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Shell Faces Climate Disaster Claims on Two Continents — From Brazil’s Deadly Floods to the Philippines’ Devastating Typhoon
15 October 2026 | RoyalDutchShellPlc.com
A remarkable new chapter in climate litigation is unfolding on opposite sides of the world. In Brazil, federal prosecutors and an environmental organisation are seeking approximately $108 million from a Shell subsidiary over catastrophic floods that killed nearly 200 people in 2024. In Britain, more than 100 survivors of a devastating Philippine typhoon are pursuing Shell for losses suffered in December 2021. The cases raise a question with potentially enormous consequences for the fossil fuel industry: can a major oil and gas producer be made legally responsible for a measurable proportion of the damage caused by an individual climate-related disaster?
Two disasters, two continents, one corporate defendantOn 15 October 2026, Agence France-Presse published an investigation examining the emerging lawsuits against Shell in Brazil and the Philippines.
The report, republished by Barron’s, highlights a developing legal strategy that differs substantially from traditional environmental litigation.
Historically, many major cases involving Shell have concerned identifiable pollution incidents, allegations of environmental damage near company facilities, or the conduct of particular subsidiaries.
These newer proceedings present a different challenge.
The plaintiffs allege that emissions associated with Shell’s worldwide fossil fuel business contributed to the warming of the planet, thereby increasing the severity or likelihood of particular extreme-weather events.
They argue that Shell should compensate victims for an appropriate share of the resulting harm.
The events occurred thousands of miles apart.
The legal systems are different.
The claimants suffered different losses.
But both cases seek to translate scientific evidence about climate change into legal responsibility for damage suffered by identifiable communities.
If the claimants succeed, the consequences could extend well beyond Shell.
BRAZIL: The $108 million lawsuitOn 9 October 2026, Brazilian federal prosecutors and the environmental organisation Instituto Preservar filed proceedings against Shell’s Brazilian subsidiary.
The claim concerns the devastating floods that struck Rio Grande do Sul in April and May 2024.
The disaster caused widespread destruction across southern Brazil.
Nearly 200 people died, approximately half a million were displaced, and entire communities suffered catastrophic damage.
The claimants seek compensation equivalent to approximately $108 million.
We reported the development in our article published on 10 October:
The new AFP investigation provides additional detail about the legal strategy.
Thales Miola, a lawyer representing Instituto Preservar, explained that the claimants selected Shell because of its size, historical emissions and established contribution to global fossil fuel production.
Shell is not Brazil’s largest oil company.
That distinction belongs to Petrobras.
But the plaintiffs argue that Shell’s historical contribution to global greenhouse gas emissions makes it an appropriate defendant.
The case could provide an important test of whether Brazilian law permits damages to be recovered from an individual fossil fuel producer for its alleged contribution to a climate-amplified disaster.
No court has yet established Shell’s liability in these proceedings.
The scientific calculation behind the Brazilian claimThe most interesting aspect of the Brazilian proceedings is the attempted use of climate-attribution science to calculate a company’s potential financial responsibility.
AFP reports that the claimants rely upon scientific research estimating that human-caused climate change increased the intensity of the rainfall associated with the 2024 disaster.
A peer-reviewed study published in npj Natural Hazards estimated that warming increased the rainfall intensity by approximately 12 per cent, although the study identified substantial uncertainty around the estimate.
An earlier World Weather Attribution investigation concluded that human-induced climate change made comparable extreme rainfall more than twice as likely and increased its intensity by approximately 6–9 per cent.
The studies used different methods and statistical assessments.
They should not be presented as producing identical estimates.
The Brazilian plaintiffs have adopted the approximately 12 per cent figure as part of their legal argument.
They also rely upon estimates from the Carbon Majors database attributing approximately 2.02 per cent of historical industrial carbon dioxide emissions to Shell.
The claimants seek to connect those two figures.
Their proposed approach is to calculate Shell’s share of the additional harm associated with climate change, using its estimated contribution to historical emissions.
In simplified terms, the argument involves applying Shell’s approximately two per cent historical emissions share to the climate-related portion of the disaster’s damage.
That is the plaintiffs’ proposed attribution framework.
It is not an accepted judicial formula for calculating damages.
A court would need to consider whether the scientific evidence, relevant Brazilian law and other evidence of causation justify the requested compensation.
The difference is fundamental.
Scientific evidence that climate change intensified rainfall does not automatically establish that an individual company is legally liable for a specified percentage of flood damage.
The plaintiffs must establish that legal connection.
Shell would be entitled to challenge both the legal reasoning and the claimed amount.
THE PHILIPPINES: Survivors of Typhoon Odette take Shell to courtThe Philippine proceedings are particularly significant because they concern identifiable individuals seeking compensation for deaths, injuries and destruction of property.
On 16 December 2021, Super Typhoon Rai — known locally as Odette — struck the Philippines.
The storm devastated communities across the central and southern regions of the country.
More than 400 people died.
Millions were affected, and large numbers of homes and livelihoods were destroyed.
For those who survived, the consequences were often life-changing.
Families lost relatives.
Homes disappeared.
Fishing boats, farms and businesses were destroyed.
Communities faced the difficult task of rebuilding.
Four years later, a group of survivors decided to pursue Shell through the English legal system.
On 23 October 2025, international law firm Hausfeld announced that it had sent a formal Letter Before Action to Shell plc and The Shell Transport and Trading Company Limited.
At that stage, Hausfeld represented 67 individuals.
The letter outlined intended legal proceedings concerning losses allegedly intensified by climate change.
The firm identified claims involving property destruction, personal injuries, bereavement, psychological harm and lost livelihoods.
It also raised alleged violations of environmental and constitutional rights under Philippine law.
The law firm’s original announcement is available here:
Hausfeld: Shell Hit With Legal Action Over Climate Damages by Typhoon Odette Survivors
From a legal warning to High Court proceedingsThe Philippine case subsequently advanced beyond its initial pre-action stage.
In December 2025, the claimants filed proceedings in the High Court in London.
Contemporaneous reporting indicated that the claimant group had expanded to more than 100 people.
AFP’s 15 October 2026 report describes approximately 100 survivors pursuing the claim.
This chronology is important.
The original October 2025 announcement concerned 67 individuals sending a legal warning.
The subsequent proceedings involved a larger group.
The two figures refer to different stages and should not be confused.
The claimants are represented by Hausfeld, with support from campaign organisations and other advocates.
They allege that Shell’s historical greenhouse gas emissions materially contributed to anthropogenic climate change and that climate change intensified the severity or likelihood of Typhoon Odette.
They seek financial compensation for losses allegedly attributable to that contribution.
The proceedings also raise questions concerning Shell’s knowledge of climate risks and its historical communications about those risks.
The case remains contested.
It has not resulted in a finding that Shell is legally responsible for the destruction caused by the typhoon.
The allegations concerning Shell’s historical knowledgeOne particularly contentious element of the Philippine case concerns what Shell knew about climate change and when it knew it.
The claimants allege that Shell possessed substantial knowledge of the relationship between fossil fuel emissions and global warming long before climate change became a prominent issue in public policy.
They also allege that the company failed adequately to communicate the implications of that knowledge.
AFP interviewed Greg Lascelles, a lawyer at Hausfeld, who described Shell’s alleged history of misinformation as an aggravating factor in the case.
The claimants contend that Shell’s historical knowledge and conduct are relevant to establishing negligence under Philippine law.
They are also seeking to establish that the company’s commercial activities contributed to climate-related harm suffered by people far removed from Shell’s principal operating centres.
These allegations remain unproven in the proceedings.
Shell disputes the suggestion that it possessed unique knowledge of climate change.
The company argues that scientific understanding of climate change developed across governments, academic institutions, industry and wider society.
The legal distinction matters.
Evidence that a company was aware of climate risks does not, by itself, establish that the company committed an actionable wrong.
Equally, the existence of wider scientific knowledge does not automatically resolve allegations concerning particular corporate statements or omissions.
Those questions require examination of the relevant documents, applicable law and evidence.
Shell’s response: Climate litigation against individual companies is not the solutionShell has publicly addressed the Philippine proceedings.
On its official website, the company acknowledges the suffering experienced by people affected by Typhoon Odette.
However, Shell rejects the proposition that litigation against individual corporations is an effective solution to the global energy transition.
The company argues that the production and use of fossil fuels result from decades of decisions involving governments, industries, businesses and consumers.
It maintains that no single company can be held responsible for the worldwide energy system.
Shell also emphasises the continuing need for affordable and reliable energy.
Its position is that reducing global emissions requires coordinated government policy, technological innovation, changes in energy demand and investment across the economy.
Shell intends to defend the Philippine claim.
The company’s explanation is available directly from its own website:
Shell: What Kind of Climate Lawsuits Have Been Filed Against Shell?
This is an important source because it allows readers to examine the company’s position without relying entirely upon descriptions supplied by its opponents.
The central legal problem: Who caused the damage?Both cases confront an exceptionally difficult issue.
Climate change is a global process.
Greenhouse gases accumulate in the atmosphere.
Emissions produced in one country can contribute to changes affecting another country thousands of miles away.
That distinguishes climate litigation from many conventional pollution claims.
In an ordinary industrial pollution case, investigators may be able to identify a specific discharge from a particular facility and connect it with contamination of a nearby river or community.
Climate-related disasters are different.
