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Are there enough minerals for solar power expansion to help mitigate climate change?

Global mineral supplies are large enough to support solar development for climate change mitigation.

A 2023 analysis of 75 emissions-reduction scenarios found that projected median mineral demand largely remains within known geological resources. Projected median demand for silver was about 68,000 metric tons, compared to 530,000 tons of estimated reserves; cadmium demand was 38,000 tons against 500,000 tons of reserves.

Tellurium may constrain cadmium-telluride panels, a minority of the global solar market, but research suggests improved refining and material efficiency could substantially reduce this strain.

Recycling can further reduce demand for newly mined minerals by recovering silver, copper, silicon, and other components for reuse in future panels. Recent innovations are improving recycling cost-effectiveness, while federal programs continue to support domestic mineral supply chains and recycling research. 

The main challenge lies in expanding production and supply chains, not mineral shortages.

Go to full rebuttal on Skeptical Science or to the fact brief on Gigafact

This fact brief is responsive to quotes such as this one.

Sources

AP News Study: Enough rare earth minerals to fuel green energy shift

Joule Future demand for electricity generation materials under different climate mitigation scenarios

USGS Byproduct Mineral Commodities Used for the Production of Photovoltaic Cells

Yale School of the Environment As Millions of Solar Panels Age Out, Recyclers Hope to Cash In

Resources, Conservation and Recycling Innovating the recycling of silicon-based solar panels with an eco-friendly alkaline leaching process

MIT Climate Can solar panels be recycled?

U.S. Department of Energy End-of-Life Management for Solar Photovoltaics

The White House Fact Sheet: President Donald J. Trump Delegates Defense Production Act Authority with Respect to Recoverable Critical Minerals and Materials That Are Essential to Our National Defense

Columbia Law School Sabin Center for Climate Change Law Rebutting 33 False Claims About Solar, Wind, and Electric Vehicles

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About fact briefs published on Gigafact

Fact briefs are short, credibly sourced summaries that offer "yes/no" answers in response to claims found online. They rely on publicly available, often primary source data and documents. Fact briefs are created by contributors to Gigafact — a nonprofit project looking to expand participation in fact-checking and protect the democratic process. See all of our published fact briefs here.

This is a re-post from Yale Climate Connections by Jeff Masters

When a weak 45-mph tropical storm named Harvey moved through the Lesser Antilles Islands in August 2017 and then petered out in the central Caribbean Sea, no one could have suspected that the meager clump of clouds that remained would go on to become the second-costliest weather disaster in world history. But after crossing Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula into the Gulf of Mexico, Harvey was rejuvenated, rapidly intensifying into a ferocious Category 4 hurricane that hit Texas just north of Corpus Christi.

Harvey's true mischief came after it stalled inland as a tropical storm for two days, dumping at least 40 inches of rain across a gigantic area from Houston to Port Arthur — larger than the entire state of Delaware. The storm total of 60.58 inches (1,534 mm) at Nederland, Texas, was the heaviest single amount ever recorded from a tropical cyclone or its remnants in the U.S. With damages of $164 billion (2026 USD) — mostly from flooding, Harvey became a historical catastrophe exceeded only by Hurricane Katrina of 2005.

When all of Harvey’s rainfall runoff rushed toward the ocean, it encountered the blocking influence of seawater being pushed inland by the persistent onshore winds of the tropical storm, creating a significant compound flood event — coastal flooding that resulted from a combination of storm surge and river runoff unable to drain into the ocean because of the storm surge waters piled up against the coast.

A similar setup could cause an even worse catastrophe in the future. Climate change is causing more intense, slower-moving hurricanes, increased rainfall, and higher sea levels. But traditional risk assessment methods typically consider one hazard at a time — ignoring compound flood events — leading to an underestimation of the danger. If we include all the ways climate change will likely increase flooding, the future flood risk along significant portions of the U.S. Gulf and Atlantic coasts is nearly certain to make them unlivable by late this century, even under a moderate global warming scenario.

How climate change worsens the danger

A 2023 study looking at the flooding from Harvey near Port Arthur, Texas, found that 19% of the flood area occurred because of compound flooding. Under a global warming scenario where a repeat of Harvey hits with an additional sea level rise of 0.57 meters (1.9 feet), accompanied by 18% more total rainfall — plausible in 2050 — this area would increase to 33%. A potential sea level rise of 1.6 meters (5.2 feet) and an additional 50% in total rainfall, plausible by 2100, would cause the compound flooding area to rise to 46%, increasing the number of structures impacted by about a factor of 23 compared to 2017, causing tens of billions in additional damage.

Figure 1. Storm-total rainfall from Hurricane Harvey, August 24-31, 2017. Harvey dumped over 40 inches (yellow colors) in Houston, with isolated amounts over 50 inches (pink colors) south of Houston and northwest of Port Arthur. Image credit: NOAA.

There are three main ways climate change can increase flood risk along the U.S. Atlantic and Gulf coasts:

1. An increase in the frequency of more intense hurricanes and ones moving more slowly at landfall, which will dump more rain
2. Increased heavy rainfall because a warmer atmosphere holds more water vapor
3. Sea level rise

The relative importance of these three factors in a future warmer climate will vary depending upon the location, according to a 2022 study. This study found that across the Gulf of Mexico and Florida coastlines, the increase in rainfall was expected to be the largest driver. For parts of the Southeast and mid-Atlantic, the increase in the number of intense or slow-moving hurricanes would predominate. And along the upper mid-Atlantic and New England coastlines, sea level rise will dominate the future compound flood risk.

Figure 2. The main driver of compound flooding on the U.S. coast. Across the Gulf of Mexico and Florida coastlines, the increase in rainfall is the largest driver (yellow colors), while the increase in storm frequency (of more intense, slow-moving storms) has the largest impact for parts of the Southeast and mid-Atlantic (blue). Along the upper mid-Atlantic and New England coastlines, sea level rise causes the most impact (green). Locations with no clear main driver are labeled NA (gray). (Image credit: Gori et al., Tropical cyclone climatology change greatly exacerbates US extreme rainfall–surge hazard, Nat. Clim. Chang. 12, 171–178 (2022), https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-021-01272-7, open access)

Sea level rise has already led to a massive increase in flood risk

Sea level rise from all causes – for example, human-caused climate change, natural tectonic processes, and subsidence from groundwater pumping — has already led to a massive increase in the risk of damaging coastal flooding from storm surges alone, according to a 2026 study, Human-driven sea-level rise has quadrupled the frequency of coastal sea-level extremes since 1900. Relative sea level rise from all causes made a 100-year coastal flood in 1900 into a one-in-five-year flood or less by 2005 in Key West, Jacksonville, Atlantic City, and Maine. Because sea level rise is accelerating, the odds of coastal flooding will increase even faster than the increases already observed since 1900.

Flood risks are growing

Charleston, South Carolina: What was a one-in-10-year coastal flood in 1901 occurred 17 times in 2025.
Galveston, Texas: What was a one-in-10-year flood in 1904 occurred nine times in 2024.
Atlantic City, New Jersey: What was a one-in-10-year coastal flood in 1911 occurred 10 times in 2024.
Miami, Florida: What was a one-in-10-year coastal flood in 1931 occurred 14 consecutive days during the "king tides" of October 2025.
Key West, Florida: What was a one-in-10-year coastal flood in 1913 occurred an astonishing 26 out of 27 days during the "king tides" of October 2025; what was a one-in-100-year flood in 1913 has occurred three times in the past 10 years.

Data: NOAA

Dramatic rises in compound flood risk are coming

A return period refers to how often we can expect a weather event of a given severity to occur. For example, we use rainfall statistics from NOAA to compute how often a flood with a 1% chance of occurring in a given year will recur — which is defined as a one-in-100-year storm, with a return period of 100 years.

A 2022 paper, Tropical cyclone climatology change greatly exacerbates US extreme rainfall-surge hazard, studied the odds of a truly extreme compound flood event — a one-in-100-year storm surge occurring at the same time as a one-in-100-year rainfall event. Historically, the return period of such an event was about once every 200-500 years along the coastlines of the Gulf of Mexico and southeast Atlantic (up to the Chesapeake Bay), shifting to once every 1,000 years or even less frequently along the New England coastline.

But under an extreme global warming scenario for the year 2100, these odds would generally (with some exceptions, see Fig. 4) increase by seven- to 36-fold in the South and 30- to 195-fold to the north — a massive rise in extreme flood risk. Although this result was for an extreme global warming scenario, the strong signal found implies that a significant increase in extreme flood risk would occur even in a moderate global warming scenario.

Figure 3. The return period in years in 2005 for what was a one-in-100-year flood in 1900 because of relative sea level rise. Data is plotted from the 2026 paper, Human-driven sea-level rise has quadrupled the frequency of coastal sea-level extremes since 1900. For example, a 100-year coastal flood in 1900 in Jacksonville, Florida, and Atlantic City, New Jersey, was a one-in-two-year flood by 2005 (red circles with the number "2" in them). This change in flood risk is for sea level rise alone — additional increases in flood risk because of changes in precipitation are not included.

The greatest rises in risk were to the north, because climate change is expected to bring greater increases in extreme precipitation closer to the poles. This was also the finding of a 2020 study, More meteorological events that drive compound coastal flooding are projected under climate change, which predicted that the greatest increases in compound flood threat should occur north of 40°N latitude.

Figure 4. The change in return period for an extreme compound flood, defined as a one-in-100-year storm surge occurring at the same time as a one-in-100-year rainfall event, under an extreme global warming scenario. Left side of table: the return period in the historical climate (1980-2005). Right side: return period in the 2070-2100 period under an extreme global warming scenario, using the median value from eight different climate models. The return period increases by a factor of 14 to 265 for these nine cities. Data taken from the supplemental materials in: Gori et al., Tropical cyclone climatology change greatly exacerbates US extreme rainfall–surge hazard, Nat. Clim. Chang. 12, 171–178 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-021-01272-7.

Main cause of future increased compound coastal flood risk: more intense and slower-moving hurricanes

The model used in the 2022 study projected that the top 10% of most intense hurricanes would, along the majority of the U.S. coast, increase in intensity by 15-30% and move 20-30% slower in the future compared to the historical period. “The increase in storm intensity coupled with the decrease in translation speed drives an increased likelihood to observe both extreme rainfall and extreme storm tide in the future,” the authors wrote. 

A substantial inland compound flood risk along the Gulf of Mexico coast

Rivers draining into the Gulf of Mexico have seen large increases in their maximum streamflow in recent decades (commonly 20-40% increases), making them susceptible to increased compound flooding. A 2021 paper found long-term increases in the frequency of compound storm surge and heavy rainfall flooding along the rivers of the northeastern Gulf of Mexico. Surprisingly, these compound flood events were largest a good distance inland, near the limit of where tidal influences stopped — not at the coast where compound events are usually expected. A 2026 study focused on North and South Carolina also found a considerable expansion of the threat of compound flooding inland in a future warmer climate.

A Hurricane Sandy-like compound flood event: five times more likely by 2100?

Hurricane Sandy in October 2012 caused devastating surge-driven flooding across heavily populated coastal areas in New York City, resulting in more than $91 billion (2026 USD) in damages. A 2024 paper, Climate Change Contributions to Increasing Compound Flooding Risk in New York City, found that a Sandy-like event can be expected about once every 150 years in the present climate. But climate change — through sea level rise and an increase in hurricane strength and rainfall — can be expected to make a similar storm about a one-in-65-year event by 2050, and a one-in-30-year event by 2100, under an emissions scenario slightly higher than the trajectory humanity is currently on.

Increased compound flood threat from hurricanes earlier in the season

A 2022 paper, Earlier onset of North Atlantic hurricane season with warming oceans, found that initial threshold dates of continental U.S. named storm landfalls have trended earlier by two days per decade since 1900. Modeling work suggests that the length of hurricane season will continue to increase because of climate change. A 2017 study found that a hurricane season that was two months longer (May-December) would increase the number of flood-risk days by 28-180% along rivers in four Southeast U.S river basins.

Figure 5. Predicted water levels at the Carrollton gage on the Mississippi River in New Orleans as of July 10, 2019. The river was running high, at 16 feet above sea level, and the city’s levees protect the city to a height of 20 feet. The storm surge from Hurricane Barry was predicted to reach that level on July 13. The last time water levels that high were observed at this point on the Mississippi was in the Great Flood of 1927. Image credit: NOAA.

As I wrote in a 2019 post, New Orleans’ Achilles Heel: A Hurricane Storm Surge During a Mississippi River Flood?, a trend toward earlier hurricanes increases the risk of storm surge moving up the Mississippi River that could overwhelm the levees in New Orleans, since the river tends to run high in late spring and early summer. This situation was feared in July 2019, when Hurricane Barry sent a storm surge up the river when the river was already running high from early-summer runoff (Fig. 5). Fortunately, Barry ended up delaying its intensification into a hurricane until after it passed the mouth of the Mississippi, resulting in a storm surge that was not as high as initially forecast.

Other compound hurricane threats

Climate change is likely to make two other types of compound hurricane threats more severe. One of these was covered in my previous post, The emerging danger of post-hurricane heat waves (2026). In addition, more intense hurricanes with higher winds and heavier rains have the potential to create a double-whammy of high-end wind damage and extreme inland flooding simultaneously, overwhelming infrastructure and emergency preparedness and response efforts that could have handled one of these hazards alone, but not both together.

A preprint of a 2026 paper that has not yet undergone peer review, Global Warming Amplifies Inland Compound Risks From Tropical Cyclones, found that when comparing the recent climate (1981-2020) with an extreme climate-change projection for later this century (2061-2100), the annual probability of compound wind and precipitation extreme hazards ranking in the 99th percentile globally increases by 61-115% within 100 kilometers of the coast, and further escalates by 92-204% in areas 100-500 kilometers inland. This inland amplification is driven by more intense landfalling hurricanes and the increased moisture available caused by the 7% increase in water vapor holding capacity of the air per degree Celsius of warming. Hurricane Helene’s impact in 2024 in western North Carolina can be regarded as a harbinger storm in this regard.

Coastal areas becoming unlivable

A 2020 paper, Sea-level rise exponentially increases coastal flood frequency, found that for the most susceptible sites around the U.S., the odds of a one-in-50-year coastal flood “are likely to double approximately every five years into the foreseeable future.” This finding took into account not just storm surges from hurricanes but also from more common coastal storms such as Nor'easters. According to the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, most coastal engineering works in the U.S. are designed for return periods of 50 to 100 years, so the increase in flood risk at so many sites represents a drastic increase in vulnerability. And if high-end sea-level rise projections of one meter (3.28 feet) by 2100 come true, sea-level rise will likely cause "once-in-a-lifetime" coastal flooding events to occur nearly every day before 2100. (NOAA's 2022 sea level rise forecast gives 50% odds that sea level rise along the contiguous U.S. coast by 2100 will exceed 0.7 meters.)

Figure 6. The return period in years in 2050 for what was a one-in-100-year flood in 2005 because of relative sea level rise. Data is plotted using data from the 2020 paper, Sea-level rise exponentially increases coastal flood frequency, in combination with observed and predicted sea level rise from The Virginia Institute of Marine Science annual Sea Level Rise Report Cards. For example, a one-in-100-year coastal flood in 2005 in Key West, Florida, is predicted to recur every 0.04 years (two weeks) by 2050 (red circle with the number "0.04" in it). This change in flood risk is for sea level rise alone — additional increases in flood risk because of changes in precipitation are not included. The forecasts out to 2050 are generated using the observed acceleration trend fitted with a quadratic curve (since sea level rise is increasing exponentially, and a straight-line linear fit is not appropriate). Note that these forecasts are not based on a climate model and may be underestimated.

If we now add in the massive additional increase in flood risk resulting from compound flooding, good luck trying to insure your home. The huge increase in climate change-induced flood risk from sea level rise, heavier rainfall, and stronger/slower-moving hurricanes is nearly certain to force abandonment of portions of the U.S. Gulf and Atlantic coasts by late this century, even under a moderate global warming scenario. A 2026 study, The Growth Effects of Natural Disasters: Evidence From A Novel Global Dataset Over 1970-2023, found that a one-in-100-year flood reduces GDP by about 0.5%, so it is easy to see how the coast could quickly become unlivable if once-in-a-lifetime floods are occurring nearly yearly in low-lying regions. Indeed, hurricane flooding has already led to the unofficial abandonment of several U.S. communities, and a number of others are already at significant risk, which I will detail in a series of future posts (spoiler alert: Barrier islands are high on the list).

https://bsky.app/profile/drjeffmasters.bsky.social/post/3mnhxhqjjtc2g

The only recourse we will have is to spend vast amounts of money to defend the most important places and retreat from or abandon the rest. A society-shaking mass migration of millions of Americans away from the coast is inevitable in future decades because of increased climate change-induced flood risk. The trigger for the beginning of this exodus may be only a few years away. To understand what’s coming, I recommend reading my 2024 post, When will climate change turn life in the U.S. upside down?

Related posts on sea level rise

• Book review: “On the Move” is a must-read account of U.S. climate migration (2024)
• Book review: “The Great Displacement” is a must-read (2023)
• Part one of my three-part sea level rise series: How fast are the seas rising? (2023)
• Part two of my three-part sea level rise series: Eight excellent books on sea level rise risk for U.S. cities (2023)
• Part three of my three-part sea level rise series: 30 great tools to determine your flood risk in the U.S. (2023)
• Bubble trouble: Climate change is creating a huge and growing U.S. real estate bubble (2023)
• How sea level rise contributes to billions in extra damage during hurricanes (2022)

Bob Henson contributed to this post.

This article first appeared on Yale Climate Connections and is republished here under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.

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A listing of 29 news and opinion articles we found interesting and shared on social media during the past week: Sun, August 2, 2026 thru Sat, August 8, 2026. Stories we promoted this week, by category:

Climate Change Impacts (11 articles)

• El Niño and climate change are affecting rice crops in weird ways Researchers explain how El Niño and global warming are combining to create "the haves and the have-nots." Grist, Tik Root & Frida Garza, July 31, 2026.
• Heatwaves and raging fires mark Europe’s ‘dystopian’ summer This article about the recent record-breaking heat and wildfires in Europe dives into the science about the causes, quoting several experts. ABC News, Romy Stephens, Alex Lim and Fran Rimrod, Aug 1, 2026.
• Climate shocks hit hydropower in Southern Africa, reviving interest in coal The Daily Climate, Chisapi Kumbutso, Aug 02, 2026.
• Climate change could dramatically reduce water flowing from the West's headwaters Phys.org, Northern Arizona University, Aug 02, 2026.
• Washington`s wildfires are a warning for the entire U.S. Dry conditions and climate change are putting forests across the country at risk for disaster Scientific American, Mary Randolph, Aug 03, 2026.
• Factcheck: How nuclear, gas, wind and solar power are affected during heatwaves Carbon Brief, Molly Lempriere, Aug 04, 2026.
• French wildfires are turning animals’ homes into ‘a desert of ashes’ The catastrophic fires have potential to do long-term damage to many wild animal populations, but a toad species could be the most affected. National Geographic, Melissa Hobson, Aug 4, 2026.
• Butterflies are on the move as the planet warms: new research A comprehensive survey indicates that one in ten known butterfly species have already shifted in range. The Conversation, Shawan Chowdhury, Aug 05, 2026.
• Summer of wildfires sees catastrophe bonds approach new record Wildfires raging across the U.S. and Europe this summer are pushing more and more insurers into slashing their risk by issuing catastrophe bonds to investors, and the so-called CAT bonds on the market are already nearing levels from all of last year. Callaway Climate Insights, David Callaway, Aug 06, 2026.
• Climate change created conditions for Canada fires, scientists say, as Trump blames mismanagement A new study calculates that human-caused climate change doubled the likelihood of the tinderbox weather conditions that sparked Canada’s massive summer wildfires. The Okaloosa Herald, EHN Curators, Aug 06, 2026.
• Heatwaves have killed millions. Here’s how scientists tally lives lost Two very different methods are used to estimate the human toll of heatwaves such as those now hitting parts of Asia and Europe. Nature, Kaia Glickman, Aug 6, 2026.

Climate Policy and Politics (6 articles)

• ECB official warns climate crisis poses growing threat to `core financial stability` Exclusive: As wildfires rage, Frank Elderson says more work needed to assess risk from collapse of ecosystem services The Guardian, Richard Partington, Aug 01, 2026.
• Climate Hushing Strategy May Cost Democrats At The Polls Argued from a foundation of ample research evidence, this colorfully written op-ed criticizing ''climate hushing'' suggests that tip-toeing around climate change isn't grounded in facts, and that addressing public concerns about climate change can be part of a winning electoral package. CleanTechnica, Steve Hanley, Aug 03, 2026.
• Opinion: Why local action is key to surviving America's climate crisis 'The current administration in Washington denies that climate change is even real,'' starkly reminding us that meaningful climate change mitigation is a political matter and begins with voting. Politico, William S Becker, Aug 03, 2026.
• Appeals Court Says E.P.A. Cannot Block Billions in Climate Grants The funds have been frozen since early in President Trump’s second term. New York Times, Claire Brown, Aug 04, 2026.
• Q&A: What is in China`s new five-year plan for climate change? The new plan does not include any major new targets, instead consolidating and reaffirming existing policies, but does include significant signals on key policy areas, such as non-carbon dioxide (CO2) greenhouse gases, global climate governance and carbon markets. Carbon Brief, Carbon Brief Staff, Aug 06, 2026.
• Trump Administration to Pay RWE to Cancel Wind Leases It was the fifth such deal struck by the administration to get companies to drop offshore wind projects. NYT, Brad Plumer, Aug 06, 2026.

Climate Education and Communication (4 articles)

• Why is gaining citizen support for climate policies so difficult? Phys.org, Autonomous University of Barcelona, Jul 31, 2026.
• A majority of Americans don`t actually fit either climate camp An analysis of 20 years of polling data shows how age, education and income—in addition to political affiliation—shape views on climate policy Anthropocene, Sarah DeWeerdt, Aug 04, 2026.
• Climate Trunk - The Persuadable Majority Progress on climate depends on speaking to the movable middle. Climate Trunk, John Lang, Aug 5, 2026.
• Extreme heat impact on travel, family increasingly felt by Americans: poll Americans are increasingly feeling a personal impact from extreme heat, according to a new poll from The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research. AP News, Alexa St. John and Linley Sanders, Aug 06, 2026.

Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation (3 articles)

• Climate adaptation at its limits, says one scientist A climate scientist says Earth is "passing the limits of adaptation" when it comes to withstanding the effects of climate change. NPR, Michelle Aslam, Jul 31, 2026.
• Q&A: Does the world need `carbon capture and storage` to reach net-zero? Carbon capture and storage is an expedience for the fossil fuel industry and frequently the target of emotionally overheated and shallow criticism, but also stands as a poster child for ''nothing is simple," as illustrated in this excellent explanation. Carbon Brief, Josh Gabbatiss, Aug 03, 2026.
• `The obsession with endless growth can only end in tears`: your questions on extreme weather this summer answered 'Every fraction of a degree of warming that we can prevent will help millions of people and billions of other forms of life,'' which pretty much answers why Skeptical Science exists and what each of us can help to achieve; we can do better or worse by fractions of degrees, and we choose better. The Guardian, Jonathan Watts and Ajit Niranjan, Aug 03, 2026.

Miscellaneous (2 articles)

• 2026 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #31 A listing of 28 news and opinion articles we found interesting and shared on social media during the past week: Sun, July 26, 2026 thru Sat, August 1, 2026. Skeptical Science, Bärbel Winkler & Doug Bostrom, Aug 02, 2026.
• 15 new books for five new takes on climate change Recent years have seen a boom in books on climate change. This collection spans from techno-optimism to philosophical pessimism. Yale Climate Connections, Michael Svoboda, Aug 06, 2026.

Climate Law and Justice (1 article)

• Supreme Court sets date for blockbuster climate case The case, Suncor v. Boulder, has spurred calls for two of the justices to recuse themselves as they weigh whether federal law or the Constitution bars local governments from suing fossil fuel companies over the costs of addressing climate change. Politico E&E News, Lesley Clark, Aug 05, 2026.

Climate Science and Research (1 article)

• A Short History of Climate Science #17 of the ClimateTrunk graphics published ClimateTrunk, John Lang, July 15, 2026.

Public Misunderstandings about Climate Science (1 article)

• Fixing one of climate`s worst plots The 1930s were hot over the U.S. Midwest, but not that hot The Climate Brink, Andrew Dessler, Aug 03, 2026.

If you happen upon high quality climate-science and/or climate-myth busting articles from reliable sources while surfing the web, please feel free to submit them via this Google form so that we may share them widely. Thanks!

Open access notables

‘Towards electric vehicle misinformation communities: Shared narratives, networked validation, and reassurance among Australian consumers, McEwen et al., Energy Research & Social Science

Electric vehicles (EVs) provide a pathway to sustainable transport systems. Yet public understanding of EVs is shaped by contested information environments in which misinformation circulates alongside facts. Existing EV misinformation research has largely focused on individual EV beliefs, attitudes, and information deficits. However, less is known about how EV misinformation becomes socially meaningful in everyday life. Drawing on qualitative ethnographic data from 122 Australian consumers, we introduce the concept of EV misinformation communities to help interpret how participants share narratives and engage in social interactions and everyday sense-making practices relating to misinformation about EVs across online and offline settings. Our analysis explores how EV misinformation becomes socially meaningful through symbolic framing, networked validation, and reassurance. We suggest that countering EV misinformation requires socio-cultural understanding of people's ideologies, dispositions and circumstances, and recognition of the value and sense of shared experiences that misinformation provides. Policy and programme interventions to accelerate the transition to EVs should seek to foster community through opportunities for creating positive value and shared experiences in addition to the provision of information.

Managing climate overshoot: a risk-based strategy for climate stabilisation, Taylor et al., Frontiers in Climate

Global warming is accelerating, yet current climate strategies centred on emissions reduction and carbon removal are unlikely to prevent temperatures from crossing dangerous tipping points. Although essential, these approaches operate too slowly to counter near-term warming driven by Earth’s growing energy imbalance, weakening carbon sinks, and amplifying climate feedbacks. This mismatch reflects systemic shortcomings in climate risk assessment that underestimate nonlinear risks and the escalating costs of delay. We argue that climate stabilisation should be treated as a risk-management challenge rather than an incremental policy process. This requires explicit comparison of intervention risks with those of continued warming. We outline a comparative risk–risk framework that integrates mitigation, carbon removal, and cooling interventions, and suggests that a viable strategy may require combining rapid decarbonisation and expanded carbon removal with carefully governed cooling interventions to limit near-term warming. Without aligning response timelines with accelerating climate threats, the likelihood of irreversible Earth-system disruption will continue to grow.

Ecological Transformations of Coastal Wetlands of the Conterminous United States in Response to Contemporaneous Sea-Level Rise, Neville et al., Earth s Future

Coastal wetlands are among the most important ecosystems on the planet but are increasingly imperiled by accelerating sea-level rise (SLR). In the past, biogeomorphic feedbacks have allowed coastal wetlands to adjust vertically and persist through periods of accelerated SLR. Recent rates of SLR are faster than any in recent geologic history, making the fate of coastal wetlands highly uncertain. Here, we synthesize surface elevation table marker-horizon data from 442 stations in coastal wetlands across the conterminous United States to evaluate if they are largely persisting in the face of accelerated SLR, or if they are undergoing ecological transformations of submergence and/or migration. Across the conterminous United States, 11% of coastal wetlands in this sample are on a trajectory of submergence whereas 73% of sites are lagging SLR, but may be able to migrate upslope, and 16% of sites are gaining elevation at rates which exceed SLR indicating persistence and an ability to migrate seaward. Vulnerability of these systems to ecological transformation varies across the three coasts of the conterminous United States which, span large biogeomorphic gradients. These results serve as one of the first national syntheses of coastal wetland elevation trends and may help focus conservation and restoration efforts in a rapidly changing future.

Long-Term Trends in the Ionospheric Equivalent Slab Thickness as a Proxy of Climate Change in the Ionosphere, Pignalberi & Alberti, Geophysical Research Letters

Anthropogenic greenhouse emissions do not affect all parts of Earth's atmosphere in the same way. While the lower atmosphere warms, the upper atmosphere is expected to cool and contract, and this may also change the ionosphere, the region containing charged particles (plasma). In this study, we analyzed nearly three decades of observations from three stations spanning equatorial to high latitudes. We focused on ionospheric equivalent slab thickness, a quantity that measures how broadly plasma is distributed around the main ionospheric peak. We found that slab thickness generally decreases over time, although the strength of the decrease is neither spatially uniform nor equally detectable at all latitudes. We then linked these changes to the plasma scale height, which controls how fast plasma density decreases with altitude. The results show that the ionospheric profile is becoming narrower with time, especially at middle and high latitudes. This suggests that long-term climate-related changes in the upper atmosphere are also affecting the vertical structure of ionospheric plasma. 

Disrupted Skies: How Offshore Wind Farms Alter Flight Behavior of Breeding Seabirds, Liang et al., Ecology and Evolution

Offshore wind farms are expanding rapidly as part of global climate mitigation efforts, but their effects on seabird movement behavior remain incompletely understood. While collision risk has received substantial attention, less is known about how turbines may alter flight routes through evasive behavior and meso-avoidance, particularly near breeding colonies where repeated commuting flights may accumulate energetic costs. We investigated flight responses of breeding Bridled Terns (Onychoprion anaethetus) to offshore wind turbines near their colony using high-resolution satellite tracking data collected at 1-s intervals and lower-resolution data collected at 1-h intervals. We quantified within-trajectory flight traits, including mean redirection, number of turns, flight speed, and flight altitude, in relation to turbine exposure. We assessed avoidance using both proximity-based and direction-sensitive metrics. At the near-colony scale, we tested whether flight behavior changed with increasing alignment between the trajectory bearing and turbine bearing from the colony. At the broader breeding-range scale, we tested whether behavior differed inside and outside wind farms or with distance to turbines, while accounting for colony distance, wind, and landscape variables. Bridled Terns showed increased mean redirection and lower flight altitude when trajectories were more closely aligned with turbine directions from the colony, suggesting localized route alteration in obstacle-facing directions. However, flight behavior was not significantly associated with turbine proximity, nor did it differ significantly inside and outside wind farms. These findings suggest that offshore wind farms may influence seabird movement through localized, direction-dependent route alteration rather than simple distance-dependent responses, highlighting the value of movement-context metrics and within-trajectory traits in wind farm impact assessments.

From this week's government/NGO section:

Interim heat mortality monitoring report, England: May and June 2026, UK Health Security Agency

During the May and June 2026 heat events there were an estimated total of 2,877 heat-associated deaths, an estimated 753 heat-associated deaths occurred during the May heat episode; an estimated 2,124 heat-associated deaths occurred during the June heat episode, and the mortality burden is already close to the highest annual totals previously recorded by UKHSA. Although these estimates remain provisional and are subject to revision as more complete mortality data becomes available, the magnitude of the impact is already comparable with some of the highest annual heat-associated mortality estimates previously reported through UKHSA’s heat mortality monitoring programme. For context, UKHSA estimated 2,295 heat-associated deaths during the whole of summer 2023, 1,311 during summer 2024 and 1,504 during summer 2025. The highest annual estimate recorded to date remains summer 2022, when 2,985 heat-associated deaths were observed across 5 heat episodes.

Climate change increases likelihood of compounding drivers of severe wildfire conditions in France and Spain, World Weather Attribution

The authors perform a super rapid analysis of trends in fire-conducive weather conditions in the two affected areas in France and Spain, analyzing observations only. In both study regions observations show strong trends of increasing likelihood and severity with global warming. 99 articles in 50 journals by 827 contributing authors

Physical science of climate change, effects

Climate modes synergistically influence marine heatwaves in the North Sea, Lin et al., Ocean science Open Access pdf 10.5194/os-22-2287-2026

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Uncertainties too large to predict tipping times of major Earth system components from historical data, Science Advances, 10.1126/sciadv.adl4841 40 cites.

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Observations of climate change, effects

Climate warming and atmospheric deposition jointly accelerate the Antarctic Peninsula atmosphere–glacier–land–ocean mercury loop, Zhou et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Open Access 10.1073/pnas.2613472123

Climate warming preconditions Himalayan slopes for post-earthquake cascading hazards, Gao et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-026-03885-2

Impact attribution of anthropogenic forcing on lake surface temperature, Wang et al., Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-026-76221-z

Long-term observed changes in air temperature extremes over Romania (1901-2023), Amihesei et al., Weather and Climate Extremes Open Access 10.1016/j.wace.2026.100941

Long-Term Trends in the Ionospheric Equivalent Slab Thickness as a Proxy of Climate Change in the Ionosphere, Pignalberi & Alberti, Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2026gl123868

Pan-tropical ocean warming drives record-breaking rainfall in South China in April 2024, Xing et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-026-03894-1

Threefold increase in atmospheric–riverine compound heatwaves under climate change, Zhou et al., Nature Geoscience Open Access 10.1038/s41561-026-02040-y

Understanding the Climatology and Characteristics of Arctic Moisture Intrusions, Woods et al., Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres Open Access 10.1029/2025jd044159

Winter warm spells in the pyrenees: synoptic drivers and snowmelt impacts (1960–2024), Bonsoms & Serrano-Notivoli, Atmospheric Research Open Access pdf 10.1016/j.atmosres.2026.109245

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Summer Monsoon Drying Accelerates India's Groundwater Depletion Under Climate Change, Earth s Future, 10.1029/2024ef004516 38 cites.

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Instrumentation & observational methods of climate change, effects

Enhanced detectability of forced signal in monthly precipitation changes, Duan et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-026-03684-9

GLBD-FED: a global first-hand in-situ daily temperature dataset preferentially with a 00:00–24:00 UTC 24 h window (1981–2024), Yang et al., Earth system science data Open Access 10.5194/essd-18-5739-2026

Post-Season Review of Rapid Attribution of 2025 Summer Extreme Heat in China, Sun et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2026.07.014

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
The ERA5 global reanalysis from 1940 to 2022, Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 10.1002/qj.4803 290 cites.

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Modeling, simulation & projection of climate change, effects

Climatic Impacts of a Warmer Mediterranean Sea Simulated by the Fully Coupled Community Earth System Model, Version 2 (CESM2), Toker et al., Journal of Climate 10.1175/jcli-d-25-0540.1

Compound climate hazards revealed by global modeling of drought, heatwaves, and land degradation, Liu et al., Global and Planetary Change 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2026.105637

Intensifying Short-Interval Heatwave-To-Rainfall Compound Extremes and Associated Exposure in the Indus Basin, Wen et al., International Journal of Climatology 10.1002/joc.70534

Multi-model ensemble mean shows accelerating global below-ground warming, Ju et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology Open Access 10.1016/j.agrformet.2026.111382

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
The radiative feedback continuum from Snowball Earth to an ice-free hothouse, Nature Communications, 10.1038/s41467-024-50406-w 14 cites.

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Advancement of climate & climate effects modeling, simulation & projection

Advective, adiabatic and diabatic contributions to heat extremes simulated with the Community Earth System Model version 2, Röthlisberger et al., Weather and Climate Dynamics Open Access 10.5194/wcd-7-1363-2026

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Accurate assessment of land–atmosphere coupling in climate models requires high-frequency data output, Geoscientific model development, 10.5194/gmd-17-1869-2024 32 cites.

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Cryosphere & climate change

Delayed freeze-up in the western Arctic Ocean fueled by subsurface heat release, ZHOU et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2026.07.018

The Modèle Atmosphérique Régional – Intelligence Artificielle (MAR-IA): surface meltwater over Greenland, Tedesco et al., cryosphere Open Access 10.5194/tc-20-4235-2026

The recent enhancement of the surface melt over the Antarctic Peninsula dictated by thermodynamics, Zhang et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-026-76310-z

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Recent tropical Andean glacier retreat is unprecedented in the Holocene, Science, 10.1126/science.adg7546 27 cites.

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Sea level & climate change

Coastal Flood Risk Governance in Newfoundland, Canada: A Multidimensional Analysis of Assessment, Management, and Communication, Parvez & Akter, Risk Analysis 10.1111/risa.70327

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
The influence of realistic 3D mantle viscosity on Antarctica’s contribution to future global sea levels, Science Advances, 10.1126/sciadv.adn1470 23 cites.

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Paleoclimate & paleogeochemistry

Calcium isotopes link ocean acidification to Aptian–Albian foraminiferal extinctions, Chen et al., Science 10.1126/science.aed9359

New classes of climate model emulators to improve paleoclimate reconstructions, Gaudin & Khodri, Geoscientific model development Open Access 10.5194/gmd-19-7135-2026

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Plant, insect, and fungi fossils under the center of Greenland’s ice sheet are evidence of ice-free times, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 10.1073/pnas.2407465121 6 cites.

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Biology & climate change, related geochemistry

Climate Change Predicted to Trigger an Upward Altitudinal Range Shift and Boost the Abundance of a Montane Rock Face Specialist, the Wallcreeper (Tichodroma muraria), Luisier et al., Open Access CRIS of the University of Bern Open Access 10.48620/99848

Declining coccolithophore blooms in the North Atlantic and Western Barents Sea, Yu et al., Science Advances Open Access 10.1126/sciadv.adw5268

Distribution of suitable habitats and bloom risk assessment for Sargassum horneri in the China Seas under global climate change, Mo et al., Marine Environmental Research 10.1016/j.marenvres.2026.108325

Ecological Transformations of Coastal Wetlands of the Conterminous United States in Response to Contemporaneous Sea-Level Rise, Neville et al., Earth s Future Open Access 10.1029/2025ef006836

Sustained transpiration masks weakened canopy cooling and emerging carbon constraints during heatwaves in a riparian poplar plantation, Li et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 10.1016/j.agrformet.2026.111390

The synoptic meteorology of coral reef high water temperature events in the Gulf of Eilat (Aqaba), Israel, McGowan et al., Scientific Reports Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41598-026-65507-3

Underestimated climate contributions: Dynamic attribution of vegetation changes in China incorporating soil moisture and vapor pressure deficit, Zheng et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 10.1016/j.agrformet.2026.111395

Warming associated with forest integrity loss in global wildland-urban interfaces, Huang et al., Anthropocene 10.1016/j.ancene.2026.100569

Warming Drives Large-Scale Shifts in Post-Disturbance Vegetation Dynamics and Expansion of Deciduous Trees in the Boreal Forest in a Dynamic Vegetation Model, Layritz et al., Journal of Geophysical Research Biogeosciences Open Access 10.1029/2025jg009176

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
High heat tolerance, evaporative cooling, and stomatal decoupling regulate canopy temperature and their safety margins in three European oak species, Global Change Biology, 10.1111/gcb.17439 46 cites.

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GHG sources & sinks, flux, related geochemistry

Climate Constraints on the Methane-Carbon Efficiency of Global Wetlands: Spatiotemporal Drivers and Future Projections, Zhu et al., Earth s Future Open Access 10.1029/2025ef008003

Communicating Climate Change in Africa: Role Perception and Role Shifting among Environmental Journalists in Nigeria, Oduolowu et al., Environmental Communication 10.1080/17524032.2026.2711229

Compound Effects of Warming and Wetting Enhance Soil Respiration on the Earth's Third Pole, Shen et al., Global Biogeochemical Cycles 10.1029/2026gb009376

Detection and quantification of agricultural methane plumes using MethaneAIR through targeted scene selection, wavelet denoising, and divergence-integral analysis, Smale et al., Atmospheric chemistry and physics Open Access 10.5194/acp-26-10661-2026

Drought stress on the global vegetation carbon sink: Capacity decline in nearly 70% of regions, LIU et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2026.07.020

Ecological Transformations of Coastal Wetlands of the Conterminous United States in Response to Contemporaneous Sea-Level Rise, Neville et al., Earth s Future Open Access 10.1029/2025ef006836

Elevated Spring Methane Emissions in a Sub-Arctic Peatland Fen, Montemayor et al., Journal of Geophysical Research Biogeosciences Open Access 10.1029/2026jg009699

Estimating carbon storage and flux in sea urchin barrens following kelp forest collapse, Rogers-Bennett et al., Marine Environmental Research 10.1016/j.marenvres.2026.108297

Quantifying Methane Emissions From a Rich Fen With Uncrewed Aircraft Systems in Boreal Alaska, Tomlin et al., Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres 10.1029/2026jd046424

Quantifying national, state, and oil/gas field methane emissions and trends in the US (2019–2024) through high resolution inversion of satellite observations, Estrada et al., Atmospheric chemistry and physics Open Access pdf 10.5194/acp-26-10629-2026

Responses of Riverine Dissolved Organic Carbon to Global Warming and Permafrost Thaw on the Tibetan Plateau, Pan et al., Global Biogeochemical Cycles 10.1029/2026gb009157

Urban CO2 flux characteristics observed at an eddy-covariance tower in northeastern Seoul, An et al., Atmospheric Environment 10.1016/j.atmosenv.2026.122252

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Towards an ecosystem capacity to stabilise organic carbon in soils, Global Change Biology, 10.1111/gcb.17453 55 cites.

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CO2 capture, sequestration science & engineering
Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
The politics of carbon management in Austria: Emerging fault lines on carbon capture, storage, utilization and removal, Energy Research & Social Science, 10.1016/j.erss.2024.103697 6 cites.

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Decarbonization

Assessing strategies to decarbonise embodied carbon impacts of residential buildings in Indian cities: case of Ahmedabad, Trivedi et al., Environmental Research Infrastructure and Sustainability Open Access pdf 10.1088/2634-4505/ae87c7

Disrupted Skies: How Offshore Wind Farms Alter Flight Behavior of Breeding Seabirds, Liang et al., Ecology and Evolution Open Access 10.1002/ece3.74089

Hydrogen supply chains across Chinese provinces for production and transportation, Bi et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-026-03869-2

Peak coal electricity under rapid electricity demand growth conditions: A case study of Indonesia, the Philippines, and Vietnam, Dzikrurrokhim et al., Energy Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.enpol.2026.115532

Sceptical, pragmatic, and innovative teleworkers: Exploring commuting carbon footprints and subjective well-being, Vu et al., Energy Research & Social Science Open Access 10.1016/j.erss.2026.104894

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Integration of Renewable Energy in Microgrids and Smart Grids in Deregulated Power Systems: A Comparative Exploration, Advanced Energy and Sustainability Research, 10.1002/aesr.202400088 88 cites.

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Geoengineering climate

Climate benefit and ecological cost trade-offs for ocean iron fertilization, Yu et al., Nature 10.1038/s41586-026-10795-y

Aerosols

Heatwaves and particulate matter increases: An Italian case study, Faggi et al., Atmospheric Environment Open Access 10.1016/j.atmosenv.2026.122246

Invisible Ship Tracks Produce Mean-State Cloud Microphysics Perturbation in Tropical Trade Cumulus, Wright, Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research) Open Access 10.5281/zenodo.20076712

Climate change communications & cognition

Challenges and next steps in climate disaster communication, Houston & First, Nature Climate Change 10.1038/s41558-026-02714-w

Finding Gaia: exploring climate change through gamification, Gargiulo et al., Geoscience Communication Open Access pdf 10.5194/gc-9-331-2026

Local stories in climate change communication, Cheng, Nature Climate Change 10.1038/s41558-026-02694-x

Psychological barriers to improving carbon competence, Herberz et al., Open MIND Open Access pmh:10.17605/osf.io/qp76t

Psychological inoculation against climate doom, O'Boyle et al., Open MIND pmh:10.17605/osf.io/74cgf

Social influence shapes climate attitudes and action, Hampton et al., Nature Climate Change 10.1038/s41558-026-02711-z

Untrustworthy sources on Facebook and Instagram in 2020: Concentrated exposure but no attitudinal effects, Bergeron-Boutin et al., Science Advances Open Access 10.1126/sciadv.adz6502

‘Towards electric vehicle misinformation communities: Shared narratives, networked validation, and reassurance among Australian consumers, McEwen et al., Energy Research & Social Science Open Access 10.1016/j.erss.2026.104902

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Climate change engagement of scientists, Nature Climate Change, 10.1038/s41558-024-02091-2 45 cites.

