, China, International Journal of Environmental Science and Technology, 10.1007/s13762-024-05861-9 2 cites.

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Informed opinion, nudges & major initiatives

Early-warning systems unfit for compound disasters, Alcântara & Mantovani, Discover Hazards Open Access pdf 10.1007/s44475-026-00052-1

US funding uncertainties threaten to sink key global oceanography projects, Witze, Nature 10.1038/d41586-026-02028-z

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Achieving the Kunming–Montreal global biodiversity targets for blue carbon ecosystems, Nature Reviews Earth & Environment, 10.1038/s43017-024-00566-6 60 cites.

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Book reviews

Capitalism at the limit: a political ecology of a world in crisis, Nyberg, Environmental Politics 10.1080/09644016.2026.2696665

Articles/Reports from Agencies and Non-Governmental Organizations Addressing Aspects of Climate Change

Generator Interconnection Interim Progress Report. Customer Reviews of the Seven U.S. Regional Transmission System Operators, Campbell et al., Advanced Energy United

Generator interconnection – the grid-connection process for large-scale projects like solar, wind, and energy storage – continues to be one of the biggest barriers for project developers and is preventing energy supply from keeping up with skyrocketing energy demand. While grid operators have made meaningful strides in reducing interconnection queue backlogs and improving planning processes, significant challenges remain. The authors evaluate how each grid operators is progressing since an initial 2024 assessment at fixing these bottlenecks, and outlines policy solutions to speed connection to the transmission grid. Grid operators have, with varying levels of success, cleared the backlog of projects while also preparing and implementing process changes for future review cycles. However, in many places, reforms have been slow, delays have been common, project withdrawal rates remain high, post-interconnection delays are both persistent and opaque, and fast-track workarounds have primarily benefitted costly thermal-generation projects. Project developers (interconnection customers) still generally face uncertainty with respect to both the cost and time to connect to the grid.

Climate, Peace and Security Fact Sheet: Lake Chad, Iversen et al., Stockholm International Peace Research Institute

The ongoing insecurity in the Lake Chad region—which intersects Cameroon, Chad, Niger and Nigeria—cannot be understood in isolation from climate and environmental change. Climate change-related stressors—such as increasingly variable precipitation and drought—contribute to existing tension and conflict between different communities by exacerbating scarcity of natural resources, including land, water and food. Such pressures amplify the tensions between local community members, refugees and internally displaced people and between livelihood groups such as arable farmers, fishers and pastoralists. Through its destabilizing effects on livelihoods, climate change can further increase vulnerability to recruitment by violent extremist organizations, such as Boko Haram and Islamic State–West Africa Province and other unidentified armed groups and bandit networks, that operate throughout the region.

Short-Term Energy Outlook, US. Energy Information Administration

Electricity generation. Above-average temperatures this summer contribute to a 3% increase in forecast U.S. electricity generation compared with the summer of 2025. This growth is met by increased generation from renewable fuel sources, with solar generation increasing by 19% and wind generation increasing by 10%. Generation from coal is forecast to decrease by 2%. Natural gas generates about the same amount of electricity it did last summer

Delivering Positive Energy, Energy Transition Institute, Robert Gordon University

The authors prepared the report to support decision and policy makers in shaping a coherent and pragmatic pathway for the North East of Scotland’s energy future. Drawing on the analytical framework and scenarios established in Robert Gordon University’s Striking the Balance report (2025), this regional assessment reflects the specific industrial strengths, workforce capabilities and economic dependencies of the North East. It has been developed in collaboration with, and part-funded by, Scottish Enterprise, ensuring both analytical rigor and alignment with regional economic priorities.

Integrated Resource Plan 2026 (Preliminary Final), Tennessee Valley Authority

TVA’s 2026 Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) and associated programmatic Environmental Impact Statement (EIS) evaluate the long-term demand for power in the TVA region, the resource options available for meeting that demand, and the potential economic, operating, and environmental impacts of these options. Consideration of stakeholder input is integral to TVA’s IRP process. The IRP will provide strategic direction for meeting the region’s energy needs between now and 2050, establishing a strong planning foundation and informing TVA’s next long-range financial plan.

The Price of 5 A Day?, Will Stronge and Luiz Garcia, The Autonomy Institute

Climate change is on course to make fresh fruit and vegetables unaffordable for many across the next two decades as it disrupts the production of UK’s imported and domestic produce. Heat waves are projected to add around 11% to the price of the UK’s top twenty fruit and vegetables by 2035 and around 68% by 2050 under a high emissions scenario, on top of normal inflation. Imported tropical fruit such as melons, oranges, bananas, easy peelers and grapes will rise 12% to 14% by 2035 and 80% to 93% by 2050 on these climate grounds alone. Compounded with estimated normal inflation, total average shelf prices of the overall basket of fruit and veg will reach upwards of 170% above today’s level by 2050. This means that climate-flation will be contributing 40% of total inflation across the basket of basic goods by 2035 and over 60% of it by 2050. Climate change will have gone from a junior contributor to the dominant driver of shelf-price inflation on fresh produce inside the working lifetime of someone in their thirties today. It is essential to note that the authors only included the effects of heat waves on the cost of food in the UK and uses a standard baseline for CPI inflation. They do not factor in other climate-related effects on food production, such as flooding as well as second order effects, e.g. infrastructure degradation, soil erosion, water quality and so on. Nor are geopolitical effects on inflation included which are often intertwined with climate and resource factors.

Protecting BC workers in a warming climate: Recommendations for WorkSafeBC, Susanna Klassen and Anelyse Weiler, BC Policy Solutions and the Worker Solidarity Network

British Columbia's current heat exposure regulations are outdated and insufficient to protect workers from the risks of extreme heat. Implement a straightforward trigger temperature approach. Prioritize worker involvement in developing regulations. Update protocols to reflect current research, especially for acclimatization, shade, drinking water access, rest breaks without pay disruption, sanitation and worker training. Protect workers from employer retaliation. Strengthen enforcement systems. Develop enforcement partnerships with worker groups. Enforce regulations proactively. ‘Name and shame’ bad bosses. Support improvements and coordination beyond Occupational, Health and Safety (OHS) regulation.

National Survey on Energy and the Environment, Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion

In 2025 a record number of Americans indicated that there is solid evidence of increasing temperatures on Earth, with 77% of individuals maintaining this opinion in the most recent wave of the National Survey on Energy and the Environment (NSEE). The 77% level is the highest mark recorded since the NSEE was initiated in 2008. The long-term partisan divides on the existence of evidence of climate change were once again present in 2025 with 94% of Democrats indicating that there is solid evidence of rising temperatures on the planet compared to 52% of Republicans and 80% of Americans unaffiliated with a political party. Among the majority of Americans that believe there is solid evidence of rising temperatures on Earth, most attribute the change to human activity (56%) or a combination of human activity and natural patterns (22%). Over 6 in 10 Americans agree that they have personally experienced the effects of climate change, with partisan affiliation playing a major role in this perception. While 8 out of 10 Democrats report experiencing the effects of climate change, only one third of Republicans stated that they had felt such effects. As the federal government reversed many of its previous efforts to reduce climate change in 2025, a solid majority (59%) of Americans indicated that the federal government has a great deal of responsibility to reduce global warming. About 2 out of 3 Americans agree that if the federal government fails to address climate change it is their state’s responsibility to address the problem.

How Can the World Bank Integrate Climate Action and Disability Inclusion in Transport?, Bank Information Center

Cases from Colombia and Ghana illustrate the disconnect between climate action and disability inclusion, showing how accessibility remains overlooked in the design of climate resilient and low-carbon transport systems. If the World Bank continues to treat disability inclusion and climate action as two separate issues, it risks creating or reinforcing new mobility barriers for persons with disabilities while missing opportunities to expand accessible mass transit systems that support transport decarbonization. The findings reinforce that achieving Paris-aligned transport systems requires more than reducing emissions; it also requires prioritizing transport systems that are inclusive and accessible for all.

Global trends in climate change litigation: 2026 snapshot, Joana Setzer and Catherine Higham, Global School of Sustainability, London School of Economics

The authors identify the following key trends for the period January to December 2025: in 2025, 249 new climate cases were filed, bringing the total since 1986 to more than 3,600 cases. Over three quarters of these cases have been filed since 2015, the year of the Paris Agreement. Cases have been filed across 62 countries, up from just 17 countries a decade ago. In 2025, cases were newly filed in Grenada, Guatemala, Kazakhstan, Malaysia, Singapore and Zambia. • The United States remains the jurisdiction with the highest number of cases: 151 new cases were recorded in 2025, bringing the total to 2,078.

World Risk Poll Report 2026, Gallup, Lloyd’s Register Foundation

The poll is the first and only global, nationally representative study of worry about, and harm from, the risks people face to their safety. It draws on more than 143,000 interviews conducted across 140 countries and territories throughout 2025, many of them places with little or no official data on safety and risk. The authors offer a rare view of how people experience and perceive the risks in their lives, from the everyday hazards facing millions, such as unsafe food and water or danger on the roads, to the generational and existential risk of climate change. The authors turn to that last risk in depth. Climate change is the only threat the poll frames as generational, asking people to weigh it not as it stands today but over the next 20 years. Alongside the long-running measure of personal concern, the 2025 edition introduces a new question on what people believe most others in their country think.

Climate Change and Culture: Reimagining an inclusive, sustainable and creative future, Mariana Mazzucato, University College of London Institute for Innovation and Public Purpose

Climate change is driving systems toward tipping points that require urgent action, and the cost of inaction far outweighs the cost of action. Yet the case cannot be made in the language of economics alone. Technocratic solutions cannot make a different future feel possible, desirable, or worth its cost. That is what arts and culture can do. From visual arts to music and design, they can become the social infrastructure of a just transition: how societies imagine alternative futures, build the legitimacy to pursue them, and hold together as change happens. Yet culture is still treated as peripheral to the economy: a cost to be cut rather than a precondition for transformation. The author sets out four shifts that place culture at the center of a new economy: shaping a new direction for economic growth that is inclusive, creative and sustainable; building legitimacy from the bottom up, with communities shaping climate policy through their lived experience; recognizing cultural institutions and coalitions as essential infrastructure, from national bodies to community spaces; and funding culture as investment, not expenditure, with the “creative bureaucracies” to co-create what comes next

Renewables save $750 million in electricity subsidies in Türkiye, Ça?lar Çeliköz, Ember

Record renewable generation in the first five months of 2026 drove wholesale electricity prices to historic lows in Türkiye. The decline in wholesale prices reduced the gap between market prices and the residential tariff, lowering the level of government support required for household electricity bills. As a result, the government saved $746 million in electricity subsidies during the first five months of 2026. In the first five months of 2026, electricity generation from renewable sources increased by 32% year-on-year to 87 TWh, the highest level on record. As a result, renewables accounted for 61% of total electricity generation, marking the highest share recorded in the past 26 years. In May 2026, wholesale electricity prices fell to their lowest level since the market was established in 2011. The share of renewables, which have significantly lower generation costs than fossil fuels, rose by 17 percentage points compared to May 2025 to reach 73%, helping drive wholesale electricity prices down.

Fossil fuel emissions have rapidly worsened European heatwaves in just a few decades, Keeping et al., World Weather Attribution

Just weeks after a severe heatwave that broke all-time May records, Europe is experiencing another major heatwave that is breaking June and annual records. This is particularly remarkable given that June is not historically the hottest month in Western Europe. The authors assessed to what extent human-induced climate change altered the likelihood and intensity of the extreme heat in Western Europe. The analysis focuses on the 3 hottest days and nights over the most affected area and additional analysis of the 19 capitals of the affected countries. This June 2026 heatwave occurred under a circulation pattern broadly similar to historical analogues – Southerly Flow. However, a similar circulation pattern now produces significantly hotter temperatures than it did in the mid-20th century because the climate baseline has warmed. This summer shows that at 1.4°C of global warming, extreme heat is already reaching the limits of our societies’ ability to cope. The analysis shows that intense heat is increasing rapidly even in living memory, with such events tens to hundreds of times more likely since only 2003 and virtually impossible just 50 years ago.

Valuing the Future. Pennsylvania’s Shrinking Economic Fossil Fuel Footprint Leaves a Widening Fiscal Gap, Cohn et al., Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis

Pennsylvania’s budget deficit will widen as state spending outpaces tax receipt growth. The largest economic contributions from the state’s coal industry, its petrochemical sector, and its natural gas business are several years in the rearview. Tax credits that are 26 times the size of effective tax rates on the fossil fuel industry are adding fuel to the fire. The state’s tax policy toward natural resource extraction should be revised to align industry contributions with policy goals.

Enquête Sur la Surexposition des Quartiers Populaires aux Vagues de Chaleur (Survey on the Overexposure of Working-Class Neighborhoods Heat Waves), Fondation Pour le Logement des Défavorisés (Foundation for the Housing of the Disadvantaged)

The authors analyze the latest trends and data on living in kettle housing (uninsulated apartments) by examining summer fuel poverty in working-class neighborhoods. They present recommendations on how people can move out of these types of apartments.

Eye on the Market, Michael Cembalest, JP. Morgan Asset and Wealth Management

The author looks at energy arguments, battles and debates: the affect of data centers on power prices, the cost of solar plus storage as baseload power, the “primary energy fallacy” that ignores waste heat, the true cost of small modular reactors, Germany’s decision to shut down nuclear, China’s dominance of renewable supply chains, solid oxide fuel cells as turbine alternatives, the materiality of demand response, staffing cuts at the EIA, the hype around geothermal and geologic hydrogen, the misplaced fascination with small country energy transitions, satellite vs factor-based oil & gas basin methane emissions, the mostly profitless EV industry, xAI mobile gas plant permits, negligible progress on carbon capture and renewable fuels.

Let The Sun In: Clean Energy Is The Cheapest Way To Meet Rising Demand, Pierpont, Energy Innovation Policy and Technology

To better understand how to best meet growing demand in today’s changing electricity landscape, the authors conducted a national analysis examining two futures for meeting electricity demand through 2030: one where the U.S. doubles down on fossil fuels as demand accelerates, consistent with the current federal policy approach, and another where America takes full advantage of clean energy to meet growing electricity use. They found that meeting America’s expected demand growth with a fossil fuel-heavy approach will add $29.7 billion annually to customer bills by 2030. However, the clean energy scenario reduces overall costs to meet load growth by $5.1 billion annually that year compared to a high fossil scenario, a savings of 17 percent. These costs will be passed through to both existing and new customers, and policymakers in many states are working to ensure that large, rapidly growing customers like data centers pay their fair share. This means the cost of meeting America’s expected electricity demand growth will be significant, but doing it with a clean energy portfolio reduces the overall system cost.

States at the wheel: A state policy scorecard on electric vehicle readiness, Shriya Methkupally and Mark Muro, Brookings

State policies promoting electric vehicles (EVs) lie at the center of the action in the wake of federal policy retrenchment, but they vary widely. The authors benchmark states’ EV policy implementation, with scores ranging from zero to 11 out of a possible 13. The highest scores are clustered in the Northeast, West Coast, and a handful of other states. Six states—mostly in the South—have no EV policies in place, scoring zero across all indicators. High-scoring states use a combination of policies across consumer incentives, charging infrastructure, environmental standards, market access laws, and public procurement. Charging infrastructure and procurement are the most consistent gaps among mid-scoring states. Ten of the 12 mid-tier states score minimally on charging infrastructure policies and near zero on EV fleet procurement targets. The scorecard points to different next steps for different types of states. High-scoring states should prioritize preserving adopted policies; mid-tier states should focus on filling gaps; and low-scoring states should prioritize low-cost entry points.