The emissions contributing to global warming originate from millions of activities across numerous countries over many decades.
Individual storms and floods are influenced by atmospheric conditions, natural climate variability, geography, infrastructure, development patterns and social vulnerability.
The claimants therefore face a complex evidential task.
They must connect emissions associated with Shell to global warming.
They must connect global warming to changes in the relevant disaster’s probability or intensity.
And they must establish that those changes caused legally compensable damage under the law governing their claims.
That is a formidable challenge.
But the scientific evidence available to examine parts of that chain has improved substantially.
Researchers can now use observations and climate models to estimate how human-induced warming has changed the likelihood or intensity of certain types of extreme weather.
The legal question is whether and how those findings can support liability against a particular producer.
There is not yet a universally accepted judicial answer.
Why climate-attribution science mattersClimate-attribution research has become increasingly sophisticated.
Scientists can compare the probability of particular weather conditions in today’s warmer climate with estimates of their probability in a hypothetical climate without human-caused warming.
Depending upon the event and available evidence, such studies may identify measurable changes in intensity or likelihood.
The Brazilian flood research provides one example.
Comparable analyses have examined heatwaves, extreme rainfall, droughts and other events around the world.
However, the strength and precision of the findings vary considerably.
Some event types are much easier to assess than others.
Researchers also distinguish between the physical hazard and the disaster resulting from it.
A period of extreme rainfall may produce vastly different consequences depending upon land use, drainage systems, flood defences, population density and emergency preparedness.
The Brazilian floods illustrate that distinction.
Researchers identified climate change as an important contributor to rainfall intensity.
They also highlighted the roles of El Niño, inadequate infrastructure and social vulnerability.
These findings demonstrate why attributing a particular disaster’s total financial cost to climate change is not a straightforward exercise.
Nevertheless, attribution science provides increasingly relevant evidence for litigation.
It can help courts consider whether climate change materially contributed to particular environmental conditions.
The next question is how to attribute responsibility among potential defendants.
Shell’s historical share of emissionsBoth sets of claimants rely upon the scale of Shell’s historical fossil fuel activities.
The Carbon Majors research programme examines emissions associated with major fossil fuel and cement producers.
Its datasets attribute historical emissions to identifiable producing entities.
Much of the emissions associated with oil and gas producers arise when customers burn the products they sell.
These are commonly described as downstream or Scope 3 emissions.
Shell is among the major companies identified in historical emissions research.
AFP reports that the Brazilian claimants rely upon an estimate attributing approximately 2.02 per cent of global historical carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels and cement production to Shell.
But this number requires careful interpretation.
An emissions attribution is not automatically a legal allocation of responsibility.
It does not establish that Shell should bear precisely the same percentage of every climate-related loss.
The answer depends upon the applicable legal duties, causation standards, evidence and remedy being sought.
The claimants argue that historical emissions provide a scientifically grounded basis for assigning a share of responsibility.
Shell disputes the attempt to impose liability upon an individual company for the consequences of worldwide fossil fuel consumption.
The courts must decide how, if at all, the emissions data translate into legally enforceable obligations.
The geographical implications are extraordinaryThe two proceedings demonstrate how climate litigation is crossing national boundaries.
In Brazil, domestic prosecutors and an environmental organisation are pursuing a Shell subsidiary over damage suffered within Brazil.
In Britain, Philippine residents are bringing proceedings against Shell companies over damage suffered in the Philippines.
The legal foundations differ.
The Brazilian proceedings depend upon Brazilian law and the jurisdiction of Brazilian courts.
The Philippine claim is being pursued in England, while invoking alleged duties and rights arising under Philippine law.
That creates additional questions about jurisdiction, applicable law and remedies.
The mere fact that a multinational company is headquartered in one country does not automatically mean that its courts can resolve every claim arising elsewhere.
Nor does bringing proceedings in England establish that Philippine law imposes the liability alleged.
These matters may need to be considered in preliminary legal proceedings before any final determination of damages.
But the attempt itself is significant.
The claimants are seeking accountability through legal systems connected with Shell’s corporate presence rather than limiting proceedings to the countries where the disasters occurred.
That could influence the future development of transnational climate litigation.
Other industries may face similar claimsShell is not the only company confronting climate-related damages claims.
AFP also identifies proceedings involving other major industrial producers.
Swiss cement company Holcim faces litigation concerning the consequences of rising sea levels for residents of an Indonesian island.
Pakistani farmers have brought proceedings in Germany involving major industrial companies.
The cases differ in their legal foundations and factual circumstances.
They should not be treated as interchangeable.
But they demonstrate a common development.
Claimants are attempting to recover compensation for specific climate-related harm from companies whose historical emissions can be estimated.
Noah Walker-Crawford, a researcher at the Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment at the London School of Economics, described the cases to AFP as tests of whether such a legal strategy is viable.
His assessment is important.
These proceedings are not simply attempts to obtain compensation in two isolated disputes.
They may also establish whether comparable claims can proceed against other major industrial producers.
Success could encourage additional litigation.
Failure could reveal important limits within existing legal frameworks.
Either outcome would be significant.
COMMENTARY: The fossil fuel industry’s next legal frontierShell has faced environmental litigation for decades.
The Niger Delta has generated numerous legal disputes concerning pollution, environmental remediation and alleged responsibility for damage to communities.
The company’s Sakhalin operations have been the subject of extensive environmental controversy and regulatory action.
More recently, Shell has faced litigation concerning greenhouse gas emissions and its energy transition strategy.
But the Brazilian and Philippine cases represent a further development.
The claimants are not merely asking courts to order cleaner operations or lower future emissions.
They are seeking compensation for specific disasters that have already occurred.
That distinction is fundamental.
The litigation attempts to connect historical industrial emissions with present-day human losses.
The consequences could be profound if courts accept the proposed legal reasoning.
A company might face claims arising from climate-related events far beyond the countries in which it operates.
Potential liability could reflect decades of accumulated emissions rather than only current operating practices.
And claimants could seek compensation for injuries, lost property and destroyed livelihoods.
However, the difficulties are substantial.
Climate change is a collective global phenomenon.
Governments have encouraged and regulated fossil fuel production.
Industries and consumers have depended upon those fuels.
Many companies have contributed to emissions.
Determining how responsibility should be distributed requires more than identifying a major historical producer.
It requires a defensible legal framework.
That is why the outcome of these cases remains uncertain.
A difficult question for shareholdersFor Shell shareholders, this emerging category of litigation deserves attention.
Traditional environmental liabilities can sometimes be estimated by reference to identifiable incidents, remediation costs or settlements.
Claims for climate-related damage may be considerably harder to quantify.
The scale of possible exposure depends upon whether courts accept the underlying legal theories and what limits they impose.
The Brazilian claim seeks approximately $108 million.
The Philippine claim seeks damages that have not been specified publicly in the same way.
Those figures cannot presently be used to calculate Shell’s overall future exposure.
Nor would it be reasonable to assume that comparable claims will necessarily succeed.
But shareholders have an interest in understanding whether such litigation could become a material financial risk.
They are also entitled to expect accurate disclosure of significant proceedings and candid discussion of relevant uncertainties.
Shell’s position that global climate change requires collective action is an important part of the debate.
It does not, however, eliminate the need to examine individual claims on their legal and evidential merits.
The historical knowledge questionOne aspect of the Philippine proceedings also connects with an important theme running through the independent Shell archive.
What did senior corporate management know about the risks associated with its activities?
When was that knowledge acquired?
And how did the company communicate those risks?
The Philippine claimants allege that Shell understood important aspects of climate change decades ago.
They also challenge aspects of the company’s historical public communications.
The Brazilian proceedings reportedly cite a Shell document from 1986 recognising the contribution of fossil fuels to greenhouse gas emissions and global warming.
Such documents may be relevant to allegations concerning knowledge, foreseeability and corporate conduct.
But their legal significance cannot be assumed.
A contemporaneous internal report can establish that particular information was available within a company.
It does not automatically establish that later statements were deliberately misleading.
Nor does it, without further evidence, prove the elements of negligence or liability for a specific disaster.
The distinction between documentary knowledge and legal wrongdoing is essential.
The independent Shell archive has long preserved internal correspondence and historical corporate records.
The value of such material lies in enabling readers to distinguish what documents actually establish from what commentators or litigants infer.
That same standard should apply here.
The importance of reporting Shell’s defenceThere is also a responsibility to present Shell’s position fairly.
The company rejects the proposition that individual corporate litigation offers an effective solution to global climate change.
It emphasises the continuing demand for fossil fuels and the need for coordinated policies across governments, industries and consumers.
Those arguments are relevant.
A legal system must avoid assigning responsibility without a proper basis in law and evidence.
But claimants are equally entitled to bring proceedings where they believe their rights have been violated.
They are entitled to present scientific evidence and arguments concerning corporate responsibility.
The courts must evaluate those competing positions.
The objective of independent reporting should not be to declare liability before the evidence has been tested.
It should be to explain the facts, identify the disputed issues and preserve the documentary record.
That is particularly important when the subject concerns catastrophic human losses and potentially enormous corporate liabilities.
Conclusion: Can a percentage of climate damage become a legal debt?The two Shell lawsuits represent an important stage in the development of climate litigation.
In Brazil, prosecutors and an environmental organisation are attempting to translate climate-attribution research and historical emissions estimates into a claim for approximately $108 million.
