Skeptical Science

Open access notables

Wild, scenic, and toxic: Recent degradation of an iconic Arctic watershed with permafrost thaw, Sullivan et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Science

The streams of Alaska’s Brooks Range lie within a vast (~14M ha) tract of protected wilderness and have long supported both resident and anadromous fish. However, dozens of historically clear streams have recently turned orange and turbid. Thawing permafrost is thought to have exposed sulfide minerals to weathering, delivering iron and other potentially toxic metals to aquatic ecosystems. Here, we report stream water metal concentrations throughout the federally designated Wild and Scenic Salmon River watershed and compare them with United States Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) chronic (4-d) exposure thresholds for toxicity to aquatic life. The main stem of the Salmon had elevated SO42− concentrations and elevated SO42−: Ca relative to a predisturbance baseline for most of its length, consistent with increased sulfide mineral weathering. Most of the tributaries also had elevated SO42− concentrations and elevated SO42−: Ca, especially those in the upper watershed. The Salmon River mainstem consistently exceeded EPA chronic exposure thresholds for total recoverable iron, total recoverable aluminum, and dissolved cadmium from its first major tributary to its mouth. Nine of ten major tributaries that we sampled exceeded EPA thresholds for at least one metal on at least one of three sampling dates. Our findings indicate that habitat quality for resident and anadromous fish has been severely degraded in the Salmon River watershed. Loss of important spawning habitat in the Salmon and many other streams in the region might help explain a recent crash in chum salmon returns, which local communities depend upon for commercial and subsistence harvest.

Speleothem evidence for Late Miocene extreme Arctic amplification – an analogue for near-future anthropogenic climate change?, Umbo et al., Climate of the Past

Our estimate of > 18 °C of Arctic warming supports the wider consensus of a warmer-than-present Miocene and provides a rare palaeo-analogue for future Arctic amplification under high-emissions scenarios. The reconstructed increase in mean surface temperature far exceeds temperatures projected in fully coupled global climate models, even under extreme-emissions scenarios. Given that climate models have consistently underestimated the extent of recent Arctic amplification, our proxy data suggest Arctic warming may exceed current projections.

Long-term decline in montane insects under warming summers, Sockman, Ecology

Widespread declines in the abundance of insects portend ill-fated futures for their host ecosystems, all of which require their services to function. For many such reports, human activities have directly altered the land or water of these ecosystems, raising questions about how insects in less impacted environments are faring. I quantified the abundance of flying insects during 15 seasons spanning 2004–2024 on a relatively unscathed, subalpine meadow in Colorado, where weather data have been recorded for 38 years. I discovered that insect abundance declined an average of 6.6% annually, yielding a 72.4% decline over this 20-year period. According to model selection following information theoretic analysis of 59 combinations of weather-related factors, a seasonal increase in insect abundance changed to a seasonal decline as the previous summer's temperatures increased. This resulted in a long-term decline associated with increasing summer temperatures, particularly daily lows, which have increased 0.8°C per decade. However, other factors, such as ecological succession and atmospheric elevation in nitrogen and carbon, are also plausible drivers. In a relatively pristine ecosystem, insects are declining precipitously, auguring poorly for this and other such ecosystems that depend on insects in food webs and for pollination, pest control, and nutrient cycling.

Addressing methane emission feedbacks from global wetlands, Ury et al., Nature Sustainability

Earth-system feedback loops that exacerbate climate warming cause concern for both climate accounting and progress towards meeting international climate agreements. Methane emissions from wetlands are on the rise owing to climate change—a large and difficult-to-abate source of greenhouse gas that may be considered indirectly anthropogenic. Here we illustrate the power of emissions reduction from any sector for slowing the progress of earth-system feedbacks.

From this week's government/NGO section:

About half of Americans understand that global warming is increasing homeowners insurance costs, Ettinger et al., Yale University and George Mason University

A large majority of Americans (82%) say the cost of homeowners insurance is increasing, including about two-thirds (66%) who say it is increasing “a lot.” A majority of Americans (69%) think disasters such as hurricanes, floods, and wildfires contribute to increasing homeowners insurance costs, including nearly half (47%) who say such disasters contribute “a lot.” About half of Americans (48%) think global warming contributes to increasing homeowners insurance costs. More Democrats than Republicans say that global warming contributes to the increasing cost of homeowners insurance. Although many Americans understand that global warming contributes to rising homeowners insurance costs, more attribute the cost increases to corporate profits, disasters (such as hurricanes, floods, and wildfires), inflation, and rising property values. Democrats and Republicans hold similar views about these other factors’ roles in increasing insurance costs.

Reporting extreme weather and climate change. A Guide for Journalists, Ben Clarke and Friederike Otto, World Weather Attribution

Extreme weather events, such as heatwaves, heavy rainfall, storms and droughts, are becoming more frequent and stronger in many parts of the world as a result of human-caused climate change. However, not all events are becoming more likely, and changes are uneven across the world. These events often have widespread effects on society, including the loss of crops and farmland, destruction of property, severe economic disruption and loss of life. Following an extreme event with severe impacts, a great deal of public interest is generated in its causes. Increasingly, the dominant question is: “Was this event caused by climate change?” This guide is intended to help journalists navigate this question. 74 articles in 46 journals by 443 contributing authors

Physical science of climate change, effects

Changes in atmospheric circulation amplify extreme snowfall fueled by Arctic sea ice loss over high-latitude land, Liu et al., Weather and Climate Extremes Open Access 10.1016/j.wace.2025.100802

Climate-sensitive chemical weathering feedbacks in a Glacial River Basin, Northeast Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, Li et al., Global and Planetary Change 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2025.105053

Enhanced West Antarctic ice loss triggered by polynya response to meridional winds, O'Connor et al., 10.5194/egusphere-egu25-13728

Heatwaves on the Rise: The Role of El Niño-Southern Oscillation and Local Water-Energy Exchanges in Shaping Global Patterns, Zhang et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres Open Access 10.1029/2024jd042446

Tropical Pacific Warming Patterns Influence Future Hydroclimate Shifts and Extremes in the Americas, Heede et al., Earth's Future Open Access 10.1029/2025ef006014

Observations of climate change, effects

Ice core evidence of rapid climate and environmental changes on the Tibetan plateau, Zhang & Kang, Atmospheric Environment Open Access 10.1016/j.atmosenv.2025.121483

Increasing Vulnerability of Urban Climate to Recent Climate Change, Zahradní?ek et al., International Journal of Climatology Open Access 10.1002/joc.70051

Systematic attribution of heatwaves to the emissions of carbon majors, Quilcaille et al., (preprint)  Open Access pdf 10.21203/rs.3.rs-4796598/v1

Wild, scenic, and toxic: Recent degradation of an iconic Arctic watershed with permafrost thaw, Sullivan et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Open Access 10.1073/pnas.2425644122

Instrumentation & observational methods of climate change, effects

Early warning skill, extrapolation and tipping for accelerating cascades, Ashwin et al., Proceedings of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences Open Access 10.1098/rspa.2025.0405

European extreme events climate index (E3CI): a climate service for weather induced hazard, Giugliano et al., Frontiers in Climate Open Access 10.3389/fclim.2025.1628534

What is climate change doing in the Himalaya? Thirty years of the Pyramid Meteorological Network (Nepal), Salerno et al., Open Access 10.5194/essd-2024-591

Modeling, simulation & projection of climate change, effects

Controls on Fjord Temperature Throughout Greenland in a Reduced-Physics Model, Mas e Braga et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2025gl116902

Far-future climate projection of the Adriatic marine heatwaves: a kilometre-scale experiment under extreme warming, Denamiel, Open Access 10.5194/egusphere-2025-1363

Future Summertime Marine Heatwaves in the Indian Ocean in Response to Enhanced Variability of the Western North Pacific Subtropical High Under Warming Climate, Sandaruwan et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans 10.1029/2025jc022626

Advancement of climate & climate effects modeling, simulation & projection

An improved and extended parameterization of the CO2 15 µm cooling in the middle and upper atmosphere (CO2&cool&fort-1.0), López-Puertas et al., Geoscientific Model Development Open Access 10.5194/gmd-17-4401-2024

Cryosphere & climate change

Beyond carbon: Multi-scale thermal and hydrological feedback of permafrost on the Tibetan Plateau, Xiao et al., Earth 10.1016/j.earscirev.2025.105248

Enhanced West Antarctic ice loss triggered by polynya response to meridional winds, O'Connor et al., 10.5194/egusphere-egu25-13728

Ongoing firn warming at Eclipse Icefield, Yukon, indicates potential widespread meltwater percolation and retention in firn pack across the St. Elias Range, Kindstedt et al., Open Access 10.5194/egusphere-2024-3807

Southern Ocean sea-ice leads: first insights into regional lead patterns, seasonality, and trends, 2003–2023, Dubey et al., The Cryosphere Open Access 10.5194/tc-19-3535-2025

Variabilities in climate sensitivities and mass balance of four High Mountain Asian glaciers, Mukherjee et al., Global and Planetary Change 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2025.105044

Wild, scenic, and toxic: Recent degradation of an iconic Arctic watershed with permafrost thaw, Sullivan et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Open Access 10.1073/pnas.2425644122

Paleoclimate & paleogeochemistry

Pulsed biogenic methane emissions coupled with episodic warming during the Toarcian Oceanic Anoxic Event, Qiu et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Open Access 10.1073/pnas.2423598122

Speleothem evidence for Late Miocene extreme Arctic amplification – an analogue for near-future anthropogenic climate change?, Umbo et al., Climate of the Past Open Access 10.5194/cp-21-1533-2025

Biology & climate change, related geochemistry

Bark beetles as microclimate engineers – thermal characteristics of infested spruce trees at the canopy surface and below the canopy, Greiser et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology Open Access 10.1016/j.agrformet.2025.110796

Building heat-resilient Caribbean reefs: integrating thermal thresholds and coral colonies selection in restoration, Blanco Pimentel et al., PeerJ Open Access 10.7717/peerj.19987

Designing Conservation Networks to Ensure Connectivity in a Changing Climate: Application to Spanish Forests, Goicolea et al., Diversity and Distributions Open Access 10.1111/ddi.70068

Community-based research supports more just and equitable industrial decarbonization, Smith et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-025-63569-x

The Global Decarbonisation Potential of Synthetic Biology, Wiskich & Speight, Global Change Biology 10.1111/gcb.70478

Forestlines in Italian mountains are shifting upward: detection and monitoring using satellite time series, Baglioni et al., Biogeosciences Open Access pdf 10.5194/bg-22-4349-2025

Long-term decline in montane insects under warming summers, Sockman, Ecology Open Access pdf 10.1002/ecy.70187

Ocean acidification impairs growth and induces oxidative stress in the macroalgae Ulva fasciata and Petalonia fascia, de Freitas et al., Marine Environmental Research 10.1016/j.marenvres.2025.107429

Range Shift and Climatic Refugia for Alpine Lichens Under Climate Change, Francesconi et al., Diversity and Distributions Open Access 10.1111/ddi.70079

The Diverse Reactions of Butterflies and Zygaenids (Lepidoptera) to Climate Change—A Large Scale, Multi-Species Study, Birch et al., Global Ecology and Biogeography Open Access 10.1111/geb.70112

The Optimal Temperature of Ecosystem Respiration Homogenizes Under Global Warming, Niu et al., 10.21203/rs.3.rs-5577552/v1

Thermal responses of feeding rates differ across co-occurring predator species, Neale & Rudolf, Ecology 10.1002/ecy.70184

Understanding Unanticipated Range Shifts: Biotic Interactions as Key Mediators in a Changing Climate, Wang et al., Global Change Biology 10.1111/gcb.70470

GHG sources & sinks, flux, related geochemistry

Activation Energy of Organic Matter Decomposition in Soil and Consequences of Global Warming, Filimonenko & Kuzyakov, Global Change Biology Open Access 10.1111/gcb.70472

Addressing methane emission feedbacks from global wetlands, Ury et al., Nature Sustainability Open Access 10.1038/s41893-025-01625-6

Enrichment of metastable iron minerals in global coastal wetlands, Ma et al., Nature Geoscience 10.1038/s41561-025-01764-7

Island Size Modulates the Effects of Multiple Global Change Factors on Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Microbial Communities, Shah et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences 10.1029/2025jg009017

Pulsed biogenic methane emissions coupled with episodic warming during the Toarcian Oceanic Anoxic Event, Qiu et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Open Access 10.1073/pnas.2423598122

Sinking carbon sinks, WANG et al., Applied Ecology and Environmental Research Open Access 10.15666/aeer/2302_34813490

Soil CO2 and CH4 effluxes in powerline rights-of-way and their adjacent forests, Harel et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology Open Access 10.1016/j.agrformet.2025.110801

Spatial and temporal variations of gross primary production simulated by land surface model BCC&AVIM2.0, Li et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2023.02.001

CO2 capture, sequestration science & engineering

Public preferences for local carbon capture and utilization implementation: A French-German comparison, Schomakers et al., Energy Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.enpol.2025.114781

Decarbonization

Community-based research supports more just and equitable industrial decarbonization, Smith et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-025-63569-x

The Global Decarbonisation Potential of Synthetic Biology, Wiskich & Speight, Global Change Biology 10.1111/gcb.70478

Geoengineering climate

Divergent impacts of climate interventions on China’s north-south water divide, Zhang et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-025-02708-0

Climate change communications & cognition

Adjust the thermostat and eat more plants? Comparing energy and climate knowledge amongst botanical garden members, Drummond Otten et al., Energy Research & Social Science Open Access 10.1016/j.erss.2025.104276

Evidence for motivated control? Climate change related distress is positively associated with domain-specific efficacy beliefs and climate action, Hanss et al., Journal of Environmental Psychology Open Access 10.1016/j.jenvp.2025.102695

Limited Impact of Interventions for Climate Belief: A Systematic Review Assessing Risk of Bias, de Oliveira Cardoso et al., Trends in Psychology 10.1007/s43076-025-00485-5

Reply to Loh and Ren: Motivating action among climate change believers, Sinclair et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Open Access 10.1073/pnas.2515426122

Weathering the storm: youth vulnerability and resilience during the climate crisis, Pollock & Kantorski, npj Climate Action Open Access 10.1038/s44168-025-00288-5

Agronomy, animal husbundry, food production & climate change

Compound drought-heatwave events accelerate the potential risk on rice yield over Southeast Asia, Wu et al., Atmospheric Research 10.1016/j.atmosres.2025.108410

CROMES v1.0: a flexible CROp Model Emulator Suite for climate impact assessment, Folberth et al., Open Access 10.5194/egusphere-2025-862

Increasing Accumulated Temperature Pushed the Maize Planting Limit Northwards: Phenomenon Analysis and Coping Strategy, Huang & Liu, Earth's Future Open Access 10.1029/2025ef005937

Massive carbon inputs from fish farming reduce carbon sequestration capacity in a macroalgae mariculture area, Yang et al., Marine Environmental Research 10.1016/j.marenvres.2025.107515

Modeling biochar effects on soil organic carbon on croplands in a microbial decomposition model (MIMICS-BC&v1.0), Han et al., Geoscientific Model Development Open Access 10.5194/gmd-17-4871-2024

Reduced Crop Yield Stability Is More Likely to Be Associated With Heat Than With Moisture Extremes in the US Midwest, Liu et al., Earth's Future Open Access 10.1029/2024ef005172

Hydrology, hydrometeorology & climate change

Changes in atmospheric circulation amplify extreme snowfall fueled by Arctic sea ice loss over high-latitude land, Liu et al., Weather and Climate Extremes Open Access 10.1016/j.wace.2025.100802

Ice core evidence of rapid climate and environmental changes on the Tibetan plateau, Zhang & Kang, Atmospheric Environment Open Access 10.1016/j.atmosenv.2025.121483

Increasing Vulnerability of Urban Climate to Recent Climate Change, Zahradní?ek et al., International Journal of Climatology Open Access 10.1002/joc.70051

Systematic attribution of heatwaves to the emissions of carbon majors, Quilcaille et al., (preprint)  Open Access pdf 10.21203/rs.3.rs-4796598/v1

Wild, scenic, and toxic: Recent degradation of an iconic Arctic watershed with permafrost thaw, Sullivan et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Open Access 10.1073/pnas.2425644122

Climate change economics

Green jobs and just transition: Employment implications of Europe's Net Zero pathway, Emmerling et al., Energy Research & Social Science Open Access 10.1016/j.erss.2025.104292

The drag effect of carbon emissions on China’s economic growth under 2030 carbon emission reduction target, Xu et al., Frontiers in Environmental Science Open Access pdf 10.3389/fenvs.2025.1651189

Climate change mitigation public policy research

Application of artificial intelligence and machine learning with international guidelines for greenhouse gas reduction in wastewater treatment, Kothale & Sadgir, International Journal of Environmental Science and Technology 10.1007/s13762-025-06651-7

Climate policy in an era of disruption: the impact of COVID-19 and the war in Ukraine on the United States, Russia, Canada and the European Union, Harrison & Sundstrom, Environmental Politics 10.1080/09644016.2025.2554446

Exploring modes of third-party market cooperation in energy projects: A strategic approach to addressing climate change, Zhao & Peng, Energy Policy 10.1016/j.enpol.2025.114779

First Nations at the forefront: The changing landscape of clean energy agreements in Australia, O'Neill & Thorburn, Energy Research & Social Science Open Access 10.1016/j.erss.2025.104183

From climate crisis to energy crisis: foster public support for renewable energy transition through framing, Chen et al., Environmental Politics 10.1080/09644016.2025.2543622

The negligible role of carbon offsetting in corporate climate strategies, Stolz & Probst, Open Access pdf 10.21203/rs.3.rs-5355499/v1

Climate change adaptation & adaptation public policy research

Coupling human development and adaptation through enhancing adaptive capacity and equity in climate change adaptation projects: Insights from practitioners in Ghana, Kenya, and South Africa, Shackleton et al., PLOS Climate Open Access 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000697

Exploring the use of adaptation tipping points: A systematic review of definitions, characteristics and applications, Paarlberg et al., Environmental Science & Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.envsci.2025.104211

Perspectives on climate change and adaptation in Fijian villages contemplating relocation, Yoshida et al., Frontiers in Climate Open Access 10.3389/fclim.2025.1579299

Unintended consequences: The erosion of traditional collective action and social capital by externally imposed climate adaptation programs, Acharya, Environmental Science & Policy 10.1016/j.envsci.2025.104167

Urban density and pedestrian wind comfort in hot-arid climates: Insights for climate-resilient city planning, Najian & Goudarzi Goudarzi, Energy for Sustainable Development 10.1016/j.esd.2025.101776

Climate change impacts on human health

Rising temperatures increase added sugar intake disproportionately in disadvantaged groups in the USA, He et al., Nature Climate Change Open Access 10.1038/s41558-025-02398-8

Other

Climate obstruction in Brazil under the Bolsonaro administration: building empirical and conceptual blocks, Milani et al., Climate and Development 10.1080/17565529.2025.2551952

Unprecedented suppression of Panama’s Pacific upwelling in 2025, O’Dea et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Open Access 10.1073/pnas.2512056122

Informed opinion, nudges & major initiatives

Community-based research supports more just and equitable industrial decarbonization, Smith et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-025-63569-x

Sinking carbon sinks, WANG et al., Applied Ecology and Environmental Research Open Access 10.15666/aeer/2302_34813490

The energy trilemma COP-out: accessibility is under-reported in international English-language media coverage of United Nations Climate Change Conferences, Roberts et al., Energy Research & Social Science Open Access 10.1016/j.erss.2025.104275

Articles/Reports from Agencies and Non-Governmental Organizations Addressing Aspects of Climate Change

2025 Realtor.com Housing and Climate Risk Report, Jiayi Xu, Realtorcom

Insurance costs weigh most heavily on lower-value, high-risk markets—particularly in states such as Louisiana and Florida. In 2025, approximately 6.1% of homes in the United States, valued at nearly $3.4 trillion, face severe or extreme risk of flood damage. Flood risks are largely underestimated: About 2 million homes, valued at nearly $1 trillion, could face significant flood risk without homeowners being aware because they are not located in FEMA Special Flood Hazard Areas (SFHAs), often called high-risk flood zones. The low take-up rates of government-backed insurance (the National Flood Insurance Program) suggest that the risk is even overlooked in high-risk FEMA zones. In 2025, approximately 18.3% of homes in the United States, valued at nearly $8 trillion, face severe or extreme risk of hurricane wind damage. In 2025, approximately 5.6% of homes (worth $3.2 trillion) in the United States face severe or extreme risk of fire damage, and nearly 39% of these high-risk homes (worth $1.8 trillion) are in California.

A Climate First Foreign Policy for Australia, The Australian Security Leaders Climate Group

Australia needs a contemporary framing of security that places the biggest threat to our future — climate disruption — at the center of defense and foreign policy. A climate-first policy would would adopt an emergency response, incorporating commitment to deep cooperation with nations that prioritize climate disruption risks, with climate-focused agreements on tax, trade, technology, finance, equity and the like; diplomatic leadership in high-ambition alliances, such as agreements: to phase out fossil fuel subsidies and international financing; to phase out the fossil fuel economy; and for a regional economic climate mobilization; understanding of the risks with mandated and regular climate-related security risk assessments, with outcomes shared within Australia and with neighbors; full integration of climate risk into defense and security planning, humanitarian response, and conflict prevention efforts and support for vulnerable and frontline nations, increased climate finance and leadership in the establishment of international legal frameworks to address climate displacement and migration.

Improving public participation for climate action and resilient democracy in the European Union, Accogli et al., Retool

Meaningful public participation is a powerful means to strengthen climate action and democratic governance as it fosters policy effectiveness, legitimacy, and public support for policymaking. Current turbulent political times underscore the need to harness the full potential of public participation. A wide range of mechanisms for public participation in EU decision-making exist at both the EU and Member-State levels. However, these mechanisms are characterized by important gaps and shortcomings, undermining their potential to provide meaningful and high-quality public participation. The identified mechanisms face key challenges including imbalanced participation, implementation gaps, limited impact and transparency, low public visibility, and lack of deliberative spaces across governance levels. The authors propose seven pragmatic action points to improve the quality and impact of public participation mechanisms for EU climate governance. These are aligned with the European Commission's strategic priorities, particularly the goal of strengthening democracy.

