News Feeds

OWENSVILLE, Missouri (April 29, 2026) Horstmann Cattle Company, owned and operated by August Horstmann in Gasconade County, is the newest ranch to earn the National Audubon Society’s Bird-Friendly...

We live in a rapidly changing and increasingly complex world and staying centered can feel more challenging by the day. It is easy to become weighed down by uncertainty, anxiety, or even despair –...

HARLEYVILLE, S.C. — The Francis Beidler Forest Audubon Center & Sanctuary (“Beidler Forest”) is being nationally recognized for its beauty and biodiversity by being formally inducted into the...

DENVER—Interior Secretary Doug Burgum claimed in a Senate Energy and Natural Resources hearing this morning that President Donald Trump’s $10 billion “slush fund” request in his 2027 proposed Interior department budget is solely for deferred maintenance at National Park Service sites in and around Washington, D.C., and will not go toward any new construction. See their exchange HERE.

Trump’s proposed NPS budget requests the establishment of a “new $10.0 billion Presidential Capital Stewardship Program in order to carry out priority construction and rehabilitation projects in the Washington, D.C. area.”

But the Interior department estimates the NPS deferred maintenance backlog in D.C. to be just over $2 billion. Adding in the maintenance backlog for all of Virginia and Maryland brings the total to only $4 billion, leaving $6 billion or more unaccounted for in Burgum’s request for Trump’s slush fund.

Trump’s NPS budget also calls for a 55 percent reduction in the annual National Park Service construction and major maintenance budget, leaving NPS less than $50 million to address repairs at historic sites and national parks across the country, and a 53 percent, or $213 million, reduction in resource stewardship funds.

The Center for Western Priorities released the following statement from Communications Manager Kate Groetzinger:

“Doug Burgum finally gave Congress insight into the shady $10 billion request for ‘beautification’ projects in Washington D.C. But his answer doesn’t square with his own department’s deferred maintenance numbers. He’s already spent $17 million in taxpayer money on a fountain across from the White House. President Trump has made it clear he wants more vanity projects, from giant arches to sculpture gardens, in his own backyard.

“It’s time for Secretary Burgum to tell President Trump that all of America’s parks need attention, not just the ones outside the president’s window.”

Learn more:

• Burgum blunders through budget hearings, taking heat for NPS cuts and Trump ‘slush fund’ – Westwise

• DOI Deferred Maintenance backlog – Interior Department

• President’s Budget Proposal Slashes National Park Service Funding Amid Ongoing Attacks on National Parks – NPCA

• Firm Building Trump’s Ballroom Got a Secret No-Bid Contract for a Nearby Job – New York Times

The post Fact Check: Burgum claims $10 billion Trump slush fund request is for NPS deferred maintenance only appeared first on Center for Western Priorities.

Federal court orders DTE Energy to pay $100M for Clean Air Act violations at EES Coke on Zug Island, marking a major win for Southwest Detroit residents; appeal ongoing.

The post An update on Southwest Detroit Industrial Impacts: The Zug Island Ruling appeared first on FracTracker Alliance.

WASHINGTON (AP) — Burning time for North American wildfires is going into overtime. Flames are lasting later into the night and starting earlier in the morning because human-caused climate change is extending the hotter and drier conditions that feed fires, a new study found.

Fires used to die down or even die out at night as temperatures dropped and humidity increased, but that’s happening less often. The number of hours in North America when the weather is favorable for wildfires is 36% higher than 50 years ago, according to a study published earlier this month in Science Advances.

Places such as California have 550 more potential burning hours than in the mid-1970s. Parts of southwestern New Mexico and central Arizona are seeing as many as 2,000 more hours a year when the weather is prone to burning fires, the highest increase seen in the study, which looked at Canada and the United States. The research looked at times when conditions were ripe for fire, but that didn’t mean fires occurred during all that time.

Recent big fires in LA and Hawaii burned at night

Fires that surge at night are tougher to fight and included the Lahaina, Hawaii fire in 2023, the Jasper fire in Alberta in 2024, and the Los Angeles fires in 2025, the study said. Maui’s fire ignited at 12:22 a.m.

It’s not just the clock that is getting extended. The calendar is too. The number of days with fire-prone weather increased by 44%, which effectively added 26 days over the past half-century.

It’s mostly from warmer, drier nighttime weather, with a bit of extra wind, the study authors said.

“Fires normally slow down during the night, or they just stop,” said study co-author Xianli Wang, a fire scientist with the Canadian Forest Service. “But under extreme fire hazard conditions, fire actually burns through the night or later into the night.”

And Wang said Earth’s warming atmosphere means it’s like to get worse.

Tougher to fight fires at night

Fires that don’t “go to sleep” get a running start the next day, making it harder to knock them down, University of California, Merced fire scientist John Abatzoglou, who wasn’t part of the study, said in an email.

“Nights aren’t what they used to be — that is, more reliable breaks for wildfire,” he added. “Widespread warming and lack of humidity is keeping fires up at night.”

Wildland firefighter Nicholai Allen, who also founded a firm that makes home fire prevention tools, said it’s very difficult to fight fires at night.

“You have to understand that you have snakes and bears and mountain lions and all the stuff you have in daytime,” Allen said, noting a colleague was bitten by a bear. “But at night, they’re really scared, and they’re running away from the fire.”

The Canadian researchers analyzed nearly 9,000 larger fires from 2017 to 2023 using a weather satellite and other tools to get hour-by-hour data on atmospheric conditions during the fires, such as humidity, temperature, wind, rain, and fuel moisture levels. They created a computer model that correlated weather conditions and fire status and applied to historical data in Canada and the United States from 1975 to 2106.

Nights are warming faster than days

Scientists have long said heat-trapping gases from the burning of coal, oil, and natural gas make nights warm faster than days because of increased cloud cover that absorbs and re-emits heat down to Earth at night like a blanket. Since 1975, summers in the contiguous U.S. have seen nighttime lowest temperatures warm by 2.6 degrees Fahrenheit (1.4 degrees Celsius), while daytime highest temperatures have gone up 2.2 degrees Fahrenheit (1.2 degrees Celsius), according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

Humidity at night “doesn’t rebound” from its daytime dryness like it used to, said study lead author Kaiwei Luo, a fire science researcher at the University of Alberta.

Wildfires often coincide with drought, especially extreme drought, which means not only drier air, but hotter, drier air that sucks up more moisture from the ground and plants, making fuels for fire more flammable, Wang said. In a drought, there’s often a vicious circle of drying and when it is quite dry, a warmer atmosphere has more power to suck moisture out of fuels.

Just as warmer nights, especially in heat waves, don’t let the body recover, the warmer nights are not allowing forests to recover, Wang said. It can take weeks for dead fuel to recover its lost moisture and be less fire-prone, he said.

“It’s just a stress to the plants,” Wang said. “That also increases fuel load.”

From 2016 to 2025, wildfires in the United States on average burned an area the size of Massachusetts each year, slightly more than 11,000 square miles (28,500 square kilometers). That’s 2.6 times the average burn area of the 1980s, according to the National Interagency Fire Center. Canada’s land burned on average for the last 10 years is 2.8 times more than during the 1980s, according to the Canadian Interagency Forest Fire Centre.