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Agronomy, animal husbundry, food production & climate change

Climate Change Shows Inverse Effects on Grain Yield and Protein Concentration in West Africa, Abigaba et al., Earth s Future Open Access 10.1029/2026ef008409

Discovery of a covalent FGFR2-selective inhibitor overcoming clinically-acquired resistance mutations, Huang et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-026-76339-0

Engaging farmers with climate projections: integrating long-term climate risk into farm business resilience planning, Malakar et al., Climate Risk Management Open Access pdf 10.1016/j.crm.2026.100859

Food system contributions to future planetary boundary transgressions: a multiscale modelling assessment of scenarios, Luchtenbelt et al., The Lancet Planetary Health Open Access 10.1016/j.lanplh.2026.101492

Halochromic modulation of amorphous calcium carbonate crystallization driven by pH-responsive bioinspired pigments, Sardhalia et al., Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-026-75888-8

Leveraging climate-smart agriculture for improved resource-use efficiency: evidence from rice farmers in Kwara State, Nigeria, Ajiboye et al., Frontiers in Climate Open Access pdf 10.3389/fclim.2026.1878309

Relearning with the Land: Intergenerational food literacy pathways for resilience in a changing climate, Adelodun et al., Environmental Science & Policy 10.1016/j.envsci.2026.104462

Vulnerability to high temperature shapes global warming impacts on rice yield, Jian et al., Science Advances Open Access 10.1126/sciadv.aed9226

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
The centennial legacy of land-use change on organic carbon stocks of German agricultural soils, Global Change Biology, 10.1111/gcb.17444 26 cites.

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Hydrology, hydrometeorology & climate change

Greenhouse warming exacerbates El Niño-induced Indian monsoon droughts, Zhao et al., Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-026-76049-7

Improving Daily Streamflow Forecasting under Nonstationarity with a Physics-Informed, Decomposition-Enhanced Deep Learning Model, Jiang et al., Journal of Hydrometeorology 10.1175/jhm-d-25-0166.1

Reservoir Drought Resilience Under Future Warming Scenarios: Regional Disparities Across Heavily Regulated US Basins, Eldardiry et al., Earth s Future Open Access 10.1029/2025ef007984

Understanding the Climatology and Characteristics of Arctic Moisture Intrusions, Woods et al., Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres Open Access 10.1029/2025jd044159

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Understanding Climate Change and Anthropogenic Impacts on the Salinization of Low-Lying Coastal Groundwater Systems, Earth s Future, 10.1029/2024ef004737 20 cites.

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Climate change economics

Global trade-offs between consumption, carbon prices and equity, Li et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-026-75815-x

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Estimating economic losses from perceived heat stress in a global south country, Bangladesh, Urban Climate, 10.1016/j.uclim.2024.102072 11 cites.

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Climate change mitigation public policy research

Environmental taxation and biofuel production in the EU: Heterogeneous effects across producer scales, Auteri, Energy Policy 10.1016/j.enpol.2026.115525

From corporate net-zero pledges to credible climate action, Gudipudi et al., Nature Sustainability 10.1038/s41893-026-01908-6

From project participants to policy shapers: How communities influence renewable energy governance, Eitan, Energy Research & Social Science Open Access 10.1016/j.erss.2026.104906

Pathways towards social license for offshore wind energy: Modelling strategies to reduce conflict and increase acceptability, Condie et al., Energy Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.enpol.2026.115523

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Renewable energy transition and regional integration: Energizing the pathway to sustainable development, Energy Policy, 10.1016/j.enpol.2024.114270 65 cites.

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Climate change adaptation & adaptation public policy research

Aspirations in a warming world: Modeling migration and education decisions under climate risk in Senegal, Choquette-Levy et al., Global Environmental Change 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2026.103215

Back to the future: A mixed-methods approach for developing event-based participatory storylines to advance climate risk assessments, Casartelli et al., Climate Risk Management Open Access 10.1016/j.crm.2026.100865

Climate-resilient infrastructure and the future of the SDGs, Zaqout et al., Environmental Research Infrastructure and Sustainability Open Access pdf 10.1088/2634-4505/ae900b

Coastal Flood Risk Governance in Newfoundland, Canada: A Multidimensional Analysis of Assessment, Management, and Communication, Parvez & Akter, Risk Analysis 10.1111/risa.70327

Global vulnerability assessment of mobile telecommunications infrastructure to climate hazards using crowdsourced open data, Oughton et al., Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-026-76197-w

Traditional, indigenous and local knowledge for climate adaptation: trends, themes and governance implications (2000–2025), Zhang et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access pdf 10.1016/j.accre.2026.07.019

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Rare and highly destructive wildfires drive human migration in the U.S., Nature Communications, 10.1038/s41467-024-50630-4 28 cites.

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Climate change impacts on human health

Rapid Increase in Tropical Humid Heat Stress and Its Predictability in a Warming World, Saha et al., Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres 10.1029/2026jd046437

The GHEMMS checklist: design, conduct, and reporting guidance for studies modelling climate mitigation actions and their health cobenefits, Reynolds et al., The Lancet Planetary Health Open Access 10.1016/j.lanplh.2026.101474

The past and future impact of climate change on childhood malaria in Africa, Carlson et al., Nature Open Access 10.1038/s41586-026-10840-w

Welcome to the Calentón: How Puerto Rican Community Leaders Respond to Extreme Heat, López et al., Environmental Communication 10.1080/17524032.2026.2711233

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Climate change could fuel urinary schistosomiasis transmission in Africa and Europe, Global Change Biology, 10.1111/gcb.17434 19 cites.

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Climate change & geopolitics

Energy transition and climate vulnerability: Energy policy in an era of geopolitical fragmentation, Chen et al., Energy Policy 10.1016/j.enpol.2026.115536

The immediate impact of crises on energy transitions: Policy responses to the Russian invasion of Ukraine in Finland, Germany, and Poland, Haukkala et al., Energy Research & Social Science 10.1016/j.erss.2026.104881

 

Other

Coupled air–sea interactions drove and sustained the 2013–2016 North Pacific marine heatwave, Jiang et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-026-76096-0

Mid-2000s reversal of North Atlantic warming pattern reshapes hemispheric circulation and Eurasian cold extremes, Wu et al., npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41612-026-01492-8

The cooling paradox: Rising air conditioner adoption in Bangladesh as a driver of energy insecurity and compounding climate risk, Rahman et al., Energy Research & Social Science Open Access 10.1016/j.erss.2026.104886

Unveiling Future Individual and Compound Heat and Air Pollution Extremes in China: Insights for Mitigation, Zhang & Gao, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 10.1175/bams-d-25-0333.1

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Expansive learning of climate scientists towards transdisciplinarity, Climate Risk Management, 10.1016/j.crm.2024.100642 3 cites.

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Informed opinion, nudges & major initiatives

Managing climate overshoot: a risk-based strategy for climate stabilisation, Taylor et al., Frontiers in Climate Open Access pdf 10.3389/fclim.2026.1872846

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Achieving net zero greenhouse gas emissions critical to limit climate tipping risks, Nature Communications, 10.1038/s41467-024-49863-0 71 cites.

Articles/Reports from Agencies and Non-Governmental Organizations Addressing Aspects of Climate Change

Groundwater Supply East of Interstate 95 (Virginia), Virginia Department of Environmental Quality

As directed by Senate Joint Resolution No. 25, the Virginia Department of Environmental Quality (DEQ) completed a study of the groundwater supply in the Commonwealth east of Interstate 95 (I-95). This area generally encompasses the Virginia Coastal Plain (VCP) aquifer system. Under current conditions, the VCP aquifer system has limited capacity for significant new withdrawals. The estimated capacity for new withdrawals varies by region, from a maximum of 360,000 gallons per day in the eastern Northern Neck to less than 30,000 gallons per day in some western regions near I-95. Only the upper end of this range would support a significant new withdrawal for industrial use. The confined Potomac aquifer is the largest and deepest in the VCP, accounting for 70% of total reported and estimated groundwater withdrawals in the Eastern Virginia Groundwater Management Area. The confined Yorktown-Eastover aquifer system accounts for 95% of total reported and estimated groundwater withdrawals in the Eastern Shore Groundwater Management Area. Combining the two regulated areas, the major uses of groundwater are industrial (35% of total), private domestic (34%), and public water supply (26%).

California New Car Dealers Association Releases Q2 2026 Auto Outlook. Q2 2026 CA Auto Outlook: Hybrid Market Share Climbs to Highest Level on Record in California, California New Car Dealers Association

Hybrid vehicles accounted for 22.1 percent of California’s new vehicle market through June, the highest share in the report’s data series and up from 19.5 percent for all of 2025. Hybrid share has now increased in each of the past four years. Quarterly share climbed from 20.9 percent in the first quarter to 23.2 percent in the second. Hybrid registrations totaled 191,000 units in the first half of the year, and every one of those vehicles was sold through a franchised new car dealership. Franchised dealerships accounted for 75.7 percent of combined hybrid, ZEV, and plug-in hybrid registrations statewide. Gas powered vehicles remained the largest single segment of the market at 57.6 percent of registrations, up from 54.0 percent in 2025.

Characterization and Screening-Level Risk Evaluation Report. Vicinity of Moss Landing Power Plant, Moss Landing, California, Terraphase Engineering, Vistra Corporation

On January 16, 2025, a lithium-ion battery fire occurred within ML300 at the Moss Landing Power Plant (MLPP). The fire was confined to the ML300 structure and did not spread to other on-site facilities. Emergency response actions were implemented promptly, including precautionary evacuations that were lifted the following day based on air monitoring results. The authors evaluate whether releases associated with the fire event pose a potential threat to human health or the environment and whether additional investigation or response actions are warranted. Chemicals measured in the sampled off-site soil, sediment, and surface water do not indicate lasting conditions expected to pose an unacceptable risk to people or ecological receptors. For purposes of the risk evaluation, health-protective assumptions and treated measured chemical concentrations are considered as if they were related to the fire. Some nickel concentrations in sediment exceeded ecological screening levels in Hester Marsh and the Mosquito Abatement Observation Area. The authors attributed these results to natural variability and marsh conditions rather than lasting fire-related impacts. No further human-health or ecological-risk evaluation, off-site investigation, or response action is warranted at this time for the sampled locations and environmental media.

Colorado River Basin Water Security Survey, Morning Consult, Walton Family Foundation

Nearly 9-in-10 voters across key states are very concerned about wildfire risks, threats to clean drinking water, and lowering water levels in the Colorado River Basin. Four-in-five voters across all seven states and in the Colorado River Basin counties say addressing the drought effects from the Colorado River is an important priority to them personally and the majority say it is important for the federal government or their state government to make addressing water security a priority this year. Nine-in-ten voters support restoring wetlands to help protect communities from fires, increasing agricultural efficiency to reduce water use, boosting municipal water conservation, and managing forests to limit wildfire damage. Support is broad across the political spectrum, ranging from more than eight-in-ten Republicans and Independents to more than nine-in-ten Democrats. Similar shares say each approach is an important priority, with more than half saying forest management and boosting municipal conservation should be a top priority. About half of voters across the seven states prefer strategies to address water conservation that are both long-term and short-term, to help manage the drought into the future. Ensuring reliable water supply is a top priority for voters.

Thirsty Power. Coal and gas will leave us high and dry, Sonoda et al., Sierra Club, Wisconsin Chapter

Wisconsin’s current dirty energy power fleet– including coal, gas, and nuclear plants– withdraws 1.34 trillion gallons of water annually. This is more than 7 times all of the municipalities in Wisconsin combined, and 18 times more than agricultural irrigation. Meanwhile, solar and wind use so little water that the U.S. Energy Information Administration does not even track their use. Five new gas plants, known or assumed to be proposed for data centers, would use 142 million gallons of water a year on average– the equivalent of the annual drinking water for 284 million people– and the majority of which would be needed during summer months when energy and water use has been strained by drought and heat.

The 50 States of Solar: Q2 2026 Quarterly Report, North Carolina Clean Energy Technology Center

This report series focuses on cataloging and describing important proposed and adopted policy changes affecting solar customer-generators of investor-owned utilities (IOUs) and large publicly owned or nonprofit utilities, i.e., those serving at least 100,000 customers. In the second quarter of 2026, 45 states plus Washington, DC and Puerto Rico took a total of 284 actions related to distributed solar policy and rate design. Of the 284 actions cataloged, the most common were related to distributed generation compensation rules (53), followed by community solar (48), and residential fixed charge or minimum bill increases (45).

Interim heat mortality monitoring report, England: May and June 2026, UK Health Security Agency

Suring the May and June 2026 heat events there were an estimated total of 2,877 heat-associated deaths, an estimated 753 heat-associated deaths occurred during the May heat episode; an estimated 2,124 heat-associated deaths occurred during the June heat episode, and the mortality burden is already close to the highest annual totals previously recorded by UKHSA. Although these estimates remain provisional and are subject to revision as more complete mortality data becomes available, the magnitude of the impact is already comparable with some of the highest annual heat-associated mortality estimates previously reported through UKHSA’s heat mortality monitoring programme. For context, UKHSA estimated 2,295 heat-associated deaths during the whole of summer 2023, 1,311 during summer 2024 and 1,504 during summer 2025. The highest annual estimate recorded to date remains summer 2022, when 2,985 heat-associated deaths were observed across 5 heat episodes.

Climate change increases likelihood of compounding drivers of severe wildfire conditions in France and Spain, World Weather Attribution

The authors perform a super rapid analysis of trends in fire-conducive weather conditions in the two affected areas in France and Spain, analyzing observations only. In both study regions observations show strong trends of increasing likelihood and severity with global warming.

Risks of Lithium-ion Battery Facilities to Workers and Communities in Reno, Nevada - A Case Study Supporting Community Right-to-Know, Moon et al., GAIA

The authors report examines the environmental and health implications of lithium-ion battery recycling in Nevada’s rapidly expanding “Lithium Loop” and is designed not only to document current conditions but to equip communities, policymakers, and other stakeholders with the information and frameworks needed to strengthen transparency and accountability across the sector. This case study marks the launch of GAIA’s Community Right-to-Know Initiative for Battery Recycling, a multi-year effort to establish industry-wide transparency and accountability benchmarks among battery recyclers regarding transition mineral claims; support frontline communities in accessing, interpreting, and acting on environmental data; and align battery supply chain stakeholders, policymakers, researchers, and advocates, in Nevada and throughout the US, around enforceable disclosure standards.

The Pace of Solar Progress: How Preexisting Land Use Shapes Permitting Timelines for Utility-Scale Solar in California, Johnson et al., The Nature Conservancy

California’s future hinges on its ability to rapidly and responsibly develop significant amounts of utility-scale solar. Yet the pace of deployment is increasingly constrained by permitting complexity. In a first-of-its-kind analysis, the authors examine over 15 years of permitting data and includes interviews with county officials, a state agency, and solar developers to understand the drivers of permitting timelines and to identify how California can accelerate clean energy deployment while protecting important landscapes.

Annual Report to the Legislature on California Climate Investments Using Cap-and-Invest Auction Proceeds, California Air Resources Board

The California Air Resources Board released a new report showing the state’s Cap-and-Invest program has generated $36.2 billion for climate investments, $15.5 billion of which have been implemented through over 600,000 projects. With billions yet to be implemented and $8 billion in additional proceeds estimated through 2030, these funds are expected to continue reducing emissions and supporting jobs across the state for years to come. 36.2 billion generated by Cap-and-Invest auctions. $15.5 billion implemented across 122 programs into over 600,000 projects delivering cleaner air, stronger communities, and more affordable options for Californians. Of that money, $11.4 billion, or 76%, is benefiting disadvantaged and low-income communities. 130.5 million metric tons of carbon-dioxide equivalent of estimated greenhouse gas reductions over project lifetimes, equivalent to avoiding the consumption of over 12.6 billion gallons of gasoline. 16,386 affordable homes under contract, helping address California’s housing needs. $44.4 billion in expected cost savings from reduced fuel use, lower transportation costs, and lower household energy bills. 143,000+ jobs supported across the economy through project spending, supply chain activity, and induced economic activity over project lifetimes.

How Important is Clean Energy to Utahns?, Elizabeth Brunner and Stacia Ryder, Utah State University

Data from the 2024/25 Utah People and Environment Poll estimates that a majority of Utahns support carbon-free energy. Over half of Utahns are willing to pay more for clean energy. Nuclear and geothermal energy sources draw the most consistent support across rural, transitioning, and urban communities Rural, transitioning, and urban communities are most divided on support for natural gas, coal, solar, and wind energy sources. The Utah Office of Energy’s Strategic Energy Plan may not prioritize clean energy in the same way its residents do. Future research should explore the links between Utahns’ views of energy and data center development.

Energy Transition Monitor: Momentum Is Still Insufficient for the Expansion of Renewables, Electrification, and Storage, Von Wolf-Peter Schill, DIW Weekly Report

The expansion of solar and wind energy is progressing, but it is not fast enough to meet the 2030 statutory targets. The heating transition is stalling: Heat pumps make up half of all newly sold heating systems, yet many fossil-fuel heaters are still being installed. Electric vehicles are gaining ground in all categories, but internal combustion engines continue to dominate new registrations. Electricity price trends show that the flexibility of the power system is growing more slowly than electricity generation from renewables. The expansion of large-scale battery storage is gaining momentum, nearly doubling in the first half of 2026.

China Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) Investment Report 2026 H1, Christoph Nedopil, The University of Queensland Business School, Brisbane, Australia in collaboration with the Green Finance & Development Center (GFDC) at FISF, PR. China

China’s energy related engagement in 2026 H1 reached record levels with about USD36.3 billion – almost double the energy engagement in any first half year since 2013 except 2025. 56% of China’s energy engagement was green – a new record both in absolute and in relative terms. More than USD20 billion in H1 2026, same level as green energy engagement in all 2025. More than 20 GW of green electricity projects confirmed through investment and construction – more than in all of 2025.

Organizations and Climate Action. Accelerating Climate Solutions Through Organizational Change, Amel et al., American Psychological Association & ecoAmerica

The escalating effects of climate change are already reshaping lives, livelihoods, and communities. A large majority of people recognize this reality and express concern. Yet awareness alone has not translated into the scale of action the moment demands. The authors address that gap by examining one of the most powerful and underutilized levers for climate action: organizations. Drawing on peer-reviewed research from organizational psychology, behavioral science, and sustainability studies, this report presents an evidence-based case for why organizations — understood as structured collectives of people — are uniquely positioned to accelerate climate solutions. Although much of the research reviewed in this report is based on workplace settings, the principles it identifies are broadly applicable across diverse organizational contexts, from corporations, associations, and nonprofits to educational institutions and places of worship. At its core, any collective is shaped by universal human dynamics: culture, leadership, and motivation. The authors examine the cultural and behavioral foundations of organizational change and offer practical, role-specific recommendations for advancing climate action.

Communities Centered: Frontline Perspectives on Hyperscale Data Centers in Washington State, Mengal et al., Front and Centered

Hyperscale data centers represent an emerging threat to climate and environmental justice. New articles or reports are constantly being released detailing the negative health, environmental, energy and economic effects of data centers on communities across the nation, and too often it is frontline communities who bear the brunt of these effects. As a coalition of frontline community-based organizations advancing climate and environmental justice in Washington State, we know that our communities are continually overlooked in conversations about how to address data centers and their impacts, despite holding distinct and multiple forms of expertise and lived experiences. The authors provide the first statewide report to combine original geographic analysis with interviews from frontline organizations to examine how the growth of AI data centers is affecting communities across Washington. In addition to documenting community concerns, the authors outline a series of policy recommendations, including passing a statewide moratorium on new data centers and the expansion of existing hyperscale facilities. About New Research

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This is a re-post from Yale Climate Connections by Karin Kirk

It’s hot. Fans and air conditioners are humming in homes, offices, commercial buildings, and factories. July is the most electricity-intensive time of year in the U.S., and the grid is working hard to keep up.

In many places, high electricity demand equals high pollution. That used to be true in New Mexico, but the state’s electricity supply flipped from majority climate-warming fossil fuels to majority renewables in just five years. Spurred by an ambitious clean energy law called the Energy Transition Act, utilities have been busy building solar panels, wind turbines, batteries, and transmission lines. A major coal plant was retired and demolished. Solar panels proliferated on homes, schools, and businesses.

And even while New Mexico was building out its clean energy future, electricity prices remained cheaper than average.

A case study in cleaner electricity

New Mexico’s largest utility is the Public Service Company of New Mexico, or PNM. Only five years ago, most of PNM’s cooling needs were met by coal and gas, which made up 83% of its electricity generation in July 2021.

But the state’s abundant sunshine now provides much of the region’s electricity.

The golden line on the graph below shows grid-scale solar energy production in PNM’s territory every day for a week. The sun generated 41% of the total electricity the week of July 6, when I did this analysis.

Batteries deliver stored sunshine in the evening

The next graph shows electricity stored and generated by utility-scale batteries. During the daytime, the line dips below zero when the batteries are pulling electricity off the grid to charge up.

In the Southwestern U.S., electricity is cheap during sunny days because everyone’s solar panels are cranking out electrons at the same time. The utility could try to sell excess solar energy to other regions, but it’s not worth much. It’s far better to store it for later.

Summer evenings are hot, even as the sun eases toward the horizon and solar production wanes. That’s when PNM’s battery fleet comes to life, delivering the solar energy stored a few hours earlier. The green line spikes upward as the batteries kick into gear.

By around midnight, the batteries are discharged. But metaphorically speaking, so are most people. Electricity demand drops off as everyone heads to bed and temperatures cool off for the night.

Bring on the wind

Sunshine and batteries aren’t quite enough to power everything 24/7. The next big player is wind, shown with the blue line on the graph below. Note how the wind blows strongest in the evening – it’s the perfect complement to solar in this region. Wind accounted for 20% of electricity generation during the week shown below.

New Mexico’s evening wind is also helping out Arizona and California as a result of the recently completed SunZia project. Located in central New Mexico, the project’s 916 wind turbines generate electricity and a 550-mile, high-voltage transmission line carries it westward.

Still some fossil fuels – but a lot less

Only five years ago, fossil fuels were the main characters in PNM’s electricity generation. Now they’re the supporting cast.

The brown line on the graph below shows electricity generated from natural gas, a fossil fuel composed primarily of climate-warming methane. Little gas is needed during the day, thanks to solar energy. In the evening, gas generation picks up, though it’s still generating less than batteries and wind.

The steady black line shows coal generation. Coal plants run best when operated at a constant pace, because frequent ramping up and down causes them to run less efficiently and can lead to more fatigue on aging equipment.

All told, coal and gas made up 38% of the electricity supply the week of July 6, with renewables generating 62%.

It’s worth noting that July’s heat drives the highest rates of fossil fuel use for PNM. About half the days in the past year saw renewables generating 70% or more of the daily electricity need, and in late spring of this year, renewables routinely met more than 80% of demand.

A transformation in just five years

Compare the chart above to the one below from 2021, when coal and gas power plants generated nearly 80% of the total electricity. Every day, the utility ramped up gas power plants to meet the evening peak in electricity demand. Solar and wind were relatively small contributors, totaling just over 20% between them.

So how did this transformation happen? The answer is in part two of this story, coming Monday.

A note on data

The data comes from the Energy Information Administration’s Hourly Grid Monitor. Note that not all of the electricity shown in these graphs is used by PNM. Some of it is exported to other regions, and PNM also imports some electricity into its service territory. Nevertheless, the data paints a picture of how different sources of electricity generation blend together to provide power through the day and night.

This article first appeared on Yale Climate Connections and is republished here under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.

//

This is a re-post from By the Numbers by Hannah Ritchie

Over the last week, this chart of wildfire burn in Europe has been doing the rounds on social media and traditional media outlets. Carbon Brief goes through some of this coverage here.

The underlying narrative is that Europe is having its lowest wildfire year on record, which is quite at odds with the huge wildfires we see from France and Spain on the news.

But this data and the media headlines are not as contradictory as they first appear.

The wildfire data we present on Our World in Data comes from the Global Wildfire Information System (GWIS). This uses satellite imagery, which doesn’t distinguish, for example, between forest fires and large-scale burning of agricultural land, grasslands, or savannah.

Its aggregate category “Europe” includes Russia. On OWID, we also have predefined regions across our datasets, and Russia falls under “Europe”.

Russia, as a country, is split between Europe and Asia. Most of its landmass lies in Asia, but most of its population is on the European side. Since most of our datasets, from poverty and inequality, to health, education, energy consumption and access to resources, are about human activity and outcomes, assigning Russia to Europe usually makes more sense. That’s not so much the case for the few metrics — like wildfires — that concern land mass.

As Russia is big, the European numbers are heavily influenced by what’s happening there. This is something that’s true of aggregate wildfire data more broadly. The global numbers are heavily influenced by what’s happening in Africa, for example.

It can be true that the world is having a low wildfire year, while Europe is having a high one. Or that Europe is having a low wildfire year, and particular countries within Europe are battling huge outbreaks. There is no inconsistency there.

To provide more regional insight, we added an entity called “Europe (excluding Russia)” and already had one for the “European Union (27)”.

What does the European data look like if we remove Russia?

It’s no longer the lowest wildfire year on record, but still fairly quiet for this time of year. Russia is not the only explanation.

What if we look at the European Union?

It is higher again, with a particular uptick in the last week. It’s around 40% higher than the median year since 2012, and the 5th highest in that record.

At Our World in Data we use GWIS as our main source, since we want the global picture. But Europe also has the European Forest Fire Information System (EFFIS). It stretches back to 2006, and tries to filter out agricultural burning to focus on forest fires.

Its data has the EU running at its 2nd highest level for this time of year.

Underneath this trend from either source is a stark regional split. Many countries in Western Europe are having a bad wildfire year. Those in the Balkans and Southern Europe, a comparatively quiet one.1

The bar chart below shows how wildfire burn at this stage of the year compares to the median over the past 15 years. A figure of 2 means it’s twice as high as the median; 0.3 means wildfire burn is around one-third.

Countries such as France, Spain, Germany, and Portugal are well above the average for this time of year. But countries such as Romania, Greece, and Croatia are well below.

For France, it’s not just that wildfire burn is higher than usual. It’s seeing record-breaking fires for this time of the year. You can see this in the panel chart below.

Compare that to Greece, where wildfires are tracking for their lowest levels since 2012.

This matters for the aggregate European, or EU, figures.

Let’s take that same chart, but make the y-axis scale the same across all countries. Some countries simply contribute far more to the total than others. France is breaking records — which obviously matters a lot for its national figures — but it doesn’t have a huge impact on the region’s overall numbers. A really big year in Portugal, Italy, Romania or Spain does make a big difference. But the relatively high year in Spain is “offset” by a low year for Romania.

That’s really the point: some countries are having really severe wildfire outbreaks, affecting huge population centres and landscapes. That France is struggling this summer is not a lie or just media hype. It can also be true that others offset this with quiet years in the regional totals.

The anomaly in France this year is even clearer when we look at the weekly wildfire burn. The spike you see in the chart below was far higher than any other week in France’s record since 2012. The speed and intensity of wildfire outbreaks is arguably more important for the impact on communities than just the total area burned.

What about global wildfires this year?

What if we zoom out to look at data across all regions?

Here they are, with the y-axis scales the same. It really is a low year for wildfires globally. Most of that is explained by low wildfire burn in Africa. A lot of Africa’s wildfires are about agricultural burning, and fires on grasslands and savannahs. South America is also having a quiet year, so far.

Europe and North America, in particular, have little bearing on the global total, simply because they’re so small. Europe without Russia has even less so.

 

1 Much of the burning in the Balkans is related to agricultural land practices, which differ from how people think about forest fires.

This is a re-post from The Climate Brink

Jim Hansen and I have spent much of this year making seemingly opposite predictions about where 2026 will end up in the global temperature record books. He has argued since the spring that 2026 will be the warmest year on record; I have made the case that it is more likely than not to end up in second place. And in a recent post he framed our disagreement in memorably equine terms:

Based on this scientific evidence, we expect that when the horse race comes down the stretch, in November and December of this year, we will be riding a thoroughbred, a strong young horse, and Zeke will be atop a fading old nag.

For the record, I am the fading old nag in this metaphor. I have been called worse.

But here is the fun part: when the race comes down the final stretch at the end of 2026, there is a good chance we will both be declared winners. Hansen’s prediction is about NASA’s GISTEMP record specifically. Mine is about the average across the major surface temperature datasets. And when I run my own forecast model separately on each of six datasets, it gives GISTEMP a ~65% chance of a new 2026 record even as the multi-dataset average only has a ~32% chance and is likely to come in second place.

First, where my forecast stands. Back in December I projected 2026 at 1.41C (1.27C to 1.55C) above preindustrial levels, and in early June I revised that up to 1.46C (1.36C to 1.59C) as forecast models converged on a doozy of an El Niño developing in the latter half of the year. Hansen, via the Washington Post, cited my June estimate of a 26.6% chance that 2026 sets a new record.

That number has continued to creep up. With observations through June and the latest El Niño forecast ensemble, my current central estimate for 2026 is 1.50C (1.44C to 1.57C) above the 1850-1900 baseline in the average of six surface temperature datasets.1 That translates into a ~32% chance that 2026 beats 2024’s record, a ~66% chance it comes in second, and almost no chance (<2%) it falls to third or below. The figure below shows where those projections sit against the observational record.

Observed annual global mean surface temperature (average of GISTEMP, HadCRUT5, NOAA GlobalTemp, Berkeley Earth, JRA-3Q, and ERA5; °C relative to 1850–1900) and the 2026 and 2027 forecast medians with 25–75% and 5–95% Monte Carlo ranges, alongside the 2024 record (dashed) and the 1.5C level (dotted). Forecast updated 30 July 2026 with observations through June and the July-initialized multi-model El Niño ensemble.

Here we see 2026 sitting just below the 2024 record line, with 2027 well above it. So the horse race (to continue the metaphor) is drifting in Hansen’s direction, though still short of the finish line. In the average of all the groups reporting global surface temperatures, second warmest remains my central call for 2026.

It is worth being clear about why my odds keep rising, because it is not that 2026 has been running unexpectedly hot. Year-to-date temperatures have actually drifted slightly down since March (a January-June mean of 1.39C, versus 1.41C for January-March). What changed is the El Niño forecast. To show this, I reran my forecast as it would have looked with each month’s information: that month’s multi-model El Niño plume plus observations through that month.

Left: probability that 2026 exceeds the 2024 record in the six-dataset composite, recomputed at each monthly forecast vintage (that month’s multi-model El Niño forecast plume plus year-to-date observations through that month). Right: additive decomposition of the March-to-now rise into an observations step (March plume held fixed, observations updated through June) and an El Niño forecast step (July plume swapped in). Updated 30 July 2026.

The odds of a 2026 record in the composite have risen from ~7% at the March vintage to ~35% now,2 and the decomposition on the right shows that the strengthening El Niño forecast accounts for ~84% of that rise; incoming observations contributed just over 4 points. In other words, my drift toward Hansen’s position is not the 2026 observations through June being particularly extraordinary. It is the ENSO models converging on an unprecedentedly large event. If that El Niño underdelivers, these odds will sag back down. If it holds, the odds will likely hold as well. But it seems unlikely (I hope!) that we see continued strengthening of the El Niño forecast beyond what already would blow past the prior record by a “truly mind-numbing margin”.

But “the warmest year on record” is not a single number that nature hands us; it depends on whose record you check. Hansen’s prediction is specifically about GISTEMP. So a natural question is: what does my model say if I fit it to each dataset individually, using each dataset’s own 2024 record as the bar to clear? The figure below shows the result for six datasets: the four traditional surface station products (GISTEMP, HadCRUT5, NOAA GlobalTemp, and Berkeley Earth) and two reanalysis products (Copernicus/ERA5 and JRA-3Q).

Probability that 2026 exceeds each dataset’s own 2024 record, from the same statistical forecast model (trend, ENSO, and observed 2026 months) fit to each of six datasets separately, with 10,000 Monte Carlo draws sampling a 14-model El Niño forecast ensemble. Observations through June 2026 (May for HadCRUT5). Updated 30 July 2026.

The same model, fed the same El Niño forecast, gives 2026 a ~65% chance of a record in GISTEMP and a ~66% chance in Berkeley Earth,3 but only ~35% in HadCRUT5, ~24% in NOAA, ~13% in ERA5, and ~9% in JRA-3Q. Conveniently, the average across the six (~35%) lands nearly on the blended estimate (32%), which is a reassuring consistency check.

Why the spread? It is not that the datasets disagree much about how warm 2026 will be; the projections are quite similar. They disagree about how high the bar is. The reanalysis products (ERA5 and JRA-3Q) ran exceptionally hot during the 2023-2024 event, so their 2024 records sit further above their long-term trend lines and are harder to beat. GISTEMP’s 2026 median projection sits ~0.02C above its 2024 record, while ERA5’s sits ~0.05C below its own and JRA-3Q’s ~0.07C below. When the margin is a few hundredths of a degree, structural differences between datasets could end up deciding the race.

So Hansen predicting a GISTEMP record and me predicting second warmest in the multi-dataset average are, oddly, compatible bets. If 2026 sets a record in GISTEMP but not in the dataset average (or in ERA5), expect a flurry of confused headlines in January as people try and explain how its the warmest or second warmest year depending on what dataset you look at.

I should concede the larger point plainly: Hansen made this call earlier and more confidently than I did, and the odds have moved steadily his way since. If 2026 ends up warmest across the board, he won outright, and a 32% chance is the kind of thing that happens all the time. I’d also gently note that a probabilistic forecast of “second warmest, with a one-in-three chance of a record” is a difficult thing to lose spectacularly.

What our agreement on 2026 does not settle is the more consequential disagreement about why. Hansen’s forecast rests on a specific physical story: his argument for a climate sensitivity of 4-5C per doubled CO2, a large forcing boost from falling aerosols, and a warming rate that has roughly doubled.4 My forecast is simpler: it just relies on the long-term trend, the state of ENSO, and the year-to-date observations and ends up in more or less the same place. When a statistical model based on the historical trend and an El Niño forecast lands on essentially the same 2027 number as Hansen (more on that in a moment), it tells you that a single warm year, or even two, cannot distinguish between “very rapid acceleration driven by aerosols and high sensitivity” and “the trend and more modest acceleration plus a very strong El Niño.” That debate will be settled by energy balance observations and the post-El-Niño years, not by whether 2026 clears 2024 by 0.03C in one dataset.

And on 2027 there will be no horse race at all: my model puts the odds of a new record next year at ~91%. Here I should give Hansen his due on a second count. Back in December he was already predicting a ~1.7C 2027, at a time when my own central estimate was 1.57C. Seven months and many rounds of strengthening El Niño forecasts later, my regression has drifted up to 1.70C (1.48C to 1.93C): essentially the number he wrote down at the start.

Ultimately both probabilistic forecasts and confident predictions can be validated by the same outcome, and the interesting scientific disagreement (how fast is warming accelerating, and why) will outlive whatever the December photo finish shows. Either way we are in for quite a wild climate ride in both the latter half of 2026 and 2027 due to a combination of accelerating warming and a super El Niño event.

1 The blended forecast uses the average of GISTEMP, HadCRUT5, NOAA GlobalTemp, Berkeley Earth, JRA-3Q, and ERA5, each rebaselined to 1850-1900 using its own pre-1900 offset. The model regresses annual temperature on the year, the prior year’s anomaly, observed and forecast ENSO conditions, the year-to-date anomaly, and the latest monthly value, trained on 1950-2025 excluding major volcanic years, with 10,000 Monte Carlo draws sampling both regression uncertainty and a ~650-member multi-model El Niño forecast ensemble. The headline numbers use a relative (RONI-style) ENSO index; using the raw ONI instead gives a slightly warmer 1.51C and a 37% record chance, because the forecast El Niño is strong enough to sit beyond the range of the historical ONI training data.

2 This figure only uses 13 of the 14 El Niño models in the live ensemble as the 14th (SINTEX-F) was only added to the tracker in June and cannot be used for the retrospective calculations, which is why it puts today’s odds at ~35% rather than the headline ~32%.

3 It's worth noting that my odds for Berkeley Earth are notably higher than those provided (~12%) in the official Berkeley Earth update. This is largely due to my statistical model including the ENSO predictions for the remainder of the year which does not improve the fit much for most years (start-of-year ENSO conditions tend to be a much stronger predictor) but does matter in the rare years where strong El Nino events are forming like 1997, 2015, 2023, and 2026.

4 It's worth noting that Hansen’s estimate of ECS is well within our very likely uncertainty range of 2C to 5C per doubling CO2 in the IPCC AR6. And there has been some compelling evidence in recent years that ECS might be higher, though I’d personally give a central estimate closer to 3.5C than Hansen’s ~4.5C, as well as a new preprint suggesting forcing from the 2020 IMO low sulfur shipping fuel regulations may end up somewhere between Hansen’s high and my low-end estimate.

A listing of 28 news and opinion articles we found interesting and shared on social media during the past week: Sun, July 26, 2026 thru Sat, August 1, 2026. Stories we promoted this week, by category:

Climate Change Impacts (7 articles)

• State of the climate: Rapidly developing El Niño raises chance of record-warm 2026 Chances of a record setting 2026 El Niño rapidly increase, taking us closer to an important warming threshold. Carbon Brief, Zeke Hausfather, Jul 24, 2026.
• Why is Germany building roads for yesterday's climate? As the Autobahn buckles under heat waves, Germany is still paving roads for a past climate. Engineers know how to fix that — so what's the holdup? DW, Tim Schauenberg, Jul 28, 2026.
• Summer of Heat, Fires and Storms Is a Reckoning for Europe on Climate Europe is experiencing some of its biggest fires and highest temperatures ever; residents are fleeing, leaders are struggling to respond and “it will get worse,” one climate expert said. NYT, Mark Landler and Chico Harlan, Jul 29, 2026.
• `The heat took him from me`: India`s death toll rises amid escalating heat crisis As extreme heat claims the lives of workers in India’s poorest areas, many fear the true mortality rate is being dangerously undercounted. The Guardian, Hannah Ellis-Petersen and Aakash Hassan, Jul 29, 2026.
• 4 things to know about cyclospora and climate change A fragile food system, uneven public health messaging, and global warming are all working to supercharge the parasite’s spread. Grist, Frida Garza, Jul 30, 2026.
• `Was this heatwave caused by climate change?` - we`re asking the wrong question The question is not whether climate change caused the heatwave, but how much hotter and more dangerous heatwaves have become because greenhouse gases, primarily from burning fossil fuels, have accumulated in the atmosphere. The Conversation, Prof. Haley J. Fowler & Prof. Ed Hawkins, Jul 31, 2026.
• Everything on fire DrGilbz on Youtube, Ella Gilbert, July 31, 2026.

Climate Science and Research (6 articles)

• Human-driven climate change largely responsible for last 50 years of worsening fire weather in Western North America, new study shows Just as detectives can find literal fingerprints at a crime scene, scientists can detect human and natural ‘fingerprints’ in climate and meteorological data like temperature, precipitation, and relative humidity— all factors that can influence fire behavior. Science Feedback, Science Feedback team, May 8, 2025.
• How do scientists know if climate change made a heat wave, extreme storm or wildfire worse? When a devastating heat wave, hurricane, flood or wildfire strikes, people often want to know: How much did human-caused climate change influence this event, if at all? The Conversation, Kevin T. Smiley, Deepti Singh, Jennifer Marlon, Jim Hurrell, Jul 24, 2026.
• Low-Level Cloud Loss Amplifies Global Warming A new study adds weight to concerns over the positive feedback effects of clouds on global warming. CalTech, Katie Neith, Jul 24, 2026.
• Canopy-mediated climate feedbacks in the boreal continuous permafrost zone A vast amount of carbon locked up in permafrost is protected by a thin and increasingly threatened layer of vegetation. Nature Climate Change, M. Langer, Jul 27, 2026.
• Rising CO2 Alters Upper Atmosphere Response to Stratosphere Sudden Warming A whole-atmosphere model simulation shows that rising CO2 changes how the upper atmosphere and ionosphere respond to a sudden stratospheric warming (SSW), with implications for future space weather.? Eos, Huixin Liu, Jul 29, 2026.
• Why Hansen may end up being right about 2026 Whether 2026 sets a new record is increasingly likely to be a split decision between different groups The Climate Brink, Zeke Hausfather, Jul 30, 2026.

Climate Policy and Politics (3 articles)

• American Nero: Why Trump is trying to burn down the National Academy of Sciences The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, Benjamin Santer, July 26, 2026.
• Trump administration eyes massive coal reserves under federal lands Despite vast contrary scientific evidence, the US executive branch sees vast reserves of coal as a resource desirable to burn. Inside Climate News, Lisa Sorg, Jul 27, 2026.
• Do small climate habits help or hurt the bigger cause? Researchers tracked nearly 2,800 people's habits, protests, and policy views to test whether small green acts help or hurt the bigger fight. Neither, it turns out. Anthropocene, Sarah DeWeerdt, Jul 28, 2026.

Public Misunderstandings about Climate Solutions (3 articles)

•  2026 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #30 A listing of 28 news and opinion articles we found interesting and shared on social media during the past week: Sun, July 19, 2026 thru Sat, July 25, 2026. Skeptical Science, Bärbel Winkler & Doug Bostrom, July 26, 2026.
• Fact brief - Do solar plants require backup from fossil fuels? Solar plants require backup, but it doesn’t have to be from fossil fuels. Skeptical Science, Sue Bin Park, Jul 28, 2026.
• The influencer teaching millions to fear solar Alexandra Fasulo says she’s protecting farms and wildlife. How much of her rhetoric is actually true? HEATED, Alex Hannaford, Jul 30, 2026.

Miscellaneous (2 articles)

• `I can`t work in the farce of climate change cruise tourism anymore`: why Antarctic guides quit their dream jobs 'You’d see massive glacier calvings, and you’d just want to cry. But all the guests would be cheering. And you’d be like … ‘can you not put two and two together?’'' The Conversation, Zdenka Sokolickova, Christy Hehir, Elizabeth Cooper, Jul 21, 2026.
• Scientists decry Trump`s `blame game` after he claims Canada `poisoning` US air Trump told Mark Carney ‘you got to stop these fires from coming in’ as experts say wildfires symptom of climate crisis The Guardian, Oliver Milman, Jul 24, 2026.

Public Misunderstandings about Climate Science (2 articles)

• Factcheck: No, Europe`s heatwaves are not being `caused` by declining air pollution Scientists tell Carbon Brief that the framing of heatwaves being “caused” by declining air pollution is “wrong”. Carbon Brief, Robert McSweeney, Jul 24, 2026.
• Hot days, cold thermometers A graph popular with climate change deniers is desconstructed by Zeke Hausfather, exposing its economy of truth. Skeptical Science, Zeke Hausfather, Jul 27, 2026.

Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation (2 articles)

• Can we alter ocean chemistry to absorb carbon? Here are the pros and cons Procrastination on arresting fossil fuels leads to extreme measures; here are pros and cons of "ocean alkalinity enhancement" and pitfalls in public perceptions this technology will encounter should it require deployment. The Conversation, Harris Anderson, Andrew Lenton, Mathieu Mongin, Jul 23, 2026.
• U.S. Raises Threat of Steep Water Cuts in Lower Colorado River Basin A federal plan would impose drastic water cuts on Arizona, California and Nevada in dry years over the next decade. A legal battle could follow. NYT, Scott Dance, Jul 31, 2026.

Climate Education and Communication (1 article)

• Wildfires: why media coverage doesn`t always make the climate connection Exploring how contradictory press coverage can sit on the same front page tells us a lot about how climate change is narrated in the UK, and why climate reporting differs so much from country to country. The Conversation, Doug Specht,, Jul 28, 2026.

Climate Law and Justice (1 article)

• Shell`s hidden climate knowledge under scrutiny as court battle looms As the company faces a landmark climate lawsuit, confidential documents show how British scientist James Lovelock warned executives of the risks of burning fossil fuels in the 1960s. DeSmog, Rebecca John, Jul 30, 2026.

Health Aspects of Climate Change (1 article)

• Trump Administration Is Undoing Plans to Boost Workplace Heat Protections The Biden administration took steps to shield workers from extreme temperatures. The Trump administration is taking a gentler approach with employers. NYT, Scott Dance, Aug 01, 2026.

If you happen upon high quality climate-science and/or climate-myth busting articles from reliable sources while surfing the web, please feel free to submit them via this Google form so that we may share them widely. Thanks!

Open access notables

Observed Multi-Decadal Acceleration of Globally Averaged Abyssal Ocean Warming, Johnson, Geophysical Research Letters

Given sparse historical data in the deep and abyssal ocean, previously only multi-decadal temperature trends have been estimated from observations there on a global scale. Full-depth CTD sampling started circa 1970, with the first decadal global ship-based survey occupied in the 1990s, and the first regional pilot array of Deep Argo floats started circa 2016. Here we fit second-order polynomial functions versus time to all available full-depth CTD profile temperature data in local spatial bins to estimate changes in the rates of these multi-decadal temperature trends. We find a statistically significant increase of the heating rate of the abyssal (4,000–6,000 dbar) ocean, from 5.4 (±4.9) TW in 1988 to 20.2 (±3.9) TW in 2018. In contrast, we find no statistically significant change in the heating rate of the deep ocean, estimated at 29.4 (±22.1) TW in 1988 and 25.0 (±17.5) TW in 2018.