Climate Related Financial Risk Disclosures: Draft Checklist, California Air Resources Board

The Climate Related Financial Risk Disclosure Program applies to U.S. companies that do business in California with annual revenues in excess of $500 million. Beginning on January 1, 2026, these reporting entities must biennially prepare and publicly disclose a report on their climate-related financial risk and the measures adopted to reduce and adapt to climate-related financial risk.

Reporting extreme weather and climate change. A Guide for Journalists, Ben Clarke and Friederike Otto, World Weather Attribution

Extreme weather events, such as heatwaves, heavy rainfall, storms and droughts, are becoming more frequent and stronger in many parts of the world as a result of human-caused climate change. However, not all events are becoming more likely, and changes are uneven across the world. These events often have widespread effects on society, including the loss of crops and farmland, destruction of property, severe economic disruption and loss of life. Following an extreme event with severe impacts, a great deal of public interest is generated in its causes. Increasingly, the dominant question is: “Was this event caused by climate change?” This guide is intended to help journalists navigate this question.

Mining and Money: Financial Faultlines in the Energy Transition, Forests & Finance

The authors found that top financial institutions, including JP Morgan Chase, Bank of America and BlackRock, support mining companies linked to deforestation, land-grabs, contamination and Indigenous rights violations. According to the authors, from 2016-24, major banks provided $493 billion in loans and underwriting to mining companies, including Glencore, Rio Tinto and Vale. As of June 2025, investors held $289 billion in bonds and shares of 111 transition mineral companies. The authors focus on financing for companies mining critical minerals used in the global energy transition, including lithium, nickel, graphite and cobalt. Nearly 70% of these transition mineral mines overlap with Indigenous lands and roughly an equal amount is in regions of high biodiversity.

Strengthening the OSCE’s Climate Security Agenda, Emma Hakala and Florian Krampe, Stockholm International Peace Research Institute

Despite a clear mandate from the December 2021 Stockholm Ministerial Council Decision on Strengthening Co-operation to Address the Challenges Caused by Climate Change, the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe’s (OSCE) approach is yet to reach its full potential. The authors' analysis of the current strategy shows that while the OSCE has strengths, such as a comprehensive security mandate and a grassroots presence through its field operations, its effectiveness is undermined by weaknesses, such as geopolitical distractions, a tendency to focus on general environmental work rather than security and poor integration between headquarters and field missions. To strengthen its work, the OSCE should frame climate change as a cross-dimensional security risk, create an annual integrated climate and environmental security assessment and improve internal cooperation. These actions would better prepare the organization for a changing security landscape.

California prepares for a climate-safe future with new Climate Adaptation Strategy, State of California

The updated Climate Adaptation Strategy sets strategic direction through six priorities including protecting communities most vulnerable to climate change; improving public health and safety to protect against increasing climate risk; building a climate-resilient economy; expanding nature-based climate solutions and strengthening the resilience of natural systems; making decisions based on best available climate science, and partnering and collaborating to leverage resources. Key updates to the Strategy include the addition of new actions from recent climate initiatives like the 2021 Extreme Heat Action Plan and California’s Water Supply Strategy: Adapting to a Hotter, Drier Future; updates to actions and success metrics to improve clarity and reduce redundancy; increased consistency among success metrics and timeframes to improve implementation reporting, and integration of extensive public input, including feedback from over 500 Californians gathered through workshops, community meetings, online sessions, and tribal roundtables.

Economic and Power System Impacts of New York’s Nuclear Units, Murphy et al., Carbon Free New York

the authors examine the economic and power system effects of the four nuclear units in upstate New York. Constellation currently is actively assessing license renewal for two of these units. gridSIM, Brattle’s power sector capacity expansion model, is used to simulate power sector effects. Energy demand, resource adequacy, regulations and clean energy policies in New York as well as those in neighboring markets were accounted for in the analysis. The modeling was benchmarked against a recent New York Independent System Operator analysis.

Climate Change and Maternal, Newborn and Child Health: Time for Action, Takeda et al., The London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine

The authors explore the current scientific understanding of climate risks to maternal, newborn, and child health. They highlight the many threats for which significant epidemiological evidence exists, explore the substantial gaps in data and in academic research, and detail why it is so crucial to invest now to enhance our knowledge while developing actions that protect the health of women and children.

Companies’ Role in Scaling Up Durable Carbon Dioxide Removals, Mooldijk et al., New Climate Institute

Limiting global warming to 1.5?°C or well below 2?°C requires deep and sustained reductions in greenhouse gas emissions as the primary priority. In addition, carbon dioxide removal (CDR) will be necessary. Only durable forms of CDR that store CO? on millennial timescales can effectively neutralize residual fossil fuel emissions. Most companies focus on non-durable CDR (e.g. reforestation), in their climate strategies, but measuring the impact of these activities in GHG terms is highly limited. Problems include unreliable tracking and reporting, limited land and risks to ecosystem health. Moreover, the concept of reforestation in one area to offset deforestation elsewhere overlooks the local biodiversity and ecosystem services that communities depend on. Durable CDR uptake is small and mostly driven by a few big tech players. Microsoft alone is responsible for over two-thirds of all durable CDR ever contracted. To achieve global net-zero emissions, capacity and demand for durable CDR would need to increase by a factor of 1,000 by 2050.

About half of Americans understand that global warming is increasing homeowners insurance costs, Ettinger et al., Yale University and George Mason University

A large majority of Americans (82%) say the cost of homeowners insurance is increasing, including about two-thirds (66%) who say it is increasing “a lot.” A majority of Americans (69%) think disasters such as hurricanes, floods, and wildfires contribute to increasing homeowners insurance costs, including nearly half (47%) who say such disasters contribute “a lot.” About half of Americans (48%) think global warming contributes to increasing homeowners insurance costs. More Democrats than Republicans say that global warming contributes to the increasing cost of homeowners insurance. Although many Americans understand that global warming contributes to rising homeowners insurance costs, more attribute the cost increases to corporate profits, disasters (such as hurricanes, floods, and wildfires), inflation, and rising property values. Democrats and Republicans hold similar views about these other factors’ roles in increasing insurance costs.

Residents in at Least 41 States and Washington, D.C., Are Facing Increased Electric and Natural Gas Bills, Thyagarajan et al., The Center for American Progress

The Trump administration’s actions to discourage clean energy projects could send rates even higher. Utility companies propose increasing prices for customers in the next year, including estimated additional revenue collected through 2028 and monthly residential bill impacts. As of September 4, 2025, at least 102 gas and electric utilities have either raised or proposed higher rates that would go into effect in 2025 or 2026. Nearly 50 percent of the nation’s electricity utility customers (81 million) and more than one-third of natural gas customers (28 million) will be affected.*

Integrating Carbon Dioxide Removal with Industrial Processes: Challenges and Policy Opportunities, Daniel Elizald and Maeriam-Al-Shamma, Bipartisan Policy Center

Carbon dioxide removal (CDR) is a growing industry with the potential to reduce U.S. emissions while advancing national energy objectives. However, the removal and storage of carbon dioxide (CO2) from the atmosphere can be costly to implement and often requires access to large quantities of minerals, water, biomass waste, heat, energy, and other inputs. There are strong synergies between industries already dealing with these CDR inputs—in some cases, as waste products—and CDR pathways such as enhanced rock weathering and biomass carbon removal and storage. In many cases, processes enabling CDR deliver cost savings, operational efficiencies, and supply chain security, with carbon removal effectively a co-benefit. However, to overcome existing challenges to widespread deployment of CDR technologies, federal policy support will be needed alongside industry engagement. About New Research

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The previous edition of Skeptical Science New Research may be found here.

This is a re-post from The Climate Brink by Andrew Dessler

My last post described our 450-page response to the DOE Climate Working Group report. This DOE report seems designed to muddy the waters about climate science — it’s a new iteration of the Merchants of Doubt. We found the report used selective misquoting of the scientific literature (cherry picking), omission of contrary results from the scientific literature, and simple errors due to a lack of understanding of the science to reach its conclusions. Further commentary of the process is in this post.

A reporter asked me for a comment on a post on Dr. Judy Curry’s blog about our review of the DOE Climate Working Group report. In her post, she said:

Let me first say, wow, this is generous and far better than I expected. Only referring to me as “unhinged” once is a W and I’ll take it. Near the end of her post, she wrote:

underline added by me

When I read the underlined portion (added by me), I said to myself, “so that’s how they’re going to do it.” Yes, the fix is in — everyone should understand that this is a show trial for climate science and the inevitable outcome of this “debate” will be that climate science is found to be too uncertain to justify climate policy. And now I think I know how they’ll do it.

Let me walk you through it, starting with an explanation of how peer review works.

how does peer review work?

Peer review is a system of quality control designed to ensure the rigor of research and it’s one of the bedrocks of science. This process begins after individual research groups conduct their analyses and write up their findings in a manuscript.

The authors submit their manuscript to a scholarly journal. The manuscript is then assigned to one of the journal’s editors, who are typically established experts in the field. The editor first assesses the paper for its suitability for the journal. If it meets the basic criteria, the editor then sends the paper out to a few independent experts in the same field. These are the “peers” in peer review.

These peer reviewers critically evaluate the manuscript, scrutinizing its methodology, the validity of its data, the soundness of its conclusions, and its overall contribution to the field. They then send detailed comments and recommendations back to the editor.

The editor evaluates these comments and sends anonymized versions to the authors. The authors are then required to revise their paper, addressing the concerns and suggestions raised by the peer reviewers.

A crucial aspect of this process is that the ultimate authority to publish rests with the editor. Therefore, the authors must convince the editor that they have made the appropriate and necessary changes to their work. The paper can go back and forth over several revision cycles between the authors, the editor, and the peer reviewers.

This rigorous back-and-forth is a robust process. I can’t tell you how many times, when working with a student, I’ll tell them “That argument will never make it through peer review” as an indicator that we need to shore up that part of the work.

Eventually, the editor is satisfied that the authors have fixed the issues and the manuscript is accepted for publication. Or the editor decides that the paper does not meet the standard for publication and the paper is rejected.

While peer review does not eliminate all subpar work from being published, it absolutely compels authors to write better, clearer, and more scientifically defensible papers than would occur in its absence.

yes, there’s an extra arm in the middle panel you need an editor to handle the process

The editor’s role as a neutral arbiter is essential to the peer-review system. A process where reviews were sent directly back to authors, with instructions to “incorporate the good comments” would be disastrously ineffective.

Peer review is absolutely brutal. Receiving negative peer-review feedback after you’ve invested months of work into a manuscript can be a heart-rending and upsetting experience. The natural human tendency is to dismiss negative critiques (“the reviewers are idiots”) and ignore comments that require substantial revision.

This is why the editor is so important. To get the paper published, the authors understand that they have to address these criticisms head on. They cannot just blow them off because they’re upset — they must make cogent arguments that convince the editor that they have responded reasonably to the reviewers, regardless of how distasteful that is.

To demonstrate this, journals typically require authors to submit a point-by-point response that explains how each reviewer’s comment was addressed, often supplemented by a revised manuscript with tracked changes so the editor can see exactly where the changes were made.

scientific assessments are no different

The need for an impartial editor to ensure peer review is properly handled is also a requirement for scientific assessments. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has formalized this by appointing a “Review Editor” to each chapter. These editors play the same role as journal editors: they are auditors of the review process.

Their main responsibility is to take the complete record of comments from expert and government reviewers and verify that the author teams have responded to every single one, either by revising the text or by providing a transparent and scientifically valid reason for not doing so. This structured process guarantees that criticism is not simply dismissed by angry authors.

There are comprehensive descriptions of the duties of review editors (REs). Here’s the guidance for REs from the last IPCC report:

the job of the review editor (RE) in the IPCC process the DOE report

When I saw Dr. Curry’s comment that “I wouldn’t change any of the conclusions of the DOE report in response” to our comments, I suddenly realized that the DOE is not going to appoint a review editor.

They’re going to simply send the comments to the DOE authors and leave it up those authors whether and how to address comments. This is a recipe for a review process that is an unscientific sham and it would demonstrate in no uncertain terms that the DOE is uninterested in legitimate scientific debate.

The good news is that the solution is simple: they just need to appoint an unbiased, expert review editor for each chapter and design a process like that followed by the IPCC. That review editor would track every comment and ensure that a reasonable effort has been made to respond and publicly post that.

Luckily, there are thousands of climate scientists out there, so it should not be a problem to find a half dozen or so who are unbiased.

Perhaps I’m reading too much into that Curry quote. Maybe in a few days the DOE will announce the details of a credible review process, including the appointment of expert and unbiased review editors. Maybe pigs will fly. Maybe I’ll win the 2025 AL Cy Young Award. Who knows which of these equally likely things will occur.

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Has Arctic sea ice recovered?

Arctic sea ice, in both extent and volume, continues to decline.

The only fair comparison for Arctic sea ice is to a full 12 months prior, as ice accumulates each winter and melts each summer.

By that metric, Arctic sea ice extent set a record low maximum in March 2025, the month when ice is at its highest. Arctic sea ice volume for July 2025 was the 5th lowest on record.

There are two types of sea ice: thin “first-year” ice and thick “multi-year” ice. First-year ice grows and shrinks with the seasons and fluctuations in ocean currents and wind patterns.

These short-term ups and downs do not change the decline of multi-year ice. Satellite records since 1979 show continued loss in both extent and volume of multi-year ice. 

Since that year, June ice extent loss has totaled more than 3 million square kilometers, nearly twice the size of Alaska.

Go to full rebuttal on Skeptical Science or to the fact brief on Gigafact

This fact brief is responsive to quotes such as this one.

Sources

NSIDC Sea Ice Today

NSIDC Sea Ice - Science

Polar Science Center PIOMAS Arctic Sea Ice Volume Reanalysis

NSIDC The peak of summer, the depths of winter

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This is a re-post from The Climate Brink by Andrew Dessler

If you don’t follow climate policy closely, you may not know that the Trump administration is launching an effort to overturn one of the most fundamental pillars of American climate policy: the scientific finding that carbon dioxide endangers human health and welfare (the so-called “Endangerment Finding”). If successful, this move could unravel virtually every U.S. climate regulation on the books, from car emissions standards to power plant rules.

To support this effort, the Department of Energy hand-selected five climate contrarians who dispute mainstream science to write a report, which ended up saying exactly what you would expect it to say: climate science is too uncertain to justify policies to limit warming.

I’m guessing that the goal here is very much like what the tobacco companies did in the 1960s, 1970s, and 1980s. Their goal was not to win the debate that cigarettes were safe — they clearly understood they could not — but to muddy the waters enough to head off regulations on their business.

Thus, the DOE report is designed to do exactly the same thing: muddy the waters enough that the government can claim there’s too much uncertainty to regulate carbon dioxide.

I am part of a group of 85+ scientists who have submitted a 400+ page comment to the DOE critiquing their report. You can find a link to the comment and our press release here. If you are a reporter, science communicator, podcaster, etc., who wants an interview, please email us.

You can find bios for the author team here. It is a humbling group to be a part of, full of brilliant and high-achieving individuals, many of whom I have admired for years. The team’s ranks include six members of the National Academy of Sciences, two Fellows of the Royal Society, at least two MacArthur “Genius” Fellowship recipients, and numerous Fellows of the American Geophysical Union, American Meteorological Society, and the American Association for the Advancement of Science. Reinforcing their prominence in the field, many of these authors also wrote papers that were (mis)cited by the DOE report.

My personal perspective

Before I talk about our comment, let me give you my personal perspective. I did not go into science to make money, nor did I go in to push a “liberal agenda”. I went into science because I love science. I love the rigor, I love the discipline, I love looking at data and seeing how the world operates. Most importantly, I respect science.

When I read the DOE report, I saw a document that does not respect science. In fact, I saw a document that makes a mockery of science. And I thought to myself, I cannot let this go without a response. So that’s why I’ve spent a huge amount of time over the last month (when I should have been working on my classes for the fall semester) putting this comment together.

A show trial for climate science

Like any good Soviet trial, the outcome of this exercise by the Dept. of Energy is already known: climate science will be judged too uncertain to justify the endangerment finding.

Once you understand that, everything about the DOE report makes total sense. You understand why the five contrarian authors were selected: The only way to get this report was to pick these authors. If any other writing team had been chosen, the report would have been 180° different.

And you understand why it went through no serious peer review before release: the report would not have survived any legitimate peer review.

As my colleague Kerry Emanuel, arguably the world’s foremost authority on hurricanes physics, succinctly puts it:

My reading of the report uncovered numerous errors of commission and omission, all of which slant toward a conclusion that human-caused climate change poses no serious risks. It seems to work backward from a desired outcome.

To be clear, the DOE report raises no “interesting questions” overlooked by the scientific community, highlights no ignored research gaps, and brings no fresh perspective. Instead, it’s a rats’ nest of bad arguments.

To the extent that there are legitimate scientific arguments in there, those have already been rejected by the scientific community. But scientific arguments are rare in the DOE report; rather, it’s mainly selective misquoting of the scientific literature (cherry picking), omission of contrary results from the scientific literature, and simple errors due to a lack of understanding of the science.

The scale problem

Let’s compare the IPCC and DOE reports:

where IPCC WG1 = the Sixth Assessment Report working group 1 report and WG1+WG2 = the sum of working group 1 and 21.

The comparison reveals that the DOE report ignores 99% of the scientific literature reviewed by the IPCC2. This isn't surprising—five authors simply cannot read and analyze 24,000 papers in the scientific literature. Comprehensive analysis of this scale requires thousands of contributors, as the IPCC employs. It also requires a much longer time frame to write the text than the DOE authors apparently had.

It would be reasonable to ask yourself how you can have a meaningful discussion of any topic in science if you’re ignoring nearly all of the scientific literature on that topic.

And it’s not just that the authors don’t reference the literature — it seems clear that they have not read it. For example, Section 8.5 of the DOE report, “Attribution of Climate Impact Drivers”, is an entire section built on the authors not understanding what a climate impact-driver (CID) is.

The claims made in Section 8.5 are well-worn denier tropes (e.g, Table 12.12 shows humans aren’t affecting extreme weather!) based on this same misunderstanding. It seems likely that the authors of the report simply read a few denier blogs, thought to themselves, “Hey, this sounds like a good argument,” and copied it into their report.

Sadly, this is not the only example, although it’s among the most egregious. But it’s emblematic that these authors wrote on things that are far outside their knowledge base, leading to a sloppy report full of errors.

Again, this is also why the IPCC has thousands of authors, to ensure that every sentence written in an IPCC report is written by an expert team with deep and fundamental knowledge of the topic.

If you want to understand the problem with Section 8.5 in more detail, read that section of the DOE report and then read our comment (starting on page 312).

Conclusions

It appears to me that the DOE is mirroring the tactics chronicled in Naomi Oreskes and Erik Conway’s book Merchants of Doubt. For decades, industries facing regulation have employed the same playbook: hire contrarian experts, selectively cite favorable research, ignore contrary evidence, and claim that mainstream science is too uncertain to justify action.

We see this strategy deployed throughout the DOE report—from the hand-picked authorship team to the systematic omission of 99% of scientific literature to cherry picking favorable scientific papers and omitting unfavorable ones. Like their predecessors in the tobacco debates, these authors work backward from a predetermined conclusion rather than forward from the evidence.

I see no way that the report can be meaningfully revised while preserving its central (bogus) claim of excessive uncertainty. I therefore predict that the DOE will not actually revise this. Instead, they will declare victory and announce that their report was soooooo successful that they’re moving to the next stage of the “debate”, which will be a venue where scientific standards are even weaker — e.g., public debates, blogs, social media exchanges. These are venues where rules of evidence are weak and advocates can use rhetorical techniques3 that would never fly in the scientific community to spread uncertainty among the general public.

The history of cigarettes shows that such tactics can delay policy action for decades, but they cannot indefinitely postpone scientific reality from emerging. The only real question is how much damage the delay causes.

Thanks for reading The Climate Brink! Subscribe for free to receive new posts and support our work.

You can find a link to our comment here.

Other stuff

On The Trade Off, Ryan Katz-Rosene has two great posts about climate change and wildfires. They are here and here. Check ‘em out and subscribe!

1 The number of authors was estimated using values of 80 citations per chapter, the number of citations is 2,000 per chapter. This is a back-of-the-envelope calculation, so the numbers are certainly not exactly right, but the order of magnitude of the numbers is correct. For a complete analysis of the citations of the DOE report, see the section starting on page 432 of our comment. 2 The DOE report authors would probably respond that their report is not designed to cover as many topics as the IPCC, which is undoubtedly true. However, the scale difference is so enormous that this can’t explain the entire difference. 3.e.g, Gish Gallop

A listing of 28 news and opinion articles we found interesting and shared on social media during the past week: Sun, August 31, 2025 thru Sat, September 6, 2025. Stories we promoted this week, by category:

Climate Policy and Politics (8 articles)

• How to organize a peaceful and effective climate protest "Are you ready to organize your first event on behalf of the planet? Here are some ideas and tips on how to make it successful." Yale Climate Connections, Colleen M. Crary, Aug 28, 2025.
• Historians See Autocratic Playbook in Trump’s Attacks on Science "Authoritarians have long feared and suppressed science as a rival for social influence. Experts see President Trump as borrowing some of their tactics. The New York Times, William J. Broad, Aug 31, 2025.
• Trump cuts to climate satellites will make weather prediction harder, scientists say The Trump administration is scrapping satellite observations of Earth that officials say go beyond the essential task of predicting the weather. Washingto Post, Scott Dance, Sep 1, 2025.
• Dozens of scientists find errors in a new Energy Department climate report NPR News, Julia Somon, Sep 2, 2025.
• The merchants of doubt are back But this time, it's the U.S. government pushing doubt The Climate Brink, Andrew Dessler, Sep 02, 2025.
• Meet the UN-backed `green` investors` group that invested in fossil fuels Despite having pledged to reach net-zero emissions, major members of Net Zero Asset Managers hold billions of dollars’ worth of fossil-fuel stocks, including those in “carbon bomb” projects, while marketing their funds as green and sustainable. DeSmog, Giorgio Michalopoulos and Stefano Valentino, Sep 03, 2025.
• The fix is in Judy Curry unwittingly spills the beans The Climate Brink, Andrew Dessler, Sep 04, 2025.
• The Trump Administration Wants to Switch Off Climate Satellites The Trump administration wants to switch off and possibly destroy the climate-monitoring technology. New York Times, Sachi Kitajima Mulkey, Sep 05, 2025.