Syracuse University fire scientist Jacob Bendix, who wasn’t part of the research, called the study a sobering reminder of climate change’s role in driving “increased fire potential across almost all of the fire-prone environments of North America.”

The founder and director of a company behind new plans to use UK onshore gas for bitcoin mining, has resigned.

Rathlin Energy’s West Newton-B site in East Yorkshire. Photo: We Said No

John Hodgins, a Canadian geologist, left the Rathlin Energy board on 1 April 2026, according to the official Companies House register.

He had been a director since January 2008.

Rathlin operates two sites in Holderness, East Yorkshire, at West Newton-A and B.

The company’s majority investor, Reabold Resources, has proposed using gas from the sites to generate electricity for crypto currency transactions. See DrillOrDrop report from August 2025

Mr Hodgins is the chief executive of Connaught Oil & Gas Ltd, Rathlin’s former parent company, based in Calgary, Canada.

He has worked in western Canada, the North Sea, China, the US and Australia, as well onshore in the UK.

Before joining Connaught, he held positions in eight different oil and gas companies.

Rathlin’s most recent accounts, for the year ending 31 December 2024, reported that Mr Hodgins held 427,272 ordinary shares and 272,000 share purchase options.

In the past two years, two other directors have resigned, Howard Mayson (April 2024) and Paul McGarvey (May 2025), as well as Rathlin’s auditor. Paul Harris joined the board in March 2025.

Earlier this month, an environmental campaigner took the first steps in a legal challenge to the approval by the Environment Agency of lower-volume fracking at West Newton-A.

Spring has arrived in North Texas, and with it comes one of the most exciting seasons at Dogwood Canyon. As trees leaf out, wildflowers bloom, and insects begin to buzz, migratory birds return to the...

This week, the Sacramento County Superior Court denied a motion by the State Water Contractors to disqualify Judge Stephen P. Acquisto, who has presided for more than two years over coordinated cases challenging the Department of Water Resources’ (DWR) approvals of the Delta Tunnel project. 

More than ten cases are currently pending, including challenges to DWR’s approvals under the California Environmental Quality Act, the Delta Reform Act and other statutes.

Petitioners, including all five Delta Counties, North, Central and South Delta Water Agencies, the City of Stockton, the Sacramento Area Sewer District, and a broad coalition of Tribes and environmental organizations, opposed the motion, citing the advanced stage of the proceedings and the risk of unnecessary confusion and delay. 

Restore the Delta welcomes the court’s decision to deny the State Water Contractors’ attempt to remove the presiding judge and looks forward to transparent proceedings of the Delta Tunnel challenges. 

Read more on the decision here.

###

When we speak of a revolution’s failure, we usually mean that it did not fulfill its stated aims. In the case of Iran’s 1979 revolution, however, the failure runs far deeper. That revolution not only failed to achieve its declared objectives; it failed in the most profound sense. It brought to power a force even more reactionary than the one it overthrew. What occurred was not simply a transfer of power but a historical regression whose consequences endure to this day. This regression extended beyond politics into the social and cultural fabric and even reshaped the intellectual horizons of society, setting the trajectory of development sharply backward.

It is within this context that the discussion of the “bleak scenario” versus the “bright scenario” acquires meaning. This distinction does not stem from naïve optimism about revolutionary processes, but from a concrete historical concern. In classical—and, to some extent, ideological—communist theory, political change is typically imagined as a revolutionary process in which the working class and organized popular forces seize power from the bourgeoisie to establish a new order. This vision presupposes a minimum level of social organization, continuity of production, and the capacity for political reconstruction. In other words, even amid revolution, it assumes that society does not disintegrate entirely and that the essential foundations for rebuilding remain intact.

A coherent state in the conventional sense has never fully taken shape within the Islamic regime. What exists instead is a constellation of rival power factions.

The realities of Iranian society under the Islamic regime cast doubt on such assumptions. The systematic and often brutal destruction of every form of independent organization has rendered such social structuring practically impossible. For nearly five decades, the regime has crushed collective organization with extraordinary severity: dismantling political parties, dissolving councils, erasing labor unions, and imprisoning anyone who attempted to organize. Under such conditions, the idea of a coherent, conscious transfer of power to emancipatory forces seems less a political possibility than an expression of hope divorced from reality.

At the same time, Iranian society is caught in a structural deadlock. The Islamic Republic has reached a point where it can neither retreat nor advance. There is no clear horizon for resolving its intertwined economic, political, and social crises. Structural reform has become unfeasible, yet maintaining the status quo demands ever-deeper repression. This stalemate creates a situation where social explosions are always possible, but the organizational capacity to direct them is extremely weak—if not entirely absent. This tension between an explosive potential and the absence of conscious direction forms the primary foundation of the “bleak scenario.”

Moreover, the very structure of the Islamic regime has evolved into a permanent source of instability. From its inception, the system has been anchored in an apocalyptic religious ideology that has shaped not only politics but also economic life, culture, and foreign policy. This ideology, animated by a self-ascribed historical mission, transcends the rational logic of a modern state. Decision-making, therefore, has been guided not by functional necessities but by ideological and security imperatives. (I have increasingly come to believe that the Islamic regime does not perceive itself as a conventional state. Instead, it acts as a marginal, semi-insurgent force with nothing to lose—resembling groups such as Hamas, Hezbollah, or Hashd al-Shaabi. Interestingly, Putin once referred to it in similar terms as a “rogue” entity.)

Continuous repression has destroyed parties and civil institutions, creating an ever-wider gulf between society and the state.

Over the following decades, segments of the ruling establishment began to recognize this contradiction. They understood that governing a complex society in the 21st century through rigid, theological instruments was unsustainable. Attempts were made—under banners such as “reconstruction” and “reform”—to adjust the system, yet always within the same ideological limits. Each time demands for change surfaced, core power centers and autonomous hardline networks blocked them. Thus emerged a dual reality: the necessity of change, and the structural impossibility of realizing it from within. The result has been the cumulative deepening of crises and a progressive erosion of governing capacity.

Consequently, a coherent state in the conventional sense has never fully taken shape within the Islamic regime. What exists instead is a constellation of rival power factions, shifting with each presidential administration, each seeking to consolidate its own position and privileges. These are not merely political rivals, but entrenched networks embedded across institutions. With each change at the top, these networks are reshuffled while the underlying logic persists. Each faction strives to expand its grip over resources—from state contracts to financial assets. Over time, this dynamic has produced a rentier, predatory political economy. Economic decisions serve factional interests, not societal needs. Development projects function primarily as mechanisms for distributing rents. Public wealth is systematically siphoned into private networks—oil rigs can vanish overnight. In such an environment, long-term planning becomes meaningless. Even at managerial levels, instability reigns: each political shift brings sweeping replacements, erasing institutional memory and undermining policy continuity.

A transition beyond the Islamic Republic will not, by necessity, produce a more progressive or stable order—though such a future remains possible and desirable.