In Britain, survivors of Typhoon Odette are pursuing compensation for personal and economic losses they allege were intensified by climate change associated with Shell’s historical fossil fuel activities.
Both cases raise difficult questions.
Can a company’s historical emissions be connected to a particular disaster with sufficient precision?
Does applicable law recognise a duty capable of supporting the claim?
Can courts determine what proportion of the resulting harm should be attributed to an individual company?
And how should responsibility be allocated when emissions arise from a worldwide energy system involving governments, businesses and consumers?
The scientific and legal questions are related.
But they are not identical.
A scientific attribution study may help establish how climate change affected a disaster.
It cannot, without an applicable legal framework, determine corporate liability.
The courts must make that determination.
For Shell, the significance is that climate litigation is moving beyond demands for future emissions reductions towards claims for compensation for disasters that have already destroyed lives, homes and livelihoods.
For the claimants, the cases offer a possible route to accountability.
For Shell, they present complex legal challenges that the company intends to defend.
For shareholders, they introduce another category of potential financial and reputational risk.
And for the wider fossil fuel industry, they may help establish whether climate-attribution science can underpin legally enforceable claims for disaster losses.
The outcomes remain uncertain.
But the legal questions are now before the courts.
Principal documentary and reporting sources1. Agence France-Presse — 15 October 2026
Why Is Shell Facing Lawsuits Over Climate Disasters in Brazil and the Philippines?
The immediate basis for this article, including interviews with Brazilian and Philippine legal representatives and discussion of the developing climate-attribution strategy.
2. Barron’s — 15 October 2026
Why Is Shell Facing Lawsuits Over Climate Disasters in Brazil and the Philippines?
Republication of the AFP investigation by Ivan Couronne.
3. Hausfeld — 23 October 2025
Shell Hit With Legal Action Over Climate Damages by Typhoon Odette Survivors
The claimants’ legal representatives explain the original Letter Before Action, the losses alleged and the legal basis being advanced.
4. Hausfeld — December 2025
Survivors of Deadly Philippines Super Typhoon Take Shell to Court Over Climate Harms
Details of the commencement of High Court proceedings following the October legal notice.
5. Shell plc — Corporate Position
What Kind of Climate Lawsuits Have Been Filed Against Shell?
Shell’s published account of the Philippine case and its defence of its position in climate-related litigation.
6. AFP — 10 October 2026
Brazil Prosecutors Sue Shell for $108 Million Over Deadly 2024 Floods
Contemporaneous reporting of the Brazilian action.
7. World Weather Attribution — June 2024
Climate Change, El Niño and Infrastructure Failures Behind Massive Floods in Southern Brazil
Scientific assessment of the role of climate change in the rainfall and the additional importance of natural variability and infrastructure vulnerability.
8. npj Natural Hazards — 2026
Peer-reviewed scientific study estimating the influence of anthropogenic climate change on the probability and intensity of the extreme rainfall.
9. The Independent — 17 December 2025
Survivors Sue Shell in Landmark Case Over Deadly Typhoon in Philippines
Contemporaneous reporting of the Philippine High Court proceedings and accounts from affected communities.
10. RoyalDutchShellPlc.com — 10 October 2026
Our earlier coverage of the Brazilian proceedings.
Editorial and legal disclaimerThis article distinguishes authenticated corporate statements, scientific studies, contemporary journalism, claimants’ allegations and editorial commentary.
The Brazilian and Philippine proceedings remain contested. Neither has established that Shell is legally liable for the disasters concerned.
Scientific findings concerning the contribution of human-induced climate change to extreme weather do not automatically establish the legal responsibility of an individual fossil fuel producer for particular losses.
Historical emissions estimates are not judicial determinations of liability.
Allegations concerning Shell’s historical knowledge, communications and conduct are attributed to the claimants and have not been treated as proven findings of wrongdoing.
Shell’s publicly stated defence is included.
The website’s general disclaimer also applies.
Shell Faces Climate Disaster Claims on Two Continents — From Brazil’s Deadly Floods to the Philippines’ Devastating Typhoon was first posted on October 15, 2026 at 4:20 pm.©2018 "Royal Dutch Shell Plc .com". Use of this feed is for personal non-commercial use only. If you are not reading this article in your feed reader, then the site is guilty of copyright infringement. Please contact me at john@shellnews.net
Whale of the Month: Humpback Whales
I enjoyed talking about narwhals last month. What whale are we talking about this time?
This time we’re diving into one of my personal favorites: the humpback.
Wait, we usually talk about more obscure whales. Aren’t humpbacks kind of mainstream?
That’s true, but mainstream doesn’t mean boring. Humpbacks embody cetacean charisma. In addition to their good looks, they’re champion swimmers — they’re constantly observed leaping almost entirely out of the water in giant, thunderous breaches.
They’re also icons of conservation efforts; pop-culture superstars; and the subjects of amazing new science. Humpbacks are constantly in the news, too. One was recently spotted in a California river miles away from the ocean. Another made worldwide headlines for a very emotional display of grief after the loss of her calf.
Oh, that’s sad.
Yeah, but seeing that grief helps humans understand humpbacks even better — and maybe love them even more.
So where do they get the name “humpback”? I’ve seen photos — their backs don’t look all that humpy.
That’s true. But the name comes from those famous breaches and a distinct hump that forms on their backs when they arch to dive deep into the water.
Photo by Chinh Le Duc on UnsplashThat dive is a great opportunity to see one of humpbacks’ most beloved features: their tail flukes, which display unique black-and-white patterns on the underside. Photo-identification databases of these tail patterns allow scientists to track individual humpbacks across thousands of miles and throughout their decades-long lifespans. (Writer and whale fan Christopher Moore based an entire novel on those patterns.)
Getting back to their nomenclature, their scientific name, Megaptera novaeangliae, means “big-winged New Englander” and refers to their gigantic, wing-like pectoral flippers, which can grow up to 16 feet long — about a third of their total body length.
That must help them swim. Don’t they hold some kind of record for migrating?
You’ve been doing some reading in between these discussions! Good for you. Yes, humpback whales complete some of the longest migrations of any mammal on Earth. Each population has a different migratory path, but generally speaking they spend their summers in chilly, nutrient-rich polar waters where they gorge on krill and tiny fish — often using air bubbles to condense their prey into one location for easy pickings. Once suitably fattened up, they head north — a journey of several thousand miles to warm tropical waters near the equator, where they mate and give birth. They barely eat anything during the migration or their winter breeding season and live off their thick blubber stores.
That sounds like an intense diet plan. What else makes them famous?
Their music. Male humpbacks are known for their complex underwater “songs” — elaborate arrangements of moans, howls, and cries arranged in patterns that can last for hours. The songs evolve over time, with new “remixes” spreading across entire whale populations.
WhaleTrustMaui · Humpback Whale Song Recorded off the Coast of Maui in 2004Those vocalizations are arguably one of the reasons we still have humpbacks. The 1970 album Songs of the Humpback Whale, recorded by bio-acoustician Roger Payne, sold more than 100,000 copies (about the same as David Bowie’s The Man Who Saved the World the same year) and helped kick off the global “Save the Whales” movement — not to mention my own fascination with whales. I heard part of the album for the first time in 1979 when an issue of National Geographic magazine included an excerpt on flexi-disc — a record printed on flexible plastic instead of pressed on vinyl. I must have listened to it a thousand times over the next couple of years.
Cool. I’ll have to look for a copy of that issue on eBay. How are humpbacks doing these days? They were heavily hunted, right?
Extremely heavily. Commercial whaling reduced global humpback populations by an estimated 90% before the international whaling moratorium took effect in 1986.
But 40 years later, humpbacks are often celebrated as one of conservation’s greatest success stories and the species overall is classified as “least concern” by the IUCN, with an estimated adult population of 84,000 and rising.
Photo by Rod Long on UnsplashIt all depends on where humpbacks live, of course, but many populations have rebounded dramatically thanks to international protections (and U.S. protections under the Endangered Species Act and the Marine Mammal Protection Act). One of the most exciting population recoveries is taking place off the coast of Brazil, where they’d all but disappeared four decades ago. Another unexpected site is the waters off the coast of New York City, where the nonprofit Gotham Whale recently documented 500 humpbacks, up from just 10-30 in the area a decade ago.
There’s a “but” coming, isn’t there?
You know me (and the world) too well. Not all populations have recovered equally. Specific distinct population segments — like the Arabian Sea and Oceania populations — remain endangered. (Newly published research also suggests the Arabian humpbacks may be a unique subspecies with low genetic diversity.)
Even for recovering populations, modern ocean life is a minefield. Humpbacks face constant threats from entanglements in commercial fishing gear and vessel strikes. On top of that, climate change is altering marine food webs, shifting krill distributions, and forcing whales to feed in new areas — where they become even more vulnerable to ship traffic. It’s a nasty circle.
Krill, climate, and humpbacks are intricately linked. A recent study found that a marine heatwave in the northeastern Pacific Ocean from 2013-2016 caused krill and small fish populations to crash — which then caused a decline in humpback populations in Hawaiʻi.
More recently a few starved and emaciated whales have washed ashore in places like Maine and Oregon. Is that a portent of things to come? I’m a bit worried.
So what can people do to help ensure humpbacks keep swimming, feeding, and breaching?
