Skeptical Science

This is a re-post from The Climate Brink

The 2026-27 El Niño is on track to be the strongest event in the instrumental record. The latest (September 2026) runs of the 14 seasonal forecast models that I track over at the Climate Dashboard put the event’s peak at around 4.1C in the Niño 3.4 region (with the middle 80% of ensemble members between 3.4C and 4.6C), well above the prior record of 2.75C during the 2015-16 El Niño.1

I’ve previously written about how unprecedenteted this event will be. The question I get asked most often now is a more practical one: what does it actually mean for the weather where I live?

I recently published a piece in Nature on the impacts of El Niño and what countries should do to prepare. But I can only fit so much in a short journal article, and there is vast scientific literature on regional El Niño impacts that has accumulated over the past few decades.

This post walks presents a map of higher-confidence El Niño impacts, with an in-depth discussion of each different region. Some of the canonical El Niño impacts show up in nearly every strong event on record, while others turn out to be closer to a coin flip when looking at the record of past events.

Expected regional impacts of the 2026-27 El Niño. Shading shows confidence from the teleconnection literature and the observed record of strong events. Shapes show where at least 80% of 13 seasonal forecast models agree on the sign of the rainfall or temperature anomaly (NMME and Copernicus C3S, September 2026 initialization). Regional impacts beyond the models’ forecast range (e.g. summer 2027) are drawn by hand. Each label shows how many of the eight strong El Niños since 1957 went the expected way and how many of this year’s models agree.

If you want to dig into a particular region, I’ve put togehter an interactive version of this map over at the Climate Dashboard. Clicking on a region brings up how it fared in each of the eight past strong El Niños, what each of this year’s forecast models shows, and a short summary of the relevant research. You can also replay any past strong event across the whole map, step through the forecast season by season, or click anywhere to see the raw model forecast for that spot. 

Likelihoods but not guarantees

El Niño events shift the odds of different climate outcomes, but not every El Niño has the exact same impacts (Mason and Goddard 2001). As NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center puts it in their current ENSO discussion: “With an event of this magnitude, the chances of experiencing impacts consistent with El Niño are larger, but they are not guaranteed.”

To get at how much the odds shift, I’ve leaned on three separate lines of evidence for each region. The first is the published literature on El Niño teleconnections (the physical pathways by which a warm tropical Pacific changes rainfall and temperature elsewhere). I’ve assessed these with IPCC-style confidence levels like high, medium-high, and medium confidence. You can find links to the individual studies I’ve relied on below, with more details shown over at the Climate Dashboard when clicking on a particular region.

The second is the current generation of dynamical seasonal forecasts: 13 independent modeling systems (six from NOAA’s North American Multi-Model Ensemble and seven from the European Copernicus Climate Change Service), which let us see where the models agree and disagree with the teleconnection literature during this particular event.

The third is the past performance during strong El Niño events. For every region on the map I went back to the eight strong events since 1957 (1957-58, 1965-66, 1972-73, 1982-83, 1997-98, 2009-10, 2015-16 and 2023-24) and checked how often that region was drier or wetter than a typical ENSO-neutral year.2 The figure below shows the results. Each cell is one past event, colored by how dry or wet it was relative to neutral years, with a check mark wherever it landed on the expected side.3

Each cell shows rainfall (or temperature) in one of the eight strong El Niños since 1957 (Nov–Jan Oceanic Niño Index ≥ 1.5 °C), for the season shown on the impacts map, relative to ENSO-neutral years after removing long-term trends. Checks mark events on the expected side of the neutral-year median. Data from GPCC v2025, Berkeley Earth, GHCN-Daily stations (Hawaii and Western Pacific islands) and GPCP (Central Pacific islands, 1979 onward only). Model agreement is from the September 2026 forecasts.

A few things jump out here. Across the 26 regions on the map, 86% of region-events went the expected way (176 of 205). The two biggest east Pacific events, 1982-83 and 1997-98, gave the expected impacts in every single region. The two earliest events delivered in only 68% of regions, which likely reflects both sparser rain gauge networks in the 1950s and 60s and genuine differences between events.

That being said, the teleconnection literature draws in part from these same events, particularly 1982-83 and 1997-98, so these hit rates partly restate the evidence the literature was built on. It’s also worth noting that no past event looks like the one forecast for this winter. All eight of these are “strong” events, and 2026-27 is forecast to be well beyond any of them. In the regions with the most reliable signals that probably means larger impacts. But it also means we are extrapolating well outside the training data here.

Asia, Australia and the Pacific

The western tropical Pacific is where El Niño’s fingerprint is clearest, because it is where the atmosphere’s rising branch of the Walker circulation normally sits. When that rising air shifts east toward the central Pacific, the islands and archipelagos that normally sit under it dry out.

Close-up of the impacts map for Asia, Australia and the Pacific. Each card shows how many of the eight strong El Niños since 1957 went the expected way and how many of this year’s forecast models agree.

Indonesia and the Maritime Continent are the single most reliable El Niño impact on the planet. September through December was drier than the median neutral year in all eight past strong events, and in six of them it was drier than any neutral year in the record. Past strong events resulted in around 73% of normal rainfall, and all 13 models agree on drought this autumn. The main risk for the region is fire. Burning on drained peatlands responds very nonlinearly to drought, and the fires during the 1997 El Niño released an estimated 3 to 9 billion tonnes of CO2, equivalent to 13% to 40% of global fossil fuel emissions that year. The haze from the 2015 fires has been linked to around 100,300 excess deaths across Indonesia, Malaysia and Singapore.

The Philippines has an equally consistent record, dry from December through April in all eight strong events (with a median of 58% of normal rainfall). This is driven by an anomalous high pressure system that sets up over the western North Pacific during El Niño winters (Lyon and Camargo 2009). Every one of the 13 models shows it this year.

The western Pacific islands, from Palau and Guam through Micronesia, the Solomon Islands, Vanuatu and Fiji, were drier than normal (i.e. than in a typical neutral year) in all eight events. These islands also see sea level drop as the warm water sloshes east, which can expose and kill shallow reef flats (Widlansky et al. 2015).

On the other hand, the central Pacific islands of Kiribati and Tuvalu get deluged. Satellite-era data show September to May rainfall there wetter than in any neutral year in each of the five strong events since 1982, with a median of around double normal.

Southern China tends to be wetter from winter through spring, fed by moisture flowing around the same western Pacific high pressure system. The observed record is weaker than for the Philippines, with 5 of 8 strong events wetter than normal, though the big events were very wet (1982-83 brought around 200% of normal rainfall and 2015-16 164%). The models are in strong agreement (12 of 13) on heavier than normal rainfall this year.

The Yangtze basin is generally expected to experience heavy summer rain in the year after a strong El Niño, when the Indian Ocean warms up and acts as a “capacitor” that sustains the western Pacific high pressure system into summer. That signal was real in 1998, the year of catastrophic Yangtze floods. In June and July, when the East Asian monsoon rain band normally sits over the basin, it was wetter than normal during 6 of 8 past strong events, including all six since 1972. However, next summer is beyond the range of any current seasonal forecast, so no model-based odds are available.

The southern Mekong basin (Cambodia, southern Laos and southern Vietnam) was drier than normal in March to May of the year after the El Niño peak in 7 of 8 strong events, with a median of around 71% of normal rainfall. The teleconnections literature suggests that the ENSO drought signal in mainland Southeast Asia is “most consistent and expressed over the largest areal extents during March-May of the year when the ENSO events decay.” The models show a bit less agreement this year (only 4 of 6 models that extend through May show drying) and the literature notes the relationship varies between events, so it shows up on the map as only medium confidence.

In India, the the textbook example of El Niño is a weaker than normal Indian monsoon. North and central India were drier than normal in all eight years during which strong El Niño events developed, and the 2026 monsoon was running around 12% below normal by mid-August. But that season is already behind us; the monsoon in the year after a strong El Niño was drier than normal in only 1 of 8 cases (1966), with the other seven running between 102% and 115% of normal. Part of this is that strong El Niños often flip into La Niña by the following summer, and part of it is that eastern Pacific events like this one appear less effective at suppressing Indian rainfall in the first place (Kumar et al. 2006). Either way, the data do not support calling for a weak 2027 monsoon.4

Sri Lanka’s northeast monsoon (October to December) was wetter than normal in all eight strong events, with a median of 126% of normal (Zubair and Ropelewski 2006). However, Sri Lanka was also on the wet side in 8 of 12 La Niña years, so the island’s autumn rain is less tied to El Niño specifically than the count might suggests. Southern India shows a similar observed record (7 of 8), but it is not on the map because this year’s models disagree about it (only 5 of 13 show a wet signal).

Southeast Australia (Victoria and Tasmania) was drier than normal between September and November in 7 of 8 strong events, with a median of 81% of normal and a severe 44% in 2015. The El Niño dry signal is concentrated in spring, when it is reinforced by the positive Indian Ocean Dipole that often accompanies El Niño (Cai et al. 2009), and it has a habit of reversing in summer. In 2023-24, national rainfall ran 20% below average in spring before summer came in 19% above average. And for eastern Australia more broadly, this year’s models show little signal at all (only 10 of 13 lean dry, which is not significant). It’s worth noting that the 2019-20 Black Summer fires, often associated with El Niño in the public mind, happened during a record positive Indian Ocean Dipole with only borderline El Niño conditions.

Africa

El Niño’s effects on Africa run through the Indian Ocean. This year a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (warm water off East Africa, cool water off Sumatra) has been developing alongside it. That combination points in opposite directions for the two halves of the continent.

Close-up of the impacts map for Africa. Each card shows how many of the eight strong El Niños since 1957 went the expected way and how many of this year’s forecast models agree.

Southern Africa probably the most potentially disasterious impact on the map, because summer rain there feeds the maize crop that tens of millions of people depend on. December to February was drier than normal in 6 of 8 strong events, consistent with Pomposi et al. (2018), who estimate an around 80% chance of below-normal rain in a strong El Niño. The two clear misses were early in the record (1957-58 and 1965-66). The largest recent failure was 1997-98, when the expected regional drought failed to materialize. That has been attributed to regional circulation features (the Angola Low and Botswana High) that vary independently of ENSO, and it isn’t something we can rule out this year. But the most comparable recent case suggests we will see a bigger impact this year: in 2023-24, with an Indian Ocean Dipole almost as strong as 1997’s, southern Africa had the driest season of all eight events (69% of normal), prompting a $5.5 billion regional humanitarian appeal for more than 61 million people. All 13 models show drought this coming summer.

The Horn of Africa (southern Ethiopia, Kenya and Somalia) was wetter than normal between October and December in all eight strong events, with 1997 at 241% of normal and 2023 at 175%. Here the Indian Ocean Dipole matters more than El Niño itself. In model studies the influence of the dipole on the short rains is “overwhelming as compared to that of ENSO,” and World Weather Attribution’s analysis of the catastrophic 2023 floods found “no significant role of ENSO but a significant influence of the IOD.” Because strong eastern Pacific El Niños tend to come with positive dipole events, the hit rate here is really a record of the two acting together. That is also what it looks like will occur this year, as all 13 models show a wet season.

The Sahel is not on the map. Its El Niño signal mostly falls on the summer rainy season of the developing year (which for this event was 2026), and even then it was drier than normal in only 3 of 8 strong events. The literature agrees this is one of the weakest teleconnections, with El Niño explaining only a small share of Sahel rainfall variability (Pomposi et al. 2020).

South America Close-up of the impacts map for South America. Each card shows how many of the eight strong El Niños since 1957 went the expected way and how many of this year’s forecast models agree.

The Amazon was drier than normal between October and May in 7 of 8 strong events, and in each of the last five (from 1982-83 onward) it was drier than any ENSO-neutral year in the record. All 13 models agree for this season. But the Amazon is also strongly impacted by longer-term climate changes. A World Weather Attribution study found that “the severity of the [2023-24] drought… is largely driven by climate change,” with El Niño and warming contributing about equally to the rainfall deficit but the drying trend almost entirely due to warming. Fire risk also depends heavily on land management practices, as the large majority of Amazon fires are set by people.

Northern South America (Colombia, Venezuela and the Guianas) was drier than normal in December to February in all eight strong events, with a median of 71% of normal (Poveda et al. 2011). All 13 models agree this year. Northeast Brazil’s March to May rainy season was drier than normal in 6 of 8 events (Hastenrath 2011). That signal depends on tropical Atlantic temperatures as well as the Pacific, which is why it shown as only medium-high confidence. It also has a dashed outline on the map, because after the last El Niño the 2024 rainy season came in right at normal (100%).

The coast of northern Peru and Ecuador is where El Niño got its name, and where its impacts can be most violent. Normally a desert, the coast floods when the ocean just offshore warms enough to support deep convection. Only 1982-83 and 1997-98 brought truly extreme rains, with the coastal grid cells averaging more than double normal rainfall from December to April. Other strong events ranged from somewhat below to somewhat above normal, and in 2023-24 the expected coastal rains largely failed after Peru had set aside around $1.2 billion for flood preparation. What distinguished 1982-83 and 1997-98 was very warm water right along the coast. This year looks more like those two events than the others; in mid-September the far eastern Pacific (the Niño 1+2 region) was running 4.6C above normal, compared to 3.5C in 1997, 2.1C in 2015 and 2.6C in 2023 at the same point. I’ve rated this high confidence provided that coastal warmth persists as predicted by current models.

Southeastern South America (Uruguay, northeastern Argentina, southern Brazil and Paraguay) was wetter than normal between September and February in 7 of 8 strong events (Grimm and Tedeschi 2009), while the 2023-24 season was close to normal. The devastating Rio Grande do Sul floods of May 2024 came much later – in the autumn after the El Niño’s peak – though one attribution study found the El Niño approximately doubled their likelihood (albeit with a very wide uncertainty range).

The Altiplano, the high plateau shared by southern Peru, western Bolivia and northern Chile, gets most of its rain from December to March, and El Niño tends to suppress it. A warmer tropical atmosphere strengthens the upper-level westerly winds over the Andes, which cuts off the easterly flow that normally carries Amazon moisture up onto the plateau (Garreaud and Aceituno 2001). All 13 models show a dry summer this year, one of the strongest model signals anywhere on the map. The observed record is weaker as only 5 of 8 past strong events were drier than normal. The link is closest over the drier western part of the plateau (Vuille et al. 2000) and weaker toward Lake Titicaca in the north, so I’ve rated the region medium confidence.

In Chile, Montecinos and Aceituno (2003) find that during El Niño “there is a tendency for the occurrence of above-average precipitation between 30° and 35°S in winter [June–July–August (JJA)] and from 35° to 38°S in late spring [October–November (ON)].” October and November were wetter than normal in 7 of 8 strong events (with a median of 170% of normal) and in all six moderate El Niños, and all 13 models agree this year.

Further south, the same literature finds relatively dry summers between about 38°S and 41°S during El Niño, and the observed record agrees (7 of 8 strong events drier than normal from January to March), but this year’s models are split (only 8 of 13 show a drier January and February), so I’ve left it off the map. The Atacama Desert does get rare heavy rains in El Niño years, but historically these have come in the winter of the developing year (Vargas et al. 2000), which for this event has already passed.

North and Central America Close-up of the impacts map for North America, Central America and Hawaii. Each card shows how many of the eight strong El Niños since 1957 went the expected way and how many of this year’s forecast models agree.

The US Gulf Coast and Southeast was wetter than normal between December and February in all eight strong events, with 1982-83 at 151% and 1997-98 at 168% of normal (Ropelewski and Halpert 1986). The strengthened subtropical jet stream also brings wetter winters to Cuba and the Bahamas, which were wetter than normal in all eight strong events, with a median of 163% of normal (Giannini et al. 2000). This year all 13 models agree on wetter than normal conditions in both regions.

Southern California, the US Southwest and northern Mexico were wetter than normal between December and March in 7 of 8 strong events, with 1982-83 and 1997-98 both around double normal. The exception was 2015-16 when coastal southern California ended up at only 60% to 68% of normal despite 9 of 10 seasonal models predicting a wet winter that year. Rerun for 1982-83 and 1997-98, those same models called for wet winters (9 of 9 and 10 of 11), which is what happened. El Niño explains at most around a third of West Coast winter rainfall variability even in strong years, so a lot comes down to where individual storms go.

Northern California is a bit more ambigious. It was wetter than normal between December and March in 6 of 8 strong events, including 2015-16 (120% of normal) when Southern California missed, and 1982-83 and 1997-98 were both well above normal (173% and 156%). All 13 models lean wet this year. The misses were 1965-66 (75%) and 2009-10 (90%). However, the signal is not very specific to El Niño. Northern California was also on the wet side in 7 of 12 La Niña winters, only 2 of 6 moderate El Niños were wet, and the El Niño relationship across all winters since 1950 is weak. Past work has generally found the El Niño rainfall signal is concentrated in Southern California, and I’ve added it to the map as only medium confidence for this year.

Further north, El Niño winters tend to be drier in interior British Columbia and the inland Northwest, with lower snowpack (Shabbar et al. 1997). This was observed in 7 of 8 past events, though the typical dry anomaly is small (~95% of normal), so I’ve assigned it only medium confidence.

Central Canada tends to have mild winters during El Niño, with the strongest warmth just west of Hudson Bay (Shabbar and Khandekar 1996). All eight strong El Niño winters were warmer than the typical neutral winter once long-term warming is removed, and the four since 1997 were strikingly warm (2023-24 was Canada’s warmest winter on record). But La Niña winters were also on the warm side in 7 of 12 cases, and it is sensitive to how the warming trend is removed so I’ve assigned it medium confidence.

Hawaii is usually dry during El Niño winters, particularly in eastern Pacific events like this one (Lu et al. 2020). A composite of long-running Hawaiian rain gauges shows November to March was drier than normal in every strong event since 1972 (six of six, with a median of 69% of normal), though 1957-58 and 1965-66 were both wet. All 13 models show a dry winter this year.

Central America and the southern Caribbean (Costa Rica, Panama and the Caribbean coast of Colombia) tend to be drier during El Niño winters. During the 2023 El Niño, drought restricted traffic through the Panama Canal. But December to February is the dry season across much of this region anyway, and in the places where it normally rains during those months drier conditions only occurred in 5 of 8 past events. The more robust Central American signal is midsummer drought during the developing year (e.g. July and August 2026), which has already passed.

While some of the literature on teleconnections suggests that El Niño drives drier conditions in the Ohio Valley, this year’s models lean wet there (only 3 of 13 show drying), and the observed record is a coin flip as it was only drier in 4 of 8 past strong events.

Europe

Europe is conspicuously absent from the map, which has surprised some people given the summer heat and drought across the continent this year. For most of Europe we simply don’t know what El Niño will do this winter.

Multi-model seasonal forecasts for Europe (top) and the winter North Atlantic Oscillation in each strong El Niño winter since 1950 (bottom).

The textbook late-winter pattern (cold northern Europe, wet south) mostly shows up when a sudden stratospheric warming occurs, which can’t be forecast months in advance (Ineson and Scaife 2009). The link may also have weakened since the 1970s. Past strong El Niño winters split 4 to 4 on the North Atlantic Oscillation, 5 of 8 showed a wet UK and central Europe in autumn, and 5 of 8 had a cold Scandinavian late winter. The models (12 of 13) lean wet for the UK and central Europe from October to December this year, but the shifts are small.

The global picture

Because global temperature lags the tropical Pacific by a few months, 2027 is almost certain to be the warmest year on record. My latest forecast, which combines six global temperature datasets with the 14-model ENSO forecast, gives it a 95% to 96% chance, up from around 85% in April. El Niño-driven drought and fire in the tropics also weaken the land carbon sink, which is why the growth rate of CO2 at Mauna Loa hit a record 3.33 ppm in 2024. A similar spike in 2027 is likely. The fourth global coral bleaching event was driven by the 2023-24 El Niño on top of longer-term warming and affected 84% of the world’s reef area. A stronger event arriving before those reefs have recovered raises the risk of widespread mortality next year.

The most reliable El Niño impacts are clustered around the tropical Pacific and in the Americas. Drought in Indonesia, the Philippines, the western Pacific islands and northern South America, and wet winters from the Gulf Coast to Cuba, have shown up in essentially every strong event since the 1950s, and this year’s models agree. Southern Africa, the Amazon and the Horn of Africa are nearly as consistent. Those are the places where preparation (water storage, food reserves, fire management, flood defenses) is urgently needed now before the rains or droughts arrive.

The impact I’d flag most for policymakers is on food. Of the major climate modes of variability, “only El Niño can force globally synchronous crop failures,” because it simultaneously affects breadbaskets on multiple continents. The map shows drought risk for maize in southern Africa, rice in the Philippines and Southeast Asia and a range of crops in northern South America during the first half of 2027.

Its also worth remembering that this event is forecast to be well beyond anything in the observed record, and the two most similar past events (1982-83 and 1997-98) showed the expected impacts in every region on the map.

I’ll update the map when the October forecasts come in, and I’ve put the code and data to reproduce this analysis on my GitHub here.

1 These numbers are from the September initializations of the 14 models tracked on our Climate Dashboard, with each model weighted equally, and use the same convention as NOAA’s Oceanic Niño Index (each month relative to a centered 30-year climatology). The regional impact forecasts in this post use a slightly different set of 13 models that publish rainfall and temperature fields (NMME and Copernicus C3S). For each region, the model check averages every model over the region’s whole season up to February 2027, the last month all 13 cover; seasons that fall mostly after that use the six NMME models, which run through May.

2 Strong events are those with a November–January Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) of at least 1.5C. For each region I compared its average rainfall (or temperature) in the season on the map to ENSO-neutral years, after removing a long-term trend fitted to the neutral years only. An event counts toward the tally if it lands on the expected side of the median neutral year. Percentages of normal are relative to the 1991–2020 average. The main precipitation data are GPCC’s new Precipitation Analysis Monthly Version 2025. The full methods, including all sensitivity tests, are in the GitHub repository.

3 One note on how to read the numbers here: the counts (like 7 of 8) compare each event with a typical ENSO-neutral year, while the percentages (like 70% of normal) are relative to the 1991–2020 average. These usually tell the same story, but not always, because a few very wet or very dry years can pull the average away from a typical year.

4 This is consistent with the long-standing observation that the ENSO-monsoon relationship has weakened since the 1980s. The strongest El Niño on record at the time, 1997, produced a near-normal monsoon even in the developing year (around 102% of normal in our data for north and central India).

This is a re-post from The Climate Brink by Andrew Dessler

The Trump administration is continuing it’s war on climate science. This time, instead of attacking climate science in general, as they tried (and failed) to do with the DOE Climate Working Group, they are going after the U.S. National Climate Assessment (NCA).

The NCA is required at least every four years under the 1990 Global Change Research Act and it serves as the evidentiary basis for a lot of government climate planning in the U.S. Because of this, it’s frequently attacked by the Merchants of Doubt and weakening it is a clear goal of this administration.

There was some chatter that the administration would try to write an entire new version of the NCA that would deny well-established climate science, but my guess is that they have abandoned this. The NCA is a “Highly Influential Scientific Assessment” and therefore must follow specific rules. These include rules about how to select authors, peer review, etc. Following those rules would make it impossible to produce the biased, climate-denying report that they require. And if they don’t follow the rules, they’d lose the inevitable court challenges.

So they instead, they are proposing to amend the Fifth National Climate Assessment (NCA5) by (basically) removing references to the highest emissions scenarios, RCP8.5/SSP5-8.5, which produces the most warming:

This is justified on two grounds: 1) RCP8.5/SSP5-8.5 is not an expected emissions scenario and 2) it is not policy relevant. Point 1 is irrelevant since the NCA5 does not refer to it as business as usual, baseline, etc. And Point 2 is just wrong. My comment below expands on these points.

The USGCRP is presently soliciting comments. You can tell USGCRP understands their arguments are weak since they go out of their way to make it as hard as they can for people to comment on it: They’re limiting the comment window to 15 days and comment length to 3,500 words.

Below is my comment on this. If you see any errors, please leave a comment below or email me.

Public Comment on the Proposed Amendment to the Fifth National Climate Assessment Summary

I write to oppose the proposed amendment. It should be rejected in its entirety.

The amendment rests on two false premises: 1) that NCA5 presents RCP8.5 and SSP5-8.5 results as expected, baseline, or business-as-usual futures, and 2) that RCP8.5/SSP5-8.5 scenario runs are not useful for policy deliberations. As described here, neither of these premises is true.

First, NCA5 accurately describes RCP8.5/SSP5-8.5 as very high emissions scenarios throughout the report. Second, because of uncertainty in many climate parameters (e.g., climate sensitivity), the temperatures produced under RCP8.5/SSP5-8.5 are a reasonable upper bound on what the future climate might be. These scenarios are therefore worth examining not as expected outcomes but as plausible worst cases. Eliminating RCP8.5/SSP5-8.5 therefore commits one of the cardinal sins of risk assessment: assuming the worst-case will not occur.

In addition, NCA5 frequently uses these scenarios in global-warming-level analysis, which evaluates impacts at different levels of warming but makes no claim about how likely any level of warming is.

Overall, removing RCP8.5/SSP5-8.5 analyses would strip sound science from the assessment and make it harder for U.S. policymakers to evaluate the risks of climate change.

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1. NCA5 does not present results with RCP8.5 or SSP5-8.5 as business-as-usual

The term “RCP8.5” and “SSP5-8.5” appear 113 times in NCA5 — 74 mentions of “RCP8.5” and 39 of “SSP5-8.5”. I have inventoried all of them. They appear in 98 passages. Eighty-four of those describe the pathway as a very high scenario and six as a high scenario; the remaining eight carry no descriptor in the sentence itself. NCA5 never refers to RCP8.5 or SSP5-8.5 as business-as-usual or anything similar. Thus, NCA5 already labels the scenario correctly.

2. RCP8.5/SSP5-8.5 emissions may be implausible, but temperatures are not

Much of the RCP8.5 discourse misses a key point: in trying to understand future climate changes, our focus is not primarily on emissions. Rather, it is on temperature, which is what drives most climate impacts. So the key question is: are the temperatures predicted by today’s climate models driven by RCP8.5 implausible?

To quantify this, I ran the FaIR climate emulator (v2.2.4, Leach et al., 2021) between 1750 and 2100 under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 emissions from RCMIP v5.1.0. Climate-response uncertainty was represented by the 841-member calibrated and constrained parameter ensemble of fair-calibrate v1.4.1. This analysis shows that the warmest of the SSP2-4.5 runs reach the median SSP5-8.5 run (Figure 1).

Fig. 1. Global surface air temperature (GSAT) for two different scenarios, SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5. The spread within each scenario represents parameter uncertainty in the model. It shows that 0.5% of SSP2-4.5 runs predict warming above the median SSP5-8.5 run.

Let me be precise about what this result means. The spread within each scenario in Figure 1 is not noise. Each of the 841 parameter defines a plausible set of uncertain parameters that determine how the climate system responds to emissions: how sensitive it is to carbon dioxide, how quickly the ocean takes up heat, how strongly aerosols cool, how the carbon cycle responds, etc. Because the ensemble was constrained against observations, every one of these descriptions is consistent with the warming observed to date.

The real climate system, of course, has one true set of these properties. This analysis shows that we cannot rule out that the real climate system driven by a SSP2-4.5 emissions delivers warming at the end of the century equal to what a typical model produces under SSP5-8.5 (around 4°C).

The median temperatures in the RCP8.5/SSP5-8.5 ensemble are therefore plausible, even if the emissions that produced them are not. As discussed in the next section, this is important for risk assessment.

One might reasonably wonder why we need SSP5-8.5 to estimate the upper limit of SSP2-4.5 runs. Why can’t we just use SSP2-4.5 runs to evaluate the upper limit? You certainly could specifically analyze high-sensitivity models driven by SSP2-4.5 to determine the worst-case scenario, but the available literature doing that is sparse compared to the literature describing RCP8.5/SSP5-8.5 results and doing that would require a wholesale revision of the NCA5 that is not being considered here.

Keeping the RCP8.5/SSP5-8.5 runs as a plausible upper limit is particularly important given that recent research has emphasized the possibility that models are underestimating future warming. Gyuleva et al. (2026), for example, use the Earth’s energy imbalance to suggest that models with higher transient climate response more accurately fit the planetary energy balance observations of the last few decades. Armour et al. (2024) show further that the strongest evidence against high-sensitivity models, their poor reproduction of the warming since the 1970s, does not actually rule those models out.

In addition, the SSP2-4.5 scenario contains enormous amounts of carbon removal (Anderson & Peters, 2016). In 2100, for example, total carbon capture & sequestration (CCS) in that scenario is 32 GtCO2[1]. Our willingness and ability to implement CCS at this level (about 75% of today’s total CO2 emissions) is entirely hypothetical (Daigle & Ravikumar, 2026). It is therefore possible that we will not do so, meaning that SSP2-4.5 will be understating emissions. This would push SSP2-4.5 temperatures even further into the range of temperatures simulated by RCP8.5/SSP5-8.5.

Thus, the median global temperature predicted by today’s models driven by RCP8.5/SSP5-8.5 is a plausible upper limit of warming this century. To the best of my knowledge, there is no analysis that opposes this conclusion and I do not believe the case can be made on current evidence. The proposed amendment does not attempt it.

3. Risk assessment should not confine itself to the most likely outcome

Reaching RCP8.5-level temperatures with SSP2-4.5 emissions, while plausible, is not likely. But that does not mean we should ignore it. In fact, conventional risk management tells us that, when consequences are severe, low-probability extreme outcomes can determine the response.

Levees are built to withstand the hundred-year flood, not the average year. Nuclear power plants’ safety systems are designed against worst-case scenarios, not average operations. Insurance companies maintain solvency by accounting for the worst-case claims scenario, not typical scenarios. In the national defense arena, Vice President Cheney famously said that, if there is a one percent chance that Pakistani scientists are helping al-Qaeda build a nuclear weapon, “we have to treat it as a certainty in terms of our response.”[2]

It is in this role that RCP8.5/SSP5-8.5 is valuable: as a plausible upper bound of the temperature distribution given SSP2-4.5 emissions. This contradicts the claim in the amendment that RCP8.5/SSP5-8.5 is not policy relevant. In fact, adopting this amendment would mean that our risk assessment would ignore tail risk. This would go against best practices of risk assessment. I also note that the amendment presents this as a correction of a scientific error, when in reality it’s a value judgement about what role upper limit risks should play in deciding how to respond to climate change.

4. Global warming levels

The amendment also ignores other ways the NCA5 uses RCP8.5/SSP5-8.5. In many places, NCA5 does not use RCP8.5/SSP5-8.5 as a possible emissions trajectory but to predict impacts at various global warming levels (GWLs). In other words, the analysis estimates the climate impacts when the planet is 2°C, 3°C, or 4°C warmer than preindustrial.

For example, Figures 2.9, 2.10, and 2.13 map U.S. temperature, precipitation, and sea surface temperature at 1.5°, 2°, 3°, and 4°C of global warming; Figures 2.11 and 2.12 map extreme heat and extreme precipitation at 2°C; Figures 1.14 and 1.15 in the Overview and Figure 30.3 for the Pacific Islands do the same. The report’s findings are read off these figures: e.g., at 2°C of global warming, U.S. average temperature very likely rises 4.4°–5.6°F (p. 2-21), tropical cyclone winds are 5% faster (p. 2-26), and Midwest extreme precipitation intensifies by 10%–15% (p. 24-19).

None of these are predictions that these temperatures will occur. Rather, they answer a different question: what happens when the climate reaches that temperature.

The amendment’s plausibility argument does not address this alternate use and it performs none of the analysis needed to separate warming-level results from genuinely emissions-dependent ones. It simply declares RCP8.5/SSP5-8.5 off-limits, which could be used to strike the GWL analysis from the NCA5. It offers no justification for discarding RCP8.5/SSP5-8.5 scenarios in GWL analyses, which is of value even if reaching the top of the temperatures range is unlikely.

Recommendation

Reject the proposed amendment in its entirety.

The amendment fails to correct any errors in the NCA5 and is inconsistent with the underlying science. First, NCA5 accurately describes results with RCP8.5. Second, the amendment declares RCP8.5/SSP5-8.5 off-limits to federal decision-making but doesn’t address the fact that the median temperatures predicted from these scenarios is plausible. Third, it presents an institutional judgment about risk tolerance (that we should ignore worst-case scenarios) as though it were a scientific correction. Fourth, it proposes to jettison research about impacts at global warming levels. Thus, adopting the amendment would leave the country less prepared for future climate impacts, including lower probability but high severity outcomes.

Anderson, K., & Peters, G. (2016). The trouble with negative emissions. Science, 354(6309), 182-183, doi:10.1126/science.aah4567

Armour, K. C., Proistosescu, C., Dong, Y., Hahn, L. C., Blanchard-Wrigglesworth, E., Pauling, A. G., Jnglin Wills, R. C., Andrews, T., Stuecker, M. F., Po-Chedley, S., Mitevski, I., Forster, P. M., & Gregory, J. M. (2024). Sea-surface temperature pattern effects have slowed global warming and biased warming-based constraints on climate sensitivity. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 121(12), e2312093121, doi:10.1073/pnas.2312093121

Daigle, H., & Ravikumar, A. (2026). Can we sequester carbon fast enough? Growing disconnect between models and reality. Environmental Research: Energy, 3(3), 031001, doi:10.1088/2753-3751/ae987b

Gyuleva, G., Fischer, E., Knutti, R., & Sippel, S. (2026). Recent Temperature and Energy Imbalance Trends Point to Higher Estimates of Future Warming. Earth’s Future, 14(8), e2026EF008356, doi:10.1029/2026EF008356

Leach, N. J., Jenkins, S., Nicholls, Z., Smith, C. J., Lynch, J., Cain, M., Walsh, T., Wu, B., Tsutsui, J., & Allen, M. R. (2021). FaIRv2.0.0: a generalized impulse response model for climate uncertainty and future scenario exploration. Geosci. Model Dev., 14(5), 3007-3036, doi:10.5194/gmd-14-3007-2021

This is a re-post from Yale Climate Connections by Barbara Grady

As the Western United States grapples with severe drought, leading cities to scramble for water and farmers to abandon some crops, a new scientific study has found that 122 major oil, gas, coal, and cement companies and state-owned operations are partially responsible.

