You are here
Climate Change News
Russia justifies fossil gas use by citing contentious COP28 loophole
Russia’s new climate plan justifies the use of natural gas as a “transition fuel” by referencing the controversial loophole that it pushed to have included in the COP28 pledge on shifting away from fossil fuels.
In a landmark agreement at the Dubai climate summit two years, governments agreed to call on each other to work on “transitioning away from fossil fuels in energy systems” as one of eight global efforts to fight climate change.
The hard-won agreement followed years of campaigning by climate activists and pro-climate action governments, and was hailed as “the beginning of the end” for the fossil fuel era by UN climate chief Simon Stiell.
But in a concession to some countries that were led by Russia – the world’s second-biggest gas producer, the COP28 agreement included a paragraph recognising that “transitional fuels can play a role in facilitating the energy transition while ensuring energy security”.
After it was agreed, Antigua and Barbuda negotiator Diann Black-Layne called it a “dangerous loophole” because natural gas is a fossil fuel “we need to transition away from”.
This year, all the signatories of the 2015 Paris Agreement are due to submit their emissions reduction targets up to 2035, and must say how their targets have “been informed by” the COP28 agreement.
Gas as “transition fuel”Russia’s new climate plan says it is compatible with paragraph 28 of the COP28 agreement – which includes the language on transitioning away from fossil fuels – because Russia “continues to contribute to the global effort to reduce greenhouse gas emissions through national efforts to the greatest possible extent”.
It adds that the transition should be “based on independence and freedom of choice, the technological neutrality in designing the composition of energy mix and implementing climate policies in the energy sector”.
It then cites the COP28 language around transitional fuels to say Russia “uses natural gas as a transition fuel on the way towards a low-carbon economy” and gas “is the most environmentally friendly type of fuel among the types of conventional heat generation”.
While burning gas for power releases less emissions directly than burning coal, whether or not it emits less overall depends mostly on how much gas leaks as it is transported from where it is produced to where it is consumed, energy experts say.
Andreas Sieber, associate director of policy and campaigns at renewable energy advocacy group 350.org, said Russia was “wilfully misreading the global stocktake”.
“Rebranding methane-heavy, flare-ridden gas as a ‘transition fuel’ is spin, not science [which] props up a regime whose political economy runs on petro-rents and aggression,” Sieber told Climate Home News, adding “any credible transition runs on renewables and efficiency, not on Russia’s gas”.
Russian climate envoy Ruslan Edelgeriev told a UN climate summit last week the country’s commitment to reaching net zero by 2060 was firm and it “has moved from strategy to practical implementation”.
Russia is not the only government to play down the COP28 language on transitioning away from fossil fuels. Shortly after COP28, the Saudi energy minister said the agreement in Dubai was just an “a la carte menu” from which governments could choose.
And several African countries including Nigeria have set out plans to boost the use of fossil gas as a “transition fuel” in their updated Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs).
“Unambitious” targetRussia’s plan aims to reduce emissions to 33%-35% below their 1990 levels by 2035. This adds to existing targets to cut emissions by 30% on 1990 levels by 2030 and reach net zero – when the country emits no more than it absorbs – by 2060.
Russia’s emissions dropped by a quarter after the Soviet Union collapsed in the 1990s, making percentage reductions on 1990 levels much more achievable. US President Donald Trump noted this in a recent UN speech, saying “Russia was given an old standard that was easy to meet – 1990 standard”.
Climate Action Tracker (CAT), a nonprofit which assesses governments’ climate plans and policies, said Russia’s new 2035 target “does not increase ambition beyond business as usual” because Russia’s current policies already put it on course to cut emissions 35% by 2035.
CAT said that is at odds with a Paris Agreement principle that targets should reflect the “highest possible ambition”. “Russia’s 2035 target not only fails to reflect highest ambition, but does not increase ambition at all”, CAT said in an analysis on its website.
Russia says the target is in line with the Paris Agreement’s goal to hold a temperature increase to 2C and pursue efforts to limit it to 1.5C. CAT said, however, that it was only compatible with warming of 4C or more.
Under its climate plan, Russia says it will cut overall emissions through gas, nuclear, hydropower, renewables, carbon capture and storage and hydrogen. It will also aim to reduce the emissions which come from producing coal and oil, by capturing and selling gas rather than burning it as a waste product and by detecting and fixing pipeline leaks.
CAT also accused Russia of taking too much credit in its carbon accounting for the emissions absorbed by its huge forests. UN guidelines say countries should only take credit for forests which they actively manage, giving governments discretion to decide which land falls into this category.
Russia claims it manages nearly two-thirds of its vast forests, a percentage CAT said was “inflated”. Other heavily forested nations such as Guyana – which claims to be “carbon negative” – have been criticised by climate campaigners for similarly large assumptions about how much forest they manage.
The post Russia justifies fossil gas use by citing contentious COP28 loophole appeared first on Climate Home News.
NGOs urge Brazil to prevent fossil fuel capture of COP30 climate summit
Brazil’s COP30 presidency must do more to protect the UN climate talks from the “unchecked” influence of the fossil fuel industry and other high-emitting businesses driving the climate crisis, more than 200 civil society groups said in a letter published on Wednesday.
Campaigners have called on the organisers of this year’s summit to lead by example and commit to a “polluter-free“ conference by banning sponsorship from corporations whose activities drive climate change and by ending their partnership with PR firm Edelman, among other measures.
As Climate Home News previously revealed, Edelman won a $835,000 contract to help Brazil’s COP30 team with its international media strategy for the UN talks while also working with Shell, which is investing in new oil and gas production in the South American country and beyond.
COP30 PR firm found to be “uniquely reliant” on fossil fuel clients
“For years, major corporations – especially in the fossil fuel and other heavily polluting sectors – have undermined climate action through intense lobbying, including at the UN,” said Lien Vandamme, a senior campaigner at the Center for International Environmental Law (CIEL), one of the letter’s signatories. “Reforming the UN climate talks is more urgent than ever – COPs cannot continue as corporate trade shows.”
Tackling corporate influenceAlmost 1,800 fossil fuel lobbyists were given access to last year’s COP29 talks in Azerbaijan, according to analysis by the Kick Big Polluters Out coalition – more than the government delegates of the 10 most climate-vulnerable countries combined.
Amid growing pressure from civil society to tackle corporate influence on the talks, the UN climate change body in September introduced new transparency guidelines giving COP observers the option to disclose who is paying for their participation at the annual summits.
But campaigners want further actions to shield the talks from corporate representatives who, they say, have “sabotaged climate progress through aggressive lobbying, disinformation, and glossy PR campaigns”.
In the letter endorsed by 229 non-governmental organisations (NGOs) across the globe, they urge the COP30 presidency to advance the establishment of an “accountability framework” that should define what constitutes a conflict of interest at UN climate talks – and how such cases should be addressed by setting clear “rules of engagement”.
Business invited to BelémThe letter was organised by members of the Kick Big Polluters Out coalition in response to an earlier missive from COP30 president André Corrêa do Lago, inviting business leaders to show up in the Amazonian city of Belém this November.
Despite the logistical challenges in the host city, including the sky-high cost of accommodation, he urged companies “to attend and engage through solutions, partnerships, investments, and ideas” so that COP30 could become “the world’s largest marketplace of transformational climate solutions”.
But campaigners criticised Corrêa do Lago’s words, saying his overture to the business world felt removed from the reality that polluting companies, and their enablers, are directly responsible for the climate crisis.
“It’s unacceptable that the COP30 president has invited corporations to the table without explicitly addressing the inevitable risks of greenwashing and conflicts of interest,” said CIEL’s Vandamme.
The post NGOs urge Brazil to prevent fossil fuel capture of COP30 climate summit appeared first on Climate Home News.
Zimbabwe forest carbon megaproject generated millions of junk credits
More than half of the 27 million carbon credits produced by one of the world’s largest offsetting projects did not correspond to actual emission reductions, leading carbon registry Verra has said following a two-year review of Zimbabwe’s Kariba forest protection initiative.
Verra is now seeking compensation for the millions of “excess” credits from Carbon Green Investments (CGI) – the project’s developer – after the registry’s technical analysis found the threat to the forest had been overstated in the project’s original forecast.
The Kariba REDD+ project, which aims to protect an area 10 times the size of New York City, has long faced accusations by several media outlets and carbon market analysts of exaggerating its climate credentials through flawed carbon accounting and of failing to provide promised benefits to local communities.
The conservation project stretches across national parks, forest reserves and wildlife corridors along the southern shore of Lake Kariba in the Zambezi River basin in northern Zimbabwe.
Dozens of big companies, including Gucci, Volkswagen, Nestlé and Dutch electricity firm Greenchoice, bought millions of Kariba’s credits and used them to offset part of their own emissions and back up various green assertions.
Overstated deforestation riskAccording to a report by Bloomberg, the project generated more than $100 million in revenue after being set up over a decade ago by South Pole, a major Swiss carbon credits broker, and CGI, which is run by a Zimbabwean businessman. South Pole walked away from Kariba in late 2023 when Verra suspended the project and began an internal review following an investigation by The New Yorker magazine.
Nearly two years later, Verra announced last week that its review had found 57% of Kariba’s nearly 27 million credits were issued “in excess”. That is because the actual deforestation observed in a reference area chosen by Kariba’s project developers to predict how much CO2 the scheme would conserve was “significantly lower” than initially estimated, Verra said.
This calculation is known as the baseline against which a project’s performance is assessed. Critics have repeatedly questioned the accounting method and said flawed methodologies compromise the integrity of carbon offsets. Previous studies by independent rating agencies suggested Kariba may have produced as many as 30 times more credits than it should have done by exaggerating the threat to forests that were never really at risk.
Compensation processVerra said last week that, despite finding them worthless, the millions of “excess” credits already used by buyers would remain valid. But, at the same time, the carbon registry has requested CGI to compensate for them by buying and cancelling an equivalent number of credits from other projects.
Verra “received a positive response related to this process” from CGI, a spokesperson subsequently told Climate Home News, without giving further details.
CGI’s founder, Zimbabwean tycoon Steve Wentzel, did not reply to a request for comment. In an online statement, CGI said it remains dedicated to Kariba’s “mission of forest conservation” and “committed to continue working toward resolutions that uphold the highest standards”.
The company also said it had asked Verra for a “moratorium” on the compensation process until it reviews the registry’s carbon assessment.
Will pricing emissions from flying affect tourism? Not if it’s done right
Separately, Verra also invited the holders of nearly 5 million Kariba credits that have been purchased but not yet used for offsetting to “voluntarily” eliminate those credits, which in that case would be counted towards the compensation.
South Pole, CGI’s former partner in the scheme, said last week it had asked Verra to cancel 2.5 million credits it still held “to help address the discrepancies in issued credits and uphold the environmental integrity of the project”.
‘Big concerns’ remainBut Jonathan Crook, at the nonprofit Carbon Market Watch (CMW), said Verra’s handling of the Kariba case leaves many questions unanswered and raises big concerns.
“It is not clear what, if anything concrete, will happen if CGI refuses this request [for compensation], thereby raising real questions over whether anyone will actually be held liable, which would be a shockingly inappropriate outcome to this scandal,” he added.
Verra has a patchy track record in obtaining compensation from discredited projects. Nearly 2 million phantom credits linked to failed methane-cutting rice cultivation projects in China have yet to be paid back more than a year since Verra shut down the schemes and sought recompense from their developers.
As Climate Home revealed last year, energy giant Shell was directly involved in the projects and used the majority of the credits to offset – on paper – real greenhouse gas emissions created by its vast fossil fuel operations.
Climate Home understands that Verra is still pursuing compensation for the excess credits from the companies involved in the rice cultivation projects, but there is no fixed timeline for the process to be completed.
Questions over permanenceCMW’s Crook also raised concerns over the future integrity of the remaining 11.6 million Kariba credits deemed by Verra’s review to be of good quality. An underlying principle of REDD+ projects is that carbon stored in forests must be maintained over a long period of time – up to a century – to reliably offset the release of fossil carbon.
But, with the Kariba project no longer registered with Verra, any carbon supposedly conserved through the scheme now “faces a significant risk of being re-released into the atmosphere over the coming years and decades without any clear solution to remedy the situation”, Crook added.
More than 5 million credits from the Kariba project had been kept in a so-called buffer pool, an insurance fund with credits set aside for unexpected losses in stored carbon.