Climate Change Impacts (6 articles)

• Summer 2025 ranks among Spain's hottest ever after historic August heatwave "Extended periods of high temperatures this summer have significantly increased wildfire risks and put vulnerable communities on alert across Spain.? Green, EuraNews, Aug , Jesús Maturana, Aug 26, 2025.
• Deadly Floods in Punjab Devastate Pakistan’s Breadbasket Housing communities and businesses that rely on agriculture have been destroyed in the country’s largest province." Asia Pacific, by Elian Peltier & Zia ur-Rehman, Photographs by Asim Hafeez, by Asim Hafeez, Aug 31, 2025.
• ‘It happened so fast’: the shocking reality of indoor heat deaths in Arizona " ‘It happened so fast’: the shocking reality of indoor heat deaths in Arizona Heat deaths could surge in the state as energy poverty linked to Trump’s energy and trade policies burns" US News, The Guardian, Nina Lakhani, Aug 31, 2025.
• Climate change is making rollercoaster harvests the new normal Phys.org, University of British Columbia, Sep 03, 2025.
• Japan and South Korea record hottest summers in history "Record temperatures come amid scientists’ warnings that climate change is causing more frequent extreme weather events." Aljelzeera, Staff, Sep 3, 2025.
• Humans Are Altering the Seas. Here’s What the Future Ocean Might Look Like. "Some marine ecosystems could soon be unrecognizable, according to new research." Interactives, The New York Times, by Delger Erdenesanaa Graphics by Mira Rojanasakul; Photographs and Video by Madeline Gray, Dec 24, 2025.

Climate Science and Research (4 articles)

• How scientists unmask climate change’s role in extreme weather Mongabay, Kristine Sabillo, Sep 1, 2025.
• Global temperatures to remain above average despite return of La Niña, says UN "Climate phenomenon cools surface of Pacific but won’t stop human-induced climate change increasing temperatures and exacerbating extreme weather" The Guardian, Agence France-Presse, Sep 2, 2025.
• Five forecasts early climate models got right-the evidence is all around you The Conversation, Nadir Jeevanjee , Sep 03, 2025.
• Skeptical Science New Research for Week #36 2025 A don't miss: with ideological forces in the US federal government now actively misleading US citizens on climate change, the American Meteorological Society and another ad hoc group of scientists explain exactly how US citizens are being deceived. We make it easy to find both reports in our weekly research roundup. Skeptical Science, Doug Bostrom & Marc Kodack, Sep 04, 2025.

Public Misunderstandings about Climate Science (3 articles)

• AI ‘Slop’ Websites Are Publishing Climate Science Denial "MSN hosted AI-generated content that cited non-existent climate experts and institutions." DeSmogDeSmog, Joey Grostern, Aug 27, 2025.
• Debunking climate misinformation is becoming a full-time job - but you can help defend the facts | Jonathan Watts The political pushback against positive green progress has been shocking. But as corporations and those in power turn away, the overwhelming majority of people in the world want more ambitious climate action The Guardian, Jonathan Watts, Aug 31, 2025.
• Fact brief - Is global warming actually happening? Yes - Multiple indicators show Earth is warming rapidly. Skeptical Science, Sue Bin Park, Sep 2, 2025.

Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation (2 articles)

• How to protect US students from heat in schools – and is it time to rethink summer break? "US schools were built for a cooler climate that no longer exists. Now they face record-high temperatures" US News, The Guaardian, Marina Dunbar, Sep 3, 2025.
• Study: There is less room to store carbon dioxide, driver of climate change, than previously thought Phys.org, Tammy Webber, Sep 06, 2025.

Climate Education and Communication (2 articles)

• The growing question about climate change coverage right now Recent data hint at a possible recent downtrend in coverage. But the matter requires much more investigation before we can say for sure what's going on. ReportEarth, Chris Mooney, Sep 5, 2025.
• UN climate chief issues rallying cry on national climate plans as deadline looms "Simon Stiell calls for “strong” climate targets to be submitted as soon as possible to ensure their inclusion in a critical UN progress report" Climate Homes News, Matteo Civillini, Sp 5, 2025.

International Climate Conferences and Agreements (2 articles)

• Like many dysfunctional relationships, the UNFCCC and the IPCC need to talk more "To make the most of the best available research, the UN climate change convention and its climate science body must get in sync – fast" Opinion, Climate Home News, Opinion by Svante Bodin & Örjan Gustafsson, Aug 28, 2025.
• Despite Lack of Federal Support, US Scientists Continue Work on Key Global Climate Reports "Amid rising repression of climate science domestically, researchers from universities around the country are lending their expertise to an international effort." Science, Inside Climate News, Bob Berwyn, Aug 30, 2025.

Miscellaneous (Other)

• 2025 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #35 A listing of 29 news and opinion articles we found interesting and shared on social media during the past week: Sun, August 24, 2025 thru Sat, August 30, 2025. Skeptical Science, Bärbel Winkler, John Hartz & Doug Bostrom, Aug 31, 2025.

If you happen upon high quality climate-science and/or climate-myth busting articles from reliable sources while surfing the web, please feel free to submit them via this Google form so that we may share them widely. Thanks!

Open access notables

Special: The Practice and Assessment of Science: Five Foundational Flaws in the Department of Energy's 2025 Climate Report, AMS Council, American Meteorological Society

Here we identify five foundational flaws in the Department of Energy’s (DoE’s) 2025 Climate Synthesis report[1]. Each of these flaws, alone, places the report at odds with scientific principles and practices. For the report to accurately characterize scientific understanding and to be useful as a basis for informed policy and decision making, the DoE must first rectify all five flaws and then conduct a comprehensive assessment of scientific evidence. Were DoE to do so, the result will almost certainly be conclusions that are broadly consistent with previous comprehensive scientific assessments of climate change, such as those from the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine (NASEM); American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS); Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), American Meteorological Society (AMS), and a wide-range of other scientific organizations. 

[See also first item in gov/NGO reports section, Climate Experts’ Review of the DOE Climate Working Group Report.]

Anthropogenic forcing drives equatorward migration of heatwave locations across continents, Feng et al., Nature Communications 

Heatwaves have increased in frequency, intensity, duration, and spatial extent, posing a serious threat to socioeconomic development, natural ecosystems and human health worldwide. Assessments of trends in heatwave locations (HWL) have been hindered by the distinct regional characteristics of heatwaves across continents. Here we identify a consistent striking equatorward migration in the average latitudinal location of heatwaves occurrence over the period 1979−2023 based on various datasets. The trends of HWL in each hemisphere illustrate equatorward migration at a rate of approximately one degree of latitude per decade, which falls well into the extent of the estimated rate in the observed intertropical convergence zone contraction and the contrast in soil moisture between tropics and subtropics. Our analyses suggest that anthropogenic contribution plays a dominant role in the equatorward trends. The equatorward migration, which has already occurred and is projected to continue in future scenarios, highlights that the risk of damages and disasters caused by heatwaves may increase at lower latitudes.

How climate change and deforestation interact in the transformation of the Amazon rainforest, Franco et al., Nature Communications

The Amazon rainforest is one of Earth’s most diverse ecosystems, playing a key role in maintaining regional and global climate stability. However, recent changes in land use, vegetation, and the climate have disrupted biosphere-atmosphere interactions, leading to significant alterations in the water, energy, and carbon cycles. These disturbances have far-reaching consequences for the entire Earth system. Here, we quantify the relative contributions of deforestation and global climate change to observed shifts in key Amazonian climate parameters. We analyzed long-term atmospheric and land cover change data across 29 areas in the Brazilian Legal Amazon from 1985 to 2020, using parametric statistical models to disentangle the effects of forest loss and alterations of temperature, precipitation, and greenhouse gas mixing ratios. While the rise in atmospheric methane (CH4) and carbon dioxide (CO2) mixing ratios is primarily driven by global emissions (>99%), deforestation has significantly increased surface air temperatures and reduced precipitation during the Amazonian dry season. Over the past 35 years, deforestation has accounted for approximately 74% of the  ~ 21 mm dry season−1 decline and 16.5% of the 2°C rise in maximum surface air temperature. Understanding the interplay between global climate change and deforestation is essential for developing effective mitigation and adaptation strategies to preserve this vital ecosystem.

Global Warming Induced Changes in Extreme Precipitation in the Western United States: Projections From Dynamically Downscaled CMIP6 GCMs, Adhikari et al., Geophysical Research Letters

This study uses 25 CMIP6 global climate model simulations, bias-corrected and dynamically downscaled to 9 km, to examine regional changes in extreme precipitation, and predictive uncertainty, in the western United States under global warming levels (GWL) of 2°C and 3°C. This resolution is needed to capture orographic precipitation enhancement. Most models agree on significant increases in both the Rx1day and R99p indices. The largest increases in extreme precipitation are anticipated in California, both in an absolute sense, with Rx1day increases up to ∼10 mm/day, and in a relative sense, with up to a doubling of R99p in the more arid parts of the state for GWL 3°C. The most significant reductions in return intervals of extreme precipitation events are anticipated in the Rocky Mountain region. For instance, 50-year Rx1day events become 3 to 4 times more frequent under GWL 2°C and 6 to 8 times more frequent under GWL 3°C.

 

This study is funded by the National Science Foundation under Grant OIA-2149105 and enabled by University of Wyoming award WYOM0143 that provided access to the resources of the NCAR Wyoming Supercomputer Center.

Hottest year in recorded history compounds global biodiversity risks, Merow et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences

As climate change accelerates, effectively monitoring and managing the growing impacts on biodiversity is an urgent priority. Here, we identify the exposure of species to unprecedented heat to evaluate the potential impact of 2024—the hottest year on record—across >33,000 vertebrate species worldwide. One in six (5,368) species were exposed to unprecedented temperatures across >25% of their range—68% more species than in 2023. Most (81%) species exposed in 2023 were also exposed in 2024, potentially compounding risks. For the first time, widespread species were exposed to extreme temperatures across >10% of their ranges. We propose using these exposure estimates to inform monitoring and mitigation efforts to avoid the worst impacts of climate change.

From this week's government/NGO section:

Climate Experts’ Review of the DOE Climate Working Group Report, Dressler et al., Ad hoc

On behalf of the more than 85 experts who contributed to the Climate Experts’ Review of the DOE Climate Working Group Report, we are writing to submit this compendium of public comments on the Climate Working Group (CWG) Report entitled A Critical Review of Impacts of Greenhouse Gas Emissions on the U.S. Climate, under docket number DOE-HQ-2035-0207. As explained at length in these comments, the CWG report currently fails to adequately represent the scientific understanding of climate change. DOE must subject the CWG report to unbiased, robust, and transparent peer review under the Information Quality Act and other federal requirements. Accordingly, it will require very substantial revision before it can be relied upon by any federal agency or other entity.

[See also American Meteorological Society Responds to DOE Climate Synthesis Report]

Value of Wind in Winter 2024/25, Daymark Energy Advisors, Renew Northwest

The authors examine the potential New England regional market and Massachusetts ratepayer impacts if 3,500 MW of contracted offshore wind projects had been generating last winter between December 2024-February 2025. This study is intended as a high level, indicative analysis of some key environmental and market benefits; it does not attempt to capture all benefits of offshore wind. Meteorological data shows that offshore wind could have produced 3.6 billion kilowatt-hours of electricity in winter 2024/25, enough to power 567,759 homes for an entire year. The authors hourly dispatch analysis indicates that emission-free offshore wind generation would have offset natural gas, oil and coalfired generation, reducing fossil fuel burned by 34 million MMBtu over the 3-month period. Greenhouse gas emissions savings of 1.8 million tons is equivalent to removing almost 400,000 passenger cars from the road for a year. 116 articles in 50 journals by 674 contributing authors

Physical science of climate change, effects

Enhanced Relationship Between Stratospheric Sudden Warming and the Madden–Julian Oscillation in Recent Two Decades, Ma et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2025gl117289

Human-induced changes in extreme cold surges across the Northern Hemisphere, Nie et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-025-62576-2

Recent asymmetric tropical ocean warming has altered regional propagation of Madden-Julian Oscillation, Kim et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-025-02652-z

Relative importance of driving factors for daytime and nighttime heatwaves in China, Qin et al., Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society 10.1002/qj.5045

Unprecedented UK heatwave harmonised drivers of fuel moisture creating extreme temperate wildfire risk, Ivison et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-025-02746-8

Observations of climate change, effects

Anthropogenic Changes of Compound Extreme Precipitation Preconditioned by Heatwaves Have Emerged From the Internal Climate Variability in China, Liu et al., Earth's Future Open Access 10.1029/2024ef005162

Anthropogenic forcing drives equatorward migration of heatwave locations across continents, Feng et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-025-63558-0

Deceleration of tropopause rise amidst ozone recovery over Queen Maud Land, East Antarctica, Wu et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2025.08.003

Flood inundation amplified by large-scale ground subsidence funnel under the ongoing global climate change, He et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-025-02669-4

How climate change and deforestation interact in the transformation of the Amazon rainforest, Franco et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-025-63156-0

Snowfall decrease in recent years undermines glacier health and meltwater resources in the Northwestern Pamirs, Jouberton et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-025-02611-8

Instrumentation & observational methods of climate change, effects

A new metric: average extreme heat intensity used as indication of climate change signals in arid environment (Iraq), Qasim et al., Theoretical and Applied Climatology 10.1007/s00704-025-05711-9

Editorial: AI and data analytics for climate data management, Kumar et al., Frontiers in Environmental Science Open Access 10.3389/fenvs.2025.1679608

Global dataset of storm surges and extreme sea levels for 1950–2024 based on the ERA5 climate reanalysis, Aleksandrova et al., Open Access 10.5194/essd-2025-471

Modeling, simulation & projection of climate change, effects

A Model-Based Evaluation of the Effects of Irrigation Expansion on Regional and Global Land Surface Climate, Casirati et al., Earth's Future Open Access 10.1029/2025ef006271

Attributing future changes in terrestrial evapotranspiration: The combined impacts of climate change, rising CO2, and land use change, Hou et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 10.1016/j.agrformet.2025.110747

Bias-Corrected Climate Projections for Xinjiang: Decomposing Future Trends and Uncertainties in Temperature and Precipitation, Fan & Duan, International Journal of Climatology 10.1002/joc.70101

Diverging trends in large floods across Europe in a warming climate, Fang et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-025-02734-y

Global Warming Induced Changes in Extreme Precipitation in the Western United States: Projections From Dynamically Downscaled CMIP6 GCMs, Adhikari et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1029/2025gl116113

Projections of Aerosol Effect on Diurnal Cycle of Precipitation Amount and Frequency Over Central Africa, Mbienda et al., International Journal of Climatology 10.1002/joc.70103

Scaling of precipitation extremes with surface temperature in western Canada: Understanding the control factors using a convection-permitting climate model, Li & Li, Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society Open Access 10.1002/qj.5033

The Impact of Antarctic Sea Ice on Southern Ocean Water Mass Transformation in Coupled Climate Models, Chen et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans Open Access 10.1029/2025jc022445

The Increased Eddy Kinetic Energy in the California Current System From High-Resolution Climate Models' Projections, Wang et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2025gl116713

What CMIP6 Models Tell Us About the Impact of AMOC Variability on the Arctic, Weijer et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2025gl116282

Advancement of climate & climate effects modeling, simulation & projection

An ensemble-based coupled reanalysis of the climate from 1860 to the present (CoRea1860+), Wang et al., Earth System Science Data Open Access 10.5194/essd-17-4185-2025

An improved and extended parameterization of the CO2 15 µm cooling in the middle and upper atmosphere (CO2&cool&fort-1.0), López-Puertas et al., Geoscientific Model Development Open Access 10.5194/gmd-17-4401-2024

Benefits of kilometer-scale climate modeling for winds in complex terrain: strong versus weak winds, Beluši? & Lind, Weather and Climate Dynamics Open Access pdf 10.5194/wcd-6-863-2025

Comparative study of parameterization schemes for aerosol indirect effects in East Asia based on RegCM4, Zhao et al., Atmospheric Environment 10.1016/j.atmosenv.2025.121505

Long-Term Regime Shifts in Xeric Ecoregion Freshwater Fish Assemblages due to Anthropogenic and Climate Stressors, Krabbenhoft et al., Ecology and Evolution Open Access 10.1002/ece3.72067

Resolution Effects on Extreme Precipitation Simulation Over China: A CMIP6 HighResMIP Perspective, Zhang et al., International Journal of Climatology 10.1002/joc.70100

Sensitivity of Earth's Radiation Budget to Lower Boundary Condition Data Sets in Historical Climate Simulations, Fan et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2025gl115914

Cryosphere & climate change

Evolution of Ice Tensile Strength With Grain Size: Implications for Future Mass Loss From Pine Island Glacier, Ranganathan & Robel Robel, Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2025gl117691

Investigating seasonal and multi-decadal water/ice storage changes in the Murtèl rock glacier using time-lapse gravimetry, Halloran & Amschwand Amschwand, Open Access 10.5194/egusphere-2024-3933

Sea level & climate change

Global dataset of storm surges and extreme sea levels for 1950–2024 based on the ERA5 climate reanalysis, Aleksandrova et al., Open Access 10.5194/essd-2025-471

Paleoclimate & paleogeochemistry

Anomalous warm winters on the southeastern Tibetan Plateau during the 8.2 ka cold event: Implications for recent warming amplification, Yu & Zhang, Global and Planetary Change 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2025.105027

Early Warming Over the Southern Ocean During the Last Deglaciation, Zheng et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1029/2025gl117155

Enhanced Continental Weathering Contributed to the Termination of the Middle Miocene Climatic Optimum, Wu et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2025gl118302

Sensitivity of Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide to Dust Iron Solubility During the Last Glacial-Interglacial Cycle, Opazo et al., Paleoceanography and Paleoclimatology Open Access 10.1029/2025pa005132

Biology & climate change, related geochemistry

Tubastraea coccinea (Lesson, 1830), a coral species with high invasive potential, can benefit from the synergistic effects of ocean warming and acidification, Vilanova Gallardo et al., Marine Environmental Research Open Access 10.1016/j.marenvres.2025.107430

Contrasting effects of rhizosphere and sediment microbiota on seagrass performance in response to a simulated marine heatwave, Jongen et al., Journal of Ecology Open Access 10.1111/1365-2745.70104

Hottest year in recorded history compounds global biodiversity risks, Merow et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Open Access 10.1073/pnas.2504945122

Land aridification persists in vulnerable drylands under climate mitigation scenarios, Piao et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-025-02742-y

Long-Term Regime Shifts in Xeric Ecoregion Freshwater Fish Assemblages due to Anthropogenic and Climate Stressors, Krabbenhoft et al., Ecology and Evolution Open Access 10.1002/ece3.72067

Marine heatwaves and eutrophication jeopardize the seagrass Halodule wrightii and associated infauna, Peixoto Dias et al., Marine Environmental Research 10.1016/j.marenvres.2025.107441

Marine heatwaves are shaping the vertical structure of phytoplankton in the global ocean, Ma & Chen, Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-025-02718-y

Projecting Uncertainty in Ecosystem Persistence Under Climate Change, Buelow et al., Global Change Biology Open Access 10.1111/gcb.70468

Rapid Climate Acclimation (Not Traits or Phylogeny) Drives Variation in Photosynthesis Temperature Response, Garen & Michaletz, Global Change Biology Open Access 10.1111/gcb.70474

Rising global temperatures reduce soil microbial diversity over the long term, Sun et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Open Access 10.1073/pnas.2426200122

Snowmelt timing alters the phenology but not the performance of an understory spring ephemeral plant, Kiel et al., Journal of Ecology Open Access 10.1111/1365-2745.70099

Soil and forest floor respiration already acclimated to increasing temperatures in a mixed deciduous forest, Scapucci et al., Ecological Processes Open Access 10.1186/s13717-025-00639-4

Spatiotemporal variations of vegetation and its response to climate change and human activities in loess hilly area of western Henan Province, China, Gu et al., Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution Open Access 10.3389/fevo.2025.1597342

GHG sources & sinks, flux, related geochemistry

Above and Belowground Carbon Dynamics of a Degraded Mountain Peatland, Jayasekara et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences Open Access 10.1029/2025jg008822

Climate and vegetation jointly determine the interannual variation of net ecosystem CO2 fluxes over 12 years in a restored coastal wetland, Zhang et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 10.1016/j.agrformet.2025.110760

Climate Warming and Soil Drying Lead to a Reduction of Riverine Dissolved Organic Carbon in China, Yu et al., Global Biogeochemical Cycles 10.1029/2025gb008665

Current and future methane emissions from boreal-Arctic wetlands and lakes, Kuhn et al., Nature Climate Change 10.1038/s41558-025-02413-y

Direct analysis of dissolved CO2 in coastal waters: development and validation of a simple method, Rangel-García et al., Marine Environmental Research Open Access 10.1016/j.marenvres.2025.107414

Global methane footprints growth and drivers 1990-2023, Shan et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-025-63383-5

Massive losses and gains of northern land carbon stocks since the Last Glacial Maximum, Lindgren et al., Science Advances Open Access 10.1126/sciadv.adt6231