A few key things: If you’re ever out on a boat or taking a whale-watching tour (which I encourage you to do), make sure the operator follows responsible viewing guidelines and keeps a safe distance.
We can also support policy efforts that demand modifications in fisheries gear, such as ropeless fishing technology to eliminate dangerous entanglements like one that mangled a humpback’s jaw this summer. We also need to advocate for reducing boat noise in key migration corridors. A recent study found that engine noise reduced scientists’ ability to record humpback calls by 40-45%. If we can’t hear them, it’s a safe bet to assume they can’t hear themselves.
And, as with other species, supporting broader marine habitat protection and climate action helps safeguard the food and ocean ecosystems humpbacks rely on.
Got it. So what whale are we tackling next month?
That’s the toughest question you ask me each month. There are so many to choose from, including some species that are in the news. I have a few ideas, but anyone reading this can send their own favorites to me at jplatt@therevelator.org.
Republish this article for free! Read our reprint policy. Previously in The Revelator:Songs Whales Sing: The Peculiar History of Commercial Whaling
The post Whale of the Month: Humpback Whales appeared first on The Revelator.
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Separately, American Electric Power expects to spend about $4 billion on a 702-MW Bloom Energy fuel cell project in Wyoming that is under contract to Google.
EA issues revised Burniston fracking assessment
The Environment Agency (EA) has amended its much-criticised assessment of gas drilling and lower-volume fracking at Burniston in North Yorkshire.
The EA has corrected what it described as “drafting errors” in two key documents on an environmental permit.
It has now acknowledged “a small number of minor typographical errors and inconsistencies” and published revised versions.
However, analysis by DrillOrDrop has identified at least 58 changes in the updated draft decision document and more than 20 in the draft permit.
Many other local concerns about the documents remain.
The permit process at Burniston is the subject of an official complaint against the EA. The documents have also been strongly criticised by residents and campaigners, the local action group, Frack Free Coastal Communities, and Burniston Parish Council.
The EA was accused of inaccurate, inconsistent, contradictory and missing information. It was urged to withdraw its draft decision to approve the permit.
But the EA said its technical assessment was unchanged, despite the errors in the original documents.
Extract from Environment Agency website on Burniston environmental permitDrillOrDrop will report separately on reaction to the revised permit documents. The environmental permit is a separate process from planning permission, which was formally refused for the Burniston proposal in May 2026.
ChangesDrillOrDrop used the EA’s list of changes (p3) to the 92-page draft decision document. We found:
- At least 50 unique amendments
- At least a third of pages (30) had amendments
- Two pages each had at least five changes and another page had at least four
- One section comprising five-and-a-half pages had at least15 amendments
In the 30-page draft permit, again using the EA’s list of changes, we found:
- At least 20 unique amendments
- At least a third of pages had amendments (10)
- One page had four changes, all in one section
- Another two pages each had three changes
The EA’s lists of changes refer to additional amendments to key terms that had been made throughout both the draft decision document and draft permit.
These, and many of the listed amendments, are not always easy to find in the revised versions. We found:
- Page numbers in the list of changes did not always match the pages in the new draft decision document
- Some amended paragraphs were numbered in the list but not in the document
- Some terms listed as amended throughout the draft decision document appeared in different forms in the list and the original document
- Some terms listed as amended throughout the draft decision document did not appear in searches of the original
Some of the amendments were basic corrections. These include the use of the term “oil-based” fracturing fluid and the naming of the target rock formation as within the Kirkham Abbey Formation.
Other amendments were more complicated and potentially contentious, particularly about the proposed lower-volume fracking operation.
FrackingThe term fracking appeared in the EA text in the original draft decision document but was removed from this section in the revised version.
“Fracking” has been used by residents, at least once by the would-be Burniston operator Europa Oil & Gas and by the EA in the permitting process for another site. A legal opinion by a KC has confirmed that the Burniston operation qualified as fracking.
The revised draft decision document now widely refers to the proposed operation as proppant squeeze. But most references in the document to “proppant fluid” have been replaced with “hydraulic fracture fluid”. A new definition has been added for “carrier fluid”, also called hydraulic fracture fluid.
The EA’s revised draft decision document continues to state that a “small” volume of hydraulic fracture fluid would be used at Burniston. We previously asked the EA to define “small”. It said “small” would be removed from the revised document.
The draft decision document also retains the statement that high -volume associated hydraulic fracturing, currently subject to a moratorium in England, “typically involves the injection of thousands of cubic meters of fluid”.
The EA does not give an example of a fracking site using this volume of fluid.
The most recent high-volume fracks in England were at Preston New Road in Lancashire in 2018 and 2019. Both operations induced multiple earthquakes. The 2019 fracks, which led to the moratorium, used a total of 2,485m3 of fluid in seven fracking stages, with an average volume of 354m3 per stage.
Europa Oil & Gas has said it intends to use 300m3-500m3 per stage (p25) with up to four stages. This would potentially use a total volume of 2,000m3.
Extended consultationThe EA has said “In the interests of transparency and openness” it has extended the consultation until 21 October 2026.
But DrillOrDrop understands local organisations are calling for more time to review the updated documents. We will report on any further change to the consultation period and to reaction to the EA’s revisions.
Best Buy pilots battery-powered vehicles at California distribution sites
The retailer deployed electric yard switchers as part of its efforts to curb emissions and will gauge future deployment potential across its supply chain, it said.
Grow EKY Loan Fund: Supporting the Businesses Our Communities Depend On
Strong communities are built on essential services—the businesses that feed families, care for children, build homes, and help neighborhoods recover in times of crisis. Yet, these vital industries often face barriers when it comes to accessing flexible, affordable capital.
That’s why we’re introducing the Grow EKY Fund, a financing initiative and support program designed to strengthen the businesses our communities rely on every day.
This fund is specifically focused on businesses driving impact in four key areas:
- Housing & skilled trades
- Food access
- Childcare
- Disaster resiliency.
From neighborhood grocers and farmers to daycare providers, plumbers, electricians, and contractors, these are the businesses that keep communities functioning and growing. They are also critical to long-term stability, economic opportunity, and recovery.
In addition to flexible financing with reduced fees, businesses supported through the fund can also access personalized, one-on-one guidance from experienced business coaches and industry experts. Whether it’s refining a business plan, improving financial management, navigating growth challenges, or preparing for unexpected disruptions, this hands-on support is designed to meet businesses where they are. Grow EKY businesses and organizations can also receive free energy assessments & five free hours of technical assistance for solar and efficiency upgrades.
By pairing funding with expert support, we’re investing in both the immediate needs and the future resilience of the businesses that keep our communities strong.
Whether you’re launching, expanding, or adapting your business or nonprofit, the Grow EKY Fund is here to help you grow what matters most. Together, we can make our communities stronger, healthier, and more connected.
Learn more at mtassociation.org/grow
The post Grow EKY Loan Fund: Supporting the Businesses Our Communities Depend On appeared first on Mountain Association.
Reliability standards for AI data centers, crypto miners move closer to adoption
The proposed rules must still be approved by NERC’s board and federal regulators. As written, they would apply to computational loads of 50 MW or more connected at voltage levels of at least 100 kV.
Could dirty, salty wastewater quench data center thirst?
Data centers have become a major flashpoint as midterm elections near in the United States. Besides their intensive energy use, they are drawing public ire for use of freshwater for to cool data centers.
But researchers at the University of Texas at Austin have an idea that could alleviate the stress on local freshwater resources. They propose using waste water from the oil and gas industry. Today’s desalination technologies could clean up dirty and salty water to produce clean-enough water for data center cooling needs, the team shows in a paper published in the journal Water Research.
“We’re not waiting for a futuristic technology to come along and solve this problem for us,” said mechanical engineering professor Vaibhav Bahadur in a press release. “We can solve parts of this problem with the technology we already have; there’s just a cost to it.”
Data centers underpin our modern digital economy. But they are highly energy-intensive. Their power needs are “equivalent to the electrical power draw of 1000 US households going into a computing unit the size of a bookshelf,” the team writes in the paper.
The heat this generates requires immense amounts of water for cooling. Data centers can consume millions of gallons of water a day. Meanwhile, the Permian Basin in West Texas produces about 8 billion gallons of waste water per day during oil and gas extraction. And “right now this water is transported over long distances and injected underground,” Bahadur said.