Verra said it had decided to “take pre-emptive action” and cancel all those credits. Additionally, a monitoring system will track deforestation in the project area in the years ahead and extra credits will be cancelled if observed forest loss goes beyond Kariba’s contributions to the buffer pool, the registry said.
“We are following our processes to ensure integrity and deliver what is right for the climate and communities,” the Verra spokesperson added.
The post Zimbabwe forest carbon megaproject generated millions of junk credits appeared first on Climate Home News.
Will pricing emissions from flying affect tourism? Not if it’s done right
Emma Fenton is senior director of climate diplomacy at Opportunity Green, an NGO working to unlock the opportunities from tackling climate change using law, economics, and policy.
Last week, the world’s governments came together in Montreal for the triennial assembly of the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO), just as aviation’s climate impact is coming under sharper scrutiny.
Despite aviation contributing 4% of global heating to date, there are no effective measures to drive emissions reductions – and the industry is expected to keep growing. Passenger traffic is forecast to double over the next two decades, and as a result, the sector is projected to be responsible for as much as 22% of annual global CO2 emissions by 2050.
For too long the aviation industry has held a privileged position in how it accounts for its impacts. Just 1% of the world’s population is responsible for more than 50% of aviation emissions, highlighting the profound injustice at the heart of the sector’s operations.
But without a serious attempt to fairly price – and therefore curb – this sector’s insatiable appetite for fossil fuels, any progress made in decarbonising other sectors will be undone by the aviation industry’s refusal to join the club.
As China and EU disappoint, prospects of meeting 1.5C climate target fade
Enter ICAO’s flagship ‘emissions reduction’ scheme CORSIA, which stands for Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation. CORSIA may give the industry a prop when it is quizzed on decarbonisation.
But in reality it is ineffectual, with a baseline threshold for ‘acceptable’ emissions set at 85% of the highest-ever level of emissions recorded for international aviation to date. Clearly a scheme that doesn’t bring all aviation emissions into scope creates unnecessary loopholes for the industry.
And all too often we hear the same excuse from the industry – if we were to price aviation emissions, it would create unmanageable economic consequences, particularly for tourism-dependent climate-vulnerable countries. It also cites a lack of fuel availability as a rationale for not taking any decisive action.
But neither of these arguments fly.
Distribution of costs and revenues is keyLatest research by Opportunity Green shows that – while the effect on tourism must unquestionably be a consideration when pricing emissions from aviation – the impacts can be mitigated in how you distribute both the costs and the revenues from your pricing system.
Firstly, those causing the most emissions should pay the greatest share. First-class passengers can be responsible for up to four times the emissions of those in economy seats, so the price of emissions should be borne by those who are causing the most.
Secondly, the pricing mechanism itself can act as a market signal and play a vital role in bringing investment certainty for the development of truly sustainable fuels for aviation. This market signal would help to create the fiscal enabling environment that will unlock private-sector investment to accelerate the uptake of e-fuels (those that are derived from green hydrogen).
And finally, where an emissions price has caused an economic impact in a tourism-dependent country, this can be compensated for through the equitable distribution of the revenues raised by the emissions pricing mechanism. This means that any losses incurred by climate-vulnerable and developing countries can be addressed as a priority.
Climate legal obligations apply to aviationTo make a meaningful step-change in ambition and pace on decarbonisation, we must also see states recognise the growing body of international legal obligations on climate change. Recent opinions from the International Court of Justice, International Tribunal for the Law of the Sea, and Inter-American Court of Human Rights all confirm that states have binding obligations to reduce emissions, including from international aviation.
ICAO must align its governance with these legal standards to remain credible.
While hostile moves from the likes of the US and Saudi Arabia have attempted to shake the founding principles of multilateralism, we have also seen states come together in solidarity to push for ambition in tackling climate change.
So far this year, we have seen an historic agreement made at the International Maritime Organisation in April, and a pioneering group of countries agree to implement solidarity levies on luxury aviation, demonstrating how climate action is both morally essential and economically effective.
Coalition set sights on taxing luxury air travel to fund climate action
It was 2022 when ICAO adopted its long-term global aspirational goal for international aviation to achieve net zero carbon emissions by 2050 in support of the Paris Agreement’s 1.5C goal. Since then, we have seen no credible action to start moving the sector in the right direction.
Now is the time to confront aviation’s free pass and show how a well-designed emissions price could not only cut emissions but also support the very countries most at risk from climate change.
Unless its member states act in courage, solidarity and with the urgency that is demanded by the climate crisis, ICAO’s long-term goal won’t even make it off the runway.
The post Will pricing emissions from flying affect tourism? Not if it’s done right appeared first on Climate Home News.
In new forest finance plan, 34 nations endorse Brazil’s rainforest fund
Launching a plan to unlock much-needed finance to protect rainforests, a group of 34 countries – including both developing and donor nations – have backed Brazil’s proposal for a new rainforest fund, set to be launched at COP30 in Belém.
The Forest & Climate Leaders’ Partnership (FCLP) – a coalition formed at COP27 in Egypt to raise ambition for forest protection – unveiled an action plan in New York this week. It proposes six solutions to reverse forest loss by 2030, among them the creation of Brazil’s Tropical Forest Forever Facility (TFFF).
The TFFF would invest in financial markets and use the expected returns to pay forest-rich nations to halt deforestation. It aims to raise initial capital of $25bn in public funds and $100bn from private investors. Brazil is the only country to have pledged money so far, announcing a $1bn investment this week.
Guyana’s Minister of Natural Resources Vickram Outar Bharrat said at the New York event that the new six-point forest finance plan “underlines that real solutions are already within our reach, with a menu of options that can move forward together at speed”.
André Aquino, economy and environment advisor at Brazil’s Ministry of Environment and Climate Change, said the country has made “significant progress” on finalising the details of the TFFF proposal and has “sprinted” to launch the fund at COP30.
Its design is mostly concluded, Aquino said at the finance plan launch. “There are ongoing conversations on some aspects. Basically, we move now into full-fledged investment mode,” he added.
The countries behind the broader roadmap include forest nations that could potentially benefit from the TFFF and other financing measures, including the Democratic Republic of Congo, Colombia and Vietnam, among others. It also includes wealthy donor governments such as Japan, Canada, UK and the US.
Despite the US’s roll-back of international climate finance under the Trump administration, Brazilian President Lula da Silva told journalists in New York this week he is “optimistic” about landing an American contribution to the TFFF.
The TFFF has already been endorsed by the eight South American countries that are home to the Amazon rainforest, the largest forest basin in the world. The BRICS group of large emerging economies have also voiced their support.
But while some wealthy countries – among them the UK, Germany, Norway and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) – have engaged in the design of the TFFF, funding pledges have yet to follow. The Brazilian government aims to sign a letter of intent with donors at COP30 in November.
UK climate minister Katie White said at the event that establishing the TFFF and scaling up forest carbon markets are among the country’s priorities. “Rather than announcing lots of new plans, we want to work with existing initiatives, which can make the biggest impact in the smallest time,” she added.
Unlocking finance for rainforests by COP30A new analysis by the UN Environment Programme (UNEP), published during Climate Week NYC, estimates the annual funding gap for forest protection at around $67 billion. The roadmap launched by the FCLP presents six potential solutions to quickly ramp up forest finance by COP30.
Among them are a scale-up of state-level forest carbon credits and debt-for-nature swaps, which free up debt repayments for ecosystem protection. Taken together, the proposed solutions could raise as much as $50bn a year, proponents say.
The most potentially profitable option, according to the roadmap, would be enabling local communities to produce more sustainable products from the forest, such as wood products and organic foods. This “bioeconomy” approach could raise up to $15bn every year to protect forests, experts say.
The funding roadmap estimates that a fully operational TFFF could raise up to $4 billion by 2030. The fund’s concept note claims it could pay countries up to $2.8 billion annually.
At COP28 in Dubai, all countries adopted a target of ramping up efforts to stop and reverse deforestation and forest degradation by 2030. But monitoring shows the world is losing forests at “frightening” record speed – not only due to humans cutting down trees but also because of massive wildfires amplified by global warming.
Developing countries, meanwhile, have argued that high government debt levels, limited access to multilateral banks, and unpredictable payments from donors make financing forest protection difficult.
The post In new forest finance plan, 34 nations endorse Brazil’s rainforest fund appeared first on Climate Home News.
As China and EU disappoint, prospects of meeting 1.5C climate target fade
This week’s pledges by the EU, China and other large countries for emissions cuts by 2035 are not ambitious enough to get global climate targets back on track, climate experts say.
With the US withdrawing from the Paris Agreement and President Donald Trump pouring scorn on climate action in his speech to the UN General Assembly on Tuesday, climate campaigners had hoped to see the European Union and China in particular step up. But many were disappointed by their announcements at the UN climate summit in New York on Wednesday.
“The US is absent. China and the EU have not raised each other’s ambition enough and even Australia, which is bidding to host COP31, has presented a weak target,” said Tracy Carty, a climate change politics specialist from Greenpeace International.
Chinese President Xi Jinping told the summit that China – the world’s top emitter – would cut emissions by between 7% and 10% by 2035 against peak levels. Its previous goal was for emissions to peak by around 2030.
Xi also appeared to make a dig at Trump’s climate scepticism. “While some country is acting against it, the international community should stay focused on the right direction,” he said.
His comments were echoed by European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, who said “the clean transition is moving on” and “Europe will stay the course”.
“Timid” Chinese goalBut some climate change experts said the substance of their announcements was underwhelming and did not match their rhetoric, calling China’s goal “timid” and too easy to meet given the country’s rapid rollout of renewables and electric vehicles.
Von der Leyen, meanwhile, announced only that the EU’s 2035 reduction target would be somewhere between 66% and 72% on 1990 levels – unable to be more specific because EU member states have yet to agree a target, with several pushing to weaken the European Commission’s ambitions.
A few big countries including Nigeria and Pakistan announced new targets. Nigeria said it would aim to cut emissions 32% below 2018 levels by 2035 – with four-fifths of this target dependent on foreign help. Pakistan will aim for 17% below a business-as-usual projection by 2035.
But many other major economies, among them India, Indonesia, Mexico, Saudi Arabia, South Africa and South Korea, have yet to file their plans – despite an end of September deadline for them to be included in a UN progress report.
“Dangerously off track”The nonprofit research group World Resources Institute (WRI) calculates that 53 governments – representing a quarter of the world’s emissions – have filed their NDCs, though that figure did not include China or the EU. The group’s CEO, Ani Dasgupta, said the new NDCs “do not put us anywhere near on track for a safe future”.
“The lack of ambition so far from most major emitters, barring a few, underscores the immense political challenge countries face in transforming their entire economy. Yet vulnerable countries continue to step up with bold climate leadership,” Dasgupta said.
Greenpeace’s Carty agreed that the NDCs are “dangerously off track and without a serious shift, we’ll soar past 1.5C”.
At ActionAid, Teresa Anderson accused governments of “running scared from the corporations that care only for short-term profits over long-term survival of the planet”.
A few voices were more positive about the new round of NDCs. Gina McCarthy, former climate adviser to then U.S. President Joe Biden, said the America Is All In coalition that she co-chairs “applauds world leaders submitting updated climate plans that align with the targets of the Paris Agreement”, and there were bright spots in leaders’ speeches.
Solar booms and legal movesAnnouncing Pakistan’s new NDC, Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif described how solar energy has grown seven-fold since 2021 as Pakistanis embrace rooftop solar panels to keep their lights on during frequent power cuts. Similar solar booms are happening in several blackout-afflicted African nations.
And government decisions on the NDCs may not be the final word. Leaders of the Marshall Islands and Tuvalu – both Pacific island nations that are among the most vulnerable to climate change – warned their fellow politicians that a recent International Court of Justice (ICJ) advisory opinion could mean courts force them to ramp up their climate targets and policies.
“Fellow leaders and especially those of you from the G20, if the Marshall Islands can deliver an ambitious NDC, so can you,” said Marshall Islands President Hilda Heine. “In fact, as the ICJ decision confirms, you are legally required to. You must deliver stronger NDCs that can meet 1.5C and can say how you will transition away from fossil fuels.”
On Monday, Ralph Regenvanu, the climate minister of fellow Pacific island nation Vanuatu, announced his country was drafting a UN General Assembly resolution to turn the ICJ advisory opinion into “political action”.
