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Fact brief - Does solar development eliminate more U.S. jobs than it creates?

Tue, 11/10/2026 - 07:32

Skeptical Science is partnering with Gigafact to produce fact briefs — bite-sized fact checks of trending claims. You can submit claims you think need checking via the tipline.

Does solar development eliminate more U.S. jobs than it creates?

Solar development creates more jobs per unit of energy than other modes of production, and projections indicate more jobs will be created by renewables than lost.

There are currently 1.84 times more jobs in solar than in coal, gas, and oil combined. Solar is relatively labor intensive, requiring workers for installation, maintenance, and project development, while fossil fuel production has become increasingly automated. Many solar jobs cannot be outsourced abroad.

A 2023 federal report predicted 3 million new solar, wind, and grid expansion jobs by 2050 in a scenario of widespread electrification, while fewer than 1 million fossil fuel jobs were projected to disappear.

The transition will require support for affected workers and communities. Research finds fossil fuel workers often have skills transferable to renewable energy jobs. However, programs supporting worker relocation and region-targeted incentives for development and manufacturing will be important for easing the transition in industry-dependent communities.

Go to full rebuttal on Skeptical Science or to the fact brief on Gigafact

This fact brief is responsive to quotes such as this one.

Sources

EFI Foundation Wages, Benefits, and Change

U.S. Global Change Research Program Fifth National Climate Assessment

U.S. Department of Energy UNITED STATES ENERGY & EMPLOYMENT REPORT 2023

IREC Solar Jobs Census

World Economic Forum How can fossil fuel workers be supported in transitioning to green jobs?

World Resources Institute Steps to Aid US Fossil Fuel Workers in the Clean Energy Transition 

Columbia Law School Sabin Center for Climate Change Law Rebutting 33 False Claims About Solar, Wind, and Electric Vehicles

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About fact briefs published on Gigafact

Fact briefs are short, credibly sourced summaries that offer "yes/no" answers in response to claims found online. They rely on publicly available, often primary source data and documents. Fact briefs are created by contributors to Gigafact — a nonprofit project looking to expand participation in fact-checking and protect the democratic process. See all of our published fact briefs here.

Categories: I. Climate Science

Missing the boat on extreme event attribution

Mon, 11/09/2026 - 12:10

This is a re-post from The Climate Brink by Andrew Dessler

There is a PR campaign underway against extreme event attribution, the science of determining how much human-caused climate change contributed to a particular heat wave, flood, or storm.

Everybody should understand what’s going on here. Fossil fuel interests and their proxies are attacking extreme event attribution because it’s a threat to their business model. Their goal is simple: they are trying to maintain their social license to dump carbon into the atmosphere.

Background on the science

For a long time, the standard line from climate science was that you can’t attribute any single event to climate change. That was fine with fossil-fuel interests because, when damaging extreme weather occurred, they could argue: “Sure, climate change is real, but you can’t say anything about this particular storm that flooded a city. So we bear no responsibility.”

That began to change in 2003, when Myles Allen published a commentary in Nature titled Liability for Climate Change, floating the idea that we might someday be able to say how much human influence had changed the odds of a particular event.

A year later, Stott et al. published the first study of this kind, concluding that human influence had at least doubled the probability of the 2003 European heatwave, which killed tens of thousands. Two decades on, attribution studies are routine, and they can often be done within days of an event.

In July, the National Academies of Sciences (NAS) released a report on extreme event attribution, concluding that the methods have improved considerably, with the most confidence for extreme heat and heavy rainfall.

If you’re interested in learning more about this field, read this post I wrote a few months ago on the topic.

The pushback

When the report came out, there was a concerted effort by climate misinformers and their enablers to slime the report and the entire field more generally. These arguments are mainly personal attacks on scientists and accusations that scientists are pushing a political agenda.

There is almost no actual critiquing of the science.

A good example is a video from a popular science communicator, Dr. Sabine Hossenfelder. I’ve seen a number of Hossenfelder’s videos and generally like them. For example, I really liked her video on John Clauser, the Nobel Prize–winning physicist turned climate skeptic. She took Clauser’s arguments head-on and explained clearly where they go wrong.

Which is why her new video on extreme event attribution is so disappointing. She misses the boat here by attacking scientists’ motivations and crediblity rather than substantially engaging with the science.

She starts with some quotes from people on reddit, as if that’s proof of anything. Seriously, you don’t believe the National Academies but you do believe literal internet randos.

She’s literally quoting random people on the internet.

She also quotes a news article from the late 2010s where a prominent scientist working on extreme event attribution, Dr. Fredi Otto, says that she often talks to lawyers about the science.

slide from Hossenfelder’s video, link to article where quote can be found

This is, Hossenfelder implies, a gotcha. Otto talks to lawyers. You don’t know what she tells them, but I suppose it looks bad.

She also quotes a string of prominent critics but never tells her viewers who these people are. Let me fill you in.

Steven Koonin is a senior fellow at the Hoover Institution at Stanford, an extreme right-wing think tank and a well-known source of climate disinformation. Koonin also spent five years as the chief scientist of an oil company, BP. Roger Pielke Jr. is affiliated with the American Enterprise Institute, another right-wing Washington think tank.

Koonin and Judith Curry were two of the five people hand-picked by Energy Secretary Chris Wright to write the Department of Energy’s climate report last year. It is a deceitful report that was basically fossil fuel propaganda.

She also cites a letter from 25 Republican state attorneys general as evidence about attribution science. Normally, I would assume that anyone citing Republican politicians on the validity of climate science was being ironic, but I don’t think that’s the case here.

Screenshot from Hossenfelder video where she says, without irony, that Republican Attorneys General don’t like attribution science

Hossenfelder never mentions that these conflicts are IMHO much larger than Otto’s talking to lawyers. That seems like a pretty big problem with her video.

The science, such as it is

Let me repeat: almost all of the arguments against extreme event attribution are like this. They rarely address the science, because the science is not that complicated. Instead, they spin conspiracy theories about scientists doing the analysis.

We should stop criticizing people for their affiliations or who they talk to and start critiquing their scientific arguments (or lack thereof).

For example, Hossenfelder does eventually make a scientific argument. About four minutes in, she says:

My main beef is though that the probability you get will depend on how you define the event. The more details you add about the event, the less likely it will become until eventually you are comparing zero to zero. There is pretty good evidence that climate change does impact trends of certain extreme events. But making definite statements about the counterfactual probability of a particular event not occurring is, in my opinion, ill-defined mathematical nonsense. There is no amount of equations that will make this fundamental problem go away. It’s not that I think climate change doesn’t happen or that I think it’s not man-made or that we shouldn’t worry about it. I think this event attribution business is bad maths.

Wait, what? To me, this argument amounts to “it doesn’t sound right, so it’s wrong.” I call this vibes-based science.

It’s the same reasoning you hear from climate deniers who say that carbon dioxide going from 0.03% of our atmosphere to 0.04% can’t possibly affect our climate because it’s such a small number.

It’s basing science on how it feels, not on actual physics.

So here’s my challenge to Hossenfelder and everyone else: Stop attacking scientists and focus on the science.

If Hossenfelder thinks that these studies don’t define the events correctly, then please give me an example. There are lots of papers out there, so find one and explain how they’ve defined the event in such a way that they are guaranteed to get one particular result.

Maybe Hossenfelder can make a good argument. If so, I welcome it. This is how science works. People publish, other people criticize, and the science gets better. But the focus has to be on the science, not on whether a scientist talked to a lawyer.

The true heroes & the true conspiracy

Attribution science is a new field and it is rapidly advancing. I think the people working in this area (not me, by the way) are heroes. They are putting up with harassment by fossil fuel interests and having their credibility impugned by some of the worst people in the world.

Anyone paying attention should recognize the playbook being run here. We’ve seen it before with tobacco, and there are entire books documenting how it works. The strategy is simple: libel the scientists, exaggerate uncertainties, and convince the public that the science is too unsettled to justify action.

Exactly what we see today happening to extreme event attribution science.

This doesn’t mean attribution science should be immune from criticism. Scientific scrutiny is a key part of science. But these are not good-faith scientific criticisms. Instead, it’s a campaign to undermine science and boost powerful economic interests.

The tobacco playbook worked for decades. Fossil-fuel interests are betting it will keep working. Don’t fall for it.

Categories: I. Climate Science

2026 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #45

Sun, 11/08/2026 - 07:42
A listing of 28 news and opinion articles we found interesting and shared on social media during the past week: Sun, November 1, 2026 thru Sat, November 7, 2026. Stories we promoted this week, by category:

Climate Policy and Politics (11 items)

Climate Change Impacts (4 items)

Climate Law and Justice (3 items)

Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation (2 items)

Climate Science and Research (2 items)

  • Collective human metabolism produces 2 billion metric tons of CO? a year, global study estimates A new study led by the University of Bath estimates that carbon dioxide production from human metabolism increased by 74% between 1985 and 2015, reaching 2.05 billion metric tons annually. The researchers found that the dramatic rise was primarily the result of population growth, rather than a substantial increase in how much CO2 each person produces. Phys.org, University of Bath , Nov 01, 2026.
  • Skeptical Science New Research for Week #45 2026 Our latest new climate research collection includes 140 articles in 63 academic journals by 921 contributing authors plus 13 government and NGO reports on matters of climate change and climate change impacts. Skeptical Science, Doug Bostrom & Marc Kodack, Nov 05, 2026.

International Climate Conferences and Agreements (2 items)

Miscellaneous (2 items)

Climate Education and Communication (1 item)

  • A really simple guide to climate change A five-minute ramp to understanding major features of human-caused climate change and why it's important. BBC News, Mark Poynting and Alex Brian, Nov 06, 2026.

Public Misunderstandings about Climate Science (1 item)

If you happen upon high quality climate-science and/or climate-myth busting articles from reliable sources while surfing the web, please feel free to submit them via this Google form so that we may share them widely. Thanks!
Categories: I. Climate Science

Skeptical Science New Research for Week #45 2026

Thu, 11/05/2026 - 09:59
Open access notables

Evidence from 2024 Storm Boris indicates anthropogenic climate change amplifies floods more than extreme precipitation, Miersch et al., Science Advances

Anthropogenic climate change intensifies extreme precipitation, but how it affects flood hazards remains uncertain. In September 2024, Storm Boris triggered catastrophic flooding across central Europe, underscoring the need to quantify the contribution of human-caused climate change to flood intensity for effective risk management. Using a storyline approach, we show that precipitation associated with Storm Boris would have been 6 to 9% lower in the absence of anthropogenic climate change, whereas flood peaks would, on average, have been reduced by 14 to 22%. Our estimates are based on nudged simulations from two climate models coupled with two hydrological models across hundreds of affected catchments. The results imply that anthropogenic forcing amplified flood peaks by a factor of 2.1 to 2.9 relative to the increase in event precipitation. Overall, we demonstrate that attributing precipitation alone would substantially underestimate flood hazard amplification from climate change—an effect that should inform future risk assessments and loss estimates.

Increase of tropical cyclone-induced coastal flooding due to historical sea level rise, Mengel et al., Environmental Research Letters

Surges from tropical cyclones (TCs) cause significant damage in coastal areas. However, the contribution of historical sea level rise (SLR) to surge heights and thus the flooded areas has not been quantified on a global scale. Here, we use an open-source shallow water equation solver to estimate the impact of historical SLR on coastal flooding induced by all historical TCs with landfall from 1950 to 2025, according to the International Best Tracks Archive. We isolate the SLR effect through the comparison of factual simulations accounting for observed changes in sea level to counterfactual simulations without long term trends in sea levels. Results show that SLR has steadily increased the coastal area affected by TC-induced surges, from about 5% in 1950–1954 assuming mean tide levels (7% and 5% for minimum and maximum tide levels, respectively) to about 18% in 2021–2025 (22% and 13% for minimum and maximum tide levels, respectively) in comparison to the areas affected without SLR. The increase differs along coastlines, with maxima in relative increases of surge flooding along the North American Atlantic coastline and the Southeast Asian coastline. To put the numbers into perspective, we also estimate the associated increases assuming 1 m of local SLR and no changes in TC tracks and wind fields, reaching 146% under mean tide assumptions (192% for minimum tide levels and 92% for maximum tide levels). Results show that this is higher than expected assuming a linear relationship between SLR and relative increases in flood extents. Our analysis demonstrates the significant increase in flood extent induced by SLR already today. The generated data sets of factual and counterfactual coastal flooding extend ISIMIP3a climate-related forcing data, allowing for the evaluation and attribution of additional coastal impacts.

Incivility in public health policy discussions spills over to public engagement with climate issues: evidence from English-language social media, Narimanzadeh et al., Environmental Research Letters

Affective polarization and political sorting drive public antagonism around climate change and other issues at the science-policy nexus. We study cross-domain spillover of incivility in public engagements with climate change and public health on English-language Twitter and Reddit using the COVID-19 period as a case study. To assess whether spillover exists between these two policy domains, we examined how the incivility of climate discussions on social media varied by their co-occurrence with COVID-19 content and temporal coincidence with pandemic events. We find strong evidence of the signatures of affective polarization surrounding COVID-19 spilling into the climate change domain. Across different social media systems, COVID-19 content is associated with incivility in climate discussions. These patterns of increased antagonism were responsive to pandemic events that made the link between science and public policy more salient. We also looked at how climate discussions about international organizations and elites changed with the pandemic’s onset to show that the observed incivility spillover activated along overlapping pre-pandemic political cleavages, specifically anti-internationalist populist beliefs that linked climate policy opposition to vaccine hesitancy. Our findings show how affective polarization in public engagement with science becomes entrenched across policy domains, which has implications for how the public engages with and communicates about issues such as climate change and public health.

Public support for net-zero climate policy packages under political party cues, Hoyle et al., Environmental Politics

Despite widespread climate change mitigation pledges, effective policy implementation faces persistent political opposition. This study investigates how political party cues shape public support for multi-sectoral climate policy mixes, and whether distinct audience segments and levels of issue salience moderate these effects. We conducted a conjoint experiment with 1,201 Canadian adults who evaluated policy packages varying across regulations and support policies for transportation and housing, and party endorsements. Latent class analysis identified five distinct audience segments. Three main findings emerged. First, party cues were more influential than the contents of proposed policy packages. Second, despite heterogeneity across segments, rejection of government inaction and broad support for ‘bridge policies’ revealed unexpected consensus. Third, issue salience provided minimal insulation against party cue effects. Results suggest that in Canada’s polarized context, political messenger strategy may prove as consequential as policy design for building public support.

The cultural politics of risk: egalitarian civil society opposition to solar radiation modification, Guivant et al., Environmental Research Climate

Solar radiation modification (SRM) has become a focus of climate research and governance debate. While much of the governance literature addresses scientific assessment, responsible research, participation, and multilateral oversight, less attention has been paid to how civil society actors shape what counts as legitimate governance. This article examines how the ETC Group and allied actors construct opposition to SRM. Drawing on Cultural Theory of Risk, sociotechnical imaginaries, and interpretive discourse analysis of public materials from 2008 to 2025, it reconstructs a predominantly egalitarian repertoire organized around the vulnerability of nature and affected communities, distrust of concentrated expertise and corporate power, and claims concerning consent, sovereignty, and environmental justice. Hierarchical, individualist, and fatalist registers are incorporated into this repertoire in distinct ways: authority is affirmed when it supports limits, private initiative marks the adversary, and lock-in supplies the warning scenario. Three practices give this politics of refusal coherence: translating soft law into non-use, contesting field experiments as steps toward normalization, and constructing counter-expertise. The analysis shows that this position has political force because it exposes risks of normalization and concentrated authority. It also has crucial governance limits, narrowing the space in which research, assessment, participation, and Southern agency can be distinguished and debated.

From this week's government/NGO section:

Planetary Power: Geoengineering and the New Geopolitics of Climate Intervention, Olivia Lazard, editor, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

Geoengineering is becoming a geopolitical question as much as a climate one. The way states and the private sector pursue these technologies, assess risks, and drive research increasingly appears focused on gaining a strategic edge. In a field where governance in lagging behind, Europe should keep track of the geopolitical implications if it is to develop effective regulatory frameworks. This compilation seeks to shift the focus away from evaluating hypothetical technologies and stylized strategic dilemmas and toward an understanding of the countries and actors that are developing, might use, and will have to govern these technologies. As such, the series is an important addition to existing analysis of climate intervention. The six articles ask what several key actors—nation-states and globally influential industries—think of geoengineering. How do they categorize the various approaches? What are their interests in having these still-hazy technological capabilities available for their own use or that of others? What are their goals and concerns? What interests and abilities do they have as developers, decisionmakers, or instigators of technologies, institutions, or governance approaches?

Coal Costs Americans: Tracking expensive giveaways to coal plants, Environmental Defense Fund

The Trump administration is propping up aging and unreliable coal plants that emit vast amounts of harmful air pollutants – even as it attempts to slow or block the construction of cleaner and more affordable sources of power. Americans are paying with their wallets and their health. The U.S. still has 184 coal-fired power plants operating across 39 states. Coal plants release mercury, heavy metals, and soot into the air, water, and food. The Trump administration is exploiting a variety of federal mechanisms to prop up 90 coal plants (189 units) in the U.S. That’s almost half of all grid-connected coal plants in the country. In 2025, the Trump administration handed out unlawful Clean Air Act exemptions to 154 units across 70 coal plants. The Department of Energy has committed $950 million in taxpayer dollars to prop up 24 coal plants, including helping finance two new plants and helping bring one retired plant back online. Under a Federal Power Act provision meant for true emergencies, the Department of Energy has repeatedly ordered 6 coal plants to keep operating past their retirement dates, in some cases for over a year.

Most voters believe climate change threatens the American Dream, Data for Progress, Grist

Voters view climate change itself as a problem for their aspirations. Fifty-eight percent of likely U.S. voters believe that the warming climate will hinder their ability to achieve or maintain the American Dream over the next 20 years — including 42 percent of Republicans. The typical elements of the American Dream — owning a home and a new car, raising kids, and other milestones — now add up to a price tag of $5.3 million per household. Why do so many people think climate change will hurt the American Dream, if it’s so close to the bottom of the list of their concerns today? One likely reason is that people are making the connection between climate change and the rising cost of living. More than half of voters are very worried about climate change making life more expensive over the next 20 years, according to the Data for Progress poll. That’s higher than the share of voters who are worried about warmer temperatures, extreme weather, crop failures, and degraded natural areas. 140 articles in 63 journals by 921 contributing authors

Physical science of climate change, effects

Climate-Driven Straightening of Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclone Trajectories, Wang et al., Earth s Future Open Access pdf 10.1029/2026ef008511

Global warming and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation drive seasonally varying increases in extreme fire weather over the southwestern US, Lou et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-026-04188-2

Phenology and surface energy balance changes across northern lands, Hau et al., Biogeosciences Open Access 10.5194/bg-23-7705-2026

Solar Heating of the Arctic Ocean Driven by Changes to Sea Ice Albedo, Siddiqui & Horvat, Geophysical Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1029/2026gl123085

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago: Fast-get-faster explains wavier upper-level jet stream under climate change, Communications Earth & Environment, 10.1038/s43247-024-01819-4 8 cites.

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Observations of climate change, effects

Climate-Driven Straightening of Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclone Trajectories, Wang et al., Earth s Future Open Access pdf 10.1029/2026ef008511

Detecting acceleration in global mean temperature using supralinear trends, Vera-Valdés, Environmental Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1088/1748-9326/aeb55e

Evidence from 2024 Storm Boris indicates anthropogenic climate change amplifies floods more than extreme precipitation, Miersch et al., Science Advances Open Access 10.1126/sciadv.aef7703

Expansion of the Wave Action Season Across Alaska's Marginal Seas, Miesse et al., Journal of Geophysical Research Oceans Open Access pdf 10.1029/2025jc023800

Fingerprints of anthropogenic climate change in multi-season precipitation patterns across Sub-Saharan Africa, Rigden et al., Environmental Research Climate Open Access pdf 10.1088/2752-5295/aea9be

Increase of tropical cyclone-induced coastal flooding due to historical sea level rise, Mengel et al., Environmental Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1088/1748-9326/ae962b

Observed sub-surface warming in Northern Eurasia (1963–2022), Son & Kam, Environmental Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1088/1748-9326/aeb0b8

Thermal amplification of drought and hydroclimatic regime shift in the Pantanal wetland, Santos et al., Environmental Research Climate Open Access pdf 10.1088/2752-5295/aead0e

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago: Intensified Western Pacific Convection Increases the Probability of Hot Extremes in the Middle East During the Boreal Spring, Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres, 10.1029/2024jd042048 6 cites.

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Instrumentation & observational methods of climate change, effects

A global inventory of rock glaciers, Jones et al., Scientific Reports Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41598-018-21244-w

Climate-driven spatial variability of height growth revealed by bitemporal airborne laser scanning data in dry conifer forests, Riofrío et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology Open Access pdf 10.1016/j.agrformet.2026.111569

Early Climate Impact Assessments Targeted 2025—How Did They Perform for Global Water Resources?, Conway et al., Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews Climate Change Open Access pdf 10.1002/wcc.70091

The Standardized Soil Moisture-Temperature Compound Index (SSTCI): daily scale global data set and event catalogue for compound dry-hot extremes (1961–2023), Aftab et al., Earth system science data Open Access 10.5194/essd-18-7981-2026

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago: Continuity in Top-of-Atmosphere Earth Radiation Budget Observations, Journal of Climate, 10.1175/jcli-d-24-0180.1 37 cites.

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Modeling, simulation & projection of climate change, effects

Evaluation of high-resolution river discharge over Europe based on the ICON-CLM climate ensemble simulations, Hagemann et al., KITopen Open Access 10.5445/ir/1000198252

Evaluation-Constrained Projections Reveal a Potentially Navigable Arctic by the 2030s, ZHANG et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1029/2026gl123566

Fire-weather extremes over the Iberian Peninsula: Intensification and seasonal reorganization in deep-learning downscaled projections, Mirones et al., Weather and Climate Extremes Open Access 10.1016/j.wace.2026.100970

Imminent Emergence of Permanent Surface Marine Heatwave States Across Global Oceans, Khan et al., Earth s Future Open Access pdf 10.1029/2026ef008642

Regional Pathways and Impacts of Greenland Ice Sheet Meltwater Simulated in a Sea Ice?Ocean Model, Kusahara et al., Journal of Geophysical Research Oceans Open Access 10.1029/2025jc022467

Shortened Wet Seasons in the Southern Hemisphere Land under Global Warming, Guo et al., Journal of Climate 10.1175/jcli-d-25-0439.1

Zero emissions commitment depends on warming level, Gibbs et al., Nature Climate Change Open Access 10.1038/s41558-026-02776-w

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago: Land Processes Can Substantially Impact the Mean Climate State, Geophysical Research Letters, 10.1029/2024gl108372 21 cites.

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Advancement of climate & climate effects modeling, simulation & projection

Coarse climate model grids underestimate coastal humid-heat extremes, Carniel et al., Science Advances Open Access 10.1126/sciadv.ael4020

Deploying machine learning components coupled to Earth System Models with OASIS3-MCT (v6) and Eophis (v1.1), Barge et al., Geoscientific model development Open Access pdf 10.5194/gmd-19-10345-2026

Does higher-resolution climate forcing improve impact model performance?, Malle et al., Environmental Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1088/1748-9326/aeb279

Emergent constraints improve near-term temperature projections over China: evaluations against observations based on the preindustrial baseline, Fan et al., Environmental Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1088/1748-9326/aeb559

Evaluation of CMIP6 models in reproducing spatially averaged historical temperature and precipitation, Özcan et al., Global and Planetary Change 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2026.105783

Using a two-stage Rosenbrock solver to increase computational efficiency in the DOE's Exascale Earth System Model version 1 (E3SMv1), Chien & Fu, Geoscientific model development Open Access pdf 10.5194/gmd-19-10309-2026

Why Icebergs and Their Interactions with Sea Ice Should Be Included in Earth System Models, Vancoppenolle et al., Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society Open Access 10.1175/bams-d-25-0322.1

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago: Effects of urban areas on the diurnal cycle of temperature and precipitation in a global climate simulation, Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 10.1002/qj.4847 6 cites.

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Cryosphere & climate change

Atmospheric stabilization of the East Antarctic ice sheet under warming, Yun & Timmermann, Nature Climate Change Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41558-026-02791-x

Contrasting regional trends in interannual variability of Antarctic winter sea ice and their atmospheric teleconnections, Yu et al., Environmental Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1088/1748-9326/aeb437

Drivers of 2024 Record Low Sea Ice in Eastern Hudson Bay: A Satellite Era Perspective, Dworak et al., Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres Open Access pdf 10.1029/2026jd047706

Empirical evidence of overestimated Ku-band sea ice radar freeboards in satellite altimetry, Taelman et al., The Cryosphere Open Access pdf 10.5194/tc-20-6181-2026

Evaluation of sea ice variability in three ocean reanalyses and two regional models in the Barents and Kara Seas in 1991–2020, Äijälä et al., Ocean science Open Access 10.5194/os-22-3537-2026

Rate-induced tipping of ice sheets due to visco-elastic Earth response under idealized conditions, Feldmann et al., The Cryosphere Open Access pdf 10.5194/tc-20-6131-2026

Regional Pathways and Impacts of Greenland Ice Sheet Meltwater Simulated in a Sea Ice?Ocean Model, Kusahara et al., Journal of Geophysical Research Oceans Open Access 10.1029/2025jc022467

Reversal of Antarctic Intermediate Water trends triggered by sea ice decline, Mishra et al., Nature Climate Change 10.1038/s41558-026-02758-y

Temperature extremes accelerate cryospheric degradation and alter hydrological processes in the source region of the Yangtze River, Cheng et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access pdf 10.1016/j.accre.2026.10.009

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago: Assessing the impact of artificial geotextile covers on glacier mass balance and energy fluxes, Advances in Climate Change Research, 10.1016/j.accre.2024.10.007 21 cites.

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Sea level & climate change

A century of sea-level change in Ireland (1925–2024), McLoughlin et al., Ocean science Open Access pdf 10.5194/os-22-3499-2026

Increase of tropical cyclone-induced coastal flooding due to historical sea level rise, Mengel et al., Environmental Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1088/1748-9326/ae962b

Projected Changes in Extreme Sea Level and Sea-Level Distribution in the China Marginal Seas Using Dynamical Downscaling, Jin et al., Journal of Geophysical Research Oceans Open Access pdf 10.1029/2026jc024403

Sea-level rise and coastal hazards expose critical infrastructure vulnerabilities across O‘ahu, Mikkelsen et al., Environmental Research Climate Open Access pdf 10.1088/2752-5295/aeab02

Sea-level rise drives unequal erosion of global ecosystem service value, Hu et al., PNAS Nexus Open Access 10.1093/pnasnexus/pgag339

Paleoclimate & paleogeochemistry

Glacial CO2 drawdown by plankton metabolic balance, Cael et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-026-78422-y

The Artinskian Warming Event: A global perspective on a resilient Earth system tipping point and the onset of the transition out of the Late Paleozoic Icehouse, Li et al., Earth-Science Reviews 10.1016/j.earscirev.2026.105751

Biology & climate change, related geochemistry

Accelerating anthropogenic influence on annual peak wood density and associated carbon accumulation across northern conifers, Wang et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-026-04198-0

Climate and Other Human Causes of Spatial Variation in Mallard Mortality and Population Dynamics, Lohman et al., Ecology and Evolution Open Access pdf 10.1002/ece3.74596

Climate-Driven Distribution Modeling of the Glacial Apollo Butterfly (Parnassius glacialis) for Biodiversity Conservation, Wang et al., Ecology and Evolution Open Access 10.1002/ece3.74412

Conservative Spruce Outperforms Acquisitive Larch Under Warming and CO2, Song et al., Global Change Biology Open Access pdf 10.1111/gcb.71157

Contrasting responses of copepods and jellyfish to hydroclimatic change in the coastal waters of northern Taiwan in the southern East China Sea, Lee et al., Marine Environmental Research 10.1016/j.marenvres.2026.108530

Divergent climate signals in growth of adjacent Larix sibirica forests: the role of microsite conditions, Wu et al., Dendrochronologia 10.1016/j.dendro.2026.126626

Effects of ocean acidification on benthic colonization and ecological succession on carbonate stones used in cultural heritage at the CO2 vent system of Castello Aragonese, Marchettoni et al., Marine Environmental Research Open Access 10.1016/j.marenvres.2026.108526

Elevating resilience: a multi-site synthesis of sediment placement as a lifeline for saltmarsh sparrows (Ammospiza caudacuta), Raposa et al., Frontiers in Environmental Science Open Access pdf 10.3389/fenvs.2026.1910874

Evaluating the Potential of Four Native Ziziphus Species for Restoring Savanna-Like Habitats in Jinsha River Under Climate Change, Xu et al., Ecology and Evolution Open Access pdf 10.1002/ece3.74531

Feedbacks between natural climate solutions and plant invasions, Beaury & Levine, Environmental Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1088/1748-9326/aeb0b9

Impacts of weather events on the effectiveness of climate adaptation interventions for threatened species, Luo et al., Bulletin of the Ecological Society of America 10.1890/0012-9623(2008)89[467:stef]2.0.co;2

Interacting Effects of Climate and Land Use on Biodiversity: A Guide to What They Are and Why They Matter, Arnell et al., Global Ecology and Biogeography Open Access pdf 10.1111/geb.70322

Regeneration beyond the treeline: Seed and seedling performance of the Himalayan birch tree under climate warming, Dar et al., Journal of Ecology Open Access pdf 10.1111/1365-2745.70466

Research on urban landscape ecological restoration and spatial renewal in the context of climate change, Liu, Discover Environment Open Access pdf 10.1007/s44274-026-01171-8

Widening asynchrony between canopy greening and carbon uptake phenology across the Northern Hemisphere, Chen et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 10.1016/j.agrformet.2026.111556

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago: Additionality in Blue Carbon Ecosystems: Recommendations for a Universally Applicable Accounting Methodology, Global Change Biology, 10.1111/gcb.17559 27 cites.

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GHG sources & sinks, flux, related geochemistry

Accelerating anthropogenic influence on annual peak wood density and associated carbon accumulation across northern conifers, Wang et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-026-04198-0

Atmospheric Evidence of CO2 Fertilization Enhancing Arctic CO2 Seasonal Cycle Amplitude, Hu et al., Global Biogeochemical Cycles Open Access pdf 10.1029/2026gb009375

Carbon Processing Domains: Seasonal and Spatial Controls on Dissolved Organic Carbon in a Montane River, Young et al., Journal of Geophysical Research Biogeosciences Open Access pdf 10.1029/2025jg009488

Contrasting Responses of Carbon Dioxide and Methane Fluxes Following Thermokarst Erosion Across Tundra-Lake Interfaces in the Western Canadian Arctic, Bennett et al., Journal of Geophysical Research Biogeosciences Open Access 10.1029/2026jg009893

Direct Flux Measurements Reveal CO2 Sinks in Icelandic Glacial Streams Driven by Weathering and Hydrological Mixing, Wild et al., Journal of Geophysical Research Biogeosciences Open Access 10.1029/2026jg010081

Erosion carbon dynamics extend beyond carbon accounting to ecological significance, Xiao, Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-026-04203-6

Impacts of shrub coverage for arctic ecosystem carbon uptake and storage, Emmerichs et al., Biogeosciences Open Access pdf 10.5194/bg-23-7609-2026

Monthly-updated territorial fossil CO2 emissions estimates for Japan, Kunimitsu & Andrew, Earth system science data Open Access 10.5194/essd-18-8003-2026

Quantifying and attributing CO emissions over Central Asia using TROPOMI and explicit observational uncertainty, Feng et al., Atmospheric chemistry and physics Open Access pdf 10.5194/acp-26-15139-2026

Satellite-Based Assessment Reveals Patterns of Coastal Marsh Carbon Sequestration Along the U.S. East and Gulf Coasts, Yang et al., Earth s Future Open Access pdf 10.1029/2026ef008763

Sector-detailed urban greenhouse gas emission futures derived from the ScenarioMIP-CMIP7 ensemble, Luderer et al., Environmental Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1088/1748-9326/aea34f

Spatiotemporal dynamics of carbon sources and sinks and driving mechanisms of net carbon emissions: a case study of the Yangtze River Economic Belt, Tan et al., Frontiers in Environmental Science Open Access pdf 10.3389/fenvs.2026.1917084

Surface Subsidence as an Effective Indicator of Methane Emissions From Underground Coal Mines, He et al., Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres Open Access pdf 10.1029/2025jd045292

Synthesis of greenhouse gas emission factors for forest organic soils in the Köppen–Geiger Dfb climate zone, Butlers et al., Biogeosciences Open Access pdf 10.5194/bg-23-7559-2026

The uncertain impacts of an 1.5 °C overshoot-and-decline scenario on carbon stocks and productivity in terrestrial ecosystems, Boeschoten et al., Environmental Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1088/1748-9326/aeb4cc

Wildfire severity reshapes soil organic carbon fractions and stabilization pathways in a subalpine forest, Peng et al., Frontiers in Forests and Global Change Open Access pdf 10.3389/ffgc.2026.1991068

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago: Aridity-Driven Change in Microbial Carbon Use Efficiency and Its Linkage to Soil Carbon Storage, Global Change Biology, 10.1111/gcb.17565 56 cites.

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CO2 capture, sequestration science & engineering

Carbon-Based Adsorbents for CO2 Capture: Mechanism-Guided Material Design and Data-Driven Optimization, Cai et al., Carbon Neutralization Open Access pdf 10.1002/cnl2.70211

Global dynamics and governance implications of forest carbon projects in the voluntary carbon market: Evidence from Verra, Bayssi et al., Anthropocene 10.1016/j.ancene.2026.100595

Initial affect shapes risk-benefit information processing and public support for carbon dioxide removal technologies, Helm et al., Environmental Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1088/1748-9326/aeb81e

Modeling afforestation suitability in the Cross-Niger transition forest through remote sensing and analytical hierarchy process to advance global goals, Enoh et al., Scientific Reports Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41598-026-77144-x

When carbon counts differ: the complexities of biogenic carbon accounting in BECCUS and why accounting choices matter, Gomez et al., Figshare Open Access 10.6084/m9.figshare.34874979

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago: Afforestation Reduces Deep Soil Carbon Sequestration in Semiarid Regions: Lessons From Variations of Soil Water and Carbon Along Afforestation Stages in China's Loess Plateau, Journal of Geophysical Research Biogeosciences, 10.1029/2024jg008287 18 cites.

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Decarbonization

Dynamics of acceptance and domestication of residential solar photovoltaics: insights from Lisbon households, Ribeiro, Environmental Sociology 10.1080/23251042.2026.2754118

Enabling vehicle-grid interaction through carbon credit trading for renewable energy integration in China, Lin et al., Energy Policy 10.1016/j.enpol.2026.115699

Global warming intensifies compound renewable energy droughts, Aminimehr et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-026-04183-7

Towards European hydrogen market design: Perspectives from transmission system operators, Saretta et al., Energy Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.enpol.2026.115634

Translating sulfur flow batteries into deployable systems, Ai et al., Nature Energy 10.1038/s41560-026-02152-0

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago: Renewable energy quality trilemma and coincident wind and solar droughts, Communications Earth & Environment, 10.1038/s43247-024-01850-5 52 cites.

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Geoengineering climate

The cultural politics of risk: egalitarian civil society opposition to solar radiation modification, Guivant et al., Environmental Research Climate Open Access pdf 10.1088/2752-5295/aea58c

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago: A fully coupled solid-particle microphysics scheme for stratospheric aerosol injections within the aerosol–chemistry–climate model SOCOL-AERv2, Geoscientific model development, 10.5194/gmd-17-7767-2024 18 cites.