The real danger becomes evident when this exhausted structure faces an acute crisis. The same factions now competing over resources may become the drivers of the “bleak scenario” during collapse. Importantly, this scenario is not chiefly produced by opposition groups. While external opposition may play a role, the core threat stems from forces currently inside the system. Each network, in its bid for survival, may resort to violence—some through direct repression, others through paramilitary or localized armed groups. In such conditions, rivalry over resources may evolve into open conflict. Past experiences—the brutal crackdowns of January 2018 and November 2019, and the regime’s intervention in Syria—show that the ruling establishment recognizes no limits when it comes to violence. This violence is not merely reactive but intrinsic to its mode of survival. When real solutions are unavailable, repression becomes the only remaining tool—not to resolve crises, but to buy time. Yet this delay yields nothing: there is neither a strategy for exit nor the will for transformation. Each new wave of repression only deepens the crisis and moves society closer to explosion.

For this reason, whether in the context of external war or mass protest, the risk of widespread violence is very real. The ruling factions see themselves as the rightful owners of the country—and particularly its wealth—and perceive no viable path toward relinquishing power or achieving peaceful transition. Meanwhile, a society deprived of organization and intermediary institutions lacks the means to manage a complex transition. Continuous repression has destroyed parties and civil institutions, creating an ever-wider gulf between society and the state. In such conditions, large-scale protests risk encountering both extreme violence and the absence of structures capable of guiding them. This volatile mix is what makes the “bleak scenario” genuinely possible. At the regional level, the Islamic Republic’s close ties to aligned militant groups only heighten this risk, allowing domestic crises to escalate and spill beyond borders.

The central question … is how to carve out a … path amid this dark horizon … that neither rests on revolutionary illusions nor surrenders to the existing order.

Thus, discussing the “bleak scenario” is not an abstract exercise but a sober warning. It underscores that a transition beyond the Islamic Republic will not, by necessity, produce a more progressive or stable order—though such a future remains possible and desirable. The immediate aftermath may involve instability, violence, or even social fragmentation. Yet this is not a historical dead end. Eventually, society will be compelled to move beyond it. The crucial point is that this transition—whether imminent or delayed—will inevitably carry immense tension and cost. The current structure is incapable of stepping aside or yielding peacefully. The longer the transition is postponed, the deeper and more destructive the coming crisis is likely to be. Hence, the issue is not one of when, but of how—of the quality and character of that transition.

The central question now is how to carve out a genuine path amid this dark horizon—a path that neither rests on revolutionary illusions nor surrenders to the existing order. A path that, even under these harsh conditions, can nurture organization, solidarity, and conscious agency. Addressing this question demands further analysis, which I hope to undertake in a future piece.

Opinions expressed in signed articles do not necessarily represent the views of the editors or the Tempest Collective. For more information, see “About Tempest Collective.”
Featured Image credit: Khamenei.ir; modified by Tempest.

The post Iran’s “bleak scenario” appeared first on Tempest.

PHILADELPHIA (April 29, 2026) — After the Shapiro Administration announced Tuesday a $267 million investment in industrial projects through the Reducing Industrial Sector Emissions in Pennsylvania (RISE PA) program, Clean Air Council and labor leaders are pointing to both the promise of the initiative and the need to ensure funds are directed toward truly clean solutions. 

At a press conference in Johnstown, Bernie Hall, District 10 Director for the United Steelworkers, underscored the opportunity to align economic growth with health and environmental progress.

“Too often people try to frame this as a choice between growing our economy and doing the right thing for our environment,” Hall said. “But good jobs and doing right aren’t mutually exclusive.”

Clean Air Council welcomed many of the awarded projects, including investments in solar, battery storage, electrification, energy efficiency, and industrial upgrades that can reduce pollution, cut energy costs, create jobs, and lower greenhouse gas emissions. 

“The funded projects show the tremendous potential to grow jobs, combat climate change, improve public health, and strengthen Pennsylvania’s industrial future,” said Alex Bomstein, Executive Director of Clean Air Council. “We applaud the RISE PA team for directing funds to the solutions to clean up and modernize our economy. But some of these grants miss the mark.”

The announcement included more than $31 million for projects to capture coal-mine methane, an approach that extends the reliance on fossil fuels rather than transitioning to cleaner technologies.

“Investments in fossil fuel infrastructure like mines and gas distribution, even in the name of efficiency, push our clean energy future farther out of reach,” Bomstein said. “The projects that truly modernize industry, like electrification and zero-emission technologies, are the ones that will deliver long-term economic, health, and environmental benefits.”

Yesterday’s RISE PA grants, funded through the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s Climate Pollution Reduction Grants, are expected to reduce more than 1.3 million metric tons of greenhouse gas emissions in their first year. Another round of funding, totaling $52 million, will open on May 15.

The next round will be critical.

“As the next round of funding moves forward, Pennsylvania has a clear opportunity to invest in solutions that lower energy costs, reduce pollution, and create family-supporting jobs,” Bomstein said. “That means prioritizing projects that move us toward a zero-emissions future, not ones that keep us tied to outdated fossil fuel infrastructure.”

The Wednesday, April 29, 2026, Climate Justice Forum radio program, produced by regional, climate activists collective Wild Idaho Rising Tide (WIRT), features George Price, an indigenous and African American, organic farmer, history educator, writer, and eco-socialist advocate in Montana, talking about the critical planetary boundaries of human existence, destructive activities causing current ecological overshoot, and solutions that replace industrial capitalism with cooperative, alternative, societal and economic structures.  We also share news, videos, and reflections on the history and upcoming workers rights demonstrations of May Day as International Labor Day, public comment opportunities to resist the proposed Bridger tar sands pipeline from Canada across eastern Montana to Wyoming, and a crucial Atlantic Ocean current system that could soon collapse and bring catastrophic cold to northern Europe and sea level rise to the U.S. East Coast.  Broadcast for fourteen years on progressive, volunteer, community station KRFP Radio Free Moscow, every Wednesday between 1:30 and 3 pm Pacific time, on-air at 90.3 FM and online at KRFP and the Pacifica Network AudioPort, the show describes continent-wide, grassroots, frontline resistance to fossil fuels projects, the root causes of climate change, thanks to generous, anonymous listeners who adopted program host Helen Yost as their KRFP DJ.

International Labour Day: Know the History of May Day and How Workers Fought for Rights, May 1, 2023 In Depth

May 1 Actions, April 29, 2026 May Day Strong

Proposed Bridger Pipeline Creating Debate, April 9, 2026 Northern Plains Independent

See also for maps: Why a Proposed Pipeline Ending in Wyoming Draws Comparisons to Keystone XL, April 28, 2026 Wyoming Public Radio

See also to comment: Bridger Pipeline Expansion Project, March 31, 2026 Bureau of Land Management

A Catastrophic Climate Event is Upon Us. Here is Why You’ve Heard So Little about It, April 23, 2026 George Monbiot/Guardian

An Indigenous Perspective on Ecological Overshoot: In Conversation with George Price, April 18, 2026 System Change Not Climate Change

New study finds ‘clean’ products for textured hair contain hidden hazards  Ketura Persellin April 29, 2026

Americans spend billions of dollars on hair care products every year, with growing demand for those marketed as “clean,” “natural” or “free from” harmful chemicals. But a new study finds the claims don’t always stand up to scrutiny and highlights the need for transparency in labeling to reduce uncertainty for consumers. 