Regenvanu said individual governments opposed to the step would not be able to block it because the UN General Assembly votes by majority.
“There is no veto power to block this resolution going through,” Regenvanu said.
The post As China and EU disappoint, prospects of meeting 1.5C climate target fade appeared first on Climate Home News.
Why COP30 needs a cover decision to succeed
Andreas Sieber is the associate director of global policy and campaigns at 350.org.
It is no accident that the COP30 presidency convenes consultations on Thursday, a day after the UN Climate Summit. Wednesday’s speeches offered proof that, even amid geopolitical upheaval, the Paris Agreement still drives momentum. At the same time, the hard truth was clear well before the summit: the pledges do not add up.
COP30’s credibility rests on how it confronts this ambition gap. Attempts to spin COP30 as a success without such a response seem hollow. If COP30 must respond to this ambition gap, a cover decision emerges as the most credible path forward.
COP30 brings the ambition cycle of the Global Stocktake (GST), launched at COP28, to a close. The ambition gap is often framed through the temperature threshold, but it runs deeper, encompassing adaptation, loss and damage, and finance, all of which are falling dangerously short.
Countries trail COP30 clash over global response to shortfall in national climate plans
A cover decision is surely not the only marker of success: the Belém Action Mechanism on Just Transition, an ambitious Baku-to-Belém roadmap, and a Global Goal on Adaptation are just a few among other high-stakes deliverables. But it is one decisive piece of the puzzle.
Breaking through entrenched negotiationsWhy do we need one in the first place? Anyone who sat through the UAE Dialogue or Mitigation Work Programme earlier this year, will have more than serious doubts that these rooms can overcome their entrenched dynamics to deliver adequate outcomes, let alone allow the broader dealmaking required.
That is why a cover decision emerges as the most credible way to confront the ambition gap head-on – and here it is the Brazilian presidency that holds the pen.
A cover decision is no magic bullet to solve negotiation challenges, but it offers the best-placed procedural vehicle to balance different elements of the ambition package, allowing a race to the top instead of zero-sum trade-offs.
At the last COP, we saw mitigation pitted against finance, and without real commitments – especially credible new finance from wealthy countries – that history risks repeating itself. Process alone is no guarantee of success, but a misguided process is a recipe for failure. It’s also noteworthy that the COP29 presidency, due to a lack of political will or misguided strategy, refused to engage with the idea of a cover decision.
Instead of discussing several crunch issues across different rooms, a cover decision can bring topics together in the same room and the same text.
What should a cover decision includeA cover decision can anchor critical finance outcomes that otherwise lack a formal home, from the Baku-to-Belém roadmap to a meaningful scale-up in adaptation finance, with tripling as the obvious first step.
This is not about creating a procedural parking lot; it is about giving key outcomes real political and procedural weight. Linking the roadmap’s $1.3 trillion mobilisation goal for 2035 to concrete donor commitments through a cover decision would turn aspiration into accountability.
Responding to the ambition gap will also require initiatives that target the sectors driving the crisis. This could mean establishing a dedicated working group on phasing out fossil fuels, anchored in equity and 1.5°C consistent timelines, with a mandate that connects its work to COP31 under the incoming Presidency.
Brazil’s environment minister suggests roadmap to end fossil fuels at COP30
It could also mean reinforcing and expanding the COP29 Grids Initiative, this time with concrete public finance commitments attached. Both initiatives could be launched through presidential declarations and then captured and formalised within a cover decision.
Finally, a cover decision must also speak beyond the negotiating halls. It should respond with grave concern to the latest NDC synthesis report, and it should build on messages from the landmark ICJ advisory opinion and the leaders’ summit to signal that the world’s governments understand the urgency of the moment.
Instruments of real progressCritics may dismiss cover decisions as the epitome of empty words: procedural theatre about brackets and commas, offering conversation to those who are excited about “the process”, conversation rather than consequences. At times, cover decisions can be sprawling, jargon-laden texts that feel detached from real-world impact, such as in 2019. Yet history shows they can also be instruments of real progress.
It was a cover decision in Durban in 2011 that launched the Ad Hoc Working Group (ADP), the negotiating track that ultimately delivered the Paris Agreement.
Since then, their character has evolved. With the Paris rulebook now in place, cover decisions have increasingly driven forward momentum.
The closing plenary of the Cop26 climate talks in Glasgow (Photo: Kiara Worth/ UN Climate Change /Flickr) The closing plenary of the Cop26 climate talks in Glasgow (Photo: Kiara Worth/ UN Climate Change /Flickr)In Glasgow, a cover decision broke new ground by naming a fossil fuel for the first time, calling for the “phase down” of coal. However imperfect – singling out coal was very convenient for European countries and the United States at the time – this opened the door to COP28’s landmark outcome: a collective commitment to transition away from all fossil fuels and to triple renewable energy.
One could argue that the COP28 Global Stocktake decision was not technically a cover decision, but in practice it served as one. And in Egypt, a cover decision launched both the Just Transition Work Programme and the loss and damage fund, breakthroughs that continue to shape the process today. As we look ahead to COP30, where the Belém Action Mechanism on Just Transition is on the table, history suggests that a strong cover decision could again prove decisive.
COP30 and the Brazilian presidency will be remembered for whether (and how) it responds to the ambition gap in this decisive decade. A strong cover decision remains the most credible tool to anchor that response.
The post Why COP30 needs a cover decision to succeed appeared first on Climate Home News.
Nigeria gives fossil gas a bigger role as “transition fuel” in climate plan
Nigeria has joined several other African countries in boosting planned use of fossil gas as a “transition fuel” in its updated climate plan, reflecting the continent’s struggles to quickly ramp up renewable energy output.
The West African nation aims to have 17 gigawatts (GW) of gas-fired power capacity in 2035 – nearly double the current level and more than the target for solar and hydro power combined, according to its new nationally determined contribution (NDC) plan.
Announcing the plan at the United Nations on Wednesday, Nigeria’s vice-president Kashim Shettima said gas was a “cleaner fuel”. Specifically, the NDC justifies it as a cleaner alternative to coal in electricity generation and as a replacement for diesel in transport.
Michael Ivenso, energy director at Nigeria’s National Council on Climate Change (NCCC), told Climate Home News that Nigeria has adopted the strategy because the transition to clean energy sources “will not happen overnight [and requires] a just, gradual and practical approach”.
Nigeria – Africa’s biggest oil producer – needs “time and money to build out a sufficient installed base of renewable energy sources to support growth and development”, Ivenso added.
With plans to cut emissions by 32% from 2018 levels by 2035, the country requires $337 billion to mitigate and adapt to climate change, the climate plan says, with a fifth of the money expected to come from domestic sources, including carbon markets. The rest will come from international funding, it said in the NDC 3.0 submitted to the UN earlier this week. Shettima said the plan was Nigeria’s “highest ambition level to date”.
“Risky strategy”According to Nigeria’s plan, greenhouse gas emissions from the natural gas industry will be reduced by phasing out routine gas flaring and reducing leaks.
Nigeria, which is plagued by unreliable and patchy power supplies, has a fossil gas reserve of about 210 trillion cubic feet, which could last for up to 93 years, the government says.
President Bola Tinubu’s administration is actively exploring the fuel’s potential, courting investors and unveiling gas infrastructure across the country. After his inauguration in 2023, Tinubu said his government would seek to add value to the nation’s gas assets, saying “it is all about growing the pie so that Nigerians will benefit”.
Kashim Shettima, Vice President of Nigeria, addresses the UN Climate Summit 2025 on Wednesday (UN Photo/Manuel Elias)But critics say continuing to invest in natural gas could prove counterproductive, and more costly, in the long run – as well as making it harder for African countries to meet their commitments under the Paris Agreement.
“It is unfortunate that the Nigerian government is still planning so much fossil gas in its energy mix,” said Sofia Gonzales-Zuñiga, a senior policy analyst at the global institute Climate Analytics.
This is “a risky strategy that could either lead to stranded assets, or lock it into ongoing fossil fuel emissions, when it could be reaping the benefits of much cheaper – and cleaner – renewable energy”, she added.
Those concerns were echoed by Zainab Aliyu, a research consultant at the Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty Initiative, who said Nigeria’s decision to keep betting on fossil gas was tying it to “a volatile industry at a time when the world is moving away from fossil fuels”.
Asked about the NDC’s proposal to scale up the use of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) for cooking, Rajneesh Bhuee, manager of the “Stop Funding Gas Campaign” at the NGO Recourse, said treating LPG as a “clean solution risks entrenching fossil dependence in households and exposing low-income communities to global price volatility”.
While Nigeria aims to increase gas use in the short-term, the Beyond Oil and Gas Alliance (BOGA) announced this week that it has funded an $800,000 programme in partnership with the NCCC to research the risks and opportunities of the energy transition and “support Nigeria’s efforts to transition its economy away from oil and gas”.
The programme will research the energy transition’s implications for Nigeria’s oil and gas revenues, its impact on workers and “develop policy options to support Nigeria’s economic diversification and long-term structural transition away from oil and gas dependency”, BOGA said.
The head of the NCCC Omotenioye Majekodunmi said Nigeria faces a “delicate balance” between “our current reliance on fossil fuels and our long-term goal of net zero by 2060”. The NDC lays the foundations for “gradual but steady progress”, she said, and the BOGA programme is “is a signal of our commitment to explore pathways for economic diversification and a just, orderly and inclusive transition.”
Africa’s “transition fuel”Nigeria is not the only African country that has added intentions to ramp up natural gas use in the new cycle of UN NDCs.
Angola’s climate plan says it plans to use natural gas systems to progressively replace diesel generators in industry, saying that will drive down emissions significantly.
Similarly, Zimbabwe’s NDC said it will ramp up a new gas-fired power plant until 2036 as “although it is a fossil fuel, natural gas can replace coal and reduce emissions considerably”.
Earlier this month, at the second Africa Climate Summit in Addis Ababa, leaders in the final declaration identified “the role of transitional energy sources” – widely taken to be a reference to fossil gas – “in ensuring a just transition that safeguards the energy security of developing countries”.
Also, in January, at the Mission 300 energy summit in Tanzania, African leaders adopted a joint statement, citing gas as one of the energy sources needed to unlock “Africa’s full energy potential”.
Giza Gaspar-Martins, a former Angolan climate negotiator who served as chair of the Least Developed Countries group, said “it’s ok” for countries to use gas as a transition fuel “because it has less of a potential to increase global greenhouse gas emissions” compared with other fossil fuels.
Despite the general discouragement for continued investment in fossil fuel production, oil- and gas-producing countries, in particular, have adopted the same position to use gas as a transition fuel and “this is a reflection of national circumstances. It is what it is,” Gaspar-Martins told Climate Home News.
But climate campaigners say continuing to rely on fossil fuels, including gas, could hamper – not help – the continent’s development.
Aliyu urged policymakers to concentrate on renewables and green hydrogen, “rather than investing in a fuel source that is most likely to repeat the oil curse”.
The post Nigeria gives fossil gas a bigger role as “transition fuel” in climate plan appeared first on Climate Home News.
Lula says he is “optimistic” about US support for new rainforest fund
Brazil’s President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva said on Wednesday he is “optimistic” about a potential donation from the United States to the Tropical Forest Forever Facility (TFFF), a new international instrument to channel money for forest protection.
During a press conference at United Nations headquarters in New York, Lula said that, if Brazil had already pledged $1 billion to the fund, as it announced on Tuesday, “how much could the US present?”
Since Donald Trump – a climate change denier – took over at the White House, he has given notice to pull his country out of the Paris Agreement, and taken an axe to US development and climate aid overseas.
The TFFF, championed by the COP30 host nation Brazil, aims to raise money to keep forests standing in tropical countries by generating returns on investments in financial markets.
Lula’s comments came just a day after he met his US counterpart for the first time in the corridors of the UN. After the brief encounter, described by Lula as “a surprise”, Trump said they had “excellent chemistry.”
Explainer: Brazil’s “right answer” to forest finance turns to markets to keep rainforest standing
Lula said he was “very happy” with Trump’s comment, as Brazil and the US – the two largest economies in the Americas – have many industrial, technological and scientific interests in common, as well as “in the debate about digital platforms and artificial intelligence”.
In recent weeks, relations between the two countries have been frosty over Trump’s efforts to slap trade tariffs on Brazil.