High-resolution simulations reveal positive global warming feedback from Pacific low clouds, Chammas et al., Science Advances

Uncertainty in marine low-level cloud feedbacks limits accurate climate projections. Using 7083 high-resolution simulations of tropical Pacific low clouds, we separated the impacts of sea surface warming from direct carbon dioxide (CO2) effects. Surface warming alone drives a positive low-cloud feedback of 0.14Wm-2K-1. While this changes little with doubled CO2, the total cloud radiative response strengthens markedly to 0.43Wm-2K-1 under quadrupled CO2, revealing a strong nonlinear interaction. Surface warming alone modifies the boundary layer through increased inversion strength and weakened subsidence, which buffers clouds by promoting higher liquid water content while cloud fraction decreases. Rapid adjustments to high CO2 concentrations counteract this protective cloud thickening. Consequently, a pronounced reduction in cloud fraction is no longer offset by an increase in cloud brightness, markedly strengthening the total radiative response under quadrupled CO2. Ultimately, our results suggest that climate sensitivity is more state-dependent than often assumed.

Canopy-mediated climate feedbacks in the boreal continuous permafrost zone, Stuenzi et al., Nature Climate Change

Boreal forests, covering approximately a quarter of the continuous permafrost zone, store relatively modest aboveground carbon, but thermally protect vast soil organic carbon (SOC) pools. Here, using a process-based model to compare seasonal thaw depths under forested and bare-ground scenarios, we quantify distinct canopy thermal insulation capacities of deciduous needleleaf, evergreen needleleaf and deciduous broadleaf canopies on permafrost thermal dynamics. Canopy buffering maintains approximately 59 Pg of carbon in a frozen state, which equals 32% of the total forested permafrost carbon pool and far exceeds boreal biomass stocks (7–19 Pg). Canopy changes could mobilize this frozen SOC through gradual thaw (40 Pg) and rapid thermokarst collapse (19 Pg). While forest loss sacrifices biomass carbon stocks, resulting thaw would expose orders of magnitude more SOC from previously frozen reservoirs, revealing a critical asymmetry. Forest conservation strategies in continuous permafrost zones must account for canopy-mediated thermal protection of frozen SOC, which far exceeds its biomass carbon sequestration capacity.

The 2026 western US snow drought was about four times more likely due to climate change, Marshall et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 

In the spring of 2026, anomalously low snow conditions in the western United States threatened winter recreation and water supplies. Here, we investigate: to what extent was this snow drought attributable to the climate change that has occurred since the pre-industrial period? We find that a snow drought this severe across the western United States was approximately 4.4 [95% CI: 2.6, 9.4] times more likely in the current climate than in the preindustrial period. In the Upper Colorado River Basin, the snow drought was approximately 14 times more likely [0.09, 4,300]. Given a projected increase in the frequency of snow droughts at least this severe in a moderately high emissions warming scenario, the lived experience of this event may help scientists, resource managers, and the public consider what western US snow might look like if greenhouse gas emissions are not aggressively reduced.

Feasibility of CO2 pipeline construction to enable gigaton-scale carbon dioxide removals: evidence from historical precedent, Roberts et al., Frontiers in Climate

In this analysis, we use the history of fossil fuel pipeline networks to assess the feasibility of rapidly building enough CO2 pipelines to enable gigaton-scale removals of CO2 from the Earth's atmosphere. We collect data on scenarios of CO2 pipeline construction, historical fossil fuel pipeline construction, and the historical context of this construction to answer four questions: (1) What length of pipeline network will be required to achieve the benchmarks of 1 Gt or 100 Mt of CO2 in 2050? (2) What have been the largest national and international fossil fuel pipeline buildouts achieved in a 25-year period? (3) Is it feasible to build enough CO2 pipelines to enable gigaton-scale carbon dioxide removals given these historical precedents? (4) Under what political, economic, and social circumstances have rapid pipeline build-outs occurred? We find that a pipeline network of roughly 8,000 km will be necessary to enable 100 Mt of carbon dioxide removal, and that roughly 100,000 km will be necessary for 1 Gt. There are 15 cases in the historical record of a country building 8,000 km of fossil fuel pipelines in 25 years, and only three cases of a country building 100,000km or more of pipelines in the same timescale. Rapid construction of fossil fuel pipelines has benefited from strong economic and institutional drivers, which may not apply to CO2 pipelines in the same way. Our findings are reason for caution about the likelihood of CO2 pipeline build outs keeping pace with CO2 removal targets.

From this week's government/NGO section:

Pay, Baby, Pay. Why Trump's Energy & AI Dominance Agenda Means Higher Bills For Everyone, Lorne Stockman, Oil Change International

U.S. wholesale fossil gas prices will likely double by the late 2030s relative to the 2020 to 2025 average if the Trump administration’s energy and AI policies succeed in pushing gas demand to levels that can only be met by more expensive gas production. Significant energy price volatility from 2020 to 2025 caused hardship in the U.S. and in LNG-importing countries, particularly in Asia and Europe. Costlier U.S. gas risks exacerbating the energy affordability crisis for U.S. and international consumers alike. The surge in gas demand – and gas prices – is being driven primarily by the Trump administration’s support for massive increases in liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports. Trump’s hostility toward renewables and support for the poorly regulated AI data center boom aggravate the impending crunch. Lower-cost gas from the two biggest U.S. gas-producing regions, the Permian and Appalachian basins, will not be able to meet rising demand alone. To fill the gap between demand and production, gas producers will have to increase drilling in the significantly more expensive Haynesville shale play in Louisiana and Texas.

Interfacing science and policy: Exploring the role of scientific knowledge in the design of Voluntary Sustainability Standards, Loconto et al., Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations

Through the concept of scientific cherry-picking, the authors analyze how Voluntary Sustainability Standards selectively incorporate particular strands of scientific knowledge that align with operational models and governance structures. This selective integration often leads to the promotion of interpretations of sustainability that are compatible with weak sustainability paradigms –emphasizing incremental improvements within existing systems – rather than fostering more systemic and transformative approaches. 181 articles in 66 journals by 1509 contributing authors

Physical science of climate change, effects

Climate Coupling in the Western Hemisphere and 2023 El Niño Onset, Jury, ATMOSPHERE-OCEAN 10.1080/07055900.2026.2698635

Fast expansion and slow contraction of the ITCZ in response to CO2 forcing, Zhang, Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research) Open Access 10.5281/zenodo.18164506

High-resolution simulations reveal positive global warming feedback from Pacific low clouds, Chammas et al., Science Advances Open Access 10.1126/sciadv.aec8488

Key role of continental inorganic halogens in the evolution of global air quality, Li et al., Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-026-75932-7

Multi-century cooling after net-zero greenhouse gas emissions, Tarshish et al., Nature Climate Change 10.1038/s41558-026-02700-2

Subtropical gyre expansion causes Southern Ocean salinification contrary to freshening predictions, Yu & Toole, Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-026-75775-2

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
A more quiescent deep ocean under global warming, Nature Climate Change, 10.1038/s41558-024-02075-2 20 cites.

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Observations of climate change, effects

Accelerating and Intensifying Dry-to-Wet Hydroclimate Whiplash Across the Contiguous United States, Yang & Li, Earth s Future Open Access 10.1029/2026ef008646

Anthropogenic Warming Increases Extreme Precipitation in Huaihe River Basin, China in 1961–2020, Guo et al., International Journal of Climatology 10.1002/joc.70525

Asymmetric Warming and Climate Regime Shift in Bhubaneswar: Evidence from a Rapidly Growing Tropical City (1950-2025), Beuria et al., Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics 10.1016/j.jastp.2026.106922

Attribution of the Record-Breaking June 2024 Eastern Mediterranean Heatwave: Contrasting Roles of Soil Moisture in Anthropogenic Forcing and Natural Variability, Ma et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2025gl121002

Escalating heat waves and human thermal stress over semi-arid Bundelkhand region, India, Singh et al., Urban Climate 10.1016/j.uclim.2026.103035

Lengthening Summer in the Northern Hemisphere with the Declining Arctic Sea Ice, Cui et al., ATMOSPHERE-OCEAN 10.1080/07055900.2026.2695602

Observed Multi-Decadal Acceleration of Globally Averaged Abyssal Ocean Warming, Johnson, Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2026gl124104

Opposite changes in comfortable days over tropical and mid-latitude lands due to anthropogenic warming, 1980-2020 and 2060-2100, Wang et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2026.07.010

The 2026 western US snow drought was about four times more likely due to climate change, Marshall et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Open Access 10.1073/pnas.2612961123

Warming-Induced Increase in Flooding in the Taklimakan Desert, Su et al., Journal of Earth Science Open Access pdf 10.1007/s12583-025-2033-0

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Anthropogenic amplification of precipitation variability over the past century, Science, 10.1126/science.adp0212 218 cites.

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Instrumentation & observational methods of climate change, effects

A multi-method Antarctic atmospheric blocking dataset (1979–2024), Bozkurt et al., Earth system science data Open Access 10.5194/essd-18-5399-2026

A simplified method to calculate atmospheric CO2 equivalency for changing surface albedo, Akbari, Urban Climate 10.1016/j.uclim.2026.102795

Climate scientists sharpen tools for linking global warming to extreme weather, Vaz, Science 10.1126/science.aek8030

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Causes of extreme events revealed by Rényi information transfer, Science Advances, 10.1126/sciadv.adn1721 9 cites.

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Modeling, simulation & projection of climate change, effects

European summer drying largely driven by atmospheric circulation changes since the 1980s, Dunkl et al., Nature Geoscience Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41561-026-02050-w

Future tropical cyclone rainfall constrained by increased atmospheric dryness, Chen et al., Nature Geoscience Open Access 10.1038/s41561-026-02047-5

Identifying the Timing of Regional Summertime Minimum Temperature Threshold Crossings and the Potential Subsequent Climate Evolutions, Arcodia & Barnes, Earth s Future Open Access 10.1029/2026ef008520

Imbalances in climate outcomes in net-zero pathways with fossil fuel CO2 emissions and reforestation-based CO2 removals, MacIsaac et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-026-03329-x

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
The Indian Ocean Dipole in a warming world, Nature Reviews Earth & Environment, 10.1038/s43017-024-00573-7 52 cites.

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Advancement of climate & climate effects modeling, simulation & projection

Added value of a priori bias correction for dynamical downscaling - A case study of Coastal British Columbia, Hingmire et al., PLOS Climate Open Access 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000717

Added value of a priori bias correction for dynamical downscaling - A case study of Coastal British Columbia, Hingmire et al., PLOS Climate Open Access 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000717

The Big Data paradox: how climate model authority becomes institutional mandates for climate extremes in the Anthropocene, Vijayakumar, Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability 10.1016/j.cosust.2026.101698

The TIPMIP Earth system model experiment protocol: phase 1, C. et al., Publication Database PIK (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)) Open Access pmh:oai:publications.pik-potsdam.de:item_32889

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
On the suitability of a convolutional neural network based RCM-emulator for fine spatio-temporal precipitation, Climate Dynamics, 10.1007/s00382-024-07350-8 16 cites.

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Cryosphere & climate change

Century-long data reveals complex trends in ice cover in the Laurentian Great Lakes, Cannon et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-026-03866-5

Climate-driven tree failures: how extreme rainfall threatens the survival of monumental Araucaria angustifolia trees, Scipioni et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology Open Access 10.1016/j.agrformet.2026.111168

Glacier loss in Central Caucasus from ICESat-2, using the SRTM baseline and crossover analysis, Mehrishi et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2026.07.012

Mass Loss From Thwaites Glacier Continues Even Without Ocean Melting, Williams et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2026gl122843

Observed responses of sea ice formation and decay in a mid-latitude marginal sea under dual-mode global warming, Qiu et al., Global and Planetary Change 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2026.105631

Rapid acceleration of ice-cover loss from Northern Hemisphere lakes above critical air temperature thresholds, Zhou et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Open Access 10.1073/pnas.2610752123

The 2026 western US snow drought was about four times more likely due to climate change, Marshall et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Open Access 10.1073/pnas.2612961123

The dynamic response of Pine Island Glacier to two decades of intermittent ice shelf regrounding, Stepney et al., White Rose Research Online (University of Leeds, The University of Sheffield, University of York) pmh:oai:eprints.whiterose.ac.uk:243583

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Ships are projected to navigate whole year-round along the North Sea route by 2100, Communications Earth & Environment, 10.1038/s43247-024-01557-7 24 cites.

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Sea level & climate change

Observed thresholds in sea-level rise driving global tidal wetland loss, Luo et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-026-76031-3

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Probabilistic reconstruction of sea-level changes and their causes since 1900, Earth system science data, 10.5194/essd-16-3471-2024 31 cites.

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Paleoclimate & paleogeochemistry

Broadly stable atmospheric CO2 and CH4 levels over the past 3 million years, Marks-Peterson et al., Nature 10.1038/s41586-025-10032-y

Interplay of North Atlantic freshening and deep convection during the last deglaciation constrained by Iberian speleothems, Endres et al., Climate of the past Open Access pdf 10.5194/cp-22-797-2026

Wildfires rampaged across Europe in the dying days of the Triassic, [authors did not process], Nature 10.1038/d41586-026-02333-7

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Response of coastal California hydroclimate to the Paleocene–Eocene Thermal Maximum, Climate of the past, 10.5194/cp-20-1615-2024 2 cites.

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Biology & climate change, related geochemistry

Larix gmelinii growth limitation shifts from nitrogen availability to drought under warming and permafrost degradation, Chen et al., Global and Planetary Change 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2026.105395

Aftermath of marine heatwaves on the growth and physiological performance of Sargassum fusiforme and Sargassum thunbergii, Chu et al., Marine Environmental Research 10.1016/j.marenvres.2026.107945

An integrated assessment of climate change on landscape adaptive capacity, vulnerability, and divergence in Avicennia species, Sheidai et al., Scientific Reports Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41598-026-42720-8

Analysis of the mechanism of MKK4 participating in heat stress response in Mytilus coruscus, Wei et al., Marine Environmental Research 10.1016/j.marenvres.2026.107956

Aragonite Saturation Horizon Variability Along North Pacific Seamounts and Implications for Deep-Sea Coral Reefs, Kassem et al., Journal of Geophysical Research Oceans Open Access 10.1029/2025jc023926

Assessing impacts of extreme climate and weather events on endangered pearl oysters Pinctada maxima, He et al., Marine Environmental Research 10.1016/j.marenvres.2025.107821

Biogeochemical signal from marine heatwaves, cold spells, and transient warming events in a coastal upwelling system, Valdés et al., Scientific Reports Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41598-026-62941-1

Climate change alters biogeochemical cycles in oxygen-depleted and dead zones, Bourbonnais et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-026-03756-w

Climate Change Enhances the Success of Marine Invasive Species, Smith & Cheung, Global Change Biology Open Access 10.1111/gcb.71020

Climate-Driven Population Dynamics, Growth, and Phenology of the Moon Jellyfish Aurelia coerulea in the Mediterranean Thau Lagoon, Pigeon et al., Marine Environmental Research Open Access 10.1016/j.marenvres.2026.107977

Climate-Driven Restructuring of Phytoplankton Productivity and Community Composition in the South-eastern Black Sea: Insights from Seasonal CO2-Temperature Manipulation Experiments, A??rba? et al., Marine Environmental Research 10.1016/j.marenvres.2026.108029

Disentangling the effects of FPAR, CO2, and climate on terrestrial vegetation productivity trends over two decades (2001–2023), Pu et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 10.1016/j.agrformet.2026.111122

Ecological novelty induced by climate change, Wright et al., Nature Climate Change 10.1038/s41558-026-02697-8

Ecosystem services can persist in drowning macrotidal salt marshes, Mason et al., Marine Environmental Research Open Access pdf 10.1016/j.marenvres.2026.108260

Establishing ring width and cell chronologies for predicting future growth of Thuja koraiensis under climate change, Park et al., Dendrochronologia 10.1016/j.dendro.2025.126423

First evidence of climate-driven modulation of octinoxate toxicity in the sea urchin Paracentrotus lividus, Costa et al., Marine Environmental Research Open Access 10.1016/j.marenvres.2026.107847

Global Change Reshapes Northern Lakes Towards Browner, More Nutrient-Depleted and Nitrogen-Limited Conditions With Contrasting Impacts on Phytoplankton Biomass, Bergström et al., Global Change Biology Open Access 10.1111/gcb.71008

Iceberg-driven constraints on colony–foraging connectivity result in severe decline in chick counts for the Coulman Island emperor penguin colony, Park et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-026-03764-w

In-situ experimental evidence revealing how ocean warming promotes Aurelia coerulea polyps mediated by benthic ecosystem change, Zang et al., Marine Environmental Research 10.1016/j.marenvres.2026.107853

Landscapes heavily impacted by human activities amplify climate sensitivity of Aleppo pine growth, Cappelluti et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 10.1016/j.agrformet.2026.111364

Marine heatwaves disrupt germination and seedling physiology in Zostera marina, Pieraccini et al., Marine Environmental Research 10.1016/j.marenvres.2025.107789

Microbial drought resistance is achieved at the expense of soil carbon loss, Pang et al., Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-026-76033-1

Modelling and geospatial mapping of whitefly Bemisia tabaci population dynamics in cassava-growing areas of Sub-Saharan Africa in response to climate change, Ndjomatchoua & Gilligan, Agricultural and Forest Meteorology Open Access 10.1016/j.agrformet.2026.111059

Moisture limitation superseding thermal forcing: Elevational divergence in growth and physiological responses of Picea crassifolia to accelerated warming and drying on the Northeastern Tibetan Plateau, Wang et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 10.1016/j.agrformet.2026.111377

Ocean acidification effects on growth, survival and physiological immunity of farmed Larimichthys crocea, Zhang et al., Marine Environmental Research 10.1016/j.marenvres.2026.107869

Penguins on the Move: Mapping Priority Penguin Habitat Areas Under Climate Change, Ramirez et al., Diversity and Distributions Open Access 10.1111/ddi.70233

Physiology and behaviour of eastern oysters (Crassostrea virginica) and soft-shell clams (Mya arenaria) under hypoxic and heatwave conditions, Talevi et al., Marine Environmental Research Open Access 10.1016/j.marenvres.2026.107902

Predicting the water temperature effects and climate change impacts on gametogenesis of the sea urchin Mesocentrotus nudus using a DVI model, Takagi et al., Marine Environmental Research 10.1016/j.marenvres.2026.107941

Projected declines in zooplankton energy supporting Northwest European Shelf ecosystems, Tyldesley et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-026-03840-1

Relationships Between Climatic Variation and Population Dynamics of the Threatened Mohave Ground Squirrel, Poessel et al., Ecology and Evolution Open Access pdf 10.1002/ece3.73952

Resilience of the macroalgae Gongolaria barbata under ocean acidification: physiological responses and restoration perspective, Ilaria et al., Marine Environmental Research Open Access 10.1016/j.marenvres.2026.107887

Responses of plant biomass to rising atmospheric CO2 concentration in the Yellow River Basin, Luan & Ma, Global and Planetary Change 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2026.105480

Strengthened resource limitation driven by accelerated microbial growth dampens response to elevated CO2 in a mature forest, Yuan et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-026-03365-7

The Impact of Subglacial Drainage System Evolution and Glacier Lake Outburst on Arctic Fjord Macronutrient Dynamics, Alexander et al., Journal of Geophysical Research Biogeosciences Open Access 10.1029/2023jg007969

Thermal responses and climate change implications of spring and autumn spawning Patagonian squid (Doryteuthis gahi) embryos, Grient et al., Marine Environmental Research Open Access 10.1016/j.marenvres.2026.107856

Tracing the imprints of dual stressors: eco-physiological and genotoxic insights from Mystus gulio under acidification and warming scenario, Mahapatra & Mandal, Marine Environmental Research 10.1016/j.marenvres.2026.108290

Tree-Ring Based Precipitation Reconstructions Reveal Hydroclimatic Variability and a Recent Drying Trend in Northeastern Iran, Mazaherifar et al., Dendrochronologia 10.1016/j.dendro.2026.126587

Understanding the resilience of Halophila ovalis to warming and nutrient enrichment for improved seagrass conservation policy, Yuxin et al., Marine Environmental Research 10.1016/j.marenvres.2025.107824

Warming overwhelms CO2-driven drought mitigation in alpine vegetation on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau, Lyu et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-026-03308-2

Widespread Increase in Global Plant Water Stress Obscured by Greening, Chang et al., AGU Advances Open Access pdf 10.1029/2025av002243

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Large potential impacts of marine heatwaves on ecosystem functioning, Global Change Biology, 10.1111/gcb.17437 29 cites.

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GHG sources & sinks, flux, related geochemistry

Applying satellite observations to improve bottom-up national emission inventories for methane: application to Colombia, Hancock et al., Atmospheric chemistry and physics Open Access pdf 10.5194/acp-26-10455-2026

Canopy-mediated climate feedbacks in the boreal continuous permafrost zone, Stuenzi et al., Nature Climate Change Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41558-026-02692-z

Carbohydrate-active enzymes of soil prophages enhance global carbon cycling potential, Liao et al., Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-026-75907-8

Carbon sink-source dynamics across ecuadorian coastal tropical dry forests: unraveling the seasonal balance of soil carbon inputs and CO2 efflux, Jarre-Castro et al., Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution Open Access pdf 10.3389/fevo.2026.1824696

COVID-19 induced reduction of fossil-fuel emissions in 2020 altered the seasonal cycle of atmospheric CO2 at high latitudes, Gui et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology Open Access 10.1016/j.agrformet.2026.111071

Extreme precipitation during the warm growing season amplifies methane emissions and reduces non-growing season contributions in a Tibetan alpine peatland, Lin et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 10.1016/j.agrformet.2026.111378

Floods Enhanced the Terrestrial and Marine Organic Carbon Burial in the East China Sea, Xu et al., Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research) Open Access 10.5281/zenodo.20278779

Global vessel carbon dioxide emission from navigable rivers, Lü et al., Nature Climate Change 10.1038/s41558-026-02718-6

High-resolution land surface modeling of climate and CO2 effects on ecosystem carbon-water coupling across the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, Xi et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 10.1016/j.agrformet.2026.111195

Higher, but more variable, annual CO2 emissions from lakes in drier Arctic landscapes, Hazuková et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-026-03275-8

Hydrological Threshold for Optimizing Wetland Climate Mitigation, Li et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2026gl123743

Leveraging wide snapshot XCO2 pre-training to estimate urban fossil fuel CO2 emissions from space, Wang et al., Remote Sensing of Environment 10.1016/j.rse.2026.115260

Long-Term Urban Emission Trends in Salt Lake City: Examining CO, CO2, and NOX Enhancements, Humble et al., Atmospheric Environment 10.1016/j.atmosenv.2026.121883

Microbial Functional Gene Abundance-Integrated Modeling of Global Methane Sinks in Upland Soils Under Future Climate Change, Xiao et al., Global Change Biology 10.1111/gcb.71026

Migratory bird aggregation drives seasonal greenhouse gas hotspots in restored wetlands, Zhang et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-026-03853-w

Modeling the impact of drainage on peatland CO2 and CH4 fluxes and its underlying drivers, Liu, HAL (Le Centre pour la Communication Scientifique Directe) pmh:oai:HAL:hal-05574304v1

Multi-Year Continuous Lateral Fluxes of Dissolved Carbon From a Microtidal Saltmarsh, He et al., Journal of Geophysical Research Biogeosciences 10.1029/2026jg009760

Rapid microbial production of long-lived dissolved organic carbon in the global ocean, Cai et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Open Access 10.1073/pnas.2601044123

Soil moisture-induced changes in land carbon sink projections in CMIP6, Gabele et al., Biogeosciences Open Access pdf 10.5194/bg-23-2729-2026

Spatio-temporal patterns and environmental controls of soil organic carbon stocks in global tidal wetlands since 2009, Yang et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-026-76092-4

Tall-tower isotope measurements to infer urban CO2 sources: a case study of Vienna, Austria, Meeran et al., Atmospheric Environment Open Access 10.1016/j.atmosenv.2026.122245

The added value of new ground-based observations in improving China's methane emission quantification, Zhong et al., Atmospheric measurement techniques Open Access pdf 10.5194/amt-19-4759-2026

The Evidence for Linearly Scaling Ocean Gas Exchange With Sea Ice Needs Strengthening, Watts et al., Journal of Geophysical Research Biogeosciences Open Access pdf 10.1029/2025jg009346

The timing of warming matters as much as its intensity for the annual carbon balance of a degraded raised bog, Behrens et al., Biogeosciences Open Access pdf 10.5194/bg-23-5071-2026

Thermogenic methane beneath the North Greenland Ice Sheet revealed by isotopic and geological evidence, Ketzer et al., Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-026-75951-4

Three-Fourths of Carbon Emissions From 2023 Record-Breaking Wildfires in Canada Traced to Soil and Peat Combustion, Zhong et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1029/2026gl123393

Transition of coastal marsh to mangrove forest: implications for Everglades CO2 and CH4 fluxes, Yannick et al., Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution Open Access pdf 10.3389/fevo.2026.1890986

VOCs Impact Soil Carbon Transformations and Sequestration, Zhang et al., Journal of Geophysical Research Biogeosciences 10.1029/2026jg010104

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Dual roles of microbes in mediating soil carbon dynamics in response to warming, Nature Communications, 10.1038/s41467-024-50800-4 92 cites.

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CO2 capture, sequestration science & engineering

Bioinspired charge reservoir enables efficient CO2 photoreduction with H2O via tungsten valence oscillation, Huang et al., Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-026-68991-3

CO2 subsurface mineral storage by its co-injection with recirculating water, Oelkers et al., Nature Open Access 10.1038/s41586-026-10130-5

Electrified reversible surface mineralization of CO2 for direct air capture, Liu et al., Nature Energy 10.1038/s41560-026-01989-9

Feasibility of CO2 pipeline construction to enable gigaton-scale carbon dioxide removals: evidence from historical precedent, Roberts et al., Frontiers in Climate Open Access 10.3389/fclim.2026.1807933

Nanoscale greenhouse effect for promoting solar-driven CO2 reduction with water to CH4, Kang et al., Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-026-70960-9

Observationally constrained global warming hysteresis under CO2 removal, Song et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-026-03484-1

Potential evaluation and favorable zone optimization of CO2 geological sequestration in deep coal reservoirs, Xue et al., Scientific Reports Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41598-026-42680-z

Reducing Uncertainties in Net Carbon Capture to Advance Wetlands as Natural Climate Solutions, Mistry et al., Journal of Geophysical Research Biogeosciences Open Access 10.1029/2025jg009136

Reflecting on the politics and power dynamics of contested climate technologies, Fritz et al., Environmental Science & Policy 10.1016/j.envsci.2026.104448

Rethinking expertise on climate cooling technologies, Carabajal et al., Environmental Science & Policy 10.1016/j.envsci.2026.104446

The renaissance of carbon capture and storage in Germany and the politics of conditionality, Haas et al., Environmental Politics Open Access pdf 10.1080/09644016.2026.2700726

Translating insights from progress in photovoltaics to accelerate industrial-scale CO2 electroreduction, Choi et al., Nature Energy 10.1038/s41560-025-01953-z

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Deployment expectations of multi-gigatonne scale carbon removal could have adverse impacts on Asia’s energy-water-land nexus, Nature Communications, 10.1038/s41467-024-50594-5 27 cites.

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Decarbonization

An Analysis of Future Wind Energy Resources and Cost Uncertainties Across the United States, Buster et al., Wind Energy Open Access 10.1002/we.70144

Assessing potential impacts of offshore wind development on U.S. marine ecosystems using food web modeling, Lato et al., Scientific Reports Open Access 10.1038/s41598-026-63407-0

Carbon-aware resource allocation and task offloading in EH-assisted edge-cloud systems, Fu et al., Scientific Reports Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41598-026-62950-0

Solar-driven co-production of C2H4 and H2O2 from CO2 and H2O, Xie et al., Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-026-69277-4

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Geothermal energy in Kenya: Evaluating health impacts and environmental challenges, Energy Sustainable Development/Energy for sustainable development, 10.1016/j.esd.2024.101522 23 cites.

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Geoengineering climate

Robust Solar Radiation Modification Strategy for Achieving Temperature Targets, Zheng et al., Risk Analysis 10.1111/risa.70312

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Effects of grain size and seawater salinity on magnesium hydroxide dissolution and secondary calcium carbonate precipitation kinetics: implications for ocean alkalinity enhancement, Biogeosciences, 10.5194/bg-21-3463-2024 13 cites.

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 Aerosols

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
A model study investigating the sensitivity of aerosol forcing to the volatilities of semi-volatile organic compounds, Atmospheric chemistry and physics, 10.5194/acp-24-8489-2024 6 cites.

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Climate change communications & cognition

Misperception of Extreme Weather Event Mortality Risk in the United States, Manware et al., GeoHealth Open Access 10.1029/2025gh001782

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Communicating the Links between Climate Change and Heat Waves with the Climate Shift Index, Weather Climate and Society, 10.1175/wcas-d-23-0147.1 13 cites.

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Agronomy, animal husbundry, food production & climate change

A data-driven method for identifying climate drivers of agricultural yield failure from daily weather data, Sweet et al., Geoscientific model development Open Access 10.5194/gmd-19-6687-2026

Agroforestry protects arable crops from climate shock during critical early-season phenological stages, Tosh et al., Agronomy for Sustainable Development Open Access pdf 10.1007/s13593-026-01129-3

Attribution analysis of historical and future global staple crop yield shocks to climate stressors, Xiao et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 10.1016/j.agrformet.2026.111340

Balancing growth, resource efficiency and soil greenhouse gas emissions: optimal water-fertilizer coupling for Chukrasia tabularis seedlings, Quan et al., Frontiers in Forests and Global Change Open Access pdf 10.3389/ffgc.2026.1914270

Carbon fluxes and partitioning in Eucalyptus and Pinus plantations across a climatic gradient in Brazil, Cunha et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 10.1016/j.agrformet.2025.110977

Designing agrivoltaic systems for plant protection, Vernier et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology Open Access pdf 10.1016/j.agrformet.2026.111361

Exposure risk of maize cropland under compound high-temperature and drought events over Northeast China in response to future warming, Yan et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access pdf 10.1016/j.accre.2026.07.015

Ocean acidification effects on growth, survival and physiological immunity of farmed Larimichthys crocea, Zhang et al., Marine Environmental Research 10.1016/j.marenvres.2026.107869

Quantifying the impact of extreme heat events on net ecosystem exchange in a wheat-maize cropping system in North China, Pei et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 10.1016/j.agrformet.2026.111379

Reduced phosphorus bioavailability in rice paddies intensified by elevated CO2-driven warming, Wang et al., Nature Geoscience 10.1038/s41561-026-01917-2

The economic dimension of climate-smart agriculture: bibliometric review of trends, challenges, and opportunities from an economic perspective, Jing et al., Environment Development and Sustainability 10.1007/s10668-026-07995-x

The occurrence of extreme heat events offset CO2 fertilization and deteriorate grain quality in double cropping rice systems under projected climate change, Liu et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 10.1016/j.agrformet.2026.111184

Warmer growing seasons improve cereal yields in Northern Europe only with increasing precipitation, Tootoonchi et al., Biogeosciences Open Access pdf 10.5194/bg-23-2583-2026

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Global assessment of production benefits and risk reduction in agroforestry during extreme weather events under climate change scenarios, Frontiers in Forests and Global Change, 10.3389/ffgc.2024.1379741 31 cites.

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Hydrology, hydrometeorology & climate change

Accelerating and Intensifying Dry-to-Wet Hydroclimate Whiplash Across the Contiguous United States, Yang & Li, Earth s Future Open Access 10.1029/2026ef008646

Amazon Dry Season Will Lengthen Under Future Climate, Ferreira et al., Global Change Biology Open Access 10.1111/gcb.71018

Anthropogenic Warming Increases Extreme Precipitation in Huaihe River Basin, China in 1961–2020, Guo et al., International Journal of Climatology 10.1002/joc.70525

Asynchronous Emergence of Water Scarcity Risks Amid Shifting Hydrological Regimes in High Mountain Asia, Zhao & Yang, Earth s Future Open Access 10.1029/2026ef008373

Dominant Controls on Preferential Flow and Their Implications for Future Soil Water Fluxes, Li et al., Earth s Future Open Access pdf 10.1029/2026ef008296

Future tropical cyclone rainfall constrained by increased atmospheric dryness, Chen et al., Nature Geoscience Open Access 10.1038/s41561-026-02047-5

Global Terrestrial Water Storage Projections and Uncertainty Decomposition Under Multiple Warming Levels, Kim et al., Earth s Future Open Access 10.1029/2025ef007835

Integrating climate projections and hydrological modeling for sustainable water management in a major indian peninsular basin, Thakur et al., Frontiers in Environmental Science Open Access pdf 10.3389/fenvs.2026.1835963

Intensifying Sub-Daily Rainfall Extremes in Tropical Cities: Projections From Downscaled Baselines in a Warming Climate, Blagojevi? et al., Earth s Future Open Access 10.1029/2025ef007703

Marine heatwaves in the Northeast Pacific intensify landfalling atmospheric rivers on the west coast of North America, Renkl et al., Scientific Reports Open Access 10.1038/s41598-026-62522-2

Nature-based solutions in arid and semi-arid countries: A review of best practices and lessons learned, Chiarelli et al., Urban Climate Open Access pdf 10.1016/j.uclim.2026.103060

Seasonal Asymmetry in Extreme Precipitation Intensification Across China's Drylands, Wang et al., Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres 10.1029/2026jd046518

U.S. rivers are transporting more suspended sediment, often in less time, Sigdel & Husic, Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-026-03847-8

Warming-Induced Increase in Flooding in the Taklimakan Desert, Su et al., Journal of Earth Science Open Access pdf 10.1007/s12583-025-2033-0

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Critical Effects of Precipitation on Future Colorado River Flow, Journal of Climate, 10.1175/jcli-d-23-0617.1 25 cites.

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Climate change economics

Climate change and high-quality economic development: Insights from the perspective of extreme temperatures, Li & Feng, Environment Development and Sustainability 10.1007/s10668-026-07996-w 

 

Climate change mitigation public policy research

2040 greenhouse gas reduction targets and energy transitions in line with the EU Green Deal, Rodrigues et al., Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-026-71159-8

A simplified method to calculate atmospheric CO2 equivalency for changing surface albedo, Akbari, Urban Climate 10.1016/j.uclim.2026.102795

Bricolage as an early-niche mechanism: Expectations and carbon lock-in in two Polish energy clusters, Stasik & Da?kowska, Energy Research & Social Science Open Access 10.1016/j.erss.2026.104861

California's plan to decarbonize electricity omits key greenhouse gas emissions, Fortier et al., Energy Policy Open Access pdf 10.1016/j.enpol.2026.115509

Cost-effective abatement of industrial sources of nitrous oxide with methane for urgent climate mitigation, Wu et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-026-75982-x

Eligibility interpreted as assurance and trust inflation in carbon credit markets, Kuwae, PLOS Climate Open Access pdf 10.1371/journal.pclm.0001001

Optimizing residential energy management through an integrated techno-economic evaluation of PV-battery systems, Kumar et al., Electrical Engineering 10.1007/s00202-026-03614-0

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Public acceptability of carbon pricing: unravelling the impact of revenue recycling, Climate Policy, 10.1080/14693062.2024.2376747 29 cites.

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Climate change adaptation & adaptation public policy research

A systematic global stocktake of evidence on human adaptation to climate change, Berrang?Ford et al., Nature Climate Change Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41558-021-01170-y

Beyond adaptive capacity: Assessing how power relations shape household responses to climate impacts on water and sanitation, Dickin et al., PLOS Climate Open Access 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000906

Building climate-resilient development pathways in China: Evaluating environmental policy impacts, Zhou et al., Environmental Science & Policy 10.1016/j.envsci.2026.104456

Deep uncertainty analysis to characterise regional climate for building stock transition: A Nordic empirical study, Feng et al., Urban Climate 10.1016/j.uclim.2026.103057

Europe's transport infrastructure is not ready to face climate change, Deidda et al., Natural hazards and earth system sciences Open Access 10.5194/nhess-26-3345-2026

From devolution to distortion: political and fiscal constraints on locally led adaptation in Kenya, Mulwa & Gravesen, Climate Policy 10.1080/14693062.2026.2703375

How urban system structure and land use dynamics jointly shape climate vulnerability in Northwestern China over the 21st century, Zhou et al., Urban Climate 10.1016/j.uclim.2026.103066

In search of climate migrants: a journey from crisis to opportunity, Ahmed et al., Climate and Development Open Access 10.1080/17565529.2026.2694724

Scenario Planning for Transformative Climate Adaptation, Mach et al., Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews Climate Change 10.1002/wcc.70084

Strategic streams of evolving climate policy and governance in Vietnam: Challenges and potentials for resilience, Doi et al., Environmental Science & Policy 10.1016/j.envsci.2026.104451

Unequal protection and sacrificial territories: climate governance and infrastructural exposure in Southern Italy, Terenzi & Paone, Environmental Sociology 10.1080/23251042.2026.2704993

Unraveling the nuances of climate change maladaptation: A call for more verstehen perspectives, Ofosu, PLOS Climate Open Access 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000784

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Nature-based solutions in spatial planning and policies for climate change adaptation: A literature review, AMBIO, 10.1007/s13280-024-02052-1 28 cites.

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Climate change impacts on human health

Climate change and health in the rural context: Vulnerability, capacity and outlook, Rose & Birchall, PLOS Climate Open Access 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000974

Climate regulation as cardiovascular prevention: Heart failure risks after the Endangerment Finding rollback, Nguyen et al., PLOS Climate Open Access pdf 10.1371/journal.pclm.0001006

Divergent Heat Assessments Across Thermal Stress and Sensation Metrics, Huang et al., Earth s Future Open Access 10.1029/2026ef008395

Drought amplifies the psychological burden of war, Döring et al., Nature Sustainability Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41893-026-01882-z

On the compound effect of humidity and temperature on mortality in the Eastern Mediterranean, Tzyrkalli et al., PLOS Climate Open Access 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000821

Survival First: How Citizens Prioritize Competing Climate-Health Risk Countermeasures Under Fiscal Constraints, Tanaka & ??, Risk Analysis Open Access 10.1111/risa.70315

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Framework of street grid-based urban heat vulnerability assessment: Integrating entropy weight method and BPNN model, Urban Climate, 10.1016/j.uclim.2024.102067 40 cites.

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 Other

Fire weather waves drive extreme fires globally, Yin et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-026-03858-5

Implementing a National Framework for Climate Services: Understanding Progress, Challenges, and Future Opportunities, Golding et al., Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 10.1175/bams-d-25-0281.1

Navigating optimal solar-wind trade-offs under climate change, Li et al., Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-026-75879-9

Projecting climate change impacts on Scottish River pollution, Corrochano-Fraile et al., Climate Risk Management Open Access 10.1016/j.crm.2026.100856

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Evolution of the Climate Forcing During the Two Years After the Hunga Tonga=Hunga Ha'apai Eruption, Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres, 10.1029/2024jd041296 32 cites.

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Informed opinion, nudges & major initiatives

Four years of PLOS Climate: Past, present and future, Boers et al., PLOS Climate Open Access 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000866

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
State of the UK Climate 2023, International Journal of Climatology, 10.1002/joc.8553 39 cites.

Articles/Reports from Agencies and Non-Governmental Organizations Addressing Aspects of Climate Change

The Environmental Footprint of Emerging Technology and Artificial Intelligence. Data Centers, Community Health and Policy Responses, Emma Uridge and Jasmin Kamruddi, Kansas Health Institute

The rapid growth and use of artificial intelligence (AI) is transforming many sectors, but it also has environmental implications that are complex and multifaceted. AI infrastructure drives increased demand for significant water use, greater energy consumption and expanded grid infrastructure, all of which require careful management to avoid environmental and community harm.

How Local Governments Can Use Communication to Drive Climate Action, Dwight et al., Yale University

The majority of constituents want local government climate action - 56% of registered voters want local government officials to do more to address climate change. With a duty to serve the public, local governments are well positioned to listen and respond — and the Yale Climate Opinion Maps include city- and county-level public opinion data to support your efforts. Know your audience and foster trust - To motivate climate action, governments must understand their communities and become trusted partners. Short surveys, message testing, and in-person engagement can help local governments understand what messages resonate and what issues are a priority for their audience. To build and retain trust, partnerships with community-based organizations, transparency, and frequent engagement are essential. Make climate action local - Many perceive climate change as a problem that is distant in time and space. Local governments can communicate local stories and social norms to help community members understand how climate change is impacting their community now — and that their neighbors are worried about it and taking action, even if they aren’t talking about it.

Protecting the nature of Texas, powering our clean energy future, Quentin Good and Luke Metzger, Frontier Group

Renewable energy developers in Texas have demonstrated many ways their siting practices and operations can minimize harm and even create new benefits from renewable energy projects. Texas should take steps to encourage the adoption of “best practices” by renewable energy developers that protect wildlife and landscapes while continuing the beneficial transition to clean energy. Operational changes and smart siting decisions can reduce the environmental impact of wind energy. The most serious environmental challenge posed by wind energy is its impact on birds and bats, but smart strategies – including those currently in use by Texas wind farm operators – have been proven to reduce collisions.

U.S. Can Cost-Effectively Supply One Third of Industrial Heat Demand Using Off-Grid Electric Thermal Storage and Heat Pumps, Dominguez et al., India Energy and Climate Center, Goldman School of Public Policy, University of California, Berkeley

Industrial heat is a major source of U.S. emissions and is challenging to decarbonize due to the availability of low-cost natural gas keeping fossil fuel heating highly competitive. Emerging low cost and efficient options such as thermal electric storage and industrial heat pumps offer a promising alternative when combined with local low-cost solar and wind power. Using facility-level emissions data and a geospatial assessment of nearby buildable land, the authors evaluate 3,559 industrial sites and three temperature ranges: low (0–200°C), medium (200–850°C), and high (above 850°C). For each site, the authors estimate how much heat could be supplied using off=grid renewable systems, its' cost, and how their potential grows as clean energy costs fall. By 2035, the authors found that renewable-powered heat systems could economically supply up to one third of U.S. industrial heat demand—3,255 trillion BTU out of 9,530 trillion BTU in total. This includes more than half of temperature heat needs above 200°C, particularly in states with higher natural gas prices and strong renewable resources, such as California and parts of the northern and eastern U.S. Local off-grid systems also avoid multiyear grid interconnection delays while reducing integration costs for many facilities.

Coal Beneath Federal Lands in the United States— Mines, Reserves, and Resources, Shaffer et al., US. Geological Survey

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) compiled a list of coal mines and tabulated the coal reserves and available coal resources beneath Federal lands in the conterminous United States. Coal resources beneath Federal lands in Alaska are also discussed in this report. In 2024, the 34 coal mines on Federal lands produced more than 261 million short tons of coal. Surface mining is used at 23 of the coal mines, and underground mining is used at 11. These 34 coal mines control more than 4.2 billion short tons of reported coal reserves. Most of the coal mines (31) and more than 98 percent of the reported coal reserves are on Federal lands west of the Mississippi River. Of all the States, Wyoming has the most coal mines on Federal lands (14) and produces the most coal from Federal lands. The Powder River Basin has the most coal mines per basin or coal field operating on Federal lands (12 in Wyoming, 2 in Montana). Most of the available coal resources in the conterminous United States are also west of the Mississippi River. There are five basins or coal fields in the West that each contain available coal resources of more than 25 billion short tons. The USGS estimates that more than 355 billion short tons of available coal resources remain beneath Federal lands in the conterminous United States. Alaska contains substantial quantities of coal resources. The USGS estimates that Alaska has at least 140 billion short tons of identified available coal resources but may ultimately have as much as 5.5 trillion short tons of coal resources.

Americans with disabilities are more likely than those without disabilities to say global warming is harming their health, Ettinger et al., Yale Program on Climate Change Communication

Americans with disabilities are more likely to think global warming is harming their own health than Americans without disabilities. Americans with and without disabilities have similar views on whether some groups of people are more likely to experience the health harms of global warming. Americans with disabilities have lower trust in several information sources about the health harms of global warming.

Paying for Resilience in New York State, Rebuild by Design and The New York State Adaptation Practitioners Network

Climate change has catalyzed new and opportunities and risks within nearly every dimension of New York State’s economy – with the costs being passed onto New Yorkers in the form of tax increases, medical bills, insurance hikes, damages, home repairs, and business losses. The authors present a first-of-its-kind inventory of the cost to adapt to climate effects. New York State will need to spend over $519 billion to build, upgrade, or adapt infrastructure to prepare for climate impacts. This accounts for costs of proposed, in-progress, and completed adaptation investments. The per capita cost of adapting New York State’s infrastructure is approximately $26,000. The highest regional adaptation cost, $387 billion, is in New York City, where the approximate per capita need is $50,000. The most substantial costs include culvert replacements, sewer and stormwater upgrades, and coastal defense on Long Island and in New York City.