Improving Future U.S. Drought Assessment, Overpeak et al., National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine

The authors examine how drought assessment can better account for nonstationarity, or shifts in drought conditions and behaviors over time. The authors explore how climate variability and change, along with evolving water and land management practices, are altering drought characteristics and affecting the usefulness of traditional assessment approaches that rely on historical baselines. The authors propose a framework for incorporating nonstationarity into drought assessment to support decision-making and future resilience. They outline a two-pronged approach that addresses both short-term operational needs, such as drought monitoring and early warning, and long-term planning for water management, infrastructure, and adaptation. The authors also highlight opportunities to strengthen drought indicators, affect data, and scientific understanding of drought dynamics to support more effective drought assessment across the United States.

Home Buying in the Energy Transition, The Smart Energy Consumer Collaborative

The authors investigated the influence of energy efficiency and clean energy technologies on the home-buying process. What information about the home’s energy efficiency is readily available? How important would this information be for consumers as they evaluate potential homes? Are realtors able to promote efficiency in listings and tours, and to what degree are they able to educate consumers who may be looking for answers about energy efficiency? The research uncovered multiple opportunities for improvement throughout the home-buying process – opportunities for creating win-win-win outcomes for all participants.

Transition Minerals Tracker; Key findings 2026, Gómez et al., Business and Human Rights Tracker

The solutions to the climate crisis are today well known: full fossil fuel phase-out and swift deployment of wind and solar capacity, coupled with general electrification. This critical new energy expansion is helping to fuel a global mining boom for copper, cobalt and the other transition minerals – accelerated by growing competition and pressure from other expanding sectors such as tech and defense. But increasing mineral demand is also fueling environmental and human rights risks. New data reveals a dramatic surge in human rights abuses linked to the mines supplying materials for the global energy transition. The authors document the human rights implications of mining operations for key minerals used in renewable energy, electrification, and battery technologies, since 2010. These allegations are closely linked to rising social conflict around mining operations and should raise concern across the renewable energy value chain, from mining companies to end-users of their products.

2026 State of Reliability. Assessment Overview of 2025 Bulk Power System Performance, The North American Electric Reliability Corporation

The report is a high-level summary of the most important and actionable topics affecting the Bulk Power Supply (BPS) and how these are being addressed along with a comprehensive annual analytical review of BPS reliability for the 2025 calendar year. The analysis provides an unbiased, data-driven look at the BPS’s reliability, identifying ongoing challenges, and informing future looking assessments. This overview seeks to inform regulators, policymakers, and industry leaders of the most significant reliability risks facing the BPS. About New Research

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This video includes personal musings and conclusions of the creator and climate scientist Dr. Adam Levy. It is presented to our readers as an informed perspective. Please see video description for references (if any).

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El Niño has begun, and there's high risk that it could be a Super El Niño: bringing with it extreme weather, like heatwaves, droughts and downpours. And the world is bracing itself for record smashing temperatures. But is this natural swing in the climate partly down to climate change? Is climate change shifting the balance of El Niño? Either way, El Niño and climate change are combining to threaten us like we've never seen before.

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This is a re-post from Yale Climate Connections by Samantha Harrington

Sarina Virmani lives in Loudoun County, Virginia, which is home to over 200 data centers and colloquially known as Data Center Alley. As a high school student, Virmani published a paper on the environmental impact of data centers in the American Journal of Student Research. She also organizes for more transparency and regulation in the industry.

“A lot of people think that artificial intelligence is something that’s invisible, but it’s not. It lives in these massive buildings,” she said. 

Data centers aren’t new in Loudoun County, but the explosive growth of AI chatbots like OpenAI’s ChatGPT, Anthropic’s Claude, and Google’s Gemini is driving demand for more. The environmental impact of all of those data centers can be tricky to parse, but there are a few things we know for certain: Data centers are extending the life of aging oil, gas, and coal infrastructure, they are spurring the building of new fossil fuel infrastructure, and they can pose risks to water resources. 

What is AI, and why does it need so much electricity?

To some extent, AI technology is as old as the computer. The term artificial intelligence was popularized in the 1950s, and as computer technology has become increasingly affordable and powerful, machine learning and algorithms have become part of our economy and everyday lives. The Instagram algorithm, for example, just turned 10 years old.

The current iteration of AI began in November 2022, when OpenAI publicly launched ChatGPT. ChatGPT’s secret weapon was access to a massive amount of data — some of which was used without copyright permission — and the computer power and architecture to process it and train models. This process is enormously energy-intensive. In a Q&A published by the University of Washington, AI scholar Sajjad Moazen said that training one single large language model like ChatGPT-3 can use up to 10 gigawatt-hours of power. 

“This is on average roughly equivalent to the yearly electricity consumption of over 1,000 U.S. households,” he said. 

A worker prepares a plot of land for an AI data center in the shadow of a retired power plant being refurbished to provide electricity for the facility. (AP Photo/Charlie Riedel)

How much climate-changing pollution does generative AI create? 

The training and deployment of large AI tools requires so much power that it is leading to a boom in new fossil fuel infrastructure and extending the life of aging power plants. 

“I like to call them zombie power plants,” said Quentin Good, coauthor of a report on data centers by the Frontier Group. “They should be dead, but we keep reviving them, and they’re walking around like zombies polluting our communities.”

The report found that the retirements of at least 15 fossil fuel plants have been postponed to meet increased energy demand. Those 15 plants alone emit more climate-changing pollution than the entire state of Massachusetts. Utilities, grid operators, and the federal government have all cited data center energy demand as a reason to keep aging fossil fuel infrastructure online. In some cases, power plant retirements have been pushed back by more than a decade. 

In the case of one coal plant in southern Virginia, which was set to phase out in 2025, operations have been extended indefinitely. In 2023, the plant emitted more pollution than over 65,000 typical gasoline-powered vehicles produce in a year.

“[The U.S. had] been planning to get pretty much all of our coal plants offline by 2040,” Good said. “Those plans are basically out the window now.”

On top of that is all of the new fossil fuel infrastructure being built to meet AI demand. Wired writer Molly Taft reported in April 2026 that new gas plants linked to just 11 U.S. data center campuses could generate more climate-changing pollution than the entire country of Morocco emitted in 2024. 

And some data centers use highly polluting diesel generators as backup when there’s too much demand on the electric grid. Good said that although restrictions limit how much a company can run diesel generators, many states are considering exceptions for data centers. 

How much water does AI use, really?

Details around data center water use are murky, and the environmental impact is at least partially dependent on where data centers are located. Good has found that although data centers do need large volumes of water to cool down servers, data center water use is not a crisis in Virginia — though that could change in times of drought. 

Data centers in water-stressed areas, like arid parts of Colorado, pose larger water-use concerns. Good noted that the highest data center water demand comes during the hottest, driest months, which is when river flows tend to be lowest and other water needs also peak.

Other water-related issues arise when water is discharged after it has been used in a data center. Good said the environmental impacts of this process and the effects on local waterways and wildlife are an underresearched area that he hopes to study more. 

“When they discharge the water that they used to cool the servers, that water has elevated levels of sodium and other nasty stuff in it,” Good said. “And it’s really hot, so that could impact fish and other animals in streams and rivers.”

What can you do to reduce AI’s climate-changing pollution?

Like most climate solutions, the fight against polluting AI systems happens at all levels, including through regulation, community organizing, and limiting individual use of energy-intensive tools. 

The Trump administration has tended to favor accelerating permits for data centers, and the president signed an executive order in late 2025 attempting to limit states’ ability to regulate their construction and energy use. Yet NPR has reported that there is bipartisan support for AI industry regulations in Congress and in state governments.

People attend a planning meeting to comment on a proposed data center in Nashville, Tennessee. (AP Photo/George Walker IV)

At a local scale, residents can attend public meetings and hearings about data centers and ask questions. Well-organized neighbors across the U.S. have shut down projects, passed local moratoriums, and limited electricity rate hikes. 

On the individual level, people can think twice before using a generative AI tool. By reducing unnecessary use of AI tools and encouraging others to do the same, people can reduce demand for these tools and the enormous amounts of energy they require.

A listing of 28 news and opinion articles we found interesting and shared on social media during the past week: Sun, June 21, 2026 thru Sat, June 27, 2026. Stories we promoted this week, by category:

Climate Change Impacts (10 articles)

• Efforts to save kelp forests from ocean warming are ramping up Healthy kelp forests need cool, nutrient-rich seawater to survive but as ocean waters warm, kelp can no longer inhabit parts of their former range, resulting in a rapidly escalating crisis for ocean ecosystems. Grist, Richard Schiffman, Jun 21, 2026.
• Arctic marine heat waves surge since 1980s, with record event lasting 480 days The available data show that the duration, intensity and frequency of marine heat waves in the Arctic have increased significantly since the 1980s. Phys.org, Roland Koch, Jun 21, 2026.
• The water is rising in Chesapeake Bay. Can Tangier Island be saved? A mayor changes his mind about why his island is vanishing. Inside Climate News, Charles Paullin, Jun 22, 2026.
• Heat stress exposure climbed from 16% to 22% worldwide over 50 years, study shows The number of people exposed to dangerous heat stress worldwide has risen sharply over the past half-century, propelled by climate change. Phys.org, Daniel Lawler, Jun 22, 2026.
• 40°C is just the beginning. DrGilbz on Youtube, Ella Gilbert, June 22, 2026.
• Extreme heat cancels climate change event on adapting to extreme heat Extreme heat in London has led to the cancellation of a climate event on the topic of extreme heat. The Independent News, Maira Butt, Jun 23, 2026.
• Europe`s Heat Has Scientists Asking: How Much Hotter Can It Get? Records are being broken for the second time in a month, leading scientists to probe the upper limits of what the warming climate can dish out. NYT, Raymond Zhong, Jun 23, 2026.
• How climate change is influencing Europe's record-breaking heat wave NPR's Michel Martin speaks with Jennifer Francis, senior scientist at the Massachusetts-based Woodwell Climate Research Center, about the impact of Europe's heat wave and its links to climate change. NPR, Michel Martin, Jun 24, 2026.
• Why Is Europe the Fastest-Warming Continent The burning of fossil fuels is raising temperatures worldwide, but local factors, on land and at sea, determine which regions warm most rapidly. NYT, Raymond Zhong, Jun 24, 2026.
• Texas` refusal to plan for climate change created a crisis in Corpus Christi Stubbornly unrealistic assessments of the region’s reservoir system turned this year’s drought conditions into an emergency. Inside Climate News, Dylan Baddour, Jun 25, 2026.

Climate Education and Communication (5 articles)

• Climate fiction envisions the future of hurricanes and sea level rise Three excellent cli-fi novels envision a plausible future where sea level rise and climate change-intensified hurricanes cause massive economic disruption in the U.S. Yale Climate Connections, Jeff Masters, Jun 19, 2026.
• Cooking up the Climate Stripes, with Ed Hawkins Skeptical Science, Baerbel Winkler, Jun 20, 2026.
• New Publication: Identifying Flawed Reasoning in Contrarian Claims about Climate Change Skeptical Science, Baerbel Winkler & John Cook, Jun 23, 2026.
• True at the same time 'We can sometimes fall into the trap of framing climate as a binary: catastrophe or complacency, despair or denial. Reality is messier.'' Climate Trunk, John Lang, Jun 23, 2026.
• Former NOAA Employees Revive Climate.gov Web Site The database of federal global warming research recreates a website that was closed amid the administration’s broad retreat from climate science. NYT, Quinn Glabicki, Jun 23, 2026.

Climate Science and Research (5 articles)

• National Science Foundation halts plans to dismantle oceans observatory project The NSF issued a statement saying that it “appreciates the concerns raised by the range of stakeholders” and would halt efforts to remove or disable equipment. It also said it will redeploy equipment that already was removed from the water and convene an expert panel to determine the future of the network. AP News, AP News , Jun 22, 2026.
• Introducing Project Cosmos: Carbon Brief`s `universe` of climate science Carbon Brief, Carbon Brief Staff, Jun 22, 2026.
• Recreating the legendary heatwave summer of 1976 in today’s climate Climate Lab Book, Ed Hawkins, June 24, 2026.
• Beyond Denial: How Oil Execs Shaped a Landmark Climate Study How British Petroleum helped to foster a major climate solutions myth, allowing the fossil fuel industry to monetize more petroleum over the course of decades. ProPublica, Katie Worth, Jun 25, 2026.
• Feedbacks upon feedbacks: Rock weathering and the climate Rock weathering may release or draw down carbon dioxide—it depends on the rock. Ars Technica, Howard Lee, Jun 26, 2026.

Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation (2 articles)

• Getting rid of an old fridge? Here's what you need to know Australian Broadcasting Corporation, Amy Briggs, Jun 19, 2026.
• Experts: Why carbon removal needs a `major scale up` to return warming to 1.5C Last week, more than 260 researchers convened in Milan to discuss the opportunities, challenges and risks involved in scaling “carbon dioxide removal” (CDR) to help curb climate change. Carbon Brief, Cecilia Keating, Jun 19, 2026.

Climate Policy and Politics (2 articles)

• Is It Warm Out There? The Atlantic, Joshua Partlow, Jun 23, 2026.
• Climate leadership is contagious, but so is retreat Op-ed suggests that shaping the safety and health of our future based on today's price for gasoline is poor political leadership. New Statesman, Mary Robinson, Jun 25, 2026.

Miscellaneous (2 articles)

• 2026 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #25 A listing of 28 news and opinion articles we found interesting and shared on social media during the past week: Sun, June 14, 2026 thru Sat, June 20, 2026. Skeptical Science, Bärbel Winkler & Doug Bostrom, Jun 21, 2026.
• How US renewable-energy growth persists despite federal policy uncertainty Despite recent shifts in federal energy policies, our analysis shows that the US transition to renewable energy is continuing. Carbon Brief, Modi et al., Jun 25, 2026.

Public Misunderstandings about Climate Science (1 article)

• The gas industry is sneaking into kids` science classes The Switch Energy Alliance markets its free classroom materials as “objective.” But they are backed by the fossil fuel industry, a HEATED investigation shows. HEATED, Marin Scotten, Jun 24, 2026.

Public Misunderstandings about Climate Solutions (1 article)

• Where does climate action go from here? A conversation with climate scientist Dr. Katharine Hayhoe Youtube, Project Drawdown, June 23, 2026.

If you happen upon high quality climate-science and/or climate-myth busting articles from reliable sources while surfing the web, please feel free to submit them via this Google form so that we may share them widely. Thanks!

Open access notables

Paleorecords inform the limits of Indo-Pacific coral reef survival under accelerating sea-level rise, Ramos et al., Nature Communications

Here, we compile and evaluate standardized Holocene vertical accretion rates and coral community structure data from 288 Indo-Pacific paleo-reef records across 92 sites to examine intrinsic and extrinsic drivers of accretion. Our findings reveal that reef formation and long-term accretion are determined by a complex interplay between sea-level change and eco-geomorphological factors. Maximum vertical accretion rates indicate that many Indo-Pacific reefs do not have the capacity to keep pace with projected rates of sea-level rise, particularly under high-emissions scenario (76% of reef sites). Critical thresholds suggest that reef accretion is very unlikely (>90% probability) to be maintained when relative sea-level rise rate exceeds 5.3 mm yr−1, a scenario likely to be surpassed within ~35 years. Without substantial reductions in global emissions, many coral reefs face increasing risk of submergence, structural collapse and loss of critical ecosystem services, especially where modern coral communities differ from predominantly competitive Holocene assemblages and are increasingly dominated by weedy taxa.

