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Carbon removal combined with emissions reduction is the only remaining pathway to avert catastrophic levels of warming, a new report warns.

Published Sept. 2, 2026

The world has failed in its goal of limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius above preindustrial times, the United Nations said on Wednesday, in a sober assessment that laid out a new goal for fighting climate change that would set the world on an uncertain path.

A decade ago, most of the world’s countries agreed in Paris to try to limit global temperature rise to “well below” two degrees Celsius while aiming for the more ambitious target of 1.5 degrees Celsius, or 2.7 degrees Fahrenheit.

But Wednesday’s 141-page U.N. report warned that the world is certain to breach that mark and should focus on finding ways to limit “overshoot” and eventually bring global temperatures back down.

Despite advancements in wind and solar power, countries have continued to burn oil, gas and coal, releasing carbon dioxide into the atmosphere where it traps heat and has raised average global temperatures by about 1.4 degrees Celsius. The damage from global warming is now felt across the planet, with intensifying heat, drought, floods, fire and other threats to humans, animals and plants.

The idea laid out in the U.N. report would be extremely difficult because it would require pulling carbon dioxide out of the atmosphere on a colossal scale. Achieving that would potentially mean blanketing enormous parts of the world with forests or relying on novel technologies for sucking carbon out of the air that haven’t yet worked on any significant scale.

Under such a scenario, the planet would still continue to heat up for the foreseeable future, and wouldn’t return to temperatures like today’s for decades or even centuries. And some changes, like glacial melting or rising seas, would be essentially irreversible.

“This is by no means an acceptable or preferred pathway,” the U.N. said in its report Wednesday. “It is simply the best remaining option.”

But even this fallback plan would require the kind of climate ambition and major cuts in greenhouse gas emissions that have long been out of reach. To add to the challenges, the Trump administration has withdrawn the United States, the largest historical emitter of greenhouse gases, from the global fight against climate change and weakened domestic environmental policies.

Based on current climate policies among nations and trends, the planet is expected to warm 2.6 degrees Celsius, or 4.7 degrees Fahrenheit, by the end of the century.

“So long as we fail to find political will, we will be marching past every target we put out there. That is the danger,” said Michael Mann, a professor of earth and environmental science at the University of Pennsylvania who was not involved with the report.

Dr. Mann noted that even at current levels of warming, “dangerous and catastrophic climate change is here,” referencing last week’s deadly glacial collapse and flood in Nepal.

António Guterres, the U.N.’s secretary general, had previously acknowledged that the 1.5 Celsius mark — the most ambitious aspect of the Paris Agreement among nations to limit global warming — would inevitably be breached. The new report makes clear just how little margin there is for the overshoot plan to be feasible.

Specifically, in order for temperatures to be brought back to the 1.5-degree mark this century, global warming at its peak would have to be limited to 1.8 Celsius (3.2 Fahrenheit), compared with preindustrial times. Most scientists describe that as unlikely.

Then, countries would have to ramp up an enormous program for removing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. Even under the most optimistic scenarios, a single decade of warming could take about 50 years to reverse.

Glen Peters, a senior researcher at the CICERO Center for International Climate Research in Norway, said the idea of bringing down temperatures might sound as easy as “planting a billion trees” to absorb carbon dioxide. But tracts of land larger than entire American states would need to be reforested. Conflicts with agriculture could arise. Higher temperatures could hinder forest growth. And of course, wildfires could stymie progress.

“Anything at scale, you’re going to run into some sort of problem,” said Dr. Peters, who was not involved in the report.

The report says that while tech-based solutions would be needed, it noted that the current industrial capacity to pull carbon dioxide from the atmosphere is extremely limited. The technology has long been controversial in part because the fossil fuel industry has pitched it as a way for their products to continue to be used. Over the course of the industrial age, the burning of fossil fuels has released immense amounts of planet-warming carbon dioxide into the atmosphere.

Climate Analytics, a Berlin-based climate science and policy institute, said in a statement that the U.N. report risked “being a call to apathy,” and criticized the report for not more explicitly mentioning the need to phase out fossil fuels. Countries committed to pivot away from oil, gas and coal at an international climate summit in 2023 but carbon emissions continue to climb.