Transmission Planning with Large Loads: Current Practices and Recommendations, Large Loads Task Force, Energy Systems Integration Group

The authors trace the structural reasons why the growth in data centers, AI facilities, and other large loads is outpacing existing transmission planning processes, which were designed for slower and more dispersed demand growth. They lay out what planners, utilities, and regulators can start doing now and over the longer term, as large load and associated generator interconnection requests continue to arrive faster than current planning processes can accommodate. The authors identify three structural reasons current planning processes struggle to keep pace including planning functions are siloed by jurisdiction, time horizon, and study method; there is a fundamental timing mismatch between how fast large loads want to connect and how long transmission takes to plan and build; and planners face a radically different level of demand uncertainty that current planning methods were not designed to handle. The authors distinguish between actions planners can take now with immediate payoff, such as studies that make visible where the grid can serve new load, tools that quickly expand available grid capacity, and coordinating assumptions across planning functions and structural shifts in the planning process, including moving from project-by-project upgrades toward proactive, scenario-based, multi-value planning with longer-term benefits.

Electricity Mid-Year Update 2026, Çam et al., The International Energy Agency

Amid the energy shock triggered by the war in the Middle East, the world’s electricity consumption is set to increase strongly in 2026, driven by rising demand from industry, appliances, cooling needs, data centers and electrification. This mid-year update builds on the comprehensive Electricity 2026 report published in February, providing an assessment of recent market developments and updated outlooks through 2027. It incorporates updated data for 2025 and new forecasts for 2026 and 2027, covering global electricity demand, generation by fuel, and carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from electricity generation, among other trends. The report also reviews the latest developments in major economies such as China, the European Union, India and the United States and provides updated tracking of wholesale electricity prices across markets worldwide.

Interfacing science and policy: Exploring the role of scientific knowledge in the design of Voluntary Sustainability Standards, Loconto et al., Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations

Through the concept of scientific cherry-picking, the authors analyze how Voluntary Sustainability Standards selectively incorporate particular strands of scientific knowledge that align with operational models and governance structures. This selective integration often leads to the promotion of interpretations of sustainability that are compatible with weak sustainability paradigms –emphasizing incremental improvements within existing systems – rather than fostering more systemic and transformative approaches.

Food Security Green Bonds. Scaling finance for sustainable and climate-resilient agrifood systems, Mikell O’Mealy, Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations

The authors examine the growing pressures on global agrifood systems, where hunger and food insecurity remain widespread and are expected to intensify under climate change and population growth. They highlight the dual challenge of expanding production to meet rising demand while addressing the sector’s significant contribution to greenhouse gas emissions and increasing climate risks that threaten agricultural land and livelihoods. Despite strong recognition by countries of the need for climate-smart agriculture and agrifood systems transformation, progress is constrained by a large financing gap. Current investment levels fall far short of the estimated USD 1.1 trillion required annually by 2030, with particularly acute shortfalls affecting smallholder farmers and agri-Subject Matter Experts. Public finance continues to dominate, reflecting both its catalytic role and the barriers limiting private sector engagement. The authors identify public-led green bonds as a practical avenue to mobilize private and institutional capital at scale.

Pay, Baby, Pay. Why Trump's Energy & AI Dominance Agenda Means Higher Bills For Everyone, Lorne Stockman, Oil Change International

U.S. wholesale fossil gas prices will likely double by the late 2030s relative to the 2020 to 2025 average if the Trump administration’s energy and AI policies succeed in pushing gas demand to levels that can only be met by more expensive gas production. Significant energy price volatility from 2020 to 2025 caused hardship in the U.S. and in LNG-importing countries, particularly in Asia and Europe. Costlier U.S. gas risks exacerbating the energy affordability crisis for U.S. and international consumers alike. The surge in gas demand – and gas prices – is being driven primarily by the Trump administration’s support for massive increases in liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports. Trump’s hostility toward renewables and support for the poorly regulated AI data center boom aggravate the impending crunch. Lower-cost gas from the two biggest U.S. gas-producing regions, the Permian and Appalachian basins, will not be able to meet rising demand alone. To fill the gap between demand and production, gas producers will have to increase drilling in the significantly more expensive Haynesville shale play in Louisiana and Texas. About New Research

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This is a re-post from Yale Climate Connections by Neha Pathak

Most of us sense it without being told why: A walk in the woods or an hour in the park leaves us calmer, clearer, and restored. Increasingly, modern science agrees. A growing body of evidence links time in nature to better physical and mental health – and a major new effort is working to document exactly what that evidence shows.

That effort is called the Nature Record, and its survival is a story in itself. It began as the National Nature Assessment, a federal undertaking modeled on the long-running National Climate Assessment and mandated by a Biden-era executive order. Roughly 180 scientists volunteered to develop about a dozen chapters. The project had reached an early public-comment draft when the Trump administration canceled it. Rather than abandon the work, the authors decided to finish it independently under a new name, with foundation funding and National Academy of Sciences review.

Howard Frumkin, a physician-epidemiologist and a professor emeritus at the University of Washington, led the assessment’s chapter on human health. Yale Climate Connections spoke with him about how the report survived, what the science says about nature’s health benefits, why those benefits aren’t shared equally, and what it all means for communities and the healthcare system.

This conversation has been edited for length and clarity.

Yale Climate Connections: The connection between nature, health, and climate change pulls together fields that don’t usually sit at the same table. How do you frame that intersection?

Howard Frumkin: This intersection of the natural world and human health – in the context of climate change – draws on three different lineages intellectually.

The first is the scientific evidence on the health benefits of nature contact, which is what the Nature Record is focusing on. So if you or I take a walk in a forest or in a park, we have nature contact, and something about that is good for us. We don’t fully understand. It might be the visual appreciation of beautiful nature; it might be phytoncides – biogenic chemicals that we’re inhaling. It could be the quiet, could be the physical activity. But nature also delivers benefits without direct contact: The upstream ecosystem in the watershed that delivers clean water is good for health. We may never go up there, but we still benefit from it.

The second is the whole literature on climate solutions, indicating that coastal mangrove forests and sponge cities and tree canopy deliver benefits both in terms of climate mitigation and adaptation: We can store carbon, reduce temperatures of neighborhoods, we can manage storm water.

Then there’s a third line of thinking, which has to do with the human relationship with the natural world. In Indigenous and tribal wisdom, there’s talk of reciprocity, the shared relationship that we have as part of nature, the obligations for stewardship, the legal concepts of the rights of nature. All of that is related to, but different than, the climate benefits piece because it’s explicitly not instrumental; it’s not transactional; it’s relational. You come into that thinking about the right relationship that we as humans should have with the natural world – not because of what it gets us.

Yale Climate Connections: So how did the Nature Record come to be, and how did the project survive after the federal government withdrew its support?

Frumkin: It was a pretty simple concept: the idea that you can’t take good care of what you don’t know. There was a perception that if we were to be good stewards of our natural heritage in this country, we needed an inventory. We needed to take stock of what we had, and not just at a fixed moment in time but over time to understand the trends that were affecting nature and the benefits it delivers. The model for doing that was the National Climate Assessment, which is the every-four-year assessment of climate change in the U.S. – how it’s unfolding, what the impacts are on humans – mandated by federal legislation back in the 1990s. It comes with lots of federal procedures, in terms of scientific rigor, transparency, public review, and so on. Out of that conceptual commitment to taking stock of what we have, and using the model of the National Climate Assessment, an executive order in the Biden administration mandated the creation of the National Nature [Assessment].

It got as far as a “zero order draft,” – what regular people call an outline – that was published in the Federal Record and made available for public comment. And no sooner did that happen than the Trump inauguration happened, and the Trump administration killed the National Nature Assessment.

By then we had rostered around 12 chapters with around 15 authors each, so we had 180 authors all volunteering time, representing academic institutions and agencies and NGOs across the country. And pretty much in the blink of an eye, everybody said, “Let’s do it anyway … This work is so important, and the value is so clear that we don’t need to be a federal undertaking.”

There were some legal issues, like we couldn’t use the same name; federal employees could no longer participate because of potential risks to them and to the project. We found foundation support in early 2025, and by mid-2025 [it was] clear that we had enough money, energy, and commitment that we could continue. We landed on the Nature Record, and we’re proceeding almost in some ways as if it were a federal document – with transparency, National Academy of Sciences review, very careful documentation of all factual claims – partly because rigor will give a lot of credibility to the report, and partly because it would be a good thing for this to return to being a federal effort. If we have followed all the rules, dotted all the i’s, and crossed all the t’s, this can be reimported into government.

That said, being nonfederal offers some advantages. We can be more flexible and nimble, more creative in the ways we undertake outreach and build partnerships, and publicize and disseminate what we find. In some ways, this is a blessing in disguise. We have, for example, a national poetry effort running alongside the Nature Record, and we’ve published a book of poetry. We’ve engaged young people in graphic arts related to the benefits of nature. Bringing that creativity to bear has been a really nice part of the project.

Yale Climate Connections: When you dug into the evidence for the health chapter, what were the biggest takeaways or trends you saw?

Frumkin: The first key message is that, in general, nature contact is good for people; it’s health-promoting. The second is that those benefits are unequally distributed across society. Some of us have much better or easier access to nature than others. It’s an equity issue, because poor people and people of color disproportionately tend to have less access to parks and high-quality park programming, through the legacies of redlining and other historical trends.

But it’s not just that conventional form of equity that’s important. People with disabilities have difficulty accessing natural places. Older people have difficulty because too many parks lack accessible trails and shade, and children often lack access because safe, easy access to green space is rare in many communities.

Another trend is more screen time and less green time. People are spending less time outdoors. On the other hand, there are some emerging technologies that may facilitate nature contact, such as Merlin [the birdsong identification app], which may help deepen people’s appreciation of nature, and there’s reason to think that being more familiar with it deepens nature connectedness.

Four takeaways about health and nature from the Nature Record

• Nature contact is broadly good for human health.
• Those benefits are unequally distributed – by race, income, age, and disability.
• Long-term trends, such as rising screen time and falling green time, are reshaping how people benefit – for better and worse.
• Evidence-based interventions, like well-designed park programming, can reliably strengthen nature’s health benefits.

Yale Climate Connections: If the evidence that nature helps is solid, how much do we actually know about why – and about how much nature is enough?

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Frumkin: One of the most interesting parts of this is that although we have pretty solid evidence that nature contact benefits health, we know precious little about how it works. So you may walk through a forest and benefit from seeing the natural beauty of the forest. We have lab evidence that T cells do better after contact with natural compounds than they otherwise would. It may be that the benefit comes from the fact that you’re walking through the forest with friends, and social contacts in natural settings are soothing and restorative. It may be that natural settings call on us just to get out there and take a walk, and the physical activity is a really effective promoter of good health.

Not knowing the pathways and mechanisms of benefits makes it a little difficult to prescribe. And we don’t know a lot about the varieties of nature and which ones are more or less effective. Do you need trees, or do shrubs do the trick? Do you need immersion, or viewing nature out the window? Do you need the real thing, or might virtual nature provide some of the same benefits? Do you need to get out every day, or does a few times a week suffice? So these are a lot of questions we still need to try to answer.

The potential benefits of nature contact are strong, much less expensive than pharmaceuticals, free of side effects, and don’t need to be prescribed by a licensed healthcare provider. The cost-benefit implications are potentially enormous if we get it right and understand best how to optimize those benefits.

Yale Climate Connections: As a physician, I hear a real fear of nature from patients: ticks and mosquito-borne disease, allergies, wildfire smoke, and extreme weather – and climate change is heightening those risks. How do you balance nature’s benefits against these threats?

Frumkin: Rarely in life can you eliminate risk altogether, but you can manage risk.

The risks of being outside: Well, there’s a risk of sunburn – but we can manage that risk with sunblock and with protective clothing. The risk of ticks – that’s a real risk. But we can manage that risk: inspecting ourselves after we’ve been in tick-infested areas and using bug repellent to keep the ticks away. So for each risk, we can reduce the risk by managing it well.

Yale Climate Connections: How do you hope communities will use the Nature Record?

Frumkin: So for communities, here’s an example. Almost every community in the country now has a housing shortage, and there is a need to build more housing. And to do that in economically and environmentally efficient ways generally means density. Density can collide with protecting nature. This report will make it clear that balancing the protection of nature with fulfillment of other human needs – like housing – is a key set of trade-offs we need to tackle and be explicit about.

Using the insights from this report, design strategies that both protect nature and provide nearby nature contact and also provide housing and transportation – which means in many cases nonmotorized transportation, active transport, cycling, and walking. The design of communities needs to take into account all these needs: environment, human, and equity.

Yale Climate Connections: Hospitals and health systems have a natural connection to health, not only through the care they provide but also through the spaces they create. As they consider land use decisions, including parking needs and opportunities for green space, what should they keep in mind?

Frumkin: Two thoughts. One is that we know a lot about how to build green, and that means the buildings themselves, with biophilic principles. It means the environmental performance of the buildings – what are called green buildings – and it means the situation of buildings in lots, protecting nearby nature. That’s a good way to build; it’s economical. There may be increased up-front costs, but they’re generally recoverable in a short number of years, and they deliver health benefits to patients and staff.

The second message is that nonprofit hospitals are required to carry out community health needs assessments and to invest in community health based on the findings of those assessments.

Nature deficit is a community health need, and in my view ought to be a part of every community health needs assessment. To the extent that it’s documented, hospitals can consider investing funds in local parks, either for developing parks or planning programming in parks that we know improve community health.

I would urge hospitals to think about nature deficit as one of those community health needs and then consider investments in nature contact for people in their catchment areas as a means of promoting public health.

Yale Climate Connections: Finally, what makes you most hopeful?

Frumkin: For me, one of the biggest potential sources of despair is the polarization and ideological hysteria that seems to be sweeping our country and many others as well. But this topic offers a counterbalance, because across the political spectrum people love the natural world and appreciate it.

Hunters and anglers and campers may be far right politically, but they have common cause with environmentalists who may be on the political left. There aren’t too many domains that can unite us across the ideological divide that bedevils the country now, but this is one.

I think the fact that we’re approaching this entire Nature Record in an apolitical way, and framing it in terms of benefits that all Americans can enjoy, gives me hope that we may be able to help overcome one of the biggest challenges we face.

Skeptical Science is partnering with Gigafact to produce fact briefs — bite-sized fact checks of trending claims. You can submit claims you think need checking via the tipline.

Do solar plants require backup from fossil fuels?

Solar plants require backup, but it doesn’t have to be from fossil fuels.

A combination of renewables, energy storage, and long-distance transmission can reliably power the majority of the U.S. without relying on coal, oil, or natural gas, as one 2017 research paper describes. Renewables like wind can generate under cloudy conditions, while surplus solar from brighter weather can be stored in utility-scale batteries for rainy days. Additionally, transmission from neighboring regions can assist solar capacity drops.

The Department of Energy and Princeton have outlined decarbonization scenarios projecting expansion of solar and decrease in fossil fuels while maintaining reliability. Analysis of real-world outcomes has found that renewables growth has actually outperformed projections.

California is an example of improving reliability while transitioning from fossil fuels to solar. From 2015 to 2025, in-state generation saw a jump in solar reliance from 8% to 27%, while natural gas dropped from 60% to 36%.

Go to full rebuttal on Skeptical Science or to the fact brief on Gigafact

This fact brief is responsive to quotes such as this one.

Sources

The Electricity Journal Reliably integrating variable renewables: Moving grid flexibility resources from models to results

The Alliance for Climate Transition Institute Solar energy requires 100% fossil fuel backup

Princeton University Net-Zero America

University of Virginia Decarbonization by 2050: Are We on Track?

California Energy Commission CA Electric Generation 2001-25

California Energy Commission California Energy Leaders Report Progress on Grid Reliability Ahead of Summer 2026

MIT The Future of Energy Storage

Columbia Law School Sabin Center for Climate Change Law Rebutting 33 False Claims About Solar, Wind, and Electric Vehicles

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This is a re-post from The Climate Brink

A graph has been making the rounds on social media showing the average number of days per weather station above 95F, 100F, and 105F across the contiguous US since 1895. It comes from CFACT analyst Chris Martz, drawing on raw data from NOAA’s Global Historical Climatology Network daily dataset (GHCNd), and it shows the 1930s towering over everything since. The implication is that extreme heat in the US is nothing new, and that all the recent fuss about record temperatures is overblown.

It is a compelling figure. The 1930s Dust Bowl really was an extraordinary period of extreme heat in the US, and no amount of correction for changes in measurement techniques over time makes it go away. But the graph is also a case study in why you cannot naively count threshold exceedances in raw daily station data and call it a climate record. Its results rest on two well-documented thermometer problems that artificially depress modern hot day counts, plus a station network that happens to be oversampled where the Dust Bowl happened.

Reproducing the viral chart

To start with, let’s reproduce the figure properly. Rather than averaging whatever stations happen to be reporting in a given year (the station network grew from a few hundred stations in 1895 to many thousands today, with big shifts in where they are located), I selected the 543 GHCNd stations in the contiguous US with long, near-continuous maximum temperature records over the full 1895-2025 period,1 gridded them to 2x2 degree cells, and computed an area-weighted national average.

Average number of days per year at or above 95°F, 100°F, and 105°F over the contiguous US, 1895–2025, from 543 long-record GHCN-Daily stations (raw, unadjusted TMAX), averaged on a 2°×2° grid with cos(latitude) area weighting.

Here we see the same basic story as the viral version: a huge spike in the 1930s (1936 alone averaged 33 days at or above 95F across these stations), elevated values through the mid-1950s, and nothing since that comes close. So the Martz figure is not fabricated, and its shape is not an artifact of the changing station network. To be fair to its author, counting hot days in raw data really does produce this picture.

The problem is what “raw” means here.

Two thermometer problems, both pointing the same way

Raw sounds virtuous, like unfiltered honesty. But the US cooperative observer network has changed in two important ways over the past century, and both changes bias hot day counts downward in recent decades relative to earlier ones.

The first is time of observation bias. Volunteer observers read and reset their max/min thermometers once a day. In the early 20th century most did so in the late afternoon, near the hottest part of the day. An afternoon reset means a very hot afternoon can get counted twice: once for the day it happened, and again the next day if the following afternoon is cooler, since the thermometer still holds yesterday’s peak. Over the 20th century the network gradually shifted to morning observations (better for measuring precipitation), which does not double count heat. Vose et al (2003) documented how this shift alone imparts a spurious cooling trend of a few tenths of a degree in US records, and the double counting directly inflates hot day counts at afternoon-observing stations.

The second is the thermometer switch. In the mid-1980s NOAA replaced liquid-in-glass thermometers in wooden Cotton Region Shelters with electronic maximum-minimum temperature sensors (MMTS) at most cooperative stations. Quayle et al (1991) showed the new sensors read maximum temperatures around 0.4C (0.7F) cooler than the old shelters. This produced a one-time step change at thousands of stations that landed right at the start of the modern warming era. When your threshold is a hard cutoff like 95F, a step down of nearly half a degree C removes a lot of days.

Homogenization algorithms (like NOAA’s pairwise method, Menne and Williams 2009, or the Berkeley Earth approach, Rohde et al 2013) detect and correct these breakpoints by comparing each station to its neighbors. Our 2016 paper validated these adjustments against the pristine, purpose-built US Climate Reference Network and found they perform well. While NOAA does not have daily homogenized data (they only provide monthly homogenized data), Berkeley Earth does. So let’s compare the raw hot day count to the same metric computed from Berkeley Earth’s homogenized daily maximum temperature fields.

Days per year at or above 95°F over the contiguous US. Top: raw GHCN-Daily data from 543 long-record stations, gridded and area-weighted. Bottom: Berkeley Earth homogenized daily TMAX (1°×1°, area-weighted over CONUS), with the dashed line showing the same calculation restricted to the grid cells containing the long-record stations. Absolute values differ because gridded fields smooth out local extremes; the shapes are the meaningful comparison.

The two datasets agree that the 1930s were exceptional. Where they disagree is the modern era: in the homogenized data, recent decades rival the Dust Bowl years CONUS-wide, with 2011 (16.1 days) actually edging out 1936 (14.0 days) as the biggest year in the Berkeley Earth series.

We can make the comparison cleaner by putting each series relative to its own 1951-1980 average:

Days ≥95°F, 11-year running means, with each series shown relative to its own 1951–1980 average. Red: raw GHCN-Daily long-record stations. Blue solid: Berkeley Earth homogenized daily TMAX over the full CONUS. Blue dashed: Berkeley Earth restricted to the grid cells sampled by the long-record station network.

The raw and homogenized series track each other closely for the first 85 years, through the Dust Bowl peak and the cool 1960s and 70s. Then, right around 1980 (just when the MMTS transition began), they split. The homogenized data rises to around 1.4 times its mid-century baseline while the raw data stays flat at roughly 1.0. The raw data does not exaggerate the 1930s, but rather erases the last 40 years of increases in extreme heat.

The dashed and solid blue lines in the figure are also worth a closer look. The dashed line averages the Berkeley Earth data over only the 130 grid cells where our long-record stations actually sit; comparing it to the raw series is the fair like-for-like test, since the places are the same and data adjustments are the only difference. The solid line averages over the whole country, and the gap between the two exposes a sampling problem rather than a data problem. Century-old stations cluster in the Midwest and East, which is precisely where the 1930s heat was centered and where extreme daytime heat has increased the least since. Averaged over the long-lived station locations, even in homogenized data, puts the 1930s roughly 45% above the last two decades. If we average over the full contiguous US, however, that gap shrinks to about 10%.

Locations of long-lived weather stations used in the reproducing the viral Martz figure. Note that these tend to oversample the Midwest region where dust bowl temperature extremes were most pronounced. A Dust Bowl story, not a national one

There is a second, subtler issue with interpreting the viral graph: geography. Long-record stations are heavily concentrated in the Midwest and East (only 116 of our 543, around a fifth, sit west of 100W), which happens to be exactly where the 1930s heat was centered. Let’s break the country into NOAA’s nine US climate regions and look at each one separately, using the spatially complete Berkeley Earth data.

Days per year at or above 95°F for each of NOAA’s nine US climate regions, 1895–2023, from Berkeley Earth homogenized gridded daily TMAX (1°×1°), area-weighted within each region. Thin lines are annual values; bold lines are 11-year running means. Note that the y-axis scale differs by region.

The Dust Bowl turns out to be a story about three regions. In the Upper Midwest the 1930s averaged around 15 times as many 95F days as the last two decades (3.4 vs 0.2 per year), in the Northern Rockies and Plains around 9 times (2.8 vs 0.3), and in the Ohio Valley around 4 times (8.7 vs 2.1), with 1936 the record year in all three.

Everywhere else the present rivals or beats the past: the South is essentially tied (22.4 days in the 1930s vs 22.7 over 2000-2023, with 2011 the biggest year in the record), while the Southeast (14.7 vs 11.1 days), Southwest (4.9 vs 3.9), and West (4.6 vs 3.6) all see more 95F days now than in the 1930s, with the two western regions peaking in 2020. (The remaining two regions, the Northeast and Northwest, average less than one 95F day per year throughout the record, too few for meaningful comparisons.)

The mid-century spike in that average comes almost entirely from three regions in the middle of the country. This makes physical sense: the Dust Bowl heat was tied to a specific regional catastrophe, a multi-year drought amplified by human-induced land degradation (Cook et al 2009), with bare, desiccated soils driving daytime temperatures to levels those same fields have not approached since. A record set during an ecological disaster in one part of the country is not evidence that the whole country, much less the planet, was hotter. The national chart is really being driven by a distinct regional anomaly.2

Meanwhile, the thermometers all agree it is warming

Finally, it is worth stepping back from the hottest afternoons of the year, which are a noisy, bias-sensitive sliver of the temperature record, and looking at what US temperatures as a whole are doing. The figure below shows annual average maximum, minimum, and mean temperatures for the contiguous US from NOAA’s homogenized nClimDiv dataset.

Contiguous US annual average daily maximum (TMax), minimum (TMin), and mean (TAvg) temperature anomalies relative to 1901–2000, from NOAA nClimDiv, 1895–2025. Thin lines are annual values; bold lines are 11-year running means.

All three are unambiguous. Since 1970, maximum temperatures have warmed at 0.52F per decade, minimums at 0.51F per decade, and the average at 0.51F per decade (all p < 0.0001), with the last decade roughly 2F above the 20th century baseline. The 1930s show up here too, but as a modest bump in maximum temperatures far below present (as the dust bowl event was largely limited to summer TMax temperatures, with a much smaller effect on the remainder of the year). Extreme daytime heat in summer is one of the places where the US warming signal is weakest (a real and interesting scientific result, related in part to agricultural intensification and irrigation in the Midwest (Mueller et al 2016), but it is not representative of the climate system as a whole.

Zooming all the way out

One last piece of context. The contiguous US covers less than 2% of the Earth’s surface, and as we saw above, even within the US the Dust Bowl signal is regional. So what does the very same chart look like for the planet as a whole? The figure below reproduces the design of the viral graph (days at or above 95F, 100F, and 105F) using the Berkeley Earth daily data over global land. To avoid mixing climate changes with changes in the locations we measure (global station coverage grew from under 40% of land area in the 1890s to essentially complete today), I restrict the average to the grid cells with continuous century-long records, covering 42% of global land.3

Average number of days per year at or above 95°F, 100°F, and 105°F across global land, 1895–2023, from Berkeley Earth homogenized gridded daily TMAX (1°×1°), area-weighted by cos(latitude) and land fraction. Restricted to grid cells with complete data in at least 90% of years over 1895–2023 (42% of global land area), so that changing station coverage does not affect the trend.

Globally there is no 1930s spike at all: 1936, the year that towers over the US record, comes in at 15.1 days at or above 95F, less than a day above the surrounding years. The Dust Bowl, extraordinary as it was in Kansas, barely registers when averaged over the world’s land. Instead, hot days hold roughly steady until around 1980 and then climb: days at or above 95F are up around 70% between the early 20th century (1895-1924) and the last decade (12.8 to 22.1 per year), days at or above 100F have more than doubled (3.0 to 7.5), and days at or above 105F have nearly quintupled (0.3 to 1.6). The hotter the threshold, the faster the rise, which is exactly what you expect when a whole temperature distribution shifts upward. All ten of the warmest years by the 95F metric have occurred since 1998, and the six most recent years in the series (2018-2023) are all among them.

The US Midwest is one of the few places on Earth where the hottest days of the mid-20th century still stand; picking it as your yardstick for global warming is, to put it charitably, a choice.

So what are the takeaways here?

First, the Dust Bowl was real, and it remains the benchmark for multi-year extreme daytime heat in the central US, in adjusted and unadjusted data alike. Anyone claiming the 1930s heat is purely an artifact of bad data is simply wrong.

Second, it was a regional phenomenon. Break the country into NOAA’s nine climate regions and the 1930s is only exceptional in only three of them (the Upper Midwest, the Northern Rockies and Plains, and the Ohio Valley, at roughly 4 to 15 times recent levels). The four regions where hot days are the most common (the South, Southeast, Southwest, and West) all match or exceed the Dust Bowl today, with record years of 2011 and 2020, not 1936.

Third, raw daily data is the wrong tool for this question. Time of observation changes and the 1980s switch to MMTS sensors both suppress modern hot day counts relative to the past, and the raw and homogenized series diverge almost exactly when the instrument transition happened. In homogenized data, recent decades rival the 1930s even averaged nationally.

Fourth, hot days above a fixed threshold are a narrow and noisy way to look at the data. The overall US warming trend (around 0.5F per decade since 1970 in max, min, and mean temperatures) is robust in every dataset, raw or adjusted, satellite or surface. And globally, days above 95F have been climbing steadily for a century, with no Dust Bowl bump at all: the central US is one of the few spots on the planet where the mid-20th century still holds the record for extreme daytime heat.

The viral chart is built from real measurements, and the heat it shows was real too. But it takes a regional catastrophe, fails to account for changes in instruments and observation times, and presents the result as a national climate verdict. Accounting for the thermometers and the geography, and the US looks a lot like the rest of the planet: the hottest days on record are increasingly the ones we are living through now.

I’ve included a more detailed writeup of the methods and code to reproduce this analysis on my GitHub here.

1 Specifically: stations whose GHCNd TMAX record spans at least 1900 through 2024, keeping station-years where at least 80% of April-October days have a valid, quality-controlled observation, and keeping stations valid in at least 85% of years over 1895-2025. Hot day counts are averaged within 2°×2° grid cells and combined with cos(latitude) area weighting over the 130 cells with near-complete records. The results are insensitive to these choices: stricter completeness screens shrink the network but leave the series essentially unchanged (details and robustness checks are available in the methods writeup on my GitHub). A map of the station network is also available in the repo; note that coverage is much denser east of 100W, a point that becomes important later in the post.

2 This also explains most of the difference between the dashed and solid blue lines in the “days ≥95°F, 11-year running means” figure. The long-record station network oversamples the region where the 1930s were most extreme and undersamples the South and West where recent warming has added the most 95F days.

3 This matters a lot. Computed naively over whatever area has data each year, the global days above 95F triple from ~12 to ~37 days per year, but much of that rise is an artifact of hot regions (the Sahara, the tropics, interior Australia) entering the dataset over time. On the fixed network the increase is a still-substantial ~75% (from ~13 to ~22 days per year). The fixed-coverage region is disproportionately Northern Hemisphere midlatitude land, so this series should be read as “hot days where we have century-long records” rather than a true global land average.

A listing of 28 news and opinion articles we found interesting and shared on social media during the past week: Sun, July 19, 2026 thru Sat, July 25, 2026. Stories we promoted this week, by category:

Climate Change Impacts (11 articles)

• Insane': Republicans Push To Punish Canada For Wildfires “We will not tolerate this incompetence,” vowed Ohio Sen. Bernie Moreno, who may not understand how climate change works. Huffington Post, Jennifer Bendery, Jul 17, 2026.
• UN to list more sites as 'in danger' from conflict or climate change Phys.org, Simon Valmary and Celia Lebur, Jul 18, 2026.
• As mosquito ranges expand, better monitoring is key to preventing disease Monitoring is expensive and labor intensive. But it helps public health officials stop outbreaks. Ars Technica, Madeline Shaw, Jul 19, 2026.
• Climate Scientists Say The Dice Are Loaded. Here's Why "Just have a Think" on Youtube, Dave Borlace, July 19, 2026.
• Opinion: Is the Colorado River in a climate doom loop? We caused a problem, and our efforts to fix the problem make it worse Colorado Newsline, Gary Wockner, Jul 20, 2026.
• Rising seas magnify the dangers of coastal Georgia`s industrial past The state’s first Superfund research center is looking into how climate change is resurfacing industrial pollution. Grist, Emily Jones, Jul 20, 2026.
• Extreme heat morphs into a major economic shock for an unprepared Europe Europe’s status as the planet’s fastest-warming continent is becoming a serious drag on its economic prospects. The Business Standard, Laura Millan, Jul 21, 2026.
• What Happens to Our Brains in a Warming World? In this era of advancing AI, when everyone is debating the nature of 'intelligence,' we have forgotten that our brains run well only within a narrow band of temperature. What happens to the brain once that temperature threshold is crossed is often overlooked in discussions of climate change. State of the Planet, Marco Tedesco and Burcin Ikiz, Jul 22, 2026.
• The year climate change came for the Tour de France Record heat, wildfire threats, and an unprecedented stage modification highlighted the growing challenge global warming poses to endurance sports. Grist, Tik Root, Jul 23, 2026.
• Climate change to obliterate $1.5 trillion in U.S. home values Climate change will wipe out about $1.47 trillion in U.S. home values over the next three decades and hasten economic gaps in U.S. communities, a report released on Monday finds. CBS News, Kate Gibson , Jul 23, 2026.
• This El Niño is set to be the largest on record by a ‘mind-blowing margin’ Forecasters predict that the monster climate pattern will combine with global warming to push global temperatures in 2027 to new heights. Nature, James Dinneen, Jul 23, 2026.

Climate Policy and Politics (5 articles)

• How Companies Have Abandoned Their Climate Goals and Let Themselves Off the Hook Big business made big promises about saving the planet. Following through hasn’t been easy. New York Times, David Gelles, Jul 17, 2026.
• Trump threatens new Canada tariffs over fires sending 'filthy' air into US cities US President Donald Trump has threatened to impose new tariffs on Canada after hundreds of wildfires have left much of the northern US covered by a blanket of smoke. BBC News, Nadine Yousif, Jul 18, 2026.
• Majority of US voters link extreme weather to climate crisis, study finds Top Democrat says findings show public ‘way ahead of the politicians’ as Trump dismisses global heating as ‘hoax’ The Guardian, Dharna Noor with graphics by Andrew Witherspoon, Jul 19, 2026.
• Trump Lashes Out at National Academies of Sciences Over Climate Guide For Judges Trump claimed without evidence that the manual was “fraudulent, biased, and misleading.” Inside Climate News, Dennis Pillion, July 20, 2026.
• Q&A: What the EU`s carbon market review means for climate action The European Commission has put forward new plans to cut emissions under the EU carbon market more slowly, from 2031 onwards. Carbon Brief, Orla Dwyer, Jul 20, 2026.

Climate Education and Communication (3 articles)

• Why Earth is reflecting less sunlight Climate change is first and foremost an emissions problem. It’s also fast becoming a reflection problem. Climate Trunk, John Lang, Jul 21, 2026.
• The climate crisis onscreen: 14 films that made waves Climate-themed films matter more than ever as the Trump administration weakens environmental protections. Here are some of the best and most meaningful ones. Capital & Main, Alex Demyanenko, Jul 22, 2026.
• Trump calls climate change a hoax. Americans aren`t buying it New polling finds broad agreement that the climate crisis is worsening heat, floods, and wildfires. Mother Jones, Dharna Noor, Jul 24, 2026.

Climate Science and Research (3 articles)

• Skeptical Science New Research for Week #29 2026 A regular weekly survey of climate-related research from academic, government and NGO sources. Skeptical Science, Doug Bostrom & Marc Kodack, Jul 16, 2026.
• Skeptical Science New Research for Week #30 2026 Skeptical Science, Doug Bostrom & Marc Kodack, Jul 23, 2026.
• France orders total evacuation of Cap Ferret peninsula as wildfire spreads ‘Unpredictable’ blaze forces evacuation of holiday spot Cap Ferret and Spain declares emergency over fires near Madrid The Guardian, Jon Henley in Paris and Sam Jones in Madrid, Jul 24, 2026.

Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation (2 articles)

• Lake Powell shrinks and marinas must adapt “The Colorado River is in full-blown crisis mode,” said John Berggren, regional policy manager with Western Resource Advocates, an environmental nonprofit. AP News, DORANY PINEDA and JOHN LOCHER, Jul 22, 2026.
• Air conditioning is not enough to keep people cool — can scientists find an alternative? Air conditioning can end up as a climate maladaptation due to installation and operation expenses as well as serious side-effects, but advances in methods to passively cool buildings hint at solutions without drawbacks. Nature, Rachel Fieldhouse, Jul 22, 2026.

Miscellaneous (2 articles)

• 2026 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #29 A listing of 28 news and opinion articles we found interesting and shared on social media during the past week: Sun, July 12, 2026 thru Sat, July 18, 2026. Skeptical Science, Bärbel Winkler & Doug Bostrom, Jul 19, 2026.
• Oil Firms Knew for Decades of Methane’s Danger to Planet, Documents Suggest The companies knew they were releasing more of the greenhouse gas than they publicly reported, according to industry files cited by the Center for Climate Integrity, an activist organization. NYT, Hiroko Tabuchi, Jul 21, 2026.

Climate Law and Justice (1 article)

• Trump Attacks National Academies Over Climate Chapter in Judges` Manual The president joined Republican officials who slammed the National Academies of Sciences for a chapter about climate science in an educational guide for judges. NYT, Karen Zraick, Jul 20, 2026.

Public Misunderstandings about Climate Science (1 article)

•  Hot days, cold thermometers Why a viral graph on US days above 95F is misleading and overstates regional warmth The Climate Brink, Zeke Hausfather, Jul 22, 2026.

If you happen upon high quality climate-science and/or climate-myth busting articles from reliable sources while surfing the web, please feel free to submit them via this Google form so that we may share them widely. Thanks!

Open access notables

Record-low 2025 and 2026 ice extents restore Arctic winter sea-ice decline, Chan et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences

Recent analyses have suggested that the decadal rate of Arctic winter sea-ice extent decline weakened in the early 2020s, with 20-y trends becoming statistically insignificant. Here we show from more up-to-date observations that the exceptionally low 2025 and 2026 ice extent winters reversed this picture, with sea-ice extent during the growth and peak phases returning to record lows and 20-y decline trends becoming significant again. Further analysis of CMIP6 model analogues shows that the observed 2025 decline was unusual but physically plausible under comparable Arctic warming, and is more consistent with ongoing winter sea ice reduction than with a return to values seen in the early 2020s.

As the planet heats, public doubt grows: The social structure behind rising climate change scepticism in Germany, Gies & Deutschmann, Global Environmental Change

In 2024, global heating exceeded 1.5 °C for the first time. Paradoxically, as the climate crisis becomes ever more evident, climate change scepticism (CCS) has recently grown (rather than declined) in Germany, a high-emissions country with enormous responsibility. Past research has not systematically studied which social groups and characteristics are behind this shift. We address this gap by examining the social structure of rising CCS in Germany, taking its multidimensionality into account. Drawing on GESIS Panel data that is representative of the German adult population, we detect a strong and consistent increase across a comprehensive set of 14 CCS indicators between 2022 and 2023. We find that this rise in scepticism is not driven by a small and ‘loud’ minority but rather constitutes a mass phenomenon: on average across all items, CCS increased among 59% of respondents, and for 93% of respondents at least one indicator rose. Regression models reveal a complex picture with socio-structural effects depending on the dimension of CCS, but right-wing political orientation, government distrust, and hierarchical worldviews are most consistently associated with increases in CCS. Overall, political attitudes – which are flexible and have shifted substantially in recent years – relate far more strongly to rising CCS than stable socio-structural factors like income or gender. These findings demonstrate an urgent need to restore trust in political institutions and to foster inclusive, participatory climate dialogue to secure broad public support for the transition towards a carbon-neutral society.

Climate Obstruction in the Digital Far-Right: Mapping the Climate Countermovement in German-, Danish-, and Swedish-Speaking Digital Information Environments, Henriksen et al., Environmental Communication

This article examines how climate obstruction narratives circulate in far-right digital information environments in Austria, Germany, Denmark, and Sweden. We analyzed 41 million social media posts published across multiple social media platforms from 2019 to 2022. Using multilingual text classification and actor–source mapping, we identified which posts contained climate obstruction narratives, which actors produced them, and which sources they cited. The results revealed three configurations. In the German-speaking environment (Germany and Austria), obstruction is mainly driven by far-right citizen accounts embedded in a hyperpartisan media ecosystem. In Sweden, far-right grassroots actors coexist with climate-focused organizations that bridge mainstream and alternative sources. In Denmark, obstruction is comparatively mainstream-embedded and anchored in organizations and citizen groups drawing on legacy news. The article discusses how national media systems, political fields, and far-right actor constellations make certain forms of obstruction communicatively viable and thereby shape the digital climate countermovement.

Mapping climate change coverage: Causes, consequences, and solutions in German news media, 2010–2024, Dablander et al., Energy Research & Social Science

The media shapes how political leaders and the public understand the causes, impacts, and solutions to climate change. Here, we provide the most extensive analysis to date of how German news media report on climate change between 2010 and 2024. We develop and validate a methodology based on large language models to analyze the contents of over 50,000 articles from seven major newspapers across the political spectrum. We found that aspects relating to causes, impacts, and mitigation were all covered substantially more often than aspects relating to adaptation. While most articles identified climate change as human-caused, coverage about causes was dominated by fossil fuels, with agriculture, overconsumption, carbon inequality, and economic growth rarely mentioned. Left-leaning outlets more frequently reported that climate change is human-caused, highlighted fossil fuels as a cause, emphasized the need to reduce their use, and discussed systemic and social drivers more often. Coverage patterns have remained largely stable over time, except for growing attention to net-zero targets and carbon taxes. Our findings highlight opportunities for more comprehensive climate journalism to better support public understanding and policy debate by reflecting the scientific consensus and the full range of societal transformations needed to address climate change.

From this week's government/NGO section:

Attribution of Extreme Weather and Climate Events and Their Impacts, National Research Council, The National Academies Press

Decades of data and research indicate that human-caused climate change is altering the frequency and intensity of several types of extreme events, such as heat waves and extreme rainfall events. Even as those trends become clearer, extreme event attribution (EEA) seeks to assess the degree to which climate change contributed to any specific event. EEA studies provide information that can be useful for public understanding, planning and risk management, policy and legal contexts, and scientific research. The authors evaluate the state of EEA science, updating a National Academies report published in 2016. The authors also assess the emerging field of extreme event impact attribution (EEIA). The number of EEA studies has grown substantially over the past decade as scientific tools, observational datasets, and methods have advanced, enabling attribution studies to be completed within days of an event. However, challenges remain, including limited model capabilities for small-scale regional events, representation of key atmospheric processes, and attribution of compounding, cascading, and record-breaking events. The authors examine these advances and remaining challenges and provide recommendations for strengthening attribution science, improving collaboration with local experts and stakeholders, and advancing research, data, and modeling capabilities worldwide.

Early Warnings: Government Knowledge of Climate Change and Legal Responsibility for Climate Harm, Lindsay Fenlock and Nikki Reisch, Center for International Environmental Law

The authors examine publicly available government records, scientific evidence, and historical archives to document when major emitting States became aware of the causes and foreseeable consequences of climate change. They demonstrate that many governments understood the risks decades earlier than they have claimed, strengthening the evidentiary foundation for climate litigation, human rights, and climate advocacy, and the implementation of the International Court of Justice climate advisory opinion. By tracing the history of government knowledge, the report provides a critical resource for advancing climate accountability and ensuring that high-emitting States are held responsible for failing to prevent the climate crisis. 284 articles in 105 journals by 2495 contributing authors

Physical science of climate change, effects

A 21-Year Global Daytime Satellite Climatology of Cirrus Cloud Cover and Its Links to Upper-Tropospheric Conditions and Aviation Over Europe and the North Atlantic, Huu et al., International Journal of Climatology 10.1002/joc.70506

A Reconciled Satellite Record Reveals a Negative Low Cloud Feedback Over the Past 47 Years, Cesana & Arouf, Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2026gl124158

Distinct Characteristics of Contiguous Heatwaves Across Terrestrial, Marine, and Coastal Environments, Bekris et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2025gl118531

Explaining the Equatorial Pacific Thermocline Response to Climate Change With a Model Hierarchy, Luongo et al., Journal of Geophysical Research Oceans Open Access 10.1029/2025jc023559

Heating the land cools the eastern and equatorial Pacific, Günther et al., Science Advances Open Access pdf 10.1126/sciadv.aeb7004

How Clear-Sky Spectral Overlap Shapes Radiation in Cloudy Atmospheres, Czarnecki & Pincus, Journal of Climate pdf 10.1175/jcli-d-25-0589.1

Marine Heatwave Imprints on Salinity in the Northwest Atlantic, Stamper et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2026gl124293

Nordic overturning increases as AMOC weakens in response to global warming, Roewer et al., Ocean science Open Access pdf 10.5194/os-22-1195-2026

On the Utility of the Transient Climate Response, Jeevanjee et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2025gl121354

Post-1990s Warming of Circumpolar Deep Water Off West Antarctica and Its Drivers, Damini et al., Journal of Geophysical Research Oceans Open Access 10.1029/2025jc023856

Projected Arctic Ocean Warming Accompanied by a Restructuring of the Overturning at the Fram Strait and the Barents Sea Opening, Oldenburg et al., Journal of Climate 10.1175/jcli-d-24-0735.1

The remarkable inefficiency of stratocumulus, Hernandez et al., Atmospheric chemistry and physics Open Access pdf 10.5194/acp-26-9337-2026

Trans-basin linkages prolong Northwestern Pacific marine heatwaves through a circumglobal wave pattern, Zhao & Yu, Science Advances Open Access 10.1126/sciadv.adz4647

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Climate and Tropospheric Oxidizing Capacity, Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Sciences, 10.1146/annurev-earth-032320-090307 21 cites.