Record-breaking high temperature amplifies the negative anomaly of tropical net land carbon sinks in the 2023-2024 El Niño, Du et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 10.1016/j.agrformet.2025.110793

Soil Carbon Dynamics Reshaped by Ancient Carbon Quantification, Copard et al., Global Change Biology Open Access pdf 10.1111/gcb.70482

Spatial and temporal variations of gross primary production simulated by land surface model BCC&AVIM2.0, Li et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2023.02.001

Substantial Deep-Soil Carbon Losses Outweigh Topsoil Gains in European Beech Forests Since the 1980s, Mayer et al., Global Change Biology Open Access 10.1111/gcb.70446

Unexpected decline in the ocean carbon sink under record-high sea surface temperatures in 2023, Müller et al., Nature Climate Change Open Access 10.1038/s41558-025-02380-4

CO2 capture, sequestration science & engineering

CO2 sequestration in geological formations: Insights into mineral reactions and reservoir dynamics, Nazari et al., Earth 10.1016/j.earscirev.2025.105200

Land availability and policy commitments limit global climate mitigation from forestation, Wang et al., Science 10.1126/science.adj6841

Rising from the ashes: treatments stabilize carbon storage in California’s frequent-fire forests, Yackulic et al., Frontiers in Forests and Global Change Open Access 10.3389/ffgc.2025.1498430

Decarbonization

Concentrating solar technologies for low-carbon energy, Stengler et al., Nature Reviews Clean Technology 10.1038/s44359-025-00096-4

Cultivating engagement: Public participation in agrivoltaics planning and design, Seay-Fleming et al., Energy Research & Social Science 10.1016/j.erss.2025.104273

Optimizing utility-scale solar siting for local economic benefits and regional decarbonization, Owusu-Obeng et al., Energy Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.enpol.2025.114834

Review of the Challenges and Prospects in Agrivoltaics, Mahim et al., Advanced Energy and Sustainability Research Open Access 10.1002/aesr.202500227

Geoengineering climate

Multi-Model Future World Aridity and Groundwater Recharge Changes With and Without Stratospheric Aerosol Intervention Under High Warming Scenario, Rezaei et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1029/2025gl117234

Sensitivity of Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide to Dust Iron Solubility During the Last Glacial-Interglacial Cycle, Opazo et al., Paleoceanography and Paleoclimatology Open Access 10.1029/2025pa005132

Aerosols

Projections of Aerosol Effect on Diurnal Cycle of Precipitation Amount and Frequency Over Central Africa, Mbienda et al., International Journal of Climatology 10.1002/joc.70103

Climate change communications & cognition

Energy at the fair: County fair sponsorship patterns from the energy sector in the United States, Martinez et al., Energy Research & Social Science Open Access 10.1016/j.erss.2025.104245

Public Attitudes to Responding to Global Catastrophic Risks: A New Zealand Case Study, Kerr et al., Risk Analysis Open Access 10.1111/risa.70096

The effects of second-order climate beliefs on environmental communication behavior: The mediating role of environmental discussion efficacy, Ji et al., Journal of Environmental Psychology 10.1016/j.jenvp.2025.102746

Agronomy, animal husbundry, food production & climate change

A Systematic Review on the Role of Agroforestry Practices in Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation, Abebaw et al., Climate Resilience and Sustainability Open Access 10.1002/cli2.70018

Bridging the gap between natural and social sciences: a bibliometric review of climate-smart agriculture-challenges and opportunities, Zhao et al., Environment, Development and Sustainability Open Access 10.1007/s10668-025-06782-4

Climate change increases the interannual variance of summer crop yields globally through changes in temperature and water supply, Proctor et al., Science Advances 10.1126/sciadv.ady3575

Cultivating engagement: Public participation in agrivoltaics planning and design, Seay-Fleming et al., Energy Research & Social Science 10.1016/j.erss.2025.104273

Estimation of Seasonal Net Carbon Sequestration Under Noncontinuous Flooding in Rice Fields, Hou et al., Global Change Biology 10.1111/gcb.70464

Greenhouse Gas Footprints of Maize Cultivation Systems in Different Climate Zones: Field Data Validation and Application of CNMM–DNDC as a Hydro-Biogeochemical Model, Li et al., Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 10.1007/s00376-025-4420-y

Modeling biochar effects on soil organic carbon on croplands in a microbial decomposition model (MIMICS-BC&v1.0), Han et al., Geoscientific Model Development Open Access 10.5194/gmd-17-4871-2024

Modeling material flow dynamics in coupled natural-industrial ecosystems for resilience to climate change: A case study on a soybean-based industrial ecosystem, Farlessyost & Singh, Journal of Industrial Ecology Open Access 10.1111/jiec.70087

Modeling the impact of climate warming on tomato phenology, Ahmad et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 10.1016/j.agrformet.2025.110825

More Than a Decade of Moderate Grazing: No Impact on Soil Organic Carbon Stocks and Enhancement of Mineral-Associated Organic Carbon via Livestock Diversification, Zhou et al., Global Change Biology 10.1111/gcb.70466

Oyster farming acts as a marine carbon dioxide removal (mCDR) hotspot for climate change mitigation, Chen et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Open Access 10.1073/pnas.2504004122

Review of the Challenges and Prospects in Agrivoltaics, Mahim et al., Advanced Energy and Sustainability Research Open Access 10.1002/aesr.202500227

Spring phenology projections for apples in southwestern Germany indicate persistent frost risk levels, Caspersen et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology Open Access 10.1016/j.agrformet.2025.110824

Hydrology, hydrometeorology & climate change

Climate impacts and future trends of hailstorms in China based on millennial records, Zhang et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-025-63028-7

Climate-Driven Changes to Suspended-Sediment Yields by the End of the Century, Prescott & Pelletier Pelletier, Earth's Future Open Access 10.1029/2025ef006125

Diverging trends in large floods across Europe in a warming climate, Fang et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-025-02734-y

Anthropogenic Changes of Compound Extreme Precipitation Preconditioned by Heatwaves Have Emerged From the Internal Climate Variability in China, Liu et al., Earth's Future Open Access 10.1029/2024ef005162

Anthropogenic forcing drives equatorward migration of heatwave locations across continents, Feng et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-025-63558-0

Flood inundation amplified by large-scale ground subsidence funnel under the ongoing global climate change, He et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-025-02669-4

How climate change and deforestation interact in the transformation of the Amazon rainforest, Franco et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-025-63156-0

Snowfall decrease in recent years undermines glacier health and meltwater resources in the Northwestern Pamirs, Jouberton et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-025-02611-8

Flood inundation amplified by large-scale ground subsidence funnel under the ongoing global climate change, He et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-025-02669-4

Interdecadal Variation of Spring Rainfall in Taiwan and Modulations of Global Warming and Pacific Decadal Oscillation, Li et al., International Journal of Climatology 10.1002/joc.8904

Modeling the Effects of Aridification on Hydrologic Fluxes and Reservoir Dynamics in the U.S. Southwest, Elkouk et al., Earth's Future Open Access 10.1029/2025ef006372

Snowfall decrease in recent years undermines glacier health and meltwater resources in the Northwestern Pamirs, Jouberton et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-025-02611-8

SSP-CABra—Streamflow Scenarios Projections for Brazilian Catchments, Almagro et al., Geoscience Data Journal Open Access 10.1002/gdj3.70029

Climate change economics

Examining climate shocks and currency resilience in a stateless economy: evidence from Somalia’s informal exchange market, Nor, Frontiers in Climate Open Access 10.3389/fclim.2025.1615226

Climate change mitigation public policy research

Climate change mitigation and the European Union: a Lacanian exploration of desire and enjoyment, Swyngedouw, Environmental Politics 10.1080/09644016.2025.2553468

Household carbon caps and tariffs: A living lab experiment, Scharnhorst et al., Energy Research & Social Science Open Access 10.1016/j.erss.2025.104294

Improving the IPCC–UNFCCC relationship for effective provision of policy-relevant science, Bodin & Gustafsson, Nature Climate Change 10.1038/s41558-025-02412-z

Meteorological drivers of carbon flux variations on Xinglong Mountain in the transition zone between the Qinghai–Tibet and Loess Plateaus, Chen et al., Frontiers in Environmental Science Open Access 10.3389/fenvs.2025.1657389

Mitigation and adaptation: Assessing the multi-value benefits of transmission expansion, Seatle & McPherson, Energy Policy 10.1016/j.enpol.2025.114821

Nigeria's climate responsiveness: Navigating energy-climate and techno-financial conundrums in the low-carbon energy transition, Atedhor, Energy for Sustainable Development 10.1016/j.esd.2025.101810

Pathways towards carbon-peak transportation in China: Energy alternatives and emission mitigation strategies, Zhang et al., Energy for Sustainable Development 10.1016/j.esd.2025.101796

Plausible global emissions scenario for 2 °C aligned with China’s net-zero pathway, Zhong et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-025-62983-5

Reconfiguring industry in the United Kingdom. Global lessons for ambition versus policy on the path towards net-zero, Finkill et al., Energy Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.enpol.2025.114832

Scaling fairness: Balancing self-interest, community needs and societal justice for public acceptance of climate change mitigation policies in the Nordic Region, Tapia et al., Environmental Science & Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.envsci.2025.104185

To speak truth as, with, and through power: Co-producing knowledge politics of a just transition with Swedish citizens and trade unions, Sokolova, Environmental Science & Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.envsci.2025.104166

Climate change adaptation & adaptation public policy research

A novel climate assessment framework for integrating adaptation into planning and design interventions on public real estate, Apreda et al., Urban Climate 10.1016/j.uclim.2025.102589

Barriers to nature-based solutions for climate change adaptation in Mexico, Bernabé & Park, Climate and Development 10.1080/17565529.2025.2540443

Climate change preparedness in Nigerian libraries: an empirical study on vulnerabilities and strategic actions for resilience, Ajani et al., Climate and Development 10.1080/17565529.2025.2539164

Decision-making under flood predictions: A risk perception study of coastal real estate, Seenath et al., Risk Analysis Open Access 10.1111/risa.17706

Global climate migration is a story of who and not just how many, Benveniste et al., Open Access 10.2139/ssrn.4925994

Moving beyond projects to achieve transformative adaptation, Mills-Novoa et al., Nature Climate Change Open Access 10.1038/s41558-025-02414-x

Revisiting the challenges to monitoring, evaluation, reporting, and learning for climate adaptation, Goodwin & Olazabal, Environmental Science & Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.envsci.2025.104199

The 2021 Henan flood increased citizen demand for government-led climate change adaptation in China, Shen, Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-025-02745-9

Transboundary conflict from surface water scarcity under climate change, Jiang et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-025-63568-y

Climate change impacts on human health

Inequality in human exposure to future climate extremes, Hosseinzadehtalaei et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-025-63385-3

Sustainable personal cooling in a warming world, Shou & Li, Science 10.1126/science.adt9536

Climate change & geopolitics

Transboundary conflict from surface water scarcity under climate change, Jiang et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-025-63568-y

Informed opinion, nudges & major initiatives

The Practice and Assessment of Science: Five Foundational Flaws in the Department of Energy's 2025 Climate Report, AMS Council, American Meteorological Society

Hottest year in recorded history compounds global biodiversity risks, Merow et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Open Access 10.1073/pnas.2504945122

Articles/Reports from Agencies and Non-Governmental Organizations Addressing Aspects of Climate Change

An EU purchasing programme for permanent carbon removals: Assessment of policy options and recommendations for short-term policy design, McDonald et al., European Commission

To address the lack of demand for permanent carbon dioxide removal, the authors explore the potential for an European Union (EU) purchasing program that identifies and assesses policy options for an EU purchasing program and proposes a detailed policy design for a purchasing-prograe in the short- term (2025-2030).

Carbon removals in the EU. Review of current carbon removal projects and early-stage financing, Witteveen et al., European Commission

The authors focus on permanent carbon removals. While there is not yet one agreed classification of permanent carbon dioxide removal technologies, the authors focus on the following: - Biochar carbon removal - Biogenic emission capture with permanent carbon storage (BioCCS), focusing on Bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) - Direct air carbon capture and storage (DACCS) - In-situ mineralisation - Ex-situ mineralisation (and Enhanced Rock Weathering (ERW)) - Ocean-based approaches (Direct Ocean Capture (DOC), Ocean Alkalinity Enhancement (OAE)).

Funding EU carbon removals. Assessment of existing EU funding programmes and new funding models to increase carbon removal supply, Marton et al., European Commission

The authors assess and map existing European Union (EU) programs available to CDR companies within the EU framework, and how they can be improved to better support the scale-up of CDR technologies. This includes analyzing the programs and assessing their relevance and effectiveness with regard to different CDR technologies, identifying current obstacles and opportunities and suggesting improvements areas. The authors also identify and assess innovative models and approaches for funding of early-stage CDR projects, considering the specificities of each CDR technology. Additionally, the task will consider the impact of proposed funding tools on the EU budget and their potential to attract private investment.

Consumer Pulse and Market Segmentation, Wave 9, Smart Energy Consumer Collaborative

In this survey, the authors asked about electricity attitudes, priorities and concerns, interest in and use of technology to manage electricity use, relationship and engagement with their electricity providers, and energy management behaviors and demographics.

The State of Siting: 2025 Legislative Round-Up, Alex Breckel and Nelson Falkenburg, Clean Tomorrow

The authors attempt to clarify siting policy options, provide useful context, and empower others to improve state and local siting policies for renewable energy projects. The authors provide an overview of every siting policy framework used across the continental United States.

Water Inequity in Global Agricultural Trade, Qin et al., United Nations University Institute for Water, Environment, and Health (

Virtual water transfers through food trades generally reduce water scarcity for much of the global population, while at the same time deepening shortages for millions of others, particularly those in low-income communities. The authors found that this trade generally alleviates water scarcity for a large portion of the global population, with developed countries benefiting more than developing ones. For example, 75% of the population in developed countries benefit from reduced scarcity, while in developing countries, 62% of the population benefits, but 37% experience increased scarcity. This reflects the disproportionate impact on lower-income groups. Trade can increase inequality and inequity in regions like northern Africa and Saudi Arabia, while improvements are seen in China and some other African countries. Developing countries face a higher prevalence of increased inequality and inequity (29% of the population), with trade-related imbalances often driving these unjust outcomes.

The Electrification Tipping Point. The energy, economic, and emissions impacts of electrifying Australia’s homes and vehicles, Griffith et al., Rewiring Australia

The authors show that the economics in Australia have passed a crucial milestone: buying an electric appliance or vehicle is cheaper than the fossil-fuel powered alternative, even when you consider the upfront costs. That means buying an efficient, electric appliance is always going to be cheaper than its fossil fuel alternative.

Value of Wind in Winter 2024/25, Daymark Energy Advisors, Renew Northwest

The authors examine the potential New England regional market and Massachusetts ratepayer impacts if 3,500 MW of contracted offshore wind projects had been generating last winter between December 2024-February 2025. This study is intended as a high level, indicative analysis of some key environmental and market benefits; it does not attempt to capture all benefits of offshore wind. Meteorological data shows that offshore wind could have produced 3.6 billion kilowatt-hours of electricity in winter 2024/25, enough to power 567,759 homes for an entire year. The authors hourly dispatch analysis indicates that emission-free offshore wind generation would have offset natural gas, oil and coalfired generation, reducing fossil fuel burned by 34 million MMBtu over the 3-month period. Greenhouse gas emissions savings of 1.8 million tons is equivalent to removing almost 400,000 passenger cars from the road for a year.

Drought & Climate Resiliency Solutions for Small Water Systems in Los Angeles County, Sun et al., Department of Urban Planning at the University of California, Los Angeles

The authors examine the vulnerabilities of small water systems, many of which were directly impacted by the L.A. wildfires, and proposes solutions to ensure safe and reliable drinking water for fire-impacted communities across Los Angeles County

Voters Support Geothermal and Nuclear Energy Development Over Fossil Fuels, Catherine Fraser, Data for Progress

As demand for electricity rises and the urgency to decarbonize power system grows, nuclear and geothermal development presents a tremendous opportunity to deliver clean, reliable power to the grid, and to complement the intermittency of solar and wind energy. A new poll explores voter attitudes toward nuclear and geothermal, particularly in the context of local deployment and decarbonization. While geothermal energy in particular is still largely unknown to voters, these survey results demonstrate a clear demand for clean energy — like solar, wind, battery storage, nuclear, and geothermal — over fossil fuels, and a strong interest in the public development and ownership of nuclear energy. As the New York Power Authority (NYPA) moves forward with developing New York’s first new nuclear facility in decades, voters signal a clear appetite for an approach that prioritizes public ownership and involvement in such development.

Allocating Electricity, Alexandra Klass and Dave Owen, George Washington Law Review

Based on principles distilled from federal natural gas markets and U.S. western water law doctrine, the authors propose a contracts- and trading-based framework for regulating data centers. They call this approach “demand-side connect-and-manage.” This approach can reduce the likelihood of overbuilding energy generation plants, allocate risks to and encourage innovation from major data center companies, and accelerate data center grid interconnection. Moreover, our analysis supports a shift in basic assumptions of electricity law and a re-examination of the roles of regulators and markets in electricity systems.

Weather conditions leading to deadly wildfires in Türkiye, Cyprus and Greece made 10 times more likely due to climate change, Keeping et al., World Weather Attribution

In July 2025, Greece, Türkiye and Cyprus experienced one of the most devastating months of wildfires in recent years, fueled in Greece by a record heatwave above 45C, drought, and strong winds. To determine the role of climate change, the authors combine the observation-based estimates with climate models. The models on average show a stronger increase in likelihood and intensity than observed. This leads to an overall increase in vapor pressure deficit of a factor of about 13 and an increase in intensity of about 18% attributable to human-induced climate change. For the daily severity rating the overarching increase in likelihood due to climate change is a factor 10 and an increase in intensity of about 22%.

Generation Energy transition?, Civey, EON Foundation

The authors focus on the attitudes of the 18- to 29-year-old age group regarding attitudes to climate change and the energy transition. On behalf of the E.ON Foundation Civey has been continuously surveying 10,000 Germans aged 18 and over online since August 2022 on their attitudes around the energy transition, climate protection and transformation. The current analysis is divided into four thematic areas – Concerns, Finances, Attitudes and Energy – and highlights differences and similarities between young adults and older age groups. Not only statistical findings are presented, but also these are also classified. A final conclusion draws conclusions from this and makes recommendations for politics and society (Paraphrase of Google translate).

Youth Climate Literacy. A 2025 National Snapshot, The Aspen Institute Energy and Environment Program, The Aspen Institute

Teenagers do not feel confident about their understanding of climate change and solutions. 12% of teens feel they know “a lot” about the causes of climate change. 10% of teens feel they know “a lot” about the solutions to climate change. Only 54% of teens identified greenhouse gas emissions from human activity as the biggest contributor to climate change. Only 33% of teens see climate change as impacting the area where they live now. Teens overestimate the role of recycling in solutions. 57% identified recycling as having a large impact on climate change, higher than any other solution. Slightly over 40% of teens recognize that talking, learning, collaborating, and advocacy can have an impact on climate change.

Navigating Supply Chain Disruptions: How Firms Respond to Low Water Levels, Saskia Meuchelbock, Rethink GSC

The author examines how firms adjust to temporary infrastructure disruptions, using a period of exceptionally low water levels on European inland waterways as a natural experiment. Linking monthly trade and transport data for Germany, she shows that firms relying on inland shipping for imports reduced the value, variety, and geographic scope of their exports. These effects were strongest among firms with limited transport diversification and cannot be explained by demand shocks or export constraints, highlighting the role of supply bottlenecks. Affected firms adapted by persistently switching to alternative transport modes, showing that even short-lived shocks can induce lasting behavioral change.

Clean Investment Monitor: Q2 2025 Update, Rhodium Group

In the second quarter of 2025, clean energy and transportation investment in the United States totaled $68 billion, a 0.3% decrease from the previous quarter, but a 1% increase from the same period in 2024. Clean investment accounted for 4.8% of total private investment in structures, equipment, and durable consumer goods. Investment activity was driven primarily by retail consumer purchases and installations of clean technology (zero-emission vehicles, heat pumps, distributed generation and storage), which accounted for just over half of the total at $34 billion. The pipeline of new project announcements contracted across segments. Utility-scale clean electricity announcements totaled $21 billion, mostly in solar and storage, down 51% relative to the previous quarter. New industrial decarbonization announcements stood at $2 billion, a 17% decline quarter-on-quarter and a 38% decline compared to Q2 2024.

Reclaiming Our Future: A Climate Jobs Agenda for the International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers, Cunningham et al., The International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers and The Climate Jobs Institute at Cornell University’s ILR School

Fortunately, the International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers (IAM( has been proactive in addressing the climate crisis. IAM delegates passed climate resolutions at the union’s 2016 and 2022 conventions, calling on the union to take leadership in making industry more sustainable, creating high-quality union jobs, and expanding opportunities for members to gain the skills needed to thrive in a climate-safe economy. This report is a result of those efforts. Combating climate change is a massive undertaking, but the IAM is poised to push for solutions that protect our planet while building union power. In order to prepare for the clean energy economy of the future, the IAM must understand the threats climate change poses to members and prepare for how it will affect core industries and geographies. The IAM must also have a plan to advocate for climate action that creates good, union jobs while preserving a bright future for the next generation.

Emissions of Greenhouse Gases in the Agriculture Sector, Congressional Budget Office

The agriculture sector emits greenhouse gases (GHGs) through its two main activities: producing crops and managing livestock (including poultry). The sector is the nation’s leading source of emissions of GHGs other than carbon dioxide (CO2 ). The accumulation of GHGs in the atmosphere contributes to climate change, which affects the economy and the federal budget. Agriculture accounts for about 10 percent of total U.S. GHG emissions (measured by their capacity to trap atmospheric heat), including nearly half of the nation’s total non-CO2 emissions. Agricultural GHG emissions are mainly nitrous oxide and methane, which, per ton emitted, are much more potent than CO2 in trapping atmospheric heat. Agriculture accounts for nearly all U.S. emissions of nitrous oxide and almost half of emitted methane. CBO projects that in the coming decades, GHG emissions from agriculture will increase by about a quarter of a percent each year. Actual GHG emissions will vary depending on whether future demand for U.S. agricultural production is greater or less than projected and on the pace at which agricultural technologies that would reduce emissions are developed and adopted.