.IRPP_ruby , .IRPP_ruby .postImageUrl , .IRPP_ruby .centered-text-area {height: auto;position: relative;}.IRPP_ruby , .IRPP_ruby:hover , .IRPP_ruby:visited , .IRPP_ruby:active {border:0!important;}.IRPP_ruby .clearfix:after {content: "";display: table;clear: both;}.IRPP_ruby {display: block;transition: background-color 250ms;webkit-transition: background-color 250ms;width: 100%;opacity: 1;transition: opacity 250ms;webkit-transition: opacity 250ms;background-color: #eaeaea;}.IRPP_ruby:active , .IRPP_ruby:hover {opacity: 1;transition: opacity 250ms;webkit-transition: opacity 250ms;background-color: inherit;}.IRPP_ruby .postImageUrl {background-position: center;background-size: cover;float: left;margin: 0;padding: 0;width: 31.59%;position: absolute;top: 0;bottom: 0;}.IRPP_ruby .centered-text-area {float: right;width: 65.65%;padding:0;margin:0;}.IRPP_ruby .centered-text {display: table;height: 130px;left: 0;top: 0;padding:0;margin:0;padding-top: 20px;padding-bottom: 20px;}.IRPP_ruby .IRPP_ruby-content {display: table-cell;margin: 0;padding: 0 74px 0 0px;position: relative;vertical-align: middle;width: 100%;}.IRPP_ruby .ctaText {border-bottom: 0 solid #fff;color: #0099cc;font-size: 14px;font-weight: bold;letter-spacing: normal;margin: 0;padding: 0;font-family:'Arial';}.IRPP_ruby .postTitle {color: #000000;font-size: 16px;font-weight: 600;letter-spacing: normal;margin: 0;padding: 0;font-family:'Arial';}.IRPP_ruby .ctaButton {background: url(https://www.anthropocenemagazine.org/wp-content/plugins/intelly-related-posts-pro/assets/images/next-arrow.png)no-repeat;background-color: #afb4b6;background-position: center;display: inline-block;height: 100%;width: 54px;margin-left: 10px;position: absolute;bottom:0;right: 0;top: 0;}.IRPP_ruby:after {content: "";display: block;clear: both;}Recommended Reading:Scientists made an ultra-black wool. And it turns saltwater into drinking water
So why not put this water to cooling use at data centers? Besides the quantity, the quality of the water is also important. Freshwater needs to have less than 500 parts per million of dissolved solids.
The UT Austin team looked at how data centers could produce such relatively clean water using desalination. And they analyzed how desalination treatment choice influences cost and environmental impact.
They modeled the cost and energy trade-offs of treating various saline water sources, from mildly brackish groundwater to the much saltier water produced during oil and gas drilling. And they focused on two leading desalination technologies. One, called reverse osmosis, pushes water through membranes that block salt and impurities. The other is a heat-driven process, where water is evaporated, leaving impurities behind, and then the clean vapor is condensed and collected.
The team evaluated three data center deployment case studies. The model captured the “combined effect of cooling technique, local saline water conditions, geographic water stress, and brine disposal strategy on water availability,” they write.
Their results show that a project in Longview, Texas, which uses brackish groundwater treated via reverse osmosis came out with the lowest local water-stress score of the three. But the finding is much more general. Even the most energy-intensive desalination option consumed a fraction of a data center’s total energy demand.
Source: Vishnu Sree Shanthanu Katakam et al. System-scale design and analysis of desalination systems for meeting water needs of data centers. Water Research, 2026.
Image: ©Anthropocene Magazine
Spanish giant wins contracts for transmission projects to connect offshore and onshore renewables
Spanish energy giant snags two major transmission contracts at opposite ends of Australia – one connecting offshore wind to the grid another to accommodate 2.3 GW of new solar and wind.
The post Spanish giant wins contracts for transmission projects to connect offshore and onshore renewables appeared first on Renew Economy.
Canada’s $430M for skilled trades training must go towards building tomorrow’s workforce
A new report just busted another myth about heat pumps
You may have heard by now that heat pumps — which transfer warmth from outdoor air to an indoor space, instead of generating it like a furnace — don’t work when it gets really cold out. That’s incorrect, as models designed for frigid climes can keep you toasty even in the dead of winter. Don’t believe me? Look no further than the Nordic countries, which have fully committed to them despite the region’s not-exactly-balmy winters.
OK, so heat pumps are more efficient than ever, which is why Americans seem to be warming up to the appliances. But surely, since they’re electric, switching to them en masse will push the grid to collapse? That’s also false. A new report from the energy thinktank RMI finds that thanks to “headroom” in the grid during the winter months, three-quarters of U.S. homes — some 109 million — could adopt the technology, no problem. That would significantly reduce greenhouse gas emissions and slash electric bills by over 20 percent in some states.
“A substantial number of homes can upgrade to heat pumps within the headroom today,” said Ryan Shea, a manager in the organization’s buildings team. “We’d be better utilizing the grid capacity that’s already there, that essentially spreads those costs across more kilowatt-hours, and everyone benefits with a lower electricity rate.”
What is this headroom, exactly? It’s the difference between the grid’s generation capacity and demand in winter. Typically, the need for electricity is highest in the summer, when millions of air conditioners gobble tremendous amounts of power. In the winter, many folks instead heat their homes with gas furnaces, so they’re getting that energy elsewhere, relieving strain on the grid. This means that during colder months, there’s additional capacity to provide power.
“That’s where we see moving to heat pumps, adding that electrical load in the winter, where there is all that available grid capacity, is a way to add load to the grid without needing to build it out more,” Shea said. In other words, keeping 109 million heat pumps running through the winter wouldn’t require, say, heaps of new gas-fired power plants.
This buffer, though, isn’t the same state to state or region to region. For one, climates are different: In Phoenix, summers are way hotter than in Boston, requiring more AC, with much milder winters, requiring less heating. How local utilities generate electricity matters, too. Gas power plants can run year-round, but with more solar coming online, generation dips in the winter as the days grow shorter. To compensate for this, utilities are building sprawling battery farms to store energy, and experimenting with using electric vehicles as a vast network of backup power. (They’re even using Earth itself as a giant battery for longer-duration storage.) Either way, renewables and batteries are combining to make the grid more reliable than it is with fossil fuels, and much more flexible no matter the time of year, further reducing costs for ratepayers.
Read Next The US may be hitting a tipping point for heat pumps Matt SimonThe ultimate goal is for heat pumps to replace fossil fuels as the dominant way of warming and cooling our homes. (Yes, heat pumps can cool a space by transferring warmth from inside to outside.) But they also need to replace electric resistance heating, like space heaters. These appliances are especially common in the Pacific Northwest and the Southeast, which endure less punishing winters than the Northeast. These giant toasters are, of course, a better option than a gas furnace, as they’re inherently more efficient and don’t poison homes. But heat pumps are around three to four times more efficient, meaning they require less electricity and therefore demand less from the grid. This could theoretically save households switching from resistance heating an average of $1,530 a year, according to RMI’s previous research.
So how can the U.S. accelerate its shift to heat pumps? For one, AC units that go kaput should be replaced with heat pumps. States can provide rebates to encourage people to make the switch. When a state puts its collective mind to it, the transition can happen faster than you think: Maine (again, another place not known for comfortable winters) blew past its goal of installing 100,000 heat pumps two years ahead of schedule. Oddly enough, simply building more apartments — tackling the housing crisis is a rare bit of agreement between Democrats and Republicans — is a sneaky way to get more heat pumps into units.
Instead of crashing the grid, then, heat pumps working in all American climates (even Alaska) will reduce electricity costs for owners — and rates overall — while making the system as a whole more flexible. As affordability dominates the conversation in American politics, the heat pump could well emerge as a superstar, a rare feat for an appliance. “We really think there’s a reason to include heat pumps within those affordability plans,” Shea said, “and try to really establish some heat pump installation goals.”
This story was originally published by Grist with the headline A new report just busted another myth about heat pumps on Oct 15, 2026.
Spring Radio: Education workers and the fight for decent public education
In the second episode of our mini-series on organized labour, Spring Radio takes a look at how some of the lessons learned in the previous...
The post Spring Radio: Education workers and the fight for decent public education first appeared on Spring.
Arctic Wildlife Research Suffers as Geopolitical Competition Grows
As national security and the hunt for rare minerals come to dominate Arctic agendas, governments are slashing support for wildlife research. Scientists say the loss of monitoring is unprecedented and comes as climate change dramatically reshapes life in the Far North.
Brazil’s election could determine the fate of the Amazon
Brazilians filling out presidential ballots earlier this month saw three-term incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva pitted against Senator Flávio Bolsonaro. Environmental observers saw something else: a referendum on the future of the Amazon rainforest.
“We are very serious about the risks for the Amazon if Flávio wins the election, because he is a climate denier,” said Carlos Nobre, a climate scientist currently at the University of São Paulo’s Institute for Advanced Studies. “If this candidate is elected, certainly deforestation in the Amazon will increase. We are in a very serious situation.”
Flávio Bolsonaro, son of imprisoned former president Jair Bolsonaro, is campaigning on an agribusiness-friendly, deregulatory agenda. In the first round of voting, he finished 2.2 million votes ahead of Lula. With neither candidate securing the requisite 50 percent needed to be declared the winner outright, the two will head to a runoff on October 25.
President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, left, and Senator and presidential candidate Flávio Bolsonaro in October 2026. Pablo Porciuncula / Mauro Pimentel / AFP vai Getty ImagesTaken at face value, Bolsonaro and Lula would appear to have similar rainforest policies. Lula promises net-zero deforestation by 2030; Bolsonaro promises zero illegal deforestation by 2029. Legal is the operative term. Bolsonaro’s platform argues for an “agile, modern” environmental licensing process that “will no longer serve as a way to block those seeking to invest and create jobs.”
Monica de Bolle, an economist at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, argues a Bolsonaro win would amount to a repeat of his father’s term, which saw an increase in clearing, a plummeting of environmental infraction notices, and a near doubling of carbon emissions in Amazonia in 2019 and 2020, compared to the average levels between 2010 and 2018.
Jair Bolsonaro “basically dismantled the enforcement structure,” de Bolle said. “Which is, I think, what would likely happen again.”