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Observations of climate change, effects

Climate Warming Intensifies Cascading Risks Along the Heatwave-Drought-Wildfire Hazard Chain in Northeast Asia, Liu et al., International Journal of Climatology 10.1002/joc.70507

Decadal Shifts Towards Higher Riverine Silicon Relative to Nitrogen and Phosphorus Across High Latitudes, Carey et al., Global Biogeochemical Cycles Open Access 10.1029/2025gb008926

Distribution characteristics of newly formed glacial lakes across High Mountain Asia during 2000–2020, YIN et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access pdf 10.1016/j.accre.2026.07.007

Drought, heatwave, and fires: The impact on air quality during São Paulo's record-breaking fire season in 2024, Silva et al., Urban Climate Open Access 10.1016/j.uclim.2026.103045

Frequent, Intense and Prolonged Human-Perceived Heat Waves Over the Arabian Peninsula in Recent Decades, Ullah et al., International Journal of Climatology Open Access 10.1002/joc.70510

Increasing Tropical Cyclone Activity Over the North China Plain, Liu et al., Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres 10.1029/2026jd046567

Indicators of Global Climate Change 2025: annual update of key indicators of the state of the climate system and human influence, Forster et al., Earth system science data Open Access 10.5194/essd-18-3889-2026

Indicators of Global Climate Change 2025: annual update of key indicators of the state of the climate system and human influence, Forster et al., Earth system science data Open Access 10.5194/essd-18-3889-2026

Precipitation Over the Contiguous United States Is Coming From Farther Away Than in the Past, Aerenson et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2026gl122565

Record-low 2025 and 2026 ice extents restore Arctic winter sea-ice decline, Chan et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Open Access 10.1073/pnas.2614134123

Time series forecasting of climate variables in three selected major cities in Nigeria, Ibrahim et al., Urban Climate 10.1016/j.uclim.2026.103014

Warming Trends in Basin-Scale Heatwaves Across Ethiopia: An Observational Analysis Using Crossing Theory, Gebremariam et al., International Journal of Climatology pdf 10.1002/joc.70477

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Impact of an unprecedented marine heatwave on extremely hot summer over Northern Japan in 2023, Scientific Reports, 10.1038/s41598-024-65291-y 41 cites.

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Instrumentation & observational methods of climate change, effects

A four-decade global Lagrangian air-parcel trajectory dataset for atmospheric moisture and heat analysis, Deman et al., Earth system science data Open Access 10.5194/essd-18-4593-2026

Attribution of 2022 and 2023 extreme heat in China using conditional and unconditional frameworks, Zhang et al., Weather and Climate Extremes Open Access pdf 10.1016/j.wace.2026.100937

CoCO2-MOSAIC 1.0: a global mosaic of regional, gridded, fossil and biofuel CO2 emission inventories, Urraca et al., TNO Repository Open Access pdf pmh:oai:oai-pmh.tno.nl:58273

FORMS: Forest Multiple Source height, wood volume, and biomass maps in France at 10 to 30 m resolution based on Sentinel-1, Sentinel-2, and GEDI data with a deep learning approach, Schwartz et al., HAL (Le Centre pour la Communication Scientifique Directe) Open Access pmh:oai:HAL:hal-04499509v1

Modeling air temperature from snow-buried sensors to refine multi-decadal warming trends in Great Basin National Park, NV, USA, Mazan et al., Theoretical and Applied Climatology Open Access pdf 10.1007/s00704-026-06436-z

Multidecadal reconstruction of terrestrial water storage changes by combining pre-GRACE satellite observations and climate data, Hacker et al., Earth system science data Open Access 10.5194/essd-18-1747-2026

PolyU2025 SLA: a global 0.25°  ×  0.25° monthly sea-level anomaly dataset (1993–2024) determined from satellite altimetry for sea-level and climate change research, Yuan et al., Earth system science data Open Access 10.5194/essd-18-4155-2026

Robustness of Radiative Kernel Methods in Reproducing Arctic Outgoing Longwave Radiation Variability, Liu & Jin, Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres 10.1029/2025jd046213

Satellite estimation of global air sea CO2 flux from 2000 to 2020, Ji et al., Scientific Reports Open Access 10.1038/s41598-026-51215-5

Sensitivity of marine heatwaves metrics to SST products, focusing on the Tropical Pacific, Chevillard et al., Ocean science Open Access 10.5194/os-22-1213-2026

Temporal Heterogeneity of In Situ Ocean Observing Capacity Could Cause an Artificial Intensification of Extreme Warm Water Events Globally, Wang et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2026gl123043

Wikimpacts 1.0: a new global climate impact database based on automated information extraction from Wikipedia, Li et al., Natural hazards and earth system sciences Open Access pdf 10.5194/nhess-26-2609-2026

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
ClimaMeter: contextualizing extreme weather in a changing climate, Weather and Climate Dynamics, 10.5194/wcd-5-959-2024 39 cites.

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Modeling, simulation & projection of climate change, effects

Assessing projected changes in meteorological drought severity and frequency under future climate scenarios: Insights from CMIP5 Models in Eastern Tigray, Northern Ethiopia, Rubangakene et al., PLOS Climate Open Access pdf 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000944

Enhanced ENSO-driven potential predictability over the Euro-Atlantic under greenhouse warming, Santuy et al., npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Open Access 10.1038/s41612-026-01482-w

Enhanced response of extreme compound events to cumulative CO2 emissions, Li et al., Nature 10.1038/s41586-026-10544-1

Future Shifts in Severe Storm Environments Revealed through Profile-Based Clustering, Hua, Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research) Open Access 10.5281/zenodo.20469719

Heterogeneous future Arctic Ocean primary productivity changes projected in CMIP6, Champiot-Bayard et al., Biogeosciences Open Access 10.5194/bg-23-4735-2026

Impact of Continental Configuration on the Climate Response to Greenhouse-Gas Forcing in an Idealized GCM, Bonan et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2025gl120128

Irreversible climate changes driven by degree-years of temperature overshoot, Dickau et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-026-03761-z

Responses of the Tropical Easterly Jet to Different Global Warming Patterns and Implications for Future Tropical Cyclone Activity, Zhan et al., Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 10.1007/s00376-026-5865-3

Small Tropical Islands Also Exposed to Extreme Humid Heat by the End of the Century, Bald et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2026gl122466

Spatiotemporal variation and future projections of air freezing and thawing indices in China–Mongolia–Russia under CMIP6 warming scenarios, JIANG et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access pdf 10.1016/j.accre.2026.07.009

The Destination Earth digital twin for climate change adaptation, Doblas-Reyes et al., Geoscientific model development Open Access 10.5194/gmd-19-2821-2026

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Asymmetries in the Southern Ocean contribution to global heat and carbon uptake, Nature Climate Change, 10.1038/s41558-024-02066-3 23 cites.

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Advancement of climate & climate effects modeling, simulation & projection

Application and Evaluation of a Novel Python-Based Ensemble Data Assimilation Framework NEDAS in Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM), Liu et al., Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres pdf 10.1029/2025jd045622

Climate models with moderate climate sensitivity best simulate the magnitude of Earth's energy imbalance, Bimpiri et al., Earth System Dynamics Open Access pdf 10.5194/esd-17-877-2026

CMIP7 data request: Earth system priorities and opportunities, McPartland et al., Geoscientific model development Open Access pdf 10.5194/gmd-19-2849-2026

CMIP7 data request: ocean and sea ice priorities and opportunities, Fox-Kemper et al., Geoscientific model development Open Access pdf 10.5194/gmd-19-6043-2026

Contribution of physical latent knowledge to the emulation of an atmospheric physics model: a study based on the LMDZ Atmospheric General Circulation Model, Crossouard et al., Geoscientific model development Open Access pdf 10.5194/gmd-19-5907-2026

Developing Guidelines for working with Multi-Model Ensembles in CMIP, Katzenberger et al., Earth System Dynamics Open Access pdf 10.5194/esd-17-495-2026

Ecosystem climate sensitivities drive the divergence in aerosol-induced carbon uptake across CMIP6 models, Zhang et al., Geoscientific model development Open Access pdf 10.5194/gmd-19-5363-2026

EXSoDOS 1.0: downscaling of weather extremes shifts for ensemble climate projections using ground-based measurements, reanalysis and stochastic modelling, Wouters et al., Geoscientific model development Open Access pdf 10.5194/gmd-19-5805-2026

Future Global Warming Constrained by Observed AMOC Strength, Hao et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2025gl118802

Global climate modeling with improved precipitation characteristics by learning physics (GRIST-MPS v1.0) from global storm-resolving modeling, Wang et al., Geoscientific model development Open Access 10.5194/gmd-19-5553-2026

Hacking Kilometer-Scale Models: A Participative Model for Climate Information, Gettelman et al., Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 10.1175/bams-d-25-0183.1

North Atlantic influence reconciling model-observation discrepancy in the tropical Pacific warming pattern, Lin & Watanabe, Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-026-73763-0

Past, present, and future arctic radiative states simulated by Polar-WRF, Bertossa et al., Atmospheric chemistry and physics Open Access pdf 10.5194/acp-26-3653-2026

Stratospheric Subtropical Transport Barriers in CESM1-WACCM and Observations: Climatology, Variability, and Trends, Ivaniha et al., Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres 10.1029/2025jd045069

The coupled Southern Ocean–Sea ice–Ice shelf Model (SOSIM v1.0): configuration and evaluation, Liu et al., Geoscientific model development Open Access 10.5194/gmd-19-2985-2026

The Influence of Tropopause Temperature Biases on Climate Model Simulations of Tropical Cyclones, Mahoney et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1029/2025gl120545

The Radiative Forcing Model Intercomparison Project (RFMIP2.0) for CMIP7, Kramer et al., Geoscientific model development Open Access 10.5194/gmd-19-4447-2026

The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP7 (ScenarioMIP-CMIP7), Vuuren et al., Geoscientific model development Open Access pdf 10.5194/gmd-19-2627-2026

Winter Arctic polynyas in CMIP6 models, Heuzé et al., cryosphere Open Access 10.5194/tc-20-3643-2026

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Comparison of three reanalysis-driven regional climate models over New Zealand: Climatology and extreme events, International Journal of Climatology, 10.1002/joc.8578 11 cites.

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Cryosphere & climate change

An improved 15-year record of ice sheet elevation from CryoSat-2 radar altimetry, Huang et al., Remote Sensing of Environment 10.1016/j.rse.2026.115561

Brief communication: Temperature-driven shrinkage of a disappearing Himalayan glacier, Fujita & Kayastha, cryosphere Open Access 10.5194/tc-20-4005-2026

Climate change induces rapid growth of dead ice in Asian glaciers, Wang et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2026.06.008

Increased Frequency, Duration, and Area of Winter Polynyas North of Greenland in a Warming Climate, Shu et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2025gl121125

Increasing Winter Storminess in the Southern Ross Sea, Antarctica, and Its Impact on Land-Fast Sea-Ice, Radlwimmer et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2026gl123090

Learning to melt: Emulating Greenland surface melt from a polar RCM with machine learning, Schlager et al., cryosphere Open Access 10.5194/tc-20-3313-2026

Mass changes of the Antarctic Peninsula ice sheet and peripheral glaciers, 2007–2021, Bernat et al., cryosphere Open Access 10.5194/tc-20-3025-2026

Observation-constrained explainable reconstruction of Antarctic sea ice snow depth reveals strong regional asymmetry during 1993–2021, Cao et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access pdf 10.1016/j.accre.2026.07.008

Record-low 2025 and 2026 ice extents restore Arctic winter sea-ice decline, Chan et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Open Access 10.1073/pnas.2614134123

The Greenland GNSS Network (GNET): geodetic grade GNSS measurements of Greenland's 3D bedrock displacement from 1995–2025, Solgaard et al., Earth system science data Open Access 10.5194/essd-18-5117-2026

Three Decades of Glacial Changes on the Western Antarctic Peninsula Revealed by Historical Aerial and High-Resolution Satellite Imagery, Thota et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2026gl122660

Unveiling the Role of Sea-Ice Loss in Early-20th-Century Arctic Warming, Li et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2025gl121178

Wintertime evolution of landfast ice stability in Alaska from InSAR, Einhorn & Mahoney, cryosphere Open Access 10.5194/tc-20-3683-2026

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Stability of Ice Shelves and Ice Cliffs in a Changing Climate, Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Sciences, 10.1146/annurev-earth-040522-122817 38 cites.

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Sea level & climate change

PolyU2025 SLA: a global 0.25°  ×  0.25° monthly sea-level anomaly dataset (1993–2024) determined from satellite altimetry for sea-level and climate change research, Yuan et al., Earth system science data Open Access 10.5194/essd-18-4155-2026

Quantifying UK coastal flood exposure under future sea-level rise to 2300, Palmer et al., Explore Bristol Research pmh:oai:research-information.bris.ac.uk:openaire_cris_publications/62032aef-becd-4ddc-a902-ff39b2c8a275

Sea level rise and fall north of Greenland reorganize Arctic freshwater export to North Atlantic, Wang et al., Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-026-75610-8

The economically optimal mix and timing of coastal adaptation in Europe to 2150, Völz et al., Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-026-74042-8

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Implications of Variability and Trends in Coastal Extreme Water Levels, Geophysical Research Letters, 10.1029/2024gl108864 14 cites.

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Paleoclimate & paleogeochemistry

Climate-extreme-driven genesis of a cretaceous dinosaur Lagerstätte, Fanti et al., Global and Planetary Change Open Access 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2026.105589

Continental-scale fern savannah wildfires during end-Triassic greenhouse warming, Hollaar et al., Repository@Nottingham (University of Nottingham) Open Access pmh:oai:nottingham-repository.worktribe.com:66232704

Dynamic Deglacial Evolution of Interior Seaways and Ice Streams in the Weddell Sea Embayment, Bollen et al., Paleoceanography and Paleoclimatology Open Access 10.1029/2026pa005438

Ice core nitrogen isotopes archive dramatic changes in West Antarctic Ice Sheet thinning, King et al., Climate of the past Open Access pdf 10.5194/cp-22-1291-2026

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
The 4.2 ka BP event in western Anatolia: Tracing the impact of climatic change, The Holocene, 10.1177/09596836241259774 4 cites.

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Biology & climate change, related geochemistry

Adaptational lag at high elevations depends on life stage in a California wildflower, Quarles et al., Journal of Ecology pdf 10.1111/1365-2745.70379

Additive Dominance and Context-Dependent Nonlinearities in Soil Greenhouse Gas Responses to Concurrent Global Change, Ding et al., Global Biogeochemical Cycles 10.1029/2026gb009164

Biogeography of Stress: Graded and Threshold Phenological Responses in European Beech-Dominated Forests Under Disruptive Heatwaves, Cesaretti et al., Global Change Biology 10.1111/gcb.70986

Body Size Decline in an Endangered Bat Is Associated With Climate Change at a Continental Scale but Varies by Phenophase and Region, Zuben et al., Global Change Biology Open Access 10.1111/gcb.70983

Climate change is likely to negatively affect a marine apex predator (Steno bredanensis, Cetacea) and its prey on the coast of Brazil, Ferreira et al., Marine Environmental Research 10.1016/j.marenvres.2026.108065

Climate Crisis in the Mediterranean Hotspot: Conservation Challenges for Endangered Salamanders in Southern Türkiye, Ananymous, Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research) Open Access 10.5281/zenodo.19074814

Climate physical risks, ecological resilience, and spatial spillovers: evidence from China, He et al., Frontiers in Environmental Science Open Access 10.3389/fenvs.2026.1879596

Climate-driven distribution dynamics of the teak defoliator Hyblaea puera under current and future climate scenarios, Mahanta et al., Frontiers in Forests and Global Change Open Access 10.3389/ffgc.2026.1843989

Climate-induced forest destabilization and shrub stabilization in Africa, Cheng et al., Global and Planetary Change 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2026.105627

Climate-Driven Changes in Resources Shift Reproductive Season and Effort of Insectivorous Montane Bird Species, Whelan & Garfinkel, Global Change Biology 10.1111/gcb.71013

Climatic stress and species interactions shape tree vitality decline in Iberian pine species, Aguirre et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology Open Access pdf 10.1016/j.agrformet.2026.111333

Current and future thermal habitat suitability of the European clam Ruditapes decussatus (Linnaeus, 1758) in Mediterranean coastal lagoons, Palmas et al., Marine Environmental Research Open Access 10.1016/j.marenvres.2026.108139

Differential responses of trees to heatwaves in a desert-oasis ecotone: the role of isohydric/anisohydric stomatal regulation, Huang et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 10.1016/j.agrformet.2026.111362

Diurnal cycles of cloud and rainfall over North-East Queensland during the coral bleaching season, Chapman et al., Weather and Climate Dynamics Open Access pdf 10.5194/wcd-7-1265-2026

Effects of ocean acidification on radular tooth material properties in Littorina littorea (Gastropoda, Mollusca), Krings et al., Marine Environmental Research Open Access 10.1016/j.marenvres.2026.108096

Global analysis suggests nitrogen deposition as an underestimated driver of vegetation greening, Trepel et al., Ecography Open Access 10.1002/ecog.08631

Here Comes the Heat: Urban Warming Increases Abundance but Compromises Fitness in the Common Woodlouse, Jame et al., Ecology and Evolution Open Access 10.1002/ece3.73654

Intact coastal nursery rearing amid climate-driven phenological shifts in threatened salmon, Munsch et al., Conservation Biology Open Access 10.1111/cobi.70355

Long-Term Population Monitoring Reveals Changes in Mesocarnivore Occupancy in Response to Severe Drought, Tucker et al., Ecology and Evolution Open Access pdf 10.1002/ece3.73960

Mass flowering of the seagrass Posidonia oceanica after 2022 record-breaking marine heatwaves, a Pan-Mediterranean study, Astruch et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-026-03631-8

Masting Breakdown in European Beech Reduces Fitness Benefits of Masting, Partly Explained by Climate Change, Jantzen et al., Ecology and Evolution Open Access 10.1002/ece3.73809

Metabolic trade-offs shape acute thermal responses in the marine predator Rapana venosa, Xu et al., Marine Environmental Research 10.1016/j.marenvres.2026.108249

No apparent impact of moderate temperature increase on growth and fecundity in the sea star Asterias rubens, Bourg & Keraudran, Marine Environmental Research Open Access 10.1016/j.marenvres.2026.108072

Ocean acidification influence on Cymodocea nodosa seedling development, Crobu et al., Marine Environmental Research 10.1016/j.marenvres.2026.108272

Past Acropora mortality on the Great Barrier Reef linked to climate variability and anthropogenic impacts, Clark et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-026-03800-9

Projecting seasonal and future thermal suitability of the invasive and commercially valuable Manila clam Ruditapes philippinarum (A. Adams and Reeve, 1850) in a warming Mediterranean sea, Chiappi et al., Marine Environmental Research Open Access pdf 10.1016/j.marenvres.2026.108263

Range-edge asymmetry in growth responses of English yew to climate warming: Stronger responses near the northern limit, Camarero et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology Open Access pdf 10.1016/j.agrformet.2026.111354

Seabird range contraction and dispersal under climate change, Avaria-Llautureo et al., Nature Climate Change Open Access 10.1038/s41558-026-02655-4

Shifts in climate-growth relationships of Pinus kwangtungensis in a warming subtropical forest of China, Yu et al., Dendrochronologia 10.1016/j.dendro.2026.126574

Shifts in growth phenology of Tsuga dumosa in the central Himalayas under climate warming, Rai et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 10.1016/j.agrformet.2026.111307

Temporal Autocorrelation Increases Temperature-Driven Extinction Risk by Clustering Stressful Conditions, Robey et al., Ecology Letters pdf 10.1111/ele.70441

The North Atlantic Subpolar Gyre and Phytoplankton Bloom Under Potential Future Climate Scenarios, Oliver et al., Journal of Geophysical Research Oceans Open Access 10.1029/2025jc023561

Water-use strategy shift mediates C4 plant response to altered precipitation seasonality, Zhou et al., Global and Planetary Change 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2026.105616

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Whole-genome duplication in an algal symbiont bolsters coral heat tolerance, bioRxiv (Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory), 10.1101/2022.04.10.487810 28 cites.

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GHG sources & sinks, flux, related geochemistry

A Top-Down View of Global and Regional Carbon Budgets From an Ensemble of Atmospheric Inversions, Woude et al., Global Biogeochemical Cycles Open Access 10.1029/2025gb008779

Abiotic CO2 cycling in a desert soil: Linking surface fluxes and subsurface dynamics across seasons, Bekin et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology Open Access 10.1016/j.agrformet.2026.111250

Adapter-enhanced CLIP for railway brake shoe anomaly detection, Shehzad et al., Complex & Intelligent Systems Open Access 10.1007/s40747-026-02377-2

Addition of brackish water to tundra soils does not inhibit methane production: implications for Arctic coastal methane production, Roy-Lafontaine et al., Biogeosciences Open Access pdf 10.5194/bg-23-3777-2026

Airborne Observations Reveal Underestimated Riverine Methane Emissions Across the Amazon, Ort et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2026gl122310

Anthropogenic perturbations to atmospheric methane reflected in Greenland firn air clumped isotope measurements, Sivan et al., Science Advances Open Access 10.1126/sciadv.aeb2203

Body mass index, sedentary lifestyle, and HbA1c predict cardiac autonomic neuropathy in type 2 diabetes, Haji et al., Cardiovascular Diabetology – Endocrinology Reports Open Access 10.1186/s40842-026-00308-1

Briefing Chat: Sweet! Elusive sugar molecules found in space, Thompson & Howe, Nature 10.1038/d41586-026-02263-4

Capturing the Global Variability of Marine Particulate Organic Carbon Flux: A Hierarchical Bayesian Approach, Edwards et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2026gl123203

Carbon input manipulation significantly alters soil CO2 and CH4 fluxes across stand ages in boreal birch forests of China, Gao et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 10.1016/j.agrformet.2026.111212

Comparative effects of A-site ionic radius and disorder on structure, magnetism, and transport in perovskite La0.8Sr0.1A0.1MnO3 (A=Ca, Sr, Ba), Zhang et al., Journal of Materials Science Materials in Electronics 10.1007/s10854-026-18036-8

Disease landscape–guided design of neutrophil-specific reporters for early and accurate pneumonia detection in vivo and in urine, Li et al., Science Advances Open Access 10.1126/sciadv.aeb4417

Divergent long-term trends in vegetation carbon turnover between mature and young forests, Ren et al., Journal of Ecology 10.1111/1365-2745.70396

Dynamical analysis of a discrete reaction-diffusion-convection predator-prey model based on coupled map lattices, Du & Han, Journal of Applied Mathematics and Computing 10.1007/s12190-026-02860-6

Effects of hummock-hollow microtopography on CO2 and CH4 emissions from sedge peatlands in the Changbai Mountains, Northeast China, Li et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 10.1016/j.agrformet.2026.111220

Environmental controls and temporal trends of CO2 and CH4 emissions in a former cultivated peatland under rewetting, Pullens et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology Open Access 10.1016/j.agrformet.2026.111363

Evaluation of a Decade of Methane Observations From a Tower Network in Indianapolis, Indiana, Barkley et al., Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres Open Access 10.1029/2026jd046734

Fatigue Properties of WAAM-Fabricated 2209 Duplex Stainless Steel Evaluated by Temperature Measurement and Heat Source Reconstruction, Viola et al., Experimental Mechanics 10.1007/s11340-026-01354-7

Filtering of Second Order Generalized Stochastic Processes Corrupted by Additive Noise, Wahlberg, Journal of Fourier Analysis and Applications Open Access 10.1007/s00041-026-10282-y

Geochemistry of CO2-rich gas emissions in the Carpathians: Multiscale geological sources and implications for orogenic degassing, Kis et al., Earth-Science Reviews Open Access 10.1016/j.earscirev.2026.105528

GHGPSE-Net: a method towards spaceborne automated extraction of greenhouse-gas point sources using point-object-detection deep neural network, Pang et al., Geoscientific model development Open Access pdf 10.5194/gmd-19-1683-2026

Global burden and temporal trends of colorectal cancer in East Asia based on the global burden of disease 2023 study, Qin et al., Discover Oncology Open Access 10.1007/s12672-026-05561-5

Global warming makes nitrogen oxide abatement key to ozone pollution mitigation, Wang et al., Science Advances Open Access 10.1126/sciadv.aea4124

High-performance multijunction perovskite LEDs with reduced interconnection loss, Zhao et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-026-75756-5

Hybrid Neuro-Symbolic Models for Transparent and Adaptive Decision-Making in Dynamic Real-World Environments, Welekar et al., National Academy Science Letters 10.1007/s40009-026-02325-1

Incorporating observed fire severity in refined emissions estimates for boreal and temperate forest fires in the carbon budget model CBM-CFS3 v1.2, Thompson et al., Geoscientific model development Open Access 10.5194/gmd-19-3617-2026

Increasing Warming May Inhibit Land Carbon Uptake in Northern High Latitudes, Madani et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2026gl122135

Insights of climate-driven changes in CH4 and CO2 source contributions at European coastal observatories, Adame et al., Atmospheric Research Open Access 10.1016/j.atmosres.2026.109076

Iron overload suppresses LKB1 and induces IL36G anti-tumor immunity in PDAC metastasis, Biancur et al., Science Advances Open Access 10.1126/sciadv.adz8681

Leader as the “Glue” that holds the teams together: examining how identity leadership influences intra-team cooperation and inter-team knowledge sharing, Feng et al., Current Psychology 10.1007/s12144-026-09780-5

Livestock grazing, plant community and abiotic factors shape blue carbon stocks in Nordic coastal marshes, Richard et al., Biogeosciences Open Access pdf 10.5194/bg-23-4583-2026

Methane and Ethane Emission Rates, Intensities, and Trends: Aircraft Mass Balance Insights Over the Denver-Julesburg Basin, Fall 2021, Daley et al., Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres Open Access 10.1029/2025jd044370

Methane and Nitrous Oxide Reshape the Air-Water Greenhouse Gas Budget of a Tropical Estuarine Delta, Cotovicz et al., Journal of Geophysical Research Biogeosciences Open Access 10.1029/2026jg009956

Methane oxidation in African and European rivers depends on stream size and wetland connectivity, Borges et al., Science Advances Open Access 10.1126/sciadv.aeb8250

Microstructural Evolution and Acid Corrosion Mechanism of Laser-Clad FeCoNiCrx High-Entropy Alloy Coatings, Xiao et al., Metallurgical and Materials Transactions A 10.1007/s11661-026-08305-w

Neoadjuvant Chemoradiotherapy on Postoperative Complications of Rectal Cancer: A Retrospective Study Integrating MRI Radiomics and Deep Learning, Bu et al., Journal of Imaging Informatics in Medicine 10.1007/s10278-026-02137-1

Organic carbon oxidation state shapes fermentative methanogenic microbiomes and controls greenhouse gas fluxes, Hu et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-026-73281-z

Organic Matter Stoichiometry Regulates the Continental Shelf Carbon Pump Efficiency of the Northwest European Shelf Seas, Demir et al., Global Biogeochemical Cycles Open Access 10.1029/2025gb008724

Peatlands Have the Potential to Emerge as Significant Contributors to Future Climate Warming, Chaudhary et al., Journal of Geophysical Research Biogeosciences Open Access 10.1029/2025jg009540

Permafrost carbon release scales linearly with overshoot warming mediated by AMOC tipping, Steinert et al., Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-026-73612-0

Physics-constrained machine-learning surrogates for the colebrook friction factor: monotonic gradient boosting, uncertainty quantification, and open benchmarking, Müftüo?lu, Scientific Reports Open Access 10.1038/s41598-026-62231-w

Plants are a powerful proxy for global tidal marsh methane fluxes, Wilson et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Open Access 10.1073/pnas.2530848123

PLATO on the footsteps of Kepler for transit timing, Maltagliati, Nature Astronomy 10.1038/s41550-026-02933-3

Projected future warming induces a long-term loss in global dissolved organic carbon pool, Tjiputra et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-026-03809-0

Quantifying facility-scale CO2 emissions using spaceborne hyperspectral imageries, Han et al., Remote Sensing of Environment 10.1016/j.rse.2026.115478

Rademacher-type exact formula and higher order Turán inequalities for cubic overpartitions, Agarwal et al., Research in Number Theory pdf 10.1007/s40993-026-00765-8

Rapid and sensitive NO2 detection using optimized flower-like ZnO nanorods synthesized via chemical bath deposition, Ambi et al., Journal of Materials Science Materials in Electronics 10.1007/s10854-026-18001-5

Reversed functional gradient in primate prefrontal cortex: Posterior dominance and frontopolar task-related deactivation, Watanabe et al., Science Advances Open Access 10.1126/sciadv.aea1094

Revising the Magnitude and Trends of the Global Methane Soil Sink With Process-Based, Machine-Learning, and Atmospheric Inversion Modeling Approaches, Oh et al., Journal of Geophysical Research Biogeosciences Open Access 10.1029/2025jg009668

Rock weathering can counteract river CO2 emissions induced by permafrost thaw, Zhang et al., Nature Open Access 10.1038/s41586-026-10664-8

Satellite estimation of global air sea CO2 flux from 2000 to 2020, Ji et al., Scientific Reports Open Access 10.1038/s41598-026-51215-5

Shoreline exposure controls teal carbon accumulation in boreal lakes, Dauner et al., Biogeosciences Open Access pdf 10.5194/bg-23-3637-2026

Short-Term Effects of PM2.5 Exposure on Hematological and Biochemical Blood Indices in the Middle-Aged and Elderly, Dinh et al., Aerosol and Air Quality Research Open Access 10.1007/s44408-026-00131-4

Simultaneous measurements of translation rate and transcriptome uncovers linked regulation within an active bacterial cell population, Baumann et al., Science Advances Open Access 10.1126/sciadv.adz1707

Soil Carbon Saturation Constrains Long-Term Sequestration Under Revegetation on China's Loess Plateau, Zhang et al., Earth s Future Open Access 10.1029/2025ef006739

The RhMPK3-RhLOB41-RhWRKY9 module orchestrates ethylene-induced petal abscission via dual control of ROS homeostasis in rose, Zhang et al., Science Advances Open Access 10.1126/sciadv.adu6821

The spliceosome component SNRPC promotes glioma progression by sustaining mitochondrial function and TNFAIP2 signaling, Ma et al., Cell Death and Disease Open Access 10.1038/s41419-026-09065-6

Towards operational automated greenhouse gas plume detection and delineation, Bue et al., Remote Sensing of Environment Open Access 10.1016/j.rse.2026.115506

TundraFlux: A database of ecosystem respiration with biotic and abiotic metadata from Arctic and alpine tundra warming experiments, Schwieger et al., Earth system science data Open Access pdf 10.5194/essd-18-4965-2026

Understanding the resilient carbon cycle response to the 2014–2015 Blob event in the Gulf of Alaska using a regional ocean biogeochemical model, Abe et al., Biogeosciences Open Access pdf 10.5194/bg-23-3871-2026

Urban CO2 and CH4 pilot atmospheric measurements in the Milan city area (Northern Italy), Cristofanelli et al., Atmospheric Environment Open Access 10.1016/j.atmosenv.2026.122124

Varicose projection astrocytes: Conserved reactive cells in brain pathology, Ciani et al., Science Advances Open Access 10.1126/sciadv.ady8204

When trust building looks like surveillance: Public polarization toward Chicago policing, Cheng & Liu, Science Advances Open Access 10.1126/sciadv.aeb7575

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Trends and Drivers of Terrestrial Sources and Sinks of Carbon Dioxide: An Overview of the TRENDY Project, Global Biogeochemical Cycles, 10.1029/2024gb008102 121 cites.

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CO2 capture, sequestration science & engineering

Contrasting first-year and tenth-year responses of soil CO2 efflux and soil carbon storage indicators to biochar addition in plantation forests, Yu et al., Frontiers in Forests and Global Change Open Access 10.3389/ffgc.2026.1879259

Global quantification of the eco-hydrological co-benefits of soil carbon sequestration, Vanderkelen et al., Biogeosciences Open Access 10.5194/bg-23-3829-2026

Hydrogen bond network disruption enables efficient direct reactive capture of CO2 from flue gas, Liu et al., Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-026-74647-z

Insights lost at points of vulnerability in UK policy evidence gathering on carbon dioxide removal, Hope & Vaughan, Environmental Science & Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.envsci.2026.104412

Mapping CO2 Migration Pathways: Interactions With Geological Structures, Ashmore et al., Edinburgh Research Explorer Open Access pmh:oai:pure.ed.ac.uk:openaire/0386afc5-3b2c-436f-b35d-44a153274556

Naturalness catalyzes public support for carbon dioxide removal and low-carbon energy technologies, Coffin & Boven, Open MIND pmh:10.17605/osf.io/g37ku

Unobserved confounders cannot explain over-crediting in avoided deforestation carbon projects, Guizar-Coutiño et al., Nature Ecology & Evolution Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41559-026-03049-7

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Cost-effectiveness of natural forest regeneration and plantations for climate mitigation, Nature Climate Change, 10.1038/s41558-024-02068-1 75 cites.

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Decarbonization

A global feasibility gap in resilient island energy transitions, Huang et al., Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-026-75606-4

Accuracy, robustness and comprehensibility – Challenges in bottom-up energy system models, Prina & Noussan, PLOS Climate Open Access 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000890

Beyond lithium: how sodium-ion batteries could change the world, Castelvecchi, Nature 10.1038/d41586-026-02150-y

Climate change reshapes resource adequacy risks and optimal renewable energy siting in wind and solar energy systems, Qiu et al., Nature Energy 10.1038/s41560-026-02109-3

Climatic Impacts of Large-Scale Wind Farms in Arid and Semi-Arid Region in China: A Case Study of the Huitengxile Wind Farm in Inner Mongolia, Su et al., Wind Energy Open Access 10.1002/we.70141

Energy transition in India and the race for renewable energy to outpace fossil fuels in carbon reduction, Noor et al., Discover Sustainability Open Access 10.1007/s43621-026-04129-1

Ensemble-based projections of future climate extremes and their implications for photovoltaic power potential in China, Ma et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2026.06.011

Optimized decarbonization pathway coupled with carbon trading mechanism for China's steel industry towards carbon neutrality, Sun et al., Energy Policy 10.1016/j.enpol.2026.115428

Stakeholder perspectives on decarbonizing Thailand's power sector: A SWOT-fuzzy AHP approach towards net zero, Altaf et al., Energy Sustainable Development/Energy for sustainable development 10.1016/j.esd.2026.102084

The trade route to renewables: Import as a catalyst for the diffusion of renewable energy technology, Rabbani & Quaiyyum, Energy Policy 10.1016/j.enpol.2026.115390

Toward net-zero water systems: mechanisms and challenges in low- and middle-income Asian countries, Ahmed et al., Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability 10.1016/j.cosust.2026.101681

Urban decarbonization needs strategic reserves for critical materials, Allam et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-026-03819-y

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Critical mineral mining in the energy transition: A systematic review of environmental, social, and governance risks and opportunities, Energy Research & Social Science, 10.1016/j.erss.2024.103672 85 cites.

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Geoengineering climate

Intended and unintended consequences of atmospheric methane oxidation enhancement, Horowitz, Atmospheric chemistry and physics Open Access pdf 10.5194/acp-26-9471-2026

Ocean alkalinity enhancement reduces silica ballasting during export due to amplified dissolution, Suessle et al., Biogeosciences Open Access pdf 10.5194/bg-23-4691-2026

Reflecting on the politics and power dynamics of contested climate technologies, Fritz et al., Environmental Science & Policy 10.1016/j.envsci.2026.104448

Black carbon

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Changes in the Direct Climate Effect of Black Carbon Aerosols in East Asia Under the “Dual Carbon” Goal of China, Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres, 10.1029/2024jd040874 5 cites.

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Aerosols

Global Characterization of Stratospheric Sulfate Aerosols by the Atmospheric Chemistry Experiment (ACE), Bernath et al., Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres Open Access 10.1029/2025jd046214

Rising dust pollution across Europe in a changing climate, Vasilakos et al., Nature Open Access 10.1038/s41586-026-10743-w

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Assessment of aerosol-cloud interactions over the Northern Indian Ocean, Atmospheric Research, 10.1016/j.atmosres.2024.107601 4 cites.

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Climate change communications & cognition

As the planet heats, public doubt grows: The social structure behind rising climate change scepticism in Germany, Gies & Deutschmann, Global Environmental Change Open Access pdf 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2026.103202

Climate Change Advocacy in Libraries: Practices, Challenges and Future Research Directions, Oladokun et al., Environmental Communication 10.1080/17524032.2026.2702627

Climate change concerns and perceived intergenerational mobility, Gugushvili & Präg, Journal of Environmental Psychology Open Access 10.1016/j.jenvp.2026.103119

Climate Obstruction in the Digital Far-Right: Mapping the Climate Countermovement in German-, Danish-, and Swedish-Speaking Digital Information Environments, Henriksen et al., Environmental Communication Open Access 10.1080/17524032.2026.2701866

Confident judgments of (mis)information veracity are more, rather than less, accurate, Ak et al., PNAS Nexus Open Access 10.1093/pnasnexus/pgag186

Lagos Is Drowning: Media, Resistance, and Climate Coloniality in Flooding Narratives, Ogungbemi, Environmental Communication 10.1080/17524032.2026.2706163

Listening to climate change: sound, imagination and environmental sociology, Clark, Environmental Sociology Open Access 10.1080/23251042.2026.2704790

Mapping climate change coverage: Causes, consequences, and solutions in German news media, 2010–2024, Dablander et al., Energy Research & Social Science Open Access pdf 10.1016/j.erss.2026.104833

Medical students’ perspectives on climate change, climate-health education, and professional identity: a qualitative study, Loh et al., BMC Medical Education Open Access 10.1186/s12909-026-09775-7

Temporal horizons in US climate change news, Wozniak, Nature Climate Change 10.1038/s41558-026-02716-8

The Digital Representation of Greta Thunberg in Internet Memes: Gender, Ideology, and Digital Violence, Lucena & Colacios, Environmental Communication 10.1080/17524032.2026.2701872

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Patterns of climate-change coping among late adolescents: Differences in emotions concerning the future, moral responsibility, and climate-change engagement, Climatic Change, 10.1007/s10584-024-03778-3 19 cites.

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Agronomy, animal husbundry, food production & climate change

Paphia undulata enhances sedimentary CH4 and N2O emissions via divergent microbial mechanisms, Zhong et al., Marine Environmental Research 10.1016/j.marenvres.2026.108103

Climate stressor projections inform adaptation needs in South Asian oilseed systems, Barik et al., npj Sustainable Agriculture Open Access pdf 10.1038/s44264-026-00170-9

Crop migration is not a viable long-term strategy for mitigating climate change impacts on winter wheat production in the North China Plain, GUO et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2026.07.006

Decoding Heat Tolerance in Rice: Physiological Mechanisms, Genetic Architecture, and Breeding Innovations, Saha et al., Plant Molecular Biology Reporter 10.1007/s11105-026-01743-1

Depicting the response of crop photosynthesis to elevated CO2: the unique role of sun-induced chlorophyll fluorescence, Ye et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 10.1016/j.agrformet.2026.111211

From perception to action: attitudes and climate change adaptation practices among smallholder farmers in Nakivale refugee settlement, Mohamed et al., Frontiers in Earth Science Open Access pdf 10.3389/feart.2026.1868338

Modeling short- and long-term climatic and non-climatic drivers of wheat yield in Somalia (1986–2019): Evidence from an ARDL approach, Osman et al., PLOS Climate Open Access pdf 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000804

Regional flooding enhances N2O and CH4 emissions from agricultural fields: Evidence from a single extreme event across the North China Plain, Ge et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 10.1016/j.agrformet.2026.111284

Simulating Agroecology Policy Options for the Resilience of Smallholder Food Security to Climate Shocks, Dagunga et al., Climate Resilience and Sustainability Open Access 10.1002/cli2.70055

Sizing blue carbon risks and benefits from bivalve aquaculture, Gentry et al., npj Ocean Sustainability Open Access pdf 10.1038/s44183-026-00199-w

Tibetan Pasture Restoration Causes Additional Cooling by Reflecting Solar Radiation, Wang et al., Journal of Geophysical Research Biogeosciences 10.1029/2025jg009479

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Land use modulates resistance of grasslands against future climate and inter-annual climate variability in a large field experiment, Global Change Biology, 10.1111/gcb.17418 29 cites.

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Hydrology, hydrometeorology & climate change

Exceptionally Warm Event in the Tropical South Atlantic in 2023–24: Physical Drivers and Impacts on South American Rainfall, Hounsou-Gbo et al., Journal of Geophysical Research Oceans Open Access 10.1029/2025jc023901

North American Winter Precipitation Extremes: Changes in Variability and Driving Mechanisms in a Warming Climate, Jeong et al., Earth s Future Open Access 10.1029/2026ef008659

Precipitation Over the Contiguous United States Is Coming From Farther Away Than in the Past, Aerenson et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2026gl122565

Quantifying UK coastal flood exposure under future sea-level rise to 2300, Palmer et al., Explore Bristol Research pmh:oai:research-information.bris.ac.uk:openaire_cris_publications/62032aef-becd-4ddc-a902-ff39b2c8a275

Rethinking future flood hazard: Hourly data challenge daily flood projections in Alpine catchments, Astagneau et al., Science Advances Open Access 10.1126/sciadv.aed6012

Spatial and Temporal Patterns of Extreme Hourly Rainfall in the Hawaiian Islands, Gayte et al., International Journal of Climatology Open Access 10.1002/joc.70501

Uncertainty in California Winter Precipitation Linked to Future Projections of North Pacific Large-Scale Atmospheric Circulation, Choi et al., Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres pdf 10.1029/2025jd045669

Understanding changes in Iceland's streamflow dynamics in response to climate change, Helgason et al., Hydrology and earth system sciences Open Access 10.5194/hess-30-3979-2026

Unraveling daily dynamics of supraglacial lakes in response to hydrological pulses and anomalous climate signals, Song et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-026-75669-3

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
The increasing water stress projected for China could shift the agriculture and manufacturing industry geographically, Communications Earth & Environment, 10.1038/s43247-024-01560-y 49 cites.

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Climate change economics

Carbon pricing, economic resilience, and transport decarbonization: evidence from Finland, Msefula et al., Humanities and Social Sciences Communications Open Access 10.1057/s41599-026-08428-w

Climate-induced loss and damage in Nepal: attribution analysis and institutional readiness for international support, Dhakal et al., Frontiers in Climate Open Access pdf 10.3389/fclim.2026.1782991

How the money flows: analyzing international finance for climate change adaptation in Ethiopia, Kidane et al., Global Environmental Change Open Access pdf 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2026.103201

Inequality in flood insurance arrangements to finance flood recovery under climate change, Tesselaar & Botzen, Climate Risk Management Open Access pdf 10.1016/j.crm.2026.100850

Prioritizing the welfare of vulnerable nations promotes equitable achievement of Paris target, Biswas et al., npj Climate Action Open Access 10.1038/s44168-026-00385-z

Research on the impact of climate risk on corporate cost of debt financing, Yang et al., Frontiers in Climate Open Access 10.3389/fclim.2026.1763661

Statistical learning for climate-GDP panels: Data cleaning, flexible trend controls, and predictive validation, Schötz et al., PLOS Climate Open Access 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000962

Views of EU citizens on economic growth and implications for climate policy, Savin et al., Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-026-73323-6

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Towards a more transformative approach to climate finance, Climate Policy, 10.1080/14693062.2024.2377730 27 cites.

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Climate change mitigation public policy research

Improvement of ambient air quality and the synergistic governance of CO2 and pollutant emissions in Shenyang, Zhao et al., Scientific Reports Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41598-026-50803-9

The impact of conventional policy instruments on climate change mitigation in China, Matutinovi? & Borozan, The Anthropocene Review 10.1177/20530196261464201

Waste and CO2, an intricate relationship. Metrics, policy and technology in the climate-framing of waste, Rocher, Environmental Science & Policy 10.1016/j.envsci.2026.104443

“Mitigation + adaptation” climate policy synergy and urban ecological resilience: Evidence from China, Zhang & Dou, Urban Climate 10.1016/j.uclim.2026.103046

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Power supply disruptions deter electric vehicle adoption in cities in China, Nature Communications, 10.1038/s41467-024-50447-1 53 cites.