The article was published in the Journal of Exposure Science and Environmental Epidemiology.

This means some consumers who think they’re buying a safer product could still be exposed to potentially harmful substances in their products. And products marketed to Black women contain more hazardous ingredients, resulting in disproportionate exposure from personal care products for Black women and women of color.

Scientists led by researchers from the University of California, Santa Barbara, and Columbia University along with Black Women for Wellness and Silent Spring analyzed products marketed as “clean,” focusing on textured hair described as curly, coily or wavy. Researchers reviewed products available at a Target in Los Angeles and used EWG’s Skin Deep® database to review ingredients in 150 hair products. 

Skin Deep scores over 144,000 personal care products based on the potential toxicity of their ingredients.

Some of the products included undisclosed “fragrance” compounds that can be endocrine disruptors linked to allergies, skin irritation and potential harm to the reproductive system. Other brands included ingredients that have been linked to these and other health concerns.

Around 40% of the products the researchers analyzed are listed in EWG’s Skin Deep database. The main findings were:

• 70% of products contained undisclosed fragrance, which is an umbrella term that refers to a mixture of potentially 100 or more chemicals. 
• 90% were classified as a “moderate” hazard (between 3 and 6 in Skin Deep). 
• “Free from” claims were inconsistently used on products. For example, only 60% of products formulated without sulfates were described as “sulfate free.”

Inequitable hazards

This isn’t just a marketing or labeling problem. It’s an equity problem. 

The study focused on textured hair products because they are disproportionately used by women of color, who already bear a heavier burden of exposure to endocrine-disrupting chemicals. 

EWG’s 2025 report on products marketed to Black women found disparities in the availability of safer personal care products. Using data from Skin Deep, EWG found the products were, on average, more hazardous than products without demographic marketing. 

Studies that have measured the concentration of certain personal care product chemicals in the body have also consistently reported that concentrations are higher in Black women, compared to white women.  

Regulatory gaps

Personal care product brands and retailers should take steps to develop and promote safer options that are genuinely free from chemicals of concern.

But it’s not just the industry’s duty to act – the lack of a federal definition for “clean” products means consumers must still navigate a complex and often opaque marketplace. No U.S. government agency requires companies to back up safety claims about their products.

The European Union has taken steps to protect consumers from greenwashing, a marketing tactic that involves making misleading claims so the product appears safe, environmentally friendly or sustainable. The EU’s 2023 Green Claims Directive outlined criteria to prevent companies from using unsubstantiated claims on their products. 

While the Federal Trade Commission says it is illegal to make claims that are “unfair or deceptive,” these terms are not closely regulated. This leaves little protection for consumers from greenwashing claims.

What you can do 

If you’re shopping for hair care or any other personal care products and you want to avoid problematic ingredients, here are some tips:

• Look for the EWG Verified® mark. In lieu of stronger regulations, third-party certification can fill the gap. That’s why EWG Verified exists: It gives consumers a mark they can trust. These products have been reviewed by our scientists and meet our most rigorous standards for health and transparency. 
• Avoid undisclosed fragrance. Watch for this term on product labels. Fragrance can hide hundreds of undisclosed chemicals. Instead, choose products that disclose all their fragrance ingredients, or look for the EWG Verified mark.
• Look for low hazard options. Check the list of the 4,000+ products marketed to Black women, and choose low hazard options. Or search our Healthy Living app or Skin Deep database to identify products that score low hazard (a 1 or 2). 

Areas of Focus Cosmetics Authors Alexa Friedman, Ph.D. April 29, 2026

When Mark Stoeckle went fishing in New York City’s East River, he caught a lot more than he was expecting.

The scientist from The Rockefeller University was focused on testing whether DNA floating in the water could shed light on which fish were living in the notoriously polluted stretch of water that separates Manhattan from Brooklyn and Queens.

But the buckets of water he hauled up from the eastern edge of Manhattan contained evidence of a lot more than just aquatic life. They also illuminated New Yorker’s eating habits and the abundance of classic urban wildlife such as rats and pigeons, according to a paper appearing today in PLOS One. In other words, each bucket of water was a little window into the Anthropocene.

“Environmental DNA doesn’t just tell us what lives in the water, it reveals insights into the entire ecosystem surrounding it, including the city itself,” says Stoeckle.

Beyond just being a curiosity (Who knew you could find DNA from tropical tilapia in the river?), the findings could help people track a plethora of interesting and important phenomena: changes in fish populations, the effectiveness of environmental restoration, trends in what people are eating, and whether New Yorker’s are making any headway in their war on rats.

“Urban biodiversity monitoring could expand dramatically and inexpensively using minimal equipment at relatively low cost,” said Stoeckle. “This ability to integrate environmental and human signals positions eDNA as a powerful tool for understanding the Anthropocene – the era defined by human influence on Earth’s systems.”

The primary focus of this research was to see if environmental DNA, or eDNA, testing could be used to gauge fish populations near a city. This DNA, shed by organisms into the environment, has been hailed as a potentially powerful tool that could alert people to the presence of particular species even if they never set eyes on the creature. Scientists have repurposed air quality monitors to detect dozens of species, counted species in zoos from sniffs of the air, and used air and water samples to assemble a surprisingly detailed picture of who and what were nearby.

But there have been obstacles to making good on the technology’s promise. It’s one thing to tell if a species is there. It’s another, more complicated thing to use DNA to estimate the size of a population. Then there’s the possibility that a flush of DNA in a crowded place like New York City might drown out the signals from fish, especially when rainstorms overwhelm the city’s sewer system, sending 18 billion gallons of raw sewage into nearby waterways each year.

 

.IRPP_ruby , .IRPP_ruby .postImageUrl , .IRPP_ruby .centered-text-area {height: auto;position: relative;}.IRPP_ruby , .IRPP_ruby:hover , .IRPP_ruby:visited , .IRPP_ruby:active {border:0!important;}.IRPP_ruby .clearfix:after {content: "";display: table;clear: both;}.IRPP_ruby {display: block;transition: background-color 250ms;webkit-transition: background-color 250ms;width: 100%;opacity: 1;transition: opacity 250ms;webkit-transition: opacity 250ms;background-color: #eaeaea;}.IRPP_ruby:active , .IRPP_ruby:hover {opacity: 1;transition: opacity 250ms;webkit-transition: opacity 250ms;background-color: inherit;}.IRPP_ruby .postImageUrl {background-position: center;background-size: cover;float: left;margin: 0;padding: 0;width: 31.59%;position: absolute;top: 0;bottom: 0;}.IRPP_ruby .centered-text-area {float: right;width: 65.65%;padding:0;margin:0;}.IRPP_ruby .centered-text {display: table;height: 130px;left: 0;top: 0;padding:0;margin:0;padding-top: 20px;padding-bottom: 20px;}.IRPP_ruby .IRPP_ruby-content {display: table-cell;margin: 0;padding: 0 74px 0 0px;position: relative;vertical-align: middle;width: 100%;}.IRPP_ruby .ctaText {border-bottom: 0 solid #fff;color: #0099cc;font-size: 14px;font-weight: bold;letter-spacing: normal;margin: 0;padding: 0;font-family:'Arial';}.IRPP_ruby .postTitle {color: #000000;font-size: 16px;font-weight: 600;letter-spacing: normal;margin: 0;padding: 0;font-family:'Arial';}.IRPP_ruby .ctaButton {background: url(https://www.anthropocenemagazine.org/wp-content/plugins/intelly-related-posts-pro/assets/images/next-arrow.png)no-repeat;background-color: #afb4b6;background-position: center;display: inline-block;height: 100%;width: 54px;margin-left: 10px;position: absolute;bottom:0;right: 0;top: 0;}.IRPP_ruby:after {content: "";display: block;clear: both;}Recommended Reading:Air quality monitors could be accidental eDNA vacuums . . .and a goldmine for ecologists

 

“After a heavy rain, the DNA of almost everything that makes the city tick—and squawk and squeak—ends up in the East River,” said coauthor Jesse Ausubel, who heads The Rockefeller University’s Program for the Human Environment.