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Try refreshing the page.";} function loadD3(){return new Promise(function(res,rej){ var s=document.createElement("script"),page=window.d3,mine,trap=false; try{Object.defineProperty(window,"d3",{configurable:true,enumerable:true, get:function(){return document.currentScript===s?mine:page;}, set:function(v){if(document.currentScript===s)mine=v;else page=v;}});trap=true;} catch(e){window.d3=undefined;} function settle(){if(trap){delete window.d3;if(page!==undefined)window.d3=page;}else{mine=window.d3;window.d3=page;}} s.src="https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/d3/7.8.5/d3.min.js";s.integrity="sha384-su5kReKyYlIFrI62mbQRKXHzFobMa7BHp1cK6julLPbnYcCW9NIZKJiTODjLPeDh";s.crossOrigin="anonymous";s.async=true; s.onload=function(){settle();if(mine?mine.stack:!1)res(Object.assign({},mine));else rej(new Error("d3 did not load"));}; s.onerror=function(e){settle();rej(e);}; document.head.appendChild(s);});} function go(){ if(window.d3?window.d3.stack?/^7\./.test(window.d3.version?window.d3.version:""):!1:!1){run(window.d3);return;} if(!window.__gvD3)window.__gvD3=loadD3(); window.__gvD3.then(run,fail); } if(document.readyState==="loading")document.addEventListener("DOMContentLoaded",go);else go(); })();Omnipresent but non-voting in the coming election is the Amazon itself, which stands at the edge of farm country and stores something on the order of 175 billion metric tons of carbon, equivalent to roughly 15 years of global carbon dioxide emissions. The planet’s largest tropical rainforest, the Amazon is big enough to make its own weather: Water drawn up by its trees ultimately accounts for up to half of the region’s rainfall.
Affronting the forest is a menagerie of harms, from drought to fire and logging to clear-cuts. And while the Brazilian Forest Code permits landowners to cut up to 20 percent of their Amazon properties, the monitoring network MapBiomas recently estimated that 97 percent of Amazon land clearing in 2025 showed signs of illegality.
An aerial view of an illegal mining area at Tapajos Environmental Protection Area in the Amazon rainforest, in southwestern Para State, Brazil, in May 2026. Evaristo Sa / AFP via Getty ImagesUnder Lula’s current term, clearing rates in the Amazon have fallen every year. If Brazil returned to the elder Bolsonaro’s deforestation pace, the rainforest would lose about 17,600 square miles over the next four years, versus about 8,900 square miles at the 2025 rate: a difference in landmass approximately the size of Belize.
The first-round election results suggest agricultural interests likely played a role in Bolsonaro’s strong performance. Lula lost vote share in almost every municipality in the country relative to his 2022 results. But in municipalities where agriculture accounts for more than half of the local economy, his vote share fell by nearly 8 points: triple his loss in non-agricultural areas.
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For decades, forest and climate scientists have warned of a brutal tipping point: Cut enough of the forest down and the water cycle won’t be strong enough to sustain a rainforest ecosystem. Instead, the area would morph into savanna and degraded forest — causing a net release of planet-warming carbon and depriving nearby soybean farms of rain.
The actual tipping point in question is multi-causal and difficult to estimate, but the most frequently quoted deforestation threshold is 20 to 25 percent clearing across Amazonia, a range first suggested in 2018 by Nobre and U.S. conservation biologist Thomas Lovejoy. The duo argued that “negative synergies between deforestation, climate change, and widespread use of fire” would send the forest into a feedback loop once this threshold is passed. A Nature study published in May of this year estimated the tipping-point range to be closer to 22 to 28 percent clearing when paired with the 1.5 to 1.9 degrees Celsius (2.7 to 3.4 degrees Fahrenheit) of global warming the world is likely to experience by mid-century.
About 18 percent of the Amazon — which spans nine countries — and 22 percent of the Brazilian Amazon have already been cleared.
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Conversely, if Lula delivered on his pledge of net-zero deforestation by the early 2030s, Wunderling argues runaway feedback might yet be avoided. While climate change is a global process requiring global coordination, deforestation is “the lever that can be pulled back more easily,” he said.
The late 2030s is beyond the term covered by this election cycle, and the exact science of the tipping point remains uncertain. But the result of this election could still set the Amazon rainforest on its ultimate path. Ronaldo Christofoletti, an oceanographer at the Federal University of São Paulo, likened the situation to insuring a vehicle. “Why do I pay the insurance? Because an accident can happen. When? I don’t know.”
For Christofoletti, the electoral stakes are all about managing this uncertainty. “Do not expect magic from scientists,” he said. “Do trust that the tipping point is getting closer.”
The Bolsonaro campaign did not respond to a request for comment.
In the meantime, organized agribusiness is pushing for Bolsonaro in the runoff election. The Parliamentary Agricultural Front, Brazil’s primary agribusiness lobby, recently endorsed Flávio Bolsonaro, who has promised that the caucus will choose his minister of agriculture.
Even if Bolsonaro doesn’t win the October 25 runoff, agribusiness may already have done so. On October 4, Bolsonaro’s party won 121 House seats, the most any party has held since the Brazilian Constitution was promulgated in 1988. An analysis by the Brazilian Amazon-based news platform Sumaúma suggests that half of the incoming House has voted to loosen environmental licensing and limit Indigenous land claims.
For agribusiness, that means the currently off-limits may soon be in play. “Even if Lula gets reelected,” said de Bolle, “he’s going to be very weak.”
This story was originally published by Grist with the headline Brazil’s election could determine the fate of the Amazon on Oct 15, 2026.
Magic: The Gathering draws a bad hand with El Niño
On a Saturday morning in September, the game shop Dice Dojo was packed. Players sat shoulder-to-shoulder at tables lining the far North Side Chicago shop with board games stacked from floor to ceiling and a giant yellow Pikachu on the wall. They were eagerly waiting to crack open boxes of the latest Magic: The Gathering trading cards and face off in a tournament.
Noel Camilotas spent most of the day pacing past rows of packed tables and helping players decipher the rules of the hotly anticipated new set. When he was done for the day, he walked out of the store with two boxes of cards.
Despite that haul, Camilotas had hoped for more.
“Some of the products I requested are not going to be available for me anytime soon,” he said. “One of the other products is not going to be available for purchase at all.”
Wizards of the Coast, a division of the toy giant Hasbro, announced in August that delivery of its new set of Magic cards would be delayed throughout North America. The company pointed to a drought-powered traffic jam at the Panama Canal through which nearly 6 percent of global maritime trade and about 40 percent of U.S. container traffic pass. The drought this year has been magnified by the El Niño climate pattern, which spikes air and surface water temperatures in parts of the Pacific Ocean and sets off extreme weather like floods and drought across the globe. The phenomenon has compounded the effects of rising global temperatures, adding to drought conditions in Central America and upending international maritime traffic.
A bottleneck in the Panama Canal has made it harder for fans of Magic: The Gathering to buy the game’s latest Reality Fracture expansion set. Pat Nabong / Chicago Sun-TimesThe delay is an early warning sign for how susceptible one of the world’s most important shipping lanes is in the face of a warming planet and what experts warn could be the strongest El Niño in history.
“Supply will be tighter at launch than anticipated as those boosters make their way through the logjam,” according to the card game’s website.
Magic: The Gathering has amassed more than 50 million players worldwide since its introduction in 1993. The game has birthed an entire media ecosystem as well as a robust resale market for rare cards. The rapper Post Malone reportedly purchased a one-of-a-kind card based on the One Ring from a Lord of the Rings-themed set for $2 million.
To win the game, players take the role of powerful, spell-slinging wizards and compete to see who can draw the most cards, cast the biggest spells, and defeat opponents by reducing their life points to zero. Cards are spells, and each player has an endlessly customizable deck of cards that draw on a massive catalogue that grows several times a year. New sets are released every few months.
The model has been tremendously successful. The game has made its parent company Hasbro more than $1 billion in revenue in just the first half of this year. But the trading game now faces an unexpected real-world challenge: El Niño.
“Even in our little corner of the multiverse, the supply chain affects us.”
“The result of an El Niño for Central America is a very strong drought,” said Ross Griffith, the head of Americas freight pricing at Argus Media, a U.K.-based agency tracking commodity prices. Between May and August this year, parts of Panama received rainfall about a third below the long-term average, raising concerns about water levels at the freshwater reservoirs that supply drinking water to the region and provide the water needed to lift and lower ships through the canal’s system of locks.
People play Magic: The Gathering at Dice Dojo, a game shop in Chicago. Pat Nabong / Chicago Sun-TimesAs a result, the Panama Canal Authority began restricting traffic, cutting daily vessel crossing slots by nearly 20 percent. That bottleneck drove up the fees shipping companies paid to cross the canal in September to as high as $5.3 million, topping the previous $4.6 million record set the previous month. Such restrictions are not new. During the last El Niño in 2023, daily crossings had dropped even lower.
El Niño is expected to last into early 2027 and could exacerbate Panama’s upcoming dry season, according to Ross, who added that the delayed Magic cards could be just the beginning of El Niño-induced knock-on effects.
“If you have drought conditions on top of a typically more dry period, even what little replenishment you were getting then is probably not coming,” he said. “That can be really dangerous.”
So, at least for now, card collectors in Chicago and beyond will likely be waiting longer than usual.