Climate change in the property sector: A cross-market update (UK focused), Landmark Information Group

The authors explore the progress being made across the industry in building climate resilience, while also highlighting the key barriers that continue to slow momentum. The authors spoke to 150 senior property professionals, including estate agents, residential conveyancers, and mortgage lenders, each with decades of experience navigating the UK property landscape to understand how far the sector has come in addressing climate-related risks, and what is still standing in the way. 99% of property professionals say their clients are concerned to some degree with the evolving / future potential threat of climate change when buying a property. On average, property professionals are advising 52% of their clients on potential climate change risks to their property (50% in 2024). 93% of property professionals say that recent climate events have impacted the way they advise clients to think about climate related risks and how they could affect their home.

Enhancing Europe’s land carbon sink, European Environment Agency

The land use, land use change and forestry (LULUCF) sector is the only sector that removes carbon on a large scale, and it has become a key component of EU and Member State policymaking in the transition to a climate neutral economy by 2050. A wide variety of options is available to protect carbon stocks and to enhance removals in all land categories. Applied at scale, these options can jointly have a significant climate change mitigation potential and offer many co-benefits to society. In view of the increasing effects from climate change on terrestrial ecosystems, increasing their resilience is a prerequisite for effective mitigation action in the sector. Between 2014-2023, the EU's average net annual carbon sink was 30% smaller compared to the decade before, largely due to dynamics in forest land. In 2023, the EU LULUCF sector provided a net carbon sink of 198 MtCO2 e, relative to around 6% of EU gross emissions from other sectors.

Accelerating Social Change in Response to the Climate and Ecological Crisis, Spaiser et al., School of Politics and International Studies, University of Leeds

The authors discuss pathways forward in response to the climate and ecological crisis that the UK and the whole world is facing. This co-produced policy brief is a result of the conversations at a collective learning event held in June 2025 and the collaborative work afterwards.

Climate Experts’ Review of the DOE Climate Working Group Report, Dressler et al., Unassigned

On behalf of the more than 85 experts who contributed to the Climate Experts’ Review of the DOE Climate Working Group Report, we are writing to submit this compendium of public comments on the Climate Working Group (CWG) Report entitled A Critical Review of Impacts of Greenhouse Gas Emissions on the U.S. Climate, under docket number DOE-HQ-2035-0207. As explained at length in these comments, the CWG report currently fails to adequately represent the scientific understanding of climate change. DOE must subject the CWG report to unbiased, robust, and transparent peer review under the Information Quality Act and other federal requirements. Accordingly, it will require very substantial revision before it can be relied upon by any federal agency or other entity. About New Research

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This video includes personal musings and conclusions of the creator climate scientist Dr. Adam Levy. It is presented to our readers as an informed perspective. Please see video description for references (if any).

As the northern hemisphere experiences summer, we have also been experiencing the disastrous impacts of climate change - extreme weather like heatwaves droughts; records being smashed time and time again; and wildfires raging through our cities and our forests. But despite the fact that we're seeing unprecedented conditions, some are still claiming that all this can be explained by simply saying "It's Called Summer". But this form of climate denial - that today's conditions are normal summer, rather than a symptom of a changed climate - is surprisingly widespread... despite also being nonsensical. In this video, I get into why this kind of argument holds back climate action.

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Is global warming actually happening?

Multiple indicators show Earth is warming rapidly.

Global surface temperatures are now about 1.47°C (2.65°F) above the 19th century average, with the past ten years the warmest on record. Surface temperatures are measured by thousands of land weather stations and weather balloons, along with ships, ocean buoys, and satellite measurements. Oceans, which absorb over 90% of excess heat, hit record highs in 2024, making the last decade the warmest since the 1800s.

Sea levels are rising at the fastest rate in 2,500 years, driven by melting ice sheets and the thermal expansion of seawater. Polar regions are losing ice, while heatwaves and droughts are becoming more intense and frequent.

Atmospheric CO2 reached 428 ppm in July 2025, or 50% higher than preindustrial levels, before large-scale fossil fuel use. Evidence from air, land, oceans, and ice all point to global warming, with human activity as the primary cause.

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CarbonBrief ‘Multi-year’ droughts have become more frequent, drier and hotter over past 40 years

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This is a re-post from And Then There's Physics

In 2020, a large group of scientists published a paper in which they used multiple lines of evidence to assess Earth’s climate sensitivity. The lines of evidence they used were the physical processes that determine climate sensitivity, the historical climate record, and the paleoclimate record. The key results were:

• The 66% range is 2.6–3.9 K for the Baseline calculation and remains within 2.3–4.5 K under robustness tests.
• the corresponding 5–95% ranges are 2.3–4.7 K, bounded by 2.0–5.7 K.
• all three lines of evidence are difficult to reconcile with an equilibrium climate sensitivity, characterised by an effective sensitivity S, below 2K.
• the paleoclimate evidence provides the strongest evidence against S > 4.5 K.

All of this seems quite reasonable. A likely range from just above 2K to about 4.5K, little evidence to support an equilibrium climate sensitivity below 2K, and evidence against it being above 4.5K.

Unsurprisingly, however, Nic Lewis has views. He has a published a response in which he objectively combines climate sensitivity evidence and finds that

[t]he estimates of long-term climate sensitivity are much lower and better constrained (median 2.16 °C, 17–83% range 1.75–2.7 °C, 5–95% range 1.55–3.2 °C)

and that

[t]his sensitivity to the assumptions employed implies that climate sensitivity remains difficult to ascertain, and that values between 1.5 °C and 2 °C are quite plausible.

As far as I can tell, the differences are mostly due to different choices about the various parameters. Given that different choices of values can give such large variations in the results, does seem to suggest that climate sensitivity remains difficult to ascertain. However, it’s less clear that values between 1.5 °C and 2 °C are quite plausible, although it does depend on what one means by plausible.

I realise that one can select a set of potentially plausible parameters that will give values between 1.5°C and 2°C, but given that we’ve already warmed by ~1.5oC, that the planetary energy imbalance has recently been above 1 Wm-2, and that we haven’t yet reached in change in anthropogenic forcing equivalent to a doubling of atmospheric CO2, values in this range don’t seem particularly plausible.

I do like Nic Lewis’s work and I have learned quite a lot by working through some of it. However, I do think a weakness is a reluctance to properly interrogate why his work seems to suggest values for climate sensitivity that are lower than many other experts would regard as plausible.

I think there’s a tendency to think that if you’ve justified all your assumptions, carefully chosen your parameters, and ensured that the methodology is robust, that the results should then stand. In my view, it’s always worth sanity checking the results. I realise that you have to be careful of not introducing additional biases, but you also have to be careful of trusting a result simply because the analysis is supposedly objective.

A listing of 29 news and opinion articles we found interesting and shared on social media during the past week: Sun, August 24, 2025 thru Sat, August 30, 2025. Stories we promoted this week, by category:

Climate Policy and Politics (9 articles)

• Trump Administration Orders Work Halted on Wind Farm That Is Nearly Built "The order to stop construction on Revolution Wind off the coast of Rhode Island is part of a campaign against renewable energy." Climate, New York Times, Lisa Friedman, Brad Plumer & Maxine Joselow, Aug 22, 2025.
• Trump's bogus claim about a 'climate religion` is a pathetic political dodge TheHill.com Just In, Lisa H. Sideris, Aug 23, 2025.
• Don`t let Donald Trump undermine your faith in the climate fight | Gina McCarthy The president’s fossil-fuel obsession can’t stop global progress, writes the former Environmental Protection Agency head The Guardian, Gina McCarthy, Aug 24, 2025.
• Scientists give harsh grades to Trump administration work aimed at undoing a key climate finding Phys.org, Seth Borenstein and Michael Phillis, Aug 26, 2025.
• 20 years after Katrina, New Orleans’ levees are sinking and short on money Grist, Jake Bittle, Aug 27, 2025.
• Why the US government is trying to revive the climate change `debate` The Department of Energy is calling for "honest dialogue." It looks a lot like a playbook from the past. Grist, Kate Yoder, Aug 27, 2025.
• Trump, With Tariffs and Threats, Tries to Strong-Arm Nations to Retreat on Climate Goals "The president has made no secret of his distaste for wind and solar in America. Now he’s taking his fossil fuel agenda overseas." Trump Administration, New York Times, Lisa Friedman, Aug 27, 2025.
• The Endangerment Finding: The Local Perspective Matters Right Now (Template Comment Letter Linked) Climate Law Blog, Amy Turner, Aug 29, 2025.
• Scientists breathe new life into climate website after shutdown under Trump Climate.gov, which went dark this summer, set to be revived by volunteers as climate.us with expanded mission Environment The Guardian, Eric Holthaus, Aug 30, 2025.

Climate Change Impacts (9 articles)

• The New American Inequality: The Cooled vs. the Cooked New York Times, Opinion by Jeff Goodell, Aug 20, 2025.
• World’s climate change crisis has tourists seeking ‘coolcations’ The Strits Times, Staff, Aug 23, 2025.
• Another pause? And then, there's physics, Ken Rice, Aug 24, 2025.
• Vietnam plans mass evacuation, China’s Sanya shuts as Typhoon Kajiki intensifies CNN, Reuters, Aug 24, 2025.
• Record-breaking rainfall flooded Charleston this weekend. What’s next for hurricane season? Charleston News, Post & Courier, Kailey Cota, Aug 24, 2025.
• Wildfire in Oregon destroys 4 homes, threatens thousands more, as Northern California blaze prompts evacuations CNN Weather, AP, Aug 25, 2025.
• Twenty Years After Hurricane Katrina, Experts Fear Trump’s Cuts Will End in a Repeat Catastrophe "Two decades after Hurricane Katrina devastated New Orleans, the Trump administration is on a mission to defund the agency dedicated to disaster response and recovery." Today's Climate, Inside Climate News, Kiley Price, Aug 26, 2025.
• Guest post: Is climate change making UK droughts worse? The year 2025 has seen exceptionally dry conditions in many parts of the UK. Carbon Brief, Guest Authors: Jamie Hannaford, Lucy Barker, Dr Wilson Chan and Steve Turner, Aug 26, 2025.
• Collapse of critical Atlantic current is no longer low-likelihood, study finds "Scientists say ‘shocking’ discovery shows rapid cuts in carbon emissions are needed to avoid catastrophic fallout" Environment, The Guardian, Damian Carrington, Aug 28, 2025.

Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation (3 articles)

• Despite Everything, US Solar Manufacturing Continues to Power Up "T1 Energy of Texas is among the companies that aim to build supply chains for the renewable energy source in this country and reduce dependence on Asian producers." Clean Energy, Inside Climate News, Dan Gearino & Arcelia Martin, Aug 27, 2025.
• To Handle Data Centers, the Electricity System May Need New Rules. Here Is a Proposal "Legal scholars suggest revisiting a core tenet of electricity regulations and taking cues from how officials manage scarce resources such as water in the West. ' Inside Clean Energy, Inside Climate News, Dan Gearino, Aug 28, 2025.
• 5 easy ways college students — and everyone else — can practice sustainability Health, CNN, Gina Park, Aug 29, 2025 .

Climate Education and Communication (2 articles)

• Are universities doing enough to address climate change? Latin America, University World News,, Commentary by Mariana Ceci de França e Silva, Neri de Barros Almeida & Marcelo Knobel , Aug 22, 2025.
• The Future of Climate Change Communication Within Social Media doctorclimatechange.com blog, Stewart Cohen aka doctorclimatechange, Aug 27, 2025.

Climate Law and Justice (1 article)

• 15 Children in Wisconsin File the Latest Youth Lawsuit Citing Climate Dangers The suit, which follows legal victories in Montana and Hawaii, alleges violations of the state constitution and says Wisconsin law impedes a transition to renewable energy, locking in harmful air pollutants and greenhouse gas emissions from fossil fuel power plants. Inside Climate News, Dana Drugmand, Aug 22, 2025.

Climate Science and Research (1 article)

• Skeptical Science New Research for Week #35 2025 Skeptical Science, Doug Bostrom & Marc Kodack, Aug 28, 2025.

Public Misunderstandings about Climate Science (1 article)

• AI `Slop` Websites Are Publishing Climate Science Denial MSN hosted AI-generated content that cited non-existent climate experts and institutions. DeSmog, Joey Grostern, Aug 27, 2025.

Public Misunderstandings about Climate Solutions (1 article)

• Factcheck: 16 misleading myths about solar power Carbon Brief factchecks 16 of the most common myths about solar power. Carbon Brief, Carbon Brief Staff, Aug 28, 2025.

Miscellaneous (2 articles)

• 2025 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #34 A listing of 30 news and opinion articles we found interesting and shared on social media during the past week: Sun, August 17, 2025 thru Sat, August 23, 2025. Skeptical Science, Bärbel Winkler, John Hartz & Doug Bostrom, Aug 24, 2025.
• DeBriefed 29 August 2025: Record wildfires; Solar myths factchecked; Climate veteran on COP reform An essential guide to the week’s key developments relating to climate change. Carbon Brief, Carbon Brief Staff, Aug 29, 2025.

If you happen upon high quality climate-science and/or climate-myth busting articles from reliable sources while surfing the web, please feel free to submit them via this Google form so that we may share them widely. Thanks!

Open access notables

Evaluating IPCC Projections of Global Sea-Level Change From the Pre-Satellite Era, Törnqvist et al., Earth's Future Open Access 10.1029/2025ef006533

With an acceleration of global sea-level rise during the satellite altimetry era (since 1993) firmly established, it is now appropriate to examine sea-level projections made around the onset of this time period. Here we show that the mid-range projection from the Second Assessment Report of the IPCC (1995/1996) was strikingly close to what transpired over the next 30 years, with the magnitude of sea-level rise underestimated by only ∼1 cm. Projections of contributions from individual components were more variable, with a notable underestimation of dynamic mass loss from ice sheets. Nevertheless—and in view of the comparatively limited process understanding, modeling capabilities, and computational resources available three decades ago—these early attempts should inspire confidence in presently available global sea-level projections. Such multidecadal evaluations of past climate projections, as presented here for sea-level change, offer useful tests of past climate forecasts, and highlight the essential importance of continued climate monitoring.

Svalbard’s 2024 record summer: An early view of Arctic glacier meltdown?, Schuler et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences

A record-breaking melt season affected the Arctic glaciers of Svalbard in summer 2024 by a substantial margin. Across the entire archipelago, glacier melting corresponded to an anomaly of up to four SD and exceeded any previous observation. The pan-Svalbard mass loss in summer 2024 amounts to ~61.7 ± 11.1 Gt and corresponds to 1% of the total ice volume on Svalbard and is comparable to that of the Greenland ice sheet (55 ± 35 Gt), which occupies an area about 50 times larger. Altogether, Svalbard and other glacier regions surrounding the Barents Sea lost 102.1 ± 22.9 Gt of ice in a single year and contributed 0.27 ± 0.06 mm (of which 0.16 mm alone is due to Svalbard) to global sea-level, putting the circum-Barents region among the strongest contributors to global sea-level rise in 2024. Most of the 2024 glacier melt occurred during a 6-wk period of persistent atmospheric circulation pattern causing record-high air temperatures, an event with an extremely low recurrence interval under current climate conditions. However, future climate projections suggest that such temperature levels will become increasingly commonplace by the end of the 21st century, potentially even surpassing those of 2024. Svalbard’s summer of 2024 serves as a forecast for future glacier meltdown in the Arctic, offering a glimpse into conditions 70 y ahead.

Attribution of Changes in Canadian Precipitation, Kirchmeier-Young et al., Atmosphere-Ocean

Total precipitation has increased over Canada, annually and seasonally. However, the drivers of this change have not been formally diagnosed. Globally, while changes in total precipitation have been attributed to anthropogenic forcing at larger scales, attribution at sub-continental scales has thus far been very limited. We perform a detection and attribution analysis using an optimal fingerprinting approach based on estimating equations to compare the observed changes in Canadian precipitation against CMIP6-model-based estimates of externally forced signals. For Canada as a whole and Northern Canada specifically, an anthropogenic forcing signal is detected in the observations, annually and for six-month warm and cool seasons over 1959-2018. For Southern Canada, observed records are longer and attribution is more robust at the century scale (1904-2018), where the observed increase in annual precipitation is attributed to anthropogenic forcing. Understanding the dominant role of anthropogenic forcing through a formal attribution analysis increases our confidence in the characterization of both past and future changes in precipitation over Canada.

Extreme Sahelian Rainfall Continues to Rise Despite Stable Storm Frequency, Spät et al., Geophysical Research Letters

Over the past 40+ years, extreme rainfall in the Sahel has increased faster than the mean seasonal rainfall. From the early 1980s to the late 2000s, the changes can be explained by the fact that the strongest storms became more frequent, likely because of changes in wind patterns linked to temperature differences across the region, especially the enhanced warming of the Sahara. However, since the late 2000s, the number of strong storms has stopped increasing, as warming intensified in both the northern Sahara and equatorial Africa and changed the wind pattern. Despite this, extreme rainfall has kept increasing, possibly due to widespread higher moisture levels in the atmosphere, influenced by warming ocean waters in the tropical Atlantic and the Mediterranean.

Physics-Based Indicators for the Onset of an AMOC Collapse Under Climate Change, van Westen et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans

The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) is an important tipping element in the climate system. There is a large uncertainty whether the AMOC will start to collapse during the 21st century under future climate change, as this requires long climate model simulations which are not always available. Here, we analyze targeted climate model simulations done with the Community Earth System Model (CESM) with the aim to develop a physics-based indicator for the onset of an AMOC tipping event. This indicator is diagnosed from the surface buoyancy fluxes over the North Atlantic Ocean and is performing successfully under quasi-equilibrium freshwater forcing, freshwater pulse forcing, climate change scenarios, and for different climate models. An analysis consisting of 25 different climate models shows that the AMOC could begin to collapse by 2063 (from 2026 to 2095, 25th to 57th percentiles) under an intermediate emission scenario (SSP2-4.5), or by 2055 (from 2023 to 2076, 25th to 75th percentiles) under a high-end emission scenario (SSP5-8.5). When the AMOC collapses, the Northwestern European climate changes drastically and this will likely induce severe societal impacts.

From this week's government/NGO section:

Global climate change as a threat, Poushter et al., Pew Research Center

A median of 67% of adults across 25 nations say global climate change is a major threat to their country. Another 24% say it is a minor threat, and 9% say it is not a threat. In many of the high-income countries that were surveyed in both 2022 and 2025, the share of adults who see climate change as a major threat has decreased significantly. Majorities in all but three countries – Israel, Nigeria and the U.S. – see climate change as a major threat. Around eight-in-ten hold this view in Argentina, Brazil, France, Japan and South Korea. About a quarter of Israelis (24%) say climate change is not a threat – the largest share to take this stance across the countries surveyed. In the U.S., about a fifth of adults (19%) say the same.