“Genetically speaking, a rainstorm turns the river into something akin to Times Square on New Year’s Eve: crowded, noisy, and full of signals.”

To test what could be seen amid this chaos, each week between May 2024 and May 2025 the scientists collected two buckets of water from the same spot on the Manhattan side of the river and hauled it back to a lab. There, they ran the water through a filter much like a coffee filter. They took the residue left in the filter and put it through a series of treatments to see what DNA was there and compare it to a library of known DNA patterns.

When it comes to fish, the results revealed a number of fascinating patterns. The scientists didn’t claim to be able to produce counts of individual species populations. But they found that the amount of DNA from one species compared to another tracked closely with the comparative numbers that turned up in traditional net surveys. That means changes in DNA levels of different fish species over months or years probably reflects real rises and declines in their relative abundance.

That connection was buttressed by seasonal changes in the amount of fish DNA in the water. During the winter months, when fish numbers are lowest, so is their DNA. Their DNA surges tenfold during the warmer summer months, in line with population patterns.

The study also turned up evidence suggesting that efforts to rebuild reefs of oysters starting in 2015 are attracting fish. They turned up lots of DNA from skilletfish and feather blenny, which both are drawn to oyster reefs. A similar DNA survey in 2016 found little sign of those species. That matches results from nearby fish traps, where the species began appearing in 2020.

The more unexpected results were about what was happening on the surrounding land. The levels of DNA from different commonly eaten meats aligned with what New Yorkers are eating. Chicken came out on top, followed by beef and then pork. They also found traces of sheep, goat, turkey, salmon and tilapia.

They also found traces of city-dwelling wildlife. Top billing there, in terms of the concentration of their DNA in samples, went to Norway rats, followed by pigeons, Canada geese and ring-billed gulls. But it also turned up some less urban critters, including white-tailed deer and beavers.

The results show that a relatively simple, low-cost method could be used around the world to monitor the wild and not-so-wild pulse of cities, says Ausubel. A year’s worth of monitoring cost $15,000 and a slice of someone’s time, far less than traditional fishing surveys.

“Urban waterways worldwide could become distributed observatories of ecological change, reporting almost real-time what lives in and near them, not only fish but bats, beavers, and foxes,” Ausubel said. “With the right coordination, this approach could become the backbone of urban coastal monitoring.”

Stoeckle, et. al. “Biomonitoring in the Anthropocene: Urban estuary environmental DNA tracks marine fish, terrestrial wildlife, and human diet.” PLOS One. April 15, 2026.

Image: ©Anthropocene Magazine/AI-generated

Computer models that use artificial intelligence (AI) cannot forecast record-breaking weather as well as traditional climate models, according to a new study.

It is well established that AI climate models have surpassed traditional, physics-based climate models for some aspects of weather forecasting.

However, new research published in Science Advances finds that AI models still “underperform” in forecasting record-breaking extreme weather events.

The authors tested how well both AI and traditional weather models could simulate thousands of record-breaking hot, cold and windy events that were recorded in 2018 and 2020.

They find that AI models underestimate both the frequency and intensity of record-breaking events.

A study author tells Carbon Brief that the analysis is a “warning shot” against replacing traditional models with AI models for weather forecasting “too quickly”.

AI weather forecasts

Extreme weather events, such as floods, heatwaves and storms, drive hundreds of billions of dollars in damages every year through the destruction of cropland, impacts on infrastructure and the loss of human life. 

Many governments have developed early warning systems to prepare the general public and mobilise disaster response teams for imminent extreme weather events. These systems have been shown to minimise damages and save lives.

For decades, scientists have used numerical weather prediction models to simulate the weather days, or weeks, in advance. 

These models rely on a series of complex equations that reproduce processes in the atmosphere and ocean. The equations are rooted in fundamental laws of physics, based on decades of research by climate scientists. As a result, these models are referred to as “physics-based” models.

However, AI-based climate models are gaining popularity as an alternative for weather forecasting.

Instead of using physics, these models use a statistical approach. Scientists present AI models with a large batch of historical weather data, known as training data, which teaches the model to recognise patterns and make predictions.

To produce a new forecast, the AI model draws on this bank of knowledge and follows the patterns that it knows.

There are many advantages to AI weather forecasts. For example, they use less computing power than physics-based models, because they do not have to run thousands of mathematical equations.

Furthermore, many AI models have been found to perform better than traditional physics-based models at weather forecasts.

However, these models also have drawbacks. 

Study author Prof Sebastian Engelke, a professor at the research institute for statistics and information science at the University of Geneva, tells Carbon Brief that AI models “depend strongly on the training data” and are “relatively constrained to the range of this dataset”. 

In other words, AI models struggle to simulate brand new weather patterns, instead tending forecast events of a similar strength to those seen before. As a result, it is unclear whether AI models can simulate unprecedented, record-breaking extreme events that, by definition, have never been seen before. 

Record-breaking extremes

Extreme weather events are becoming more intense and frequent as the climate warms. Record-shattering extremes – those that break existing records by large margins – are also becoming more regular.

For example, during a 2021 heatwave in north-western US and Canada, local temperature records were broken by up to 5C. According to one study, the heatwave would have been “impossible” without human-caused climate change. 

The new study explores how accurately AI and physics-based models can forecast such record-breaking extremes.

First, the authors identified every heat, cold and wind event in 2018 and 2020 that broke a record previously set between 1979 and 2017. (They chose these years due to data availability.) The authors use ERA5 reanalysis data to identify these records. 

This produced a large sample size of record-breaking events. For the year 2020, the authors identified around 160,000 heat, 33,000 cold and 53,000 wind records, spread across different seasons and world regions. 

For their traditional, physics-based model, the authors selected the High RESolution forecast model from the Integrated Forecasting System of the European Centre for Medium-­Range Weather Forecasts. This is “widely considered as the leading physics-­based numerical weather prediction model”, according to the paper. 

They also selected three “leading” AI weather models – the GraphCast model from Google Deepmind, Pangu-­Weather developed by Huawei Cloud and the Fuxi model, developed by a team from Shanghai.

The authors then assessed how accurately each model could forecast the extremes observed in the year 2020.