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Aerosols

Distinct climate responses to regional aerosol reductions: an overview of the regional aerosol model intercomparison project, Wilcox et al., Environmental Research Climate Open Access pdf 10.1088/2752-5295/aeb71a

Observing formation and early evolution of contrails formed by IAGOS aircraft using high-resolution LEO satellite imagery, Woldhuis et al., Atmospheric measurement techniques Open Access 10.5194/amt-19-6891-2026

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago: Data collation for climate-cooling gas dimethylsulfide in Antarctic snow, sea ice and underlying seawater, Scientific Data, 10.1038/s41597-024-04038-w 2 cites.

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Climate change communications & cognition

Decoding climate anomalies—From scientifically sound to societally relevant, Brown et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Open Access pdf 10.1073/pnas.2321154122

Environmental Motivation’s Relevance to CO2 Emissions, Neef et al., Journal of Environmental Psychology Open Access 10.1016/j.jenvp.2026.103275

Evaluating the effectiveness of climate change communication to young people across Southern Africa, Gamede, Frontiers in Climate Open Access 10.3389/fclim.2026.1927889

Feeling less rushed by seeing more green: How passive green space exposure reduces perceived time poverty through sense of control, Liu et al., Journal of Environmental Psychology 10.1016/j.jenvp.2026.103272

Heterogeneous impacts of temperature extremes on climate attitudes and Green voting, Bassetto et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Open Access 10.1073/pnas.2321153122

Incivility in public health policy discussions spills over to public engagement with climate issues: evidence from English-language social media, Narimanzadeh et al., Environmental Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1088/1748-9326/aeb682

Public support for net-zero climate policy packages under political party cues, Hoyle et al., Environmental Politics Open Access pdf 10.1080/09644016.2026.2752535

The carbon divide: exploring economic and cultural dimensions of climate change attitudes and climate policy support in the Netherlands, Slageren et al., Environmental Politics Open Access pdf 10.1080/09644016.2026.2752537

The Climate Change Conspiracy Belief Scale: Development and Validation of a Multidimensional Measure, Gourville et al., Journal of Environmental Psychology 10.1016/j.jenvp.2026.103276

The Emotional Profiles of Climate Audiences: Mapping Climate Emotions Across the Six Americas, Ma?ecki et al., Journal of Environmental Psychology 10.1016/j.jenvp.2026.103269

Uncivil climate: the politicization of environmental discourse on Reddit (2008–2025), Lun et al., Environmental Sociology 10.1080/23251042.2026.2754063

Who Acts on Climate Concern? Socio-Demographic Patterns of the Concern–Behaviour Gap in Hungary, Bodor et al., Climate Resilience and Sustainability Open Access pdf 10.1002/cli2.70073

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago: Do You See What I See? Emotional Reaction to Visual Content in the Online Debate About Climate Change, Environmental Communication, 10.1080/17524032.2024.2420787 8 cites.

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Agronomy, animal husbundry, food production & climate change

Agriculture and food systems at a critical climate juncture, Nguyen, Tap chi Moi truong Open Access pmh:oai:vjol.info.vn:article/122059

Integrating climate change into pattern-based modelling of agricultural and forest land dynamics in Romania, Kucsicsa et al., Scientific Reports Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41598-026-75331-4

Intensification and Spatial Reorganization of Drought Risks for Global Rainfed Crops Under Climate Change, Wang et al., Global Change Biology Open Access pdf 10.1111/gcb.71164

Spatiotemporal Propagation and Future Risks of Agricultural Drought in Response to Meteorological Drought Across Asia, Lu et al., Earth s Future Open Access pdf 10.1029/2026ef008228

Synergistic Management of Abandoned Cropland Mitigates Trade-Offs Between Food Security and Climate Mitigation in Hilly and Mountainous Areas, Bai et al., Earth s Future Open Access pdf 10.1029/2026ef008062

The role of climate information in enhancing household food security in rural northern Ghana, Zakaria & Alhassan, Frontiers in Climate Open Access pdf 10.3389/fclim.2026.1992976

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago: Past and future impacts of marine heatwaves on small-scale fisheries in Baja California, Mexico, Communications Earth & Environment, 10.1038/s43247-024-01696-x 21 cites.

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Hydrology, hydrometeorology & climate change

A Satellite-Based Analysis of Changes in Extreme Precipitation over West Africa, Klutse et al., Earth Systems and Environment Open Access pdf 10.1007/s41748-021-00203-y

Anthropogenic climate change intensifies rainfall in extreme compound rainfall-wave events in the NW Mediterranean, Aguilera-Vidal et al., Environmental Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1088/1748-9326/aebaa0

Early Climate Impact Assessments Targeted 2025—How Did They Perform for Global Water Resources?, Conway et al., Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews Climate Change Open Access pdf 10.1002/wcc.70091

Enhanced Sensitivity of the Asian Water Tower to La Niña in the 21st Century, Wu et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1029/2026gl125445

Evidence from 2024 Storm Boris indicates anthropogenic climate change amplifies floods more than extreme precipitation, Miersch et al., Science Advances Open Access 10.1126/sciadv.aef7703

Recent Slowing Arctic-Amplified Warming Drives an Unprecedented Water Recovery in the World's Most Voluminous Freshwater Lake, Wang et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2026gl124400

Robust Increase in Extreme Future Precipitation in the Lake Victoria Basin Based on Kilometer-Scale Regional Climate Projections, Sunguti et al., Journal of Climate 10.1175/jcli-d-25-0682.1

Temperature extremes accelerate cryospheric degradation and alter hydrological processes in the source region of the Yangtze River, Cheng et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access pdf 10.1016/j.accre.2026.10.009

The flip side of destructive wildfires: a water supply buffer to climate change, Zamora-Reyes et al., Environmental Research Climate Open Access pdf 10.1088/2752-5295/aea9bf

Thermal amplification of drought and hydroclimatic regime shift in the Pantanal wetland, Santos et al., Environmental Research Climate Open Access pdf 10.1088/2752-5295/aead0e

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago: Anthropogenic warming has ushered in an era of temperature-dominated droughts in the western United States, Science Advances, 10.1126/sciadv.adn9389 70 cites.

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Climate change economics

Governing global capital: How state capacity and climate policy credibility attract sustainable investment, Zheng, PNAS Nexus Open Access pdf 10.1093/pnasnexus/pgag315

Is there an environmental Kuznets curve in Saudi Arabia? cointegration and decoupling evidence, Muneer et al., Frontiers in Environmental Science Open Access pdf 10.3389/fenvs.2026.1955888

The finance sector should capture the full range of climate change risks, Gambhir et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-026-04160-0

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago: Promoting low-carbon energy transition through green finance: New evidence from a demand-supply perspective, Energy Policy, 10.1016/j.enpol.2024.114376 49 cites.

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Climate change mitigation public policy research

Assessing processes and evidence for highest possible ambition in Nationally Determined Contributions under the Paris Agreement, Schönfeld et al., Environmental Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1088/1748-9326/aeb55f

Enabling climate change action in cities: a systematic assessment of conditions, Burch et al., Environmental Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1088/1748-9326/aea4c8

Mitigation justice, Reich et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Open Access pdf 10.1073/pnas.2411231122

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago: A globally just and inclusive transition? Questioning policy representations of the European Green Deal, Global Environmental Change, 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2024.102946 36 cites.

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Climate change adaptation & adaptation public policy research

Assessing household resilience to climate change using resilience index approach in southwest Ethiopia, Abafogi et al., Scientific Reports Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41598-026-78210-0

Climate change and cultural resources: assessing exposure to impacts of climate change in New Mexico and Arizona, Maerhofer, Journal for the Study of Radicalism 10.14321/jstudradi.17.2.0083

Equity dimensions of future vulnerabilities to climate hazards: Long-term spatial population projections for New York City consistent with Shared Socioeconomic Pathways, Balk et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Open Access pdf 10.1073/pnas.2407568122

Fire risk to U.S. structures nearly triples by mid-century, Iglesias et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-026-78904-z

Inclusivity of climate services in climate-resilient urban planning: A policy analysis of Ghana's National Frameworks, Nortey et al., Urban Climate 10.1016/j.uclim.2026.103208

Opportunities for Increasing Resilience to Changing Severe Weather in Southern Africa: “Early Action and Enhanced Adaptive Capacity for All”, Kendon et al., Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society Open Access 10.1175/bams-d-25-0196.1

Sea-level rise and coastal hazards expose critical infrastructure vulnerabilities across O‘ahu, Mikkelsen et al., Environmental Research Climate Open Access pdf 10.1088/2752-5295/aeab02

The resilience contract: Comparing climate resilience planning and community realities in Dominica, Nicholas et al., Global Environmental Change Open Access 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2026.103254

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago: Plant traits, microclimate temperature and humidity: A research agenda for advancing nature-based solutions to a warming and drying climate, Journal of Ecology, 10.1111/1365-2745.14313 57 cites.

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Climate change impacts on human health

Heat Force: A new operational 0–10 scale for environmental heat stress, Marghidan et al., Temperature Open Access 10.1080/23328940.2026.2755199

Humid-heat shifts conceptions and increases pregnancy termination risks in Nigeria, Brooks et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Open Access 10.1073/pnas.2321152122

Indoor temperatures above 26 °C impose disproportionate cardiovascular strain on older adults, O’Connor et al., Temperature Open Access pdf 10.1080/23328940.2026.2750778

Loss and damage as mental health policy: Valuing what cannot be replaced, Kumar, PLOS Climate Open Access 10.1371/journal.pclm.0001100

Projecting potential population exposure to the invasive malaria vector Anopheles stephensi, Sun et al., Environmental Research Letters Open Access 10.1088/1748-9326/aeb558

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago: Atmospheric health burden across the century and the accelerating impact of temperature compared to pollution, Nature Communications, 10.1038/s41467-024-53649-9 35 cites.

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Climate change & geopolitics

Climate security narratives in transboundary river basins: the discursive politics of the Helmand River Basin, Nofeli & Mianabadi, Environmental Politics 10.1080/09644016.2026.2745335

Pushing for more: Policy norms and climate clubs in global politics, Reischl et al., Energy Research & Social Science Open Access pdf 10.1016/j.erss.2026.105049

Other

Important but Overlooked Reactive Organic Carbon (ROC) Air Pollution From Permafrost Wildfires in Canada, Liu et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1029/2026gl124165

Spring Greenland–Kara sea-ice dipole preconditions the development of the 2020 record marine heatwave in the Eurasian Arctic marginal seas, Fan et al., Atmospheric Research 10.1016/j.atmosres.2026.109428

Two large unstable slopes in West Greenland illustrates an emerging Arctic tsunami hazard, Keiding et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-026-04175-7

Urban Climate Risks and Corporate Green Innovation: Evidence from China, Gao & Zhang, Sustainability Open Access 10.3390/su18178804

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago: Expanding European fossil-based plastic production in a time of socio-ecological crisis: A neo-Gramscian perspective, Energy Research & Social Science, 10.1016/j.erss.2024.103759 13 cites.

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Informed opinion, nudges & major initiatives

Fossil-fuel subsidy reform as a step towards a just transition: a litmus test for COP31, Haksal, Frontiers in Climate Open Access pdf 10.3389/fclim.2026.1998936

How democracy depends on science — and must protect it, Kahanec et al., Nature 10.1038/d41586-026-03510-4

Southeast Asian voices on climate change, Eng et al., Nature Climate Change 10.1038/s41558-026-02783-x

Strategic science is needed to mitigate warming-induced emissions and bioclimate feedbacks effectively and efficiently, Buma et al., Environmental Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1088/1748-9326/aeafc0

The overshoot integral can inform climate science and policy beyond 1.5 °C of warming, Dyke et al., Environmental Research Letters Open Access 10.1088/1748-9326/aeb55a

Time to drop the no-policy business-as-usual baselines, George & Patwardhan, Nature Climate Change 10.1038/s41558-026-02787-7

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago: Forest canopies as nature-based solutions to mitigate global change effects on people and nature, Journal of Ecology, 10.1111/1365-2745.14345 52 cites.

Articles/Reports from Agencies and Non-Governmental Organizations Addressing Aspects of Climate Change

Coastal Flooding Risks for California, Fraser Shilling, Road Ecology Center; University of California, Davis

Coastal areas in California are likely to face enhanced flooding and erosion risk this winter from a combination of sea level rise and El Nino. All the problems that are occurring now were predicted years ago and people should not be surprised when they start happening.

The Opportunity for Heat Pumps to Put Downward Pressure on Electricity Rates, Shea et al., RMI

The authors identify residential heat pumps as an overlooked opportunity to further improve grid use by strategically adding additional electricity sales within available winter headroom — the available winter generation capacity after reserves above winter peak demand. In doing so, heat pumps can simultaneously put downward pressure on electric rates, i.e., lower rates relative to what they otherwise would be, and reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

Coal Costs Americans: Tracking expensive giveaways to coal plants, Environmental Defense Fund

The Trump administration is propping up aging and unreliable coal plants that emit vast amounts of harmful air pollutants – even as it attempts to slow or block the construction of cleaner and more affordable sources of power. Americans are paying with their wallets and their health. The U.S. still has 184 coal-fired power plants operating across 39 states. Coal plants release mercury, heavy metals, and soot into the air, water, and food. The Trump administration is exploiting a variety of federal mechanisms to prop up 90 coal plants (189 units) in the U.S. That’s almost half of all grid-connected coal plants in the country. In 2025, the Trump administration handed out unlawful Clean Air Act exemptions to 154 units across 70 coal plants. The Department of Energy has committed $950 million in taxpayer dollars to prop up 24 coal plants, including helping finance two new plants and helping bring one retired plant back online. Under a Federal Power Act provision meant for true emergencies, the Department of Energy has repeatedly ordered 6 coal plants to keep operating past their retirement dates, in some cases for over a year.

North Carolina Power Pathways: A stakeholder-Directed Scenario Analysis, Energy Futures Group, North Carolina Office of the Governor

The authors created a stakeholder-driven modeling exercise to inform engagement and action on a wide range of questions pertaining to the North Caroli's electricity system. The modeling included the development of a Base Case scenario representing Duke Energy and replicated the utility’s assumptions wherever they were made publicly available. The authors also ran six scenarios and two sensitivities for comparison against the Base Case, representing alternate policy, technology, or cost futures that the Subcommittee deemed most important for assessment. All scenarios were run across a modeling period from 2026 to 2050. The authors present the results of the scenario assessment. The magnitude, timing, and expected operation of new large load customers together, along with planned fossil retirements, will require construction of new gas-fired generation as part of a portfolio of other generating resources across all scenarios. In the Base Case, large load customers are responsible for 5.8 GW of increased demand by 2035. Load forecasting based on actual committed customer demand is a critical tool to mitigate the high risk associated with over-forecasting and large percentage of load growth driven by large customers. The Path to Net Zero Case indicates that beginning the transition to net zero emissions earlier and modifying certain assumptions about technology cost and availability, given supportive policies, may reduce overall costs.

The Good Anthropocene: The Science, Community and Art of Hope, Benedict Dempsey and Lindsey Gillson, University of York and WWF-UK

The authors explore the issue of positive futures in the context of three areas of the UK – Pembrokeshire, Norfolk and the Firth of Forth. In these locations, WWF-UK is running ‘Wholescape’ projects designed to enable communities to work together in ways that benefit climate, nature and people together. People were asked in those places to imagine positive futures over the lifetime of a child born today and further, seven generations into the future. In ways uniquely suited to their areas, people imagined greater connection with nature, increased community connectedness, and happier and healthier lifestyles. They envisioned transformed food, transport, education, energy and housing. They imagined productive landscapes managed for the good of people and nature, where a sense of stewardship and connection replaced today’s fragmented and frenetic lifestyles. The futures people imagined felt more secure and less precarious, where the pace of change is less breakneck. Life is quieter and greener – seeing not only technological change, but changes to everyday life so that fulfilment is found through meaningful connections to people, place and nature. In these imagined futures, innovation blends with tradition to create visions that are at the same time different and familiar.

Methane Made in America_, N/A, Law (UCLA)

The authors spotlight 15 of the highest-emitting methane sources in the three U.S. oil and gas basins that export the most LNG to Europe: the Permian, Appalachian,?and Haynesville basins. They also assess, for the first time, what is known — and not known — about potentially responsible operators for these sites and for other large methane plumes throughout those basins. As U.S. natural gas production grows, the goal with the report is to shed further light on super-emitting sources of methane, one of the most potent heat-trapping greenhouse gases. The authors provide a user-friendly ranking of the top 10 oil and gas sites in those three basins, as seen by one of the most sophisticated methane-detection satellites in the world. They authors define the top 10 sites as those with the highest average methane emission rate observed from January 1,?2025, to June 1,?2026, by the Tanager-1 satellite, excluding sources with two or fewer detected plumes.

Electric Vehicle Fires: What the Data Sources Tell Us, Jess Senger, Plug In America

Electric vehicles are less likely to catch fire than gas vehicles. This finding is replicated in six major studies worldwide. Electric vehicles present a lower fire risk than gas vehicles: for every 100,000 vehicles, gas car fires were more frequent. Further research can investigate the causes of vehicle fires and the relationship between fire incidents and vehicle age. Long-term data is needed to research these topics.

Data centres for grids: the potential impact of flexibility, Elisabeth Cremona, Ember

The author explores how much data centers could alleviate stress on power grids during peak events through two mechanisms: shifting consumption to other hours/locations or switching to onsite generators. With limited data on data centers, the analysis draws on assumptions from available literature. An interactive calculator lets readers test these ranges. Data centers could account for 25% of peak demand by 2030 in certain markets. Only 3% of data center capacity is estimated to be available for load shifting in 2030. Onsite generation could offer nearly five times more grid relief than load shifting - but this flexibility mechanism also brings risks.

Most voters believe climate change threatens the American Dream, Data for Progress, Grist

Voters view climate change itself as a problem for their aspirations. Fifty-eight percent of likely U.S. voters believe that the warming climate will hinder their ability to achieve or maintain the American Dream over the next 20 years — including 42 percent of Republicans. The typical elements of the American Dream — owning a home and a new car, raising kids, and other milestones — now add up to a price tag of $5.3 million per household. Why do so many people think climate change will hurt the American Dream, if it’s so close to the bottom of the list of their concerns today? One likely reason is that people are making the connection between climate change and the rising cost of living. More than half of voters are very worried about climate change making life more expensive over the next 20 years, according to the Data for Progress poll. That’s higher than the share of voters who are worried about warmer temperatures, extreme weather, crop failures, and degraded natural areas.

Estimating the US Energy System Impacts of the Bipartisan American Affordability and Jobs Act, King et al., Rhodium Group

The Bipartisan American Affordability and Jobs Act (BAAJA) is currently under consideration in the US Senate. If passed, the bill makes substantial changes to federal environmental permitting laws and how electric power transmission lines are planned, permitted, and paid for. The authors modeled key components of the initial version of BAAJA, introduced on September 30, focused on reducing barriers to building linear infrastructure, i.e., transmission lines and gas pipelines, and on protecting ratepayers from higher grid costs due to AI data center buildout. The results reflect the additional effects of the BAAJA provisions beyond a baseline of current policy without BAAJA. The authors project that the combined effect of these provisions would reduce household electricity bills by $50-78 per year in 2040 compared to without BAAJA, both because easier permitting would allow lower-cost resources to connect to the grid and because the bill explicitly prohibits charging non-data center customers for data center costs. The transmission provisions of the bill enable accelerated average interregional transmission build rates nearly triple that of the last decade or more and drive an additional 17-249 GW of clean resources to be built through 2040. The bill as a whole increases liquefied natural gas (LNG) export levels by 8-15% beyond a 76-145% increase already happening under current policy. Taken together, these provisions uniformly reduce economy-wide greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 5-148 million metric tons annually in 2040 and as much as 1.5 gigatons cumulatively, compared to without BAAJA.

Planetary Power: Geoengineering and the New Geopolitics of Climate Intervention, Olivia Lazard, editor, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

Geoengineering is becoming a geopolitical question as much as a climate one. The way states and the private sector pursue these technologies, assess risks, and drive research increasingly appears focused on gaining a strategic edge. In a field where governance in lagging behind, Europe should keep track of the geopolitical implications if it is to develop effective regulatory frameworks. This compilation seeks to shift the focus away from evaluating hypothetical technologies and stylized strategic dilemmas and toward an understanding of the countries and actors that are developing, might use, and will have to govern these technologies. As such, the series is an important addition to existing analysis of climate intervention. The six articles ask what several key actors—nation-states and globally influential industries—think of geoengineering. How do they categorize the various approaches? What are their interests in having these still-hazy technological capabilities available for their own use or that of others? What are their goals and concerns? What interests and abilities do they have as developers, decisionmakers, or instigators of technologies, institutions, or governance approaches?

Overshoot and the Cryosphere: Averting Global Meltdown, Kirkham et al., International Cryosphere Climate Initiative

Exceeding the 1.5°C Paris Agreement target will bring large and in many cases irreversible effects from the Earth’s melting ice sheets, permafrost, glaciers, sea ice and polar oceans. These losses can still be limited if overshoot is kept to a minimum by deep emissions reductions followed by scaled-up carbon drawdown. The authors set out the global effects of ice loss with overshoot, exploring which ones are locked in – and how more urgent climate action can still stop or slow the worst of this damage, delivering vital evidence ahead of COP31 in Türkiye. The authors lay out out actionable solutions to bring temperatures back down from overshoot. Renewable energy and battery technologies are booming, reliance on coal and oil is slowing, and climate policies have cut emissions in many places. Successful policies now need to be scaled up to reduce emissions by at least 5% per year, starting now, reaching net zero greenhouse gas emissions by mid-century. The authors emphasize that there can be no delay in phasing out fossil fuels to retain the possibility of bringing temperatures down in the future by drawing down carbon.

State of the Cryosphere 2026: The Cost of Overshoot, Pearson et al., International Cryosphere Climate Initiative

Overshooting the 1.5°C Paris Agreement target will bring large-scale, and in many cases irreversible, impacts from the Earth’s melting ice sheets, permafrost, glaciers, sea ice and polar oceans. This will bring a catalogue of dangerous global risks. Many are already visible today, including the devastating floods on the Nepal-China border in August that killed thousands, accelerating sea-level rise that threatens hundreds of millions of people globally and potentially irreversible disruption to the planet’s oceans and weather systems. Overshoot must be kept to the absolute minimum and temperatures returned to below 1.5°C as quickly as possible. About New Research

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Categories: I. Climate Science

Mitch McConnell’s climate legacy

Wed, 11/04/2026 - 12:41

This article first appeared on Yale Climate Connections and is republished here under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License. 

Outgoing Sen. Mitch McConnell was one of the most powerful figures ever to walk the halls of the U.S. Congress and was instrumental in steering the country’s climate policy. At virtually every opportunity, he chose to block efforts to address the problem.

McConnell, a Republican from Kentucky, did not seek reelection and is set to retire from the Senate in January. At that point, he will have been the 10th-longest-serving senator in U.S. history. He was also the longest-serving Senate party leader in history.

During his tenure, McConnell exerted his power to halt or overturn climate action in Congress, at the Supreme Court, and in the White House. Over a decades-long career, he joined a short list of individuals most responsible for stymying political efforts to address climate change.

A Senate leader’s war against the president

Over his 40-year tenure in the Senate, McConnell received over $4 million in donations from the oil and gas and coal industries – the fifth-most of any senator.

He was chosen as the leader of Senate Republicans in 2007, shortly before President Barack Obama, a Democrat, won office with a 60-member filibuster-proof Senate majority and a Democratic-controlled House.

At the time, observers thought it possible that Congress would pass bipartisan legislation to combat climate change.

In 2008, Democratic House leader Nancy Pelosi and former Republican House leader Newt Gingrich had created an ad together in which Gingrich said, “We do agree: Our country must take action to address climate change.”

The House soon passed a carbon cap-and-trade bill designed to tackle climate pollution. Eight Republicans voted in favor.

But the Democrats were never able to put their filibuster-proof majority to work on climate legislation. Their majority was thinned by election recounts, legal challenges, member illnesses, the death of Democrat Robert Byrd, and a lost special election in January 2010. What’s more, several Senate Democrats did not support the cap-and-trade bill, so climate advocates needed support from perhaps half a dozen Senate Republicans.

Some Republicans, most prominently the late Sen. Lindsey Graham, worked on a version of the cap-and-trade bill. But rather than support the legislation, McConnell had decided instead to declare war on Obama’s entire agenda, as reporter Ryan Lizza documented in a 2010 article. By working on a climate bill, Republican senators risked angering McConnell.

The cap-and-trade bill died a quiet death, never having received a vote in the Senate.

In 2019, McConnell acknowledged the reality of human-caused climate change. At the time, he said he preferred to solve the problem through technology and innovation. Yet he opposed legislation that climate advocates and researchers said would spur technological innovation, such as a price on carbon pollution and clean energy tax credits.

The Senate finally passed sweeping climate legislation in 2022, when Democrats enacted the Inflation Reduction Act. McConnell vehemently opposed the bill.

In 2025, McConnell helped to repeal many provisions of the Inflation Reduction Act when he supported the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, which passed the Senate by a single vote.

McConnell’s conservative Supreme Court

The senator expressed pride in his influence over the Supreme Court. Notably, he blocked Obama’s nomination of moderate Merrick Garland in 2016 to replace Justice Antonin Scalia. In a move that broke with norms and historical precedent, McConnell refused to allow the chamber to consider or vote on Garland’s nomination.

“The most important decision I've made in my entire political career was not to fill the Supreme Court vacancy when Justice Scalia passed away,” McConnell recalled in 2024.

Soon after taking office in January 2017, Trump nominated the conservative Neil Gorsuch to the court, and the Republican-controlled Senate approved him. The Senate under McConnell also approved the 2018 nomination of conservative Brett Kavanaugh and the 2020 nomination of conservative Amy Coney Barrett.

The now right-wing court has consistently issued rulings that undermine climate and other environmental regulations.

In the 2022 case West Virginia v. EPA, the court issued a 6-3 decision – with the three new conservative justices in the majority – ruling against the Obama administration’s 2016 Clean Power Plan to regulate climate pollution from power plants. They did so even though the proposed rule never went into effect and by then had already been repealed under the first Trump administration.

In that case, the court also formalized what it called the “major questions doctrine,” which prohibits federal agencies from issuing new regulations that will have major economic or political influence unless Congress has specifically and explicitly delegated that authority.

In the 2024 case Loper Bright Enterprises v. Raimondo, in another 6-3 partisan split, the court overturned the 40-year-old Chevron doctrine, a principle that federal judges should defer to a government agency's reasonable interpretation of an ambiguous Congressional statute.

Both decisions could enable the Supreme Court to block federal climate regulations in the future.

A crucial vote to acquit

In January 2021, the senator had an opportunity to prevent a second Trump administration. He chose not to take it.

The House of Representatives had impeached Trump for inciting an insurrection at the Capitol a week earlier.

"There's no question that President Trump is practically and morally responsible for provoking the events of the day,” McConnell said at the time.

But he declined to whip his caucus to remove Trump. Instead, McConnell and 42 other Republican senators voted to acquit him.

Had Trump been impeached, he would have been constitutionally barred from ever again holding office. Instead, he was elected to a second term in 2024 and has presided over the most anti-climate-policy administration in U.S. history, which has included withdrawing from the Paris climate agreement for the second time and repealing virtually all federal climate policies. It proved to be a fitting capstone to McConnell’s lengthy career of sabotaging climate policy at every level of government.

 

//
Categories: I. Climate Science

Climate change helps insects devour more crops even as farmers spray more pesticides

Tue, 11/03/2026 - 13:55

This article by Sanket Jain first appeared on Yale Climate Connections and is republished here under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License. 

Farmers around the world are spraying more chemicals than ever on their crops as they battle insect pests. Many of these small, hungry creatures have benefited from climate change, which has expanded their range, extended their breeding season, and made them harder to control with pesticides.

“As temperatures rise, managing pest attacks is becoming increasingly difficult as many of these pests multiply much faster,” said Laxman Mane, 50, who farms a plot of just under two acres in western India’s Haroli village, growing cauliflower, cabbage, cucumbers, okra, sugarcane and tomatoes.

“Earlier, none of these pesticides were required, but now if you don’t use them, you can’t cultivate any crop,” said Mane, who has been farming for three decades and now sprays chemicals on his cauliflower and cabbage weekly. He started out using dimethoate, then switched to another insecticide that only controlled the pests for about two years, he said. He has boosted the dosage, but heavier spraying has not solved the problem.

Pests and diseases reduce global crop yields by an estimated 20-40% every year, causing $220 billion in losses. Pesticide use in agriculture more than doubled worldwide between 1990 and 2024, reaching 3.92 million metric tons of active ingredients, according to the UN’s Food and Agriculture Organization.

Researchers have found that in some pest species, biological mechanisms that help them tolerate extreme heat can also help them withstand pesticides.

So as pests grow more resilient, experts say farmers also need to adapt. Many recommend integrated pest management, which includes monitoring fields and spraying only when it makes economic sense rather than on a calendar schedule. Farmers also should use natural predators to control pests. They need to adjust planting windows and, where available, choose crop varieties that better resist pests. Rotating chemical pesticides is recommended, as is taking care to make sure that pesticides do not kill off pollinators and other beneficial organisms.

But an integrated approach is difficult for smallholder farmers with limited access to training and resources.

“Poor farmers like me are left with no resort but to keep spraying,” Mane said.

Research from other countries points to similar concerns. A review study of African smallholder farming found that changing climatic conditions can increase pest problems and crop-loss risks in cotton, tomato, maize and cowpea.

Why some pests become harder to control

Warmer temperatures do not make every pest more resistant. In some cases, in fact, it’s the opposite. But in general, as temperatures rise, pests are expanding into new areas, appearing earlier in the season, or producing more generations in a year. Warmer conditions can cause some insects to develop faster.

When insects mature faster and produce the next generation more quickly, pesticide resistance can evolve more rapidly because resistant individuals have more opportunities to survive pesticide exposure and pass resistance traits to their offspring.

“In regions experiencing frequent heat waves, we could certainly see a decline in insecticide efficacy over time,” said Aline Guidolin, an entomologist and professor at the University of São Paulo’s Luiz de Queiroz College of Agriculture. 

Global warming will not help all pests. In places where pests are already close to the highest temperatures they can tolerate, extreme heat can make some pests less successful, said Sanford Eigenbrode, an entomologist and professor emeritus at the University of Idaho. However, he added, “In temperate latitudes, warming is more likely to increase pest developmental rates, making them more difficult to control.” 

One species that has developed resistance is the diamondback moth, a major pest of cabbage, cauliflower and other related crops. The past 50 years of global warming have expanded the area where it could survive winter by about 2.4 million square kilometers. Researchers have found that, on average, pesticide resistance levels were 158 times higher in areas where the moth could survive winter than in areas where it occurred only seasonally.

How warming can reshape pesticide resistance

Pesticide resistance depends on several factors, Eigenbrode said, including frequency of exposure, pre-existing resistance traits in a population, breeding and development characteristics, and the level of annual exposure.

“Warming climates can alter these factors,” he said.

Rising temperatures or other environmental factors can change which versions of certain genes become more common in a pest population. Evolutionary biologist Henry Chung, an associate professor at Michigan State University, said certain genes may be involved in both heat tolerance and insecticide resistance. Changing environmental conditions can make these gene versions more or less common over generations. This could make a population more or less resistant to insecticides.

“Environmental change can cause populations to be more resistant to an insecticide, or it can also cause populations to be more susceptible,” Chung said.

A pest could even become more resistant to one insecticide while becoming more susceptible to another.

Heat makes resistant pests harder to kill

In Brazil, researchers tested fall armyworms, a major maize pest, between 18°C and 32°C, comparing insects resistant to two insecticides with those that were not. At 28°C, they needed a concentration 340 times higher of spinetoram insecticide to kill resistant armyworms than they did to produce the same mortality level in susceptible insects.

At 32°C, the difference grew to nearly 590 times. 

Guidolin, who co-authored the study, said that at higher temperatures, the armyworms’ metabolism speeds up, allowing them to break down and detoxify insecticides faster. Higher temperatures enhance this defense mechanism, she said, making insecticides like chlorantraniliprole and spinetoram less effective.

To manage the growing challenge of pesticide resistance, Guidolin said farmers should follow insecticide-resistance management practices, including applying insecticides only at manufacturer-recommended rates, avoiding under-dosing and over-dosing. Farmers should also rotate between pesticides that work in different ways.

Still, “As temperatures rise, chemical rotation alone won’t be enough,” she warned.

Sanford recommends switching between pesticides that target pests in different ways, while protecting beneficial organisms, including pollinators.

Researchers try switching off genes that build resilience

Researchers in China studied Tetranychus truncatus, a spider mite that attacks more than 100 crops, including maize, cotton and soybean. They identified five genes involved in producing heat-shock proteins, which protect cells from stresses such as extreme heat and pesticides. Three of the genes became much more active at 38°C to 42°C. Two also became more active after exposure to sublethal doses of three acaricides.

When the team switched off these two genes, the mites became more vulnerable to both heat and acaricides. Mortality increased by up to 35% under heat, and by up to 38.8% after pesticide exposure, showing that the same biological defenses that help the mites cope with heat can also help them withstand pesticides. 

Farmers facing increasingly difficult pest-control challenges need solutions that protect their crops while slowing the development of pesticide resistance.

Raosaheb Yadav, 65, has cultivated cabbage since 1978. He grows three cabbage crops a year and said global warming has made each cycle harder. Pest numbers have increased, and so have the varieties of pests, forcing him to rely on more chemicals. He used to spray every 10 days; now he sprays more than once a week, he said.

He said farmers can no longer wait to spray until they see pests in their fields: “You miss one window, and the next day you will see several pests.”

To make matters worse, some of the insecticides he once relied on have also stopped working effectively, forcing him to use higher concentrations and add a sticker, an additive that helps the pesticide adhere to the plant surface and reduces the amount washed away by rain or irrigation.

The integrated practices recommended by experts could reduce unnecessary pesticide use and slow the development of resistance, but Yadav said he feels unable to weather any short-term losses that could come with switching tactics.

“A farmer can’t afford any losses here because the cost of production is already so high,” he said. If the pests do not die, farmers have little choice but to find another pesticide. “I never imagined pest control would become this difficult.”

//
Categories: I. Climate Science

Off-grid data centers have 60-80% higher emissions

Mon, 11/02/2026 - 12:55

This is a re-post from The Climate Brink

This week I listened to a fascinating Catalyst episode with Olya Irzak of Frost Methane, which featured the eye-opening estimate that 50 GW of new behind-the-meter gas could result in 380 million tonnes of CO2-equivalent over 18 months once methane leaks are taken into account.

This is a real problem. In their rush to power data centers are building the least efficient fossil gas generation, often with high equipment gas leakage, many of which are located in gas production regions that are in turn characterized by high leakage rates.

But its also a problem with a reasonable achievable near-term solution: if we are going to build data centers, we should ensure that they are connected to the grid rather than building dirty off grid gas generators. But to make this case, its important to understand just how much worse off-grid gas turbines are from an emissions standpoint, as shown in the figure below:

Here we examine four potential gas combustion technologies that off grid data centers could use. According to Cleanview’s tracker, simple-cycle turbines are planned for around 46% of off-grid data centers, reciprocating engines ~34%, fuel cells ~14%, unattributed generation around 6%, and on-site combined cycle plants effectively 0% today. These values are weighted by planned datacenter size, but only ~30% of planned capacity has identified equipment, so take these numbers as directional rather than precise.