The U.N. report predicted the rise in average global temperatures would eclipse 1.5 degrees Celsius in “the next few years.” At that level of warming, “there are no good outcomes,” said Inger Andersen, the executive director of the U.N. Environment Program.

Already common extreme weather events, like heat waves and floods, will intensify, as will the melting of glaciers, the rising of sea levels and the bleaching of coral reefs, the report said. There is also a risk of changes in crucial global systems, like the weakening or collapse of ocean currents that carry heat northward from the tropics, the report said, with the potential to “reshape the world forever.”

Ruling finds Biden administration’s approval violated Endangered Species Act

by Hannah Meisel -September 1, 2026

A federal judge this week ordered the U.S. Forest Service to suspend a commercial logging project in southern Illinois’ Shawnee National Forest, finding the 2024 approval of the project under President Joe Biden violated the Endangered Species Act.

The agency improperly approved the project in October 2024 without waiting for a final “biological opinion” from the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, an East St. Louis judge ruled Monday. That opinion, which was completed six weeks after the Forest Service approved the logging project, identified the roughly 70-acre project area as home to the federally protected Indiana bat.

Environmental groups sued the Forest Service last summer, alleging the agency’s own August 2024 assessment of the area disclosed Indiana bats had been detected in the project area. The assessment, an internal, nonpublic document, concluded that even if the Forest Service implemented all legally required mitigation measures, the logging project would be “likely to adversely affect” the endangered bats.

The groups alleged the agency’s “decision memo” approving the project that fall was “written to falsely suggest that the Forest Service’s surveys detected no endangered bats in the project area” and did not mention or even cite its August 2024 assessment in the memo.

But the Forest Service argued that it hadn’t violated the Endangered Species Act because it didn’t commit any resources to the project until early 2025 — well after the Fish and Wildlife Service issued its final opinion approving the project so long as the Forest Service agreed to certain mitigation measures.

Additionally, the Forest Service maintains the other agency’s opinion contained “no new information” that wasn’t included in its own assessment and points to mitigation measures included in both agencies’ project directives. Therefore, the Forest Service argued that nothing about the project’s approval would have changed had the agency waited for the final opinion in 2024.

The Forest Service further argued that the project approval wouldn’t change in 2026 even if a court vacated the decision memo and ordered officials to take the final opinion into account before reapproving it. But U.S. District Judge Nancy Rosenstengel didn’t buy that argument.

“An agency cannot evade the jurisdiction of the federal courts merely by promising that it will not change its mind even if a court orders it to reconsider; otherwise, an agency could act as arbitrarily and capriciously as it wished and simply moot every challenge that came its way,” she wrote in her 27-page opinion. “Fortunately, this is not the law.”

Half-complete project

Indiana bats, found primarily in Midwestern states, were first identified as endangered in the mid-1960s. According to the Fish and Wildlife Service, by 2019 the population had declined by half in the five decades since, and has been particularly affected by white-nose syndrome since its 2007 arrival in North America.

While the bats spend winter hibernating in caves and mines, colonies of Indiana bats typically spend the warmer months roosting in the peeling bark of large, often dead trees. The Fish and Wildlife Service’s final opinion advised against the Forest Service doing the logging project between April and October.

But the Forest Service’s project approval contained no directives on timing, and the logging company the agency contracted for the job began its work in mid-August 2025. By the time Rosenstengel issued a temporary restraining order halting the logging project eight days later, the contractor had already thinned out 40 of the 67 acres constituting the project area in rural Pope County along the Ohio River.

Though the judge dissolved her order less than two weeks later, the contractor still hasn’t returned to finish the job in the year since it left. Rosenstengel pointed out the lack of urgency to complete the project undercut the Forest Service’s arguments that vacating its project approval would result in delays that “could reduce wildlife habitat, increase soil erosion” and cause economic harm as the already cut lumber has been laying on the forest floor for a year, possibly decaying.

“In other words, all of the harms contemplated by the Forest Service when discussing vacatur are already accruing through its contractor’s inaction,” she wrote. “The Court has not prevented the Forest Service from requiring its contractor to re-initiate work, from hiring a different contractor, or from finishing the work itself.”