Dr Zhongwei Zhang is the lead author on the study and a researcher at Karlsruhe Institute of Technology. He tells Carbon Brief that many AI weather forecast models were built for “general weather conditions”, as they use all historical weather data to train the models. Meanwhile, forecasting extremes is considered a “secondary task” by the models. 

The authors explored a range of different “lead times” – in other words, how far into the future the model is forecasting. For example, a lead time of two days could mean the model uses the weather conditions at midnight on 1 January to simulate weather conditions at midnight on 3 January.

The plot below shows how accurately the models forecasted all extreme events (left) and heat extremes (right) under different lead times. This is measured using “root mean square error” – a metric of how accurate a model is, where a lower value indicates lower error and higher accuracy.

The chart on the left shows how two of the AI models (blue and green) performed better than the physics-based model (black) when forecasting all weather across the year 2020.

However, the chart on the right illustrates how the physics-based model (black) performed better than all three AI models (blue, red and green) when it came to forecasting heat extremes.

Accuracy of the AI models (blue, red and green) and the physics-based model (black) at forecasting all weather over 2020 (left) and heat extremes (right) over a range of lead times. This is measured using “root mean square error” (RMSE) – a metric of how accurate a model is, where a lower value indicates lower error and higher accuracy. Source: Zhang et al (2026).

The authors note that the performance gap between AI and physics-based models is widest for lower lead times, indicating that AI models have greater difficulty making predictions in the near future. 

They find similar results for cold and wind records.

In addition, the authors find that AI models generally “underpredict” temperature during heat records and “overpredict” during cold records.

The study finds that the larger the margin that the record is broken by, the less well the AI model predicts the intensity of the event.

‘Warning shot’

Study author Prof Erich Fischer is a climate scientist at ETH Zurich and a Carbon Brief contributing editor. He tells Carbon Brief that the result is “not unexpected”.

He adds that the analysis is a “warning shot” against replacing traditional models with AI models for weather forecasting “too quickly”.

AI models are likely to continue to improve, but scientists should “not yet” fully replace traditional forecasting models with AI ones, according to Fischer.

He explains that accurate forecasts are “most needed” in the runup to potential record-breaking extremes, because they are the trigger for early warning systems that help minimise damages caused by extreme weather.

Leonardo Olivetti is a PhD student at Uppsala University, who has published work on AI weather forecasting and was not involved in the study. 

He tells Carbon Brief that “many other studies” have identified issues with using AI models for “extremes”, but this paper is novel for its specific focus on extremes.

Olivetti notes that AI models are already used alongside physics-based models at “some of the major weather forecasting centres around the world”. However, the study results suggest “caution against relying too heavily on these [AI] models”, he says.

Prof Martin Schultz, a professor in computational earth system science at the University of Cologne who was not involved in the study, tells Carbon Brief that the results of the analysis are “very interesting, but not too surprising”.

He adds that the study “justifies the continued use of classical numerical weather models in operational forecasts, in spite of their tremendous computational costs”. 

Advances in forecasting

The field of AI weather forecasting is evolving rapidly. 

Olivetti notes that the three AI models tested in the study are an “older generation” of AI models. In the last two years, newer “probabilistic” forecast models have emerged that “claim to better capture extremes”, he explains.

The three AI models used in the analysis are “deterministic”, meaning that they only simulate one possible future outcome. 

In contrast, study author Engelke tells Carbon Brief that probabilistic models “create several possible future states of the weather” and are therefore more likely to capture record-breaking extremes.

Engelke says it is “important” to evaluate the newer generation of models for their ability to forecast weather extremes. 

He adds that this paper has set out a “protocol” for testing the ability of AI models to predict unprecedented extreme events, which he hopes other researchers will go on to use.

The study says that another “promising direction” for future research is to develop models that combine aspects of traditional, physics-based weather forecasts with AI models. 

Engelke says this approach would be “best of both worlds”, as it would combine the ability of physics-based models to simulate record-breaking weather with the computational efficiency of AI models.

Dr Kyle Hilburn, a research scientist at Colorado State University, notes that the study does not address extreme rainfall, which he says “presents challenges for both modelling and observing”. This, he says, is an “important” area for future research. 

Limiting global warming to 2C would not ‘rule out’ extreme impacts

Climate modelling

|

25.03.26

Guest post: Investigating how volcanic eruptions can affect climate projections

Climate modelling

|

23.06.25

Meeting 1.5C warming limit hinges on governments more than technology, study says

1.5C

|

16.08.24

‘Striking’ new NASA videos show CO2 emissions rapidly building up in atmosphere

Climate modelling

|

27.06.23

jQuery(document).ready(function() { jQuery('.block-related-articles-slider-block_0e2fac0e80a354f94fe3c106441dde57 .mh').matchHeight({ byRow: false }); });

The post Traditional models still ‘outperform AI’ for extreme weather forecasts appeared first on Carbon Brief.

.entry-header{display:none;}

The post Tell the Insurance Committee Chair: We need the Insure Our Communities Act! appeared first on Stop the Money Pipeline.

Christopher Wright is the principal analyst at CarbonBridge, a decarbonisation consulting firm.

The Santa Marta Conference has rightly been hailed as a pivotal opportunity to re-imagine the world’s relationship with fossil fuels. However, the sixty-odd countries gathered this week represent only 15% of the world’s total fossil fuel production, and a small but critical handful of nations in attendance remain deeply committed to expanding their fossil fuel output.

While the discussions at Santa Marta have focused on overcoming economic dependency on fossil fuels, the reality on the ground for many of these countries is that fossil fuel production continues to rise. Despite the rapid global growth of renewable electrification, fossil fuel output has similarly increased.

• Apr 28, 2026 News Santa Marta: Ministers grapple with practicalities of fossil fuel phase-out Around 60 governments that want to make progress on transitioning away from coal, oil and gas are meeting in Colombia to work out how they can do it an equitable way Read more
• Apr 21, 2026 News Fossil fuel crisis offers chance to speed up energy transition, ministers say As climate diplomacy resumes in Berlin, ministers say the Iran war-driven fuel crisis is exposing the risks of fossil dependence Read more

This trend is evident even among the countries gathered at Santa Marta, where according to a CarbonBridge analysis, net fossil fuel production has grown over the last five years, particularly driven by expansions in oil and gas output.

Across all countries gathered in Santa Marta, approximately 14 countries are responsible for the lion’s share of oil production, which has increased by 4% since 2020. Similarly, just eight countries account for 96% of the conference’s natural gas production, which has collectively grown by 5% over the past decade. 

While coal production has seen a slight decline since 2020, recent production increases in Turkey and Pakistan, with renewed growth in Australia, could similarly see increased production in the near future.  

However, most surprisingly, only six countries present at Santa Marta account for over 80% of fossil fuel production among all nations in attendance: Canada, Australia, Brasil, Mexico, Norway and Nigeria. 

For these nations, the transition journey ahead is complex. All six countries are aiming to significantly expand renewable energy capacities, and Norway stands as a global leader in electric vehicle adoption. 

However, fossil fuel production is not merely a domestic concern for these countries; it plays a central role in their international exports, and remains a foundational pillar of their economic utures. In fact, a deeper look into trends and regulatory frameworks across this suite of countries indicates that their current trajectories are geared toward continued fossil fuel expansion.