Trump’s Unfolding Energy Crisis, Climate Power

Over 64,000 jobs have already been lost or stalled in the clean energy sector since Trump’s election. With rising energy demand driven by AI and extreme heat, gutting clean energy is already taking critical production offline and increasing costs for consumers. Americans across the nation are already seeing their utility costs skyrocket; the average family’s energy bill will increase by $130 annually by 2030 and $170 annually by 2035, with some states expected to see their bills rise by over $400 per year in the next decade. 154 articles in 68 journals by 870 contributing authors

Physical science of climate change, effects

A conceptual framework for understanding longwave cloud effects on climate sensitivity, Kluft et al., Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Open Access 10.5194/acp-25-9075-2025

Climate forcing due to future ozone changes: an intercomparison of metrics and methods, Collins et al., Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Open Access 10.5194/acp-25-9031-2025

Controls of the global overturning circulation of the ocean, Roquet et al., npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41612-025-01185-8

Energy Conservation in a Cooling and Contracting Thermosphere, Nowak et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres Open Access 10.1029/2024jd042513

Physics-Based Indicators for the Onset of an AMOC Collapse Under Climate Change, van Westen et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans Open Access 10.1029/2025jc022651

Quantifying Air–Sea Heat Fluxes over Southeast Asia and Their Response to Climate Change, Nguyen-Thanh et al., Journal of Climate 10.1175/jcli-d-24-0389.1

Observations of climate change, effects

Changes in Dry Season Length in Global Watersheds, Chen & Liu, International Journal of Climatology 10.1002/joc.70078

Emergence of autumn rainy season in Korea due to tropical cyclone influence, Kim et al., Atmospheric Research Open Access 10.1016/j.atmosres.2025.108340

Evaluating weather trends and forecasting with machine learning: Insights from maximum temperature, minimum temperature, and rainfall data in India, Guhan et al., Dynamics of Atmospheres and Oceans 10.1016/j.dynatmoce.2025.101562

Extreme Sahelian Rainfall Continues to Rise Despite Stable Storm Frequency, Spät et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2025gl115942

Local hourly trends in near-surface and land surface temperatures, Safieddine et al., Scientific Reports Open Access 10.1038/s41598-025-15731-0

Rise in heat related mortality in the United States, Narayanan & Keellings Keellings, PLOS Climate Open Access 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000610

State of Wildfires 2024–25, Kelley et al., Open Access 10.5194/essd-2025-483

Instrumentation & observational methods of climate change, effects

Early detection of climate change-induced shallow landslides with IoT-technology, Hofmann et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-025-02668-5

GIRAFE v1: a global climate data record for precipitation accompanied by a daily sampling uncertainty, Konrad et al., Earth System Science Data Open Access 10.5194/essd-17-4097-2025

Modeling, simulation & projection of climate change, effects

Exploring Global Temperature Oscillations Using a Generalized Linear Box Model, Fredriksen et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2024gl113994

Future Atlantification of the European Arctic limited under sustained global warming, De Rovere et al., Scientific Reports Open Access 10.1038/s41598-025-16161-8

Future Changes in Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Precipitation and Size in Convection-Permitting Regional Model Simulations, Forbis & Patricola, Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres Open Access 10.1029/2025jd043428

Impacts of Global Warming on Severe Drought in Northern Taiwan: A Future Projection Based on the Year 2021, Huang et al., International Journal of Climatology Open Access 10.1002/joc.70094

Poleward migration of western North Pacific tropical cyclones driven by genesis location shift under global warming in HighResMIP-PRIMAVERA models, Li et al., npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Open Access 10.1038/s41612-025-01194-7

 Projections of Lightning-Ignited Wildfire Risk in the Western United States, Kalashnikov et al., Earth's Future Open Access 10.1029/2025ef006108

Advancement of climate & climate effects modeling, simulation & projection

A Deep Learning Earth System Model for Efficient Simulation of the Observed Climate, Cresswell?Clay et al., AGU Advances Open Access 10.1029/2025av001706

An improved and extended parameterization of the CO2 15 µm cooling in the middle and upper atmosphere (CO2&cool&fort-1.0), López-Puertas et al., Geoscientific Model Development Open Access 10.5194/gmd-17-4401-2024

Heat Waves in Regional Climate Models: Three-Dimensional Insight and Links to Atmospheric Circulation Over Middle Europe, Plavcová et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2025gl115352

Uncertainty in projected changes of Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall by CMIP6 models, Sooraj et al., Atmospheric Research 10.1016/j.atmosres.2025.108424

Urban climate simulation for extreme heat events – A comparison between WRF and GEM, Marey et al., Urban Climate Open Access 10.1016/j.uclim.2025.102570

Cryosphere & climate change

An 85-year record of glacier change and refined projections for Kennicott and Root Glaciers, Alaska, Wells et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-025-62962-w

Brief communication: Representation of heat conduction into ice in marine ice shelf melt modelling, Wiskandt & Jourdain Jourdain, The Cryosphere Open Access 10.5194/tc-19-3253-2025

Calving front positions for Greenland outlet glaciers (2002–2021): a spatially extensive seasonal record and benchmark dataset for algorithm validation, Lu et al., Open Access 10.5194/essd-2025-304

Decades-Long Evolution of Post-Fire Permafrost Deformation Detected by InSAR: Insights From Chronosequence in North Yukon, Cao & Furuya, AGU Advances Open Access 10.1029/2025av001849

Future winters promise less snow, more rain. Nobody’s prepared, McDermott, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Open Access 10.1073/pnas.2520764122

Loss of accumulation zone exposes dark ice and drives increased ablation at Weißseespitze, Austria, Hartl et al., Open Access 10.5194/egusphere-2025-384

Non-temperature environmental drivers modulate warming-induced 21st-century permafrost degradation on the Tibetan Plateau, Ziteng et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-025-63032-x

Svalbard’s 2024 record summer: An early view of Arctic glacier meltdown?, Schuler et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Open Access pdf 10.1073/pnas.2503806122

The Seasonality of Greenland Iceberg Melt and Its Influences on Fjord Properties and Dynamics, Kinne et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans 10.1029/2025jc022587

Sea level & climate change

Assessing the impact of climate change and glacier retreat on sea level rise, coastal ecosystems, and vulnerable communities, Pallikonda et al., Journal of Earth System Science 10.1007/s12040-025-02643-w

Connecting the Past and the Future to Build Regional Sea-Level Projections, Le Bars & Drijfhout, Earth's Future Open Access 10.1029/2024ef005623

Deep Ocean Steric Sea Level Change in the Subtropical Northwest Atlantic Ocean, Zilberman et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1029/2024gl114158

Evaluating IPCC Projections of Global Sea-Level Change From the Pre-Satellite Era, Törnqvist et al., Earth's Future Open Access 10.1029/2025ef006533

Paleoclimate & paleogeochemistry

A climate of conflict: How the little ice age sparked rebellions and revolutions across Europe, Kaniewski et al., Global and Planetary Change 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2025.105038

Biology & climate change, related geochemistry

Amazonian and Andean tree communities are not tracking current climate warming, Farfan-Rios et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Open Access 10.1073/pnas.2425619122

Anticipating ecological transformation in the Coorong, Australia: Capacities and knowledge for upstream engagement, Alexandra, Environmental Science & Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.envsci.2025.104147

Assessing the importance of prey, climate change, and human footprint for modeling current and future distribution of Leopardus guigna, Zamora?Cornejo et al., Conservation Biology 10.1111/cobi.70135

Background climate determines the response of spring leaf-out to climate change—Results from a national-scale twig-cutting experiment, Wang et al., Journal of Ecology 10.1111/1365-2745.70142

Climate Change Impacts on the Phenology of Laurentian Great Lakes Fishes, Piczak et al., Global Change Biology Open Access 10.1111/gcb.70436

Climate Change Is Altering Ecosystem Water Use Efficiency in Water-Limited Ecosystems, Green et al., Global Change Biology 10.1111/gcb.70459

Climate-driven spread of giant hogweed [Heracleum mantegazzianum (Sommier & Levier) in Turkey: assessing future invasion risks under CMIP6 climate projections, Farooq, BMC Plant Biology Open Access 10.1186/s12870-025-07145-x

Combining Niche Breadth to Predict the Current and Future Distribution of Leguminosae Under Climate Change on the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau, Chai et al., Ecology and Evolution Open Access 10.1002/ece3.71895

Decreasing foraminiferal flux in response to ongoing climate change in the Santa Barbara Basin, California, Havard et al., Biogeosciences Open Access 10.5194/bg-22-4035-2025

Drivers of Phytoplankton Communities Across Thermal Regimes and Marine Heatwaves in the U.S. Northeast Shelf, Cirivello et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans Open Access 10.1029/2024jc022029

Future Projections of Biodiversity Under Global Change Need to Include Genetic Diversity, Henry, Global Change Biology Open Access 10.1111/gcb.70477

Global thermal tolerance compilation for freshwater invertebrates and fish, Bayat et al., Scientific Data Open Access 10.1038/s41597-025-05832-w

Global warming reduces the carrying capacity of the tallest angiosperm species (Eucalyptus regnans), Trouvé et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-025-62535-x

Human Pressures Drive Global Mammalian Species Richness Loss and Community Change, Schooler & Belant, Diversity and Distributions Open Access 10.1111/ddi.70076

Human-Impacted Natural Ecosystems Drive Climate Warming, Mander et al., Global Change Biology Open Access 10.1111/gcb.70449

Impacts of Changing Winters on Lake Ecosystems Will Increase With Latitude, Ozersky et al., Ecology Letters Open Access 10.1111/ele.70200

Increasing constraint of aridity on tree intrinsic water use efficiency, Wang et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-025-62845-0

Integrating multi-level approaches to assess blue mussel (Mytilus spp.) responses to short-term temperature and salinity changes, Guinle et al., Marine Environmental Research Open Access 10.1016/j.marenvres.2025.107436

Intensified Aridity Hinders Soil Microbes From Improving Their Nitrogen Use Efficiency, Yang et al., Global Change Biology 10.1111/gcb.70453

Microbes Under Climate Refugia: Equable Subcommunity Rank Dynamics in Large-River Deltaic Estuaries, Liu et al., Ecology and Evolution Open Access 10.1002/ece3.72014

Nyinggulu Reef at Risk: Thermal Anomalies, Coral Mortality, and the Erosion of Resilience, Quigley, Global Change Biology 10.1111/gcb.70437

Ocean acidification impairs growth and induces oxidative stress in the macroalgae Ulva fasciata and Petalonia fascia, de Freitas et al., Marine Environmental Research 10.1016/j.marenvres.2025.107429

Outlasting the Heat: Collapse of Herbivorous Fish Control of Invasive Algae During Marine Heatwaves, Brijs et al., Global Change Biology Open Access 10.1111/gcb.70438

Population Decline for Plants in the California Floristic Province: Does Demography or Geography Determine Climate Change Vulnerability?, Backus et al., Diversity and Distributions Open Access 10.1111/ddi.70067

Response of intertidal fucales to low-tide heat stress at their southern distributional limit, Pereira et al., Marine Environmental Research Open Access 10.1016/j.marenvres.2025.107433

Satellite mapping of emperor penguin habitat dispersal under climate extremes, Lin et al., Remote Sensing of Environment 10.1016/j.rse.2025.114984

Short-Term Management of Kelp Forests for Marine Heatwaves Requires Planning, Hopf et al., Conservation Letters Open Access 10.1111/conl.13130

Spatiotemporal Distribution Patterns and Conservation Priorities of Gymnosperms With Different Leaf Shapes in China Under Climate Change, Fu et al., Ecology and Evolution Open Access 10.1002/ece3.71980

Spiny rock lobster (Jasus edwardsii) responses to marine heatwave conditions in southern New Zealand, Gnanalingam et al., Marine Environmental Research Open Access 10.1016/j.marenvres.2025.107410

The influence of cross-generational warming on the juvenile development of a coral reef fish under ocean warming and acidification, Cane et al., Marine Environmental Research Open Access 10.1016/j.marenvres.2025.107451

Trait Plasticity and Warming Vulnerability in a Structurally Diverse Seagrass Ecosystem, Lawrence, Ecology and Evolution Open Access 10.1002/ece3.72011

Unraveling Nonlinear Interactions: A DPSIR-Based Conceptual Model for Synergistic Impacts of Climate Change and Human Activities on Coastal Blue Carbon Ecosystems, Duan et al., Global Change Biology 10.1111/gcb.70432

Warming aggravates physiological drought in Betula platyphylla during the winter–spring transitional period in Greater Khingan Mountains, Li et al., Dendrochronologia 10.1016/j.dendro.2025.126375

GHG sources & sinks, flux, related geochemistry

Evaluating the Effectiveness of Forest-to-Bog Restoration on Carbon Sequestration, Water Chemistry, and Biodiversity in Irish and British Peatlands, Fundira et al., WIREs Climate Change Open Access 10.1002/wcc.70016

Global decarbonization corresponding with unseasonal land cover change, HE et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-025-63144-4

Global Sensitivity Analysis of the Future Land Carbon Sink, Deepak et al., Atmosphere Open Access 10.1080/07055900.2025.2540430

Inferring methane emissions from African livestock by fusing drone, tower, and satellite data, van Hove et al., Biogeosciences Open Access pdf 10.5194/bg-22-4163-2025

Lignin is an overlooked methane source in anoxic ecosystems, , Nature Geoscience 10.1038/s41561-025-01767-4

Potential buffering capacity of naturally distributed carbonate minerals against future rises in atmospheric CO2 and coastal acidification: the Yellow Sea and three major estuaries in China, Shi et al., Marine Environmental Research 10.1016/j.marenvres.2025.107392

Soil CO2 and CH4 effluxes in powerline rights-of-way and their adjacent forests, Harel et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology Open Access 10.1016/j.agrformet.2025.110801

Spatial and temporal variations of gross primary production simulated by land surface model BCC&AVIM2.0, Li et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2023.02.001

Variability and uncertainty in net ecosystem carbon exchange modeling: Systematic estimates at global flux sites via ensemble machine learning, Wang et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 10.1016/j.agrformet.2025.110784

CO2 capture, sequestration science & engineering

A comprehensive review of the physicochemical properties and performance of novel carbon-based adsorbents for CO2 capture, Karimi & Ghaemi, Environmental Science and Pollution Research 10.1007/s11356-025-36803-8

Larger rock extraction sites could improve the efficiency of enhanced rock weathering in the United Kingdom, Madankan et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-025-02656-9

Public preferences for local carbon capture and utilization implementation: A French-German comparison, Schomakers et al., Energy Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.enpol.2025.114781

Decarbonization

“Do you think that coal will finish?”: The (Im)possibilities of living with and without coal in a central Indian coalfield, Krishnan et al., Energy Research & Social Science Open Access 10.1016/j.erss.2025.104304

A database for identifying and tracking renewable energy embodied in global trade, Yang et al., Nature Sustainability 10.1038/s41893-025-01614-9

Annoyance and memory performance in the presence of wind turbine sound, Garcia-Guerrero et al., Journal of Environmental Psychology Open Access 10.1016/j.jenvp.2025.102653

Dynamic sustainability assessment of critical mineral resources for China's EV industry: A multi-national niche and grey model approach, Guo & Zou, Energy Policy 10.1016/j.enpol.2025.114837

How flexible is the German biogas sector? Stakeholder acceptance of flexible feeding options to support better system integration, Herbes & Apfel, Energy Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.enpol.2025.114795

Invisible hands in energy transitions: installers in the European post-industrial cities of Gothenburg and Rotterdam, van Tuijl et al., Energy Research & Social Science Open Access 10.1016/j.erss.2025.104290

Navigating energy transition solutions for climate targets with minerals constraint, Wei et al., Nature Climate Change 10.1038/s41558-025-02373-3

Sustainable ethanol production: CO2 emission analysis and feedstock strategies through life cycle assessment, Kumar & Sinha, Energy for Sustainable Development 10.1016/j.esd.2025.101775

Aerosols

Aerosols drive the missed global brightening recently in ERA5 and ERAI over Japan, Gao et al., Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society 10.1002/qj.70011

Response of PM2.5 concentration to climate variability and climate change prediction in China, Li et al., Journal of Atmospheric and Solar 10.1016/j.jastp.2025.106588

Shoreline wave breaking strongly enhances the coastal sea spray aerosol population: Climate and air quality implications, Zhou et al., Science Advances 10.1126/sciadv.adw0343

Climate change communications & cognition

Climate Change Information Seeking: A Scoping Review, Zhang et al., Journal of Environmental Psychology Open Access 10.1016/j.jenvp.2025.102742

Downplaying extreme heat: global imaginaries of ‘relative invulnerability’ and ‘common sense’ adaptation, Sou, Climate and Development Open Access 10.1080/17565529.2025.2546377

Extreme Weather and Climate Change Attitudes: Limited Partisan Motivated Reasoning in Response to Sweden’s 2018 Heatwave, Linde & Matti, Journal of Environmental Psychology Open Access 10.1016/j.jenvp.2025.102743

Finite pool of worry and emotions in climate change tweets during COVID-19, Smirnov et al., Journal of Environmental Psychology 10.1016/j.jenvp.2025.102728

Personal actions or systemic solutions: How the focus of the conversation influences willingness to talk about environmental issues, Allen & Hooker Tang Shen Buswell Kahalas Perley Qi Arora Mahmoudi-Aznaveh Laika Kuang Lenferink Arora Verbruggen Choi Cheong Smeralda Liang Rapp Kimura , The Encyclopedia of Adulthood and Aging Open Access 10.1002/9781118521373.wbeaa117

Regional dynamics of public attitudes toward climate change policy, regulatory strategies, and the energy transition in the United States, Ayinla et al., Energy Research & Social Science 10.1016/j.erss.2025.104291

The complaining but competent confronter: An experimental examination of the social costs and benefits related to interpersonal confrontations in climate change conversations, Klaperski-van der Wal et al., Journal of Environmental Psychology Open Access 10.1016/j.jenvp.2025.102738

The lasting effect of the Romantic view of nature: How it influences perceptions of risk and the support of symbolic actions against climate change, Siegrist & Berthold, Risk Analysis Open Access 10.1111/risa.17672

The public’s views on climate policies in seven large global south countries, Carson et al., Nature Climate Change Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41558-025-02389-9

Understanding Underlying Moral Values and Language Use of Climate Change Attitudes on X (formerly Twitter) and Weibo, Song et al., Journal of Environmental Psychology 10.1016/j.jenvp.2025.102736

“I have no future” - the critical need to counter climate doomism, Stuart, Environmental Sociology 10.1080/23251042.2025.2552388

Agronomy, animal husbundry, food production & climate change

Climate-smart biofuel policy as a pathway to decarbonize agriculture, Khanna et al., Science 10.1126/science.adw6739

Climate-Smart Agriculture Adoption and Food Security in Sub-Saharan Africa: A Systematic Review, Yiridomoh et al., Climate Resilience and Sustainability Open Access 10.1002/cli2.70017

Co-production of knowledge on climate change, its effects, and adaptation measures: A gender-responsive qualitative study of smallholder farmers, Bwalya & Mwanza, PLOS Climate Open Access 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000531

Gender-group membership intersectionality and determinants of indigenous climate adaptation of smallholder farmers for climate risk management in northern Ghana, Guodaar, Climate Risk Management Open Access 10.1016/j.crm.2025.100737

Genetic origins and climate-induced erosion in economically important Asian walnuts, Fan et al., Conservation Biology Open Access 10.1111/cobi.70125

Modeling biochar effects on soil organic carbon on croplands in a microbial decomposition model (MIMICS-BC&v1.0), Han et al., Geoscientific Model Development Open Access 10.5194/gmd-17-4871-2024

Rising Heat, Rising Risks: Understanding the Nexus of Marine Heatwaves, Fishing Dependence, and Vulnerability to Coastal Communities, Dowd et al., Global Change Biology 10.1111/gcb.70454

Scientific meetings debate the effect of climate change on future food production, , Nature Open Access 10.1038/d41586-025-02534-6

Hydrology, hydrometeorology & climate change

Attribution of Changes in Canadian Precipitation, Kirchmeier-Young et al., Atmosphere Open Access 10.1080/07055900.2025.2545849

Changes in Dry Season Length in Global Watersheds, Chen & Liu, International Journal of Climatology 10.1002/joc.70078

Divergent Spatiotemporal Patterns and Climate Responses of Lateral and Internal Lake Drainage in the Northern Permafrost Region, Yang et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2025gl117233

Changes in Dry Season Length in Global Watersheds, Chen & Liu, International Journal of Climatology 10.1002/joc.70078

Emergence of autumn rainy season in Korea due to tropical cyclone influence, Kim et al., Atmospheric Research Open Access 10.1016/j.atmosres.2025.108340

Evaluating weather trends and forecasting with machine learning: Insights from maximum temperature, minimum temperature, and rainfall data in India, Guhan et al., Dynamics of Atmospheres and Oceans 10.1016/j.dynatmoce.2025.101562

Extreme Sahelian Rainfall Continues to Rise Despite Stable Storm Frequency, Spät et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2025gl115942

Rise in heat related mortality in the United States, Narayanan & Keellings Keellings, PLOS Climate Open Access 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000610

State of Wildfires 2024–25, Kelley et al., Open Access 10.5194/essd-2025-483

Emergence of autumn rainy season in Korea due to tropical cyclone influence, Kim et al., Atmospheric Research Open Access 10.1016/j.atmosres.2025.108340

Producing Hydrological Projections Under Climate Change: A Groundwater-Inclusive Practical Guide, Mourot et al., Earth's Future Open Access 10.1029/2025ef006316

Soil Moisture Dynamics in South America: A Multi-Dataset Analysis From 1990 to 2020, Saito et al., International Journal of Climatology 10.1002/joc.70047

The future intensification of hydrological extremes and whiplashes in the contiguous United States increase community vulnerability, Maharjan et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-025-02672-9

Warming climate and water withdrawals threaten river flow connectivity in China, Gou et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Open Access 10.1073/pnas.2421046122

Climate change economics

Roll with the punches: Climate change regulation and short-term financing, Wang, Energy Policy 10.1016/j.enpol.2025.114805

Climate change mitigation public policy research

Climate action close to home: The role of public attitudes and policy responses in reducing greenhouse gas emissions, Ebner et al., Energy Research & Social Science Open Access 10.1016/j.erss.2025.104264

Conceptualizing supply- and demand-side climate change mitigation: A typology and new research directions, Pichler et al., Energy Research & Social Science Open Access 10.1016/j.erss.2025.104225

Energy transition and equity: Quantifying pathways to building decarbonization based on notions of fairness, De Simone et al., Energy Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.enpol.2025.114798

Forest carbon program enrollment in Pennsylvania falls below survey predictions, Weber et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-025-02657-8

Simulation-based analysis of country-specific mitigation strategies to decarbonize the passenger car fleet: A comparison between Germany, Poland, and Norway, Ginster et al., Journal of Industrial Ecology Open Access 10.1111/jiec.70089

The impact of electricity and fossil fuel prices on electric vehicle new registrations in the European Union, Kucharski et al., Energy Policy 10.1016/j.enpol.2025.114842

The public’s views on climate policies in seven large global south countries, Carson et al., Nature Climate Change Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41558-025-02389-9

Climate change adaptation & adaptation public policy research

Assessing the impact of climate change and glacier retreat on sea level rise, coastal ecosystems, and vulnerable communities, Pallikonda et al., Journal of Earth System Science 10.1007/s12040-025-02643-w

Climate change impacts on roadways, Sias et al., Nature Reviews Earth & Environment 10.1038/s43017-025-00711-9

Cognitive bias in perceived concern with rainfall: Implications for climate adaptation, Skog et al., Journal of Environmental Psychology Open Access 10.1016/j.jenvp.2025.102737

Drivers and barriers to municipal climate change adaptation: a comparative analysis of selected measures and different implementation stages, Otto et al., Journal of Environmental Studies and Sciences Open Access 10.1007/s13412-025-01049-w

Future winters promise less snow, more rain. Nobody’s prepared, McDermott, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Open Access 10.1073/pnas.2520764122

Impact of extreme climates on sustainable cooling: A case study of a subtropical office building, Yu et al., Urban Climate 10.1016/j.uclim.2025.102583

Navigating justice tensions in managed retreat, Bower et al., Environmental Science & Policy 10.1016/j.envsci.2025.104191

Risk Storylines: A Community-Led Discussion between Disaster and Climate Science, Cocuccioni et al., Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 10.1175/bams-d-25-0155.1

Scenario-dependent discounting for climate change adaptation decisions for infrastructure, Nasr et al., Climate Policy 10.1080/14693062.2025.2549563

Climate change impacts on human health

Extreme heat preparedness and coping among older adults: A rapid review, Doherty et al., PLOS Climate Open Access 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000689

Health: The missing metric in climate ambition: The case for health-inclusive NDCs – ambitious climate action to save lives, Cresto Aleina & Beagley, PLOS Climate Open Access 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000694

Long-term impacts of heatwaves on accelerated ageing, Chen et al., Nature Climate Change 10.1038/s41558-025-02407-w

Medical expenditures under climate change and SSP-informed physiological and socioeconomic scenarios in China, Zhu et al., Global Environmental Change 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103052

Rise in heat related mortality in the United States, Narayanan & Keellings Keellings, PLOS Climate Open Access 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000610

Warming climate and hot cities foster cool solutions in China, Gronwald & Lichtfouse, Environmental Chemistry Letters 10.1007/s10311-025-01872-1

Climate change impacts on human culture

Environmental Impact and Carbon Emissions of Sport Events: The Significance of Scope 3, Bae & McCullough, WIREs Climate Change Open Access 10.1002/wcc.70017

Other

The ClimateHack: How tech entrepreneurship shapes climate action, Bialski et al., Environmental Science & Policy 10.1016/j.envsci.2025.104184

Who is Imaged as Being Related to Climate Change? Localization and Individualization of Human Visual Images in China Search Engine, Su et al., Environmental Communication 10.1080/17524032.2025.2544563

Informed opinion, nudges & major initiatives

Anticipating ecological transformation in the Coorong, Australia: Capacities and knowledge for upstream engagement, Alexandra, Environmental Science & Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.envsci.2025.104147

Climate models need more frequent releases of input data — here’s how to do it, Naik et al., Nature 10.1038/d41586-025-02642-3

Future winters promise less snow, more rain. Nobody’s prepared, McDermott, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Open Access 10.1073/pnas.2520764122

NASA’s Earth-observing satellites are crucial — commercial missions cannot replace them, Wood, Nature 10.1038/d41586-025-02685-6

Securing climate justice in the courtroom, Nogrady, Nature 10.1038/d41586-025-02623-6

Articles/Reports from Agencies and Non-Governmental Organizations Addressing Aspects of Climate Change

Trump’s Unfolding Energy Crisis, Climate Power

Over 64,000 jobs have already been lost or stalled in the clean energy sector since Trump’s election. With rising energy demand driven by AI and extreme heat, gutting clean energy is already taking critical production offline and increasing costs for consumers. Americans across the nation are already seeing their utility costs skyrocket; the average family’s energy bill will increase by $130 annually by 2030 and $170 annually by 2035, with some states expected to see their bills rise by over $400 per year in the next decade.