The study found that climate change from all climate-warming greenhouse gas emissions over the last 70 years has resulted in a 36% decline in annual average mountain snowpacks, the major source of surface water in Western states – and that about 40% of that decline is linked to the climate pollution caused by just 122 companies.

The annual loss attributable to those 122 companies is equivalent to the amount of water held by Lake Mead, the nation’s largest reservoir, at full capacity. 

The authors of the peer-reviewed paper, “Carbon emissions exacerbating the Western US water crisis,” also found that global warming from greenhouse gas emissions has led to a 13% decline in average annual streamflows from mountains to the lower-lying areas that depend on them, and to a 4.3% increase in the need for agricultural irrigation. The study attributed about half the streamflow declines and roughly half the increased need for irrigation to the warming caused by the 122 companies. In other words, those companies’ products resulted in a 6% fall in streamflows in the region, according to the study. 

Nine scientists from the University of California at Merced and the Union of Concerned Scientists contributed to the study, published August 25 in the Nature magazine affiliate Communications Earth & Environment. 

The West relies on snowpack 

Summers are dry in the Western U.S. 

Precipitation occurs in winter, with much of it stored as snowpack in the mountains. The West’s multibillion-dollar agriculture industry and the reservoirs supplying cities and towns in 11 states depend on melted snow carried by rivers, streams, and water conveyance systems in late spring and summer. If the snowpack is scant or if snow melts early, water shortages can occur in summer when water demand is highest. 

The West’s historic megadrought has persisted for two decades. With less surface water available, farmers have had to pump more groundwater for irrigation, depleting aquifers so much that the ground is sinking in many agricultural areas. Some farmers in the Southwest have had to abandon crops or fallow fields for lack of sufficient water. Corpus Christi, Las Vegas, Los Angeles and Phoenix are just some of the cities facing severe water shortages.

Tying drought to specific companies 

Emily Williams, lead study author and a postdoctoral research scientist at the University of California at Merced, said in an interview that the study allowed scientists to disentangle how much worse water scarcity became over the decade 2014 to 2024 because of climate-change-induced atmospheric warming, as well as how much worse it became specifically because of the warming emissions generated by 122 companies and their products. 

“It lets us get beyond how much more intense climate change is becoming to look at specific impacts like snowpack decline as well as specific sources” of emissions, she said. Her team found impacts on water resources “not just from climate change but because of emissions traceable to specific sources.” 

The 122 companies cited in the study are the world’s biggest producers of climate-warming greenhouse gas emissions cumulatively up to 2024; they are all coal, oil, gas, and cement producers. That list, known in climate science as the carbon majors and compiled by other scientists, is based on publicly reported coal, oil, gas, and cement production data along with scientific formulas for calculating emissions per unit of product produced. Since 2024, the list has grown to include 178 entities.

Chevron, ExxonMobil, BP, and Shell are the fourth-, fifth-, eighth-, and ninth-biggest cumulative emitters of greenhouse gases in the world, according to the most recent version of the list. The world’s three highest emitters are state-owned coal, oil, and gas companies from the former Soviet Union, China, and Saudi Arabia (Saudi Aramco). U.S. coal producers Core Natural Resources and Peabody Energy are also in the top 25 carbon majors. 

The study authors based their calculations on emissions since 1950, rather than earlier, because that was the decade when major oil and gas companies began to suspect that use of their products would cause changes to the Earth’s climate. Engineers at ExxonMobil who studied the issue determined that burning large amounts of fossil fuels would affect planetary climate systems. After its engineers shared their conclusions with management in the 1970s, ExxonMobil at first expanded that research to learn more and then – a decade later – pivoted to hiding the scientific findings and denying the existence of climate change, as reported in the Pulitzer Prize finalist series “The Road Not Taken” by Inside Climate News. Other major oil companies did the same. 

The study authors wrote that “roughly 70% of global industrial carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions since 1854 are traceable to 122 fossil fuel producers and cement manufacturers (“Carbon Majors”), and ~97% of these emissions occurred after 1950.” 

U.S. oil companies remain silent

When asked on August 27 for a comment on the water crisis study, Chevron – the largest U.S. emitter since 1950 – sent an automatic thank-you note but did not respond to the question by publication. 

Chevron’s second quarter earnings report, released August 12, highlighted record-breaking oil production. The report said the company “achieved new U.S. upstream production record of nearly 2.1 million barrels of oil equivalent per day and record U.S. refinery throughput of over 1 million barrels per day” as well as “competitive growth” in operations “around the globe.” Chevron also has embarked on developing oil resources in Venezuela, which has large deposits of heavy crude – a variety of oil that’s highly polluting to process. 

A media relations receptionist for ExxonMobil, the second-largest U.S. emitter, politely pledged to convey the reporter’s question to the media relations team, but the company did not respond. 

The methodology that Williams and her eight colleagues used involved overlaying observational data of recorded temperatures, precipitation, relative humidity, and hydrologic conditions annually over the decade 2014 to 2024 in seven water basins across the Western states with global climate models. Then they introduced emissions data in three variable scenarios to disentangle the effect of emissions from the carbon majors. One scenario included all human-caused emissions since 1950, the second included no anthropogenic emissions, and the third scenario excluded emissions traced to the 122 companies. 

“By comparing these scenarios and using pattern scaling, we calculated how much of the observed changes in snowpack, streamflow, and irrigation demand are attributable to climate change and specifically to emissions from the Carbon Majors,” the authors wrote.

Governments seek damages from polluters 

The study is part of a growing body of what’s called attribution science. As scientific consensus has solidified around climate change resulting from atmospheric warming caused by the burning of fossil fuels, emissions of methane, and destruction of forests, scientists are looking more deeply at the impacts of that warming, how to minimize future warming, and the specific sources of the emissions. 

Similar studies have attributed the size of areas burned in intense wildfires, specific measures of sea level rise, and the increased likelihood and intensity of extreme heat events to emissions from the carbon majors. 

Read: Scientists agree: Climate change is real and caused by people

“We have a choice of how much worse climate change is going to get, and that is a function of how much emissions we allow,” Williams said. She said some changes to the planet’s climate system are already irreversible, but we do have a choice to avoid others and the worsening of some that are already baked in.

Many states and cities around the world are taking the biggest climate polluters to court in hopes of getting financial resources to help them address damages from extreme hurricanes, wildfires and floods whose intensification can be linked to climate change. 

Two states – New York and Vermont – have passed climate superfund laws requiring that the biggest historical emitters help pay for climate damages incurred in their states. Many other states, including California, are considering such legislation. New York’s law was recently struck down in court, but the state also plans to appeal the decision. Meanwhile, several states are suing major fossil fuel companies over the damage they allege was wrought by their emissions.

“As climate impacts become increasingly severe, communities will be asking for more action” to help recover from damage and adapt to climate changes, said Carly Phillips, another author of the water study and senior research scientist at the Union of Concerned Scientists. 

Communities, states and small countries are bearing an unfair share of the costs of the impacts of emissions, Phillips contended, compared with the companies that ignored the looming crisis for decades and even lobbied Congress against taking action sooner.

 “Given the outsized contribution of certain entities to the problem – 122 companies is a very small number – there should be some accountability,” she said.

A listing of 28 news and opinion articles we found interesting and shared on social media during the past week: Sun, September 20, 2026 thru Sat, September 26, 2026. Stories we promoted this week, by category:

Climate Policy and Politics (8 items)

• Interview with Senator Sheldon Whitehouse: ''Call Out the Corruption Propelling the US Climate Retreat'' The Rhode Island senator, who could lead the Judiciary Committee if Democrats win in November, urges stronger messaging and a focus on Supreme Court reform. Inside Climate News, Marianne Lavelle, Sep 20, 2026.
• Whitehouse: Call Out the Corruption Propelling the US Climate Retreat The Rhode Island senator, who could lead the Judiciary Committee if Democrats win in November, urges stronger messaging and a focus on Supreme Court reform. Inside Climate News, Marianne Lavelle, Sep 20, 2026.
• Let`s Talk Climate Annual NY Times climate conference opens in difficult times for sensible climate policy. NYT > Climate and Environment, Katrin Bennhold, Sep 20, 2026.
• We Need to Stop Talking Like Climate Change Is Partisan 'People who raise awareness about climate change know that how you communicate your message matters, and there’s much to learn from them.'' TIME, Katharine Hayhoe and Dana R. Fisher, Sep 21, 2026.
• How Saudi oil scientists ended up working on the world`s most important climate reports Guardian investigation reveals fossil fuel links of IPCC authors, with experts declaring the body’s conflict of interest policy ‘not fit for purpose’ The Guardian, Damian Carrington, Eoghan Gilmartin, Silvia Lazzaris, Rita Cruz, Simon Guichard and David Haas, Sep 21, 2026.
• Effort begins to fill the void left by terminated US climate report First paper added to community collection is a roadmap for research. Ars Technica, Scott K. Johnson, Sep 22, 2026.
• The climate scientist Kate Marvel sheds light on why she left NASA this year. One of the most prominent climate scientists to resign from the federal government during the second Trump administration described the “chaotic” conditions inside NASA that led to her departure. NYT, Raymond Zhong, Sep 23, 2026.
• Trump cut their climate jobs. This secretive network found them new ones. Climate Reserve is quietly building a lifeline for America's lost climate workforce, one job at a time. Grist, Kate Yoder, Sep 24, 2026.

Climate Change Impacts (4 items)

• Losing your way of life to climate change matters — and we need a way to measure it Climate losses extend beyond property and income. Policymakers need ways to assess what people value, experience and ultimately stand to lose. Nature, Manasi Kumar, Sep 21, 2026.
• The worst El Niño in recorded history is brewing — here’s how governments must prepare From southern Africa to the Amazon, the risks are mounting and the window for action is rapidly closing. Nature, Zeke Hausfather, Sep 22, 2026.
• Scientists link fossil fuel producers to the West`s worsening water shortages A new study blames 122 companies for contributing to severe drought in the region. Yale Climate Connections, Barbara Grady, Sep 22, 2026.
• An Existential Threat to the Oil Industry Can fossil energy giants be held responsible for extreme weather? The Atlantic, Ross Andersen, Sep 23, 2026.

Climate Education and Communication (3 items)

• Why I turned down funding for my Miami story Behind-the-scenes ethical choices by an accomplished climate communicator. HEATED, Emily Atkin, Sep 21, 2026.
• How to stay smart in the age of AI: the science of critical thinking There is growing concern that AI can blunt memory and reasoning. But science shows ways to keep the brain sharp. Nature, Helen Pearson, Sep 23, 2026.
• Twenty years after An Inconvenient Truth, Al Gore still believes in the climate fight: `We are going to win this` Former US vice-president still has optimism for climate advocacy two decades after groundbreaking documentary The Guardian, Oliver Milman, Sep 23, 2026.

Miscellaneous (3 items)

• 2026 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #38 A listing of 28 news and opinion articles we found interesting and shared on social media during the past week: Sun, September 13, 2026 thru Sat, September 19, 2026. Skeptical Science, Bärbel Winkler & Doug Bostrom, Sep 19, 2026.
• Energy Transition is No Longer About Climate Change 'Global Energy analyst Jeff Currie tells Bloomberg the Energy Transition is “TurboCharged” – but it’s not about climate, and maybe never was. By far the biggest growth in energy consumption is going to come from the developing world in Asia and Africa, and those countries are no longer willing to be held hostage to fossil fuels.'' This is Not Cool, greenman3610, Sep 19, 2026.
• Jensen Huang talks about AI and climate change like a supervillain With AI, he says, ‘in order to save you, they’ve got to hurt you first.‘ The Verge, Justine Calma, Sep 24, 2026.

Climate Law and Justice (2 items)

• Suncor Helped Lead Climate Denial Group Spreading ‘Uncertainties’ With a U.S. Supreme Court decision looming on whether the company can be held liable for climate deception, internal documents show a campaign to question science. Desmog, Geoff Dembicki, Sep 21, 2026.
• Judge Dismisses Unusual Climate Suit Claiming Oil Giants Broke Antitrust Law The lawsuit, filed by Michigan, claimed oil companies colluded to obstruct solar power and to misrepresent climate risks, making energy costlier. NYT, Karen Zraick, Sep 22, 2026.

Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation (2 items)

• For Climate-Vulnerable Countries, Debt Costs 25 Times More Than Climate Action As climate disasters intensify, mounting debt is leaving vulnerable countries with less money to prepare, recover and invest in climate action. Inside Climate News, Alissa de Chassey, Sep 19, 2026.
• `Way Too Hot`: Britain`s Hospitals Were Not Built for 96-Degree Summers Patients and workers in one of the country’s largest hospitals sweltered in a heat wave last month. Experts say the whole country must urgently adapt. New York Time, Megan Specia and Andrew Testa, Sep 21, 2026.

Climate Science and Research (2 items)

• Skeptical Science New Research for Week #39 2026 Skeptical Science's latest weekly survey of research on anthropogenic climate change, climate change impacts, and how we're dealing with it all. Skeptical Science, Doug Bostrom & Marc Kodack, Sep 23, 2026.
• `Robust little` vessel begins treacherous 22,000km journey around Antarctica in the name of climate science World news The Guardian, Petra Stock, Sep 25, 2026.

Public Misunderstandings about Climate Science (2 items)

• Trump renames AI in off-the-rails rant against ‘hoax’ concerns Trump Truth Social post likens AI skeptics to global warming and climate change warnings from environmentalists. The Independent, John Bowden, Sep 21, 2026.
• AI`s Meet-Cute With Climate Denial Just in time for Climate Week NYC, President Trump calls concerns over global warming and artificial intelligence a “hoax.” Inside Climate News, By Dan Gearino, Sep 24, 2026.

Public Misunderstandings about Climate Solutions (2 items)

• Fact brief - Does wind power require backup from fossil fuels? Skeptical Science's latest climate solutions denial debunking, created in cooperation with Gigafact and Columbia Univesity's Sabin Center for Climate Change Law. Skeptical Science, Sue Bin Park, Sep 22, 2026.
• Coalition vows to 'take a chainsaw' to climate laws, offshore wind The Coalition would cancel offshore wind zones, scrap climate laws for heavy industry and car makers, and attempt to lift the ban on nuclear if it wins power. ABC News, Jake Evans, Sep 23, 2026.

If you happen upon high quality climate-science and/or climate-myth busting articles from reliable sources while surfing the web, please feel free to submit them via this Google form so that we may share them widely. Thanks!

Open access notables

The Increasing Incidence of Boreal and Western U.S. Forest Wildfires and Its Causes: An Overview, Wallace et al., Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society

This overview of the voluminous wildfire literature addresses the following questions: “How seriously is the current spate of wildfires impacting the boreal forests and the forests of the western United States? Is the current rate of burning of these forests unprecedented? Has it been systematically increasing over the past few decades and, if so, is it in response to human-induced global warming?” The article contains diagrams and tables based on a suite of fire-related datasets: satellite measurements of burned area, fire-related carbon emissions, aerosol optical depth, dating back to around the year 2000, and longer ground-based records of area burned by fires in the western United States. The graphics and tables reveal the remarkable extent of the forested area burned. The average area burned per year has increased by roughly a factor of three since the year 2000. The area burned by severe fires with areas > 100 km2 has been increasing more rapidly than the area burned by smaller fires. Wildfire smoke has also increased appreciably over much of North America. Forested burned area and fire-related carbon emissions are highly sensitive to measures of aridity on time scales ranging from days to decades. Aridity has increased, mainly in response to the warming trend, which is comparable in magnitude to that in climate model simulations of the response to rising greenhouse gas concentrations. The evidence presented herein supports the widely held belief that the recent increase in wildfires is mainly due to human-induced global warming.

Net Groundwater Recharge in California Occurs Primarily During Above-Average Snowpack Years, Reager et al., Geophysical Research Letters

In a new application of GRACE and GRACE-FO satellite observations, we estimate basin-scale net groundwater recharge rates for the combined Sacramento, San Joaquin, and Tulare basins encompassing California's Central Valley aquifer. Net recharge is calculated as the temporal derivative of groundwater storage anomalies and compared with precipitation and snow water equivalent over a fixed study area. Net positive recharge is rare, occurring in only six water years since 2004, and is consistently associated with years of above-average Sierra Nevada snowpack. Across the observational record, net positive recharge is observed only in years when snow water equivalent exceeds approximately 21 km3 (17 MAF; ∼121% of the 20-year mean value), with the largest recharge event coinciding with the exceptionally wet winter of water year 2023. These results suggest that above-average snowpack conditions, rather than rainfall alone, are an important enabling condition for basin-scale groundwater recharge under a warming climate.

Concurrent Eurasian Heatwaves Will Intensify Beyond the Mean Warming, Xu et al., Geophysical Research Letters

Heatwaves occurring at the same time over Europe and North China are among the most common simultaneous climate extremes in the Northern Hemisphere. These events are linked by a large-scale atmospheric circulation pattern, the British–Baikal Corridor pattern, which produces high-pressure systems over both regions simultaneously. Using a large ensemble of climate model simulations, we find that these concurrent heatwaves will become much more severe in the future. Importantly, they intensify faster than average temperature increases due to global warming. Even after accounting for background warming, temperatures during these events exceed the regional mean warming by about 0.3°C on average and by more than 0.5°C locally. Surprisingly, the reasons for this additional intensification differ between the two regions. Over North China, the atmospheric circulation pattern strengthens, bringing clearer skies and greater solar heating. Over Europe, however, the circulation pattern weakens, but heatwaves still intensify because drier soils provide less evaporative cooling. These findings challenge the common assumption that the same weather pattern amplifies heat equally wherever it occurs. They also suggest that future heat risks may be underestimated if assessments rely only on average warming, particularly when heatwaves strike multiple regions simultaneously.

Defending the status quo: The role of system justification in public opposition to ambitious climate policy and energy system change, Lloyd et al., Journal of Environmental Psychology

In recent years, environmental psychologists have argued that our field must conduct more solutions-focussed and system-level research if we want to contribute to ambitious and effective climate action. In this paper, we propose that system justification offers a promising pathway towards achieving both of these goals, and investigate its influence on three societally-impactful outcomes: support for climate policy, support for a just energy transition, and endorsement of climate delay discourses. We also test whether experimentally inducing hope could offer a solution to these proposed deleterious effects. We conduct this research in small-to-medium sized communities in Western Canada, many of which are dependent upon fossil-fuels for their continued existence, and thus strongly oppose decarbonization. Using an online survey of these communities (N = 3,400) we find that system justification consistently predicts lower support for climate policies, greater endorsement of climate delay discourses, and lower support for a just energy transition. Additionally, moderation analyses reveal that this relationship is stronger for those with greater proximity to the fossil-fuel industry, and that our hope manipulation had no effect. We explore the policy implications of these findings, arguing that policymakers should (1) aim to narratively detach the status quo from the economic system, and (2) design just transitions policies which act to maintain fossil-fuel communities’ current way of life, rather than trying to improve it. These findings extend system justification theory to three new societally-impactful outcomes; demonstrate its utility for policymaking; and highlight its potential to contribute to transformation-oriented research in environmental psychology.

From this week's government/NGO section:

Findings from a 2026 Survey of Adults Age 18 and Older, Energy Policy Institute at the University of Chicago and the AP-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research

The authors found that 53% of Americans are extremely or very concerned about the environmental effects of AI, up from 41% who said the same in 2025. Younger adults ages 18-29 have become particularly concerned, increasing from 38% last year to 60% today and moving from levels similar to other age groups to the highest level of concern. Forty-seven percent of Americans think AI will do more to hurt rather than help the environment, up from 33% who said the same in 2025. The authors also explored attitudes toward climate change, energy policy, and electric vehicles (EVs). Most Americans agree that climate change is happening and is caused by human activity, a trend that has remained stable in recent years. There is a large partisan divide in these attitudes, however, with Democrats more likely than Republicans to believe climate change is occurring (92% vs. 55%) and is caused mostly by human activity (68% vs. 34%). About 2 in 3 believe that oil and gas companies, the federal government, and large businesses and corporations have a lot of responsibility to address climate change, while just 4 in 10 say the same about developing countries and individual people.

In Hottest Summer on Record, 2 in 3 Americans Say Climate Change Is Increasing Heat-Related Illnesses, Annenberg Public Policy Center, University of Pennsylvania

Nearly two-thirds of the American public say climate change is increasing the risk of respiratory diseases and heat- and insect-related illnesses. The author's survey, which was conducted Aug. 4-17, 2026, among 1,904 empaneled U.S. adults, found that 76% report that extreme outdoor heat affected their daily activities at least sometimes in the past year and 38% say poor air quality resulting from wildfire smoke did so. Extreme heat is affecting the everyday lives of most Americans. Nearly two-thirds of Americans (65%) say that climate change is increasing the risk of heat-related illnesses, respiratory diseases, and insect-borne diseases. This is unchanged from August 2025 (65%) and July 2024 (67%) but is significantly higher than 58% in November 2023. Americans generally recognize that heat waves are on the rise. Nearly two-thirds (62%) say U.S. heat waves are becoming more frequent and intense than in the past, statistically unchanged from 61% in August 2025, 65% in July 2024, and 58% in November 2023. Of the four extreme weather events measured in the survey, more Americans report that their daily activities were impacted at least sometimes by extreme outdoor heat (76%) and poor air quality resulting from wildfire smoke (38%). As one would expect, fewer say they were impacted at least sometimes by flooding (20%) and tornadoes/hurricanes (11%), since these events are less frequent. 87 articles in 46 journals by 618 contributing authors

Physical science of climate change, effects

Amplified Cloud-Phase Responses Over Global Mountain Regions Under Climate Warming, Zhang et al., AGU Advances Open Access pdf 10.1029/2026av002380

Anthropogenic Warming Weakens Mild Offshore Winds in Southern California but Not the Extreme Fire-Weather Winds, Madakumbura et al., Earth s Future Open Access pdf 10.1029/2026ef008422

Emerging Divergence Between Dry- and Humid-Heat in China Under Weakening Temperature-Humidity Coupling, Zhu et al., Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres 10.1029/2026jd046959

Future Reduction of North Pacific Subtropical Mode Water: Its Impacts on Physical and Biogeochemical Conditions in the North Pacific Subtropical Gyre, Sugimoto, Journal of Geophysical Research Oceans Open Access 10.1029/2026jc024776

On the Timescales of Atmospheric Adjustments to Contrail Cirrus Formation, Quarroz et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1029/2026gl125935

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
A holistic platform for accelerating sorbent-based carbon capture, Nature, 10.1038/s41586-024-07683-8 95 cites.

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Observations of climate change, effects

Earthquake-triggered cascading hazards under Arctic amplification, Melo et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Open Access 10.1073/pnas.2617210123

Long-term weakening of extreme cold stress in eastern China, Li et al., Weather and Climate Extremes Open Access 10.1016/j.wace.2026.100960

Observational Evidence for Accelerated Warming and Salinification Propagating Into the Deep Mediterranean, Terzi? & Vilibi?, Geophysical Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1029/2026gl124518

Spatiotemporal variations in snowline altitude across the High Mountain Asia from 1990 to 2024 Based on Landsat Data, Wang et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2026.09.007

The Increasing Incidence of Boreal and Western U.S. Forest Wildfires and Its Causes: An Overview, Wallace et al., Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 10.1175/bams-d-25-0193.1

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Sketching the spatial disparities in heatwave trends by changing atmospheric teleconnections in the Northern Hemisphere, Nature Communications, 10.1038/s41467-024-52254-0 42 cites.

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Instrumentation & observational methods of climate change, effects

A deep learning framework for gridding daily climate variables from a sparse station network, Dumitrescu, Geoscientific model development Open Access 10.5194/gmd-19-8895-2026

Attribution estimates for similar extremes are robust across event definitions, Otto et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-026-04053-2

Improving global and regional ocean heat content by consistently combining GRACE gravity, satellite altimetry and Argo profile observations in a joint inversion framework, Uebbing et al., Earth system science data Open Access 10.5194/essd-18-6945-2026

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Are Our Climate Data Fit for Your Purpose?, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 10.1175/bams-d-23-0295.1 10 cites.

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Modeling, simulation & projection of climate change, effects

Concurrent Eurasian Heatwaves Will Intensify Beyond the Mean Warming, Xu et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2026gl123850

Future Redistribution of North Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Risk in Two Contrasting CMIP6 Scenarios, Lele et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1029/2026gl123424

Projected Changes in Reference Evapotranspiration Across Indian Climate Regimes Using Bias-Corrected CMIP6 Simulations, Nayak et al., International Journal of Climatology 10.1002/joc.70603

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Abrupt increase in Arctic-Subarctic wildfires caused by future permafrost thaw, Nature Communications, 10.1038/s41467-024-51471-x 42 cites.

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Advancement of climate & climate effects modeling, simulation & projection

A new Earth Observation–based WRF configuration for urban regional climate simulations over Paris, Kyriakidis et al., Geoscientific model development Open Access 10.5194/gmd-19-8709-2026

Downscaling of Temperatures Over the Eastern Mediterranean for the 21st Century, Gelman et al., International Journal of Climatology Open Access pdf 10.1002/joc.70519

New Constraint on Future Ocean Heat Uptake Revealed by Considering Model Spread of Radiative Forcing, Wu & Gregory, Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2026gl123530

The Cloud Feedback Model Intercomparison Project (CFMIP) contribution to CMIP7, Ceppi et al., Geoscientific model development Open Access pdf 10.5194/gmd-19-8693-2026

Using Rapid Temperature Falls to Estimate Future Strong Cold Front Frequency in CMIP6 Climate Projections, Corrales et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1029/2026gl124031

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
A Comprehensive Evaluation of Mean and Extreme Climate for the Conformal Cubic Atmospheric Model (CCAM), Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, 10.1175/jamc-d-24-0004.1 16 cites.

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Cryosphere & climate change

Accelerated mass loss of glaciers across Alaska since the Little Ice Age, Carrivick et al., Scientific Reports Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41598-026-70307-w

Cross-Basin Synergistic Effects Stall Summer Sea Ice Decline in the Chukchi Sea, Dong et al., Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres 10.1029/2026jd047482

Enhanced Erosion Across a Transition From Continuous to Discontinuous Permafrost in Alaska, Özpolat et al., Earth s Future Open Access 10.1029/2025ef007889

Feedbacks and timescales in the modelled transient response of debris-covered glaciers, Hardmeier et al., cryosphere Open Access 10.5194/tc-20-5365-2026

Modelling climate-induced instability of ice-rich permafrost slopes, Aga et al., cryosphere Open Access pdf 10.5194/tc-20-5225-2026

Net Groundwater Recharge in California Occurs Primarily During Above-Average Snowpack Years, Reager et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1029/2026gl122396

Parameterizing tidal-water intrusions in long-term Antarctic ice-sheet projections, Juárez-Martínez et al., cryosphere Open Access 10.5194/tc-20-5345-2026

Seasonal Response of the Arctic Sea Ice to Meltwater Runoff from the Greenland Ice Sheet, Liang et al., Journal of Physical Oceanography 10.1175/jpo-d-26-0025.1

Spatiotemporal variations in snowline altitude across the High Mountain Asia from 1990 to 2024 Based on Landsat Data, Wang et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2026.09.007

Temporal evolution of the Petermann Ice Shelf estuary constrained by satellite remote sensing observations, Savignano et al., cryosphere Open Access 10.5194/tc-20-5247-2026

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Lake ice quality in a warming world, Nature Reviews Earth & Environment, 10.1038/s43017-024-00590-6 33 cites.

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Sea level & climate change

Anatomy of Interannual to Decadal Sea Level Changes in the GECCO3 Ocean Synthesis, Stammer et al., Journal of Geophysical Research Oceans Open Access 10.1029/2026jc024340

Paleoclimate & paleogeochemistry
Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
A 485-million-year history of Earth’s surface temperature, Science, 10.1126/science.adk3705 242 cites.

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Biology & climate change, related geochemistry

Climate change affects the distribution of cacti species of the genus Melocactus in the Brazilian Caatinga, Cavalcante et al., Tropical Ecology Open Access 10.1007/s42965-026-00444-w

Detection of emergent multiple predator effects in a warming world, Davidson et al., Biology Letters Open Access 10.1098/rsbl.2026.0257

Escalating Ecological Droughts Driven by Compound Soil and Atmospheric Dryness, Song et al., Global Change Biology 10.1111/gcb.71102

Global Projections of Coral Reef Sediment Dissolution in the 21st Century, Yan et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1029/2026gl125720

GROWTH RESPONSES OF CHIHUAHUA PINE (PINUS LEIOPHYLLA) OVER 128 YEARS OF WARMING AND PRECIPITATION REGIME SHIFTS, Todd et al., Dendrochronologia Open Access 10.1016/j.dendro.2026.126614

Identifying future climate refugia in central European mountain forests, Berre et al., Journal of Ecology Open Access 10.1111/1365-2745.70439

Increasingly synchronous water limitation portends resilience declines for whitebark pine, Friedman & Germain, Dendrochronologia 10.1016/j.dendro.2026.126615

Reforestation Under Climate Change—A Cross-Regional Deadwood Retention Experiment to Develop Multifunctional Forests on Disturbed Norway Spruce Areas, Putzenlechner et al., Ecology and Evolution Open Access pdf 10.1002/ece3.74357

Spatial Variability in Phytoplankton Response to Projected Increases in Iron and Temperature in the Ross Sea, Cristi et al., Journal of Geophysical Research Oceans Open Access pdf 10.1029/2026jc024364

Summer Heat Stress Downregulates Photochemistry in Coast Redwoods, Klinek et al., Journal of Geophysical Research Biogeosciences Open Access 10.1029/2026jg010052

Synthesis of scale-dependent plant biodiversity change in climate warming experiments, Korell et al., Ecology Open Access 10.1002/ecy.70486

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Nonanthropocentric climate ethics, Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews Climate Change, 10.1002/wcc.131 72 cites.

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GHG sources & sinks, flux, related geochemistry

Abundance of Fe/Al Oxides Governs Soil Organic Carbon Stability in Wetlands Under Drying Conditions, Yao et al., Global Change Biology Open Access pdf 10.1111/gcb.71109

Climate and penguin-mediated carbon burial hotspots in coastal lakes of East Antarctica, Zhao et al., Global and Planetary Change 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2026.105730

Forest Carbon Exchange Dynamics and Integrated Carbon Budget of a Subtropical Island Ecosystem, Han et al., Journal of Geophysical Research Biogeosciences 10.1029/2026jg010032

Heterogeneity in Permafrost Organic Matter Molecular Composition With Depth and Ramifications Upon Thaw in the Western Siberian Lowlands, Anderson et al., Journal of Geophysical Research Biogeosciences 10.1029/2026jg010169

Modeling forest soil organic carbon dynamics under seasonal freeze–thaw cycles: implications for carbon sequestration in cold-region forest ecosystems, Gao et al., Frontiers in Forests and Global Change Open Access pdf 10.3389/ffgc.2026.1939588

Natural wetland methane emissions simulated by ICON-XPP, Wilkenskjeld et al., Biogeosciences Open Access 10.5194/bg-23-6583-2026

Net carbon losses in Central African forests revealed by high-resolution biomass change maps, Wan et al., Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-026-77531-y

Nonlinear thermal responses of soil respiration temperature sensitivity under climate change, Yang et al., Global and Planetary Change 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2026.105727

Seven-year continuous measurement of CO2 and CH4 at Atlas Mohammed V atmospheric research station in Northwest Africa, Ouchen et al., Atmospheric Environment Open Access 10.1016/j.atmosenv.2026.122365

Structural Diversity Amplifies the Effects of Functional Diversity on Forest Carbon Storage Across Stand Development, Wang et al., Global Ecology and Biogeography Open Access pdf 10.1111/geb.70309

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Emerging multiscale insights on microbial carbon use efficiency in the land carbon cycle, Nature Communications, 10.1038/s41467-024-52160-5 119 cites.

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CO2 capture, sequestration science & engineering

Carbon sequestration potential of tree planting under future climate scenarios in the Guangdong–Hong Kong–Macao Greater Bay Area, China, Zhao et al., Urban Climate 10.1016/j.uclim.2026.103128

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Feasible deployment of carbon capture and storage and the requirements of climate targets, Nature Climate Change, 10.1038/s41558-024-02104-0 170 cites.

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Decarbonization

Flash energy droughts in solar and wind resources under climate change, Lin et al., Nature Climate Change 10.1038/s41558-026-02753-3

Hydrogen Storage Technologies: Materials Innovation and System-Level Challenges for a Carbon-Neutral Future, Pranto et al., Advanced Energy and Sustainability Research Open Access 10.1002/aesr.70256

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Diverse decarbonization pathways under near cost-optimal futures, Nature Communications, 10.1038/s41467-024-52433-z 43 cites.