Wild Ruminants as a Natural Source of Methane: A Global Gridded Emissions Estimate, Yazbeck et al., Journal of Geophysical Research Biogeosciences

Methane (CH4) is a greenhouse gas that contributes to climate change, but its global estimates are still uncertain. While livestock are known to produce large amounts of methane, wild animals also emit methane during digestion. In this study, we estimate methane emissions from wild ruminants worldwide using a new spatial data set. We combine global information on species distributions and population sizes with a relationship that links body mass to methane emissions and estimate emissions across the globe. Our results suggest that wild ruminants emit about 2.95 Tg (Tg) of methane per year globally. This estimate is lower than values derived from the IPCC Tier 1 method (∼15 Tg yr−1) but is consistent with previous body-mass-based studies. Although uncertainties remain, mainly in population data and seasonal variability, this work provides a transparent baseline estimate of methane emissions from wild ruminants that can support global methane budget studies and atmospheric modeling.

Reversal of the ITCZ Shift During the Satellite Era, Shrestha et al., Geophysical Research Letters

Roughly one-third of the global precipitation originates from the deep tropics where the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) plays a central role. Even small shifts in this narrow band of intense rainfall can drive major regional hydrological changes both at seasonal and longer timescales, as exemplified by the prolonged Sahel drought of the late 20th century. Studies have attributed the southward migration of the ITCZ during the late 20th century to a larger concentration of aerosols over the Northern Hemisphere (NH) at the time. A growing record of observations now reveal a northward migration of the ITCZ over the past four decades that is, a reversal in the ITCZ shift trend. In this study, we find that both a reduction in aerosols over the NH along with a global increase in greenhouse gases have contributed to this recent reversal in the ITCZ shift. The northward displacement of the ITCZ over the satellite era aligns with observed hemispheric asymmetries in Earth's albedo trends and reinforces model projections of further northward shifts in the decades ahead.

Modelling the effect of awareness on the spread of misinformation, Caceres et al., Royal Society Open Science

We propose a model showing that taking an active role in stopping the spread of misinformation reduces its impact. To do this, we generalize the Maki–Thompson rumour model, where the population consists of spreaders, ignorants and stiflers. Spreaders try to spread the rumour through directed contacts. When a spreader contacts an ignorant, the ignorant becomes a spreader; otherwise, the initiating spreader becomes a stifler. In finite populations, the process reaches an equilibrium in which every individual is either a stifler or an ignorant. Our generalization adds a class of aware individuals who recognize the information as false. In a passive role, an aware individual exposed to misinformation simply avoids spreading it. In an active role, the aware individual not only refuses to propagate the rumour but also stops the spread by the contacting person. For homogeneously mixed populations, we prove limit theorems for the final proportion of ignorants as a function of the proportion of aware individuals and the probability of acting actively or passively. For populations represented by random networks, we perform computational analyses to compare both scenarios and find that propagation decreases sharply in active environments, with the largest differences occurring when awareness is about 30–40%.

From this week's government/NGO section:

Lethal humidity and the systemic risks of climate change, Robert Glasser, Australian Strategic Policy Institute

The author uses ‘lethal humidity’ as a focal concept, but focuses primarily on the broad category of extreme humid-heat events that are increasingly approaching, and in some regions exceeding, that threshold. It focuses on the rising threat posed by extreme humid heat, both as a stand-alone climate hazard and as part of a more complex pattern of interconnected hazards intensified by climate change. He highlights the accelerating effects of extreme humid-heat occurrences and how they will both amplify and be amplified by other climate-related events happening simultaneously or consecutively. The main objective is to show that those effects are not isolated; they cascade through societies, magnified by other climate hazards, such as storms and flooding.

Renewables shield Spanish consumers from elevated gas prices, Chris Rosslowe, Ember

As Europe is hit by its second gas price shock in five years, Spain demonstrates the ability of renewable energy to shield against volatile costs. Spain has pursued a strategic expansion of renewable energy since before the gas crisis of 2021-2024, and reinforced this approach following the Iberian blackout of April 2025. This strategy is proving its worth as Spanish consumers continue to benefit from low-cost electricity despite elevated gas prices. Building on this, Spain’s response to the 2026 energy crisis recognizes the importance of electrification to drive deeper reductions in fossil import dependency. 115 articles in 63 journals by 704 contributing authors

Physical science of climate change, effects

Episodic Slowdown of Global Warming by a Multiyear La Niña, Iwakiri & Kohyama, Journal of Climate 10.1175/jcli-d-25-0686.1

Limited impact of Greenland meltwater on abruptness and reversibility of future Atlantic overturning changes, Mehling et al., Science Advances Open Access pdf 10.1126/sciadv.aed2633

Long-Term Trends and Variability in Arctic Mixed Layer Depth, Eisner et al., Journal of Geophysical Research Oceans Open Access 10.1029/2026jc024063

Multi-scale drivers of compound day-night heatwaves in Shanghai, China (1873–2023): The role of asymmetric warming, oceanic modes, and urbanization, LIANG et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2026.04.012

North Atlantic Sea Surface Temperature Variability: Impacts, Mechanisms, and Challenges, He et al., Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews Climate Change Open Access 10.1002/wcc.70077

Physical processes leading to extreme day-to-day temperature change – Part 2: Future climate change, Hamal & Pfahl, Refubium (Universitätsbibliothek der Freien Universität Berlin) Open Access pmh:oai:refubium.fu-berlin.de:fub188/52806

Recent Weakening of the Global Radiative Feedback, Loon et al., ArXiv.org Open Access pdf pmh:oai:arXiv.org:2603.12515

Reversal of the ITCZ Shift During the Satellite Era, Shrestha et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2026gl123402

The Nonmonotonicity of Moist-Adiabatic Warming, Miyawaki, Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences 10.1175/jas-d-25-0099.1

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Radiative Heating of High-Level Clouds and Its Impacts on Climate, Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres, 10.1029/2024jd040850 12 cites.

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Observations of climate change, effects

Air temperature trend analysis for the Cananéia–Iguape Coastal System (São Paulo State, Brazil), 1981–2022, using reanalysis products evaluated against surface observations, Baratto et al., Dynamics of Atmospheres and Oceans Open Access 10.1016/j.dynatmoce.2026.101676

Anthropogenic and natural drivers of the Earth's radiation budget changes in South and Southeast Asia (2001?2022), CHEN et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2026.06.009

Disentangling internal and external impacts on increasing compound heat waves over the Yangtze River valley, Xie et al., Weather and Climate Extremes Open Access 10.1016/j.wace.2026.100927

Emergence of Subsurface Warming in the Southern Ocean Gateway Between New Zealand and Antarctica, Ferola et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2025gl121465

Extreme sea level changes along the China coast under rising sea levels in 1980–2024, Wang et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2026.06.013

Heatwaves enable wildfire activity in the western United States, Kalashnikov et al., Science Advances Open Access 10.1126/sciadv.aea1277

Projections Versus Observations of Extreme Temperatures Over Land During 2006–2023, Qin et al., Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres 10.1029/2025jd046261

Spatial and Temporal Dynamics of Drought, Heatwave and Compound Extremes in Saudi Arabia From 1984 to 2023: A Comprehensive Analysis, Kamruzzaman, International Journal of Climatology 10.1002/joc.70404

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Rapid summer Russian Arctic sea-ice loss enhances the risk of recent Eastern Siberian wildfires, Nature Communications, 10.1038/s41467-024-49677-0 36 cites.

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Instrumentation & observational methods of climate change, effects

Evaluation of ERA5, ERA5-Land, CERRA and NEWA datasets in reproducing observed near-surface wind speeds across Spain, Plaza-Martín et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2026.04.011

Observed Trends and Variability in the Water Masses of the Southern Ocean, Wyatt et al., Journal of Geophysical Research Oceans 10.1029/2025jc023852

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
CODC-v1: a quality-controlled and bias-corrected ocean temperature profile database from 1940–2023, Scientific Data, 10.1038/s41597-024-03494-8 20 cites.

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Modeling, simulation & projection of climate change, effects

Escalating Hydroclimatic Extremes and Volatility in the UK Under 2°C and 4°C Warming, He et al., Earth s Future Open Access 10.1029/2025ef007156

High-Resolution Climate Simulations Over the Eastern Mediterranean Black Sea Region Using the Pseudo-Global Warming Method With a CMIP6 Ensemble: Wind Energy Resource Availability, Cetin et al., Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres Open Access 10.1029/2025jd045816

Projected Changes in Extratropical Cyclone Activity Under Climate Change Scenario in East Asia, Byun et al., Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres 10.1029/2025jd045725

Reduced Future North Atlantic Eddy-Driven Jet Variability in High-Resolution, Fully Coupled Global Climate Models, Baker et al., Journal of Climate Open Access 10.1175/jcli-d-25-0418.1

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Changes in the Typhoon Intensity under a Warming Climate: A Numerical Study of Typhoon Mangkhut, Journal of Climate, 10.1175/jcli-d-23-0567.1 10 cites.

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Advancement of climate & climate effects modeling, simulation & projection

Bias correction of CMIP6 models using quantile delta mapping for projecting future IDF curves: case study of the hyderabad metropolitan region, Saravanan & Ji, Theoretical and Applied Climatology 10.1007/s00704-026-06366-w

Development of a PCA-based climatic similarity index to enhance weather file selection criteria for climate-based daylight modelling simulations in tropical climates, Aw et al., Scientific Reports Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41598-026-58112-x

Machine Learning Eliminates Reanalysis Warm Bias and Reveals Weaker Winter Surface Cooling Over Arctic Sea Ice, Hossain et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2025gl121289

Projections Versus Observations of Extreme Temperatures Over Land During 2006–2023, Qin et al., Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres 10.1029/2025jd046261

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Incorporation of RCM-simulated spatial details into climate change projections derived from global climate models, Climate Dynamics, 10.1007/s00382-024-07258-3 7 cites.

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Cryosphere & climate change

Aufeis in a warming world: Global patterns, processes, and environmental implications, Li et al., Earth-Science Reviews 10.1016/j.earscirev.2026.105590

Chaotic fluctuations in Greenland ice streams limit predictability of ice sheet collapse, Kypke et al., Earth System Dynamics Open Access 10.5194/esd-17-769-2026

Past, present and future Greenland Ice Sheet surface melt, 1500–2200 CE, Hanna et al., Nature Reviews Earth & Environment 10.1038/s43017-026-00800-3

Understanding slow glacier flow under climate change: A case study on Vernagtferner, Austria, Dobler et al., cryosphere Open Access 10.5194/tc-20-2531-2026

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Tipping point in ice-sheet grounding-zone melting due to ocean water intrusion, Nature Geoscience, 10.1038/s41561-024-01465-7 28 cites.

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Sea level & climate change

Emergent decadal predictability in Antarctic contribution to sea-level rise, McCormack et al., Nature 10.1038/s41586-026-10614-4

Extreme sea level changes along the China coast under rising sea levels in 1980–2024, Wang et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2026.06.013

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
A framework for physically consistent storylines of UK future mean sea level rise, Climatic Change, 10.1007/s10584-024-03734-1 9 cites.

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Paleoclimate & paleogeochemistry

Commentary: Reframing Massive Carbon Input During the PETM and a Grand 66 Million Year Geoscience Puzzle, Dickens, Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2026gl124011

Paleorecords inform the limits of Indo-Pacific coral reef survival under accelerating sea-level rise, Ramos et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-026-74612-w

Rapid warming in South America during the last deglaciation, Ampuero et al., Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-026-74093-x

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Controlling factors for the global meridional overturning circulation: A lesson from the Paleozoic, Science Advances, 10.1126/sciadv.adm7813 8 cites.

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Biology & climate change, related geochemistry

Conspecific density and reproductive trade-offs govern population response to climate in a clonal wildflower, Loesberg & Williams, Journal of Ecology Open Access 10.1111/1365-2745.70376

Eastern and southern Asian gymnosperms are doomed to extinction under climate change, Tang et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-026-03759-7

Extreme weather effects on marine predator breeding outcomes in a global climate change hotspot, Sojitra et al., Science Advances Open Access pdf 10.1126/sciadv.aea3220

On the collapse of an endemic reef-building coral species, Morais et al., Marine Environmental Research Open Access 10.1016/j.marenvres.2026.108201

Projected Impacts of Climate Change on Interactions Between Plants and Avian Frugivores Across the Americas, Rabeau et al., Global Ecology and Biogeography Open Access pdf 10.1111/geb.70271

Projecting biodiversity change to support climate-smart ocean planning in Portugal, julien et al., npj Ocean Sustainability Open Access 10.1038/s44183-026-00216-y

Significant Coastal Dune Loss Challenges California's Climate Resilience and Biodiversity Goals, Baxter et al., Earth s Future Open Access 10.1029/2025ef007790

Temperate local extinctions from climate change are outpacing tropical extinctions, Murali et al., Nature Climate Change 10.1038/s41558-026-02669-y

Tropical climate modes control strength and distribution of thermal stress mitigation in a coral reef refugia, Camelia et al., Scientific Reports Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41598-026-52941-6

Variation in bud set phenology, autumn frost tolerance and non-structural carbohydrates among white spruce seed sources on climate-contrasted test sites: implications for assisted migration, Analy et al., Frontiers in Forests and Global Change Open Access pdf 10.3389/ffgc.2026.1753580

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Cumulative risk of future bleaching for the world’s coral reefs, Science Advances, 10.1126/sciadv.adn9660 75 cites.

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GHG sources & sinks, flux, related geochemistry

Aerosol source apportionment modelling using a coupled regional–urban scale system, Caspel et al., Atmospheric chemistry and physics Open Access pdf 10.5194/acp-26-8575-2026

Cross-stressor resilience of soil microbial growth and carbon metabolism under climate change, Li et al., Ecology Open Access 10.1002/ecy.70439

Dissecting mesopelagic particulate organic carbon budgets in the North Atlantic: A mechanistic diagnosis and evaluation of PISCESv2_RC, Orihuela-García et al., Biogeosciences Open Access 10.5194/bg-23-4083-2026

Dissimilar roles of aerosols, nitrogen deposition and ozone on the terrestrial carbon sink in China during 2010–2020, Xie et al., Atmospheric chemistry and physics Open Access 10.5194/acp-26-5925-2026

Divergent responses of soil organic and inorganic carbon driven by land use during coastal reclamation, Zhai et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-026-74876-2

Efficient preservation of old methane-derived organic carbon in deep-sea surface sediments, Bao et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-026-74250-2

Greenhouse gas emissions from freshwater wetlands of the Doon Valley, Northwest Himalaya, India, Baiswar et al., Scientific Reports Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41598-026-50605-z

Hotspots of Arctic and sub-Arctic marine sediment organic carbon are dominated by the Baltic, Barents and Chukchi Seas, Langley et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-026-03720-8

Long-term multiple global change interactions amplify belowground carbon allocation, Chen et al., Nature Climate Change 10.1038/s41558-026-02678-x

National pathways of land-use CO? emissions in the 21st century, Zhang et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-026-74836-w

Quantifying and Mapping Regional C, N and P Stocks From Temperate Fens, Bogs, and Forested Peatlands Using Detailed Peat Bathymetry, Arsenault et al., Journal of Geophysical Research Biogeosciences Open Access 10.1029/2025jg009407

Role of Future Climate Change, Air Pollution Control and Methane Mitigation in Driving Hydroxyl Radical (OH) and Methane Lifetime, Chua, Open MIND Open Access pmh:10.5281/zenodo.18894153

Wild Ruminants as a Natural Source of Methane: A Global Gridded Emissions Estimate, Yazbeck et al., Journal of Geophysical Research Biogeosciences Open Access 10.1029/2026jg009855

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Global turnover of soil mineral-associated and particulate organic carbon, Nature Communications, 10.1038/s41467-024-49743-7 184 cites.

