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Brazil’s election could determine the fate of the Amazon

Grist - Thu, 10/15/2026 - 01:45

Brazilians filling out presidential ballots earlier this month saw three-term incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva pitted against Senator Flávio Bolsonaro. Environmental observers saw something else: a referendum on the future of the Amazon rainforest.

“We are very serious about the risks for the Amazon if Flávio wins the election, because he is a climate denier,” said Carlos Nobre, a climate scientist currently at the University of São Paulo’s Institute for Advanced Studies. “If this candidate is elected, certainly deforestation in the Amazon will increase. We are in a very serious situation.”

Flávio Bolsonaro, son of imprisoned former president Jair Bolsonaro, is campaigning on an agribusiness-friendly, deregulatory agenda. In the first round of voting, he finished 2.2 million votes ahead of Lula. With neither candidate securing the requisite 50 percent needed to be declared the winner outright, the two will head to a runoff on October 25.

President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, left, and Senator and presidential candidate Flávio Bolsonaro in October 2026. Pablo Porciuncula / Mauro Pimentel / AFP vai Getty Images

Taken at face value, Bolsonaro and Lula would appear to have similar rainforest policies. Lula promises net-zero deforestation by 2030; Bolsonaro promises zero illegal deforestation by 2029. Legal is the operative term. Bolsonaro’s platform argues for an “agile, modern” environmental licensing process that “will no longer serve as a way to block those seeking to invest and create jobs.”

Monica de Bolle, an economist at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, argues a Bolsonaro win would amount to a repeat of his father’s term, which saw an increase in clearing, a plummeting of environmental infraction notices, and a near doubling of carbon emissions in Amazonia in 2019 and 2020, compared to the average levels between 2010 and 2018.

Jair Bolsonaro “basically dismantled the enforcement structure,” de Bolle said. “Which is, I think, what would likely happen again.”

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Omnipresent but non-voting in the coming election is the Amazon itself, which stands at the edge of farm country and stores something on the order of 175 billion metric tons of carbon, equivalent to roughly 15 years of global carbon dioxide emissions. The planet’s largest tropical rainforest, the Amazon is big enough to make its own weather: Water drawn up by its trees ultimately accounts for up to half of the region’s rainfall.

Affronting the forest is a menagerie of harms, from drought to fire and logging to clear-cuts. And while the Brazilian Forest Code permits landowners to cut up to 20 percent of their Amazon properties, the monitoring network MapBiomas recently estimated that 97 percent of Amazon land clearing in 2025 showed signs of illegality.

An aerial view of an illegal mining area at Tapajos Environmental Protection Area in the Amazon rainforest, in southwestern Para State, Brazil, in May 2026. Evaristo Sa / AFP via Getty Images

Under Lula’s current term, clearing rates in the Amazon have fallen every year. If Brazil returned to the elder Bolsonaro’s deforestation pace, the rainforest would lose about 17,600 square miles over the next four years, versus about 8,900 square miles at the 2025 rate: a difference in landmass approximately the size of Belize.

The first-round election results suggest agricultural interests likely played a role in Bolsonaro’s strong performance. Lula lost vote share in almost every municipality in the country relative to his 2022 results. But in municipalities where agriculture accounts for more than half of the local economy, his vote share fell by nearly 8 points: triple his loss in non-agricultural areas.

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If Brazil’s next administration accelerates clearing, the effects could be devastating for the rainforest, the people who call it home, and the industries on which its continued health depends. For decades, forest and climate scientists have warned of a brutal tipping point: Cut enough of the forest down and the water cycle won’t be strong enough to sustain a rainforest ecosystem. Instead, the area would morph into savanna and degraded forest — causing a net release of planet-warming carbon and depriving nearby soybean farms of rain.

The actual tipping point in question is multi-causal and difficult to estimate, but the most frequently quoted deforestation threshold is 20 to 25 percent clearing across Amazonia, a range first suggested in 2018 by Nobre and U.S. conservation biologist Thomas Lovejoy. The duo argued that “negative synergies between deforestation, climate change, and widespread use of fire” would send the forest into a feedback loop once this threshold is passed. A Nature study published in May of this year estimated the tipping-point range to be closer to 22 to 28 percent clearing when paired with the 1.5 to 1.9 degrees Celsius (2.7 to 3.4 degrees Fahrenheit) of global warming the world is likely to experience by mid-century.