The Demand Side Grid Support Program: An Assessment of Scale and Valu, Hledik et al., The Brattle Group

The Demand Side Grid Support (DSGS) program is a taxpayer funded program run by the California Energy Commission (CEC), designed to improve the reliability of the California power system by tapping into the capabilities of behind-the-meter (BTM) resources such as batteries. Sunrun and Tesla Energy commissioned The Brattle Group to evaluate the benefits and costs of DSGS Option 3, which is the participation option that accommodates battery storage. DSGS storage capacity has scaled quickly, and continued growth is expected. DSGS can provide significant net cost savings to California, especially in a suddenly inflationary environment.

Climate Change and Workplace Heat Stress, Flouris et al., World Health Organization and the World Meteorological Organization

The frequency and intensity of extreme heat events have risen sharply, increasing risks for both outdoor and indoor workers. Worker productivity drops by 2–3% for every degree above 20°C. Health risks include heatstroke, dehydration, kidney dysfunction, and neurological disorders, all of which hinder long-term health and economic security. Approximately half the global population suffers adverse consequences of high temperatures.

Global climate change as a threat, Poushter e tal., Pew Research Center

A median of 67% of adults across 25 nations say global climate change is a major threat to their country. Another 24% say it is a minor threat, and 9% say it is not a threat. In many of the high-income countries that were surveyed in both 2022 and 2025, the share of adults who see climate change as a major threat has decreased significantly. Majorities in all but three countries – Israel, Nigeria and the U.S. – see climate change as a major threat. Around eight-in-ten hold this view in Argentina, Brazil, France, Japan and South Korea. About a quarter of Israelis (24%) say climate change is not a threat – the largest share to take this stance across the countries surveyed. In the U.S., about a fifth of adults (19%) say the same.

Understanding data centre water use in England, techUK, techUK and the Environment Agency

The authors examine water use across England’s commercial data centres. They offer evidence into how data centres use and manage water amid the growing interest of the environmental footprint of digital infrastructure. 51% of surveyed sites use waterless cooling systems. 64% use less than 10,000 m³ of water per year – less than a typical leisure centre. 89% of sites either measure water use or deploy systems that do not require water for cooling. These findings challenge assumptions that data centres are inherently water-intensive. Instead, many facilities are already deploying efficient and climate-conscious solutions, and the industry is well-positioned to build on these efficiency gains in the coming years.

Coal is losing ground but not letting go: Structural inertia and the struggle to shift coal’s role in China’s power system, Qi Qin and Christine Shearer, The Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air nad the Global Energy Monitor

Although there were some signs of coal power slowing down in 2024 and 2025 has seen China’s clean energy boom meet a significant amount of power demand growth and lower CO2 emissions, coal power remains strong, with new and revived projects the highest in a decade. In H1 2025, 21 gigawatts (GW) of coal power were commissioned, the highest amount in the first half of the year since 2016, with projections for the full year exceeding 80 GW. This increase in commissions follows on the tail of the 2022-2023 coal power permitting surge that saw two new coal projects permitted per week, on average, totaling more than 100 GW of coal power approved per year. This trend will likely continue into 2026 and 2027, unless policy action is taken. Only 25 GW were permitted in H1 2025, yet new and revived projects came to 75 GW in H1 2025, the highest in a decade, and construction starts and restarts reached 46 GW, equivalent to the entire coal power capacity of South Korea.

SAFER (Strategic Adaptation for Emergency Resilience), Read et al., Climate Majority Project

Too often, they can’t picture it at all: an abstract story of invisible gases, distant timelines, and carbon footprints. Perhaps unsurprisingly, this ‘colourless, odourless’ representation of climate has struggled to inspire the scale of mobilisation that climate breakdown demands. To mobilise a majority, climate action must become something people can feel as well as understand – not just a different story, but a different way of living. Until recently, climate adaptation has been sidelined within the broader environmental movement, dismissed as a distraction or even a threat to urgent mitigation efforts. This rationale report equips advocates with narrative tools to challenge this mindset, reframing ecologically sound adaptation as a legitimate and foundational form of climate action.

DRAFT Cleveland-Elyria Metropolitan Statistical Area Comprehensive Climate Action Plan, Northeast Ohio Areawide Coordinating Agenc, Office of Sustainability and Climate Justice, City of Cleveland

The Comprehensive Climate Action Plan (CCAP) for the Cleveland-Elyria Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) includes a discussion of how the climate is already changing in and the expected changes through 2050; a review of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by sector and the measures the MSA can take to lower those emissions by 2050; a plan to help communities across the MSA implement these measures; and additional technical appendices

Delaware Residents’ Opinions on Climate Change, Responsive Management, Delaware Department of Natural Resources and Environmental Control, Division of Climate, Coastal and Energy

According to the latest survey, it is clear that climate change remains a top concern for a significant majority of Delawareans with many believing that it poses a serious threat that will harm future generations. The 2025 survey was administered to 1,520 Delaware residents via phone, text and online between Feb. 5 and Feb. 18, 2025. 74% of Delawareans remain very or somewhat concerned about climate change. 79% of Delawareans view climate change as a very or somewhat serious threat. 55% of Delawareans agree that they have experienced or observed local impacts of climate change. 58% of Delawareans believe that climate change will harm them personally, with an even larger share (79%) feeling the same about the harm it will cause future generations. 66% of Delawareans agree that Delaware can take more action to reduce climate change. 59% of Delawareans agree that they personally can take actions to reduce climate change.

Long-Term Load and DER Forecasting, Giraldez et al., Energy Systems Integration Group

Traditional methods, which allocate load and distributed energy resource (DER) growth based on proportional scaling of energy consumption, peak demand, or customer count, often fail to capture emerging geospatial adoption patterns. To accurately predict future energy demand requires explicit modeling of various demand-side modifiers to arrive at a net load forecast—including energy efficiency, solar, battery storage, economic growth, new customer business loads, electric vehicle charging, and building electrification. The authors outline key elements of a more geospatially and temporally granular, scenario-based approach, including (1) high-resolution, time-based (hourly) forecasts to capture the correlated effects of weather on demand, generation, and the nuances of DER behavior, and (2) methods that account for the underlying drivers of new sector demands and technology adoption, such as price signals and policy drivers. Scenario-based forecasting approaches better equip planners across grid planning entities and within planning departments to assess a range of possible futures and provide opportunities for greater coordination across planning entities to improve system-wide preparedness.

Taking Green Energy Projects to Court: NEPA Review and Court Challenges to Renewable Energy. Obstacles to Energy Infrastructure Project, Fraas et al., Resources for the Future

The National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) is often identified as a major obstacle to renewable energy projects locating on federal public lands or seeking federal funding. Once NEPA permits have been issued, a project may face additional delays if a federal agency’s decision is challenged in court. The authors examine the legal challenges faced by each project presenting the timeline in months for each case. Nearly a third of solar projects and half of wind projects completing NEPA environmental impact statement reviews faced court challenges. Almost all cases were filed after the government agencies had issued their permitting decisions. Although the courts typically ruled in the government agencies’ and project developers’ favor, the majority of cases were appealed. Court challenges in both federal and state courts caused or contributed to the termination of three projects, and six additional projects experienced significant delays as developers awaited court appeal decisions. Wind and solar projects that faced court challenges took an average of about 15 months longer to reach operational status than projects without court challenges.

How Long Does It Take? National Environmental Policy Act Timelines and Outcomes for Clean Energy Projects, Fraas et al., Resources for the Future

Growing demand for electricity and increased interest in affordable clean energy sources have created a rich economic opportunity for renewable energy developers in recent years. However, developers have long expressed frustration with the myriad obstacles to building new generation projects—in particular, selecting a site and securing the necessary leases and federal permits. The National Environmental Policy Act of 1969 (NEPA) establishes a process of environmental review that is compulsory for any major action, including the financing of solar and wind projects and construction of utility-scale renewable energy projects on federal lands. Its requirements are often mentioned as a major obstacle to renewable energy development, but does the NEPA process significantly delay renewable energy projects? Would adjustments to NEPA accelerate the clean energy transition? The authors examine the experience for solar, wind, and geothermal power plants that completed the NEPA process from 2009 to 2023 to provide new insights into these questions. Over this period, they found that the solar and wind projects subject to NEPA review account for only a small fraction of the total utility-scale renewable capacity brought online from 2010 through 2023. These renewable projects completed the formal NEPA process in less time than the average time for all project types across all federal agencies. Almost two-thirds of these solar and wind projects did so within one to two years; however, a number of the remaining projects required substantially longer.

The Procedural Hangover. How NEPA Litigation Obstructs Critical Projects, Trembath et al., The Breakthrough Institute

The authors examines the patterns of NEPA challenges brought by plaintiffs before both the District and Circuit Courts from 2013 to 2022. They compiled and reviewed an exhaustive list of over 2,000 District-level judicial opinions that referenced NEPA filed between 2013 and 2022 using the legal research platform Westlaw. Cases that did not contain substantive NEPA claims were excluded, and relevant variables were systematically coded for the remaining opinions. This rigorous screening process reduced the dataset to 1,435 District rulings. Subsequently, these judicial opinions were integrated with the corresponding dataset of Circuit court rulings that we compiled for a previous study.

The first evidence of a take-off in solar in Africa, Dave Jones, Ember

The author presents an analysis of Africa’s imports of solar panels from China. The Chinese solar panel export data gives valuable insights because it includes imports up to June 2025, at a monthly granularity, and for every country in the world. It is sourced from the General Administration of Customs of the People’s Republic of China (GACC), using the code 85414300 “Photovoltaic cells assembled in modules or made up into panels”. The value in USD is then converted into megawatts of solar panel capacity using average monthly PV module price. About New Research

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This is a re-post from And Then There's Physics

It seems that a slowdown in the melting of Arctic sea ice is now being used to suggest that climate science is melting. This is very silly and is remininsence of the claims of a pause in global warming that dominated much of the discourse in the 2010s.

Arctic sea ice is a small part of the climate system and it’s well known that variability can easily mask long-term trends on decadal timescales. Arctic sea ice extent was particularly low in 2012, so maybe it’s not that surprising that there’s been an apparent pause since then. A strong El Nino in 1998 that led to a record warm year was one of the main reasons for the subsequent suppposed pause in global warming.

You’d hope that skeptics would have learned by now to not use short-term variability to claim that climate science is somehow broken, but that would be naive. This isn’t about genuinely trying to understand the climate system, it’s just about constructing a narrative that suits their ideology.

I do have a small vested interest in this. The only climate bet I’ve taken is that the average of the 2026/27/28 Arctic sea ice minimum would be smaller than the average of 2011/12/13. It’s not looking all that good for me at the moment, but there’s still a chance, it’s only for a pint and me losing a climate bet doesn’t somehow undermine our basic understanding of climate science.

This story by Kate Yoder was originally published by Grist and is part of Covering Climate Now, a global journalism collaboration strengthening coverage of the climate story.

It was 4 a.m. on July 4 at Camp La Junta in Kerr County when Kolton Taylor woke up to the sound of screaming. The 12-year-old boy stepped out of bed and straight into knee-deep floodwaters from the nearby Guadalupe River. Before long, the water had already risen to his waist. In the darkness, he managed to feel for his tennis shoes floating nearby, put them on, and escape to the safety of the hillside. All 400 people at the all-boys camp survived, even as they watched one of their cabins float away in the rushing river. But 5 miles downriver at Camp Mystic, 28 campers and counselors were killed.

The flash flooding in Texas would have been catastrophic at any time of day, but it was especially dangerous because it happened at night. Research shows that more than half of deaths from floods happen after dark, and in the case of flash floods, one study put the number closer to three-quarters. Other hazards are more perilous in the dark, too: Tornadoes that strike between sunset and sunrise are twice as deadly, on average, as those during the day. No one can stop the sun from rising and setting, but experts say there are simple precautions that can save lives when extreme weather strikes at night. As climate change supercharges floods, hurricanes, and fires, it’s becoming even more important to account for the added risks of nocturnal disasters.

Stephen Strader, a hazards geographer at Villanova University, said that at night, it’s not enough to rely on a phone call from a family member or outdoor warning sirens (which Kerr County officials discussed installing, but never did). The safest bet is a NOAA radio, a device that broadcasts official warnings from the nearest National Weather Service office 24/7. One major advantage is that it doesn’t rely on cell service. 

“That’s old-school technology, but it’s the thing that will wake you up and get you up at 3 a.m.,” said Walker Ashley, an atmospheric scientist and disaster geographer at Northern Illinois University.

Even with warning, reacting in the middle of the night isn’t easy. When people are shaken awake, they’re often disoriented, requiring additional time to figure out what’s happening before they can jump into action. “Those precious minutes and seconds are critical a lot of times in these situations for getting to safety,” Strader said. 

The darkness itself presents another issue. People tend to look outside for proof that weather warnings match up with their reality, but at night, they often can’t find the confirmation they’re looking for until it’s too late. Some drive their cars into floodwaters, unable to see how deep it is, and get swept away. It’s also harder to evacuate — and try to rescue people — when you can barely see anything. “I invite anybody to just go walk around the woods with a flashlight off, and you find out how difficult it can be,” Ashley said. “Imagine trying to navigate floodwaters or trying to find shelter while you’re in rushing water at night with no flashlight. It’s a nightmare.”

The logic applies to most hazards, but the night problem appears the worst with sudden-onset disasters like tornadoes and earthquakes — and the early-morning flash floods in Texas, where the Guadalupe rose 26 feet in 45 minutes. A warmer atmosphere can hold more moisture, meaning that storms can dump more water more suddenly than they used to. 

“We have essentially, because of climate change, put the atmosphere on steroids,” Strader said. It’s on his to-do list to study whether other disasters, like hurricanes and wildfires, are deadlier at night. 

When Hurricane Harvey pummeled Texas with rain for days in 2017, people described waking up to water creeping into their homes; the Texas National Guard navigated rescue boats through neighborhoods in the dark, searching for survivors. In recent years, hurricanes have rapidly intensified before making landfall, fueled by warmer ocean waters. That shrinks the window in which forecasters can warn people a strong storm is coming. *

In the past, nighttime conditions have proved useful for slowing wildfires: Temperatures are cooler and the air has more moisture, reducing the likelihood of fires spreading quickly. But climate change is lessening these beneficial effects. The overall intensity of nighttime fires rose 7 percent worldwide between 2003 and 2020, according to a study in the journal Nature. That means fires are increasingly spreading late at night and early in the morning. It was an ultra-dry January night when the Eaton Fire began tearing through Altadena in Los Angeles County. Some residents were woken up in the predawn hours to smoke already in their homes, strangers pounding on their windows, or sheriff’s deputies and rescue volunteers driving by with loudspeakers.

While daytime tornado deaths have declined over time, nighttime fatalities are on the rise, Strader and Ashley have found in their research. (It’s still unclear as to how climate change affects tornadoes.) They found that tornadoes that touch down at night are statistically more likely to hit someone, simply because there are more potential targets scattered across the landscape. During the day, people are often concentrated in cities and sturdy office buildings versus homes, which may be manufactured and not as structurally resilient to floods or high winds. 

Night adds dimensions of danger to many types of disasters, but the darkness isn’t the only factor at play — and it doesn’t have to be as deadly, Ashley said, stressing the importance of getting a weather radio and making a plan in case the worst happens. “Have multiple ways to get information, and your odds of survival are extremely high, even in the most horrific tornado situation.”

This is a re-post from Carbon Brief by Lauri Myllyvirta

Clean-energy growth helped China’s carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions fall by 1% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, extending a declining trend that started in March 2024.

The CO2 output of the nation’s power sector – its dominant source of emissions – fell by 3% in the first half of the year, as growth in solar power alone matched the rise in electricity demand.

The new analysis for Carbon Brief shows that record solar capacity additions are putting China’s CO2 emissions on track to fall across 2025 as a whole.

Other key findings include:

• The growth in clean power generation, some 270 terawatt hours (TWh) excluding hydro, significantly outpaced demand growth of 170TWh  in the first half of the year.
• Solar capacity additions set new records due to a rush before a June policy change, with 212 gigawatts (GW) added in the first half of the year.
• This rush means solar is likely to set an annual record for growth in 2025, becoming China’s single-largest source of clean power generation in the process.
• Coal-power capacity could surge by as much as 80-100GW this year, potentially setting a new annual record, even as coal-fired electricity generation declines.
• The use of coal to make synthetic fuels and chemicals is growing rapidly, climbing 20% in the first half of the year and helping add 3% to China’s CO2 since 2020.
• The coal-chemical industry is planning further expansion, which could add another 2% to China’s CO2 by 2029, making the 2030 deadline for peaking harder to meet.

Even if its emissions fall in 2025 as expected, however, China is bound to miss multiple important climate targets this year.

This includes targets to reduce its carbon intensity – the emissions per unit of GDP – to strictly control coal consumption growth and new coal-power capacity, as well as to increase the share of cleaner electric-arc steelmaking in total steel output.

If policymakers want to make up for these shortfalls, then there will be additional pressure on China’s next “nationally determined contribution” (NDC, its international climate pledge for 2035) and its 15th five-year plan for 2026-30, both due to be finalised in the coming months.

The falling trend in CO2 emissions – and the clean-energy growth that is driving it – could give policymakers greater confidence that more ambitious targets are achievable.

Falling emissions from power, cement and steel

The reduction in emissions in the first half of 2025 was predominantly driven by the power sector, aided by the building materials, steel and heating industries.

Coal use in the power industry fell by 3.4% compared with the same period a year earlier, while gas use increased by 6%, resulting in a 3.2% drop in emissions for the sector overall.

The reduction in CO2 emissions from coal use in the power sector is shown at the bottom of the figure below, along with the small rise due to higher gas-fired electricity generation.

Other changes in CO2 emissions in the first half of 2025, compared with the same period in 2024, are broken down by source and sector in the rest of the figure.

Year-on-year change in China’s CO2 emissions from fossil fuels and cement, for the period January-June 2025, million tonnes of CO2. Source: Emissions are estimated from National Bureau of Statistics data on production of different fuels and cement, China Customs data on imports and exports and WIND Information data on changes in inventories, applying emissions factors from China’s latest national greenhouse gas emissions inventory and annual emissions factors per tonne of cement production until 2024. Sector breakdown of coal consumption is estimated using coal consumption data from WIND Information and electricity data from the National Energy Administration.

Emissions from the building materials sector fell by 3% and from the metals industry by 1%, with cement falling 4% and steel output 3%. The reason for these reductions is the ongoing contraction in the construction sector, with real estate investment falling 11% and the floor area of new construction starts by 20%. Traditional targets of government infrastructure investment, such as transportation, also showed relatively slow growth.

CO2 reductions resulting from the drop in steel output were limited by a fall in the share of electric arc furnace (EAF) steelmaking, a much less emissions- and energy-intensive process than the coal-based production of primary steel.

The share of electric-arc output in total production fell from 10.2% in 2024 to 9.8% in the first half of 2025, despite a government target of 15% for this year.

Excess coal-based capacity and a lack of incentives for shifting production mean that electric arc steelmakers, rather than coal-based steel mills, tend to absorb reductions in output, as their operating costs are higher and costs of shutting down and starting up production lines are lower.

Shifting to EAF steel is one of the largest emission reduction opportunities in China over the next decade, according to an analysis by the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air.