Lula said multiple times that a formal meeting between the two leaders could happen soon – also mentioned by Trump – adding he would treat the US president with respect and expect the same from him. “This is what I want, and I believe that’s what he wants too.”
Praise for China’s NDCLula also said he had written letters to world leaders, including Trump and China’s President Xi Jinping, to personally invite them to COP30, the UN climate summit happening in November in the Brazilian state of Pará.
“The US knows, people know, that the climate change issue is not something that we can joke around, fool around, and the world is in need and suffering,” he said.
On Tuesday in a long speech to the UN General Assembly, right after bumping into Lula, Trump rejected global efforts to transition to renewable energy and urged countries to keep drilling for fossil fuels – dismissing scientists’ warnings that this could set the world on a dangerous trajectory of unfettered warming. He described climate change as “the greatest con job”.
In his press conference as the climate summit continued, Lula also welcomed China’s new emissions-cutting target which its leader unveiled at the start, with the Asian giant pledging a 7-10% cut in greenhouse gas emissions by 2035 compared to “peak” levels.
China unveils underwhelming emissions-cutting target for 2035
Lula said he was “very happy with” with the announcement, “because China is a very big country”. He mentioned that, during COP15, the UN climate summit in Denmark in 2009 which ended in a failure to seal a new global accord, “the world wanted to throw the responsibility on the shoulders of China”, but that wouldn’t work as industrialised nations have a debt of 200 years of emitting greenhouse gases.
“But in the last years, China has advanced a lot. That’s the truth of the matter,” he added, praising the country’s energy transition and recent declining emissions.
At climate summit, UN chief urges countries to go “much further, much faster” on NDCs
As in his opening speech at the climate summit, Lula called on all governments to respect what climate scientists say, at the risk of losing credibility if they don’t.
But the only way to ensure that countries actually comply is that every time they make a decision that damages the world, they need to be punished “not in a unilateral manner, but… by the whole collective of countries”, he said.
The post Lula says he is “optimistic” about US support for new rainforest fund appeared first on Climate Home News.
Planet’s health in rising danger, as ocean acidification crosses safety limit
An annual scientific check on the planet’s health has shown that the Earth is moving closer to the danger zone, as a warming climate and polluted ecosystems are weakening its natural resilience. One key indicator for ocean health has significantly worsened, it warned.
The report from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), released on Wednesday during Climate Week NYC, revealed that seven of nine safety limits, called “planetary boundaries” have now been breached, one more than last year.
The ocean acidification boundary has been crossed for the first time, driven mainly by fossil fuel burning and worsened by deforestation, the report said, meaning that the oceans’ ability to act as Earth’s stabiliser is weakening. Oceans turn more acidic by absorbing CO2 from the atmosphere, a process that can threaten marine life.
Levke Caesar, co-lead of the Planetary Boundaries Science Lab, and one of the report’s authors said the intensifying acidification of the seas, combined with warming and loss of oxygen, affects everything from coastal fisheries to the open ocean.
“The consequences ripple outward impacting food security, global climate stability, and human wellbeing,” she added, noting that the ocean’s ability to act as a sink for planet-warming carbon dioxide is declining.
Since the start of the industrial era, the ocean’s surface pH – which measures the level of acidity – has fallen by around 0.1 units, a 30-40% increase in acidity, pushing marine ecosystems beyond safe limits.
Tiny sea snails known as pteropods – which are an important part of the marine food chain – are already showing signs of shell damage, for example. Cold-water corals and tropical coral reefs are especially at risk from intensifying acidification, the report said.
Commenting on the findings, Chris Thorne, senior oceans campaigner at Greenpeace UK, called on states to urgently develop proposals for a network of ocean sanctuaries on the high seas, after a new pact to protect international waters last week gained enough ratifications to enter into force.
“We must give marine life space to build resilience to severe changes in the marine environment,” he added.
Improvements in ozone, aerosols offer hopeThe other breached planetary boundaries include climate change, extinctions and natural productivity, forest loss and human impacts on freshwater systems, and pollution caused by overuse of fertilisers.
“More than three-quarters of the Earth’s support systems are not in the safe zone. Humanity is pushing beyond the limits of a safe operating space, increasing the risk of destabilising the planet”, said Johan Rockström, director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research and a report co-author.
He added at a press conference in New York that the ocean is under multiple pressures from several boundaries, “and that makes us particularly nervous”.
Work is ongoing to understand when and how systems subject to a range of stresses – such as coral reefs, the Amazon rainforest and polar ice sheets – can tip into a state from which they cannot recover and maybe irreversibly lost or transformed, he added.
But he and other scientists behind the report stressed it is not too late to bring the planet back within safe environmental limits.
They pointed to the two areas where progress has been made: a drop in aerosol pollution and healing of the ozone layer, which has improved after governments got together to tackle the issue under the Montreal Protocol.
Chief planetary scientists for governments?Speaking to journalists in New York, former Irish President Mary Robinson, who also belongs to a group of Planetary Guardians who support the annual scorecard, called on governments to appoint a “chief planetary scientist”.
“Just as chief economists safeguard financial policy, chief planetary scientists would ensure decisions from budgets to food systems to disaster planning keep us within Earth’s safe operating space,” she said.
Climate Home News understands that Indonesia and the UK are considering appointing such a scientist.
“Imagine if every national budget, every security plan, every trade deal, began with the question: does this keep us within planetary boundaries?” Robinson asked.
The post Planet’s health in rising danger, as ocean acidification crosses safety limit appeared first on Climate Home News.
China unveils underwhelming emissions-cutting target for 2035
China’s new emissions reduction target, announced at a high-level climate summit at the United Nations in New York, has been judged by experts as “timid” and falling short of the effort needed to meet global climate goals, even though it represents an increase in the country’s climate ambition.
The Asian economic powerhouse promised to aim for a 7-10% cut in its greenhouse gas emissions by 2035 compared to “peak” levels, without specifying which year that would be. Analysts said that pledge – China’s first goal to cut its absolute emissions – is not enough to align with the Paris Agreement target of limiting global warming to 1.5C.
In a video message to the summit, China’s President Xi Jinping told world leaders that the “green and low-carbon transition is the trend of our time”, despite “some countries acting against it”.
“China will by 2035 reduce economy-wide net greenhouse gas emissions by 7-10% from peak levels, striving to do better,” the Chinese leader announced at the Climate Summit 2025 convened by the UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres in New York.
The world’s largest carbon polluter, China is responsible for about a third of global emissions. As countries delivered new climate plans at the summit, China’s new nationally determined contribution (NDC) has been one of the most anticipated and is viewed an indicator of global climate ambition.
Target falls short of Paris Agreement alignmentThe Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA) and the China Climate Hub estimate that only emissions cuts of 30% or more by 2035 would make China’s plans consistent with the 1.5C limit.
A range, such as the one delivered by Xi at the New York summit, could be interpreted as “the lower bound is effectively the guarantee, while the upper bound represents potential ambition”, CREA said.
Commenting on the new NDC, China Climate Hub directors Kate Logan and Li Shuo said the 2035 target “would likely put the world on a pathway of 3C warming by 2100 and catastrophic climate impacts”.
The baseline year for the target – a key measure for how ambitious it is – was not clarified in Xi’s announcement. The country will take as reference the “peak” in its emissions, with some experts saying that could have occurred as early as last year or this year.
China’s rapid renewable energy rollout has kept the country on track to meet its existing goal of peaking carbon pollution before the end of the decade. It plans to reach net zero by 2060.
Brazil’s call for COP trade forum gets lukewarm response
The Chinese president also announced a target to “increase the share of non-fossil fuels in total energy consumption to over 30%”, and “expand the installed capacity of wind and solar power to over six times the 2020 levels, striving to bring the total to 3,600 GW”. Analysts noted that at the current rate of addition, this target for renewables capacity could be achieved as early as 2030.
In addition, Xi pledged to make EVs the “mainstream in the sale of new vehicles”, expand its emissions trading market to cover “major emitting sectors” and “scale up the total forest stock volume to over 24 billion cubic metres”.
The inclusion in China’s target of emission removals from the land and forestry sector makes it “less transparent”, warned Climate Action Tracker, a group that scientifically assesses countries’ climate plans.
As China and EU disappoint, prospects of meeting 1.5C climate target fade
Since 2020, China has also pledged to reduce CO2 emissions per unit of GDP – a measure known as carbon intensity – by more than 65% below 2005 levels by 2030. This target was not mentioned in Xi’s announcement, nor were specific 2035 targets for any non-carbon gases, especially methane.
UN climate chief Simon Stiell said China’s new target “shows this acceleration of climate action, [clean energy] manufacturing and deployment will continue, and increase”, and added that the scale of expected investments is “unprecedented”.
Dave Jones, chief analyst with energy think-tank Ember, said the new NDC underscored the progress made by China over the last few years with its energy transition, showing that “a sustained decline in its fossil fuel use is now well within sight” and China would continue to install solar and wind “at mega-scale”.
Emissions target “too timid”Other observers said China’s new mitigation target for 2035 fell short of what the country can deliver, arguing it is not representative of the country’s climate actions on the ground.
Beijing’s existing policies put it on track to achieve the new target, which is therefore unlikely to further drive down emissions, according to analysis by Climate Action Tracker. “This is disappointing as China has the opportunity to decarbonise faster,” Norah Zhang, the organisation’s China lead, said.
Yao Zhe, Beijing-based global policy advisor for Greenpeace East Asia, said that “even for those with tempered expectations, what’s presented today still falls short. This 2035 target offers little assurance to keep our planet safe.”
Still, Zhe added that China is expected to exceed its target on paper, in line with its tradition for under-promising and over-delivering. “Ultimately, actions do speak louder than words. But strong and consistent policy signals are an irreplaceable catalyst,” she said.
COP30 PR firm found to be “uniquely reliant” on fossil fuel clients
Juan Manuel Santos, former president of Colombia and chair of The Elders group, said China’s new target “is too timid given the country’s extraordinary record on clean energy – both at home and through its green partnerships with emerging economies”.
In the past, the country delivered on its target to install 1,200 gigawatts (GW) of wind and solar energy ahead of the government’s schedule.
Bernice Lee, distinguished fellow at Chatham House, said the new target “simply isn’t representative of the pace of the energy transition in the country” adding that other countries will “read the writing on the wall” and recognise China’s climate commitment to clean energy outside of its NDC.
CREA and China Climate Hub analysts noted that by saying it was “striving to do better”, China is sending a signal that it could revise its on-paper commitment upwards based on actual progress in the real economy.
“I am quite confident that there will be an upgrade to this NDC in a couple of years, and hopefully that will be another reason for Xi Jinping to put something forward that gives us a bit more hope,” Belinda Schäpe, China policy analyst with CREA, told journalists.
China’s climate leadership “critical”Experts have said that strong leadership from China and the European Union is critical ahead of the COP30 climate summit, as the Trump administration has pulled back from the US’s international climate commitments.
The EU’s climate commissioner Wopke Hoekstra said on Thursday that China’s climate plan “falls well short” of what is necessary and makes it “more challenging” to reach global climate goals. The EU has yet to agree on its updated NDC amid divisions among its member states, but it signalled its 2035 emission-cutting target would “range between 66% and 72%” below 1990 levels.
In a major milestone this year, China’s emissions fell for the first time in the 12 months to May, despite continued growth in energy demand. Previous declines in emissions had only taken place during the COVID-19 pandemic, when strong social restrictions slowed down economic growth.
The country’s much-criticised coal sector has kept growing to power its energy-hungry industry. Still, as transport, buildings and industry electrify fast, China’s energy-related fossil fuel consumption is expected to fall soon, according to Ember.
Given the country’s massive energy footprint, this would create the conditions for a global decline in fossil fuel demand, it argues.
“We know China has a long and impressive record of meeting and surpassing its targets for climate change and clean energy,” UN climate chief Stiell said. “So, today’s news is a clear signal that the future global economy will run on clean energy.”
This story was updated to include remarks by Simon Stiell, executive secretary of the UN convention on climate change, EU Commissioner Wopke Hoekstra as well as China climate policy analysts.
The post China unveils underwhelming emissions-cutting target for 2035 appeared first on Climate Home News.
At climate summit, UN chief urges countries to go “much further, much faster” on NDCs
UN Secretary-General António Guterres urged world leaders to deliver climate plans that go “much further, much faster” as he kicked off today’s climate summit at UN headquarters.