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Climate change adaptation & adaptation public policy research

A battleground of climate change: Summer air temperatures in social housing, Pfautsch et al., Urban Climate Open Access 10.1016/j.uclim.2026.103051

Assessing the vulnerability of livelihoods and ecosystems during the KwaZulu-Natal floods and their implications for climate resilience, Anekwe, Climate and Development Open Access 10.1080/17565529.2026.2696367

Economic optimization of climate adaptation for water security: an integrated water–energy nexus risk assessment framework, Ran et al., Frontiers in Environmental Science Open Access pdf 10.3389/fenvs.2026.1817765

Inequality in human development amplifies climate-related disaster risk, Teber et al., Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-026-73873-9

Instrumentalizing ‘uninhabitability’ at a time of climate change: the case of Barbuda after Hurricane Irma, ???????? et al., Climate and Development 10.1080/17565529.2026.2696370

Maladaptation can contribute to aggregated, amplified, compounded, and cascading climate risks, Shah, Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability 10.1016/j.cosust.2026.101689

Producing resilience: governance, social relations, and climate risk in coastal communities, Nurhayati et al., Environmental Sociology 10.1080/23251042.2026.2699296

Promises and pitfalls of climate adaptation tools across the Mediterranean, Koutroulis et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-026-03795-3

Rethinking urban climate adaptation: A degrowth perspective for policy and practice, Acuña & Fernández-Baldor, Environmental Science & Policy Open Access pdf 10.1016/j.envsci.2026.104445

The Destination Earth digital twin for climate change adaptation, Doblas-Reyes et al., Geoscientific model development Open Access 10.5194/gmd-19-2821-2026

The national knowledge politics of monitoring and evaluating adaptation to climate change: processes of repair, theatrical performance and legitimacy, Adhikari & Fisher, Environmental Politics Open Access pdf 10.1080/09644016.2026.2700733

Women and climate adaptation in South Africa: a gender-responsive policy review, Baloyi et al., Frontiers in Climate Open Access pdf 10.3389/fclim.2026.1821218

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Weaving scientific and local knowledge on climate change impacts in coastal Kenya, Western Indian Ocean, Environmental Science & Policy, 10.1016/j.envsci.2024.103846 10 cites.

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Climate change impacts on human health

Assessing and Refining the Heat Index for Subdaily Heat Conditions, Liu, Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology 10.1175/jamc-d-25-0250.1

Climate change, hygiene, and health: A research roadmap for climate adaptation, Gerard et al., PLOS Climate Open Access 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000907

Environmental suitability of Coccidioides in the USA under climate change scenarios: a modelling study, Deshpande et al., The Lancet Planetary Health Open Access 10.1016/j.lanplh.2026.101481

Feeling the heat: Socio-spatial inequalities in indoor overheating and heat adaptation in Greater London, Assan, Energy Research & Social Science Open Access pdf 10.1016/j.erss.2026.104868

Global climate risks for outdoor sports under CMIP6 scenarios: A multi-indicator assessment based on WBGT, Heat Index, heavy rainfall, and heatwaves, Defrance & Lescure, PLOS Climate Open Access pdf 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000969

Local drivers in accelerating North American heat stress, Prein et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-026-72795-w

Mental health experiences amid climate change and sexual and reproductive health challenges: A scoping review focused on low-and middle-income countries, Vahedi et al., PLOS Climate Open Access 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000984

Recognizing the human health impacts of marine heatwaves, Falkenberg & Russell, Nature Sustainability 10.1038/s41893-026-01892-x

The science of climate heat risks has a metric problem, Jay & Jahan, Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-026-03804-5

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Indoor overheating: A review of vulnerabilities, causes, and strategies to prevent adverse human health outcomes during extreme heat events, Temperature, 10.1080/23328940.2024.2361223 87 cites.

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Climate change & geopolitics

Critical misalignments in climate pledges reveal imbalanced sustainable development pathways, Larosa et al., Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-026-73564-5

Defragmenting Mangrove Law Towards Coherent Global Governance, Lorber & Cappa, Ecology and Evolution Open Access 10.1002/ece3.73721

Other

AI-assisted longitudinal comparison of scenario knowledge representation in IPCC synthesis reports, Warin & Bisson, PLOS Climate Open Access pdf 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000965

Co-Producing Climate Services for California's Energy Sector, Freitas et al., Earth s Future Open Access 10.1029/2025ef005959

Extreme Weather in the Southern Hemisphere in Early 2022, Vries et al., Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society Open Access 10.1175/bams-d-23-0141.1

From continental to street scales: climate change impacts on atmospheric composition over Europe and London, Doherty et al., Atmospheric chemistry and physics Open Access pdf 10.5194/acp-26-10115-2026

Mercury mobilization and export from the Greenland Ice Sheet using an ice-to-ocean approach, Youssef et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-026-03818-z

Modelling the anthropocene: A brief and partial history, Turnbull, The Anthropocene Review Open Access 10.1177/20530196261472817

Resource consumption in global concrete production, Kane et al., Nature Sustainability 10.1038/s41893-026-01858-z

The true impacts of the built environment, [authors did not process], Nature Sustainability 10.1038/s41893-026-01910-y

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
How Has the Ferrel Cell Contributed to the Maintenance of Antarctic Sea Ice at Low Levels From 2016 to 2022?, Geophysical Research Letters, 10.1029/2024gl108801 2 cites.

buffer/OTHR

Informed opinion, nudges & major initiatives

Missing Western Pacific moorings threaten weather and climate forecasting and research, Cravatte et al., Frontiers in Climate Open Access 10.3389/fclim.2026.1861050

U.S. researchers express outrage over proposed changes to managing federal grants, Mervis, Science 10.1126/science.aek5959

‘Climate free fall’: why the biggest risk to our economies is yet to be recognized, Levermann, Nature Open Access pdf 10.1038/d41586-026-02154-8

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Science-based targets miss the mark, Communications Earth & Environment, 10.1038/s43247-024-01535-z 30 cites.

buffer/IOPN Articles/Reports from Agencies and Non-Governmental Organizations Addressing Aspects of Climate Change

Early Warnings: Government Knowledge of Climate Change and Legal Responsibility for Climate Harm, Lindsay Fenlock and Nikki Reisch, Center for International Environmental Law

The authors examine publicly available government records, scientific evidence, and historical archives to document when major emitting States became aware of the causes and foreseeable consequences of climate change. They demonstrate that many governments understood the risks decades earlier than they have claimed, strengthening the evidentiary foundation for climate litigation, human rights, and climate advocacy, and the implementation of the International Court of Justice climate advisory opinion. By tracing the history of government knowledge, the report provides a critical resource for advancing climate accountability and ensuring that high-emitting States are held responsible for failing to prevent the climate crisis.

Bait and Switch. The Impacts of Trump Administration Policies at the Intersection of Clean Energy, Manufacturing, and Labor, BlueGreen Alliance

The authors found that largely due to the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA), 223 manufacturing, clean energy, and industrial projects are already facing cancellations and delays representing at least $82.8 billion in capital investment which could cost 111,765 jobs. Additionally, more than 3,034 manufacturing, clean energy, and industrial sites face tax restrictions due to OBBBA, putting at risk $695.2 billion in capital investment and 1,184,996 jobs.

Attribution of Extreme Weather and Climate Events and Their Impacts, National Research Council, The National Academies Press

Decades of data and research indicate that human-caused climate change is altering the frequency and intensity of several types of extreme events, such as heat waves and extreme rainfall events. Even as those trends become clearer, extreme event attribution (EEA) seeks to assess the degree to which climate change contributed to any specific event. EEA studies provide information that can be useful for public understanding, planning and risk management, policy and legal contexts, and scientific research. The authors evaluate the state of EEA science, updating a National Academies report published in 2016. The authors also assess the emerging field of extreme event impact attribution (EEIA). The number of EEA studies has grown substantially over the past decade as scientific tools, observational datasets, and methods have advanced, enabling attribution studies to be completed within days of an event. However, challenges remain, including limited model capabilities for small-scale regional events, representation of key atmospheric processes, and attribution of compounding, cascading, and record-breaking events. The authors examine these advances and remaining challenges and provide recommendations for strengthening attribution science, improving collaboration with local experts and stakeholders, and advancing research, data, and modeling capabilities worldwide.

Military Escalation in the Middle East: Cushioning the Global Shock, Molina et al., United Nations Development Program

The economic, fiscal and social impacts of the recent Middle East military escalation are expected to persist despite the June 18 Memorandum of Understanding between Iran and the United States. Since April, many developing economies have sought to shield households and businesses from rising energy costs through subsidies, price caps, tax reductions and demand-management measures. While these policies have softened the immediate affect of higher prices, they have come at a significant fiscal cost. Without such interventions, poverty is projected to increase substantially. Under an adverse global growth scenario, an additional 17 million people could fall into poverty by upper-middle-income standards, rising to 45 million under a severe scenario. Global fossil fuel subsidies are projected to exceed $1 trillion in 2026 and could reach $1.43 trillion if oil prices rise to $110 per barrel. The effects of the shock differ across regions. Remittances have helped cushion affects in South Asia, fertilizer disruptions risk worsening food insecurity in Africa, and energy subsidies in East Asia have contained inflation while increasing fiscal exposure. These pressures come at a time when nearly half of the world’s poorest countries are already in or at high risk of debt distress. As debt service costs continue to rise and fiscal buffers are exhausted, many governments are being forced to divert resources away from health, education and infrastructure. Sustained multilateral support will be essential to help vulnerable countries manage the crisis and protect development gains.

Disproportionate Regulation of Residential Plug-in Solar, Stephen Smith and Amanda Arthur, Southern Alliance for Clean Energy

The authors examine the scientific and regulatory basis for the differential treatment of residential plug-in solar photovoltaic (PIPV) units and portable gas/diesel generators with respect to line-worker safety. The authors use documented fatality records from the Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA) and the National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health (NIOSH), peer-reviewed electrical injury science, utility industry safety publications, applicable federal inverter safety standards, a U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) funded national laboratory barrier analysis, and the emerging bipartisan legislative consensus in multiple states. They noted that A DOE-funded Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory study (2025) systematically catalogued the technical, interconnection, and regulatory barriers to plug-in solar adoption in the United States, confirming that interconnection requirements—not technical safety limitations—are the primary barrier to deployment.

Washington State Climate Action Plan, Washington State Departments of Commerce and Ecology

Washington already has a strong set of policies to advance climate action. However, the state can and must do more The Comprehensive Climate Action Plan (CCAP) is designed to meet this need and be a far-reaching, implementable, equitable, and thorough roadmap to ensure a sustainable future for the state. The CCAP identifies opportunities across all sectors of the economy to further reduce emissions and provide direct benefits to communities and businesses such as cleaner air, healthier communities, boosting the economy, and protecting vulnerable populations.

Retail Electricity Price Trends and Drivers: Data Update−2026 Edition, Wiser et al., Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory

Prices largely tacked inflation; all-sector average prices are only up 3% since 2019 in real dollars. Real prices are down in 29 states; A majority of states saw a decline in inflation-adjusted prices (2019-2025). Electricity burdens are lower that in 2019 in most regions; total bills as a fraction of income are near all-time lows.

The 2025 small island developing states report of the Lancet Countdown on health and climate change: building resilience in the face of rising heat, Gordon-Strachan et al., The Lancet Global Health

In this second iteration of the Small Island Developing States (SIDS) report, the authors present the findings of 28 indicators from five thematic areas: health hazards, exposures, and impacts; adaptation, planning, and resilience for health; mitigation actions and health co-benefits; economics and finance; and public and political engagement in health and climate change. General statements about SIDS were only made for indicators with data coverage of at least 70%, with the number of SIDS with available indicator data explicitly stated when this threshold was not met. The 2025 report includes a dedicated chapter on financing with a deep dive into international climate financing for SIDS.

A Majority of Voters Support Worker Protections Against Extreme Heat, Ayseli Karabekmez, Data for Progress

Rising global temperatures are causing more frequent and severe extreme heat, droughts, and flooding across the United States. Last week, a dangerous heat wave with temperatures of 103–105 degrees Fahrenheit prompted heat alerts across multiple states. As climate-driven extreme weather events become more common, a majority of Americans are connecting the dots between climate change and extreme weather like heat waves. Recent polling finds that a majority of voters (61%) believe that extreme weather events — like hurricanes, flash floods, droughts, and heat waves — have become more frequent over the past five years. This includes majorities of Democrats (72%) and Independents (63%). Republicans are more divided, with a plurality (46%) saying extreme weather events have become more frequent, and 42% saying the frequency has stayed the same. Perceptions of extreme weather also vary by age. Half of voters under 45 (50%) believe the number of extreme weather events has increased over the past five years, compared with 66% of voters over 45 – a 16-point difference.

Heat, health and increasing cost of living. A call for action, Mathilde Wilkens and Dennis Tänzler, Adelphi Global

The authors recommend embedding heat-health effects into UNFCCC processes, including the Global Goal on Adaptation indicators and the Belem Health Action Plan (BHAP); linking national adaptation plans to concrete social protection measures, including compensation for lost working time and state-supported insurance schemes; extending formal labor protections to cover heat-related losses, particularly for informal workers, and addressing the gender dimensions of heat vulnerability; and mobilizing adaptation finance specifically for health, with clear guidance on how funding can be deployed to protect living standards.

Grid Action Report – July 4th Heat Wave. How clean energy provides cost savings and boosts grid reliability during extreme heat, Will Taylor and Jamie Dickerson, Acadia Center

The authors provide a response to recent extreme weather events affecting energy systems and consumers in the Northeast. The region’s experience with last week’s heatwave again points to the power of a portfolio approach to deliver savings and resource adequacy: a combination of clean energy resources helped the region ride through a period of significant grid stress – periods which will only increase in frequency, duration, and cost under a changing climate. This portfolio of resources – including solar, energy efficiency, demand response, battery storage, interregional transmission, and on/offshore wind – will serve as the foundation for a less volatile, more affordable, and more secure energy system. For example, distributed solar drives major savings during heat wave. The authors estimate 6+ gigawatts (GW) of distributed solar saved New England ratepayers $130-149 million in wholesale electricity (energy) costs during the week of June 28 through July 4, 2026. Distributed solar output exceeded 25% of all demand on the grid at times and contributed more to the grid mix than the region’s nuclear fleet between 2PM and 7PM on the peak heatwave day of July 2.

Modernizing New Jersey’s Electric Utility Business Model, Patel et al., New Jersey Board of Public Utilities

Electricity bills in New Jersey have risen faster than most household essentials, which makes affordability the central concern of this study. Most of a typical bill (supply and transmission) is set in federal and regional markets with limited ability at the state level to influence those costs. Utility business-model reform that is regulated at the state level can act mainly on the distribution and programmatic portion of the bill, roughly a quarter of the bill, though some reforms may indirectly lower exposure to supply and transmission costs. The jurisdictional review and evidence show that no single reform or modernization option is a silver bullet. The most reliable near-term gains could come from “cost-discipline” measures available under existing state authority. More ambitious financing, incentive, and performance-based reforms could follow as data, baselines, and customer protections mature.

China's wind and solar mega-bases face a coal test, Yu et al., GEM

China is building more wind and utility-scale solar than the rest of the world combined, concentrated in northwestern and northern regions. Over 500 gigawatts (GW) of China's vast 1,360 GW of prospective utility-scale solar and wind capacity is already under construction. Six provinces and autonomous regions — Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia, Gansu, Qinghai, Ningxia, and Shaanxi — hold 714 GW, or more than half of China’s prospective wind and utility-scale solar pipeline. China’s wind and solar deployment has moved from an installation race to a system-integration test. China’s wind and solar mega-bases constitute the largest renewable-energy deployment project in the world, but grid bottlenecks and electricity market arrangements that limit system flexibility are preventing that capacity from being fully used. The result is rising curtailment: wind and solar output that could have been generated under prevailing weather conditions, but was instead reduced or withheld. The question is no longer whether China can build renewable capacity at scale, but whether it can transmit, store, price, and consume that power in ways that reduce coal use.

The Fraud of “Clean” Natural Gas. How Big Oil and Gas Created the Myth that Natural Gas is a Climate Solution, John et al., The Center for Climate Integrity

For decades, the oil and gas industry has perpetuated the fraud that natural gas is clean and a climate solution, despite knowing that it is a significant source of air pollution and a major contributor to climate change. The gas industry knew as early as 1907 that natural gas was a source of respiratory problems when burned indoors, and by the 1950s it knew that gas caused problems in outdoor air. Beginning in the 1960s, the oil and gas industry learned of another threat — emerging science showed that natural gas was a potentially significant contributor to methane in the atmosphere. As companies and their representatives closely monitored scientific developments on methane, the chemical name for natural gas, they also learned that it was a potent greenhouse gas and damaging for the climate, About New Research

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This is a re-post from The Climate Brink

Over the past week smoke from Canadian wildfires has once again poured into cities across Canada and the northern US. Toronto briefly had the worst air quality of any major city on Earth, Thunder Bay’s readings went off the top of Canada’s air quality health index scale, and unhealthy air alerts stretched from Minneapolis to New York City.

This smoke-pocalypse has renewed a long-standing debate online that these fires aren’t really about climate change at all, but about forest mismanagement. Decades of aggressive fire suppression, the argument goes, have let fuel pile up. We don’t log enough, thin enough, or do enough prescribed burning The forests are overgrown tinderboxes and we have only ourselves to blame. Climate is a distraction from a problem we created by listening to Smokey Bear’s insidious propaganda.

I want to take this argument seriously, because it has a real kernel of truth. The fire-deficit story is a genuine phenomenon in the dry conifer forests of the western United States. But most of what’s burning in Canada is boreal forest, and the boreal is a fundamentally different beast. So in this piece I’ll try to explain why the management argument, largely valid in a California pine stand, mostly falls apart when you move it a couple of thousand kilometers north, and explore what the fire data actually shows.

Here’s the short version. Canada’s area burned has surged, and it has surged in step with warming: hot, dry fire seasons burn far more forest, with area burned rises roughly 80% for each 1C increase in fire-season temperature (with a correlation coefficient of 0.61). This relationship is robust to a variety of statistical tests and controlling for confounding variables. The boreal burns in rare, high-intensity crown fires on a natural cycle measured in a century or more, across enormous remote areas that have never been logged, thinned, or effectively suppressed. Only about a fifth of Canada’s burned area over the past four decades was even inside forest regions that have ever been actively managed. You cannot have a fuel-buildup from forest mismanagement in a forest you were never managing.

Forest mis-management?

The forest-mismanagement argument was, in fairness, based on real evidence from some regions. In the frequent-fire dry forests of the western US that are dominated by ponderosa pine and mixed conifers the natural fire regime is low-to-moderate intensity surface fire returning every 5 to 30 years, historically stoked in part by Indigenous burning. A century of fire exclusion in those forests really did remove that frequent fire, let stands grow denser and more continuous, and build up a “fire deficit” that raises the odds of severe fire (Hagmann et al. 2021). And in that setting, fuel treatments work: Prichard et al. (2021) find wide agreement that mechanical thinning combined with prescribed burning measurably reduces subsequent fire severity. If you’re arguing about the Sierra Nevada, the management story is as important if not more important than the climate one.

The problem is that the Canadian boreal is not the Sierra Nevada. It burns in infrequent, high-intensity, stand-replacing crown fires that kill the whole stand on natural fire cycles measured in many decades to centuries (commonly a century or more, and two centuries or longer in the east), not 5 to 30 years. It is, ecologically speaking, supposed to burn this way; black spruce is practically built for it. Fire in this system was never the gentle recurring ground-clearing that suppression interrupted in California. And the burning is astonishingly concentrated: across the boreal, something like 3% of fires account for about 97% of the area burned. This is not a landscape full of many small fires that “used to clean out the fuel.” Rather, its a landscape that waits, and then burns catastrophically under extreme weather.

Why do we know that Canadian boreal forest fires are not being driven by mismanagement?

First, and most importantly, most of the boreal was never being managed in the first place. As University of Alberta fire scientist Jen Beverly has pointed out, only about one-fifth of Canada’s total burned area from 1986 to 2023 occurred within long-term forest tenure (the land that’s actually logged and managed). The vast majority burns in remote forest with no timber operations. In Canada’s so-called “extensive” fire-management zones there has been no serious suppression efforts historically. Fires there are monitored and largely left to burn unless they threaten people or infrastructure. You can’t blame overgrown, over-suppressed forests for fires in places nobody was suppressing.

Second, the fuel-buildup mechanism doesn’t fit the recent fires. If decades of suppression had loaded the forest with excess old fuel, you’d expect the big fire years to preferentially consume the oldest, most fuel-laden stands. But in Alberta’s brutal 2023 season, fires burned stands of essentially all ages in proportion to how much of each was on the landscape. That’s the signature of fire driven by weather, which doesn’t care how old the trees are, not by fuel accumulation.

Third, the proposed fixes don’t scale to the boreal even if you wanted them. This is the conclusion of the very scientists who documented Canada’s fire deficit. Coogan, Parisien and colleagues (2020) state it flatly: mechanical fuel treatments “require continued maintenance over time, are too expensive to apply across large boreal landscapes, and are usually not designed to halt extreme wildfires.” The boreal is on the order of three million square kilometers. You are not going to thin or prescribe-burn your way across it, and the crown fires that produce the smoke wouldn’t stop at a fuel break anyway.

So if it’s not mismanagement, what is it? Let’s look at the data.

The Canadian fire record

To start with, here is the long-term record of area burned, combing the satellite-mapped NBAC composite from 1972 on with the less-complete point-based records before that shown in grey (note that this is primarily for illustration; I don’t compute any statistics across the 1972 splice to avoid potential bias from changing measurement approaches).

Annual forest area burned in Canada, 1959–2026. Grey bars show the point-based record (1959–1971); red bars the NBAC satellite composite (1972–2025); the hatched bar is 2026 through mid-July (CIFFC, preliminary). Data: NRCan CNFDB/NBAC; CIFFC.

2023 stands out like a sore thumb with 14.8 million hectares in the satellite-mapped data (Canadian agency tallies actually run higher at 17–18 Mha as different products count differently),1 roughly 2.5 times the previous record. 2025 came in second at ~7.3 Mha in the satellite data. And 2026 so far is about 2.8 Mha by mid-July, a bit above the typical pace for this date, but far below the last few extreme years.

One caveat around how unprecedented this actually is. A recent tree-ring reconstruction back to 1800 (Danneyrolles et al. 2025) found that while 2023 itself was off the charts in most regions they studied, the decadal burn rate for 2014–2023 still sits within the range of the past two centuries in several zones, especially in the eastern boreal. We are not necessarily seeing more fire than ever everywhere, but rather a rapid rate of increase with the increasing prevalence of fire weather driving it. In addition, parts of the northwestern boreal are now burning at rates that do appear to exceed anything in thousands of years.

One important driver: higher temperatures Change in fire-season (May–September) mean temperature, 1959 to 2025, computed as a per-gridcell LOWESS trend. Canada-wide mean change is +2.2C, exceeding +3C in parts of the high Arctic. Data: ERA5-Land (ECMWF/Copernicus) via Google Earth Engine.

Canadian fire seasons (May through September) have warmed about 2.2C on average since 1959. Canada warms at roughly twice the global rate, and its north at roughly three times. That warming matters for fire through a well-understood mechanism: warmer air is exponentially “thirstier” (saturation vapor pressure rises ~7% per degree), so it pulls moisture out of live vegetation and dead fuels alike, priming the landscape to burn. It’s the same fuel-drying pathway that Abatzoglou and Williams (2016) found had roughly doubled cumulative forest area burned in the western US.

Hanes et al. (2019), examining the Canadian record from 1959 to 2015, found fire seasons starting earlier and ending later, more days with conditions suitable for fire spread, and increases in both annual area burned and the frequency of large fires. They found that these trends were consistent with human-caused warming, not with changes in forest management (which have been broadly stable since the 1980s even as the fire seasons have gotten dramatically worse).

Hot and dry years burn

A few years ago my Berkeley Earth colleague Robert Rohde made a lovely figure plotting each California fire season by its temperature and precipitation. Here is my Canadian version: every year from 1959 to 2025 placed in climate space, with dot size proportional to national area burned and the ten largest fire years outlined in black.

Each dot is one year (1959–2025), positioned by its fire-season (May–Sep) mean temperature and total precipitation averaged over burnable land, sized by national area burned (NBAC). Adapted from Robert Rohde’s California fire season weather chart. Data: ERA5-Land; NRCan CNFDB/NBAC.

The pattern is hard to miss. The biggest fire years pile up in the hot-and-dry corner with 2023 really standing out, and the recent era (red dots, 2011–2025) has shifted visibly toward that corner relative to the black dots of the 1960s. Canada’s fire seasons are migrating into the part of weather-space where the big burns happen.

We can also try and more directly quantify the relationship between area burned and temperature. Nationally, fire-season temperature correlates with log area burned at r = 0.61 (1972–2025), which means that a fire season 1C warmer sees ~80% more area burned. I want to be careful about what this does and doesn’t show, so I stress-tested it: the correlation survives detrending (r = 0.57), first-differencing (r = 0.46), and partialling out precipitation (r = 0.58). It isn’t just two things drifting upward together, and it isn’t a rebranded precipitation effect.2

Correlation of fire-season mean temperature with log annual area burned by province/territory, 1972–2025, with 95% moving-block bootstrap intervals. Red dots are significant after false-discovery-rate correction. Data: NRCan CNFDB/NBAC; ERA5-Land.

The relationship is strongest in the western and northern boreal – Yukon, BC, the Northwest Territories, the Prairie provinces, Ontario – and weak to non-significant in Nunavet, Quebec, Newfoundland, and New Brunswick, matching the literature’s finding that eastern boreal fire is generally less temperature-limited.

Lightning in the middle of nowhere Cumulative area burned by ignition cause, 1990–2023. Data: National Forestry Database (agency-reported).

About 71% of Canada’s area burned over 1990–2023 came from lightning-ignited fires, and in the record 2023 season it was ~93%. These are remote boreal megafires, ignited by lightning far from any road, timber lease, or fuel-treatment crew. This is worth considering in the context of the management debate: the fires driving the smoke are not escaped campfires or mismanaged plantations. They are lightning strikes into a drying landscape, often burning in exactly the places no one was managing. And because warming is expected to increase high-latitude lightning, climate change can contribute to both the fuel dryness and the ignition side of the equation.

What attribution science actually says

This week the National Academies released a major report on the attribution of extreme weather events and their impacts, updating their influential 2016 assessment. Its wildfire findings are careful, and they land almost exactly on the distinction I’ve been trying to make in this piece.

On the general question, the report concludes it is very likely that climate change has increased the likelihood and severity of extreme fire weather: the hot, dry, windy conditions that let fires ignite and spread. At the same time it assigns low confidence to attributing any specific individual wildfire, because fires are irreducibly multivariate: ignition, fuels, land management, and suppression all mediate the on-the-ground relationship between fire weather and hectares burned. Notably, the report also flags that no attribution study has yet isolated the role of fuel or ignition changes, precisely because those human factors are so entangled. The science is much stronger on “climate change made conditions like these more likely” than on “climate change, specifically, caused this fire.”

For Canada’s exceptional 2023 fire year the evidence is unusually strong, and the report devotes a whole box to it. Kirchmeier-Young et al. (2024) found the record burned area was 2–5 times more likely thanks to human influence in Canada’s eastern and western ecozones, and the extraordinarily long fire season more than 5 times more likely. World Weather Attribution found the cumulative fire-weather severity at least 7 times more likely and ~50% more intense. Jones et al. (2024) put the fire-weather likelihood increase at ~2.9–3.6x and burned area ~10% higher (95% CI: 3-40%) than without warming. And Barnes et al. (2025) found the James Bay severity rating at least 32% more intense, while noting the season was amplified by an extreme run of atmospheric blocking (~50 blocking days versus an average of 15), a reminder that in any single year the weather still matter enormously.

Where management does matter

The prior sections are about the physical science of what’s driving the fire trend. What we should do about it is a policy question, and here the management crowd is not wrong so much as aiming at the wrong target.

There genuinely is a fire deficit in parts of boreal Canada — but it’s local, and it’s about people, not country or regional fire totals. Parisien, Coogan and colleagues (2020) found that of 160 boreal communities they studied, 54% were surrounded by less recently-burned forest than their fire regime would predict reflecting a suppression legacy that leaves older, more flammable forest ringing towns. This is a place where thinning, fuel breaks, and prescribed burning could genuinely help.

Fuel management is valuable around communities, but is essentially useless across the remote boreal. But in Canada it does not explain and cannot reverse the rise in area burned that’s filling the sky with smoke. Treating the wildland-urban interface and cutting the emissions that are drying the forest should be seen as complementary rather than as competitors.

Why the smokey skies

One last point on the thing thats actually dominating the news a the moment. Even a year like 2026 that appears not to be headed for a top-5 record for area burned in Canada can still have catastrophic air pollution impacts.

Large-fire footprints (≥200 ha) across Canada, 2015–2024 (grey, ~39 Mha total), with the 878 fires still active as of 17 July 2026 (red, sized by area). Data: NRCan CNFDB large-fire polygons; CIFFC year-to-date feed.

Whether a given city chokes on smoke depends on where fires burn, how high their plumes loft, which way the wind blows, and how many people live downwind, not on total hectares burned nationwide. This July, fires across northwestern Ontario, the Prairies, and Quebec have sat upwind of the Great Lakes population corridor under a persistent transporting flow. A modest fire season in the wrong place can choke tens of millions, while a record season in the remote north can have much smaller impacts on populated regions. While overall area burned is the climate-linked trend, who breathes the smoke on a given week in July is mostly driven by the weather.

A few takeaways

So what are the takeaways here?

First, the forest-mismanagement explanation is borrowed from the wrong forest. Its a real problem in the frequent-fire dry forests of the western US, but the Canadian boreal is a rare-crown-fire system, mostly unmanaged and unsuppressed, where only about a fifth of the burned area is even on managed land and where the fire scientists themselves say landscape-scale fuel treatments can’t scale or stop the megafires.

Second, the surge in Canadian burning tracks temperature with striking consistency, and hotter, drier fire seasons burn far more forest (+80% per 1C), the biggest fire years are almost universally hotter and drier, over 90% of the record 2023 burn was remote lightning fire, and the attribution studies tie these extremes to a warmer atmosphere without needing to invoke forest management at all.

And third, where management does matter like for the forests ringing communities it’s a genuine and worthy fix. But here it just protects towns; it doesn’t solve the underlying factors driving area burned or wildfire smoke pollution.

So next time someone tells you Canada’s fires can be solved by raking the forests, you can point out that the thing filling their sky with smoke is a lightning-struck, drought-primed boreal forest doing what a warming climate is making it do more and more often.

In case its helpful, I’ve put the code and data to reproduce this analysis on my GitHub here.

1 Burned-area products genuinely differ: the National Burned Area Composite (NBAC) maps fire perimeters from satellite imagery and is more conservative, while agency/CIFFC tallies are reported figures with different cutoff dates (2023 is 14.8 Mha in NBAC vs ~17–18 Mha in agency totals). I use NBAC as the primary series and avoid computing statistics across the 1972 data-source splice; the 2026 number is a preliminary CIFFC year-to-date figure.

2 The gory methodological details: correlations use the homogeneous NBAC record (1972–2025), with effective sample sizes adjusted for autocorrelation (Bretherton et al. 1999), 95% moving-block bootstrap confidence intervals, and Benjamini–Hochberg false-discovery-rate control across jurisdictions. The national relationship also holds when refit excluding 2023 and 2025 (r = 0.52), so it is not an artifact of the two recent extreme years. Temperature and precipitation are area-weighted over each jurisdiction’s forested/woody land (MODIS IGBP classes 1–9) from ERA5-Land. Fire-season precipitation correlates with area burned at r = −0.49.

This is a re-post from Yale Climate Connections by Jeff Masters

As climate change bakes forests across North America, dense smoke from dozens of out-of-control wildfires burning in northern Minnesota and adjacent portions of Ontario is blanketing tens of millions of people with hazardous pollution.

The fires are bringing the worst air quality on record to much of the Great Lakes, mid-Atlantic, and Northeast United States. Pollution from small particles called PM2.5 — the fine particles less than 2.5 microns in diameter are the primary air pollution killers — has been far into the “Hazardous” range across five states since Wednesday morning.

The award for worst air in the nation on July 16 went to the city that has in the past billed itself as a climate haven: Duluth, Minnesota. The city’s 24-hour air quality index, or AQI, for PM2.5 particle pollution hit 934, over three times the threshold for “Hazardous” pollution. This shattered Duluth’s previous all-time AQI record of 159 set July 20, 2021. EPA pollution records go back to 1999.

The award for worst air in the nation on July 16 went to the city that has in the past billed itself as a climate haven: Duluth, Minnesota. The city’s 24-hour air quality index, or AQI, for PM2.5 particle pollution hit 934, over three times the threshold for “Hazardous” pollution. This shattered Duluth’s previous all-time AQI record of 159 set July 20, 2021. EPA PM 2.5 pollution records go back to 1999.

Record 24-hr PM 2.5 air quality on July 16, 2026

Duluth, MN: 934 AQI for PM2.5 (Old record: 159, July 20, 2021)
Toledo, OH (5 monitors): 624 (Old record: 190, June 28, 2023)
Chicago. IL (42 monitors): 511 (Old record: 246, June 28, 2023)
Detroit, MI: 490 (Old record: 226, June 28, 2023)
Cleveland, OH: 297 (Old record: 285, June 28, 2023)
Milwaukee, WI: 414 (Old record: 270, June 27, 2023)
Flint, MI: 343 (Old record: 178, June 27, 2023)
Minneapolis, MN (39 monitors): 251 (Old record: 193, July 29, 2021)
Green Bay, WI (5 monitors): 372 (Old record: 179, June 29, 2023)
Grand Rapids, MI (4 monitors): 482 (Old record: 227, June 27, 2023)
Lansing, MI (2 monitors): 408 (Old record: 194, June 29, 2023)
Buffalo, NY (11 monitors): 206 (Old Record: 176, June 7, 2023)

Record 24-hr PM 2.5 air quality on July 17, 2026

Washington D.C. (21 monitors): 246 AQI at Ashburn, VA, and 234 at Springfield, VA (Old record: 222, June 8, 2023, at Franconia Park, VA)
Pittsburg, PA (25 monitors): 261 (Old record: 237, June 29, 2023)
Dover, DE (2 monitors): 223 (Old record: 207, June 8, 2023)
Columbus, OH (8 monitors): 272 (Old record: 210, June 28, 2023)

Because of the huge number of people affected, and since this is occurring at the same time as a severe humid heat wave, this extreme and widespread pollution event — which will be followed by many months of repeated wildfire smoke incursion into the U.S. — will undoubtedly cause hundreds and perhaps thousands of premature deaths. The only comparable wildfire smoke event affecting this portion of North America occurred in 2023; a 2025 study blamed that event for 33,000 premature deaths in the United States, 8,300 in Canada, and 23,000 in Europe. According to the EPA, a premature air pollution death is one that occurs on average 14 years before a person would have otherwise died.

The climate change connection to the wildfires

As the climate warms, fire danger increases, mostly because the atmosphere gets “thirstier” – more water vapor can evaporate into warmer air. This results in more water vapor evaporating from plants, which dries them out and creates an increased risk of large and intense fires that can generate huge smoke plumes. Most of the fires grew out of control under extreme heat conditions made up to five times more likely by climate change (Fig. 1). According to Climate Central, the heat that helped fuel these fires would have been “highly unlikely” to have occurred in a world without climate change.

Figure 1. Climate Shift Index for Monday, July 13, 2026, showing the factor increase in high temperatures because of human-caused climate change. (Image credit: Climate Central)

Five states recorded “Hazardous” air quality on Thursday

On Thursday, July 16, portions of Ontario and five states — Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, Illinois, and Ohio — experienced 24-hour levels of PM2.5 with an air quality index in the “Hazardous” (brown) range. According to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, these conditions necessitate health warnings of emergency conditions, with the entire population more likely to be affected. Purple “Very Unhealthy” air was observed in three other states — New York, Pennsylvania, and Indiana. This level of pollution triggers a health alert, and everyone – not just people with vulnerabilities – may experience more serious health effects.

Figure 2. Observed 24-hour air quality index (AQI) for PM2.5 pollution for Jul. 16, 2026. Fifty monitors in five states had “Hazardous” air, plus an additional nine monitors in Ontario. (Image credit: EPA)

According to air pollution scientist Ryan Stauffer, yesterday’s air pollution event blows away the previous most extreme wildfire smoke event in this region — in June 2023 — for extremity. During the 2023 event, only about three EPA monitors, all in Pennsylvania, recorded a 24-hour AQI in the hazardous range. But on Thursday, 50 official EPA monitors recorded a 24-hour AQI in the “Hazardous” range (Fig. 2), plus an additional nine monitors in Ontario. According to rankings at iqair.com, Detroit was the most polluted major city worldwide for most of Thursday, with Chicago bumping Detroit out on Thursday night. On Friday morning, the top five most polluted cities in the world were all in North America: Detroit, Chicago, Washington D.C., Toronto, and New York City.

On an hourly scale, some truly extreme AQI readings above 1,000 were recorded Thursday in Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Michigan. The “Hazardous” (brown) range is for an AQI in above 300, so these readings were more than three times beyond the “Hazardous” threshold. The most extreme readings occurred in northern Minnesota downwind of the fires burning in the Boundary Waters park, where an AQI of 3,567 was measured by a purpleair.com sensor.

How the trouble started: record heat and a record-strong high-pressure system

The wildfire event began on Monday, when the strongest upper-level ridge of high pressure ever observed in the north-central U.S. baked the region. All-time record heat exceeding 100 degrees Fahrenheit (37.8°C) was observed, worsening existing moderate to severe drought conditions. Thunder Bay, Ontario, on the north shore of frigid Lake Superior, hit 39.5 degrees Celsius (103.1°F), smashing its all-time heat record by over 2°C. To the north, Armstrong hit 40.7°C (105.3°F), the hottest temperature observed in all of Ontario since the great Dust Bowl heat wave of July 1936.

Strong winds moved in with the heat, fanning multiple wildfires that feasted on the dry fuels, which featured plenty of dead trees from a spruce budworm infestation and a 1999 derecho event that felled thousands of trees. Extreme fires with a rapid rate of spread resulted and created at least two massive pyrocumulus clouds — giant thunderstorms spawned by the heat of intense fires that reached the stratosphere. Tomer Burg has an excellent thread explaining the meteorology that led up to the wildfire event:

How to interpret PM 2.5 readings at airnow.gov and purpleair.com

You can access EPA’s real-time PM2.5 NowCast AQI numbers at https://www.airnow.gov (note that you can’t just type in “airnow.gov” to get to the website, since they haven’t configured it to allow that). The AQI numbers are updated once per hour (shortly after the top of the hour). Because the EPA standard is based on a 24-hour average, the raw hourly data is not reported. Instead, EPA’s NowCast AQI numbers are computed using a 12-hour weighted average from the past 12 hours of data.

When air quality is highly variable (e.g., during a wildfire or a sudden wind shift), the algorithm heavily weights the past 1-3 hours. Otherwise, the past 12 hours are weighted nearly equally, and the AQI number is a 12-hour average. At the end of a day, the official daily AQI is calculated using a true arithmetic 24-hour average.

Don’t miss out: If you sign up by August 1 to support our extreme weather coverage with a monthly donation, you’ll be invited to an exclusive conversation with our meteorologists later this season. Become a monthly supporter of Jeff Masters, Bob Henson, and Irene Sans’s extreme weather coverage today.  Donate

In contrast, the AQI numbers at purpleair.com update every few seconds, so you get a much better idea of rapid changes in air quality. Clicking on a dot will bring up a graph of the past few days of data; the default averaging time for this graph is 10 minutes, but you can change this to a longer time span. Important: you need to choose “US EPA” in the “Apply Conversion” setting, or else the PM 2.5 readings will be too high.

The current situation: over 20 large fires out of control

As of Friday, there were 193 active fires covering 1.7 million acres (673,000 ha) in Ontario, with the vast majority of these considered to be “out of control,” according to the Canadian Interagency Forest Fire Centre. Of the 22 large fires in over 2,000 acres burning nearest the U.S. border, 18 were receiving a full fire-fighting response, and four were not being fought. In the U.S., the National Interagency Fire Center reported six large fires in northern Minnesota, all 0% contained, covering 60,000 acres.

Figure 3. Monthly fire assessment for North America for July 2026 (left) and August 2026 (right). Red shading indicates areas where conditions would favor increased fire activity. Green shading indicates areas where conditions would favor decreased fire activity. (image credit: National Interagency Fire Center).

The forecast: relief coming by Saturday for the worst-affected states

Thunderstorms moved over the Minnesota/Ontario fire area Friday morning, bringing up to two inches of rain. This water will help firefighting efforts, but the fire danger index in Ontario is still high to very high, and the thunderstorms may have sparked additional fires.

The cold front accompanying this storm will bring westerly winds that should flush the worst of the smoke out of Chicago and Wisconsin by Friday afternoon, and out of Michigan by early Saturday morning. However, a renewed invasion of smoke is predicted for Michigan and Wisconsin Saturday night into Sunday, bringing more “Hazardous” AQI conditions. Another pulse of smoke is predicted to move deep into the central U.S. on Wednesday, perhaps reaching Arkansas and Missouri.

We can anticipate that some of the major smoke-emitting fires in Minnesota/Ontario will continue to burn for an extended period, with some lasting until the first snows come in October. The long-range fire assessment (Fig. 3) calls for above-average fire risk over much of the forested areas of northern Canada and the western U.S. this summer, and we should anticipate frequent bouts of poor air quality from wildfire smoke across much of North America. July and August are usually the peak months of fire season, which typically extends well into September. A potent North American Monsoon is now bringing heavy rains to parts of the southwest U.S., so the overall fire risk in that region may decrease to average levels by August.

Many lightning-caused fires occurred in the Pacific Northwest yesterday. With hot, windy weather expected to move in during the coming week, some of these fires may well become significant smoke producers.

Climate change predicted to further worsen wildfires

The number of people in the U.S. who experienced at least one day each year with smoke-related fine particle pollution levels at three times over the EPA standard has increased 27-fold over the last decade, and we can expect climate change to significantly worsen wildfire smoke problems in North America in the coming years.

For example, the frequency and magnitude of extreme wildfires around the globe have doubled in the past 21 years because of climate change, according to a study published last year in the journal Nature Ecology & Evolution. Rising temperatures have ushered in an era of hotter and drier weather, lending the right conditions for wildfires to erupt, the researchers found.

Here are some additional resources on climate change and wildfires:

• Explore how climate change has worsened wildfire smoke.
• Explore how fire weather has changed in your area on Climate Central’s interactive map.
• Visit their More U.S. Fire Weather analysis for science background and methodology.
• Explore our guide to staying safe from wildfires and smoke.

This is a re-post from The Climate Brink

I’m generally pretty measured in how I discuss climate data. There has been only one time in recent years when I was truly shocked: when global temperatures came in for September 2023 at a full 0.5C warmer than any prior September on record.1 Once until today, that is. With the July runs now in from 667 ensemble members across 14 different seasonal forecast models, it looks like this year’s El Niño is not only very likely to be the strongest event since reliable records began – it may end up the strongest by a truly mind-blowing margin.

The multi-model median for the event’s peak (measured as detrended sea surface temperature anomalies in the Niño 3.4 region of the tropical Pacific) currently stands at 3.6C, roughly 0.8C hotter than the prior record of 2.75C set in 2015-16. For context, the gap between the strongest and the fifth strongest El Niño of the past 150 years is only about 0.5C. The models are forecasting something outside the envelope of anything we have ever observed.

Peak monthly Niño 3.4 anomaly for every El Niño event since 1877, with each event measured against its own era’s centered 30-year climatology (the ONI convention, applied at monthly resolution to match the forecasts’ monthly values). Events after 1950 (blue) use ERSSTv5; earlier events (open gold) use the HadISST reconstruction. The 2026-27 forecast shows the weighted median of 667 ensemble member peaks from 14 models (July 2026 initializations, members weighted so each model counts equally), with the bar spanning the middle 80% of members.

A few things stand out in this figure. First, no event in a century and a half of observations has ever pushed meaningfully past 2.75C. The legendary 1877-78 event comes closest, in a statistical dead heat with 2015-16 (2.73C vs 2.75C, well within the uncertainty of 19th-century ship data). Second, the middle 80% of this year’s forecast ensemble sits entirely at or above that all-time record: even the low end of the plume (2.8C) grazes it. Around 91% of ensemble members exceed the 2015-16 record at their peak.

To see what this would look like as the event unfolds, we can compare the forecast trajectory against the five strongest events ever observed, month by month through the development year and into the following spring.

Monthly Niño 3.4 anomaly trajectories for the five strongest observed El Niño events across their development year and decay, against the 2026-27 multi-model forecast. Note that the expected peak (3.6C) sits slightly above the top of the dashed median trajectory (3.5C): individual models peak in different months (e.g. CFSv2 in November, ECMWF in December) so the median of the individual model peaks runs a bit higher than the peak of the median line.

What is remarkable here is not just the level but the trajectory. The 2026 event is developing faster than 1997-98, the previous gold standard for explosive El Niño onsets. And unlike 2015 which started its year already warm from a precursor event, this one launched from genuinely La Niña-ish conditions in January.

Of course, a multi-model median can hide a lot of disagreement, so it is worth looking at where each individual model puts the peak. The figure below shows the distribution of member peaks across all 14 models.