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Geoengineering climate

Mapping justice claims for solar geoengineering, Jinnah et al., PLOS Climate Open Access pdf 10.1371/journal.pclm.0001054

Uneven Responses of Regional Terrestrial Ecosystem Carbon Turnover Time to Stratospheric Aerosol Injection, Park et al., Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research) Open Access 10.5281/zenodo.21390921

Black carbon
Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
The politics of knowledge in black carbon mitigation: Policy entrepreneurship of Finnish actors and the Climate and Clean Air Coalition, Environmental Science & Policy, 10.1016/j.envsci.2024.103881 3 cites.

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Aerosols
Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Global aerosol retrieval over land from Landsat imagery integrating Transformer and Google Earth Engine, Remote Sensing of Environment, 10.1016/j.rse.2024.114404 45 cites.

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Climate change communications & cognition

Affective divisions and climate policy polarization, Bäck et al., Environmental Politics Open Access pdf 10.1080/09644016.2026.2731596

Future Before My Eyes: How Psychological Distance and Immersive Presentations Relate to Climate Emotions, Schroeder et al., Journal of Environmental Psychology 10.1016/j.jenvp.2026.103213

Simple logic warnings improve climate argument evaluation across beliefs and partisanship, Bagó & Purcell, Nature Climate Change 10.1038/s41558-026-02754-2

Simple logic warnings improve climate argument evaluation across beliefs and partisanship, Bagó & Purcell, Nature Climate Change 10.1038/s41558-026-02754-2

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Durably reducing conspiracy beliefs through dialogues with AI, Science, 10.1126/science.adq1814 305 cites.

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Agronomy, animal husbundry, food production & climate change

Genetically engineered crops increase climate resilience of US fields, [authors did not process], Nature Climate Change 10.1038/s41558-026-02750-6

Historical dynamics of agricultural carbon emissions in the North China plain over the past 300 years, Ye et al., Frontiers in Environmental Science Open Access pdf 10.3389/fenvs.2026.1831579

Long-Term Sustainability of Direct Straw Return Challenged by Soil Carbon Saturation and Emission Trade-Offs, Liu et al., Global Change Biology 10.1111/gcb.71120

Stage-Specific Associations Between Extreme Climate Events and Crop Failures Across China, Huang et al., Earth s Future Open Access 10.1029/2026ef008789

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Nexus among climate change, food systems, and human health: An interdisciplinary research framework in the Global South, Environmental Science & Policy, 10.1016/j.envsci.2024.103885 23 cites.

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Hydrology, hydrometeorology & climate change

Future changes and drivers of socioeconomic exposure to extreme precipitation in the Huai River Basin, Jiang et al., Natural Hazards 10.1007/s11069-026-08417-x

Governance barriers to climate change adaptation in regional catchment management, Kennedy et al., Environmental Science & Policy 10.1016/j.envsci.2026.104491

Net Groundwater Recharge in California Occurs Primarily During Above-Average Snowpack Years, Reager et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1029/2026gl122396

The 2025–2026 Iberian Atmospheric Rivers Exhibited Moisture Transport Resembling the Early SSP5-8.5 Climate Response, Fernández-Alvarez et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2026gl123799

Variability and response to climate change of precipitation recycling ratio in the water source conservation area of the upper Yellow River, Yang et al., Atmospheric Research 10.1016/j.atmosres.2026.109333

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Spatiotemporal patterns in persistent precipitation extremes of the Chinese mainland (1961–2022) and association with the dynamic factors, Atmospheric Research, 10.1016/j.atmosres.2024.107600 14 cites.

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Climate change economics
Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
The ocean carbon sink enhances countries’ inclusive wealth and reduces the cost of national climate policies, Communications Earth & Environment, 10.1038/s43247-024-01674-3 9 cites.

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Climate change mitigation public policy research

Affective divisions and climate policy polarization, Bäck et al., Environmental Politics Open Access pdf 10.1080/09644016.2026.2731596

Australian Elected Representatives Underestimate Public Support for Climate Action, Wilkinson & Klebl, Journal of Environmental Psychology Open Access pdf 10.1016/j.jenvp.2026.103217

Climate action disclosure among companies: Implications for achieving global efforts to limit average global temperature rise to below 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels, Shimwela et al., PLOS Climate Open Access pdf 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000951

Defending the status quo: The role of system justification in public opposition to ambitious climate policy and energy system change, Lloyd et al., Journal of Environmental Psychology Open Access 10.1016/j.jenvp.2026.103214

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Progress from Chicken Genetics to the Chicken Genome, Poultry Science, 10.1093/ps/85.12.2050 55 cites.

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Climate change adaptation & adaptation public policy research

Adapting the emergency management Enterprise to manage the climate emergency: a critical review, Preston et al., Climate Risk Management Open Access 10.1016/j.crm.2026.100885

Cross-sectoral perspectives on strategies to address climate adaptation and health in cyclone-prone Sofala province, Mozambique, Marrufo et al., Frontiers in Climate Open Access pdf 10.3389/fclim.2026.1912968

Governance barriers to climate change adaptation in regional catchment management, Kennedy et al., Environmental Science & Policy 10.1016/j.envsci.2026.104491

Mapping the urban heat island and climate risk in Padua (Italy): Trends in extremes and perspectives for climate justice in adaptation planning, Ceppi et al., Urban Climate Open Access 10.1016/j.uclim.2026.103143

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Elevated urban energy risks due to climate-driven biophysical feedbacks, Nature Climate Change, 10.1038/s41558-024-02108-w 37 cites.

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Climate change impacts on human health

Beyond resolution: An integrated framework for selecting climate data for urban heat-risk assessment, Shin et al., Urban Climate Open Access 10.1016/j.uclim.2026.103150

Climate Informed Dengue Prediction and Future Risk Under a Changing Monsoon Climate in Kerala, India, Yacob & Koll, Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research) Open Access 10.5281/zenodo.20096919

Heatstroke in Japan: current status, future risks, and prevention measures under a changing climate, Oka, Climate Risk Management Open Access pdf 10.1016/j.crm.2026.100887

Long-term weakening of extreme cold stress in eastern China, Li et al., Weather and Climate Extremes Open Access 10.1016/j.wace.2026.100960

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Rising cause-specific mortality risk and burden of compound heatwaves amid climate change, Nature Climate Change, 10.1038/s41558-024-02137-5 100 cites.

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Climate change & geopolitics

Mapping and quantifying engagement levels of governments in IPCC approval meetings by topic from text, Bayer et al., PLOS Climate Open Access pdf 10.1371/journal.pclm.0001057

Other

Climate urgency enables political alignment for Latin American power integration, Ramírez et al., Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-026-77772-x

Dialogue framework for climate justice: bridging social and environmental justice, Thiele, Environmental Sociology 10.1080/23251042.2026.2732173

Extreme North American heatwaves in 1941 and 2021 drove widespread but contrasting impacts, Anderson & Chartrand, Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-026-04055-0

Internal Variability Dominates the Spatial Heterogeneity of Recent Trends in Eurasian Winter Cold Extremes, Liu et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1029/2026gl124591

Kinetic study of global-scale O3 pollution under 2060s climate and emission scenarios, Hata et al., Atmospheric Environment Open Access pdf 10.1016/j.atmosenv.2026.122367

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Climatic controls of fire activity in the red pine forests of eastern North America, Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 10.1016/j.agrformet.2024.110219 7 cites.

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Informed opinion, nudges & major initiatives

A global safety net for climate-risk intelligence is urgently needed, Bashir & Adil, Nature 10.1038/d41586-026-02995-3

Adaptation as a catalyst for social change, Adams et al., PLOS Climate Open Access 10.1371/journal.pclm.0001052

Protecting tropical forests is more cost-effective for biodiversity and climate than restoration, Miranda et al., Science 10.1126/science.adx9928

Research Priorities for Robust Climate Assessments in the United States, Kenney et al., Earth s Future Open Access 10.1029/2025ef007336

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
A just world on a safe planet: a Lancet Planetary Health–Earth Commission report on Earth-system boundaries, translations, and transformations, The Lancet Planetary Health, 10.1016/s2542-5196(24)00042-1 173 cites.

Articles/Reports from Agencies and Non-Governmental Organizations Addressing Aspects of Climate Change

Making California’s Electricity Cheaper: An Affordability Agenda for the Golden State, Boyle et al., Grid Lab and Energy Innovation

More than 80% of Californians rank lowering bills as a top or important priority for state leaders, and the state’s elected officials have a duty to address these intertwined problems for their constituents. In response, the authors participated in a workshop of more than 20 California electricity experts to diagnose what is causing rising costs and develop actionable policy solutions that address the scale of the challenge. The authors were informed by but not limited by that workshop; they define a policy roadmap to stabilize and ultimately reduce electricity rates for California’s incoming governor, the California Public Utilities Commission (CPUC), the legislature, utilities, and other stakeholders, that will allow California to sustain its clean energy leadership.

Understanding the linkage between transmission deliverability and resource adequacy, Stenclik et al., GridLab and Telos Energy

The authors wanted to bridge the gap between interconnection studies and resource adequacy assessments, two processes that are deeply interrelated, but have historically been treated as separate analytical exercises. Most of the recent attention on generator interconnection has focused on interconnection costs, queue timelines, and transmission cost allocation, while the resource adequacy implications have remained largely unexamined. Despite the central role of deliverability assumptions in resource adequacy assessments, there has been limited research into whether they accurately reflect how resources perform during periods of elevated resource adequacy risk outside of narrowly defined peak-load windows. Inaccurately assumed generator deliverability can have a large affect on resource adequacy outcomes.

Assessing Electricity Resource Adequacy in Pennsylvania and PJM, Knight et al., Pennsylvania Public Utility Commission

The authors developed load projections and evaluated resource adequacy under a set of likely possible futures for PJM's grid and its' Pennsylvania service area. The authors used capacity expansion and resource adequacy scenario modeling to (a) develop projections of future resources through the long term (2040) in light of different load projections and (b) assess system reliability performance through the near term (2030) to better understand the kinds of stresses Pennsylvania’s electric system and the wider PJM grid face. Three scenarios were used. In both the Reference scenario and the High Load And Low Supply scenario, the authors found that from 2027 through 2030, the PJM planning criterion for resource adequacy (loss of load expectation or “LOLE” of 0.1) is not met by PJM. Meanwhile, in the No New Data Centers scenario, LOLE is below this 0.1 threshold.

State of Mind: Mapping Values and Climate Perceptions, Maharashtra Edition, Ek Kutumb Solutions

If technical infrastructure enables the delivery of climate solutions, relational infrastructure enables their acceptance, adoption, and endurance. It comprises the social foundations that shape whether people engage with transitions: the values they hold, the degree of agency they feel, the priorities they seek to protect, the institutions they trust, and the ways in which they make sense of change. To address this missing layer, Ek Kutumb is building the first and largest state-by-state, values-based segmentation of citizens in India. The research seeks to surface the deeply held values and perceptions of climate change, along with experiences of agency, priorities, and trust factors that shape how people respond to climate-related issues and interventions. The first state examined is Maharashtra. Four themes emerge from the Maharashtra findings including the primacy of everyday economic pressures, a deep but locally rooted relationship with nature, broad acceptance of climate change expressed in the language of lived experience rather than scientific terminology, and a trust vacuum in which no institution has yet earned the mandate to lead on climate. The authors segment the population into seven value-based groups, each defined by a distinct configuration of core values. For each segment, they examined their relationship to family and community, as well as their understanding of the environment, climate, and institutions.

State of Global Water Resources 2025, World Meteorological Organization

The authors provide a comprehensive quantitative overview of global water resources, with a focus on hydrological variability and trends. The report's information supports countries, decision makers and stakeholders in understanding the current state of water resources, identifying areas with significant anomalies and supporting effective water management strategies. The authors found that 2025 was one of driest years for river discharge in 35 years. The past seven years have seen abnormal river flows. Water storage on Earth’s land surface has decreased in past 10 years. Widespread glacier loss occurred across all regions for the fourth consecutive year. Asia and Africa are the regions most affected by water-related disasters. Water data availability has improved, but gaps remain in hard hit areas.

State-Led Planning, Development, and Procurement, Spokas et al., Clean Air Task Force

The authors identify how establishing state-led planning and procurement can help state governments in deregulated electricity markets meet their power sector decarbonization goals and lays out the components needed to put that planning in action.

Findings from a 2026 Survey of Adults Age 18 and Older, Energy Policy Institute at the University of Chicago and the AP-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research

The authors found that 53% of Americans are extremely or very concerned about the environmental effects of AI, up from 41% who said the same in 2025. Younger adults ages 18-29 have become particularly concerned, increasing from 38% last year to 60% today and moving from levels similar to other age groups to the highest level of concern. Forty-seven percent of Americans think AI will do more to hurt rather than help the environment, up from 33% who said the same in 2025. The authors also explored attitudes toward climate change, energy policy, and electric vehicles (EVs). Most Americans agree that climate change is happening and is caused by human activity, a trend that has remained stable in recent years. There is a large partisan divide in these attitudes, however, with Democrats more likely than Republicans to believe climate change is occurring (92% vs. 55%) and is caused mostly by human activity (68% vs. 34%). About 2 in 3 believe that oil and gas companies, the federal government, and large businesses and corporations have a lot of responsibility to address climate change, while just 4 in 10 say the same about developing countries and individual people.

In Hottest Summer on Record, 2 in 3 Americans Say Climate Change Is Increasing Heat-Related Illnesses, Annenberg Public Policy Center, University of Pennsylvania

Nearly two-thirds of the American public say climate change is increasing the risk of respiratory diseases and heat- and insect-related illnesses. The author's survey, which was conducted Aug. 4-17, 2026, among 1,904 empaneled U.S. adults, found that 76% report that extreme outdoor heat affected their daily activities at least sometimes in the past year and 38% say poor air quality resulting from wildfire smoke did so. Extreme heat is affecting the everyday lives of most Americans. Nearly two-thirds of Americans (65%) say that climate change is increasing the risk of heat-related illnesses, respiratory diseases, and insect-borne diseases. This is unchanged from August 2025 (65%) and July 2024 (67%) but is significantly higher than 58% in November 2023. Americans generally recognize that heat waves are on the rise. Nearly two-thirds (62%) say U.S. heat waves are becoming more frequent and intense than in the past, statistically unchanged from 61% in August 2025, 65% in July 2024, and 58% in November 2023. Of the four extreme weather events measured in the survey, more Americans report that their daily activities were impacted at least sometimes by extreme outdoor heat (76%) and poor air quality resulting from wildfire smoke (38%). As one would expect, fewer say they were impacted at least sometimes by flooding (20%) and tornadoes/hurricanes (11%), since these events are less frequent.

Energy Crossroads: Why managing fossil fuel decline is key to Australia’s green export future, Malbrain et al., WWF-Australia

The authors warn that the Australia's bid to be both a renewable energy superpower and a major fossil fuel exporter is putting its economic future at risk. This dual energy strategy is sending mixed signals to investors and trading partners just as countries across the Indo-Pacific accelerate clean energy investments. Australia could lose up to $70 billion in fossil fuel export value by 2035 as global demand shifts. Yet, findings show Australian governments still provide an estimated $20.1 billion a year in support to fossil fuels, compared with just $4.6 billion for renewable energy.

Understanding Oregon’s Data Center Industry, Wirkkala et al., Center for Nonprofit and Philanthropic Insight at ECOnorthwest and the University of Virginia

The authors establishes a common foundation for understanding Oregon’s data center industry. They examine the location, scale, and characteristics of existing and planned facilities; electricity and water implications; workforce and economic contributions; property taxes and incentive programs; land use and host-community characteristics; and Oregon’s position relative to selected peer markets. The analysis draws on facility-level data, confidential employment records, economic modeling, county property tax records, geospatial analysis, public utility and water-resource information, and other state, federal, and industry sources. The authors also identify areas where data are insufficient to understand impacts, and further research or reporting is needed. Electricity demand is one of the industry’s most significant infrastructure considerations. Water use depends heavily on facility technology and local conditions. Data centers have a distinct economic profile; relatively few operational jobs, but substantial economic activity. Land-use effects are small statewide, but can be more significant locally.

From Opportunity To Infrastructure: Scaling Rooftop Solar In Commercial Real Estate (UK), Cush and Wakefield, Real Estate:UK, Forsters, and Push Power

The authors found that the UK’s untapped commercial rooftops could become a major new source of solar energy generation with enough output to match that of 20 Hinkley Point C nuclear power stations. This, if used correctly, could massively increase UK renewable energy production, fast-track the UK’s path to net zero, improve national energy security, reduce the need for solar deployment on agricultural land, and drastically reduce energy costs for occupiers amid ongoing energy price uncertainty. The authors used data and responses from 70 real estate organizations with combined assets under management of over £500bn. The authors found that less than 10% of suitable commercial building roof space has been used for solar generation to date, providing just 3-5GW of solar capacity. While solar technology is widely championed in principle, its deployment remains significantly below its technical potential, particularly across the industrial and logistics real estate sector.

The Dirty Truth. They promised you clean energy, but there's a Dirty Truth behind your rising utility bills, Ver Beek et al., Sierra Club

The authors studied the 50 parent companies that own the most fossil fuel generation, comprised of 76 operating companies, which collectively own half of all remaining coal and gas generation in the U.S. They analyzed their plans to retire coal by 2030, not build new gas plants through 2035, and build clean energy to replace fossil generation and serve new load by 2035. The utilities studied scored 7/100, earning an F, worsening their overall score by 11 points since 2021.

Stored Potential. The impacts of utility-scale battery energy storage systems on communities and the grid, Draklellis et al., RMI

The authors examine large-scale battery energy storage system (BESS) projects across the United States, drawing on available data to assess their reliability contributions, economic impacts, community benefits, and improving safety performance. Batteries help keep the lights on during grid stress. Battery storage can lower electricity costs during high-demand periods. BESS projects can provide meaningful local economic benefits. About New Research

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Does wind power require backup from fossil fuels?

Most power grids still combine fossil fuels with renewables, but some already run entirely on renewable energy and offer models others could follow.

The majority of 100% renewable grids rely primarily on hydropower, though certain nations have significantly incorporated wind in their portfolios. Costa Rica and Uruguay have achieved 99-100% renewable power with around 17% and 35% coming from wind, respectively.

Several U.S. municipalities meet electricity demands using diverse portfolios of renewables, including wind. Burlington, Vermont’s 2024 supply was 99.9% renewable, mainly via hydropower, biomass, and wind; Seattle, Washington was 95% renewables powered in 2024. In Kansas and South Dakota, wind alone comprises 60% of generation.

Energy storage is also rapidly expanding as a solution to intermittency, with the U.S. ranking second globally and achieving record growth in 2025. Such combinations of renewable resources, storage, and transmission continue to enable more reliable, renewable grids.

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Sources

Climate Council 11 countries leading the charge on renewable energy

Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Denmark Denmark #1 in share of renewables in net electricity generation for 2024 in the EU

IEA Lithuania

City of Burlington Electric Department Our Energy Portfolio

City of Seattle Power Supply and Delivery

Analysis of EIA data Share of electricity gen by wind, by state, 2025

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U.S. Grid Energy Storage Factsheet University of Michigan

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NREL NREL Report Redefines Wind as a Grid Stabilizer, Not a Liability 

Columbia Law School Sabin Center for Climate Change Law Rebutting 33 False Claims About Solar, Wind, and Electric Vehicles

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This is a re-post from World Weather Attribution

A catastrophic rock-ice avalanche that transitioned into a debris flood in the Himalayas along the Nepal–China border on 26 August 2026 has caused widespread destruction across Nepal and neighbouring regions. In Nepal, at the time of writing (14 September 2026) the disaster has resulted in over 1,300 confirmed deaths, with only a small fraction of victims identified and returned to their families. Over 5,000 people remain missing, around 13,700 people  have been rescued and more than 8,600 people have received medical treatment (NDRRMA, 2026e). About 3,400 people are currently sheltering in holding centres (NDRRMA, 2026a) and an estimated 84,270 people across 17 local levels in the six districts of Rasuwa, Nuwakot, Dhading, Gorkha, Chitwan and Tanahu are affected, with the government declaring 15 municipalities as disaster crisis-hit areas for three months (UNDP, 2026a; MOHA, 2026).

While initial reports suggested that the event may have been caused by an earthquake, later evidence indicates that the recorded seismic activity was actually linked to the rapid collapse of  roughly 2 square kilometers of  rock wall and glacier ice (US Geological Society Earthquake Hazards Program, August 26, 2026; Center for Hydrology and Water Resources Research, 2026). The collapsing material fell approximately 1,400 m, from around 5,150 m above sea level to the valley floor at about 3,750 m. This released a huge amount of energy and produced seismic waves that were initially detected as an earthquake-like signal.

The rock-ice avalanche then triggered a series of processes. As the ice, rock and debris moved rapidly down the mountain, friction and mechanical energy probably caused some of the glacier ice to melt, producing large amounts of meltwater (Le Page, 26 August 2026 [NewScientist]). When the avalanche reached the valley floor, it also hit buried ice, which probably melted and added more water to the debris flood.

Figure 1: Climate-sensitive processes potentially contributing to failure. Conceptual representation of the main mechanisms through which climate variability and climate change may have influenced the stability of the Rasuwa rock wall.  

The resulting debris flood was therefore likely caused by several sources of water, including melting glacier ice, water stored beneath the glacier and in permafrost, ice and water carried within the debris (see fig. 1), and river water pushed ahead of the flow. A wall of water, ice, rock and sediment reached the Rasuwagadhi border, 22 km downstream, within seven minutes, moving at an average speed of 188 km per hour, and wiped out the border facilities, the town of Timure and the Syabrubesi market town within the next quarter of an hour, catching pilgrims, border staff and hydropower workers (CHWRR, 2026; Lord, 2026). Within a further half hour it was in the Trishuli valley at Betrawati, and still moving boulders and pulling multi-storey buildings into the river in Betrawati and Trishuli Bazaar far downstream (CHWRR, 2026; Lord, 2026). The flood travelled 200 km to Devghat in under seven hours, where river flow more than doubled to about 5,850 cubic metres per second, and an estimated 20 million cubic meters of excess water passed in under four hours before the flood continued into India (CHWRR, 2026; Lord, 2026). The water deposited 30.5 million cubic meters of sediment and debris along the corridor, burying agricultural fields, settlements and hydropower plants (NDRRMA, 2026d).

This mixture of water, ice, rock and sediment created a highly destructive debris flood that swept away families, homes, settlements, roads, bridges and other infrastructure along the corridor, leaving survivors stranded and cut off, many having also lost family members and everything they owned more than 35 km downstream while the water travelled much further, at Glachi, 88 km downstream the water level of the river Trishuli rose by 8.5m (Center for Land Surface Hazards, 2026). The extent of the humanitarian catastrophe is still being assessed. 

Researchers from Nepal, Pakistan, the UK, Ireland, Sweden, Denmark, Norway, the US, New Zealand and the Netherlands, including experts in glaciology, mountain hydrology, climate science, humanitarian aid, seismology and social science, have come together to examine the range of factors that may have contributed to this event. While the underlying geological structure controlled where and how the slope failed, longer-term warming and changing precipitation phase from snow to rain may have reduced its stability by weakening ice-filled fractures and rock–ice contacts and increasing water pressure. Climate change is thus best understood as a destabilising factor acting on a pre-existing geological predisposition, rather than the fundamental cause of the failure. Therefore, rather than conducting a conventional attribution study which is typically focused on a single, well-defined weather event, we are bringing together the available scientific knowledge on known and potential drivers, while also investigating how these drivers have changed in a warming climate.

Main Findings 

• Nepal has established early warning systems and adaptation measures that can help reduce impacts from more conventional and forecastable riverine floods, and have demonstrably helped save lives, including among communities downstream. However, the event was fundamentally different in its magnitude, speed and complexity. It was beyond the design and predictive limits of existing risk reduction measures, and no existing early warning system could have provided sufficient lead time or prevented the scale of impacts observed in the worst-affected areas, highlighting the limits of adaptation. In a rapidly warming Himalaya, increasingly extreme and complex hazards are exceeding adaptation capacity, resulting in loss and damage. This is occurring against a baseline of a high frequency of large earthquakes, which both destabilises slopes and hampers recovery from successive disasters.

• The immediate impacts of this cascading hazard were almost entirely dependent on exposure to hazard, whereas longer-term impacts (e.g. related to recovery, long-term health effects) are likely to vary based on socioeconomic vulnerability characteristics of the populations affected. In a high mountain context where habitable land is constrained, population is increasing, and economic activity is dependent on rivers, it would be very socially, economically and politically difficult to eliminate or even substantially reduce exposure in riverine valleys, representing a soft limit to adaptation.  

• The 26 August 2026 Rasuwa disaster was triggered by a large rock wall collapse from the Langtang Lirung mountain at 5,150 m asl., which also caused part of the overlying glacier to collapse. The resulting rock–ice avalanche rapidly transformed into a debris flood and then a water-dominated flash flood that traveled downstream at average speeds of 188 km/hr, causing extensive erosion and sediment deposition. The failure involved an exceptionally large volume of rock and ice that on impact with the ground released energy equivalent to a M5.5 earthquake. There are several possible contributing causes, as outlined in the following points.

• In 2015 an earthquake of magnitude 7.8 triggered a catastrophic rock–ice avalanche at Langtang Lirung and caused widespread damage across the region. Subsequent monitoring shows persistently elevated and, at high elevations, increased landslide activity, suggesting that earthquake shaking may have weakened the underlying rock mass over the long term. Although its specific contribution to the 2026 failure cannot yet be confirmed, the earthquake may have preconditioned the slope for failure, alongside geological and climatic factors.

• Warming and permafrost degradation likely weakened the source rock wall by increasing bedrock temperatures and thawing ice within fractures. Loss of ice bonding reduces fracture strength, while meltwater can increase water pressure and further destabilise pre-existing geological weaknesses. Thus, permafrost degradation may have acted as an additional climate-related factor preconditioning the slope for failure.

• Glaciers in the region have been losing mass for decades at a rate equivalent to more than half a metre of thinning per year. Since 2010 the rate of recession of the Langtang-Lirung glacier extent has accelerated, increasing from 0.5% per annum over the previous two centuries to 1-2.3% per annum in the past 16 years. Glacier thinning and retreat can reduce buttressing and alter stresses within adjacent rock walls, potentially weakening existing fractures and increasing slope instability. Combined with increased meltwater, these processes may have interacted to amplify the compound event. 

• Precipitation can provide an additional short-timescale forcing. As temperatures rise, the rain–snow transition moves upward, increasing the fraction of rain falling as snow at higher elevations. Rain produces an immediate liquid-water input to the slope, whereas snowfall temporarily stores water at the surface. Intense or prolonged rainfall can therefore rapidly increase water supply to fractures and potentially increase fracture-water pressure. At the rock-ice-avalanche location,  stations recorded exceptionally high precipitation during October 2025, which combined with subsequent warmth may have been a source for meltwater during the following spring and monsoon seasons. There is also a tendency of the greater fraction of precipitation falling as rain than snow in recent years. This means there can be an increase in the amount of water stored in the land under the avalanche site, even in the absence of anomalously high total precipitation. 

• Observations show unusually warm conditions before the failure, supporting enhanced snow and ice melt and more precipitation falling as rain rather than snow. The slope failure on August 26th occurred against the backdrop of a warm 12 month period from September 2025-August 2026, with the warmest two months of the year (July and August) directly preceding the event also substantially warmer than the climatological average. These conditions were anomalous at the location of the slope failure itself and across the wider Himalayan region.

• We also analysed the height of the 0°C isotherm, finding that it has shifted to higher elevations consistent with global warming, with particularly strong trends observed during the Monsoon and Postmonsoon seasons. This progressive upward retreat of the freezing threshold is on the order of 100m/decade in recent decades in the Monsoon and Postmonsoon season. This is highly relevant as it can contribute to the degradation of high-elevation permafrost, glacial thinning and retreat, the snowfall-rainfall transition, and associated slope instability.

• When analysing how these conditions were different in a 1.4°C cooler preindustrial climate, using the standard WWA attribution framework that compares possible weather in today’s climate with possible weather in a 1.4°C cooler preindustrial climate using climate models and statistical models based on weather observations. We find in all datasets a significant increase in the likelihood and intensity of the very warm July-August temperatures at the gridcell nearest to the slope failure as well as in the wider region with an increase in temperature attributable to human-caused climate change during July and August of about 1.5°C, comparable to the level of global warming. Annually, the attributable increase is larger than global warming, at about 2°C. In individual winter months, the observed increase is as high as 3°C.

• We have not assessed whether this specific rock-ice avalanche would have occurred in the absence of human-induced climate change. Such a direct attribution requires additional evidence linking atmospheric conditions to subsurface temperatures, fracture-water pressures and the mechanical evolution of the slope. However, rapidly rising temperatures at a rate beyond the global mean as a result of fossil fuel emissions increase the likelihood and severity of such hazards in the Himalayas.

• Significant progress in adaptation is needed, particularly through strengthened high Himalaya earth observation, hazard monitoring, risk communication  and transboundary data and knowledge sharing. But events of this magnitude ultimately exceed the limits of adaptation. Addressing unfolding and imminent loss and damage, through recovery and reconstruction support in impacted communities, has now become an unavoidable part of climate response. 

• Minimising future risk requires a rapid transition away from fossil fuel use and delivering on climate finance commitments for adaptation. This is particularly important in the Himalaya and other high mountains, where glacier decline and permafrost degradation are expected to continue even without further warming, meaning that some of the impacts of past warming have yet to fully emerge.

A listing of 28 news and opinion articles we found interesting and shared on social media during the past week: Sun, September 13, 2026 thru Sat, September 19, 2026. Stories we promoted this week, by category:

Climate Change Impacts (8 articles)

• A Super El Niño Is Building. Florida`s Most Vulnerable Homes Aren`t Ready. A strong El Niño is raising the odds of an active winter storm season—and the Floridians most likely to die in a tornado live in aging manufactured homes the state can’t even count. Inside Climate News, Kate Waxman, Sep 13, 2026.
• The Atmosphere Just Set a Water Vapor Record More water vapor means more rocket fuel for extreme rain — so this record is not good news The Climate Brink, Andrew Dessler, Sep 14, 2026.
• Climate crisis likely behind devastating Nepal-Tibet floods that killed more than 1,300, first study finds Scientists say global heating was a destabilising factor in collapse of 200,000 sq metre glacier in August. The Guardian, Damien Gayle, Sep 16, 2026.
• The open houses at the edge of disaster This story is part of Betting the House, a pop-up climate newsroom bringing together independent journalists to cover climate and housing. HEATED, Emily Atkin, Sep 17, 2026.
• Climate change is making it easier for invasive species to succeed The Conversation, Nicola S. Smith & William W. L. Cheung , Sep 17, 2026.
• MIT researchers are mapping extreme weather risks - and building tools to act on them The Climate Grand Challenges “New World of Weather” project shows how modeling, planning tools, and infrastructure analysis are translating research into real-world resilience. MIT News, David Chandler, Sep 18, 2026.
• What Happens When Earth Passes 1.5 Degrees of Warming? Climate scientist Michael Mann digs into the story behind the latest numbers. Inside Climate News, Steve Curwood, Sep 19, 2026.
• Burning forests, emptying rivers, €180bn in damage: Europe`s politicians face reckoning after `summer of truth` Amid record-shattering heatwaves and popular demand for climate action, why are politicians often timid or in denial? The Guardian, Fiona Harvey, Sep 19, 2026.

Climate Policy and Politics (7 articles)

• This climate problem isn`t on the UN agenda - data centers The slow moving climate talks are struggling to address one of the world’s biggest drivers of rising energy demand. Politico, Sara Schonhardt, Sep 11, 2026.
• EPA Will Remove Carbon Dioxide Limits on Power Plants The U.S. power sector—which accounts for roughly a quarter of the country’s greenhouse gas emissions—will no longer need to abide by Biden-era federal climate pollution regulations. Eos, Grace van Deelen, Sep 14, 2026.
• Trump Administration Will Roll Back Climate Rules According to published reports, the Trump Administration will finalize rules to rollback carbon pollution standards for power plants, as soon as today. Common Dreams, Newswire Editor, Sep 14, 2026.
• Trump Doubles Down on Climate Denial With Plan to Repeal Power Plant Rules The EPA revoked limits on greenhouse gas emissions from power plants, rejecting decades of settled science to argue that they do not contribute to dangerous air pollution. Inside Climate News, Liza Gross, Sep 15, 2026.
• How does unthinkable policy become inevitable? The `Overton window` is one possible answer The Overton window seems convenient for explaining big shifts in public policy. But just how good is it? The Conversation, Joshua Black, Lecturer in Australian Political Studies, University of Canberra, Sep 15, 2026.
• What the science really says about the health and climate risks of carbon pollution The repeal of this rule is the latest in the Trump Administration’s attempts to roll back federal climate regulation. TIME, Simmone Shah, Sep 15, 2026.
• Why Germany is building an ark for U.S. climate data As researchers around the world begin work on the next U.N. climate assessment, fears are growing that the Trump administration could meddle with critical U.S. climate data. In response, scientists are preparing to transfer vast troves of that data to repositories in Germany. YaleEnvironment360, Christian Schwägerl, Sep 17, 2026.

Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation (4 articles)

• Why is Venus hotter than Mercury, when Mercury is closer to the sun? Despite being farther from the sun, Venus is the hottest planet in the solar system, and the reason has little to do with proximity to a star. Live Science, Olivia Maule, Sep 12, 2026.
• Africa`s climate services need local detail and knowledge, say people who use the information The Conversation, Petra HoldenCherié Janine Forbes and Gerald Ngoma, Sep 13, 2026.
• Australia must double down to meet our climate targets. Our new study shows how A new report from Climate Analytics and the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research asks and attempts to answer a seemingly simple question: what can Australia do to limit GHG emissions overshoot? The Conversation, Bill Hare, Murdoch University, Sep 13, 2026.
• Scrap the term `net zero` - it`s too toxic, net zero committee urges Calling for a major rebranding of the effort to tackle climate change, the cross-party committee said the term had become a ‘lightning rod for opposition to climate action’ The Independent News, Millie Cooke, Sep 17, 2026.

Climate Science and Research (3 articles)

• Wildfires, permafrost melt in Canada causing even more climate change, new study shows New research says current climate models don’t account for warming-induced emissions CBC, Inyat Singh, Sep 11, 2026.
• Skeptical Science New Research for Week #38 2026 Skeptical Science's weekly survey of peer-reviewed climate research plus climate-related reports from think tanks and governments. Skeptical Science, Doug Bostrom & Marc Kodack, Sep 17, 2026.
• How narwhal 'scientists' track Arctic warming Phys.org, Issam AHMED, Sep 19, 2026.

Climate Education and Communication (2 articles)

• In Florida, textbook publishers are minimizing or removing climate change coverage The words "climate change" are slowly being removed from textbooks in Florida and from the state's education standards. NPR, Jessica Meszaros, Sep 15, 2026.
• 12 climate books for back-to-school season These titles showcase how disciplines across the curriculum can inform our response to climate change. Yale Climate Connections, Michael Svoboda, Sep 15, 2026.

Miscellaneous (2 articles)

• 2026 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #37 A listing of 28 news and opinion articles we found interesting and shared on social media during the past week: Sun, September 6, 2026 thru Sat, September 12, 2026. Skeptical Science, Bärbel Winkler & Doug Bostrom, Sep 13, 2026.
• Kim Stanley Robinson won`t read aloud his climate disaster scene from `The Ministry for the Future` Kim Stanley Robinson, author of one of the most famous novels on climate change, says he has done more than 600 speaking events since “The Ministry for the Future” was published in 2020 — but he won’t read the first chapter out loud. AP News, Peter Prengaman, Sep 17, 2026.

Public Misunderstandings about Climate Science (1 article)

• Many Trump `enemies` are being spoon-fed to him by one conservative think tank Climate denial successfully fed to the White House as policy framework. The Independent News, Andrew Feinberg, Sep 18, 2026.

Climate Law and Justice (1 article)

• Congressional Republicans Aim to Shield Fossil Fuel Companies From Climate Lawsuits The House Judiciary Committee will consider the Stop Climate Shakedowns Act as the Trump administration moves to roll back federal limits on greenhouse gas emissions. Inside Climate News, Georgina Gustin, Sep 15, 2026.

If you happen upon high quality climate-science and/or climate-myth busting articles from reliable sources while surfing the web, please feel free to submit them via this Google form so that we may share them widely. Thanks!

Open access notables

Projected amplification of global warming by warming-induced greenhouse gas emissions, Abernethy et al., Environmental Research Letters

Warming-induced emissions (WIE) of greenhouse gases from natural sources are a large amplifying feedback that most climate models do not yet represent. This absence risks systematic underestimation of projected future warming and overestimation of remaining carbon budgets. To assess the potential magnitude of these feedbacks, we derived relationships between global temperature and WIE rates from process-based model estimates across three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways, SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP4-6.0. The warming-induced methane emission rate from permafrost, wetlands, freshwaters, and wildfire combined increases with temperature at an estimated 97 ± 6 Tg CH4 yr−1 °C−1 across all three scenarios, while the warming-induced carbon dioxide emission rate from permafrost and wildfire combined increases at 7 ± 1 Pg CO2 yr−1 °C−1 in SSP2-4.5 and SSP4-6.0. Using the MAGICC climate model, we projected that WIE could add 0.2 °C–0.4 °C of warming by 2100 across scenarios, split roughly equally between carbon dioxide and methane, amplifying post-2020 anthropogenic warming by 20%–30%. Combined emission sensitivity and climate response 1σ uncertainties are ±0.2 °C on the added warming and ±10%–30% on the warming amplification.

Interpreting Ensembles of Climate Projections for Impact Studies, Chandler & Brierley, Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews Climate Change

To study the potential impacts of future changes in the earth's climate, projections of these changes are required. These are usually produced using complex computer models, and are subject to many uncertainties which are often sampled using collections (“ensembles”) of model simulations. However, the sampling in any individual ensemble is incomplete and often unrepresentative. This creates challenges for users of the projections, especially when it is important to understand the range of potential impacts that can reasonably be expected. Other challenges include the presence of systematic discrepancies between the model outputs and observations of the real climate system; and the fact that it is often infeasible to work with all members of an ensemble so that an appropriate subset must be chosen. Various approaches have been suggested for addressing each of these issues: a critical review is provided here, to allow an informed choice depending on the requirements of a given application.

The emergence of climate migration research as an academic field, Kohutova et al., Frontiers in Climat

This study examines how research on climate migration has developed from a dispersed topic of academic interest into a distinct academic field. Although the links between environment and human mobility have been studied for over a century, less attention has been paid to how knowledge has been structured and institutionalized around this topic. To address this gap, the article examines how climate migration scholarship has grown, organized its scholarly community, and gained recognition from external actors. Drawing on theories of field formation, we analyse four dimensions of academic fields: differentiation from other research areas, epistemic and social coherence among scholars, their social infrastructure and legitimacy-building. The study uses a mixed-methods approach combining bibliometric analysis, document and policy review, and expert interviews. The findings show that the formation of climate migration as a research field was a cumulative process. Policy attention brought resources for more research, while a shared understanding that climate migration is driven by multiple interacting factors, not climate alone, gave scholars common ground to organize around. Expanding citations and co-authorships networks then gave the field its structure over time. However, the field formation remains uneven. The networks are geographically uneven, research is being published across hundreds of journals, and theoretical frameworks are underdeveloped. Overall, the article shows how new research topics consolidate as academic fields and argues that the label of ‘research field' is not merely descriptive because it impacts visibility, resources, and epistemic authority.

Future warming enhances rates of population increase of arthropod crop pests globally, Molina et al., Ecography

We compiled a dataset on the thermal biology of arthropod crop pests and fitted TPCs to examine the projected shifts in performance under historic and future climates relative to their thermal niches, which were examined through modelling the latitudinal variation of their population-level thermal limits. Our findings highlight that most arthropod crop pests are projected to increase their thermal potential for population growth under warming by 2050, with temperate populations retaining room to grow but tropical populations increasingly exposed to heat stress. These findings can be explained by the asymmetric variation of thermal niche limits for these intrinsic rates of population increase, since we found that lower thermal limits declined with latitude, while upper thermal limits remained constant.

From this week's government/NGO section:

Communicating about Climate and Clean Energy in an Age of Affordability, Andrea Everett, Heatmap and Embold Research

Each phase of research built on the previous one, starting with a large national survey to uncover the core values, priorities, and beliefs of three broad segments of the electorate with different views of climate change. These groups were labelled as Skeptics, Persuadables, and Persuadeds. For climate and clean energy communicators, the electorate is best understood as three distinct audiences. Persuadeds already believe in the 11 urgency of climate action and clean energy. What they lack is the conviction that their own actions matter, so the core tasks are to give them concrete, achievable things to do and to help them see that their efforts matter. Persuadables are open but unconvinced, and on the central issue of clean energy affordability they demand proof they can see close to home, rather than broad statistics or slogans. Skeptics, meanwhile, may be reachable through appeals to their values of personal freedom and energy independence, supplemented by evidence on cost and reliability, but with so few trusted messengers to make the case, clean energy remains a tough sell.

What are the top social media platforms used by each of Global Warming’s Six Americas?, Ettinger et al., Yale University and George Mason University

In Fall 2025, as part of a biannual Climate Change in the American Mind survey, the authors asked a nationally representative sample of Americans (n = 1,146) how often they visit 14 different social media platforms. They were also asked how often they hear about global warming on social media. Across Global Warming’s Six Americas, the most commonly visited social media platforms are YouTube, Facebook, and Instagram. The Alarmed hear about global warming on social media more often than other segments of the Six Americas. 94 articles in 53 journals by 625 contributing authors

Physical science of climate change, effects

Contrasting SST modes explain decadal intensification of Pacific Walker Circulation, Li et al., Atmospheric Research 10.1016/j.atmosres.2026.109338

Projected amplification of global warming by warming-induced greenhouse gas emissions, Abernethy et al., Environmental Research Letters Open Access 10.1088/1748-9326/ae9e24

Substantial contribution of land-atmosphere interactions to the intensification of compound drought and heatwave events under rising CO2, Xing et al., Global and Planetary Change 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2026.105722

Warming of the subpolar North Pacific accelerated by sea ice retreat and wind changes, Ge et al., npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41612-026-01541-2

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Transient overturning changes cause an upper-ocean nutrient decline in a warming climate, Nature Communications, 10.1038/s41467-024-52200-0 13 cites.

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Observations of climate change, effects

Extreme Dry and Humid Heat Seasons Are Changing Asymmetrically, Ivanovich et al., AGU Advances Open Access pdf 10.1029/2026av002516

Global drought shows no detectable recent acceleration under climate warming, Xu et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-026-03954-6

In situ observations reveal continental-scale warming, oxygen decline, and eutrophication in U.S. estuaries, Reinl et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-026-03934-w

Rapid increase of climate extremes reveals new areas of concern in Amazonia, Barlow et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-026-03975-1

State of Climate in Latin America and the Caribbean in 2025: A Review, Marengo et al., International Journal of Climatology 10.1002/joc.70581

Warming accelerates drought–flood oscillations and stratifies socioeconomic exposure, Qi et al., PNAS Nexus Open Access pdf 10.1093/pnasnexus/pgag283

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Cyclone Gabrielle as a Design Storm for Northeastern Aotearoa New Zealand Under Anthropogenic Warming, Earth s Future, 10.1029/2024ef004772 22 cites.

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Instrumentation & observational methods of climate change, effects

A global hourly ISIMIP3 climate forcing dataset for impact modeling, Bechtold et al., Earth system science data Open Access pdf 10.5194/essd-18-6637-2026

Interpreting Ensembles of Climate Projections for Impact Studies, Chandler & Brierley, Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews Climate Change Open Access pdf 10.1002/wcc.70088

Introduction to the Concept of Regional Frameworks for Climate Services (RFCS), Golding et al., Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society Open Access pdf 10.1175/bams-d-25-0207.1

Regularized Fingerprinting with Linearly Optimal Weight Matrix in Detection and Attribution of Climate Change, Li & Li, Journal of Climate pdf 10.1175/jcli-d-25-0740.1

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
What is a heat wave: A survey and literature synthesis of heat wave definitions across the United States, PLOS Climate, 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000468 18 cites.

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Modeling, simulation & projection of climate change, effects

Central Asian Future Dynamics of Coldwave and Cold Spell Under Changing Climate, Ledari et al., International Journal of Climatology 10.1002/joc.70585

Evaluating Changes in Convective Environments Over Subtropical South America Under Forced and Natural Climate Variability, Chakraborty et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2026gl125330

Global shifts in mountain wave turbulence within high resolution climate models, Smith et al., Weather and Climate Dynamics Open Access 10.5194/wcd-7-1733-2026

High-resolution projections of summer compound humid-heat extremes and GDP exposure in Eastern China, Yang et al., Atmospheric Research 10.1016/j.atmosres.2026.109341

Impacts of Different Anthropogenic Forcings on Tropical Cyclone Frequency in Large Ensemble Climate Model Simulations, Henry et al., Journal of Climate 10.1175/jcli-d-25-0442.1

Projected Changes in Wind Hazards From Extreme Extratropical Cyclones in the Northeastern U.S., Valle et al., Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres 10.1029/2026jd046823

Projecting Compound Wind-Rainfall Hazards From Tropical Cyclones in China Under Climate Change, Xu et al., Earth s Future Open Access pdf 10.1029/2026ef008431

Projecting Spatial Synchrony and Socioeconomic Risk of Heatwaves and Extreme Precipitation in the future, Li et al., Weather and Climate Extremes Open Access 10.1016/j.wace.2026.100958

The Future of Atmospheric Heatwaves in Chile Projected by a Regional Climate Model, Petit-Laurent et al., International Journal of Climatology 10.1002/joc.70567

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Strong regional trends in extreme weather over the next two decades under high- and low-emissions pathways, Nature Geoscience, 10.1038/s41561-024-01511-4 53 cites.

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Advancement of climate & climate effects modeling, simulation & projection

A global hourly ISIMIP3 climate forcing dataset for impact modeling, Bechtold et al., Earth system science data Open Access pdf 10.5194/essd-18-6637-2026

Current model capabilities and future predictive pathways of wildfires under a changing climate, Whaley et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-026-04013-w

Deciphering the Link Between Modeling Errors and the North Atlantic Surface Warming Pattern Projected by CMIP5 and CMIP6 Models, Douville et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1029/2026gl122158

Improving soil temperature simulation accuracy in Arctic permafrost regions by incorporation surface organic layer in CLM5.0, Liu et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology Open Access 10.1016/j.agrformet.2026.111476

Interpreting Ensembles of Climate Projections for Impact Studies, Chandler & Brierley, Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews Climate Change Open Access pdf 10.1002/wcc.70088

Km-scale regional coupled system in the Northwest European shelf for weather and climate applications: RCS-UKC4, Berthou et al., Geoscientific model development Open Access 10.5194/gmd-19-8535-2026

The added value of Med-CORDEX coupled high-resolution regional climate models in representing sea surface temperature and marine heatwaves in the Mediterranean Sea, Rovere et al., Ocean science Open Access pdf 10.5194/os-22-2725-2026

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Artificial intelligence for climate prediction of extremes: State of the art, challenges, and future perspectives, Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews Climate Change, 10.1002/wcc.914 115 cites.

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Cryosphere & climate change

Illusory early-warning signals of Greenland Ice Sheet destabilization, Robel et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Open Access 10.1073/pnas.2623190123

On thin glacial ice: New Austrian Glacier Inventory shows accelerating glacier shrinkage and 31 % area loss within two decades, Hartl et al., cryosphere Open Access 10.5194/tc-20-5157-2026

Projecting the evolution of the Northern Patagonian Icefield until the year 2200, Schaefer et al., cryosphere Open Access pdf 10.5194/tc-20-5115-2026

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Evolution of the Antarctic Ice Sheet Over the Next Three Centuries From an ISMIP6 Model Ensemble, Earth s Future, 10.1029/2024ef004561 73 cites.

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Paleoclimate & paleogeochemistry

Recognition of two potential warming events in the Paleocene terrestrial record of North America and associated mammalian responses, Secord et al., PNAS Nexus Open Access pdf 10.1093/pnasnexus/pgag289

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Opposing Changes in Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall Variability Produced by Orbital and Anthropogenic Forcing, Geophysical Research Letters, 10.1029/2024gl109897 8 cites.

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Biology & climate change, related geochemistry

Biome classification across global vegetation models reveals consistent biome shifts under future climate change, Scheiter et al., Biogeosciences Open Access pdf 10.5194/bg-23-6409-2026

Broad-scale shift in dominance of arbuscular mycorrhizal trees along the Japanese archipelago associated with tree diseases and climate warming, Schaefer et al., Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-026-77711-w

Distribution and Habitat Suitability of Artemisia annua in China Under Climate Change Scenarios, Zhang et al., Ecology and Evolution Open Access 10.1002/ece3.74236

Evolution of flowering phenology over 44 years of climate change, Deurs et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Open Access 10.1073/pnas.2613665123

Experimental evidence of a biological soil crust degradation climate warming amplification feedback, Smith et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-026-03874-5

Long-Term Warming Reduces Bacterial Diversity and Functional Potential in Temperate Forest Soil, Liu et al., Global Change Biology Open Access pdf 10.1111/gcb.71104

Seasonally asymmetric warming reshapes grassland stability across timescales, Lu et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Open Access 10.1073/pnas.2608466123

The projected risk of plant invasions on the peri-Antarctic islands under climate change, Vorstenbosch et al., Ecography Open Access pdf 10.1002/ecog.08195

When warming stops lengthening the growing season: Insights from two decades of forest phenology in Central Europe, Nasiri et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 10.1016/j.agrformet.2026.111457

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Global change and premature hatching of aquatic embryos, Global Change Biology, 10.1111/gcb.17488 22 cites.

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GHG sources & sinks, flux, related geochemistry

Assessment of Spatial Downscaling Used in Global Greenhouse Gas Emission Estimates, Sun et al., Earth s Future Open Access 10.1029/2026ef008225

Forest Floor Protection: The Critical Defense Against Post-Harvest Soil Carbon Loss, Wallace et al., Journal of Geophysical Research Biogeosciences Open Access pdf 10.1029/2026jg009694

From abandoned fishponds to mature mangroves: the integrated CO2 balance of two contrasting coastal wetland landscapes, Wang et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology Open Access 10.1016/j.agrformet.2026.111469

High-Resolution Dynamical Downscaling Refines the Time of Emergence of Sea Level Rise in the Northwestern Pacific, Kang et al., Earth s Future Open Access pdf 10.1029/2026ef008543

Imaging deep carbon stocks with complex electrical conductivity, Orozco et al., Biogeosciences Open Access pdf 10.5194/bg-23-6287-2026

Inefficient consumption of natural gas drives methane emissions from a megacity, Zhao et al., Atmospheric chemistry and physics Open Access pdf 10.5194/acp-26-12911-2026

Methane emissions from municipal solid waste landfills in Tehran: Field measurements and modeling of a NASA-identified global super-emitter, Hassanabadi et al., Atmospheric Environment 10.1016/j.atmosenv.2026.122355

Projected amplification of global warming by warming-induced greenhouse gas emissions, Abernethy et al., Environmental Research Letters Open Access 10.1088/1748-9326/ae9e24

Spatial-Temporal Distribution Dynamics of Carbon Storage of Dominant Species in a Subtropical Evergreen Broad-Leaved Forest and Its Influencing Factors, Duan et al., Journal of Geophysical Research Biogeosciences Open Access pdf 10.1029/2025jg008947

White Carbon: Bringing Managed Salterns Into Coastal Carbon Accounting, He, Journal of Geophysical Research Biogeosciences Open Access pdf 10.1029/2026jg010199

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Global riverine land-to-ocean carbon export constrained by observations and multi-model assessment, Nature Geoscience, 10.1038/s41561-024-01524-z 96 cites.

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CO2 capture, sequestration science & engineering

CCS deployment policy choices under regional heterogeneity: Economy-wide impacts and spillovers in China, Xiao et al., Energy Policy Open Access pdf 10.1016/j.enpol.2026.115616

Deterministic Cost Estimation Approaches for Carbon Capture, Utilization, and Storage: A Review, Mohajeri & Azadbakht, Greenhouse Gases Science and Technology Open Access pdf 10.1002/ghg.70043

Marine carbon removal at a crossroads, Macreadie et al., Nature Climate Change 10.1038/s41558-026-02740-8

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Enhancing electrochemical carbon dioxide capture with supercapacitors, Nature Communications, 10.1038/s41467-024-52219-3 61 cites.

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Decarbonization

A 250-kilowatt system for co-production of hydrogen and fresh water from seawater, Jiang et al., Nature Energy 10.1038/s41560-026-02130-6

Accelerating renewable energy transitions in Sub-Saharan Africa: Lessons from Latin America, Moyo & Oree, Energy Sustainable Development/Energy for sustainable development Open Access 10.1016/j.esd.2026.102137

Critical gaps remain in carbon accounting at mine sites, Mervine et al., Carbon Management Open Access pdf 10.1080/17583004.2026.2730003

Photovoltaic deployment strategies for net-zero commercial buildings in India: A climate-zoned benchmarking approach, Azeem & Thomas, Energy Sustainable Development/Energy for sustainable development Open Access 10.1016/j.esd.2026.102135

Physical and Biogeochemical Ocean Response to Potential Offshore Wind Development Along the U.S. West Coast, Jacox et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1029/2026gl123676

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Permeability partitioning through the brittle-to-ductile transition and its implications for supercritical geothermal reservoirs, Nature Communications, 10.1038/s41467-024-52092-0 29 cites.

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Geoengineering climate

Impact of stratospheric aerosol injection on rangeland productivity and animal production in Africa, Ho et al., Frontiers in Environmental Science Open Access pdf 10.3389/fenvs.2026.1869700

Land Radiative Management Increases Heat Stress in Some Humid Regions, Cheng & McColl, Geophysical Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1029/2026gl125630

Pathway-dependent responses of temperature extremes under solar radiation modification over Northern Africa, Sian et al., Frontiers in Earth Science Open Access 10.3389/feart.2026.1884589

Aerosols

Impacts of Anthropogenic Aerosol-Forced North Atlantic SST Variability on the Simulated Historical Global Warming, Rashid, Geophysical Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1029/2026gl124086

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Surface albedo regulates aerosol direct climate effect, Nature Communications, 10.1038/s41467-024-52255-z 28 cites.

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Climate change communications & cognition

Patient knowledge and views on the health impacts of climate change in primary care: a cross-sectional survey study, Stewart et al., Frontiers in Climate Open Access pdf 10.3389/fclim.2026.1930073

Shifting configurations of nationalism, populism, and conservatism: far-right environmental discourse on agriculture, climate, and energy, Lambrechts & Cleen, Environmental Politics 10.1080/09644016.2026.2728447

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Tackling the academic air travel dependency. An analysis of the (in)consistency between academics’ travel behaviour and their attitudes, Global Environmental Change, 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2024.102908 27 cites.

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Agronomy, animal husbundry, food production & climate change

Evaluating climate-driven agricultural suitability models for adaptation planning: stakeholder insights from British Columbia, Vakhshoori et al., Frontiers in Climate Open Access pdf 10.3389/fclim.2026.1928659

Exploring Behavioral and Social Dynamics in Crop Insurance Adoption amid Climate Change: Evidence from Paddy Farmers in Tamil Nadu, India, Thiyaharajan et al., Weather Climate and Society 10.1175/wcas-d-25-0063.1

Future warming enhances rates of population increase of arthropod crop pests globally, Molina et al., Ecography Open Access pdf 10.1002/ecog.08568

Impact of stratospheric aerosol injection on rangeland productivity and animal production in Africa, Ho et al., Frontiers in Environmental Science Open Access pdf 10.3389/fenvs.2026.1869700

Local climate variability indicators show differentiated socioecological impacts and opportunities for agroforestry-based adaptation in the Colombian Andean-Amazon, Ángel-Sánchez et al., Frontiers in Environmental Science Open Access pdf 10.3389/fenvs.2026.1881072

Minimizing climate change adaptation trade-offs in African rangelands, Clark et al., Nature Sustainability Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41893-026-01938-0

New labour and agricultural damages improve climate cost estimates, Moore et al., Nature Climate Change 10.1038/s41558-026-02749-z

Participatory assessment of agricultural value chain dynamics and market opportunities for smallholder farmers in climate-vulnerable coastal Bangladesh, Kabir et al., Scientific Reports Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41598-026-71038-8

Rethinking climate vulnerability in livestock systems: evidence from exposure, adaptation, and within-system heterogeneity in West Africa, Adéchian et al., Frontiers in Climate Open Access pdf 10.3389/fclim.2026.1868024

Sustainable grazing management supports climate change mitigation in a mediterranean pasture, Ishaq et al., Frontiers in Environmental Science Open Access pdf 10.3389/fenvs.2026.1917508

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Climate change exacerbates the environmental impacts of agriculture, Science, 10.1126/science.adn3747 524 cites.

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Hydrology, hydrometeorology & climate change

Extreme Dry and Humid Heat Seasons Are Changing Asymmetrically, Ivanovich et al., AGU Advances Open Access pdf 10.1029/2026av002516

Intensified Warm-Season Nighttime Precipitation over Large Tibetan Plateau Lakes: Evidence from Satellite Observations, Yang et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2026.09.006

Water governance under pressure: neoliberal structures and collaborative freshwater management in Lincolnshire, United Kingdom, Tariq et al., Frontiers in Environmental Science Open Access pdf 10.3389/fenvs.2026.1840817

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Evaluation of precipitation extremes in ERA5 reanalysis driven regional climate simulations over the CORDEX-Australasia domain, Weather and Climate Extremes, 10.1016/j.wace.2024.100676 17 cites.

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Climate change economics

Green energy and the shadow economy: implications for environmental sustainability in G7 countries, Uddin et al., Frontiers in Environmental Science Open Access 10.3389/fenvs.2026.1871821

Guaranteed income as an anticipatory action for climate change and disaster preparedness in the US, Prandoni et al., Frontiers in Climate Open Access pdf 10.3389/fclim.2026.1838033

Rethinking overseas expansion: climate risk and Chinese corporations’ cross-border mergers and acquisitions, Guo & Wu, Frontiers in Environmental Science Open Access pdf 10.3389/fenvs.2026.1896051

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
The role of green financial sector initiatives in the low-carbon transition: A theory of change, Global Environmental Change, 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2024.102915 30 cites.

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Climate change mitigation public policy research

Carbon mitigation governance strategies in Morocco, China, and Norway, Nefzi & Bouzidi, Discover Sustainability Open Access 10.1007/s43621-026-04602-x

Framing the transition: How consultants shape public energy governance in Sweden, Reindl et al., Energy Research & Social Science Open Access 10.1016/j.erss.2026.104959

Strategic pathways for decarbonization: a data-driven typology to strengthen climate policy, Bento et al., Figshare Open Access 10.6084/m9.figshare.33600992.v1

Tripartite evolutionary game analysis of emission reduction in EU road freight transport under ETD and ETS2 policies, Cai et al., Frontiers in Environmental Science Open Access 10.3389/fenvs.2026.1921416

Varieties of decarbonization: Comparing state narratives of Germany, India, and Mexico, Zambianchi et al., Energy Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.enpol.2026.115598

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
The impact of electricity market reform on renewable energy production, Energy Policy, 10.1016/j.enpol.2024.114306 35 cites.

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Climate change adaptation & adaptation public policy research

Assessing landslide probability changes under climate change scenarios as a basis for adaptation strategies, Chu et al., Bulletin of Engineering Geology and the Environment 10.1007/s10064-026-05309-z

Compound and heterogeneous relationships between climate extremes and global net migration, Petrova et al., Nature Climate Change Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41558-026-02752-4

Knowledge co-production and co-dissemination for climate change adaptation: insights based on Chokwe district, Mozambique, Jonas et al., Frontiers in Climate Open Access pdf 10.3389/fclim.2026.1935074

On race, racism and racialization: reflections on climate mobility, Baldwin, Climate and Development 10.1080/17565529.2026.2729553

The emergence of climate migration research as an academic field, Kohutova et al., Frontiers in Climate Open Access pdf 10.3389/fclim.2026.1825882

Weather extremes in migration dynamics: evidence from the Philippines, Innocenti & Randelli, Scientific Reports Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41598-026-67411-2

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
What is limiting how we imagine climate change adaptation?, Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability, 10.1016/j.cosust.2024.101476 45 cites.

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Climate change impacts on human health

Balancing urban green space benefits and vector-borne disease risk under climate change: Critical decision-making for 21st century public health, Ferguson et al., PLOS Climate Open Access pdf 10.1371/journal.pclm.0001016

Impact of Climate Warming on All-Causes Mortality in China: The Role of Non-Optimal Temperature Exposure and Multi-Scenario Projections to 2050, He et al., GeoHealth Open Access pdf 10.1029/2026gh001897

Intimate partner violence in sub-Saharan Africa under climate change and socioeconomic scenarios, Peisker et al., Global Environmental Change Open Access pdf 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2026.103224

Patient knowledge and views on the health impacts of climate change in primary care: a cross-sectional survey study, Stewart et al., Frontiers in Climate Open Access pdf 10.3389/fclim.2026.1930073

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Spatio-temporal characteristics of Heat stress over Nigeria using evaluated ERA5-HEAT reanalysis data, Weather and Climate Extremes, 10.1016/j.wace.2024.100704 24 cites.

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Climate change impacts on human culture

Climate Change and Outdoor Sport in Chile: A Review of Impacts, Risks, and Adaptation, Carrasco, Weather Climate and Society 10.1175/wcas-d-25-0217.1

Other

A strengthening yet less extreme Atlantic–European jet during winter, Brönnimann et al., Nature Geoscience Open Access 10.1038/s41561-026-02069-z

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
The 2023 Atlantic Hurricane Season: An Above-Normal Season despite Strong El Niño Conditions, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 10.1175/bams-d-23-0305.1 15 cites.

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Informed opinion, nudges & major initiatives
Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Disaster effects of climate change in High Mountain Asia: State of art and scientific challenges, Advances in Climate Change Research, 10.1016/j.accre.2024.06.003 75 cites.

Articles/Reports from Agencies and Non-Governmental Organizations Addressing Aspects of Climate Change

Indiana Renewables and the Residential Real Estate Market, Faulk et al., Purdue Extension Community Development and The Center for Business and Economic Research at Ball State University

This brief summarizes the findings of two larger reports examining how proximity to commercial wind turbines or large solar projects affect house values in Indiana. Using data from 2004 to 2024, the authors provide state-specific estimates to inform state and local officials and residents. They found no statistically significant negative effects on residential property values associated with proximity to large wind or utility-scale solar projects in Indiana.

Sustainability in Action 2026. The new rules of business resilience, Sweep and Cap Gemini

Climate disruption is costing companies now and the data cannot keep up. 94% of businesses report climate-related financial losses over the past two years, but 79% say their data is not sufficient to inform strategy. Fragmented data is the biggest thing standing between leaders and climate action Top barriers to sustainability data infrastructure, as reported by senior leaders: 34% limited system integration; 34% scaling across geographies; 31% incomplete Scope 3 or supplier data. These data may be behind, but the returns are already here. Share of leaders reporting measurable ROI today, by area: 43% from better procurement and supply chain efficiency; 52% from reduced regulatory and compliance costs; 41% from improved risk management.

Consumer Attitudes on Corporate Climate Action: Insights for Today’s Business Environment, Center for Climate and Energy Solutions, Maslansky + Partners, and Potential Energy

The business landscape around climate action has shifted dramatically. But not in the ways heated policy debates might suggest. An in-depth analysis of consumer attitudes via a survey of 2,000 voters across the U.S. reflecting a representative range of political affiliations, ages, and incomes supports a different conclusion. It reveals something surprising for some: despite increased political polarization and a challenging regulatory environment, the business case for climate action has continued holding strong. What’s more, the authors suggest that corporate retreat from environmental commitments carries more reputational and financial risk than maintaining a clear, consistent stance. And perhaps most surprisingly, even those skeptical of climate policy remain open to the business case. Across party lines, strong majorities believe that climate action is smart business and would support companies that invest in clean energy and limit climate pollution.

What are the top social media platforms used by each of Global Warming’s Six Americas?, Ettinger et al., Yale University and George Mason University

In Fall 2025, as part of a biannual Climate Change in the American Mind survey, the authors asked a nationally representative sample of Americans (n = 1,146) how often they visit 14 different social media platforms. They were also asked how often they hear about global warming on social media. Across Global Warming’s Six Americas, the most commonly visited social media platforms are YouTube, Facebook, and Instagram. The Alarmed hear about global warming on social media more often than other segments of the Six Americas.

California IOU Grid Capacity to Fully Serve Local Load with Distributed Solar+Storage Systems during Summer Peak/Net Peak Hours https://www.kevala.com/resources/grid-capacity-to-serve-local-load, Kevala, The Coalition for Community Solar Access

The authors estimate the amount and geographic concentration of large investor-owned utility (IOU) distribution-connected load in California that could be served by fully exporting front-of-the-meter distributed solar+storage resources, such as community solar+storage, or storage-only resources during summer peak and net peak demand hours without back-feeding onto the sub-transmission or transmission system. Specifically, the authors estimate the total load and corresponding number of 5-MW systems, each discharging at full capacity for 4 hours, that could be interconnected to the distribution grid and operated from 4 p.m. to 9 p.m. from June through September, with the discharged electricity being fully absorbed by local load behind each substation.

The Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative: An Initiative of Eastern States of the United States, Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative, Inc., Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative, Inc

The participating states of the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative (RGGI) released a report tracking the investment of proceeds generated from RGGI’s regional CO2 allowance auctions. The report tracks investments of RGGI proceeds in 2024 and summarizes how these investments promote ratepayer affordability, drive pollution reduction, and deliver additional benefits across the region. The RGGI states have individual discretion over how to invest proceeds according to state specific goals. Accordingly, states direct funds to a wide variety of programs, touching all aspects of the energy sector. In 2024, $856 million in RGGI proceeds were invested in programs including energy efficiency, clean and renewable energy, beneficial electrification, greenhouse gas abatement, and direct bill assistance. Over their lifetime, these 2024 investments are projected to provide participating households and businesses with $2.6 billion in energy bill savings and avoid the emission of 4.4 million short tons of CO2. The largest share of the investments was directed to energy efficiency, with 46% of the 2024 total. Other categories receiving significant investments include direct bill assistance, clean and renewable energy programs, beneficial electrification, and greenhouse gas abatement and climate adaptation programs.