Hinting at an expected shortfall in the ambition needed to reduce emissions in line with the Paris Agreement 1.5C temperature limit, he said November’s COP30 must end with a “credible global response plan” to get world efforts back on track.
Guterres, who convened the gathering, outlined five areas for priority action, putting energy at the top. Despite clean energy’s competitiveness, fossil fuels still dominate, he said, calling on countries to “supercharge” the energy transition by investing in grids and storage, lowering investment costs for developing countries and shifting subsidies away from fossil fuels.
“Drastic cuts” in methane emissions are essential and can be achieved quickly and cheaply, Guterres added. A potent gas with a shorter lifespan than carbon dioxide, methane is widely considered a low-hanging fruit to slow global warming.
The International Energy Agency reckons around 40% of methane emissions from fossil fuels could be cut at no net cost. That’s because interventions like identifying and repairing leaky infrastructure cost less than the market value of the additional gas fossil fuel operators would be able to capture and sell, the watchdog said.
The UN chief then highlighted the need to end the destruction of forests, which he described as “nature’s greatest carbon sinks”. At COP28 two years ago, countries committed to ending and reversing deforestation by 2030. Guterres said that could deliver a fifth of the needed emission reductions by the end of this decade. At the moment, that goal remains way off track as forest loss keeps rising.
Guterres also called for governments to urgently deploy new technologies that can cut emissions from steel and cement production, as well as heavy transport. Those sectors are generally considered harder to decarbonise because they require substantial amounts of energy, and efforts to make them greener rely on less mature, or more expensive, solutions like hydrogen or alternative fuels.
Finally, Guterres made an appeal for climate justice. The finance gaps preventing investment in climate resilience across the developing world should be plugged, he said. That means reforming the international financial architecture, offering “effective” debt relief, raising contributions to the loss and damage fund, and boosting adaptation finance.
Brazil’s president: Submitting NDCs is “an obligation”Opening the summit together with the UN chief, President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva urged countries to submit their new climate plans (Nationally Determined Contributions – NDCs) before COP30, which is happening in the Brazilian state of Pará this November.
“The submissions of NDCs is not an option. As it was made clear by the International Court of Justice, it is an obligation,” he said referring to its advisory opinion on climate change and human rights handed down in July.
He added that only by having all countries respect their commitments and submit their NDCs, will the world know where it stands in the battle against climate change. No one is safe from the effects of it, he said, not even the countries that are part of what he called “multilateral denialism”.
As he spoke, only 47 countries had presented their plans.
Brazil was the second country to present its NDC, last November. It aims to reduce emissions of all greenhouse gases by between 59% and 67% across all sectors of the economy and end deforestation by 2030.
Lula championed multilateralism in multiple parts of his speech, saying that COP30 can be “the stage for a decisive moment in” its history. “I call on the countries that have not yet submitted their NDCs. The success of COP30 in Belém depends on you.”
He also said that if the world doesn’t come together and take decisions that respect what science says, civil society will stop trusting its leaders, “and instead of strengthening the struggle against global warming, we are going to help discredit multilateralism policies and in democracy. And all of us will lose because denialism may actually win.”
Brazilian president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva addresses the Climate Summit 2025 (Photo: UN Photo/Manuel Elias) China unveils 2035 emissions-cutting goal of 7-10%China announced a much-anticipated new target to reduce its emissions – the first to cut them in absolute terms. It said it will aim for a 7-10% cut in greenhouse gas emissions by 2035 compared to “peak” levels, without specifying which year that would be.
Experts said that pledge is not enough to align China’s efforts with the Paris Agreement goal of limiting global warming to 1.5C.
In a video message, Chinese President Xi Jinping told world leaders that the “green and low carbon transition is the trend of our time”, despite “some countries acting against it”.
“China will by 2035 reduce economy-wide net greenhouse gas emissions by 7-10% from peak levels, striving to do better,” the Chinese leader announced.
The Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA) has warned that only emissions cuts of around 30% by 2035 by China would be consistent with the 1.5C limit.
A range, such as the one delivered by Xi at the New York summit, could be interpreted as “the lower bound is effectively the guarantee, while the upper bound represents potential ambition”, it said.
The baseline year for the target – a key measure for how ambitious the target is – was not clarified in Xi’s announcement. The country will take as reference the “peak” in its emissions, with some experts saying that could be as early as last year or this year.
China’s rapid renewable energy rollout has kept the country on track to meet its existing goal of peaking carbon pollution before the end of the decade. It plans to reach net zero by 2060.
The world’s largest carbon polluter, China is responsible for about a third of global emissions. As countries are expected to deliver stronger climate plans at the climate summit, China’s new nationally determined contribution (NDC) has been keenly awaited and is viewed as an indicator of global climate ambition.
The Chinese president also announced a target to “increase the share of non-fossil fuels in total energy consumption to over 30%”, and “expand the installed capacity of wind and solar power to over six times the 2020 levels, striving to bring the total to 3,600 gigawatts” .
In addition, he pledged to “scale up the total forest stock volume to over 24 billion cubic metres”, make EVs the “mainstream in the sale of new vehicles”, and expand China’s emissions trading market to cover “major emitting sectors”.
European Union promises to submit formal NDC before COP30To no-one’s surprise, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen announced that the bloc’s 2035 target would “range between 66% and 72%” below 1990 levels and promised to formally submit it before COP30.
“The clean transition is moving on and let me assure you that Europe will stay the course on our climate ambition,” she said.
She also plugged the EU’s support for clean cooking and other climate finance projects overseas. “No mother, no child should die because [of] simply cooking dinner under abhorrent circumstances”, she said.
Von der Leyen could only give an emissions-reduction range – known as a “statement of intent” – because the European Union has not yet been able to agree exact targets for 2035 or 2040, on the road to meeting its overarching goal of net zero by 2050.
In July, the European Commission, the bloc’s executive arm, proposed a goal to cut emissions 90% on 1990 levels by 2040. That would have formed the basis for the 2035 target.
But the 2040 goal still needs approval from the EU’s other two arms – the European Parliament and the European Council, which represents member states.
At a meeting last week in Brussels, environment ministers from the bloc’s 27 member states said they had been unable to agree on the targets, asking heads of state to give them a steer at a European Council meeting in October.
Thomas Gelin, a climate campaigner with Greenpeace EU, criticised the European Union for failing to approve its NDC in time for Wednesday’s summit.
“Coming empty-handed… is an abdication of the EU’s climate leadership. It’s a huge embarrassment and ignores Europe’s responsibility to act after enriching itself over decades through carbon pollution,” he said, calling on the bloc to urgently agree on “a real climate target in line with science”.
Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Commission, addresses the Climate Summit 2025 (Photo: UN Photo/Manuel Elias) Small island states call for binding methane reduction pactLeaders of small island states called in New York for a “globally binding methane reduction agreement”, which they argue could give a near-term boost on the road to fully implementing more complex climate plans.
“This makes sense for the oil and gas people. It makes sense for the planet. It makes sense to the farmers, it makes sense to the planet. And quite frankly, we cannot continue as if things are still the same. If we want the NDCs to be properly applied, we have to buy time,” said Barbados Prime Minister Mia Mottley.
Methane is a short-lived greenhouse gas that is more than 80 times more potent than carbon dioxide (CO2). Experts say cutting methane emissions is a “low hanging fruit” in climate mitigation, as it would make a big difference with relatively small actions.
At a global level, methane emissions come mainly from the agriculture sector (40%), the oil and gas sector (35%) and waste (20%).
Since COP26 in Glasgow, 111 countries have signed up to the Global Methane Pledge – which aims to cut methane emissions by 30% by 2030, compared to 2020 levels.
In Dubai, at COP28, a group of 55 major oil and gas companies pledged to reach “near-zero methane emissions by 2030” in their drilling operations. But small islands called on Wednesday for even more ambitious actions.
“We had a voluntary agreement on methane out of Dubai. That is not enough. We need a legally binding global agreement for methane reduction,” Mottley said.
Mia Amor Mottley, Prime Minister of Barbados, addresses the Climate Summit 2025 (UN Photo/Manuel Elias)COP30 CEO Ana Toni confirmed in a statement that methane will be a priority at the UN climate summit in Belem. “We truly expect COP30 to be a major platform to discuss the issue and put the focus on methane. This is one of our main action agendas,” she told another dialogue at the UN on Wednesday.
Feleti Teo, the prime minister of Tuvalu, also called for a “binding commitment” to step up methane reductions, and urged high-emitting countries to transition away from fossil fuels.
Both Teo and Marshall Islands President Hilda Heine referenced a recent advisory opinion by the International Court of Justice (ICJ), which says that countries failing to cut emissions could be held accountable. Teo said “inaction is not only immoral but unlawful”.
“Fellow leaders and especially those of you from the G20, if the Marshall Islands can deliver an ambitious NDC so can you,” said Heine. “In fact, as the ICJ decision confirms, you are legally required to. You must deliver stronger NDCs that can meet 1.5C and can say how you will transition away from fossil fuels.”
Hilda Heine, President of the Republic of the Marshall Islands, addresses the Climate Summit 2025 (UN Photo/Manuel Elias) Türkiye and Australia reinforce rival bids to host COP31The ongoing rivalry between Türkiye and Australia to host the COP31 UN climate summit in 2026 ramped up in New York, with the leaders of both countries – speaking one after the other – repeating their desire to organise the annual conference on their soil.
Türkiye’s Tayyip Erdogan spoke first, announcing a new target for his country to cut its greenhouse gas emissions 466 million tonnes by 2035 to 643 million tonnes – without specifying the baseline – and talked up its efforts to increase renewables in the energy mix, boost EV production and invest in railways. He said international finance and technology cooperation would be essential to achieve Türkiye’s goals.
“We hope to crown all these efforts by hosting the 31st COP in 2026,” he added.
Australia, for its part, also outlined its recently announced 2035 NDC – a cut of between 62% and 70% on 2005 levels, which has been criticised by environmentalists as insufficient.
Prime Minister Anthony Albanese spoke of the extreme weather and bushfires suffered by his people, adding “we can do more than just guard against the very worst”.
He said clean energy is “key” for Australia and could underpin “new prosperity” for the growing economies of Indo-Pacific nations, which are partnering with Australia in its bid to host COP31.
“We want to bring the world with us on climate change,” he added, saying “together we cannot fail”.
With neither Türkiye nor Australia backing down on their bids for COP31, the fight could rumble on until COP30 taking place in Brazil later in November, which is the deadline for a decision to be made.
Australia is thought to have far more support in the “Western Europe and Other” group of countries which will choose the winner. The COPs rotate around different regions of the world.
The Guardian newspaper reported that Australia’s climate change and energy minister Chris Bowen has been lobbying the Turkish government to drop its rival bid, appearing at a zero waste event with Türkiye’s first lady in New York, while Albanese is seeking a meeting with Erdoğan as part of the negotiations.
The post At climate summit, UN chief urges countries to go “much further, much faster” on NDCs appeared first on Climate Home News.
Fact-checked: Trump’s UN tirade against renewables, climate deals and environmentalists
In a confrontational speech to the UN General Assembly, US President Donald Trump rejected global efforts to transition to renewable energy and urged countries to keep drilling for fossil fuels – dismissing scientists’ warnings that this could set the world on a dangerous trajectory of unfettered warming.
Under the Trump administration, the White House has reversed ambitious climate policies and has walked away from climate action at the UN by crippling climate finance and removing US diplomats from key summits.
In Tuesday’s speech at the UN headquarters in New York, Trump made a series of false statements about renewable energy, the Paris Agreement, climate finance and climate science – describing climate change as “the greatest con job”.
Gina McCarthy, a climate adviser to former US President Joe Biden, said Trump had embarrassed the United States on the global stage, thrown away US climate leadership and washed his hands of responsibility for protecting Americans from climate disasters.
Others dismissed the significance of Trump’s words, however.
Ilana Seid, a diplomat from the Pacific nation of Palau and the chair of the small island developing states negotiating group AOSIS, told a press conference the Republican president’s words were “not surprising” because his “position on climate has always been what it is”.
In New York, presenting new science that shows seven out of nine key environmental safety limits for the planet have been breached, Johan Rockström, director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, said President Trump’s “assault on science and [climate] denialism is unacceptable”.