“Some products are now coming in waves,” Emma Hendren, the general manager at Dice Dojo, said on that Saturday in September. “We’re not going to have it available for sale today. We’re not certain when it’s going to arrive, unfortunately.”
Magic players are used to dealing with limited quantities or even delayed cards, but the current El Niño-powered disruption is new.
“Magic: The Gathering is all fantasy and all that stuff,” Joshua Wiltsie, who has been playing Magic for 30 years, said. “Even in our little corner of the multiverse, the supply chain affects us.”
This story was originally published by Grist with the headline Magic: The Gathering draws a bad hand with El Niño on Oct 15, 2026.
Freeing Europe from Cloud Giants
Beyond rogue scenarios and hype, the AI boom is accelerating a deeper structural shift: the migration of the global economy to the cloud. So far, the EU has mostly tried to rein in Big Tech through regulation, but this reactive approach has fallen short. The recent push for tech sovereignty can only succeed if it starts with democratic choice and a shared vision for social and technological progress.
Alessio Giussani: Your book The Rulers is primarily about three companies: Google, Amazon, and Microsoft. What sets them apart from other big corporations?
Cecilia Rikap: In the current debate, there’s a lot of noise about what’s going on with AI. Everybody, of course, has the right to talk about AI, particularly because decisions are made behind closed doors, and we lack a space to democratically discuss the ways forward. But instead of talking about the roots of corporate power and how it dictates technological change and profits from it, the conversation is often about two types of agents – and I’m playing with the word “agent” here.
One is the AI agent. People marvel at the things that AI can do, and instead of trying to understand who is developing this technology and for what purposes, they get caught up in this rhetoric that AI is either wonderful or horrible, but is extremely powerful either way. Others, who are more concerned with economic inequalities – as I also am – focus on another type of agent: the CEOs and the founders of these companies, particularly the ones who side with the far right, like Elon Musk or Alex Karp. I’m not saying that this approach is not relevant. But if we truly want to understand the roots of corporate power today, and therefore act upon it, dismantle it, and create alternatives, we cannot miss the forest for the tree.
These far-right characters shout very loudly and sometimes distract us from what’s really going on; this is what happens often with someone like Elon Musk. I’m not saying his companies don’t matter or that we shouldn’t study them, but in my research I don’t want to single out companies arbitrarily. Instead, I try to offer a more comprehensive view of corporate power. Therefore, I start by analysing the largest companies by market capitalisation, and then try to understand what explains their power.
I identify two groups: one is the group of big oil companies, and more broadly, companies that get their advantage by systematically extracting and monetising nature in different forms. The other group, which is the largest one and has been growing fast and overtaking some of the old giants, is made up of companies whose advantage comes from systematically capturing intangibles.
Corporate power has always been built, to some degree at least, on capturing and making sense of intangibles like information and knowledge, organising them, and putting them at the service of production processes. Think, for example, of the R&D laboratory of IBM, or the marketing department of Coca-Cola. These companies have been intellectual monopolies for decades, capturing intangibles like science and knowledge (in the case of IBM) or narratives and brand-building (Coca-Cola).
As intellectual monopolies, they mobilise their intangible assets to exercise economic power. Start-ups, for example, control intangibles, but usually they are not used for capturing economic value. An intellectual monopoly puts different forms of knowledge, narratives, and data at the service of expanding its control of the economy. This control can take the form of a chokepoint if it occurs on a specific market, or of a panopticon if it gives the ability to monitor all information created and exchanged within a network, enabling the leading corporation to plan, organise, and control beyond ownership.
Based on your analysis, a company like NVIDIA – which designs the most advanced AI chips and is the largest in the world by market capitalisation – does not qualify as a “ruler”. Why?
Nvidia has a clear chokepoint because it controls a specific market and is certainly an intellectual monopoly. But beyond that, it doesn’t have the capacity to control a broad part of the global economy. Its power is focused on semiconductor design, whereas other companies have a panopticon view, often because they sell directly across multiple markets. When you are at the supermarket, you think there are so many brands, but then you start turning the packaging, and you see Unilever everywhere. This gives a company like Unilever a panopticon: broad oversight across different parts of the economy. So all these companies mobilise intangibles to control portions of our lives, but these end up being contained, limited. Amazon, Microsoft, and Google are the only ones that combine multiple chokepoints and the largest panopticon of Western capitalism.
Many powerful actors are involved in producing an AI model. NVIDIA’s semiconductors are manufactured in Taiwan at TSMC, which I also classify as an intellectual monopoly with a chokepoint. So I’m not saying a company like Nvidia or TSMC isn’t powerful. But even the semiconductors from Nvidia end up entering the cloud of Amazon, Microsoft, and Google. Everywhere we look, we see these three companies controlling the many pieces and actors that then, seen together, become the digital stack.
Take academic research on AI, for example. Amazon, Microsoft, and Google co-produce around 90 per cent of their research with thousands of organisations. This isn’t exclusive to them: Meta, Nvidia, and companies from other sectors do it too. But when it comes to AI, Google and Microsoft are those with the largest capacity to control universities and public research organisations developing frontier research on AI. Moreover, they control the largest number of other companies, including start-ups, with their venture capital money and through the cloud.
Nvidia is expanding its profits so much that it has leverage to expand beyond its chokepoint. It is now trying to get its own cloud by investing a lot of money – also in partnership with other leading companies – to basically offer its semiconductors as a service on independent data centres that are not those of Amazon, Microsoft, and Google. Of course, this makes total sense because Nvidia doesn’t want to depend on selling to other big players. To some extent, what NVIDIA is trying to do is build its own cloud, and for me, this shows how important the cloud is.
What exactly is the cloud? And why does it bring so much power to the companies that control it?
Let me start with an example everyone knows: Netflix. It looks like a simple streaming app where we can watch whatever we want. Behind Netflix, there are thousands of digital services, which means that you have millions of lines of code that do a lot of different things. Not even a company as large as Netflix writes every line of code that makes the platform exist for all of us. Why? Because there are a lot of services, a lot of ready-made pieces of software for solving specific and repetitive issues that can be purchased. Where do you buy that? In the past, organisations used to go to a software provider and ask for software for their needs. It was more tailor-made, but it was also more expensive. Now, they rent it in the cloud.
The cloud is like a supermarket for digital technologies. It’s not just infrastructure offered as a service – that is, the data centres where data is stored and processed. You can get whatever you want in the cloud: software, a model, data, a platform, infrastructure, and more. From each of these clouds – which are run by Amazon, Microsoft and Google – you have thousands of options that you can purchase as a service.
That also means you never truly get access to the code. You don’t download the service to your computer, but you can use it while you are connected to the cloud. And this is where the cloud starts being something different. It’s not just the supermarket of technologies. It is also the production sphere, the factory, the place where data is arranged and organised, the software is produced, the architecture of the platforms is designed. Everything happens inside the cloud, and when we consume the services, we’re also inside the cloud. It’s as if I were also cooking and eating my meal inside the supermarket where I bought the ingredients. The production, the exchange, the consumption: it all happens there.
This differs from the power these companies already had over individuals through social media. Organisations of every size and every type, from small firms to large companies like Netflix, Nestlé, or Coca-Cola, and even governments, migrate to the cloud. In fact, the entire global economy is migrating to the cloud, which means that companies that control it get the capacity to oversee, predict, and anticipate where the economy is going; a level of foresight that no single institution, government, or organisation had in the past.
The cloud and intellectual monopolies predate the explosion of AI hype with the public release of ChatGPT in 2022. What does AI fundamentally change in the cloud’s role and the power relations it generates?
The AI companies that we now associate with the AI boom or hype, like OpenAI and Anthropic – but also DeepMind, which was acquired by Google in 2014 – are tightly connected to the cloud giants in multiple ways, including venture capital money. Since the release of ChatGPT, these AI companies have required a growing amount of processing power, which has also driven the data centre boom. At the same time, we have organisations around the world that feel that they must adopt AI, that they cannot be left out. I call this AI FOMO. And what is the safest, and also the most seamless, way to adopt AI? Well, the cloud.
AI is like a Trojan horse, a marketing strategy for the cloud. It accelerates migration to the cloud. Through Amazon, Microsoft, or Google Cloud, you automatically integrate the AI models into all the rest of the digital services you use. And you might not trust Anthropic, but Microsoft? Microsoft has been there for many years, so these companies have built a reputation as trustworthy partners, especially for other leading firms. Some companies have contracts directly with OpenAI or with Anthropic, but more and more we see that organisations prefer to go to the supermarket, where today they might use Claude, tomorrow ChatGPT, and the day after tomorrow they may use China’s DeepSeek, because even DeepSeek is available as a service on the cloud of Amazon, Microsoft, and Google.
Meanwhile, regulators and competition authorities focus on AI and whether the AI market will be competitive, or what to do to make it competitive. But AI exists within an ecosystem, and the ones that control the ecosystem beyond ownership are the cloud giants.
Controlling beyond ownership is also linked to planning and delivering innovation. How do you understand that concept?
We tend to think that innovation is a precondition for economic growth, and that growth, if we have the right policies, will lead to prosperity and a better life for everyone. Private companies are seen as the innovators, so governments are expected to cut red tape so we can achieve prosperity. Yet societies are not becoming more prosperous.