The calculations here are also a bit generous to off-grid gas, as they use a nation-wide average 2.3% of methane production leaked upstream of generation based on Alvarez et al. 2018 (though more on that assumption later!). The grid numbers are 2023 averages from EPA’s eGRID for ERCOT, PJM and the US as a whole. They include the grid’s own upstream gas leaks, coal-mine methane and 3% transmission losses, all of which push the grid number up. Engine slip comes from EPA’s reporting factors for lean-burn engines, about 2.8% of the methane going in.1 Heat rates come from manufacturer data sheets for the equipment showing up in Cleanview’s tracker of behind-the-meter projects.

Reciprocating engines come out at about 740 kg of CO2-equivalent per megawatt-hour (MWh) and simple-cycle turbines at about 705. That is 63 to 80% more than average grid power in ERCOT, PJM or the US. Methane leakage (including engine slop) adds between 70 and 190 kg per MWh to that gap. But even without methane leakage the gap would be large; on CO2 alone, engines and turbines are 31% to 63% above the grid, because they are quite inefficient at turning gas into electricity.

There are more efficient options that are closer to grid emissions, but these are much more rarely installed today given longer build times or lower equipment availability. Fuel cells (mostly Bloom’s, which represent about 14% of identified behind-the-meter capacity in Cleanview’s data) and an on-site combined-cycle plants only emit 7% to 10% more than the US grid average, and are similar to what a utility would build to serve the same load.

That being said, US electricity grids are decarbonizing over time with the rapid deployment of clean energy. Existing gas that is grid connected can reduce capacity factors when low-cost renewable generation is available in a way that off-grid generators cannot (at least unless they also build on-site renewables or grid connect in the future). There is a real risk that off-grid gas generators become locked in over long periods of time while the rest of the electricity generation system decarbonizes.

Emissions also depend on where the data center is

Off-grid projects are clustered in a few specific regions, and both the local grid and the local gas supply differ a lot in terms of generation mix and leakage rates. So I reran my comparison for seven different datacenter hotspots in Cleanview’s tracker. For each region I used the 2025 grid average from EIA’s hourly grid data (counted on a consumption basis so that imported power is included). Each region also gets an upstream leakage rate for both on-grid and off-grid gas generation measured in the gas basin most likely to supply it, which are measured from aircraft and satellite surveys (e.g. MacKay et al. 2026, Varon et al. 2026, and others).2

The figure below shows how each option compares with the local grid average:

Engines and simple-cycle turbines emit more than the local grid in six of the seven regions, by between 36% and 95%. The exception is Cheyenne, Wyoming, where coal still generates nearly 60% of the grid’s power. There, engines and turbines are comparable to the grid average, but they still emit 55% to 64% more than a new gas combined cycle plant on the grid would. Large new loads can also delay coal plant retirements, which would make plugging into that grid worse than its average suggests.

So what is the path forward here?

Engines and turbines off-grid are the most polluting way to power new load in six of the seven hotspots where data centers are being built today. Fuel cells and efficient on-site plants are roughly as bad as building new gas on the grid, but relatively few data centers are planning on building them near-term.

Data center developers would generally prefer to connect to the grid than build their own off-grid systems. Off-grid systems require more redundancy and higher costs; low-efficiency gas generators or turbines run constantly are very expensive (and high emissions) form of generation. But in many cases its the only option they have, as the timelines associated with getting grid connections are too long or there simply is not sufficient generation available on-grid.

Ultimately we need to make our grids more robust – with new generation met by low-carbon energy sources, a modernized transmission grid, and lots of grid-scale storage – if we want to avoid a world where massive amounts of islanded gas generation gets built in the coming decade. In the meantime we should ensure that any off-grid data centers that are built meet existing air pollution regulations, encourage them to supplement gas with on-site solar and storage, and pursue broader efforts to reduce gas leakage (many of which, unfortunately, have been recently rolled back by the Trump administration).

In case its helpful, I’ve put the code and data to reproduce this analysis on my GitHub here.

1 Engine slip (often called methane slip) is fuel gas that passes through an engine without burning and leaves in the exhaust as methane. In reciprocating engines, some of the fuel-air mixture gets trapped in small gaps around the pistons where the flame can’t reach. Some also blows straight through while the intake and exhaust valves are both open. The lean fuel mixtures these engines use to cut NOx also burn less completely. EPA’s reporting factors for four-stroke lean-burn engines works out to about 2.8% of the methane going in, while modern gas turbines leak only around 0.02%. Running engines at partial load also can raise slip, and Olya Irzak said she has seen measurements as high as 12%, though most off grid data centers are expected to have relatively high capacity factors.

2 Note that for accounting purposes all gas leakage in a basin is being counted against gas production in the basin rather than being counted against oil production, even if the gas produced is associated with oil production.

Categories: I. Climate Science

2026 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #44

Sun, 11/01/2026 - 07:52
A listing of 28 news and opinion articles we found interesting and shared on social media during the past week: Sun, October 25, 2026 thru Sat, October 31, 2026. Stories we promoted this week, by category:

Climate Policy and Politics (7 items)

Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation (5 items)

Climate Science and Research (4 items)

Climate Education and Communication (3 items)

  • Cranky Uncle Greek Thanks to the work of volunteer translators, we'll shortly be releasing the Greek translation of our critical thinking skills-builidng game Cranky Uncle. Skeptical Science, Skeptical Science Team, Oct 25, 2026.
  • This Climate Data Scientist Explains What the Numbers Really Mean The 'climate debate' is no longer about whether the planet is warming but increasingly includes more difficult questions: which solutions can work, how quickly they can scale, and what they cost financially, culturally, and environmentally, These thorny topics are tackled in a new book by data scientist Hannah Ritchie. Atmos, Daphne C. Milner, Oct 26, 2026.
  • Why aren`t Democrats talking about climate? Long story short: Billionaire-backed centrist groups told them not to. But with the midterms days away, is that really a good idea? HEATED, Emily Atkin, Oct 29, 2026.

Health Aspects of Climate Change (3 items)

Public Misunderstandings about Climate Science (2 items)

Public Misunderstandings about Climate Solutions (1 item)

Climate Change Impacts (1 item)

  • Attributing Storm Austen Storm Austen dropped 30-40% more rain because of climate change Climate Lab Book, Ed Hawkins & Rhidian Thomas, Oct 27, 2026.

Climate Law and Justice (1 item)

Miscellaneous (1 item)

If you happen upon high quality climate-science and/or climate-myth busting articles from reliable sources while surfing the web, please feel free to submit them via this Google form so that we may share them widely. Thanks!
Categories: I. Climate Science

Skeptical Science New Research for Week #44 2026

Thu, 10/29/2026 - 09:28
Open access notables

Are Modern Droughts Unprecedented?, Helpap et al., AGU Advances

Global drought variability of past centuries remains poorly understood due to sparse instrumental records and limited paleoclimate reconstructions. Yet, quantifying long-term forced and unforced variability is key for assessing the extremeness of modern (2000–2024) drought events. Here, we combine 20 ensemble members from a 600-year climate simulation (ModE-Sim, 1420–2009) and modern reanalysis data (ERA5-Land, 1950–2024) to place recent droughts in a multi-century context. Drought magnitude and timing are measured using the annual maximum potential cumulative water deficit (PCWD), which integrates atmospheric moisture demand and supply, the daily timing of precipitation events, snow melt, and radiation. We analyze the deviation of modern annual, multi-year mean, and 30-year extreme PCWD from alternative reference periods that sample forced and unforced variability to a variable extent. We find a strong decline in the number of regions with unprecedented modern (2000–2024) single-year and 25-year mean PCWD as the reference is extended into the past and with the additional consideration of unforced atmospheric variability. This is not the case for extreme droughts. 30-year extreme PCWD has increased beyond the range of variability of the last 600 years in over half of all regions globally. This suggests that drought extremes are intensifying more rapidly beyond the range experienced in the past than mean conditions. While individual droughts in the modern era may not appear unprecedented when viewed against a century-long record, the shift in their frequency distribution indicates a rising risk of damaging impacts and an increasing likelihood of droughts reaching unprecedented magnitudes in the near future.

Declining spring production in the Barents Sea ice zone under climate forcing, Zhang et al., Nature Communications

Under anthropogenic forcing, Barents Sea greening and increased annual production are well-documented, yet seasonal differences in production trends are less clear. Here, using satellite ocean color data, we report a 45% decline in spring (April-May) primary production in the nitrate-limited Barents Sea ice zone between 1998 and 2023, corresponding to a reduction of 90.43 mg C m−2 day−1 per decade (p < 0.05). This decline is driven by reduced spring nitrate availability, resulting from slower winter nitrate replenishment rates, increased upstream consumption, and net nitrate export linked to Atlantification. Moreover, a North Atlantic-Arctic atmospheric wave train and reduced freshwater input have deepened the mixed layer, lowering light availability and further limiting production. These findings indicate that continued warming will likely suppress spring production in the Barents Sea ice zone, triggering nutrient-driven cascading effects on Arctic food webs and biodiversity.

Future Decline of Ice-Algal Primary Productivity in the Arctic Ocean: Model Intercomparison, Zhang et al., Journal of Geophysical Research Oceans

In polar oceans, ice algae grow within and beneath sea ice, supporting marine food web and contributing to the marine carbon cycle. This study compares three sea ice–ocean models developed in Japan, Canada, and Australia to estimate the changes in Arctic ice-algal primary production (ice-PP) from the mid-20th century to the end of the 21st century under a high greenhouse-gas emission scenario. All three models show that ice-PP is high in shelf seas, such as the Chukchi and Laptev Seas, and lowest in the central Arctic Ocean. Two models project an overall ice-PP decline in all Arctic sub-regions, because reductions in sea ice and nutrient availability outweigh the benefits of increased light penetration. However, one model projects a temporary increase in ice-PP in Pacific-side and central Arctic regions during the mid-21st century, when the improved light condition dominates. Additional model experiments demonstrate that inter-model differences are strongly influenced by the representation of light utilization. These results highlight the need for improved observations and experiments to better constrain future Arctic ice algae projections.

Accounting for global carbon dioxide production from human metabolism between 1985 and 2015: a modelling study, Gonzalez et al., The Lancet Planetary Health 

Human activity is a dominant driver of global carbon emissions, yet one universal source–human metabolism–has never been quantified using free-living measurements of carbon dioxide (CO2) production at scale. We aimed to describe the contribution of human metabolism to global CO2 emissions between 1985 and 2015. In this modelling study, we used the largest available database of doubly labelled water (DLW) measurements from 1986 to 2019. The other data sources comprised WHO Global Health Observatory, United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, and Non-communicable Disease Risk Factor Collaboration. We first allometrically modelled human CO2 production (kg per year) using measurements available for 4479 female and 2277 male participants from the International Atomic Energy Agency DLW database to derive predicted estimates of human CO2 production adjusted for differences in body mass and sex. Second, by combining predicted estimates based on allometric scaling of CO2 production for body mass with available population demographic information, generalised additive models were used to describe the 30-year progression of human body mass and per capita and global CO2 production. We used the time-series country-specific measurements from 1985 to 2015 with population-level global human metabolic CO2 production summarised as cumulative sum for the progression analyses. Data were collected between 1986 and 2019. Mean ± SD (range) participant age was 40 ± 26 (0 to 101) and body mass was 63.3 ± 27.8 (2.4 to 101.9). 9006 measurements from 6756 participants (4479 women and 2277 men) from the DLW database were used to derive estimates of human CO2 production adjusted for differences in body mass and sex. We observed that human metabolic CO2 production approximately doubled over a 30-year period, from 1·18 Gt per year to 2·05 Gt per year. This increase was driven mostly by population growth (>60%) with a minor contribution from increases in body mass. Per capita sex differences equalised at the population level, and continental differences reflect population shifts rather than physiological differences, with Asia accounting for the majority of human metabolic CO2 production among all continents. Our findings suggest that human metabolism is a quantitatively important component of the fast carbon cycle and should be accounted for in carbon system modelling to enhance precision and fidelity. With a projected peak global population in the mid-to-late 21st century, metabolic CO2 production will increasingly contribute to global carbon fluxes. Does populist anti-climate rhetoric drive public opposition to climate policy? Testing socio-cultural and economic frames, Bolet et al., Environmental Politics Right-wing populist (RWP) parties increasingly oppose climate policies, framing them as economically costly or imposed by an out-of-touch elite. Yet, little is known about the impact of such rhetoric on individuals or whether counter-frames can mitigate its effects. Using a pre-registered, UK-based survey experiment, we test whether exposure to either of these anti-climate frames influences attitudes and behaviour towards the UK’s ‘net-zero’ goal. We also test whether a counter-frame could alleviate these effects. We find both negative frames reduce support for net zero, with the economic frame showing stronger, more robust effects than the socio-cultural frame, and the counter-frame was ineffective. Still, even among those exposed to the negative economic frame, a majority supported the net zero goal (58%) and related policies (55%). Nonetheless, this study highlights the challenge to climate policy posed by RWP parties and suggests mere promises of compensatory benefits may be insufficient to build popular support. Does climate policy kill jobs? Assessing the gap between the measured and perceived job transition risk in Western Canada, Rhodes et al., Energy Policy Compulsory climate policies, including carbon taxes and regulations, have been framed in terms of threats to employment. The ‘job-killing’ narrative has been particularly strong in Canada, where economic concerns have been tied to the consumer carbon tax, leading to its elimination in April 2025. Using a representative web-based survey of communities with fossil fuel-dependent employment in Western Canada (n?=?1665), our study aims to: (1) introduce and validate an empirical measure of the perceptions gap between perceived and measured job risk from climate policy, (2) identify the socio-economic, political, and regional determinants of the perceptions gap, and (3) assess how measured risk, perceived risk, and the perceptions gap are associated with support for specific climate policies. We find that perceived and measured job risk are positively correlated, but respondents systematically overestimate risk. Perceived job risk is highest in oil- and gas-producing Alberta, Saskatchewan, and northeastern British Columbia. Sectoral emissions intensity is the strongest predictor of perceived risk. The perceptions gap narrows with higher education and trust in scientists, but widens with income insecurity, right-leaning ideology, and especially engagement with climate delay discourses, which has the largest association. Both measured and perceived risk, and the gap between them, reduce support for most climate policies, particularly industry-focused policies. In contrast, perceived risk and the gap are not significantly associated with support for the fossil fuel consumption tax, suggesting industry policies are seen as more direct threats to employment. The study helps support climate-energy communication and decision-making. From this week's government/NGO section:

Protecting Health in the Age of Climate Disinformation: Safeguarding information integrity in the context of climate change and health, Schran et al., WHO Civil Society Working Group on Climate and Health

The authors discuss how climate disinformation directly and indirectly harms human health around the world, from undermining emergency warnings and public-health guidance to delaying policies on air pollution, clean energy and fossil fuels. Case studies highlighted in the report show that climate disinformation interacts with existing inequalities and power structures. The case studies include wildfire misinformation in Canada and Maui, backlash against London’s Ultra Low Emission Zone, cascading climate and information risks during floods in South Sudan, fossil fuel greenwashing, development narratives affecting Indigenous Peoples in Indonesia, and attacks on scientists, journalists and environmental defenders. Those trying to provide evidence can also become targets.

The 2026 report of the Lancet Countdown on health and climate change: a decade of escalating health harms and a decisive moment for all, Romanello et al., Lancet

The authors found that health effects are escalating faster than climate action with experts calling for climate change to be declared a global health emergency. While progress has been made to deliver real health gains through clean energy investment, health system leadership and health-protecting legislation, these positive signs are not enough to offset the harm from the impacts of fossil-fuel driven climate change. The report represents the work of 146 experts from 71 collaborating institutions, monitoring progress across 54 indicators, including four new indicators introduced this year, providing the most comprehensive assessment yet of the links between climate change and health. 214 articles in 80 journals by 1137 contributing authors

Physical science of climate change, effects

Atmospheric Adjustments Drive Long-Term Weakening of the Zonal Sea Surface Temperature Gradient in the Tropical Atlantic, Liu et al., Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres Open Access pdf 10.1029/2026jd046795

Drivers of Compound Marine Heatwaves and Acidity Extremes in the Southern Ocean, Wong et al., Global Biogeochemical Cycles Open Access 10.1029/2026gb009430

Earth’s east–west albedo symmetry, Zhang et al., Nature Open Access 10.1038/s41586-026-10624-2

Inter-hemispheric contrast in the sensitivity of polar amplification to sea-ice coverage conditions, Chung et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-026-04185-5

Responses of extreme fire weather to CO2 emission reductions and underlying mechanisms, Kim et al., Science Advances Open Access pdf 10.1126/sciadv.adw4705

The circulation and water mass (trans)formations in the Arctic Mediterranean Sea and their implications for the deep ocean circulation: a narrative, Rudels & Carmack, Ocean science Open Access 10.5194/os-22-3287-2026

Towards a theory for Earth’s albedo stability and hemispheric symmetry in the 21st Century, Feldman et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-026-03817-0

Tropospheric Ozone Assessment Report II: ozone interactions with climate change: drivers and long-term trends, Szopa et al., Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A Mathematical Physical and Engineering Sciences Open Access 10.1098/rsta.2025.0272

Why was the mid-to-late summer precipitation variability in the Yangtze River abnormally enlarged since late 1990s?, WANG et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2026.10.005

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago: In silico modelling of radiative efficiencies of anthropogenic greenhouse gases, Atmospheric Environment, 10.1016/j.atmosenv.2024.120839 14 cites.

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Observations of climate change, effects

Are Modern Droughts Unprecedented?, Helpap et al., AGU Advances Open Access 10.1029/2026av002536

Changes in Climatic Seasons and Climate Comfort in the Tibetan Plateau and Its Eastern Adjacent Regions Under Global Warming, Shang et al., International Journal of Climatology 10.1002/joc.70633

Climate Change Impacts on Wind Extremes: What Are the Trends and What Should Wind Engineers Do?, Turner & Wu, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 10.1175/bams-d-26-0193.1

Extensive glacier loss in the coterminous United States, Fountain et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Open Access pdf 10.1073/pnas.2600941123

Late Holocene reexpansion of the Laurentide Ice Sheet, Young et al., Science 10.1126/science.aed3379

Recent Trends of Utah’s Changing Wintertime Weather and Climate Characteristics, Meyer et al., Journal of Climate 10.1175/jcli-d-25-0543.1

Sharp rise of autumn heat extremes over southern China in a warmer climate, Wang et al., Atmospheric Research 10.1016/j.atmosres.2026.109406

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago: The fastest-growing and most destructive fires in the US (2001 to 2020), Science, 10.1126/science.adk5737 108 cites.

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Instrumentation & observational methods of climate change, effects

Choosing the Right Sea Surface Temperature Datasets: Benchmarking and Guidance for Climate Applications, Chan et al., Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society pdf 10.1175/bams-d-25-0210.1

Inconsistency in assessments of fire frequency and severity dynamics across Canada’s boreal ecosystems, Fu et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology Open Access 10.1016/j.agrformet.2026.111372

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago: Characterizing heatwaves based on land surface energy budget, Communications Earth & Environment, 10.1038/s43247-024-01784-y 22 cites.

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Modeling, simulation & projection of climate change, effects

AMOC weakening across latitude and time in CMIP6 future scenarios, Ashton-Key et al., Ocean science Open Access 10.5194/os-22-3245-2026

Circulation Pattern Associated With Record 2025–26 North American Winter May Become More Common, Johnson et al., Earth s Future Open Access pdf 10.1029/2026ef009943

Does the Evolution of Indian Ocean Acidification Follow CMIP6 Projections Under a High-Emission Scenario?, Ghoshal et al., Journal of Geophysical Research Oceans 10.1029/2026jc024515

Increased southward swings of the South Indian convergence zone under greenhouse warming, Wang et al., Nature Climate Change 10.1038/s41558-026-02767-x

Quantifying Projected Hydroclimate Changes per Degree of Global Warming over the Contiguous United States, Stebbins & McCrary, Journal of Hydrometeorology 10.1175/jhm-d-26-0057.1

Tropical Cyclone Activity in the Vicinity of Hawai‘i in Present and Future Climates, Murray et al., Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology 10.1175/jamc-d-25-0198.1

Two components underlie the mixed-type El Niño: quantification and future projection, Lianyi et al., Frontiers in Climate Open Access 10.3389/fclim.2026.1969365

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago: Historical and Future Asymmetry of ENSO Teleconnections with Extremes, Journal of Climate, 10.1175/jcli-d-23-0619.1 20 cites.

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Advancement of climate & climate effects modeling, simulation & projection

Does the Beaufort Gyre Freshwater Storage Directly Respond to Changes in Bering Strait Inflow? Insights From NEMO Modeling Experiments, Fu et al., Journal of Geophysical Research Oceans Open Access 10.1029/2025jc023782

Emulating absent land processes reduces carbon budgets in CMIP6 models, Liddicoat et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-026-04111-9

Evaluation of Dust Optical Depth in CMIP6 Simulations over the Middle East–North Africa Region, Dayanandan et al., Atmospheric Environment 10.1016/j.atmosenv.2026.122431

Stratospheric aerosol forcing for CMIP7 – Part 2: Volcanic sulfur dioxide emissions, Aubry et al., Geoscientific model development Open Access pdf 10.5194/gmd-19-10155-2026

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago: Evaluating the phase evolution of CMIP GCMs for agricultural climate-change impact assessments in China, Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 10.1016/j.agrformet.2024.110282 6 cites.

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Cryosphere & climate change

Can a simple geoengineering approach restore dwindling Arctic ice?, Irfan, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Open Access pdf 10.1073/pnas.2630778123

Extensive glacier loss in the coterminous United States, Fountain et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Open Access pdf 10.1073/pnas.2600941123

Inter-hemispheric contrast in the sensitivity of polar amplification to sea-ice coverage conditions, Chung et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-026-04185-5

Regime shift in high arctic fjord signals the vulnerability of the Arctic’s Last Ice Area, Bonneau et al., Scientific Reports Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41598-026-68201-6

What Is the Observed Sensitivity of Arctic Sea Ice?, Rauschenbach et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1029/2026gl124943

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago: Review article: Retrogressive thaw slump characteristics and terminology, The Cryosphere, 10.5194/tc-18-4787-2024 62 cites.

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Sea level & climate change

Enhanced risk to India’s west coast: Bias-corrected high-resolution CMIP6 projections of regional sea level rise, Joseph & Manoj, Dynamics of Atmospheres and Oceans 10.1016/j.dynatmoce.2026.101696

Paleoclimate & paleogeochemistry

A transient global warming event during Earth’s penultimate icehouse, Yao et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Open Access 10.1073/pnas.2601643123

Assessing the MIS 5.3 and MIS 5.1 sea-levels along the Tyrrhenian Sea coast of central Italy: A challenge for ice volume models?, Bulian et al., Global and Planetary Change 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2026.105585

Impact of Ocean Physical Conditions on Oceanic Carbon Pumps and Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide at the Last Glacial Maximum, Nishida et al., Paleoceanography and Paleoclimatology Open Access pdf 10.1029/2026pa005487

Net Carbon Transfer From Ocean to Land During the Last Deglaciation Synchronous With Sea Level Rise and Lagging Atmospheric CO2 by Several Millennia, Köhler & Mulitza, Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2026gl123828

Ocean carbon sequestration during glacial climates due to combined Antarctic sea ice expansion and ocean circulation change, Grégorio et al., Science Advances Open Access pdf 10.1126/sciadv.ady6777

Past abrupt changes in Atlantic Ocean currents controlled the Earth’s energy balance, [authors did not process], Nature Geoscience 10.1038/s41561-026-02086-y

The Franks Model CO2 Proxy: Do Assimilation Rate Values or Isotopic Corrections Optimize CO2 Reconstruction Accuracy?, Morck et al., Paleoceanography and Paleoclimatology Open Access 10.1029/2025pa005350

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago: Artificial intelligence reveals past climate extremes by reconstructing historical records, Nature Communications, 10.1038/s41467-024-53464-2 27 cites.

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Biology & climate change, related geochemistry

Can oxygen supersaturation enhance thermal resilience in marine organisms?, D'Aniello et al., Marine Environmental Research Open Access 10.1016/j.marenvres.2026.108358

Changes in species composition of South Georgia seabirds and mammals 1985–2023: decrease in opportunities for local enhancement?, Monier et al., Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B Biological Sciences Open Access pdf 10.1098/rstb.2025.0363

Climatic variability and trends in Sudan’s savannah woodlands: implications for ecosystem resilience, Saeed et al., Frontiers in Forests and Global Change Open Access pdf 10.3389/ffgc.2026.1863836

Declining spring production in the Barents Sea ice zone under climate forcing, Zhang et al., Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-026-79272-4

Elevated CO2 Increases the Canopy Temperature of Mature Quercus robur (Pedunculate Oak), Brown et al., Global Change Biology Open Access pdf 10.1111/gcb.70565

Environmental stress amplifies midday depression of photosynthesis across global ecosystems, Liu et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 10.1016/j.agrformet.2026.111540

Functional restructuring of kelp forest macroinvertebrate communities under tropicalisation, Attlan et al., Marine Environmental Research Open Access 10.1016/j.marenvres.2026.108465

Future Decline of Ice-Algal Primary Productivity in the Arctic Ocean: Model Intercomparison, Zhang et al., Journal of Geophysical Research Oceans Open Access pdf 10.1029/2026jc024067

Has drought limitation on Larix principis-rupprechtii growth expanded to higher altitudes in semiarid northern China?, Yang et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 10.1016/j.agrformet.2026.111547

How is climate change affecting conifers and their ability to sequester carbon?, Abraham, Nature 10.1038/d41586-026-02847-0

Marine heat waves in vulnerable coral reef regions are skillfully predictable on multi-year timescales, Karwat et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-026-78279-1

Net primary productivity in the Gulf of California: spatio-temporal patterns and drivers in a warming climate (2003–2024), González-Rodríguez et al., Ocean science Open Access pdf 10.5194/os-22-3385-2026

Persistent seasonal deoxygenation alters benthic metabolic processes and accelerates hypoxia feedbacks in the Baltic Sea, Alampalli et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-026-04120-8

Putting a time scale on emerging climate change stressors: a Vulnerability Index for Atlantic Ocean marine ecosystem services, Loveridge et al., Global Environmental Change Open Access 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2026.103251

Recovery without resilience? Contrasting benthic recovery trajectories six years after a mass coral bleaching event, Elma et al., Marine Environmental Research Open Access 10.1016/j.marenvres.2026.108223

Shrinking windows: Asymmetric climatic drivers shorten phenological intervals in subtropical plants, Zhang et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 10.1016/j.agrformet.2026.111514

The future of tanner’s sumac (Rhus coriaria) in a warming world, Ç?v?a, Scientific Reports Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41598-026-72862-8

Vegetation increasingly controlled by atmospheric dryness rather than soil moisture, Williams, Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres Open Access pdf 10.1029/2008jd009930

What Does the Future Hold? Habitat Suitability and Conservation Implications for Rare and Widespread Plant Species Under Climate Change, Lopes et al., Diversity and Distributions Open Access pdf 10.1111/ddi.70252

What’s cooking? The effect of temperature on the immune response, Lied, Journal of Gastrointestinal & Digestive System 10.4172/2161-069x-c1-061

Will the Mediterranean Sea Be a Cul-de-Sac for Marine Gastropods Under Climate Change?, Giannini et al., Ecology and Evolution Open Access 10.1002/ece3.73677

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago: No Future Growth Enhancement Expected at the Northern Edge for European Beech due to Continued Water Limitation, Global Change Biology, 10.1111/gcb.17546 57 cites.

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GHG sources & sinks, flux, related geochemistry

A hybrid artificial neural network approach to forecasting CO? emissions in the United States under policy uncertainty and energy consumption, Athari et al., Scientific Reports Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41598-026-77197-y

Are ghost forest trees a substantial source of methane from reservoirs?, Dittmann et al., Biogeosciences Open Access pdf 10.5194/bg-23-4893-2026

Assessment of methane emissions from European countries using satellite and surface observations, Sun et al., Atmospheric chemistry and physics Open Access pdf 10.5194/acp-26-14981-2026

Can radon help to improve methane emission estimates? Results from a dual-tracer inversion, Maier et al., Atmospheric chemistry and physics Open Access pdf 10.5194/acp-26-14699-2026

Can the Carbon Storage Function of a Degraded Mountain Wet Meadow Be Restored?, Cooper et al., Journal of Geophysical Research Biogeosciences Open Access pdf 10.1029/2026jg009823

CH4 emissions from Northern Europe wetlands: compared data assimilation approaches, Monteil et al., Atmospheric chemistry and physics Open Access pdf 10.5194/acp-25-14251-2025

China’s lake expansion amplified rapid CO2 emissions, Feng et al., Science Advances Open Access pdf 10.1126/sciadv.aea4657

China’s lakes remain carbon sources: Insights from the balance between intrinsic carbon sequestration and emissions, Wang et al., Science Advances Open Access pdf 10.1126/sciadv.aed7393

Combined water table and temperature dynamics control CO2 emission estimates from drained peatlands under rewetting and climate change scenarios, Denager et al., Biogeosciences Open Access pdf 10.5194/bg-23-441-2026

Constraining African Fire CO2 Emissions During 2015–2016 Using Satellite XCO2 Retrievals, Lv et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1029/2025gl117400

Dark CO2 fixation in soils: A meta-analysis of mechanisms and controlling factors, Maree et al., Animal Frontiers Open Access 10.1093/af/vfae050

Development of a parametrised atmospheric NOx chemistry scheme to help quantify fossil fuel CO2 emission estimates, Schooling et al., Atmospheric chemistry and physics Open Access 10.5194/acp-25-15631-2025

Diel variability affects the inorganic carbon system in the sea-surface microlayer and influences air-sea CO2 flux estimates, Lopéz-Puertas et al., Ocean science Open Access pdf 10.5194/os-21-3471-2025

Drivers of CO2 emissions during the dry phase in Mediterranean and Temperate ponds, Aragón et al., Biogeosciences Open Access pdf 10.5194/bg-23-181-2026

Dynamics and burial of sedimentary organic carbon in the changing Arctic shelf seas, Hu et al., Earth-Science Reviews 10.1016/j.earscirev.2026.105737

Enhanced Carbon Sink Through Medium-Level Tropical Cyclones in the Offshore East China Sea, Ma et al., Global Biogeochemical Cycles 10.1029/2026gb009070

Fine-scale spatial variability of winter CO2 and CH4 fluxes in Arctic tundra derived from snowpack gradient measurements, Gosselin et al., Biogeosciences Open Access 10.5194/bg-23-7447-2026

How is climate change affecting conifers and their ability to sequester carbon?, Abraham, Nature 10.1038/d41586-026-02847-0

Intertidal mussel–symbiont associations act as CO2 sinks during daily emersion, Spilmont et al., Biology Letters 10.1098/rsbl.2025.0498

Partitioning Methane Sources and Diffusive Flux Along the US Cascadia Margin Reveals Dominant Influences of Localized and Ephemeral Features, Dugan et al., Global Biogeochemical Cycles 10.1029/2026gb009143

Quantifying European SF6 emissions from 2005 to 2021 using a large inversion ensemble, Vojta et al., Atmospheric chemistry and physics Open Access 10.5194/acp-25-15197-2025

Reforestation dominated China’s forest carbon sink from 1986 to 2019, Xu et al., Nature Geoscience 10.1038/s41561-026-02074-2

Regionalized greenhouse gas emissions and infrastructure requirements for future global iron and steel production, Terlouw et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-026-04129-z

Response of the Southern Ocean Air-Sea CO2 Flux to Positive and Negative Emissions, Keppler & Landschützer, Scientific Reports Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41598-019-43826-y

Restoration-induced litter accumulation caused a CO2 leakage in a Tibetan alpine steppe, Qi et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 10.1016/j.agrformet.2026.111530

Seasonal trends in China’s net ecosystem productivity: Offset characteristics and shifts in driving forces against the background of abrupt changes, Zhang & Xia, Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 10.1016/j.agrformet.2026.111428

Silent Alarms? Unveiling Destabilization Risk in Terrestrial Ecosystem Carbon Fluxes, Andrade et al., Global Change Biology Open Access pdf 10.1111/gcb.71100

Source or Sink? Precipitation Shapes Future Terrestrial Carbon Uptake in Australia, Bennett et al., Journal of Geophysical Research Biogeosciences Open Access pdf 10.1029/2026jg009820

Spatial Variation of Post-Fire Aboveground Carbon Accumulation Rates in Young Forests North of 45°N, Zhou et al., Global Biogeochemical Cycles Open Access pdf 10.1029/2026gb009207

Synoptic Features Driving the CO2 Sink in the Mediterranean Sea in Winter, Reale et al., Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres Open Access pdf 10.1029/2025jd044310

Tropospheric Ozone Assessment Report II: ozone interactions with climate change: drivers and long-term trends, Szopa et al., Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A Mathematical Physical and Engineering Sciences Open Access 10.1098/rsta.2025.0272

Unexpected Inter-Annual Variability in Methane Emissions From Western Siberia’s Oil and Gas Sector, Taguchi et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1029/2026gl122886

[Articles] Accounting for global carbon dioxide production from human metabolism between 1985 and 2015: a modelling study, Gonzalez et al., The Lancet Planetary Health Open Access 10.1016/j.lanplh.2026.101546

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago: Spatio-temporal effects of urbanization on CO2 emissions: Evidences from 268 Chinese cities, Energy Policy, 10.1016/j.enpol.2023.113569 77 cites.

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CO2 capture, sequestration science & engineering

Artificial upwelling via Stommel pipes under present and future climate conditions: an Earth system model assessment, Jürchott & Kemper, Frontiers in Climate Open Access pdf 10.3389/fclim.2026.1938661

Co–Cu Bimetallic–Modified ATP Catalysts for Efficient and Low-Energy CO2 Capture, Jiang & Han, Greenhouse Gases Science and Technology 10.1002/ghg.2391

Distinguishing the gas and water sides of the gas–water interface: Where do amines capture CO2 in microdroplets?, Zhang et al., Atmospheric Environment 10.1016/j.atmosenv.2026.122261

Vortex Flow: A Green Process Intensification Strategy for Absorption-Based CO2 Capture, Zhao et al., Greenhouse Gases Science and Technology 10.1002/ghg.70010

Wellbore Interface and Cement Defects in CO2 Geological Storage: A Review, Citalingam et al., Greenhouse Gases Science and Technology 10.1002/ghg.70012

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago: Comprehensive review of CO2 geological storage: Exploring principles, mechanisms, and prospects, Earth-Science Reviews, 10.1016/j.earscirev.2023.104672 413 cites.

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Decarbonization

Against all odds? Explaining the new clean hydrogen strategy of the European Union, Eikeland et al., Energy Research & Social Science 10.1016/j.erss.2026.104921

Analysis of low carbon transformation strategy and CO2 emission metabolism in the steel industry, Li et al., Journal of Industrial Ecology 10.1111/jiec.70110

Beyond degrees Celsius: Mapping competing justice scenarios in Australia's energy transition, Velge et al., Energy Research & Social Science Open Access pdf 10.1016/j.erss.2026.105040

From least cost to more just: Exploring the ability of optimisation models to represent energy justice considerations in low-carbon transitions, Laes et al., Environmental Science & Policy 10.1016/j.envsci.2026.104514

Green energy transition in China’s primary aluminum industry: economic evaluation and pathways, ZHANG et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access pdf 10.1016/j.accre.2026.06.031

How has the public in the United States supported renewable energy? ?A longitudinal study from 2010 to 2023, Hao, Environmental Sociology 10.1080/23251042.2026.2711921

Is there enough trust for a low carbon transition in the Arctic? Exploring public expectations for renewable energy in Longyearbyen, Julsrud & Standal, Climate Policy Open Access pdf 10.1080/14693062.2026.2691435

Leveraging existing grid infrastructure for rapid US renewable and storage deployment, Chojkiewicz et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Open Access 10.1073/pnas.2603919123

Where to charge? A data-driven national framework for locating and sizing electric freight charging infrastructure in Colombia, Gil et al., Energy Sustainable Development/Energy for sustainable development Open Access 10.1016/j.esd.2026.102044

Wind Energy Futures: Which Locations Across the Western U.S. Are Most Resilient to Environmental Change?, Liu et al., Earth s Future Open Access 10.1029/2026ef008184

Would you let your car feed the grid? Comparing vehicle-to-grid smart charging preferences across six European countries, Jensen et al., Energy Research & Social Science Open Access 10.1016/j.erss.2026.104855

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago: Transition to zero-net emissions for Qatar: A policy based on Hydrogen and CO2 capture & storage development, Energy Policy, 10.1016/j.enpol.2022.113256 30 cites.