“It’s a threat, and it’s deviating so far away from the established evidence we have that it creates an enormous frustration. But on the other hand, it’s so extreme that I think to some extent we must also not get too drowned in… focusing too much on it,” he added.
Here we provide the facts on some of the false statements made by Trump:
Renewable energy is cheaper than fossil fuelsTrump said in his speech that renewable energy, and in particular wind power, is “a joke”, calling it expensive and unreliable as a source of energy to power factories.
“[Wind power is the] most expensive energy ever conceived. You’re supposed to make money with energy, not lose money. You lose money the governments have to subsidise. You can’t put them out with that massive subsidy,” he said.
In reality, 91% of the new renewable power projects commissioned in 2024 were more cost-effective than any fossil fuel-fired alternative, according to analysis by the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA).
The global average cost of electricity generated by solar panels (PV) and onshore wind was 41% and 53% cheaper last year, respectively, than the cheapest new fossil fuel-fired power plant, the report found.
Additionally, on a global level, government subsidies for fossil fuel consumption were nine times higher than those for renewable energy in 2023, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA).
China uses wind power more than the USTrump said that, while China sells wind turbines, “they barely use them”, and that most of the Asian country’s energy comes from coal, fossil gas or “almost anything” but wind.
Although most Chinese energy does still come from coal, China also produces more electricity from wind power than any other country in the world – over twice as much as the United States.
China is building new wind and solar installations faster than any other country in the world, accounting for close to 70% of global wind installations in 2024, according to the Global Wind Report.
All these efforts on clean energy put China’s carbon dioxide emissions into reverse for the first time this year, with a 1.6% decrease during the first quarter, when compared with 2024.
Even under Biden, US did not pay its fair shareTrump said the US “was paying so much more than every country” due to the “fake Paris accord”. While it was not clear what money he was referring to, climate experts say that even under the Biden administration, the United States has not been contributing its fair share of global climate finance.
In 2022, when Biden was president, the US paid $14.37 billion in climate finance. While this was $370 million more than the second-biggest contributor, Japan, an analysis by the ODI think-tank suggests that due to the size of the US economy, the contribution was just a third of its fair share of developed countries’ $100-billion annual commitment.
Only Greece paid a smaller part of its fair share, and the US was largely responsible for developed countries’ notorious failure to meet the $100-billion goal on time, according to the ODI study.
In 2022, the US paid just 32% of its fair share of developed countries collective $100-billion-a-year climate finance goal (Photo: ODI) Environmentalists do not want to “kill all the cows”Trump said in his speech that radical American environmentalists are demanding “no more cows – we don’t want cows anymore because they want to kill all the cows”.
Many Western politicians and lobbyists opposed to climate action have made similar assertions when referring to green policies that affect food.
Beef is one of the highest-emitting food sources and some environmentalists have encouraged people to shift their diets towards chicken, fish or vegetables.
Last year, the World Bank advised governments to shift subsidies from high-emitting to low-emitting foods.
But, while some environmentalists want to shut down cattle farms, none have proposed killing cows. The beef industry – which they are challenging – kills nearly a million cows a day.
The post Fact-checked: Trump’s UN tirade against renewables, climate deals and environmentalists appeared first on Climate Home News.
Brazil pledges $1bn in first contribution to COP30 rainforest fund
COP30 host nation Brazil has pledged $1 billion to a new fund to protect rainforests it will launch at the UN climate summit in Belém this November. The announcement in New York by Brazil’s president marks the first investment in the fund, which is set to receive cash from nations and private investors.
The Tropical Forest Forever Facility (TFFF), proposed by Brazil, aims to raise funds to keep forests standing in tropical countries by generating returns on investments in financial markets. As initial capital, it is seeking $25 billion from donor countries and $100 billion from private investors such as pension funds, banks and asset managers.
The South American nation is the first to make a contribution to the TFFF, while other countries like Germany, Norway, UK and the United Arab Emirates have expressed support and participated in its design.
“Brazil will lead by example and become the first country to commit an investment in the fund with $1 billion,” President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva told a high-level event on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly in New York on Tuesday. “I invite all partners in attendance to make equally ambitious contributions so that the TFFF becomes operational at COP30 in November.”
“In Belém, we will live the moment of truth for our generation of leaders. Tropical forests are critical to limit global warming to 1.5C. The TFFF is not charity. It’s an investment in humanity, in the planet against the threat of devastation caused by climate change,” Lula added.
Forest-rich countries currently face a funding gap of up to $70 billion every year to halt deforestation, researchers estimated in July. In August, all eight nations that are home to the Amazon Basin endorsed the TFFF, while the BRICS group of large emerging economies has also voiced support.
Donors urged to step upSome forest nations at the high-level meeting in New York – including Colombia, Ghana and Madagascar, as well as UN and World Bank observers – gave their backing to the TFFF and praised Brazil’s contribution.
Colombia’s Environment Minister Irene Vélez said the TFFF “should be the beginning of the transformation of financial structures”. “It should be a revolutionary system that provides justice,” she added.
Vélez urged other donor countries to follow Brazil’s lead, warning “we don’t want another dead fund”.
Campaigners also reacted positively to Brazil’s pledge and urged rich nations to follow suit. Toerris Jaeger, executive director of the Rainforest Foundation Norway, said in a statement “it is remarkable that a tropical forest country is the first mover, with wealthier countries yet to commit”.
World Bank to host fundSpeaking in New York, World Bank CEO Ajay Banga confirmed that the bank will serve as trustee and interim host of the TFFF – a role it already fulfills for other climate funds such as the Fund for Responding to Loss and Damage.
“Our job is to lay the rails and maintain them so the trains can run. We want to leave founders, funders and participating countries free to focus on delivery,” Banga said.
The World Bank has been involved in the TFFF’s design, advising Brazilian authorities on how to structure the fund so it will qualify for a top AAA credit rating. This is key for the economics of the fund to work, as it would struggle to deliver on its promised payments with a lower rating.
Banga said Brazil’s leadership on the TFFF is advancing the “right market thinking” around forests. He added that, if scaled up, the fund’s benefits would result in “good economics and good development”.
Some developing countries and campaigners have been critical of the bank’s role in the loss and damage fund, accusing it of charging high hosting fees and compromising the fund’s independence. The US remains the largest World Bank shareholder.
Other pledges to followDespite Brazil’s initial contribution, other donor nations involved in the fund’s design did not come forward with pledges on Tuesday but emphasised its importance as a new way to encourage forest protection.
“The TFFF can not only help reduce deforestation, but also maintain incentives to protect forests in perpetuity. A launch at COP30 in the Amazon could be a game-changer for forest finance,” Andreas Bjelland Eriksen, Norway’s climate minister, said during the high-level event.
Bjelland Eriksen noted that some of the fund’s final details are in still process of being worked out, adding “Norway wholeheartedly wants the TFFF to become a reality and to succeed.”
The TFFF is not a negotiated fund under the UN climate convention, which means that richer developing countries could contribute without assuming traditional donor responsibilities under the UNFCCC. Some experts say this could help convince China and Gulf states to chip in for the initial $25 billion in public finance.
China and the UAE attended the event at UN headquarters and expressed support for a TFFF launch at COP30, but fell short of signalling any pledges.
“This mechanism when operational would be groundbreaking for climate finance and has the potential to reshape how we reward nature-rich countries in preserving our common natural habitats,” Razan Al Mubarak, the UAE’s envoy for nature, said in a statement read at the event.
The post Brazil pledges $1bn in first contribution to COP30 rainforest fund appeared first on Climate Home News.
How Vanuatu is facing up to rising climate risks
The 8th Adaptation Futures conference will be held in Ōtautahi Christchurch, New Zealand from October 13-16, 2025. The climate challenges of Pacific island nations will form a key part of the event.
Vanuatu, a collection of 83 islands separated by around 1,300 km deep in the South Pacific Ocean, is among a group of ocean states widely regarded as uniquely exposed to climate change.
The World Risk Index, created by German academics and NGOs, has consistently ranked Vanuatu as the world’s most vulnerable country to climate risks and natural disasters.
Geography plays a large role in this because of Vanuatu’s proximity to the Pacific “Ring of Fire” – an area of strong volcanic activity and earthquakes – and its position close to the centre of a cyclone belt. Cyclonic storms have become more frequent and powerful in recent years due to global warming.
Category 5 tropical cyclones – the most severe – are particularly occurring more often. In 2015, Cyclone Pam damaged an estimated 90% of all buildings in Vanuatu and impacted half the population. This was followed by Cyclone Harold in 2020 when winds of up to 125 miles per hour caused an estimated US$768 million in damages across the Pacific.
Another reason for Vanuatu’s vulnerability is its scattered population around coasts that are exposed to rising sea levels. A total of 325,000 people live across 65 islands, characterised by rugged terrain and limited infrastructure.
Giving nature breathing room builds climate resilience
Despite these limitations, the country is finding new and innovative ways to protect its population against climate threats and regain its economic competitiveness.
An ongoing project on the country’s largest island, Espiritu Santo, is trialling techniques to support communities adapt. The project grant – funded by the Adaptation Fund and managed by UNDP through the Adaptation Fund Climate Innovation Accelerator (AFCIA) – focuses on a number of areas that can benefit these isolated communities. Key components include ecosystem restoration, disaster preparedness, improving food security and strengthening institutions.
Women on Western Santo are retraining in sustainable handicrafts to diversify income. (Image: SSEN) Women on Western Santo are retraining in sustainable handicrafts to diversify income. (Image: SSEN) Disaster committeesThe Paris Agreement set a clear goal of limiting global temperatures to well below 2 degrees Celsius with the aim of keeping to a safer ceiling of 1.5C above pre-industrial levels.
Under current scenarios, where average temperatures increase by more than 2C, island nations such as Vanuatu are predicted to lose 20% of their GDP each year due to climate disasters. This is despite data which shows Vanuatu contributed less than 0.01% of global carbon dioxide emissions.
Joses Togase, a project manager at Santo Sunset Environment Network (SSEN), an Indigenous environmental group on the island, told Climate Home News that people in the region are facing serious threats from climate change. “Rising sea levels are damaging the coastal zones and eroding valuable local resources that people depend upon to support their livelihoods,” he said.
Further inland, he commented, people are experiencing an increase in landslides, soil erosion and flooding which is impacting crop production, forest cover and access to freshwater. “The unpredictable changing weather, heavy rainfalls, droughts, very rough storms, and more frequent tropical cyclones are major challenges the communities are facing,” he added.
Climate disasters challenge right to safe and adequate housing
In response, the Espiritu Santo project has supported community leaders, forest rangers and climate-related disaster committees to adapt to a changing climate. In 2023, the island was hit by two Category 5 cyclones within a week. The committees – with the help of the SSEN – immediately undertook a damage assessment and identified emergency needs so the government could act quickly.
In the future, this work will be supported by an upgraded early warning system and improved internet access – thanks to solar-powered satellite communication – to allow the community to access live weather advice.
A woman demonstrating how to use a solar-powered coconut grinder. (Image: SSEN) A woman demonstrating how to use a solar-powered coconut grinder. (Image: SSEN) How to farm smartFood security is often a concern in remote regions and extreme weather adds another layer of vulnerability to communities on Vanuatu. Under these circumstances, subsistence farmers need to switch to crops which have higher yields in a shorter growing season and are able to withstand much harsher weather conditions.
The project, alongside encouraging families to maintain their traditional methods of food production, is seeking to raise awareness of climate-smart agriculture. Demonstration plots have been established to plant drought-resistant crops, such as manioc, kumara and taro.
Growing cover crops between seasons to protect the soil, and intercropping, where more than one crop is grown side-by-side in the same field, are also promoted. These practices are designed to improve soil health, prevent erosion and protect against extreme weather.
Togase believes these practices should be shared with other Pacific islands facing similar climate threats. “The traditional planting calendar, food crop planting and preservation are some of the important lessons,” he commented.
Advancing women’s rights and empowerment in climate adaptation
Increase in local awarenessHuman settlements on Vanuatu date back over 3,000 years. In that time, Indigenous peoples have dealt with a range of environmental risks. The climate crisis is the latest in that series and local people are looking to utilise – and adapt – traditional ways of life to overcome these challenges. Groups such as SSEN provide an important connection between the community and government as they collectively navigate a way forward.