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CO2 capture, sequestration science & engineering

Geomechanical characterization of reservoir and caprock integrity for CO2 sequestration assessment in the Jaisalmer Basin, India, Hembram et al., Journal of Earth System Science 10.1007/s12040-026-02797-1

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
The effects of policy uncertainty and risk aversion on carbon capture, utilization, and storage investments, Energy Policy, 10.1016/j.enpol.2024.114212 12 cites.

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Decarbonization

Sector-specific carbon emission trajectories in Beijing (2025–2035): a STIRPAT–LEAP coupled framework for identifying optimal decarbonization pathways, ZHANG et al., Frontiers in Environmental Science Open Access pdf 10.3389/fenvs.2026.1834206

Strong plans, weak levers: Identifying institutional limits to reducing car dependence in Finland, Lyly & Ghorbani, Energy Research & Social Science Open Access 10.1016/j.erss.2026.104737

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Worldwide greenhouse gas emissions of green hydrogen production and transport, Nature Energy, 10.1038/s41560-024-01563-1 86 cites.

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Geoengineering climate

Compensation of Ocean Latent Heat to Stratospheric Aerosol Injection Induced Cooling and Its Comparison to Volcanic Aerosols, Gao et al., Journal of Geophysical Research Oceans 10.1029/2025jc023882

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Diminished efficacy of regional marine cloud brightening in a warmer world, Nature Climate Change, 10.1038/s41558-024-02046-7 20 cites.

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Black carbon

Investigation of Black Carbon characteristics over the Arctic: Contribution of fossil fuel and biomass burning, Kumar & Srivastava, Atmospheric Environment 10.1016/j.atmosenv.2026.122188

Aerosols

Insights into spring dust aerosol trends over North China from CMIP6 historical simulations and multi-source observations, Sha et al., Atmospheric Research 10.1016/j.atmosres.2026.109163

Reversal of the ITCZ Shift During the Satellite Era, Shrestha et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2026gl123402

Substantial Diel Changes of Cloud Adjustments to Aerosols in Ship-Tracks, Yuan et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2026gl121979

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Why does stratospheric aerosol forcing strongly cool the warm pool?, Atmospheric chemistry and physics, 10.5194/acp-24-7203-2024 3 cites.

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Climate change communications & cognition

Climate advocacy and activism by scientists: A narrative review, Finnerty et al., PLOS Climate Open Access pdf 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000942

Crowdsourcing Activities for Climate Change Mitigation—Implementation, Opportunities, and Prospects, Wechsler et al., Weather Climate and Society 10.1175/wcas-d-25-0086.1

Disagreement among friends: a collaboration-based framework for reducing polarization on climate change, McGrath, Environmental Politics 10.1080/09644016.2026.2683947

Governmental efficacy is a key psychological pathway to climate action, Goldwert et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-026-03743-1

Green Is the New Bad Libertarian Populism and the Edgar Friendly Style of Climate Denial, Bellolio, Environmental Politics 10.1080/09644016.2026.2691473

Identifying Flawed Reasoning in Contrarian Claims about Climate Change, Flack et al., Environmental Communication 10.1080/17524032.2026.2663476

Modelling the effect of awareness on the spread of misinformation, Caceres et al., Royal Society Open Science Open Access 10.1098/rsos.252404

The relationship between future anxiety and global climate change awareness among physiotherapy students in Turkey: a cross-sectional study, Akaras & Sözlü, BMC Medical Education Open Access 10.1186/s12909-026-09696-5

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Widespread misestimates of greenhouse gas emissions suggest low carbon competence, Nature Climate Change, 10.1038/s41558-024-02032-z 47 cites.

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Agronomy, animal husbundry, food production & climate change

Carbon storage, climate resilience, and livelihoods in coffee agroforestry systems: a systematic review, Omer et al., Frontiers in Forests and Global Change Open Access pdf 10.3389/ffgc.2026.1865283

Impact of land use change on the long-term economic value of carbon sequestration in Central Alborz, Iran, Joloro et al., Scientific Reports Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41598-026-58621-9

Regional variability in climate stress, adaptation strategies and resilience among smallholder maize farmers in Tanzania: a systematic review, Amanje & Zhou, Frontiers in Climate Open Access pdf 10.3389/fclim.2026.1787495

The future fate of Somali upwelling productivity and the implications for fisheries under climate change, Jacobs et al., Scientific Reports Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41598-026-55455-3

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Greenhouse gas mitigation on croplands: clarifying the debate on knowns, unknowns and risks to move forward with effective management interventions, Carbon Management, 10.1080/17583004.2024.2365896 23 cites.

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Hydrology, hydrometeorology & climate change

Climatology and trends of annual maximum subdaily precipitation in the western United States, Kalashnikov et al., Weather and Climate Extremes Open Access 10.1016/j.wace.2026.100915

Comparative hydro-climatic datasets for catchment-wise linked water fluxes and storage changes across South America, Zarei & Destouni, Frontiers in Environmental Science Open Access pdf 10.3389/fenvs.2026.1764771

Contesting “climate solutionism”: Critical perspectives from the water-climate nexus, Wilson & Shah, Global Environmental Change Open Access 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2026.103185

Differential impacts of vegetation greening on evapotranspiration components across climate zones and vegetation types in China, Huo et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 10.1016/j.agrformet.2026.111309

Escalating Hydroclimatic Extremes and Volatility in the UK Under 2°C and 4°C Warming, He et al., Earth s Future Open Access 10.1029/2025ef007156

Synergistic pathways to mitigate climate and water scarcity risks, Lv et al., Nature Sustainability 10.1038/s41893-026-01880-1

Water-Limited to Energy-Limited: Seasonal Transitions in Evapotranspiration Controls Across Southern Peninsular India Under Climate Change, Hasanapuram et al., Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics 10.1016/j.jastp.2026.106876

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Phase and Amplitude Changes in Rainfall Annual Cycle Over Global Land Monsoon Regions Under Global Warming, Geophysical Research Letters, 10.1029/2024gl108496 13 cites.

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Climate change economics

Climate change as a macro-financial risk multiplier: evidence from private sector credit in fragile sub-Saharan Africa, Mohamed et al., Frontiers in Climate Open Access pdf 10.3389/fclim.2026.1872050

Comprehensive national climate damage assessments framework applied to the UK, Rising et al., Nature Climate Change 10.1038/s41558-026-02665-2

Reconciling fiscal resilience with low-carbon energy goals: Sri Lanka's carbon-aligned fuel pricing, Heenkenda & Park, Energy Policy 10.1016/j.enpol.2026.115458

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
The impact of air transportation, trade openness, and economic growth on CO2 emissions in Saudi Arabia, Frontiers in Environmental Science, 10.3389/fenvs.2024.1366054 20 cites.

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Climate change mitigation public policy research

Abating industrial nitrous oxide emissions in the United States: legal, economic and scientific dimensions, Kanter et al., Climate Policy Open Access pdf 10.1080/14693062.2026.2662997

Beyond innovation and finance: Reviewing 25 years of United States climate change adaptation foreign aid objectives across 117 projects, Hooshmandi & Sovacool, Climate and Development 10.1080/17565529.2026.2681023

Editorial: A strategic nexus for enhancing system resilience: advancing energy efficiency, reducing carbon emissions, managing water resources, and controlling air pollution in the industrial sector, Wang & Shao, Frontiers in Environmental Science Open Access pdf 10.3389/fenvs.2026.1835218

Evaluation of household electricity cost burden under Japan's green transformation, Zhou et al., Energy Policy 10.1016/j.enpol.2026.115360

Fire risk mitigation underpins durable Nature-based Climate Solutions in the Amazon, Hari et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-026-03765-9

Just-ish Transition: Rethinking justice in practice in South Korea's coal phase-out, Lee et al., Energy Research & Social Science Open Access 10.1016/j.erss.2026.104744

The possible institutionalisation of the carbon removal budget concept across the UNFCCC, UNCBD, and corporate net-zero strategies, Bencini & Iozzelli, Environmental Science & Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.envsci.2026.104390

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Effect of renewable energy subsidy policy on firms’ total factor productivity: The threshold effect, Energy Policy, 10.1016/j.enpol.2024.114241 33 cites.

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Climate change adaptation & adaptation public policy research

Analyzing climate risks in the Indian automotive sector using a capability based approach, Gund et al., Frontiers in Climate Open Access pdf 10.3389/fclim.2026.1790120

Beyond innovation and finance: Reviewing 25 years of United States climate change adaptation foreign aid objectives across 117 projects, Hooshmandi & Sovacool, Climate and Development 10.1080/17565529.2026.2681023

Building climate resilience: a systematic literature review of climate change adaptation efforts in Norwegian municipalities, Bakke & Sydnes, Climate Risk Management Open Access 10.1016/j.crm.2026.100847

Global Renewable Energy Infrastructure Resilience Under Climate Risks, Hong et al., Risk Analysis Open Access 10.1111/risa.70273

Rewriting the climate social contract: adaptation, equity, and indigenous rights in Aotearoa New Zealand, Parsons, Global Environmental Change Open Access 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2026.103161

Spatiotemporal evolution of cumulative power shortage risks in China under 2 °C warming, Wu et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2026.06.016

What climate adaptation can learn from evolutionary adaptation, Waananen et al., Conservation Biology Open Access 10.1111/cobi.70343

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Cross-border dimensions of Arctic climate change impacts and implications for Europe, Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews Climate Change, 10.1002/wcc.905 9 cites.

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Climate change impacts on human health

Association of short-term ambient heat exposure with maternal anxiety for fetal health: examining the role of heatwave and climate change risk perception, WU et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2026.06.007

Global heat stress intensification and its expanding footprint on the human population, Emerton et al., Nature Climate Change Open Access 10.1038/s41558-026-02670-5

Integrating the Health Sector Into Nationally Determined Contributions: Challenges, Opportunities and Pathways for Climate Resilient Health Systems, Manyele & Anicetus, Climate Resilience and Sustainability Open Access pdf 10.1002/cli2.70044

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Climate change is aggravating dengue and yellow fever transmission risk, Ecography, 10.1111/ecog.06942 15 cites.

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Climate change & geopolitics

Testing Arctic exceptionalism under global tensions: climate change, geopolitics, and the strategic value of the Northern Sea Route, Chen et al., Humanities and Social Sciences Communications Open Access pdf 10.1057/s41599-026-07384-9

Climate change impacts on human culture

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Climate change to exacerbate the burden of water collection on women’s welfare globally, Nature Climate Change, 10.1038/s41558-024-02037-8 36 cites.

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Other

A Conceptual Integration of Climate Justice: Taxonomy of Climate Justice Integrating Theory and Policy Practice, Anjum & Aziz, Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews Climate Change 10.1002/wcc.70078

Assessing early oil industry awareness of the impacts of fossil fuels on coral reefs using a novel AI agent, Franta et al., npj Ocean Sustainability Open Access pdf 10.1038/s44183-026-00215-z

From helicopter to satellite science: shifting climate research practices in Khumbu, Nepal Himalaya, Stuart et al., Frontiers in Earth Science Open Access 10.3389/feart.2026.1781604

New list of political jobs at science agencies called ‘weird and capricious’, Mervis, Science 10.1126/science.aej7945

Russia plans deep quest for ‘endless oil’, Dobrovidova, Science 10.1126/science.aej7952

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Observations of diapycnal upwelling within a sloping submarine canyon, Nature, 10.1038/s41586-024-07411-2 25 cites.

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Informed opinion, nudges & major initiatives

Europe must seize the moment to lead on free and open science, [authors did not process], Nature 10.1038/d41586-026-01953-3

The future of global ocean observations: five scenarios, Lehman et al., npj Ocean Sustainability Open Access pdf 10.1038/s44183-026-00219-9

‘Alternative COP’ must drive real, cooperative change in climate action, [authors did not process], Nature Open Access pdf 10.1038/d41586-026-01423-w

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Making Global Climate Action work for nature and people: Priorities for Race to Zero and Race to Resilience, Environmental Science & Policy, 10.1016/j.envsci.2024.103803 14 cites.

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Book reviews

Rejecting climate doomism, Jacques, Environmental Politics 10.1080/09644016.2026.2687244

Why heritage sites are at risk in a warming world — and how to save them, Megarry, Nature 10.1038/d41586-026-01956-0

 

Articles/Reports from Agencies and Non-Governmental Organizations Addressing Aspects of Climate Change

Powering Down Prices: Policy Solutions to Lower California’s Electricity Rates, Travis Ritchie and Ethan Elkind, The Center for Law, Energy and the Environment, UC Berkeley Law

The authors seek to develop actionable solutions to reduce electricity rates in California while furthering the state’s clean energy and climate goals. The Center for Law, Energy and the Environment at UC Berkeley Law (CLEE) convened electricity and utility experts to identify pragmatic and impactful ideas and to assess potential solutions to address electricity affordability in California. Additional research and outreach with stakeholders and decisionmakers led to the development and implementation of the analysis and practical solutions contained herein. Potential reforms include the California Legislature and Public Utilities Commission could limit the use of single-issue ratemaking mandates and tracking accounts, absent extraordinary circumstances. The legislature could increase public and public-private partnership funding of utility capital expenditures. The legislature could direct the public utilities commission to consider further reducing return on equity (in whole or in part), including a split return on equity with a lower return on wildfire mitigation plan and utility infrastructure undergrounding capital expenditures. State and local governments could increase logistical and financial support for community hardening to protect communities and redirect utility mitigation expenses toward efforts that reduce liability. The legislature or leading stakeholders could research and propose longer-term governance reform of the CPUC, including potential measures such as splitting its jurisdiction between energy and other sectors and altering the quasi-judicial processes.

Climate risk in global data center markets, First Street

The authors quantify physical climate risk across 97 investible data center markets and the implications for their underwriting, financing, and valuation. Climate risk already impacts data center markets. Approximately 54% of global capacity operates under chronic stress conditions such as extreme heat or water scarcity, while 79% is exposed to acute hazards, including flood, wind, or wildfire. These risks do not affect all markets equally, creating widening gaps in operating performance, financing conditions, and long-term valuation outcomes, as assets in higher-exposure locations face sustained cost pressures, greater outage risk, and increasing pressure on cash-flow durability. Despite this, climate risk remains underpriced. Markets with similar demand and infrastructure fundamentals are being underwritten as equivalent, even as their long-term cost structures and reliability profiles diverge. This misalignment is beginning to show up in net operating income stability, insurance availability, debt capacity, refinancing terms, and exit valuations. For investors, lenders, and operators, the implications for data centers are clear: climate risk is no longer peripheral. It is a core driver of operating performance, valuation, and credit quality for data centers as an asset class, and it has to be built directly into underwriting, pricing, and capital allocation.

Renewables shield Spanish consumers from elevated gas prices, Chris Rosslowe, Ember

As Europe is hit by its second gas price shock in five years, Spain demonstrates the ability of renewable energy to shield against volatile costs. Spain has pursued a strategic expansion of renewable energy since before the gas crisis of 2021-2024, and reinforced this approach following the Iberian blackout of April 2025. This strategy is proving its worth as Spanish consumers continue to benefit from low-cost electricity despite elevated gas prices. Building on this, Spain’s response to the 2026 energy crisis recognizes the importance of electrification to drive deeper reductions in fossil import dependency.