Communicating about Climate and Clean Energy in an Age of Affordability, Andrea Everett, Heatmap and Embold Research

Each phase of research built on the previous one, starting with a large national survey to uncover the core values, priorities, and beliefs of three broad segments of the electorate with different views of climate change. These groups were labelled as Skeptics, Persuadables, and Persuadeds. For climate and clean energy communicators, the electorate is best understood as three distinct audiences. Persuadeds already believe in the 11 urgency of climate action and clean energy. What they lack is the conviction that their own actions matter, so the core tasks are to give them concrete, achievable things to do and to help them see that their efforts matter. Persuadables are open but unconvinced, and on the central issue of clean energy affordability they demand proof they can see close to home, rather than broad statistics or slogans. Skeptics, meanwhile, may be reachable through appeals to their values of personal freedom and energy independence, supplemented by evidence on cost and reliability, but with so few trusted messengers to make the case, clean energy remains a tough sell.

Ahead of the Deal: How the United States Can Build an Energy Project Pipeline in Emerging Markets, Katie Auth, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

The author argues that global U.S. electricity investment initiatives keep falling short for the same reason. Regardless of the divergent objectives and political rationales that drove each administration’s efforts, they all tried to mobilize private capital into energy projects using the same strategy: supporting individual deals at the very latest stages of project development. This works relatively well in mature economies, but not in the many emerging markets where few projects ever reach that point. The approach simply does not fit the reality of what is needed in the energy sectors of most emerging markets today. And it has left the primary implementer of U.S. development finance, the U.S. International Development Finance Corporation (DFC), with too few good projects in which to put its capital. To build a diversified pipeline of high-quality energy projects that feeds the DFC’s portfolio for years to come, achieves U.S. strategic goals, and expands commercial opportunities for American firms and technologies, U.S. development finance must pivot in three key ways including incentivize strategic, early-stage risk, delegate origination to external partners, and focus assistance on grid systems and procurement.

West-wide Transmission Study: 10-Year Horizon Report, Western Transmission Expansion Coalition

The 10-year Horizon Study offers a holistic, integrated evaluation of Western interregional transmission needs, with a focus on identifying transmission gaps and filling them with actionable projects. In performing the assessment, drivers of the growing need for transmission over the approaching 10 years became clear. Western Transmission Expansion Coalition's (WestTEC) forecasts show Western peak electric demand increasing by 30% in the next decade. This increase is more than three times greater than what the West experienced over the last decade. Nameplate generation capacity is anticipated to increase by 76% in the next decade, more than twice the historical rate. Plans to procure intermittent resources by several Western entities will increase reliance on transmission to manage supply variability. By 2035 the Western grid will increasingly depend on the geographic diversity of load and generation to maintain reliability, which drives high-volume power flows across and between regions. Extreme events requiring transfers between entities occur during summer and winter peaks, cold snaps, and periods of high generation output. This highlights how diversity strengthens the system but requires transmission capacity to do so.

The Cost of Heat: Managing Pennsylvania’s Thermal Transition, Kristin George Bagdanov and Kevin Carbonnier, Building Decarbonization Coalition

The authors call for a managed gas transition: a coordinated, regulator-led strategy to limit unnecessary gas investment, retire portions of the gas system where cost-effective alternatives exist, and protect customers and workers during the shift to cleaner heating and cooling. This managed gas transition is one part of a broader thermal transition: the long-term shift toward cleaner, more affordable, and better-coordinated systems for delivering heat. The analysis that follows traces how Act 11 accelerated gas system spending, how those costs affect customer bills, and why neighborhood.

The Impact of Climate and Environmental Change on Brain Health, Ikiz et al., International Neuro Climate Working Group

The authors synthesize the current scientific evidence on how climate related environmental exposures affect neurological health, mental health, cognition, neurodevelopment, and healthy brain aging. In addition to presenting the Neuro Climate Framework, the authors identify priority directions for future research through the Neuro Climate Research Agenda and outlines stakeholder-specific recommendations through the Neuro Climate Action Roadmap, providing practical guidance for researchers, policymakers, healthcare professionals, educators, communities, individuals, and international organizations.

2026 NYC Heat-Related Mortality Report, Bureau of Environmental Surveillance and Policy, New York City Department of Health and Mental Hygiene

Heat contributes to the deaths of approximately 500 New Yorkers, on average, each year during the warm season of May through September. Inequities by race and income persist in the people and neighborhoods most impacted. Deaths across all races, however, were more common at home, underscoring the importance of access to and affordability of home cooling to prevent death. The authors report estimated trends in heat-exacerbated deaths for the current and past several decades (1974-2023) in 10-year rolling time windows to provide more stable estimates than previous 5-year aggregation and align with the 10-year period used to describe the temperature-risk relationship in the report. For heat-stress deaths, counts and the annual average for the past ten years (2016-2025) are reported.

Disaster Risk: Improvements Needed to Enhance FEMA’s National Risk Index, Currie et al., United States Government Accountability Office

The authors found that the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) partially followed leading practices for risk assessment and information quality during the development, operation, and maintenance of the National Risk Index (NRI). The authors made three recommendations, including that FEMA provide information to users on how to apply NRI results effectively and systematically solicit, collect, and incorporate user feedback to inform NRI improvements.

Winter 2026 Arctic Events: A System Performance Review, Clark et al., Federal Energy Regulatory Commission and North American Electric Reliability Corporation

This system performance review focuses on understanding what occurred during the Winter 2026 Arctic Cold Period. The authors also highlight cold weather preparation improvements made prior to the Winter 2026 Arctic Cold Period that supported reliable operation of the Bulk-Power System during the period. The authors engaged with numerous electric and natural gas entities across the eastern half of the United States3 and Texas to gather the information necessary to provide an overview of the performance of the Bulk-Power System and natural gas system during the Winter 2026 Arctic Cold Period. The authors' analysis shows that the Winter 2026 Arctic Cold Period was fundamentally an endurance challenge (sustained reliable operation during extended periods of system stress) that stretched electric and natural gas systems for several days, revealing how extended cold snaps amplify risks across generator performance, fuel supply chains, load forecasting, interregional energy transfers, and system operators. Electric entities reported multi-day reliability challenges driven by equipment cold weather limitations, deferred maintenance, and constrained fuel availability, while natural gas systems faced infrastructure constraints, production obstacles, and logistical barriers that affected upstream deliveries and non-fuel consumables.

Wetlands for Climate Partnership Report (California), Pietri et al., The Nature Conservancy et al

California has lost more than 90% of its historic wetlands, prompting major state investments through initiatives such as AB 1757, CARB’s Scoping Plan, Pathways to 30x30, and Proposition 4. Drawing on workshops, agency discussions, and practitioner engagement conducted from 2024 to 2026, the authors present current progress, persistent barriers, and key opportunities to accelerate wetland restoration and management needed to achieve California’s climate, resilience, and biodiversity goals.

Spending and Safety Outcomes in U.S. Gas Distribution Systems: An Assessment of DIMP & PHMSA’s Call to Action, Seavey et al., The Future of Heat Initiative

Over the past 15 years, two federal initiatives — the Gas Distribution Integrity Management Program rule and Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration's Call to Action — have fundamentally reshaped how U.S. gas utilities invest in safety, one by promoting integrity management and the other by encouraging accelerated replacement of certain pipelines. The authors presents the first comprehensive evaluation of these initiatives. They found that utility safety spending has been significantly misallocated: since 2011, capital spending is up 200% and customer delivery charges have nearly doubled, yet measured safety outcomes have not improved commensurately. The analysis traces this divergence to regulatory frameworks that often fail to ensure that capital investments are guided by rigorous risk assessment and systematic evaluation of alternative risk-mitigation strategies. The authors urge state and federal regulators, utilities, and other interested parties to take action to improve outcomes for the public.

A fossil-free Australia: An ambitious Paris-aligned phase-out of coal, gas and oil from the national energy system, Houlie et al., Climate Analytics

The authors show that Australia can meet its climate goals and reach net zero emissions by phasing out fossil fuels. The authors modelled a new Fossil Fuel Phase-out (FFPO) scenario, a Paris-aligned pathway for Australia informed by the latest global evidence. This scenarios' results are then compared to the Australian government's current policies - the Current Policy Projections (CPP) scenario. A fossil fuel phase-out for Australia to meet its climate commitments and to play its role in global efforts to limit warming to 1.5°C is urgent. The authors show this is possible in all sectors, present policies the government needs to adopt, and highlight what the government is not doing - or needs to be doing more of. The government needs to start this phase-out now.

Global Snapshot of Climate-related School Disruptions in 2025, Ji et al., United Nations Children's Fund

Globally, at least 171 million students – from pre-primary to upper secondary education – experienced school disruptions due to climate events in 2025. Climate-related school disruptions in 2025 could cost affected students at least US$200 billion in lifetime earnings through lost learning and widening education inequities. At least 1 in 10 students had their schooling disrupted due to climate-related hazards in 2025. 75 per cent of the 171 million affected students are in low- and lower middle-income countries. Schools in 106 countries or territories were affected by climate hazards, with 40 countries experiencing multiple instances of school disruptions.

Methane Made in America, University of California, Los Angeles, School of Law

The authors provide a user-friendly ranking of the Top 10 oil and gas sites in three basins, Appalachia, Permian, and Haynesville, as seen by one of the most sophisticated methane-detection satellites in the world. The authors define the Top 10 sites as those with the highest average methane emission rate observed from January 1,?2025, to June 1,?2026, by the Tanager-1 satellite, excluding sources with two or fewer detected plumes. Where possible, the authors also identify the “potentially responsible operator” of each site and give information on the site’s public health effects.

Ratepayer Impacts of Arizona Public Service’s Gas Resources, McGarvey et al., Sierra Club and Synapse Energy Economics

Natural gas purchases to fuel Arizona Public Service (APS) power plants currently account for 5% of residential bills. Gas prices can be affected by external factors including global geopolitical events and domestic extreme weather events. Therefore, APS’s reliance on gas resources exposes ratepayers to fuel price volatility risk. Gas price spikes could increase average residential customer bills by over $9 per month. Data centers are driving up electricity demand in Arizona. Since its 2023 Integrated Resource Plan, APS has increased its' planned additions for 2030 by 4.6 GW to meet increased demand. APS is responding by increasing its' reliance on gas. APS plans to increase nameplate capacity of natural gas from 5.1 GW in 2023 to 7.8 GW in 2030, a 48% increase. Gas could make up 32% of the company's generation mix, compared to 19% in 2023. This will lock customers into increased bills for many years and increase ratepayer exposure to gas price risks. About New Research

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This is a re-post from Yale Climate Connections by Sanket Jain

Extreme heat and widespread drought related to climate change have been in the headlines this summer everywhere from Europe to the Colorado River Basin to Puerto Rico and Bangladesh. But drought is only the beginning of the problem for drinking water. Scientists say the depleted groundwater supplies that remain will warm by 2.1 degrees C globally by the end of this century – changing their chemistry and leading to contamination. 

And heat is just one concern. Droughts and fluctuating rainfall patterns are also altering groundwater quality. The good news is that around the world, local and regional authorities are experimenting with ways to replenish groundwater, including methods for collecting excess rainfall or surface runoff and channeling it to replenish aquifers. The work is in early stages, but some methods already are showing promise.

Warming water, changing chemistry 

As groundwater warms, dissolved gases become less soluble, while organisms underground can consume oxygen more rapidly. Because many aquifers already contain little oxygen, modest warming could make them even more oxygen-poor. 

In some aquifers, this shift can mobilize naturally occurring contaminants such as arsenic, manganese, and phosphorus from surrounding rocks into groundwater, making it less safe to drink. The extra phosphorus can fuel harmful algal blooms when groundwater eventually flows into rivers and lakes. Warmer groundwater may also favor pathogens linked to waterborne diseases.

Under a stable climate, Earth gets warmer deeper underground because heat from the Earth’s core moves toward the cooler land surface, explained Barret Kurylyk, a professor of civil and resource engineering at Dalhousie University and Canada Research Chair in Coastal Water Resources. 

“In the past few decades, the land surface has warmed due to climate change,” he said. 

As the surface becomes warmer than shallow aquifers, the usual temperature difference reverses, causing heat to move downward toward groundwater. Movement of rain or snow downward can also transfer heat into groundwater, exacerbating the change in groundwater chemistry. 

This heat transfer matters because groundwater accounts for 99% of the Earth’s liquid freshwater, provides about half the world’s drinking water, and supplies nearly 40% of the water used for irrigation. By 2100, an estimated 77-188 million people are expected to live in areas where groundwater exceeds the highest drinking-water temperature acceptable threshold adopted by any country.

What happens after a drought

In the remote Kasanal village in Southern India’s Karnataka state, Santosh Naik says the annual monsoon is no longer enough to fill his two wells. The 38-year-old farmer said that by August 2026, his 60-foot wells were 90% empty, even though they would normally fill within a month of the rains. 

Naik has spent over a decade drilling deeper in search of water. Since 2011, he has dug 14 borewells – narrow, machine-drilled shafts – across his five-acre farm, each about 300 feet underground. Now only three are functioning. But he is not just worried about declining levels. The water quality is changing too, he says.

“Earlier, we used to drink water from borewells and wells, but if you drink that water now, you will definitely fall ill,” he said. 

He added that the entire village has stopped drinking water from its wells. 

Naik grows sugarcane, soybean, peanuts and sorghum, but his harvests have been falling as his water supply has gotten saltier. Since 2020, his annual sugarcane production has been about 80,000 kilograms lower, costing him about 280,000 Indian rupees ($2,935). 

His experience illustrates a broader problem across India. An analysis of 20,994 groundwater observations estimated that about 29% of the study area, including 25% of cropland, had elevated groundwater salinity. 

Changing contaminants 

Scientists confirm that climate extremes can change how water moves through the soil and what it carries. One team monitored 13 groundwater wells across three aquifer systems in Germany for up to eight years. As groundwater levels declined, its molecular composition increasingly resembled that of water draining through the soil. 

Senior study author Gerd Gleixner, a biogeochemist and professor at the Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry, said that during drought, larger pores open up in soils. When heavy rain follows, these pores can carry water rapidly toward groundwater instead of allowing it to move slowly through the upper soil. 

“The problem is that this water that comes down is not supposed to go down directly. It is supposed to go more slowly, so that there is more time for progressive processing in the upper part,” Gleixner said. 

The upper soil normally acts as a kind of “main bioreactor,” processing substances before they reach the groundwater. But rapid flow through these pores can bypass some of this processing, allowing substances from the surface to reach groundwater more directly.

Gleixner said this rapid downward movement can carry unwanted substances from the surface into groundwater, including antibiotics and, potentially, microplastics. 

Scientists are also investigating what happens to groundwater when it is pumped more heavily during droughts. Researchers in California’s San Joaquin Valley analyzed water-quality records from over 3,000 public drinking-water wells over the 2012-2016 drought and the recovery that followed. During the drought, nitrate and total dissolved solids increased in many wells. As pumping intensified, wells drew a larger share of modern-aged groundwater, which was more likely to contain contaminants linked to human activities, such as nitrate. As wetter conditions returned and groundwater levels recovered, many of these changes reversed.

The water people once trusted

Farmer Shivaji Tasgave, 83, no longer trusts the water from a 200-year-old well that served his family for generations after it turned blackish and foul-smelling. 

But when the rains failed to arrive as expected, he was forced to rely on this water to irrigate his crops. Half his peanut and sugarcane failed to grow. 

In his remote Jambhali village in Western India, Tasgave said that almost 150 wells in his neighborhood have become unusable because of deteriorating groundwater quality.

Along coastlines, groundwater quality can change when the balance between freshwater flowing toward the sea and seawater moving inland is disturbed. Under natural conditions, groundwater flows from land toward the sea, creating a pressure that helps keep seawater from moving inland. When that freshwater pressure weakens, seawater can move farther inland into freshwater aquifers.

A team of scientists in Germany found many coastal groundwater systems are vulnerable to this shift. Between 1990 and 2024, they analyzed about 480,000 coastal groundwater monitoring locations worldwide. They found statistically significant groundwater-level changes in 28% of observations over nine-year windows, and 21% over 19-year windows. Declines became more frequent in the last nine years. 

“These declines may reflect a combination of causes, including lower rainfall, drought and reduced groundwater recharge, but also potentially unsustainable groundwater abstraction that exceeds groundwater recharge,” said Annika Nolte, an environmental and data scientist at the University of Bremen, Germany, who led the study.

“Seawater intrusion can make groundwater less suitable or unsuitable for human consumption and may ultimately threaten reliable drinking-water supplies from wells,” she added. 

When saline groundwater is used for irrigation, it can also reduce soil fertility and crop yields. A global meta-analysis found that irrigation with salty water reduced crop yields by 17.3% compared with freshwater irrigation.

Giving groundwater a chance to recover

In many parts of the world, researchers are experimenting with different ways to help aquifers recover. Monitoring groundwater levels and salinity, and improving estimates of present and future groundwater recharge, are essential to determine how much water can be withdrawn without weakening freshwater heads, Nolte said.

In the Netherlands, a solution named "Water Battery" has been operating near the village of Epe since 2015. Water from natural springs is collected in a human-made reservoir and then pumped to infiltration ponds, where it seeps into the groundwater. The water is stored underground, while natural biogeochemical processes improve its quality before the groundwater is extracted.

California has been adopting a similar strategy. Excess surface water can be diverted onto selected farm fields to replenish depleted aquifers, increasing groundwater storage and improving water availability during dry periods. Separate field studies in California almond orchards have also shown that flooding fields during the trees’ dormant winter period, in moderately drained to well-drained soils, has little effect on root production or crop yields. 

Cities are also finding ways to use stormwater effectively. In the Argentine coastal city of Pinamar, researchers evaluated rain gardens, which are shallow, planted areas designed to collect stormwater and let it soak into the ground. Gardens improved groundwater recharge, particularly during low-intensity rains, where recharge efficiency increased more than sixfold. 

Although the approaches differ, the idea remains the same: Instead of moving excess water away, let the ground hold on to it. 

This article first appeared on Yale Climate Connections and is republished here under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.

 

//

This is a re-post from The Climate Brink by Andrew Dessler

A few days ago, on an atmospheric sciences mailing list, Prof. Gary Lackmann pointed out that August 2026 set a record for the amount of water vapor in the atmosphere. I thought this was right in TCB’s wheelhouse, so I’ve dug further into the numbers in this post.

What does “precipitable water” mean?

Precipitable water (abbreviated PWAT) is the water in the atmosphere that’s available to condense and fall as rain or snow. We quantify it by calculating how deep a puddle it would make if you condensed all of the water vapor in the atmosphere and rained it to the surface. The value is typically reported in millimeters.

Here is the average PWAT over the 1991–2020 period. The global average is about 24 mm, enough to make a puddle about an inch deep.

The distribution of PWAT follows the distribution of temperature. The reason is thermodynamics: the amount of water vapor that air can hold increases by roughly 7% for every degree Celsius of warming, following the Clausius–Clapeyron relation. The result is high PWAT in warm tropics and low PWAT in cold polar regions.

It is increasing

The planet has been warming, so you might expect that the PWAT should also be rising. Indeed, this is what we see. Here is global-mean PWAT for every August since 1979.

Also plotted is the August global average temperature; it’s also going up. In fact, we see the expected correlation (r = 0.86) between PWAT and temperature.

August 2026’s PWAT was 1.5 mm above the average PWAT in August of the 1980s, a difference of 5.8%. This is in the ballpark of what we would expect given the ~1°C of global average warming over this period.

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A few days ago, news came out that August 2026 was the hottest month in the last 170 years. Yup, climate change strikes again (with an assist from El Niño).

link

Therefore, it might not be too surprising that August 2026 also set a record for PWAT, 27.35 mm, beating the previous record (July 2024) by 0.04 mm1.

The data I analyzed only goes back to 1979, but given the very strong connection between PWAT and temperature, it is unimaginable that any month in the last few thousand years, maybe 100,000 years, has more PWAT in the atmosphere than August 2026. We are, as the proverb says, living in interesting times.

Why this matters: extreme rain

PWAT is one of the most important factors that controls the intensity of rainfall. In particular, we expect increases in PWAT to increase the frequency or intensity of extreme precipitation events. This has been confirmed in data. For example, Kunkel et al. (2020) concluded:

An analysis of 3,104 stations in the United States shows virtually every station exhibits a positive correlation between precipitable water (PW) and extreme daily precipitation (EP) with over one-third statistically significant.

In Trenberth et al. (2003), the authors state:

We have argued that because heavy rainfall rates greatly exceed evaporation rates and thus depend on low-level moisture convergence, then the rainfall intensity should also increase at about the same rate as the moisture increase, namely 7% per K with warming.

The IPCC AR6 report says:

In summary, precipitation extremes are controlled by both thermodynamic and dynamic processes. Warming-induced thermodynamic change results in an increase in extreme precipitation, at a rate that closely follows the C-C [Clausius–Clapeyron] relationship at the global scale (high confidence).

So the increase in PWAT is not just a weirdo statistic. It is a statement about the ceiling on the worst rain events we can face.

July 4 flooding

As an example of a real-life case, let’s consider the flooding in Texas on July 3-4, 2025. This tragic rain event caused flooding that claimed the lives of more than 130 people, including 27 campers and counselors at Camp Mystic.

The PWAT over Texas for that event was incredibly high. Here is a plot of the percentile rank of PWAT at 2 am CDT on July 4, 2025.

Percentile rank of precipitable water at 2 AM CDT on 4 July 2025, relative to all hours within ±10 days of July 4 in 1979–2025.

Most of the state has PWAT above the 95th percentile, with a large plume of moisture in the middle of the state exceeding the 99.9th percentile. Here is a histogram of PWAT for the grid point closest to Kerrville:

Distribution of precipitable water over Kerrville for all hours within ±10 days of July 4, 1979–2025. The red line marks 2 AM on 4 July 2025

PWAT over Kerrville was 55.6 mm, about 60% higher than a typical early-July value of 35 mm. Out of 23,688 late-June/early-July hours over 47 years of data, only 23 hours were moister.

It is inarguable that the high PWAT contributed to the extreme rain of this event. Given that we can connect increases in PWAT to global warming, we can confidently conclude that climate change made this rain event more intense than it otherwise would have been.

The bottom line

The atmosphere holds more water vapor than it used to because it is warmer than it used to be. August 2026 saw the highest water vapor levels in the modern record due to the extreme warmth from climate change and the El Niño. This trend is not going to stop as long as we’re dumping carbon into the atmosphere and it’s going to contribute to more and more intense rain events.

Code for the plots in this post can be found here.

1 That doesn’t sound like much, but it corresponds to about 5 trillion gallons of water.

This is a re-post from Carbon Brief by Josh Gabbatiss, Daisy Dunne, Molly Lempriere, Dr Simon Evans

Reform UK, led by Nigel Farage, has emerged as a major force in UK politics in recent years – pushing anti-net-zero policies, alongside vehement opposition to immigration.

The hard-right populist party is currently mired in a funding controversy and only has a handful of MPs, yet, until recently, it had been leading in national polls for more than a year.

As seen with many similar parties across Europe and beyond, a rejection of climate science is central to Reform’s ideological outlook.

Richard Tice, the party’s deputy leader, is a vocal critic of what he calls “net stupid zero” and has incorrectly blamed “the sun or volcanoes” for human-caused global warming.

As Reform’s energy spokesperson, Tice has also been clear that, if the party were ever to form a national government, it would scrap the UK’s net-zero target, support fossil-fuel expansion and tear up existing contracts for renewable energy.

While less vocal on the subject, Farage has, nevertheless, expressed climate-sceptic views and falsely blamed net-zero policies for the “deindustrialisation of Britain”.

These views draw on long-standing, inaccurate climate-sceptic narratives and are reflected in Reform’s election manifestos, its actions in local government and the opinions of many of its supporters.

Here, Carbon Brief gathers together by topic and factchecks 45 false or misleading claims made by the party’s leadership relating to climate change, renewables and net-zero.

• Climate science

• Net-zero target

• Energy costs

• Oil and gas

• Impacts and adaptation

• Clean energy

Climate science

FALSE

Tice: “There’s no evidence that man-made CO2 is going to change climate change…The Norwegian government’s own equivalent of our ONS [Office of National Statistics] has recently produced a report along the lines of what I’m saying.”

Sky News, February 2025

The world’s authority on climate science, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), says it is “unequivocal” that humans have warmed the planet, primarily through releasing greenhouse gases.

The IPCC says that, due to human activities, concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO2) “have increased at rates that have no precedent on centennial timescales in at least the past 800,000 years”.

It adds that concentrations of CO2 in the atmosphere are now higher than they have been for at least the past two million years.

The report that Tice is referring to is by two independent authors, with Statistics Norway clarifying in 2024 that their views are “not the official stance” of the statistics bureau. (It has also not been formally peer reviewed.)

A factcheck of the Norwegian report by a climate scientist for RealClimate describes it as “misguided” and a “distraction due to errors”.

Another factcheck published by the Norwegian University of Science and Technology found it “contains standard talking-points of climate denial”.

MISLEADING

Tice: “Look, the climate’s always changed for millions of years. And it goes through cycles, long, medium and short.”

Bloomberg, May 2026

Global temperatures are currently around 1.4C hotter than when the industrial era first began in 1850-1900, as shown in the figure below.

The IPCC says that this amount of warming is likely to have made Earth hotter than at any time in about 125,000 years.

Data from NASA GISTEMP, NOAA GlobalTemp, Hadley/UEA HadCRUT5, Berkeley Earth, Copernicus ERA5, JRA-3Q, DCENT, and China-MST. Temperature records are aligned over the 1981-2010 period and use the WMO approach to calculate warming relative to pre-industrial levels (1850-1900).

Scientists overwhelmingly agree that approximately 100% of this warming has been caused by humans. 

There are also natural influences that can affect Earth’s climate on shorter timescales, such as El Niño events, volcanic eruptions and small variations in the output of the sun. However, scientists have found that these have only a limited effect on the underlying trend of long-term global warming.

When looking at longer timescales of millions of years or more, Earth has experienced multiple ice ages interspersed with warmer periods.

These changes in climate were triggered by variations in Earth’s orbit around the sun, in combination with subtle fluctuations in the tilt and rotation of the planet, over tens of thousands of years. However, the resulting changes to CO2 levels in the atmosphere also played a role.

This should serve as a “cautionary example”, according to Dr Zeke Hausfather, a climate scientist and Carbon Brief contributor, “because human emissions of CO2 and other greenhouse gases push the Earth further out of the range of climate conditions that have characterised the past few million years”.

FALSE

Tice: “The idea that you can stop the power of the sun or volcanoes is simply ludicrous.”

BBC Breakfast, June 2024

Scientists overwhelmingly agree that humans have caused 100% of recent climate change.

Tice’s suggestion that the sun or volcanic eruptions are behind current warming is false.

As the video below explains, the sun and volcanic eruptions have little bearing on the long-term trend of global temperature rise since the Industrial Revolution.

Click here to read the rest

A listing of 28 news and opinion articles we found interesting and shared on social media during the past week: Sun, September 6, 2026 thru Sat, September 12, 2026. Stories we promoted this week, by category:

Climate Change Impacts (10 articles)

• Satellite images of penguin droppings reveal impact of antarctic warming Penguin colonies are so large that their masses of excrement can be seen from space, offering scientists a useful means of studying the Antarctic birds. An analysis of 30 years of satellite images of penguin guano shows how the birds’ diets are shifting in response to warming. Yale Environment 360, Staff, Sep 06, 2026.
• Learning from the summers of 1976 and 2026 We have changed the climate in which our weather happens Climat Lab Book, Ed Hawkins, Sep 7, 2026.
• How climate change may amplify the impact of earthquakes in the Arctic Phys.org, Helmholtz Association of German Research Centres, Sep 07, 2026.
• America is losing its war against wildfire The opportunities to let wildfire do its job are being increasingly extinguished by hotter, drier conditions that last longer throughout the year. Grist, Mark Betancourt, Sep 08, 2026.
• Many People Aren`t Connecting the Dots Between Climate Change and Extreme Weather Scientific evidence has never been stronger. Why aren’t more people making the link? Inside Climate News, Kiley Price, Sep 08, 2026.
• Can an entire Arctic ecosystem evolve to adapt to the climate crisis? In the first project of its kind, scientists are trying to answer if the future of Alaska’s streams and tundra may depend not on survival of the fittest but on how species adapt together The Guardian, Gloria Dickie, Sep 09, 2026.
• We just had the hottest August, hottest summer, and hottest year to date in U.S. history NOAA data show unprecedented heat, as deepening drought, shrinking reservoirs, and a severe wildfire season underscore the growing impacts of a warming climate. Could El Niño bring some relief? Yale Climate Connections, Bob Henson, Sep 09, 2026.
• Major study to assess impacts of climate change on Scotland`s canals Scottish Canals is working with two globally renowned climate and heritage experts to assess the growing challenges posed by climate change to Scotland’s network of canals. The Herald News, Craig Williams, Sep 10, 2026.
• Climate `feedback loops` could worsen global warming by 30%, study finds Emissions of planet-heating methane and CO2 from natural sources are worsening the climate crisis, paper says The Guardian, Oliver Milman, Sep 10, 2026.
• Earth just had its hottest August on record The intensifying super El Niño, combined with global warming, is favored to make 2026 the hottest year on record, with 2027 expected to be even hotter. Yale Climate Connections, Jeff Masters and Bob Henson, Sep 10, 2026.

Climate Policy and Politics (4 articles)

• The Worst Case Is Still on the Table Why removing RCP8.5 from the National Climate Assessment would be a serious mistake The Climate Brink, Andrew Dessler, Sep 04, 2026.
• Climate experts respond to the government’s plan to amend the Fifth National Climate Assessment Climate.Us, Rebecca Lindsey, Sep 8, 2026.
• As science comes under attack at UN talks, climate movement splits over how to respond A rift over how IPCC messages are produced and turned into policy is creating tensions in the world’s most influential coalition of climate NGOs Climate Home News, Matteo Civillini, Sep 09, 2026.
• With multilateralism in crisis, what`s next for climate philanthropy? Climate philanthropy must do more than fill the gaps left by retreating governments and find new ways to support climate action in a fragmented global landscape. Climate Home News, Megan Rowling, Sep 11, 2026.

Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation (3 articles)

• This is the work of our lifetime: Ayana Elizabeth Johnson urges action after new UN climate report A United Nations report has found that the world will warm to 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels. Climate solutions advocate Ayana Elizabeth Johnson urges a quicker implementation of known strategies - and determination rather than despair. NPR, Joel Rose, Sep 05, 2026.
• Rewetting peatlands may curb warming-driven CO? emissions Press release from the University of Münster about a new paper published in Nature Communications. Phys.org, Kathrin Kottke, Sep 10, 2026.
• How California is kicking its natural gas habit Solar and batteries matter, but they’re not the only reasons for the steep decline in gas-fired electricity. Inside Climate News, Dan Gearino, Sep 11, 2026.

Public Misunderstandings about Climate Science (3 articles)

• Reform continues to cast doubt on climate science. Do its supporters agree? Climate scepticism is common at the Reform party conference, but many also criticise Labour for failing to protect Britons from hot weather The Guardian, Fiona Harvey, Sep 05, 2026.
• Fixing one of climate`s worst plots This is the third and last in our series discussing the use of unadjusted data and how it overstates the warmth of the 1930s over the U.S. Skeptical Science, Andrew Dessler, Sep 07, 2026.
• Factcheck: Reform UK`s 45 false or misleading claims about climate and energy Carbon Brief gathers together by topic and factchecks 45 false or misleading claims made by the ReformUK's leadership relating to climate change, renewables and net-zero. Carbon Brief, Carbon Brief Staff, Sep 11, 2026.

Health Aspects of Climate Change (2 article)

• Can Studying Heat Waves in Real Time Save Lives? Heat drove medical emergencies across the country last summer. Tracking those changes more quickly could help doctors prepare. Inside Climate News, Keerti Gopal, Sep 04, 2026.
• The Guardian view on extreme heat: its scale should be a wake-up call to us all | Editorial With thousands dead across Europe this summer, it’s time to recognise heatwaves as the major natural disasters they are The Guardian, Editorial, Sep 06, 2026.

Climate Education and Communication (2 articles)

• Climate Trunk - Political Economy Summary post of John Lang's Climate Trunk visuals in the "Political Economy" ring Skeptical Science, Bärbel Winkler, Sep 09, 2026.
• Beyond the heatwave: what it really takes for climate warnings to cut through in the UK As trust in institutions wavers, experts say local, collective action is more effective in driving change The Guardian, Natalie Wint, Sep 12, 2026.

Public Misunderstandings about Climate Solutions (1 article)

• Does hosting wind turbines provide farmers with additional income? Yes - Wind projects provide farmers with substantial economic benefits while allowing most land to remain in agricultural use. Skeptical Science, Sue Bin Park, Sep 8, 2026.

Climate Law and Justice (1 article)

• Global warming is ruining their way of life. These Colorado ranchers demand accountability A group of Colorado ranchers who are struggling with severe drought and heat have filed a friend-of-the-court brief in a climate case that soon will be heard by the U.S. Supreme Court. The ranchers say that big oil companies should be held accountable for their role in causing climate change. LA Times, Ian James, Sep 05, 2026.

Climate Science and Research (1 article)

• The Arctic Report Card Matters More Than Ever; AGU Joins Partners to Publish in 2026 The critical and highly anticipated yearly assessment will be carried forward through a partnership with CIRES/CU Boulder and the University of Alaska Fairbanks. Eos, Chris Avery and Kristen Averyt Hinton, Sep 09, 2026.