Elsewhere, consumption of oil products increased by 1%. However, this growth did not come from transport fuel demand. The production of petrol, diesel and jet fuel all continued to fall, with electric vehicles eating into road-fuel demand. Instead, growth was driven by demand for naphtha from petrochemicals producers, including newly commissioned plants.

Gas use outside the power sector – mainly heating – dropped by 1%, after a fall in the first quarter due to mild winter temperatures and a smaller increase in the second quarter.

Solar boom covers power demand growth

The first half of 2025 saw a new record for the growth of clean power generation excluding hydro, made up of solar, wind, nuclear and biomass.

Clean power generation from solar, wind and nuclear power grew by 270 terawatt hours (TWh), substantially exceeding the 170TWh (3.7%) increase in electricity consumption. Hydropower generation fell by 3% (16TWh), moderating the fall in fossil fuel-fired power generation.

The rise in power generation from solar panels, on its own, covered all of the growth in electricity demand, increasing by 170TWh – equivalent to the national power output of Mexico or Turkey over the same period. Wind power output grew by 80TWh and nuclear by 20TWh.

As a result, the share of low-carbon sources reached 40% of the nation’s electricity generation overall in the first half of the year, up from 36% in the same period of 2024.

The figure below shows how clean-energy sources excluding hydro (columns) have started matching the recent increases in China’s electricity demand (solid line), as well as the average amount of growth in recent years (dashed line).

Columns: Year-on-year change in quarterly electricity generation from clean energy excluding hydro, terawatt hours. Solid and dashed line: Quarterly and average change in total electricity generation, TWh. Sources: China Electricity Council; Ember; analysis for Carbon Brief by Lauri Myllyvirta.

Strikingly, the record growth of solar and continued expansion of wind mean that both sources of electricity generation overtook hydropower for the first time in the first half of 2025, as shown in the figure below. Despite steady growth, nuclear power is a relatively distant fourth, at less than half of the power generation from each of the other three major non-fossil technologies.

Electricity generation from non-fossil fuels in the first half of each year, TWh. Source: Ember; analysis for Carbon Brief by Lauri Myllyvirta.

The growth in solar power generation was driven by record capacity growth. China added 212GW of new solar capacity in the first half of the year, double the amount installed in the first half of 2024, which itself had been a new record.

For comparison, the world’s second-largest nation for solar capacity – the US – had only installed 178GW, in total, by the end of 2024, while third-ranked India had 98GW.

Some 93GW of new solar capacity was added to China’s grid in May alone, as the rush to install before a change in pricing policy culminated. This rate of installations translates to approximately 100 solar panels installed every second of the month.

The acceleration was due to a change in the policy on tariffs paid to new wind and solar generators, which started in June. Previously, new plants were guaranteed to receive the benchmark price for coal-fired power output in each province, for each unit of electricity they generate. Under the new policy, new generators have to secure contracts directly with electricity buyers, causing uncertainty and likely putting downward pressure on revenue.

The resulting surge in new capacity means that solar is poised to overtake wind this year – and hydro this year or next – to become the largest source of clean power generation in China.

This is despite solar capacity additions slowing down in June and projections diverging widely on how much growth to expect for the remainder of 2025 and into 2026, under the new policy.

The consensus among forecasters has been one of a sharp slowdown in installations.

After the new pricing policy was announced, the China Electricity Council (CEC) and China Photovoltaic Industry Association (CPIA) projected 210GW and 215-235GW for 2025 as a whole, respectively, implying plummeting additions in the second half of the year. In contrast, the State Grid Energy Research Institute expects 380GW to be added to the grid this year.

After data for May installations became available, the CEC upgraded its forecast for the whole year to 310GW and the CPIA to 270-300GW, implying that 60-100GW would be added in the second half of the year. This would still be a sharp deceleration compared with the second half of 2024, when 173GW was added.

For wind, the State Grid researchers expect 140GW and CEC 110GW, while 51GW was added in the first half of the year. Both numbers indicate larger capacity additions in the second half of 2025 and an increase for the full year compared with 2024.

The State Grid should have detailed knowledge of projects seeking to connect to the electricity grid, so its projections carry extra weight compared with others. If its expectations for wind and solar growth are realised, this would result in around 850TWh of annual clean power generation being added to the grid in 2025, as shown in the figure below.

This new clean power capacity would be more than enough to meet the entire electricity demand of Brazil (760TWh), or Germany and the UK combined (817TWh).

With the State Grid also projecting demand to grow by 400-640TWh (4.0-6.5%), clean-energy growth should push down CO2 from China’s power sector this year – and well into next year.

Annual electricity generation from clean power capacity newly added each year, terawatt hours by source. Three alternative projections for 2025 are taken from a range of different organisations. Power generation from new capacity is projected using average capacity factors for each technology over 2015–2024. Sources: Historical data from China Electricity Council; projections from China Photovoltaic Industry Association, China Electricity Council, State Grid and analysis for Carbon Brief by Lauri Myllyvirta.

China’s top economic planner, the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), is also taking steps to spur demand for contracts with solar and wind producers.

A new policy – published in July – requires for the first time that steel, cement and polysilicon factories, as well as some new data centres, meet a certain percentage of their demand using renewable electricity.

Previously, such requirements were only applied to provinces, power distribution companies and the aluminum industry. Their mandated renewable energy shares have also now increased.

These changes boost demand for contracts with renewable electricity suppliers, just as new solar and wind plants are having to secure contracts directly with buyers, under their new pricing policy.

The increase in demand for renewable power resulting from these measures broadly matches the low end of the growth projected in solar and wind this year. The renewable quotas therefore offer a backstop of support for the continued growth of clean power, which will be required to meet China’s wider climate and energy targets.

The increase in solar power generation from rising installations could be even larger, but is being limited by issues around grid management and capacity.

The share of potential solar power output that was not utilised rose to 5.7% in the first half of 2025, from 3.2% a year earlier. While technical issues such as uncompleted grid connections could play a role amid the boom, this also implies a significant increase in curtailment.

The average utilisation rate of solar panels fell by 12% in the first quarter of this year, compared with the 2020–2023 average, according to China Electricity Council data accessed through Wind Information. This is a much larger reduction than indicated by the reported curtailment rates. The flipside of this dip in utilisation is that improvements to grid operation and infrastructure will unlock even more generation from existing solar capacity.

Coal power capacity is expected to surge this year, even as demand for power generation from coal contracts. The State Grid predicts 127GW of thermal power added. Some of this will be gas, but based on non-coal thermal power additions expected by the CEC, around 90-100GW is coal, while the CEC projects 80GW of coal power added.

Data from Global Energy Monitor shows 93-109GW of coal-power projects under construction that could be completed this year, assuming a 2.5 to 3-year lead time from issuance of permits to grid connection. The largest amount of coal-fired capacity China has ever connected to the grid in one year is 63GW in 2008, so 2025 seems likely to set a new record by a large margin.

A former senior official at one of China’s largest power firms stated in an interview in June 2025 that companies are building coal power capacity due to central government pressure.

There is little enthusiasm to invest and the target to expand coal-power capacity to 1,360GW in this five-year plan period, covering 2021-2025, is unlikely to be met. Operating coal-power capacity was 1,210GW at the end of June, up from 1,080GW at the end of 2020.

The influx of coal-fired capacity will result in falling utilisation and profitability.

However, oversupply of coal power could also weaken demand for contracts with solar and wind producers, undermining clean-energy growth. This makes measures that offer a backstop of demand for clean power, such as the sector quotas, all the more significant.

Coal chemicals shooting up

The only major sector that saw growth in emissions in the first half of the year was the chemicals sector. Coal use in the sector, both as a fuel and a feedstock, increased by a dramatic 20% year-on-year, on top of a 10% increase in 2024.

Oil use in the chemicals sector increased as well, as reflected in a 9% increase in total consumption of naptha – a key petrochemicals feedstock – estimated from OPEC data.

The growth is driven by the coal-to-chemicals industry, which turns coal into synthetic liquid and gaseous fuels, as well as petrochemical products. This is a sector that China has developed aggressively, to reduce reliance on imported oil and gas, as well as to promote the exploitation of coal resources in the country’s far west – particularly Xinjiang – where coal and coal power exports to the rest of China are limited by transportation capacity and costs.

The sector consumed approximately 390m tonnes of coal in 2024, resulting in an estimated 690m tonnes CO2 emissions (MtCO2), making it responsible for 6% of China’s fossil CO2 emissions and 9% of the country’s coal use in 2024.

Coal use and emissions increased 10% from 2023 while total coal conversion capacity increased only 5%, implying that the utilisation of existing capacity increased as well.

The coal-to-chemicals industry used 155m tonnes of standard coal in 2020 and CO2 emissions were estimated at 320MtCO2. The coal-to-chemicals industry therefore added around 3% to China’s total CO2 emissions from 2020 to 2024, making it one of the sectors responsible for the recent acceleration in the country’s CO2 emissions growth and its shortfall against targets to control increases in CO2 emissions and coal use.

Output from the sector reportedly replaced 100m tonnes of oil equivalent (Mtoe) of oil and gas in 2024, which implies 250-280MtCO2 emissions avoided from oil and gas use, depending on how the avoided demand breaks down between oil and gas.

The net effect of the industry on CO2 emissions was therefore an increase of around 410-440MtCO2, or 4% of China’s total CO2, highlighting that coal-based chemical production is much more carbon-intensive than its already carbon-intensive oil- and gas-based equivalent.

The sector’s growth in coal use and emissions reflects drastically improved profitability in most segments in recent years. Its profitability depends heavily on the oil price, so the sharp increase in oil prices from the 2015-2020 level in 2021-24 supported output growth, whereas the recent fall in oil prices could temper it.

The chemical industry association still expects the sector to expand capacity for another decade, until 2035, even under China’s CO2 peaking target.

Analysis by Tianfeng Securities touts the years 2025-2030 as the “peak period” for investment in coal to chemicals, claiming that potential annual investment over the next five years could reach three times the 2021-23 level and that half of this potential investment is in Xinjiang province.

Sinolink Securities projects that an average of at least 37m tonnes of coal conversion capacity will be added in the coal-to-chemicals industry each year from 2025 to 2029, with coal-to-oil-and-gas and coal-to-methanol dominating these capacity additions.

This would mean a 40% increase in the industry’s capacity from 2024 to 2029, with the potential to add over 250MtCO2 per year of emissions, increasing total CO2 emissions by over 2%.

The figure below illustrates this potential increase, which would continue recent trends.

Past and projected annual emissions from the coal-to-chemicals industry in China, MtCO2. Source: IEA World Energy Balances; from 2020 to 2024, news reporting; future projection based on capacity additions from Sinolink Securities, assuming constant capacity utilisation.

If this further expansion takes place – and assuming new chemicals plants are used at the same rate as the existing fleet is being used today – then it would complicate China’s carbon peaking target and make the CO2 intensity target for 2030 even more challenging to meet.

However, this is not the first time that the industry has been predicted to boom. In 2014, the China Coal Association issued a prediction that the coal-to-chemicals industry would be using 750Mt of coal per year by 2020, converting to about 540Mt of “standard” coal.

In reality, less than a third of this demand was realised – in large part due to low oil prices – and the sector was still only using half of this amount by the end of 2024.

New targets on the horizon

Given the major increase in solar capacity in the first half, as well as expected additions of wind and nuclear throughout the year, China is on track for a fall in emissions in 2025.

This would continue a declining trend that began in early 2024 and leaves open the possibility that China’s emissions could have peaked already, years ahead of its “before 2030” target.

The recent slide in China’s total CO2 emissions is shown in the figure below, with the shallow decline illustrating the potential that this trend could be reversed.

China’s emissions from fossil fuels and cement, million tonnes of CO2, rolling 12-month totals. Note the truncated y-axis Source: Emissions are estimated from National Bureau of Statistics data on production of different fuels and cement, China Customs data on imports and exports and WIND Information data on changes in inventories, applying emissions factors from China’s latest national greenhouse gas emissions inventory and annual emissions factors per tonne of cement production until 2024. Sector breakdown of coal consumption is estimated using coal consumption data from WIND Information and electricity data from the National Energy Administration.

Even if China’s emissions fall by a few percent this year, however, this is unlikely to be sufficient to meet the carbon intensity target for 2025 in the current five-year plan. Still, it would make the country’s 2030 carbon intensity commitment under the Paris Agreement easier to meet. 

A continuing fall in emissions, extending the fall that began in early 2024, could also affect target-setting for the next five-year plan – which is being prepared for release in early 2026 – by showing that China could peak and reduce its emissions well ahead of the 2030 deadline.

Yet, despite rapid progress in 2024 and 2025, China is bound to miss multiple emissions-related targets in the 2021-2025 period, due to rapid CO2 rises during and after the Covid pandemic.

These targets include improvements in carbon intensity, “strict” controls of the growth in coal consumption and new coal-fired power plants, as well as the share of cleaner electric arc steelmaking in total steel output.

If China’s policymakers want to make up the shortfall against these 2025 targets and get on track for their 2030 goals, then they would need to set out higher ambitions in the 15th five-year plan, covering 2026-2030. For example, this could include reducing the carbon intensity of China’s economy by more than 20% over the next five years.

China’s new pledge (NDC) under the Paris Agreement, with targets for 2035, is due to be published in the next few months and will provide important indications of their intentions.

The new pricing policy for wind and solar has also increased the importance of target-setting, by making “contracts for difference” available for the amount of capacity needed to meet the central government’s clean-energy targets. An ambitious clean-energy target for 2035 would be a significant new backstop for clean-energy growth, with both climate and economic relevance.

Another major question is how the government will react to the influx of coal-fired capacity, even as power generation from coal recedes. It could either move to close down older coal plants – or to limit clean-energy additions.

With respect to coal power plants, the key point remains, however, that as long as clean power generation keeps growing faster than electricity demand, then increases in coal and gas fired capacity will result in falling utilisation, rather than increased CO2 emissions.

About the data

Data for the analysis was compiled from the National Bureau of Statistics of China, National Energy Administration of China, China Electricity Council and China Customs official data releases, and from WIND Information, an industry data provider.

Wind and solar output, and thermal power breakdown by fuel, was calculated by multiplying power generating capacity at the end of each month by monthly utilisation, using data reported by China Electricity Council through Wind Financial Terminal.

Total generation from thermal power and generation from hydropower and nuclear power was taken from National Bureau of Statistics monthly releases.

Monthly utilisation data was not available for biomass, so the annual average of 52% for 2023 was applied. Power sector coal consumption was estimated based on power generation from coal and the average heat rate of coal-fired power plants during each month, to avoid the issue with official coal consumption numbers affecting recent data. 

CO2 emissions estimates are based on National Bureau of Statistics default calorific values of fuels and emissions factors from China’s latest national greenhouse gas emissions inventory, for the year 2021. Cement CO2 emissions factor is based on annual estimates up to 2024.

For oil consumption, apparent consumption is calculated from refinery throughput, with net exports of oil products subtracted.

A listing of 30 news and opinion articles we found interesting and shared on social media during the past week: Sun, August 17, 2025 thru Sat, August 23, 2025. Stories we promoted this week, by category:

Climate Change Impacts (13 articles)

• Summer 2025 is roasting hot: these charts show why it matters Data reveal how this year’s back-to-back heatwaves are affecting populations and economies across Europe. Nature, Giorgia Guglielmi, Aug 14, 2025.
• Flash floods kill at least 159 people in Pakistan after huge cloudburst "Search for the missing continues in north-west after downpour also sparks deadly flooding and landslides in India" World, The Guardian, Associated Press in Chositi, Aug 15, 2025.
• ‘Hellish’: heatwave brings hottest nights on record to the Middle East "Temperatures did not drop below 36C in Sedom, Israel on Tuesday night, while several parts of Jordan stayed above 35C on Monday" World, The Guardian, Ajit Niranjan, Aug 15, 2025.
• El Paso’s Heat Is Killing in Record Numbers. It May Only Get Worse "In El Paso, heat deaths hit record highs in 2023 and 2024. Advocates say not enough is being done to protect the region’s most vulnerable people."El Paso’s Heat Is Killing in Record Numbers. It May Only Get Worse Justice & Health, Inside Climate News, Story by Martha Pskowski, photos by Paul Ratje, Aug 17, 2025.
• ‘Pray for rain’: wildfires in Canada are now burning where they never used to Lede: "Canada’s response to the extreme weather threat is being upended as the traditional epicentre of the blazes shifts as the climate warms" World, The Guardian, Leyland Cecco in Toronto, Aug 17.
• Wildfires rage in Spain and Portugal amid searing heat Extreme temperatures exacerbated by carbon pollution fuel fires in southern Europe as green policies are rolled back The Guardian, Ajit Niranjan and Sam Jones, Aug 18, 2025.
• Extraordinary Erin expands its reach over the northwest Atlantic "And another disturbance could intensify and reach the northern Leeward Islands as soon as the upcoming weekend." Eye on the Stor, Yale Cimarss, Bob Henson, Aug 18, 2025.
• Guest post: Why the recent slowdown in Arctic sea ice loss is only temporary "The retreat of sea ice in the Arctic has long been a prominent symbol of climate change." Guest Post, Carbon Brief, Dr Mark England, Aug 19, 2025.
• Hurricane Erin threatens dangerous surf for much of the East Coast as a new tropical system brews in its wake CNN Weather, Briana Waxman & Mary Gilbert, Aug 19, 2025.
• Extreme heat wave with temperatures above 110 for some looms for Southwest "The hottest weather is forecast for Furnace Creek in California's Death Valley National Park, where a temperature of 120 degrees is expected Friday." NBC News, Dennis Romero, Aug 19, 2025.
• At Europe's melting glaciers, signs of climate peril are everywhere "Europe's glaciers are shrinking faster than anywhere else on Earth, leaving behind unstable landscapes." Climate Change, NBC News, Molly Hunter & Sara Monetta, Aug 19, 2025.
• These places will be hit by big waves and coastal flooding as Hurricane Erin passes "Hurricane Erin will bring dangerous surf and possible flooding to a dozen states from Wednesday to Friday. Find out if your area has weather alerts for the storm." Weather, Washington Post, Ben Noll, Aug 20, 2025.
• Antarctica is in extreme peril "Abrupt changes" threaten to send the continent past the point of no return, a new study finds. Grist, Matt Simon, Aug 22, 2025.

Climate Policy and Politics (5 articles)

• Republicans who backed Trump’s anti-environment bill have accepted over $105m from big oil "The One Big Beautiful Bill Act includes billions of dollars in giveaways to fossil fuel companies and their executives" Environment, The Guardian, Dharna Noor, Aug 15, 2025.
• Trump team readies more attacks on mainstream climate science The plans include a public debate on global warming. Scientists say that falsely implies the major tenets of climate research are unsettled. Climatewire - E&ENews, Scott Waldmann, Aug 18, 2025.
• MPs Slam Trump Advisor for Interfering in UK Climate Debate Former BP scientist Steve Koonin claimed Brits should be “enraged” about Labour’s climate policies. DeSmog, Adam Barnett and Rei Takver, Aug 19, 2025.
• Trump wants NASA to burn a crucial satellite to cinders, killing research into climate change Business, Los Angeles Times, Michael Hiltzik, Aug 19, 2025.
• New Lawsuit Contends Trump’s DOE Handpicked Panel of Climate Deniers The EPA relied heavily on a report the panel produced rejecting the scientific consensus on climate change Sierra, Dana Drugmand, Aug 19, 2025.

Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation (4 articles)

• Affordability, Not Volatility: Renewables’ Cost Advantage Grows "Renewables’ edge over fossil fuel electricity is growing, recent reports show. In 2024, more than 90 percent of new global renewable energy capacity was cheaper." RMI Spark Chart, Strategic Insights, Will Atkinson, Aug 13, 2025.
• But what about CHINA's emissions? (and other BS arguments DEBUNKED) "Just have a Think" on Youtube, Dave Borlace, Aug 17, 2025.
• Growing food in a changing climate ""12 books on the art, science, economics, and ethics of agriculture"" Review, Yale Climate Connections, Michael Svoboda, aug 18, 2025.
• The Researcher Who Wrote the Book on How Solar Got Cheap Is Back to Assess the Current Moment "With an updated edition of his 2019 book, Greg Nemet looks at global progress and puts U.S. obstacles in perspective." inside Clean Energy, Inside Climate News, Dan Gearino, Aug 21, 2025.

Health Aspects of Climate Change (3 articles)

• Death toll from northern Pakistan monsoon floods rises to almost 400 Torrential rains across the country's north have caused flooding and landslides that have swept away entire villages" Khaleej Times, AFP, Aug 19, 2025.
• Battling the heat: Europe takes action to protect health in a warming world Phys.org, Vittoria D'Alessio, Aug 20, 2025.
• ER doctors say we need to pay more attention to heat Los Angeles Times, Marcos Magaña, Aug 23, 2025.

Climate Science and Research (2 articles)

• Skeptical Science New Research for Week #34 2025 "Technical difficulties" in dealing with climate change and how to address them dominate our highlighted research reports this week. Skeptical Science, Doug Bostrom & Marc Kodack, Aug 21, 2025.
• Sea-level projections from the 1990s were spot on, study says Phys.org, Tulane University, Aug 22, 2025.

Public Misunderstandings about Climate Science (1 article)

• Fact brief - Are surface temperature records reliable? Yes - Surface temperature records are consistent and have been confirmed by multiple independent analyses. Skeptical Science, Sue Bin Park, Aug 22, 2025.

Public Misunderstandings about Climate Solutions (1 article)

• Why wind farms attract so much misinformation and conspiracy theory The Conversation, Marc Hudson, Aug 23, 2025.

Miscellaneous (1 article)

• 2025 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #33 A listing of 29 news and opinion articles we found interesting and shared on social media during the past week: Sun, August 10, 2025 thru Sat, August 16, 2025. Skeptical Science, Bärbel Winkler, John Hartz & Doug Bostrom, Aug 17, 2025.

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