Fixing Climate Communications. Moving beyond narrow narratives to power durable progress, Potential Energy Coalition

Data shows that telling simple, human stories about the impact of an overheating planet on people’s everyday lives is the single best way to power new progress. The authors conducted extensive global research to identify the narratives best positioned to grow the audience; drive increased issue prioritization; inform public dialogue and decision-making; inspire leaders to champion climate solutions; and permeate new media and culture. With the right message, climate change can once again become a broadly relevant public issue. Climate action can become a top citizen priority, a top policy priority, and a message that spreads. The support is still there.

Fact Sheet | Critical Mineral Deep Dive: Lithium, Nicole Pouy, Environmental and Energy Study Institute

Lithium is a U.S. Geological Survey-designated critical mineral. It is used in high-performance batteries for electric vehicles, grid storage systems, and consumer electronics, as well as in the production of metals, ceramics, and pharmaceuticals. It is classified by the U.S. Department of Energy as “highly critical” in the medium term (through 2035) due to its importance for energy applications and exposure to supply chain risks.

Fact Sheet | Critical Mineral Deep Dive: Cobalt, Laura Gries, Environmental and Energy Study Institute

Cobalt is a U.S. Geological Survey-designated critical mineral. It is widely used in lithium-ion batteries for electric vehicles and electronics, and in superalloys for aerospace and industrial applications. The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) classifies cobalt as having medium to high importance to the clean energy transition through 2035.

Prospects for U.S.-Saudi Nuclear Energy Cooperation, Christopher Blanchard and Paul Kerr, Congressional Research Service

The 119th Congress is engaging the Trump Administration with regard to U.S. policy toward Saudi Arabia's National Project for Atomic Energy and proposals for U.S.-Saudi nuclear energy cooperation. During Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman Al Saud's visit to the United States in November 2025, the United States and Saudi Arabia signed a "Joint Declaration on the Completion of Negotiations on Civil Nuclear Energy Cooperation." Questions surrounding nuclear safeguards, monitoring, and potential production or supply of nuclear fuel are central to the debate in Congress over possible U.S.-Saudi nuclear cooperation. Unless waived, a provision of current law (P.L. 116-92, §1264; 42 U.S.C. §2153 note) restricts the executive branch from submitting a Nuclear Proliferation Assessment Statement (NPAS) required for congressional review of 123 agreements for countries, like Saudi Arabia, that have not agreed to certain international safeguards. Published excerpts of an Administration report to Congress waiving this restriction state that a draft U.S.-Saudi 123 agreement would be implemented with a Bilateral Safeguards Agreement that, "with the involvement" of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), would employ not yet publicly specified "additional safeguards and verification measures to the most proliferation sensitive areas of potential nuclear cooperation."

Advanced Geothermal Energy Is Widely Available, Clean, and Maybe Cheap Enough to Make a Big Impact, Robin Gaster, Information Technology and Innovation Foundation

Three advanced geothermal technologies—Enhanced Geothermal Systems (EGS), Advanced Geothermal Systems (AGS), and Superhot Rock Geothermal (SHR)—are poised to transform geothermal from a niche resource into a significant contributor to the U.S. energy mix. EGS produces energy at commercial scale by drilling deeper and applying techniques from oil and gas fracking to geothermal. It has enormous potential. Traditional geothermal faces limitations in identifying and exploiting underground water or brine reservoirs. EGS instead works with hot dry rocks much further underground. Fervo is the industry leader in EGS. It has generated energy at commercial scale and found commercial demand for its output. Its technology is advancing rapidly, and it is successfully funding development with outside capital. However, EGS understandably still relies on clean energy mandates and federal subsidies. More cost reductions will come as the technology scales, and EGS appears to be on the path to price/performance parity with fossil fuels and cheap renewables.

Electric Collective: Europe's Clean Energy Future Without Russia, European Council on Foreign Relations, Szymon Karda?

Following Russia’s all-out invasion of Ukraine, the EU and member states embarked on “energy diplomacy” in search of new international supplies of energy. Between 2021 and 2026, the EU successfully diversified its sources of energy and reduced its' dependence on Russian fossil fuels. It began working more closely with partners around the world on clean electricity imports and critical raw materials. However, structural weaknesses remain for the EU, including a paucity of clean energy agreements and a preponderance of gas deals locking Europeans into fossil fuel reliance. Most energy diplomacy was undertaken by individual member states. Europeans are therefore currently missing out on the energy security benefits of joint action led either by the EU or by collectives of member states. To strengthen their international energy cooperation, the EU and its member states should agree a high-level energy diplomacy framework, conclude more binding agreements that incorporate clean energy components and complete the phase-out of Russian fossil fuels.

Lethal humidity and the systemic risks of climate change, Robert Glasser, Australian Strategic Policy Institute

The author uses ‘lethal humidity’ as a focal concept, but focuses primarily on the broad category of extreme humid-heat events that are increasingly approaching, and in some regions exceeding, that threshold. It focuses on the rising threat posed by extreme humid heat, both as a stand-alone climate hazard and as part of a more complex pattern of interconnected hazards intensified by climate change. He highlights the accelerating effects of extreme humid-heat occurrences and how they will both amplify and be amplified by other climate-related events happening simultaneously or consecutively. The main objective is to show that those effects are not isolated; they cascade through societies, magnified by other climate hazards, such as storms and flooding.

United States Data Center Energy Usage Report: 2025 Update, Smith et al., Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory

The authors update the 2024 Data Center Energy Usage Report (2024 Report) and estimate that data centers could account for 11.8% of total U.S. electricity by 2030. The estimate also includes a range of scenarios that indicate the energy use could be between 9.5 and 15.3% of total U.S. electricity use by 2030. In comparison, the 2024 Report estimate range was 6.7% to 12.0% of total U.S. electricity by 2028. About New Research

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This is a re-post from Yale Climate Connections by Sarah Wesseler

ompared to most American cities, London is a paradise for climate-friendly, car-free transportation. Around a quarter of all trips in the UK capital are made on foot, and cyclists are a frequent sight on many streets. Thousands of buses – many of them electric – and hundreds of train stations serve journeys across the city and destinations farther afield, including continental Europe.

“We see London as a beacon, really, when it comes to progressive and sustainable transport policy,” said Oliver Lord, the UK lead for transportation advocacy group Clean Cities. “London has a lot of influence on the rest of Europe as well, because a lot of people look to it as the only megacity in the continent.”

The local government wants to make it even easier to get around without a car. In 2018, Mayor Sadiq Khan, now serving a third term, set a goal for 80% of all trips to happen on foot, bicycle, or public transportation by 2041 – a significant increase from the then-current figure of 63%. His administration sees reducing driving as critical to meeting its climate goals, improving public health, and generally improving residents’ lives and livelihoods.

The government has taken major steps toward reaching the 80% goal, leading to, among other things, a 43% growth in cycling since 2019.

Despite this, the city is not on track to meet its overall target. As of 2024, the overall percentage of car trips was still roughly equivalent to 2018 figures.

Other indicators show that cars remain a problem. London’s traffic is the worst in Europe and the seventh-worst globally, according to transportation data company INRIX. And climate pollution from road transportation has declined relatively little in the past two decades.

“London has made a lot of progress compared to 10 or 20 years ago,” said Izzy Romilly, who leads sustainable transport campaigns at climate organization Possible. “But compared to what needs to be done, we’re still just not moving fast enough.”

Bike lanes in London. (Image credit: Sarah Wesseler)

Most concerningly, London’s government is not alone in failing to meet the moment, according to Robin Hickman, a professor of transportation and city planning at University College London. As he wrote in his 2025 book, which compares sustainable urban transportation initiatives around the world, “even in the so-called ‘progressive’ transport cities, transport CO2 emissions are decreasing only marginally.”

Making driving less attractive

Restricting car use is a critical step in reducing car dependency. But in London, as elsewhere in the world, it often provokes intense backlash.

“We know from research going back years that just providing cycle lanes or better pedestrian areas doesn’t necessarily lead to car reduction,” said Jamie Furlong, a transportation researcher at the University of Westminster. “We can achieve more significant reductions in car use by making traveling by car more difficult, and that’s really, really politically difficult.”

Compared to American cities, London has taken bold steps to deprioritize cars. From a global perspective, however, its efforts look relatively limited, Hickman said.

These efforts started in earnest around the turn of the century. In 2003, the city implemented a congestion pricing program that charged drivers £5 ($6.73 in today’s dollars) to enter the designated area on weekdays, using cameras to record license plates. The proceeds were funneled to public transportation.

Although the program affected only a small part of the city, its impact reverberated throughout the transportation network, Lord said.

“It was that policy that initially helped the mayor at the time to introduce bus lanes, because it started to free up some of the capacity on the road network, and it also created a budget to make that investment.” (It also later helped inspire New York City’s congestion pricing program.)

But Hickman said the city’s congestion pricing program had limited direct impact, in part because limited parking in the affected area had always kept some drivers away.

“Overall, it reduced traffic a little bit, but it’s only a very small intervention,” he said.

In 2019, the government introduced a second fee-based program, the Ultra Low Emission Zone, in the city center. It charged drivers of older, more polluting vehicles £12.50 ($16.80 in today’s dollars) to enter the affected area, with the proceeds going to public transportation. In 2023, the program was expanded citywide, despite significant controversy.

Another program that has reshaped parts of the city, low-traffic neighborhoods, has also been contentious. Designed to limit through traffic on residential streets using cameras or physical barriers like planters and curbs, low-traffic neighborhoods reduce climate and air pollution while making it safer to walk and cycle. More than 100 have been rolled out in London, although 27 were later removed due to resident complaints.

Low-traffic neighborhood in outer London (Image credit: Sarah Wesseler)

In general, however, low-traffic neighborhoods – known as LTNs – tend to be popular, or simply recede into the background once they’re in place, Furlong said.

“The evidence shows, in the UK, lots of people don’t even know that they live in an LTN after it’s been implemented,” he said.

Other efforts to restrict driving include 20-mile-per-hour speed limits covering half the city’s roads and a school streets program that prevents cars from entering streets near affected schools during specific hours. The government is also pedestrianizing much of Oxford Street, the city’s main shopping corridor.

Oxford Street. (Image credit: Sarah Wesseler)

Recent comments from Mayor Khan have led to speculation that the city may also start charging large cars like SUVs to drive in London. Hickman said this step, along with charging drivers based on the number of miles traveled (which Khan has pledged not to do) and eliminating diesel vehicles, would allow the city to make greater progress on reducing driving.

London on two wheels

Today, some parts of the city are notable for their bike-friendly infrastructure and the number of cyclists on the streets. There are 268 miles of protected bike lanes, with more planned. As bike infrastructure has improved, the number of cycling trips has risen dramatically, growing 43% between 2019 and 2026.

Despite this investment, cycling remains a small player in the overall transportation system, Hickman said. Roughly 5% of trips in the city are made by bike, he noted, compared to an average of 27% in the Netherlands.

(Image credit: coldsnowstorm / Getty Images)

Moreover, cycling infrastructure is highly uneven across the city.

“There are still huge gaps in the cycling network, particularly in outer London,” Furlong said.

This problem occurs partly because each of the city’s 33 local authorities manages its own roads. Local officials’ hesitation to upset the status quo is another important factor, Hickman said: “[London] is very slow in implementing good cycle projects because they tend to be controversial with the car-owning population.”

Public transportation

What has been undeniably successful in the UK capital is mass transit, which carried around 8.8 million rides per day in 2024.

“London is one of the classic public transport cities,” Hickman said. “It has very high public transport use for trips.”

Moreover, the city continues to deliver major new mass transit projects like the Elizabeth Line, a regional express train that opened in 2022 at a cost of £18.8 billion ($25.3 billion).

(Image credit: coldsnowstorm / Getty Images)

Projects like this one tend to be easier to push through in London than efforts to restrict car use or improve bike infrastructure, Hickman said. Unlike in most American cities, Londoners from all walks of life view public transportation positively and believe it’s vital for the economy. Moreover, major mass transit projects tend to align with the logic of UK transportation planning, which weighs projects’ economic impact above factors like public health and climate change.

Although these dynamics have helped mass transit grow, the downside is that major projects often disproportionately serve wealthy communities and business interests, Hickman said. They “tend to link the financial district of London, Canary Wharf; Heathrow Airport … that type of thing. But they don’t really give better public transport for people in the suburbs.”

Suburban car dependency

Outer London, the suburban ring that’s home to more than 5 of the city’s roughly 9 million inhabitants, is much more car-dependent than the central city. Although the region is large and diverse, featuring everything from densely populated high-rise neighborhoods to semirural districts, much of it was built around cars, making walking and cycling more challenging. In a 2022 survey, only 32% of outer London respondents said they could live car-free, compared to half inner Londoners.

In recent years, the government has taken steps to improve public transportation in the suburbs, introducing a new orbital express bus network, adding bus lines, and opening stops on the Elizabeth Line. Generally, however, outer Londoners still have far less access to transit than people in the city center.

This gap creates feedback loops that complicate efforts to reduce driving. Lacking other transportation options, many suburban residents “might spend a huge amount of money on car ownership and use,” Hickman said. “And then if you say that you would like to take away that provision and give them full public transport or expect them to cycle … that doesn’t go down too well.”

Politics also come into play. Many parts of outer London are governed by conservative politicians skeptical of efforts to change the transportation system.

“There’s some unease with the right-wing councils about anything that infringes an individual’s personal freedom to drive where they like,” said Sharon Erdman, a volunteer coordinator at Mums for Lungs, a nonprofit focused on air pollution. “Whereas we feel that it’s not about them driving where they like, it’s about the cost to public health.”

Jane Dutton, a digital communications manager with Mums for Lungs who lives in outer London, said her borough leaders fit the stereotype of suburban politicians actively fighting sustainable transportation initiatives.

“The leaders are very open about absolutely, vehemently opposing things like the ultralow emission zone. They don’t think it’s necessary … They really favor cars over walking and cycling.”

Moreover, outer London officials sympathetic to efforts to reduce car dominance are often afraid to take bold action, Erdman said. In one borough she has worked with, “the council leader is really honest that they are guided by public appetite,” she said.

Since local officials have control over the roads in their communities, these dynamics have huge real-world implications.

“Ultimately, if a borough doesn’t want to do certain things, they don’t have to,” Dutton said.

Political will and public imagination

Making progress on car dependency will require the government to lead more decisively, campaigner Izzy Romilly said.

“In the UK, there’s a real political nervousness around standing up against car dependency,” she said. “But when you actually have a conversation with people, time and again, they want less traffic, they want less congestion. Support for better public transport is absolutely through the roof. So I think it really is just a case of political leadership.”

But London residents also need to do more, Hickman said. Today, “there’s no great public debate” about what kind of transportation system people actually want, he said. “That is needed to dramatically remove road space from the car and give that back to cycling and walking and transport.”

Under John Cook's supervision, Monash University's honours student Ruby Flack spent her thesis deconstructing climate myths in the CARDS taxonomy. With involvement of an interdisciplinary team, her honours thesis was subsequently converted into the paper “Identifying Flawed Reasoning in Contrarian Claims about Climate” and recently published in Environmental Communication (paywalled) with a free pre-press manuscript available here.