Peak 2026 Niño 3.4 forecast: model-weighted histogram of each ensemble member’s July-December 2026 maximum (top) and per-model medians with 10-90% member ranges (bottom).

Every single model’s median peak lands at very strong (”super”) El Niño intensity, and all but one (JAMSTEC’s SINTEX-F, at 2.2C) put their median above the 2015-16 record. Model agreement this strong is unusual, though I’d note that agreement is not the same thing as skill as I discuss later on.

Long-time readers may recall that in a warming world, the raw Niño 3.4 anomaly risks conflating El Niño with the broader ocean warming trend. NOAA’s answer is the relative ONI (RONI), which subtracts the tropical-mean SST anomaly to isolate the ENSO signal. In RONI terms the record holder is actually 1982-83 (a peak monthly value of 2.69C), not 2015-16. However, even using RONI the multi-model median in 11 of the 14 models shows a record event.

As above, but for the relative Niño 3.4 index (RONI): Niño 3.4 anomaly minus the 20S-20N tropical-mean anomaly, with the L’Heureux et al. (2024) variance-restoration scaling applied. The record event in RONI terms is 1982-83 (a peak monthly value of 2.69C).

Putting the two together: models give a ~91% chance of a record peak in Niño 3.4 terms and ~77% in RONI terms this year. Whichever way you slice the index, the forecast says the same thing: this is more likely than not to be the strongest El Niño ever observed.

So how did we get here? The forecast has been building all spring. The figure below shows how each model’s projection evolved from its March run through its July run, against observed monthly conditions.

Ensemble-mean Niño 3.4 forecast from each model’s March, April, May, June and July 2026 runs (blues deepening with recency; July in red with its full member range shaded), against observed monthly means from the daily OISSTv2.1 series (black). One corrupted NCAR-CESM1 ensemble member is excluded from the July run for clarity.

Nearly every panel shows the same thing: each successive run warmer than the last, across five months and thirteen independent modeling systems.2 This pattern of sustained revision as initialization improves is the classic signature of a real intensifying event rather than model noise. The reason is visible in the black line: observed conditions kept outrunning the forecasts. (Though credit where credit is due: NCAR’s CESM1 was calling ~4C back in March when that looked absurd, and I and others called it out as unrealistic at the time. The ensemble has since converged toward it.)

The combined multi-model picture makes the same point more concisely.

The model-weighted median Niño 3.4 forecast from each monthly initialization, March through July 2026 (July with its 10-90% member band), against observed monthly OISSTv2.1.

The peak median has climbed from ~2.8C in the March runs to 3.6C in July — though notably the revisions are decelerating (+0.5C, +0.14C, +0.14C over the last three cycles), suggesting the forecast is converging rather than still escalating.

It is also worth looking at what this event looks like spatially. The figure below maps each model’s SST anomaly field at its own forecast peak month.

Sea surface temperature anomaly forecasts at each model’s own 2026 peak month (the July-December month maximizing its Niño 3.4 mean), from the July 2026 initializations of 6 NMME models, 7 C3S centres, and SINTEX-F (seasonal mean, June initialization). Niño 3.4 region boxed; panels ordered warmest first.

The classic east-Pacific El Niño tongue is there in every model. I’d flag CMCC as the outlier to discount: its 5.3C peak sits a full 1.3C above the next warmest model. Because we are looking at the multi-model median, even discounting CMCC doesn’t change the overall forecast meaningfully.

Meanwhile, the ocean is not waiting for the models. Daily SSTs in the Niño 3.4 region are already running around 2C above their era-adjusted average – the threshold for a very strong (”super”) El Niño if sustained – and it is only mid-July. The figure below puts this in context, showing the daily Niño 3.4 anomaly for every year in the satellite record, with each year measured against its own era’s climatology so the long-term warming trend doesn’t mess up the comparison.

Daily Niño 3.4 SST anomaly for every year since 1982, from NOAA OISSTv2.1 (final plus near-real-time) via NOAA CoastWatch ERDDAP. Each year is referenced to its own centered 30-year day-of-year climatology (the ONI convention), removing the long-term warming trend. 2026 is shown in red; the great El Niño development years 2015 and 1997 are highlighted for comparison.

No prior year in the 45-year record has been anywhere near this warm this early: not 1997 (+1.6C at this date), the previous benchmark for an explosive onset, and not 2015 (+1.3C). And El Niño almost always peaks near the end of the calendar year – typically between November and January, occasionally as early as October – so the physics of ENSO’s seasonal phase-locking says there is likely a good deal of intensification still to come.3

What does all this mean for global temperatures? Because global temperature lags ENSO by around three to five months, most of this event’s warming will land in 2027, which is now shaping up to be a genuinely alarming year and the warmest on record by a sizable margin. But a strengthening El Niño does load the dice for late 2026: our dashboard currently gives this year a non-trivial chance (~28%) of edging out 2024 as the warmest on record, up from ~13% at the start of the month..

I want to end with an important caveat about these numbers: the models have never been verified in this territory. Seasonal forecast systems have real, demonstrated skill at this lead time for ordinary events, but no ensemble has ever forecast (and then verified against) a 3.6C El Niño, because one has never happened. Model agreement is reassuring, but it is not proof. But the uncertainties can cut both ways, and the observed ocean, not just the models, is already in uncharted waters.

As always, for daily updates on the El Niño forecast and global temperatures head over to our Climate Dashboard.

1 I referred to it as “absolutely gobsmackingly bananas” at the time, which might be the only time something I said ever went properly viral online.

2 The SINTEX-F model is not included in this plot as I only began tracking it in July.

3 The lone exception in the modern record is the unusual two-year 1986-88 event, which reached its ONI maximum in August 1987. Every other strong event since 1950 peaked between October and January.

A listing of 28 news and opinion articles we found interesting and shared on social media during the past week: Sun, July 12, 2026 thru Sat, July 18, 2026. Stories we promoted this week, by category:

Climate Change Impacts (7 articles)

• New research : Doomsday Glacier ice shelf could 'give way any day now' "Just have a Think" on Youtubue, Dave Borlace, July 5, 2026.
• Grey whales are dying along our shores. Researchers say a warming climate may be part of the problem Although a number of factors may be contributing to the die-off, scientists say it’s likely at least partly due to climate change. Melting Arctic ice and warmer waters may be reducing the number of small sea creatures the whales rely on for food, and altering the selection of what does remain. CBC'', Brandie Weikle, Laura Lynch, Jul 12, 2026.
• The Strongest El Niño Ever With the July runs now in from 667 ensemble members across 14 different seasonal forecast models, it looks like this year’s El Niño is not only very likely to be the strongest event since reliable records began – it may end up the strongest by a truly mind-blowing margin. The Climate Brink, Zeke Hausfather, Jul 13, 2026.
• Global warming's new wrinkle - it's too hot for nuclear reactors to operate The scorching summer in the U.S. and Europe and wildfires across both continents are well documented, but global warming flexed its power in a new way this week as France said it shut down a handful of nuclear reactors because of the extreme heat. Callaway Climate Insights, David Callaway, Jul 14, 2026.
• Climate Change Contributes to a Smokier World Higher temperatures and drought conditions are contributing to more intense wildfires and extending the summer fire season in North America. NYT, Quinn Glabicki, Jul 16, 2026.
• Canada's boreal wildfires aren't just bad forest management Higher fire season temperatures are strongly correlated with increased area burned The Climate Brink, Zeke Hausfather, Jul 17, 2026.
• Dangerous and historic wildfire smoke pollution event engulfs the U.S. and Canada Most of the fires grew out of control under extreme heat conditions made up to five times more likely by climate change. Yale Climate Connections, Jeff Masters, Jul 17, 2026.

Climate Science and Research (6 articles)

• Scientists finally solved the mystery of Earth's greatest mass extinction According to the researchers, the work also has important implications for the present. The environmental conditions before the Great Dying resembled the relatively cool, oxygen rich oceans that existed for millions of years before human activities began rapidly altering Earth's climate through fossil fuel emissions. ScienceDaily, Stanford University press office, Jul 12, 2026.
• Changes in Funding Could Tank Quality of Ocean Heat Content Data An uncertain funding landscape threatens the longevity of an ocean observation system critical to projecting tropical storms, sea level rise, and more. Eos, Grace van Deelen, Jul 13, 2026.
• A deep pool of extremely warm water is available to fuel El Niño in summer 2026 Climate.us, Rebecca Lindsey, July 16, 2026.
• The report oil companies are worried about: Climate attribution science New report says our ability to tie weather damages to climate change is improving. Ars Technica, John Timmer, Jul 17, 2026.
• As climate extremes collide, attribution science evolves A National Academy of Sciences report on extreme climate event attribution confronts political climate denialism with scientific evidence. Inside Climate News, Bob Berwyn, Jul 17, 2026.
• "iT'S CaLLeD SuMmER" Dr Gilbz on Youtube, Ella Gilbert, July 17, 2026.

Climate Policy and Politics (4 articles)

• Trump taps climate skeptic to run US government`s flagship climate report Matthew Wielicki frequently criticizes established climate science online, including in videos from rightwing PragerU The Guardian, Dharna Noor, Jul 10, 2026.
• The Climate Deal Trump Won`t Kill CORSIA, the global aviation climate scheme run by the UN’s aviation body (ICAO), may be the only climate agreement Trump will never try to kill precisely because it asks almost nothing of the United States, or of airlines anywhere in the world. CleanTechnica, William Todts, Jul 13, 2026.
• An extraordinary White House meeting NYT, David Gelles, Jul 14, 2026.
• Political representatives found more polarized on climate change than their constituents Phys.org, University of Konstanz, Jul 16, 2026.

Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation (3 articles)

• Sweeping victory for Europe as 15 nations top climate scoreboard Europe has come top in the latest Environmental Performance Index, partly due to the boom in renewables. But experts warn that more progress is needed. EuroNews, Liam Gilliver, Jul 12, 2026.
• Renewables, Led By Solar, Were Largest Source of Energy Supply Growth Globally in 2025 Solar achieved 30% growth in 2025 and its share of total power generation reached 8.7% – surpassing wind (8.4%) for the first time and almost equalling nuclear’s share of 8.8%. Behind solar, wind power was the second largest source of renewables growth in 2025, increasing by 8.2% year-on-year. CleanTechnica, Zachary Shahan, Jul 13, 2026.
• The Fake Air-Conditioner Climate Debate ClimateAdam on Youtube, Adam Levy, July 13, 2026.

Miscellaneous (3 articles)

• 2026 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #28 A listing of 28 news and opinion articles we found interesting and shared on social media during the past week: Sun, July 5, 2026 thru Sat, July 11, 2026. Skeptical Science, Bärbel Winkler & Doug Bostrom, Jul 12, 2026.
• You can help scientists study walruses A global science project is asking volunteers to search Arctic satellite images for the animals, which are threatened by climate change. Yale Climate Connections, YCC Team, Jul 14, 2026.
• National Academies Report Backs Climate Change Attribution Science Attribution science is advancing quickly, researchers said. That could support lawsuits seeking damages for severe events worsened by global warming. New York Times, Raymond Zhong, Jul 16, 2026.

Climate Education and Communication (2 articles)

• Why climate scientists need to talk more about the very worst-case scenarios The Conversation, Peter Stott, Jul 13, 2026.
• Daniel Swain PhD: New Climate Denial, Same as the Old Climate Denial 'New Climate Denial" is not so new after all. This is Not Cool, greenman3610, Jul 14, 2026.

Climate Law and Justice (1 article)

• He sued the oil industry for $51B. Now he faces Republicans in a private grilling. The fossil fuel industry and its allies have targeted the science that factors into many of the climate lawsuits for nearly a decade; with attribution science showing how fossil fuel companies supercharge extreme weather the industry claims that the growing field exists solely to propel litigation. Politico, Lesley Clark, Hailey Fuchs, Corbin Hiar and Chelsea Harvey, Jul 15, 2026.

Public Misunderstandings about Climate Science (1 article)

• The 13 biggest myths about heatwaves – and how to bust them With some still unable to accept humanity’s role in climate chaos, we tackle common misconceptions and deceptions The Guardian, Jonathan Watts, July 11, 2026.

Public Misunderstandings about Climate Solutions (1 article)

• Do electric vehicles stop working in extreme heat? No - Extreme heat can temporarily reduce range, but recent research does not show that EVs are unable to operate in hot weather. Skeptical Science, Sue Bin Park, July 14, 2026.

If you happen upon high quality climate-science and/or climate-myth busting articles from reliable sources while surfing the web, please feel free to submit them via this Google form so that we may share them widely. Thanks!

Open access notables

Renewable energy discourses of fossil fuel companies: obstruction and delay of climate action, Desai et al., Energy Sustainability and Society

For decades, multinational fossil fuel companies have strategically promoted discourses to obstruct climate action. Initially, the fossil fuel industry publicized communications that denied the role of fossil fuels in climate destabilization. Recently, however, they have advanced nuanced messages to delay climate action and policy. As the climate crisis worsens and calls to phase out fossil fuels intensify, research into the industry has revealed pervasive “greenwashing” and a discrepancy between external messaging on renewable energy and internal operational positions. Corporate annual reports, which are public-facing communications, offer insights into how companies align their internal strategy with their external messaging. Based on a textual analysis of the annual reports of four of the largest fossil fuel companies (ExxonMobil, BP, Shell, and TotalEnergies), this research compares how companies have adapted their communication strategies about renewable energy between 2016 and 2022.

When algorithms decide the climate: AI, disinformation, and the crisis of environmental truth in the Anthropocene, Vidal, PLOS Climate [commentary]

We often describe the Anthropocene as a planetary emergency. Yet beneath the ecological upheaval lies a deeper and more destabilising fracture: the erosion of environmental truth [1]. By environmental truth, I refer to the collectively negotiated understanding of climate and ecological realities, shaped by scientific, social, and technological processes. Climate knowledge today is reported, debated, and contested, but increasingly it is computed [2]. Algorithmic infrastructures now decide what becomes visible, credible, and politically actionable. My argument here is direct: AI systems and digital platforms have become co-producers of environmental truth, and this reconfigures the very conditions under which climate policy, public debate, and democratic decision-making occur. The Anthropocene is as much a crisis of meaning as it is of ecology.

When models outrun politics: Biofuels as a stress test for scenario plausibility, Hedenus, Energy Research & Social Science

Long-term energy scenarios often assign a substantial role to biofuels in net-zero pathways, despite decades of policy support and limited evidence of sustained cost reductions or large-scale diffusion. Using biofuels as a critical case, this paper examines a broader problem in scenario construction: the misalignment between modelled technology pathways and socio-technical feasibility. Drawing on innovation theory, learning-curve evidence, and observed patterns of policy support and investment, it argues that biofuels are constrained by a configuration of mutually reinforcing limitations, including feedstock-dominated costs, weak learning dynamics, and permanent policy dependence. These constraints do not form a simple causal chain, but jointly limit the conditions under which large-scale competitiveness could emerge. Despite this, energy system and integrated assessment models often project extensive biofuel deployment under assumptions that abstract from political volatility and investment risk. The paper argues for greater use of empirical plausibility checks to improve the relevance of long-term energy scenarios.

Global Warming Has Accelerated Significantly, Foster & Rahmstorf, Geophysical Research Letters

Recent record-hot years have caused discussion over whether global warming has accelerated. Previous analysis found acceleration (i.e., increase in warming rate) has not yet reached a 95% confidence level, given natural temperature variability. We remove the estimated influence of three main natural variability factors: El Niño, volcanism, and solar variation. The resulting adjusted and thus less “noisy” data show that there has been acceleration with over 98% confidence, with faster warming over the last 10+ years than during any previous decade.

Compound coldwave and freezing-snow events decrease during 1994−2023 over global land area, Ma et al., Advances in Climate Change Research

With accelerating global warming, compound climate extremes pose amplified threats to ecosystems and socio-economic stability. However, the occurrence and evolution of Compound Coldwave and Freezing-Snow (CCFS) events in a warming climate remain a critical knowledge gap. This study provides a quantitative assessment of the spatiotemporal changes of CCFS characteristics, including its frequency, duration, and severity from 1964 to 2023, by integrating daily minimum temperature data from Berkeley Earth with hourly precipitation amount and precipitation type data from the ERA5 reanalysis. The spatial distribution of CCFS events exhibits a pronounced interhemispheric asymmetry, with over 90% of occurrences located in the Northern Hemisphere. Mid- to high-latitude regions of Eurasia and North America, where show the highest CCFS frequency, also experienced substantial temporal changes. Compared to the earlier period (1964−1993), notable declines in CCFS frequency, total duration, deficit heat, and combined severity are observed across most land regions during the recent warming period (1994−2023). Globally averaged trends reveal a faster reduction in CCFS frequency and total duration, as opposed to a slower decline in deficit heat and combined severity. The reduction has been particularly rapid in the top 20% most affected land areas, concentrated in subtropical North America, northern/eastern Europe, and Siberia. In these regions, average event frequency, duration, deficit heat, and combined severity declined markedly from approximately 3.5 events, 28 d, −44 °C, and 25 in 1964 to about 2 events, 18 d, −14 °C, and 17 in 2023. However, the average duration per event extends from 1964 to 2023, especially across mid to high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere. Furthermore, CCFS frequency and duration demonstrate a nearly linear decrease with global warming, while severity indicators follow a nonlinear, logarithmic decay. This disparity indicates distinct sensitivities among different CCFS characteristics. For all CCFS indicators except average duration, the linear component of the response outweighs the nonlinear component. The results will aid forecasting efforts and help to improve hazard preparedness and mitigation strategies.

From this week's government/NGO section:

Climate Change in the American Mind: Beliefs & Attitudes, Spring 2026, Leiserowitz et al., Yale University and George Mason University

Americans who think global warming is happening outnumber those who think it is not by a ratio of more than 4 to 1 (68% versus 16%). By a margin of more than 2 to 1, Americans are more likely to think global warming is mostly human-caused (59%) than to think it is mostly caused by natural changes in the environment (27%). 66% of Americans say they are at least “somewhat worried” about global warming, including 29% who say they are “very worried.” 59% of Americans think global warming is affecting weather in the United States, including 35% who think weather is being affected “a lot.” 13% of Americans have considered moving to avoid the impacts of global warming.

Cheaper. Cleaner. Unstoppable. Clean technologies that are delivering for the climate, James Haselip and Lakshmi Bhamidipati, United Nations Environment Program

At a time when climate risks are intensifying, this policy briefs highlights a powerful and hopeful shift: many clean solutions are no longer niche—they are becoming the new normal. Across energy, transport, buildings and food systems, “positive tipping points” are emerging. As costs fall, technologies scale, and public support grows, adoption is accelerating in self reinforcing ways. Solar power, electric mobility, and sustainable cooling are proving that climate action can be economically competitive, socially beneficial and globally scalable. This report shows that the transition is not only possible—it is already underway. With the right policies, investments and partnerships, we can amplify these positive tipping points, unlock cascading benefits, and deliver a future that is more resilient, equitable and sustainable. 287 articles in 92 journals by 1998 contributing authors

Physical science of climate change, effects

A strong constraint on radiative forcing of well-mixed greenhouse gases, Feng et al., Nature Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41586-026-10289-x

A Weakened East Asian Winter Monsoon Triggered Record-Breaking Marine Heatwaves in the South China Sea During 2023–2024, Lu et al., Journal of Geophysical Research Oceans 10.1029/2026jc024234

Bipolar Oceanic Processes Drive Indonesian Throughflow Decline Under Climate Warming, Wang et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2026gl121630

Contrasting Responses of Dissolved Oxygen in the Northern Benguela Upwelling System to Four Decades of Warming, Salama et al., Journal of Geophysical Research Oceans Open Access 10.1029/2025jc023848

Deep ocean control of global temperature after net-zero emissions, Lee et al., Nature Geoscience 10.1038/s41561-026-01934-1

Drivers of Trends in Northern Hemisphere Cold Spell Characteristics Over 1980–2025, Osmolska et al., White Rose Research Online (University of Leeds, The University of Sheffield, University of York) pmh:oai:eprints.whiterose.ac.uk:242617

Dry and moist convective upper bounds for near-surface temperatures, Nicolas & Hotz, Weather and Climate Dynamics Open Access pdf 10.5194/wcd-7-843-2026

Marine Heatwaves in the Java Sea, Indonesia: Characteristics and Atmospheric Onset Drivers, Bayhaqi & Iskandar, Open MIND Open Access pmh:10.6084/m9.figshare.31444423

Ocean acidification as a planetary signal linking Earth system memory to deep-time lithosphere–ocean geochemical interactions, Das & Choudhury, Earth-Science Reviews Open Access pdf 10.1016/j.earscirev.2026.105623

Recent equatorward shift of the summer North Atlantic jet dominated by internal climate variability, Sheng et al., Science Advances Open Access 10.1126/sciadv.aee8136

Sea-surface temperature variability and climate drivers in Cuba's Jardines de la Reina National Park (2003–2022), Castillo-Álvarez et al., Ocean science Open Access 10.5194/os-22-1409-2026

The Arctic overturning circulation: transformations, pathways and timescales, Dörr et al., Ocean science Open Access 10.5194/os-22-565-2026

The Response of the Global Overturning Circulation to Recent and Projected Antarctic Meltwater Changes, Gülk et al., Journal of Geophysical Research Oceans Open Access 10.1029/2026jc024622

Understanding the Response of the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation to Carbon Dioxide and Sea Surface Temperature Increases in Aqua-Planet Simulations, Johnson et al., Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres Open Access 10.1029/2025jd045481

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
The correlation between Arctic sea ice, cloud phase and radiation using A-Train satellites, Atmospheric chemistry and physics, 10.5194/acp-24-7899-2024 12 cites.

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Observations of climate change, effects

Assessing climate change impacts on heat waves and heat index: a case study of Uttar Pradesh, India, Awasthi et al., Frontiers in Climate Open Access pdf 10.3389/fclim.2026.1679941

Attribution of the 2022 Asian Spatially Compound Heatwave-Flooding Event to Atmospheric Circulation, La Niña and Anthropogenic Warming, Wang et al., Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres Open Access pdf 10.1029/2025jd045461

Burned Area Over Africa Reduced by Shortened Dry Season, Mohammed et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2026gl121751

California Temperature Since 1520 CE Shows Interactions in Extremes of Heat, Drought, and Fire, Harley et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2025gl118590

Century-Scale Climate Evolution in Semiarid High Plateaus, Algeria, Rouabhi, Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology 10.1175/jamc-d-25-0181.1

Climate impacts from North American boreal forest fires, Gerrevink et al., Nature Geoscience Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41561-026-01940-3

Compound coldwave and freezing-snow events decrease during 1994−2023 over global land area, Ma et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2026.06.032

Drivers of Trends in Northern Hemisphere Cold Spell Characteristics Over 1980–2025, Osmolska et al., White Rose Research Online (University of Leeds, The University of Sheffield, University of York) pmh:oai:eprints.whiterose.ac.uk:242617

Emerging dryland flooding, Bai et al., Earth-Science Reviews 10.1016/j.earscirev.2026.105612

From stationary to non-stationary: Characterizing extreme precipitation behavior in an arid environment, Nikoo, Atmospheric Research 10.1016/j.atmosres.2026.109212

Global Warming Has Accelerated Significantly, Foster & Rahmstorf, Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2025gl118804

Intensifying droughts, heatwaves, and compound drought–heatwave events and their spatiotemporal patterns in Africa (1979–2024), TIAN et al., Weather and Climate Extremes Open Access 10.1016/j.wace.2026.100879

Modeled and Observed Stratospheric Temperature Changes: Implications for Fingerprint Studies, Santer et al., AGU Advances Open Access 10.1029/2025av002196

Nonlinear increase of compound drought-heatwave events since the early 2000s, Kim et al., Science Advances Open Access 10.1126/sciadv.aea3038

Quantification of the influence of anthropogenic and natural factors on the record-high temperatures in 2023 and 2024, Farago et al., Earth System Dynamics Open Access 10.5194/esd-17-451-2026

Rainfall and Rain-on-Snow Events Over Greenland in Summer: Climatology, Trends, Synoptics, Frame et al., Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres Open Access 10.1029/2025jd044726

Seasonal characteristics and trends in precipitation partitioning in the Arctic, Cast et al., cryosphere Open Access 10.5194/tc-20-2127-2026

Spatiotemporal Variations in Warm Season Heat Extremes in the Midwestern United States, 1959–2020, Rasaq-Balogun & Schoof, Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology 10.1175/jamc-d-25-0202.1

Warming of the high-mountainous climate sensitive Jammu and Kashmir during the period 1980–2024, Gopikrishnan et al., Scientific Reports Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41598-026-61302-2

Winter Warmth: Quantifying Historical Changes in Very Warm Winter Days across the United States, Martin et al., Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology 10.1175/jamc-d-25-0120.1

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Amplified warming of North American cold extremes linked to human-induced changes in temperature variability, Nature Communications, 10.1038/s41467-024-49734-8 21 cites.

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Instrumentation & observational methods of climate change, effects

A satellite-based approach for estimating runoff and river discharge in the Pan-Arctic region from 2003 to 2022, Leopardi et al., Remote Sensing of Environment Open Access 10.1016/j.rse.2026.115353

A standardized permafrost ground temperature collection for Canada 2025, Meier-Legault et al., Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research) Open Access 10.5281/zenodo.18675016

Advancing Climate Services in South Asia: The SARCI Framework for Actionable Climate Information and Regional Capacity Building, Bhuyan et al., Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 10.1175/bams-d-25-0172.1

Earth observation for land representation: implementing the Paris Agreement requirements for greenhouse gas reporting, Cima et al., Climate Policy 10.1080/14693062.2026.2638495

Low Cross-Product Agreement in Global Coastal Marine Heatwaves (1982–2023) and Implications for Trend Attribution, Sun et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2026gl124134

Modeled and Observed Stratospheric Temperature Changes: Implications for Fingerprint Studies, Santer et al., AGU Advances Open Access 10.1029/2025av002196

Performance of gauge-based and reanalysis gridded temperature datasets in representing means and extremes across different climate zones of the Brazos River Basin, United States, Tarkegn et al., Frontiers in Climate Open Access pdf 10.3389/fclim.2026.1731069

The Observed Circumpolar Decline of Antarctic Bottom Water Volume, Wyatt et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2025gl121359

Trends and Sensitivities of Low-Cloud Cover and Top Height From Spaceborne Lidar Observations, Tesche et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2026gl122478

Trends in Atmospheric Radiative Cooling from Satellite, Reanalyses, and CMIP6 Datasets, Jouan et al., Journal of Climate 10.1175/jcli-d-25-0511.1

Weather and Climate Extremes: Simplex, Dynamical Systems and Hull Clustering, Hannachi et al., Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres Open Access 10.1029/2025jd045044

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Improving global temperature datasets to better account for non-uniform warming, Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 10.1002/qj.4791 7 cites.

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Modeling, simulation & projection of climate change, effects

Assessing the Likelihood of Unprecedented Antarctic Heat in the Current Climate, Suitters et al., Journal of Climate Open Access 10.1175/jcli-d-25-0436.1

Climate response to Nature Future scenarios in a regional Earth System Model, Sieber et al., Repository for Publications and Research Data (ETH Zurich) Open Access pmh:oai:www.research-collection.ethz.ch:20.500.11850/800243

Dynamic and steric sea-level changes due to a collapsing AMOC in the Community Earth System Model, Westen et al., Ocean science Open Access 10.5194/os-22-1353-2026

Dynamically downscaled future projections of the Northwest Atlantic Ocean across low to high emissions scenarios, Kim et al., Ocean science Open Access 10.5194/os-22-1987-2026

Extreme Coastal Waves Due To Australian East Coast Lows in a Warming Climate, Deshmukh et al., Journal of Geophysical Research Oceans Open Access 10.1029/2025jc023405

Future Climate Projections of Hazardous Convective Weather Using an Ensemble of Environment-Informed, Convection-Permitting Dynamical Downscaling Simulations, Wang et al., Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres Open Access 10.1029/2025jd045354

Robust Yet Diverse Tropical Responses to Antarctic Meltwater Across Models, Zhang et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2025gl120291

The Antarctic Peninsula under present day climate and future low, medium-high and very high emissions scenarios, Davies et al., Frontiers in Environmental Science Open Access pdf 10.3389/fenvs.2025.1730203

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Emergence of lake conditions that exceed natural temperature variability, Nature Geoscience, 10.1038/s41561-024-01491-5 40 cites.

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Advancement of climate & climate effects modeling, simulation & projection

A statistical-dynamical method for projecting temperature across multiple SSPs from a limited subset: A CMIP6 case study, Xie et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2026.06.030

Accessible Climate and Impact Model Output for Studying the Human and Environmental Impacts of Nuclear Conflict, Harrison et al., Geoscience Data Journal Open Access 10.1002/gdj3.70076

AerChemMIP2 – unraveling the role of reactive gases, aerosol particles, and land use for air quality and climate change in CMIP7, Fiedler et al., Geoscientific model development Open Access pdf 10.5194/gmd-19-3477-2026

CMIP7 data request: land and land ice priorities and opportunities, Li et al., Geoscientific model development Open Access pdf 10.5194/gmd-19-3129-2026

Marine Secondary Aerosols Are Required for Modeling Clouds in the Arctic, Lapere et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2026gl121724

MESMER v1.0.0: consolidating the modular Earth system model emulator into a sustainable research software package, Bauer et al., Geoscientific model development Open Access 10.5194/gmd-19-5669-2026

Modifying Mountains in Models Reduces Wet Bias in Western North America, Sexton et al., Journal of Climate 10.1175/jcli-d-25-0428.1

Optimizing global forest burned area simulations: Multi-earth system model assessment, Bayesian model averaging synthesis, and climate drivers, Wang & Di, Global and Planetary Change 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2026.105390

The PolarRES dataset: a state-of-the-art regional climate model ensemble for understanding Antarctic climate, Gilbert et al., cryosphere Open Access 10.5194/tc-20-2629-2026

Uneven Spatial Distribution of Arctic Warming in Boreal Winter and CMIP6 Historical Simulation Bias, Bao et al., Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres 10.1029/2026jd046383

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Improving CMIP6 Atmospheric River Precipitation Estimation by CycleConsistent Generative Adversarial Networks, Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres, 10.1029/2023jd040698 28 cites.

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Cryosphere & climate change

A standardized permafrost ground temperature collection for Canada 2025, Meier-Legault et al., Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research) Open Access 10.5281/zenodo.18675016

Brief communication: Inferring Glacier Equilibrium Line Altitudes in the Europe Alps with FROST, Herrmann et al., cryosphere Open Access pdf 10.5194/tc-20-3817-2026

Brief communication: Uncertainties in Southern Ocean sea surface conditions and their impact on Antarctic climate over 1958–1978, Dalaiden & Bethke, cryosphere Open Access pdf 10.5194/tc-20-2089-2026

Changes in 1958–2019 Greenland surface mass balance are attributable to both greenhouse gases and anthropogenic aerosols, Kuo et al., cryosphere Open Access pdf 10.5194/tc-20-2317-2026

Changes in Arctic Sea Ice Lead Width Distribution: Model Development and Experiments, Zhang et al., Journal of Geophysical Research Oceans Open Access 10.1029/2026jc024245

Changes in glacier mass balance and their drivers in the Kangri Karpo Mountains from 1980 to 2023, Ji et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2026.06.034

Contrasting dynamics of lake- and marine-terminating glaciers under same climatic conditions, Vacek et al., cryosphere Open Access 10.5194/tc-20-3827-2026

Fracture-driven weakening amplifies projected ice loss from West Antarctica, Blasco et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Open Access 10.1073/pnas.2601529123

Future Retreat of Great Aletsch Glacier and Hintereisferner – application of a full-Stokes model to two valley glaciers in the European Alps, Rückamp et al., cryosphere Open Access 10.5194/tc-20-2999-2026

High Fraction of Glacial Meltwater Along Two Separate Isopycnals Observed in Summer 2020 Near and Off the Pine Island and Thwaites Ice Shelves, West Antarctica, Kim et al., Journal of Geophysical Research Oceans Open Access 10.1029/2025jc023212

Long-term variations in precipitation types (rain, snow, and sleet) on the Tibetan Plateau: Implications for the cryosphere and ecohydrological systems, LI et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2026.03.009

Modelling the sensitivity of ice loss to calving front retreat rates in the Amundsen Sea Embayment, West Antarctica, Barnes et al., cryosphere Open Access pdf 10.5194/tc-20-777-2026

Projecting the response of Greenland's peripheral glaciers to future climate change: glacier losses, sea level impact, freshwater contributions, and peak water timing, Shafeeque et al., cryosphere Open Access 10.5194/tc-20-875-2026

Recent Observations of Thwaites Glacier, West Antarctica Are Consistent With High Rates of Loss in Next 50 Years, Goldberg et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2025gl118823

Regime transitions in Arctic surface momentum balance reveal persistent and predictable dynamical states, Liu & Liang, Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-026-75328-7

Review article: 30 years of airborne radar surveys on the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets by the Alfred Wegener Institute, Franke et al., cryosphere Open Access 10.5194/tc-20-2485-2026

Skillful multiyear prediction of Atlantic sector Arctic Sea ice and its link to AMOC variability, Li et al., Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research) Open Access 10.5281/zenodo.21118022

Synergistic effects of precipitation and phase changes intensify future rain-on-snow events in the Tianshan and Pamir regions, Central Asia, Yang et al., Weather and Climate Extremes Open Access 10.1016/j.wace.2025.100833

Tidal Mixing on the Antarctic Continental Slope Enhances Ocean Heat Transport With Implications for Sea Ice, Hus et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2026gl122819

Wind-triggered Antarctic sea-ice decline preconditioned by thinning Winter Water, Spira et al., Nature Climate Change Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41558-026-02601-4

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Degradation and local growth of “Xing'an-Baikal” permafrost responding to climate warming and the consequences, Earth-Science Reviews, 10.1016/j.earscirev.2024.104865 46 cites.

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Sea level & climate change

Dynamic and steric sea-level changes due to a collapsing AMOC in the Community Earth System Model, Westen et al., Ocean science Open Access 10.5194/os-22-1353-2026

Sea-level rise in a coastal marsh: linking increasing tidal inundation, decreasing soil strength and increasing pond expansion, Huyzentruyt et al., Biogeosciences Open Access pdf 10.5194/bg-23-751-2026

Paleoclimate & paleogeochemistry

Barriers and facilitators for using palaeoclimate evidence in UK climate decision making, Boyall et al., Geoscience Communication Open Access pdf 10.5194/gc-9-275-2026

Differences in physiological tolerance to global warming caused the Permian–Triassic transition between the Paleozoic and Modern faunas, Marquez et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 10.1073/pnas.2533086123

Global ocean heat content over the past 3 million years, Shackleton et al., Nature 10.1038/s41586-026-10116-3

Holocene Climate Changes: Unraveling Processes, Mechanisms, and Impacts Across Spatiotemporal Scales, Tan et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2025gl120388

Multi-proxy resolved timing of permafrost initiation in a peat plateau, northern Norway, Kiss et al., The Holocene Open Access 10.1177/09596836261432397

Terrestrial Ecosystem Response to Changing Temperature and Seasonality in the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum: Shallow Marine Records From the Salisbury Embayment, USA, Willard et al., Paleoceanography and Paleoclimatology Open Access 10.1029/2025pa005278

The 8.2 Ka Abrupt Climate Event: Causes, Impacts and Future Implications, Dixit & Kumari, Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews Climate Change 10.1002/wcc.70050

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Large-ensemble simulations of the North American and Greenland ice sheets at the Last Glacial Maximum with a coupled atmospheric general circulation–ice sheet model, Climate of the past, 10.5194/cp-20-1489-2024 2 cites.

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Biology & climate change, related geochemistry

Climate Change Projected to Increase Rates of Background Tree Mortality Across Eastern North America, Wang et al., Global Change Biology 10.1111/gcb.70995

Climate Warming Drives Northward Contraction and Genetic erosion in a Cold-Adapted Soil Worm Species, Chen et al., Diversity and Distributions Open Access 10.1111/ddi.70236

Climate-Driven Range Shifts Limit the Role of Non-Native Trees for Adaptation Processes of European Forests, Hazarika et al., Ecology and Evolution Open Access 10.1002/ece3.73999

Coral Reef Protection May Help Avert Risks to People, Property, and Economic Activity Caused by Projected Reef Degradation, Storlazzi et al., Earth s Future Open Access pdf 10.1029/2025ef006255

Declining Vegetation Response to Soil Moisture and Vapor Pressure Deficit in Inner Mongolian Grasslands, Zhou et al., Journal of Climate 10.1175/jcli-d-25-0597.1

Deeper waters, more calcifiers: Spatial variation in benthic assemblages highlight conservation challenges in sub-Antarctic Marine Protected areas, Bergagna et al., Marine Environmental Research 10.1016/j.marenvres.2026.107889

Developmental Stage-Specific Responses to Extreme Climatic Events and Environmental Variability in Great Tit Nestlings, Satarkar et al., Global Change Biology Open Access 10.1111/gcb.70794

Effects of Marine Heatwaves on Chlorophyll-A Concentration and Carbon Uptake in the Northwest Pacific over the past Decade, Dong et al., Journal of Geophysical Research Oceans 10.1029/2026jc024050

Elevated CO2 and warming intensify plant reliance on soil nitrogen reserves despite intensive fertilization, Zhu et al., Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-026-75147-w

Exploring turnover dynamics in Iberian Oak forests under climate change scenarios, Passos et al., Discover Conservation Open Access pdf 10.1007/s44353-026-00084-0

Fall and Spring Staging in a Refugia-Dependent Migratory Snake, Jesper et al., Ecology and Evolution Open Access 10.1002/ece3.73890

General Predictions for the Effects of Warming on Competition, Davis et al., Ecology Letters pdf 10.1111/ele.70395

Graminoids Increase Greenhouse Gas Emissions From Thawed Permafrost at the End of the Growing Season, Mollenkopf et al., Global Change Biology Open Access 10.1111/gcb.70783

Greater climate sensitivity of older forests than younger forests in the Extratropical Northern Hemisphere, Jin et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 10.1016/j.agrformet.2026.111081

Heatwaves induce strong vegetation functional suppression rather than structural changes in Sub-Saharan Africa, Okrah et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 10.1016/j.agrformet.2026.111351

Heavy Rain, Less Bloom Under Heat: Succession of Size-Structured Phytoplankton Community Without Biomass Increases in a Monsoonal Korean Coastal Ecosystem, Shin et al., Microbial Ecology Open Access 10.1007/s00248-025-02680-4

Heterotrophic respiration by soil microbes in a changing climate, Jansson et al., Nature Reviews Earth & Environment 10.1038/s43017-026-00806-x

Human-induced intensification of sea surface temperature regime shifts threatens global Large Marine Ecosystems, Xing et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-026-70986-z

Integrating ensemble species distribution modeling and ecological niche dynamics to assess climate-driven distributional changes of two major forest pests (Anoplophora chinensis and Anoplophora glabripennis) in China, Yang et al., Frontiers in Forests and Global Change Open Access pdf 10.3389/ffgc.2026.1874688

Long-term monitoring reveals biomass loss and concurrent dominance changes in coastal zooplankton community, Stoffers et al., Ecography Open Access 10.1002/ecog.07958

Marine Heatwave Persistence Drives Phytoplankton Miniaturization and Productivity Decline in the South China Sea, Zhao et al., Journal of Geophysical Research Oceans 10.1029/2025jc023755

Modelling root exudation and plant-microbe interactions under CO2 fertilization in a mature forest, Schufft et al., VU Research Portal pmh:oai:research.vu.nl:openaire_cris_publications/5249553c-3d95-4531-8c0d-286e0b0ec00c

Modelling the impacts of marine heatwaves on plankton in the Salish Sea, Suchy et al., Biogeosciences Open Access pdf 10.5194/bg-23-4667-2026

Predicting Coral Offspring Survival From Reef Thermal Histories in Ningaloo World Heritage Reef, Nobre, Open MIND Open Access pmh:10.5281/zenodo.21017257

The Interplay of Climate Change, Urbanisation, and Species Traits Shapes European Butterfly Population Trends, Colom et al., Global Ecology and Biogeography Open Access 10.1111/geb.70204

Towards rainy high Arctic winters: How experimental icing and summer warming affect tundra plant phenology, productivity and reproduction, Moullec et al., Journal of Ecology Open Access pdf 10.1111/1365-2745.70234

Tropical forests are facing increasing risks of exposure to critical temperature thresholds, Tiel et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Open Access 10.1073/pnas.2528622123

Wallace's pARCs—Making Climate, Climate Change and Biodiversity Data Available to Protected Area Managers and Conservation Planners With an Example From Biebrza National Park, Poland, Price et al., Climate Resilience and Sustainability Open Access pdf 10.1002/cli2.70031

Warming summers limit reindeer grazing, weakening herbivory pressure in the mountain tundra, Stoessel et al., Ecography Open Access 10.1002/ecog.08209

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Vegetation resistance to increasing aridity when crossing thresholds depends on local environmental conditions in global drylands, Communications Earth & Environment, 10.1038/s43247-024-01546-w 41 cites.

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GHG sources & sinks, flux, related geochemistry

A Critical Review of Carbon and Phosphorus Linkages in Soils, Ibrahim et al., Global Change Biology 10.1111/gcb.70804

A Drier Year Markedly Enhances Methane, but Not Carbon Dioxide, Emissions in a Mediterranean Reservoir, Ramón et al., Global Change Biology Open Access 10.1111/gcb.70979

Air and soil warming have different effects on soil organic carbon storage, Luo et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-026-03367-5

An Ice Sheet-to-Ocean Analysis of Carbon Stores and Fluxes in Earth's Polar Regions (RECCAP2, Polar Ice Sheets), Wadham et al., Global Biogeochemical Cycles 10.1029/2025gb008677

An integrated framework combining multi-resolution satellite data, deep learning, and process-based modeling for urban carbon accounting, Dhawi et al., Frontiers in Environmental Science Open Access pdf 10.3389/fenvs.2026.1787442

Carbon exchange in a tropical montane rainforest: Annual budgets, drivers, and anomalies, Liu et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 10.1016/j.agrformet.2026.111049

Changes in Oceanic Carbon Storage Due to Anthropogenic Carbon Input Over the Past Three Decades, Hong & Zemskova, ATMOSPHERE-OCEAN pdf 10.1080/07055900.2026.2660361

Exploring the dynamic impact of biomass energy, deforestation, fossil fuels and green technology on greenhouse gas emissions in China, Chen & Arshad, Frontiers in Environmental Science Open Access pdf 10.3389/fenvs.2026.1695374

Greenhouse Gas Emission Characteristics and Mitigation Pathways of Wastewater Treatment Plants Based on Monthly Emission Data, Zhou et al., Greenhouse Gases Science and Technology 10.1002/ghg.70037

Impacts of historical land cover changes on carbon stocks in the Itacaiúnas River Basin, eastern Amazon, Cavalcante et al., Frontiers in Forests and Global Change Open Access pdf 10.3389/ffgc.2026.1724355

Interannual Variability of Oceanic Carbon Uptake Associated With Long-Term Sea-Ice Loss in the Western Arctic Ocean, Zhou et al., Journal of Geophysical Research Oceans 10.1029/2025jc023831

Methane exchange in a California oak savanna: insights from tree stem, soil, and ecosystem fluxes, Kasak et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology Open Access 10.1016/j.agrformet.2026.111347

Millennial-aged peat carbon outgassed by large humic lakes in the Congo Basin, Drake et al., Nature Geoscience Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41561-026-01924-3

Millennial-aged peat carbon outgassed by large humic lakes in the Congo Basin, Drake et al., Nature Geoscience Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41561-026-01924-3

Observation-constrained sensitivities of Arctic methane emissions to warming, Liu et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Open Access 10.1073/pnas.2523274123

Peak season soil GHG exchange after 23 years of ungulate exclusion in an old-growth temperate forest, Philipsen et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology Open Access pdf 10.1016/j.agrformet.2026.111329

Peat fires contribute disproportionately to Siberian fire carbon emissions, Khairoun et al., Science Advances Open Access 10.1126/sciadv.adl2368

Photosynthesis, heat, and structure: an evident hierarchy of environmental conditions driving wetland carbon assimilation, Romero et al., Remote Sensing of Environment Open Access 10.1016/j.rse.2026.115339

Projecting nitrous oxide over the 21st century, uncertainty related to stratospheric loss, Prather & Wilson, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Open Access pdf 10.1073/pnas.2524123123

Riverine woodlands as a dynamic source of the marine sedimentary carbon sink, Herzschuh et al., PNAS Nexus Open Access 10.1093/pnasnexus/pgag229

Soil black carbon decline following deforestation and farming in karst rocky desertification Southwest Guangxi, China, Zhang et al., Frontiers in Environmental Science Open Access pdf 10.3389/fenvs.2026.1706399

Spatiotemporal dynamics and driving mechanisms of carbon sequestration advantage across ecological zones: a case study from 2000 to 2023 in the Zhangjiakou–Chengde region, China, Huang et al., Frontiers in Environmental Science Open Access pdf 10.3389/fenvs.2026.1709990

Strong monsoon influence on South Asian methane emissions in 2020 revealed by a Bayesian inversion constrained by satellite observations, Subramanian et al., Atmospheric chemistry and physics Open Access pdf 10.5194/acp-26-9757-2026

Transcontinental Divergence in Soil Carbon Stock Response to Decades of Wetland Drainage, Liu et al., Global Change Biology 10.1111/gcb.70797

Unlocking the climate and market potential of China's blue carbon ecosystems, Benani et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2026.06.017

Upland Methane Sinks Under Climate Change: Global Patterns, Drivers and Trends, Cheng et al., Global Change Biology Open Access pdf 10.1111/gcb.70747

WaterLANDS: A Database of Carbon Stocks, GHG Fluxes and Biodiversity Indicators in Restored European Wetlands, Ascenzi et al., Global Ecology and Biogeography Open Access pdf 10.1111/geb.70199

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Temperature responses of ecosystem respiration, Nature Reviews Earth & Environment, 10.1038/s43017-024-00569-3 93 cites.