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Geoengineering climate

Impacts of water advection and CO2 exchange on the carbon dioxide removal potential of ocean alkalinity enhancement, Moras et al., Biogeosciences Open Access pdf 10.5194/bg-23-7523-2026

Lethal by Design? Resolving Differences Between Experimental and Real-World Alkalinity Perturbations in Ocean Alkalinity Enhancement, Bach et al., Journal of Geophysical Research Oceans Open Access 10.1029/2025jc023598

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago: Ocean alkalinity enhancement approaches and the predictability of runaway precipitation processes: results of an experimental study to determine critical alkalinity ranges for safe and sustainable application scenarios, Biogeosciences, 10.5194/bg-21-4587-2024 46 cites.

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Black carbon

Black carbon aerosols intensified India’s 2015 mega heatwave and expanded heat stress exposure, Tiwari et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-026-04157-9

The Hidden Health and Climate Burden of Black Carbon under China’s Dual Carbon Strategy, Xu et al., Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-026-77632-8

Aerosols

Aerosol–cloud interactions influence the climate response to AMOC weakening, Vella & Lohmann, Atmospheric chemistry and physics Open Access pdf 10.5194/acp-26-14939-2026

Stratospheric aerosol forcing for CMIP7 – Part 2: Volcanic sulfur dioxide emissions, Aubry et al., Geoscientific model development Open Access pdf 10.5194/gmd-19-10155-2026

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago: Increasing cross-border dust storm from Mongolia to China during 1987–2022, Global and Planetary Change, 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2024.104578 23 cites.

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Climate change communications & cognition

Assessing the integration of climate change education in Sri Lanka’s secondary education system, Senavirathna, Climate Policy 10.1080/14693062.2026.2725470

Can Moral Framing Reduce Climate Change Polarization? Textual and Experimental Evidence from Norway, Enstad & Thorbjørnsrud, Environmental Communication Open Access 10.1080/17524032.2026.2623481

Climate Change Perception and Eco-Anxiety among Young Adults in Sub-Saharan Africa: Does Environmental Literacy Play a Role?, Odo et al., Global Social Welfare 10.1007/s40609-026-00468-z

Do climate change knowledge and risk perceptions drive flood preparedness? Evidence from New Orleans, Jayasinghe et al., Climate Risk Management Open Access pdf 10.1016/j.crm.2026.100852

Do climate emotions matter? Investigating their role in pro-environmental behavior, Blumenschein et al., Journal of Environmental Psychology Open Access 10.1016/j.jenvp.2026.103092

Do weather-related extreme events influence climate-related opinions? The case of the 2019–2020 Australian Black Summer bushfires, Andreotta et al., Royal Society Open Science Open Access 10.1098/rsos.251450

Does populist anti-climate rhetoric drive public opposition to climate policy? Testing socio-cultural and economic frames, Bolet et al., Environmental Politics Open Access pdf 10.1080/09644016.2026.2731598

Engaging through enraging: Does inciting anger about climate change increase support for climate action?, Stanley et al., Journal of Environmental Psychology Open Access 10.1016/j.jenvp.2026.103074

Framing Climate Change in Children’s Picture Books: A Qualitative Study of Authors and Illustrators, Shelford, Environmental Communication Open Access 10.1080/17524032.2026.2716354

Global warming and the National Cattlemen’s Association 1986–1996, Jacquet & Loy, PLOS Climate Open Access pdf 10.1371/journal.pclm.0001061

Greenwashing the future? Computational text analysis of environmental reporting from the fossil fuel industry, Rauner, Climate Policy 10.1080/14693062.2025.2603031

Hacking adaptation: What role can policy hackathons play in understanding and adapting to climate change impacts?, McEvoy et al., Environmental Science & Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.envsci.2026.104516

What Makes Climate Change Feel Distant? Evidence from Eight Countries in the Global North and South, Ejaz et al., Journal of Environmental Psychology Open Access pdf 10.1016/j.jenvp.2026.103180

What’s next? How arts-based and creative participatory methods can address the problem of climate assembly follow-up, Carrick et al., Climate Policy Open Access 10.1080/14693062.2026.2685651

Whispers of Change: Positive Climate Communication Through ASMR and Its Potential for Climate Engagement, Blessing & Kalch, Environmental Communication Open Access 10.1080/17524032.2026.2753498

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago: Demographics shape public preferences for carbon dioxide removal and solar geoengineering interventions across 30 countries, Communications Earth & Environment, 10.1038/s43247-024-01800-1 13 cites.

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Agronomy, animal husbundry, food production & climate change

A bottom-up quantification of greenhouse gas emissions and mitigation potential in Kenya's crop and livestock systems, Kakai et al., Frontiers in Climate Open Access pdf 10.3389/fclim.2026.1920404

Advancing agricultural risk assessment through entropy-weighted TOPSIS and the IPCC framework: Insights from the Eastern Himalayas, Sonowal & Malakar, Environment Development and Sustainability 10.1007/s10668-026-08204-5

Can seaweed mitigate methane from cows on a global scale?, DiCorato, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Open Access 10.1073/pnas.2626533123

CO2 Rise Directly Impairs Crop Nutritional Quality, Kakaraparthi et al., Frontiers in Public Health Open Access pdf 10.3389/fpubh.2025.1674328

Heterogeneous impacts of fire-sourced ozone (O3) pollution on global crop yields in the future climate scenarios, Li et al., Atmospheric chemistry and physics Open Access pdf 10.5194/acp-25-14501-2025

How much climate-smart agriculture is enough? A dose-response analysis of technology adoption effects on farmer welfare in Ghana, Prah et al., PLOS Climate Open Access pdf 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000886

Potential distribution of the cashew tree (Anacardium occidentale) in the Caatinga under CMIP6 climate projections from EC-Earth3-Veg and MIROC6, Vieira et al., Frontiers in Earth Science Open Access pdf 10.3389/feart.2026.1751554

Quantifying the contribution of cultivar parameter variation to uncertainty in future warming impacts on wheat yields across China's major winter wheat regions, Liujun et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 10.1016/j.agrformet.2026.111559

Spain’s seafood futures to 2050 under climate change and contrasting transition scenarios, Saralegui-Díez et al., Scientific Reports Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41598-026-60217-2

Sustainable or maladaptive? A systematic review of climate adaptation strategies among smallholder farmers in SADC and South India, Wynsberghe, AI and Ethics Open Access pdf 10.1007/s43681-021-00043-6

Towards realistic representation of forest management and stand age dynamics in a terrestrial biosphere model (DLEM): impacts on forest carbon dynamics in the Southeastern United States, Li et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 10.1016/j.agrformet.2026.111539

Win-win or window dressing? Opportunity and opposition to agrivoltaics in the United States, Donnison et al., Energy Research & Social Science Open Access pdf 10.1016/j.erss.2026.104940

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago: Long-term carbon storage in shelf sea sediments reduced by intensive bottom trawling, Nature Geoscience, 10.1038/s41561-024-01581-4 54 cites.

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Hydrology, hydrometeorology & climate change

Anthropogenic groundwater declines may exert far-reaching climatic impacts, Paldor & Paldor, Scientific Reports Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41598-026-75635-5

Are Modern Droughts Unprecedented?, Helpap et al., AGU Advances Open Access 10.1029/2026av002536

Attribution of Changes in European Flood and Drought Magnitudes to Climatic and Socioeconomic Drivers, Tilloy et al., Earth s Future Open Access 10.1029/2025ef007858

Disentangling climate change and urbanization effects on future tropical cyclone compound flood hazards, Liu et al., Urban Climate Open Access 10.1016/j.uclim.2026.103199

Enhanced extremes without intensification of South America’s water cycle from 1980 to 2010, Zarei & Destouni, Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-026-03661-2

Improved climate services in Hawai‘i: the collaborative development of drought-related decision support tools, Longman et al., Frontiers in Climate Open Access pdf 10.3389/fclim.2026.1768549

Integrating machine learning to assess climate risks on reservoir’s inflow and hydropower generation across West African basins, Akaffou et al., PLOS Climate Open Access pdf 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000986

On the Stability and Sensitivity of Climate-Informed Flood Frequency Models, Bae et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1029/2026gl124039

Quantifying Projected Hydroclimate Changes per Degree of Global Warming over the Contiguous United States, Stebbins & McCrary, Journal of Hydrometeorology 10.1175/jhm-d-26-0057.1

Tropical Cyclone Activity in the Vicinity of Hawai‘i in Present and Future Climates, Murray et al., Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology 10.1175/jamc-d-25-0198.1

Why Does a Shallow Land Model Underestimate the Dryland Drying Trends?, Zhang et al., Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres 10.1029/2026jd046571

Why was the mid-to-late summer precipitation variability in the Yangtze River abnormally enlarged since late 1990s?, WANG et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2026.10.005

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago: Strong Linkage Between Observed Daily Precipitation Extremes and Anthropogenic Emissions Across the Contiguous United States, Geophysical Research Letters, 10.1029/2024gl109553 5 cites.

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Climate change economics

Balancing climate ambition and price stability: The case of South Africa’s carbon tax, Lartey, Energy Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.enpol.2026.115483

Bridging innovation and investment: the Paris Agreement’s effect on green and brown US-listed energy stocks, Barrales-Ruiz & Neudörfer, Climate Policy 10.1080/14693062.2026.2713884

Climate at what cost? A survey experiment on trade-offs between decarbonization ambitions and socioeconomic costs, Duin et al., Energy Research & Social Science Open Access pdf 10.1016/j.erss.2026.104877

Climate finance and women’s employment in the CEMAC region: a catalyst for gender equality?, Zitou & Zitou, Climate and Development Open Access pdf 10.1080/17565529.2026.2691368

Closing the climate–economics communication gap, Rosenthal, ISLE Interdisciplinary Studies in Literature and Environment 10.1093/isle/isz105

Does climate policy kill jobs? Assessing the gap between the measured and perceived job transition risk in Western Canada, Rhodes et al., Energy Policy Open Access pdf 10.1016/j.enpol.2026.115628

Obstacles to Sub-Saharan Africa’s clean energy transition: the ‘tyranny of sovereign ratings’, Kruger et al., Climate Policy Open Access pdf 10.1080/14693062.2026.2719104

Sustainable finance taxonomies – Designed to support the transition to a net-zero economy?, Marchewitz et al., Climate Policy Open Access pdf 10.1080/14693062.2026.2703374

The clean energy trade war: assessing the climate costs of U.S. solar tariffs on China’s PV sector, Yuan & Zheng, Frontiers in Environmental Science Open Access pdf 10.3389/fenvs.2026.1835650

Undermining climate action? Challenges of public-private co-financing of carbon removal in the Global North, Christiansen et al., Environmental Science & Policy Open Access pdf 10.1016/j.envsci.2026.104447

Unmasking the dark side: how does fossil fuel financing hurt the carbon neutrality targets?, Anwar et al., Environmental Sciences Europe Open Access 10.1186/s12302-026-01509-2

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago: Analysis of decoupling between CO2 emissions and economic growth in China's provincial capital cities: A Tapio model approach, Urban Climate, 10.1016/j.uclim.2024.101885 55 cites.

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Climate change mitigation public policy research

A stochastic policy assessment of Spain’s 81% renewable electricity target for 2030, Orive & Blanco, Energy Sustainable Development/Energy for sustainable development Open Access 10.1016/j.esd.2026.102068

China’s petrochemical plants’ CO2 emissions and high-impact contributors for carbon-neutrality production, chen et al., Science Advances Open Access pdf 10.1126/sciadv.adx7784

Coordinated development of the “water-energy-land-carbon” system in nine provinces and regions of the Yellow River Basin and analysis of obstacle factors, Wang et al., Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution Open Access pdf 10.3389/fevo.2026.1932520

Do credible climate transition plans matter for carbon performance? Evidence from Fortune Global 500 firms, Silvia et al., Frontiers in Environmental Science Open Access pdf 10.3389/fenvs.2026.1907357

How can energy policy support a just transition for countries in the global South? Insights from South Africa's renewables procurement, Taylor et al., Energy Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.enpol.2026.115443

How could the government support the spread of alternative energy projects?, Czipf, Energy Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.enpol.2026.115513

How does knowledge utilization influence climate policy innovation? Energy modelling and the legitimization of the 55% target in the European Union, Huber et al., Energy Research & Social Science Open Access pdf 10.1016/j.erss.2026.104947

Spatial governance of China’s data-center expansion as a climate-action lever under resource and digital lock-in, Chen et al., Frontiers in Environmental Science Open Access pdf 10.3389/fenvs.2026.1990264

Strategic discharge or full reuse? Circular water economy assessment under WEFE-Climate Change Nexus, Yapan et al., Environmental Science & Policy 10.1016/j.envsci.2026.104442

The double materiality of Norway's Sovereign Wealth Fund: An irreconcilable case of aligning the ‘oil fund’ with Net Zero?, Jackson, Energy Research & Social Science Open Access pdf 10.1016/j.erss.2026.104730

The double-edged sword of carbon offsets: Can it cut in favor of health and energy equity?, Tzankova et al., Energy Research & Social Science Open Access 10.1016/j.erss.2026.104798

What money can’t buy: Company experience and community resistance to renewable energy infrastructure, Ratan & Vega-Araújo, Energy Policy Open Access pdf 10.1016/j.enpol.2026.115473

Who is who? Competing coalitions in climate-AFOLU politics in Argentina, Ryan & Laguna, Climate Policy 10.1080/14693062.2026.2636026

“Inward efficiency gains” or “carbon leakage”? regional carbon emission efficiency effects and spatial spillovers of China’s emissions trading system, Kong et al., Frontiers in Environmental Science Open Access pdf 10.3389/fenvs.2026.1932454

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago: Study on the synergistic effect of air pollution prevention and carbon emission reduction in the context of "dual carbon": Evidence from China's transport sector, Energy Policy, 10.1016/j.enpol.2022.113370 194 cites.

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Climate change adaptation & adaptation public policy research

A Proof of Concept for Rapid Evaluation of Urban Climate Adaptations Using Simplified Simulations over an Indian City, Brousse et al., Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society Open Access 10.1175/bams-d-25-0197.1

Adapting to the risk of Atlantic circulation change, Jongman & Hall, Nature Sustainability 10.1038/s41893-026-01961-1

Are communities in a cyclone-prone area more vulnerable than those in a flood-prone area? towards a climate vulnerability index for rural households in Bangladesh, Ahmed et al., Figshare Open Access 10.6084/m9.figshare.33282103

Beyond climate migration: the right to remain and the right to development as complementary frameworks for climate mobility governance in Africa, Addaney, Frontiers in Climate Open Access pdf 10.3389/fclim.2026.1928809

Distributive effects of climate change: How does rising temperatures affect energy allocation between cities?, Dong et al., Urban Climate 10.1016/j.uclim.2026.103183

Do climate-Adaptive City pilot policy effectively mitigate climate risks? — a quasi-natural experiment from Chinese prefecture-level cities, Cheng & fang, Climate Risk Management Open Access 10.1016/j.crm.2026.100867

Engaged research and its implications for transformation in climate adaptation sciences, Cann, PLOS Climate Open Access 10.1371/journal.pclm.0001093

FEMA phase-out? Catastrophic extremes challenge decentralization of US flood insurance, Nayak et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Open Access 10.1073/pnas.2537388123

Heatwave-induced capacity bottlenecks in European electricity grids, Liang et al., Nature Energy Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41560-026-02151-1

How Do Adaptation Practices Become Climate Maladaptive? A Scoping Review of Empirical Scholarship, Shah et al., Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews Climate Change Open Access 10.1002/wcc.70074

Managing climate risks through adaptation policy: Evidence from China’s climate-adaptive city pilots, Gao et al., Climate Risk Management Open Access 10.1016/j.crm.2026.100823

Reviving connections: Dene wellbeing and climate adaptation in Tthets'éhk'edél??, Ireland et al., Frontiers in Climate Open Access pdf 10.3389/fclim.2025.1694811

Systemic collapse emergence from climate-induced perturbations in transportation networks, Faccin et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Open Access 10.1073/pnas.2532180123

The production of adaptation results: how does the Green Climate Fund turn adaptation projects into impact?, Barnes & Fisher, Figshare Open Access 10.6084/m9.figshare.33269217

Translating national climate policies to resilience actions at the subnational level in low resource settings: Lessons from Ghana’s health systems, Abugnaba-Abanga et al., PLOS Climate Open Access pdf 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000779

What leads to equitable adaptation intentions in city practitioners?, Goto et al., Climate Risk Management Open Access 10.1016/j.crm.2026.100819

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago: Effects of ocean acidification and polystyrene microplastics on the oysters Crassostrea gigas: An integrated biomarker and metabolomic approach, Marine Environmental Research, 10.1016/j.marenvres.2024.106434 26 cites.

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Climate change impacts on human health

Climate change and malaria in west Africa: a review of strategies to handle one of the world’s most prominent anthroponoses, Filho et al., The Lancet Planetary Health Open Access 10.1016/j.lanplh.2026.101484

Heatwave-attributable Parkinson’s mortality is projected to increase by the 2080s in China under a high-emissions scenario, (13940) et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-026-03589-7

Heatwaves have killed millions. Here’s how scientists tally lives lost, Glickman, Nature 10.1038/d41586-026-02430-7

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago: A framework for ageing and health vulnerabilities in a changing climate, Nature Climate Change, 10.1038/s41558-024-02156-2 52 cites.

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Climate change & geopolitics

When diversification fails: Geopolitical contagion and hidden vulnerabilities in Europe’s energy transition, Pokou & Kamdem, Energy Policy 10.1016/j.enpol.2026.115520

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago: The politics of countering climate change in Southeast Asia, Frontiers in Environmental Science, 10.3389/fenvs.2024.1486796 9 cites.

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Other

Canadian lakes show contrasting phosphorus trends across climatic regions, Guo et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-026-04113-7

Fires in Europe are breaking records: here’s what the future holds, Schwab, The Journal of Trauma: Injury, Infection, and Critical Care 10.1097/ta.0b013e31802f734a

Is Deep-Sea Mining the New “Green Frontier”? A Corpus-assisted Discourse Analysis of Arguments on the Climate Crisis and Deep-Sea Mining in the Pacific, Skiveren et al., Environmental Communication Open Access pdf 10.1080/17524032.2026.2723746

Navigating while contesting COP28’s paradoxes with international solidarity actions: a youth delegation’s collaborative and feminist auto-ethnography, Robitaille et al., Climate and Development Open Access pdf 10.1080/17565529.2026.2718467

Repurposing Illegal Coca Cultivation in Colombia to Unlock Large Climate Benefits and Support Legal Livelihoods, Rodríguez-Martínez & Cherubini, Earth s Future Open Access pdf 10.1029/2026ef008712

Three Decades of Scientific Debate on the Additionality of Forest Carbon Offsets: Are We Going in Circles?, Christiansen et al., Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews Climate Change Open Access 10.1002/wcc.70085

What comes after social tipping? Perspectives from transitions towards net-zero, Binder et al., PLOS Climate Open Access pdf 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000982

What is energy literacy? From prerequisite for participation to social practice, Kools & Höffken, Energy Research & Social Science Open Access pdf 10.1016/j.erss.2026.105020

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago: Long-term variabilities in thermal structure, CO2 concentration and associated cooling rates in the Earth's middle atmosphere: Observations and model simulations, Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics, 10.1016/j.jastp.2023.106070 7 cites.

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Informed opinion, nudges & major initiatives

Colloquium: Manabe’s legacy of simulating and understanding global warming, Shaw, Reviews of Modern Physics 10.1103/mfpg-3th9

Europe’s record heatwave: does the continent have a new climate?, Chen, Nature 10.1038/d41586-026-02046-x

Future-proofing interpretations of the Paris Agreement’s limit of well below 2 °C, Lamboll & Rogelj, Nature Climate Change Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41558-026-02685-y

Nepal’s disaster is an urgent wake-up call, Huggel et al., Nature 10.1038/d41586-026-03314-6

The fragility of splendid isolation: Imminent global threat for the world’s island life, Lomolino, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Open Access 10.1073/pnas.2623374123

The worst El Niño in recorded history is brewing — here’s how governments must prepare, Hausfather, Nature 10.1038/d41586-026-02939-x

We Are in the Anthropocene—Now What?, Rockström et al., Earth s Future Open Access 10.1029/2025ef007730

[Comment] Different futures ahead: why does 1·5°C matter?, Tong et al., The Lancet Planetary Health Open Access 10.1016/j.lanplh.2025.101388

[Editorial] Climate overshoot, Schleussner et al., Nature Open Access 10.1038/s41586-024-08020-9

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago: Forest definitions require a re-think, Communications Earth & Environment, 10.1038/s43247-024-01779-9 23 cites.

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Book reviews

Sustainability or dystopia? What past patterns tell us about where society is heading, Wynsberghe, AI and Ethics Open Access pdf 10.1007/s43681-021-00043-6

Why climate policy misses the forest for the trees, Fleischman et al., BioScience Open Access pdf 10.1093/biosci/biaa094

Articles/Reports from Agencies and Non-Governmental Organizations Addressing Aspects of Climate Change

Water Year 2026 In Review (Colorado River), Mazurek et al., Colorado Climate Center and the Department of Atmospheric Science, Colorado State University

Water Year 2026 was one for the record books in Colorado. It was the warmest on record by a substantial margin, and it was also one of the driest. Colorado also recorded its lowest snowpack, which strained water resources and contributed to widespread drought. This year’s climatic conditions had substantial effects across numerous sectors: from agriculture and wildlife to human health and recreation. The researchers found that, statewide, temperatures were 4.5 degrees Fahrenheit above the averages seen between 1991-2020. The 2026 average was also more than 2 degrees warmer than the previous record-warm water year of 1934. Overall, Colorado saw its warmest December, February, March and August on record. Those temperatures contributed to the state’s record-low mountain snowpack totals. The 2026 snowpack-peak was just 51% of the average usually seen statewide, and the high point arrived about a month earlier in the cycle than average. The total snowpack also faded away faster because of unprecedented early season melting in the March heat. The authors explain how the low snowpack totals resulted in record-low streamflow for parts of Colorado. The limited supply there ultimately clashed with high demand for water by users and mandatory storage reductions across the state’s reservoirs. The largest, Blue Mesa Reservoir located on the upper reaches of the Gunnison River, reported summertime storage well below the previous record minimum. Meanwhile, Lake Powell and Lake Mead – both crucial reservoirs for storing water from the Colorado River – also reported record-low levels this year.

State of the Park, Adirondack Council

The 45th annual Adirondack Council State of the Park tracks the decisions and actions taken by public officials at every level over the past year — and their potential to help or harm the Adirondack Park. For example, the Governor rolled back provisions of the Climate Leadership and Community Protection Act and the State Environmental Quality Review Act, eroding the state’s national leadership on climate action and environmental oversight. The Governor imposed a one-year moratorium on new state-authorized data centers due to concerns about energy use, water consumption, and impacts on natural resources. The New York State Department of Environmental Conservation created a new roadmap to help lake associations identify, prevent, and address harmful algal blooms, supporting cleaner water throughout the Adirondacks.

Key findings from fall 2026 poll among Black and Latino registered voters in battleground states, HIT Strategies, Climate Equity Action Fund and the League of Conservation Voters

The authors found that overwhelming majorities of Black and Latino voters in seven battleground states want candidates to address climate change, pollution and energy costs, even though those issues are not necessarily what voters name first when deciding who to support. 72% of respondents selected the cost of living as one of their top three voting issues, followed by access to healthcare (42%) and discrimination (30%). The findings show that Black and Latino voters overwhelmingly want candidates to address climate change. With household costs and health taking priority, the poll underscores the importance of talking about climate policy in terms of what matters most to voters, including affordable energy, clean air and safe drinking water.

Rising Incidents, Lax Oversight. Ohio Oil and Gas Incidents, Inspections, and Enforcement, 2015–2025, Gwen Klenke, FracTracker Alliance and the Buckeye Environmental Network

Ohio’s oil and gas incident records document spills, leaks, equipment failures, and other potentially harmful events. These incident reports should help the public understand where these incidents occur, the risks to safety, health, and the environment, and how regulators and operators respond. But the author's analysis of Ohio Department of Natural Resources (ODNR) records from 2015 through 2025 found that, even as ODNR has improved some aspects of its data collection, major gaps remain. Incident classifications are often unclear, key details are buried in narrative descriptions, and records do not consistently show whether an event led to inspection, cleanup, enforcement, or corrective action. These gaps are particularly notable amid growing problems with oil and gas wastewater disposal, including releases and oil and gas wastewater migration associated with injection wells. However, one thing is clear: incidents are increasing in frequency on an annual basis. Without an understanding of the severity and complexity of these increasing oil and gas incidents, the public and policymakers may be lulled into a false sense of complacency and may be less likely to address serious problems until they threaten to become a crisis. 2,529 oil and gas incidents were recorded in Ohio from 2015 through 2025. Incidents are generally increasing, rising from 103 in 2015 to 268 in 2025, despite year-to-year variation.

The Community and Economic Impacts of Data Centers, US. Chamber of Commerce

Data centers are economic engines powering America's future. They are long-term community investments creating permanent jobs and tax revenue that support community schools, roads, and parks without increasing taxes on residents. A single facility delivers thousands of jobs; hundreds of millions in local tax revenue that fund schools, roads, and public safety; and sustained economic growth for decades. Data center growth and community interests are not competing goals. Communities deserve transparency, early engagement, and confidence that developers will pay for the infrastructure needed to support new growth. When that happens, data centers become a powerful source of jobs, investment, and long-term economic opportunities.

Vermont Climate Assessment 2025, Galford et al., Climate Measurements Center of Excellence, Gund Institute for Environment at the University of Vermont

Vermont is experiencing unprecedented weather extremes. Vermont’s climate is becoming warmer, wetter, and more variable. Shifting seasons are transforming how Vermonters live, work, and play/ A hotter Vermont increases risks to people, farms, and infrastructure. Water is a central climate challenge for Vermont, across all seasons and sectors. Climate risks are interconnected and compounding—requiring action now.

The Debt Discount: A study evaluating the financial track record of companies with transition plans, McGlynn et al., International Transition Plan Network and SCS Consulting Network

The International Transition Plan Network (ITPN) was launched at COP29 to support the development of global norms for private sector climate transition plans and drive climate policies that leverage the full potential of these plans. The research presented here is, to the best of the authors knowledge, the most comprehensive analysis undertaken to date of the financial implications of private sector climate transition plans. The authors found that companies that develop and disclose transition plans experience a lower cost of debt, and that investors appear to reward companies that implement their transition plans. They also found that disclosing a transition plan does not negatively effect profits or stock outperformance over the long run, addressing one of the key concerns for companies weighing the decision to publish.

Reducing green gas costs with bioCO2, Cadent Gas Limited

While the biomethane sector currently requires Government subsidy to scale, early evaluations suggest that selling bioCO2 greenhouse has removals (GGRs) to the private sector could reduce the level of Government support for biomethane by up to one-third compared to today. BioCO2 lowers the costs of renewable energy for consumers while encouraging new investment in domestic green gas production. The technology to capture, liquefy, transport and store bioCO? exists, but policy and infrastructure access have not yet been designed around smaller, geographically dispersed biomethane producers which require their CO2 to be transported by road rather than pipe. The Government’s recently launched Non-pipeline transport (NPT) Pathfinder process is an important first step, but there is more work to do to fully evaluate this opportunity and how it links to the current regulatory landscape. The sector and Government can work together to unlock bioCO2 capture and storage at scale.

Enhancing Ocean-Climate Resilience in Asia and the Pacific, Jeon et al., United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific

Strengthen ocean science, data and observing systems by expanding ocean monitoring networks, integrating satellite, on-ground equipment and climate models to promote science based decision-making. Strengthen early warning systems for marine heatwaves, coastal flooding, storm surges, high waves and tsunamis to enhance preparedness, protect marine ecosystems, and reduce economic losses and disaster effects. Improve coastal hazard assessments and zoning by incorporating high-resolution topographic data, locally observed sea levels, sand intrusion and land subsidence to support effective coastal planning and adaptation. Develop risk-informed guidelines and build community resilience by identifying risk hotspots, developing a framework for climate-induced human mobility and relocation, developing evacuation plans and conducting regular emergency drills, improving emergency shelter and services, and improving community-based risk management and public awareness.

Climate stress reshapes youth migration in Ethiopia, Sørensen et al., Danish Institute for International Studies

Ethiopia’s rural economy and livelihoods depend on seasonal rainfall. When rains fail or fall out of season, crops fail, livestock die and household income collapses. For young people watching this unfold, migration may seem the immediate solution. Understanding locally specific climate vulnerabilities and young people’s mobility aspirations is therefore key to developing adequate policy responses.

Offshore Wind: Status and Issues, Comay et al., Congressional Research Service

During the second Trump Administration, federal policies toward U.S. offshore wind have shifted from those in place during the Biden Administration. President Trump halted Outer Continental Shelf (OCS) wind leasing and permitting and has directed other actions to reverse prior federal support for offshore wind. Also, in P.L. 119-21, the FY2025 budget reconciliation law, Congress limited offshore wind tax credits and rescinded unobligated balances for federally funded activities related to interregional and offshore wind electricity transmission. The industry has also faced economic challenges in recent years related to rising costs and supply chain delays, as well as lawsuits from coastal homeowners, the fishing industry, tribes, and those concerned about potential impacts to marine wildlife. Congress continues to consider issues related to offshore wind leasing, permitting, transmission, tax credits, and related matters through oversight and legislation.

Taking the temperature of EU climate policy, Colli et al., Trans European Policy Studies Association

A debate is raging in Europe about the European Green Deal. Launched with broad political support in 2019, it shaped the mandate of the first von der Leyen Commission. Seven years later, that consensus has eroded. Competitiveness, economic security and defense have moved up the political agenda, while increasingly difficult questions are being asked about who should bear the costs of the green transition. This edition of TEPSA Experts’ Debrief wants to take a fresh look at the debate and make sense of what is happening. Ten experts were invited to give their assessment of the European Green Deal and their ideas on the way ahead. None is complacent about the difficulties confronting Europe. But, with one exception, they argue for staying the course and pressing ahead with the Green Deal, while adapting its implementation to the obstacles encountered and to a profoundly changed political and economic environment.

Breaking the Cycle: Making Somaliland’s Rural Water Systems Climate Resilient, Nasir Ali and Kedir Jemal, Toda Peace Institute

The authors examine Somaliland’s water crisis, which reflects a policy gap between the scale of climate and demographic pressures and the capacity of current institutions to plan, finance and maintain rural water services. It will not be solved by emergency water delivery alone. The Government should treat rural water access as a climate adaptation and local governance priority, with groundwater protection, service standards and accountable financing implemented together. The authors present three key messages, and concludes with policy recommendations and implementation priorities.

AI Data Center Siting on Federal Lands. An Energy View, Rueda et al., RAND

The U.S. government, spurred by a 2025 executive order, is moving quickly to open federal land for artificial intelligence (AI) data center development and directing agencies to identify suitable sites. But energy availability—not just available acreage—is a binding constraint that will determine which sites can realistically support large-scale AI infrastructure. The authors evaluated 12 U.S. Department of Defense sites offered for data center leases, compared them with 17 U.S. Department of Energy sites, and developed a cost model to estimate energy infrastructure expenses across 31 candidate locations. A stakeholder workshop stress-tested these findings and informed public-private partnership guidance.

Connecting capital to capability: An energy security investment framework to optimize the NATO 1.5 percent investment commitment, Dockery et al., Atlantic Council

NATO’s 1.5 percent commitment can be the catalyst that connects capital to capability across the alliance. This broad mandate, applying across thirty-two member states with differing political considerations and priorities, requires a capability-based framework grounded largely in lessons from Ukraine’s defense of its energy system but also in other recently exposed vulnerabilities. Meeting this mandate will require building an energy system that can serve civilian and military energy demands and is resilient to physical and digital threats. This undertaking will be a generational challenge requiring long-term investment.

Dry, dark, and empty, Dunn et al., Atlantic Council

Growing threats to US national interests make a comprehensive review of installation infrastructure and power, fuel, and water systems increasingly urgent. This review could identify the tools needed to keep military departments ready for the next conflict and guide strategic investments in force-multiplying capabilities that strengthen mission readiness. Because US forces operate in combined and joint environments with allies, partners, and host nations, this effort should also integrate additional evaluation tools, funding resources, and long-term strategic planning to sustain military capabilities.

From Climate Science to Climate Governance, Joseph Ingram and Augusto Lopez-Claros, Canadian Global Affairs Institute

The authors argue that climate change has evolved from primarily a scientific and technological challenge into one of governance, requiring governments such as Canada’s to mobilize finance, align market incentives and strengthen international institutions capable of accelerating the green transition at the scale and speed required to meet this challenge.

Climate Mobility, Rights and Resilience in Africa, Jegede et al., International Organization for Migration

This special collection brings together policy briefs examining recent developments in climate mobility research and governance across the continent. The collection reflects the diversity and complexity of climate mobility, covering themes including community resilience, mobility dynamics, food security and agroecological transitions, green sovereignty, governance, human rights and climate finance. Together, the briefs highlight the importance of understanding mobility not only as a consequence of environmental change, but also as a potential adaptation and development strategy. They examine persistent challenges, including data gaps, fragmented policy responses, limited implementation capacity and protection gaps, while identifying opportunities to strengthen evidence-based and inclusive approaches.

Distributed Capacity Procurement Framework. Addressing Grid Needs, Affordably and Reliably with Distributed Energy Resources, McDonnell et al., Solar Energy Industries Association

Utility regulators, grid operators, and energy policy leaders around the country broadly agree that distributed energy resources (DERs) like solar and storage are important for developing a reliable and affordable electric grid. The real question is: what’s the best way to procure and deploy DERs to maximize their benefits to utility customers and the grid? The authors provide a practical roadmap for regulators and policy leaders working to build a 21st-century grid that can meet the needs of the 21st-century economy. The authors outline three procurement pathways that can bolster available resources, respond to growing loads, and provide a faster, more cost-effective response to infrastructure needs.

Asleep at the Switch: How the ACC (Arizona Corporation Commission) is Letting Utilities Fleece Ratepayers, Sierra Club

It can be hard to imagine that a five-person commission can dictate the future of Arizona’s energy landscape, but that is exactly the case. The Arizona Corporation Commission (ACC) has the power to regulate public utilities, set rates for service, and ensure reliability. It’s an incredibly important job and one that affects every Arizonan in some way, despite how little its role is recognized. What Arizonans do notice, however, are the rising costs of their utility bills. Behind those increases is the Commission, whose job is to act as a check on monopoly utilities to protect customers. But over the past several years, the ACC has done the opposite, siding with utilities at the expense of ratepayers, and making decisions that result in significant rate increases and threaten our air, our drinking water, and Arizona families’ health. Rather than acting in the best interest of customers, the ACC has fast-tracked utility projects and side-stepped established processes in its effort to prioritize utility profits over people.