About 18 percent of the Amazon — which spans nine countries — and 22 percent of the Brazilian Amazon have already been cleared.

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Nico Wunderling, a climate scientist at Goethe University Frankfurt who led May’s Nature study, estimated a return to Jair Bolsonaro-era practices would clear about 1 percent of the Amazon basin’s rainforest over the next presidential term. At this rate, “we would reach the danger zone by the middle or end of the 2030s,” he told Grist.

Conversely, if Lula delivered on his pledge of net-zero deforestation by the early 2030s, Wunderling argues runaway feedback might yet be avoided. While climate change is a global process requiring global coordination, deforestation is “the lever that can be pulled back more easily,” he said.

The late 2030s is beyond the term covered by this election cycle, and the exact science of the tipping point remains uncertain. But the result of this election could still set the Amazon rainforest on its ultimate path. Ronaldo Christofoletti, an oceanographer at the Federal University of São Paulo, likened the situation to insuring a vehicle. “Why do I pay the insurance? Because an accident can happen. When? I don’t know.”

For Christofoletti, the electoral stakes are all about managing this uncertainty. “Do not expect magic from scientists,” he said. “Do trust that the tipping point is getting closer.”

The Bolsonaro campaign did not respond to a request for comment.

In the meantime, organized agribusiness is pushing for Bolsonaro in the runoff election. The Parliamentary Agricultural Front, Brazil’s primary agribusiness lobby, recently endorsed Flávio Bolsonaro, who has promised that the caucus will choose his minister of agriculture.

Even if Bolsonaro doesn’t win the October 25 runoff, agribusiness may already have done so. On October 4, Bolsonaro’s party won 121 House seats, the most any party has held since the Brazilian Constitution was promulgated in 1988. An analysis by the Brazilian Amazon-based news platform Sumaúma suggests that half of the incoming House has voted to loosen environmental licensing and limit Indigenous land claims.

For agribusiness, that means the currently off-limits may soon be in play. “Even if Lula gets reelected,” said de Bolle, “he’s going to be very weak.”

This story was originally published by Grist with the headline Brazil’s election could determine the fate of the Amazon on Oct 15, 2026.

Categories: H. Green News

Magic: The Gathering draws a bad hand with El Niño

Grist - Thu, 10/15/2026 - 01:30

On a Saturday morning in September, the game shop Dice Dojo was packed. Players sat shoulder-to-shoulder at tables lining the far North Side Chicago shop with board games stacked from floor to ceiling and a giant yellow Pikachu on the wall. They were eagerly waiting to crack open boxes of the latest Magic: The Gathering trading cards and face off in a tournament.

Noel Camilotas spent most of the day pacing past rows of packed tables and helping players decipher the rules of the hotly anticipated new set. When he was done for the day, he walked out of the store with two boxes of cards.

Despite that haul, Camilotas had hoped for more.

“Some of the products I requested are not going to be available for me anytime soon,” he said. “One of the other products is not going to be available for purchase at all.”

Wizards of the Coast, a division of the toy giant Hasbro, announced in August that delivery of its new set of Magic cards would be delayed throughout North America. The company pointed to a drought-powered traffic jam at the Panama Canal through which nearly 6 percent of global maritime trade and about 40 percent of U.S. container traffic pass. The drought this year has been magnified by the El Niño climate pattern, which spikes air and surface water temperatures in parts of the Pacific Ocean and sets off extreme weather like floods and drought across the globe. The phenomenon has compounded the effects of rising global temperatures, adding to drought conditions in Central America and upending international maritime traffic.

A bottleneck in the Panama Canal has made it harder for fans of Magic: The Gathering to buy the game’s latest Reality Fracture expansion set. Pat Nabong / Chicago Sun-Times

The delay is an early warning sign for how susceptible one of the world’s most important shipping lanes is in the face of a warming planet and what experts warn could be the strongest El Niño in history.