Meanwhile, the Trump administration this summer has moved to change two federal rules that would make it easier to approve logging projects on federal land and national forests like Shawnee, in addition to oil and gas drilling and other development.

In July, the administration finalized a rule weakening the Endangered Species Act, narrowing the definition of “harm,” which has for decades been interpreted broadly to block encroachment on areas where threatened and endangered animals live. Under the new rule, wildlife habitats would be fair game for industry so long as the animals themselves aren’t injured or killed in the process.

In another rule proposed last month, the Forest Service is rolling back a 25-year-old policy blocking road construction in federally owned land, which would open the door to logging and mining activity on tens of millions of acres controlled by the government. The administration maintains the rule has prevented proper maintenance of forest land, increasing wildfire risk. But many environmental groups claim clearing more trees and building more roads would have the opposite effect.

Some areas of Shawnee, including an area near the Pope County logging project, is currently subject to the so-called “Roadless Rule.”

Capitol News Illinois is a nonprofit, nonpartisan news service that distributes state government coverage to hundreds of news outlets statewide. It is funded primarily by the Illinois Press Foundation and the Robert R. McCormick Foundation.

Thousands of Americans die every year from a chronically underreported cause: heat.
August 31, 2026
by Alejandra Borunda
Read article here

As summer heat intensifies because of human-driven climate change, the United States’ official tally of heat-related deaths does not come close to capturing the full human toll. The data feeding into nationwide death counts is collected inconsistently and rarely thoroughly.

The result is a vast undercount of the number of people who die because of heat. And experts say failing to recognize and address this may cost more people their lives.

So NPR set out to create a more comprehensive national count.

The Undercount: The invisible death toll from climate change

Here’s why an Arizona medical examiner is working to track heat-related deaths

We partnered with Boston University to find the total number of deaths influenced by heat every year in the United States. The investigation took two years and involved building a statistical model that assessed nearly every county in the country. The full analysis will soon be published in a scientific journal.

An accurate assessment of the true scope — as well as understanding who is affected, where and why — is critical for developing lifesaving solutions, says Quinn Adams, a research scientist at Boston University’s Center for Climate and Health and the lead partner in the joint NPR-BU investigation.

COMIC: How excessive heat kills and how to stay safe

Beyond the statistical assessment, NPR set out to find people whose deaths slipped through the cracks — those who might not have died if heat hadn’t pushed them beyond their breaking point — to understand exactly how heat could be missed as a factor. We will be bringing you their stories in the coming days.

But first, here are three key takeaways from our research — and why it matters.

How big is the undercount?

The scale of the undercount is significant.

The primary keeper of cause-of-death records in the U.S. is the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). It keeps an annual tally of heat-related deaths in the U.S., which is compiled from state reports based on whether heat is noted on individual death records.

From 2004 to 2018, the national number of heat-related deaths compiled by the CDC was low: on average, around 700 a year. The number has crept up in recent years, averaging around 1,700 but sometimes topping 2,000, as heat risks grow and counting strategies evolve.

But even that number is an underestimate, according to NPR and BU’s analysis. On average between 2018 and 2025, we estimate that some 9,000 deaths each year in the country are impacted by heat — a factor of five higher than the official average over that same period.

Some years, heat-related deaths can top 10,000.

The true figure could be even higher, says Adams, because of some limitations in the data and the conservative nature of our analysis.


The dangers from heat are growing every year because of human-caused climate change. The heat wave season has extended by a month and a half since the 1960s. In 50 of the country’s biggest cities, the number of heat waves has doubled since the 1980s. Heat domes that settle over the country regularly expose tens of millions of Americans — sometimes well over 100 million at a time — to dangerous heat.

“The frequency and the duration of these heat events has been expanding very rapidly,” says Adams. “That’s what we can expect moving forward into the next few decades: having more heat waves, and having them last longer, and having them be more intense such that people don’t get the escape from the heat that they need to physiologically reset.”

The reasons for the undercount are complex. But a crucial issue, says doctor and researcher Sameed Khatana of the University of Pennsylvania’s Perelman School of Medicine, is that heat’s role in a death is often masked by other more obvious causes of death, like a heart attack.