According to Togase, recent interventions on Espiritu Santo have “increased understanding and realisation among the local people to become more conscious and alert” in mitigating climate threats. This has, in part, been achieved through Indigenous knowledge sharing and respecting community governance.
As Vanuatu faces an uncertain future, its people aren’t shying away from these threats, but using nature, existing customs and new ideas to their advantage.
Adam Wentworth is a freelance writer based in Brighton, UK
The post How Vanuatu is facing up to rising climate risks appeared first on Climate Home News.
Explainer: Brazil’s “right answer” to forest finance turns to markets to keep rainforest standing
Wall Street investors have earned billions financing activities linked to deforestation in the tropics, with forest loss reaching record highs last year. But a major proposal by Brazil’s COP30 presidency wants to turn financial markets into allies of the rainforest.
The Tropical Forest Forever Facility (TFFF), a proposed new fund seeking to raise cash for conservation efforts in tropical countries, is set to be launched at the COP30 climate summit in Belém later this year.
Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has rallied behind the initiative and secured key endorsements from the eight South American nations home to the entire Amazon Basin. Private banks and countries in the BRICS group of large emerging economies have voiced support.
COP30 president André Corrêa do Lago has said “the TFFF is the right answer for forest conservation”.
The initiative comes as developing countries have complained about being unable to access existing forest funds at the Global Environment Facility (GEF), while foreign aid budgets which have funded forest conservation shrink in the US and Europe.
Yet finance needs in developing countries are large and growing, with estimates ranging between $20 billion and $72 billion every year to protect forests. In contrast, in 2022, the total finance destined for forests was just $2.3 billion.
What is the Tropical Forest Forever Facility (TFFF)?The TFFF is being proposed as a blended finance instrument, with funding from both public and private sources. It would seek to directly pay tropical countries that can show effective forest protection.
On paper, the TFFF will get its money similarly to an investment fund. Donor countries and private investors put their money in the fund, which then invests the capital in financial markets. A part of the returns is used to pay back investors and what remains is allocated to forest protection in tropical countries.
“Think of a bank that runs normal market operations but that directs its profits not to shareholders but to forests,” said João Paulo de Resende, undersecretary for economic and fiscal affairs at Brazil’s Ministry of Finance.
In its most recent version, Brazilian officials propose that the fund starts with $125 billion in capital, of which $25 billion would come from donor countries and $100 billion from private investors.
The payments to forest countries would depend on the returns of the fund, but an 8% yield would allow the fund to pay at a rate of about $4 per hectare of protected forest — which in total could raise an estimated $2.8 billion for rainforests every year.
The Brazilian government has said donor countries could include the United Kingdom, Norway and the United Arab Emirates, while private investors endorsing the fund include investment managers PIMCO, Bank of America and Barclays.
On the sidelines of the UN general assembly, Brazil announced the first pledge to the TFFF — a $1bn contribution. Brazilian president Lula da Silva said the country was leading by example and urged other donors to “make equally ambitious contributions”. By COP30, the South American country plans to sign a declaration of intent with donor countries.
Recipients would include tropical countries in major rainforest basins such as Colombia, the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and Indonesia, among others.
An aerial view shows deforestation near a forest on the border between Amazonia and Cerrado in Nova Xavantina, Mato Grosso state, Brazil in 2021 (REUTERS/Amanda Perobelli) How is the TFFF different from other climate funds?Other UN funds like the Green Climate Fund (GCF) or the GEF mostly give out one-time grants to countries that reduce emissions through projects and programmes to protect or restore forests (an approach known as REDD+). The TFFF would instead aim to reward countries that have kept their forests standing and can show results.
This “results-based payments” system is not new – the GCF, for example, gave out more than $500 million between 2015 and 2020 in this way. However, a fund solely for countries that can show success in preventing deforestation is a new way to target large intact rainforests, which struggle to receive REDD+ funding, said Torbjørn Gjefsen, international forest finance advisor at the Rainforest Foundation Norway.
“There is complementarity. It’s not competing with REDD+,” said Gjefsen. “If fully operational, it will substantially increase the amount of funding available for this kind of results-based payments.”
Amid a context of tighter foreign aid spending, another key difference is that the TFFF would seek to attract investments rather than depending on donations from public budgets.
The fund’s concept note claims that, if fully operational, the one-time investment from donor countries would allow payments to forest nations for as much as 40 years in the future.
Finally, unlike the other UN environmental funds, the TFFF is being proposed as a mechanism hosted by the World Bank outside of UN environmental conventions.
Sandra Guzman, founder of the Climate Finance Group for Latin America and the Caribbean (GFLAC), said this could potentially help convince large developing countries like China to contribute funds without having to assume donor-country responsibilities at the UN negotiations. Chinese officials have welcomed the TFFF and said they “hope it plays a positive role”.
World Bank CEO confirmed the bank will serve as trustee and interim host of the TFFF – a role it already fulfills for other climate funds such as the Fund for Responding to Loss and Damage. Banga said Brazil’s leadership on the TFFF is advancing the “right market thinking” around forests.
Colombia announces fossil fuel phase-out summit to be held in 2026
How will the TFFF make money from financial markets?In tapping financial markets, the TFFF will have to also deal with risk. If investments don’t generate the expected yields, payments to forest countries would need to be paused and paid out later, de Resende said.
The Brazilian government’s estimates show that if the TFFF had been operating in the last 20 years, it would have been under financial stress on two occasions: during the 2008 financial crisis and during the COVID-19 pandemic. The TFFF’s models project a 60% chance that payments to forest countries would need to be slightly reduced at some point in the fund’s lifespan.
The Brazilian authorities remain optimistic, as most value fluctuations are likely to be small, they say. De Resende said that “over the long run, this risk is minimal.”
The TFFF’s main strategy is to get cheap money from investors and lend money to emerging economies at much higher interest rates. Emerging market bonds would account for as much as 80% of its investments.
Critics say this could be a risky strategy, which is precisely why these emerging countries pay higher interest rates. “The risk of Egypt’s state bond is just not the same as the risk of US treasury bonds,” said Max Alexander Matthey, co-founder of Climate Impact Auctions.
Another key point is that, for the fund to achieve the promised payments, it would need to borrow money at a very low cost, so it would need a top-category AAA rating from credit rating agencies. Brazilian authorities have been in discussion with agencies on this and have said they aim to receive a “shadow rating” for the TFFF before COP30.
As part of the strategy, the fund will also exclude any investments in polluting industries such as coal, oil and gas.
Can COP30 turn adaptation talks into real-world investments?
Who is allowed to receive payments from the TFFF?According to the fund’s concept note, the 74 countries that are home to rainforests could be eligible to apply for TFFF payments if they meet the required criteria.
To access funds, tropical countries must demonstrate that they are reducing deforestation in a defined area, have a robust forest measurement system and a set of forest policies, and demonstrate that the payments will not replace national resources.
Countries would also have to commit to reserve at least 20% of payments for Indigenous people. While an important step, Guzman said this could be tricky in practice because of the challenges of directly transferring funds to these communities.
“Indigenous communities do not always have formal legal structures or administrative capacity,” she said. “It’s not easy, but it is desirable that communities start building these legal mechanisms.”
Currently not many forest countries meet the minimum requirements to be eligible for TFFF payments.
Online platform TFFF Watch, built by NGO Plant for the Planet, calculates that major countries like the DRC and Indonesia would not qualify for payments due to high deforestation rates, and would be missing out on annual deals worth $400 million and $450 million respectively.
On the other hand, Papua New Guinea would benefit greatly if the TFFF goes into operation exactly as laid out in its concept note, according to TFFF Watch. The country is already eligible for around $120 million in annual rewards, the platform estimates.
As shown by recent wildfires in the Amazon, some countries could end up losing or seeing some of their forests degraded even with robust protection measures in place. In these cases, countries would get their payments cut by the same ratio as they lose forests.
Yet once they do receive TFFF funding, forest countries will have full authority over how to use the funds.
This piece was updated to add information about Brazil’s $1bn pledge to the TFFF and the World Bank’s confirmation as interim host.
The post Explainer: Brazil’s “right answer” to forest finance turns to markets to keep rainforest standing appeared first on Climate Home News.
Brazil’s call for COP trade forum gets lukewarm response
Brazil’s COP30 president has called for governments to set up a new forum to discuss trade issues, following a series of disagreements at recent COPs over whether trade-related measures belong on the agenda of global climate negotiations.
Speaking during a World Trade Organization (WTO) event in Geneva last week, André Aranha Corrêa do Lago proposed the creation of an “integrated forum on climate change and trade” and hailed it as a “flagship initiative from our COP30 action agenda”.
He said climate and trade “have been discussed in silos for too long”, saying a new forum would foster trust and ideas to deal with trade issues, which include the harmful effects of climate-related trade measures, such as tariffs on high-emissions goods, carbon pricing, or export curbs that could hamper the green transition.
At the last two COPs – and at mid-year talks in Bonn – emerging economies have tried unsuccessfully to push what they call “unilateral trade measures” onto the agenda, saying policies such as the European Union’s carbon border tax are protectionist, do not take different levels of development into account, and harm their economies. The EU and other developed countries have opposed a dedicated agenda item.
In May, before the Bonn talks, Brazil’s COP presidency urged governments not to introduce “potentially contentious new agenda items that could further burden the process or detract from agreed priorities”. Despite that call, emerging economies proposed an agenda item on “trade-restrictive unilateral measures” and the ensuing debate delayed the start of the talks.
Speaking at a Climate Week event on the proposed climate and trade forum in New York on Tuesday, Wael Aboulmagd, Egypt’s ambassador to Brazil, said he recognised the value of green trade standards, but argued – without specifying which – that they are being imposed in a top-down way that does not take into account different levels of development nor consult those who are affected.
“Standards must be paired with support,” he added.
Avoiding a fight?Corrêa do Lago’s proposal, which Brazil will ask governments to support at COP30 in Belém in November, has so far received a lukewarm response from governments on both sides of the debate.
“It remains unclear how creating this additional forum would add value to the existing processes,” a European Union source told Climate Home News, speaking on condition of anonymity.
“[The bloc] already regularly engages with global partners on the links between trade, climate and environmental policies — bilaterally, plurilaterally and multilaterally,” the source added, saying that took place already under the U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and the WTO.
At the event in New York, representatives of the EU and Australia said they were considering the Brazilian idea but were not convinced another forum was needed for discussions on climate and trade. They disagreed with the COP30 president’s assertion that those conversations were not already happening in the WTO or the UN climate process.
A climate negotiator from an African country told Climate Home they did not understand what the proposal sought to achieve.
“[Perhaps Brazil is] trying to avoid an agenda fight by establishing this forum”, the negotiator said, asking not to be identified, adding that it was unclear how the new body would be funded.
“Source of fresh thinking”Corrêa do Lago said in Geneva the proposed forum would be insulated “from the calculus of concessions and gains so we can focus entirely on the calculus of what is possible and necessary”, saying it would be distinct from both the WTO and the U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change.
“Think of it as an upstream tributary, the source of fresh thinking that feeds into the two main streams of our multilateral system,” he said. “Its role will be to explore ideas and gather critical mass behind mutually empowering solutions, free from the constraints of formal proceedings.”
Climate experts said that while trade issues were not being properly discussed as part of climate negotiations, it was unclear how a new forum might help.
“A forum focused on climate and trade is a timely intervention, as this discussion currently is not happening at the WTO, and the EU is preventing discussions on trade at the UNFCCC,” said Avantika Goswami, climate lead at the India-based Centre for Science and Environment, a nonprofit research organisation.
But she said “there is a lot of baggage with the intertwining issues of trade and climate, and it is unclear if a new forum will resolve old tensions.”
Developing countries must “have a buy-in” on any new forums “to ensure that the harmful impacts of climate-related trade measures do not further entrench existing inequalities”, she added.
Li Shuo, director of the China Climate Hub at the Asia Society nonprofit group, said the Brazilian proposal could serve as a way to “help the rest of the COP get underway more smoothly”.
He said any new forum should not focus solely on carbon pricing and border taxes. Instead, he said, governments should discuss the “elephant in the room”, which is “do you buy Chinese solar panels, wind turbines, batteries, and electric vehicles? If not, what is the credible, convincing strategy for decarbonisation?”
Colette van der Van, head of Tulip Consulting which focuses on the trade-environment-development nexus, said the proposed forum could be “the fresh start needed to overcome the existing stalemate”, especially as it is being proposed by a developing country in Brazil. But, she added, the initiative could be just “yet another initiative” if it is not backed by a diverse group of countries.