Miscellaneous (1 article)

• Skeptical Science New Research for Week #36 2026 A listing of 28 news and opinion articles we found interesting and shared on social media during the past week: Sun, August 30, 2026 thru Sat, September 5, 2026. Skeptical Science, Bärbel Winkler & Doug Bostrom, Sep 6, 2026.

If you happen upon high quality climate-science and/or climate-myth busting articles from reliable sources while surfing the web, please feel free to submit them via this Google form so that we may share them widely. Thanks!

Open access notables

Early warning signals for tipping points in complex climate systems, LIU et al., Advances in Climate Change Research

The growing risk of climate tipping events underscores the urgent need for reliable early warning signals (EWS). Here we synthesize recent advances in EWS research for climate systems, systematically categorizing available methods into three groups, namely statistical indicators, nonlinear dynamical diagnostics, and data-driven approaches, and evaluating their theoretical applicability to practical limitations. In conclusion, statistical indicators offer theoretical clarity but are sensitive to non-stationary noise, nonlinear dynamical methods provide enhanced robustness in high-dimensional settings, and network- and deep learning-based approaches show the potential for detecting diverse tipping types, particularly when integrated with physical constraints and multi-modal observations. Given these trade-offs, we advocate for three practical strategies to enhance EWS utility, including adopting ensemble frameworks that combine multiple indicators to reduce false alarms, advancing cascade EWS to capture cross-system tipping interactions, and shifting from qualitative trend warnings toward quantitative, threshold-defined predictions with quantifiable uncertainties. We also discuss supporting techniques for these strategies, including adaptive noise filtering, dimensionality reduction, satellite data integration, and physics-informed machine learning. This review provides a structured reference for method selection across climate subsystems and data regimes, and underscores that operational EWS will require sustained integration of nonlinear dynamics, Earth observation, and data science.

Countering climate misinformation with large language models: Evidence from ChatGPT, Tsang & Wang, PLOS Climate

Public support for climate action hinges on the integrity of information environments. In an online experiment, U.S. adults used ChatGPT to evaluate climate-related claims. We first conducted computational text analysis of GPT conversation logs, assessing valence, formality, bias, recency, authority cues, and semantic richness of ChatGPT’s responses using language-model based classifiers and link-level metadata. Concurrently, we measured credibility judgments for both the claims and ChatGPT’s responses through participant self-reports. Credibility perceptions were driven primarily by individual differences; greater acceptance of the scientific consensus, attention to climate change, prior familiarity with ChatGPT, and younger age predicted higher perceived credibility. Once these factors were accounted for, authority cues were associated with slightly less extreme climate attitudes, while positive valence and semantic richness correlated positively with perceived credibility. These results support transparent, unbiased, audience-tailored engagement as a pathway to strengthen responsible climate communication and help bridge the gap between scientific consensus and public understanding.

Lost in Projection: Uncertainty is Misrepresented in Climate Risk and Vulnerability Assessments, Curran et al., Risk Analysis

In practice, many climate change risk assessments fail to capture the true depth of uncertainty. Despite widespread scientific recognition of deep uncertainty (large ranges of possibility) in climate conditions, this nuance is often lost in translation to policy and planning contexts; instead, conditions are presented as single projections. This means that communities are making large-scale infrastructure investments and long-term policy commitments based on false precision, leaving them unprepared for climate surprises or potentially wasting resources and disrupting communities unnecessarily by overadapting. To examine how climate uncertainties are represented and accounted for in adaptation planning, we conducted a structured review of 39 climate risk and vulnerability assessments from across the world, using sea level rise as a case study. These documents inform policy that guides billions of dollars in infrastructure investments and shape community preparedness strategies. Our analysis reveals that only 54% of these documents correctly represent sea level rise as deeply uncertain. This issue is compounded when making decisions; 71% of decisions were made by misapplying scenarios as individual projections to plan for, rather than as a tool for exploring potential future conditions, directly contradicting their intended use. This demonstrates a gap between scientific understanding of climate uncertainty and planning practice. Addressing this gap requires improved uncertainty communication, moving beyond just quantifying uncertainty to also characterizing uncertainty. This must be done in conjunction with the support of decision makers to incorporate a stronger understanding of uncertainty into planning by using tools designed specifically for decision making in deeply uncertain environments.

From this week's government/NGO section:

How Climate Resilient Are the World’s Largest Cities?, AlphaGeo

Geography is not destiny. Cities with near-identical physical risk scores diverge by as much as 33 resilience-adjusted risk (RAJ) points depending on the adaptation measures in place — demonstrating that risk is not fixed, and that resilience is a function of policy and investment, not geography alone. South Asian megacities face a compounding crisis. Ahmedabad (RAJ 41), Hyderabad Pakistan (41), Multan (38), Dhaka (36), Kolkata (35), and Lahore (35) combine extreme physical exposure with only moderate adaptation performance. European, African, and Latin American capitals outperform. Chicago, Addis Ababa, Melbourne, Barcelona, Buenos Aires, Paris, and Nairobi all score below 14 on the RAJ scale, making them among the most resilient major cities globally. Chinese megacities are closing the gap. Beijing (50%), Tianjin (49%), Shenzhen (49%), and Shanghai (46%) lead globally on adaptation efficiency — consistently converting high physical exposure into substantially lower residual risk. Mispriced risk is concentrated in South Asia. South Asia accounts for the majority of cities where residual RAJ scores remain high and adaptation rates remain comparatively low relative to the scale of physical exposure.

Heathrow Airport expansion risks for the Climate Change Act, Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Manchester

The authors examine whether a third runway at Heathrow Airport is compatible with the UK’s domestic and international legal climate change obligations, and shows how growing airport capacity before climate technologies succeed will break the UK’s carbon budget. Through an analysis of future UK aviation scenarios and reviewing the status and outlook for key technology options, the authors findings show that Heathrow expansion cannot reasonably be considered consistent with UK Government climate targets. The authors examine three questions including the level of demand implied by an expanded Heathrow Airport; whether sustainable aviation fuels (SAF) can mitigate emissions arising from any net additional demand; and if greenhouse gas removal (GGR) expansion can address remaining additional residual emissions. This assessment is within the context of the UK’s Seventh Carbon Budget, which is a legally binding limit on greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) in the period when the third runway is proposed to start operating. 92 articles in 50 journals by 638 contributing authors

Physical science of climate change, effects

Anthropogenic forcing dominates relentless westward extension of the western North Pacific subtropical high, An et al., Atmospheric Research Open Access 10.1016/j.atmosres.2026.109301

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Transient overturning changes cause an upper-ocean nutrient decline in a warming climate, Nature Communications, 10.1038/s41467-024-52200-0 13 cites.

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Observations of climate change, effects

Changes in Compound Heat-Humidity over China: Insights from Homogenized Data, DENG et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access pdf 10.1016/j.accre.2026.08.017

Long-term temperature, oxygen and water clarity trends in Swiss lakes, Bärenbold et al., Earth system science data Open Access pdf 10.5194/essd-18-6527-2026

Recent intensification of extreme precipitation over East Antarctica driven by increases in greenhouse gases and stratospheric ozone, Chittella et al., cryosphere Open Access pdf 10.5194/tc-20-5005-2026

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Indian Ocean Acidification and Its Driving Mechanisms Over the Last Four Decades (1980–2019), Global Biogeochemical Cycles, 10.1029/2024gb008139 21 cites.

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Instrumentation & observational methods of climate change, effects

Advanced Visualization Techniques for Insight in Clouds and Climate Research, Sullivan et al., Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society Open Access pdf 10.1175/bams-d-25-0055.1

An AI-driven reconstruction of global surface temperature with emphasis on refining the Antarctic record, Ouyang et al., Earth system science data Open Access 10.5194/essd-18-6503-2026

Early warning signals for tipping points in complex climate systems, LIU et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2026.09.002

Shallow Antarctic blue ice shows photochemical influence on trapped greenhouse gases, Lee et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-026-03923-z

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
What is a heat wave: A survey and literature synthesis of heat wave definitions across the United States, PLOS Climate, 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000468 18 cites.

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Modeling, simulation & projection of climate change, effects

Downscaling and Trend Projection of Lightning Associated with Forest Lightning-Ignited Fires under Climate Change, Song et al., Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics 10.1016/j.jastp.2026.106967

Global cities under multiple climate hazards, Nogherotto et al., Urban Climate Open Access 10.1016/j.uclim.2026.103132

Revealing Enhanced Signals of Future Marine Heatwave Changes in the East/Japan Sea Through a High-Resolution Dynamical Downscaling Ensemble, Oh et al., Earth s Future Open Access pdf 10.1029/2025ef007760

The Source of Arctic Precipitation in HadGEM3-GC5, Ridley et al., Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres Open Access pdf 10.1029/2026jd046751

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Strong regional trends in extreme weather over the next two decades under high- and low-emissions pathways, Nature Geoscience, 10.1038/s41561-024-01511-4 52 cites.

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Advancement of climate & climate effects modeling, simulation & projection

Diagnosing CESM2 Biases in Northwest Indian Ocean Warming and Its Implications for India Summer Monsoon Precipitation, Chen et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1029/2026gl123060

Evaluating Deep Learning Models for Streamflow Prediction Under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 Climate Scenarios, Piri et al., Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics 10.1016/j.jastp.2026.106972

Global Kilometer-Scale Simulations with ARP-GEM2: Effect of Parameterized Convection and Calibration, Geoffroy & Saint-Martin, Journal of Climate pdf 10.1175/jcli-d-25-0650.1

Spurious Drifts in the ITCZ Location and Associated Atmospheric Circulation in Decadal Climate Predictions, Mahmood et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1029/2026gl124719

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Artificial intelligence for climate prediction of extremes: State of the art, challenges, and future perspectives, Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews Climate Change, 10.1002/wcc.914 113 cites.

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Cryosphere & climate change

Attribution of the Spread in Antarctic Sea Ice-Driven Water Mass Transformation in Coupled Climate Models, Chen et al., Journal of Geophysical Research Oceans Open Access pdf 10.1029/2026jc024388

Glaciers of Ecuador: a review of current scientific knowledge, Avila & Campos, Earth-Science Reviews Open Access 10.1016/j.earscirev.2026.105680

Permafrost Degradation Drives Shifts in Chemostasis and Stream Geochemistry in the McMurdo Dry Valleys, Antarctica, Wright et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1029/2026gl125327

Refreezing variability in the Greenland Ice Sheet firn zone and its response to extreme melt events, CHEN et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access pdf 10.1016/j.accre.2026.08.015

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:

Evolution of the Antarctic Ice Sheet Over the Next Three Centuries From an ISMIP6 Model Ensemble, Earth s Future, 10.1029/2024ef004561 73 cites.

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Sea level & climate change

An improvement to short term variability in Global Mean Sea Level reconstruction, Shaw et al., Ocean science Open Access pdf 10.5194/os-22-2673-2026

Paleoclimate & paleogeochemistry

Global and regional climate change impacted Paleogene mammal faunas in Central Asia, Benevento et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-026-77374-7

Paleogeographic controls on Phanerozoic weathering rates and implications for climate regulation, Graham et al., Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-026-77289-3

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Opposing Changes in Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall Variability Produced by Orbital and Anthropogenic Forcing, Geophysical Research Letters, 10.1029/2024gl109897 8 cites.

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Biology & climate change, related geochemistry

Aggravated forest fragmentation undermines productivity spatial stability and amplifies climate impact, Huang et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 10.1016/j.agrformet.2026.111455

An Integrated Oceanographic and Physiological Framework for Identifying Climate Refugia for Marine Invertebrates, Provost et al., Global Change Biology 10.1111/gcb.71091

Climate and Ecosystem Impacts of a Weakened Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) in Brazil, Komarov et al., Earth Interactions Open Access 10.1175/ei-d-25-0050.1

Ecosystem response of an anthropogenically impacted lagoon to induced climate-driven water stagnation: an enclosure experiment, Burini et al., Marine Environmental Research Open Access pdf 10.1016/j.marenvres.2026.108393

Habitat Selection and Intrapopulation Spatial Segregation in an Arctic Top Predator at the Southern Limit of Its Range, Ross et al., Global Change Biology Open Access pdf 10.1111/gcb.71024

Invertebrates at the Land-Sea Interface in a Climate Change World: Heatwaves, Floods, Fire and Ice, Byrne & Ross, Global Change Biology Open Access pdf 10.1111/gcb.71096

Mapping the Global Habitat Redistribution of Critically Endangered Commercial Fish Species Under Climate Change, Gong et al., Global Change Biology 10.1111/gcb.71077

Modeling climate adaptive habitat connectivity for conservation planning in Colombia, Song et al., Ecography Open Access 10.1002/ecog.08789

Modelling Climate-Resilient Habitats for Conservation and Restoration of Isoberlinia doka Craib and Stapf and Isoberlinia tomentosa (Harms) Craib and Stapf in Benin, Adjahossou et al., Climate Resilience and Sustainability Open Access pdf 10.1002/cli2.70062

Nonuniform resizing of marine life under climate change, Trindade-Santos et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Open Access 10.1073/pnas.2606099123

Parrotfish demonstrate little behavioural shift during marine heatwaves, Golanski et al., Biology Letters Open Access 10.1098/rsbl.2026.0337

Phenological fluctuations induce seasonal asymmetric warming in boreal forests, Yan et al., Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-026-77464-6

Plant dominated ecosystem respiration of alpine meadow in permafrost region under experimental warming, Qin et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2026.09.003

Predicted Global Redistribution of Pyrophilous Beetle Melanophila acuminata (Coleoptera: Buprestidae) Under Climate Change, Wang et al., Ecology and Evolution Open Access 10.1002/ece3.74317

Projected AMOC Weakening Controls Future Diatom Decline in the Subpolar North Atlantic Ocean, Doléac et al., Earth s Future Open Access pdf 10.1029/2025ef007992

Virulent Parasites Emerge in Hosts With Rising Temperatures, Hector et al., Global Change Biology Open Access 10.1111/gcb.71082

With Knowledge Comes Responsibility: Increasing Conservation Scientists’ Impact in a Time of Global Crises, Martin et al., Conservation Letters Open Access pdf 10.1111/con4.70076

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Global change and premature hatching of aquatic embryos, Global Change Biology, 10.1111/gcb.17488 22 cites.

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GHG sources & sinks, flux, related geochemistry

Atmospheric CH4 plateau sustained by NOx emission rise and southward shift, Zhu et al., Nature 10.1038/s41586-026-10983-w

C-PEAT’s Global Peatland Carbon Database (v.2025), Loisel et al., Earth system science data Open Access pdf 10.5194/essd-18-6485-2026

Coordinated satellite, aircraft, and ground-based observations of a large transient methane release, He et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Open Access pdf 10.1073/pnas.2603595123

Drivers of northern peatland CO2 fluxes revisited: interacting water level-temperature dependency, Behrens et al., Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-026-77456-6

Engineering carbon emissions induced by permafrost degradation and mitigation strategy: Insights from the Qinghai–Tibet Highway, LAN et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2026.09.005

Enhanced carbon loss in the Southern Ocean under mitigation scenarios, Lee et al., Science Advances Open Access 10.1126/sciadv.aee9228

Global ecosystem carbon losses from earthquakes, He et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-026-04012-x

Greenhouse Gas and Climate Effects of Global Wetland Restoration Under Future Warming, Wagner et al., Earth s Future Open Access pdf 10.1029/2026ef008632

Significant Decline in Carbon Storage at the Edges of Mangrove Forest, Zhao et al., Earth s Future Open Access pdf 10.1029/2026ef008723

Significant Reduction in Ethane Emissions in the Denver-Julesburg Basin From 2015 to 2021 From Oil and Natural Gas Operations, Ngulat et al., Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres Open Access pdf 10.1029/2025jd044690

Temporal Amplification of Microbial Necromass Contribution to Soil Organic Carbon Under Nutrient Addition, Zhang et al., Global Biogeochemical Cycles 10.1029/2026gb009455

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Global riverine land-to-ocean carbon export constrained by observations and multi-model assessment, Nature Geoscience, 10.1038/s41561-024-01524-z 93 cites.

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CO2 capture, sequestration science & engineering

Asymmetric Response of Land Precipitation Variability Under Carbon Dioxide Removal, Gan et al., Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres 10.1029/2026jd047086

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Enhancing electrochemical carbon dioxide capture with supercapacitors, Nature Communications, 10.1038/s41467-024-52219-3 61 cites.

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Decarbonization

Building a scalable climate coalition for heavy industry, Wolfram et al., Science 10.1126/science.aef7190

Copper supply chain decarbonization for the energy transition must maximize copper recovery, Cox et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-026-03977-z

Toward efficient green methanol from biomass and renewable power, Zhao et al., Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-026-77364-9

Towards a zero-waste city: carbon emissions and reduction potential from solid waste management in Wuhan, Tian et al., Figshare Open Access 10.6084/m9.figshare.33465965

Utilising urban energy structure as a carbon management strategy for carbon emissions mitigation and climate neutrality, Sun & Tang, Scientific Reports Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41598-026-68670-9

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Permeability partitioning through the brittle-to-ductile transition and its implications for supercritical geothermal reservoirs, Nature Communications, 10.1038/s41467-024-52092-0 28 cites.

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Black carbon

Atmospheric deposition, aquatic transformation and marine carbon sequestration potential of black carbon: A critical review, Wu et al., Marine Environmental Research 10.1016/j.marenvres.2026.108384

Increase in global warming potential of atmospheric black carbon since 1750, Shen et al., Nature Geoscience 10.1038/s41561-026-02085-z

Aerosols

Direct Radiative Impacts of Stratospheric Aerosols on the Tropical Troposphere: Clouds, Precipitation, and Circulation in Convection-Resolving and Global Simulations, McGraw & Polvani, Journal of Climate 10.1175/jcli-d-25-0688.1

Potential aerosol tradeoffs of vessel speed reduction for fresh ship plume composition and tracer coverage, Shi et al., npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Open Access 10.1038/s41612-026-01532-3

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Surface albedo regulates aerosol direct climate effect, Nature Communications, 10.1038/s41467-024-52255-z 27 cites.

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Climate change communications & cognition

Countering climate misinformation with large language models: Evidence from ChatGPT, Tsang & Wang, PLOS Climate Open Access pdf 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000930

Moralizing reproduction in a warming world: rethinking climate-reproductive concern beyond WEIRD contexts, Tu et al., Environmental Sociology 10.1080/23251042.2026.2729092

Unsupervised NLP for quantifying sentiment deviation and framing in global climate discourse, K et al., Frontiers in Climate Open Access pdf 10.3389/fclim.2026.1827024

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Tackling the academic air travel dependency. An analysis of the (in)consistency between academics’ travel behaviour and their attitudes, Global Environmental Change, 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2024.102908 27 cites.

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Agronomy, animal husbundry, food production & climate change

A biological carbon pump code of practice for high seas fisheries, Cavan et al., Nature Reviews Earth & Environment 10.1038/s43017-026-00825-8

Collaborative learning networks on climate change adaptation practices among smallholder farmers: A case study from Central Uganda, Kekirunga et al., Climate Risk Management Open Access pdf 10.1016/j.crm.2026.100879

Genetically engineered crop adoption support yields and cultivation under climate change, Dong et al., Nature Climate Change 10.1038/s41558-026-02737-3

Hail Risk and Cropland Exposure Changes in the United States, Bundy et al., Weather Climate and Society 10.1175/wcas-d-25-0160.1

Mapping the Global Habitat Redistribution of Critically Endangered Commercial Fish Species Under Climate Change, Gong et al., Global Change Biology 10.1111/gcb.71077

No significant long-term enhancement of sedimentary carbon burial by intensive Porphyra farming: Evidence from Haizhou Bay, China, Chen et al., Marine Environmental Research 10.1016/j.marenvres.2026.108396

Spatiotemporal evolution and influencing factors of the agricultural carbon footprint in the yellow river basin, Zhou & Pan, Frontiers in Environmental Science Open Access pdf 10.3389/fenvs.2026.1793645

The OsUVR8-OsNAC3-OsERF117 signaling module mediates metabolic acclimation and climate adaptation in rice, Liu et al., Science Advances Open Access 10.1126/sciadv.aef5945

Transitioning From Rice-Wheat to Diversified Rice-Based Rotations Enhances Rice Production and Mitigates Greenhouse Gas Emissions Across Asia, Wang et al., Earth s Future Open Access pdf 10.1029/2026ef008580

‘We always make it work’: How Swedish dairy farmers manage and prepare for an unknown future of extreme weather, Simonsson et al., Climate Risk Management Open Access pdf 10.1016/j.crm.2026.100881

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Climate change exacerbates the environmental impacts of agriculture, Science, 10.1126/science.adn3747 515 cites.

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Hydrology, hydrometeorology & climate change

Contrasting roles of climate change and land-use change on runoff dynamics in a semi-humid monsoon watershed of China, Afzal et al., Scientific Reports Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41598-026-67812-3

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Evaluation of precipitation extremes in ERA5 reanalysis driven regional climate simulations over the CORDEX-Australasia domain, Weather and Climate Extremes, 10.1016/j.wace.2024.100676 17 cites.

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Climate change economics
Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
The role of green financial sector initiatives in the low-carbon transition: A theory of change, Global Environmental Change, 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2024.102915 29 cites.

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Climate change mitigation public policy research

Benchmarking climate futures: the public authorization of climate pathways and its political afterlives, Park, Environmental Sociology 10.1080/23251042.2026.2729097

Crediting temporarily bound carbon reduces emissions and costs in integrated production of EU refineries, Bussmann et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-026-03891-4

Stringent climate policies and energy poverty: Evidence of spatial spillovers and challenges for a just transition, Bai & Huaccha, Energy Policy Open Access pdf 10.1016/j.enpol.2026.115590

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
The impact of electricity market reform on renewable energy production, Energy Policy, 10.1016/j.enpol.2024.114306 35 cites.

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Climate change adaptation & adaptation public policy research

Applying design thinking for innovative climate adaptation solutions: Building capacity for locally led adaptation, Ziervogel et al., Environmental Science & Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.envsci.2026.104481

Assessing Wildfire Hazard for Powerline Expansion Under the Changing Climates in Alberta, Canada, Zong et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2026gl124354

Climate vulnerability and the subnational distribution of adaptation funding, Alberola, Environmental Science & Policy 10.1016/j.envsci.2026.104488

Geospatial assessment of tropical islands vulnerability and impact under extreme cyclonic conditions, mitigation and management for climate-resilient planning, Raja et al., Urban Climate 10.1016/j.uclim.2026.103134

Limits and barriers to climate adaptation among Indigenous women: Insights from Vedda communities in Sri Lanka, Garbutt et al., Environmental Science & Policy 10.1016/j.envsci.2026.104478

Lost in Projection: Uncertainty is Misrepresented in Climate Risk and Vulnerability Assessments, Curran et al., Risk Analysis Open Access pdf 10.1111/risa.70331

Ten critical questions for scaling up floating developments, MacAfee et al., Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-026-77492-2

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
What is limiting how we imagine climate change adaptation?, Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability, 10.1016/j.cosust.2024.101476 43 cites.

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Climate change impacts on human health

Health impacts of climate change on children and adolescents: an umbrella review, Yahaya et al., BMC Public Health Open Access 10.1186/s12889-026-29270-4

Metabolic response and microbial assembly in the invader Ageratina adenophora with contrasting growth under local plant leaf and soil inoculants, Zhao et al., Plant and Soil 10.1007/s11104-026-09027-z

Mortality risks of seasonal temperature anomalies and the unrecognized risk of winter warmth: a nationwide case-time series, Ham et al., Scientific Reports Open Access 10.1038/s41598-026-71032-0

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Spatio-temporal characteristics of Heat stress over Nigeria using evaluated ERA5-HEAT reanalysis data, Weather and Climate Extremes, 10.1016/j.wace.2024.100704 24 cites.

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Climate change & geopolitics

Climate and digital transitions in a changing global order: resource dependencies, connectivity and uneven development, Meraj et al., Climate and Development 10.1080/17565529.2026.2726446

Climate change impacts on human culture

Climate extremes are associated with crime dynamics in China, Lin et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-026-03948-4

Community-based archaeology reinforces Indigenous cultural resilience to climate change in Alaska, Hillerdal, Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-026-03970-6

Other

Investigation of the failure mechanism and reinforcement control effect of cut slopes under climate change, Meng, Frontiers in Earth Science Open Access pdf 10.3389/feart.2026.1896698

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
The 2023 Atlantic Hurricane Season: An Above-Normal Season despite Strong El Niño Conditions, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 10.1175/bams-d-23-0305.1 15 cites.

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Informed opinion, nudges & major initiatives

The Anthropocene debate, Chernilo, European Journal of Social Theory 10.1177/1368431016651874

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Disaster effects of climate change in High Mountain Asia: State of art and scientific challenges, Advances in Climate Change Research, 10.1016/j.accre.2024.06.003 75 cites.

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Articles/Reports from Agencies and Non-Governmental Organizations Addressing Aspects of Climate Change

2025 Electricity ATB Technologies and Data Overview, National Renewable Energy Lab

The 2025 Electricity Annual Technology Baseline (ATB) provides consistent, freely available, technology-specific cost and performance parameters across a range of research and development (R&D) advancement scenarios, resource characteristics, and sites for electricity-generating technologies, both at present and with projections through 2060. Two sets of financial assumptions are available: The With Tax Credits Case includes some effects of tax credits enacted as of July 2025, and the Without Tax Credits Case (shown by default in the figures) does not. The performance parameters in the Electricity ATB include Capital expenditures (CAPEX), Operations and maintenance (O&M) expenditures, and Capacity factors.

Heat Pump Rates in Rhode Island, Zuo et al., Conservation Law Foundation, Green Energy Consumers Alliance, Acadia Center, and Environmental Defense Fund

The authors analyze the electric bills of heat pump customers served by Rhode Island Energy (RIE). Under today’s rates, most gas-heated homes would pay more after switching to heat pumps. Only 21% of natural gas-heated households would save on their annual energy bills after installing a heat pump — not because heat pumps are inherently expensive to run, but because electricity bills are inflated by RIE's outdated delivery rates. The grid can handle the additional winter load. RIE should create a dedicated delivery rate class for heat pump customers that reflects what these customers actually cost the system — rather than letting default volumetric rates collect far more than the cost of serving them.

A Livable Future: Protecting Jobs and Growth from Extreme Heat in South Asia's Cities, Jain et al., International Bank for Reconstruction and Development, The World Bank Group

South Asia must absorb roughly 280 million new working-age people by 2050, most of them in cities, at a time when its labor markets already struggle to keep pace. Extreme heat is widening that shortfall. It already subtracts the equivalent of 31 million full-time jobs a year across the region and erodes the earnings of those who keep working. The losses concentrate in the cities where the new workforce must find employment, and they fall hardest on the households least able to absorb them. Heat reduces productivity in existing work, discourages the investment that will create new jobs, and shifts labor demand towards cooling and heat-resilient industries. Managing it has become integral to the region’s growth and jobs agenda, and governments can begin now, through institutions and budgets already in place. The authors set out how: heat and South Asia’s jobs challenge; the costs of inaction are large and growing; what needs to happen: three pillars, 15 interventions; what each decision-maker can do now; and the decade ahead.

Heathrow Airport expansion risks for the Climate Change Act, Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Manchester

The authors examine whether a third runway at Heathrow Airport is compatible with the UK’s domestic and international legal climate change obligations, and shows how growing airport capacity before climate technologies succeed will break the UK’s carbon budget. Through an analysis of future UK aviation scenarios and reviewing the status and outlook for key technology options, the authors findings show that Heathrow expansion cannot reasonably be considered consistent with UK Government climate targets. The authors examine three questions including the level of demand implied by an expanded Heathrow Airport; whether sustainable aviation fuels (SAF) can mitigate emissions arising from any net additional demand; and if greenhouse gas removal (GGR) expansion can address remaining additional residual emissions. This assessment is within the context of the UK’s Seventh Carbon Budget, which is a legally binding limit on greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) in the period when the third runway is proposed to start operating.

The Colorado River Water Supply Crisis in a Few Graphs: Part 2, Agricultural Water Use in the Lower Basin, Schmidt et al., Getches-Wilkinson Center, University of Colorado Law School

Reductions in Lower Basin water use during the last four years, including forecast use in 2026, are similar to the initial targets for Lower Basin shortages described in the Final Environmental Impact Statement for Post-2026 Operational Guidelines and Strategies for Lake Powell and Lake Mead (FEIS) and the accompanying Record of Decision (ROD). Lower Basin consumptive use in 2023, 2024, and 2025, and forecast for 2026 has been the smallest for the entire 2010-2026 period. These four years of smallest use are between 1.4 and 1.7 million acre feet/year (maf/yr) less than the 7.50 maf/yr amount generally recognized as the Lower Basin’s mainstem allocation. Reductions in Lower Basin use have been achieved by large reductions implemented by Central Arizona Project (CAP) contractors and subcontractors, the Imperial Irrigation District (IID), and non-CAP water users in Arizona. The reductions in use in the IID have been in summer water use and have not affected consumptive use in winter when garden crops, such as lettuce, onions, carrots, and broccoli, are grown.

Employing Domain-Informed AI for Energy Planning and Decarbonization under Uncertainty, Obringer et al., Institute for Water, Environment and Health, United Nations University

Renewable energy is a critical part of climate change mitigation but is also more susceptible to adverse climate conditions than fossil fuel-based energy generation. The electricity grid is further stressed by growing demand and the expansion of power-intensive end-uses, e.g., data centers and EVs, whose growth trajectory already exceeds the anticipated capacity expansion needs. Current long-term planning of electric grid upgrades and expansion generally relies on historical weather and climate trends that are unlikely to remain stable in the coming decades. In the past, the complexity of large-scale climate downscaling has inhibited deeper integration of climate projections and energy planning models. Failing to integrate climate projections exposes public infrastructure to severe physical and fiscal risk. Domain-informed AI can be used as a complement to existing tools to provide forward-looking information on the effects of climate change on renewable energy integration, informing decarbonization policies. Unregulated AI data centers consume massive amounts of electricity, directly straining the grid. Policymakers should mandate that this computational infrastructure of AI operates primarily on verifiable renewable energy.

Opposition to Renewable Energy Facilities in the United States: September 2026 Edition, Romany Webb and Ivonne Norman, Sabin Center for Climate Change Law, Columbia University

The authors document legal obstacles and challenges to renewable energy siting at the state- and local-levels in the United States. In particular, the the authors focus on: (a) state laws and local ordinances that impede the siting of utility-scale solar, wind, battery storage, and related transmission projects, referred to as “state and local restrictions”; and (b) instances of organized opposition to individual projects, referred to as “contested projects”.

Peat-Emit. Supporting developing economies to estimate and report greenhouse gas emissions from organic soils, Freeman et al., Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations

Accurate estimates of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from organic soils are essential for effective climate reporting and mitigation, yet developing countries often lack region-specific data to support reliable estimates. The authors address that gap by reviewing and synthesizing the latest available evidence on emissions from organic soils to develop updated greenhouse gas emission factors (EFs) tailored to developing economies. The authors focus on terrestrial emissions of carbon dioxide (CO?), methane (CH?), and nitrous oxide (N?O), and also evaluate emissions from tropical peatland fires, including fuel consumption and combustion completeness. Developing regions included are East and Southeast Asia, Latin America and the Caribbean, and Africa, where existing emission factors have been limited or insufficiently representative. Although aquatic emission pathways were reviewed, they were not updated because new robust data is still lacking. These updated factors will improve the accuracy of national greenhouse gas inventories and support countries in meeting their reporting obligations and advancing climate mitigation efforts under international frameworks.

How Climate Resilient Are the World’s Largest Cities?, AlphaGeo

Geography is not destiny. Cities with near-identical physical risk scores diverge by as much as 33 resilience-adjusted risk (RAJ) points depending on the adaptation measures in place — demonstrating that risk is not fixed, and that resilience is a function of policy and investment, not geography alone. South Asian megacities face a compounding crisis. Ahmedabad (RAJ 41), Hyderabad Pakistan (41), Multan (38), Dhaka (36), Kolkata (35), and Lahore (35) combine extreme physical exposure with only moderate adaptation performance. European, African, and Latin American capitals outperform. Chicago, Addis Ababa, Melbourne, Barcelona, Buenos Aires, Paris, and Nairobi all score below 14 on the RAJ scale, making them among the most resilient major cities globally. Chinese megacities are closing the gap. Beijing (50%), Tianjin (49%), Shenzhen (49%), and Shanghai (46%) lead globally on adaptation efficiency — consistently converting high physical exposure into substantially lower residual risk. Mispriced risk is concentrated in South Asia. South Asia accounts for the majority of cities where residual RAJ scores remain high and adaptation rates remain comparatively low relative to the scale of physical exposure.

WMO Air Quality and Climate Bulleting, World Meteorological Organization

The authors highlight the need for improved atmospheric observations of air pollutants such as fine particulate matter, and ground-level ozone, as well as aerosol like black carbon and microplastics, which are not sufficiently monitored even though they are widespread and are potentially harmful to ecosystems. They stress the importance of complementary and coordinated policies on air quality and climate because they cannot be dealt with in isolation.

Weathering Extremes: A Toolkit for Information Resilience Amid Disaster, Jennie King, Council on Strategic Risks

Extreme weather events are fueling dangerous mis- and disinformation in communities across the United States. These crises can happen anywhere, as hyper-local events are weaponized by domestic or transnational actors. The resulting chaos endangers lives and hinders local responses during a crisis, and has corrosive effects on policymaking and community resilience in the long term. It also threatens to undermine national security by disrupting critical infrastructure, empowering extremists and foreign adversaries, and paralyzing decision-making. The toolkit positions information resilience as a key element of disaster preparedness, response, and recovery. It provides a model that combines upstream efforts to build readiness and trust architecture, with frameworks to triage and counter information threats when a crisis strikes. It is designed primarily for emergency managers, resilience officers, and public information officers. In tandem, it details how a more expansive set of actors is needed to realize and embed outcomes, working across government at the state, local, and tribal levels.