Disaster Divide. How climate chaos deepens inequality and enriches the few,, Lawson et al., Oxfam

Billionaires and the super-rich are burning carbon at an extraordinary rate — the richest 0.1%, or 8 million people, have more emissions than the bottom 3.5 billion. The carbon pollution of the richest 1% is directly contributing to increased climate disasters such as floods, fires, droughts and food crises. Their yearly emissions will cause an estimated 1.9 million excess deaths from heat. In turn, these climate disasters are not experienced equally. Climate disasters drive up inequality and are also far more lethal because of it. Deaths from flooding, for example, are seven times higher in more unequal countries. Rich people can insulate themselves, paying more for food or moving to safer places, whereas most people cannot. The super-rich are also actually cashing in on climate pain — making huge profits from sky-high food prices and profiting from disasters. Meanwhile, ordinary people, hit by successive climate shocks, struggle to recover. They are more exposed, more vulnerable, and have less savings to rebuild their lives.

Protecting Health in the Age of Climate Disinformation: Safeguarding information integrity in the context of climate change and health, Schran et al., WHO Civil Society Working Group on Climate and Health

The authors discuss how climate disinformation directly and indirectly harms human health around the world, from undermining emergency warnings and public-health guidance to delaying policies on air pollution, clean energy and fossil fuels. Case studies highlighted in the report show that climate disinformation interacts with existing inequalities and power structures. The case studies include wildfire misinformation in Canada and Maui, backlash against London’s Ultra Low Emission Zone, cascading climate and information risks during floods in South Sudan, fossil fuel greenwashing, development narratives affecting Indigenous Peoples in Indonesia, and attacks on scientists, journalists and environmental defenders. Those trying to provide evidence can also become targets.

Off-Grid Solar Market Trends Report 2026, International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank

Off-grid solar is reaching more people than ever. Off-grid solar is creating jobs and boosting incomes. The industry is consolidating and diversifying, while continuing to prioritize commercial sustainability. Scaling up the productive use of energy (PUE) has become a key priority for governments and development partners seeking to leverage energy access to achieve job creation and economic growth. Ensuring that access is sustained is also an emerging area of focus. Political recognition of off-grid solar continues to grow, and the challenge now is to convert it into stable, enabling policy environments and consistent delivery.

Energy Technology Supply Chains in Southeast Asia, Jaensch et al., International Energy Agency

The authors examine recent trends in clean energy technology manufacturing, trade and investment in Southeast Asia, building on analysis conducted for Energy Technology Perspectives 2026. The analysis draws on the latest information on energy, climate, trade and industrial policies – as well as manufacturing project announcements – to inform projections for clean energy technology manufacturing and trade in the region and put forward key considerations to guide effective industrial strategy design.

Reforming Federal Forest Management to Advance Fire Resilience, Eric Biber and Dave Owen, Social Science Research Network

Wildfire is simultaneously one of the largest air pollution sources in the United States, causes billions of dollars of property damage each year, and can produce significant ecological harm. Wildfire will only worsen because of climate change, the legacy of logging and fire suppression, and increased development in the wildland-urban interface. The authors provide a detailed proposal for addressing land management issues on national forests, a key to addressing the legacy of logging and fire suppression. Their detailed proposal builds on, and is a companion to, another article (Fixing Wildlife Law), in which they explain the policy problems that wildfire presents and provide a conceptual framework for a response that cuts across many legal areas implicated by wildfire, including land-use regulation in the wildland-urban interface, insurance law, air quality law, and forest management. The additional contribution of this paper is specificity; it takes the conceptual proposals from Fixing Wildlife Law and uses them to articulate the details of reforms for management of national forests. They propose the use of outside expert panels to synthesize the relevant science for forest management to reduce fire risk and empowering the Forest Service to rely on those syntheses to develop management strategies to reduce fire risk. Projects consistent with those management strategies would be exempt from most environmental review and consultation requirements.

Climate and Health in Oregon 2025 report, Carpenter et al., Oregon Health Authority

Accelerating climate change is directly affecting the health of people in Oregon, and those effects are not felt equally. Increasing instances of extreme heat, wildfire smoke, and water insecurity worsen public health across the state, while exacerbating existing health inequities. The authors summarize information about climate change hazards in the state in 2025 and recent decades. Moreover, they discuss related effects to people’s health, and actions of the public health system, partner agencies and local communities to protect everyone in the state from these risks no matter where and who they are.

The 2026 report of the Lancet Countdown on health and climate change: a decade of escalating health harms and a decisive moment for all, Romanello et al., Lancet

The authors found that health effects are escalating faster than climate action with experts calling for climate change to be declared a global health emergency. While progress has been made to deliver real health gains through clean energy investment, health system leadership and health-protecting legislation, these positive signs are not enough to offset the harm from the impacts of fossil-fuel driven climate change. The report represents the work of 146 experts from 71 collaborating institutions, monitoring progress across 54 indicators, including four new indicators introduced this year, providing the most comprehensive assessment yet of the links between climate change and health.

State of the UK Weather and Climate Sector 2026, Derek Swannick, Royal Meteorological Society

The meteorology sector remains strategically important to public safety, national resilience, economic productivity, environmental stewardship, defense, transport, energy, agriculture, and climate adaptation. As climate risk increases and societal dependence on weather and climate intelligence grows, meteorological expertise is becoming more important. The findings demonstrate a sector characterized by exceptionally high levels of professional commitment, strong scientific capability and deep public service motivation. This is reinforced by the survey data, with 93.3% of respondents rating their passion for the sector highly, and by qualitative responses describing meteorology as a vocation rather than simply employment. Respondents expressed strong pride in the sector’s societal importance, scientific standards, and its contribution to safety, resilience, climate adaptation and public wellbeing. However, this commitment sits alongside a significant strategic tension: nearly four in ten respondents had considered leaving the sector, and more than two in ten anticipate leaving the sector within 5 years, not primarily because of a lack of interest in the work, but because of the conditions surrounding it. Open-text responses linked this risk to a combination of workload, pay, progression, job security, shift-working pressures, recognition, management quality and workplace culture. Taken together, these findings point to a clear commitment–conditions gap, in which the sector’s greatest strength may also be masking longer-term risks to workforce sustainability and readiness for change. Technological transformation emerged as one of the defining themes of the research. Respondents were broadly optimistic about advances in data science, Artificial Intelligence (AI)-supported forecasting, Earth observation, automation and interdisciplinary collaboration, seeing significant opportunities to strengthen forecasting, analysis and decision support. At the same time, AI was identified as both one of the sector’s greatest future opportunities and one of its greatest uncertainties. About New Research

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Categories: I. Climate Science

Climate change plus a super El Niño could add up to a record-wet winter for California

Wed, 10/28/2026 - 12:45

After the state endured its hottest year-to-date period on record and a multi-million-dollar battering by Hurricane Marie in September and Hurricane Rachel in October, much greater destruction could be on the way this winter. El Niño is continuing to warm coastal waters, and because water expands as it heats, sea levels could rise to unprecedented heights during the coming king tides at Thanksgiving, Christmas, and late January. In concert with the rising seas will likely come a battering by record-wet atmospheric rivers when the jet stream assumes its usual California-centered configuration during the coming very strong ("super") El Niño winter. Atmospheric rivers, like rivers in the sky, carry moisture out of the tropics.

If it comes to pass, a disaster this winter in California would strain FEMA, which has been decimated under the Trump administration. Since 2025, “the agency has so far lost 17 percent of its staff, including one-third of full-time employees responsible for the agency’s day-to-day operations," according to the Brennan Center. And it's an open question how much the federal government would help: According to a March analysis by politico.com, President Donald Trump has approved just 23% of blue state requests for disaster aid, compared to 89% for red states.

Figure 1. Predicted precipitation from the October 1 run of the European seasonal model. A very wet winter is predicted for California. (Image credit: Daniel Swain)

An unusually high risk of a record-wet winter for California

In an October 12 post at weatherwest.com, climate scientist Daniel Swain shared alarming odds of a record-wet winter for California. He analyzed the winter forecasts from 10 different seasonal forecast models; eight of them gave at least 10% odds that one or more months from January through March 2027 would be the wettest on record in Southern California, Central California, or both.

"In a few locations along the Central Coast, the odds are depicted as being as high as 40-50%," Swain wrote. "Technically, a dry winter is still possible, though it is very unlikely (in my estimate, 5-10% or less)."

The latest run of the European Copernicus climate service (C3S) October 14 outlook, which combines 10 seasonal forecast models from nine weather agencies, concurred with Swain's analysis: About 13% of the 454 model ensemble members explicitly predicted California’s wettest winter on record; only 8% showed a drier-than-average December through February period statewide.

The Golden State has a long history of cataclysmic floods, which have occurred about every 200 to 400 years — most recently in the Great Flood of 1861-62, which swamped the 300-mile length of the Central Valley. And climate change has made these extreme floods more likely.

In fact, climate change has already doubled the risk of a megastorm, and more than tripled the risk of a trillion-dollar megaflood of the type that occurred in the 1860s, according to a 2022 study that Swain co-authored. The study authors found that the odds of a lesser megastorm costing tens of billions of dollars — less precipitation than in 1861-62, but more than in California’s recent wettest winters — were about 1% (26% over a 30-year period).

I asked Swain on Bluesky for the odds of such a lesser megastorm this winter. He replied, “It is reasonable to interpret that the risk is at least 10x baseline, and quite possibly higher.” That implies at least a 10% risk this winter of a California flood costing over $10 billion (2023 dollars), which would be the state’s costliest flood on record.

A separate 2022 study estimated that a 1% per year likelihood flood affecting only the Los Angeles area would likely inundate property worth about $56 billion containing a population of about 425,000 to a depth of a foot or more, with the risks disproportionately higher for non-Hispanic Black and other underresourced populations.

Figure 2. The 13 costliest California flood seasons (in 2023 USD), 1949-2025. This includes flooding from all causes. Of the eight seasons that exceeded $1.5 billion in statewide flood damage, only three were El Niño seasons: one very strong (1982) and two moderate (1994-95, 1968-69). (Image credit: Jan Null, ggweather.com)

Timing of the rains will be crucial

Despite their obvious power, strong El Niño events have historically been a mixed bag for severe flood impacts in California. San Francisco-based meteorologist Jan Null wrote by email that a very wet winter won’t necessarily bring destructive flooding if the storms are strung out over the winter.

For example, the strong El Niño winter of 1997-98 had more than double California’s average rainfall — the second-largest amount ever — but ranks only No. 13 for most destructive, because the rain was spread over almost twice the number of rainy days as usual. Conversely, the strong El Niño winter of 1982-83 had less rain but more significant damage (ranking No. 4), as multiple big storms occurred in a short period of time. And in the winter of 2015-16, predicted heavy rains from El Niño never materialized, despite much higher-than-usual odds.

Figure 3. Predicted departure of sea surface temperature from average from the ECMWF ensemble model average for November 2026-January 2027. Highly extreme sea surface temperature anomalies near or exceeding 10°F are predicted along the entire California coast and in the equatorial Pacific. (Image by Daniel Swain using ECMWF SEAS5.1 data)

Record sea surface temperatures will intensify

Sea surface temperatures along the California coast from San Francisco Bay southward are about 2-6 degrees Celsius (3.6-10.8°F) above average and are record-warm for this time of year along the stretch from San Francisco Bay to Los Angeles.

Why? Partially because California has experienced its hottest year-to-date period on record. In addition, an oceanic “Kelvin wave” has transported warm water from the tropics along the coast over the past few months. The Kelvin wave was generated by strong westerly winds from the intensifying super El Niño, which pushed record-warm waters from the western Pacific against the western coasts of North and South America. The Coriolis effect caused by the planet’s rotation then pinned the bulge of warm water against land, forcing it to spread along the Pacific coast. These warm waters will spread farther north and south later this autumn and into the winter.

Swain wrote that water temperatures along much of the California coast could average about 8-10°F above average this winter. "These are, again, pretty astonishing numbers, and would blow records from 1982-83, 1997-98, and 2015-16 right out of the water," he wrote. "In addition to (alas) potentially very serious marine ecosystem impacts, these extremely warm near-shore waters will likely add considerable additional moisture to incoming winter storms."

These warm waters will mean that much of the winter precipitation in the mountains of California will fall as rain, with snow restricted primarily to the highest elevations.

The unusual ocean warmth will also boost atmospheric instability this winter, increasing the risk of coastal thunderstorms, possibly bringing severe thunderstorms with flash flooding, damaging straight-line wind gusts, and a few isolated tornadoes. The unusually active jet stream expected this winter will contribute to this risk.

Record coastal flooding has already occurred and will worsen

Average water levels at Los Angeles were already running one to four inches above expected in the spring of 2026 and rose an additional 9.5 inches between May and September because of the arrival of the Kelvin wave. Water levels have ranged about one to two feet above expected levels so far in October. (An additional sea level rise of six to eight inches since pre-industrial times has already been factored into the “expected” water levels reported by NOAA.)

Figure 4. The top-10 water levels on record for three California cities with long-term periods of record. Data from NOAA Tides and Currents.

These high water levels contributed to millions of dollars of coastal damage as a result of the large swells from Hurricane Marie in September and Hurricane Rachel in October. Nearly the entire Balboa Peninsula near Los Angeles was inundated up to two to three feet by Hurricane Rachel’s waves in October.

Add in king tides

The highest tides of the year — the king tides — occur during the full moon of certain months. The king tides during July — which hit at the same time that a two- to three-foot swell from a Pacific storm arrived at the coast — brought San Diego its highest water levels since its tide gauge was installed in 1906.

More king tides are expected November 24-26, 2026, December 22-25, 2026, and January 20-23, 2027. These king tides are almost certain to cause coastal flooding, even on calm sunny days.

“Even a moderate storm could bring water levels higher still, and a strong storm would likely produce widespread damaging, and probably historic, coastal flooding,” Swain explained.

Figure 5. Forecast from NOAA of the percent probability of at least minor coastal flooding during the coming king tides of November, December, and January in California. The minor flood thresholds (in feet above high tide) are given at left beneath the city's name. (Image credit: Chris Gloninger)

//
Categories: I. Climate Science

Fact brief - Do nearby wind turbines decrease home values by an average of 75%?

Tue, 10/27/2026 - 08:43

Skeptical Science is partnering with Gigafact to produce fact briefs — bite-sized fact checks of trending claims. You can submit claims you think need checking via the tipline.

Do nearby wind turbines decrease home values by an average of 75%?

Research has found much smaller effects on nearby home prices, and those effects fade with time and distance from turbines.

One 2024 study analyzing data from 1997 to 2020 found that visible turbines were associated with an average sale price decrease of about 1.1%, largely affecting urban areas. The effect disappeared within 10 years of installation and was not statistically significant for installations after 2017, indicating that the 1.1% average likely overstates future wind project impacts.

Another 2023 study examining half a million transactions across 34 states found that announcing a project within one mile could initially reduce nearby home values by up to 11% compared with homes 3-5 miles away. However, values recovered to within 2% of pre-announcement levels in 5 years of operation.

These effects have declined in recent years, which researchers suggest may reflect greater familiarity with turbines; responsible siting and community involvement can further reduce impacts.

Go to full rebuttal on Skeptical Science or to the fact brief on Gigafact

This fact brief is responsive to quotes such as this one.

Sources

U.S. Department of Energy Do Wind Turbines Lower Property Values?

PNAS The visual effect of wind turbines on property values is small and diminishing in space and time

Energy Policy Commercial wind turbines and residential home values: New evidence from the universe of land-based wind projects in the United States

American Clean Power Land-based Wind Turbines do not Affect Property Values

Center for Rural Affairs Wind energy and property values

Columbia Law School Sabin Center for Climate Change Law Rebutting 33 False Claims About Solar, Wind, and Electric Vehicles

Please use this form to provide feedback about this fact brief. This will help us to better gauge its impact and usability. Thank you!

About fact briefs published on Gigafact

Fact briefs are short, credibly sourced summaries that offer "yes/no" answers in response to claims found online. They rely on publicly available, often primary source data and documents. Fact briefs are created by contributors to Gigafact — a nonprofit project looking to expand participation in fact-checking and protect the democratic process. See all of our published fact briefs here.

Categories: I. Climate Science

How not to detect warming acceleration

Mon, 10/26/2026 - 12:41

This is a re-post from The Climate Brink

Whether global warming has accelerated (and how much it has accelerated) is one of the livelier debates in climate science at the moment. The physical case for it is fairly strong: cooling aerosol pollution has fallen substantially over the past two decades while greenhouse gas emissions remain near record highs. The observed rate of warming over the past decade is roughly double what it was over the prior four decades. But showing that this speed-up is statistically distinguishable from the normal year-to-year wiggles of the climate has proven surprisingly hard.

A new paper by Jin and Pu in the journal npj Climate and Atmospheric Science argues that the data through 2025 now show a statistically significant doubling of the warming rate. I broadly agree with them that warming has sped up. But the method they use is problematic, and would find a significant acceleration in many simulated worlds where none exists.

To start with, let’s look at the data. The figure below fits a single continuous trend line to annual global temperatures since 1970, allowing the slope to change at whichever year fits the data best (2012, in this case). The rate of warming between 1970 and 2012 was 0.18C per decade (with an uncertainty range of 0.15C to 0.20C), while warming between 2012 and 2025 was 0.35C per decade (0.26C to 0.45C).1

Annual global surface temperatures from 1970 to 2025 relative to 1850–1900 (black dots), with a continuous trend line whose slope changes in 2012, the best-fitting year (blue and orange). Teal dots show the same data with the estimated effects of El Niño, volcanic eruptions and solar variability removed, for reference. Observations are the average of HadCRUT5, GISTEMP, NOAA GlobalTemp, Berkeley Earth, ERA5 and JRA-3Q datasets.

Whether that change is “statistically significant” depends on how you test it. Beaulieu et al. (2024) used a demanding test that allows the change to happen in any year, and found that a surge in warming was “not detectable yet” with data through 2023. Foster and Rahmstorf (2026) applied the same test to data through 2024 and also found no significant acceleration in the raw data, but argued that acceleration was detectable (with 98% confidence) after removing the estimated effects of El Niño, volcanic eruptions and solar variability. Running their test on the raw data through 2025, I get a p-value of 0.06 for the average of six global temperature datasets (just shy of the conventional 0.05 threshold). Across the individual datasets I’ve used in this analysis it ranges from 0.02 (NOAA) to 0.13 (JRA-3Q), with only NOAA and NASA’s GISTEMP below 0.05. If El Niño, volcanoes and solar are included in the same statistical model, it drops below 0.001.

What Jin and Pu did

Jin and Pu report warming of 0.40C per decade over 2011-2025 compared to 0.20C per decade over 1971-2025, and find the difference statistically significant in all five datasets they examine.2 If you fit a separate trend line to 2011-2025 you do get a number close to theirs (0.41C per decade on the six-dataset average I use here).

The problem lies in how the comparison is constructed. Back in 2017, Rahmstorf, Foster and Cahill described “two important but underappreciated pitfalls waiting to trap those testing for a change in the trend of global temperature time series.” These are “the multiple testing problem, and failure to account for the additional degree of freedom when one uses a model with a jump discontinuity (a broken trend).” At the time that paper was published, these pitfalls were producing claims of a significant slowdown in warming (during the so-called “hiatus” period from 1998-2012). A decade later Jin and Pu’s approach runs into both of these problems, albeit in search of an acceleration rather than a slowdown.

The first is the broken trend. Jin and Pu fit two independent lines, one to 1971-2010 and another to 2011-2025, with nothing forcing the second line to start where the first left off. In the figure below the recent line starts 0.11C below where the earlier trend ended, which steepens it. A single continuous line with a change in slope at 2010 gives 0.32C per decade since then, still well above the 0.18C per decade of earlier decades but not as high as their approach would imply.

Annual global surface temperatures from 1971 to 2025 with separate Theil–Sen trend lines for 1971–2010 (blue) and 2011–2025 (orange), as in Jin and Pu (2026), compared to a single continuous trend line with a change in slope at 2010 (dashed). Same six-dataset average as Figure 1.

The second is how the split year was chosen. Jin and Pu tried every dividing year from 1980 to 2015 and found that “the largest and most statistically significant contrast in warming rates occurs when the dividing year is near 2010–2011. Accordingly, 2011 is adopted as the start of the recent warming period.” As far as the paper describes, the significance test at 2011 makes no adjustment for having searched across all those split years. Beaulieu and colleagues warned about exactly this: if the year of the change is “selected visually among the many possibilities where it can occur without accounting for this, statistical mistakes can ensue.”

Testing the approach on synthetic data

One way to see how much this matters is to apply the same procedure to simulated temperature records where we know there is no acceleration. To do this, I generated 5,000 synthetic records that each warm at a steady 0.20C per decade from 1971 to 2025. Each has year-to-year noise with the same size and persistence as the real temperature record. For each one I tried every split year from 1980 to 2015, kept the one with the biggest contrast between the before and after trends, and tested whether the recent trend was significantly faster using the standard 95% threshold.3

The figure below walks through the process. The first three panels show one of these synthetic worlds that the procedure flagged. Its true trend is a constant 0.20C per decade, but splitting at 2012 gives 0.19C per decade before and 0.36C after, a “doubling” that looks almost exactly like the real record. Across all 5,000 worlds, 22% to 34% are flagged as having a significant acceleration, depending on exactly how the two trends are compared. A test for significance at the 95% level should do this at most 5% of the time.

The separate-trend approach applied to 5,000 simulated temperature records that warm at a steady 0.20°C per decade with year-to-year noise like the real record. Panels 1–3 follow one simulated record that the procedure flags; panel 4 shows the biggest contrast found in each record, with those counted as significant in orange.

By contrast, the changepoint test used by Beaulieu et al. and by Foster and Rahmstorf, which builds the search over break years into its significance threshold, only shows a false positive rate of 5%. That extra rigor is why it is so much harder for that test to reach significance, and why its result through 2025 is just shy of the threshold despite a near doubling of the warming rate.

So what are the takeaways here?

A decade ago the same two shortcuts (broken trend lines and a split year chosen after looking at the data) made a temporary slowdown in warming look like a significant “pause.” The statistical tools developed in response to that debate (many of them by the same researchers now finding acceleration) are a big part of why a later review of the pause literature found “little or no statistical evidence” for a slowdown, while describing broken trends as a “common (but questionable) practice.” Applying them consistently means accepting that they will be slow to confirm an acceleration too.

But as I’ve noted, there is a consilience of evidence that leads us to conclude that this time acceleration is likely real, even if it remains just short of statistically significant in surface temperature records. Today the physics and the data point in the same direction, and the raw record is now sitting right at the edge of formal detection with the strictest available test.4 With 2026 on track to be among the warmest years on record, that may not remain the case for long. I’ll return to this question early next year once the full 2026 data are in.

1 These rates are for a continuous trend line fitted with an allowance for year-to-year persistence in the noise. Allowing for uncertainty in which year the change occurred widens the post-2012 range to 0.22C to 0.65C per decade. For comparison, our recent Indicators of Global Climate Change 2025 report puts the rate of human-induced warming at 0.27C per decade (0.2C to 0.4C) over 2016-2025.

2 The datasets they examine differ from ours in that they exclude reanalysis (JRA-3Q and ERA5) and include the Chinese CMST3 dataset. Running the Beaulieu et al. / Foster and Rahmstorf continuous trend approach on the average of the five datasets does barely find significant acceleration (p= 0.047), as the reanalysis datasets tend to have a bit more year-to-year variability and thus a higher threshold for detecting acceleration.

3 Jin and Pu used Theil-Sen trends with a rank-based correction for autocorrelation and describe the two trends as “statistically distinguishable at the 95% confidence level.” My version uses ordinary least squares trends with a similar correction. Requiring the 95% ranges of the two trends not to overlap leads to a false positive rate of 22%. Testing the difference between the trends against 1.96 standard errors results in a rate of 34%. Both count only falsely-detected acceleration, so counting slowdowns as well would raise both numbers.

4 It's worth remembering that there is nothing particularly significant about significance levels. A false-positive rate of <5% (1-in-20) is a useful test to avoid being mislead, but we should also not dismiss out of hand results that fall close to that level. The ~94% chance of acceleration that we see in surface records today remains a strong signal, and another year of data should make it even stronger.

Categories: I. Climate Science

2026 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #43

Sun, 10/25/2026 - 08:50
A listing of 28 news and opinion articles we found interesting and shared on social media during the past week: Sun, October 18, 2026 thru Sat, October 24, 2026. Stories we promoted this week, by category:

Climate Change Impacts (6 items)

Climate Education and Communication (5 items)

Climate Science and Research (5 items)

  • The Ambiguous Costs of Climate Change To put a price tag on climate change, some approaches focus on whether it made an event more likely, whereas others focus on whether it made an event more severe and damaging. A new study examines the validity of both approaches. Eos, Rebecca Owen, Oct 16, 2026.
  • A 24-year study uncovers a surprising climate benefit beneath forests In a surprising twist, warming temperatures and drier conditions are helping some forests absorb more methane, challenging scientists' expectations about climate change. ScienceDaily, University of Göttingen PR, Oct 17, 2026.
  • Nepal’s disaster is an urgent wake-up call Record-breaking avalanches and floods are signs of things to come. Scientists must evaluate and respond to growing risks in mountain regions. Nature, Christian Huggel, Simon K. Allen, Emily Mark, Dan H. Shugar, Jakob Steiner & Kavita Upadhyay, Oct 20, 2026.
  • How to study a swiftly melting climate disaster Scientists strive to assess the future of Arctic permafrost and how Arctic greening will balance against massive releases of carbon as permafrost warms and melts. MIT Technology Review, James Temple, Oct 20, 2026.
  • Skeptical Science New Research for Week #43 2026 New information on the ''carbon bomb'' lurking within Artic permafrost features heavily in this week's collection, which includes 161 newly published academic papers and government/NGO reports. Skeptical Science, Doug Bostrom & Marc Kodack, Oct 22, 2026.

Climate Law and Justice (3 items)

Climate Policy and Politics (3 items)

Miscellaneous (2 items)

Public Misunderstandings about Climate Science (2 items)

Geoengineering (1 item)

Public Misunderstandings about Climate Solutions (1 item)

If you happen upon high quality climate-science and/or climate-myth busting articles from reliable sources while surfing the web, please feel free to submit them via this Google form so that we may share them widely. Thanks!
Categories: I. Climate Science

Skeptical Science New Research for Week #43 2026

Thu, 10/22/2026 - 11:06
Open access notables

Rapid Increase in Geogenic CO2 Emissions from Antarctic Permafrost, Ruggiero et al., Global Biogeochemical Cycles

Antarctic permafrost and ice-free soils are generally assumed to make only a minor contribution to the global carbon cycle. This study shows that this assumption is incomplete. Using repeated field measurements and carbon isotope analyses, we document a marked multi-year increase in carbon dioxide emissions from Antarctic permafrost terrain and identify a substantial contribution from deep geologic carbon rather than modern microbial activity alone. Our results show that Antarctic permafrost can act as a pathway for the release of ancient carbon. This previously unrecognized process has implications for high-latitude carbon budgets and highlights the need to evaluate Antarctica in Earth system and climate assessments.

Experimental evidence of threshold-driven gas breakthrough in thawing permafrost, Shang et al., Frontiers in Environmental Science

Gas breakthrough is an important but poorly constrained mechanism for abrupt methane release during permafrost warming. This study presents an experimental investigation of gas breakthrough in saturated permafrost analogue soils subjected to controlled freezing and progressive thawing. A silty sand collected from Alaska’s North Slope was tested using an integrated program comprising unfrozen water content measurements, direct tensile tests, constant-volume gas breakthrough experiments, and stress-controlled breakthrough tests under confining pressures representative of shallow to deep permafrost. Unfrozen Water Content (UWC) measurements revealed a sharp, nonlinear reduction below 0 °C, with residual unfrozen water persisting at low temperatures and minor thermal hysteresis between freezing and thawing paths. Tensile strength increased nonlinearly with decreasing temperature, transitioning from ductile behavior near −2 °C to brittle failure at lower temperatures, while tensile resistance near −1 °C was negligible. Gas breakthrough occurred only when gas pressure exceeded thresholds governed by temperature-dependent unfrozen water content, tensile resistance, and confinement. Under high confinement, breakthrough pressures substantially exceeded unconfined tensile strength and occurred primarily during thawing near −1 °C. These results demonstrate that permafrost thawing significantly increases susceptibility to gas breakthrough and provide experimental constraints for assessing methane release from degrading permafrost.

Palaeoclimate constraints narrow uncertainty in future Arctic winter sea ice projections, Fu et al., Nature Geoscience

Arctic sea ice decline has been observed across all seasons and is projected to continue in the future. Relative to historical observations, climate models show their largest biases and uncertainties during winter, when ice cover strongly regulates air–sea heat exchange, ocean mixing and atmospheric circulation. Palaeoclimate records offer opportunities to evaluate model performance beyond the historical period, but applications have remained largely qualitative. Here we compile an Arctic-wide database of mid-Holocene (5–7 thousand years ago) biomarkers to assess sea ice simulations of this past warm period. Using a recently developed proxy system model, we present a Bayesian palaeoclimate model weighting scheme that refines the multi-model mean winter sea ice extent through fully quantitative proxy-model comparisons, accounting for model interdependence and non-stationary proxy seasonality. We demonstrate that, by adjusting the contribution of each model to the ensemble mean based on proxy evidence, model weights can eliminate biases and reduce uncertainties by 85%, to the level of interannual variability. Weighted projections using the same climate models indicate that future winter sea ice extent may be nearly 1 million km2 lower than prior estimates across forthcoming decades and possible emissions scenarios, with broad implications for Arctic ecosystems, mid-latitude weather, and cryosphere stability.

Resolving short-term meteorological variability amplifies projected glacier loss and sea-level rise, Tricht et al., Nature Communications

Global glacier models typically rely on temperature-index mass balance calculations forced with aggregated meteorological data, limiting their ability to resolve short-term variability. Here, we develop a daily-resolution version of the Global Glacier Evolution Model (GloGEM), which we apply globally and compare against the monthly configuration. Our results show that the daily model more closely reproduces mass balance observations and provides a more detailed representation of glacier runoff. Accounting for short-term meteorological variability leads to systematically greater projected mass loss, with up to 25% greater loss in Svalbard. These differences arise from extreme melt days, precipitation-phase transitions, and surface-type feedbacks not fully represented at monthly resolution. Globally, the daily model yields ice volume losses of 26 ± 10% under low-emission and 47 ± 17% under high-emission scenarios over 2025-2100 (ensemble mean ± 1 StD), resulting in an additional 5-10% mass loss (20-33 mm of global mean sea-level rise) relative to the monthly implementation. Resolving high-frequency forcing, or accounting for its effects through parameterisations, is therefore essential for robust glacier projections, while its omission may systematically underestimate future glacier loss.

From this week's government/NGO section:

The Myth of “Baseload” Power in Modern Power Grids, Jennifer Danis and Christoph Graf, Institute for Policy Integrity

the authors the term “baseload” power, together with other reliability-related energy concepts that are often used interchangeably, or in various combinations, to describe the resources’ role in electricity markets and regarding grid reliability. They also discuss why, despite the rhetoric indicating that electric grid reliability is at risk because of retiring “baseload,” “dispatchable,” or “firm” resources, these terms have distinct meanings for reliability in a diversely resourced grid.

Sounding the Alarm, Inside Track

The authors are deeply concerned that the level of physical climate and environmental risk they are seeing is increasing at a dangerous rate. The frequency, severity, and unpredictability of hazards are broadly increasing, as are the exposure and vulnerability of many parts of society to these hazards. They are worried that the risk levels we are seeing either are not being communicated to or are not being properly internalized by government. Without intervention these physical risks will translate into major economic risk. The undermining of the mortgage market drove the Global Financial Crisis – they are worried a major increase in uninsured, high-risk properties could manifest in a similar way as climate effects intensify.

Emissions Gap Report 2026: The point of return – Urgent emissions cuts needed to come back from overshoot of 1.5°C, Olhoff et al., United Nations Environment Programme

The authors detail the cuts to emissions needed by 2030, 2035 and 2040 to get on a return pathway — finding that the cuts needed are far above what current Nationally Determined Contributions deliver. However, the authors find that it is possible to close this emissions gap — pointing to many successful climate policies that have already delivered real-world emissions cuts and could be scaled up globally to accelerate action. 138 articles in 57 journals by 932 contributing authors

Physical science of climate change, effects

Enhanced Efficacy Contributes to Tropical Cyclone Intensification in Warmer Climates via Stronger Storm-Scale Radiative Feedbacks, Zhang et al., Journal of Climate 10.1175/jcli-d-25-0570.1

Estimating the Maximum Mean Precipitation in Hothouse Climates, Bonan & Schneider, Journal of Climate pdf 10.1175/jcli-d-25-0593.1

Heatwave intensification and associated driving mechanisms across High Mountain Asia, Zhao et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2026.10.004

Improved Estimates of Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity From Non-Equilibrated Climate Simulations, He et al., Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres Open Access 10.1029/2026jd046855

Increased southward swings of the South Indian convergence zone under greenhouse warming, Wang et al., Nature Climate Change 10.1038/s41558-026-02767-x

Interdecadal Changes in the ENSO-Induced Summertime Anomalous Western North Pacific Anticyclone, Wu et al., Journal of Climate 10.1175/jcli-d-26-0211.1

Local and Cross-Basin Driving Mechanisms for Marine Heatwaves in the Kuroshio Extension Region, Cao et al., Journal of Geophysical Research Oceans Open Access pdf 10.1029/2026jc024634

Modulation of Global-Scale Warming of the Atmosphere and Subsurface Ocean by Diathermal Heat Transport in the Equatorial Pacific Cold Tongue, Iyer & Moum, Journal of Physical Oceanography 10.1175/jpo-d-26-0100.1

Why the midlatitude ocean is warming faster in summer than in winter, Vimont et al., npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Open Access 10.1038/s41612-026-01567-6

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago: Adjustments to Climate Perturbations—Mechanisms, Implications, Observational Constraints, AGU Advances, 10.1029/2023av001144 16 cites.

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Observations of climate change, effects

Changes in precipitation seasonality over the Indochina Peninsula during 1981–2020: observational evidence and attribution of anthropogenic forcing, Zhang et al., Frontiers in Earth Science Open Access pdf 10.3389/feart.2026.1937024

Heatwave intensification and associated driving mechanisms across High Mountain Asia, Zhao et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2026.10.004

Multidecadal Changes in Atmospheric Dryness Over East Asia Dominated by Internal Climate Variability, Wang et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2026gl125508

Rapid Increase in Geogenic CO2 Emissions from Antarctic Permafrost, Ruggiero et al., Global Biogeochemical Cycles Open Access pdf 10.1029/2026gb009134

Significant Acceleration of Wintertime Current in South China Sea Western Boundary Region During Satellite-Observed Time, Wang & Lan, Journal of Geophysical Research Oceans 10.1029/2026jc024895

Threefold Land-Use Forcing Intensifies Twofold Warming of Urban Europe, Swain et al., Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres Open Access 10.1029/2026jd046541

Warming-driven lower-tropospheric stratification intensifies ducting over global oceans, Zhao et al., Nature Climate Change Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41558-026-02774-y

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago: Global rise in forest fire emissions linked to climate change in the extratropics, Science, 10.1126/science.adl5889 199 cites.