“Supply will be tighter at launch than anticipated as those boosters make their way through the logjam,” according to the card game’s website.

Magic: The Gathering has amassed more than 50 million players worldwide since its introduction in 1993. The game has birthed an entire media ecosystem as well as a robust resale market for rare cards. The rapper Post Malone reportedly purchased a one-of-a-kind card based on the One Ring from a Lord of the Rings-themed set for $2 million.

To win the game, players take the role of powerful, spell-slinging wizards and compete to see who can draw the most cards, cast the biggest spells, and defeat opponents by reducing their life points to zero. Cards are spells, and each player has an endlessly customizable deck of cards that draw on a massive catalogue that grows several times a year. New sets are released every few months.

The model has been tremendously successful. The game has made its parent company Hasbro more than $1 billion in revenue in just the first half of this year. But the trading game now faces an unexpected real-world challenge: El Niño.

“Even in our little corner of the multiverse, the supply chain affects us.”

“The result of an El Niño for Central America is a very strong drought,” said Ross Griffith, the head of Americas freight pricing at Argus Media, a U.K.-based agency tracking commodity prices. Between May and August this year, parts of Panama received rainfall about a third below the long-term average, raising concerns about water levels at the freshwater reservoirs that supply drinking water to the region and provide the water needed to lift and lower ships through the canal’s system of locks.

People play Magic: The Gathering at Dice Dojo, a game shop in Chicago. Pat Nabong / Chicago Sun-Times

As a result, the Panama Canal Authority began restricting traffic, cutting daily vessel crossing slots by nearly 20 percent. That bottleneck drove up the fees shipping companies paid to cross the canal in September to as high as $5.3 million, topping the previous $4.6 million record set the previous month. Such restrictions are not new. During the last El Niño in 2023, daily crossings had dropped even lower.

El Niño is expected to last into early 2027 and could exacerbate Panama’s upcoming dry season, according to Ross, who added that the delayed Magic cards could be just the beginning of El Niño-induced knock-on effects.

“If you have drought conditions on top of a typically more dry period, even what little replenishment you were getting then is probably not coming,” he said. “That can be really dangerous.”

So, at least for now, card collectors in Chicago and beyond will likely be waiting longer than usual.

“Some products are now coming in waves,” Emma Hendren, the general manager at Dice Dojo, said on that Saturday in September. “We’re not going to have it available for sale today. We’re not certain when it’s going to arrive, unfortunately.”

Magic players are used to dealing with limited quantities or even delayed cards, but the current El Niño-powered disruption is new.

“Magic: The Gathering is all fantasy and all that stuff,” Joshua Wiltsie, who has been playing Magic for 30 years, said. “Even in our little corner of the multiverse, the supply chain affects us.”

This story was originally published by Grist with the headline Magic: The Gathering draws a bad hand with El Niño on Oct 15, 2026.

Categories: H. Green News

Wind developer signs community benefit deals worth up to $160m to end stalemate over called-in projects

Renew Economy - Thu, 10/15/2026 - 00:12

UK developer and local council sign community benefit deals for two projects stuck in limbo after being "called" in by he LNP state government.

The post Wind developer signs community benefit deals worth up to $160m to end stalemate over called-in projects appeared first on Renew Economy.

Categories: J1. Green Tech Industry & Utilities

Grid-scale renewables hit record levels of investment sign-offs, but the pace still needs to quicken

Renew Economy - Wed, 10/14/2026 - 20:58

A record amount of large-scale renewable generation has reached financial close, the federal government says, but the pace needs to quicken further if emissions reduction goals are to be reached.

The post Grid-scale renewables hit record levels of investment sign-offs, but the pace still needs to quicken appeared first on Renew Economy.

Categories: J1. Green Tech Industry & Utilities

China’s Envision Energy lines up major wind and eight-hour battery deal at site of Australian mineral sands mine

Renew Economy - Wed, 10/14/2026 - 20:38

China's Envision lines up its first wind and battery deal at a new energy park to be hosted in an Australian mineral sands mine, with other projects soon to be announced.