Assessing overcapacity risk in India’s solar PV manufacturing market, Sharma et al., The Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis

India’s solar PV module manufacturing capacity reached approximately 233 gigawatts (GW) by June 2026, placing it among the world’s largest module manufacturing bases. However, this capacity is heavily concentrated in modules, at nearly 7x cell capacity and 116x ingot-wafer capacity, signaling a structural gap in upstream manufacturing. India’s module manufacturing base is operating at 35–40% utilization, well below the 50–65% level required for sustainable operations. With manufacturing capacity already exceeding domestic demand, further capacity additions risk widening the supply-demand gap in modules. Data centers, green hydrogen, and export markets could be the largest sources of incremental module demand by 2030, offering 17–22GW of annual additional opportunity beyond conventional solar deployment. Their ability to scale up will depend on supportive policy, project execution, and evolving procurement dynamics. Vertically integrated manufacturers with scale and technology depth are positioned to define the industry’s next growth phase. Small-scale assemblers, legacy Passive Emitter and Rear Cell (PERC)-based lines, and manufacturers without an upstream integration roadmap will be at risk of consolidation, acquisitions, or exit.

Built for backup, contracted to run: China’s coal support system risks crowding out clean power, Qi Qin and Christine Shearer, Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air

New coal power plants entering operation in China reached the highest first-half year level since 2016, with 10 GW entering operation for every 1 GW retired, despite a policy shift towards tighter control of new project approvals. China commissioned 30 GW of new coal power, up 43% from last year, while retiring only 2.7 GW. Another 25.4 GW started construction. Coal power generation rebounded 3.4% year-on-year in H1 2026, reversing the 2025 decline. The rapid expansion of coal power capacity led to worsening oversupply, reflected both in the increase of wasted wind and solar generation and in falling use of coal power plants. The rebound was not evidence of a broad return to coal following LNG shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. China’s combined domestic coal production and imports in fact fell by 1.4% year-on-year in H1 2026, rather than expanding in response to the external energy shock. Growth in clean energy supply and electrification helped offset the fall in oil supply and limit increases in fossil fuel consumption.

Challenges related to sea level rise and ways and approaches to address it : report of the Secretary-General, General Assembly of the United Nations

The authors provide an assessment of the current context of sea level rise, key challenges and ongoing efforts by Member States and the United Nations system to address such challenges. The author provide forward-looking recommendations recognizing the global multidimensional effects of sea level rise and their implications for human rights and sustainable development. The authors call for strengthened international cooperation to ensure equitable, just and sustainable solutions that uphold the rights of affected States and their populations, through international governance frameworks and action that safeguard dignity, stability and opportunities for those affected and future generations.

Hidden assets: The economic and health case for climate and clean air action, Climate and Clean Air Coalition, United Nations Environment Programme

The authors provide the most complete assessment to date of the benefits and costs of integrated climate and clean air action, complemented by an empirically grounded analysis of how these benefits can be delivered quickly enough to avoid premature deaths and disease and improve the lives of many of the world’s most vulnerable people.

EV Transition Check 2026: Measuring progress toward zero emissions for road transport in Europe, Marie Rajon Bernard and Alexander Plummer, International Council on Clean Transportation

The authors assess the progress of Europe’s road transport toward zero emissions. This second edition widens the scope to include trucks and buses in addition to passenger cars. The authors provide a broad range of data and analysis for a comprehensive snapshot of the current status of the transition to battery electric vehicles (BEV). In terms of the affordability and accessibility of BEVs, the number of passenger car BEV models on offer in Europe’s largest automotive market, Germany, has quadrupled between 2020 and 2025 to about 160, and affordable options, defined as BEVs priced below €30,000, have grown to about 35. BEVs in the three largest car segments (medium, upper-medium, and luxury) have already reached upfront cost parity with comparable internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEVs). Although the median BEV sales price has increased in recent years, so has the electric range by approximately 30% on average in the past 5 years. Factoring in improvements in performance as well as inflation, BEV prices have decreased by about 18% over the past 5 years, spurred primarily by a decrease in global battery prices, which, adjusted for inflation, have fallen by about 35% in the past 5 years. The delta between battery cost reductions and BEV sale prices indicates further potential for BEV price reductions in the upcoming years. About New Research

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Does hosting wind turbines provide farmers with additional income?

Wind projects provide farmers with substantial economic benefits while allowing most land to remain in agricultural use.

The National Renewable Energy Laboratory estimates about 98% of land within a typical wind project remains available for farming, grazing, or other uses.

Meanwhile, farmers who host turbines can receive long-term lease payments that provide additional income and financial stability. One study found that farmers with turbines invested about twice as much in their farms, while 80% had plans for who would take over or inherit the farm, compared with 62% of farmers without turbines.

Compared with the small amount of farmland used by turbines, unmitigated climate change poses broader risks to agriculture through heat, drought, shifting pests, and reduced crop yields.

Go to full rebuttal on Skeptical Science or to the fact brief on Gigafact

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Sources

NREL Examining Supply-Side Options to Achieve 100% Clean Electricity by 2035

Handbook of Sustainability and Social Science Research Wind Energy and Rural Community Sustainability

Center for Rural Affairs Navigating Land Leases for Wind and Solar

IPCC Special Report on Climate Change and Land: Chapter 5

Columbia Law School Sabin Center for Climate Change Law Rebutting 33 False Claims About Solar, Wind, and Electric Vehicles

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This is a re-post from The Climate Brink by Andrew Dessler

This is the third and last in our series discussing the use of unadjusted data and how it overstates the warmth of the 1930s over the U.S. See part one and part two for more.

A hall of fame for bad climate plots would definitely include this one:

The plot covers the continental U.S., and it dramatically shows that temperatures in the 1930s were more extreme than those of the present period. The metric plotted, the heat wave index, is constructed as a station?average count of qualifying 4?day warm spells (mean temperature exceeds a local one?in?ten?year threshold) in each year, so higher values mean that heat waves were more frequent in that year.

It was originally published in 1999 and has gone through several iterations, with the one above from an EPA website in 2021.

Don’t take this as criticism of the original paper — it was published in 1999, after all. However, the plot has hung around long past its expiration date and has since become a staple of climate denial. I think it’s time to reconsider what the plot actually tells us.

But is it right?

After reading our previous posts on the heat of the 1930s, you probably already know the answer: this plot is wrong in important ways.

The plot above is constructed from raw, unadjusted station data, which contain significant biases both in the individual station records and in the geographic distribution of the stations.

As we discussed in our previous posts, we can adjust for those biases. Here are the plots with biases removed:

In these plots, I’m using the adjusted and area-weighted GHCN-daily data (described in this post) and the daily Berkeley Earth land data (used in this post).

Both plots show something different than the raw, unadjusted data. The GHCN-daily data show that the most extreme years were 1936, 2023, 1934, 1931, and 2011. In the Berkeley Earth dataset, the most extreme years were 2023, 2011, 1936, 2020, and 1931.

Thus, once you account for biases in the data, you cannot conclude that temperatures during the 1930s over the continental U.S. were more extreme than those of recent years.

Rather, the only fair conclusion is that the last few years have been about as extreme as the hottest years of the 1930s over the continental U.S.

The 1930s were hot, but not because of global warming

Despite this ambiguous answer, we can still learn something from the plot.

First, as we’ve pointed out many times, the heat of the 1930s was regional — it was concentrated in the middle of the U.S. That’s different from today, when extreme temperatures are a global phenomenon.

We understand why this small part of the U.S. was so hot in the 1930s. It was normal climate variability combined with human activities. The relevant human activity was not fossil-fuel combustion but bad farming practices that contributed to the Dust Bowl.

During the early 20th century, aggressive plowing and the replacement of native grasses left Great Plains soils exposed. When drought conditions developed, those degraded soils dried out quickly, reducing evaporation and soil moisture and reinforcing the heat.

This feedback between drought and land degradation amplified temperatures over the U.S. Midwest and helped create the extraordinary heat of the Dust Bowl era seen in the plots above.

A picture is worth 1,000 words, so here’s what Dalhart, Texas looked like in 1938:

Abandoned farm with windmill and farm equipment. Dalhart, Texas. June 1938. Credits: Dorothea Lange; The Library of Congress, Prints & Photographs Division. Source.

Here’s what Dalhart, Texas looks like today from space:

Dalhart, Texas in 2016. Google Earth.

Those circles are the signature of center-pivot irrigation. Irrigation cools the surface, and the expansion of agriculture and irrigation in the central U.S. in the middle of the 20th century played a key role in why heatwaves were low in the middle of the 20th century:

the corrected figure: same data as plotted above, but smoothed with a 10-year centered average

Starting in the 1970s, we see heatwaves trending upward. Unlike the heat of the Dust Bowl in the 1930s, this post-1970 increase is global. This is climate change making heatwaves more extreme.

Conclusions

1. The extreme heat of the 1930s covered a very small part of the planet, the U.S. Midwest. Focusing on just that region is a classic case of cherry-picking.

2. The heat of the 1930s was due to human activity in the form of bad agricultural practices combined with natural variability.

3. Since the 1970s, heatwaves have become more frequent. This differs from the Dust Bowl because it is a global signal, occurring essentially everywhere. This is almost certainly due to greenhouse gas emissions from human activities.

Thus, if you see someone trying to downplay today’s extreme heat by claiming that ‘the 1930s were hotter,’ it’s a scam. Tag it with #1930sScam, hit the share button below, and share the link and the corrected figure.Code to reproduce the figures is here.

Other stuff

My colleague, Prof. Adam Sobel, has a nice post on his substack Deep Convection about km-scale modeling and the state of U.S. climate modeling. You should read it.

 

A listing of 28 news and opinion articles we found interesting and shared on social media during the past week: Sun, August 30, 2026 thru Sat, September 5, 2026. Stories we promoted this week, by category:

Climate Change Impacts (6 articles)

• When a mountain falls: How ice and rock triggered Nepal`s catastrophic flood - and why climate change is raising the risks The Conversation, Umesh Haritashya, Aug 29, 2026.
• Climate crisis pushes French winemakers to bet on warmer future in Brittany and Normandy An important part of the French economy is chased north by climate change but successful adapatation is not a certainty. France 24, France 24 staff, Aug 31, 2026.
• Coral Reefs Are Running Out of Time to Recover, Research Finds Rising sea temperatures mean reefs don’t have enough time to bounce back between intense heat waves, a new report warns. New York Times, Quinn Glabicki, Aug 31, 2026.
• Nepal`s glacial collapse foreshadowed a future of climate disaster | Michael Mann The deluge capped a summer of extreme climate events, from deadly heatwaves to wildfires. We must take action now The Guardian, Michael Mann, Sep 01, 2026.
• UN finally admits global warming will shoot past 1.5 ºC climate limit According to a report released today by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), the best the planet can hope for on its current emissions trajectory is warming of about 1.8 ºC above pre-industrial levels this century. Nature, James Dinneen, Sept 2 2026.
• Canadians should prepare for a 5 C hotter future, report warns The second edition of Canada's Changing Climate Report, a synthesis of the science on the impact of a warming planet on Canadians, confirms with greater confidence that burning fossil fuels, or what the report calls "human activities," are responsible for climate change. CBC Canada News, David Thurton, Sep 04, 2026.

Climate Science and Research (6 articles)

• How the greenhouse effect was discovered A video about the first paper detailing the greenhouse effect and examining the role of varying levels of carbon dioxide was released back in 1896. Youtube, Simon Clark, Aug 29, 2026.
• As super El Nino strengthens, study suggests that climate change is intensifying El Ninos Phys.org, Seth Borenstein, Aug 30, 2026.
• Forests didn't fare well during an ancient global warming event, offering a 'cautionary' tale about today's climate change Smithsonian Magazine, Sarah Hashemi, Aug 30, 2026.
• Explainer: The CMIP7 emissions scenarios - and how they explore future climate change Every six to seven years, climate modelling groups around the world run a coordinated set of simulations that explore how the climate could change in the future. Carbon Brief, Zeke Hausfather, Aug 31, 2026.
• EXPERT REACTION: Quick action needed as the world is set to get hotter than we hoped Rapid expert reaction to the UN's belated acknowledgement of committed overshoot of the previously agreed acceptable 1.5°C global warming threshold. Australian Science Media (scimex), Australian Science Media Centre staff, Sept 2, 2026.
• Skeptical Science New Research for Week #36 2026 Highlighted articles in our latest weekly climate research scan focus on various forms of reality-denial, purposefully for profit or as unconscious obedience to political ideology. Skeptical Science, Doug Bostrom & Marc Kodack, Sep 03, 2026.

Public Misunderstandings about Climate Solutions (4 articles)

• Rebutting 38 False Claims About Solar, Wind, Electric Vehicles, and Battery Storage In this report, the Sabin Center identifies and examines 38 of the most pervasive false claims about solar energy, wind energy, and electric vehicles, with the aim of promoting a more informed discussion about energy modernization Sabin Center for Climate Change Law, Andrew Kieffer, Sep 02, 2026.
• Energy In, Motion Out EVs waste miles less energy than their fossil-fuelled counterparts. Climate Trunk, John Lang, Sep 02, 2026.
• How to respond to disinformation about clean energy, at scale David Roberts interviews Leah Qusba about scalable methods for leveling the playing field when countering organized energy modernization disinformation campaigns. Volts, David Roberts, Sep 02, 2026.
• Widespread Local Opposition, Often Driven by Misinformation, Continues to Hamper Renewable Energy Development Opposition frequently stems from, and/or is heightened by, mis- and dis-information about renewable energy development which is often spread by the fossil fuel industry and its supporters. Climate Law Blog, Ivonne Norman, Andrew Kieffer and Romany Webb, Sep 03, 2026.

Climate Education and Communication (3 articles)

• The Earth is sizzling, but climate isn't a hot topic for Democrats in this year's campaigns Climate change has become a less prominent election-year issue for Democrats as voters say concerns such as affordability are more pressing ABC News, Nicholas Riccardi, Jennifer McDermott, Leah Willinghanm, Aug 29, 2026.
• Inside the passage of America`s biggest climate law In a new memoir, author Leah Stokes takes readers behind the scenes of U.S. democracy – and shows how people can still have an outsize impact by working together. Yale Climate Connections, Michael Svoboda, Sep 02, 2026.
• Who decides what climate change caused? Critical analysis of climate change attribution in press coverage of disasters finds generally good results, advises guarding credibility without underplaying the role climate change is playing in amplifying havoc. Atmos, Miranda Green, Sep 03, 2026.

Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation (2 articles)

• Vycarb Successfully Stores Low-Purity CO2 In Seawater Some fairly easy chemistry not only can handle impurecombustion gas streams but also offers a side-benefit for at least somewhat offsetting ocean acidification. CleanTechnica, Larry Evans, Aug 29, 2026.
• Guest post: Why tough methane cuts are crucial for keeping warming `well-below` 2C A new study highlights that, to limit peak warming to well-below 2C, net-zero CO2 targets must be complemented by stringent methane emissions cuts. Carbon Brief, Konstantin Weber, Prof Reto Knutti, Dr Cyril Brunner, Sep 01, 2026.

Public Misunderstandings about Climate Science (2 articles)

• Koonin`s Temperature of the LOL Stratosphere Longest-running climate blog does a forensic deconstruction of a ''climate skeptic'' claim, presented as part of the US Department of Energy's ''Climate Working Group'' misinformation workshopping. RealClimate, RealClimate Group, Aug 31, 2026.
• How climate denialism finds its way to the US 's highest office The Guardian on Youtube, Dharna Noor, Sep 3, 2026.

Climate Policy and Politics (2 articles)

• Heathrow expansion would make UK `overshoot` climate targets, report suggests New modelling says UK aviation industry is already forecast to exceed limits in the seventh carbon budget, even before third runway is built The Standard News, Tom Place, Sep 02, 2026.
• Oil lobby tanking climate Superfund bills in Oregon, 11 states despite public support, study finds Brown University researchers found that a small amount of testimony from fossil fuel lobbyists opposing polluter pay laws has had greater power than massive public support. Oregon Capital Chronicle, Alex Baumhart, Sept 3, 2026.

Miscellaneous (2 articles)

• 2026 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #35 A listing of 29 news and opinion articles we found interesting and shared on social media during the past week: Sun, August 23, 2026 thru Sat, August 29, 2026. Skeptical Science, Bärbel Winkler & Doug Bostrom, Aug 30, 2026.
• Readers reply: If all car tyres were filled with CO2, would this cut atmospheric carbon significantly? Newspaper readers answer an intriguing question; one reader goes through the numbers quantifying correct intuition. The Guardian, Guardian Staff, Aug 31, 2026.

Climate Law and Justice (1 article)

• Science, Attribution Studies, & Identifying Climate Criminals CleanTechnica, Steve Hanley, Aug 31, 2026.

If you happen upon high quality climate-science and/or climate-myth busting articles from reliable sources while surfing the web, please feel free to submit them via this Google form so that we may share them widely. Thanks!

Open access notables

Misrepresentation of Human Climate Fingerprint in DOE Report, Santer et al., Earth s Future

A July 2025 report from the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) made the key claim that the stratosphere has warmed since 2000, contrary to model projections and inconsistent with the expected anthropogenic fingerprint. The DOE report provided no references or data to support this claim. Its basis appears to be an unpublished figure comparing simulated and observed tropical trends in the temperature of the lower stratosphere (TLS), a layer extending from roughly 15 to 20 km above Earth's surface. The observed tropical TLS trends shown in the unpublished DOE figure are incorrect. When the correct observational data sets are used, model tropical TLS trends are consistent with satellite observations, and a model-predicted anthropogenic fingerprint is identifiable with high confidence in observed latitude-altitude profiles of tropical temperature change. An earlier rebuttal of the DOE “no human fingerprint” claim considered global-mean temperature changes only and did not perform a pattern-based fingerprint study. Unless corrected or retracted, the DOE report will continue to misinform policymakers and the public about the reality of human effects on climate.

Climate disinformation and moral distortion, Hopster & Martini, Environmental Politics

Disinformation is commonly understood as the distortion, omission or framing of facts, in the interest of deceiving. But does disinformation merely stem from an untruthful representation of facts, or can it also involve a distortion of morals? This question is not easily answered: while factual information can be untruthfully represented, it is less straightforward what ‘moral distortion’ might involve. In this paper we investigate the nature of moral distortion, by scrutinizing two case-studies from climate discourse. We argue that moral distortion involves the selective representation of morally relevant facts, which leaves an audience with a biased appreciation of an issue, even though the sender of information positions themselves as a trustworthy partner in public inquiry. We clarify how moral distortion relates to ‘moral corruption’, ‘greenwashing’, and other types of environmental disinformation, and address the objection that the cultural relativity of moral claims shields them from criticism.

[Comment] The imperative to counter fossil fuel industry disinformation for public health, Narayan et al., The Lancet Planetary Health

Despite claims of being climate solution leaders, fossil fuel companies continue to spend billions on lobbying and disinformation to delay meaningful climate action. The medical and public health community is uniquely positioned at the forefront of the battle against fossil fuel disinformation, and their role has never been more crucial. As some of the most trusted voices in society, health professionals hold a powerful influence over public opinion and policy, making them essential advocates for truth and health. However, the growing tide of fossil fuel industry disinformation, aimed at confusing the public, deflecting responsibility, and delaying action, threatens to erode the foundation of this trust and the ability of the health community to advocate on climate-related health threats. Therefore, it is imperative for health professionals to take a proactive, united stand in countering this influence.

When beliefs meet technology: conservatism, climate denialism, and support for solar geoengineering, Lee et al., Environmental Politics

Solar geoengineering is an object of deep political contestation. Public responses to solar geoengineering technologies cannot be as easily explained by political ideology alone. Hypothesizing that climate denialism mediates ideology’s influence on public support for solar geoengineering, we ask: (1) What is the relationship between political conservatism and support for solar geoengineering, and does it differ by country and technology? (2) Is this relationship mediated by climate denialism? We answer these questions using mediation analyses of public attitudes toward three climate intervention technologies across thirteen countries. Our findings show that conservatives are generally less supportive of solar geoengineering, and this opposition is largely rooted in climate denialism with variation across technologies. Once denialism is controlled for, conservatism is associated with greater support for certain technologies in some countries but not others. Therefore, the relationship between conservatism and climate intervention support does not reflect a single, stable ideological association.

 From this week's government/NGO section:

Summary Report: Second Conference on Attribution Science and Climate Law, Jessica Wentz, Columbia Law School, Sabin Center for Climate Change Law

A summary report for the Second Conference on Attribution Science and Climate Law, held at Columbia University on June 10–11, 2026. The event brought together physical scientists, legal scholars, public health researchers, economists, and policy experts to discuss key developments in climate change attribution science and its evolving role in climate law and governance. The author provides an overview of key themes and topics covered at the conference, as well as a detailed summary of the presentations and panel discussions. Video recordings of the event can also be accessed from the event website and the Sabin Center Youtube channel. Rapid advances in attribution research—including storyline approaches, integrated impact modeling, and end-to-end attribution—are strengthening the scientific foundation for linking GHG emissions, climate change, and specific harms. Panelists highlighted the utility of these methods not only as evidentiary support in climate litigation and corporate accountability claims, but also as vital tools for informing government decision-making, adaptation planning, disaster risk reduction, and international loss and damage frameworks. Discussions also confronted ongoing challenges, including political pressures on climate science, the necessity of clear communication regarding scientific uncertainties, and the importance of addressing structural inequalities alongside physical hazards.

Climate Double Agents: The Congressional lobbyists pushing fossil fuels and solutions to the climate crisis, F Minus

The authors reviewed Congressional lobbyist disclosures of 228 lobbying firms. They found fossil fuel lobbyists simultaneously lobbying on almost every aspect of the climate crisis, from climate mitigation to disaster relief to wildlife conservation. The most conflicted firm on the issue of climate mitigation funding for local governments was Greenberg Traurig, which lobbied for the American Petroleum Institute (API) and ConocoPhillips in Congress, the Western States Petroleum Association in California, and the American Fuel & Petrochemical Manufactures (AFPM) in New York, all of which have opposed the creation of climate superfunds. Greenberg Traurig also lobbied on shoreline protection and Everglades restoration for Miami-Dade County and lobbied for the City of Rochester and Westchester County in New York, both of which would lose tens of millions in future climate mitigation funds if the firm’s clients API and AFPM succeed in passing a Congressional bill invalidating state Climate Superfunds, including New York’s. 156 articles in 71 journals by 1074 contributing authors

Physical science of climate change, effects

Centennial AMOC Variability of North Atlantic–Arctic Origin: Mechanism and Future State, Yang, International Journal of Climatology 10.1002/joc.70480

Climate extremes drive increased fire nitrogen release in boreal forest, Liu et al., Atmospheric Environment 10.1016/j.atmosenv.2026.122330

Detectability of Forced ENSO Changes Under Global Warming: Insights From the Recharge Oscillator, Han et al., arXiv (Cornell University) Open Access 10.48550/arxiv.2608.26767

Global warming enhances salinity gradient energy potential through hydroclimatic change, Xu et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-026-04010-z

Hydrographic variability associated with enhanced warming in the eastern Antarctic region during the austral summer, Krishnan et al., Polar Science 10.1016/j.polar.2026.101390

Limiting warming by CO2 and methane mitigation in an expanded scenario space, Weber et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-026-03832-1

Maritime Continent freshening intensifies the observed La Niña-like warming, Cao et al., npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41612-026-01523-4

Sea surface warming suppresses primary sea spray aerosol number production, Leibensperger et al., Atmospheric chemistry and physics Open Access 10.5194/acp-26-12211-2026

When the Mountains Stop Warming the Plains: Anomalous Winter and Spring Cooling in Southeastern Alberta Linked to Reduced Chinook Activity, Yackel et al., ATMOSPHERE-OCEAN 10.1080/07055900.2026.2716651

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Walker circulation strengthening driven by sea surface temperature changes outside the tropics, Nature Geoscience, 10.1038/s41561-024-01510-5 14 cites.

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Observations of climate change, effects

Changes in Arctic and Antarctic sea-ice properties and processes, Webster et al., Nature Reviews Earth & Environment 10.1038/s43017-026-00816-9

Long-term monitoring of active layer thickness confirms global permafrost degradation, Streletskiy et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-026-03824-1

Marine Heatwave Trends in Eastern North America Waters Using a High-Resolution (5-km) SST Dataset, Stone & Milrad, International Journal of Climatology 10.1002/joc.70474

Misrepresentation of Human Climate Fingerprint in DOE Report, Santer et al., Earth s Future Open Access pdf 10.1029/2026ef008831

Narwhals document atlantification of East Greenland, Heide-Jørgensen et al., Science Advances Open Access 10.1126/sciadv.adr1424

Soil moisture–atmosphere coupling intensifies wildfires in Siberia in 2021, Xiao et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 10.1016/j.agrformet.2026.111437

Trends in Heat Stress During Heat Waves Across Europe (1979–2023), Zhang et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2026gl124082

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Rock glaciers across the United States predominantly accelerate coincident with rise in air temperatures, Nature Communications, 10.1038/s41467-024-52093-z 29 cites.

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Instrumentation & observational methods of climate change, effects

CSRFormer: An Instantaneous Global-ocean Clear-sky Radiative Flux Dataset Derived From CERES, Zheng et al., Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research) Open Access 10.5281/zenodo.20046058

ERA5 Can Overstate Changes in the Frequency of Extreme Heat: A New Zealand Case Study, Iqbal et al., International Journal of Climatology Open Access 10.1002/joc.70571

Heatstroke mortality in a warming climate: From physiological risk to reporting practices in a multi-country study, Tob??as et al., Temperature 10.1080/23328940.2026.2698161

Investigating Climate Change Impacts on the 2020 Extreme Meiyu Through Global Variable-Resolution Ensemble Subseasonal Hindcasts, Xu et al., Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres 10.1029/2025jd045982

Six-fold reduction in ocean heat content estimate uncertainty since 1960, Cheng et al., Research Square Open Access pdf 10.21203/rs.3.rs-9248956/v1

Top-of-Atmosphere Radiation over the Last Millennium Reconstructed from Proxies, Stiller & Hakim, Journal of Climate pdf 10.1175/jcli-d-25-0568.1

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Coordinated Geostationary, Multispectral Satellite Observations Are Critical for Climate and Air Quality Progress, AGU Advances, 10.1029/2024av001322 9 cites.

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Modeling, simulation & projection of climate change, effects

Heatwaves in a 15 °C World: Exploring remote drivers’ influence on Northern Italy with a storyline-based approach, Squintu et al., Weather and Climate Extremes Open Access 10.1016/j.wace.2026.100949

Projections of Climate-Driven Changes in Fire Regimes and Implications for Boreal Landscapes in Alaska and Northwest Canada, Littell et al., Earth s Future Open Access pdf 10.1029/2026ef008324

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Impacts of AMOC Collapse on Monsoon Rainfall: A Multi-Model Comparison, Earth s Future, 10.1029/2023ef003959 30 cites.

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Advancement of climate & climate effects modeling, simulation & projection

Assessing the Impact of Sea Surface Temperature Biases in CMIP6 Coupled Models on the North Pacific Westerly Jet, Ushijima et al., Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research) Open Access 10.5281/zenodo.19705804

Causes of the Delayed Seasonality of Northern Hemisphere Tropical Cyclones in CMIP6 Models, Jiawei, Figshare Open Access 10.6084/m9.figshare.31224409

ClimAVA-SWE: A High-Resolution CMIP6-Based Snow Water Equivalent Dataset for the Western United States, Sajad et al., Harvard Dataverse Open Access 10.7910/dvn/scd2vt

Compound Climate Events and Cascading Impacts in the IPCC AR6: Analysis of Gaps and Avenues for the AR7, Duvat, Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews Climate Change Open Access 10.1002/wcc.70046

DeepMelt-GL v1: a neural network emulator of sub-shelf melt rates for the unrepresented regions of ice-shelf cavities in ocean models, Ockenden et al., Geoscientific model development Open Access pdf 10.5194/gmd-19-7979-2026

Dominant Biases in Atmospheric Radiative Heating Rates in Global Climate Models, Huang & Huang, Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2026gl122611

Excessive Negative Surface Heat Flux Feedback in CMIP6 Models, George et al., Journal of Geophysical Research Oceans 10.1029/2026jc024124

Forest canopy decline under elevated CO2 during the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum, Dunn et al., DRYAD Open Access 10.5061/dryad.wdbrv164q

IAM-FIRE: A Climate Emulator–Based Framework to Project Wildfire Impacts and Risks for Integrated Assessment Models, Rouhette et al., Global Change Biology Open Access 10.1111/gcb.70951

Improving simulation of Earth system variability through weakly coupled ocean data assimilation in E3SM, Shi et al., Geoscientific model development Open Access 10.5194/gmd-19-8003-2026

Three Generations of NARCliM: Evaluation of Precipitation, Temperature and Their Extremes Over the CORDEX Australasia Domain, Ji et al., International Journal of Climatology Open Access 10.1002/joc.70353

Urban climate evaluation in the upcoming generation of CMIP6-Driven EURO-CORDEX regional climate simulations, Díez-Sierra et al., Urban Climate Open Access 10.1016/j.uclim.2026.103103

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
On the Realism of Tropical Cyclone Intensification in Global Storm-Resolving Climate Models, Geophysical Research Letters, 10.1029/2024gl109841 21 cites.

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Cryosphere & climate change

A 1 km resolution dataset of Northern Hemisphere permafrost active layer thickness (2000–2024), Wei & Chen, Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research) Open Access 10.5281/zenodo.20602924

Changes in Arctic and Antarctic sea-ice properties and processes, Webster et al., Nature Reviews Earth & Environment 10.1038/s43017-026-00816-9

Earlier lake ice breakup in response to warming in the Novaya Zemlya Archipelago, Russian High Arctic: Evidence from MODIS data (2000-2024), Maraldo et al., Polar Science 10.1016/j.polar.2026.101365

Emergent Regimes of River Meandering and Permafrost Extent in Arctic Floodplains, Lamb et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2026gl124384

Global database of glacier failures (1900–2025), Ekaterina & Summer, Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research) Open Access 10.5281/zenodo.19477908

Long-term change of the ice phenology in Saroma-ko Lagoon, Hokkaido, Japan, Shiomoto et al., Polar Science 10.1016/j.polar.2026.101388

Long-term monitoring of active layer thickness confirms global permafrost degradation, Streletskiy et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-026-03824-1

Meltwater movement and refreezing in the wet snow zone of Qaanaaq Ice Cap, northwest Greenland, Minowa et al., Polar Science 10.1016/j.polar.2026.101395

On the non-linear response of Antarctic ice shelf surface melt to warming, Hofsteenge et al., cryosphere Open Access 10.5194/tc-20-4747-2026

Thermodynamic Control of Global Seasonal Snow Decline, Song et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2026gl122806

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Toward long-term monitoring of regional permafrost thaw with satellite interferometric synthetic aperture radar, cryosphere, 10.5194/tc-18-3723-2024 7 cites.

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Sea level & climate change

Human-induced subsidence exceeds sea-level rise in driving future coastal flood exposure in China’s Greater Bay Area, Wang et al., Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research) Open Access 10.5281/zenodo.20603078

Sea-level rise projections tailored for spatial adaptation planning in the U.S., Konfirst et al., Scientific Data Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41597-026-06669-7

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Simulated Impact of Time-Varying River Runoff and Greenland Freshwater Discharge on Sea Level Variability in the Beaufort Gyre Over 2005–2018, Journal of Geophysical Research Oceans, 10.1029/2024jc021237 6 cites.

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Paleoclimate & paleogeochemistry

Forest canopy decline under elevated CO2 during the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum, Dunn et al., DRYAD Open Access 10.5061/dryad.wdbrv164q

Modern anthropogenic subsidence rivals deglacial meltwater pulse rates in the Bohai and Yellow Seas, Qin et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-026-03889-y

Recent strengthening of eastern Pacific ENSO in the last millennium paleorecord, Cole et al., Science 10.1126/science.ady2660

Upcoming climate change: fossil record as a key to predict future biotic response, B?k & B?k, Frontiers in Earth Science Open Access pdf 10.3389/feart.2026.1950918

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Eocene maar sediments record warming of up to 3.5 °C during a hyperthermal event 47.2 million years ago, Communications Earth & Environment, 10.1038/s43247-024-01628-9 4 cites.