This story was updated after publication to add comments from an event at Climate Week NYC.
The post Brazil’s call for COP trade forum gets lukewarm response appeared first on Climate Home News.
COP30 PR firm found to be “uniquely reliant” on fossil fuel clients
Edelman, the international media advisor to Brazil’s COP30 team, relies on its work with fossil fuel companies for its revenues more than any other public relations agency, new research has found.
An estimated 5.64% of the PR giant’s turnover comes from contracts with fossil fuel clients, including Shell and Chevron – a figure far higher than any of its rivals, according to a report released on Tuesday by the Clean Creatives campaigning group.
As Climate Home News first revealed in July, Edelman has been working with Brazil to hone the COP30 host nation’s media strategy for this year’s UN climate summit.
PR firm working for Shell wins COP30 media contract
Communications firm Edelman won a $835,000 contract via a UN agency to help the COP30 presidency “craft a strategic narrative”, manage international media relations, create digital content and navigate any PR crises, according to an agreement filed with the US government.
Duncan Meisel, executive director of Clean Creatives, said Edelman is “uniquely reliant” on fossil fuel contracts. “There is literally no agency worse suited for a role at COP30,” he added in a statement. “If the UN climate talks succeed in their goal, Edelman faces an existential threat to their revenue – that’s the definition of a conflict of interest.”
The United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), which awarded the COP30 media contract on behalf of Brazil, told Climate Home in July that Edelman’s selection did not contravene its rules on conflicts of interest. The COP30 presidency defended Edelman’s appointment, saying in a statement that the firm met the desired criteria for the role and had won a “rigorous” selection process.
A spokesperson for Edelman said the company believed climate change was “the greatest crisis of our time, requiring bold solutions, collaboration, and innovation”.
“Edelman is committed to being part of the change by working with diverse clients, including energy companies, who have a vital role to play in the transition as affirmed at COP28,” they told Climate Home when asked to comment on its work with both COP30 and Shell.
The “Mad Men” selling Big Oil’s imageCalls are growing for PR and advertising companies to stop promoting fossil fuel producers as the world battles to reduce carbon emissions. UN Secretary-General António Guterres, a vocal advocate of climate action, has described PR firms that work with fossil fuel companies as “Mad Men … fuelling the madness”.
But Clean Creatives catalogued 1,217 active or recent contracts between polluting firms and over 700 PR and advertising agencies as part of its annual F-List – a database of relationships between fossil fuel companies and their PR partners.
American conglomerate Omnicom holds the biggest number of contracts with fossil fuel firms at 120, followed by the British ad giant WPP with 82, according to the research.
“DJE” is Edelman’s holding company. Credit: Clean Creatives “DJE” is Edelman’s holding company. Credit: Clean CreativesClean Creatives linked Edelman to deals with just ten oil, gas and coal companies in 2024 and 2025. But the New York-headquartered PR giant topped the new “Fossil Fuel Income Risk Exposure” (FFIRE) index, which estimates the weight of fossil fuel contracts in the total revenue of top agencies.
While, overall, fossil fuel advertising and PR make up less than 1% of global marketing spend, Edelman relies on work with polluting companies for more than 5% of its revenue, Meisel noted. WPP and Omnicom rely on fossil fuel contracts for 0.68% and 0.55% of their earnings, respectively, according to the analysis.
Clean Creatives said Edelman’s score is the result of its global partnership with Shell, as well as its longstanding relationship with Chevron and Abu Dhabi-based ADNOC.
Appeal to keep fossil fuel interests out of COPWith growing calls to keep fossil fuel influence out of the UN climate talks, campaigners criticised Edelman’s appointment to the strategic COP30 media role.
In response to Climate Home’s article, the Global Climate and Health Alliance, a network of over 200 organisations, called on Brazil to reconsider its contract. It also urged Australia and Turkey, the countries vying to host next year’s COP, to commit to not hiring PR firms that also have fossil fuel clients.
“Future host countries should take a clear stand that will avoid this kind of conflict of interest and prevent the influence of the fossil fuel industry on negotiations to deal with the problem that industry created,” the coalition’s executive director Jeni Miller said.
The post COP30 PR firm found to be “uniquely reliant” on fossil fuel clients appeared first on Climate Home News.
Vanuatu pursues new UN resolution to turn ICJ climate opinion into action
The Pacific island nation of Vanuatu said on Monday that it is drafting a UN resolution to turn a landmark judicial opinion on states’ legal responsibilities to tackle climate change from words into “political action”.
Ralph Regenvanu, Vanuatu’s minister of climate change, said the resolution would be tabled later this year, likely after November’s COP30 climate summit, once governments’ responses to the International Court of Justice (ICJ) ruling have become clearer.
He told journalists that Vanuatu was putting together a group of supportive countries – which he hoped would cover every region – to push the UN resolution forward, and he expected it would quickly gain backing from a majority of states.
The resolution “will be about ensuring the court’s findings are not left on paper, but become living obligations”, he said on the sidelines of Climate Week NYC in New York this Monday.
In the ICJ opinion, handed down in July, the court’s 15 judges decided unanimously that governments have a legal duty to protect the climate. Breaching that duty, they said could result in the affected countries claiming compensation.
Top UN court paves way to lawsuits over inadequate climate finance
Judges also said states’ responsibilities to tackle climate change are broader than their climate plans under the Paris Agreement and extend to ensuring people’s right to a clean, healthy and sustainable environment under international law.
Government support for production and consumption of planet-heating fossil fuels may also “constitute an internationally wrongful act”, the opinion added.
The ICJ’s ruling stemmed from a March 2023 UN resolution which was led by Vanuatu, after a group of law students presented the idea to their government back in 2019.
Majority vote could sidestep oppositionRegenvanu said on Monday it is important to follow through on the world top court’s opinion with a further resolution at the UN General Assembly because countries that are against it could prevent it moving forward in other fora like the UN climate negotiations, which require consensus for decisions.
Some countries have already voiced objections ahead of COP30. In an informal consultation with delegations held earlier in September, Saudi Arabia’s negotiator said “there is no consensus among parties on the reference to the ICJ opinion”.
“It’s not a negotiated outcome under this process nor is it the product of intergovernmental deliberation. It would therefore be inappropriate to reflect such opinion within our work,” he added.
ICJ ruling expected to shape US climate lawsuits in defiance of Trump
In New York, Regenvanu said opposition to a UN resolution is expected “from certain states” in line with their approach to climate action, which “does not yet reflect the urgency highlighted by science and international law”.
“But unlike the UNFCCC processes, the UN General Assembly votes by majority… There is no veto power to block this resolution going through,” Regenvanu said.
Vanuatu said the upcoming resolution would formally endorse the full ICJ opinion, propose measures to overcome barriers and inequalities in current climate frameworks, and reinforce multilateralism as the foundation for a fair and effective global response.
The post Vanuatu pursues new UN resolution to turn ICJ climate opinion into action appeared first on Climate Home News.
Colombia announces fossil fuel phase-out summit to be held in 2026
The government of Colombia has announced it will host the first international conference on phasing out fossil fuels in April 2026, with the aim of providing countries with a global platform for co-operating on a transition away from planet-heating coal, oil and gas.
The announcement comes as a major report by climate think-tanks warned on Monday that governments are planning to increase fossil fuel supplies by twice the amount that would be consistent with the goals of the Paris Agreement by 2030.
Colombia’s Minister of Environment and Sustainable Development Irene Vélez said in a statement that the conference will be a “pivotal moment” for Global South countries to lead the charge towards cleaner energy systems.
“Together, we will chart a path that prioritises life, equity and sustainability over destruction and inequality. This is our moment, our mandate – to build a future beyond fossil fuels and ensure reparative justice for everyone,” Vélez said.
Vanuatu, a small Pacific island nation that led efforts to hold big polluters accountable through an advisory opinion issued by the International Court of Justice (ICJ) in July, expressed support for the conference.
Its climate minister Ralph Regenvanu said the fossil fuel transition is an “existential imperative” for the island, adding that the conference proposed by Colombia would be a “pivotal step” towards forging a common roadmap for how to achieve that goal.
At COP28 in Dubai in 2023, governments agreed to transition away from fossil fuels in energy systems, but have since failed to make progress on this pledge. At COP29 the following year, Saudi Arabia successfully blocked all mentions of fossil fuels.
Brazil’s environment minister has suggested talks on a roadmap for a planned energy transition at this year’s COP30, but it is not on the official agenda.
In June, Germany’s former climate envoy, Jennifer Morgan – an architect of the landmark Dubai deal – told an event at London Climate Action Week that the COP28 breakthrough is now “at risk” unless delivery on its commitments speeds up.
Tzeporah Berman, co-chair of the Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty Initiative, said in a statement that Colombia’s initiative marked “a bold and necessary step towards climate leadership”.
The decision to convene the conference was reached by the 17 countries participating in discussions to develop such a treaty, the initiative added.
What could a Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty look like?
Colombia said more details on the conference will be announced after a ministerial meeting on the sidelines of COP30, where countries will issue a joint declaration committing to “a just and equitable transition away from fossil fuels”.
Coal, oil and gas expansionBut as governments struggle to coordinate a fossil fuel phase-out, their energy ministries have kept busy doubling down on the polluting fuels. In Monday’s “production gap” report, experts warned that the planned expansion of coal, oil and gas by 2030 exceeds the levels consistent with the Paris Agreement by more than 120%.
According to the report, 11 of the world’s top 20 fossil fuel producers have even boosted their plans to extract coal, oil and gas since the COP28 transition pledge was adopted in 2023.
Russia and India, for example, are singled out in the report for heavily expanding plans for new coal by 2030 – with India hitting a record renewables roll-out while also planning the largest increase in coal production by volume (7.3 exajoules). An exajoule is a unit of energy, with the primary energy supply of the US in 2024 at nearly 92 exajoules.
Saudi Arabia plans the largest expansion of oil by 2030 when taking into account sheer volume (4.2 exajoules), but the comparatively smaller oil industry of COP30 host nation Brazil is set for a 56% expansion between 2023 and 2030.
The report highlighted that “every year that countries fail to make progress in curbing fossil fuel production and use, it becomes harder for the world to achieve its climate goals”.
“While many countries have committed to a clean energy transition, many others appear to be stuck using a fossil-fuel-dependent playbook, planning even more production than they were two years ago,” said lead author Derik Broekhoff, climate policy director at the Stockholm Environment Institute (SEI).
Christiana Figueres, a former head of the UN’s climate body, said the report should serve as a “warning and a guide”, adding that while renewables will crowd out fossil fuels eventually, governments need to take “deliberate action” to close the gap in time to meet the Paris Agreement climate goals.
To achieve those, another of the report’s authors, Emily Ghosh of SEI, said that by COP30, governments must “commit to expand renewables, phase out fossil fuels, manage energy demands, and implement community-centered energy transitions”.
The post Colombia announces fossil fuel phase-out summit to be held in 2026 appeared first on Climate Home News.
Pages
The Fine Print I:
Disclaimer: The views expressed on this site are not the official position of the IWW (or even the IWW’s EUC) unless otherwise indicated and do not necessarily represent the views of anyone but the author’s, nor should it be assumed that any of these authors automatically support the IWW or endorse any of its positions.
Further: the inclusion of a link on our site (other than the link to the main IWW site) does not imply endorsement by or an alliance with the IWW. These sites have been chosen by our members due to their perceived relevance to the IWW EUC and are included here for informational purposes only. If you have any suggestions or comments on any of the links included (or not included) above, please contact us.
The Fine Print II:
Fair Use Notice: The material on this site is provided for educational and informational purposes. It may contain copyrighted material the use of which has not always been specifically authorized by the copyright owner. It is being made available in an effort to advance the understanding of scientific, environmental, economic, social justice and human rights issues etc.
It is believed that this constitutes a 'fair use' of any such copyrighted material as provided for in section 107 of the US Copyright Law. In accordance with Title 17 U.S.C. Section 107, the material on this site is distributed without profit to those who have an interest in using the included information for research and educational purposes. If you wish to use copyrighted material from this site for purposes of your own that go beyond 'fair use', you must obtain permission from the copyright owner. The information on this site does not constitute legal or technical advice.
This site is not the official webpage of the Industrial Workers of the World.