The classical understanding of innovation would define it as a new process or product put on the market. An invention might be the discovery of a new drug or treatment, but until it’s approved and sold on the market, it’s not an innovation. But this definition neglects that every innovation is produced collectively by many, and then monetised by the company that captures that co-created knowledge. Between 2012 and 2021, for example, Microsoft produced over 15,000 scientific publications. Almost all of them had at least one co-author who worked for another organisation, not Microsoft. During the same period, Microsoft was granted 35,000 patents. It shared ownership of just 1 per cent of those patents.
This goes to show that these corporations are not the only innovators. When companies like Microsoft, Amazon, Google, and others work with public universities and research institutes or invest in startups, they do so to get access to the knowledge that is being produced, to steer the trajectory of that knowledge, and then recombine all the pieces of that huge puzzle and monetise all the new recombinations. In a way, they are the big appropriators. So we shouldn’t cope with them under the promise that their innovations will contribute to a better life. In fact, they don’t, and these are not just “their” innovations, but the product of collective creative processes involving many others. These companies are indeed producing a lot of frontier research on AI, but never alone.
Besides, innovation today should be understood as knowledge in all its forms. This includes narratives and data, and how all this gets combined in the melting pot of creativity that the intellectual monopolies control beyond ownership. Corporations craft narratives about what we think AI is and how it should be regulated, and push us to use AI as a method of inventing, sidelining other means of producing and creating. I call this process epistemic totalitarianism.
Europe seems to have only awakened to the dangers of this system since Trump’s return to the White House in 2024 and his unholy alliance with tech bros. But who’s really in charge? Who’s driving whom?
During the Cold War, the Department of Defence set the trajectory and orientation of technological change. The Pentagon did this by investing strategically as well as coordinating and planning the big technological innovations of the Cold War period. After the Cold War, there was a sense of, “Why should we continue doing this the same way? We won.” Of course, it doesn’t mean that the Pentagon stopped investing in technology in the 1990s and 2000s, but it was no longer steering and planning technological development in the same way. Now, big tech companies have increasingly become the big planners of science and technology, particularly of AI. The AI that we have is the AI that they want. It’s an AI that can be resold again and again to countless actors, making it cheaper to produce and expanding their control over our societies.
Europe has been missing this story for decades. It thought that the world was operating as a common market, and that we should promote competition because everyone was on the same page. Of course, Europe knew that China wasn’t on that page and that China was planning. But what was harder to see was that leading corporations, in particular those from the US, were also planning and controlling beyond ownership.
The US government, once it realised around a decade ago that this was going on, decided to take action, and the already solid relationship between big tech and the Department of Defence has grown stronger and stronger since then. The most important change in this dynamic is that big tech – unlike previous military subcontractors – does not depend on government money. A key difference between a company like Palantir and a company like Microsoft is that Microsoft doesn’t depend on funding from the US government and its allies to be profitable, whereas Palantir does. This doesn’t mean Palantir will always obey the White House rule and bend the knee, but it is in its best interest to keep the government happy. For big tech companies, it’s not about getting money from the government; it’s about getting political help. They need the US government to stop places like Europe from regulating them.
What do they want exactly? They seem to be asking to pull the brake on AI development, while promising that AI could bring immense benefits to humanity and pushing on the accelerator.
There are two prevalent discourses in Silicon Valley, which correspond to two different ways of trying to control the state. One is that democracy, innovation, and freedom cannot go together. It posits that innovation and freedom should be prioritised over democracy. For those pushing this view, the state has failed and needs to be destroyed; technology by itself will bring a better world and deliver progress in every respect – to those who can pay for it, of course. These are the views of people like Alex Karp, Elon Musk, and Peter Thiel. But we also have the discourse of Satya Nadella and Sundar Pichai, the CEOs of Microsoft and Google, who say almost every day that their technologies will deliver promised economic growth while helping governments manage public administration, schools, hospitals, and borders.
This second discourse is more subtle. I describe it as corporate diplomacy because it’s a more strategic way to convince governments – even progressive ones. And when it comes to regulations, of course, these companies will respond differently: they will pretend to be much more open to oversight, but the question is which type of regulation and who designs it. They say that the technology moves so fast that it’s impossible for government regulation to be updated as it should be, and so they push for self-regulation, or regulation done by a third-party actor that goes inside the company and works together with its employees, with the information that the company wants to share. And they agree on regulations that blame tech users but never (themselves as) producers.
So, even though it might seem like they’re saying something different, in the end, they are all pushing for a certain type of regulation that blinds governments and society more and creates a shield from external oversight.
Regulation has been the approach driving policymaking in Brussels for a long time. Now there has been a shift towards competitiveness and a new buzzword: tech sovereignty. You’ve been working with this concept well before it became so popular. What does it mean?
Tech sovereignty can mean three different things. It can mean techno-nationalism, which consists in giving all the contracts to European firms. However, European companies like Siemens or SAP are also intellectual monopolies. And they are private companies, so their interest is to make money, not to grant options, choices, and openness to our societies in terms of how technology is produced or for what purposes.
Another interpretation, prevalent today at the EU level, sees tech sovereignty as making things happen in Europe, and it is as problematic as the first, if not more. The European Commission’s Tech sovereignty package should be renamed the tech competitiveness package. It aims to achieve competitiveness and economic growth through or with the excuse of sovereignty. It’s good marketing to call it sovereignty, but it’s essentially about attracting more capital to Europe, growing GDP, and reducing the feeling that we are lagging behind vis-à-vis the US. As it is designed, the package allows a company like Microsoft to fulfil all the criteria [of Europeanness] if it stores data in European data centres, and if its subsidiaries selling its services are based in Europe. So, from a legal point of view, these companies will be European entities, even if they are part of the Microsoft multinational corporation.
Clearly, these two ways of thinking about sovereignty are very short-sighted. Sovereignty, when it comes to tech, should be connected to governance, democracy, and choice. It is about being able to decide which technologies we want, which ones we don’t want, and for what purposes. Who is going to develop them? To what extent are we going to develop them, given their ecological footprint? What data are we going to use? How will we recognise the collective work that goes into developing technology? How are we going to make sure the effects don’t harm workers?
Ultimately, sovereignty is about who decides. It’s about democratising the political power of who is deciding about the present and future of humanity, because these technologies are powerful and ubiquitous, and the technologies that we are getting today are decided behind closed doors by a few actors.
If you were a progressive politician, government, or policymaker who wants to work towards this more expansive notion of tech sovereignty, what kind of coalitions and constituencies would you try to involve in the process?
The “we” needs to include everyone who identifies that this is a problem and wants to build a vision of digital sovereignty that is about collectively co-creating and sharing knowledge.
I think we need to start by decoupling the public sector from these companies. We need to make sure the US government and the companies can’t switch off the states participating in building an alternative. We can start small, for example with education, which is a critical sector, because kids at school are receiving a Google Suite package and studying with generative AI. We’ve seen the effect it has even on adults: it reduces people’s capacity to think critically. We, as adults, have learned to maintain some balance, but kids often don’t have that capacity. Other critical sectors are healthcare and the public service media.
It’s hard, but it will not require all the money that the companies are investing because we are going to start smaller, from the capabilities that already exist. And Europe has a lot of those. A significant part of these companies’ advantage comes from research that was done and is still being done in Europe by European universities, European companies, and so on.
There’s a growing movement against data centres. Should they be part of the conversation? And can we really build a democratic and sovereign tech if we put a pause on them altogether?
Including the communities that are fighting against data centres is critical because if we are building a public alternative, we will need infrastructure. The question is, where are we going to build these data centres? To what extent do we need them?
There is the idea that hyperscale data centres are inevitable, but only because we’ve accepted the narrative from cloud giants and AI companies that what we need is the largest model with more parameters, even though that is less rigorous than the machine learning models developed to detect or do specific tasks. But of course, those models require more human effort and less energy. So, we also need to change the AI paradigm in this process.
Tech CEOs and politicians in the US mention China “catching up” day in and day out as the ultimate reason to push the accelerator and push back against meaningful regulation. Is that narrative justified by reality?
When you look at the level of investment in the digital infrastructure of Amazon, Microsoft, and Google compared to Alibaba, Tencent, or Huawei, you can clearly see that China is playing a different game. It is trying to expand the adoption of its models as much as possible, even if they are not at the frontier. If it had political interest in doing so, China could channel all its efforts into one big team producing the largest AI model you’ve ever seen, and it has the resources and people to do that. But that’s not the game that China is playing.
Nor is Beijing just playing the AI game. China has been focusing on so many industries; it’s trying to lead everywhere, while the US is focused on AI, and Europe is stuck in between because it’s not thinking about what Europeans’ problems are today. What’s the priority? What should we be focusing on?
I like to live in Europe. The quality of life here is way better than in the US, and we often forget this. We forget about all the things we still get in Europe that are much rarer in other parts of the world, and I think we need to embrace that much more. It’s the time to build digital commons. It’s the time to build global public goods. It’s time to solve critical problems instead of being blinded by the latest iteration of an AI model that clearly brings more problems than solutions. And again, I’m not saying we should solve all problems without technology, but we should first map the problems, who is being affected by them, and how, and then identify what type of solutions is needed. In some cases, it might be technology; in other cases, it might just be redistributing wealth and decision-making power. It’s ultimately about bold political choices, and I hope to see more of those coming from Europe.
The content of this interview has been edited and rearranged for length and clarity.
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