What follows is a quick summary based on John Cook's thread on Bluesky. In the new paper, the authors identify the logical fallacies in a comprehensive taxonomy of contrarian claims about climate change from Coan et al. (2021). An important aspect of this initial research was that it didn't make any judgements about whether the claims were misleading. That's what this new research set out to do.

Figure 1: CARDS Taxonomy - Only “childless claims” (claims with no sub-claims) were deconstructed, indicated by solid color boxes. “Parent claims” (claims with sub-claims) were excluded from deconstruction, indicated by boxes with no coloured fill. All level 1 claims are parent claims, while all level 3 claims are childless claims. Grayed-out claims were excluded from this analysis due to insufficient example paragraphs.

The authors argued that there are a number of limitations to fact-checking. While science myths (like the bulk of the myths debunked by Skeptical Science) are ripe for fact-checking, other types of myths such as policy claims, conspiracy theories, and ad hominem attacks are more challenging. Fact-checking also struggles with arguments that contain hidden premises (or unstated assumptions) which are especially insidious because they can hide where the argument misleads.

They therefore proposed logic-checking as a complement—not a replacement!—to fact-checking. This involves identifying the presence of logical fallacies—an alternative way to tag arguments as misleading. One of the benefits of logic-checking is, that it can address forms of misinformation that fact-checking struggles with. It also has another benefit which will be mentioned later.

In 2018, John Cook worked with critical thinking philosophers to develop a step-by-step methodology for logic-checking. It involves deconstructing claims into an argument structure (one or more premises leading to a conclusion), then checking for hidden premises followed by examining each premise for logical fallacies (Cook et al. 2018):

Figure 2: Simplified deconstruction workflow from Cook et al. (2018)

For this new paper, the authors expanded the 2018 flowchart to make it more practical, working with a variety of real-world misinformation. This was necessary because climate myths can come in a variety of flavours, so before they can be deconstructed, an exemplar version of each contrarian claim needed to be developed. 

Exemplars were sorted into four types depending on how varied the arguments were within each claim. The first two types were where every version of the claim could be represented by the same argument. For example, the argument “CO2 lagging temperature disproves the warming effect of CO2” essentially always takes the same form. The third type was when a claim appeared in different forms but one argument dominated. E.g., the claim “Arctic isn’t melting” took various forms such as “there’s still lots of Arctic sea ice” but most of the time, this argument took the form “Arctic sea ice hasn’t significantly decreased recently.” The fourth type was when some versions of a claim was recategorised into other claims. 

Figure 3: Deconstruction workflow from Flack et al. (2026)

They also clarified the differences between some fallacies that conceptually can be difficult to distinguish—such as cherry picking from slothful induction, and misrepresentation from oversimplification. Wendy Cook created this lovely infographic for the paper.

Figure 4: Infographic explaining two conceptually difficult to distinguish fallacies (from Flack et al. 2026)

The result of this work was a detailed summary of climate myths from the CARDS taxonomy, how each of them was deconstructed, any hidden premises in each myth, and ultimately the logical fallacies in each myth. This table is intended as a resource for anyone wishing to write debunkings of climate myths that use the fact-myth-fallacy format. A more detailed PDF-version of the deconstructed climate contrarian claims is available for download here.

Figure 5: Sample from table 3 summarizing deconstructed climate contrarian claims (Flack et al. 2026)

The authors also identified the most common fallacies in climate misinformation. Slothful induction and cherry picking were the most common, followed by oversimplification and misrepresentation. Single cause (a form of oversimplification) came in fifth.

Figure 6: Bar chart of the most common fallacies in climate misinformation (from Flack et al. 2026)

One of the most significant findings was that 91% of the claims analysed contained hidden premises with fallacies. Almost all misinformation tries to hide how it misleads. This underscores the importance of logic-checking as an essential tool in countering misinformation.

Logic-checking segues seamlessly into logic-based corrections that explain misleading techniques in misinformation. In 2017, John Cook published research finding that logic-based corrections neutralise climate misinformation across the political spectrum. In other words, logic-checking depolarizes misinformation that otherwise has a polarizing effect on the public (Cook et al. 2017).

Bottom line: logic-checking is beneficial both epistemologically (help identify misleading content that fact-checking struggles with) and with communication (neutralising polarizing misinformation). Hopefully, this research will spark both more research and practical interest in logic-checking. 

Reference:
Flack, R., Cook, J., Ellerton, P., Kinkead, D., Coan, T., Boussalis, C., … Dargaville, R. (2026). Identifying Flawed Reasoning in Contrarian Claims about Climate Change. Environmental Communication, 1–22. https://doi.org/10.1080/17524032.2026.2663476 

This is a re-post from The Climate Brink by Andrew Dessler

Last week, I attended a meeting at Columbia University on attribution science and climate law, hosted by the Sabin Center. It was a fantastic event, bringing together scientists and legal experts working at the intersection of extreme event attribution and climate law.

For those unfamiliar with it, extreme event attribution attempts to quantify the contribution of climate change to an extreme event. For example, severalgroupsanalyzed the impact of climate change on Hurricane Harvey’s enormous rainfall totals over Houston, Texas and they found that climate change increased rainfall by 15 to 38%.

One thing that came up again and again was how terrified fossil-fuel interests are of extreme event attribution science. They are acutely aware that this research could land them in court. And losing those cases would leave them legally liable for billions of dollars in climate damages.

Because the legal stakes are so high, the blowback has turned ugly. I spoke with several scientists at the meeting who are facing ongoing harassment over their work.

This blowback is a coordinated campaign to make the entire field look suspect. The goal is to create the impression that attribution science is too uncertain, too political, or too conflicted to be useful in court or in public policy. The strategy is not based on actual science or evidence of misconduct, but on the generation of doubt.

The new Merchants of Doubt

We’ve seen this before. In fact, not that long ago: We only have to go back a year to the Department of Energy (DOE) Climate Working Group (CWG) report to see an example of using doubt as the tool to push back against well-established science.

This strategy is laid out in an email from a member of the CWG, Dr. Roy Spencer, that was released during litigation over the Climate Working Group process.

shameful

The key quote is:

About all I can hope is that what we write will provide sufficient “reasonable scientific doubt” regarding the science claims in the 2009 TSD [technical support document], based upon almost 2 decades of new science, to call into question the original reasoning for the EPA Administrator’s decision that CO2 presents a threat to human health and welfare.

This statement is strong evidence that at least some members of the committee were working to support a particular policy outcome: revoking the Endangerment Finding. The email also explains how they planned to do it: by attempting to generate “reasonable doubt”.

This is going to be hard, Spencer implies. Despite falsely claiming that “2 decades of new science” weakens the case, Spencer explicitly acknowledges that the actual peer-reviewed science of climate change overwhelmingly rejects his position:

But if the science argument is decided upon by a vote, or by the number of published citations, we lose the science argument.

We can go back even further: This CWG email shares unmistakable DNA with the infamous 1969 tobacco memo that declared: “Doubt is our product, since it is the best means of competing with the ‘body of fact’ that exists in the mind of the general public. It is also the means of establishing a controversy.”

equally shameful

The tobacco memo also acknowledges the limit of this strategy: Like the CWG, they knew the science was not on their side.

Share

The new new Merchants of Doubt

The people attacking the IPCC chapter on extreme event attribution are the newest iteration of the Merchants of Doubt. Their goal, like all Merchants before them, is to introduce doubt into the process.

Because the report is not even out yet, they cannot attack its conclusions. So they are attacking the authors instead. Here is a press release from the House Science, Space, and Technology Committee:

In the letter, the Chairmen express concerns about potential conflicts of interest involving members of the Attribution Committee, stating that “publicly available information suggests a troubling pattern” in which committee members are affiliated with nonprofits that support climate accountability lawsuits, “raising the appearance of impropriety and member bias.”

Merchants of Doubt

To be clear, this is just innuendo. There is no actual evidence of bias. And given the robust process that these reports go through, including multiple lines of peer review, it seems very unlikely that significant bias can survive into the report.

When the report comes out, critics will have the opportunity to make legitimate criticisms of the report — if any exist. If none do, however, they’ll still make criticisms, but they’ll be bogus, simply designed to generate doubt. We’ll see.

A note to the press: Fix your frame

To any journalists reading this: The public debate over extreme event attribution science is not going away. The science is simply too dangerous to fossil-fuel interests for them to stop fighting it.

You very well might be assigned to write an article about this area of research in the future. When you do, do not automatically adopt the framing that climate misinformers want you to use.

They want you to frame the story around questions like: Are climate scientists trying to put their thumb on the scale to achieve a predetermined, politically motivated result? Are climate scientists improperly letting their politics invade the science of the IPCC?

That frame is a trap.

Instead, you need to view this through the historical lens of the Merchants of Doubt. How does the ecosystem of doubt operate? Who funds it? What methods do they use to misrepresent science and slime researchers? What scientific results are they trying to keep people from understanding are legitimate?

Ultimately, you need to focus your article on the generation of doubt as a way to maintain the fossil fuel industry’s social and legal license to keep burning oil, gas, and coal.

If you treat the misinformers’ frame as a legitimate, good-faith scientific critique, you are helping them produce doubt. Don’t do it. Don’t be a Merchant of Doubt.

A listing of 28 news and opinion articles we found interesting and shared on social media during the past week: Sun, June 14, 2026 thru Sat, June 20, 2026. Stories we promoted this week, by category:

Climate Change Impacts (8 articles)

• What's driving up your expenses? Many Americans say climate change Most Democrats and moderate Republicans agree that global warming is increasing the cost of living, a new survey shows. The Daily Climate, Kate Yoder, Jun 14, 2026.
• As Global Warming Threatens Corals Worldwide, Woods Hole Scientists Search for `Super Reefs` That Can Take the Heat If protected, researchers say these coral strongholds may help repopulate more degraded reefs across the Central Pacific. Inside Climate News, Teresa Tomassoni, Jun 14, 2026.
• Tensions Are Rising Between States That Rely on the Colorado River A prolonged drought means the nation’s largest reservoirs are dwindling, and litigation over access to water could lie ahead. NYT, Scott Dance, Jun 15, 2026.
• The `super El Niño` is here. What happens next could upend food systems worldwide How the cyclical weather pattern interacts with climate change could spark hunger around the world. The Daily Climate, Grist, Jun 16, 2026.
• Antarctica Heatwave: Rapid Melt-Off Sparks Warning Over Doomsday Glacier A freak Antarctica heatwave in June has stunned scientists and deepened concern that the rapid melting could accelerate future sea-level rise. IBT, Kenneth Axl, Jun 16, 2026.
• A Texas-size chunk of winter sea ice is missing from Antarctica - and it's probably not coming back An area of ice nearly the size of Texas has failed to form over the Bellingshausen Sea, off western Antarctica, as researchers investigate the links between sea ice loss and global warming. Live Science, Patrick Pester, Jun 16, 2026.
• Climate change is now causing more local extinction in temperate regions than the tropics, study shows Phys.org, Kylianne Chadwick, University of Arizona, Jun 18, 2026.
• Seal pups and seabird chicks are suffering in extreme weather. How can we protect them? The Conversation, Milan Sojitra, Mark Hemer, Sophie Bestley and Stuart Corney, Jun 19, 2026.

Climate Science and Research (6 articles)

• ‘Weird and capricious’: Experts struggle to understand new list of political jobs at science agencies NOAA among agencies to be commanded by political apparatchiks. Science, Jeffrey Mervis, June 10, 2026.
• Amoc collapse could change Europe`s climate 10x faster than expected. We aren`t ready The system of ocean current that moves heat in the Atlantic Ocean plays a key role in regulating climate, leaving us to wonder why monitoring of ocean behavior is being discontinued. The Guardian, Penny Holliday, Femke de Jong and Sjoerd Groeskamp, Jun 14, 2026.
• Climate models are missing the first warning signs of deadly Middle East heat waves, study finds Climate change deniers often criticize climate models as just more "alarmism," but here's yet another case where models are in fact underestimating hazards of human-caused climate change. Phys.org, HUJ press release, Jun 17, 2026.
• Trump U-turn on ending ocean initiative comes as UN says science is under attack The Trump administration is pausing plans to dismantle a deep-sea monitoring system after facing fierce opposition. New Zealand Herald, Agence France Presse, Jun 18, 2026.
• Does climate change lead to more migration? Here`s why researchers can`t agree on the evidence Over recent decades, the relationship between climate change and migration has become an active, dynamic field of research, but far from producing a unified view the topic is still plagued with major conceptual, methodological and political discrepancies. The Conversation, Alexis Cloquell Lozano, Beatriz Felipe Pérez, Joan Lacomba Vazquez, María Isolda Perelló Carrascosa, Jun 19, 2026.
• Is Climate Change Supercharging El Niño? As a new, potentially record-breaking El Niño begins, researchers are vigorously debating whether climate change is driving the phenomenon’s intensity. NYT, Chico Harlan, Jun 19, 2026.

Climate Policy and Politics (4 articles)

• Denial is back in vogue. As Australia leads climate talks, it`s beyond time we took the issue seriously The Guardian, Adam Morton, Jun 13, 2026.
• The UK has the means to avoid climate policy being driven by culture wars English - The Conversation, Chris Rapley, Professor of Climate Science, UCL, Jun 15, 2026.
• Bonn climate talks end in "gridlock" on adaptation and emissions-cutting Splits between developed and developing countries over finance and science held back progress on key areas of climate action, leaving disappointment and much work for COP31. Climate Home News, Joe Lo, Jun 18, 2026.
• Trump Administration Backs Off Plan to End Ocean Monitoring System The reversal comes after the Senate passed a bipartisan bill on Wednesday to block the removal of deep-sea monitoring instruments. New York Times, Maxine Joselow, Jun 18, 2026.

Miscellaneous (4 articles)

• 3 facts to ruin your World Cup watch party It's a tough job. But somebody has to do it. HEATED, Emily Atkin, Jun 12, 2026.
• 2026 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #24 A listing of 28 news and opinion articles we found interesting and shared on social media during the past week: Sun, June 7, 2026 thru Sat, June 13, 2026. Skeptical Science, Bärbel Winkler & Doug Bostrom, Jun 14, 2026.
• Analysis: UK`s EV drivers are now saving £1,100 each a year - and £3bn in total Battery EVs (BEVs) are roughly four times more efficient than combustion-engine cars, making them far cheaper to run – particularly since the Iran crisis caused a spike in fossil-fuel prices. Carbon Brief, Simon Evans, Jun 15, 2026.
• Trump admin abandons fight against wind energy as clean energy output surges Legal victories have dampened the Trump admin’s efforts to halt wind and solar power. Ars Technica, Aman Azhar, Jun 16, 2026.

Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation (2 articles)

• The easiest climate change win ever Youtube, Simon Clark, June 12, 2026.
• Efforts to combat climate change often exclude Indigenous people-and they may not have any recourse Phys.org, Buket Alt?nçelep, The Conversation, Jun 15, 2026.

Climate Education and Communication (2 articles)

• One of the world`s most important climate threats has an image problem The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is Immense in size, immense in potential impacts as it shows signs of fading due to warming, and presents similarly large challenges for conveying risks to the general public. The Conversation, Fionagh Thomson, Visiting Research Fellow, Centre for Extragalactic Astronomy, Institute for Computational Cosmology, Durham University, Jun 17, 2026.
• Cooking up the Climate Stripes, with Ed Hawkins June 20 is "Climate Stripes Day" across the world and the creator Ed Hawkins of this iconic graphic recently talked with Sarah Perkins-Kirkpatrick and Iain Strachan on their "Totally Cooked" podcast about them. 21st Center Weather on Youtube, Sarah Perkins-Kirkpatrick and Iain Strachan, June 17, 2026.