The post China’s Envision Energy lines up major wind and eight-hour battery deal at site of Australian mineral sands mine appeared first on Renew Economy.

Categories: J1. Green Tech Industry & Utilities

Labor waves through Australia’s biggest wind farm – a project “not possible” under state Coalition buffer policy

Renew Economy - Wed, 10/14/2026 - 20:25

Final all-clear for huge wind and battery project comes just in the nick of time, with a change of government threatening to deliver a default 2 km buffer zone between regional renewables projects and homes.

The post Labor waves through Australia’s biggest wind farm – a project “not possible” under state Coalition buffer policy appeared first on Renew Economy.

Categories: J1. Green Tech Industry & Utilities

High Court coal mine ruling factors in exported emissions. Why isn’t federal Labor doing the same?

Renew Economy - Wed, 10/14/2026 - 19:51

The Albanese government is making great strides on clean energy, while at the same time supporting the ongoing betrayal of future generations through fossil fuel approvals.

The post High Court coal mine ruling factors in exported emissions. Why isn’t federal Labor doing the same? appeared first on Renew Economy.

Categories: J1. Green Tech Industry & Utilities

Red-headed Woodpecker by Zac Cody

Audubon Society - Wed, 10/14/2026 - 15:44

Painted: 10/7/2025About the Mural: Cast in drifting shadows, a mural splays across the concrete underpass stretching across a portion of the Wabash River in Warren County, Indiana. Broad strokes of...

Categories: G3. Big Green

Restoring Grasslands, Strengthening Ranching: Why the RANCH Act Matters for the Great Plains

Audubon Society - Wed, 10/14/2026 - 14:29

Across the Great Plains, grasslands are the foundation of thriving ranching operations, healthy wildlife populations, and resilient rural communities. Yet these critical landscapes continue to face...

Categories: G3. Big Green

Summer Camp Highlights in the Great Plains

Audubon Society - Wed, 10/14/2026 - 13:43

A summer full of sunshine, adventure, discovery, and a little bit of dirt under the fingernails! Check out what our campers explored this summer at Spring Creek Prairie Audubon Center, Iain Nicolson...

Categories: G3. Big Green

Kentucky Warbler Migration from the Great Plains to the Tropics

Audubon Society - Wed, 10/14/2026 - 12:45

While it has long been known that many songbirds complete vast migrations from the temperate zones to the tropics each year, surprisingly few species have been tracked along their entire journey...

Categories: G3. Big Green

Letter from the Vice President

Audubon Society - Wed, 10/14/2026 - 12:41

As we welcome fall across the Great Plains, I find myself reflecting on the many ways conservation takes shape. Some moments are big and worthy of celebration, while others may seem small at first...

Categories: G3. Big Green

Fall Newsletter: Letter from the Vice President

Audubon Society - Wed, 10/14/2026 - 12:41

As we welcome fall across the Great Plains, I find myself reflecting on the many ways conservation takes shape. Some moments are big and worthy of celebration, while others may seem small at first...

Categories: G3. Big Green

Defending the Ancestors: Oka (1990)

Global Justice Ecology Project - Wed, 10/14/2026 - 12:22

The Siege on Kanehsata:ke (the Oka Crisis) was a 78-day standoff in 1990, sparked by plans to expand a golf course onto sacred Mohawk land in Kanehsatà:ke. The crisis exposed Canada’s deep-rooted colonialism and became a defining moment in the Indigenous land rights movement.

Categories: B4. Radical Ecology

Café del Decrecimiento n.º 15 "Tejiendo alternativas radicales: construyendo solidaridad global entre movimientos"

Global Tapestry of Alternatives - Wed, 10/14/2026 - 10:23

Café del Decrecimiento n.º 15 "Tejiendo alternativas radicales: construyendo solidaridad global entre movimientos" Fecha y lugar * Fecha: viernes 16 de octubre de 2026 * Hora: 4:30 p. m. (hora local de Copenhague) * Lugar: Folkets Hus, primer piso, Stengade 50, 2200 Copenhague, Dinamarca

Categories: B5. Resilience, Third Nature, and Transition

Portada

Global Tapestry of Alternatives - Wed, 10/14/2026 - 10:22

[ Tejedores] TGA es una “red de redes”. Cada una de esas redes actúa en diferentes partes del planeta identificando y conectando Alternativas. Son los Tejedores. [ Apoyos] Diversas organizaciones progresitas, post-desarrollo y/o anti-capitalistas apoyan esta iniciativa. Tambien lo hacen académicos, activistas y referentes.