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Instrumentation & observational methods of climate change, effects

Evaluating space-based methane detection through a one-year blind test, Reuland et al., Nature 10.1038/s41586-026-11115-0

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago: Dheed: an ERA5 based global database of compound dry and hot extreme events from 1950 to 2023, Earth system science data, 10.5194/essd-17-6621-2025 9 cites.

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Modeling, simulation & projection of climate change, effects

An ensemble of regional CMIP3/CMIP5 wind wave scenarios for the North Sea and the Baltic Sea: a revisit, Groll & Grabemann, Ocean science Open Access pdf 10.5194/os-22-3185-2026

Anthropogenic attribution and constrained projections of summer wet-bulb globe temperature over global land areas, Li et al., Global and Planetary Change 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2026.105737

Changing patterns of compound coastal flooding along the Pacific coast of North America: precipitation-surge interactions under climate change, Fereshtehpour et al., Weather and Climate Extremes Open Access 10.1016/j.wace.2026.100963

Declining Surface Solar Radiation Resources in Polar Regions Under Global Warming, Huang et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1029/2026gl125763

Evaluating the Coupled GEOS-AOGCM for Climate Research: Response to an Abrupt Quadrupling of CO2 Forcing, Li et al., Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres 10.1029/2025jd044986

Intensification of East Asian summer extreme precipitation under a net-zero anthropogenic CO2 emission scenario, Paik et al., Science Advances Open Access 10.1126/sciadv.aec9366

Millennial-Scale Climate States Alter Atlantic Multidecadal Variability Mechanisms in a Climate Model, Kjellsson & Park, Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2026gl123473

NUKLEUS—A First Convection-Permitting Multimodel Ensemble for Germany: Assessment of Future Changes in Temperature and Precipitation Extremes, Beier et al., Journal of Climate 10.1175/jcli-d-25-0613.1

Probabilistic constraints on the zero emissions commitment, Hohn et al., Frontiers in Climate Open Access 10.3389/fclim.2026.1877157

Reversible Atlantic overturning despite continued Greenland ice sheet melt, Guo et al., Science Advances Open Access 10.1126/sciadv.aee5373

Significant Spatiotemporal Asymmetry in Future Global Rainstorm Flood Risk, Zhao et al., Earth s Future Open Access pdf 10.1029/2025ef007148

The 2023 North Atlantic marine heatwave could have evolved into a far more extreme event, Gregory et al., Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-026-78863-5

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago: Projected changes in mean climate and extremes from downscaled high-resolution CMIP6 simulations in Australia, Weather and Climate Extremes, 10.1016/j.wace.2024.100733 25 cites.

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Advancement of climate & climate effects modeling, simulation & projection

The Sensitivity of a Coupled Climate Model to Numerical Mixing in Its Ocean Component, Megann et al., Journal of Climate Open Access 10.1175/jcli-d-25-0661.1

Tropical Ocean Evaporation-Temperature Sensitivity to Surface Radiative Property Perturbations in Fully Coupled CESM2, Wei et al., Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres Open Access pdf 10.1029/2026jd048440

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago: Implications of a Pervasive Climate Model Bias for Low-Cloud Feedback, Geophysical Research Letters, 10.1029/2024gl110525 30 cites.

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Cryosphere & climate change

Abrupt permafrost thaw overwhelms vegetation-driven erosion reduction in sediment export on the Tibetan Plateau, Ma et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-026-04125-3

Alaskan Glaciers in a Warming Climate, Wells et al., Earth s Future Open Access pdf 10.1029/2026ef009035

Antarctic marine-based ice destabilized when warming outpaces solid-Earth feedbacks, Swierczek-Jereczek et al., Nature Geoscience Open Access 10.1038/s41561-026-02117-8

Palaeoclimate constraints narrow uncertainty in future Arctic winter sea ice projections, Fu et al., Nature Geoscience Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41561-026-02123-w

Resolving short-term meteorological variability amplifies projected glacier loss and sea-level rise, Tricht et al., Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-026-78260-y

Seasonal surface melt onset and firn freeze-up across the central Wrangell and St. Elias Mountains, Kindstedt et al., cryosphere Open Access 10.5194/tc-20-5941-2026

Sudden collapse of ice mélange under increasing submarine melt at tidewater glaciers, Summers et al., Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-026-78423-x

Tuvaijuittuq: The Last Refuge of Multiyear Ice (MYI) Is Becoming Increasingly Open, Pu?ko et al., Journal of Geophysical Research Oceans Open Access 10.1029/2025jc023023

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago: Seasonal changes in black carbon footprint on the Antarctic Peninsula due to rising shipborne tourism and forest fires, Science Advances, 10.1126/sciadv.adp1682 7 cites.

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Sea level & climate change

Changing patterns of compound coastal flooding along the Pacific coast of North America: precipitation-surge interactions under climate change, Fereshtehpour et al., Weather and Climate Extremes Open Access 10.1016/j.wace.2026.100963

Global ice loss drives source-independent amplification of sea-level rise at Pacific and Indian Ocean Small Island Developing States, Powell et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-026-04132-4

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago: The rate of global sea level rise doubled during the past three decades, Communications Earth & Environment, 10.1038/s43247-024-01761-5 153 cites.

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Paleoclimate & paleogeochemistry

Constraints on Past CO2 and Climate Sensitivity From Global Temperature and Sea Level Reconstructions Across the Plio-Pleistocene, Köhler & Clark, Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2025gl120608

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago: Expanded subsurface ocean anoxia in the Atlantic during the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum, Nature Communications, 10.1038/s41467-024-53423-x 15 cites.

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Biology & climate change, related geochemistry

Climate Change Experienced by Life on Earth—Drivers and Mechanisms of Future Trends in Microclimates, Wolters et al., BioScience 10.1641/0006-3568(2000)050[1089:eogcoa]2.0.co;2

Coordinated Leaf Trait Acclimation Reduces Simulated Global Photosynthesis Sensitivity to Elevated CO2 in a Land Surface Model, Bian et al., Journal of Geophysical Research Biogeosciences 10.1029/2026jg010127

Detecting long-term canopy change and vegetation shifts in northern peatlands using LAI and climate data, Burdun et al., Biogeosciences Open Access pdf 10.5194/bg-23-7289-2026

Dispersal Limitations Restrict Predicted Climate-Driven Biodiversity Dynamics Across North America, Meng et al., Global Ecology and Biogeography Open Access pdf 10.1111/geb.70321

Drought tolerance and mortality risk of European beech, Walthert et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology Open Access 10.1016/j.agrformet.2026.111541

Effects of climate change on marine biodiversity on the western Atlantic coast, Oliveira et al., Conservation Biology Open Access pdf 10.1111/cobi.70399

Escalating competition in changing seas: baleen whales exploit killer whale prey herding, Jourdain et al., Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B Biological Sciences Open Access pdf 10.1098/rstb.2025.0197

Explainable artificial intelligence reveals spatially divergent effects of global change on mammals, Song et al., Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-026-78677-5

Global grassland productivity and carbon storage benefit from functional diversity under climate change, Wirth et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Open Access pdf 10.1073/pnas.2528067123

Hemispheric asymmetry in predicted range shifts of anti-tropical fish under future climate change, Zhang et al., Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-026-78577-8

No Net Increase in Ecosystem Water Limitation Under Greenhouse Warming, Xu et al., Earth s Future Open Access pdf 10.1029/2026ef008222

Norway spruce shows stronger growth sensitivity and weaker intrinsic water-use efficiency response than Scots pine under increasing water limitation in southern Finland, Szejner et al., Biogeosciences Open Access pdf 10.5194/bg-23-7223-2026

Persistent effects of experimental heatwave duration on population dynamics, Gruntz & Grainger, Biology Letters Open Access 10.1098/rsbl.2026.0444

Regime Shifts During Compound Drought-Heatwave Events Amplify Ecosystem and Heat Stress Risks, Yang & Tang, Geophysical Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1029/2026gl125653

Spatio-temporal dynamics of ringed seal density and habitat use in the Arctic's Last Ice Area, MacLean et al., Ecography Open Access 10.1002/ecog.08562

Thermal Generalism Shapes Tolerance to Extreme Heatwaves in Estuarine Fishes, Mitchell et al., Global Change Biology Open Access pdf 10.1111/gcb.71143

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago: Global exposure risk of frogs to increasing environmental dryness, Nature Climate Change, 10.1038/s41558-024-02167-z 46 cites.

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GHG sources & sinks, flux, related geochemistry

Bedrock erodibility governs transient erosion and CO2 release in alpine landscapes, Marder et al., Science Advances Open Access 10.1126/sciadv.aei9275

Characterizing Point-Source Carbon Emissions by Combining TROPOMI CO and OCO CO2 Data, Leguijt et al., Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres Open Access 10.1029/2025jd044636

Climate Warming Impaired the CO2 Sink Capacity and Efficiency in a Suaeda salsa-Dominated Salt Marsh, Wei et al., Global Change Biology 10.1111/gcb.71151

Cross-Network Synergies Fundamental to Sustained Global Ocean Carbon Observing, Sutton et al., Earth s Future Open Access pdf 10.1029/2026ef008722

Disentangling the drivers of soil CO2 ventilation in a Mediterranean dryland using in situ and remote sensing techniques, Abril-Gago et al., Biogeosciences Open Access pdf 10.5194/bg-23-2569-2026

Divergent Spatial and Temporal Sensitivities of Forest Biomass to Climate Challenge Space-For-Time Assumptions and Models, Yang & Anderegg, Ecology Letters Open Access 10.1111/ele.70466

Drivers and implications of declining fossil fuel CO2 concentrations in Chinese cities revealed by radiocarbon measurements, Li et al., Atmospheric chemistry and physics Open Access 10.5194/acp-26-5085-2026

Drivers of long-term grassland CO2 fluxes: effects of management and meteorological conditions during regrowth periods, Wang et al., Biogeosciences Open Access pdf 10.5194/bg-23-1625-2026

Eastern Arabian Sea Is a Perennial Source of CO2 With High Coastal Fluxes: Quantifying Key Drivers, Sherin & Gupta, Global Biogeochemical Cycles 10.1029/2024gb008368

Effects of disturbance on seasonal CO2 dynamics in two boreal forest sites underlain by permafrost, Vas et al., cryosphere Open Access pdf 10.5194/tc-20-2017-2026

Experimental Determination of the Global Warming Potential of Carbonyl Fluoride (COF2), Kim et al., Atmospheric chemistry and physics Open Access pdf 10.5194/acp-26-2707-2026

Experimental evidence of threshold-driven gas breakthrough in thawing permafrost, Shang et al., Frontiers in Environmental Science Open Access pdf 10.3389/fenvs.2026.1820261

Flash drought promotes decoupling of soil CO2 emissions and CH4 uptake in seasonal subtropical wetlands: A case study in Dongting Lake, Youxin et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 10.1016/j.agrformet.2026.111542

Global Anthropogenic Methane Emissions: Bottom-Up Simulations of Current Trends and Scope for Future Mitigation, Höglund-Isaksson et al., Global Biogeochemical Cycles Open Access 10.1029/2026gb009471

Global mapping of disaggregated international trade-linked transportation CO2 emissions, Luo et al., Science Advances Open Access pdf 10.1126/sciadv.adz1670

Interpretable Machine Learning Reveals Global Nonlinear Responses of Soil Respiration to Climate, Laffitte et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1029/2026gl124051

Linking sea–air and benthic methane fluxes across seasons in a tropical seagrass meadow of Taiwan, Tseng et al., Biogeosciences Open Access pdf 10.5194/bg-23-7309-2026

Methane Uptake by Inland Waters: Fact or Fiction?, Peacock & Webb, Global Biogeochemical Cycles Open Access pdf 10.1029/2026gb009212

Microbially Mediated Soil Carbon Sequestration Under Long-Term Increased Snow Cover: Divergent Mechanisms Between Topsoil and Subsoil in a Temperate Grassland, Ma et al., Earth s Future Open Access pdf 10.1029/2025ef007819

Net CO2 Emissions From Dry Inland Waters Persist in the Presence of Vegetation, Sharma et al., Global Biogeochemical Cycles Open Access 10.1029/2025gb008801

Rapid Increase in Geogenic CO2 Emissions from Antarctic Permafrost, Ruggiero et al., Global Biogeochemical Cycles Open Access pdf 10.1029/2026gb009134

Respiration-Induced Weakening of Land Sink Contributed to the Largest CO2 Increase in 2024, Dang et al., Global Change Biology 10.1111/gcb.70831

Soil Invertebrate Body Size Groups and Effect Magnitude Jointly Influence Global Soil CO2 Emissions, Liu et al., Global Change Biology 10.1111/gcb.70770

Symbiotic nitrogen fixation sustains carbon sinks under warming Tibetan permafrost region, Xu-Ri et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-026-04085-8

UEx-L-Eddies: decadal and global long-lived mesoscale eddy trajectories with coincident air–sea CO2 fluxes and environmental conditions, Ford et al., Earth system science data Open Access pdf 10.5194/essd-18-969-2026

Wetland Expansion Reduces CO2-Equivalent Emissions and Strengthens the Congo Basin's Role as a Net Carbon Sink, Byrne et al., Global Change Biology Open Access pdf 10.1111/gcb.70746

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago: The restoration of karst rocky desertification has enhanced the carbon sequestration capacity of the ecosystem in southern China, Global and Planetary Change, 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2024.104602 70 cites.

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CO2 capture, sequestration science & engineering

A Two-Phase Layered Model for Simulating Leakage Along Faults Considering the Blocking Effect of CO2 Exsolution, Jixing et al., Greenhouse Gases Science and Technology 10.1002/ghg.2384

Development and Application of a Simplified Method for Preliminary Assessment of Enhanced Oil Recovery and CO2 Geological Storage in Petroleum Reservoirs, Oliveira et al., Greenhouse Gases Science and Technology Open Access pdf 10.1002/ghg.70009

Electrified release of pure CO2 from postcapture liquid: A two-stage system lowers the total energy cost, Jung et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Open Access 10.1073/pnas.2528655123

Experimental and Numerical Investigation on Gas–Liquid Two-Phase Breakthrough Behavior of Wellbore Micro-Annuli in CO2 Geological Storage, Zhang et al., Greenhouse Gases Science and Technology 10.1002/ghg.70049

Impact of Wettability on CO2 Mineral Trapping in Carbonate Saline Aquifers: A Reactive Transport Simulation Study, Khoramian et al., Greenhouse Gases Science and Technology 10.1002/ghg.2387

It depends on the question: How survey format shapes the measurement of public attitudes to carbon capture and storage in Norway, Andersen et al., Energy Research & Social Science Open Access 10.1016/j.erss.2026.105032

Optimization of CaO–Ni Blends for Enhanced CO2 Adsorption: Aspen Plus Simulation Study, Sarmad et al., Greenhouse Gases Science and Technology Open Access pdf 10.1002/ghg.2385

Reductions in Climate Zone Changes Under Stratospheric Aerosol Injection Compared to Unabated Warming, Brunelli & Diamond, Earth s Future Open Access pdf 10.1029/2026ef008937

Salt Precipitation-Driven Rock Failure Mode Transition During Geological CO2 Sequestration, An et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1029/2025gl120303

Simulation of CO2 Storage in a Low-Pressure Depleted Gas Reservoir and Economic Assessment of Multiphase CO2 Injection Strategies under Two Business Models of Storage Services, Ilham et al., Greenhouse Gases Science and Technology 10.1002/ghg.70027

Temporary carbon storage can mitigate slow-responding climate changes, Dickau & Matthews, Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-026-78620-8

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago: A global assessment of mangrove soil organic carbon sources and implications for blue carbon credit, Nature Communications, 10.1038/s41467-024-53413-z 101 cites.

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Decarbonization

A multi-model analysis of hydrogen uptake in a climate-neutral Europe, Fattahi et al., Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-026-78681-9

Enviro-Economic Cement Production With Minimal CO2 Emissions: Implications to Net Zero Emissions, Rashid et al., Greenhouse Gases Science and Technology 10.1002/ghg.70013

Impact of proposed wind turbines on seismic monitoring stations at the Xiaolangdi Reservoir, Wei et al., Scientific Reports Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41598-026-75011-3

Market Integration Pathways for Enhanced Geothermal Systems in Europe, Franken et al., Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research) Open Access 10.5281/zenodo.21778393

Revealing the Synergistic Drivers of Air Pollutants and CO2 Emissions Reduction in China's Resource-Based Industries, Sun et al., Greenhouse Gases Science and Technology Open Access pdf 10.1002/ghg.70014

Targeting high-value uses to unlock the mitigation potential of clean hydrogen, [authors did not process], Nature Climate Change 10.1038/s41558-026-02766-y

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago: Impacts of renewable energy resources on the weather vulnerability of power systems, Nature Energy, 10.1038/s41560-024-01652-1 111 cites.

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Geoengineering climate

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago: Early life stages of fish under ocean alkalinity enhancement in coastal plankton communities, Biogeosciences, 10.5194/bg-21-4521-2024 23 cites.

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Aerosols

Forcing closure suggests stronger aerosol forcing and higher climate sensitivity than the consensus, Yuan et al., Science Advances Open Access 10.1126/sciadv.aeh6401

Climate change communications & cognition

Climate change worry and generalized anxiety among high school students in a rural district of Türkiye: a cross-sectional study, Sa?lam, BMC Public Health Open Access 10.1186/s12889-026-29987-2

Local voices for a global cause – youth in climate movements in Poland, Gorczyca et al., Climate and Development 10.1080/17565529.2026.2748877

Political affiliation impacts climate attention and choice beyond extreme weather exposure, Wyss et al., Nature Climate Change Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41558-026-02765-z

Re-examining the prevalence of Self-focused Value Profiles and Their Relation to Climate Change Outcomes: Findings from the European Social Survey, Ward et al., Journal of Environmental Psychology 10.1016/j.jenvp.2026.103245

Reciprocal Associations Between Immigration Attitudes and Climate Change Concern: An 11-Year Longitudinal Study, Zong et al., Journal of Environmental Psychology Open Access 10.1016/j.jenvp.2026.103252

Risk in the eye of the beholder: Climate-risk perception and livelihood heterogeneity among indigenous Maya households, Gonzalez & López-Feldman, Climate Risk Management Open Access 10.1016/j.crm.2026.100899

Risk perception and decision-making during multiple climate hazards, Heimbach et al., Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry Open Access pdf 10.1002/etc.3631

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago: Climate emotions, thoughts, and plans among US adolescents and young adults: a cross-sectional descriptive survey and analysis by political party identification and self-reported exposure to severe weather events, The Lancet Planetary Health, 10.1016/s2542-5196(24)00229-8 85 cites.

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Agronomy, animal husbundry, food production & climate change

Behavioral Readiness for Climate-Smart Agriculture Adoption Among Smallholder Farmers in Southwest Ethiopia, Gafaro et al., Climate Resilience and Sustainability Open Access pdf 10.1002/cli2.70071

Developing a Climate Impact Indicator Framework for the UK Agri-Food Sector: A Literature Review and Stakeholder Co-Production Approach, Mollard et al., Climate Resilience and Sustainability Open Access 10.1002/cli2.70068

Editorial: Impact of climate change on plantation crops, Tsai et al., Tree Physiology Open Access pdf 10.1093/treephys/tpy026

Explaining Climatic Drivers of Yield Anomalies in Global Crop Models Through Metamodel-Based Attribution, Oberleitner et al., Earth s Future Open Access 10.1029/2025ef007457

Multi-scale feedback mechanism and synergistic governance of carbon emissions and fragmentation in cultivated land, Liu et al., Environment Development and Sustainability 10.1007/s10668-026-08233-0

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago: Carbon farming in India: are the existing projects inclusive, additional, and permanent?, Climate Policy, 10.1080/14693062.2024.2416497 23 cites.

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Hydrology, hydrometeorology & climate change

Changes in Flood Frequency and Seasonality Across Midwestern U.S. Watersheds Under a Warming Climate: Insights From Convection-Permitting Climate Simulations and Physics-Based Hydrologic Models, Abbasian et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1029/2026gl124622

Changes in precipitation seasonality over the Indochina Peninsula during 1981–2020: observational evidence and attribution of anthropogenic forcing, Zhang et al., Frontiers in Earth Science Open Access pdf 10.3389/feart.2026.1937024

Extreme discharge asymmetry over the Tibetan Plateau under a changing climate, XIE et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2026.10.001

Flood Responses to Climate Warming on Tribal Lands Using High-Resolution Hydrodynamic Modeling, Pu et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1029/2026gl124766

Intensification of East Asian summer extreme precipitation under a net-zero anthropogenic CO2 emission scenario, Paik et al., Science Advances Open Access 10.1126/sciadv.aec9366

Long-term changes in extreme precipitation and their non-stationary teleconnections with ENSO and PDO over Vietnam (1981–2024), Thien, Frontiers in Climate Open Access pdf 10.3389/fclim.2026.1899944

Projected intensification of soil salinization in global drylands under future aridity increase, Yu et al., Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-026-78622-6

Significant Spatiotemporal Asymmetry in Future Global Rainstorm Flood Risk, Zhao et al., Earth s Future Open Access pdf 10.1029/2025ef007148

Topology-aware and constraint-guided deep reinforcement learning for climate-resilient control of urban stormwater systems, Jing et al., Frontiers in Environmental Science Open Access pdf 10.3389/fenvs.2026.1963502

Variability and Attribution of the Surface Water Budget Under the Background of Warming and Wetting in Northwest China, Yang et al., International Journal of Climatology Open Access pdf 10.1002/joc.70599

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago: Climate change impacts on hydrology and water resources in East Africa considering CMIP3, CMIP5, and CMIP6, Frontiers in Climate, 10.3389/fclim.2024.1453726 18 cites.

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Climate change and the circular economy

Material circularity implications of battery degradation in shared electric mobility, Yang et al., Nature Sustainability 10.1038/s41893-026-01969-7

Climate change mitigation public policy research

Assessment of Brazilian household consumption patterns and their associated CO2 emissions, Santos et al., Climate and Development 10.1080/17565529.2025.2509069

Combining climate policy instruments for a just transition to a climate-neutral economy, [authors did not process], Nature Climate Change 10.1038/s41558-026-02757-z

Translating EU renewable energy community policy under geopolitical constraint: An actor-network analysis of Cyprus, Kalemis et al., Energy Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.enpol.2026.115666

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago: The key role of sufficiency for low demand-based carbon neutrality and energy security across Europe, Nature Communications, 10.1038/s41467-024-53393-0 65 cites.

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Climate change adaptation & adaptation public policy research

Adaptation Potential of Local Water Management Practices to Glacier Loss, Jésus et al., Earth s Future Open Access 10.1029/2026ef008697

Diminishing cooling returns of urban greening amid a warming climate, Leng et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Open Access 10.1073/pnas.2616535123

Intensifying Tropical Cyclones and Expanding Renewable Energy Call for Climate-Resilient Planning in China, Zhang et al., Earth s Future Open Access 10.1029/2026ef009261

Schools in a warming world: how climate change reveals institutional vulnerability, Draelants, Environmental Sociology 10.1080/23251042.2026.2750356

Supporting climate change adaptation worldwide: a web application for exploring uncertain future changes in water resources, Döll et al., Geoscience Communication Open Access pdf 10.5194/gc-9-473-2026

Synthesizing lessons from European adaptation pathways projects for climate resilience, Zorita et al., Environmental Science & Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.envsci.2026.104525

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago: An analytical framework for assessing heat vulnerability in urban thermal environmental planning, Urban Climate, 10.1016/j.uclim.2024.102145 14 cites.

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Climate change impacts on human health

Impact of climate change on malaria incidence in Senegal and Nigeria: a machine learning approach, Diouf et al., Frontiers in Climate Open Access 10.3389/fclim.2026.1877760

Intensifying summer-monsoon human thermal stress across eastern China's major urban agglomerations, Iqbal et al., Urban Climate Open Access 10.1016/j.uclim.2026.103195

Projected climate extremes and health burden in Kenya to 2050: a scenario-based analysis under SSP245 and SSP585 pathways, Muchangi et al., Frontiers in Climate Open Access pdf 10.3389/fclim.2026.1890697

Rare diseases are an overlooked dimension in climate–health adaptation, Sasongko, Nature Climate Change 10.1038/s41558-026-02770-2

When climate risk enters the household: Climate disasters and intimate partner emotional violence, Chang et al., Climate Risk Management Open Access 10.1016/j.crm.2026.100898

[Comment] Early career insights on boundary crossing for planetary health and a just future, Kennedy et al., The Lancet Planetary Health Open Access 10.1016/j.lanplh.2026.101507

Climate change & geopolitics

Quantifying assets for the geopolitics of climate change mitigation, Pan et al., Nature Sustainability Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41893-026-01971-z

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago: Measuring the climate security nexus: The Integrated Climate Security Framework, PLOS Climate, 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000280 13 cites.

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Other

Rebels in a changing climate: insurgent perspectives on disasters and the rise or fall of rebellion, Ide et al., Global Environmental Change Open Access 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2026.103250

The Cold Fresh Pulse in the Northwest Atlantic in 2023/2024, Gawarkiewicz et al., Journal of Geophysical Research Oceans Open Access 10.1029/2026jc024883

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago: On the fidelity of high-resolution numerical weather forecasts of contrail-favorable conditions, Atmospheric Research, 10.1016/j.atmosres.2024.107663 13 cites.

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Informed opinion, nudges & major initiatives

Global emissions slow — but world hurtles towards 2 °C of warming, Dinneen, Nature 10.1038/d41586-026-03355-x

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago: Over-reliance on land for carbon dioxide removal in net-zero climate pledges, Nature Communications, 10.1038/s41467-024-53466-0 51 cites.

Articles/Reports from Agencies and Non-Governmental Organizations Addressing Aspects of Climate Change

World Energy Transition Outlook 2026: 1.5°C Pathway, Collier et al., International Renewable Energy Agency

The global energy transition has entered a decisive new phase. Renewable energy deployment continues to break records, technology costs have fallen significantly and electrification is advancing across transport, buildings and industry. However, the authors found that this progress remains too slow and uneven. The central challenge is increasingly one of accelerating implementation: scaling renewable energy, electrification, energy efficiency, grids, storage and flexibility together, while maintaining energy security, affordability and public acceptance. Under IRENA’s revised 1.5°C Scenario, electricity’s share of global final energy consumption would rise from around 23% today to 35% by 2035 and more than 50% by 2050, supported by around 18.4 terawatts (TW) of renewable power capacity by 2035 and 38.2 TW by 2050. By 2050, electricity would account for around 77% of final energy use in buildings, 47% in transport and 42% in industry, with sustainable bioenergy, renewable hydrogen and other sustainable fuels complementing direct electrification in hard-to-abate contexts. Delivering this transformation would also require a major expansion of grids, storage and flexibility, alongside more than USD 256 trillion in cumulative investment and expenditure between 2026 and 2050 (i.e. around 10.3 trillion/year).

Dominion-NextEra merger plan may slow clean energy transition, Dennis Wamsted, Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis

September’s revised merger agreement between Dominion Energy and NextEra includes clues about future resource decisions in Virginia that should concern state regulators, political leaders, and renewable energy proponents. Despite the success of the utility’s current offshore wind projects and promises of consumer fuel cost savings related to the renewable technology, the merger agreement fails to mention offshore wind at all. Prior to the merger announcement, developing additional offshore wind was clearly a consideration for Dominion, but NextEra largely dismisses offshore wind—meaning the merger could challenge the state’s renewable energy transition. NextEra is looking out for its shareholders first and foremost, and not Virginia ratepayers. Politicians, regulators, and energy advocates in the commonwealth need to keep that point front and center as they consider the massive merger proposal in the months ahead.

Risk Factors and Failure Statistics of Lithium Ion BESS, Srinivasan et al., Electric Power Research Institute

Lithium ion battery energy storage system (BESS) deployment has increased exponentially in the past few years. Failure incidents are rare, but understanding their risks is important to support continued improvements in BESS safety. The authors calculated the likelihood of failures and quantify failure consequences. The risk of BESS failures is compared with risk of failure of other energy infrastructure such as transformers. Several BESS design factors, including site architecture and chemistry, are analyzed to understand the effects to risk.

Sounding the Alarm, Inside Track

The authors are deeply concerned that the level of physical climate and environmental risk they are seeing is increasing at a dangerous rate. The frequency, severity, and unpredictability of hazards are broadly increasing, as are the exposure and vulnerability of many parts of society to these hazards. They are worried that the risk levels we are seeing either are not being communicated to or are not being properly internalized by government. Without intervention these physical risks will translate into major economic risk. The undermining of the mortgage market drove the Global Financial Crisis – they are worried a major increase in uninsured, high-risk properties could manifest in a similar way as climate effects intensify.

Headwaters Counties: A Water Economy (Colorado), Harvey Economics, Northwest Colorado Council of Governments

This study is an update to a 2012 Report that explores the relationship between water and economic activity in a portion of western Colorado where the interaction of precipitation, elevation, and location produces water for the Headwaters Region, much of Colorado, and the western United States. The current study focuses on what has changed in the intervening 15 years for the Headwaters Counties, documenting the relationship between water and the Headwaters Counties’ economies due to new and evolving influences. One of these influences includes increased Understanding of climate change and its' effects on Headwaters Counties’ water users.

30X30 Global Assessment 2026, Campaign for Nature, Campaign for Nature and Together for the Ocean

The authors assess where global progress toward 30x30 stands today, what current trajectories imply for 2030, why implementation is not on track, and which priorities can accelerate delivery. Under the 2022 Kunming Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework (GBF), Parties to the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) adopted Target 3, commonly known as 30x30: the effective protection and conservation of at least 30 percent of land, inland waters, marine and coastal areas by 2030 through protected areas, Other Effective Area-Based Conservation Measures (OECMs), recognizing Indigenous and Traditional Territories where applicable, while respecting the rights of Indigenous Peoples and local communities.

Ocean Protection Gap Report 2026, Chia et al., Together for the Ocean

In 2026, the world passed an important milestone: more than 10% of the ocean is now reported as protected or conserved, up from 8.6% in 2025. However, progress remains far off track from the global target to protect and conserve at least 30% of the ocean by 2030 (30x30). At the recent historical pace, global coverage would reach only around 15% by 2030, halfway to the target. The expansion of marine protected and conserved areas is also not yet matched by the conditions needed to deliver effective implementation. Only 3.5% of the ocean is assessed and deemed to be effectively protected. While protection of key marine habitats is relatively high on paper, only a small share is assessed as being effectively protected: 33% of mangroves are reported as protected, but just 0.3% are fully or highly protected; for seagrass the figures are 34% and 1.1%, respectively; and while 47% of warm-water corals fall within protected areas, less than 10% are fully or highly protected.

The Affordability Advantage: How Virtual Power Plants Can Alleviate Household Electricity Bill Pressure, Volume I: Summary Report, Ryan Hledik and Kailin Graham, Brattle Group

Over the past five years, electricity prices have risen faster than an already elevated rate of inflation, increasing household electricity bills and putting renewed pressure on utilities, regulators, and policymakers to address affordability. The authors evaluate how aggregating flexible household technologies—including smart thermostats, electric vehicles, and behind-the-meter batteries—could reduce system costs and translate those savings into lower electricity bills for customers.

Clean Jobs America Initial Findings: Nearly 37,000 Clean Energy Jobs Lost in 2025, Timberlake et al., E2

The U.S. clean energy workforce fell by nearly 37,000 jobs last year to 3.52 million. It was the first annual job loss in the U.S. clean economy since the pandemic-driven economic crisis, ending four consecutive years of strong growth. The reversal coincided with the sharp increase in clean energy project cancellations since the Trump administration and Congress began ending and rolling back federal support for clean energy and electric vehicles beginning in January 2025.

Emergency Management Organizational Structures, Staffing, and Capacity Finding Study, National Preparedness Analytics Center, Argonne National Laboratory

The study is the most comprehensive effort to capture foundational data about public sector emergency management (EM) agencies to date. It includes quantitative and qualitative data collection and analysis examining what EM agencies look like nationwide, the challenges they face, their directors’ strategic and tactical aspirations, and the relationship between agency characteristics and successful outcomes.

The Myth of “Baseload” Power in Modern Power Grids, Jennifer Danis and Christoph Graf, Institute for Policy Integrity

the authors the term “baseload” power, together with other reliability-related energy concepts that are often used interchangeably, or in various combinations, to describe the resources’ role in electricity markets and regarding grid reliability. They also discuss why, despite the rhetoric indicating that electric grid reliability is at risk because of retiring “baseload,” “dispatchable,” or “firm” resources, these terms have distinct meanings for reliability in a diversely resourced grid.

Global Hunger Index. No Security Without Food Security, Deutsche Welthungerhilfe, Institute for International Law of Peace and Armed Conflict and Helvetas

The Global Hunger Index (GHI) measures and compares the extent of various hunger indicators such as undernourishment and child mortality each year—worldwide, across regions, and in individual countries. Welthungerhilfe (WHH) releases the index annually with global, regional, and national figures. It aims to draw greater attention to the commitment to end hunger, to show in which regions of the world additional resources are most urgently needed, and to provide recommendations for action to eradicate hunger. Lower GHI scores indicate less hunger. Higher scores indicate more.

Global Estimate of Marine Oil Pollution, Skytruth

Marine oil pollution is a chronic and widespread global problem. Based on new model estimates, approximately 1.58 million km² of the world's ocean are covered in oil slicks each year from vessels and offshore platforms. Despite their protected status, many sensitive areas show some level of oil pollution. Oil pollution is occurring in many marine protected areas (MPAs), despite their designation. This can occur when slicks drift in from vessels and platforms operating outside the borders of protected areas. Certain sensitive areas are heavily impacted by oil pollution. Three of the most polluted Important Marine Mammal Areas (IMMA) occur in the Mediterranean Sea. Pollution is largely caused by vessel traffic and concentrated in specific fleets. Vessels are associated with about 81% of the estimated annual oil slick area that can be attributed to a source, including both AIS-tracked vessels and dark vessels, while offshore oil infrastructure is associated with about 18%. Tankers and cargo vessels are the dominant types of polluting vessels.

The Climate-Exposed Workforce: Expectations, Responsibility and Trust at Work, Anthony Langlois and Astghik Mavisakalyan, The Curtin Centre for Applied Ethics

What do Australian employees expect of their employers in a time of disruptive climate change? Drawing on a national survey of 2,048 working Australians, the authors examine what employees expect of business, how far they trust corporate climate claims, and what they are prepared to do about it.

2026 Healthy NDC Scorecard. A global assessment of how comprehensively health is integrated into national climate plans (NDCs), Global Climate and Health Alliance

The 2026 Healthy NDC Scorecards assess the extent to which governments’ national climate commitments recognise and respond to the abundant linkages with health. Nationally Determined Contributions, or NDCs, are climate action plans that countries submit every five years under the Paris Agreement. Using a point-based method, 117 NDCs detailing the climate plans of 132 countries were evaluated based on how frequently, where, and how effectively they include health-related issues across eight key categories: health impacts; air pollution; health sector action; health co-benefits; just transition; integrated governance; economics and finance; and, monitoring and implementation.

Hidden assets. The economic and health case for climate and clean air action, Dietz et al., United Nations Environment Program

Climate change and air pollution share many of the same sources, yet are almost always assessed separately. This Assessment corrects that. The authors evaluate 25 proven solutions across energy, industry, transport, agriculture, cooking and waste, and finds that integrated action delivers more than acting on either alone. Every dollar invested returns around 15 dollars, an internal rate of return of 60 per cent, with market returns exceeding costs within ten years. By 2050 the solutions could avoid 144 million premature deaths and hundreds of millions of cases of chronic disease. The chief obstacles are often neither technical nor economic, but institutional. Investment in enabling conditions can bring full implementation forward by up to a decade, worth up to US$10 trillion in savings by 2040. Every region benefits. Benefit-cost ratios range from three in high-income regions to 26 in Southern Africa. Every year of delay forgoes more than US$1.5 trillion.