Canada

In Canada, oil and gas production continues to climb, with 2025 marking a year of record highs. Oil production rose by 4% to reach 5.34 million barrels per day (MMb/d), while natural gas production surged by 3.4%, reaching 8.2 billion gigajoules. And only yesterday, Shell made a $13.5 bln bet on Canada’s oil and gas future.

Led by Prime Minister Mark Carney, Canada is set to implement an industrial carbon pricing scheme and could double Canada’s clean energy capacity over the next two years. However, he has also been vocal about his support for new oil and gas expansions, new pipeline developments, and has even set a goal to transform Canada’s largely non-existent liquefied natural gas (LNG) industry over the next 15 years, with aspirations to rival the production capacity of the US by 2040.

Brazil

Brazil’s state-owned oil company Petrobras has committed to a massive USD $109 billion expansion of their production to 2030. This hefty investment follows a record 11% production increase in 2025, with Petrobras pumping out 3.77 million barrels per day. Despite hosting the UN climate negotiations last year and generating 89% of the country’s electricity from low-carbon sources in 2025, Brazil’s drive for fossil fuel expansion highlights the gap between national climate transitions and critical export opportunities. 

Australia

Australia, the world’s second-largest coal exporter, faces a similar dislocation between its domestic electricity transition and its export economy, as it prepares to assume a leadership role at COP31. Australia is home to the world’s highest solar power per capita and leads the world in home battery rollouts. However, it remains critically dependent on fossil fuel exports, even as questions arise over long-term demand. Currently, gas export volumes, which dipped in 2025, are projected to reach record levels by 2027; pending legal action against the Barossa, Scarborough, and Browse expansions. While thermal coal production is projected to decline slightly through 2030, increases in metallurgical coal are expected to offset these declines, in part due to recent pro-mining regulatory shifts in Queensland.

Mexico

Mexico is one of three major oil producers that make up over 60% of the conference’s annual oil production. However, its oil industry recorded the largest output declines of any major producer in Santa Marta over the last decade. The state-owned oil company Pemex, currently carries close to $100 billion in debt, and was granted $12bn in debt support from the government last year. When combined with import shifts from the US, and potential competition from Venezuela, there is a real chance that Mexico’s oil production could decline further going forward. However, the goal right now from Pemex and the Mexican government, is to increase current production by close to 10% by 2030.

Nigeria

Nigeria’s national oil company, NNPCL, has similarly seen declines over the last decade, but is now pursuing a $60 billion partnership to expand its oil and gas output and solidify its role as one of Africa’s largest fossil fuel producers. This comes even as the federal government was granted $800,000 to explore opportunities to transition away from oil expansion last year. 

Norway

In contrast to these countries, Norway stands as one of the few major oil producers at the conference projected to decrease its fossil fuel output. With a forecasted 15% reduction in oil and gas production by 2030, Norway appears to be taking early steps toward a transition. However, the decline in production is more a reflection of the age of its existing oil fields than a proactive shift in government policy. Despite acknowledging the need to diversify its economy, the Norwegian government continues to explore new oil and gas fields, plans to launch new licensing rounds, and hopes to spur on further oil and gas investments, which have almost doubled since 2017.  

For these nations, the road ahead is fraught with complexities. While the Santa Marta conference offers an opportunity for dialogue, and renewable energies will undoubtedly continue to expand, the largest fossil fuel producers gathered in Colombia remain structurally focused on growth, rather than phase-downs.

Dollars and cents continue to drive economic decisions, especially in the midst of a global energy crisis. Despite growing calls to utilise this opportunity to reshape development pathways, countries most economically embedded in existing energy markets will need far more convincing, before turning their backs on billions in fossil fuel revenues.

The post Six nations at Santa Marta could shape fossil fuel futures appeared first on Climate Home News.

As the UK and EU debate how to source the vast quantities of electricity they’ll need to power their grand visions of home-grown artificial intelligence (AI), the gas turbine sector is confident that governments will soon follow the lead of the United States – by clearing the way for Big Tech to embrace natural gas.

“Sooner or later there will be a wake-up call for the EU”, said Francesco Ciccola of American gas turbine manufacturer Mitsubishi Power Aero.

DeSmog spoke to Ciccola last month at Datacloud Energy Europe, a tech energy conference dedicated to “defining Europe’s AI power strategy,” held in Brussels, Belgium. 

San Francisco-based Global Energy Monitor, a research and advocacy group that tracks global fossil fuel developments tied to data centres, says that Mitsubishi Power Aero is a major provider of turbines for the AI boom in the U.S.

“This new administration in the U.S., they give you a workshop of reality”, said Ciccola, a Europe-based sales director for the manufacturer, which sponsored the conference. “It’s typical, this buffer in time between U.S. and Europe, in everything.”

After the event, Ciccola told DeSmog that “Mitsubishi Power’s mission is to help create a future that works for people and the planet by advancing innovative power solutions that support decarbonization while delivering reliable energy.”

He added: “Any remarks made at Datacloud Energy Europe were intended to describe observed market conditions and customer demand, not to comment on or advocate for any political or regulatory approach.

“Mitsubishi Power Aero operates in full compliance with all applicable permitting, planning, and regulatory requirements in every jurisdiction where we do business. References to differences between markets were descriptive of timing and demand dynamics only.”

Across the U.S., President Donald Trump has championed fossil fuel-powered AI, while tech giants are planning, constructing, and operating their own gargantuan, energy-voracious new AI data center complexes with off-grid gas power plants.

Tech companies including Meta, Google, Microsoft, OpenAI, Nvidia, and xAI, are currently planning or building out fleets of gas turbines that will generate at least 23 gigawatts (GW) of electricity, according to an analysis by Cleanview – roughly twice as much as New York City uses.

This American AI construction blitz has come at an enormous cost to the climate, skyrocketing the tech industry’s carbon emissions and pushing one tech giant after another to abandon its climate pledges.
 
Is it now Europe’s turn?

Datacloud Energy Europe 2026 sponsors listed at the event.

Credit: Datacloud / LinkedIn

“I just think the American market is ahead of us [and] the same thing is going to happen here”, said a turbine sales representative from UK-based manufacturer Langley Holdings, which also sponsored the March 25-26 Datacloud conference and primarily sells to the UK. “It just will take a bit longer and it will be a bit harder because more people will be saying, ‘hang on a minute, we don’t want to be burning greenhouse gasses.’”

A sales representative from MWM, the European arm of U.S.-based gas generator manufacturer Caterpillar, who asked not to be identified, told DeSmog that the company – another summit sponsor – is “definitely” confident that gas-powered AI will be coming to the UK.

The representative said MWM is working on “numerous” projects in Europe and the UK, each capable of generating up to 100 megawatts (MW). The projects are “getting more concrete” compared to last year, they said, with “actual projects” materialising in Germany and the UK.
 
MWM and Langley Holdings were approached for comment.

The Datacloud summit came at a pivotal moment. The EU and UK are due to unveil new regulations that will dictate to what extent new AI data centres can construct off-grid gas plants to power their operations – and as gas turbine manufacturers report global order backlogs running to 2030.
 