Categories: B5. Resilience, Third Nature, and Transition

Eventos

Global Tapestry of Alternatives - Wed, 10/14/2026 - 10:21

Eventos Próximos eventos Café del Decrecimiento n.º 15 "Tejiendo alternativas radicales: construyendo solidaridad global entre movimientos" - 16 de octubre Global of () es un proceso que conecta alternativas radicales al actual sistema destructivo de todo el mundo, en particular del Sur Global. En este taller presencial y co-creativo, primero ofreceremos una introducción al trabajo de GTAGTAGTAGTAGTATapestryAlternativesTapestryAlternativesTapestryAlternativesGTAGTAGTAGTATapestryAlternativ…

Categories: B5. Resilience, Third Nature, and Transition

Main page

Global Tapestry of Alternatives - Wed, 10/14/2026 - 10:19

Global of [Weavers] GTA is a “network of networks”. Each of those networks acts in different parts of the planet by identifying and connecting Alternatives. They are the Weavers. [Endorsements] Many progressive, post-developent and anticapitalist organizations around the world endorse this initiative. Also many academics, activists and referents do so.GTAGTAWeaversGTAGTAalternativesAlternatives

Categories: B5. Resilience, Third Nature, and Transition

The Festival that’s been bringing radical queer film-making to Toronto for 10 years

Spring Magazine - Wed, 10/14/2026 - 09:21

In 2026, the Toronto Queer Film Festival is celebrating ten years of bringing 2SLGBTQIA+ filmmaking to Toronto, with radical roots and a focus on amplifying...

The post The Festival that’s been bringing radical queer film-making to Toronto for 10 years first appeared on Spring.

Categories: B3. EcoSocialism

Degrowth Cafe #15 "Weaving Radical Alternatives: Building global solidarity between movements"

Global Tapestry of Alternatives - Wed, 10/14/2026 - 08:58

Degrowth Cafe #15 "Weaving Radical Alternatives: Building global solidarity between movements" Date and venue * Date: Friday, October 16th, 2026 * Time: 4:30 pm (Copenhagen local time) * Venue: Folkets Hus, first floor, Stengade 50, 2200 Copenhagen, DenmarkGTAalternativesGTAGTA

Categories: B5. Resilience, Third Nature, and Transition

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Brazil’s election could determine the fate of the Amazon

Magic: The Gathering draws a bad hand with El Niño

Wind developer signs community benefit deals worth up to $160m to end stalemate over called-in projects

Grid-scale renewables hit record levels of investment sign-offs, but the pace still needs to quicken

China’s Envision Energy lines up major wind and eight-hour battery deal at site of Australian mineral sands mine

Labor waves through Australia’s biggest wind farm – a project “not possible” under state Coalition buffer policy

High Court coal mine ruling factors in exported emissions. Why isn’t federal Labor doing the same?

Red-headed Woodpecker by Zac Cody

Restoring Grasslands, Strengthening Ranching: Why the RANCH Act Matters for the Great Plains

Summer Camp Highlights in the Great Plains

Kentucky Warbler Migration from the Great Plains to the Tropics

Letter from the Vice President

Fall Newsletter: Letter from the Vice President

Defending the Ancestors: Oka (1990)

Café del Decrecimiento n.º 15 "Tejiendo alternativas radicales: construyendo solidaridad global entre movimientos"

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Eventos

Main page

The Festival that’s been bringing radical queer film-making to Toronto for 10 years

Degrowth Cafe #15 "Weaving Radical Alternatives: Building global solidarity between movements"

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