Impact of Climate and Environmental Change on Brain Health, Matonte et al., NeuroClimate Working Group

Excessive heat impairs cognition, neurological function, mental wellbeing, and sleep, raises the risk of neurological diseases and self-harm, and is associated with an increase in emergency department visits for numerous psychiatric disorders. Extreme weather events bring injury, trauma, displacement, disrupted care, and chronic stress, with neurological and psychological consequences outlasting disasters years after they arrive. Air pollution increases the risk of stroke, neurodevelopmental disorders, neurodegeneration, and cognitive decline, and is estimated to contribute to roughly one in four dementia deaths worldwide. Food insecurity impairs brain development, cognition, and mental well-being, with the most severe impacts occurring in the critical first 1,000 days of life, perhaps the most important neurodevelopmental period. Soil and water contamination raise exposure to arsenic, pesticides, plastics, and heavy metals like lead and mercury: all neurotoxicants that act on neurological development and function across the lifespan.

An Inflection Point for the U.S. Power Sector, Tom Taylor and Rachel Reolfi, Atlas Public Policy and the Environmental Defense Fund

The authors found that America’s power pipeline is shifting sharply toward fossil fuels after years of clean power growth. Clean energy still dominates new power coming online today, reflecting projects planned and developed over several years. finding that America’s power pipeline is shifting sharply toward fossil fuels after years of clean power growth. Clean energy still dominates new power coming online today, reflecting projects planned and developed over several years. Fossil power development is accelerating as clean power faces growing headwinds. Aging coal plants are staying online longer. A fossil-heavy buildout could significantly raise electricity costs.

Oregon Data Center Advisory Committee: Preliminary Learnings and Questions Document, Oregon Data Center Advisory Committee

This document does not contain the Committee’s final recommendations. Instead, it provides a foundation for continued discussion and public comment. Following review of additional information and public input, the Committee expects to submit final recommendations to the Governor before the end of 2026. The Committee has reached the collective understanding that Oregon must consider the individual effects of data centers at the local level, the cumulative effects of multiple facilities operating in the same community, airshed, basin, or energy system, and the industry’s role in Oregon.

Financing the AI Buildout, Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh, Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Fall 2026

The author combines three elements. First, he quantifies the physical and financial scale of the AI infrastructure buildout and compares it with earlier U.S. infrastructure booms. Second, he describes the emerging capital stack, including the growing roles of third-party ownership, leases, project finance, private credit, and structured-finance vehicles, and uses Meta’s Hyperion transaction to illustrate these arrangements in detail. Third, he analyzes how this financial architecture allocates and potentially amplifies technological, operating, and demand risk, with particular attention to asset-level leverage, contingent obligations, and the visibility of exposures outside hyperscaler balance sheets.

Statewide Summary: California’s Fifth Climate Change Assessment, Becker Lowe et al., California Governor’s Office of Land Use and Climate Innovation

The Statewide Summary provides a high-level overview of key findings from across the Fifth Assessment’s research and data, and other relevant sources. It serves as an entry point to understanding the breadth of climate effects across California, and potential paths to build resilience based on the best available science and information. California will experience rising temperatures across the century. California will experience greater precipitation variability and more “climate whiplash.” California’s snowpack will decline substantially, affecting downstream water systems, local economies, and ecosystems. Climate change is reshaping California’s seasons, altering the timing, duration, and intensity of seasonal conditions. Wildfire smoke exposure and associated health risks are increasing. Extreme heat events are growing longer and more frequent. Climate risks are not distributed equally across California communities.

Geostationary Weather Satellites: Next Generation Program Challenges Put Vital Observations at Risk, Walsh et al., Government Accountability Office

Geostationary weather satellites provide critical information on atmospheric conditions, including severe storms and hurricanes. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration is working on acquiring the next generation of these satellites, called GeoXO. Starting in 2025, NOAA restructured the GeoXO program. It reduced the number of satellites and cut costs from $19.6 billion to $13 billion. But this program needs to document its new cost estimates. It also needs to fully incorporate lessons learned from prior programs—including contingency planning to address gaps in satellite weather data.

Emissions Gap Report 2026: The point of return – Urgent emissions cuts needed to come back from overshoot of 1.5°C, Olhoff et al., United Nations Environment Programme

The authors detail the cuts to emissions needed by 2030, 2035 and 2040 to get on a return pathway — finding that the cuts needed are far above what current Nationally Determined Contributions deliver. However, the authors find that it is possible to close this emissions gap — pointing to many successful climate policies that have already delivered real-world emissions cuts and could be scaled up globally to accelerate action. About New Research

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Categories: I. Climate Science

As El Niño fuels drought in Panama, trees help ranchers maintain their water supply

Wed, 10/21/2026 - 14:41

This article by Nicolas Scibelli first appeared on Yale Climate Connections and is republished here under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.

[Haz clic aquí para leer en español]

A single stream nourishes the cattle of Ismael “Jim” Solis’ ranch on Panama’s Azuero Peninsula, which juts out into the Pacific Ocean.

Solis has raised cattle through countless droughts and dry spells over the years, weathering them with little concern.

But as El Niño builds strength ahead of Panama’s coming dry season, he worries that for the first time, his stream may run dry. 

"We hope it keeps flowing, but we need more rain so it will last when the dry season comes,” he said. 

Solis has spent his life raising cattle on the Azuero since his family arrived decades ago in the small town of Los Asientos on the southern part of the peninsula. His ranch is one of many that dominate the region, checkering the landscape in a matrix of rolling pasture dotted with trees, the last reminders of the expansive forest that once blanketed the surrounding hillsides. 

Extreme drought has caused the artificial reservoir on Cecibet Peralta's ranch to run dry. (Image credit: Nicolas Scibelli)

Across the Azuero Peninsula, extreme drought is stretching water resources thin. To counter it, some are switching to a more sustainable system of cattle ranching known as silvopasture, a method that incorporates trees into the landscape and helps preserve water. Those who have made the switch say the increased tree cover has proven vital in maintaining water supply and grass yield while neighboring farms feel the effects.

Still, with forecasts of a historically strong El Niño building in the coming months, a difficult dry season lies ahead for silvopasture and conventional ranchers alike.

Feeling the heat

The Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology of Panama declared an El Niño alert in May, warning of drier conditions on the Azuero Peninsula and a 10-20% reduction in rainfall during the region’s typically wet season. As the months drag on, ranchers are seeing the effects. 

“In the past, it wouldn't have been as hard as it is this year,” said Edwin Carrasco, a silvopastoral rancher in Herrera province. 

Edwin Carrasco, a silvopasture rancher in Herrera province, Panama. (Image credit: Nicolas Scibelli)

The stream on Carrasco’s property has run dry, requiring him to pump water from a well on site. The ranch remains in a precarious position as drought lingers. 

"I'm frightened, because we don't know what we're going to do with the animals if it doesn't keep raining,” Carrasco said. 

In the nearby Los Santos province, Cecibet Peralta is another rancher dealing with water shortages. Peralta uses a large artificial reservoir on her ranch to water her cattle, though it historically has not always lasted through the dry season. Peralta recently expanded the reservoir’s capacity hoping it would provide year-round water, but with this year’s El Niño-charged drought, even the expansion has not been enough. 

The dry reservoir has forced Peralta to move her cattle to a neighboring farm with more stable water resources. She’s now looking to expand the reservoir again in an attempt to stay ahead of the rapidly changing climate.

Living fences separate fields on a silvopasture ranch just outside of Los Asientos on the southern part of Panama's Azuero Peninsula. (Nicolas Scibelli)

“Every year the summers are stronger,” she said. “The intense heat causes the water to be used up more quickly.”

With a seasonal dry climate, the Azuero is projected to experience higher temperatures and increasingly irregular rainfall patterns in the coming decades. As climate change potentially drives stronger El Niño events, prolonged droughts are likely to occur again in the future. 

Nature’s original solution

For years now, some on the Azuero have been planting trees on their farms and using a less intensive, mixed-rotation system known as silvopasture. Those who have established these systems say they are seeing the results as drought rages on. 

“Nowadays, we have a greater abundance of water because of the way it has been managed,” said Manuel Cedeño, a silvopastoral rancher from the small community of Los Asientos. "Better water quality, better forage for the animals; more biodiversity.”

In contrast to conventional systems that clear the land entirely for pasture, silvopasture incorporates planted and naturally regenerated trees into pastures for grazing. It also uses mixed-rotation cycles that reduce overgrazing and preserve soil health. 

A cow walking to pasture on a silvopasture ranch in Veraguas province, Panama. (Image credit: Nicolas Scibelli)

The conventional wisdom that trees are detrimental to cattle production is unfounded, according to Jake Slusser, a tropical forester working with Yale’s Environmental Training and Leadership Initiative. Slusser is not affiliated with Yale Climate Connections.

“Trees offer everything from shade, forage, fodder, fruit,” Slusser said. “Some trees fix nitrogen so that the pasture grass that they're eating has a lot higher nutritional content, especially in terms of protein.”

Silvopastoral systems are also crucial for preserving water levels and water quality. Most systems use pumps to transport water directly to cattle, reducing the need for cattle to travel directly to water sources while limiting pollution. Increased vegetation along riparian areas also improves shade cover, reducing evaporation.

“These are just in general much more resilient farms during El Niño years when you have these long-term droughts, because you're conserving and utilizing the water you have on [the] farm in a very efficient way,” Slusser said.

The Yale initiative has been working with ranchers on the Azuero since 2009, having helped many farmers make the change to silvopastoral systems. Thousands of hectares of land on the peninsula have been deforested or degraded since ranchers began clearing the region in the 1940s, the majority of which are still actively used for cattle grazing today. Slusser said silvopasture presents an opportunity to improve environmental outcomes in actively farmed areas.

“That's where the most degraded landscapes are,” he said. “It allows the biggest potential because you're not replacing people's traditional livelihoods; you're enhancing them by doing silvopasture.”

A solar-powered well on a silvopasture ranch outside of Los Asientos. The pump provides water for the ranch's cattle and protects water quality. (Image credit: Nicolas Scibelli)

The transition to silvopasture is not seamless, as significant upfront financial and technical investments are required. Silvopasture also does not entirely reduce the negative environmental impacts of cattle ranching, with substantial climate-warming methane emissions still caused by the practice.

Still, the positive effects are clear to ranchers in water-stressed areas like the Azuero. For those like Solis who have not yet made the transition to silvopasture, this year’s drought is making a compelling case to do so. 

"If you don't reforest, the water disappears more quickly,” he said.

Looking ahead to a drier future

This year’s extreme drought has been a reason for many to begin examining the future of their farms more closely. The dry season still looms on the horizon, and water resources on many ranches have already been stretched thin. With extreme weather events becoming increasingly common throughout Latin America, some believe silvopasture offers a potential solution moving forward. 

“This is one of the ways we can mitigate climate change and help the planet benefit," Cedeño said. 

Cows grazing in a mixed-rotation pasture outside of Los Asientos. (Image credit: Nicolas Scibelli)

For Cedeño, the change to silvopasture has been a worthy investment. Although the drought is providing new challenges on his ranch, he nonetheless feels secure that his cattle will have water throughout the coming year. Cedeño has already helped several other ranchers in Los Asientos make the change to silvopastoral systems and is looking to expand his own operation even further. 

He hopes that in the future, farms like his will be the norm.

"The culture of the farmers in this Azuero area had always been to cut down the trees, plant pasture, and raise cattle,” he said. “If we could change that mindset, I think we could accomplish much more.”

//
Categories: I. Climate Science

The strongest El Niño in a thousand years?

Mon, 10/19/2026 - 13:16

This is a re-post from The Climate Brink

Earlier this summer I told a journalist that it was not beyond the realm of possibility that this year’s El Niño would end up the strongest in 500 or even 1,000 years. That was a strong claim at the time, and I’ve had a few people ask how I could possibly know what El Niño was doing in the year 1200. It is a fair question, and the answer is that we know more than you might think.

This year’s El Niño event is already the strongest in the instrumental record based on Niño 3.4 region sea surface temperature anomalies. I’ve written in more detail about this year’s forecast here, and breaking the prior record over at Carbon Brief.

Daily Niño 3.4 anomalies passed the prior record (set in November 2015) on September 20th, and reached 3.4C as of this week. September as a whole had the highest Niño 3.4 temperature anomalies on record. And this year’s El Niño still has a few more months to grow; the latest runs in (from 14 seasonal forecast models) show this year’s El Niño peaking around 4C (with 80% of model runs ending up somewhere between 3.3C and 4.6C).

Multi-model median Niño 3.4 forecast from each month’s initializations, March through October 2026, compared with observed monthly values (NOAA CPC). Medians are across all ensemble members with models weighted equally; months with fewer than six models are omitted. Shading shows the 25–75% range of members for the October runs. Data from NOAA NMME and CFSv2, Copernicus C3S, ECCC CanSIPS and JAMSTEC SINTEX-F via the Climate Dashboard.

That being said, while the models underestimated the magnitude of the event earlier in the year, they have overestimated it over the past two months. However, with the first week of October already above 3C, the October forecast of 3.6C doesn’t seem outside the realm of possibility. But there remains a wide range of possible outcomes for this event across different modeling groups and ensemble members.

How far back can we look?

The figure below looks at three different lines of evidence for historical El Niño strength. The top panel shows the thermometer record, where this event has already set a record for events since 1877 and is forecast to smash it. The two lower panels show different lines of evidence from tree rings and corals as to what happened during the millennium before.

Top: peak monthly Niño 3.4 anomaly of every El Niño since 1877, each measured against its own era’s climatology (NOAA OISST from 1982, HadISST reconstruction earlier) as well as the 2026–27 forecast median and 10–90% range of member peaks. Middle: winter (December–February) Niño 3.4 reconstructed from tree rings by Cook and Cane (2024), 1100–2000, relative to 1871–2000, with instrumental winters overlaid in blue and the 2026–27 winter forecast (median and 10–90% range of members). Bottom: 20-year running variability of interannual sea surface temperature from Galápagos corals, from Figure 2 of Cole et al. (2026). Each mark is one coral record (circles: oxygen isotopes; triangles: strontium/calcium), showing the mean and range of its 20-year variability.

Before 1877 there are also written records to draw from. Quinn et al. (1987) compiled El Niño occurrences off Peru back to 1525 from ship logs, mission records and chronicles, and Gergis and Fowler (2008) combined these with tree ring, coral and ice core records into an event chronology back to the same year. Five of the nine events in their most extreme tier are from the 20th century.

But these chronologies sort events into coarse classes and miss a lot (they rate the 1997-98 event as only “weak”, for example), so are only modest evidence for how a 4C event this year would rank. The two records shown in the figure above, from tree rings and coral, reach back to the 1100s and can give us a more solid estimate of how this year’s event will stack up.

Tree rings back to 1100

Cook and Cane (2024) (middle panel of the figure above) used 544 tree-ring chronologies from places whose rainfall responds to El Niño to reconstruct winter (December to February) sea surface temperatures across the equatorial Pacific. However, only 81 of those chronologies reach all the way back to 1100s. If we look at the data since 1500 (when more tree rings are available), it tracks observed winter Niño 3.4 reasonably well, with a typical error of about 0.5C in any one winter. The one starting in 1100 is noisier, with a typical error of about 0.6C.

The largest winter either version reconstructs before 1871 is 2.1C (1746-47 in one, 1791-92 in the other), and the largest before 1500 is 2.0C (1121-22). The biggest instrumental winters (1877-78, 1982-83, 1997-98 and 2015-16) all come in between 2.3C and 2.5C on the same measure. The forecast for the coming winter is 3.9C (with 80% of model members between 2.9C and 4.6C).1

To account for the uncertainty in the tree ring dataset, I simulated the range of true values each winter before 1871 could have had, given how far off the reconstruction was in the years it was tested on.2 If models of this year’s El Niño prove accurate, the chance that this winter beats every winter since 1100 is between 91% and 95% on the standard Niño 3.4 index. On NOAA’s relative index (RONI), which subtracts the warming of the wider tropics, it falls to between 60% and 72%. Over the past 500 years, where the reconstruction is better, the odds rise to between 94% and 98% and between 69% and 85% for ONI and RONI, respectively. Cook and Cane similarly note that “The positive excursions (i.e., El Niño events) in recent decades are generally higher than at any time since 1100.”

What the corals say

The second long record came out in August of this year, when Julia Cole and colleagues published a study in Science using 28 coral records from five islands in the Galápagos. The Galápagos sit in the eastern Pacific, where El Niño events (including this year’s) are centered. Corals lay down annual bands whose chemistry tracks the temperature of the water they grew in, so a fossil coral can be used as a rough thermometer for whatever decades it was alive. The oldest of these corals grew around 1130, and together they sample about half the years of the past millennium.

Corals cannot tell you the peak of a single El Niño as reliably as a thermometer (or a tree ring) can. What they measure well is how much the sea surface temperature swung from year to year over a 20-year window. Through 1850, the year-to-year swings stay inside a relatively narrow band. They begin to rise in the late 19th century, and the corals that grew after 1984 sit mostly above the pre-industrial range. Cole and colleagues find that variability before 1850 was about 37% lower than in recent decades.3 They find the increase comes from stronger El Niño events rather than stronger La Niñas.

They also tested whether natural factors alone could produce a jump this large, using last-millennium simulations from 12 climate models driven only by volcanoes, the sun and changes in Earth’s orbit (as well as control runs with no changes). They find that the increase in variability in the modern era come close to 1-in-100 odds in climate model control runs. Other proxy work finds similar results, including studies of central Pacific corals (Grothe et al., 2020) and an earlier tree-ring reconstruction covering seven centuries (Li et al., 2013).

Putting the two records together

The tree rings and the corals are about as independent as two paleoclimate records can be. One reads El Niño’s effect on rainfall over land through tree growth, and the other reads ocean temperature directly in the eastern Pacific. They agree that the El Niños of recent decades are at or near the top of everything since the 1100s, and the 2026 forecast sits more than a degree above those recent events.

However, climate proxies are necessarily imperfect thermometers, and both types have real limits. Tree rings underestimated the 1877-78 El Niño event and come with uncertainties of more than 0.5C before 1500 (though I account for this uncertainty in my calculation of the odds!). The corals record variability over decades rather than the peak of any one event, they measure local Galápagos temperature rather than the Niño 3.4 index, and the gaps between them leave about half the years unsampled.

Even taking all those limitations into account, I think that this year’s El Niño event is likely to be the strongest in 1,000 years if the latest models of its peak prove accurate. The tree rings alone give it 91% to 95% odds on the standard index (ONI) and 60% to 72% using RONI. The coral records already show that the modern era stands outside the natural range of eastern Pacific variability, and this year will be an unambiguous record in the modern era.

As always, for daily updates on the El Niño forecast and global temperatures head over to our Climate Dashboard.

1 These numbers reflect the same winter averages used by the tree ring proxies, and are lower than the peak monthly estimates for the event as they reflect a three-month average.

2 To do this, I fit observed winter Niño 3.4 against the reconstruction over the withheld years 1871-1929 (a slope of 0.92 and residual error of 0.49C for the version from 1500, 0.75 and 0.64C for the version from 1100), resampled those years to capture uncertainty in the fit, generated plausible true values for every winter before 1871. I repeated this analysis 20,000 times, and took the largest each time.

3 Cole and colleagues measure the change relative to recent decades, so their percentage describes how much weaker pre-industrial variability was. When measured against the pre-industrial, they find that recent variability is roughly 60% higher.

Categories: I. Climate Science

2026 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #42

Sun, 10/18/2026 - 08:21
A listing of 28 news and opinion articles we found interesting and shared on social media during the past week: Sun, October 11, 2026 thru Sat, October 17, 2026. Stories we promoted this week, by category:

Climate Science and Research (6 items)

Climate Policy and Politics (5 items)

Climate Change Impacts (4 items)

Climate Education and Communication (3 items)

Miscellaneous (3 items)

Public Misunderstandings about Climate Solutions (2 items)

Climate Law and Justice (1 item)

Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation (1 item)

Geoengineering (1 item)

Health Aspects of Climate Change (1 item)

Public Misunderstandings about Climate Science (1 item)

If you happen upon high quality climate-science and/or climate-myth busting articles from reliable sources while surfing the web, please feel free to submit them via this Google form so that we may share them widely. Thanks!
Categories: I. Climate Science

Skeptical Science New Research for Week #42 2026

Thu, 10/15/2026 - 11:23
Open access notables

Fingerprint Evidence for Human Effects on Climate: Advances After the 2009 Endangerment Finding, Santer et al., Earth s Future

Here we briefly review key advances in the field of climate fingerprinting. Fingerprint studies rely on pattern information to identify human and natural influences on Earth's climate. Our focus is on advances after 2009—the date of the finding by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) that emissions of six different greenhouse gases affect Earth's climate and endanger human health and welfare. In contrast to the conclusions from a 2025 review of climate science issued by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), we demonstrate that post-2009 scientific advances have markedly increased confidence in the identification of significant anthropogenic contributions to global climate change. These advances were enabled by longer and improved observations of climate change, by large single-model and multi-model ensembles of simulations that yield estimates of forced climate change signals and natural variability, and by the application of climate fingerprint methods to a wide array of independently monitored variables. Increasingly, scientists are now able to quantify the impact of human-caused climate change on the probability and intensity of certain types of extreme event, particularly in the case of heat waves and the heavy rainfall in some regions. In tandem with such scientific advances, global warming has also advanced: the post-2009 period included the 10 warmest years in instrumental surface temperature records, enhancing the signal of human-caused warming relative to intrinsic variability. The evidence for pervasive human fingerprints throughout Earth's climate system is incontrovertible.

Extreme Heat and Rainfall Risk Attributed to Cumulative CO2 Emissions From Fossil Fuel Producers, Callahan, Earth s Future

Legal and political approaches to climate accountability require demonstrating that a particular emitter contributed to a climate impact, but quantitative solutions to this attribution challenge remain nascent. This study leverages the proportionality of global warming to cumulative CO2 emissions to develop statistical models that directly predict extreme climate risk from cumulative emissions. Results show that cumulative emissions from individual actors have increased the probability of extreme heat and rainfall globally; for example, emissions from the United States have increased the risk of recent extreme heat by at least 50% for one-third of the globe. Focusing on specific events demonstrates that emissions from major fossil fuel firms increased the likelihood of the 2021 Pacific Northwest heat wave by 31% and 2022 extreme rainfall in Pakistan by 7%. These results demonstrate a flexible attribution framework grounded in the proportional relationships that inform climate policy, with the potential to guide efficient climate accountability assessments.

Record-setting heavy precipitation occurrence in 2024, Thackeray et al., Science Advances

Precipitation extremes have increased globally in recent decades, consistent with a warming climate. We find that 2024 experienced a record-high frequency of heavy (≥99th percentile; FP≥99) precipitation events globally based on MSWEP (Multi-Source Weighted-Ensemble Precipitation) observations from 1979 to 2025. This extends a long-term trend of ∼0.03%/decade in FP≥99, with similar but more uncertain increases for the 99.9th percentile. Unlike prior high FP≥99 years, 2024’s record was more globally distributed and emerged from a distinct seasonal evolution. El Niño and rare concurrent multi-basin tropical ocean warmth drove elevated extremes early in the year, before lagged global tropospheric responses and long-term warming sustained and amplified extremes through boreal summer. Climate models indicate that years with 2024-level FP≥99 typically require either stronger El Niño forcing or concurrent multi-basin sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies. Diagnostic projections within constrained ensemble members suggest that ∼40% of the 2024 anomaly aligns with global mean temperatures and ∼20% with El Niño variability, with some of the remainder linked to basin-scale SST structure.

A recent doubling of global warming rate signals a 1.5 °C breach by 2028, Jin & Pu, npj Climate and Atmospheric Scienc

Timely and accurate projections of when global warming will exceed the Paris Agreement’s 1.5 °C threshold are essential for effective climate policy. Existing estimates place this exceedance in the early 2030 s but carry substantial uncertainty. Here we analyze the latest observational temperature records through 2025 and identify a statistically significant doubling of the global warming rate during 2011–2025 (0.40 °C per decade) compared to 1971–2025 (0.20 °C per decade). Extrapolating this accelerated rate projects a crossing of the 1.5 °C threshold by 2028, nearly a decade earlier than previous estimates. Regional analyses attribute this acceleration primarily to intensified warming over East Asia–the North Pacific, mid-latitude Eurasia, and the South Atlantic–Antarctic regions. The ensemble mean of 26 climate models fails to capture the observed doubling of the warming rate, simulating a rate of only 0.29 °C per decade. These findings suggest a narrower window remains to limit warming to 1.5 °C, underscoring the urgency for rapid  and substantial reductions in greenhouse gas emissions.

Learning from young conservatives: Increasing pro-environmental behavior change and climate policy support in the United States, Caballero et al., Energy Research & Social Science

This study uses a mixed-methods (i.e., virtual focus groups with group discussion based on live polling results) approach to explore which potential interventions show the most promise for engaging conservatives on the topics of climate policy and household action, specifically among young people in the United States (U.S.). In coordination with the non-profit organization American Conservation Coalition (ACC), we held six virtual focus groups with ACC members from geographically diverse chapters. Using our mixed methods approach, we explored political efficacy, as suggested by ACC members, as well as four messaging types informed by the social psychological literature: superordinate identities, solution aversion, pluralistic ignorance, and personal responsibility. Our results suggest that young conservative study participants identified messages intended to address solution aversion and pluralistic ignorance to be most promising. Our results also suggest that although young conservative participants in the study tend to engage in incremental, convenient pro-environmental behaviors, they are optimistic about the potential for positive spillover effects. Additionally, our focus groups revealed that a promising area of future study is that young conservatives could serve as important messengers for pro-environmental individual action and support for climate and energy policies among their conservative peers. Thus, the study suggests promising topics for research on the role that young conservatives could play in supporting climate and energy-related initiatives.

From this week's government/NGO section:

Spinning Renewable Success Into a Climate Conspiracy: Co-opting the climate science story of RCP8.5, Climate Action Against Disinformation

Fossil fuels cause climate change, and replacing them with renewables will keep our climate safe for human civilization and natural ecosystems. The progress we made towards a cleaner future means that the worst possible fossil fueled warming gets less and less likely. Thanks to the massive growth in renewables, we are finally winning the climate fight- so why are some people claiming exactly the opposite, that it was a hoax all along? Over the years, “Representative Concentration Pathways”, or RCP scenarios have been refined, as renewable energy has gained momentum around the world, pushing the planet away from the most-heavily-fossil-fueled future that represented the worst-case scenario of a climate crisis, and into slightly safer territory. But this good news, tempered as it is by the incredible amount of work remaining to fully decarbonize, is highly technical, scientific, and detailed. That is not, however, how it was portrayed in the fossil fueled disinformation ecosystem, that instead interpreted it as evidence confirming a climate conspiracy theory.

Manufacturing Petropopulism: Exposing the secretive network of front groups shilling for Big Oil in Canada, Abde Amr and Keith Stewart, Greenpeace

The authors' investigation has identified a shadowy and coordinated network of pro–fossil fuel front groups, companies, think tanks, and charities that claim to have reached over one hundred million people. Based on materials and data from the entities involved, this investigation reveals influence efforts by the oil-linked Energy in Action (EIA) network, whose members are receiving funding and support from the Canadian Energy Prosperity (CEP) group, aiming to shape the energy conversation in Canada. Over 30 entities, targeting six different sectors, have been identified as part of a coordinated network, operating under the EIA umbrella and supported by CEP to manufacture support for the oil and gas industry and advance its' narratives. EIA appears to be linked to the Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers (CAPP), with many network entities receiving direct funding from the oil and gas sector. The network spreads its' influence across diverse sectors, including technology, grassroots advocacy, and industry trade associations, targeting specific groups including women, youth, students, and Indigenous communities among others.

The AI Gas Rush: Risks and Implications of “Bring Your Own Power”, Bangsund et al., Earthjustice

The race to scale artificial intelligence is driving an unprecedented rush to build power plants solely to power data centers that are predominantly gas-powered. These power plants are evading regulations, harming communities and the climate, and are not a solution to rising energy bills. The authors explore and analyzes this trend. Policymakers across the nation are incentivizing or requiring Bring-Your-Own-Power (BYOP) in an attempt to address energy bill impacts from new AI data centers. But AI data center developers are turning to BYOP to gain access to power as quickly as possible (“speed-to-power”) — not to solve the energy bill impacts of AI. The authors find potential ratepayer benefits are not guaranteed, while harms of the massive gas BYOP buildout have been inadequately addressed. 143 articles in 58 journals by 1015 contributing authors

Physical science of climate change, effects

A recent doubling of global warming rate signals a 1.5 °C breach by 2028, Jin & Pu, npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41612-026-01561-y

Forest and bioenergy expansion amplifies climate warming by accelerating regional cloud loss, Liu et al., Atmospheric chemistry and physics Open Access 10.5194/acp-26-14133-2026

Ocean thermal inertia sustains a tropical Pacific mean state shift under net zero, Sengupta et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-026-04082-x

On the Changes in the Connection Between SSWs and Surface Extreme Weather in Response to an Abrupt 4xCO2 Increase, Maeseneire et al., Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres 10.1029/2025jd045140

Phase Transition of CO2-Driven Equatorial Pacific Warming Pattern Governed by Ocean Dynamics and Remote Forcing, Olonscheck & Kang, AGU Advances Open Access pdf 10.1029/2026av002437

Stratospheric Temperature Adjustment Robustly Damps the State Dependence of CO2 Radiative Forcing, He & Huang, Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2026gl123839

The Weakest Warming Rate in Spring over the Mid- to High-Latitude Land in a Warming Climate, Dong et al., Journal of Climate 10.1175/jcli-d-26-0222.1

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago: Temperature sensitivity of the mineral permafrost feedback at the continental scale, Science Advances, 10.1126/sciadv.adq4893 21 cites.

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Observations of climate change, effects

An abrupt shift towards a hotter and drier climate regime in the Western Eurasian Steppe, Piao et al., Nature Geoscience 10.1038/s41561-026-02125-8

Fingerprint Evidence for Human Effects on Climate: Advances After the 2009 Endangerment Finding, Santer et al., Earth s Future Open Access pdf 10.1029/2026ef009129

From paper to proof: revealing Congo Basin warming through rescued climate archives, Muheki et al., Earth System Dynamics Open Access 10.5194/esd-17-1455-2026

Global expansion of compound drought–heatwave risk, Sutanto et al., Natural hazards and earth system sciences Open Access pdf 10.5194/nhess-25-3879-2025

Record-setting heavy precipitation occurrence in 2024, Thackeray et al., Science Advances Open Access 10.1126/sciadv.aeb1692

Satellite altimetry reveals heterogeneity in global flood peak timing and its shifts, Zhou et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-026-04115-5

Spatiotemporal Evolution of Temperature Extremes Across India's Agro-Climatic Zones, Misra et al., International Journal of Climatology 10.1002/joc.70621

Temperature Change in Mode Water Source Regions, Song & Forget, Journal of Climate 10.1175/jcli-d-26-0127.1

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago: Surging compound drought–heatwaves underrated in global soils, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 10.1073/pnas.2410294121 60 cites.

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Instrumentation & observational methods of climate change, effects

A framework for quantifying the effects of urbanization on regional climate change in a coastal watershed Southeast China: A nonstationary grid-to-grid method, Zhang et al., Anthropocene 10.1016/j.ancene.2026.100590

Extreme Heat and Rainfall Risk Attributed to Cumulative CO2 Emissions From Fossil Fuel Producers, Callahan, Earth s Future Open Access 10.1029/2026ef008278

Fingerprint Evidence for Human Effects on Climate: Advances After the 2009 Endangerment Finding, Santer et al., Earth s Future Open Access pdf 10.1029/2026ef009129

From paper to proof: revealing Congo Basin warming through rescued climate archives, Muheki et al., Earth System Dynamics Open Access 10.5194/esd-17-1455-2026

Global Assessment and Error Budget of EarthCARE Column Aerosol Optical Depth: Physical Limits and Quantitative Mitigation, Xiong et al., Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres 10.1029/2026jd048195

Uneven attention to climate tipping points, Wang et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Open Access 10.1073/pnas.2618666123

Modeling, simulation & projection of climate change, effects

Arctic climate tipping points under delayed CO2 emissions mitigation, Wu et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-026-03872-7

Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation Weakening in CMIP6: Labrador Sea Surface Fluxes and Salt Transport Feedback, Lim et al., Journal of Climate 10.1175/jcli-d-25-0487.1

East Pacific Easterly Waves in the CESM2 Large Ensemble: Present-Day Characteristics and Projected Future Changes, Zhou & Maloney, Journal of Climate 10.1175/jcli-d-26-0132.1

Historical to future warm–dry to warm–wet transition over Mongolia and its permafrost regions (1850–2100), MA et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access pdf 10.1016/j.accre.2026.09.014

Interpreting Air Temperature Trends Across the Antarctic Peninsula Between 1979 and 2025, Aa et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1029/2026gl125798

No critical slowing down in the Atlantic Overturning Circulation in historical CMIP6 simulations, Ben-Yami et al., PLOS Climate Open Access pdf 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000781

Structural Compactness of North Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Seeds in Historical and Projected Climates, Lu & Reed, Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2026gl124707

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago: Customized Statistically Downscaled CMIP5 and CMIP6 Projections: Application in the Edwards Aquifer Region in South-Central Texas, Earth s Future, 10.1029/2024ef004716 10 cites.

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Advancement of climate & climate effects modeling, simulation & projection

A Crucial Role of Land–Atmosphere Interactions in Shaping Subseasonal Convective Variability over the Maritime Continent in Idealized Model Simulations, Jiang & Ma, Journal of Climate 10.1175/jcli-d-25-0654.1

Evaluating Statistical Downscaling Techniques for Regional Hydroclimatic Change Projections Over CONUS, Lybarger et al., Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres Open Access pdf 10.1029/2026jd046624

Global Asymmetric Temperature Responses of Soil Respiration During Warming and Cooling Phases, Feng et al., Global Biogeochemical Cycles Open Access pdf 10.1029/2026gb009547

Impacts of Sea Surface Temperature Warming Pattern Biases on Tropical Cyclone Activity and Hazard, Zhuo et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2026gl124022

Resolution Dependence in a Global Atmospheric Simulation From km to 220 m Grid Spacing, Matsugishi et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1029/2026gl124411

Resolution Dependence of the Climate Feedback Parameter in Km-Scale Climate Models, Peinado et al., MPG.PuRe (Max Planck Society) pmh:oai:pure.mpg.de:item_3713425

Role of Shortwave Feedback in Non-Linear Response to CO2 Forcing in GFDL CM4.0, Shrestha et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1029/2026gl122888

Southeast Asian climate and weather extremes simulated by the nextGEMS Earth system models, Koseki et al., Frontiers in Climate Open Access 10.3389/fclim.2026.1915833

The role of the QBO for tropical high-cloud variability in CMIP6 models and observations, Jaison et al., Atmospheric chemistry and physics Open Access pdf 10.5194/acp-26-14403-2026

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago: Selecting CMIP6 global climate models (GCMs) for Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) dynamical downscaling over Southeast Asia using a standardised benchmarking framework, Geoscientific model development, 10.5194/gmd-17-7285-2024 17 cites.