Datacloud’s organisers promised that the summit – which involved tech sector and energy leaders, gas turbine industry representatives, and European politicians – would “influence billions in investment” and “reshape regulatory pathways.”

The result was a fierce two-day debate where high-level decision makers in the world of AI and energy fought over whether data centres in Europe will be rolled out with fossil fuels.

“We have to face the reality – there is a real risk of gasification for data centres,” said MEP Nicolás González Casares, a member of the European Parliament Committee on Industry, Research, and Energy. “We cannot gassify this sector. Data centres must become an enabler of the green transition.”
 
“No planet, no data centre,” said Neal Kalita, senior director of global power and energy at NTT Global Data Centres, the third largest data centre operator in the world. “Being a kind of a continent that develops a digital infrastructure that doesn’t destroy the planet is going to be not just a competitive edge – it’s an imperative.”
 
Powering Europe’s AI boom with gas, if governments allow it, could decimate net zero goals. A recent analysis by Carbon Brief found that if the UK relies heavily on gas to power data centres, the AI sector would emit 30 metric tonnes of carbon a year by 2035 – as much as the entire country of Denmark. Any increase in emissions will take the UK further away from its goal to cut emissions by 81 percent from 1990 levels by 2035.

The EU’s AI ambitions would demand up to 168 terawatt-hours (TWh) of power by 2030, according to projections by the Kiel Institute – equivalent to what Poland consumes every year. If powered by non-renewables, the report warns, data centres will be putting the EU’s climate goals “at risk.”
 
Will the gas evangelists win out? Europe is on the cusp of making that decision.

European AI Dash?

Both the UK and the EU have announced plans to triple their AI capacity – in the UK by 2030 and the EU by 2035. The pledges have set off a rush of data centre construction across Europe.
 
However, years-long wait times to connect new AI data centre projects to electricity grids have pushed many developers to try to skip the queue by requesting direct hookups to gas. In the last year, companies including Nvidia, Microsoft, and Amazon have pressured the UK government to approve fleets of private gas turbines and generators for their projects in Britain.
 
In that spirit, off-grid gas-powered data centre projects have begun to crop up across Europe in recent months.
 
Ireland, which has long embraced data centre development, is emerging as the canary in the coal mine. In 2024, data centres consumed 6,969 gigawatt-hours (GWh), 22 percent of the country’s total electricity consumption. Off-grid gas power is now rolling in to alleviate this energy crunch.

Subscribe to our newsletter

Stay up to date with DeSmog news and alerts

Email Address What content do you want to subscribe to? (check all that apply) All International UK Sign Up (function($){ $('.newsletter-container .ijkidr-us').click(function() { $('.js-cm-form').attr('data-id', '2BE4EF332AA2E32596E38B640E905619D07B21962C5AFE16D3A2145673C82A3CEE9D9F1ADDABE965ACB3CE39939D42AC9012C6272FD52BFCA0790F0FB77C6442'); $('.js-cm-email-input').attr('name', 'cm-vdrirr-vdrirr'); }); $('.newsletter-container .ijkidr-uk').click(function() { $('.js-cm-form').attr('data-id', '2BE4EF332AA2E32596E38B640E905619BD43AA6813AF1B0FFE26D8282EC254E3ED0237BA72BEFBE922037EE4F1B325C6DA4918F8E044E022C7D333A43FD72429'); $('.js-cm-email-input').attr('name', 'cm-ijkidr-ijkidr'); }); })(jQuery);

Last month, British off-grid power specialist company AVK, alongside data centre operator Pure Data Centres, announced the completion of the first data centre in Dublin powered by dedicated gas-fired turbines capable of producing 90 MW, enough energy to power 100,000 homes for a year. While AVK says the turbines could theoretically be run on renewable hydro-treated vegetable oil, currently they are running on natural gas as the “primary fuel”. Neither company has given a timeline for the turbines to transition off gas.

Will governments green-light European gas-fired AI projects? Campaigners are concerned about the gas turbine industry’s confidence at this prospect.
 
“The gas industry evidently sees [European] data centres as a growing market, which is a worrying sign of apparent government apathy towards the climate implications,” said Oliver Hayes, head of big tech at environmental campaign group Global Action Plan. “Using AI as an excuse to breathe new life into destructive oil and gas projects is neither welcome nor wise.”

Gas Powered, Government Approved?

There are indications that Britain may sign on to gas-powered AI, even if it spells calamity for its climate goals.

Future Energy Network, which represents UK pipeline operators, told The Times that seven data centre projects have already been waived through to hook up to the gas grid.

In March, the Labour government gave its approval for a proposed 300 MW gas-powered data centre campus in Wapseys Wood, Buckinghamshire to apply for planning permission as nationally significant infrastructure – which allows projects to bypass the usual local planning requirements.

There are indications that the European public doesn’t support this kind of development. According to an October survey by the campaign group Beyond Fossil Fuels, two-thirds of people in the European Union don’t want data centres powered by fossil fuels.

Europeans “do not want to shoulder the costs” of powering data centres, said Jill McArdle, a campaigner at Beyond Fossil Fuels. She added that the opposition of Americans to sharply rising energy prices “should serve as a warning for Europe.”

“The U.S.-Iran war is exposing European countries’ over-reliance on unstable and expensive foreign imports of fossil fuels”, said McArdle. “Yet Big Tech and the gas [energy equipment] industry are plotting to keep us hooked and grow their profits.” 

It may soon become clearer whether EU or UK lawmakers agree. The EU is set to release two new AI regulations in the coming few months: a new law that is expected to include provisions about renewable energy requirements for data centres, and a data centre sustainability rating scheme.
 
In the UK earlier this year, the Labour government launched an inquiry into the future climate impacts of data centres. Energy and Net Zero Secretary Ed Miliband has already said these impacts are “inherently uncertain.”

In response to a request for comment, Labour said that its recently-formed AI Energy Council is “exploring opportunities to attract investment and support the development of clean power for data centres”, and that the country’s designation of five “AI Growth Zones” is “driving these partnerships forward.”

This same council pressured the government last year to support off-grid gas for data centres in Britain.

So far, many data centre operators in Europe have avoided reporting their energy usage. A new investigation by Investigate Europe, an independent journalism group, has revealed that U.S. tech companies successfully lobbied the EU two years ago to keep information on the operations of individual data centres secret, including environmental data like energy use and carbon emissions. Only 36 percent of Europe’s data centres submitted any data to a 2025 European Commission report on their energy usage. In the Netherlands, Microsoft and Google have come under fire for failing to report the energy usage of their Dutch data centers to the government.

McArdle said that the UK and EU governments need to intervene to ensure the sector is held to account. “Only regulation and fossil fuel phaseout will protect Europeans from rising energy costs,” she said. “Otherwise, we will pay the price for the reckless profit-making schemes of Big Tech and the gas industry.” 

The post Inside the Plot to Cover Europe with Gas-Powered AI Data Centres appeared first on DeSmog.

This profile is part of an ongoing series that introduces members of CalCAN’s newly formed Stewardship Council. The Stewardship Council serves...

The post CalCAN Stewardship Council Profile: Thomas Nelson appeared first on CalCAN - California Climate & Agriculture Network.