“Heat is what people often call the silent killer, compared to things like hurricanes and typhoons,” says Khatana.

Climate Why certain medications can increase your risk in the heat

Heat, he says, can often be the trigger that pushes someone’s health condition — like cardiovascular disease — from manageable to fatal. “The heart starts beating faster and harder,” he explains, to shunt blood to the skin to cool the body. And eventually, if someone’s heart is already weak, it may not be able “to keep up with the demand that was required of it,” he says. That can lead to something like a heart attack.

But often, Khatana says, because heat leaves no obvious mark behind for doctors or coroners to examine, the cause of death gets marked down only as a heart attack. Heat isn’t noted on the death certificate, and therefore it is not included in the tallies reported to the municipality, the state and eventually the federal recordkeepers.

Such omissions are understandable, Khatana says. But repeated thousands of times, in all parts of the country, they create a blind spot that obscures the scale of heat’s danger.

National risks — even in unexpected places

The NPR and BU investigation found that heat is killing people in nearly every corner of the country.

Our analysis finds that Florida and Texas have the most heat-related deaths overall. That is in part due to their large populations. But those states remain among the most impacted even when adjusted for their size.

But the losses are not limited to states historically considered hot.

Source: CDC’s WONDER database; ERA5-Land weather database

Our model finds that more than 100 people die from heat-related causes in Michigan every year, 10 times the official reported numbers. In Massachusetts, official records say only about 5 people die from heat each year, but our estimate suggests that number could be more than 60.

And in Florida, the difference is even more dramatic: We estimate more than 1,900 deaths each year, about 40 times as many as reported.

Heat can be particularly dangerous for people who are not already used to it. And in many parts of the country that were not historically hot, infrastructure to keep cool is less common. Nearly all homes in Alabama have some form of air conditioning, for example. But in Washington state, only 53% of homes do. In Maine, 70% do. Yet the risks of heat exist, and are growing, in those states as well as those where it is a more entrenched problem.

Counts are getting more accurate — but not everywhere

The official national counts from the CDC have trended upward in recent years, rising from an average of roughly 700 between 2004 and 2018 to about 1,700 between 2018 and 2025.

That increase is due in large part to two things: Heat is simply getting worse, according to the most recent National Climate Assessment, and also there is better counting of heat-related deaths in some parts of the country.

Arizona’s Maricopa County — home to Phoenix — has developed sophisticated protocols for sussing out the subtle influences of heat on people’s deaths. Maricopa County trains “death investigators” to look for signs of heat stress, such as asking about the state of the deceased’s air conditioning system, their ability to pay electric bills to run ACs, their use of medications that increase heat sensitivity, and more.

But Maricopa County is something of an outlier. In contrast, the counties home to Los Angeles and Houston report very few heat-related deaths. Yet our model finds hundreds of people likely die in each of those counties because of heat each year.

Los Angeles recognizes the problem, says Nichole Quick, the chief science officer at the Los Angeles County Department of Public Health. The county’s official numbers “are vast undercounts,” Quick says. “The true impact of this is higher than I think a lot of the numbers show.”

Short Wave Summers are getting hotter. Here’s how experts say to cope with it

But solving the counting problem isn’t simple. It took Maricopa County years to fine-tune its strategies for more accurately assessing heat’s impact on deaths. And many doctors who certify deaths in emergency rooms and hospitals, or for patients who die at home, don’t have protocols for confidently identifying heat impacts, says Khatana.

Until such issues are addressed, says Adams, the undercount will remain, and heat’s true toll will remain obscured — making it harder for policymakers, planners and families to understand the urgency to protect themselves.

“Most people do not see themselves as vulnerable to heat. They’re like, ‘Oh, that’s someone else. It’s not me,'” says Adams. But the data is clear: Heat can take anyone, anywhere in the country. “But then, you know, push comes to shove and it actually is you.”

NPR will be continuing this coverage in the coming days, exploring why deaths slip through the cracks and how lives can be saved.

Credits

Nick McMillan contributed to this report.

This reporting was supported by a Nova Institute for Health Media Fellowship. It was also supported by the Dennis A. Hunt Fund for Health Journalism.