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Cryosphere & climate change

Antarctic sea ice response to meltwater due to Antarctic ice sheet mass loss in a multi-model ensemble, Pauling et al., cryosphere Open Access 10.5194/tc-20-5761-2026

On the possibility of deep seabed permafrost to occupy Ca. 7 million km2 in the Arctic Ocean, Dobi?ski & Saitô, Scientific Reports Open Access 10.1038/s41598-026-68112-6

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago: Environmental and societal consequences of winter ice loss from lakes, Science, 10.1126/science.adl3211 45 cites.

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Sea level & climate change

Contribution of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation to Global Mean Sea Level Trends: Revisited, Wang & Chen, Geophysical Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1029/2026gl124649

Sea-level contribution from Thwaites Glacier doubles in an observation-constrained ice-sheet model, Poinelli et al., Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-026-77976-1

Paleoclimate & paleogeochemistry

Ancient terrestrial forests reborn as modern marine ecosystems under shifting sea levels, Lebrato et al., Scientific Reports Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41598-026-65430-7

Antarctic sea ice over the past 130 000 years – Part 2: A review of its role in the Earth system, Chase et al., Climate of the past Open Access pdf 10.5194/cp-22-1881-2026

Evidence for Limited Atmospheric CO2 Rise at the Miocene Climatic Optimum, Wubben et al., Paleoceanography and Paleoclimatology Open Access 10.1029/2025pa005388

Shifts in Antarctic Intermediate Water properties coincide with atmospheric CO2 rise across the Mid-Brunhes Event, Tapia et al., Science Advances Open Access 10.1126/sciadv.ady4567

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago: Centennial-scale variations in the carbon cycle enhanced by high obliquity, Nature Geoscience, 10.1038/s41561-024-01556-5 7 cites.

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Biology & climate change, related geochemistry

A process-based spring phenology framework for projecting climate-change constraints on Chinese hickory cultivation areas, Li et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 10.1016/j.agrformet.2026.111506

Climate-driven adaptive microevolution in wild yeasts, Oporto et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Open Access 10.1073/pnas.2618715123

Climate-driven expansion and richness hotspots of forest insect pests revealed by stacked species distribution models, Zhou et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology Open Access 10.1016/j.agrformet.2026.111494

Contrasting climatic controls on bimodal growth of Pinus elliottii plantations between northern and southern subtropical zones, Li et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology Open Access 10.1016/j.agrformet.2026.111526

Cumulative effects of successive marine heatwaves impair physiological resilience in the clam Ruditapes philippinarum., Lebrun et al., Marine Environmental Research 10.1016/j.marenvres.2026.108467

Determining soil microbial responses to climate change with multi-omics, Wu, Nature Reviews Earth & Environment 10.1038/s43017-026-00845-4

Elevated CO2 amplifies contrasting cultivar-specific plant–soil feedbacks mediated by soil biota, Zhang et al., Journal of Ecology Open Access pdf 10.1111/1365-2745.70445

Faster-and-tighter nitrogen cycle supports mature forest productivity under elevated CO2, Rumeau et al., Science Advances Open Access 10.1126/sciadv.aed2732

Global change threatens the biodiversity of cold regions: Current knowledge and priorities for further research, Renault et al., Ecology 10.1002/ecy.70537

Increasing Climate Constraint on Vegetation Productivity Under Rising CO2 in Northeast Asia, Wang et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2026gl124463

Local forest structure modifies realized climate vulnerability under macroclimatic forcing: Attribution from a national forest inventory, Ji et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology Open Access 10.1016/j.agrformet.2026.111510

Ocean acidification pushes Mediterranean marine calcifiers toward a tipping point, Frontalini et al., Scientific Reports Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41598-026-70159-4

Parasitoid insects unveil complex patterns of functional change across elevational bands, Gabrieli et al., Ecography Open Access pdf 10.1002/ecog.08816

Phenological Flexibility in Nesting Grassland Birds Over a Half Century Informs Timing of Management, Ellis et al., Global Change Biology Open Access pdf 10.1111/gcb.71128

Rapid coral bleaching recovery via symbiont transfer from healthy corals, Webster, Environmental Microbiology Reports 10.1111/1758-2229.12500

Reduced size of larvae and small fish linked to warming and reduced prey density, Lindmark et al., Ecography Open Access pdf 10.1002/ecog.08354

Safeguarding global terrestrial vertebrate species from future sea-level rise, Jiang et al., Science 10.1126/science.aed5772

Species-specific reduction of survival and predation in ladybirds exposed to prolonged and intensified heat waves, Cecchetto et al., Ecology Open Access pdf 10.1002/ecy.70529

Strengthened sink control under heatwaves contributes to changes in the phenological sequence of photosynthesis and growth, Lin et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology Open Access 10.1016/j.agrformet.2026.111507

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago: Trajectories of Terrestrial Vegetation Productivity and Its Driving Factors in China's Drylands, Geophysical Research Letters, 10.1029/2024gl111391 47 cites.

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GHG sources & sinks, flux, related geochemistry

A Net CO2 Sink in the Korea Strait and East/Japan Sea Revealed by Direct Eddy Covariance Measurements, Hamzah et al., Journal of Geophysical Research Oceans Open Access 10.1029/2026jc024139

Active and passive satellite observations coupled with carbon–nitrogen synergy for urban fossil fuel CO2 emissions monitoring, Yi et al., Atmospheric chemistry and physics Open Access 10.5194/acp-26-8475-2026

Air–sea CO2 exchange in the Southern Adriatic Sea: assessing its role as a moderate carbon sink over the last decade (2015–2024), Dentico et al., Biogeosciences Open Access pdf 10.5194/bg-23-5399-2026

An Activity-Based Inversion Framework for Estimating Sectoral Anthropogenic CO2 Emissions Using Multi-Pollutant Satellite Observations, Qu, Geophysical Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1029/2026gl122365

CO2 Emissions From Rivers Draining the Tibetan Plateau Reveal Substantial Increases Over the Past 20 Years, Iwan et al., Global Biogeochemical Cycles Open Access 10.1029/2025gb009016

Contribution of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation to Global Mean Sea Level Trends: Revisited, Wang & Chen, Geophysical Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1029/2026gl124649

Disproportionate Soil Inorganic Carbon Loss and Associated CO2 Emission Driven by Soil Acidification, Zhang et al., Earth s Future Open Access 10.1029/2026ef008227

Drivers of 2023–2024 Atmospheric CO2 Growth: Role of Northern Mid-to-High Latitude Land Carbon Cycle, Maity et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2026gl122221

Elevated CO2 amplifies contrasting cultivar-specific plant–soil feedbacks mediated by soil biota, Zhang et al., Journal of Ecology Open Access pdf 10.1111/1365-2745.70445

Fire-derived ozone intensifies carbon loss in Amazon forests under extreme droughts, Brown et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-026-04047-0

Frontal Dynamics Control the Contrasting Burial of Labile Organic Carbon and Refractory Black Carbon in Surface Sediments of the Northwestern South China Sea, Lao et al., Journal of Geophysical Research Oceans Open Access pdf 10.1029/2026jc024605

Global and National CO2 Emission from Lime Production Process and Carbonation sink from 1930 to 2024, Bing et al., Earth system science data Open Access 10.5194/essd-18-6741-2026

Groundwater is an overlooked component of the global methane cycle, Li et al., Earth-Science Reviews 10.1016/j.earscirev.2026.105725

Herbivorous Vertebrates Decrease CO2 Sequestration Across Global Terrestrial Ecosystems, Wu et al., Global Biogeochemical Cycles 10.1029/2025gb008878

In Situ and Space-Based CO2 Observations Reveal Moisture-Induced Seasonal Compensation of the Western U.S. Carbon Cycle, Rastogi et al., Global Biogeochemical Cycles Open Access 10.1029/2026gb009121

Inferring European fossil fuel CO2 emissions using TROPOMI NO2 data and sector-based NOx : CO2 emission ratios, Schooling et al., Atmospheric chemistry and physics Open Access 10.5194/acp-26-13743-2026

Lateral Accounting of Transport in Terrestrial Ecosystems (LATTE): A High-Resolution Global Land-Atmosphere CO2 Flux Data Set From 1961 to 2022 for Atmospheric Inversions and Carbon Budgeting Studies, Ciais et al., Global Biogeochemical Cycles Open Access pdf 10.1029/2026gb009142

Long-Term CO2 Emissions From Anthropogenic Sectors and Recent Climatology of India, Jayachandran et al., Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres 10.1029/2025jd046124

Mapping Global Terrestrial Spatiotemporal Dynamics of Atmospheric CO2 Carbon Isoscapes for Ecological Studies, Feng et al., Global Change Biology 10.1111/gcb.71002

Mechanisms of air–sea CO2 exchange in the central Baltic Sea, Dong et al., Atmospheric chemistry and physics Open Access pdf 10.5194/acp-26-5567-2026

More Frequent and Enhanced Extreme Events of Air–Sea CO2 Fluxes, Cheng et al., Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres Open Access pdf 10.1029/2025jd044933

Observation-Constrained Fossil Fuel CO2 Emissions Reveal Post-2018 Stabilization in China, Feng et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2026gl121913

Poleward Shift of Arctic Oceanic CO2 Uptake From Asymmetric Seasonal Changes Under Climate Warming, Pan et al., Earth s Future Open Access 10.1029/2025ef007550

Prescribed Fire Mitigates Climate-Driven Aboveground Carbon Losses From Wildfire in High Elevation Ecosystems of the Sierra Nevada, Cale et al., Journal of Geophysical Research Biogeosciences Open Access pdf 10.1029/2026jg009930

Probabilistic Wetland Maps for Mapping Soil Carbon Stock Distribution Across the Pacific Northwest, Stewart et al., Journal of Geophysical Research Biogeosciences Open Access 10.1029/2025jg009633

Quantifying Deep Ocean Methane Along the Central Chilean Margin, Wieman et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1029/2026gl124079

Regime shifts in South Florida groundwater: distinguishing upstream recharge from coastal sea level influences (1997–2022), Zeleke et al., Environmental Monitoring and Assessment Open Access pdf 10.1007/s10661-026-16000-x

Satellite observations reveal underestimation of CO2 emissions in Africa and the Middle East, Lin et al., Science Advances Open Access 10.1126/sciadv.aee1447

Sea level-induced oyster reef accretion causes minimal net carbon burial change, Rodriguez et al., Nature Geoscience 10.1038/s41561-026-02121-y

Separating Environmental Modulation From Source Intermittency in Methane Leakage From a Legacy Well in British Columbia, Pullen & Cahill, Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres Open Access pdf 10.1029/2026jd046590

Soil Physical Properties in Estimating the CO2 Emissions in Drained Peatland Forests, Tenhovirta et al., Journal of Geophysical Research Biogeosciences Open Access 10.1029/2026jg009736

Thermally driven CO2 adsorption/desorption and its effect on soil respiration, Abramova et al., Science Advances Open Access 10.1126/sciadv.aed9979

U.S. oil and gas methane emission intensity declined 2019–2024 with little indication of federal policy impact, Chen et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-026-04039-0

Using high frequency observations of δ13C-CH4 and δ2H-CH4 and uncertain regional isotopic signatures to estimate sources of UK methane emissions, Ramsden et al., Atmospheric chemistry and physics Open Access pdf 10.5194/acp-26-11421-2026

Warming Amplifies the Variability of Methane Emissions From a Coastal Wetland, Lewis et al., Journal of Geophysical Research Biogeosciences Open Access pdf 10.1029/2026jg009973

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago: Soil carbon and nitrogen cycling at the atmosphere–soil interface: Quantifying the responses of biocrust–soil interactions to global change, Global Change Biology, 10.1111/gcb.17519 27 cites.

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CO2 capture, sequestration science & engineering

Assessing the potential and cost of enhanced rock weathering in China, Wang et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-026-04136-0

Circular and athermal atmospheric CO2 capture by food waste-derived amyloid sorbents, Dong et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Open Access 10.1073/pnas.2535689123

Hysteresis of extreme precipitation in East Asia under various CO2 removal pathways, Lee et al., Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-026-78431-x

Mineral Carbonation of Mixed Industrial Residues for Enhanced CO2 Sequestration and Environmental Stabilization: The Role of Slag Composition and Industrial Symbiosis, Pietrobelli et al., Advanced Energy and Sustainability Research Open Access pdf 10.1002/aesr.70261

Strong-Acid Weathering in a Carbonate-Siliciclastic Cropland Diminishes Removal of CO2 From the Atmosphere Without Becoming a CO2 Source, Forgeng et al., Journal of Geophysical Research Biogeosciences Open Access pdf 10.1029/2025jg009418

Wettability and Interfacial Tension in Carbonate Rocks for CO2 Storage: A Critical Review of Trapping Mechanisms and Governing Factors, Suramairy et al., Greenhouse Gases Science and Technology 10.1002/ghg.70040

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago: Carbon storage in the built environment: a review, Environmental Research Infrastructure and Sustainability, 10.1088/2634-4505/ad139f 14 cites.

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Decarbonization

A socio-technical analysis of the natural hydrogen hype: Network dynamics and institutional expectation governance, Zini et al., Energy Research & Social Science Open Access pdf 10.1016/j.erss.2026.104997

Impact of climate change on the photovoltaic power potential in Sweden across 21st century, Ruan et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-026-04091-w

Modeling tensions and tradeoffs in community responses to large scale solar development in rural Georgia, Kurtz et al., Energy Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.enpol.2026.115660

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago: Exploring the cost and emissions impacts, feasibility and scalability of battery electric ships, Nature Energy, 10.1038/s41560-024-01655-y 73 cites.

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Aerosols

Effects of solar position and surface albedo on retrieved aerosol optical properties and radiative forcing effects, Ningombam et al., Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics 10.1016/j.jastp.2026.106991

Overestimation of Cloud Sensitivity in Orographic Clouds Over the Southern Tibetan Plateau Due To Neglected Dynamical Constraints, Wang et al., Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres 10.1029/2026jd046935

Climate change communications & cognition

From Grand Narratives to Riverbank Realities: How Local Experience Influences Perceptions of Climate Risk and Adaptation in Rural Australian Freshwater Tourism, Downey et al., Weather Climate and Society 10.1175/wcas-d-25-0167.1

Interactions of emotion and political orientation in predicting intentional climate action, Flesch et al., Environmental Sociology 10.1080/23251042.2026.2744713

Learning from young conservatives: Increasing pro-environmental behavior change and climate policy support in the United States, Caballero et al., Energy Research & Social Science Open Access 10.1016/j.erss.2026.105015

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago: The Greta Effect: Is there more public support for climate protesters who are young and female?, Environmental Science & Policy, 10.1016/j.envsci.2024.103924 4 cites.

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Agronomy, animal husbundry, food production & climate change

Compound climatic extreme events amplify food insecurity, Wang et al., Global Environmental Change Open Access 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2026.103248

Mapping CO2 fixation to two effective parameters: A framework toward data-informed species and model comparison, Stillits et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Open Access 10.1073/pnas.2609915123

Thermal Vulnerability of Reef Fish and Implications for Subsistence Fisheries Throughout the Caribbean, Cortese et al., Global Change Biology Open Access pdf 10.1111/gcb.71118

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago: Maize breeding for smaller tassels threatens yield under a warming climate, Nature Climate Change, 10.1038/s41558-024-02161-5 23 cites.

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Hydrology, hydrometeorology & climate change

Assessing Probable Maximum Precipitation in the Soummam Basin (Algeria) Using Bias-Corrected Climate Projections, Taguemount et al., International Journal of Climatology Open Access pdf 10.1002/joc.70626

Climate warming redistributes the seasonality of inland open-water evaporation, Farooq et al., Global and Planetary Change Open Access pdf 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2026.105750

Hydrological Extremes Increase Water-Resource Constraints Under Climate Change, Sun et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1029/2026gl122652

Hysteresis of extreme precipitation in East Asia under various CO2 removal pathways, Lee et al., Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-026-78431-x

Quantified impact of projected climate change on groundwater recharge and river discharge leveraging the use of open access geospatial data, Jimenez et al., Frontiers in Earth Science Open Access pdf 10.3389/feart.2026.1857327

Record-setting heavy precipitation occurrence in 2024, Thackeray et al., Science Advances Open Access 10.1126/sciadv.aeb1692

Regional Trends in Northern Hemisphere Summer Extratropical Cyclone Activity and Their Link to Precipitation and Temperature Trends, Baxter et al., Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres Open Access 10.1029/2026jd046609

Satellite altimetry reveals heterogeneity in global flood peak timing and its shifts, Zhou et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-026-04115-5

Shifting Patterns of Precipitation Extremes in the Southeast Atlantic Basin—Brazil: From Observed Trends to Future Projections, Oliveira-Santos et al., International Journal of Climatology Open Access pdf 10.1002/joc.70629

Structural Compactness of North Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Seeds in Historical and Projected Climates, Lu & Reed, Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2026gl124707

Uneven warming–moistening rates amplify atmospheric aridity differences between wet and dry regions, Jin et al., Global and Planetary Change 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2026.105757

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago: Assessment of Meteorological Drought in a Changing Environment: An Example in the Upper Yangtze River, Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres, 10.1029/2024jd041019 4 cites.

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Climate change economics

Beyond linear assumptions: neural network tracing of climate-driven financial contagion in firms, Niu et al., Frontiers in Environmental Science Open Access pdf 10.3389/fenvs.2026.1909195

Heterogeneous effects of climate change on real GDP per capita: evidence from selected MENA countries and Türkiye, Y?lmaz, Frontiers in Environmental Science Open Access pdf 10.3389/fenvs.2026.1930700

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago: A financial disaster in the making: Temperature shocks, climate change and savings, Energy Research & Social Science, 10.1016/j.erss.2024.103782 9 cites.

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Climate change mitigation public policy research

Citizens’ assemblies propose ambitious climate policy but impacts remain limited, Feldman et al., Cambridge Journal of Regions Economy and Society Open Access pdf 10.1093/cjres/rsaf032

Climate policies neglect risks posed by legacy landfills, Zhang et al., Science 10.1126/science.aem1978

Enhancing fairness in climate action through policy packages, Vandyck et al., Nature Climate Change Open Access 10.1038/s41558-026-02751-5

Firms’ renewable energy adoption and energy taxes: How institutional quality matters, Ruberto, Energy Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.enpol.2026.115631

The embeddedness of Emissions Trading Systems, Barlaup et al., Climate Policy 10.1080/14693062.2026.2743153

The politics of baselines: A political feasibility framework for energy and climate scenarios, Fornborg, Energy Research & Social Science Open Access pdf 10.1016/j.erss.2026.104981

Why support for net-zero technologies can be politically vulnerable: Evidence from Celtic Sea floating offshore wind, Gregory & Thies, Energy Research & Social Science Open Access 10.1016/j.erss.2026.105012

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago: Assessing the impacts of fertility and retirement policies on China’s carbon emissions, Nature Climate Change, 10.1038/s41558-024-02162-4 29 cites.

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Climate change adaptation & adaptation public policy research

Building adaptive capacity of US Gulf Coast city practitioners to extreme weather events, Wong-Parodi et al., PNAS Nexus Open Access pdf 10.1093/pnasnexus/pgag330

Crossing the behavioral threshold: social amplification and climate risk management in urban flood evacuation, Tanaka et al., Climate Risk Management Open Access 10.1016/j.crm.2026.100901

Cumulative impact of climate change and adaptation measures on Venice and its lagoon, Canu et al., Scientific Reports Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41598-026-73719-w

Evaluation of heat stress mitigation potentials of climate change adaptation measures in cities: Scenario analyses for technical- and nature-based solutions using 3D microclimate modelling, Eingrüber et al., Climate Risk Management Open Access pdf 10.1016/j.crm.2026.100894

Overcoming under-adaptive innovation and maladaptation in urban heat governance, Lao & Istrate, Climate Risk Management Open Access pdf 10.1016/j.crm.2026.100895

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago: Measuring the contribution of nature-based solutions beyond climate adaptation in cities, Global Environmental Change, 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2024.102939 25 cites.

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Climate change impacts on human health

Climate Resilience and Environmental Sustainability of Healthcare Facilities in a Rural District of Pakistan: A Mixed-Methods Assessment Using the WHO Framework, Nazir et al., Climate Resilience and Sustainability Open Access pdf 10.1002/cli2.70065

Climate-amplified wildland–urban interface disasters create persistent internal metal mixtures associated with pulmonary impairment, Maunakea et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Open Access 10.1073/pnas.2613208123

Compound Heatwaves and Health Inequality: A Nationwide Study on Emergency Admissions and Socioeconomic Vulnerability in South Korea, Kim et al., GeoHealth Open Access 10.1029/2026gh001920

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago: On the Stationarity of the Global Spatial Dependency of Heat Risk on Drought, Geophysical Research Letters, 10.1029/2024gl111117 6 cites.

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Climate change & geopolitics

Cross border consequences of responses to climate change: Risks and opportunities, Mason et al., Global Environmental Change Open Access 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2026.103245

The geopoliticization of Europe's energy transition: Geopolitical risk and selective transition adjustment across EU member states, Cong et al., Energy Policy 10.1016/j.enpol.2026.115663

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago: Weaponization of climate and environment crises: Risks, realities, and consequences, Environmental Science & Policy, 10.1016/j.envsci.2024.103928 12 cites.

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Other

Background Atmospheric CO2 Regulates the Local and Non-Local Climate Impacts of Amazon Deforestation, Lee et al., Earth s Future Open Access 10.1029/2025ef007636

Intensification of near-inertial currents in the Atlantic Ocean over the past two decades, Zheng et al., Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-026-78555-0

Springtime Soil Moisture Teleconnections Drive Summertime Warming in the Western United States, Zhang et al., Journal of Climate 10.1175/jcli-d-25-0459.1

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago: Global wildfire activity re-visited, Global Environmental Change, 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2024.102894 6 cites.

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Informed opinion, nudges & major initiatives

Climate change reshapes the global mercury cycle, Feinberg & Saiz-Lopez, Science 10.1126/science.aeh7034

Discovery as public infrastructure: Renewing the social contract for science, Carbajo et al., PNAS Nexus Open Access 10.1093/pnasnexus/pgag312

Uneven attention to climate tipping points, Wang et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Open Access 10.1073/pnas.2618666123

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago: The role of forestry sciences in combating climate change and advancing sustainable development goals, Frontiers in Forests and Global Change, 10.3389/ffgc.2024.1409667 27 cites.

Articles/Reports from Agencies and Non-Governmental Organizations Addressing Aspects of Climate Change

2026 Global Climate Investing Survey, CoreData Research, Robeco

The number of investors making climate change a strategic priority has increased slightly to 47%, rising further to 62% over the next two years. The tide is also turning in North America, where there is now growing support for climate investing, following a large backlash that began in the U.S. in 2023. Both mark a turning point after several years of declining commitments, as governments globally made net zero a lower priority – and commitment that comes back after a cycle like that is of a different quality from commitment that never had to. 75% believe that war in the Middle East, and the disruption it is causing to oil and gas markets, will moderately or significantly accelerate the transition to renewable energy. 63% think the increasing adoption of AI will have a positive effect on accelerating the development of sustainable infrastructure. 64% say the slowdown in government support for net-zero goals has not affected their commitment to net zero. 63% expect physical climate risks to have a moderate or significant effect on their organization’s strategic asset allocation over the next five years.

10 New Insights in Climate Science 2026/2027, Future Earth, The Earth League, and the World Climate Research Programme, Future Earth, The Earth League, and the World Climate Research Programme

Ocean heat content keeps climbing as Earth’s energy imbalance grows. Sea level rise in a warming world: acceleration, ice mass loss, and long-term commitment. Water gaps widen as continental drying accelerates. A larger overshoot of 1.5°C increases the risk of irreversible impacts, forces greater reliance on carbon dioxide (CO?) removal, and narrows adaptation options. Bundled interventions for food system transformation can deliver major gains for human health and planetary stability. The social cost of carbon has been severely underestimated. Advances in attribution science demonstrate individual emitters’ climate effects. Climate clubs can limit carbon leakage, but fairness shapes their feasibility and effectiveness. Organized obstruction prevents effective climate policy through denial, delay, dilution and distraction. A just energy transition is threatened by geopolitical risks and fragmentation.

Offshore wind a safe bet for East Asia’s future, Lu et al., Ember

The share of offshore wind in the total renewable energy pipeline across Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan is 84%, compared to the global average of just 21%, totaling 82 GW. East Asia represents 8% of the global offshore wind pipeline, and 2026 policy reforms across the three markets signal the region's growth opportunity. Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan aim to scale up offshore wind to more than 30 GW across the region by 2030. Market readiness is needed now to meet these goals.

Western Seams Analysis, Aurora Energy Research, Environmental Defense Fund and the Natural Resources Defense Council

Modeling shows that a single, West-wide market produces the lowest total system cost because no market boundaries means a single operator can maximize efficient dispatch at lowest-cost energy resources across the entire region. Best-in-class seams management in a multi-market West can unlock up to $840 million in annual cost savings that would be lost in uncoordinated, poorly-managed seams agreements.

The AI Gas Rush: Risks and Implications of “Bring Your Own Power”, Bangsund et al., Earthjustice

The race to scale artificial intelligence is driving an unprecedented rush to build power plants solely to power data centers that are predominantly gas-powered. These power plants are evading regulations, harming communities and the climate, and are not a solution to rising energy bills. The authors explore and analyzes this trend. Policymakers across the nation are incentivizing or requiring Bring-Your-Own-Power (BYOP) in an attempt to address energy bill impacts from new AI data centers. But AI data center developers are turning to BYOP to gain access to power as quickly as possible (“speed-to-power”) — not to solve the energy bill impacts of AI. The authors find potential ratepayer benefits are not guaranteed, while harms of the massive gas BYOP buildout have been inadequately addressed.

Behind the Bill: What’s Driving Increases in Electricity Costs in Maine?, Heather Sanborn, Office of the Public Advocate (Maine)

A typical Central Maine Power (CMP) household’s monthly bill rose from about $91 in October 2020 to about $157 in October 2026, an increase of $66 (72%). The total price went from 16.6 to 28.6 cents per kilowatt-hour. No single cause explains it. Three parts of the bill account for about $57 of the $66; energy supply (+$30), driven mainly by New England natural gas prices; local distribution (+$18), with storm costs alone adding $12; transmission (+$9), driven by infrastructure replacement and high federally set profits. Stranded costs, mostly from Maine’s community solar program, added about $9. Focusing on that issue alone misses about $57 of the $66 increase. About $27 of the total would be expected from general inflation.

Manufacturing Petropopulism: Exposing the secretive network of front groups shilling for Big Oil in Canada, Abde Amr and Keith Stewart, Greenpeace

The authors' investigation has identified a shadowy and coordinated network of pro–fossil fuel front groups, companies, think tanks, and charities that claim to have reached over one hundred million people. Based on materials and data from the entities involved, this investigation reveals influence efforts by the oil-linked Energy in Action (EIA) network, whose members are receiving funding and support from the Canadian Energy Prosperity (CEP) group, aiming to shape the energy conversation in Canada. Over 30 entities, targeting six different sectors, have been identified as part of a coordinated network, operating under the EIA umbrella and supported by CEP to manufacture support for the oil and gas industry and advance its' narratives. EIA appears to be linked to the Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers (CAPP), with many network entities receiving direct funding from the oil and gas sector. The network spreads its' influence across diverse sectors, including technology, grassroots advocacy, and industry trade associations, targeting specific groups including women, youth, students, and Indigenous communities among others.

Powering Rural Prosperity: The Local Economic Impact of Utility-Scale Wind and Solar Developments, Ohler et al., University of Missouri

A growing literature documents a relationship between renewable energy development and local economic outcomes. Yet, important gaps remain in understanding how these effects manifest in rural economies, across technologies, and within specific sectors. Using county-level data on U.S. energy installations between 2001-2023, the authors examine how renewable energy adoption shapes sector-specific economic activity, focusing on GDP, employment, and wages in rural counties. They extend prior work in three ways. First, they focus explicitly on rural outcomes, where utility-scale renewable development is concentrated but where economic structures may limit local benefits. Second, they incorporate solar adoption alongside wind, enabling a comparison of technology-specific impacts. Third, they move beyond aggregate measures to conduct a sectoral analysis, identifying how effects vary across industries. Wind development is associated with significant GDP gains concentrated in the utilities sector, while solar development is associated with modest wage and employment gains driven largely by utilities and construction. For very large utility-scale solar, e.g. 5MW or 20MW, agriculture, construction, and utility GDP increase with solar adoption. Neither technology is associated with detectable declines in agricultural GDP, employment, or wages, providing little evidence of substantial disruption to agricultural production or related labor markets. These findings provide a more nuanced understanding of the local economic consequences of the energy transition and highlight the importance of technology type and sectoral composition in shaping rural development outcomes.

Data Center Policy in Ohio: A Cost-Benefit Analysis, Scioto Analysis

Data centers have had a major impact on Ohio's economy. Between 2013 and 2026, we estimate that Ohio data centers produced a net social benefit of $62 billion in the state. Data centers produced $77 billion in total benefits, mostly from employment: they created about 96,000 new jobs and added $75 billion in wages. They also produced $15 billion in total costs, mostly from emissions and higher utility prices. When data centers draw power from the statewide grid, electricity bills rise for Ohio ratepayers. If current policy stays the same, the authors estimate that higher electricity prices will cost Ohio ratepayers $16 billion between 2027 and 2034. As energy use rises, emissions rise as well, and the largest costs come from air pollutants that harm local public health, including nitrogen oxide, sulfur dioxide, and particulate matter 2.5. Under the status quo, these pollutants account for about $41 billion of the $62 billion in total costs between 2027 and 2034, compared to $220 million from carbon, since the authors count only Ohio's share of the global cost of carbon. The data center industry is beginning to respond to some of these issues. Every company planning new data centers in Ohio has committed to closed-loop cooling, which uses zero excess water, but more electricity. Additionally, 19% of planned data center capacity in Ohio is set to use behind-the-meter generation, meaning companies will build their own power plants instead of relying on the statewide grid. This keeps new data centers from raising electricity prices for Ohio ratepayers and it is cleaner for most pollutants.

Spinning Renewable Success Into a Climate Conspiracy: Co-opting the climate science story of RCP8.5, Climate Action Against Disinformation

Fossil fuels cause climate change, and replacing them with renewables will keep our climate safe for human civilization and natural ecosystems. The progress we made towards a cleaner future means that the worst possible fossil fueled warming gets less and less likely. Thanks to the massive growth in renewables, we are finally winning the climate fight- so why are some people claiming exactly the opposite, that it was a hoax all along? Over the years, “Representative Concentration Pathways”, or RCP scenarios have been refined, as renewable energy has gained momentum around the world, pushing the planet away from the most-heavily-fossil-fueled future that represented the worst-case scenario of a climate crisis, and into slightly safer territory. But this good news, tempered as it is by the incredible amount of work remaining to fully decarbonize, is highly technical, scientific, and detailed. That is not, however, how it was portrayed in the fossil fueled disinformation ecosystem, that instead interpreted it as evidence confirming a climate conspiracy theory.

451,000 at Risk, Where Action Can Save Lives During the Super El Niño, Greenstone et al., Climate Impact Lab, University of Chicago

The authors project that 451,000 lives will be lost due to heat the first nine months (June-February) of El Niño, compared to a normal year. This is about 65 times larger than the 6,800 people believed to be dead or missing from the recent Nepal flash flood. In just the next 6 months, this includes 239,000 ± 11,000 deaths across the globe. With current forecasts suggesting El Niño will remain in place through spring 2027, all of these numbers likely will grow even higher, particularly as effects such as higher-than-average temperatures and heat-related deaths will linger into June and July.

No Time to Recover: Compounding Crises, Depleted Fiscal Buffers, and What It Means for Developing Economies, Molina et al., United Nations Development Program

Seven months into the Middle East crisis, developing countries face compounding pressures: renewed energy price surges following the July ceasefire breakdown, a potentially record El Niño, and global benchmark interest rates at multi-decade highs. Governments have cushioned energy price increases at substantial fiscal cost, with global explicit fossil fuel subsidies potentially exceeding $1 trillion this year. Yet containment is becoming unsustainable. Across 130 countries, gasoline and diesel prices have risen by averages of 26 and 38 percent since the conflict began, with increases widening in nearly two-thirds of countries between June and September. Higher prices have contributed to protests and unrest. The authors estimate that full transmission of the energy and food price shock could push an additional 130 million people below $6.85 a day, 121 million below $3.65, and 66 million below $2.15, overwhelmingly in developing countries. These figures represent potential exposure, not observed poverty increases. Fully compensating households would cost approximately 1.1 percent of developing-country GDP; protecting only those below $6.85 would cost around 0.3 percent. However, fiscal constraints and rising debt service increasingly divert resources from long-term development.

Driven by Dirty Steel: The Pollution Behind Europe's Automotive Supply Chain, Mighty Earth

The automakers analyzed in this report have set ambitious carbon-neutrality targets, yet their continued reliance on coal-based steel from ArcelorMittal, Tata Steel, and Acciaierie d’Italia undermines these commitments and perpetuates significant environmental and public-health harms. If European automakers pushed for change in European steel manufacturing, these three steel producers would be required to adjust. Without that pressure, as the authors demonstrate, these companies will remain heavily invested in aging blast furnace operations and fossil gas that generate high levels of greenhouse gases and toxic pollutants, causing elevated rates of respiratory illness, premature death, and degraded air and water quality in surrounding communities.

How Spending for Flood Adaptations Affects the Federal Budget, Chad Shirley, Congressional Budget Office

Flooding is among the costliest natural disasters in the United States. Over the next few decades, damage from flooding is expected to worsen because of continued coastal development and changes in the climate. The authors examine how spending for flood adaptations today might affect the federal government’s potential costs for disaster relief later, as well as what households are likely to pay for flood insurance that is subsidized by the federal government.

Beyond the Funding Gap. A Global Assessment of the Loss of USAID's Environment and Climate Programming, Monica Bansal and Hadas Kushnir, One Earth Partners

The authors document the on-the-ground consequences of the 2025 U.S. foreign assistance withdrawal on global environmental programming and identifies vulnerabilities in the funding ecosystem left behind. They begin by establishing the baseline: the distinctive role the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) played in the environmental sector, including both its strengths and structural flaws. They then presents ten major findings on the effects of the withdrawal across five focus countries, including direct impacts to policy, people, and the environment; institutional and economic impacts; and diplomatic and geopolitical effects. They close with recommendations for funders and for U.S. foreign assistance on how to stabilize and rebuild momentum going forward. The information in the report comes from on-the-ground sources and media articles.

Climate adaptation’s delivery gap: Turning national plans into action, Ellena et al., Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change

The challenge is no longer recognizing the need for adaptation, but rather delivering it at scale. Adaptation gaps are already evident and are projected to widen according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, whereas the U.N. Environment Program estimates that annual adaptation finance needs in developing countries could reach US$310-365 billion by 2035, compared with roughly US$26 billion in international public finance in 2023. Two recent initiatives address this bottleneck directly including the Adaptation Accelerator Hub (AAH) and the National Adaptation Plan Implementation Alliance (NIA). The authors explains how these two initiatives are complementary rather than in competition. These two initiatives are part of a single adaptation delivery chain that runs from national priorities to measurable results on the ground. The AAH operates at the country end of that chain - the “missing middle piece” between strategies and financing decisions, whereas the NIA operates at the system end, aligning the actors and the finance that surround it. Their value depends on keeping that division of roles and actions explicit and testable. The message for the next phase of cooperation is that the frontier is shifting from planning alone toward parallel delivery, even as many countries are still completing their National Adaptation Plan. About New Research

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Categories: I. Climate Science

The Fine Print I:

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The Fine Print II:

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