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CO2 capture, sequestration science & engineering

Adoption of carbon farming schemes: risk matters, Photinodellis et al., Climate Policy 10.1080/14693062.2026.2623365

Negative emissions to mitigate Earth system risks, Gasser et al., Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-026-69896-x

Optimized deployment of carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) in China's cement industry: A scenario-based analysis, Wang et al., Energy Sustainable Development/Energy for sustainable development 10.1016/j.esd.2026.101948

Temporary carbon dioxide removal to offset short-lived climate forcers, He et al., Nature Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41586-026-10607-3

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Evaluating the near- and long-term role of carbon dioxide removal in meeting global climate objectives, Communications Earth & Environment, 10.1038/s43247-024-01527-z 34 cites.

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Decarbonization

Decarbonising UK industrial clusters: the role of green finance and the risk(s) of lock-in, Finkill et al., Frontiers in Climate Open Access pdf 10.3389/fclim.2026.1836939

Decentralized solar adoption in the Global South: A comparative analytical review of pathways, trade-offs, and development outcomes, Shastri et al., Energy Sustainable Development/Energy for sustainable development 10.1016/j.esd.2026.101991

Drivers, barriers and interventions for green hydrogen supply chains: A multi-actor framework, Luukka et al., Energy Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.enpol.2026.115160

Energy intensity, offshoring and the illusion of decarbonization, Amadei et al., Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-026-74721-6

Geologic hydrogen: From natural occurrences to anthropogenic generation – A review of fundamentals, potential, challenges and prospects, Liu et al., Earth-Science Reviews 10.1016/j.earscirev.2025.105338

Intensifying research on regional decarbonization through citizen participation and communication: Insights from a Japanese case study, Hatakeyama et al., Environmental Science & Policy Open Access pdf 10.1016/j.envsci.2026.104438

Long-duration electricity storage needs for coping with Dunkelflaute events in Europe, Kittel et al., Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-026-75342-9

Scenario-based analysis of electric vehicle adoption in the United States: Technology, infrastructure, and electricity pricing, Gong et al., Energy Policy 10.1016/j.enpol.2026.115218

Selective and direct hydrogen generation from mixed plastic waste via alkaline thermal treatment with inherent carbon storage, Park et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Open Access pdf 10.1073/pnas.2537552123

Towards high resolution, validated and open global wind power assessments, Peña-Sánchez et al., JuSER Publikationsportal Open Access 10.34734/fzj-2026-00534

Understanding the resource potential of natural hydrogen on Earth: Scientific gaps, uncertainties and recommendations, Etiope et al., Earth-Science Reviews Open Access 10.1016/j.earscirev.2026.105413

Wavelet Analysis of Coastal Near-Surface Wind Speed Over China and Teleconnections to Large-Scale Climate Anomalies, Tan et al., International Journal of Climatology 10.1002/joc.70509

Wind turbines do not appear to harm health, unlike fossil power plants, Auffhammer, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 10.1073/pnas.2614642123

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Circular battery production in the EU: Insights from integrating life cycle assessment into system dynamics modeling on recycled content and environmental impacts, Journal of Industrial Ecology, 10.1111/jiec.13527 36 cites.

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Geoengineering climate

Air quality impacts of stratospheric aerosol injections are likely small and mainly driven by changes in climate, not aerosol settling, Wang et al., Atmospheric chemistry and physics Open Access pdf 10.5194/acp-26-1339-2026

Efficacy assessment of stratospheric aerosol scrubbing as a counter climate intervention strategy, Jones et al., Atmospheric chemistry and physics Open Access 10.5194/acp-26-7589-2026

Efficacy assessment of stratospheric aerosol scrubbing as a counter climate intervention strategy, Jones et al., Atmospheric chemistry and physics Open Access 10.5194/acp-26-7589-2026

Solar radiation modification in Asia: Current progress, knowledge gaps and future priorities, TANG et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access pdf 10.1016/j.accre.2026.07.005

Targeted marine cloud brightening weakens subsequent El Niño, Wan et al., Science Advances Open Access 10.1126/sciadv.adx3012

Aerosols

Asian Dust Emissions under Climate Change, Zhou et al., Journal of Climate 10.1175/jcli-d-25-0680.1

Global expansion of the sensitive aerosol-limited marine cloud regime under emission reductions, Han et al., Science Advances Open Access 10.1126/sciadv.aef9665

Reductions in Anthropogenic Aerosol and Greenhouse Gas Drive Divergent Regional Impacts on Wildfire Risks in China Under Carbon Neutrality, Yang, Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research) Open Access 10.5281/zenodo.17538507

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
How well can persistent contrails be predicted? An update, Atmospheric chemistry and physics, 10.5194/acp-24-7911-2024 20 cites.

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Climate change communications & cognition

Associations between Climate Extremes Indicators and Changes in Subjective Well-Being in China, Xu et al., Journal of Environmental Psychology 10.1016/j.jenvp.2026.103133

Backlash, Borders, and Bunkers: Critical Approaches for Research on Antidemocratic Politics and Climate Change Communication, Morris, Environmental Communication 10.1080/17524032.2025.2607041

Beyond awareness: navigating the attitude-behavior gap in climate action among urban Egyptian youth, Ead et al., Frontiers in Climate Open Access pdf 10.3389/fclim.2026.1806407

Change in flood and climate risk perceptions after the 2021 flood in Germany: A panel study, Ulrich & Kause, Journal of Environmental Psychology Open Access 10.1016/j.jenvp.2026.103129

Climate change on television reaches the engaged but misses distant audiences, Hoppe et al., Refubium (Universitätsbibliothek der Freien Universität Berlin) Open Access pmh:oai:refubium.fu-berlin.de:fub188/52246

Climate obstruction in unlikely contexts: de-thematization, scare frames, and strategic differentiation in Germany, August et al., Environmental Politics Open Access pdf 10.1080/09644016.2026.2644016

Complexities of climate change education in conflict-settings: the case of Birzeit University, Palestine, Jallad & Mukhtarova, Figshare Open Access 10.6084/m9.figshare.31375946.v1

Discourses of climate delay promoting fossil fuel extraction in Uruguay, Dorronsoro, Climate and Development 10.1080/17565529.2026.2632372

Emotional responses to state repression predict collective climate action intentions, Davies-Rommetveit et al., Nature Climate Change Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41558-026-02570-8

Exploring the Association Between Emotions and Policy Support Across Diverse Audience Segments of Climate Change, Thaker & Bhargav, Environmental Communication 10.1080/17524032.2025.2590037

How climate justice beliefs motivate youth climate action: Distinct longitudinal emotional pathways and qualitative evidence from a climate-vulnerable and non-Western context, Tabligan et al., Journal of Environmental Psychology 10.1016/j.jenvp.2026.103126

Ideology, environmental attitudes, and perceived pace of transition: explaining public acceptance of fossil fuel phase-out in Spain, Pérez-Sindín, Environmental Sociology Open Access pdf 10.1080/23251042.2026.2627449

Intraparty polarization on climate change in Republican Party discourse, 1987–2016, Bryant, Environmental Politics 10.1080/09644016.2026.2701573

Oil exploration in the Amazon Basin: narratives of disinformation and climate obstruction, Kuzuyabu & Fernandes, Global Environmental Change 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2026.103148

Perceived state capture and corruption regarding climate change: Links to mobilisation, perceptions, and climate action intentions, Zinn et al., Journal of Environmental Psychology Open Access 10.1016/j.jenvp.2026.102937

Professional Engagement With Climate Change Among Five Communities of Practice in Virginia, USA: An Exploratory Study, Myers et al., Climate Resilience and Sustainability Open Access pdf 10.1002/cli2.70029

Renewable energy discourses of fossil fuel companies: obstruction and delay of climate action, Desai et al., Energy Sustainability and Society Open Access pdf 10.1186/s13705-026-00565-z

The role of information source in climate beliefs, behavioral commitments, and policy preferences, Goldwert & Vlasceanu, Journal of Environmental Psychology 10.1016/j.jenvp.2025.102896

United we stand, divided we fall: social differences in climate efficacy and beliefs among young people in Flanders, Pauwels et al., Environmental Sociology 10.1080/23251042.2025.2592166

When algorithms decide the climate: AI, disinformation, and the crisis of environmental truth in the Anthropocene, Vidal, PLOS Climate Open Access 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000799

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Do People Respond to the Climate Impact of their Behavior? The Effect of Carbon Footprint Information on Grocery Purchases, Environmental and Resource Economics, 10.1007/s10640-024-00873-y 36 cites.

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Agronomy, animal husbundry, food production & climate change

A coupled LSTM model for predicting blue carbon and fishery dynamics in tropical coastal wetlands under climate change, Zhang et al., Scientific Reports Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41598-026-59981-y

A modelling system for identification of maize ideotypes, optimal sowing dates and nitrogen fertilization under climate change – PREPCLIM-v1, Caian et al., Geoscientific model development Open Access pdf 10.5194/gmd-19-627-2026

Bridging smallholder farmers to climate information: the role of agricultural advisors in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa, Ncoyini-Manciya & Manciya, Frontiers in Climate Open Access pdf 10.3389/fclim.2026.1746574

Carbon sequestration potential of mixed garden land use in the Gombong tropical Karst landscape of Central Java, Indonesia, Agniy et al., Discover Sustainability Open Access 10.1007/s43621-026-02894-7

Climate change, disease dynamics, and breeding responses in common bean (Phaseolus vulgaris L.) production in Tanzania: a systematic review (2005–2025), Daud et al., Frontiers in Climate Open Access pdf 10.3389/fclim.2026.1763987

Confidence and uncertainty: Small-scale, direct-marketing vegetable farmers’ relationship with climate change adaptation and mitigation, Webb et al., PLOS Climate Open Access 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000647

Confidence and uncertainty: Small-scale, direct-marketing vegetable farmers’ relationship with climate change adaptation and mitigation, Webb et al., PLOS Climate Open Access 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000647

Contrasting Warming Responses of Crops Harvested for Aboveground and Belowground Organs: A Global-Meta Analysis, Ys et al., Global Change Biology 10.1111/gcb.70996

Dual pressures of climate change and wildfire hazard on wine-growing potential in California, Hiraga & Matsumoto, Frontiers in Climate Open Access pdf 10.3389/fclim.2026.1838268

Elevated CO2 and warming intensify plant reliance on soil nitrogen reserves despite intensive fertilization, Zhu et al., Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-026-75147-w

Impact of forestry carbon sink policies on farmers’ willingness to utilize idle forest land: evidence from Fujian province, China, Tan et al., Frontiers in Forests and Global Change Open Access pdf 10.3389/ffgc.2026.1718836

Knowledge, attitudes, and practices of fisherfolk in Ghana toward climate change: A cross-sectional study, Labik et al., PLOS Climate Open Access 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000813

Living with drought: climate change perceptions, adaptation, and mitigation among farmers in rural Bangladesh, Mahedi et al., Frontiers in Climate Open Access pdf 10.3389/fclim.2026.1744133

Meta-modelling of carbon fluxes from crop and grassland multi-model outputs, Hollós et al., Geoscientific model development Open Access 10.5194/gmd-19-4385-2026

Mineral Stabilization Slows Losses of Peatland Carbon Following Long-Term Drainage for Agriculture, Faulkner et al., Apollo (University of Cambridge) Open Access pmh:oai:www.repository.cam.ac.uk:1810/405882

Pastoral resilience under threat: impacts of climate change, invasive plant species, and traditional ecological knowledge erosion in the Kashmir Himalayas, Sheergojri et al., Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability Open Access 10.1016/j.cosust.2026.101620

Reduced exposure diminishes compound extreme climate risk for rice, yet yield losses intensify across Southeast Asia, Chen et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 10.1016/j.agrformet.2026.111353

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Probabilistic analysis of drought impact on wheat yield and climate change implications, Weather and Climate Extremes, 10.1016/j.wace.2024.100708 33 cites.

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Hydrology, hydrometeorology & climate change

A depth-duration-frequency model for analysis of extreme precipitation events, with application to past and projected future climates in Ireland, O’Brien et al., Weather and Climate Extremes Open Access 10.1016/j.wace.2026.100862

Beyond Annual Averages: Multi-Scale Rainfall Variability, Drought Indicators, and Seasonal Shifts Under a Changing Climate, Wang et al., International Journal of Climatology 10.1002/joc.70330

Beyond the 100-year flood: probabilistic flood hazard assessment for King and Pierce Counties under future climate scenarios, Nederhoff et al., Natural hazards and earth system sciences Open Access 10.5194/nhess-26-3231-2026

Contrasting Changes in Rainy Season Length, Rainfall Frequency, and Intensity across Eastern Africa, Kisembe et al., White Rose Research Online (University of Leeds, The University of Sheffield, University of York) pmh:oai:eprints.whiterose.ac.uk:236346

Digital transformation in climate change management: tools for managing droughts, floods, and frost in South America: a systematic review, Arana-Ruedas et al., Frontiers in Climate Open Access 10.3389/fclim.2026.1765251

Emerging dryland flooding, Bai et al., Earth-Science Reviews 10.1016/j.earscirev.2026.105612

From stationary to non-stationary: Characterizing extreme precipitation behavior in an arid environment, Nikoo, Atmospheric Research 10.1016/j.atmosres.2026.109212

Future flood risk concentration for residents near small rivers across the USA, Jiang et al., Nature Sustainability 10.1038/s41893-026-01896-7

Glacier changes and their impact on water resources in the qilian mountains, China between 1970 and 2020, Cao et al., Frontiers in Earth Science Open Access pdf 10.3389/feart.2026.1708150

Glacier Retreat Amplifies Interannual Variability in Watershed Runoff, Organic Carbon and Nutrient Yields, Holt et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2025gl119026

Insights from Climate Tipping Point Science for the Forthcoming IPCC Seventh Assessment Report and Reflections for National Meteorological and Hydrological Services, Stocker et al., Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 10.1175/bams-d-26-0119.1

Regional Changes in Precipitation Concentration, Seasonality and Intermittency in China, Xiao-meng et al., International Journal of Climatology 10.1002/joc.70199

Seasonal characteristics and trends in precipitation partitioning in the Arctic, Cast et al., cryosphere Open Access 10.5194/tc-20-2127-2026

Synergistic effects of precipitation and phase changes intensify future rain-on-snow events in the Tianshan and Pamir regions, Central Asia, Yang et al., Weather and Climate Extremes Open Access 10.1016/j.wace.2025.100833

The opposite trends in precipitation total and extremes during two rain-seasons across Ethiopia, the Water Tower of Africa, Yate & Ren, Weather and Climate Extremes Open Access 10.1016/j.wace.2025.100813

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Modeling nonstationary intensity-duration-frequency curves for urban areas of India under changing climate, Urban Climate, 10.1016/j.uclim.2024.102065 11 cites.

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Climate change economics

Climate Change Projected to Worsen Global Economic Inequality Due To Lost Worker Productivity, Tan et al., GeoHealth Open Access 10.1029/2026gh001815

G-2 and the climate crisis: How global exports to China and the U.S. drive carbon emissions, 2000–2022, Goh & Jorgenson, PLOS Climate Open Access 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000774

Public spending on health care, education, and sanitation is linked to lower deforestation in the Peruvian Amazon: new empirical support for the climate debt framework, Ravikumar & Zhu, Global Environmental Change Open Access 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103089

Returning European Union carbon border adjustment revenues to specific products increases global welfare and reduces emissions, Zhang et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-026-03357-7

The effects of low-carbon transitions on labour productivity: analysing UK electricity, heat, and mobility with a techno-economic simulation model, Mercure et al., Climate Policy Open Access 10.1080/14693062.2025.2522836

TOWARDS RESILIENT AND INCLUSIVE CLIMATE COMPATIBLE DEVELOPMENT: A PARTICIPATORY, MIXED-METHOD SCENARIOS APPROACH FOR ZAMBIA, Hughes et al., Global Environmental Change Open Access 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103072

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Land matters: how Indigenous land restitution can inform loss and damage policy and chart a path toward an otherwise climate justice, Climate and Development, 10.1080/17565529.2024.2378027 11 cites.

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Climate change mitigation public policy research

Air travel and carbon emissions: global evidence and a UK policy evaluation, Wang, Climate Policy 10.1080/14693062.2026.2633440

Beyond geography, destiny, and politics: Exploring policy styles for industrial decarbonisation in Norway, the United Arab Emirates and the United States, Iskandarova et al., Energy Research & Social Science 10.1016/j.erss.2026.104563

Big dilemmas, little time: intergenerational climate justice and public support for deep decarbonisation, Citi & Im, Environmental Politics Open Access 10.1080/09644016.2026.2633837

Carbon emissions and subjective well-being in Blue Zone Ikaria and Athens, Greece, Radke et al., Frontiers in Climate Open Access pdf 10.3389/fclim.2025.1669144

Carbon taxes and climate action: Lessons from Mexico, Colombia, and Argentina, Muzzi & Pereda, Energy Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.enpol.2026.115191

Climate policy feasibility across Europe relies on the conditional middle, Smith et al., Nature Climate Change 10.1038/s41558-026-02562-8

Climate response to Nature Future scenarios in a regional Earth System Model, Sieber et al., Repository for Publications and Research Data (ETH Zurich) Open Access pmh:oai:www.research-collection.ethz.ch:20.500.11850/800243

Co-benefit premiums can enhance nature-based climate solutions, Hochard et al., Nature Climate Change 10.1038/s41558-026-02690-1

Commodifying carbon between reconciliation, policies and market schemes: a case study from British Columbia, Canada, Brill & Dürr, Climate Policy 10.1080/14693062.2025.2609396

Global renewable hydrogen certification: Frameworks, gaps, and policies, Hussain & Syron, Energy Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.enpol.2026.115212

Legitimizing wind energy in Brazil: power coalitions, discourse lock-in and transition dynamics, Pulice et al., Environmental Sociology 10.1080/23251042.2026.2626624

National climate action can ameliorate, perpetuate, or exacerbate international air pollution inequalities, Nawaz & Henze, Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-026-68827-0

Perspectives on Social and Justice Issues in Climate Policy – Comparing the Just Transitions, Sustainable Welfare and Eco-Social Policy Literatures, Büchs et al., Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews Climate Change Open Access pdf 10.1002/wcc.70041

Practical implementation of artificial intelligence for climate change mitigation in cities – priorities, collaborations and challenges, Hintz et al., Energy Research & Social Science Open Access 10.1016/j.erss.2025.104498

The ship has sailed: On the risk of undermining the legitimacy of EU Climate Policy through the implementation of EU ETS 2, Zapletalová, Energy Policy 10.1016/j.enpol.2026.115221

Unleashing storage by driving electric: A pathway to affordable, secure and clean energy, Palsule et al., Energy Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.enpol.2026.115138

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Substantial differences in source contributions to carbon emissions and health damage necessitate balanced synergistic control plans in China, Nature Communications, 10.1038/s41467-024-50327-8 44 cites.

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Climate change adaptation & adaptation public policy research

A climate-environmental quality screening framework for climate mitigation and adaptation portfolios: a review and action roadmap, Jew & Jiang, Frontiers in Climate Open Access pdf 10.3389/fclim.2026.1870126

Adapting and validating a subjective resilience scale to explore individual climate resilience: gendered evidence from Bhutan, Laos and Nepal, MacArthur et al., Open MIND Open Access pmh:10.6084/m9.figshare.31403852

Broadening climate migration research across impacts, adaptation and mitigation, Cattaneo et al., Nature Climate Change 10.1038/s41558-025-02545-1

Climate-adaptive urban drainage modeling: Assessing future flood hazards in Algiers, Algeria, Lameche et al., Urban Climate 10.1016/j.uclim.2026.102843

Development and piloting of the rural water supply climate-resilience monitoring tool (RWS-CRMT), Daniel et al., Climate and Development 10.1080/17565529.2025.2582560

Energy sovereignty and climate adaptation: A community model for empowering maya women in Ixil, Yucatan, Vega-Camarena et al., Environmental Science & Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.envsci.2026.104345

Energy transitions, clean fuel access and urbanization: a multi-level assessment of climate risk, Yang et al., Climate and Development 10.1080/17565529.2025.2560489

Exploring intergenerational knowledge transfer within Inuvialuit families: connecting wellbeing, food security, and climate resiliency, Prieto et al., Frontiers in Climate Open Access pdf 10.3389/fclim.2025.1694926

Numerical simulation on the thermal stability of highway embankments in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau under different climate warming rates, Xia et al., Frontiers in Earth Science Open Access pdf 10.3389/feart.2026.1886025

Overcoming local-scale climate change adaptation implementation lag, Rose et al., PLOS Climate Open Access 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000998

Prefiguring multispecies justice: how communities are challenging and transfiguring care, labour, and belonging in the midst of climate catastrophe, Sturman et al., Environmental Politics Open Access pdf 10.1080/09644016.2025.2467527

Risk Without Values: Including Indigenous Perspectives in Climate Risk Assessments, Scadden et al., Risk Analysis Open Access 10.1111/risa.70309

Supporting migration as a response to climate risk: precarity, adaptive capacity, and well-being dimensions, Tebboth et al., Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability Open Access 10.1016/j.cosust.2026.101682

The climate-electricity nexus in the GCC: How rising temperatures drive electricity demand across Gulf states, Mikayilov et al., Energy Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.enpol.2026.115490

The role of international law in governing climate-induced migration: normative gaps and policy innovations, Wen, Climate and Development 10.1080/17565529.2026.2701077

Transformational adaptation from the bottom-up: arts, alternative imaginaries, and everyday forms of resistance, Cass & Tasnim, Climate and Development 10.1080/17565529.2025.2522450

Urban parks as nature-based infrastructure for climate resilient tropical cities: Insights from cooling, carbon, and culture, Wiwoho et al., Urban Climate Open Access 10.1016/j.uclim.2026.102790

Urban water affordability crisis exacerbated by climate change, Skerker et al., Nature Sustainability Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41893-026-01890-z

Values, rules, and knowledge: Understanding and enabling land use change decisions as adaptation to climate change, Cradock-Henry et al., Environmental Science & Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.envsci.2026.104309

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Defining and conceptualizing equity and justice in climate adaptation, Global Environmental Change, 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2024.102885 61 cites.

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Climate change impacts on human health

Addressing Climate-Related Mental Health Challenges Among Children, Youth, and People Living With Disabilities: A Population Mental Health Commentary, Abadi et al., GeoHealth Open Access 10.1029/2025gh001597

Analysis of Multiple Measures of Heat Stress on Morbidity and Mortality in Louisiana, Thompson et al., Weather Climate and Society 10.1175/wcas-d-25-0060.1

BIM-PDCA framework for low-carbon hospital operation in hot-summer, warm-winter regions, Rao et al., Energy Sustainable Development/Energy for sustainable development Open Access 10.1016/j.esd.2026.101952

Climate shocks, not just warming, threaten malaria control efforts in Africa, Messina & Carrel, Nature 10.1038/d41586-026-00491-2

Impact of urbanization and global warming on sea-breeze, heat stress and cooling demand over greater Houston area, Tewari et al., Atmospheric Research 10.1016/j.atmosres.2026.108889

Projections of Heat Stress and its Impact on Labour Capacity in North America, Li et al., Figshare Open Access 10.6084/m9.figshare.31650458.v1

Public health and wellbeing under compounding climate hazards: the scale of harm is larger than we can currently see, Leppold, Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability Open Access 10.1016/j.cosust.2026.101680

Understanding Mosquito Vector Invasion Pathways: Synergistic Effects of Human Mobility, Climate and Natural Dispersal, Pardo-Araujo et al., Ecology Letters Open Access 10.1111/ele.70317

Urbanization processes widen global divergence in extreme temperature variability, Qiao et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-026-75457-z

Valuing wildfire smoke–related mortality benefits from climate mitigation, Qiu et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Open Access 10.1073/pnas.2533772123

Where heat adaptation is needed most - An open-source approach to developing a transferable heat risk index for urban planning, Rupp et al., Urban Climate Open Access 10.1016/j.uclim.2025.102769

Wildfire smoke increases assaults: evidence from Seattle, Kircheis, Environmental Research Letters Open Access 10.1088/1748-9326/ae436c

‘Water is a good thing, but when it destroys it is not good’: The influence of changing weather patterns on access to antenatal care services in Western Kenya - A qualitative study, Matanda et al., PLOS Climate Open Access 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000882

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Soil Moisture-Temperature Coupling Increases Population Exposure to Future Heatwaves, Earth s Future, 10.1029/2024ef004697 12 cites.

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Climate change & geopolitics

Climate change, extractivist infrastructure and environmental conflicts at the Northern Sea-Polar Silk Road intersection, Hana?ek et al., Energy Research & Social Science Open Access 10.1016/j.erss.2026.104600

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Strategies for promoting climate change transparency and inclusive growth through south-south climate change cooperation, Environment Development and Sustainability, 10.1007/s10668-024-05198-w 4 cites.

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Climate change impacts on human culture

Environmental impact of athletes’ diets: greenhouse gas emissions, water footprint, and sustainability awareness, Acar et al., Environmental Science and Pollution Research 10.1007/s11356-026-37459-8

Other

An analysis of energy efficiency of various ships sailing in the European Economic Area waters, Chou et al., Humanities and Social Sciences Communications Open Access pdf 10.1057/s41599-026-08173-0

Conflicts of Interest, Funding Support, and Author Affiliation in Peer-Reviewed Research on the Relationship between Climate Change and Geophysical Characteristics of Hurricanes, Weinkle et al., Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 10.1175/bams-d-24-0260.1

Earth's Infrared Background: A Physics-Based Null Hypothesis for the Global-Scale Subannual Variability of Outgoing Longwave Radiation, Shamir & Gerber, Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2026gl123697

Role of the Atmospheric Circulation in the Observed Warming Over Europe Using a Neural Network, Cariou et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2026gl121861

The Populationist Climate Futures Industry: NGO SF Capital, Eco-emotions and Speculative Ecofascism, Iossifidis, Environmental Communication 10.1080/17524032.2025.2601613

Translating urban climate research into practice: Practitioner evidence from Hong Kong on formats, barriers and adoption, Lee & Ng, Urban Climate 10.1016/j.uclim.2026.102850

Volcanoes and wildfires contributed to increased stratospheric humidification, [authors did not process], Nature Open Access 10.1038/d41586-026-02011-8

When models outrun politics: Biofuels as a stress test for scenario plausibility, Hedenus, Energy Research & Social Science Open Access 10.1016/j.erss.2026.104840

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Gender diversity and climate disclosure: a tcfd perspective, Environment Development and Sustainability, 10.1007/s10668-024-05203-2 9 cites.

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Informed opinion, nudges & major initiatives

As we breach 1.5 °C, we must replace temperature limits with clean-energy targets, Quagraine et al., Nature 10.1038/d41586-026-00246-z

US climate actions must continue, despite setbacks, Widawsky, Nature 10.1038/d41586-026-00660-3

Vulnerability of marine megafauna to global at-sea anthropogenic threats, VanCompernolle et al., Conservation Biology 10.1111/cobi.70147

We need a global assessment of avoidable climate-change risks, Stott et al., Nature 10.1038/d41586-026-00544-6

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Aquatic deoxygenation as a planetary boundary and key regulator of Earth system stability, Nature Ecology & Evolution, 10.1038/s41559-024-02448-y 45 cites.

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Book reviews

Apocalyptic authoritarianism: climate crisis, media, and power, Poberezhskaya, Environmental Politics 10.1080/09644016.2026.2629722

Articles/Reports from Agencies and Non-Governmental Organizations Addressing Aspects of Climate Change

Draft Strategic Energy Assessment 2026-2032, Public Service Commission of Wisconsin

The biennial Strategic Energy Assessment (SEA) provides information to evaluate Wisconsin’s current and future electricity supply. The SEA provides this evaluation in the context of four primary goals maintained by Wisconsin electricity providers and the Commission including adequate electric supply that maintains sufficient total power to meet customers’ total electric demand (i.e. resource adequacy); reliable electric supply that provides all customers access to electricity at all times, avoiding outages whenever possible; affordable electric supply that offers adequate and reliable energy at the lowest feasible cost for customers; and environmentally responsible electric supply that minimizes the negative effects of electric generation on the natural environment.

Cheaper. Cleaner. Unstoppable. Clean technologies that are delivering for the climate, James Haselip and Lakshmi Bhamidipati, United Nations Environment Program

At a time when climate risks are intensifying, this policy briefs highlights a powerful and hopeful shift: many clean solutions are no longer niche—they are becoming the new normal. Across energy, transport, buildings and food systems, “positive tipping points” are emerging. As costs fall, technologies scale, and public support grows, adoption is accelerating in self reinforcing ways. Solar power, electric mobility, and sustainable cooling are proving that climate action can be economically competitive, socially beneficial and globally scalable. This report shows that the transition is not only possible—it is already underway. With the right policies, investments and partnerships, we can amplify these positive tipping points, unlock cascading benefits, and deliver a future that is more resilient, equitable and sustainable.

Battery Geopolitics: Balancing Industrial Power in the Race to Store Energy, Milo McBride, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

The United States and Europe will provide the essential playing field for diversification because they have the largest battery markets outside of China. However, much of the current capacity is tied to incumbent nickel-cobalt supply lines, and it is important that the prospective capacity is developed as new battery chemistries, which could prevent technology lock-in and abate mineral supply risks in the long term. Policymakers should wield market access as a pragmatic tool for resilience and broader diversification; for example, partnering with Chinese firms for anode materials where few alternative producers exist while ensuring that other Asian players in battery cells continue to grow and innovate. If the United States and Europe are committed to scaling domestic battery companies and indigenizing midstream materials, this will require coordinated support measures ranging from trade barriers and local-content rules to targeted subsidies that help cover operating costs during scaling as well as a clear agenda to support factory efficiency. Efforts to bring new battery cells or materials to market might benefit from joint ventures with companies capable of delivering gigawatt-hour scale, which start-ups are currently struggling to achieve.

Taming Data Center Turmoil: Hyperscalers Push Electricity Markets to Their Limits, Climate Cabinet Education

Over the past century, states have built and finely tuned a regulatory apparatus to manage the power sector. These frameworks were designed for a world of gradual, predictable load growth. Today, hyperscale data centers are breaking the system. They are upending every assumption those frameworks depend on, faster than regulators can respond. More than 300 bills were introduced across 30 states in the first six weeks of 2026, underscoring the recognition that the existing guidelines are being overwhelmed, as well as the struggle to keep pace with hyperscale demand. A system best equipped to manage tidal flows is facing a tsunami. This unprecedented situation is occurring because hyperscalers are causing multiple conditions to converge, creating challenges no regulatory framework was designed to manage simultaneously including facilities large enough that a single exit can fundamentally alter project financials and who pays for them; 5–10 year contracts for infrastructure built to last 30 years, creating years of uncertainty after contracts expire; dedicated assets with little or no alternative use; hyperscale developer-supplied electricity demand forecasts, shaped by a financial interest in approval and, thus, far from impartial; and pressure to build new natural gas systems, locking in decades of climate pollution.

Taming Data Center Turmoil: The Rise of the Hyperscalers, Climate Cabinet Education

For most of the past century, electricity demand grew predictably. Utilities could plan for gradual increases across homes, offices, and factories with high confidence. Traditional growth was steady, measured in single-digit annual percentages, and closely linked to local economies. Hyperscale energy loads (data centers, cloud facilities), however, are rewriting this rulebook. A single facility can consume as much power as 100,000 homes, and clusters of centers can add multiple gigawatts of concentrated, rapid, and globally mobile demand within just a few years. Unlike traditional industries, these facilities can appear almost overnight, challenging the slow, predictable pace of electricity planning.

Climate Change in the American Mind: Beliefs & Attitudes, Spring 2026, Leiserowitz et al., Yale University and George Mason University

Americans who think global warming is happening outnumber those who think it is not by a ratio of more than 4 to 1 (68% versus 16%). By a margin of more than 2 to 1, Americans are more likely to think global warming is mostly human-caused (59%) than to think it is mostly caused by natural changes in the environment (27%). 66% of Americans say they are at least “somewhat worried” about global warming, including 29% who say they are “very worried.” 59% of Americans think global warming is affecting weather in the United States, including 35% who think weather is being affected “a lot.” 13% of Americans have considered moving to avoid the impacts of global warming.

One Year Since the One Big Beautiful Bill: An Economic Impact Analysis Of America’s Clean Economy, BW Research Partnership, Economy and Environment

The authors detail the far-reaching economic effects of clean energy investments cancelled by the private sector since the federal government began its attempts to slow or halt the growth of clean energy beginning in January 2025. The author's modeling shows that since January 1, 2025, large-scale clean energy manufacturing and generation projects canceled in the wake of this shift in US energy policy have cost the future US economy 468,000 jobs, including more than 343,000 permanent jobs and 125,000 construction jobs; $55 billion in lost GDP growth annually from cancelled manufacturing plants and other operations, in addition to $91 billion lost from cancelled construction work; $12 billion foregone in annual tax revenue for federal, state, and local governments, in addition to nearly $20 billion in lost tax revenues just from construction activities; and $31 billion in lost annual wages for permanent workers.

National Transmission Needs Study (Draft), Office of Electricity, Department of Energy

The needs study provides a comprehensive assessment of current and future transmission needs within and across geographic regions of the U.S. The definition of electric transmission need used in this study includes the existence of present or expected electric transmission capacity constraints or congestion in a geographic area. Geographic areas where a transmission need exists would benefit from an upgraded, uprated, or new transmission facility—including alternative solutions—to improve the reliability and resilience of the power system; alleviate transmission congestion and unscheduled flows; alleviate power transfer capacity limits between neighboring regions; deliver cost-effective generation to meet demand; and/or meet projected future generation, electricity demand, or reliability requirements. The needs study includes an analysis of transmission system operational data (informed by publicly available information) and a review of more than 120 recently published reports. The purpose of this study is not to prescribe particular solutions to issues faced by the nation’s power sector, but rather to assess need in order for industry and the public to suggest the best possible solutions for addressing them in a timely manner. There is a pressing need for additional transmission infrastructure due to load growth. Increasing interregional transmission is increasingly recognized for its multifold benefits to consumers. Many regional entities are approving their largest transmission portfolios.

Military climate strategies: Are they just greenwash?, Stuart Parkinson, Scientists for Global Responsibility

The author examines the carbon reduction plans for the militaries of 26 nations, mainly from Europe and North America. The findings give much cause for concern. They show that most military emissions within these 26 nations are not covered by any specific targets, most of the targets that do exist are unambitious, and most of the emission reduction achieved to date has relied on civilian action (especially decarbonization of national electricity grids), temporary reductions in military activity, or military base closure programs. Worse, the emission reduction that has occurred now looks like it will be overwhelmed due to massive rises in military spending.

Energy Superabundance: Unlocking Prosperity in the West initiative, Western Governors Association

In a year-long initiative featuring four workshops hosted by Utah Governor Cox, Arizona Governor Katie Hobbs, Colorado Governor Jared Polis, and Idaho Governor Brad Little industry experts, thought leaders, and policymakers examined various challenges and opportunities for achieving energy superabundance across the region through expanded and improved energy production, transmission, and storage. The authors highlight key issues explored during the workshops and present federal policy recommendations developed from those discussions to help plan, finance, develop, and deploy energy projects across the West.

Levelized Cost of Energy, Lazard

Renewables remain the lowest cost new-build generation; all generation faces increasing cost pressure. Unprecedented demand reinforces the need for diverse generation and thoughtful acceleration of permitting/approval processes. There is an increasing competitiveness of existing generation. Storage costs have increased reversing recent declines.

A Significant Moment in the Colorado River Water Supply Crisis, Schmidt et al., Getches-Wilkinson Center, University of Colorado, Boulder

On Sunday, July 12, the surface of Lake Powell was 3524.32 feet above sea level, and the surface of Lake Mead was at 1042.77 ft.7 These elevations equated to 5,505,869 and 7,169,640 acre feet (af), respectively, of live storage in the two reservoirs. The combined total live storage of these reservoirs was 12,675,509 af. The last time the combined total live storage in Lake Powell and Lake Mead was this small was May 23, 1957, during construction of Glen Canyon Dam when the entire amount of 12,668,000 af was stored in Lake Mead. These two reservoirs are the largest in the United States and hold slightly less than 60% of total amount of water presently stored in the Basin. Every day going forward, until runoff from the 2026-2027 winter snowpack begins next spring, a new record low will likely be set. This is a significant moment in the evolving Colorado River water supply crisis.

GST in NDCs. How the first Global Stocktake is reflected in the NDCs, Beuermann et al., German Environment Agency

The authors evaluate the extent to which the mitigation-related outcomes of the first Global Stocktake (GST) of the Paris Agreement have been integrated into subsequent Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs). The authors examine whether Parties are explicitly referencing the GST as a guiding framework or are merely aligning with its thematic area, e.g. renewable energy, fossil fuel transition. The findings suggest that the GST has signaled priority areas, yet the extent of the integration of GST outcomes into national planning processes greatly varies.

Rush. Global Scramble for Minerals Wages War on People and Planet, Frédéric Mousseau and Andy Currie, The Oakland Institute

As governments and corporations scramble to secure critical minerals, the authors expose the forces fueling today’s unprecedented mining boom. They dismantle the dominant narrative that massive amounts of minerals are needed for the energy transition, revealing instead a potent convergence of political, military, and corporate interests racing to control the resources that underpin modern warfare and artificial intelligence. To justify a massive scale up of mineral extraction, governments, corporations, and international financial institutions like the World Bank, frame critical minerals as indispensable to the green transition and as a pathway to prosperity for the Global South. However, the authors document that more than 70 percent of critical mineral demand today comes from industries unrelated to the energy transition, including the automotive, aerospace, military, communications, and technology sectors. Rapid growth in artificial intelligence, data centers, surveillance technologies, and military spending is expected to increase this demand massively. About New Research

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This is a re-post from Yale Climate Connections by Bridgett Ennis

s the prices of home battery systems fall, they’re becoming a key part of the modern electric grid. They can help homeowners store power from rooftop solar panels or the grid for use during outages or periods of high demand. And they can reduce strain on the grid during heat waves when electricity demand soars.

In this interview with Yale Climate Connections, Raghu Belur, the chief products officer for Enphase Energy, explains how home battery systems can lower utility bills and create backup power during grid failures. He also says that batteries, including the batteries in electric vehicles, may one day make it possible for utilities to use power from many small sources to maintain a more reliable grid. 

This interview has been edited for clarity and length. 

Yale Climate Connections: Could you explain what a home battery is, how it works, and the benefits it provides customers? 

Raghu Belur: The beauty of the battery is it can do a few different things. The home – which traditionally has been only a consumer of energy – is actually producing its own energy with solar on the roof. One of the limitations to solar is that it’s an intermittent resource – we don’t have solar at night – so the best way to actually maximize the utilization or the usability of solar is to add a battery. 

The second use case is you can actually sell energy back to the grid [in some places]. When there is a lot of demand on the grid and you have all these stored electrons, those electrons are very valuable for yourself as well as for the grid. So you as a prosumer – a producer and a consumer – can sell that energy to the grid and actually make money. 

The third use case for that battery is, of course, if the grid were to fail. So when the grid goes out, these batteries can create a microgrid and power the home. The whole process is seamless: It senses that the grid is gone, takes over, and runs the home on the energy that it has saved so the homeowner wouldn’t even know that the grid is gone. 

YCC: How do batteries help provide resiliency for homeowners during power outages or extreme weather? 

Belur: We are living in times where 100-year storms are the norm now. We also have to deal with things like forest fires. Usually, if there’s a storm or winter event, it lasts for a finite period of time, and the sun eventually does come out. So if you have solar and a battery, then you can ride through a multiday outage. 

And the deployment of solar and batteries is going to become more and more critical, especially as the demand in the overall infrastructure is going up significantly. The electrical demand on homes is going up substantially – you’re seeing homes getting electrified, with everything from heat pumps, induction ovens, EVs. 

But that’s not all the story. Massive demand on the utility is coming from the hyperscalers, from the AI data centers as well. 

So addressing the demand on the residential side, with deploying more and more batteries, is massively beneficial for everybody because they can help alleviate some of the stress that the grid feels as a result of all that demand that’s coming from the data center side. 

YCC: How common is it to deploy batteries on homes that don’t have solar? 

Learn more: Find out which climate action best fits into your life.

Belur: It’s not that common, but I don’t see a reason why that cannot become a trend. Solar used to be the point of entry for [a home energy] system, but an EV is also a very large battery. So we can not only intelligently charge your EV, but [with a bidirectional EV charger] you can also discharge your EV to support the grid, provide grid resiliency, or you can use the EV to power your home in the event of an outage. So you’ll find that there will be a lot of deployments where people use their car as the battery, and that’s the only thing that they have – and we believe that an EV will be the point of entry into that energy system for a lot of people. 

Read: When the power went out, an electric car kept the AC running

If you look at the way technology evolves over the long run, it decentralizes. If you think about mainframes, 40 or 50 years ago, people used to have mainframe computers – that was the norm. That’s where all the intelligence was, and all the decision-making happened there. Today we have arguably much more intelligence in our laptops and in our phones, and so we have decentralized that intelligence. 

I believe the same thing is going to happen with energy as well. Historically, all the power production or generation of energy has been centralized – you’ve got big hydroelectric plants, nuclear plants, gas-powered plants, coal plants, and large-scale solar, large-scale wind. 

What we are seeing now is this decentralization or distribution of energy, where the home is becoming the unit of intelligence. It’s the one that produces its own energy, stores and consumes [energy] intelligently, and can also optimize not only for the homeowner’s needs but also provide resiliency to the grid by exporting electrons into the grid. 

YCC: We’re seeing rising energy prices. When we talk about consumers, whether they’re leasing or buying these battery systems, what does all of this mean for consumers’ bills? 

Belur: Here’s this opportunity for the homeowner to become a prosumer – produce your own energy, consume your own energy, manage your own energy intelligently – so you can optimize your bill as well as provide resiliency. It’s a way to hedge against future energy rate increases. Depending on the location, for example, you can have a payback period of as low as four to five years. Four to five years, your energy system pays off because what you’re offsetting is a very large utility bill.

Then other places may take seven to eight years, but you’re looking at a 25-year asset. When you’re looking at a 25-year asset, a payback period from anywhere from four to eight years, that’s not too bad because once I’ve paid off my system, because I’ve offset my consumption – and by the way, my rates don’t go up – it’s my own system. 

I think it makes absolute sense that people should deploy their own energy system within their home. Of course, solar is kind of the hero of the show. That’s what this is all about, but you do need solar. You need batteries. You need EV chargers. You need software to manage everything, and you can create a tremendous amount of value and shrink that payback period down even further.

YCC: What needs to happen to scale up this approach to reach those low-income consumers who might not be able to afford to make these investments up front? 

Belur: Investors look for some level of certainty, and this is an asset class that the investment community is starting to get very comfortable with because the default rates are very low. So you’re seeing more and more dollars being invested into deploying more of these systems, because not a lot of people are defaulting on their loans, because what is their alternative? It’s not a luxury. Energy is a necessity. 

The place where things are a little uncertain is all of these government regulations changing. Whatever decision the government makes regarding whether there is going to be tax incentives or no tax incentives, those decisions need to happen quickly so you bring stability into the market. 

Read: Trump just gave a huge gift to China’s economy

In the long run, I believe that incentives should be a catalyst and not a crutch. We know we have the technology capabilities, so let’s get some of these government uncertainties out of the way and let our industry do what it does best: Deliver great economics, great value to the homeowner, and the finance industry will love that because it’s a strong asset class. It’s got low default rates, and we know we’ll always need energy.