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Biology & climate change, related geochemistry

Arboreal Mammals Are at Risk Under Climate Change: Insights From a Global Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis, Silva et al., Global Change Biology Open Access 10.1111/gcb.71034

Blind Spots in Traditional Approaches to Conservation Prioritization in a Climate Change Context, Bondi et al., Diversity and Distributions Open Access pdf 10.1111/ddi.70259

Climate Warming Drives the Breakdown of Plant–Pollinator Mutualisms Despite Phenological Synchrony, Manincor et al., Global Change Biology Open Access 10.1111/gcb.71074

Climate-driven mobilization of rare earth elements and metals in Antarctica: Pathways, ecological exposure, and implications for trophic transfer, Khamis et al., Polar Science 10.1016/j.polar.2026.101394

Coral Reef In Situ Product (CRISP): a global compilation of coral reef temperature time series, Larson et al., Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research) Open Access 10.5281/zenodo.21045962

Declines in European bumblebee habitat suitability attributable to climate change, Tandt et al., Nature Climate Change 10.1038/s41558-026-02734-6

Declining hydraulic safety in a drier world, Liang et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 10.1073/pnas.2622754123

Direct and indirect effects of elevated CO2, warming and drought on plant–consumer interactions of Plantago lanceolata, Davidova et al., DRYAD Open Access 10.5061/dryad.r2280gbv1

Ensemble Modeling of Shifts in the Suitable Distribution and Ecological Niche of the Alpine Tibetan Medicinal Herb Corydalis hendersonii Hemsl. Under Climate Change and Human Activity, Wu et al., Ecology and Evolution Open Access 10.1002/ece3.73861

Future Climate Change and Bioclimatic Suitability of Two Endemic Balkan Water Frogs, Papežík et al., Diversity and Distributions Open Access pdf 10.1111/ddi.70246

Global spatial heterogeneity of changes in vegetation resistance to compound drought and heat events during 2001–2020, HAN et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2026.08.016

Increased Atmospheric CO2 Adversely Affects Large Pollinators, but Benefits Small Pollinators, Khan et al., DRYAD Open Access 10.5061/dryad.m37pvmdgh

Intensifying Flash Droughts Aggravate Vegetation Ecosystem Vulnerability in the Monsoon Region of China: Evidence From Resistance and Resilience Responses, Qi et al., Earth s Future Open Access 10.1029/2025ef006987

Large fisheries declines linked to compound and extreme climate events, Cheung et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-026-77077-z

Long-Term Evolution Under Heatwave Conditions in the Seed Beetle, Callosobruchus maculatus, Ivimey-Cook et al., Ecology and Evolution Open Access 10.1002/ece3.73562

Narwhals document atlantification of East Greenland, Heide-Jørgensen et al., Science Advances Open Access 10.1126/sciadv.adr1424

Projecting future habitat suitability and range dynamics of Spermophilus dauricus on the Mongolian Plateau under climate change, Wang et al., Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution Open Access 10.3389/fevo.2026.1921190

Reply to: Antarctic greening is constrained by biology and requires field validation, Roland et al., Nature Geoscience 10.1038/s41561-026-02080-4

Reply to: Estimated tree longevity response to climate at risk of methodological bias, Gao et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-026-03935-9

Saturation effect of background temperature and aridity on vegetation phenological sensitivity to urban warming, Zhang et al., Biogeosciences Open Access 10.5194/bg-23-5943-2026

Saturation effect of background temperature and aridity on vegetation phenological sensitivity to urban warming, Zhang et al., Biogeosciences Open Access 10.5194/bg-23-5943-2026

Space Use Change Associated With Climate Induces Camouflage Mismatch to Increase Extinction Risk in an Endangered Mammal, Mahoney et al., Global Change Biology Open Access pdf 10.1111/gcb.71079

The Impact of Climate Change on the Spatial Distribution of Seven Meconopsis Species in China: A MaxEnt Model-Based Predictive Analysis, Yang et al., Ecology and Evolution Open Access 10.1002/ece3.73824

The Potential Habitat of Liparis campylostalix (Orchidaceae) in China Under Climate Change Scenario Predicted by MaxEnt Model, Deng et al., Ecology and Evolution Open Access 10.1002/ece3.73536

Thermal Stress and Habitat Loss: Assessing the Vulnerability of Potamon fluviatile (Decapoda: Potamidae) to Climate Change in Italy, Sorboni et al., Ecology and Evolution Open Access pdf 10.1002/ece3.74256

Warming Reduces Cold Hardiness of Boreal Plants but Damage Risk Varies by Species and Season, Campos-Arguedas et al., Global Change Biology Open Access 10.1111/gcb.71081

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Global increase in the optimal temperature for the productivity of terrestrial ecosystems, Communications Earth & Environment, 10.1038/s43247-024-01636-9 35 cites.

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GHG sources & sinks, flux, related geochemistry

A Step Forward to Global Segment CO2 Flux Estimation Benefiting from Large Swath of Coordinated CO2 and Solar-Induced Fluorescence Measurements from the TanSat-2 Mission, Yang et al., Advances in Atmospheric Sciences Open Access 10.1007/s00376-026-6150-1

Blue carbon functional collapse precedes physical marsh retreat, Wang et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-026-03971-5

Correction for Zhou et al., Warming substantially amplifies Antarctic coastal polynyas as key carbon sinks, [authors did not process], Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 10.1073/pnas.2627297123

Divergent Trends in the Seasonal Amplitude of Atmospheric CO2 Across the Globe, Linyang & Jiawen, Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research) Open Access 10.5281/zenodo.17810400

Estimation of forest carbon storage with small samples based on Bayesian hierarchical model, Fan et al., Frontiers in Forests and Global Change Open Access 10.3389/ffgc.2026.1909517

Exploring atmospheric CH4 monitoring network expansion in Italy using inverse modelling, Mil et al., ICOS Carbon Portal Open Access 10.18160/tgmj-4ygj

Global methane emission estimates from a dual-isotope inversion: new constraints from δD-CH4, Dasgupta et al., Utrecht University Repository (Utrecht University) Open Access pmh:oai:dspace.library.uu.nl:1874/486815

Global peatlands formed via paludification since the Last Glacial Maximum are more conducive to absorbing CO2, Gao et al., Global and Planetary Change 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2026.105692

Hydropower reservoirs will lead energy-sector carbon emissions by 2050 under a net-zero scenario, Wang et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-026-03982-2

Impact of land use on carbon dynamics in cold-temperate rivers: A case study of the Ussuri (Wusuli) River basin, Northeast China, Zhang et al., Anthropocene 10.1016/j.ancene.2026.100575

Increased maximum carbon release offsets half of the growth trend in annual land carbon sink, Bai et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-026-77462-8

Multidimensional inequalities in attributed passenger-transport CO2 across 21 EU member States in 2015, Álvarez-Antelo et al., Energy Policy Open Access pdf 10.1016/j.enpol.2026.115582

Polar and subpolar shelf seas dominate enhanced coastal CO2 uptake during marine heatwaves, Hu et al., Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-026-77165-0

Radiocarbon in atmospheric CH4 and CO2 at Jungfraujoch in 2019–2024: influence of regional nuclear emissions and current global atmospheric 14CH4 signal, Laemmel et al., Open Access CRIS of the University of Bern Open Access 10.48620/100501

Soil disturbance in wetlands by feral pigs increases greenhouse gas emissions, Adame et al., Biogeosciences Open Access pdf 10.5194/bg-23-5781-2026

Synergistic effects of warming and elevated CO2 intensify drought impacts on grassland carbon and water fluxes, Tissink et al., MPG.PuRe (Max Planck Society) Open Access pdf pmh:oai:pure.mpg.de:item_3716274

Synergistic Interactions Between Warming and Elevated Atmospheric CO2 Increase Soil Organic Carbon Sequestration, Yao, Figshare Open Access 10.6084/m9.figshare.31563121

Temporal lag in post-mining regrowth amplifies carbon loss in tropical forests during the period 2000–2023, He et al., Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-026-77252-2

The EDGAR-LULUCF Dataset of forest-related carbon emissions and removals, Rossi et al., Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research) Open Access 10.5281/zenodo.20381555

Three-Fourths of Carbon Emissions From 2023 Record-Breaking Wildfires in Canada Traced to Soil and Peat Combustion, Zhong et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1029/2026gl123393

Trophic regulation constrains ecosystem carbon accumulation under global change, Xu et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Open Access 10.1073/pnas.2610728123

Using Tower-Based Observational Networks to Assess the Impact of COVID-19 Lockdowns on Greenhouse Gas Emissions in Six North American Cities, Barkley et al., Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres Open Access 10.1029/2025jd045115

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Reducing the uncertainty in estimating soil microbial-derived carbon storage, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 10.1073/pnas.2401916121 157 cites.

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CO2 capture, sequestration science & engineering

Assessment of formation brine salinity, pressure and temperature in selected structures in eastern Denmark and implications for CO2 storage, Schovsbo et al., GEUS Bulletin Open Access 10.34194/62417j08

Industrializing reactive capture of CO2, Xiao et al., Nature Energy 10.1038/s41560-026-02113-7

Near-term, geospatial opportunity for biomass carbon storage to address the wildfire and climate crises, Clayton et al., Science Advances Open Access 10.1126/sciadv.aee6185

Seismic investigations of eight geological structures for potential storage of CO2 in Denmark: an introduction, Gregersen et al., GEUS Bulletin Open Access 10.34194/299dt488

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
The feasibility of reaching gigatonne scale CO2 storage by mid-century, Nature Communications, 10.1038/s41467-024-51226-8 64 cites.

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Decarbonization

Regional retrofit, net-zero aspirations, and their whole-life carbon burden, Zune et al., Environmental Research Infrastructure and Sustainability Open Access 10.1088/2634-4505/ae9984

Sustainable polar shipping under climate change: A bibliometric review of emissions and efficiency, Tuti, Polar Science 10.1016/j.polar.2026.101392

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Pathway decisions for reuse and recycling of retired lithium-ion batteries considering economic and environmental functions, Nature Communications, 10.1038/s41467-024-52030-0 224 cites.

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Geoengineering climate

Wind-Driven Circulation Feedbacks Offset Tropical Geoengineered Sea Salt Emissions, Wang et al., Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres Open Access 10.1029/2026jd047411

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Africa's Climate Response to Marine Cloud Brightening Strategies Is Highly Sensitive to Deployment Region, Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres, 10.1029/2024jd041070 6 cites.

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Black carbon
Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
The politics of knowledge in black carbon mitigation: Policy entrepreneurship of Finnish actors and the Climate and Clean Air Coalition, Environmental Science & Policy, 10.1016/j.envsci.2024.103881 3 cites.

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Aerosols

Instantaneous radiative forcings due to the first indirect effect linked to low-level liquid clouds in the Amazon, Pugliesi et al., Atmospheric chemistry and physics Open Access pdf 10.5194/acp-26-12151-2026

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
On the sensitivity of aerosol–cloud interactions to changes in sea surface temperature in radiative–convective equilibrium, Atmospheric chemistry and physics, 10.5194/acp-24-9323-2024 2 cites.

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Climate change communications & cognition

A systematic review and meta-analysis of communication strategies to promote climate action, Uenal et al., OSF Preprints (OSF Preprints) pmh:oai:share.osf.io:acc66f76-7427-4f8d-ae9b-f0597aaf12dd

Aiding or shaming in climate politics: Evidence from a survey experiment in Brazil, Calacino, Energy Research & Social Science Open Access 10.1016/j.erss.2026.104919

Climate disinformation and moral distortion, Hopster & Martini, Environmental Politics Open Access pdf 10.1080/09644016.2026.2721054

Comparing threat- and solution-oriented climate communication: The role of hope, self-efficacy, and climate anxiety in motivating high-impact climate-friendly behavior, Ringhofer et al., Journal of Environmental Psychology 10.1016/j.jenvp.2026.103194

In Sickness and in Heat – A Content Analysis of German Media Coverage of Chronic Diseases and Climate-Related Weather Events, Singh & Metag, Environmental Communication Open Access pdf 10.1080/17524032.2026.2723748

Misrepresentation of Human Climate Fingerprint in DOE Report, Santer et al., Earth s Future Open Access pdf 10.1029/2026ef008831

Stereotypes Shape Public Impressions of Unconventional Climate Advocates Across Urban and Regional Communities, Wang et al., Environmental Communication Open Access pdf 10.1080/17524032.2026.2723751

When beliefs meet technology: conservatism, climate denialism, and support for solar geoengineering, Lee et al., Environmental Politics Open Access pdf 10.1080/09644016.2026.2721030

[Comment] The imperative to counter fossil fuel industry disinformation for public health, Narayan et al., The Lancet Planetary Health Open Access 10.1016/j.lanplh.2026.101435

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
For cash, the planet, or for both: Evaluating an informational intervention for energy consumption reduction, Energy Policy, 10.1016/j.enpol.2024.114314 6 cites.

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Agronomy, animal husbundry, food production & climate change

Climate change and food security in sustainable finance: a South African perspective, Zenda, Frontiers in Climate Open Access 10.3389/fclim.2026.1926592

Compound Hot-Dry Days (CHDDs) and Their Implications on Maize Yields in the Free State Province, South Africa, Moeletsi & Tsubo, International Journal of Climatology Open Access pdf 10.1002/joc.70281

Dam Regulation Moderates Climate-Induced Rice Yield Loss in the Mekong-Tonle Sap Lake System, Zhang et al., Earth s Future Open Access pdf 10.1029/2025ef008053

Evaluating Crop Yield Sensitivity to Climate Change Using a Deep-Learning Framework Incorporating Vegetation and Groundwater Memory, Baluch et al., Earth s Future Open Access 10.1029/2026ef008560

Fostering the forest circular bioeconomy to combat climate change by producing biochar from conifer and broadleaf stands, Mosquera-Losada et al., Frontiers in Forests and Global Change Open Access pdf 10.3389/ffgc.2026.1821315

From soft limits to hard thresholds: mapping the adaptation gap in sub-Saharan African agriculture – a systematic review, Madanzi et al., Frontiers in Climate Open Access pdf 10.3389/fclim.2026.1807595

Grazing Enhances System Carbon Balance via the Soil-Plant-Livestock Carbon Pump Regulation Despite Suppressing Specific Carbon Cycling Pathways, Zhou et al., Earth s Future Open Access pdf 10.1029/2026ef008382

Heterogeneous persistent ENSO impact on China’s agricultural economy in a warming climate, Wang, Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research) Open Access 10.5281/zenodo.18168708

Irrigation Impact on Humid Heat Stress: Divergent Metrics, Vegetation Dynamics, and Future Worsening, Shen et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2026gl123720

Making climate governance actionable: a corpus-based analysis of institutionalizing climate change in tuna fisheries governance, He et al., npj Ocean Sustainability Open Access 10.1038/s44183-026-00240-y

Research priorities for climate adaptation and resilience in smallholder livestock systems in sub-Saharan Africa: a systematic review, Slayi et al., Frontiers in Climate Open Access 10.3389/fclim.2026.1924189

Retraction Note: An autocatalytic multicomponent DNAzyme nanomachine for tumor-specific photothermal therapy sensitization in pancreatic cancer, Yan et al., Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-026-75939-0

Straw mulching mitigates warming-induced yield loss and leverages elevated CO2 to improve winter wheat productivity under projected climate scenarios, Yang et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 10.1016/j.agrformet.2026.111449

[Articles] Impacts of climate-driven yield changes on the affordability of healthy diets: a modelling study, Jiang et al., The Lancet Planetary Health Open Access 10.1016/j.lanplh.2026.101519

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Losses and destabilization of soil organic carbon stocks in coastal wetlands converted into aquaculture ponds, Global Change Biology, 10.1111/gcb.17480 43 cites.

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Hydrology, hydrometeorology & climate change

Comment on “Flooding Is Not like Filling a Bath” by Sanders et al., Dijk et al., Global Change Biology 10.1111/j.1365-2486.2008.01708.x

Multilayer soil moisture depletion intensifies drought impacts on global ecosystems, Gu et al., Nature Geoscience Open Access 10.1038/s41561-026-02083-1

Spatiotemporal Evolution of Regional Heavy Rainfall Events in Guangdong, South China: Intensification and Expansion Since the Early 1990s, Liu et al., International Journal of Climatology Open Access pdf 10.1002/joc.70572

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Increasing extreme precipitation variability plays a key role in future record-shattering event probability, Communications Earth & Environment, 10.1038/s43247-024-01622-1 32 cites.

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Climate change mitigation public policy research

Decarbonisation policy instruments and climate justice: Insights from a systematic literature review of social science literature, Ramôa & Pires, Environmental Science & Policy Open Access pdf 10.1016/j.envsci.2026.104461

Institutional compression in climate policy integration: coordinating green electricity certificates and carbon emissions trading in China, Tian & Wang, Climate Policy 10.1080/14693062.2026.2722557

Resilient futures: integrating nature-based solutions and community innovation to combat climate change and foster environmental sustainability, Yu, Climate and Development 10.1080/17565529.2026.2690614

Uneven geographies of climate change mitigation: labour, territorial defence, and the blue economy in Colombian Caribbean mangroves, Manrique, Global Environmental Change Open Access 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2026.103223

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Energy transition at the crossroads of energy depletion and environmental policy stringency: Energy policy framework for energy giants in the indo-pacific belt, Energy Policy, 10.1016/j.enpol.2024.114311 23 cites.

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Climate change adaptation & adaptation public policy research

A Systematic Review of the Ways Schools Engage With Climate Change Adaptation, Laub et al., Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews Climate Change 10.1002/wcc.70080

Adaptation dominates climate responses in social-ecological systems in northern Sweden, Ohlsson et al., Communications Sustainability Open Access pdf 10.1038/s44458-026-00143-6

Authoritarian diversity and its limits: regime subtypes and climate change adaptation readiness, Ko, Environmental Sociology Open Access 10.1080/23251042.2026.2724934

Climate precarity and the mobilities of rural youth: land, politics, and labour in southern Ethiopia, Chung & Schwanen, Global Environmental Change Open Access 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2026.103221

Desert flooding highlights a critical gap in climate change adaptation, Gao et al., Science 10.1126/science.aek8173

Sea-level rise projections tailored for spatial adaptation planning in the U.S., Konfirst et al., Scientific Data Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41597-026-06669-7

The climate refugee misnomer, Auslender et al., Environmental Politics 10.1080/09644016.2026.2724664

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Climate change in Africa: Impacts, adaptation, and policy responses, Global Environmental Change, 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2024.102912 75 cites.

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Climate change impacts on human health

Age-specific exposure to human-induced increases in humid heat, Pietroiusti et al., Science Advances Open Access 10.1126/sciadv.aeb3232

Climate change and child undernutrition in Nigeria: a systematic review of evidence and policy gaps, Langkulsen et al., Frontiers in Climate Open Access pdf 10.3389/fclim.2026.1767416

Epidermal growth factor receptor dysregulation and climate change: insights into pollution-promoted lung cancer, Nikaido-Landry et al., Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B Biological Sciences Open Access 10.1098/rstb.2024.0508

Erratum for the Research Article “Forecast attribution reveals enhanced heat mortality from climate change in British Columbia heatwave” by C.Y. Shapland et al., [authors did not process], Science Advances Open Access 10.1126/sciadv.aej3478

Heat exposure and adaptive responses: a systematic literature review in Southeast Asia, Sugesti & Nastiti, Urban Climate 10.1016/j.uclim.2026.103119

Heat stress and public health issues: impacts, adaptation, and mitigation, [authors did not process], Frontiers research topics 10.3389/978-2-8325-8532-0

Heatstroke mortality in a warming climate: From physiological risk to reporting practices in a multi-country study, Tob??as et al., Temperature 10.1080/23328940.2026.2698161

[Articles] Direct and spillover hospitalisation patterns during climate hazards across regions of different health-system resilience levels in China: a nationwide retrospective analysis, Wang et al., The Lancet Planetary Health Open Access 10.1016/j.lanplh.2026.101512

[Articles] Five years of Greener NHS: improved carbon footprint assessment of the National Health Service in England, Simpson et al., The Lancet Planetary Health Open Access 10.1016/j.lanplh.2026.101464

[Articles] Health integration in national climate adaptation policies from 198 countries: a global policy analysis, Morneau et al., The Lancet Planetary Health Open Access 10.1016/j.lanplh.2026.101466

[Articles] Heat waves and annual mortality among older adults (aged ≥65 years) in the USA, Healy et al., The Lancet Planetary Health Open Access 10.1016/j.lanplh.2026.101432

[Comment] The imperative to counter fossil fuel industry disinformation for public health, Narayan et al., The Lancet Planetary Health Open Access 10.1016/j.lanplh.2026.101435

[Personal View] Reforming public health law to adapt to the changing climate: a case study of mosquito-borne disease management, Boocock et al., The Lancet Planetary Health Open Access 10.1016/j.lanplh.2025.101427

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Population at risk of dengue virus transmission has increased due to coupled climate factors and population growth, Communications Earth & Environment, 10.1038/s43247-024-01639-6 77 cites.

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Climate change & geopolitics

Climate change as a driver of transformative evolution in international environmental law: a systematic review and bibliometric analysis (2014–2025), Carvajal-Morales et al., Frontiers in Environmental Science Open Access pdf 10.3389/fenvs.2026.1813963

Climate change impacts on human culture Other

Artificial intelligence and climate change: Lessons for global governance, Swain, Energy Research & Social Science 10.1016/j.erss.2026.104937

Escalating Uncertainty Under Increasing Risk in Compound Heat and Precipitation Extremes, Zhou et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2026gl124193

Informed opinion, nudges & major initiatives

UN finally admits global warming will shoot past 1.5 ºC climate limit, Dinneen, Nature 10.1038/d41586-026-02753-5

[Comment] A call for evidence-based adaptation: mitigating the rising global health burden of extreme heat, Li et al., The Lancet Planetary Health Open Access pdf 10.1016/j.lanplh.2025.101287

[Personal View] Promoting climate-resilient agriculture and food security through school feeding, Singh et al., The Lancet Planetary Health Open Access 10.1016/j.lanplh.2025.101414

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Integrating night studies into climate science, Nature Climate Change, 10.1038/s41558-024-02117-9 19 cites.

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Book reviews

Climate politics: can’t live with it, can’t mitigate without it, Manjima, Political Studies Review Open Access pdf 10.1177/14789299261477263

Articles/Reports from Agencies and Non-Governmental Organizations Addressing Aspects of Climate Change

An Affordability Crisis of Trump’s Own Making. The Trump administration’s energy policy is driving up costs for American households and making us sick, Yuqi Zhu, Natural Resources Defense Council

Thanks to the Trump administration’s policies to stop renewable energy and promote fossil fuels; by 2035, U.S. consumers are projected to spend up to an extra $30 billion a year on electricity under Trump’s policies, with household electricity bills increasing up to 25 percent in certain parts of the country. Trump’s energy agenda could result in up to $700 billion in lost investment in the U.S. power system over the next decade. The country could lose between 390 and 540 gigawatts of new wind, solar, and energy storage power plants over the next decade—requiring the U.S. power grid to keep more expensive, aging coal, gas, and oil plants online instead to meet growing power needs. Increased air pollution due to these policies could result in up to 69,000 additional early deaths and 85,000 extra emergency room visits and hospital admissions. This could increase health-care spending by up to $1.7 billion per year, adding further pressure on already high health-care insurance premiums for American households. Power sector carbon dioxide emissions could be twice as high by 2035. In total, the United States is projected to emit an additional 3.6 to 5.5 billion metric tons economy-wide over the next decade due to Trump’s agenda, with more than half of this extra climate pollution coming from the power sector.

Water Behind the Watts: The Hidden Risk of Powering Data Centers, James et al., Ceres

Power generation makes up the bulk of the data center water use. Data centers in the states analyzed depend on about 3.4 trillion gallons of freshwater annually for electricity, around 12 times the annual water use of Los Angeles, Phoenix, and Washington D.C., combined. The amount of water needed to produce electricity varies widely by state, depending on the type of electricity generation used. 78% of the electricity in the states analyzed came from power plants that use water to operate. Most electricity is generated by power plants located in areas facing water stress or drought (or both). In these states, 66% of power plants that use water were exposed to medium-high to extremely high water stress. Most power producers identify data centers as a primary driver of rising electricity demand, but few have considered the potential water risks tied to this growth. Most companies operating data centers do not take into account the water risks linked to the electricity they purchase.

What do Global Warming’s Six Americas think about data centers?, Gour et al., Yale University and George Mason University

Opposition to building data centers in local communities varies across Global Warming’s Six Americas, ranging from 71%1 among the Alarmed to 32% among the Disengaged. The Alarmed and the Concerned are the most likely to expect that new data centers will increase local electricity bills, while the Disengaged are the most likely to say they do not know. The Alarmed and Concerned are the most supportive of requiring data centers to offset their electricity use by installing rooftop solar on and/or weatherizing and insulating local homes, while the Dismissive are the least supportive.

The PennFuture Energy Playbook: Building Our Energy Future, Donna Kohut, Citizens for Pennsylvania’s Future

The PennFuture Energy Playbook offers policy suggestions for state lawmakers, including updating the Alternative Energy Portfolio Standard by passing legislation requiring 35% of electricity to be generated by renewable energy sources; passing Community Solar enabling legislation; incentivizing solar development on previously impacted, commercial, or industrial properties, prioritizing the rooftops of warehouses, fulfillment centers, and large government buildings; and promoting sustainable economic development by leveraging environmental standards attached to financial resources.

Solar Schools for North Carolina. Repowering education with clean energy, Quentin Good and Johanna Neumann, Frontier Group and Environment North Carolina

To tap the benefits of solar schools, North Carolina should protect and expand policies that make it easier and more financially appealing for schools to install solar panels. Schools are often ideal sites for solar energy. North Carolina could generate enough electricity from solar on public school rooftops each year to power 150,000 typical homes. Solar panels on schools reduce pollution. State policies can make it easier for schools to go solar. Local, state and federal officials should take steps to make it as easy as possible for schools to go solar, while school districts should consider adopting solar on rooftops and school grounds.

Summary Report: Second Conference on Attribution Science and Climate Law, Jessica Wentz, Columbia Law School, Sabin Center for Climate Change Law

A summary report for the Second Conference on Attribution Science and Climate Law, held at Columbia University on June 10–11, 2026. The event brought together physical scientists, legal scholars, public health researchers, economists, and policy experts to discuss key developments in climate change attribution science and its evolving role in climate law and governance. The author provides an overview of key themes and topics covered at the conference, as well as a detailed summary of the presentations and panel discussions. Video recordings of the event can also be accessed from the event website and the Sabin Center Youtube channel. Rapid advances in attribution research—including storyline approaches, integrated impact modeling, and end-to-end attribution—are strengthening the scientific foundation for linking GHG emissions, climate change, and specific harms. Panelists highlighted the utility of these methods not only as evidentiary support in climate litigation and corporate accountability claims, but also as vital tools for informing government decision-making, adaptation planning, disaster risk reduction, and international loss and damage frameworks. Discussions also confronted ongoing challenges, including political pressures on climate science, the necessity of clear communication regarding scientific uncertainties, and the importance of addressing structural inequalities alongside physical hazards.

Climate Double Agents: The Congressional lobbyists pushing fossil fuels and solutions to the climate crisis, F Minus

The authors reviewed Congressional lobbyist disclosures of 228 lobbying firms. They found fossil fuel lobbyists simultaneously lobbying on almost every aspect of the climate crisis, from climate mitigation to disaster relief to wildlife conservation. The most conflicted firm on the issue of climate mitigation funding for local governments was Greenberg Traurig, which lobbied for the American Petroleum Institute (API) and ConocoPhillips in Congress, the Western States Petroleum Association in California, and the American Fuel & Petrochemical Manufactures (AFPM) in New York, all of which have opposed the creation of climate superfunds. Greenberg Traurig also lobbied on shoreline protection and Everglades restoration for Miami-Dade County and lobbied for the City of Rochester and Westchester County in New York, both of which would lose tens of millions in future climate mitigation funds if the firm’s clients API and AFPM succeed in passing a Congressional bill invalidating state Climate Superfunds, including New York’s.

What to Make of Data Center Moratoriums?, Melissa Birchard, Georgetown Climate Center

State and local governments have been proposing – and in many cases enacting – data center permitting moratoriums at an increasingly rapid pace over the past six months. According to recent Heatmap reporting, over 530 local laws have been enacted to ban or restrict data center development, while many more jurisdictions are considering enacting moratoriums. However, all moratoriums are not the same. The purpose of this brief is to make these developments a little more understandable by breaking them down into some of their uses and characteristics. Identifying potential differences between moratoriums may help state and local leaders understand their options for responding to the concerns of their constituents. Looking beyond the headlines may also point policymakers and the data center industry toward substantive issues that can be addressed – in advance of any potential moratorium – through measures such as increased transparency, focused community consultation, and conservation and emissions reduction measures.

Fires without Borders: Understanding Wildfire Risks and Transboundary Challenges in the Asia-Pacific Region, Du et al., Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific

Wildfires are increasingly recognized as a systemic and transboundary challenge in the Asia Pacific region. The authors examine the evolving wildfire risk landscape by situating wildfires within a disaster risk framework that integrates hazard, exposure, and vulnerability. Drawing on historical fire events in the region and recent case studies from Thailand and Indonesia, the authors highlight persistent challenges in wildfire monitoring and mapping, including visibility, accessibility, and complexity gaps. Regional institutional mechanisms and wildfire monitoring systems are also presented and summarized, with critical gaps identified between global data infrastructures and local operational needs. Strengthening integrated fire management will require linking Earth observation and frontier technologies, institutional cooperation, and community-based approaches, to translate international commitments into local resilience.

Workshop: Regulatory Barriers to Small Modular Reactor Technologies for Maritime Applications, US. Center for Maritime Innovation

The workshop was held to generate insights on maritime nuclear regulatory development. A series of questions was used to gather insight on a range of topics for floating nuclear power plants (FNPPs) and nuclear-powered vessels. Over 90 stakeholders gathered in person, with another 90 participating online, each submitting recommendations in response to facilitated questions. Group discussions supplemented insights from individual participants. The workshop’s message was clear: maritime nuclear deployment will require a blended regulatory model, not piecemeal adaptation of existing rules. The highest-value near-term action is for U.S. Coast Guard and the Nuclear Regulatory Commission to jointly define responsibilities, publish an interface framework, and establish a predictable approval pathway for demonstration projects. Without that, regulatory uncertainty will remain a primary barrier to deployment. It should be noted that not all recommended changes are under agency control, often requiring statutory changes. The USCMI has a planned project to further develop the regulatory framework, focusing on testing the new MOU and developing insights into further needed regulatory refinements.

GLOBSEC Competitiveness Tracker: Energy Security & Critical Raw Materials, Andrei Covatariu and Jan Rosenow, GLOBSEC

Energy security and access to critical raw materials (CRMS) have become defining factors of Europe's competitiveness and resilience. Once centered on fossil fuels, energy security now depends on reliable access to clean technologies, industrial capacity, and diversified CRM supply chains. The EU’s Competitiveness Compass connects innovation, decarbonization, and security — supported by simplification, Single Market integration, financing, skills, and EU–Member State coordination. In Central and Eastern Europe (CEE), where exposure to high energy prices and external dependencies remains acute, aligning national priorities with EU frameworks is crucial. Surveyed stakeholders highlight slow progress, weak regulatory clarity, and limited institutional capacity, but also identify regional opportunities in grid integration, clean-firm energy, and CRM processing. CEE can either become a resilience hub or remain a vulnerability corridor. Thus, accelerating reforms and leveraging EU instruments will determine whether Europe secures its industrial base and sustains global competitiveness in the clean-energy era.

Europe’s energy security in 2026: More resilient, but systematically exposed, Izabela Surwillo and Julia Schwab, Danish Institute for International Studies

Europe has come a long way since the 2022 energy crisis—but greater resilience has not eliminated vulnerability. The authors show how Europe’s energy security risks are shifting: from dependence on Russian fossil fuels toward concentrated LNG supplies, overstretched electricity grids, critical raw-material dependencies and infrastructure that must withstand increasingly complex disruptions. As electrification accelerates, the challenge is no longer simply securing enough energy, but ensuring that grids, supply chains and essential services can keep functioning under stress. Three priorities for action stand out: stronger cross-sector crisis preparedness, better access to emergency energy equipment, and more effective support for strategic critical-material projects.

The take-off in African solar that official statistics can’t yet see, Dave Jones and Joel Nana, Ember

The authors present their estimates of solar power capacity installed in every African country from 2023 to 2026, built from Chinese customs data using a new calibrated method. They compare these estimates with official national and international statistics, examine the split between utility-scale and distributed solar, and review Africa’s emerging solar panel manufacturing. Seventeen gigawatts of solar were installed across Africa in 2026 is up 45%, the third consecutive record year. A hundred thousand solar panels were installed across Africa every day during 2026. Seventy five percent of Africa’s solar growth in 2023-2025 is likely from distributed solar – and is largely missing from official statistics.

U.S. Energy Storage Market Outlook, Quarter 3, 2026, Solar Energy Industries Association

In Q2 2026, battery energy stationary storage (BESS) installations reached 20.2 GWh GWh, the largest quarter in history and a a 108% quarter-over-quarter increase. The utility-scale market continued underpin growth, with 18 GWh installed, largely supported by seven gigawatt scale projects. Arizona installed over 6.2 GWh of utility scale projects, the largest quarterly deployment for any state in history. Residential storage added 657 MWh and commercial and industrial (C&I) added 1.8 GWh, largely on the back of demand from data centers. Two cell factories opened in Q2, bringing total cell manufacturing capacity to over 50 GWh. A new module manufacturing facility opened as well, bringing total module manufacturing capacity to over 100 GWh. By 2030, the market is set to exceed annual installations of 110 GWh and install a cumulative 683 GWh.

Limiting Overshoot: Navigating exceedance of 1.5°C and pathways towards return, Atallah et al., United Nations Environment Program

The authors found that as global temperature rise gets set to cross 1.5°C, pushing climate risks and effects to dangerous new heights, the world must strive to return to below 1.5°C as soon as possible and simultaneously reduce the vulnerability of societies, communities and economies to climate impacts. The authors suggest that the world can achieve this goal by acting now to get on an ‘overshoot, peak, and decline’ pathway. About New Research

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