International Climate Conferences and Agreements (1 article)

• Science `under attack` from fossil fuel interests at UN climate talks A coalition of some rich nations and the world’s most vulnerable have vowed to protect climate science in UN negotiations Climate Home News, Megan Rowling, Jun 17, 2026.

Public Misunderstandings about Climate Science (1 article)

• The Shifting Politics of Climate Change A new poll suggests Republicans may be more movable on climate change than previously thought. NYT, David Gelles, Jun 18, 2026.

If you happen upon high quality climate-science and/or climate-myth busting articles from reliable sources while surfing the web, please feel free to submit them via this Google form so that we may share them widely. Thanks!

June 20 is "Climate Stripes Day" across the world and the creator Ed Hawkins of this iconic graphic recently talked with Sarah Perkins-Kirkpatrick and Iain Strachan on their "Totally Cooked" podcast about them.

From the video's description:

In this episode of Totally Cooked: The Climate & Weather Podcast, hosts Iain Strachan and Professor Sarah Perkins-Kirkpatrick sit down with one of the world’s most recognisable climate communicators: Professor Ed Hawkins from the University of Reading. Ed is the climate scientist behind the now-iconic Climate Stripes, a deceptively simple graphic made of blue and red bars that tells the story of global warming at a glance. First published in 2018, the stripes visualise more than a century of rising global temperatures, with each stripe representing the average temperature for a single year and shifting from cooler blues to warmer reds as the planet heats up.

The Climate Stripes have travelled far beyond academic journals. Downloaded more than a million times within days of their public release, they’ve appeared everywhere from social media campaigns and fashion to projections on famous landmarks, helping people around the world understand climate change without needing a single axis label or number. In this conversation, Ed explains how the idea emerged from a desire to communicate climate data more clearly, why the stripes resonated so strongly with the public, and how visualisations like the climate spiral (another of his widely shared creations) can make complex science instantly understandable.

But this episode goes beyond the stripes. Ed also discusses his research into climate variability and extreme weather, his work with the UK’s National Centre for Atmospheric Science, and the Weather Rescue citizen science project, which recruits volunteers to digitise historical weather records from handwritten archives. Together, these efforts help scientists extend the climate record further into the past, giving us a clearer picture of how quickly our climate is changing, and why communicating that change effectively matters more than ever.

Iain records Totally Cooked on the lands of the Bunurong People of the Kulin Nation. Sarah records Totally Cooked on the lands of the Ngunnawal and Ngambri people. We pay our respects to Elders past, present and emerging and recognise their unique and continuing connection to the land, skies, waters, plants and animals.

Link to the episode's page.

This is a re-post from Yale Climate Connections by Ben Tracy, Climate Central

If you feel like your electricity bill just keeps climbing, you aren’t imagining it. Since 2020, U.S. residential energy prices have surged by about 30%, making power the largest household energy expense behind gasoline, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.

But for residents like Alex Curtis, the days of feeling powerless against rising costs are coming to an end. Curtis is waging a war on his electric bill, and his new weapon of choice is a lightweight, thin-film solar panel.

“Oh, it’s super light too,” Curtis remarked as he unboxed the kit on the balcony of his condo in Sunnyvale, California. It weighs just about 10 pounds. 

The ‘plug-and-play’ revolution Unlike traditional rooftop solar, which requires thousands of dollars in upfront costs, specialized mounting hardware, and professional electricians, this system is designed for the everyday consumer. It’s a $400 kit from Bright Saver, a non-profit advocating for “plug-and-play” solar that works for renters and homeowners alike.

The setup is deceptively simple: you hang the panel on a balcony or prop it up in a backyard and plug it directly into a standard wall outlet.

“I did some rough math and this might save me like $30 to $50 a month,” Curtis said.

The magic happens behind the scenes. Once plugged in, a small inverter syncs the solar energy with the home’s existing electrical infrastructure. It took about 15 minutes to get it all set up. Bright Saver’s Rupert Mayer then pointed to a light on the inverter: “Ah, here it is, it’s blue.”

“This is it. Easy,” Curtis replied. Within minutes, he was generating his own clean energy. He estimates it will be enough to power an appliance like his refrigerator. 

Small panels, big impact

Cora Stryker, co-founder of Bright Saver, believes this technology is key to democratizing the green energy transition. It not only cuts an individual’s planet-warming pollution but also their electric bill. 

“Clean energy actually is the cheapest form of energy around,” Stryker said, “and we the consumers should be benefiting from that.”

While these panels won’t take a home entirely off the grid, Stryker says the units can trim monthly costs by 10% to 25% depending on how many panels a user installs. More savings can be had if the panels are paired with batteries that can store excess solar energy. 

“They cover a part of your energy bill and then you do need to draw the rest from the grid as you do now,” Stryker explained. 

The “Balkonkraftwerk” trend

While the technology is just gaining a foothold in the U.S., it is already a cultural phenomenon in Europe. In Germany, these systems are so common they have a specific name: Balkonkraftwerk, or “balcony power plant.”

An estimated 4 million balcony solar units are currently installed in Germany. The U.S., however, has been slower to adopt the tech, largely due to a patchwork of utility regulations and bureaucratic red tape. Utilities in some states have pushed back against the use of these systems citing potential hazards to the safety of the grid and line workers. 

“And that is patently ridiculous for these little systems,” Stryker said. “Those laws were intended for rooftop systems 5 to 20 times as large.”

A changing legal landscape

The tide is quickly turning. In 2025, Utah became the first state to officially authorize plug-in solar. Overall, 34 states and Washington, D.C., have introduced legislation to allow for use of the technology. It has passed in Colorado, Connecticut, Maine, Maryland, New Hampshire, and Virginia. 

For advocates like Stryker, it’s a matter of personal liberty: “It’s kind of like ‘don’t tell me what to do in my own backyard and on my own balcony.’”

As for Alex Curtis, he knows his Sunnyvale neighbors might have questions when they see the sleek panel hanging from his railing, but he’s focused on his newfound taste of energy independence. 

“I think that’s what gets me excited,” Curtis said. “Being able to power my own stuff and be self- sufficient like in baby steps which is pretty cool.”

Climate Central is an independent group of scientists and communicators who research and report the facts about our changing climate and how it affects people’s lives. It is a policy-neutral 501(c)(3) nonprofit.

We handpick and explain the most important stories at the intersection of climate, land, food and nature over the past fortnight.

This is an online version of Carbon Brief’s fortnightly Cropped email newsletter.
Subscribe for free here.

Key developments Ocean talks 

MAKING WAVES: African and Commonwealth countries issued a “call to action” to implement the High Seas Treaty at the Our Ocean Conference in Kenya this week, reported the Associated Press. The summit, which ends on 18 June, is focused on ocean issues including “climate change, biodiversity and pollution”, said the newswire. The UK government announced £13.9m in marine-related funding at the summit. 

OCEAN ‘STRAIN’: Climate change, pollution, overfishing and biodiversity loss are putting oceans under “severe strain”, according to a UN report. The third “world ocean assessment” noted that conservation efforts have also “grown”, including through “nature-based solutions, ecosystem restoration and sustainable management techniques”. Meanwhile, another UN report said that fisheries and aquaculture production reached an all-time high of 235m tonnes in 2024.

OBSERVATION ISSUES: Scientists told the Guardian that the Trump administration’s plan to dismantle a key ocean-observation system run by the US would “severely degrade” the accuracy of weather forecasts around the world. Several Democratic and one Republican lawmaker pushed back against the plan to get rid of the system, reported the Associated Press. [For more, see the first edition of Cited, Carbon Brief’s newsletter on climate science.]

Plant and fungi update

OFF-KILTER: Plant flowering times have “shifted significantly” over the last century, according to an AI-assisted analysis of 8m “digitised herbarium specimens” in the latest “state of the world plants and fungi” report from the Royal Botanic Gardens Kew. The report stated there have been “both advances and delays” in flowering date, with a median shift of 2.5 days per decade in either direction. The greatest variation was observed in the tropics, it added.

‘NEW ERA’: The report highlighted that Kew recently completed a digitisation of 7.4m herbarium and fungarium specimens in its collection. The ongoing digitisation of specimens around the world, alongside AI technology, could “transform understanding of biodiversity loss and climate change and pave the way to resolving these seemingly intractable crises”, it said.

EXTINCTION RISK: In its coverage of the report, the Guardian said that AI and digitalisation could help scientists document “vital” plant species “before they vanish”. About 40% of the world’s “assessed” 70,000 plant species are at risk of extinction, while a further 330,000 are yet to be analysed, according to the newspaper. The situation for fungi is “even more stark”, it reported, with 90% of an estimated 2m species still “unknown to science” and less than 1% of known species assessed for extinction risk.

News and views

• BEEF TRACKS: A “landmark” law in Colombia requiring the beef industry to prove supply chains are deforestation-free has taken effect, reported the Associated Press. The measure is part of efforts to “reverse decades of forest loss, much of it driven by the expansion of cattle ranching into previously forested areas”, noted the newswire. 
• CONTINGENCY PLAN: With El Niño conditions officially confirmed as underway, the Indian government called for an “overhaul” of agricultural districts’ plans for managing the impact of below-normal rainfall on crops, reported Down to Earth. Around 150-200 districts have been identified as “most critical” based on projections, the outlet noted.
• MEATIER: Global meat supply has increased fourfold in the past six decades, according to a UN report covered by the Guardian. Agriculture’s “planet-heating emissions are forecast to rise by 7.6% over the next decade” as food production continues to grow, the newspaper said. 
• TREES, NOT TARMAC: Kenya’s former chief justice, David Maraga, was among a number of protesters arrested in Nairobi for demonstrating against plans to turn 75 acres of Nairobi National Park into a car park, reported Kenya’s Daily Nation. Demonstrators were en route to deliver a petition to Kenya’s Wildlife Service when they were interrupted by anti-riot police officers, according to the newspaper.
• MANGROVES BACK, ALRIGHT: A new study covered by BBC News found that mangrove forests are “staging an unexpected comeback” globally. The broadcaster said mangroves had been “declining rapidly as they were cleared for fish farms and housing”, but the world is now “gaining more mangroves than it has been losing”. 
• ‘LIMITED’ PROGRESS: Some 59% of the world’s largest financial institutions do not have a deforestation policy in place, according to the latest “forest 500” report from Global Canopy. The report – which assesses the 150 financial institutions that provide the most financing to the 500 companies with the “greatest influence” on deforestation – described finance sector progress on forest loss in 2025 as “limited”.

Spotlight Coral reef ‘hope’ 

This week, Carbon Brief reports on research estimating coral reef resilience. 

New research offers a sliver of “hope” that 30% of the world’s coral reefs could be “resilient” against the harmful effects of climate change. 

The study, which is in the final stages of peer review and due to be published soon, identified swathes of reefs that have the best potential to withstand and recover from marine heatwaves and other stressors. 

Climate change is a major threat to the survival of coral reefs. In a 2018 report, the UN’s science body warned that reefs could decline by an additional 70-90% at 1.5C of warming and as much as 99% under 2C.

The areas of potentially resilient reefs identified in the new study span almost 166,000 square kilometres – an area twice the size of Scotland. 

These reefs are spread across 71 countries and 100 territories, but 61% are found in the territorial waters of just five nations – Australia, the Bahamas, Cuba, Indonesia and the Philippines. 

The lead study author, Dr Kyle Zawada from Macquarie University in Australia, told Carbon Brief that the research shows the areas that could most likely “persist through climate change”. He added:  

“[Coal reefs] are obviously in dire straits – but that’s not to say there are not pockets of resistance and pockets of resilience.”

Fewer than 30% of the reefs deemed to be the most climate-resilient are contained in protected or conserved areas, the study noted. 

The map below shows a snapshot of the findings, highlighting the Great Barrier Reef off the north-eastern coast of Australia. The light pink areas are regular reefs, while the slightly darker pink are “climate-resilient” reefs. 

Map of coral cover at the Great Barrier Reef off the coast of Queensland, Australia. Source: SkyTruth Reef maps

The team, led by researchers from Macquarie University and the Wildlife Conservation Society, used the findings from more than 45,000 research surveys on corals over 1960-2025 in modelling simulations to create a map of coral cover around the world in 2020 and projections for 2050.

The modelling looked at various scenarios of future emissions and the researchers developed criteria to determine which reefs could be best positioned to survive or recover from extreme events and higher temperatures.

This specified that, for example, larger-sized reefs and those with a wide diversity of coral species tend to be more resilient than smaller areas with a lower variety of coral. 

Zawada told Carbon Brief that the study does not replace real-life observations of how reefs respond to extremes. But, he added, it offers a “good guess” of areas to protect: 

“It would be nice to say that there are these little reefs of hope, obviously with the massive asterisks that this doesn’t mean that these ones are out of the woods…and to sort of use that as a rallying call for us to take that hope forward and have a look at these reefs.” 

Watch, read, listen

WAY DOWN: An interactive article in the New York Times detailed the ongoing “quest” to mine the deep sea. 

‘PING-PONG SPONGES’: The Guardian delved into the “secrets of the deep sea”. 

DENTAL DAMAGE: A dentist wrote about how “extreme heat is turning Pakistani farmworkers’ mouths into hostile environments for their own teeth” in the Earth Island Journal.  

‘PIG ELECTION’: DeSmog explored the impacts of Denmark’s plans to “radically overhaul its drinking water policy as part of a raft of sweeping reforms to the country’s livestock industry”.  

New science

• Lower rainfall levels, driven by deforestation, led to a reduction in soya bean production in southern Brazil over 1982–2018 | Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
• A “partial ecosystem collapse scenario” that considers changes to tropical timber, wild pollination and marine fisheries services could increase the annual debt-servicing costs of 23 countries by $162bn | Nature Ecology & Evolution
• Around 7% of the global population of Tapanuli orangutans – the “world’s rarest ape” – was killed after extreme rainfall led to “widespread landslides” in Sumatra, Indonesia, in 2025 | Current Biology

In the diary

• 19 June-27 June: London climate action week 
• 21 June: Colombian presidential elections (second round)
• 22-26 June: 26th meeting of the UN open-ended informal consultative process on oceans and the law of the sea | New York City 
• 30 June-4 July: 4th meeting of partners of the Global Peatlands Initiative | Lima, Peru

Cropped 3 June 2026: Highway through the Amazon | El Niño impact | State of CO2 removal

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03.06.26

Cropped 20 May 2026: Deforestation roadmap | Melanesian Ocean Summit | Returning pet parrots to the wild

Cropped

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20.05.26

Cropped 6 May 2026: Forest loss falls | Deforestation regulations | Saving ‘India’s Galapagos’

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06.05.26

Cropped 22 April 2026: Global food ‘catastrophe’ | BECCS emissions | UK solar farm controversy

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22.04.26

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The post Cropped 17 June 2026: Coral reef ‘hope’ | Ocean talks | Plant flowering times ‘shift’ appeared first on Carbon Brief.

Skeptical Science is partnering with Gigafact to produce fact briefs — bite-sized fact checks of trending claims. You can submit claims you think need checking via the tipline.

Does solar energy need subsidies to compete with fossil fuels?

Unsubsidized utility-scale solar is now generally cheaper than building fossil fuel power plants.

Costs are often compared using “levelized cost of energy,” the average lifetime cost to build and run a power plant divided by the electricity it produces. A 2025 analysis estimates the mean LCOE of utility-scale solar at about $58 per megawatt-hour without subsidies, compared to $79 for new natural gas plants and $128 for new coal. The International Energy Agency reports solar energy is the cheapest source of new electricity generation in most parts of the world.

Solar costs have fallen sharply over the past decade as panel prices have dropped and the industry has grown. Subsidies can further lower costs, but solar is not dependent on them to compete with fossil fuels.

Go to full rebuttal on Skeptical Science or to the fact brief on Gigafact

This fact brief is responsive to quotes such as this one.

Sources

International Energy Agency World Energy Outlook 2020

Lazard Lazard Releases 2025 Levelized Cost of Energy+ Report

Reuters Around 90% of renewables cheaper than fossil fuels worldwide, IRENA says

Scientific American Wind and Solar Energy Are Cheaper Than Electricity from Fossil-Fuel Plants

Columbia Law School Sabin Center for Climate Change Law Rebutting 33 False Claims About Solar, Wind, and Electric Vehicles

Please use this form to provide feedback about this fact brief. This will help us to better gauge its impact and usability. Thank you!

About fact briefs published on Gigafact

Fact briefs are short, credibly sourced summaries that offer "yes/no" answers in response to claims found online. They rely on publicly available, often primary source data and documents. Fact briefs are created by contributors to Gigafact — a nonprofit project looking to expand participation in fact-checking and protect the democratic process. See all of our published fact briefs here.

More energy-efficient air-conditioning units could, together, save Indian households ₹69bn ($724m) a year, according to new analysis by Carbon Brief. 

Climate change-induced extreme heat is driving up the use of air conditioning across the country, as people try to cope with record-breaking temperatures. 

This demand, however, is straining the country’s power grid and raising emissions. 

On 21 May 2026, India’s power demand reached a record 270 gigawatts (GW), fuelled by a heatwave sweeping across the country and a surge in air-conditioning demand.

Carbon Brief’s analysis shows that, if the roughly 15m households expected to buy a new air conditioning (AC) unit this year bought a “five-star” rated one instead of a “two-star”, it would cut carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions by nearly 5m tonne (Mt). 

The installation of AC units in India is currently uneven and ongoing challenges remain, predominantly around the cost of the technology. 

Below, Carbon Brief looks at what more energy-efficient models would mean for India’s emissions and household electricity savings, as well as opportunities and barriers to cooling access. 

Record heat

Historically, India has had one of the lowest levels of access to cooling in the world. As the nation continues to see an increasing number of heatwave days, this is shifting.

For example, India saw record-breaking heat in 2024 and nearly 14m air conditioners sold – up from 10m in 2023.

Between 2021 and 2023, AC sales volumes increased by more than 25% year-on-year in India.

While solar power is playing an increasing role in meeting the daytime electricity demand from these units, coal power plays a significant role in powering air conditioners on warm nights.

By 2037, India’s space-cooling demand was expected to grow nearly 11-fold in a business-as-usual scenario compared to 2017, according to the government’s 2019 India Cooling Action Plan (ICAP). 

According to a World Bank study, this would mean a new air-conditioning unit is bought every 15 seconds in India. There would also be a 435% increase in annual greenhouse gas emissions related to air conditioning in the country over the next two decades. 

The chart below shows the ICAP’s estimated rise in air conditioner units in India from 2021 to 2037. The blue line represents a high-growth scenario, while the green line corresponds to a low-growth scenario. 

Residential air-conditioner ownership projections under low (green line) and high (blue line) growth scenarios, according to the India Cooling Action Plan’s projections. Source: ICAP (2019). Growing demand

Despite the upswing in installations over recent years, it remains rare for households to have access to air conditioning in India. 

According to India’s national sample survey in 2020-21, only 4.9% of Indian households owned air conditioning, with ownership concentrated among the urban rich. As of 2024, this had increased to around 8%. 

(Ownership of evaporative air coolers is significantly higher than it is for air conditioning, particularly in the arid north and central Indian states, where humidity is low.)

Dr Nikit Abhyankar, an associate adjunct professor at the Goldman School of Public Policy at the University of California Berkeley, tells Carbon Brief that India is set to add between 100-150m new air conditioners in the next 10 years, which could go up to 200m “if you factor in the crazy heatwaves”. 

According to his research, the two factors that drive “dramatic” sales of ACs are income and extreme temperatures. 

He tells Carbon Brief:

“The moment you cross a specific income threshold, the first appliance you buy is an air conditioner, no matter whether it’s hot or not. And the moment there are extreme temperatures, the next summer, you see a huge wave of new ACs being purchased.”

With that in mind, he says India offers a “classic lock-in opportunity”, since 90% of the air conditioners that will exist in 2040 have yet to be purchased, particularly given the tendency among Indian users to repair and reuse units. Abhyankar continues:

“That’s why making sure that first AC purchase is the most efficient one is very important in India, because that AC is not going out of the market in seven years.”

Energy-efficient units

With the number of air-conditioning units in India on the rise, ensuring they are as energy-efficient as possible could save households money, while cutting emissions and electricity demand. 

India’s Bureau of Energy Efficiency (BEE) mandates star ratings for air conditioners to indicate their efficiency. It uses a metric called the Indian seasonal energy efficiency ratio (ISEER), which is based on an India-specific temperature distribution. 

Ratings range from one to five stars, with the latter being the most energy-efficient. 

According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), three-star units “dominate” India’s air-conditioning market, “possibly due to [up-front] cost considerations”, while four- and five-star units account for a minority of sales. 

The chart below shows AC production volumes in India between 2019 and 2023 by energy-efficiency star rating, according to the IEA.  

Annual air conditioner production volumes in India by efficiency rating and fiscal year, 2019-2023. Source: International Energy Agency (2024).

Carbon Brief analysis finds that buying a five-star air conditioner could cut the emissions associated with generating electricity to run the unit by around 300 kilograms (kg) of CO2 per year, when compared to a two-star unit. 

As such, if all 15m air-conditioning units expected to be sold in 2026 were five-star, it could save 5MtCO2 annually. 

This is roughly equivalent to the emissions from an average-sized coal-fired power plant, the analysis shows. 

In a year, the lower electricity demand from more efficient units could mean ₹69bn ($724m) in cost savings for consumers, as shown in the chart below. Each affected household could save ₹4,600 ($48) annually on their bills. 

Running cost (blue) and potential savings (red) of 15m two-star and five-star rated air-conditioning in a year, ₹bn. Source: Carbon Brief analysis.

There are also significant savings from five-star units compared with three-stars, amounting to around 150kgCO2 and ₹2,300 ($24) per household per year.

Carbon Brief’s illustrative analysis is supported by a new working paper from the India Energy and Climate Center (IECC) at UC Berkeley, which looks at the longer-term impact of AC demand on electricity demand and emissions, as well as grid investment costs and consumer savings. 

Released in May 2026, it says that room air conditioners already account for nearly a quarter of India’s peak electricity demand (60-70GW). 

The authors estimate that AC-driven peak power demand could reach 120GW by 2030 and 180GW by 2035, pushing India’s power grid beyond its capacity. They warn:

“Even with all under-construction generation and storage projects online, power shortages are expected as early as 2028.”

Sustained energy-efficiency improvements, however, could reduce this cooling-driven peak power demand by 10GW by 2030 and 47GW by 2035. 

They estimate that these improvements could help avoid nearly $80bn in power infrastructure investments and deliver $9-25bn in consumer savings between 2028 and 2035, while reducing emissions by 12MtCO2 per year by 2030. 

Rolling out five-star units

While there are emissions and cost benefits to five-star air-conditioning units compared to the alternatives, the higher upfront costs can still present a barrier. 

These more energy-efficient units can pay for their higher purchase price over a three-year period, but on average cost ₹5,000 to ₹8,000 ($52-84) more upfront than a three-star unit. 

Researchers at the Indian climate thinktank Sustainable Futures Collaborative (SFC) called on Indian state and national governments to create a “highly-targeted active cooling” programme last year.

They recommended deploying a subsidy or a large-scale purchase programme that allows families to buy energy-efficient air conditioners. This, they said, must be targeted at portions of Indian cities with the highest heat risk, determined by the vulnerability assessments of their heat action plans. 

Climate adaptation researcher at King’s College London and SFC author Aditya Valiathan Pillai tells Carbon Brief: 

“Commit money to air conditioning for the poorest-of-the-poor: subsidise ultra-efficient ACs and electricity, but give them cool air at the cheapest possible, most efficient rate. 

“Because these are the people running the economy, which is not going to function in a heatwave if these people are dying or unable to work.”

Methodology 

Carbon Brief’s analysis is based on official energy consumption, power pricing and emissions data from different ministries and government institutions. 

It uses BEE’s “search and compare” tool to list all five-star and three-star “variable speed” or “inverter” air conditioners, given their enhanced efficiency and ability to regulate humidity.

This was then filtered to air conditioners with a capacity of 1.5t, which studies say are most preferred by Indian households. 

Using the same tool, Carbon Brief then listed all “fixed speed” two-star ACs of a similar capacity (1.45t to 1.55t), given that these account for the majority of two-star ACs available on the market and favoured by renters.

Based on expert estimates, the analysis lists the energy consumption of each of these key categories in kilowatt-hours (kWh) and added 15% to account for losses in power transmission and distribution. 

The carbon intensity of Indian electricity is specified by the CO2 baseline database published by India’s Central Electricity Authority in November 2025.

The number of hours per year a household’s air conditioning runs is estimated at 1,600 hours by the BEE. 

Carbon Brief uses a marginal electricity tariff of ₹10 per kWh to calculate annual electricity consumption costs. 

This is because average electricity tariffs vary significantly from state to state, but especially by energy consumption “slabs”, with AC use pushing bills into higher-tariff rates. 

For instance, in Maharashtra, electricity tariffs for domestic households range from ₹1.52 per unit for below-poverty-line households to ₹16.64 per unit for homes using more than 500 units of electricity. 

Savings from higher energy efficiency, therefore, reduce electricity consumption in the highest electricity tariff block, where rates are the most expensive.

Cooling hours

Air-conditioner usage varies across India’s climatic zones. The ISEER metric that underpins star ratings estimates that, on average, a household air conditioner runs for 1, 600 hours a year. 

This estimate is based on 2014 weather data for 54 cities across India, to see how many hours in a year temperatures exceed 24C. 

Refrigerant emissions

The analysis only accounts for emissions from electricity generation and does not factor in “fugitive” emissions from refrigerant leaks. 

These are significant, given that refrigerants are greenhouse gases that can have hundreds of times more warming potential than CO2. 

According to a study published by climate thinktank iForest last year, Indian households with air conditioning are refilling their refrigerants more frequently than the global average. 

It estimates that greenhouse gas emissions from refrigerant release from India’s air conditioners were 52Mt of CO2 equivalent (CO2e) in 2024, likely to increase to 84MtCO2e by 2035.

Cooling access and population data

Government estimates vary on how many Indian households do not own a single air conditioner, with little publicly available data differentiating between cooling devices and a delayed national census. 

India’s national sample survey, published in 2020-21, is the only one of its kind in recent years to separate air-conditioner ownership from air cooler ownership, estimating that only 4.9% of all Indian households owned an air conditioner. 

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The post Analysis: Energy-efficient air conditioning could save Indian homes 69bn rupees a year appeared first on Carbon Brief.

This is a re-post from The Climate Brink

I’ve often come across graphs on social media showing atmospheric CO2 concentrations over time, with various dates of climate agreements highlighted. Shared by doomers and skeptics alike, they are used to argue that the rise of CO2 concentrations is inexorable and has not (or perhaps cannot) be slowed by actions we take.

One example from the Orwellian-named climate skeptic group “Friends of Science”.

On the other hand global CO2 emissions – the very precursors to those concentrations – have largely plateaued. After increasing by more than 20% in the 2000s, CO2 emissions today are a mere 3% higher than they were in 2013. This plateau has been driven in part by a rapid expansion of clean energy globally, with spending on clean energy rising from around $600 billion in 2020 to $2.3 trillion in 2025. At the same time we’ve seen notable reductions in land use emissions associated with reduced rates of deforestation in countries like Brazil.

Figure via Carbon Brief.

So if global CO2 emissions are flattening, why do atmospheric concentrations appear to be growing unabated? The answer is in the persistent nature of atmospheric CO2.

About half of the CO2 humans emit into the atmosphere remains there for at least a century (and about 20% for more than 10,000 years), with the remainder being absorbed by land (mostly vegetation) and ocean (mostly geochemical) carbon sinks. This means that even with flat CO2 emissions we would expect atmospheric CO2 concentrations to increase – that concentrations are approximately the integral of annual emissions.

This means that, generally speaking, if emissions remain flat concentrations would linearly increase. If emissions increase, concentration growth accelerates, while if emissions fall, concentration growth slows down. Its a bit more complicated in practice – unlike for temperatures we can get atmospheric CO2 concentrations to fall if emissions are reduced enough, where sinks take up more CO2 than we emit. But broadly speaking we expect atmospheric CO2 to keep growing until we cut emissions pretty substantially (e.g. to <50% of current levels).

Either way, atmospheric CO2 is better seen as a lagging rather than leading indicator of changes in emissions, as it is harder to see the effects of emissions reductions on concentrations over shorter time periods.

What we can do, however, is use reduced-complexity carbon-cycle models to examine how different atmospheric CO2 concentrations would have been if global emissions had not plateaued. To start with, lets assess what would have happened to global CO2 emissions if they had continued increasing at the ~2.2% per year that we saw in the 2000s. This is shown in the figure below.

Next lets use a reduced complexity carbon cycle model to convert these additional emissions into atmospheric concentrations. Here I am using the Joos et al (2013) impulse response function which describes the fraction of a one-year pulse of CO? that stays in the atmosphere as the ocean and land sinks gradually draw it down. These pulses are then convolved into changes in atmospheric concentrations over time.

Here we see that atmospheric CO2 concentrations would have been approximately 8 ppm higher if global emissions had not plateaued over the past 13 years.

Finally, lets add in annual variability in atmospheric CO2, both observed (blue line) and modeled (red line).

We can also extend this all the way back to the start of the record. As expected, a plateauing of global CO2 emissions transitioned us from an accelerated growth rate to a more linear growth rate. Its not a dramatic swing – global CO2 emissions remain at above 40 billion tons per year! – but its at least some detectable progress away from a much worse emissions future.

What are the takeaways here? Atmospheric CO2 concentrations are still climbing despite some success in flattening global emissions. But this is generally what we’d expect; if emissions had continued to increase concentrations would be noticeably higher and accelerating rather than exhibiting a more linear increase. Observed increases in atmospheric CO2 are, if anything, a bit on the low end (though still in the uncertainty range) of what the model expects based on observed emissions.1 I’ve included a more detailed writeup and code to reproduce this analysis on my GitHub here.

So next time someone shows you a graph of CO2 concentrations and argues that nothing is changing, you can show them how much worse it would have been had we really done nothing to change our emissions trajectory.

Update

I got a number of questions from folks about the role of slower growth in fossil emissions vs falling land use emissions in driving these changes. It turns out that around 78% of the avoided increase in atmospheric CO2 is attributable to fossil emissions, and 22% to land use. The GitHub repo has more details on this sensitivity test.

1 This suggests that it is our emissions, not recent changes in carbon cycle feedbacks, that are the main driver of growth in atmospheric concentrations. That being said, we still expect some weakening of carbon sinks in a warmer world – something we have started to see in the data.